Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Slumped | MLB & World Cup | 6/29/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | Slumped | MLB & World Cup | 6/29/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chase, the black coffee on the felt man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned the dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal mean
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something in somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: look at me.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on nothing nice.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: Now, hold on, hold on me, but it all get
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: the crown. Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: Stay with me. Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: with you toads. Still sports. It is Monday, June twenty ninth.
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: I have to have the Red Sox add on after
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: they won four games in a row for the first
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: time this season, which they'll never do it again, and
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: they happen to do it against the hated Yankees. So
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: I'm happy about that at least own three on the show. Yes,
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: I don't, dude, I don't even know what this. We're
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: on an own seven run. Do not listen to anything
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: that I have to say right now, do not don't Uh.
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: The under should have been correct in Seattle Cleveland that
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: was a four to one game in the eighth inning
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: looked pretty good. No, and then Seattle's bullpen, which is
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen, completely implodes. What can you even say
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: about that? You can't predict that. And I believe the
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: game went over in the first five too, because the
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: line was probably three and a half and I think
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: it was at four at that point that game that
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: should not have been a loser. The over in the
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: other game was probably a correct loser on I mean,
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: I was wrong about it on like it was correct
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: that we lost it the A's Angels. The A's hit.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: The Angels hit a grand Slam in the second inning,
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: so it was four nothing really early, so it was
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: actually looking pretty good. Aldegary pitched way better than I
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: thought that he would have, so that's really what kind
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: of ruined that play. And then the bullpens actually didn't
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: do bad either, which I mean, how do you predict
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: that Anaheim and the a Is combined like that, their
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: bullpens combined to allow no runs or one run or
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: whatever it was. I mean, come on. And then the
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: WNBA game was complete fucking bullshit. I'm so sick of
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: the fucking WNBA. After being five and oh to start
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: the season, we take two bullshit losses and now we
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: have another bullshit loss yesterday. Chicago. They had like fourteen
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: more field goal attempts than Vegas did in the game,
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: and they couldn't even cover a plus seven if you
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: have double digit field goal attempts more than your opponent.
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: And I think they won the rebound battle to or
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: at least it was close. You don't lose that game
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: by margin. You don't do it. It's just almost impossible.
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: Vegas was getting all the calls. Vegas went to the
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: line at least thirty two times they went to the
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: free throw line. They had more than double the free
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: throw attempts that Chicago did. And Vegas also shot like
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: more than fifty percent from the field, and I think
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: they hit almost half of their threes. There's nothing you
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: could do about that was the correct handicap on that game,
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: and it looks like it had. It looks like it
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: was not even close to being right, although Chicago want
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: up only being one point away from the cover at
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: the end, but if you look at the stats, it
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: was just an absolute It was complete bullshit in like
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: every way, Chicago did enough to win that game outright,
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: Like let alone cover based on the statistics. I'm so
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: fucking pissed about that. That was not the incorrect call
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: at all. I have no voice. I can't I can't speak.
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: I can't say anything. Macadoo. I don't know why you're here.
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: Why would anybody want to listen to me? I dude,
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to do with my voice. I'm
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: gonna talk about baseball. I don't even want to do this.
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: It's Monday. They're thirteen baseball games, and usually there are
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: like seven on Monday. Monday usually gives you a bunch
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: of good spots, at least because teams are changing venues,
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: changing series. You can get some situations that's set up,
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: but I don't like any of them except for one.
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna give out one baseball I'm gonna give out
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: a World Cup play too, and that's probably gonna be
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: a loser, even though five and one on the show
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: in the World Cup. So maybe I should be giving
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: out more World Cup plays, even though I don't know
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: anything about it all. Evening Baseball White Sox Baltimore is
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: the first series. I don't know how I'm gonna get
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: my voice back. By the way, Baltimore is staying at
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: home off losing to Washington. The White Sox are traveling
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: in from playing at home against Kansas City. What did
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: I tell you, Zach yesterday? I told you the Royals
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: could win that game, and they did so. The White
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: Sox are coming off of a loss yesterday. Usually it's
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: a good spot in your first game of the road trip, though,
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: because usually you are focused, especially coming off a bad loss.
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: So the spot looks fine for the White Sox here,
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: even though they're at a travel disadvantage. Baltimore used three
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday. White Sox used a bunch. They used five.
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: I don't like either bullpen here. Baltimore's ranked fifteenth and
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: Whip White Sox are ranked twenty. I think the White
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: Sox are actually the better bullpen here, but they're less rested.
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: I would not put much weight into either bullpen here.
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: I would not rely on them. The White Sox where
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: are they at? Hitting wise? They're somewhere up near the top. Yeah,
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: they're number six. White Sox are the better offense Orioles fifteenth.
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: That's arranged by ops. White Sox look like they have
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: a starting pitching advantage here as well. Sean Burke pitching
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: for them three point seven to one ERA, one point
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: two to one whip. Not bad. He is good on
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: the road three point six Roady Ray really good in
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: his last two starts, one against the Yankees, which is
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: pretty impressive on the road, and then less impressively, he
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: was pretty dominant against Cleveland last time out as well.
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: I gave out a winner on the show believe it
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: or not in that game on an under in the
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: first five I think, but full full game also would
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: have been correct whatever, back when I was actually making
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: winning plays. Burke against Baltimore has good numbers and thirty
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: nine at bats one fifty four average, four to eighty
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: one oh ps, eleven to five strikeout walk ratio, so
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: he does match up pretty well here. He's going up
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: against a guy that has the same initials as him,
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: Shane Boz. Boz, this does not look as good for him.
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: Four point three to one ERA, one point three to
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: eight whip. His whip is definitely too high. He's slightly
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: worse at home four point four to one homeie RA,
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: so the home road splits favorite Sean Burke here. Boz
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: hasn't been that bad over the last month plus, though,
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: He's mostly allowing pretty few runs in these games. He
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: did allow five last time out at Anaheim, but Anaheim
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: hitter friendly park, and he's still had five strikeouts one
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: walk there, So Boz. His command numbers have been better
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: over this past month or so. He's gotten his walk
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: number down. It's still kind of an issue though. His
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: hit rate is still too high slightly. His walk rate
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: is still a bit too high. Strikeout rate is not great.
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: Usually he strikes out more guys than this. I still
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: don't know how trustworthy he really is, even if he
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: is pitching a little bit better right now. Numbers gets
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: the White Sox not good. Only in fifteen at bats though,
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: so not a huge sample here for sixty seven average
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: thirteen to fifty six OPS, four to three strike out
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: walk ratio that is not great. So I have to
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: lean to the White Sox here. You're getting them as
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: an underdog here, and you know, I think they might
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen too. I think they do have
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: the better starting pitcher here. First five maybe makes more
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: sense if you want to just isolate the starting pitching
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: matchup and not have to trust either bullpen. White Sox.
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: First five makes sense. You'll give them as an underdog. Here,
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: Baltimore's minus one thirty something on the full game fifty ticket,
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: sixty seven percent of the cash on Baltimore. Money is
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: back in Baltimore. I have no idea why Total is
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: getting money on the over the total is high at nine.
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: That's kind of a high total, man, I don't know.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: Bookmakers seem to be kind of disrespecting both starting pitchers there.
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: I'm not so sure about that. My lean would be
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: Little White Sox slowly or slightly excuse me, SOB. What's
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: up Netherlands and Morocco draw? I don't agree with that.
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna I'm gonna talk about that. I don't like
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: the draws in these uh, in these knockout games either.
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: But Ivory Coast, what is that that's tomorrow? I haven't
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: looked at that game yet. I probably I don't. I
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: don't know about that. I'd have to look at that match.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: I don't know. No, uh, there's no reasoning to that,
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: Like just because it's a new month that means absolutely nothing.
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: It's just completely arbitrary. No, And also like we're getting
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: into the dog days of baseball where I typically start
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: doing bad in baseball, Like July and August or some
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: of my worst months in baseball. So do not listen
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: to anything that I have to say here at all.
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: Next game up is my only baseball play of the day. Dude,
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: I can't even I can't talk, like, I don't know
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: how I'm gonna get through this video. I don't know
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: what's going on with my voice. I don't know when
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: it's coming back. Like I need to not do this show,
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: Like I need to just not do the show for
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: probably at least a week to try to get my
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: voice back. I can't do this. Pittsburgh first five is
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: my only baseball play here. I think we have multiple
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: things going for us in this game. This is a
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: situational spot. Plus I like to starting pitching matchup here.
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: I will exclude the bullpens though, because I don't like
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's bullpen enough. They used only two guys yesterday, though
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia did use five. So if you want to go
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: full game here, you could do that and you get
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: you know, you get a cheaper price. But Pittsburgh is
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: the twenty second ranked bullpen. I don't want to back
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: them here. Philadelphia is twelfth in bullpen, so their bullpen
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: is okay, but I'm looking at the situation. First of all,
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia's returning home from a road trip, although they only
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: were in their division. I know they went to Washington
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: and New York whatever, but this is still it's a
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: road trip or turnspot. Nonetheless, they've been away for a week,
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: so you know, I like to fade teams returning home
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: from road trips. Usually it's a distracted spot. You have
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: to get back to home life. Now, maybe they do
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: pay attention to Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh has been a decent team.
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: But Pittsburgh's at five hundred right now, so they might
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: be overlookable here in Philadelphia's got a better record than that.
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: So Philadelphia is way above five hundred now, so they
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: might overlook Pittsburgh at this point. Pittsburgh, I think they
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: consider themselves to be the little brother here in the
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: state of Pennsylvania, so I think this series means more
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: to them. Pittsburgh salvage the last game of the Cincinnati
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: series yesterday. They're starting a road trip, which is a
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: focused spot. I like to play on teams starting a
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: road trip against the team returning from one, because I
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: think you get a situational advantage by doing that, and
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: I like the starting pitching here. We're gonna back Braxton
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: Ashcraft for Pittsburgh here, he's still going under the radar, dude,
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: Like Pittsburgh has schemes and whatever. Nobody talks about Ashcraft,
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: but he's got a three point oh seventy RA one
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: point h nine whip. He's like clearly their best pitcher
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: besides Skiens. He's been better on the road slightly to
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: two point nine to three Roady Ray. I know Pitts
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia is better at hitting at home, but I think
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: Ashcraft can handle them here. He's given up two or
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: fewer runs and three straight outings now. One was at
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: the A's Stadium, so that's pretty impressive because that is
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: a stadium where pitchers usually do not do well. And
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure I gave out Pittsburgh as a play
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: in that game too, so that was another win. Back
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: in better days on the show. Ashcraft had double digit
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: strikeouts last time out against Seattle, only allowed one run.
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: That's some pretty good stuff right there too. He's been
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: good man. He's allowed more than tour and runs only
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: once since late April. Overall low hit rate for him,
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: pretty low walk rate, too, in a high strikeout rate.
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: So he's got all good numbers across the board. Here
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: numbers against Philadelphia, you know, I mean, they're not fantastic,
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: but I'm still gonna back him here. Twenty nine at
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: bats against them, two seventy six average, seven thirty six OPS.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: That's still below that like ops threshold that I like
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: to look at. He's only allowed two extra base hits
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: to them, five strikeouts, two walks. Ashcraft is also better
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: now than he has been previously in his career. I believe.
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: He also did pitch once early in the season against
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: Philly and he did okay. Where is that game? That
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: was in mid May. He lowed four runs and six
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: and two thirds innings there, but he had five strikeouts,
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: no walks, so he was actually pretty good there. He
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: got a little bit unlucky to love four runs in
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: that one. He's going up against Aaron Nola, who just
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: seems like he has not been able to recover from
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: coming back from injury. Man, So I think Nola is fatable,
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: even though you're gonna look at his historical numbers and
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: they look good because he's been good throughout his career,
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: But you look at his numbers coming back from injury.
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: He's been way worse. This season's been pretty bad. Five
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: point five eighty array, one point four or five whip
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: not good. He's worse at home too, five point eight
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: two homie, I ra so we're gonna be on the
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: right side of his home road splits here. I know
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: he looks like he's been okay recently. He had an
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: okay start last time out against Washington. That's good, I
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: guess because Washington's, you know, a pretty good offense. But
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: his other only good starts recently were against the Mets
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: and San Diego, So I mean those are terrible offenses,
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: literally the bottom two offenses in baseball, so that doesn't
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: impress me. So I don't consider him to be in
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: good form here, even though his strike gout rate has
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: gone up, so that is at least a decent sign
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: he hasn't really been walking that many guys. But still
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: I don't like what we're seeing here. His hit rate's
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: still too high. Strike gout rate is actually high, though,
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: so that is maybe a sign that stuff is kind
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: of still there somewhere. Walk great is fine, I guess,
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: because numbers against Pittsburgh they're not gonna be that bad.
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: They're really actually kind of similar to uh Ashcrafts here
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: in this matchup. Although Nola is a lot of lower
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: to forty four batting average of similar seven to thirty
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: nine ohps. He hasn't exactly dominated Pittsburgh here. They have
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: one hundred nineteen at bats against him forty strikeouts, but
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: twenty four of those are azoona and seven walks. Uh
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: So he does have decent numbers here against them, but
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: nothing excellent, and the way he's pitching right now, I
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: don't trust him. Plus the situation, I like Pittsburgh. That
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: was the best I could find on the board today.
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: Money seems like it definitely agrees with me here. Philadelphia
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: has got sixty five percent of the tickets on them.
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: Public is gonna back Philadelphia due because they don't know
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: who Ashcraft is. Still, they're gonna back the team with
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: a better record in Philly, and I'm not gonna do that.
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: Eighty nine percent of the tickets on Pittsburgh. The full
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: game is around a pickhum price, So if you wanted
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: to go full game on this, you could do that. Pittsburgh.
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: I don't trust their bullpen though, that's the problem. Even
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: though they do have a bullpen rest advantage here at least.
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: Money's also backing the over eight and a half there,
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: but I don't have a good feel for the total
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: in that one. So I like Pittsburgh though, that's what
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: we're gonna do in that one. Also, I forgot to
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: go over Burke's season long numbers by the way for
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: the White Sox, but whatever. He's got a low hit rate,
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: his walk rates slightly high, and his strikeout rates right
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: around nine per nine, so he's been pretty decent. Texas
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: and Cleveland is an ESPN game. I don't really know why.
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: I think this was supposed to be Jacob de Grom
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: pitching the game for Texas, and it looks like they
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: pushed him back. I don't know if they're just giving
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: him extra rest because he's old. I don't know what
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: they're doing, but it's not gonna be de Grom, Like
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: this is gonna be an awesome pitching matchup with de
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: Gram and Messeck, and now it's not. And Texas looks
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: like they're going with a bull pen game here, so
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: that doesn't look as good. Cleveland is staying at home.
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: They just beat Seattle over the weekend. Texas is coming
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: in from sweeping Toronto, so Texas not a horrible travel
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: spot here for them, and they do have momentum, So
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: not really a situational edge that I can really see
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: here for either team. Cleveland used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: Texas has the better bullpen. They only use two. Texas
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: is ranked ninth in bullpen right now. Their e array
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: is higher than I would think that it would be.
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: I think that will go back down a bit. Cleveland
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: is eighteenth now. Their bullpening array has been creeping up
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: a little bit, but there's still a decent bullpen. Texas
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: is better, though neither offense has been very good. Texas
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: is eighteenth, though tied with the Marlins. Cleveland is twenty eighth.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: Really really been struggling, especially without Jose Ramirez. Texas is
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: going with a bullpen game now. Like I said, it
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: will not be to Grom, It's gonna be Tyler Alexander,
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: who does have a pretty solid stash here. He's not
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: that good. He's a relief pitcher, he's in his thirties.
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: He's got a decent era, but his whip is too high.
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: I don't really have a whole lot to say about
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: him because he's only gonna give you one inning. Probably,
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: I think he's gonna be an opener, and then Texas
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: is probably gonna just go full bullpen game here. It
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: looks like to me because I think de Grom just
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: got pushed back to tomorrow. Yeah, it looks like it'll
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: be de Graam tomorrow. So Texas just decided to rest
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: him another day or whatever. So, yeah, bullpen game from them,
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: and they're going up against Parker messex So Cleveland definitely
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: has a starting pitching advantage here. Messek has been solid
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: two points better than solid two point six seven e
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: RA one point zero five whip. He's been a little
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: bit worse at home two point eight to nine. The
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: ray is still obviously good. Nineteen strikeouts in his last
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: two starts in thirteen and two thirds innings, pretty good
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: against Milwaukee and the White Sox, so he was facing
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: some decent offenses there and still did really well. Messick
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: is definitely in good form again over those last couple starts.
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: He's got a really low hit rate, his walk rate
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: is pretty low as well. Strike cut rate is also high,
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: so again he's good across the board here. His numbers
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: against Texas, they're going to be good. I mean, Texas's
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: offense isn't very good, although they're better on the road.
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: To actually, Messik, his numbers are getting skewed because he's
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: allowed two home runs to them. They only have seventeen
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: at bats against him. Those are the only extra base
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: hits against them of those two home runs from Higashioka
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: and Sieger. He's held them to a two thirty five
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: batting average, though, But because of those two home runs
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: eight sixty six ops. But I'm not gonna put much
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: weight into that. I think the home runs are a
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: little bit fluky. Three strikeouts, one walk there on Messek,
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, on the season has only allowed nine home runs,
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: so he's not a guy that gets bombed by the
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: long ball. So I think more a lot more than
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: likely Messick should pitch well here. Even though Texas actually
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: does hit a little bit better on the road. I
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: would have to lean to Cleveland here. I think they
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: have the starting pitching edge. I think because Texa this
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: is going with a full bullpen game, I think that
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: kind of eliminates their bullpen advantage a bit too, So
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: I think Cleveland full game makes sense to me in
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: this one, Uh, money line makes sense if you're getting
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: below minus one fifty. Usually minus one fifty is my
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: cut off, and then I usually start looking at like,
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: you know, making a run line bet or something like that,
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: like part of it on the run line, part of
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: it on the money line. Cleveland's around minus one forty
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: something here. If you can get it in that price range,
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: it makes sense to me. I think to play Cleveland
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: on the money line here. Fifty six percent of ticket,
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: sixty six percent of the cash on Cleveland. Their offense
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: is definitely worrisome. Though this series looks like it's gonna
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: be a series where we could get some unders. I
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: would not want to do it. I was thinking under
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: with de Gram and Messic, but given this pitching matchup, yeah,
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: I can't really go with the under here, but it
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: could be an under. I mean, Cleveland does still play
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: a lot of low scoring games. This series looks like
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: it's gonna make for some low scoring baseball. And the
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: total is seven and a half here, so odd it's made.
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: They're kind of telling you that as well. All right,
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: Detroit and the Yankees. Yankees are in a bad spot.
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: They're returning home from the road. They went to Detroit
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: and of course Boston, and they got swept in Boston.
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: So I'm happy about that obviously. And if you didn't
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: see last night's game, it was insane. If you had
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: the under in last night's game, by the way, got
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: you took one of the worst beats that you'll ever
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: see in baseball. They have to get rid of the
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: ghost runners whatever. That was a game where there was
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: literally one hit in the game. I think through the
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: first six or seven innings the Red Sox had one
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: hit and Sonny Gray took a no hitter into the
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: eighth inning of that game, So there was literally one
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: hit in the first yeah, basically seven innings of the game,
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: and the game wound up going over. It's just absolutely insane.
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: It is absolutely insane that that happened. Gray lost as
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: no hitter in the eighth inning. He did really well
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: in the game. Red Sox obviously then went to Chapman.
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: He didn't have his best stuff, was pitching on his
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: second straight night. But will you're a bray you I
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: don't know what happened in that game. If you guys
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: saw that game, the Red Sox had to chew nothing
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: lead in the ninth inning, Chapman on the mound, he
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: put a couple of guys on base. He was a
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: little bit wild, but the Red Sox fielding just totally imploded.
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: I don't know what happened there. It was They had
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: a fly ball out to right field, which I think
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: was the first out of the inning. Will your a
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: bray you? It was runners on first A second A
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: bray you, who was a gold Glove winning right fielder
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: made the catch, and then he made the worst throw
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: you'll ever see. I don't know who he was throwing
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: it to. He threw it to nobody. He just threw
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: it up like somewhere between third base and home plate.
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: Didn't even throw it towards the base or towards a fielder.
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: I don't know what he was doing. And nobody fielded it,
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: and both runs scored for the Yankees to tie the game.
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: Absolutely ridiculous. So it wasn't all on Chapman. Even though
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: he put those two guys on he might have been
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: able to battle out of that inning. Still, I don't
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: know what that was. So I'm thinking the Red Sox
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: just lost this game, even though they were winning the
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: game two to nothing, and their starter had no hitter
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: into the eighth inning. And by the way, the Red
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: Sox did something historic as well. I guess during the series.
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: I think the Yankees, for the first time since like
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: the early to mid nineteen hundreds, had been held to
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: I think they had no hits in the first four
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: innings of three games in a row or something like that.
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: So this Red Sox started. Pitching has been really really
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: good even without Crochet, but the Red Sox offense has
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: been an issue. Their fundamentals have been an issue. Looked
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: like the fundamentals are going to implode them again in
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: that game, but the Red Sox battled out of that
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: last standing there went into the extra innings. Now, ghost
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: runner William Bray who makes another bad play in the
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: top of the tenth where he looked like he was
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: gonna make a catch and it was gonna be a
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: difficult catch, but he had it. It was like a
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: shoe string catch. He had it in his glove and
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: he didn't catch it. He dropped it. That was a
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: he's a gold glove fielder. That's a catch that you
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: you expect that he's gonna make it. Even though it's
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: a difficult catch. He had it in his glove dropped it,
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: so then the Yankees wound up scoring an extra run
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: because of that, so they put up two in the
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: top of the tent. It's four to two. I'm like,
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox just blew this fucking game, because of
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: course it's the fucking Red Sox. But no, the Yankees
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: going to the bottom of the tent, and what happens
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox they're able to play some small ball.
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: The Yankees make some fielding mistakes. Red Sox have some
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: small ball going on. Yankees fielding has made some mistakes
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: during the Series two. Jazz Chisholm wasn't even in there
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: because he actually got ejected late in the game for
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: arguing balls and strikes. That's that. You probably saw that
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: meme with the umpire camera with Chisholm in his face.
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: That I hate that guy, Chisholm. He's dude, he's such
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: a dipshit. He sucks at fielding too, He's he's just
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: not good. Anyway, Red Sox wind up taking advantage of
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: the fielding mistakes and the bottom of the tenth they
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: play the small ball and they wind up winning the game.
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: And my man Jared Duran maybe breaks out of his
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: slump with a game winning RBI single. It was a
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: situation where the Yankees brought everybody into the infield though,
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: because any ball that made it into the outfield was
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: gonna score the winning run because it was one out
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: with Yoshidah on third, I'm pretty sure. So at that
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: point you're like, holy shit, the Red Sox might actually
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: win this game. Don't fuck this up. All you had
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: to do is put this ball somewhere and play into
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: the outfield, and there you go, Jared duran line drive
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: into the outfield. Then they win the game. Anyway, the
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: game was insane. I'm happy about it. I'm not expecting
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox to do a whole lot here. But
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: after all that, my point is this is not a
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: good spot for the Yankees, coming off that crazy game yesterday,
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: a huge rivalry series, and a return home spot. So
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: my feeling on this was I'd be looking to fade
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: the Yankees here Detroit, though they're a really bad road
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: team Detroit and not good on the road. Detroit is
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: starting a road trip here. They'll offer some bad losses.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: They did just lose a series to the Yankees at
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: home before the previous series so there may be a
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: little bit of revenge on the mind of Detroit here,
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: and maybe the Yankees don't take them as seriously. Although
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: every game in that series was close though. Detroit's losses
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: in that series are by one and two, and a
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: lot of those games were low scoring. But that's kind
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: of where I wound up landing on this. Actually like
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: the under in this game more than the side. I
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: think both bullpens are capable. The Yankees used three relief
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday. You think they would have used more in
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: a game like that. Last night, they did use a
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: couple of their best pitchers though, so they might not
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: be available tonight. Detroit used four relief pitchers. Yankees I
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: think still have the edge and the bullpen their ranks six.
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: They have one of the best Bullpenny rays, So Bullpenny
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: Ray doesn't get like the ghost Runner doesn't count towards
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: your era. It's all just it's so ridicult due I mean,
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: it's not an Urn run, so again, it's just stupid baseball.
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: It's not even baseball. The ghost Runner fucked that Detroit
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: sixteenth in Bullpender. Their era has gone down recently, so
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: these bullpens are not bad. Yankees are down to number
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: three in offense. Now, oh man, the Pittsburgh overtook them.
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: Yankees have the better hitting though obviously Detroit is twentieth.
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: But I look at the starting pitching casey myies for Detroit,
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: I think he's not bad. I mean, his numbers do
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: look good. Two point nine to five ERA, one point
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: oh seven whip indicates that ERA is not really misleading.
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: He's not as good on the road though, four point
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: one to three road ERA, So that does concern me
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: a little bit with him, that he might have a
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: difficult time a little bit in the Bronx. He just
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: pitched against the Yankees in his last start in that
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: previous series. He wasn't great in that start. They wound
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: up only losing the game by one run. He gave
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: up all four runs that they allowed, so the bullpen
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: was completely clean behind him. But he allowed four runs
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: of five to two thirds innings, got hit around a
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: little bit, but his command was still there. He's six strikeouts,
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: one walk. So you look at that pitching line, that
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: isn't really that bad. Like his stuff looks like it
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: was still there. Myz on the season has one strike
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: up per ending that's not bad. Low hit rate, low
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: walk rate, you know, not bad at all. His numbers
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: against the Yankees, as I pointed out when he made
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: that last start, are actually pretty good. To twenty two
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: average allowed, six to forty four OPS, which now includes
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: that previous start, sixty three at bats, eighteen to five
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. So miz does have the ability to
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: pitch well here. I think he might. You know, Yankees,
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: they're in a return home spot. So even though the
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: Yankees are one of the highest scoring home teams in baseball,
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: I think maybe the highest scoring, returning home and coming
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: up a big series like that can kind of hurt you,
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. And by the way, facing
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox really damaged the Yankees offensive numbers. The
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: Yankees in their OPS they dropped from like seven to
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: seventy something to seven forty nine during that Red Sox series.
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: So Red Sox pitching is good. Uh, Yankees are going
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: with Ryan Weathers here, who is not their best pitcher.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: Obviously he's not bad though three point nine to five yr,
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: one point one four whip. He is better at home
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: three point five to two Homie Race. So the home
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: road splits favorite Weathers in this matchup. Weathers was good
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: last time out against Detroit. He allowed one er and
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: run in six innings. That was not the mis game,
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: I don't think. I think that was one of the
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: other games, but I might be wrong about that. He
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: was good though. He had six strikeouts, two walks, and
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: six innings. He was good to start before that against
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: the White Sox struggled three starts in a row prior
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: to that though. Weathers, though overall he's got a low
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout race, so his
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: numbers are pretty good here. He looks like he does
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: well against Detroit. You know, it is tougher for the
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: pitcher to have to face the same lineup twice in
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: a row, though, because that lineup might make adjustments to
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: that first time and be able to hit the pitcher better.
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: But he's been pretty dominant against Detroit in thirty seven
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: at bats, eleven strikeouts, two walks, one eight nine average,
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: allowed four to seventy four ohps. So I think this
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: game is an under Like I said, I think that's
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: the way to look at this game. Probably full game,
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: because the bullpens are all right. At least you are
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: getting seven and a half on this. I know the
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: Yankees did use Bednar and Cruise yesterday, so they did
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: use their better relievers, but I don't know. I'm not
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: too concerned by that against Detroit's offense. Seven and a
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: half being the total here, it's juice to the over.
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: So you might find an eight out there. Looks like
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: you can find an eight at the Lion m book there,
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: although seven and a half seven is the key number
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: rather than eight, So as long as you get under
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: seven and a half, it might be worth a shot
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: on the under here. But the money's back in the
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: over seventy two percent of tickets ninety two percent of
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. Again, obviously, I don't agree
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: with that. I think this is an under seventy eight
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets on the Yankees. The Yankees are getting
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: the public money. I think the public thinking Yankees are
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: in a return home spot here public still doesn't really
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: put much stock into Casey Miz Yankees minus one thirty
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: something here on the price looks somewhat cheap. I think
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: the public will think, well, they're back at home now,
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: they're gonna bounce back. I think that's the wrong way
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: to look at it. Though Detroit seventy three percent of
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: the cash on them, I would still agree with Detroit.
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: I might do it first five. Though if I was
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: gonna go with Detroit there, I would slightly lean to
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: Detroit money line verse five, But I think the under
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: is the better approach there. Under kind of correlates to
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: the underdog having value though, right, because if the runs
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: are kind of at a premium, that helps the underdog
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: a little bit. Zach, what's up? Did you take the
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: under yesterday? A bray you?
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: Maybe he bet on the over? Yeah, Gerald, what's up? Yes? Correct? Yes,
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: thank you for reiterating all the horrible stats recently. Yes, Baseball,
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: they have to get rid of the ghost runner. Dude.
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: They introduced it during COVID for no reason. It has
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: nothing to do with a virus, even though nothing that
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: was done at all had anything to do with a virus.
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: It wasn't even a lethal virus. Sorry, am I allowed
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: to say that? Now? I have no idea. I mean,
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: that virus didn't take me out, even though I had
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: it three times and I'm not that healthy. Well maybe
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: i am, I don't know.
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: And then.
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the ghost run dude, I don't get it. It's
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: supposed to make baseball quicker. Like, if you enjoy the game,
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: why would you want to have less of it? You
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: know what I mean? Like, let's introduce the pitch clock
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: and the ghost runner. Let's make baseball more likable by
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: making it shorter. What Like, if you like the game,
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: then you want the game to be a little bit longer, right,
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: if you enjoy it, you know, like that part of
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: the reason like for going to the baseball games, you
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: get to hang out in that atmosphere for you know,
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: that long of a period of time or whatever. And
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: extra endings used to be fun. They're not anymore with
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: the ghost Runner. All right, Mets in Toronto, I consider
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: putting this one on my card. And while I'm not
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: going to, but I think Toronto's in a good bounce
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: back spot here. They've lost six games in a row. Dude,
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: they just got swept in a four game series against
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: Texas at home and now they're staying at home. I
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: know Toronto's not a very strong team this year, definitely
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: a step down from what they were last year. But
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: you gotta think that they're gonna show up with some
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: effort here after what's been happening. To them recently, and
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: they have a starting pitching advantage here too, so Toronto
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: should be able to do this. The Mets are coming
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: in off a big weekend series against Philadelphia, so it
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: was a big divisional series. They're starting a road trip
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: though off a loss, so starting a road trip a
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: lot of times it is a focused spot. But again,
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: coming off a close game against Philly yesterday, and it
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: was pretty much a close series too, so Mets could
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: be in a bit of a hangover after that. Mets
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen here. They only us three guys
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: just today. They use Senga out of the bullpen and Myers.
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: They actually think it was actually a bullpen game for
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: them yesterday, but they didn't use any of their better relievers,
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: so the Mets high leverage arms are all available in
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: this game, so that should help them. Toronto used three
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen, including I believe either Viarland
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: or Hoffman is their closer right now. I'm pretty sure.
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: So they did use some of their better relievers yesterday,
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: so the Mets have a bullpen advantage. Mets are number
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: three in bullpen, Toronto's number and where are they? They're
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: not that bad they're thirteenth, so both bullpen's are all right,
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: but the Mets are better, and I think their rest
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: actually is a little bit better too. Toronto's offense has
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: struggled twenty second, tied with Philly, though Mets have been
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: even worse though twenty ninth. So maybe an under type
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: of series here, but I think Toronto is the way
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: to look in this game. Sean Manaia is supposedly getting
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: the start for the Mets. However, if I was gonna
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: play this game, I would not make that assumption. I
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: think the assumption that you can make is that mania
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: is going to pitch in this game, but the Mets
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: might put an opener in front of him, you know,
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: So that's the one issue there. Maniya will pitch, I
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: would assume, and he will probably go like a starter's
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: workload here, but he might be behind an opener, so
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: you do have to worry about that a little bit.
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: So we'll see if they do that or not. So
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: if I was gonna play this game, I would play Toronto.
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: I would actually go to Toronto first five innings because
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: the Mets have the better bullpen, and I would make it. Yes,
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: Savage must start for Toronto, but don't specify a Mets pitcher,
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean, because I'm pretty sure it's
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: either gonna be Mania or Mania after an opener, And
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: if you want your bet to count, you don't want
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: that to switch on you, you know what I mean.
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: I think Mania is probably fatable, though, I mean, he's
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: not really pitching that well here. He's been mostly in
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: the bullpen this year, though he's been okay in some
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: of his starts, but he's got a four point eight
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: to seventy RA one point four to one whip better
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: on the road though four point three to three. Roadyra
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: only went three innings last time out against the Cobs,
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: although he did have a few good starts in a row.
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: Prior to that. He was actually pitching mostly pretty well
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: throughout them off the June, so it hasn't all been
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: bad for him. Not excellent, though. He's got too high
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: of a walk rate still, that's always been kind of
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: an issue with him. His hit rate is also too
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: high here, and his strike gout rate is actually fairly good,
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: so he does still kind of strike guys out, which
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: is at least a decent sign here. I don't think
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: I trust him against Toronto necessarily, although he's held them
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: to a pretty low two thirty two batting average, they
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: do have a seven to forty one OHPS, which is
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: I know, it's still below that seven to fifty threshold,
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: but it's getting close. That's in fifty six at bats
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: against them. Fourteen to two strikeout walk ratio is pretty good, though,
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: but I think Toronto might be able to score something
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: off of him here, and it might be enough. It
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: should be enough, I think, to get you Savage, to
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: have him to give him the lead through five innings.
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: I should say ya, Savage is obviously the better of
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: these two pitchers, even though he's still young. But I
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: mean he's got experience. Man, he pitched in the World
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: Series last year. We've seen what he can do over
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: a decent sample. At this point, he's got a three
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: point five to six ERA one point one seven whip
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: this year. However, he is significantly worse than home though
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know why, but four point seventy three homey IRA.
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: That worries me a little bit. And the other thing
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: that worries me is his walk rate has been crazy
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: high recently. In three of his last five starts, he's
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: had five plus walks. That's not good. He's alternating like
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: wildness and control. That does worry me a bit that
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: he's been too wild here. He's got a really low
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: hit rate, but his straight his walk rate is actually
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: really high. He's got to do something about that. Man,
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: He's got to stop walking guys. His strike out rate
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: is okay. Can he do well against the Mets? Yeah?
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: I mean the Mets. They're not a great offense here,
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: and he's never faced them before, so that's an advantage
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: to him because when the OPO offense has not seen
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: a pitcher before, they usually struggle a little bit more. So.
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: I do like the met excuse me, I do like
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: the Blue Jays in this game. First five, that would
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: be what I would do, But you might have to
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: lay a half run if you do it that way,
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: which I know it's a little bit less enticing because
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: you need them to be winning at that point, but
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: I think they have the ability to do that. You
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: might not need to do that. Actually, because Toronto's at
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: minus won twenty something on the full game, so the
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: first five money line might be like in the minus
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: one thirties. So if it is, I think money line
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: could be the way to go there. First five Toronto,
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: they're getting the money seventy one percent of tickets ninety
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: three percent of the cash on them, so the money
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: seems to agree with Toronto there. I think it is
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: a decent bounce back spot for them too, you know.
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: Full game I don't like as much again because I
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: think the Mets bullpen does have an edge here, but
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: and I don't think this is not gonna be a
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: bullpen game for the Mets. Like Manaia just needs to
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: stick around for like four or five innings, which I
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: think he probably will do. The money is also coming
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: in on the under in the game, for what that's worth.
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: Under the eight and a half, I don't have as
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: strong of a reid on the total though. Washington and
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: Boston Red Sox are staying at home, but they're coming
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: off that sweep of the Yankees. You gotta think this
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: is a letdown spot for the Red Sox. I mean,
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: after last night's game, I was thinking, who are the
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: Red Sox playing tomorrow? You know, because this is like
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: such a fade spot. And by the way, I didn't
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: mention it with the Yankees, but Yankees Red Sox played
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: the night game, and you know, there's only one Sunday Night,
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: Sunday Night game, and it's a TV game. It's not
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: ESPN anymore, it's an NBC game. But still, that's a
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: huge game to come off of any other short turnaround time.
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: So it's a bad spot for both the Yankees and
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox. I mean, that's a huge rivalry weekend
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: series coming off the primetime late game with less turnaround time.
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: Red Sox just completed a pretty historic sweep there. They
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: had not swept a four game series against the Yankees
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: since I think like two thousand and eight or something
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: like that. Is that what I heard? Maybe I'm wrong
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: about that. Whatever, it was huge deal and hugely dramatic
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: way to win that series. Two. So I can't play
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox here because the spot is awful. But
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: then I look at the starting pitching and I'm like, dude,
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: that means you want me to back Miles Mikolas year.
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: I don't think I could do that, man, I don't
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: think I can. Uh. So I have to leave this
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: game alone because I think the Red Sox have the
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: matchup edge here with the starting pitching and with the bullpen.
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: But the situation is terrible for the Red Sox. So
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: which which one of those wins out the situation or
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: the matchup, I don't know. Baseball is heavily matchup dependent,
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: so I use heavy heavy situations and all the other sports.
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: In baseball, I try to use both, and I weigh
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: the matchups a little bit more heavily. So Red Sox
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen. Like I said, Number four, Washington
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: is not good at twenty six, and they have one
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: of the bullpens that has over a five YRA of
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: them right now, and they're one of them. Hitting wise,
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: Washington is way better. Their number four Red Sox are
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: twenty fifth, even after doing some offensive damage against the
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: Yankees over the weekend. But Washington's going with Miles and Micholis.
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: Like I said, he's obviously the worst of these two pitchers.
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: His whip isn't that bad though at one point twenty
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: nine is ERA five point twenty four not great obviously.
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: He is actually better on the road four point six
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: six Roady I Ray, so he's in the better of
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: his own road splits here. He was not great last
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: time out against Philly and they cut his start short.
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know what that was he only went three
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: and a third innings. He didn't allow any earned runs,
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: although he only had one strikeout. He hasn't exactly been good.
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: He did have one really good start in here this
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: month against Seattle, but other than that, he hasn't really
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: been going deep or when he does, he's been allowing
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: a lot of runs. So you either get he's out
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: of the game earlier. He gives up too many runs.
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: He's allowed too many hits. His walk rate is actually good.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: Though his walk rate is low. His strikeout is very low.
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: He doesn't strike anybody out. He does allow a lot
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: of home runs, even though he's not that much of
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: a fly ball pitcher. But the home run rate might
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: be a little bit of an issue in Fenway Park
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: because it is more of a home run ballpark. Boston
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: does have good numbers against him, so I don't think
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: there's any way you can back him here. Red Sox
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: have a three point thirty nine average against him nine
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: oh four ohps in fifty six at bats, six to
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: one strike on walk ratio. A lot of the damages
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: come from Wilson Contreras, who has a lot of at
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: bats against him from being in the National League and
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: He's been one of the hot bats in the Red
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: Sox lineup over the last few games. So again, you
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: could look at a player prop here with Contreras. I
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: always recommend hits plus runs plus RBIs over so then
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: if the guy walks, you at least can still get
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: a run out of it or something like that. But
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: he does well against Mikolas. I can't back Mikolas here
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: and Red Sox are going with Ron Jr. Suarez. He's
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: obviously the better pitcher here. Two point eight three RA,
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: one point one four whip. He's not as good in
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: fan way though, three point seventy five home he RA
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: still not bad though he's been pitching well over the
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: past month though. In the month of June, Yeah, good
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: stuff here. Twenty seven to six strike out walk ratio
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: two or fewer on runs allowed in all four starts,
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: five plus innings in all of them. One was at
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: Course Field and he had no problem with that. One
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: was against the Yankees. He pitched well there too. On
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: the road three roads starts, though only one home start.
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: The home start was actually a little bit less good
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: against Texas. So yeah, maybe he is slightly fatable at home,
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: but I don't think I want to fade him here.
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: He's got a good hit rate, it's low. His walk
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: rate's pretty low as well. Strike out rate is fairly high, too,
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: higher than I think you usually get out of him.
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: He's having a good season here, man. Against Washington. You
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: think they would have seen a lot of him because
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: he was on Philly, but they only have forty five
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: at bats against him. He's done really well against them,
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: one fifty six average, allowed three seventy four obs, fourteen
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: to one strike out walk ratio, only two extra base
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: hits doubles from Ruse and Young. So yeah, the Red
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: Sox look like they have a pretty significant starting pitching
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: edge here, plus a significant bullpen advantage. But the situation
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: is bad, and the money has come in against the
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: Red Sox. Seventy four percent of tickets on them, sixty
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: six percent of the cash on them minus won sixty
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: eight or so is the price on the Red Sox here.
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: I think part of the reason why the money's fading
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: them is the situation. Well, definitely that, but part of
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: it is also the number. Like just thinking the Red
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: Sox are favored by too much here, I don't know, man,
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: I mean odds makers are kind of having to do
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: that though, because the Red Sox do have a pretty
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: clear matchup advantage here. So I can't play this game.
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: I don't want to play on the Red Sox given
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: how awful the situation is. I don't want to play
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: Washington either, given this matchup here being really disadvantageous to them.
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: So which one is gonna win out? I have no
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: idea As a fan. I got a root for the
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: Red Sox, but yeah, I mean, I can't play the game,
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: so I have to stay away from it. Just things
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: strongly in conflict with each other, the ore, the things
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: that I look at. ESPN announcers, The announcers are all terrible.
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to tell you. Announcers are getting
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: worse and worse. And there are there are some female
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: announcers they think on the Red Sox crew now they
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: are absolutely atrocious. You have to get rid of them.
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: We need to go back to the good days. And dude,
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: it's a it's a man's job. I'm sorry, but like
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: it's like construction or something like that. Like men are
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: just better suited to this job. Men know about sports
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: and they know how to talk about sports. Leave it
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: to the dudes all right. Sorry? Uh. Cincinnati at Milwaukee.
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: This is a revenge series for Cincinnati here because Milwaukee
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: just went into Cincinnati and swept them last week prior
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: to the weekend series. Milwaukee's also coming off a close
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: game against the Cubs yesterday where they wound up losing
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: the series to the Cobs in close fashion, So could
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: maybe a little bit of a hangover spot even though
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee's staying at home. The Reds are at least probably
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: gonna have motivation here and maybe Milwaukee overlooks them a
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: little bit here. Reds are gonna come in probably with
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: some fire after losing them in a sweep last time.
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: That was a close series though, like if you look
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: at the game by game, Milwaukee won every game by
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: two or fewer runs in that series, so every game
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: was close. So Cincinnati does have the ability to potentially
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: win this game here. I don't want to bank on it,
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: but they will have motivation here. Cincinnati used four relief
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday, and that's one problem with Cincinnati is their
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: bullpen is bad. Milwaukee used four as well. Milwaukee not
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: very rested here, but Milwaukee has the better bullpen. They're
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: ranked fourteenth but I think they're better than that. Cincinnati's
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: ranked twenty eighth out of thirty. They don't have one
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: of the year ras it's above five, but Milwaukee clearly
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: has the better bullpen. Cincinnati's offense hasn't been good recently either.
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: They're twenty fourth. Milwaukee is tenth, tied with Tampa Bay,
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: so Milwaukee has an offensive edge. Year two, Cincinnati's going
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: with the more proven starting pitcher here, Nick Ldolo, but
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: he has not had a good season, so he's pretty
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: difficult to back here A five point five ninety IRA
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: one point five to Whip that's not good, although he
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: is actually better on the road four point three to
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: two Roady I Ray. Cincinnati plays in a hitter friendly park.
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: He's been better away from there this year, so he
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: might actually match up a little bit better here. He's
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: coming off a four inning shutout of Milwaukee, and I
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: don't know what happened in that game. I don't know
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: why he came out after four innings because he could
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: have gone longer than that. He was pitching really well,
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: so I don't know why they took him out. So
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: he might be able to extend that into this game.
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: Although Milwaukee just saw him, but they've seen him before.
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: He actually does have good matchup numbers against Milwaukee, and
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: in that start he also only allowed two hits, had
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: six strikeouts in one walk, so Lodolo was pretty good
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: in that outing. Although he does have a high hit
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: rate on the season, his walk rate is mediocre, his
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is kind of low. But again, against Milwaukee,
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: he does actually pitch well. He's held him to a
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: one to eighty two batting average of five to sixteen
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: ops and sixty six at bats sixteen to four strike
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: got walk ratio. So Lodolo does actually have a good
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: match up here, and he's in the better of his
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: home road splits, and that last game that he was
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: doing well was at home against Milwaukee, So I think
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: Lodolo could actually pitch well here given what we see
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: in those matchup numbers. There. He'll be going up against
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: Robert Gasser, who still I don't really know much about
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: this guy. He's twenty seven, he's been in the league
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: for a couple of years, hasn't really pitched a lot
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: in the majors. He's been okay four point five ERA,
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: one point two to seven whip three ERA at home,
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: so he's been better at home in a small sample
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: size here. Pitched really well last time out on the
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: road against Atlanta, although they actually hit worse at home,
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: but that was still a good outing from him. He
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: shut out Cleveland for five and two thirds. The game
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: before that out of Cleveland is very weak. Two starts
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: before that, he was really good against San Francisco. Also
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: another week offense, though, so I don't know how much
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: you really take away from this here. He's got a
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: pretty high strikeout rate, so that's not bad. His hit
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: rate is pretty low, his walk rate is not horrible,
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: so I don't know. Overall, he looks like a decent pitcher,
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: and his numbers against Cincinnati here not a huge not
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: a huge sample though most of the hitters have faced
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: him twelve at bats two fifty average, six oh seven
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: OPS three to two strikeout walk ratio. Gasser might actually
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: do pretty well here too. This game might look like
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: an under. I mean, it sounds insane. The total is
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: going to be fairly high here. It's at nine, and
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: the money's hitting the over seventy percent of tickets ninety
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: three percent of the cash on the over, so the
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: money is telling you over oddsmakers are kind of telling
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: you over with the line being at nine. But this
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: could be a first five under. Dude, I think it
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: could be maybe a sneaky underplay. And that last series
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: at Cincinnati, which is a more hitter friendly park, those
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: games are all low scoring, so maybe the under is
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: kind of a sneaky way to look at this. Oh no, sorry,
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: one of them went over. The last game went over.
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: The other two went way under, and the last game
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: was an extra endings. No, it was not the last game. Yeah,
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to say about that. The last
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: game had a lot of runs scored late in the game. Though,
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: first five under makes some sense because Cincinnati's bullpen is awful,
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: so first five under, actually you might get some There
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: might be some value there looking at a first five
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: under in that game kind of a sneaky way to
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: look at that game. Maybe I don't think i'd want
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: to risk it, but you know, I mean those pitchers.
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: Backing those two pitchers is kind of risky, but that
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: might be a way to look at that game. And
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: they both did well last time out against these same opponents. Right, Actually, wait,
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: did Gasser pitch in that series? Oh? No, Gasser didn't
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: pitch in that series. Lodolo did well in that series
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: before they inexplicably took him out. Gasser didn't pitch in
• 50:57
  Speaker 4: that series. All right, Yeah, women can announce ladies volleyball.
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, I lower the volume and just stare at
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: women's volleyball. So whatever, although although I kind of like
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: to hear them grunting, you know, you know what I mean.
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: San Diego and Chicago Cubs. Here, Cubs are coming off
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: that big weekend series and returning home from the road,
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: So not a good spot here for the Cubs. They're
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: in New York and then Milwaukee. I know it's a
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: short trip back to Chicago from Milwaukee, but they're coming
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: home still from the road. Bad spot. A lot of
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: times you get distracted. And they just beat Milwaukee the
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: last two games, so it could be a letdown spot
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: for the Cubs here. Those are big wins. I don't
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: know if i'd want to back San Diego either, though,
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: because they just played a weekend series against the Dodgers
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: and now they're having to travel across two time zones.
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: But they are starting a road trip, so it is
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: still a better spot for San Diego to just get
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: out of home start the road trip, focus on baseball.
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: But yesterday, you know, close game against the Dodgers for
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: the Yesterday could be a little bit of a difficult
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: spot for them. Still spot is still worse for the
• 52:04
  Speaker 4: Cubs here though. Bullpen wise, San Diego has the better bullpen.
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: They used three guys out of their bullpen yesterday. Cubs
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: used a lot. The Cubs used six. I think they
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: went they went with a bullpen game yesterday. That's a problem.
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: Cubs have a lot of pitching injuries right now too.
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: Cubs are tenth in bullpen right now, not too bad,
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: but San Diego is basically an elite bullpen. They ranked seventh,
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: but I think they're like the second best bullpen behind Atlanta,
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: and that is where their ray puts.
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: No.
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: They're Ei Ray's third behind Atlanta and the Red Sox,
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: but there's I think they're the second best bullpen. San
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: Diego has been atrocious offensively though they're dead last thirtieth.
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: Cubs are seventh, tied with the A's. Cubs have been
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: a good offense most of the season. This is in
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: Wrigley Field and it's a very high total, so that
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: means the wind is blowing out at Wrigley the total
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: being an eleven and a half. That tells you what
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: you need to know. Man, are eleven actually here? Even
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: with ima Naga on the mound, the total being eleven
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: and a half is just crazy. That's crazy, dude. Imanaga
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: kind of getting disrespected in the market right now though,
• 53:09
  Speaker 4: but he's had a bunch of issues with the home
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: run ball. It looks like San Diego's undecided with their
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: pitcher right now. Ima Naga will pitch. I still like him.
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: I still think he's better than his ra makes him look.
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: Four point four ERA, one point zero five whip is
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: obviously pretty good. He's not putting guys on base at
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: a high rate. He struggled at home though, four point
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: seventy five home he ray. The long ball has been
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: really bad for him. He is a fly ball pitcher,
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: but he hasn't had this many issues with home runs before.
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: That's his one issue. He's allowed twenty home runs in
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: ninety two innings. I don't know what the deal is
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: with that. His hit rate is really low, his walk
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: rates low. His strikeout rate is fine. So he's been good,
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: except the home runs have just destroyed his numbers. He's
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: got to stop allowing home runs, man, I don't know
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: what the deal is with that. Yet he didn't allow
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: any when he just pitched a course field, so I
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: don't know. He is pitching a little bit better, although
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: he allowed three home runs last time on against the Mets,
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what to tell you, man, even
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: though his command was pretty good in that outing. What
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: do we do with this guy? I honestly don't know
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: at this point. He should have a good match up
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: here against San Diego and this is a weak offense.
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: He should be able to deliver a good start here.
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: He's got a one to eighty four batting average against
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: with them for a six point fifty nine OPS. Those
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: are low numbers there, forty nine at bats fourteen to
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: three strike out walk ratio. They've had three home runs
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: off him though, so the home run ball has kind
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: of hurt him against them too. But his numbers are
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: good against San Diego and they're not an offense that
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: really takes much advantage of pitchers, so he should pitch
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: well here. Uh san Diego's though it's a bad spot
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: for the Cubs though, like I said, san Diego's going
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: with it looks like they might be going with Griffin Canning.
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: And you guys made fun of me for saying that
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: Griffin Cannoning was gonna pitch in the last game that
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: he pitched. He did I told you. I told you.
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: He's in their rotation. Basically, they a lot of times
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: they put an opener in front of him. So that's
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: somebody keep in mind here. He's gonna pitch. He's pitched
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: on schedule for like two months now. He's been pitching
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: every game when he comes up in the rotation. So
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: he's going to pitch here even though he sucks. San
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: Diego doesn't have really any other option here. They're gonna
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: put an opener in front of him possibly. So that's
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: what you have to look at with this game. So
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: if you're gonna play this game, assume that Canning is
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: going to make like a start here, but they might
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: put an opener in front of him, right, So, just
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: like I said with Manayah and the Mets, if I
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: was gonna play this game, I would specify Imanaga must start,
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: but don't specify San Diego's pitcher because you know it's
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: gonna be either Canning or an opener. With Canning coming
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: in behind him, and Canning has been really bad. We
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: got to dig into their roster and even find him
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: because he's not even on their depth chart. He's got
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: a seven point three eighty RRA, one point six to
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: six whip. He's not a good pitcher, really bad on
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: the road. So take him away from San Diego's pitcher
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: from them and he's really bad. Nine point five six
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: roady IRA. He was awful last time out at home
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: against Atlanta. They brought him in after an opener. He
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: didn't even last a full inning. He allowed four runs
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: and they took him out. They were like, yeah, that
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: was enough. He's not doing well at all here. He's
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: got a good strikeout rate though, believe it or not,
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: but his hit rate is high, as walk rate is
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: really high. So he's got some major issues with putting
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: guys on base. Numbers against the Cubs, you pretty much
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: know they're not gonna be good too. Eighty bats, somebody's
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: gonna be surprised. But to eighty average allowed eight sixty
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: seven ops. Not good numbers. Maybe not as bad as
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: you would think, but not good. Fifty at bats. They're
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: nine to four strikeout walk ratio, So the Cubs are
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: in a bad situational spot here. Both teams somewhat are
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: though I think I have to lean towards the Cubs
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: here though like their pitching matchup, it looks like they
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: have an edge at least in the first five. I
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: think I would not go full game here, but if
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: you isolate Andaga against Canning, I think you should be
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: able to get a win out of that. Although I'm
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: not gonna give it out as a play, so I
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: don't love it that much at all. But seventy seven
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets, fifty nine percent of the cash on
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: the Cubs. The money's fading the Cubs here. Some of
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: it is because of the San Diego bullpen those like
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: because that's a full game number there. Some of it
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: is that Ima Naga hasn't looked good recently. A lot
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: of it is probably the situation. But I see no
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: way that you can back Canning here. Cubs are at
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: minus one fifty or so. Cubs first five makes some
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: sense to me. But you know what, because the money's
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: heavily coming in on the over here, the os Vigers
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: are telling you there's they're expected to be runs here.
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: You could go Cubs over their team total here they
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: might be able to get there, Like if they tee
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: off on Canning and then San Diego has to bring
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: in some of their worst bullpen arms earlier in the game,
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: you know, it kind of negates the bullpen edge they
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: have a little bit there. Cubs over team total make sense.
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: But I still worry about the return home spot because
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: I think the return home spot can kind of distract
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: the hitting a little bit and cool off the hitting
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: a little bit. So that would still worry me a
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: little bit. But again, the total being at eleven, that
• 58:08
  Speaker 4: tells you that Wrigley Field, you got wind blowing out
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: in Wrigley. The win is a factor in Wrigley unlike
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: it is in any other stadium because it's right on
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: Lake Michigan, so we're really close to it. So yeah,
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: Cubs over team total might actually be the best way
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: to look at that game. All right, I'm gonna be
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: right back. I'll finish off of the rest of the
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: board when I get back. Usually I do a few
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: more games and then do it, but I usually do
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: it with five games left, and there are four baseball
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: teams off today, I think, so maybe six, I don't know.
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: I know, Tampa Bay is one of the teams that's
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: off today. But whatever, I'll be right back and then
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna talk about no WNBA today, thank god WNBA.
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: We'll talk about the Cup game tomorrow, but WNBA they
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: get the half of the week off. All the teams
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: are off except for the Cup game tomorrow. They're all
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: off from Monday through Thursday or something. And I'll talk
• 59:02
  Speaker 4: about the World Cup as well. I have a World
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: Cup play actually, so I'll be right back. All right,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: I'm back. It looks like we have a Wimbledon on here.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 4: It looks like here. I think this might be live.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: I think it's live on IVSPN on. I don't pay
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: much attention to tennis, but uh Sinner the number one
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 4: men's players playing right now, and it looks like he
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: lost the first set in this match against uh Kekmanovich,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: some Serbian I've never heard of. I have no idea,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: but yeah, interesting that Sinner lost the first set, although
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: he's probably gonna win the match anyway. He got knocked
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: out of the last Grand Slam tournament though, which was
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: what was that? I don't even remember when each one
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 4: is during the year, was it the French Open? Maybe
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: I forget. I don't know whatever it was. He got
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: knocked out of it though, all right, and I thought
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: that he had been overtaken. Actually it was like Center
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: is ranked number one again. But I thought he got
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: overtaken by al Cairoz whatever. His name is Alcatraz, the
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: Spanish dude. I don't know, all right whatever. Minnesota Houston
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: Houston is another team returning home from the road. They
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: went to Toronto and Detroit. They had a good road trip.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: They won both series, including three out of four in Detroit.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: Now they're returning home again. I will say it's a
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: negative spot when you return home from the road. You
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: got to get back to home life. It could be
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: a distraction. So that should help Minnesota here. Minnesota just
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: beat Colorado and now they're starting a road trip, so
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 4: it should be a focused spot for them again. Another
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: team starting road trip here. Do I want to back Minnesota?
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: Hear though? I mean I would not want to back
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: their bullpen, I'll tell you that much. So if you go,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: if you go with a side here, you don't want
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: to include Like if you go with Minnesota on the side,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: you do not want to include their bullpen. Minnesota only
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: used three guys out of it yesterday. Their bullpen is awful.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: Houston use five. I don't know if I would really
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: trust their bullpen either, although they've been better Houston's up
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: to nineteenth now Minnesota's been awful. They're twenty ninth, but
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: I think they're the worst bullpen. Their ERA is worse
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: than Kansas City's and their whip is almost the same.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: These are both really bad bullpens. I mean, Minnesota and
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: Kansas City are Houston's is oh. I don't want to
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: say Houston is even okay, because I still think they're
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: kind of bad, but Minnesota is like disastrously bad. Houston's
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: offense has been a little bit worse recently. They were
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 4: twelveth Minnesota ninth. But these teams could definitely hit. However,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: I kind of like both these starting pitchers in a way.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: Zebulon is pitching for the Twins. Zebi Matthews four point
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: five six ERA not that good. His whip is not
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: too bad though, one point two. He's not been good
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 4: on the road though, seven point three to three Roady Ray,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: so usually you want to back him at home the
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: way things stand right now. Did well last time on
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: the road, though against Texas, but of course a lot
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 4: of pitchers do well in Texas, but not everyone. So
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: he was good in that start. Most of his good
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: recent starts have been at home, though. Pitched well last
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: time out against the Dodgers, but got no run support
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 4: and lost that game. He's in pretty good form right now,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 4: and then if you look get his overall numbers, hit
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: rate is alright, his walk rates low. His strikeout rate
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: has gone down though. He did have a good strikeout
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: rate for a while, but this month his strikeout rate's
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: gone way down. So I don't know what the deal
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: is with that, because he is a decent strikeout pitcher,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: I thought, so I don't know. I still think he
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 4: has decent stuff, though. I think maybe he is back
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: up on a spot like this, but he's not good
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: on the road, so that worries me. Houston has a
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: two point fifty average against him, six eighty eight ohps
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: and sixteen at bats. The one extra base hit is
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 4: a home run from Parade as two strikeouts, no walks
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 4: against Houston there as a whole the spot does a
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: favorite Minnesota, though, so you know, you could be looking
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: in Minnesota first five here. I probably wouldn't even disagree
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: with that Minnesota first five if you just want to
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: play on the spot, you know. But Matthews on the
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: road does worry me. Peter Lambert on the other side
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 4: for Houston, fading him would worry me a little bit too,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: because he's been pretty good. Three point two eighty ra
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 4: one point one to seven whip. You know, finally that
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 4: he's not in Colorado's organization anymore. He's pitching well. He's
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 4: a little bit worse at home, but not bad. Three
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: point four home era. Wasn't really great last time out
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: on the road against Toronto, but he was pitching well
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 4: before that. He had like a bunch of good starts
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: in a row prior to that, so that looks like
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 4: more of a fluke than anything else. He's got a
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: low hit rate here is walk rde is a little
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 4: bit too high. Strike got rate is okay, So overall
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: he's got alright numbers here. His numbers against Minnesota, they
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: really just haven't seen much of him. Only two of
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 4: their hitters have ever faced and they're three for six
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: of the home run and a strikeout and no walks.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 4: But all the hits are from Josh Bell, so they
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: have one guy that's on damage against, but how much
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: weight do you put into that, you know, Plus I
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: don't think that was this year either, So Lambert is
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: pretty unfamiliar to Minnesota, so I think he could pitch
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: well as well. So I actually think this game might
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: actually be more of a first five under. I would
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: not go full game on that, because obviously you're looking
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: at some bad bullpens. This Minnesota's bullpen is unbackably bad,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: like just horrible, and the money is back in the
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: over here, and the total is pretty high at nine.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: But I you know, I said this about one of
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: the other games, so I forget which one, but you know,
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: it could be one of those kind of sneaky first
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: five underplays the where I kind of like both starting
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: pitchers a bit there. So five under I wouldn't really
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: disagree with that there, and first five Minnesota. Minnesota does
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: seem to be getting the money seventy three percent of tickets,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: sixty seven percent of the cash on Houston, they're around
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: minus one thirty something here. That would be mostly a
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: situational play though if you did that, but Minnesota first
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: five money line, you know, I'm not really gonna disagree
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: with it, all right, Miami and Colorado. Colorado is returning
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: home only from a single series road trip to Minnesota,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: but it is still a road trip return spot, you know,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 4: not the worst road trip return spot because it wasn't
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: a long road trip, but still maybe they'll be a
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: little bit distracted coming back home. Miami was pretty good
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: for a bit, but they did just lose to Saint
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 4: Louis yesterday after winning the series. Prior to that, Miami
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: has been playing pretty good baseball recently. Though. The last
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 4: time they lost to win streak, they bounced right back
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: and won against Texas, and they are continuing a road
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: trip here but going into elevation. You know, I don't
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: know how Miami is going to react to that, because
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: Miami plays in a much more pitcher friendly park and
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: they're coming off of playing against Saint Louis, which is
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: also a much more pitcher friendly park. Miami only us
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: one relief pitcher yesterday. I thought they were going with
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: a bullpen game. I don't know what they did yesterday,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: but they saved their bullpen, and their bullpen is way
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: better than Colorado's. Colorado used three guys out of their bullpen,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: but Miami's got a good bullpen. They're ranked second in WHIP.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 4: They're one of the top several bullpens. Colorado is one
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 4: of the bottom several. They're one of the four that
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: has above a five ERA twenty seventh not good. Oh,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: by the way, I think Zach I think his Kansas
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: City Royals are one of the teams that's off today too.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: Speaking of horrible bullpens, Colorado they've been good offensively recently. Again,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: they're number five in offense, so they're hitting well. They
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: do have some young talented hitters there on that team.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: Miami not great offensively at eighteen, so Colorado probably is
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: the better offense here. But Miami has the better starting
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: pitcher here with Sandy Alcantra, even though again he's not
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: what he once was. He's not that ace caliber pitcher anymore.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: He's pitching alright this season though. Four point oh one ERA,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: one point two to four whip not too bad. Not
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: good on the road though, four point nine to seven
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: Roady I Ray, and you have to worry about how
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: he's gonna handle course field. He's a little bit of
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: a fly ball pitcher, but not that extreme, so maybe
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: he will do okay here. He hasn't allowed that many
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: home runs this season, so he might do okay in
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: course field. He pitched against Colorado at home first game
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 4: of the season way back in March, excuse me, and
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: he did really well in that outing give up norn
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: runs in seven innings. He was really good in that one.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: But this is a different animal course field still. To me,
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: the indicators are that he is still gonna probably pitch
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: okay here. His hit rate is right around one per inning,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: which you'd like to see be a little bit lower
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: about whatever. He's got a pretty low walk rate, but
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is way low, so his strikeout stuff
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: just doesn't exist anymore really, Although he's actually been really
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: good this past month the month of June, Miami's won
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 4: all five of his starts. He's allowed three or few
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 4: earned runs in all of them, and he's faced a
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: couple of good offenses in there too. He's got at
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: least six innings in all of them too, and twenty
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 4: nine to six strike out walk ratio and thirty four
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 4: and two thirds innings thirty hits a lot, so those
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: numbers are all good. So he is in pretty good
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 4: form right now. And his numbers against Colorado as a
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 4: whole are good. Fifty five at bats, two hundred average,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 4: allowed four to forty six oh ps, eleven to two
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio, only one extra base hit a
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: double from good men, not slid, good men, Hunter, good men.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Ocontra looks like he should pitch alright here.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: Colorado was undecided for a bit, but it looks like
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 4: they are gonna go with Sean Sullivan here, my guy
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: from Massachusetts, although he has not pitched well. He's really young,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: so he might turn this thing around. But as of
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: right now, he's not pitching well. Eight point two five ERA,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: one point nine to two whip that's pretty bad. He's
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 4: been better at home somehow, five point four home he
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 4: are in course field, but it's a small sample size.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: You know why that was because he pitched against the
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: Red Sox at home and he wasn't even good in
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: that start. He walked five guys. The Red Sox just
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: couldn't take advantage of it. So he's not really pitching
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: well at all. He's gone twelve innings so far. Granted
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: he had to face the a Yeah, the A's and
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 4: the Cubs on the road in his first two starts.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: That was not easy. And he didn't give up any
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: runs against the A's in three innings. But overall, he's
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 4: got twelve innings, sixteen hits allowed, eleven runs allowed, in
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: a seven to seven strike out walk ratio. And he's
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: really fly ball heavy, so that is not good if
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 4: you're pitching a course field. Yeah, the Red Sox just
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: are not a good home run hitting team, so yeah,
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 4: he might be in for it a little bit here. Man,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I don't think I could trust Sullivan here.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: Numbers do not look too great to me overall, nor
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: does his style of pitching like a guy that's a
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: flyball pitcher. I don't know why Colorado would want him.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: He does have one advantage, though, which is that Miami's
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: never seen him before, so there is that. And Miami's
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: not exactly a great offense, so he's faced two offenses
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: that are much better than Miami and one offense that's worse.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 4: I don't know what you're gonna get out of Sullivan here,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: but I think probably you got to look towards Miami here.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: It almost looks too easy because the price is like
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: minus one thirty or so here minus one thirty six.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 4: Really money looks like it's back in Miami along with
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: the public. Though seventy eight percent of the tickets ninety
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 4: five percent of the cash on Miami, so the money
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: seems to be backing it. The money's also playing the
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: over eleven and a half here. I don't think I
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: would do that though, don't really know exactly what's gonna
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: happen here, but I think Miami might be the better
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: way to play it. I mean, you're still getting Colorado
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: in a return home spot, and a lot of times
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: bad teams don't respond well to a bad spot like that.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: Like playing a favorite in a spot like that, tends
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 4: to be a good money maker in baseball, like overcome,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 4: even like the juice that you have to pay on it. Plus,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 4: I think you're getting the pitching edge throughout this game.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: Miami has the better starter and the better bullpen here.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 4: So that's the way I look at that game. ESPN
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: Unlimited has Anaheim in Seattle. Seattle is returning home from
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: the road, so another negative spot here. They're in Pittsburgh
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 4: and Cleveland, so they're returning home from the Eastern time
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: zone going back west. You know, I talk about that,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 4: it's a big negative. You have to return back to
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: the Pacific coast. You have to readjust to the Pacific
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: coast time and play a late night game. It's gonna
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: be really late based on your biological clock. That is
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: not doing Seattle any favors here, and Anaheim is staying
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: in the Pacific time zone. Anaheim was just at home,
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 4: so easier travel spot for them, even though they're having
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 4: to go up the coast to Seattle. They're staying in
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: the Pacific time zone. So Anaheim has a better situational
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 4: spot here, and starting a road trip usually a positive,
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 4: so it seems like I should be playing Anaheim here.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: The problem is Seattle has a huge pitching edge here,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: so that's you know, that's one of my concerns, and
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: that includes their bullpen. Seattle's bullpen is significantly better, but
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: they did use four guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 4: but still they're the better bullpen. Anaheim's bullpen is not good.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: Anaheim's three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Anaheim is
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 4: not one of those five plus ERA bullpens, but they're
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: twenty fourth. They're not great. Seattle is only ranked seventeenth,
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 4: but their ERA is better than all these teams near them,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: which I feel like I keep saying that, but I
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: think Seattle's like a top ten bullpen. But they're on
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: my bad side. They're on my shit list. After they
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 4: totally blew that under yesterday, the under was gonna come through.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 4: It's like, you gotta just rely on Seattle to shut
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: down Cleveland's horrible offense, and Seattle can't even do that.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: Seattle allowed five runs to them in the eighth inning
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: or something like, what are you doing, dude? One of
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: the better bullpens in baseball can't can't hold you know,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: one of the worst offenses in baseball to fewer than
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: five runs in the eighth inning. Really really, although I
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: think to cash the under, I think they had to
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: allow maybe one fewer runs than that, But still the
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 4: under was going to happen until they completely blew that. Anyway,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 4: I'm mad. What are we talking about here? Oh yeah,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 4: the hitting. Seattle has not been hitting well. They've had
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: some offensive injuries to their rank twenty sixth here right now.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 4: They did get cal Raley back, but they got some
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: other guys on the injury list year. Anaheim is seventeenth,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 4: so they've been pretty mediocre. Anaheim hits a lot of
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 4: home runs, but they don't hit for contact very well.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 4: That's basically their hitting style. Anaheim's going with Ryan Johnson, though,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: I don't really know if you can back this guy. Dude.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: He's got an eight point eight four Era seven whip
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: that would be insane one point seven to one whip.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: He's only twenty three, so he might be able to
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 4: turn this thing around. You know, he might be good,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: which is why they keep putting him out there, but
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 4: he hasn't been good so far. He's gotten eleven point
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 4: eighty eight Roadie Race, so he's been really bad on
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: the road. Although he's facing Seattle, which is gonna be
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: one of his easier matchups, probably because it's a very
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 4: hitter friendly park and Seattle hasn't been hitting well. Johnson
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 4: also was really good in his last start at home
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: against Baltimore. He went six innings in one hit, shutout
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 4: them with eight strike outs in one walk. So maybe
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: Johnson is better than people think. I mean, that was
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: a really good start, but I don't know how much
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: weight we should put into that because he was really
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 4: bad until that starts. I don't know. Maybe he's starting
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: to figure things out though, and he's starting to pitch better,
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 4: No idea, he's really a wildcard right now. He's got
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: a high hit rate, a strike out rates is not
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: that impressive. Walk rate is also not very good. But
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 4: again his last outing really really really good stuff in
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 4: that one, including the eight strikeouts and six innings, So
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 4: maybe he is good, just hard to gauge right now.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 4: Seattle has basically never seen him, but they have three
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 4: guys who have seen him. They are two for two
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: against some of the walk and no strikeouts, no extra
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 4: base hits there a Rose, Raine and Crawford I guess
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: look like are both backed for the Mariners now. Is
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: that true because they're at least listed in that Yeah,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 4: they're at least listed as active here, so they're listing
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 4: in that setup there. So maybe Seattle is getting healthier
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 4: on offense now because those guys were both injured for
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 4: a while too. So I don't know, man, I mean,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 4: I don't really want to trust Johnson, but it's possibly
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: pitch as well. George Kirby is pitching for Seattle. He's
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 4: obviously the pitcher that we can like. He's the more
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 4: predictable pitcher kind of, although he's he's just kind of impredictable,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: unpredictable in of itself, in of himself though, like he's
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a roller coaster, like he'll just
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 4: have really bad starts kind of randomly. He's got a
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 4: three point nine to four ERA. One point three to
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: four whip is not that good though. He's been inexplicably
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 4: worse at home four point five to six Homie Ira,
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 4: even though it's more pitcher friendly. I don't really get it.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 4: We backed him in his last outing at Pittsburgh. It
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: was a good situational spot I think to fade Pittsburgh there,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: and I thought we had a little bit of a
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: pitching edge there. We wound up having a Seattle's bullpen
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: did get us that win. So Seattle overcame a two
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: to one deficit and won that game because of their bullpen.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: So all right, so Seattle's bullpen did get us that
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: win in that game. But I'm not happy right now, Kirby.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 4: I mean, his numbers are interesting because his strikeout rate
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: has been pretty good recently. His walk rate's been low.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 4: He's got a low walk rate in the season. His
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 4: strike out rates not that good on the season, but
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 4: it's not awful really, But his hit rate has been
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: way too high, Like I don't know what he's doing.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 4: I guess throwing too many pitches over the plate. He's
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: just way too hittable, So that's the problem with him.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Anaheim are pretty good though, in sixty
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 4: seven at bats one ninety four average allowed five thirty
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 4: four oh ps twenty five to five strike out walk racio.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 4: So Kirby does match up well against Anaheim here. So
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: the problem here is it's a bad spot for Seattle.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: So it looks like you might want to face Seattle here.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 4: You also get a good price if you want to
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 4: do that, because Seattle's laying minus two hundreds something here.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: So Seattle's laying a huge price because they're getting obviously
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 4: they're getting the respect from the market, and the market
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 4: is telling you Osmaker's telling you Seattle has a significant
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: pitching edge in this game and they're just the better team,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 4: which is all true. But that line does seem too
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: high given that Johnson is capable of pitching well, we
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 4: just don't really know, you know, So if you want
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 4: to bank on that, maybe it does make sense to
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: maybe look towards Anaheim on the run line or something.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 4: And play the situation. But They're bullpen is awful, so maybe.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know if you want to go
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 4: first five Anaheim on the run line and just try
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 4: that out that way, but I wouldn't do that either, really,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 4: you know, just the only thing you have going for
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: you is the situation. The matchup does favorite Seattle here.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 4: The total is low at seven and a half, so
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: the oddsmakers are actually still respecting both starting pitchers here.
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: It looks like, which is kind of interesting. Money is
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 4: hitting the over pretty strongly, but I think this could
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 4: be a first five under at seven and a half.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: I don't think I'd be able to go full game
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: because Anaheim's bullpen is pretty bad, even though you are
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: getting the hook on that at the seven and a half,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 4: But an under might make some sense in that game,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: but maybe first five. Only Dodgers are at the a's.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: The A's they're returning home from the road as well,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 4: but they stayed on the Pacific coast. They went to
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: San Francisco, it so really short trip there, but then
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: they went down to Anaheim now there returning home from there.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 4: The Dodgers will be traveling up from San Diego by
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 4: the way, I was right. I said San Diego yesterday,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: and I didn't put that on my card. Don't you
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: hate that, dude? I fucking hate that. I go own
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: three in the first game that I left off my
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: card yesterday was San Diego money line and they got
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: the win yesterday. I am so pissed, dude. Oh, I
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 4: need to do something different in baseball or something. Even
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: though baseball's we've had a good season on the show
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 4: in baseball so far, but recently it's been really bad.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 4: Although we've been getting unlucky with some of those two
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are coming up from San Diego. Both teams are
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 4: staying on the Pacific coast here though. The Dodgers are
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 4: starting a third straight road series though, so that might
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: catch up to them a little bit. But the A's
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 4: are returning home from the road, so I don't really
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: love that either, even though they're not having to cross
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 4: time zones, so that should help them. I looked at
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching. I know it's gauge jump of giving
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: out a play. I think on four starts of his
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 4: now or something, and we're three to zero to one
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 4: in those starts. We got to push with him. The
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 4: last time out. But yeah, this one, I'm not gonna
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 4: quite get there with it. Even though you look at
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching matchup on the service, to me, it
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 4: looks like you do want to back the A's with
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching here. Dodgers did use four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 4: but their bullpen is better than the A's. The A's
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: are pretty bad even though they only us two relief pitchers.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: I don't want to back this A's bullpen. I would
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 4: have to avoid it. A's twenty third in bullpen. The
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are fifth. Dodgers RRAs a little bit worse than that,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 4: but they're obviously the better bullpen here. Both offenses are
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: very capable. Dodgers are number one, and they're also really
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 4: gonna the road and this is a hitter friendly ballpark two,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: so this series might have some overs in it. The
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: As are number seven in offense, so you got two
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 4: good offenses in an offensive park, and the total in
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 4: this game is pretty high. I don't think I want
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: to go over here. Though. I know Eric lower is
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: pitching for the Dodgers, but he's actually been better with
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers. He was really really struggling with Toronto. They
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 4: got rid of him, and with the Dodgers he's maybe
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 4: he's just excited to pitch on a contending team. I
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 4: don't know. But he's been much better with the Dodgers overall.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 4: He's got a four point eight to seventy array one
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: point two to four whip on the entire season between
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 4: those two teams. He's been better on the road, believe
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 4: it or not, four point one to three Roady Ray.
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 4: Although this is a road game in the as Stadium,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 4: which might not be good for him because Lower is
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 4: an extreme fly ball pitcher and he's allowed sixteen home
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 4: runs this year and sixty four and two thirds inning,
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 4: so that's not good. So this might not be the
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 4: most ideal situation for Lower here. Pitching in a home
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 4: run conduce the ballpark, and he's got home run conducive
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: numbers here that's not good. He does have a pretty
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 4: low hit rate on the season, though his walk rate
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: has been high. Strike gout rate is really low though,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 4: but like I said, with the Dodgers, he's made five starts.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 4: I don't know why ESPN does this this way, but
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: his first start with them was this one against Colorado
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 4: after he was not pitching for a couple of weeks.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 4: He's been good with the Dodgers, though they've won all
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: five of his starts, although he's only picked up a
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 4: win in two of them. His walk rate has still
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 4: been kind of ivvy. His strike out rate has been low.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: That's really been the problem, but he's been okay for them.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 4: He's a lot three or fewer runs in all of
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: those starts, two or fewer and all but one of them,
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 4: So yeah, he's turned it around a bit for sure,
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: but his strike gout rate is still low. A hit
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: rate has been good, though that's been low. His walk
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: rate has been okay. I guess lower against the A's
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 4: not great, two fifty average, seven to ninety four ohps,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 4: only sixteen at bats, but it doesn't look like the
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: greatest matchup for him here Mann. The A's have been
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 4: able to hit him a little bit, and this is
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 4: that horrible as stadium and the way that he pitches
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 4: he allows home runs, so that doesn't look good for him.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 4: I think Gage Jump does have the advantage of the
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 4: starting pitching. Jump has been good, Man, and we've again
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 4: we've gone three to zero to one backing backing him
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 4: in first five inning plays so far. I'm not gonna
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 4: do it here, even though I still lean that way.
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: In this game.
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: Jump as a two point zero four e RA point
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 4: nine to six whip. That's pretty good. He's not as
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 4: good at home, although that's understandable because it's really difficult
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: to pitch in this stadium. Three point seven to one
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: Homira is still not bad. He pitched well here last
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 4: time out against Anaheim. He won hit them through seven
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 4: innings last time here in this stadium, so that wasn't
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 4: too bad. Seven strikeouts, three walks in that outing. Pitch
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 4: pretty well on the road last time out against Sar Francisco, though,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: couldn't get us the win with that first five play.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 4: Though he allowed no runs, he did exactly what we
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 4: needed him to do, but it was a tied game
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 4: after five innings, so we got to push on that.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 4: I'm not happy about that. Jump has been good, though, dude.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 4: He's got a strikeout rate right around one per inning,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: low hit rate. Walk rate is pretty low as well.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 4: He's good. He's allowed three or fewer on runs and
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: all but one start two or fewer and all but
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: two of them so far, so I think he should
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 4: do well. Even though he's going up against the best
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: offense in baseball, so I don't want to really, you know,
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 4: assume that. But he's also got the unfamiliarity advantage here
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: where they've never seen him before, and he's a lefty.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 4: His stuff is kind of hard to pick up given
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: what his motion looks like. So yeah, I think Jump
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 4: should do okay. Or I think he does have the
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 4: advantage over Lour, so I would lean that way. The
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 4: money is all coming in on the A's here. The
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are public. I don't know what's going on with
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 4: the stupid screen here. I don't see what the money
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: line is on this game. Dodgers will be favored. They're
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: actually only about minus one fifteen, though it's because it's
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 4: lower on the mound. The Dodgers don't get much respect
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 4: with Lour. On the mound, they're about minus one fifteen.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 4: But yeah, it looks way too easy to play the
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 4: Dodgers here, right Oh there it is. It's back around
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 4: minus one sixteen, seventy nine percent of the tickets around
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers, but ninety one percent of the cash on
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: the A's, So the money's back in the a's. I
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 4: don't want to do it in a return home spot,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 4: but they're at least staying on the Pacific Coast. It
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: might not affect Jump specifically that much. So if I
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: was gonna play this game, I would still do what
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 4: I've been doing, and I'd play A's in the first
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 4: five and back jump there. That's what I would do,
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 4: and avoid their bullpen. You probably you might have to
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 4: pay a favorite price for them actually there, but it's
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 4: probably still a decent money line number on that. Money's
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 4: also back in the under. Totals at ten and a
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 4: half are just crazy. I think a first five under
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 4: is possible here. You know, the Dodgers have the better
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 4: bullpen for sure, but I wouldn't trust the A's bullpen.
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: I still don't want to trust lour here though, given
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 4: how home run conduced the v is. But he has
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 4: pitched better with the Dodgers, so he is better form here.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 4: Maybe he does actually pitch okay here, So first five
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: under is not really off the table here and the
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: money's back in the under. But I think the much
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 4: better way to play that is still A's first five
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 4: and then San Francisco at Arizona. Arizona's returning home from
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: the road. And they were all the way across the
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 4: country in the Eastern time zone. They went to Saint
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 4: Louis and then Tampa Bay. So Arizona's returning basically across
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 4: the country not a good spot for Arizona. I'd have
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 4: to shift time zones. Return home for a late night game.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 4: People are gonna expect they're gonna bounce back because, oh,
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 4: they just lost to Tampa Bay on the road. They'll
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 4: bounce back now that they're at home against San Francisco,
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 4: who's the worst team than they are. So I think
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 4: the public is gonna expect Arizona to bounce back. You know,
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: I don't look at it that way. I think the
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: return home spot is negative, even if you did play
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: badly on the road. Problem is, there's no way you
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 4: can back San Francisco's starting pitcher here. So I'm not
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: playing this game either. It's another situation that doesn't have
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: a pitching matchup that lines up with it. San Francisco's
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 4: bullpend is rested, at least only he was one guy yesterday.
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 4: Arizona only used two though, so they're arrested too. I
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 4: don't love either bullpen. Arizona's ranked eighth, but their Era
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 4: puts them like in the middle of the pack, so
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 4: I don't love that. Giants should have a better bullpen
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 4: than that. Ben they're ranked twenty fifth. I think they're
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 4: better than that, but I think they're kind of a
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: mid range bullpen as well. So I don't love these bullpens,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 4: although they might do well here in a kind of
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 4: rested situation. Hitting wise, I don't like either offense. Giants.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 4: I know they're ranked thirteenth, but I keep talking about
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 4: how they fluked their way up the standings there in
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: the in the hitting department, and they've been bad for
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 4: a while now. Again, this is not a good San
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 4: Francisco offense. Even though Arizona's a hitter friend the ballpark,
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 4: Arizona has not taken advantage of that. They're twenty seventh
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 4: and hitting pretty bad. But they might be able to
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 4: hit against Tyler Malay, who he's the guy that I
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 4: tried to fade when we played Jump last time and
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 4: the A's didn't score off of Malley. I have no
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 4: idea how though. Malle is better at home and he's
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 4: not a home here, but I don't think he's that good.
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: He's got a five point four to nine era one
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 4: point four to six whip Obviously, those are not good numbers.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 4: He's been really bad on the road eight point eighty
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 4: eight road era, so you could definitely fade him here,
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 4: I think, even though he did come back from injury
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 4: and he pitched well in that first start back, unfortunately
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 4: we got to push in that game with the A's.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: Maybe Molly was just excited coming back from injury. I
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 4: did point that out as a potential concern there, and
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 4: Molly being better at home, but he's not at home anymore. Man,
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 4: he's on the road, and Arizona faced him the last
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 4: two times before he got injured, and he wasn't particularly
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 4: good in those two outings. He was better in the
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 4: more recent one kind of, although he walked more guys
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 4: than that one, But the one that he was worse
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 4: in was the one on the road where you give
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 4: up six runs of five innings. Molly has a pretty
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 4: high hit rate here is walk rates two eyes as well.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 4: Strake got rate is okay. His numbers against Arizona let
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 4: me see, yeah, I mean they're not horrible. Two thirty
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 4: three batting average allowed seven to forty seven oh ps
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 4: is right around average there, eighty six at bats eighteen
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: to nine strikeout walk ratio is not that good, though
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: it's a lot of walks. I don't I would not
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: trust Molly here, but I don't know if you can
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 4: trust Eduardo Rodriguez either, And I don't like the spot
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 4: for Arizona, but e rod Here, I think he's worse
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 4: than his numbers suggests. The advanced analytics guys keep talking
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 4: about how he pitches to contact and he's gonna do
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 4: worse at some point two point two seven e R.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 4: That is definitely gonna go wop. But his whip is
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 4: still not that bad at one point two to one,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 4: So I think, you know, he's not that bad, but
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 4: he's obviously not what he used to be. I think
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 4: he's worse than his RA suggests, but I don't think
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 4: he's terrible either. He's been good at home one point
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: eight four home e RA pitch well again last time
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 4: out in Saint Louis, shut them out for six innings.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: He's allowed one or fewer in runs in his last
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 4: three starts, but one of them was only a two
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 4: and two third inning game, and his walk number has
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: been really bad over the last three starts. He's got
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 4: eleven walks in whatever this is like sixteen innings or something.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: That's not good at all, along with thirteen strikeouts. So
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: his walk number has gone way up recently, and he's
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: gotten away with it so far, but that is definitely
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: a concern that his command is starting to falter. He's
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 4: got a good hit rate on the season, it's low,
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is slightly high, especially because of the
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: recent outings. Strike out rate is low. He doesn't really
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 4: strike guys out anymore. I don't know if I'd want
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 4: to trust him at this point. Man, his numbers against
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 4: the Giants, their average at two forty seven batting average
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 4: allowed seven to sixty one ohps is on the wrong
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 4: side of that seven to fifty threshold there, ninety seven
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: at bats, twenty seven at ten, strike out walk ratio
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: not that good. This game kind of looks like an
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 4: over to me. I think that might be the better
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 4: way to look at this game. I know, you know, situationally,
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: maybe you could argue for fading Arizona. Here. Arizona's getting
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 4: the money though, seventy six percent of tickets, ninety three
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on them and minus one thirty
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 4: six or so. Here I would not play Arizona in
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 4: that spot, even though e Rod should have the advantage
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: of Amalley there, you know, and maybe Arizona does have
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen as well. But I think the over
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 4: is what makes the most sense, and the money does agree.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: Sixty percent of tickets on the under, eighty eight percent
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the over, the totals nine, which
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: is typical pretty much for an Arizona home game. So
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 4: you're right on that key number nine. Yeah. I think
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 4: both pitchers could struggle a bit here, and I don't
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 4: love the bullpens either, so I think it over makes
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 4: some sense there. Uh, what are we talking about? Dodgers
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 4: won two in a row against Wait, what are you talking? No,
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 4: they haven't. The Dodgers just lost to in a row
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 4: what they lost to in a row to San Diego.
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 4: I don't understand your question. If the a's line is dropping,
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 4: it's clearly professional money doing it. I don't know. Chase.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 4: Chase means that you're coming in too late to the party.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 4: Like chasing means that you're late to that line move,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: Like you see a line move that the professionals cause
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 4: and't already hit that line. Chasing means that you're chasing
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 4: that steam basically, and you're too late to the party
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: and you're taking a worst number, which is not a
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 4: great ideal. Though what I will say is you got
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: you got to balance it, because you do kind of
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 4: want that confirmation that, oh, yes, the professionals agree with me.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 4: So I think it's good to see that sometimes and
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 4: if you still get a decent number on it. Chasing
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 4: is not always bad even though you've lost the best numbers,
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 4: as long as you're not taking like the worst number
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 4: and the number is still in that range where it's acceptable.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 4: I don't really understand the question though, Like, yeah, the
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: lines dropped towards the a's a little bit. I think
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 4: that's because professional money is hammering the a's. It's not.
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 4: I mean, the the public is clearly playing the Dodgers
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 4: in that game. The public has no idea who jump is.
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 4: They're playing the Dodgers because it's the Dodgers. What did
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 4: I look at that wrong? Wait? What hold on? Oh
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 4: my mistake. You're right, they did win. My mistake, all right.
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 4: I feel better about that because I like San Diego. Yesterday,
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 4: I apologize my mistake. For some reason, I thought san
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 4: Diego won that series. All right, I'm wrong about that. Yeah,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 4: you're correct. I still don't understand the question though, Well
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 4: actually maybe I do. Yeah, I mean I gave you
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 4: the answer. The public is playing the Dodgers. The professional
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 4: money outweighs the public money. The professional money is the
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 4: respected money. So the books have moved the line where
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 4: the professionals are putting their money. So the professionals are
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 4: that Amazon baseball all the time. It's not a sport
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 4: where the public can possibly outweigh the professional money. It
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 4: doesn't happen. It only happens in like the high profile
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: football games. Basically, yes, correct, that's professional money is playing
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 4: the A's in that game. I'm pretty sure, Dirty sock,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 4: what's up? Thanks for hanging out, dude. I gotta rest
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 4: my voice. Man, this is bad, really bad. But yes,
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 4: that's a pros versus Joe's game. As far as I
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 4: can tell, based on the market. There you have all
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 4: all the Joe's are lining up on the Dodgers. There,
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 4: all the pros are taking the A's. That's what it
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 4: looks like to me. We have no WNBA, thank god,
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 4: fuck that. We do have World Cup action here. A
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 4: couple of afternoon games. The first game at one pm
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 4: Eastern is in Houston, Texas. It is Brazil and Japan,
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 4: and Brazil's only minus one thirty on the three way
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 4: line here, so they're probably like minus two hundred or
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 4: so on the too advanced line. Because I talked about
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 4: this yesterday. We get to the knockout stage, the three
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 4: way line does still allow you to bet the draw,
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 4: and that means the draw wins if the game goes
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 4: to penalty kicks, if that makes sense, So you need
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 4: the game to be tied after the full game gets played.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 4: Plus I think they play an extra time. I forget.
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 4: We almost saw it happen yesterday with that awful game
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 4: with Canada and South Africa there, but Canada scored in
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 4: stoppage time, so the game did not go into extra
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 4: time there, so we couldn't see what happens. And I'm
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 4: pretty sure what happens is they play an extra thirty
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: minutes and then if it's still tied after that, then
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 4: it goes to penalty kicks, and I believe the draw
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 4: hits if it goes to penalty kicks. The draw is
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 4: less likely in the knockout round though, so that's what
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 4: I was about to say earlier when somebody mentioned SOB
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: is playing the draw in some of these games. There's
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 4: no way I would do that in the knockout round.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 4: The draw is less and less likely the more time
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 4: you play in a match, and if you're playing an
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 4: extra thirty minutes of match time, yeah, the draw becomes
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 4: less and less likely. The game becomes more and more
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 4: likely to become higher scoring. So I don't like that.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 4: Both teams are trying to win too, so it's I
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 4: don't like it. I don't like the idea of playing
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 4: a draw in any of these knockout games. I would
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 4: not do it. That is just I don't do soccer
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 4: much or that is not my thing at all. I
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: think playing Japan on the win to draw line or
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 4: winter draw line might be the best approach here, actually,
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 4: And then I know the draw is, you know, part
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 4: of your play there, and if it does draw, it
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 4: does still hit. But I still think that might be
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 4: the way to play this one, even though I just
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 4: said don't bet on the draw, But that's just the
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 4: way you get the best line on Japan here, because
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 4: you're probably looking at Japan being about plus one ten.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 4: Maybe if you do it, that way on the wind
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 4: draw line. I think that's what I would do. The
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 4: public is gonna pour in on Brazil here, man, and
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 4: Japan just played in Texas and they drew with Sweden,
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 4: so nobody's gonna pay attention to Japan. But I think
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 4: Japan's a little under the radar, man. And then they
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: were able to draw with the Netherlands. I mean, although
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 4: if you go in, if you dive into that, as
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 4: I talked about when I gave out the Netherlands as
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 4: a play in their next game, the game was misleading. Yes,
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 4: the Netherlands did win that game statistically, but Japan's not
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 4: that bad, dude, and I believe they don't. I don't
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 4: think they played particularly well against Sweden, so they don't
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 4: look that good right now. But I think they're under
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: the radar. Brazil. They get overrated in these World Cups, man,
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 4: because they're Brazil. But what has Brazil done that's impressive
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 4: at all. They had a draw with Morocco and then
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: they beat Haiti in Scotland. Okay, Haiti is awful, one
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 4: of the worst teams in the entire thing. In Scotland's
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 4: not that good either. Scotland was only able to beat Haiti.
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 4: So yeah, so I'm not really impressed by what Brazil
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 4: has done so far. Japan has been more impressive so
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 4: far in the World Cup. They've played more difficult opponents
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 4: so far, except for Tunisia, they suck. But yeah, Japan's
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 4: had a much more difficult World Cup route so far,
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 4: and they have the better travel spot here. Brazil is
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 4: coming in from playing in Miami, although that's not too
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: bad going from Miami to Texas, but Japan is staying
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 4: in Texas. So yeah, I like Japan on the wind
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 4: draw in this one. Man, I think Brazil's overrated. Brazil.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 4: They're a very young team, I'm pretty sure, so they
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 4: kind of inexperienced, so I don't expect them to win
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: the World Cup this year. They could potentially see an
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 4: early exit here. Man, I don't know, but yeah, Japan
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 4: I think is going to be competitive there. My play
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 4: is in the next game though, or I just think
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: this is going to be a mismatch here. I'm gonna
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 4: kind of play off recency bias. Ye, I'm gonna give
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 4: out Germany minus the one and a half on the
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: spread here, So yes, that does mean Germany has to
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 4: win by two goals here, but I think they could
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 4: do this. Their minus two seventy five on the on
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: the three way line here, so they're a pretty significant
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: favorite against Paraguay, who I think is a terrible team.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 4: Uh Germany, they played much more difficult competition. I mean,
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 4: look at Germany's route here. Although they played Kurasaw, who's
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 4: the worst team in this whole thing, Fine, whatever, they
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 4: demolished them. And then Germany played Ivory Coast and they
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 4: did get a little bit lucky in winning that one.
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: And then if you remember, I did fade Germany against Ecuador,
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 4: but remember Germany had already advanced, so Germany did not
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: have anything to play for in that game against Ecuador,
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 4: and Ecuador needed points to advance, so the motivation was
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 4: all on Ecuador in that one. So I think that
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 4: explains why Germany got outplayed in that game. I don't
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 4: think that was what Germany really is. And Ecuador and
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 4: Cote di Voir the Ivory Coast, those are both way
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 4: better opponents than any opponent than Paraguay has played so far,
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 4: and they're both better than Paraguay. So yeah, I think
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 4: people were gonna overlook Germany maybe a little bit here
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 4: because they didn't look good against Ecuador, but I just
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 4: explained why and why we had we had to play
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 4: on Ecuador and that with Germany again, they didn't need
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 4: the game, they had no It was a meaningless game
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 4: for them. And yes, I know Germany did get lucky
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 4: against Ivory Coasts, but Paraguay is a massive step down
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 4: from both the Ivory Coast and Ecuador. Paraguay is way
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 4: worse than both those teams. Paraguay has not been impressive
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 4: at all, dude. They lost to the US badly they had.
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 4: They had an own goal in that one too, that
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 4: helped the US really early in the game. They only
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 4: managed to beat Turkey one to nothing. Although I know
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 4: Turkey isn't that bad. As I told you, Turkey beat
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 4: the US and that was a win on the show
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 4: here as well. Five and one World Cup play actions
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 4: so far, man, I mean World Cup Action. I should
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 4: say Paraguay was a big underdog in that one. But
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 4: if you dive into this box score Paraguay, there's no
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 4: way they should have won this game. They got red
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 4: carded halfway through the game, and I have no idea
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 4: how Turkey didn't win this game. Turkey dominated the game dude,
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 4: they outplayed Paraguay two to zero basically on the expected goals,
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 4: dominated possession, had more shots, had all the chances in
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 4: the game. Turkey was the better team, So this is
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 4: just a misleading result. I have no idea how Turkey
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 4: didn't win that game, especially with a man advantage for
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 4: half the game, but I think that says more about
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 4: Turkey just missing opportunities than it does about Paraguay actually
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 4: being good. They're not good, and then that showed because
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: Paraguay didn't even score against Australia. Australia is bad Paraguay,
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 4: They're in a dude, I'm sorry, but they were in
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 4: a bad group here. But the US being the best
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 4: of the group there, the US is not that good.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 4: So Paraguay has faced less difficult competition here that zero
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 4: zero draw against Australia. I do realize that the draw
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 4: was fairly likely there because both teams could kind of
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 4: just play to the draw and both advanced, so that
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 4: is kind of what they did. I think they both
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 4: just kind of agreed to play to the draw. But
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 4: I'm not sold on this shit at all with Paraguay. Also,
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 4: the travel spot is way better for Germany here, Germany
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 4: just played in New York in New Jersey whatever, So
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 4: Germany is only going from the New York City area
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 4: up to Foxboro, Mass Easy, easy travel spot for Germany
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: coming off a game where they didn't look good and
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 4: should be in bounced back mode. Paraguay is coming from California,
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 4: so they're having to travel across the country and it
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 4: just three time zones different, which they're probably not that
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 4: used to. So I think that helps Germany a little
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 4: bit here too. It's not an early game, which maybe
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 4: the early game would be worse for Iguay because it
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 4: would be like too early again. I usually I think
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 4: the late games are worse, like when you go from
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 4: east to west, you have to play a late night game.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 4: That's worse. But this still isn't that good, you know.
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 4: Uh So I like Germany. We're gonna take him to
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 4: win by multiple goals here at plus one oh five.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 4: I think that's the better approach here. Basically we get
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 4: the spread bet there, so that's what we're gonna do.
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 4: I think it's a it's a mismatch. And then Netherlands
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: and Morocco is kind of interesting in the Netherlands are
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 4: only plus one thirty on the three away line, and
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 4: I expected the Netherlands to be public because if you
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 4: look at the World Cup bracket game that I filled out,
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 4: the Netherlands are getting the majority of the picks there.
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 4: But I looked at the money at least based on
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 4: Action Network, Action Network had Morocco actually being a public
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 4: side in this game, which is really interesting. This game
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 4: is in Mexico, and I don't think either team played
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 4: in Mexico yet during this tournament, so it's a weird
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 4: travel spot for both teams. Netherlands are coming in from
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 4: Kansas City and Morocco was coming in from I don't
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 4: even know East Coast somewhere. I think Florida, maybe Atlanta. Yeah,
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 4: so you know, it might be a worse spot for
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 4: Morocco a little bit having to play a nine pm
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 4: Eastern game after being in the Eastern time zone when
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 4: the Netherlands are in the Central time zone. But whatever,
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 4: I kind of like the Netherlands here. I think I
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 4: would probably if that was if I was gonna play
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 4: this game, I think I would just grab the Netherlands
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 4: on the three way line of plus one thirty. I
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 4: think that may be the best approach because they're gonna
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 4: be a little bit too heavy of a favorite. On
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 4: the two advance line, they're probably looking at about minus
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 4: one seventy or so, although as I pointed out yesterday,
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 4: I think the Netherlands are a team that does have
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 4: a decent advantage if a game goes to penalty kicks.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 4: Netherlands have some really good strikers like Van Dijk, so
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 4: I think the Netherlands would be okay in a penalty
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 4: shot situation if it comes to that. But Morocco, yeah,
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 4: I don't. I think Morocco might just be a little
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 4: bit overrated because of what they did in the last
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 4: World Cup. They made the semi finals in the World
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 4: Cup four years ago, but I told you some of
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 4: those guys are no longer there, and their coach or
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 4: manager left like a couple of months before the World
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 4: Cup started here, so I don't know what the deal
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 4: was with that. So I don't know that I really
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 4: trust Morocco here in Morocco, they've had kind of an
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 4: easy path, except that they did have a good one
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 4: one draw against Brazil, but like I said, it's an
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 4: inexperienced Brazil team, and then all Morocco did after that
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 4: is barely beat Scotland and then they beat Haiti and
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 4: they gave up two goals to Haiti. That, you know,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 4: that I think helps us out here if you're gonna
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 4: give up two goals to Haiti. Although Haiti, you know,
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 4: was an eliminated team and probably were just playing to
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 4: try to get some scores there, you know, to redeem
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 4: themselves a little bit. Morocco probably overlooked them a bit there.
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 4: You know, Morocco's not gonna overlook the Netherlands. But still
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 4: that's not a good sign that they gave up multiple
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 4: goals to Haiti.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 4: So I think the Netherlands might be able to put
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 4: up some goals here. So I mean, if you I
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 4: wanted to go like Netherlands over their team total in
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 4: this one, maybe that makes some sense too. But I
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 4: don't know. I think the Netherlands on the on the
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 4: three way line plus one thirty seems decent to me there,
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: and I'm kind of surprised that it seems like the
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 4: public is back in Morocco. But the Netherlands have also
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 4: had the more difficult opponents here. They had to face
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 4: Japan and Sweden and they did beat both of them.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 4: Those are both decent teams. Tunisia is not, but the
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 4: Netherlands were in a little bit of a more difficult
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 4: group just as a whole, because they played two pretty
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 4: good teams whereas Morocco only played one in Brazil. So
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 4: that's what I think about that lean Netherlands there, that's
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 4: gonna do it. Man, Yeah, two plays today or the
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh Pirates on the on the first five money line.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 4: I think we get the best edge there with the
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 4: starting pitching and it's a situation will play, So we'll
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 4: take Pirates in that one. And then we have a
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 4: Germany in the World Cup on the spread minus one
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 4: and a half. There they should dominate Paraguay.
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 4: Germany's put up a lot of goal like, they put
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 4: up a decent amount of goals so far, though a
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 4: lot of it was against Cuisyle. But this is a
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 4: Germany team that is there's still a good offense, so
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 4: we're back them here. I think they're a little bit
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: overrated maybe in general, but I don't know. They got
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 4: a tough draw in the World Cup though that's the thing.
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 4: They have to go up against France fairly early on.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 4: If the bracket goes the way that it's supposed to.
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 4: I think they get France like in the next round
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: or something, so very very difficult for Germany to get
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 4: past that. But they should win this game, I think
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 4: fairly easily. So that's what we're gonna do there. I
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 4: think Germany might just be a little bit overlooked just
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 4: right now the because of what they looked like against Ecuador.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 4: But like I said, that game didn't mean anything to them,
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 4: So it's kind of one of those spots. A lot
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 4: of times you'll see me play against the team and
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 4: then I'll be on that team in the next game.
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 4: You know, let's have a bounce back day here, man,
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 4: I forgot to put this up, but I don't even
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 4: want my record up. There were ice cold learn it
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 4: tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram, Like, subscribe
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: to this channel here, let's get us some views. Man.
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is still a good run. We've still
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 4: had a good year. Like we're still gonna win on
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 4: the year here unless something really bad happens. And we've
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 4: been winning over these last few months too, so we
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 4: got to get back to it. I was running around
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 4: sixty six percent, although I told you that was unsustainable though, Like,
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 4: if we're running like in the high fifties percentage wise,
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 4: that's like really good. So we got to get back
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 4: to it though, man, Uh listen on audio two Apple
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 4: Spotify speaker that helps me out. Uh covered in you
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 4: because my juke channel on YouTube, so you can check
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 4: that out. Although my voice is so bad right now,
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 4: I don't know when I can get back to it.
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 4: I managed to do one cover the other day, but
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 4: this is just bad. I'm really not happy man, as
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 4: a singer when you have no voice, I don't know
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 4: how to take care of my voice that well. Though
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 4: I don't really have that many huge issues with it,
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 4: but this is just bad, Like it makes me really
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 4: sad that I can't sing.
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 3: Like.
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to do about this right now.
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 4: Hopefully it's just because of the illnesses that I've had recently,
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 4: and hopefully it just goes away, but I have no idea.
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 4: What else do we have to promote? Patreon dot com,
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 4: slash learn to Tone if you want to throw me
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 4: support that way. Loser Cast. We're actually gonna do an
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 4: episode tonight, I think because it's a latent schedule, so
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 4: Tyler is probably not gonna be on it again. Loser
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 4: Cast three straight Mondays, although we had two shows two
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 4: weeks ago, so be on the lookout that should be
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 4: out soon. That'll that'll be tonight, I mean, so be
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 4: on the lookout for that. Giants g Spot podcast. New
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 4: York Giants will return at some point, and I think
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 4: that is it. Go check out my appearents on NETFLM
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 4: desk Squad on Friday neft to America. If you didn't
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 4: see that, that was fun as well. I'm you know,
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 4: I don't. I don't know if I'm allowed to say anything,
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 4: but we may be doing something more regularly there. Let's
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 4: say that's gonna do it. I appreciate it. Every nobody's
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 4: gonna hear this show anyway. Nobody listens to this show,
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 4: all right, peace, but don't you go quiet.
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: Don't you play it from the flow? Your name steal
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: mean something to somebody for show? Put the glass down, baby,
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: look at me, now.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on nothing nice, now, hold on, hold on.
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 2: Let me foll you.
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: That bites hord, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now