Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 4247 This FINAL Poll Is DEVASTATING for the Democrats!!!

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Ep. 4247 This FINAL Poll Is DEVASTATING for the Democrats!!! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: What did the biggest surprise on election night isn't who wins, but how wrong the expectations were?
• 0:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: And here we are just six days away, and a brand new poll, the gold standard for midterms, has the Democrats in utter shock.
• 0:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: in the very end of this video because we're going to see the latest numbers, we're going to see Democrats pulling money out of a number of races no longer deemed competitive, and we're going to put to bed once and for all, all the anxiety and hysteria surrounding the Senate seat in Texas.
• 0:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steaver, Paige, your professor celebrating yet another glorious day in the Trumpian Golden Age that you made possible back in November of 2024.
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• 1:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: All right, let's dive right in here.
• 1:34
  [SPEAKER_03]: We have got a huge final poll from Harvard Harris.
• 1:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now, those of you who've been with us for some time now know that Harvard Harris is considered the gold standard of the generic congressional ballot.
• 1:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: They were literally within a point of guessing the 2018
• 1:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: final make up of the electorate in their midterms at 2022 and the like take a look at this their final generic ballot poll has Democrats up nationally by just four now part of my gloating here but what did your Patriot professor predict what was going to be the Democrat advantage on election day did I say something like Democrat plus five
• 2:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: Well now we have historically the single most accurate generic ballot poll predicting four and that tane enough as they say that's half of what the Democrats got in 2018 when they went on to win 40 seats in the house now.
• 2:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: This latest Harvard Harris fits with the overall trajectory of the last two weeks of polling in the Senate races where the polls have shifted drastically towards Republicans on the RCP aggregate, the real clear politics polling average in Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Michigan.
• 2:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: The Democrat candidate's lead has fallen to under two points, and in Iowa actually Henson has taken the lead.
• 3:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: So we've now reached the point where if the normal polling error happens, the Republicans will win every Senate race with the exception of North Carolina, Georgia, and New Hampshire.
• 3:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: Well, cross our fingers with...
• 3:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: Minnesota, but admittedly that is a stretch, but with the with the normal pulling error, we could be seeing Republicans keep their 53 seat majority with the flip by Mike Rogers in Michigan making up for the loss in North Carolina and we're getting further confirmation.
• 3:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: That the winds have indeed shifted with word that Democrats are already trying to temper expectations for the midterms as according to a report from Politico Senior Democrats are reportedly expecting what they're calling far more modest house gains as Republican candidates improve in internal polling and GOP spending helps to threaten Democrat incumbents now
• 4:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: This does not mean, and again, I want everyone to make sure you understand what to expect going into Tuesday as I'm seeing it here.
• 4:13
  [SPEAKER_03]: This doesn't mean the Democrats don't expect to win the house.
• 4:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: They still do, but by far fewer seats.
• 4:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: then they were originally projecting probably to 20 maybe to 24 maybe as high as to 26.
• 4:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: I know things I still am with.
• 4:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm about 60 40 with the Republicans pulling off the to 20 win and we could see that.
• 4:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: We can actually see the Democrats and their tempering expectations if we follow the money.
• 4:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: We're now getting word that Democrat operatives have pulled money from even more races according to report by zero hedge.
• 4:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: The Democrats' main house super PAC is cutting advertising in five Republican health districts.
• 5:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: that they had hoped to flip.
• 5:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: So that's Tennessee's fifth, Florida seventh, Colorado's third Arizona second, and Texas's 23rd.
• 5:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: So as far as I can see, we're not seeing a blue wave.
• 5:12
  [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, again, again, yes.
• 5:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: The Democrats are
• 5:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: definitely going to flip some seats for short.
• 5:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's going to be a plus four Democrat electorate at least or around there, right?
• 5:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: And that's enough to flip seats and districts where Trump won by only a couple of points.
• 5:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: But in statewide races where Trump won by double digits, you can forget about it.
• 5:34
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now with a four-point advantage, it's just not enough.
• 5:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: And so that brings me.
• 5:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: to this utterly bizarre anxiety that continues to surround the state of Texas.
• 5:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: I saw it on the Laura Ingram show last night.
• 5:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: Well, if she had a guess, if the vote stopped today, if we just stopped there, you know, Tolerico would be our center.
• 5:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: I'm like,
• 6:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: But it, first of all, that's not true, but the vote doesn't stop today.
• 6:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: There's just this whole, there's this spectre of this notion that Talerego is going to turn Texas blue.
• 6:12
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I want to see if we can put that to bed tonight.
• 6:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: I don't, I, look, yes, he can do it.
• 6:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I'm going to show you how, but it is very highly unlikely.
• 6:24
  [SPEAKER_03]: Certainly, so unlikely it does not justify this kind of angst.
• 6:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: When it comes to Texas, let's make sure we've just got some objective metadata to work with here.
• 6:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: And our good friend Seth Cashell does a nice job of summarizing this Seth is from Texas.
• 6:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: Bottom line, Texas as we speak is five points to the right of where it was in 2016.
• 6:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: And eight points to the right of where it was in 2020.
• 6:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: In addition, the Latino vote share at minimum is 10% stronger for the Republicans than it was in 2016.
• 7:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: Across the board.
• 7:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: And when you combine that with a national generic ballot lead to just four points for Democrats as per Harvard Harris, these are very formidable forces working against anything resembling.
• 7:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: a tower recovery.
• 7:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: When all said and done, Texas is much more red than it was in 2018.
• 7:22
  [SPEAKER_03]: The last time at Democrat came within three points of winning the Senate.
• 7:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: That was by the way, keep in mind, 2018 was the same year that Ron DeSantis came within a single point of losing to a literal crackhead in Florida.
• 7:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: This is what I just, I'll never understand this.
• 7:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: No one's panicking over Florida.
• 7:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: No one.
• 7:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: They all know Florida's going red, but Texas consistently votes to the right of Florida.
• 7:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: And yet the legacy media has us in a panic over Texas.
• 7:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: And they do whatever they do at every election cycle.
• 7:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: Bottom line, Texas is very red.
• 7:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: Trump won 183 counties by more than 50 points.
• 8:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: So in order for Talorika to win,
• 8:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: he would have to see a massive overperformance in counties like Travis, Harris, El Paso, Dallas, and at the exact very same time, he would have to see a massive underperformance in the 250 plus red counties like Montgomery, Parker.
• 8:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: And again, bottom line, we're simply not seeing either one in the early voting.
• 8:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: In El Paso, they're at about 100,000 in-person early votes.
• 8:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: Okay, Blue El Paso.
• 8:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: But at this point in 2018, with the Beto or Rourke, they were double that.
• 8:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: They were upwards of over 200,000 votes.
• 8:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: So Talorico's nowhere near.
• 8:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: where he needs to be.
• 8:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's the same with Dallas County, particularly Southern Dallas, heavily Democrat, simply not coming out.
• 8:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: And that's large because black voters have largely checked out of these midterms.
• 9:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: By contrast, the Trump counties, they're crushing it.
• 9:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: MontGummery County, which voted for Trump by over 40 points, they had a turnout on Monday that was up 21% from Monday of last week, the first day of in person early voting.
• 9:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: They were up 21%.
• 9:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: Dallas County, which voted for Kamala, they had a turnout that was 44% down from Monday of last week, the first day of in person early voting.
• 9:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: So according to NBC News Forecasting,
• 9:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: There have been over 4 million votes cast as far in Texas.
• 9:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: 46% have been Republican, 44% Democrat.
• 9:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's according to the NBC election model that I find to be actually a little.
• 9:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: Shall we say off?
• 9:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: Instead, there's another election model by a native Texan election model who uses precinct data.
• 9:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: Tonerous Hughes, who's been amazing resource for this election.
• 10:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: And the reason this is hardest, Texas is notoriously frustrating and determining partisan turnout because it doesn't register by party.
• 10:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: So you have to go to precinct data on how people actually voted in the past.
• 10:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: But according to this Texas modeler, the Republicans are currently up six in the early vote.
• 10:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: And it's, but whether it's two or six, it's only going to go downhill from there for the Democrats, given that they incestantly front load the early vote with their highest propensity voters, and also give
• 10:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: Uh, also given that Texas comes out and votes 20% Republican on election day again.
• 10:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: We can already see it.
• 10:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: Trump won counties are making up 60% of the vote as of yesterday, whereas Harris won counties.
• 10:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: They're only making up 30% of the vote.
• 10:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I just have to say, I just, I frankly don't understand this angst that perpetuates around the Lone Star State turning blue.
• 11:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: Greg Abbott has an amazing turnout machine.
• 11:03
  [SPEAKER_03]: He's going to win an unprecedented fourth term.
• 11:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: And packs, and of course, is the down ticket beneficiary of that.
• 11:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: And that alone should be enough to welcome serns.
• 11:11
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• 11:20
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• 11:31
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• 11:34
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• 11:41
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• 11:45
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• 11:52
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• 12:04
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• 12:05
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• 12:11
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• 12:12
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• 12:18
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• 12:22
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• 12:31
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• 14:26
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• 14:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: In Arizona, the TPUSA get out the vote efforts is paying extraordinary dividends.
• 14:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: I mean, look at these numbers, just the other day.
• 14:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: In Cochease County, Republican early voting beat Democrats by 18 points, and greenly, they're beating Democrats by 11.
• 14:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: And in the granddaddy of them all, Mericopa County, look at that.
• 14:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: We're beating them
• 14:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: by nine.
• 14:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: Remember he wins Maricopa wins Arizona.
• 14:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: Maricopa is about three fists of Arizona's population.
• 15:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: Let me take a look at the latest total.
• 15:03
  [SPEAKER_03]: Republicans are now officially pulled ahead of the Democrats in the total early vote.
• 15:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's unprecedented.
• 15:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: At least when it comes to the midterms.
• 15:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: In 2022, the Republicans never led the Democrats in the early vote.
• 15:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now we're leading.
• 15:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: And again, it's only going to go up from here.
• 15:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: Election Day in Arizona is super duper red.
• 15:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's not even close.
• 15:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: So we'll want to keep a very close eye in how some house seats like Arizona 1 and Arizona 2 and 6, how they're all looking.
• 15:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: As thus far, they're looking very, very good.
• 15:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then there's Ohio.
• 15:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now, the advantage with all hios, we have three weeks of in-person early voting already in, okay?
• 15:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's where we're beginning to see some turnout modeling as a result on what to expect next Tuesday.
• 15:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I very much appreciate the model provided here by Walter Kurt, who you can find at WC dispatch on X.
• 16:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: And I like his modeling because his numbers correspond to some other
• 16:09
  [SPEAKER_03]: at the end of the day.
• 16:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: Ohio early voting looks as if it's going to be at the end of the day, a plus six lead for the Democrats, which might sound disappointing if you're a public but is actually great.
• 16:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's to the right of both 2024 and 2022 when JD went on to win his Senate seat by six points.
• 16:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: early vote ended with the Democrats at plus seven point two and in 2024 when Trump went on to win and Bernie Moreno won, it was actually early vote ended with Democrats plus nine.
• 16:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: So Democrats in Ohio tend to vote early and then they are traditionally overwhelmed by the massive Republican election day vote, which is generally around 60% of all voting in Ohio elections.
• 17:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: is seeing the Democrats right now with the lead of six points in the total in the early vote.
• 17:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then what this model does is it runs through the totals of what we get with various turnout expectations.
• 17:13
  [SPEAKER_03]: So he models out the final numbers with different Republican turnout expectations based on past election day turnout percentages.
• 17:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: So he models a Republican plus seven election day turnout, which just so you know that would be ridiculously small.
• 17:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: That would be a disaster for the Republicans.
• 17:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: If you don't know Republicans out vote Democrats on election day in Ohio by at least 12, if not 20, it's overwhelming, but regardless, this model's being very conservative, which is what I like about it.
• 17:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, he models out the totals with a Republican plus 7 turn out on election day, and then a Republican plus 8, and Republican plus 10, or Republican plus 12, again, every one of these forecasts is super low.
• 17:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: Ohio Republicans generally outperform Democrats by at least 12 points on election day, keep that on mind.
• 18:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: And the point of this model is to show that even if even if we were to slash that number by almost half with a plus seven Republican turnout, which would be a disaster for Republicans, the Democrats still lose.
• 18:22
  [SPEAKER_03]: The Democrats don't win.
• 18:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: John Hustard wins the Senate seat.
• 18:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: We'll see you if you think, uh, Rob McSwampy for whatever reason, just very, um, he's just not very popular among Ohioans, but I doubt they want a radical leftist in this place.
• 18:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: But that's very good news for all the Ohio congressional seats up for grabs that we've been talking about especially Ohio 7 where the scandal written Republican Max Miller is trying to win reelection.
• 18:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: It'll be very upset of that cost us to 18, but regardless, so there you have it the most accurate pollster for the congressional generic ballot Harvard Harris sees the Democrats at just a poultry plus four electorate.
• 19:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: and all signs in Texas and Arizona and Ohio, and of course Florida, as we've talked about yesterday, point to some very important holds and gains for Tuesday.
• 19:13
  [SPEAKER_03]: My first children's book, The Candle and the Evergreen is coming November 10th, scan the code to join the free wait list for a release day reminder and free coloring pages.
• 19:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: I can't wait to share a Christmas story your family can pass down.
• 19:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thanks so much for listening to this episode of The Turley Talks Podcast.
• 19:31
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• 19:36
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• 19:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: Come back again tomorrow for another episode celebrating the rise of a new conservative age.