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Who’s up and who’s down in the Cubs’ farm system · North Side Territory: A Chicago Cubs Podcast

0:05
Speaker 1: Welcome into Northside Territory Foul Territory Networks Cubs Podcast. I'm
0:10
Speaker 1: Sahad Sharma with my partner Patrick Mooney.
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Speaker 2: Patrick.
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Speaker 1: Today we have a guest from Baseball America. Baseball America
0:17
Speaker 1: has released their top thirty prospect list for each team.
0:21
Speaker 1: Sign up for a Baseball America subscription today and use
0:24
Speaker 1: the promo code north Side thirty for Northside Territory listeners
0:27
Speaker 1: to get thirty percent off the first year of an
0:30
Speaker 1: annual Baseball America subscription. Today we have Jeff Hance joining
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Speaker 1: us from Baseball America. Jeff, thanks so much for joining us.
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Speaker 3: How are you doing great? Thanks to Ottevan Patrick. I'm
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Speaker 3: excited to be here talking about some Cubs probably one
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Speaker 3: of my favorite systems that I cover. I got five
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Speaker 3: of them here at Baseball America, and this is one that's,
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Speaker 3: you know, especially in the top ten, has a lot
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Speaker 3: of positional talent and a lot of players who are
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Speaker 3: close to the majors as well.
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Speaker 1: Right right, Let's I mean, and let's just get right
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Speaker 1: to it about I think not your number one prospect,
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Speaker 1: pretty much the number one prospect across the board. Everybody
1:08
Speaker 1: has Matt Shaw's the Cubs number one prospect kind of
1:11
Speaker 1: varies is how much everyone likes him. What are your guys,
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Speaker 1: He's going to be on this team at some point
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Speaker 1: this season. If it's not opening Day, he'll probably be
1:20
Speaker 1: very soon after. And the only reason it wouldn't be
1:22
Speaker 1: opening day is because something odd has happened. The way
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Speaker 1: it's trending right now, there'd be a surprise move happening
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Speaker 1: if Matt Shaw isn't on this roster to start the season.
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Speaker 1: But well, where are you, guys, Baseball America on where
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Speaker 1: are you personally on him? How do you kind of
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Speaker 1: see that bat and the defense in particular third base?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say that the defense is probably the
1:47
Speaker 3: biggest question mark right now with Shaw. I have a
1:51
Speaker 3: long history with Shaw. He's local to me, grew up
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Speaker 3: about fifteen minutes from where I'm sitting with you guys
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Speaker 3: right now. I saw him playing in high school, saw
2:00
Speaker 3: of him in college, so a lot of them in
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Speaker 3: the Cape Cod League, you know, And I think that's
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Speaker 3: really where he established himself as one of the better
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Speaker 3: college players available in that draft class. Really just ran
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Speaker 3: the table from like the beginning of the season to
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Speaker 3: the end. Is like the best hitter on the cape,
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Speaker 3: and I think the big thing with him is it's
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Speaker 3: the bat. It's offensive tools that are above average across
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Speaker 3: the board or really high motor. I think that's something
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Speaker 3: that probably gets lost in this a little bit. Is
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Speaker 3: this guy, you know, kind of has that grity mentality.
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Speaker 3: He's going to show up for the ballpark every day.
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Speaker 3: He's going to do the things that he needs to do.
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Speaker 3: He's going to put the work in to get better
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Speaker 3: above average bat speed, so or there's impact there as well.
2:38
Speaker 3: There's good bats of ball skills. I think he really
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Speaker 3: balances sort of his swing decisions well that he's not
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Speaker 3: overly passive, he's not overly aggressive, but he's willing to
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Speaker 3: attack pitches in the zone consistently. He's going to hit
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Speaker 3: for power. He's an excellent base runner. You know, it's
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Speaker 3: not plus foot speed, but I think when you factor
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Speaker 3: in his reads off of the pitcher, just how Quickie
3:00
Speaker 3: is with that first step the second base, he's a
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Speaker 3: guy that's going to probably steal about thirty bags. So
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Speaker 3: you know, kind of adding another infielder with some speed
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Speaker 3: obviously makes that Cubs line up more dynamic, and you
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Speaker 3: know it's not gonna be like Nico Horner, who's an
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Speaker 3: excellent hitter but really lacks that sort of twenty plus
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Speaker 3: home run power. Shaw has that, and I think, you know,
3:20
Speaker 3: as he continues to grow get stronger, you know, works
3:23
Speaker 3: with major league hitting coaches, and obviously, you know, the
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Speaker 3: Cubs have very advanced you know, hitting development, et cetera,
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Speaker 3: that they do lean on metrics all that sort of thing.
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Speaker 3: I think he's a guy that could you know, potentially
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Speaker 3: flirt with like twenty five twenty five seasons. I don't
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Speaker 3: know if there's thirty home run power in the bat,
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Speaker 3: but I think that ballpark and just you know, his
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Speaker 3: swing type of guy's gonna hit a lot of doubles
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Speaker 3: and you know, probably twenty to twenty five home runs
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Speaker 3: while stealing a lot of bases, hitting for a good average.
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Speaker 3: The question is third base. He's never really had the
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Speaker 3: arm to stay on the left side of the infield.
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Speaker 3: That was always the question mark sort of scouting him
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Speaker 3: out in the Cape Cod League. I kind of figured
3:57
Speaker 3: he'd be a second baseman. But he's put the work
4:00
Speaker 3: in over the last couple of years and I think,
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Speaker 3: you know, has shown that you can release the ball
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Speaker 3: pretty quickly. It's pretty accurate throws. You have a shortstop
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Speaker 3: there that doesn't have the strongest arm in Dansby Swanson,
4:10
Speaker 3: but is a good thrower because he's able to get
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Speaker 3: the ball out quick, his transitions, his actions are really clean,
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Speaker 3: So there's more to it than just arm strength. But
4:18
Speaker 3: I am interested to see how he looks at third base, because,
4:20
Speaker 3: like I said, kind of just always assumed he was
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Speaker 3: a second base.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, And Jeff, given your history with Matt Shaw being
4:28
Speaker 4: kind of in your backyard, there are there any I
4:30
Speaker 4: don't know, moments or anecdotes that stand out as you
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Speaker 4: look back on how he has made some really substantial
4:37
Speaker 4: leaps over the years to be kind of on the
4:40
Speaker 4: doorstep of really feel here.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, you know, just kind of talking to
4:45
Speaker 3: high school coaches, guys that coached him and born he's
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Speaker 3: just a guy that wants to win. And I think,
4:50
Speaker 3: you know, it's more than just trying to get better himself, Like,
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Speaker 3: he's a guy that really buys into sort of that
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Speaker 3: winning mentality. He's a good clubhouse guy, kind of a
5:01
Speaker 3: top step kind of guy, you know, if you use
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Speaker 3: that expression. And I think you know that showed in
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Speaker 3: the Cape Cod League that was the best team all
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Speaker 3: summer long. They won the Cape Cod League. He hit
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Speaker 3: a big home run against Brewster, actually put it off
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Speaker 3: of the scoreboard, like naturalist. She didn't blame he didn't
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Speaker 3: like her anything, but I remember sitting there at that game.
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Speaker 3: It was a fairly close game and I think he
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Speaker 3: was a grand It might have been a grand slam
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Speaker 3: off the scoreboard and it blew the game wide open,
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Speaker 3: and you know, you could just see like the pressure
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Speaker 3: release as he was just like going crazy around the
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Speaker 3: basis So to me, when I see a guy that
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Speaker 3: shows that kind of emotion and plays that hard in
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Speaker 3: summer ball, where a lot of these guys come out
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Speaker 3: here and you know they use it as a vacation.
5:45
Speaker 3: They can go to the beach. You know, there's a
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Speaker 3: lot of you know, attractive young girls around. They're a
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Speaker 3: college athlete. Like it's that for a lot of guys,
5:52
Speaker 3: and you'll see it in the numbers sometimes and these
5:54
Speaker 3: guys go on and have great pro careers. Shav was
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Speaker 3: someone that really from like end to end, was a
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Speaker 3: great player and kind of one of the guys. He asked,
6:01
Speaker 3: how did this guy not end up on the collegiate
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Speaker 3: national team.
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Speaker 1: Because we're talking about the cape Cod I think I'm
6:07
Speaker 1: right on this. I'm going off memory. I want to
6:10
Speaker 1: kind of jump to it. A completely random player that
6:14
Speaker 1: didn't play last year is recovering from Tommy john At.
6:17
Speaker 1: Cole Mathis was a cape Cod guy.
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Speaker 2: Right am I remembering that? Right?
6:20
Speaker 3: Yeah?
6:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, He's someone that I got a lot of love
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Speaker 1: for when they drafted him. I got text from people
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Speaker 1: outside the org really high on him. I know they
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Speaker 1: traded Cam Smith, but it feels like Cole Mathis could
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Speaker 1: be that type of guy that jumps this season if
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Speaker 1: he's healthy. It sounds like he's healthy. What have you
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Speaker 1: heard about him? And kind of what are your expectations
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Speaker 1: for twenty twenty five and beyondest.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I saw a lot of Cole Mathis. I go
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Speaker 3: to a lot of Catuit games. It's one of the
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Speaker 3: closer parks to me. It's the area that my family
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Speaker 3: vacation's in. BA has a close relationship with Katuit as well,
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Speaker 3: because Peter Flaherty, one of our college riders, actually interned
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Speaker 3: and then sort of worked as an AGM. His brother
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Speaker 3: is actually one of the coaches in the bench. So
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Speaker 3: I have a lot of My son goes to Katu
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Speaker 3: at camps and was coached by Coel and I have
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Speaker 3: a friend who's actually involved with his agency. I think
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Speaker 3: the thing that people don't realize about Math is because
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Speaker 3: of the type of body, the fact that he's like
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Speaker 3: a corner, you know infielder. He's actually an outstanding athlete.
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Speaker 3: You know, moves really well for how big he is.
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Speaker 3: There's even more power projection to come. He does that
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Speaker 3: with you know, out a ton of swing and miss.
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Speaker 3: There's bats to ball skills and ability that I almost
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Speaker 3: wonder if there is maybe some chance this guy, if
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Speaker 3: you know, third base isn't the position he ends up
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Speaker 3: sliding to the outfield. You know. Obviously how the arm
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Speaker 3: and all of that stuff recovers is a big question mark.
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Speaker 3: But I think just from a pure bat perspective, there's
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Speaker 3: above average to maybe plus power and you know average
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Speaker 3: to above average hitting ability, good swing decisions, more or
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Speaker 3: less good back to ball skills, and the good swing.
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Speaker 3: I think, you know, he's a he's a guy that
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Speaker 3: could blow up. He slid into the top ten. We
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Speaker 3: had him as eleven in the handbook. Cam Smith trade
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Speaker 3: happened after our deadline for the handbook, so he is
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Speaker 3: a cub in our handbook, but online you'll see that
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Speaker 3: Smith is obviously the number one Astros prospect. Now math
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Speaker 3: has slid in at ten, so he's already in the
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Speaker 3: top ten with some of the guys that could potentially graduate,
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Speaker 3: and I think kind of looking at this, there's maybe
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Speaker 3: two to three guys that you can kind of definitely
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Speaker 3: say might hit that one hundred and thirty bat at
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Speaker 3: bat threshold for us. He's a guy that could slide
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Speaker 3: in the top five with a good, healthy season. So
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Speaker 3: he's definitely a name that if I was, you know,
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Speaker 3: a Cubs fan, I'd be plugged in on and following
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Speaker 3: mathis and seeing what his journey's like over the course
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Speaker 3: of the next year.
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Speaker 4: Hey, Jeff, how did you process that Kyle Tucker trade
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Speaker 4: of the Cubs giving up Cam Smith? A guy who
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Speaker 4: I feel like at the end of last season, obviously
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Speaker 4: he was on people's radar, but when the Cubs were
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Speaker 4: talking about their prospects, he was a little farther away,
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Speaker 4: not quite an afterthought, but wasn't as near term. And
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Speaker 4: now all of a sudden, once he gets away from
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Speaker 4: the Cubs, it's like, oh wow, best prospect in the
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Speaker 4: Astro system, maybe one of the best in the game.
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Speaker 4: What what was your kind of gut feel for that
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Speaker 4: deal at the winter meeting.
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Speaker 3: Coming off And I do the Astros as well, Okay, okay,
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Speaker 3: and I'll say like being the number one prospect in
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Speaker 3: the Astro system is not nearly as hard as being
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Speaker 3: the fourth prospect in the CUB system.
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Speaker 2: Okay, okay, in terms.
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Speaker 3: Of where they're at. I do think that he was
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Speaker 3: probably one of the bigger up arrow prospects throughout the
9:33
Speaker 3: off season process for us, just in terms of talking
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Speaker 3: to other front offices. One of the processes in our
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Speaker 3: Top one hundred that we typically always follow is we
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Speaker 3: try to send out that initial top one hundred list
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Speaker 3: to as many front offices as we possibly can, and
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Speaker 3: the feedback on Smith was some of the loudest in
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Speaker 3: the list. I almost wonder if we're still catching up
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Speaker 3: in terms of where he could be another guy that
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Speaker 3: was a big Cape cod League standout. I remember the
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Speaker 3: first time I saw him was coming off kind of
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Speaker 3: an un even freshman year because he was a draft
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Speaker 3: eligible sophomore, but an uneven freshman year at FSU. There
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Speaker 3: were some strikeout concerns. He worked with high ends as
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Speaker 3: hitting coach, Tino Martinez actually cleaned up some stuff in
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Speaker 3: his swing, and we've just really throughout that summer, you
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Speaker 3: saw the strikeouts decrease, the swing and miss decreased. He
10:18
Speaker 3: kept hitting for impact and was just doing a lot
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Speaker 3: of good things at the plate that only sort of
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Speaker 3: got better at FSU. He comes into pro ball and
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Speaker 3: it looked like he took even another step. He's another
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Speaker 3: guy that, you know, teams are doing a lot more
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Speaker 3: advanced athletic testing, whether it's with force plates, you know,
10:34
Speaker 3: whether it's with jump tests and run data and that
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Speaker 3: sort of thing. Cam Smith is another guy that was,
10:38
Speaker 3: you know, sort of top of the draft when it
10:40
Speaker 3: came to athletes and we're looking at bigger guys that
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Speaker 3: move well, there's projection for power, you know, there's projection
10:47
Speaker 3: for speed in some of those things. Yeah, I mean,
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Speaker 3: I thought it was the price that they had to
10:52
Speaker 3: pay to get arguably a top five to six player
10:56
Speaker 3: in the game. Now it's just a question of whether
10:59
Speaker 3: they can they can resigned Tucker or not. I also
11:02
Speaker 3: like the trade because they you know, if they traded
11:03
Speaker 3: away parades, I understand why they made the DAL last
11:06
Speaker 3: year it kind of didn't work out. He goes to
11:08
Speaker 3: a place where his swing is much more tailored for
11:11
Speaker 3: those Crawford boxes in Houston, but they open up a
11:14
Speaker 3: spot for Matt Shaw, and I think, like, when you're
11:16
Speaker 3: looking forward at what this Cub's core is going to be,
11:20
Speaker 3: he's going to be part of it. And you know,
11:22
Speaker 3: if they can resign Tucker, it's obviously a question mark.
11:25
Speaker 3: I think there's probably a pretty good chance at this
11:27
Speaker 3: point that he does get to free agency, but they
11:30
Speaker 3: have some money to spend. If they can bring him back,
11:32
Speaker 3: I think you know that will turn out. You know,
11:34
Speaker 3: three four years down the road, if he does come back,
11:37
Speaker 3: it's like, all right, this can make a difference. But
11:39
Speaker 3: I also think you look at the NL Central and
11:42
Speaker 3: you say to yourself, Kyle Tucker on this Cubs team,
11:45
Speaker 3: with some of the young players that they have to
11:47
Speaker 3: supplement in the case of injuries, they have a lot
11:49
Speaker 3: of positional depth right now. Pitching can get a little
11:52
Speaker 3: bit better. They've made some moves more on the low end,
11:56
Speaker 3: but they did add some innings. I think it puts
11:59
Speaker 3: them into a much better position in terms of making
12:01
Speaker 3: the playoffs, and you know, kind of separating themselves from
12:04
Speaker 3: the Cardinals and then getting a little bit closer to
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Speaker 3: where the Brewers are and maybe even passing the Brewers.
12:09
Speaker 3: So it should it should be interesting to see how
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Speaker 3: this all plays out. And you know, I don't fault
12:15
Speaker 3: them from making that deal at all. I think anytime
12:17
Speaker 3: you can get a player like that and acquire and
12:19
Speaker 3: you got to do it.
12:21
Speaker 2: Yeah.
12:21
Speaker 1: The projections Baseball Prospectives had their p CODA projections come
12:26
Speaker 1: out and the Cubs were at ninety ninety one wins,
12:28
Speaker 1: which is I was a little taken aback by that.
12:30
Speaker 1: I'm here, Patrick, and I will we'll talk about that
12:33
Speaker 1: later this week in another episode.
12:35
Speaker 2: I have a player development question.
12:37
Speaker 1: But before we get to that, let's let's take a
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Speaker 1: All right, jeff I, I We're we're really close to
13:48
Speaker 1: the Cubs, right, So sometimes I I'm curious to like
13:51
Speaker 1: at more zoomed out National perspective, the thoughts on their
13:54
Speaker 1: player development. There's a lot of you know that've made
13:56
Speaker 1: a lot of changes over the past five years. They
13:59
Speaker 1: hired Tyler Zombra this past offseason. This off season before that,
14:03
Speaker 1: they had a new head of player development in Jason Chandler.
14:07
Speaker 1: Curious what your perspective, what stands out about their player development,
14:11
Speaker 1: What do they do well? What would you like to
14:12
Speaker 1: see them or what would people around the game think
14:15
Speaker 1: they need to improve upon. What's the kind of the perception.
14:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's been a long running issue for
14:21
Speaker 3: the Cubs just in terms of, you know, internal development
14:25
Speaker 3: on the pitching side. I think some of it is
14:27
Speaker 3: also the type of traits that they target. You know,
14:31
Speaker 3: up until recently, they hadn't had I think up until Steel,
14:34
Speaker 3: they hadn't really had a homegrown arm in a long time.
14:38
Speaker 3: That's certainly a big issue. I think it's one of
14:42
Speaker 3: the things that's kind of held them back over the
14:43
Speaker 3: last couple of years. On the positional side, it hasn't
14:49
Speaker 3: been I mean, it hasn't been awful. I think that
14:51
Speaker 3: you know, some of the swing stuff that they've done
14:53
Speaker 3: has been pretty good. They do a pretty good job
14:57
Speaker 3: of targeting hitters generally. I think in the drafts they
15:01
Speaker 3: do pretty well in that college market. They don't go
15:04
Speaker 3: after a lot of high end high school players, which
15:07
Speaker 3: is a place that they had done pretty well previously.
15:11
Speaker 3: I think some of that is they're a very model
15:13
Speaker 3: driven team, so the type of traits that they look
15:16
Speaker 3: for are typically guys that have a balance of good
15:19
Speaker 3: swing decisions, bats of ball skills and power, and then
15:23
Speaker 3: it's just you know a matter of finding a position
15:25
Speaker 3: and kind of optimizing some of those traits. I think
15:28
Speaker 3: they do do pretty well on the hitting side. I
15:30
Speaker 3: wouldn't say it's one of the elite hitting development teams,
15:34
Speaker 3: but you know, it has been fairly good. They've brought
15:37
Speaker 3: you know, a lot of players up to the major
15:38
Speaker 3: leagues over the last you know, five to six seven
15:41
Speaker 3: years before that, the big issue is pitching. I do
15:45
Speaker 3: think it's better than it used to be, and some
15:47
Speaker 3: of some of the additions hopefully can sort of bring
15:51
Speaker 3: some of those guys up. I mean, they do have
15:53
Speaker 3: some decent talent here in terms of pitching, but they
15:56
Speaker 3: haven't spent a lot of money at the top of
15:58
Speaker 3: the draft. It's hard to buy those guys internationally, and
16:02
Speaker 3: more often than not, the trades they've made have necessarily
16:05
Speaker 3: targeted pitching prospects, so it's tricky. I mean, I think
16:09
Speaker 3: that's the one area that, you know, if I had
16:11
Speaker 3: to sort of pick out one place where the Cubs
16:13
Speaker 3: need to improve, I think it's I think it's the
16:15
Speaker 3: pitching side of things. And you know, you don't have
16:17
Speaker 3: to be developing aces, but just being able to have
16:20
Speaker 3: those guys that come through the system that are major
16:23
Speaker 3: League ready that can even be a fourth or a
16:25
Speaker 3: fifth or a sixth starter for you can pay dividends.
16:28
Speaker 3: I do think they have a couple of those guys
16:30
Speaker 3: right now, and someone like Kate Horton and bird Sell
16:32
Speaker 3: to a to a lesser degree. But I think when
16:36
Speaker 3: you look at Horton some of its injuries, you have
16:38
Speaker 3: questions about, you know, how much can he develop a
16:40
Speaker 3: third pitch, which has been you know, one of the
16:43
Speaker 3: lingering questions about him, you know, dating back t when
16:45
Speaker 3: he was in college.
16:48
Speaker 4: Yeah, Jeff, that's like the quick snapshot of this farm
16:50
Speaker 4: system on pitching side. It's like, there's Kate Horton, and
16:53
Speaker 4: is there anyone else? And even Kate Horton kind of
16:56
Speaker 4: got hot at the right time, got drafted very very high,
16:59
Speaker 4: and seems to have been dinged a little bit and
17:02
Speaker 4: probably fairly what is your outlook on CAD and then
17:06
Speaker 4: just the rest of that pitching group for twenty twenty five.
17:10
Speaker 3: We're a little bit higher on more, I think than
17:14
Speaker 3: some of the other sites that are out there. You know,
17:18
Speaker 3: he's obviously had a tricky injury history. He didn't pitch
17:21
Speaker 3: much in college. I think when you look at that
17:24
Speaker 3: one season with Oklahoma where he really broke out in
17:27
Speaker 3: the second half, the beginning of that year was almost
17:29
Speaker 3: like a rehab for him. Showed some good things when
17:32
Speaker 3: he came into pro ball, you know, unfortunate timing with
17:36
Speaker 3: injuries last year. It sounds like he's a full go
17:38
Speaker 3: this year. I think it's just a matter of like
17:41
Speaker 3: is there a third pitch, you know, does he have
17:43
Speaker 3: a cutter or something, you know, the curveball. Can he
17:47
Speaker 3: get that change up to a point where it's even
17:50
Speaker 3: a fringe average pitch? I mean we put a forty
17:52
Speaker 3: on it, below average grade. I think that's the biggest
17:55
Speaker 3: question mark. It's an above average fastball. It's a plus
18:00
Speaker 3: to double plus slider when it's on. Any questions about
18:06
Speaker 3: the shape last year I think could be injury related.
18:08
Speaker 3: So I kind of want to throw out twenty twenty
18:10
Speaker 3: four with Kate Horton. But if you know if he's
18:12
Speaker 3: healthy and he's ready, I do think that it's a
18:15
Speaker 3: major league quality arm. He's probably more of like a
18:20
Speaker 3: five and dive guy right now, just because he's not
18:22
Speaker 3: super efficient, doesn't have a ton of innings built up
18:25
Speaker 3: throughout his career. There's some chance that he can end
18:28
Speaker 3: up as a reliever. If he ends up as a reliever,
18:30
Speaker 3: he's going to be a high leverage guy. And I
18:33
Speaker 3: know that, like as a big a Cubs fan, you
18:35
Speaker 3: don't necessarily want to hear that, but that's still a
18:37
Speaker 3: really good outcome. If it's like a power reliever that
18:40
Speaker 3: can handle you know, high leverage innings, those guys are
18:43
Speaker 3: super valuable to becoming more valuable in this day and age.
18:47
Speaker 3: So you know, I think there are a lot of
18:50
Speaker 3: folks throughout the industry that I think got a little
18:53
Speaker 3: too ahead of themselves in terms of like writing off
18:56
Speaker 3: Horton just because of an injured season. We'll see what
18:59
Speaker 3: he comes back. I do think anytime you have a
19:02
Speaker 3: pitcher here who's super athletic, who has you know, velocity
19:05
Speaker 3: and the fastball power is not a question maybe getting
19:10
Speaker 3: a little bit more of his fastball shape, which backed
19:12
Speaker 3: up a little bit this year. But he's got a
19:14
Speaker 3: plus maybe double plus pitch and that can go a
19:17
Speaker 3: long way. So you know, if you can even get
19:20
Speaker 3: that change up to a point that he just uses
19:21
Speaker 3: it situationally or like I said, as a cutter, or
19:24
Speaker 3: you know, something that can sort of give him that
19:27
Speaker 3: that bridge pitch between you know, the fastball and the slider,
19:31
Speaker 3: I think it will pay dividends. And that's not to
19:34
Speaker 3: say it's not going to happen. I mean he's still
19:36
Speaker 3: very young in his career. And I think the other
19:38
Speaker 3: thing we see with with pitchers in particular is so
19:41
Speaker 3: much development happens at the major league level when they
19:43
Speaker 3: it's so hard to replicate major league at bats, like
19:46
Speaker 3: I can you know, all these teams or most of
19:48
Speaker 3: them have trajet machines now which replicate you know, the
19:52
Speaker 3: perfect movement and spin and release point and velocity of
19:57
Speaker 3: like Garrett Cole's best fastball, and that's what you're always facing.
20:00
Speaker 3: You're always facing, and you could I mean, there were
20:03
Speaker 3: guys in Triple A here in Worcester that were plugging
20:05
Speaker 3: in the guys in Triple A before they faced them
20:08
Speaker 3: and taking VP, you know, before the game against the
20:10
Speaker 3: guy they were going to face. You can't really do
20:12
Speaker 3: that with you know, major league lineups unless you have
20:16
Speaker 3: a major league lineup for these guys to face, and
20:19
Speaker 3: it's not you know, it's not an easy thing to
20:21
Speaker 3: get you know, nine major league hitters together in a
20:23
Speaker 3: non major league game. So I think like that's something
20:27
Speaker 3: that's always sort of the learning curve of Like it
20:30
Speaker 3: may take a year for this guy to settle in,
20:32
Speaker 3: and it could be rough early on, but I do
20:34
Speaker 3: think the traits, the underlying traits and abilities are there,
20:37
Speaker 3: and we'll see how much attitude he has in terms
20:39
Speaker 3: of adding that third pitch and improving him.
20:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, one other thing I heard early last season before
20:46
Speaker 1: the injury, his mechanics were kind of about whack. He
20:48
Speaker 1: came into camp and they were trying to work that,
20:51
Speaker 1: and right as they were correcting that, that's when the
20:54
Speaker 1: injury kind of popped up and derailed his season. We'll
20:57
Speaker 1: see if that's legit, if he's if he comes in
21:00
Speaker 1: with a couple extra takes in the basketball shape is
21:02
Speaker 1: back obviously that I think he'll quickly bounce back in
21:05
Speaker 1: other people's eyes as far as his prospect status goes.
21:09
Speaker 1: I'm curious you guys were pretty aggressive with the international
21:12
Speaker 1: class this year. Where you rank them?
21:15
Speaker 2: What? Uh, tell me about these guys?
21:18
Speaker 1: I know, like these are the types of guys we're
21:20
Speaker 1: gonna know almost nothing about, right, Like what what.
21:24
Speaker 2: What stands out about their talent?
21:26
Speaker 1: And where kind of where does this class rank as
21:29
Speaker 1: far as international classes go.
21:33
Speaker 3: I think it was one of the better international classes.
21:36
Speaker 3: Just talking to Ben Badler, He's an expert on that.
21:39
Speaker 3: You know, Uh, in terms of firsthand experience. I don't
21:42
Speaker 3: have a ton of first hand experience with Tomos and
21:44
Speaker 3: these other guys, but you know, we do have somebody
21:47
Speaker 3: in Badler who works these guys you know, or this
21:50
Speaker 3: this market you know for many many years, has connections
21:53
Speaker 3: down there. He goes and sees players, so he's got
21:56
Speaker 3: a lot of firsthand experience and also gets a lot
21:59
Speaker 3: of buzz in terms of of, you know, leading up
22:01
Speaker 3: the signing day, who's ascending, who's getting better? And I
22:05
Speaker 3: think that's always the big question that.
22:08
Speaker 2: A lot of the.
22:09
Speaker 3: Guys are signing at you know, fourteen fifteen years old
22:12
Speaker 3: in reality or agreeing to deals at fourteen or fifteen
22:15
Speaker 3: years old, And I mean think about what you were
22:17
Speaker 3: like at fourteen versus what your body would like at
22:19
Speaker 3: fifteen seventy. I mean it was. It's a massive difference,
22:23
Speaker 3: you know, And and I think that's the craziest thing
22:26
Speaker 3: that you know, teams can even scout these guys and
22:29
Speaker 3: do it fairly well. That said, Wan Tomas was probably
22:33
Speaker 3: one of the more exciting players in any international class.
22:37
Speaker 3: He's athletic, he's got size at I mean he's listed
22:41
Speaker 3: at six two one seventy seven. I've heard he's at
22:43
Speaker 3: in an inch and he's actually six y three now,
22:45
Speaker 3: super projectable build. We have above average power on him.
22:49
Speaker 3: He's a plus runner, you know, at least average skills
22:53
Speaker 3: in the in the field. So you never know if
22:56
Speaker 3: these guys are going to stay at shortstop because like
22:58
Speaker 3: I said, he's sixteen. We don't know how it's going
22:59
Speaker 3: to project over the next couple of years. I do
23:01
Speaker 3: think he's got the actions and just the stuff that
23:03
Speaker 3: I've seen in video and the things I've heard from
23:04
Speaker 3: Ben that he's gonna stick in the dirt. And that's
23:07
Speaker 3: really the biggest question mark. Does he have a position right?
23:11
Speaker 3: You can hit the bat can be great, you know,
23:13
Speaker 3: if you don't have that sort of supporting skill, that's
23:16
Speaker 3: certainly a question. The other guy, and I think he
23:19
Speaker 3: actually got a bigger bonus than Tomas was wil Free
23:22
Speaker 3: de la Cruz, another big guy has you know, six
23:26
Speaker 3: foot three again, has a chance to add weight, still
23:30
Speaker 3: pretty wirey, wiry. I think, you know, Badler said that
23:34
Speaker 3: it's even possible this guy could add you know, twenty
23:37
Speaker 3: to twenty five pounds of muscle over the next couple
23:39
Speaker 3: of years. He's a switch hitter, you know, kind of
23:43
Speaker 3: similar skills too, average hitter. There's power projection. He's a
23:47
Speaker 3: tux slower than Thomas, but has a bigger arm and
23:51
Speaker 3: might be more likely to stick a shortstop. Maybe just
23:54
Speaker 3: doesn't have the offensive upside. But I think when you're
23:57
Speaker 3: talking about players like this that are that are signing
23:59
Speaker 3: in our nationally and getting into top thirty lists, you
24:04
Speaker 3: have to be pretty special to beat out some of
24:06
Speaker 3: these names. And you know, like I like a lot
24:08
Speaker 3: of the guys that are in this sort of eleven
24:10
Speaker 3: to twenty range. I think there's some sleepers when you
24:12
Speaker 3: look at you know, Sipaida who had a inhel Cipaida
24:15
Speaker 3: shortstop that signed a couple of years ago, actually a
24:18
Speaker 3: native of New Jersey, but signed out of the Venican Republic.
24:20
Speaker 3: One of those deals had a really good season in
24:23
Speaker 3: the in the UH the Arizona Complex League. The underlying data,
24:28
Speaker 3: even beyond the slash line, was really really good. I
24:31
Speaker 3: think there's more power there than people even probably realize.
24:34
Speaker 3: You know, he had a one oh two zero point
24:37
Speaker 3: two mile per hour nine eight percent dial. His max
24:40
Speaker 3: EV this year was one O eight point eight. That's
24:43
Speaker 3: well above the average for that agent level. That's something
24:47
Speaker 3: to keep in mind. I think Ronnie Cruz is interesting.
24:50
Speaker 3: He's got a lot of folks in the front office
24:52
Speaker 3: excited and like, yeah, he'll you know, Melendez has some
24:55
Speaker 3: some tools as well. So I think overall it's a
24:58
Speaker 3: good international class, especially when you put it in the
25:00
Speaker 3: perspective of some of the other young players around him
25:03
Speaker 3: that have already come Stateside and shown ability. So I
25:06
Speaker 3: think this is definitely something for Cubs fans to be
25:09
Speaker 3: excited about. They did pretty well in this international market
25:11
Speaker 3: just based on the early returns.
25:14
Speaker 4: Jeff, you make a great point about development from when
25:16
Speaker 4: these guys you know, agree to deals to come to
25:19
Speaker 4: the States to putting some context around say moisspal Sterios,
25:24
Speaker 4: I ready to report great stuff for our listeners. Like
25:29
Speaker 4: can he catch? And like how soon will he he
25:32
Speaker 4: be hitting bombs at Ridley Field.
25:35
Speaker 3: It could be later this year. I think the biggest
25:39
Speaker 3: question mark with him is just how, you know, how
25:42
Speaker 3: is the catching going to? Yeah, the body improved a
25:45
Speaker 3: lot yere Okay, I think people need to understand that
25:48
Speaker 3: I was watching. I watch a lot of video of
25:50
Speaker 3: Cubs guys, a lot of games live. I'm not near
25:53
Speaker 3: a ton of those affiliates, so I see him some
25:55
Speaker 3: in spring training, and then it's more like I get
25:57
Speaker 3: back from the ballpark from seeing East Coast teams and
25:59
Speaker 3: I'm I'm putting on different Cubs affiliates and watching those games.
26:03
Speaker 3: The body was big. It was now ajndro Kirk sort
26:06
Speaker 3: of body he showed up at. We have a prospect
26:10
Speaker 3: pad that we put on. It's part of our sponsorship
26:14
Speaker 3: and stuff in the Futures Game, So it's when these
26:16
Speaker 3: guys come in the day before the Futures Game. He
26:19
Speaker 3: walked in. We didn't recognize him. Wow, it looks a
26:21
Speaker 3: lot more like Francisco Alvarez. He's still heavy, but it's
26:26
Speaker 3: more like a catcher's build than like this is unusual,
26:30
Speaker 3: Like is this guy you know too big? To stay
26:32
Speaker 3: behind the plate. I don't know how he's looked over
26:35
Speaker 3: the offseason. I don't know how that went. I was
26:37
Speaker 3: told by some folks with the organization that I think
26:41
Speaker 3: from like April to like JUNI dropped almost like fifty pounds.
26:46
Speaker 3: And the hitting ability is like I mean, barrel control.
26:50
Speaker 3: There aren't many guys I see that have the sort
26:53
Speaker 3: of bats of ball ability and the ability to put
26:55
Speaker 3: the ball where they want. They had some of the
26:56
Speaker 3: skill competitions that they did before the few or after
27:00
Speaker 3: Futures game this year. One of them was sort of
27:02
Speaker 3: placing the ball in different spots throughout the infield, in
27:05
Speaker 3: the outfield. He was the best at that. I think
27:08
Speaker 3: he was actually leading after that competition. You know a
27:12
Speaker 3: guy that could just put the ball any place that
27:14
Speaker 3: he wants. He doesn't sell out for power. He does
27:16
Speaker 3: have bat speed the underlying exit velocity data as well
27:20
Speaker 3: above major league average. At this point, I think he
27:22
Speaker 3: had like a one oh five or one oh six
27:23
Speaker 3: ninetieth percentile. I'd have to double check, but it was
27:26
Speaker 3: in that range. I think this is a plus hitter.
27:30
Speaker 3: I think the bat's probably good enough that if he
27:31
Speaker 3: ends up at first base or he ends up as
27:34
Speaker 3: a DH, it's fine. It could be one of those
27:36
Speaker 3: things where you know, he's a platoon catcher that's you know,
27:39
Speaker 3: catching twice a week and sees them at bats as
27:42
Speaker 3: a DH and see some bat at bats at first base.
27:45
Speaker 3: But it's a really special bat And I think we
27:48
Speaker 3: have him higher than other places because wh as I
27:50
Speaker 3: was talking to scouts, as I was talking to folks,
27:52
Speaker 3: even with the Cubs, it seemed like they really have
27:56
Speaker 3: a lot of belief that he's going to hit at
27:58
Speaker 3: the major league level. And I think you got to
27:59
Speaker 3: put in pspect he's only he was only twenty years old.
28:01
Speaker 3: I think he just turned twenty one. Yeah, and as
28:05
Speaker 3: in the cusp of the major league's already in Triple A,
28:07
Speaker 3: he's going to have all that experience. And I think,
28:09
Speaker 3: you know, they've had a couple of guys that, you know,
28:12
Speaker 3: like Owen Casey's another one that gets that full year
28:15
Speaker 3: of Triple A experience that pays dividends once those guys
28:18
Speaker 3: get up to the majors and they're doing it at
28:20
Speaker 3: really young ages and showing advanced abilities.
28:24
Speaker 1: Jeff, So, the CUB system pretty top heavy as far
28:28
Speaker 1: as guys at the upper levels right now, you look
28:31
Speaker 1: at that top you know, of the top ten, like
28:34
Speaker 1: six seven of them, I wouldn't be shocked if they
28:37
Speaker 1: either graduate or are trade it. If the Cubs are
28:39
Speaker 1: in contention, I could see some of these guys moved
28:42
Speaker 1: as well. Can you paint a scenario where they a
28:47
Speaker 1: lot of guys graduate, they trade some guys, but they
28:49
Speaker 1: don't completely fall off a cliff. What needs to happen?
28:53
Speaker 1: Who are the guys that you're watching that say, this
28:55
Speaker 1: guy's a chance to develop. This guy can keep them
28:57
Speaker 1: in as a top you know, fifteen or top you know,
29:00
Speaker 1: make sure they don't become twenty five or worse as
29:03
Speaker 1: far as farm systems just because of graduations.
29:06
Speaker 3: I think some of those international guys that we talked about,
29:10
Speaker 3: you know, I have a tough time believing that Al Kantara,
29:13
Speaker 3: I mean, he could get traded. I have a tough
29:14
Speaker 3: time believing he's going to be up in the major
29:16
Speaker 3: leagues for a good chunk of the year. I think
29:17
Speaker 3: another year or a full season at Triple A's going
29:21
Speaker 3: to do him some goods. Probably I would imagine spends
29:26
Speaker 3: most of the year at Triple A. Probably maybe not
29:28
Speaker 3: enough at bats to graduate. But the key guy here
29:31
Speaker 3: is Jefferson Rojas. He came into last season entering twenty
29:35
Speaker 3: twenty four, Rojas was one of the big up arrow
29:38
Speaker 3: prospects and you know, super advanced off obviously the lower
29:43
Speaker 3: levels in terms of what he can do. Let's see
29:47
Speaker 3: what happens this year. I think, you know, he's a
29:49
Speaker 3: guy that could rebound in a big way with somebody
29:53
Speaker 3: that was pushing up to or was around the top
29:55
Speaker 3: fifty last year. He fell off of that. He's out
29:58
Speaker 3: of the top one hundred now. But I think it
30:00
Speaker 3: really good season from him, just so in some gains
30:02
Speaker 3: at the plate, showing a little bit more power, a
30:05
Speaker 3: little bit more impact and game because he has the
30:08
Speaker 3: supporting skills that he's a guy that could really move
30:10
Speaker 3: up quite a bit. I think you look at maybe
30:12
Speaker 3: like Jackson Wiggins, who has really good stuff. If he
30:14
Speaker 3: can continue to sort of show that you know, he's
30:17
Speaker 3: more than a reliever, that he can be a starter,
30:20
Speaker 3: he can go deeper into starts and hold that stuff,
30:22
Speaker 3: he's another one. And then I think a lot of
30:25
Speaker 3: these international guys that we had mentioned, and you know,
30:27
Speaker 3: whether that be this class or the twenty three class,
30:30
Speaker 3: like Cipado or some of the guys that they took
30:32
Speaker 3: chances on in the draft, like Ronnie Cruz or even
30:34
Speaker 3: Pedro Miraz. I mean, Pedro Ramirez kind of gets lost
30:38
Speaker 3: in the shuffle. Really good signing for them out of Venezuela,
30:41
Speaker 3: cheap bonus at seventy five dollars seventy five thousand, and
30:45
Speaker 3: you know, he's continued to hit. I think there's more
30:48
Speaker 3: power there just based on the exit velocity data than
30:51
Speaker 3: what is slugging percentage has shown. Some of that is
30:54
Speaker 3: also the lower levels for the Cubs. They're not playing
30:57
Speaker 3: in plus offensive environments and that sort of changes once
30:59
Speaker 3: they get to double A and triple A. But I think,
31:02
Speaker 3: you know, sometimes when we're looking at overall numbers and
31:05
Speaker 3: there's a lot of folks, you know, publicly, they don't
31:07
Speaker 3: have access to advanced, you know, stat cast data like
31:10
Speaker 3: we've had for the last couple of years, it's tough
31:13
Speaker 3: for them to project out power. I think there's a
31:15
Speaker 3: lot of sort of sneaky guys in that eleven to
31:18
Speaker 3: twenty range that could jump up next year, and then
31:21
Speaker 3: you know, you'll see how the draft goes as well.
31:23
Speaker 3: I think that's probably the biggest part of it. We
31:25
Speaker 3: don't start ranking farm systems until after the trade deadline,
31:31
Speaker 3: after the draft and the signees. That's when we sort
31:33
Speaker 3: of do our second ranking in the second half of
31:36
Speaker 3: farm systems. A good draft, and you know, some of
31:40
Speaker 3: those guys taking step forwards I think would definitely allow
31:43
Speaker 3: them to stay in the top half. They're they dropped
31:46
Speaker 3: a little bit under Camsmith. I think they were like
31:48
Speaker 3: thirteen or fourteen. I think what's going to come out,
31:51
Speaker 3: They're going to be more like seventeen or eighteen. But
31:56
Speaker 3: in the reality of it, like eight to twenty are
31:59
Speaker 3: already close. You know that it's it's a matter of
32:02
Speaker 3: a couple of high end players and just sort of
32:04
Speaker 3: where they rank out. But you know, it's it's still
32:06
Speaker 3: a pretty good system, and yeah, it'll be interesting to see,
32:09
Speaker 3: you know, like what they do with some of these
32:11
Speaker 3: guys like Casey who have had you know, a full
32:14
Speaker 3: year triple A experience is pretty good there. He saw
32:17
Speaker 3: it in the field. He showed a lot of growth
32:19
Speaker 3: just from a bad ball perspective, and you know, always
32:23
Speaker 3: had the underlying power and I think he can kind
32:25
Speaker 3: of marry that. He's still young enough for all that
32:27
Speaker 3: to come together. So I think that's all part of it.
32:29
Speaker 3: But I'm interested to see if they make any more
32:31
Speaker 3: trades here because they do have some trade chips and
32:33
Speaker 3: probably players that teams would be interested in because some
32:36
Speaker 3: of them are sort of plug and play major leaguers
32:38
Speaker 3: at this point.
32:40
Speaker 4: Right, Jeff, you've kind of finished my thought right there.
32:44
Speaker 4: Of you know, this trade deadline I think is going
32:46
Speaker 4: to be used for Jed Hoyer. You know, we'll see
32:48
Speaker 4: if he what he does here before the start spring training.
32:52
Speaker 4: I think we're operating on the assumption that this will
32:54
Speaker 4: be the last year of his contract and then they'll
32:56
Speaker 4: revisit with ownership after the year. And so I do
32:59
Speaker 4: think all of those games you mentioned will be it'll
33:01
Speaker 4: be fascinating to watch to see how much Jed kind
33:04
Speaker 4: of pushes in further for this season or not.
33:10
Speaker 1: Absolutely, Jeff, thanks so much for joining us. Everyone make
33:15
Speaker 1: sure to check out Baseball America. Their top thirties are
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Speaker 1: all out. Use the promo code northside thirty to get
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Speaker 1: thirty percent off the first year of your subscription of
33:24
Speaker 1: Baseball America. Again, Jeff, thank you. This is inside Territory. Yeah,
33:29
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Everyone loves prospect Talk and you are totally
33:32
Speaker 1: on top of that.
33:32
Speaker 2: We really appreciate it.
33:34
Speaker 1: Make sure to subscribe, rate and review on to the
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Speaker 1: north Side Territory and to the YouTube channel Subscribe Today Athletic,
33:42
Speaker 1: where Patrick and I are totally on top of the
33:44
Speaker 1: Cubs all off season and into the spring. Thanks everyone
33:47
Speaker 1: for listening, Take care.
33:48
Speaker 2: Thanks Jeff.
34:01
Speaker 6: Never anything really day, anything to
34:20
Speaker 2: D