Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | The AgBull Team Roundtable

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | The AgBull Team Roundtable · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_03: Russia doesn't want to fight.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_03: But also, maybe it does.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_03: November tested the 12 handle waters in the soybeans and soundly rejected the flow.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_03: And corn, well, corn just kind of kept its head down, which seemed to make cattle futures happy.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_03: Lots of moving parts today.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_03: From behind the big blue bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson, the handsome newsman for Ag Squawk in the afternoon, September 3rd.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_03: Glad to have you along.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_03: It's already Thursday, but a heck of a Thursday.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_03: It's been now, as they say in Canada.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_03: Now, when I was scheduling this week, I left a hole here on Thursday.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_03: I didn't even try to get any guests booked.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_03: And I don't know, call up my nose for news.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_03: I I just thought, well, if something happens, then I'll I'll get somebody on and we'll we'll talk about that.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_03: And sure enough, quite the day, quite the day.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_03: The November bean contract fell all the way down to uh 1290-ish and then recovered back up.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_03: We're still beans in the teens, everybody.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_03: A very close call today.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_03: We're gonna run through the tail of the tape, we're gonna run through the settlements.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_03: I've got export sales to talk about and make sure that you're up to speed on all of those.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_03: And then I've got Tommy, and then we'll talk to Jed.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_03: And I don't know, maybe Joe will poke his head in.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_03: We'll see.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_03: We'll see how it's gonna go.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_03: But I'm gonna talk with the Ag Bowl crew today, just about what's been going on this week, what the heck happened today, and you know, we'll we'll see what shakes loose.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_03: So let's begin here.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_03: Private exporters report the sale of 192,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2627.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_03: Over to the export sales, we've had export sales of corn and beans.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_03: They were within the range of expectations, while wheat export sales were below the lowest pre-report forecasts.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_03: Corn was above week ago, but below the same week last year.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_03: Soybeans were more than double year ago, but fell short of last week's impressive tally, over two million metric tons last week.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_03: Still sporty this week at 1.8 million metric tons.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_03: Let's get to the tail of the ticker, because she was a wild one, a rodeo in the markets today, you might say.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_03: We'll see if Jed can confirm that.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_03: Because if there's one thing Jed knows, it's gotta be rodeos.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_03: The tail of the ticker after sharp price pressure overnight.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_03: I mean sharp, sharp price pressure.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_03: Wheat futures dragged corn and soybeans to the downside.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_03: All three very quickly established session lows early and bounced higher ahead of mid-morning.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_03: Meanwhile, cattle futures shot higher right out of the chute.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_03: Lean hogs were along for the upside ride.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_03: This was early on, rounding into the lunch hour.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_03: Lean hogs turned negative.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_03: But the cattle complex, although off session highs, did hold on to some decent gains.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_03: Soybeans were exploring the plus side of unchanged as corn and wheat got quiet at lower levels.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_03: Before we get to the settlements, let me mention plus 500 software.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_03: Plus 500 T4 software is what we use here on the Ag Bull Squad.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_03: It gives us real-time quotes, futures, and options, and all sorts of awesome things to do.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_03: Plus 500, that's plus 500.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_03: And turning my gaze over to my plus 500 T4 software, December corn, settled out today at 540 and three quarters, down just two and three quarter cents on the day.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_03: November beans, it was a squeaker, an absolute squeaker.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_03: 1316 and a quarter.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_03: Still in the teens, up six cents on the day.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_03: As I said, uh tapped a low in the November contract around 12.90 and decided, nah, no, not sexy.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_03: Soybean meal was higher, soybean oil was lower.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_03: Over to the Wheats Your Chicago December Wheat at 7.54 and a quarter at settlement, down 19 and three quarters.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_03: But that's actually a very decent recovery.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_03: The December KC contract, 815 and a half, down 18 and three quarters.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_03: And then over to the livestocks where I've got feeder cattle, the October contract up 672 and a half at 321 and 10.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_03: December fat cattle, 216, 12 and a half, up 410.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_03: And I think I've got the October quoted here at uh 214.30.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_03: That's right, on the fat cattle, up 412 and a half.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_03: And the lean hogs said, nah, the upside's not for me today.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_03: The October contract at 83.45 is down 32 and 12 cents.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_03: Out to the December, 73.92 and a half, down 40 cents on your lean hogs.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_03: Before I bring in my first guest, I just want to lay this out because this is what we were dealing with, and then everything changed.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_03: Rustern President Vladimir Putin's suggestion that there is a chance of reaching a peace agreement with Ukraine triggered a sharp reversal in wheat and other grain prices Thursday, but the market reaction ran well ahead of any actual improvement in Black Sea shipping.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_03: Putin said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok that Russia and Ukraine ultimately must resolve the conflict, and that he believes an agreement is possible.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_03: Let me bring in uh my first guest, the man, the myth, the legend himself, Tommy Grissaffi.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_03: Uh Tommy, where what what do you got going there, buddy?
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_03: You're not in your office, it looks like.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: No, we're at Bucky's in uh where are we?
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: Smith Grove, Kentucky.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: I left the uh Nedzvik trading office early, wanted to get on the road, get home, uh getting ready for the uh holiday weekend.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: But we're gonna have an action-packed day uh tomorrow, Davis.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: And I gotta tell you, I'm just I'm just blessed that I drank two glasses of water before I went to bed last night and had to wake up to pee at 3:30 because I've been up ever since there.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, the the markets have changed from when I was uh a young guy and about 50 pounds lighter trading in the pits.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we used to close the markets and we had something called Project Day, and they were thin volume, but huge, huge move in wheat last night, corn, soybeans, oats, the whole deal move.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: And that's not the only thing that's happened today.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like to bring our attention to the outside markets.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Huge move up in the SP, the NASDAQ, gold up 150, silver up two bucks.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Last time I looked, crude oil about unchanged.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: But to think the stock market could rally this hard with$92 crude, seeing some complaints on the X-Bill about folks starting to put$6 fuel.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: I'll keep my head out the window and see what what fuel is here.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: I think I just paid$340 for good old-fashioned gas, but uh I think I'm noticing diesel along the highway$550.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's just uh what a time to be alive.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: But that was just that was just the 3 30 to 7 30 shift.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Then we take our brick biscuit break.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: We had those, we had those good numbers out of China.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: China been consistent buying beans, and they're probably getting ready for their meeting.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Jim taught us that they had those auctions.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: Jim Wiesmeyer, our very own uh in-house DC guy, uh, he was saying, you know what, they're clearing space in China, they're having auctions on the reserve, and that's allowing China to come to the states here and uh uh buy some beans.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: Hopefully the meeting goes well.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: Trump said yesterday we uh he was looking forward to you coming here.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: So then then we open, right, Davis?
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: And you have your plus 500 quotes, so does Jed and Joe and Lindsay and Justin and everyone else.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: And we just almost went limit down in Board of Trade week.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Limit down 45 cents.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: We were like two, three cents from it, and then it just started to rally.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: And then the the real market to catch the first bid was soybeans, then led by porn, and then we still closed down.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: But I mean, you can't really when you're eight dollar a week, you can't call it down 20 cents bad a bad day, not when we have this type of volatility.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: In the end, though, I will tell you just the room I was sitting in, and then we probably had six or seven big traders in today, and there was a lot of excitement.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: I think people have the gas pretty hard down on this get ready for harvest.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: There's gonna be selling pressure when beans go from down 20 to almost maybe up 10, maybe up nine at the close, and then settled up five.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: But that is not a that is not normal for the first week in September.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: But I'll tell you what else isn't normal, brother.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: I'm down here in Kentucky and the old Chevy was reading 99 degrees, and I hear it's hot in the Midwest.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: I bet you it's hot in Kansas City.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: Clients in North Dakota, South Dakota are talking about it's 85 degrees and they missed another rain and they really could have used it for the beans.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: So there's just trouble out there.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but wait, there's more.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: Then we have the cattle open.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: So cattle looks over and says, Oh, brother, we've been trending down, trending down, trending down.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: It sees porn down 15 and says, Let the good times roll.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: We gapped open higher, exploded higher, settled.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle were up about three bucks, feeders up four or five.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: And then we just went to the moon, brother.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: Remember when you were a younger man when you would say cattle were limit up up three bucks, and feeders were limited up up five bucks?
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: We traded up nine dollars.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's like the old double limit, and and we settled pretty good.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'd say feeders settled up seven, live cattle up four, like you quoted.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: And the only thing I could tell viewers and listeners is uh if we're in a bull market, we are truly, truly acting like a great bull market.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: It the fact that we can go lower.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: I had a list of people who said, I need to buy something when we're lower, and a lot of bids got hit overnight.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: You got to put your order in to get it.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: It's like the old days of hey, it's the weekend.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: I doubt your grain elevator is gonna be open on Sunday night.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to sell beans or corn higher, you gotta have your buckers in.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: The same thing goes back for buying bushels.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the fact we got a 15 cent pullback in what some people are calling six, six fifty, seven dollar corn.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I don't know at Bucky's here.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'll walk around a little bit.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: I I don't know if they have any$7 corn hats here, but uh if you've never been to a Bucky's, let me show you.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, speaking of the tail of the tape, I know you love you love pork.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: Can we go show you the meat selection here?
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_03: Oh, I wish you would.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_03: I absolutely wish you would.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_03: Have you partaken?
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_03: Did you get some?
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_03: Or not yet?
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: You don't get a body, you don't get a body like this eating all that meat.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: What I did was bought a bag of those nuts coated with sugar and a fresh pack of zins.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: Like to thank our sponsor.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but let's let's check out the selection here.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: Look at this.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: This feels like something you'd like here.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: A three meat sandwich.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: Delicious Carolina pourolina pour apple pie, peach pobler, sausage on a stick.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: Are you kidding me?
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: Shut the front door, sliced turkey.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: Look at this, they're making it.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: Probably they're gonna yell fresh brisket on the table.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: They're making them right there.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: They're making them right there.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, they're gonna play around here.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: But wait, there's more.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: You got the big bucking brisket, 2x chop, chop, fever chips, those look healthy.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: Big fucking brisket.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: Then over here, this is more the healthy side.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: Club melt.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's how Jed gets that good body.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: Fried chicken sandwich, delicious.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: Apple pie.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_00: Laura here is cooking them up.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: She's doing well.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: Happy.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna have brisket on the table.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: Let's see.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: Any brisket on the table?
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: How are we doing, y'all?
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: Good, good.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: Great crowd here.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: Great crowd.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: She's filming me, filming her.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_03: There's a bearded guy.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_03: You should go, you should go touch his beard just to make this I'm gonna take a fix on that.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not too sure he's gonna be as friendly as Rob Sharky.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: But Davis is picking up a shirt.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: What size are you on the Bucky shirts?
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_03: I better go XL.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_03: Better go XL.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_03: I'm down a few pounds myself, but still deep in the X.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: Halloween selection out.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't look like it would even fit the right side of my body, let alone the left.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, anyone.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: This might be the child's size.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, you got a onesie?
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_00: If Jen's acting like a baby with throwing that.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: Here, here.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: Oh my.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: But I am excited.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: I'm excited for the markets.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm excited for uh what's going on.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: Let me ask you this and everything.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_03: You mentioned you were you were hanging out down at Nesvik Central.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_03: Any talk on the bond market?
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_03: Any thoughts?
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: Early this morning, one of the Fed governors came out and started yapping and bapping, and then the bond market exploded, which means yields went down.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what really spurred that stock rally, Davis, is that Fed talk.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: I tell you what, this administration, love them or hate them, they are they are planting seeds all over.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: Also, something that we it's something we should do a premium on.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: But yesterday we had a yen intervention.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't know what a yen intervention is, Google it.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: But we could do a premium on why a bank would intervene on their own currency.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's very much affecting the markets.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: And so when you get those currencies moving, you get these commodities moving.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: A week ago it looked like no one wanted to own gold or silver, and today they couldn't buy it fast enough.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: So it was definitely a risk on day in the outside markets.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I think some of that came into commodities, Davis.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, absolutely.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_03: Tommy, I'm gonna I'm gonna cut you loose here.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_03: I know you got uh you got a lot of lot of foods to choose from there, and I don't want to clutter your thought process, but we'll we'll check in with you again real soon and yen intervention.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_03: It'll be a yinter yintervention, yen inter interjension, perhaps, even would work.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely, and also we should talk about it.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, sir.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: We'll do that on a premium.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: And real real quick, Jed, tell people why we're doing premiums and how we break down that deep dive stuff.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we we got a whole suite of stuff.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: If we just had a new subscriber while I was sitting here, and I uh appreciate all the new subscribers.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: But oh shout out to the new subscribers, yeah, yeah.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, uh, I don't know if you saw the comments on YouTube, but someone got mad you played the bugle and really play the bugle whenever you want.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so I think you go to be angry about the bugle.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: Someone who's angry.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of angry people out there.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: Keep him busy.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_03: I'm gonna go get the bugle right now.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_03: I'm playing the bugle right, standby.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: Full screen on me, yeah.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: Because nobody puts baby away.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: Don't put baby in the corner like that.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Go full screen on me while Davis is getting the bugle.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, he's back, he's back.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_03: I the official bugle of eggbull.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I want to let people know.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: Folks should be happy.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: All folks ever want is a big, big, big brain rally.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: They want a big market, they want up markets.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: And I gotta tell you, I think due to inexperience or bad advice or something, I really think people are out of position.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: I can feel it.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: I can feel it.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: Beans to go from down 20 to up eight, right into harvest.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: I can feel the nervous energy for every buyer.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: There's a seller in the futures market, and beans decided uh fair value was up eight cents at the post gave us.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_03: Very good.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_03: Tommy Grassoffi, I'm gonna cut you loose.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_03: Appreciate you, brother.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_03: Travel safely, and uh, we'll talk again really soon.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_03: Tommy Grassoffi, everybody.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_03: And uh hanging out at Bucky's today, getting some shirts, getting some brisket.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_03: Um, you know what?
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_03: Joe, I don't remember if you said you wanted to come on or not.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_03: Can I drag you on here for just just one second?
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_03: Here, I'll give you some walk-up music.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_03: We don't hear much from Joe Grissaffi.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_03: He's the man behind the scenes that keeps this whole outfit up and running.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_03: Joe, Joe Grissaffi.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_03: Buddy boy, thanks for for hopping on here real quick.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_03: Somewhat unexpectedly.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_03: But you know, Tommy mentioned it's it's been an absolutely busy day.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_03: We we got into what pressured the wheat overnight, and then all of a sudden, like I said, Putin wants peace, and then until he doesn't.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_03: Can you just talk about some of maybe some of the conversations that you've had today?
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_03: Have you heard from people you maybe haven't heard from in a while?
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_03: Have you have you noticed, you know, because Tommy said people are maybe feeling like they're they weren't positioned for this.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_03: Would would you agree with that assessment?
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: 100%.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: This this morning uh I got up to my computer about 5 a.m.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: and saw that we were down a ton across the board, read the notes, read this story about Putin wanting possible peace in the Black Sea, and my phone started ringing at 5:30, quarter to six, asking what do I think?
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: Do I think I got time to get some re-ownership?
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_01: Because everybody that we deal with has pretty much been making cash sales on this rally.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: It's a gift getting the rally into harvest, which we don't normally see.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: So we started buying calls or futures as we ran up the board here, and then about nine o'clock, I think it was, the news came across that Russia had bombed two more ships in the Black Sea, and that is when we started its reversal from two cents off the limit down and closed halfway back.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: So most of as Tommy had uh said, most of our farmers think they're out of position, and they need some re-ownership because they've made either some sales that were a little light, but there is still time.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: I I I it's giving us opportunities.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: As Tom said, we need to put those bids in overnight, which are that was phone calls I was getting right up to the point that we started the show today.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get some bids in for overnight activity because they want to have some re-ownership.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: And I I get that.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: And the one thing that nobody wants to talk about when you go into a bull rally, it seems like a bull rally, it feels like a bull rally is the the bushels that aren't sold.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: Is a lot of the a lot of the people we talk to are forgetting about protecting their interest to the downside.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_01: Because if they haven't made those sales, their risk is that this gives up and says, okay, we found we found the bushels, we've lost the demand, what have you.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: So our job as brokers, and if you don't have a broker, you need to definitely be in contact with a broker.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: Us at Agble, we are we are brokers.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody at NesVig Trading who answers a phone is a broker.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_01: So we can take care of that, but whoever you use, you need to use somebody to protect your interest up or down.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_01: This is not a norm of having so much activity and so much information geopolitically all over the world.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: And then on top of that, we get our our weather issues.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: We have our heat bubbles, we have our duratios, we have tornadoes, we have hail storms.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: This has been a year of too much information almost.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, an awful lot has happened, and I don't know.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_03: I if I guess you know, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_03: Having said that, as crazy as things have been, weather-wise, policy-wise, just international relations-wise, I don't see any reason for any of those sorts of items to slow down whatsoever.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_03: And if they can get into the markets, or you want to be positioned somewhere, you want to be working with somebody who can maybe just answer your questions for you and help you get through it, help set up a plan so that you can you can stay afloat, come what may.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_03: Hey, did you you mentioned the weather?
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_03: Did you get the weather straightened out over there in Indiana?
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_03: How are you sitting these days?
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we're hot, it's it's 93 degrees currently.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's supposed to be 95 tomorrow.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, uh they we had rain in the forecast, and our rain got taken out of the forecast.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: So in my area, uh, we're kind of happy because we've had so much that the rain can't even absorb in the ground.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yes.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: This has been a crazy year.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, no matter how you look at it, a crazy year.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: And I've got to go back to one thing, Davis.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: It's uh think of this.
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_01: You just showed the exports.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_01: There is truly no demand for U.S.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: wheat.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_01: I don't care.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_01: You see, you see the demand there, we're not there's nothing being exported.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh uh, we're way below our normal exports.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, came in below the low end of expectations this week for sure.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_03: Correct.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_03: Like 350,000 tons or something like that.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_01: It's correct.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and when you look at those numbers, we have literally during this summer rallied from about five bucks to eight bucks yeah with with the demand not being there but the problem is is the people and i i listen to people that are much smarter than me and they come up with it takes about three months now three months from now before the demand for wheat is gonna be there just in response to what's been lost in the Black Sea oh wow and once the Black Sea even this is something that never comes out once the Black Sea conflict ends it will take approximately six months to rebuild some of the infrastructure to get everything flowing again and if it takes too long there's going to be loss because it's being stored too long.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yep so those are things that are demand I believe may come into play here in our wheat market which I would love to see because our our farmers have just been struggling in the wheat market for a few years now.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_03: I know they have the heck of it is we're and I talked to Brian Hoops about this earlier this week I mean at at seven in change on Chicago with an eight handle in in KC wheat dude we're priced to ration demand not encourage demand there's there's a there's a tricky friction that's going on there with that.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely and I've been dealing with some of my wheat farmers and they're a little confused because they believe we should have had what happened a couple years ago when wheat exploded at the beginning of the Ukraine Russia war and we were in the nines before you could shake a stick at it.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah and now we're only in the seven and a half bucks in December Chicago we got room you are absolutely right that this is asking for people to come and grab our week yeah yeah yeah we should start a punk band and and call it uh tricky friction what do you think you in for that I like your idea yeah yeah all right Joe anything else you want to say before I cut you loose here buddy I appreciate the perspective this is excellent stuff well I I appreciate you having me it's nice to get our group of guys on because believe it or not we do have between all of us that's why we talk amongst us we all have different opinions and we all get different information and we all absorb as much as we can and we discuss it daily to have an idea for our clients and you do a great job of bringing that out of us which we don't always articulate.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: So thank you.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_03: Well it's you know getting you and your brother to talk really there's there's no trick to it really just sort of turn on the little red light and off we go off we go.
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_03: Joe I sure appreciate the heck out of you I don't know if you expect it to be on today or not but uh but we needed to hear what you had to say.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_03: Good stuff.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_03: I uh I appreciate you that's Joe Gersafi everybody again pality all right so we've sort of talked about what's going on in the grains and like Joe was just saying there's information flowing into the Ag Bull crew from a whole bunch of different sides.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_03: Everybody has their own little focus my next guest you you know and love you saw him just this morning if you tuned in for the Ag Bull Morning podcast.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_03: Once again we've got uh we've got feeder cattle up you know 670 690 695 in the NOV the fat cattle up three or four bucks here's 410 in the December 412 and a half higher in the October fats I can think of nobody better to ask than Mr.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_03: Jed Sidwell top on in here at this point in time.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_03: Bro the the grains have really put on a show but that doesn't mean there haven't been fireworks in the livestoc this week either they've been all over the place as well haven't they yeah I mean we started off the week kind of slow but man today especially just a huge upward spike and rally on both fats and feeders and you know there's a a lot of variables that I think go into this one.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_02: You know we kind of tested lower because we thought we were going to get in a bunch of imports and both physical cattle and that we were going to import all of this beef thanks to President Trump.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_02: And both those things kind of have turned out to be somewhat I don't want to peg them this way yet but slightly maybe not what we thought they were going to be.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_02: I won't say non-events yet because they definitely are events but definitely not what we maybe initially pegged them as.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_02: And I I brought I found this picture I popped it up a little while ago on my fat Tuesday show yeah with Mike Sands and this I think shows the drop in the bucket of what Mexican imports are going to be.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_02: And if you didn't hear to date this week we have imported 100 head of cattle across our southern border.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_02: That's two cattle pot loads in case anyone's counting track I could load those up by myself if we needed to and probably drive them here by now.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_02: It's and they're saying that you know facilities are down down there and they need to do some work which I'm sure if something's been closed for that long but at this point I think we can kind of say it's not a border problem.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_02: It's Mexico's supply problem they found out ways to use those cattle down there Davis and you know don't have as many of them to send to us as maybe we thought yeah yeah so what does that mean for for feed yards down there in the south are they going to have to just bid up that much more to bring those cattle across the border yeah yeah that's something that used to be kind of a byproduct almost or maybe that's the word the the clearance section of cattle feeding where Mexican imports it was scattered maybe a bit bruised up in spots very variable on what a Mexican uh load of cattle might look like and they used to be cheap and you could feed them really well during the summer because they were a bit more heat resistant and normally if you make your money on the compensatory gain they were a smart buy.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_02: These days you know they're still scattered and they still have that variability to them but they cost a little bit more at this point though it's hard to find feeder cattle they still might be a buy.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah yeah so where do we go from here would you care to throw your hat into that ring is is there you know I quoted them as you were coming on 321 in the October feeders there that still feels a little lofty ish we've had a setback in both the feeders and in the fats have we done any technical damage here on the downswing are we are we at risk of maybe exploring some some longer time lows or are we just kind of treading water here?
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_02: You know if I really knew where we were going to go Davis I'd probably be sitting on my yacht right now um just relaxing having a nice pina colada and just hanging out for the day.
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe be down at Bucky's looking to brisket yeah like Tommy just hanging out kicking up his feet looking looking at Bucky's meat and making off color beaver jokes but at this point we're sitting in a very unique spot because we still have a shortage of cattle whether we like it or not we're testing our consumer demand and what that looks like and I know I've seen a lot of you know less than you know accurate or news or less than reputable news sources got a hold of some of those tweets that Trump let out and yeah you know Trump sending mystery meat to the United States was the big one.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_02: And that's not necessarily the case you know it's not going to be moldy green ground beef coming over like everyone's saying it is going to be and that has me just a little bit concerned because we have a really uneducated consumer in the United States and I think that's maybe where what we forget about sometimes we have great consumers.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_02: I don't want to diss the American buyer because we're super grateful that they still treat beef like the premium protein but some people are saying the answer to this is labeling U.S.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_02: beef I don't think it is if you put two identic visually identical products right next to each other and you make one a couple bucks cheaper Davis they're gonna go for the cheaper one and plus if it made money to label US beef versus another the Packer would already be doing it because we label beef a million different ways these days and it's super cool to see we had the Nolan Ryan branding program there for a while that one was cool you can go buy an ethically raised all natural black Angus never never saw a snowflake of snow all beef hot dog right if you want to um if it was if it was profitable or strategic we'd already be doing it is kind of my 10 cents there.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah yeah that's yeah well and also working against the uh the producer bro it's it's getting dry out in cattle country it is and I think we got a picture to kind of illustrate that here this is these are the cattle areas in drought dark green are you know significant cattle areas or counties the the far left one in Colorado that's my home state of Weld County there.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_02: Hey big shout out shout out yeah we're one of the dark ones green ones lying underneath the red lines which isn't great but I think that truly shows you know a large portion of cattle country is kind of starving for a rain these days or maybe you know just looking forward into the winter not knowing what's going to happen with regards to feed that's going to be kind of a variable that we maybe don't know right now.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_02: Feed and forage prices keep on getting more expensive we're getting time to that time of year where you know we're looking at the stockpiles that we do have and maybe hoping to you know throw a few more bales in the hay yard.
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah well those those few more bales ain't cheap though are they no they aren't not at all even looking at the price of straw and corn stocks these days uh something that we used to you know lay on the ground looking like you know an eligible roughage at this point.
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah well and let's maybe we sh maybe we should talk you and I haven't talked about and I don't know how much time you spend thinking about this but you these cattle got to eat something.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_03: Yep.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_03: And if we look at the price of corn and beans I I reckon that's that's about as hard to calc out as about twelve hundred dollar anhydrous ammonia is for the corn grower there's inputs pain on the cattle side too isn't there yep there is but it's part of the life we chose and they got to eat every day.
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_02: And obviously we can you know be a little bit strategic in how we manage our feed costs we can hedge those even after we've bought them Davis that you know we can be long or short corn depending on our own you know availability or stockpiles of what we got in the bin as cattle feeders at the same time you know pasture conditions in certain areas have gone down but in others they've gone up this summer which has been good to see as well.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_03: Sounds like you might have some thoughts on this if people wanted to call and needed to chat.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_02: Well you know is that fair I'd say that's pretty fair.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_02: My phone's always available and my girlfriend maybe doesn't like that but I do pick up the phone whenever it rings so give it a ring and this is our office phone number I'll go ahead and pop it up even though I know you're gonna say it 855737 Farm 855737 Farm farm 855737 Farm.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah if you've if if you need to talk some of this stuff out if you're if you're feeling like Tommy said you know if if you viewer are feeling like you're you're completely unprepared or you're uh under this or over that or you know whatever it it's it would probably behoove you to to give us a call trying to figure out how to feed all them cattles can't be can't be easy Jed leave it leave us with something here you've been busy today too haven't you yeah it's been an interesting day to try and get people protect protection and signed up and and you know protecting this 2026 crop and even looking forward to 2027.
• 34:31
  SPEAKER_02: Make sure and pay attention to those back months folks there's a lot going on there and you know as a whole the best thing you can do is stay informed if you are a subscriber to the show which I know a lot of our subscribers just can't get enough of you Davis so they watch the free one as well all we have a lot available to you and I have them all popped up here.
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_02: We do just a general market talk you know about every week every other week where we just pop on talk for 15 minutes and text that out to premium subscribers every single day we have the before the bell with Mike Sands which is our Nesvik morning conference call you know Mike talks for about five minutes on what's happening cash cutout kills things like that all about and that is solid gold it's it's all it's it's all prime you might just say you know there's no fat on that whatsoever.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah and there's it's there's a reason we start our day every day with Mike Sands and I think you know it's a part of a nutrition nutritious breath breakfast so make sure and get that and then you know the Fat Tuesday show I do every week with Mike Sands is just more of an in-depth kind of forward looking cattle show where we go through a bunch of charts and cattle on feed numbers and I do the Tom Leffler Friday futures report every other week tom talks we talk about every agricultural commodity Tom's a broker been doing it for a long time and a heck of a trader he's good stuff.
• 35:54
  SPEAKER_03: Yep got a lot got a lot well and and speaking of of a nutritious breakfast I've I've taken up the habit and I kind of switched between like pork sausage and and ground beef but I've been doing ground beef with just a little bit of rice like a little white rice in it and then I put a couple fried eggs on top of it and that's what I've been eating for breakfast.
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_02: And I'm telling you Jed I feel like I could lift a car right now I'll tell you this when I was in junior college I lived with a three other guys that also you know raised cattle and grew up on cattle operations and so our deep freezers were stocked full of beef.
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_02: We ran out of bacon and sausage pretty often so we invented the way for the cattle market to surpass surpass the hog feeders is breakfast beef.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yes you'd have ground beef over hash browns and eggs about two or three times a week.
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_02: Oh yeah we thought we were pretty smart and onto something there.
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_03: Probably the reason I gained a freshman 30 but uh all muscle it was all muscle I guarantee you that was all muscle and it was all worth it let me ask you about the weather let's move into that um you're up uh you're up around Joliet and we just heard we heard from uh Joe that it's kind of drying out it got hot they they kind of welcome a little drying there what's your what's your story up there in Joliet?
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_02: You know uh it felt a couple weeks ago like maybe fall was starting to you know yeah come around and it's like no it's still summertime yeah it got hot and humid here.
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah we're awful dry down here in KC and I if I look at my phone it's gonna be another week before we get out of the high 90s and there's there's just no rain in sight.
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_03: It's uh it's quite the system here.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_03: Let's let's talk about the National Weather Service who is expecting several complexes of thunderstorms some severe with heavy rainfall to impact areas from the northern Great Plains Great Lakes Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic looks like a lot of the heavier stuff is going to be up further north Scani looks like you can get some there and even into Michigan and then points east of there this threat will shift toward the Carolinas on Friday.
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_03: Hello Carolinas heavy rainfall remnants of Edward continues for portions of eastern Texas through today saw some stuff on the floods in Texas man thoughts and prayers go out to you all in between these systems a dome of high pressure and heat for central and eastern states there's there's the heat map that we've been talking about Texas I mean it's hot down there.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_03: Look at Kansas though Kansas kind of fell out of the headlines just a little bit I guess everybody assumes well now it's just going to be hot forever out there in western and central Kansas um not necessarily always the case but uh certainly is is now so we'll I guess we'll just we'll just have to wait through it.
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_03: Jed I wonder since I've got you here can I interest you in some uh items of mild interest I'm always mildly interested from this day on September 3rd on this day in 1777 during the battle of Cooch's bridge the flag of the United States was flown in battle for the very first time I'm not sure if that's the actual flag itself but I imagine after a revolutionary war battle it probably looked about looked about like that here's a good one Cornelius Startwote was granted his first patent in 1869 for the invention of the waffle iron chicken and waffles now that'll that'll set you up for a good day too I'm not even gonna lie little waffle will do you some good in 1928 baseball hall of famer Ty Cobb hit his 4191st and final career hit.
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_03: And here's something interesting Jed do you watch you watch Star Trek are you into the sci-fi type stuff?
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_03: I'll watch Star Wars every now and then I'm not a huge Star Trek fan button Star Wars movies yeah well according to uh popculture madness.com Gene Roddenberry the the inventor of Star Trek devised the names for his characters Khan which is actually Khan Nunyan Singh and Commander Data's father from Star Trek Next Generation Nunyan Sung he devised those names in hopes that a friend he had met in World War II would recognize his name and get in touch with him.
• 40:33
  SPEAKER_03: I mean that's quite the long distance dedication there.
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_03: It's pretty smart when you think about it though the number of people that that reached you would think so and I don't know no word on whether it worked or not I suppose maybe it would have said in the article if it had but I don't know Jed thanks uh thanks for your perspective dude um I I love your your in-depth look at the cattle markets but also just the cattle business you know the whole cattle concern is a is a big part of your life and I know that you are personally uh very very involved in cattle husbandry and and the like and so uh we really appreciate you being so forthcoming and willing to share share what's on your mind with us today brother well thanks for having me on Davis I'll let you close everything up Roger that well thanks to trade the news as well they keep my squad updated on the news that moves the markets get useful news from trade the news use trade the news to get news you can use and may I direct you to agbol.com we said it before earlier in the program but you can dig deeper with Ag Bull Intel 855737 Farm take the markets by the horns with agbol dot com and hey if you can't get enough Jed news first thing tomorrow morning Jed will be back to get you set up with the taste of that Ag Bull Intel and then I've got my old friend Greg Mulheron from Newell Machinery tomorrow afternoon come on back tomorrow for some more Ag Squawk y'all