Latest / The Schmidt Show PDX / Audit This
Transcript
- 0:02SPEAKER_01: Hi, I'm Leif Olson, and I run theliferecording.com.
- 0:09I record audio-only life stories of parents and grandparents
- 0:14and set them to original music.
- 0:17It's a clean,
- 0:18unbroken hour to preserve your parents' voices before they're
- 0:22gone.
- 0:24SPEAKER_01: Let's record your mom's laugh.
- 0:27SPEAKER_01: Visit theliferecording.com today.
- 0:51SPEAKER_02: Welcome back to the Schmidt Show PDX.
- 0:53SPEAKER_02: I'm Mike Schmidt,
- 0:54SPEAKER_02: former district attorney of Multnomah County,
- 0:56SPEAKER_02: part-time podcaster and soon to be beekeeper once again.
- 1:00SPEAKER_02: But that's a longer story for another day.
- 1:02SPEAKER_02: Today we are talking taxes.
- 1:04SPEAKER_02: Tis the season, right?
- 1:05We are going to have a real conversation about what we're
- 1:07paying and what we're
- 1:08getting and whether anyone is being straight with us about the
- 1:11trade-offs.
- 1:12SPEAKER_02: It's been offset that there isn't a tax hike Portland voters don't like.
- 1:17SPEAKER_02: And for a while, that was kind of true.
- 1:18SPEAKER_02: In 2020, we voted for a tax to fund homeless services.
- 1:21SPEAKER_02: We voted for a tax to fund preschool for our kids.
- 1:24SPEAKER_02: We voted for a tax to fund green energy.
- 1:26SPEAKER_02: And we did it all in a single election cycle.
- 1:29SPEAKER_02: But something has shifted.
- 1:30The economic headwinds that started after the pandemic haven't
- 1:33fully let up.
- 1:34SPEAKER_02: Inflation has hit working families hard,
- 1:37SPEAKER_02: the jobs market is soft,
- 1:39SPEAKER_02: and the mood around here,
- 1:40SPEAKER_02: well,
- 1:41SPEAKER_02: let's just call it a little bit spicy.
- 1:43SPEAKER_02: Some candidates are running
- 1:44SPEAKER_02: against Portland's tax burden, and they're getting traction.
- 1:47Even the governor,
- 1:48the top Democrat in Oregon,
- 1:49Tina Kotek,
- 1:50has started taking shots.
- 1:51She sent a letter to the Multnomah County chair in June calling
- 1:54the Preschool for
- 1:55SPEAKER_02: All program,
- 1:56SPEAKER_02: the one voters passed with 64% of the vote just four years ago,
- 2:00SPEAKER_02: unsustainable.
- 2:01SPEAKER_02: She's put together a panel of mostly corporate executives to make tax
- 2:04SPEAKER_02: recommendations for Portland,
- 2:05and legislators took a run at killing Preschool for All
- 2:08outright at the second in
- 2:10SPEAKER_02: the last legislative session.
- 2:13SPEAKER_02: At the same time,
- 2:13SPEAKER_02: and this is the part that doesn't always make it into the conversation,
- 2:16the federal government has also signed what they call the Big
- 2:19Beautiful Bill that
- 2:20will strip Oregon of up to $15 billion in healthcare funding
- 2:24over the next decade.
- 2:26SPEAKER_02: One in three Oregonians is on Medicaid,
- 2:28SPEAKER_02: where the state most likely to lose the highest percentage of enrollees.
- 2:32And the city and the county are both staring down structural
- 2:35budget deficits.
- 2:37So the questions that we want to talk about today is what's
- 2:39actually true?
- 2:40SPEAKER_02: Because in a moment like this,
- 2:41SPEAKER_02: with real money on the table and real services at stake,
- 2:44SPEAKER_02: the difference between fact and political spin matters a lot.
- 2:49SPEAKER_02: My guest today has done the research.
- 2:51Marina Kaminski is the research director at the North Star
- 2:54Civic Foundation,
- 2:55SPEAKER_02: which is the home of the Bull Run Center,
- 2:58SPEAKER_02: one of Portland's most interesting civic leadership spaces.
- 3:01North Star has spent years studying Oregon and Portland and
- 3:05what our local
- 3:05governments actually do and how public investment does or does
- 3:08not serve our
- 3:09SPEAKER_02: communities.
- 3:15SPEAKER_02: Marina, welcome to the show.
- 3:16SPEAKER_00: Thank you so much for having me.
- 3:18SPEAKER_02: Awesome.
- 3:19SPEAKER_02: Well,
- 3:19SPEAKER_02: hey,
- 3:19SPEAKER_02: just to start off,
- 3:20SPEAKER_02: I said a little bit about North Star and Bull Run,
- 3:23SPEAKER_02: but why don't you tell us who you are,
- 3:24SPEAKER_02: a little bit about yourself,
- 3:26SPEAKER_02: and then maybe a little bit about those organizations.
- 3:28SPEAKER_00: Sure.
- 3:29SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
- 3:30SPEAKER_00: Yes, my name is Marina.
- 3:31I have a background in economics from Reed College,
- 3:34so I've been in the area for a while.
- 3:36SPEAKER_00: I have a graduate degree in public administration from the University of
- 3:39SPEAKER_00: Washington,
- 3:40and I joined Northstar first as a special projects coordinator
- 3:46in 2017 and began
- 3:47working with the research on economic and democracy policy that
- 3:52they do there.
- 3:54SPEAKER_00: and have been in the area focused on that ever since.
- 3:59SPEAKER_00: Oh, and I'll add too, you mentioned beekeeping.
- 4:01I currently live on Savi Island with a horse and a pony and a
- 4:06bunch of chickens.
- 4:07So that is another area of my life outside of policy and
- 4:11research that I really enjoy.
- 4:13SPEAKER_02: Well, good.
- 4:14SPEAKER_02: You're not one dimensional.
- 4:15SPEAKER_02: You have many facets.
- 4:16SPEAKER_02: That's good to know.
- 4:18SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mentioned beekeeping.
- 4:19SPEAKER_02: I tried my hand at amateur beekeeping last season.
- 4:26SPEAKER_02: A friend of mine actually helped me capture a
- 4:28SPEAKER_02: a migrating swarm.
- 4:30We successfully did that and transplanted it into my box and
- 4:35things were going great.
- 4:36SPEAKER_02: I loved it.
- 4:36SPEAKER_02: I had so much fun just going into the backyard and watching them.
- 4:40SPEAKER_02: It's fascinating to me.
- 4:42SPEAKER_02: They take the same flight paths.
- 4:45When they come back and they're burdened with pollen,
- 4:48they almost look drunk.
- 4:51SPEAKER_02: They have trouble sometimes executing the landing.
- 4:53SPEAKER_02: It's just so much fun to watch them.
- 4:55SPEAKER_02: And then my hive was assassinated by wasps or hornets,
- 5:02probably hornets or yellow jackets actually is probably what
- 5:06took them out.
- 5:06SPEAKER_02: And I was devastated.
- 5:08SPEAKER_01: Oh no.
- 5:08SPEAKER_02: My poor hive, my queen.
- 5:10SPEAKER_02: I think they went in there and assassinated her.
- 5:13SPEAKER_02: And then it was a brutal fight.
- 5:14SPEAKER_02: I caught some of it on live video footage,
- 5:17SPEAKER_02: which I'm happy to show you after we're done with this episode.
- 5:22SPEAKER_02: But I was devastated.
- 5:23SPEAKER_02: I
- 5:23SPEAKER_02: had to pack it all up, but I'm committed.
- 5:26SPEAKER_02: I'm already signed up.
- 5:27SPEAKER_02: This time I'm not going to rely on capturing a hive in the wild.
- 5:31I've signed up with local beekeepers to get a neck from them
- 5:35and I'll be getting it
- 5:36SPEAKER_02: in a couple of weeks.
- 5:37And now I've gone on way too much about beekeeping,
- 5:39but I'm very excited about this.
- 5:42SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 5:42SPEAKER_00: Good luck.
- 5:43SPEAKER_00: Good luck.
- 5:44And I'm assuming there's nothing you can do to intervene in a
- 5:46situation where
- 5:49SPEAKER_00: The queen is being attacked.
- 5:50SPEAKER_02: It seemed ill-advised, yeah.
- 5:52SPEAKER_02: I don't know that my bees,
- 5:53SPEAKER_02: whom I loved,
- 5:54SPEAKER_02: would have perceived me as trying to be helpful in that moment.
- 5:58SPEAKER_02: Right, yes, yes.
- 5:59SPEAKER_02: But it was really traumatic.
- 6:01SPEAKER_02: All right, well, that's not what we're here to talk about, although...
- 6:04SPEAKER_02: That would be a fun episode.
- 6:06What we are here to talk about is a little bit about the local
- 6:10tax landscape.
- 6:11SPEAKER_02: And you've really kind of done a deep dive into this topic.
- 6:15SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 6:15SPEAKER_02: So give us a little bit.
- 6:16SPEAKER_02: What has your research been about?
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 6:19SPEAKER_00: So back before the pandemic,
- 6:21I spent a couple of years with folks at PSU looking into the
- 6:29current service level
- 6:30SPEAKER_00: of local governments across the state.
- 6:32SPEAKER_00: So that's counties,
- 6:33SPEAKER_00: cities,
- 6:34SPEAKER_00: school districts,
- 6:35SPEAKER_00: special service districts,
- 6:37and trying to understand would these jurisdictions be able to
- 6:41continue to provide
- 6:42SPEAKER_00: the same level of service that they did in 2018 and
- 6:45SPEAKER_00: for the next even just four years moving forward.
- 6:49SPEAKER_00: And what we found,
- 6:50SPEAKER_00: unfortunately,
- 6:51SPEAKER_00: is that no,
- 6:52SPEAKER_00: most places were not going to be able to do that,
- 6:55SPEAKER_00: given the current trajectory for revenues,
- 6:58SPEAKER_00: primarily property taxes,
- 7:00SPEAKER_00: and
- 7:00SPEAKER_00: the trajectory for expenses.
- 7:02SPEAKER_02: This is 2018.
- 7:03This was 2018 and we were looking forward to across the state,
- 7:0734 jurisdictions.
- 7:08SPEAKER_00: So looking forward to 2022, that was one piece of the research.
- 7:14SPEAKER_02: When you were,
- 7:14SPEAKER_02: sorry to interrupt you,
- 7:16SPEAKER_02: when you were doing that in 2018,
- 7:17SPEAKER_02: did you predict a pandemic for
- 7:19SPEAKER_00: No, we did not.
- 7:21SPEAKER_00: We did not predict the pandemic.
- 7:22And that was interesting because it actually masked some of the
- 7:26fiscal strain that
- 7:28jurisdictions were we anticipated they would be feeling because
- 7:32a lot of federal
- 7:33SPEAKER_00: resources were provided.
- 7:35SPEAKER_00: Unfortunately,
- 7:36SPEAKER_00: some fortunately,
- 7:37SPEAKER_00: unfortunately,
- 7:38SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
- 7:38SPEAKER_00: but a lot of jurisdictions use those federal resources to backfill.
- 7:42Well,
- 7:43this is fascinating to me because,
- 7:44I mean,
- 7:45what we will get into more is Portland.
- 7:48SPEAKER_02: Obviously,
- 7:48this is a podcast that takes place in Portland and pretty much
- 7:52focuses on issues in
- 7:54SPEAKER_02: the city.
- 7:55SPEAKER_02: But you are talking about looking at this in community.
- 7:57SPEAKER_02: across our state, seeing the structural challenges coming for them.
- 8:02SPEAKER_00: Yes.
- 8:03And I think that's actually really important to keep in mind
- 8:05when we talk about
- 8:06SPEAKER_00: what's happening in Portland,
- 8:07SPEAKER_00: because it's not just a local issue.
- 8:10It's an issue that affects jurisdictions across the state and
- 8:13across the country,
- 8:14really.
- 8:15SPEAKER_00: A lot of this is driven by
- 8:20nationwide trends and issues around service cost and pressures
- 8:24that drive up that cost.
- 8:26And I think we have to be honest when we're talking about that
- 8:29and not just blame
- 8:32SPEAKER_00: local elected leaders for the current situation.
- 8:35SPEAKER_02: Are you familiar,
- 8:36SPEAKER_02: this was some years ago now,
- 8:38SPEAKER_02: but I remember hearing 911 calls in Grants Pass,
- 8:42SPEAKER_02: Oregon,
- 8:43SPEAKER_02: where people were
- 8:46SPEAKER_02: in the process of potential very seriously being assaulted.
- 8:51SPEAKER_02: And it's very traumatic.
- 8:53SPEAKER_02: And the 911 operator said, I'm sorry, there's nobody that we can send.
- 8:58SPEAKER_02: And that was a...
- 9:00SPEAKER_02: I mean, essentially a revenue issue.
- 9:01SPEAKER_02: They didn't have the money to have sheriff's deputies on the road.
- 9:07And so in that community where taxes are incredibly low and
- 9:10voters over and over
- 9:11SPEAKER_02: and over again reject any way of raising those,
- 9:15SPEAKER_02: they simply just didn't have...
- 9:17the capacity to respond to what was a very serious criminal
- 9:21situation happening.
- 9:22SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 9:23SPEAKER_00: And that was then too, the situation hasn't gotten better.
- 9:26SPEAKER_00: It's not improved.
- 9:28So for places that are resistant to raising revenue to try to
- 9:32maintain or increase
- 9:34SPEAKER_00: service levels,
- 9:35SPEAKER_00: we just see this decreasing.
- 9:38SPEAKER_00: We see
- 9:40Sheriff's offices that only operate part time or they don't
- 9:42have enough deputies to
- 9:43SPEAKER_00: respond to the number of calls.
- 9:45And those have to be triaged in a way that you end up with
- 9:49calls that seem really
- 9:50SPEAKER_00: shocking that you would expect someone to respond to.
- 9:52SPEAKER_00: And nobody is available to do that.
- 9:55SPEAKER_02: Is this part of a larger trend that you're seeing?
- 9:59It seems to me that we're seeing the federal government pick up
- 10:04less and less,
- 10:05which is forcing local jurisdictions to come up with more and
- 10:09more of the revenue
- 10:10SPEAKER_02: that they need to provide the basics for their constituents.
- 10:14SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's definitely a part of it.
- 10:16Federal investment and support of state and local governments
- 10:20has been decreasing
- 10:21SPEAKER_00: over the past decade and a half,
- 10:23SPEAKER_00: maybe longer.
- 10:25SPEAKER_00: That's one piece.
- 10:27SPEAKER_00: Another major piece,
- 10:28SPEAKER_00: and again,
- 10:28SPEAKER_00: this isn't specific to Oregon,
- 10:31SPEAKER_00: but back in the 80s and 90s,
- 10:33folks that were designing public employee retirement systems
- 10:38had this idea that
- 10:40SPEAKER_00: returns would continue to be really,
- 10:42SPEAKER_00: really high in those investments.
- 10:44SPEAKER_00: So they made promises to public employees based off of that.
- 10:49SPEAKER_00: And those really generous
- 10:52SPEAKER_00: retirements are something that not just Oregon,
- 10:55SPEAKER_00: but other states are accountable for paying and we have to pay.
- 10:58There's no way around it,
- 11:00but we didn't see the returns that folks at that time
- 11:04anticipated.
- 11:05SPEAKER_00: So what that has meant is that
- 11:09jurisdictions essentially need to pull more and more resources
- 11:12from payroll to go
- 11:14SPEAKER_00: towards paying those retired public employees.
- 11:17SPEAKER_02: I heard a stat the other day about Portland Public Schools,
- 11:21SPEAKER_02: PPS,
- 11:22SPEAKER_02: and my memory's a little foggy,
- 11:24SPEAKER_02: maybe you know it.
- 11:25SPEAKER_02: Something like almost 30% of their budget has to go to cover
- 11:29SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 11:30SPEAKER_02: Retired employees.
- 11:32SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's correct.
- 11:33SPEAKER_00: And that's, again, not just it's not a Portland public schools problem.
- 11:36SPEAKER_00: It's not a city of Portland problem.
- 11:38SPEAKER_00: It's not even a state of Oregon problem.
- 11:40SPEAKER_00: This was really.
- 11:42SPEAKER_00: because of a thought process that everyone in the 80s and 90s,
- 11:46SPEAKER_00: when we had really high investment returns,
- 11:48SPEAKER_00: just expected those returns to continue.
- 11:51So if we want to point the finger at anybody,
- 11:53it really should be public leaders at that point.
- 11:57So we should point the figure at the people who set the
- 12:00retirements who are currently
- 12:02SPEAKER_00: Not even the retired folks.
- 12:07I think it's the policymakers from the 80s and 90s who thought
- 12:10we would be able to
- 12:12SPEAKER_00: pay these really generous amounts,
- 12:14SPEAKER_00: which would be great.
- 12:15SPEAKER_00: I mean, our public employees deserve support in retirement.
- 12:19SPEAKER_00: They deserve to be able to retire.
- 12:22It was just that the plan that was envisioned at that point is
- 12:27not sustainable and
- 12:29SPEAKER_00: hasn't been sustainable.
- 12:30And that's hitting governments,
- 12:31not only across our state,
- 12:33but across states across the country.
- 12:35And actually,
- 12:36in other states,
- 12:37the situation is even worse,
- 12:39if you can believe that.
- 12:41SPEAKER_02: Wow.
- 12:41SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 12:42SPEAKER_02: Well, that is great background context.
- 12:45SPEAKER_02: Let's zoom in to Portland.
- 12:46SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 12:47SPEAKER_02: Um,
- 12:47cause I know you've taken a deep dive and what I have seen over
- 12:51and over again in
- 12:52SPEAKER_02: the media on social media,
- 12:54SPEAKER_02: you know,
- 12:55there's a person running for governor on the Republican party
- 12:59and he's throwing out
- 12:59SPEAKER_02: quotes right now that are,
- 13:01SPEAKER_02: you know,
- 13:01Portland is either the most tax place in the country or the
- 13:04second highest tax
- 13:05SPEAKER_02: place in the country.
- 13:07SPEAKER_02: Um, and, um,
- 13:08SPEAKER_02: you know,
- 13:08of course I do a little bit of research into these claims and
- 13:11it's not that he's
- 13:12SPEAKER_02: necessarily wrong,
- 13:12SPEAKER_02: but it depends what you're talking about.
- 13:14SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 13:15SPEAKER_02: But you've kind of dove into some of that.
- 13:17So tell us a little bit about your work around looking at
- 13:19Portland's tax burden.
- 13:20SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 13:22SPEAKER_00: So I'll say just to respond directly to that statement,
- 13:27a lot of folks really focus in on Portland's income tax as
- 13:31being one of the highest
- 13:33SPEAKER_00: in the country.
- 13:34SPEAKER_00: And I did dig around and I wanted to make sure I got all of this
- 13:39SPEAKER_00: Correct.
- 13:39SPEAKER_00: And then could report it accurately.
- 13:41SPEAKER_00: But so in terms of the highest personal income tax bracket,
- 13:45SPEAKER_00: Portland is ranked sixth in the country.
- 13:47There are several states that have a higher rate for their
- 13:51highest brackets.
- 13:53SPEAKER_00: That said,
- 13:54it is true that between the range of about four thousand and
- 13:58seventy thousand,
- 13:59SPEAKER_00: Portland taxes those folks the highest in terms of income taxes only.
- 14:05That does not mean that that group of people actually pays the
- 14:09highest taxes to
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: either the city or the state.
- 14:12SPEAKER_00: So I might have said that wrong.
- 14:15SPEAKER_00: I'm just talking about the Oregon piece right now.
- 14:19SPEAKER_02: Not the city.
- 14:19SPEAKER_00: Not the city.
- 14:20SPEAKER_00: So just in terms of state taxes.
- 14:22SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 14:24SPEAKER_00: Compared to other places,
- 14:26SPEAKER_00: Oregon taxes folks in the $4,000 to $70,000 range,
- 14:31SPEAKER_00: the highest in personal income taxes only.
- 14:34That said,
- 14:35other states like Minnesota have a 5% to 6% income tax rate for
- 14:42that population.
- 14:43SPEAKER_00: And then they also charge 6% in sales tax.
- 14:48SPEAKER_00: Folks that earn that amount spend most of their money in a year.
- 14:53So they're probably paying higher state taxes overall than
- 14:57folks in Oregon who are
- 14:58SPEAKER_00: paying an 8% income tax rate.
- 15:01So I think that's important to keep in mind that we don't have
- 15:05a state sales tax.
- 15:08And when we're talking about the total resources that residents
- 15:15pay in taxes,
- 15:17SPEAKER_00: That comes from various sources in other places.
- 15:19SPEAKER_00: In Oregon, it primarily comes from income and property taxes.
- 15:23So when somebody says our income tax is the highest or this
- 15:26high or whatever,
- 15:28true.
- 15:29But when you look at the tax burden that individuals or
- 15:33families are facing,
- 15:34SPEAKER_02: it's not as clear cut of a picture or actually...
- 15:38SPEAKER_02: we're not in that high range.
- 15:40SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 15:41SPEAKER_00: And overall,
- 15:42SPEAKER_00: and then this is speaking more to Portland specifically,
- 15:45SPEAKER_00: if we add up all of the income,
- 15:50SPEAKER_00: property,
- 15:51SPEAKER_00: taxes,
- 15:52SPEAKER_00: charges,
- 15:53SPEAKER_00: utilities,
- 15:54SPEAKER_00: fees,
- 15:55SPEAKER_00: and then the state and local tax burden,
- 15:58SPEAKER_00: Portlanders pay in the 59th percentile
- 16:04This is compared to 150 other cities that have a population of
- 16:09200,000 or more.
- 16:11So if we look at the total obligation per capita as a percent
- 16:16of total mean income
- 16:19SPEAKER_00: for a location,
- 16:20SPEAKER_00: Portland ranks 83rd in that list of 150.
- 16:23SPEAKER_00: Wow.
- 16:23SPEAKER_00: That is not the perception.
- 16:24SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 16:30SPEAKER_00: Right, right, right, right.
- 16:31And the interesting thing about that too is I think a lot of
- 16:37other places,
- 16:38SPEAKER_00: not only do they rely on sales taxes,
- 16:41SPEAKER_00: which we don't have,
- 16:42SPEAKER_00: but they also rely on charges for highways,
- 16:46SPEAKER_00: for parks and rec,
- 16:48SPEAKER_00: for community development.
- 16:49SPEAKER_00: Portland really does not.
- 16:51SPEAKER_00: So it's more of a question.
- 16:53SPEAKER_02: I grew up in New York.
- 16:55SPEAKER_02: And so we had a sales tax.
- 16:56SPEAKER_02: Right.
- 16:56SPEAKER_02: So I love that Oregon doesn't have sales tax.
- 16:59SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 17:00SPEAKER_02: But also, like you're saying, I mean, we had thruways.
- 17:02We had to pay a toll every time we hopped on the highway to get
- 17:05from my town to the city over.
- 17:08SPEAKER_02: And that's not something that exists here.
- 17:10SPEAKER_02: No.
- 17:11SPEAKER_02: In Oregon.
- 17:11SPEAKER_00: And I think that actually speaks to the values of the city.
- 17:16SPEAKER_00: Those charges,
- 17:18SPEAKER_00: just like sales tax,
- 17:20SPEAKER_00: tend to be more regressive because everybody who uses that thoroughfare,
- 17:25SPEAKER_00: who uses the park,
- 17:27SPEAKER_00: they pay the same amount,
- 17:28SPEAKER_00: whether they're low or high income.
- 17:32SPEAKER_00: It seems that in Portland,
- 17:33we've really placed a value on trying to ask folks who earn
- 17:38more to pay less.
- 17:43a share of their income that is comparable to what lower income
- 17:47folks are paying.
- 17:48SPEAKER_00: Whereas in other places,
- 17:49lower income folks end up paying a much higher overall share of
- 17:54their income to
- 17:55taxes or charges because there's a sales tax and then because
- 17:59they're having to pay
- 18:01SPEAKER_00: all of these fees and charges at the same rate as everyone else.
- 18:05SPEAKER_02: So in your work,
- 18:06you mentioned that Portland is around the 59th percentile if
- 18:10you take into account
- 18:11SPEAKER_02: all of these things.
- 18:11SPEAKER_02: One of the things that I heard you say was utilities.
- 18:15SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 18:15SPEAKER_02: So I love that because I think we so frequently...
- 18:19And this conversation has dominated around looking at a
- 18:22specific tax and then
- 18:24SPEAKER_02: saying,
- 18:24SPEAKER_02: see,
- 18:25SPEAKER_02: we're the highest tax in the country.
- 18:27SPEAKER_02: And people are trying to make political hay out of that.
- 18:29But it is an entire system of things that you get in return for
- 18:35your money.
- 18:37And the taxes or fees or charges that you have to pay on
- 18:40utilities is part of that package.
- 18:42SPEAKER_02: And utilities are publicly owned in some regards, right?
- 18:46SPEAKER_00: Yeah, a lot of most of them.
- 18:47SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 18:48SPEAKER_02: And so,
- 18:48SPEAKER_02: I mean,
- 18:48SPEAKER_02: so that's another,
- 18:49I think that has been my frustration with this conversation is
- 18:54it hasn't been
- 18:55around the entire basket of fees and taxes and charges and
- 18:59everything that people
- 19:00SPEAKER_02: have to pay to,
- 19:02SPEAKER_02: that you have to pay.
- 19:03SPEAKER_02: You have no choice.
- 19:03SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's, it's your income tax.
- 19:05Yes,
- 19:05but it's your property and it's all the fees and other things
- 19:08that we get charged.
- 19:09SPEAKER_02: And that really seems to me to be the most relevant comparison.
- 19:13SPEAKER_02: If you're going to compare a city to a city.
- 19:15SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 19:16SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 19:16SPEAKER_00: I don't think it's,
- 19:18SPEAKER_00: I think it's a bit disingenuous to look at one specific tax and say,
- 19:22SPEAKER_00: see,
- 19:22this is super high and not look at overall how much are people
- 19:27being charged,
- 19:28SPEAKER_00: uh,
- 19:28SPEAKER_00: compared in Portland compared to people in other places.
- 19:31SPEAKER_02: And so your analysis putting,
- 19:33SPEAKER_02: uh,
- 19:33SPEAKER_02: Portland taxpayers at the 59th percentile,
- 19:36does that include our newer taxes that we've added on our
- 19:39preschool for all our
- 19:41SPEAKER_02: supportive housing services?
- 19:43SPEAKER_00: So that included, that includes, um,
- 19:46SPEAKER_00: Income taxes on businesses as well.
- 19:48So the whole suite of revenue sources that our county and city
- 19:54depend on and our
- 19:55SPEAKER_00: school districts depend on goes into that analysis.
- 19:59SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 20:01SPEAKER_00: And this data comes from the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
- 20:06What they've done essentially is they've collected all of these
- 20:08revenue sources and
- 20:10then calculated per capita how much each city charges their
- 20:15residents or not just
- 20:16SPEAKER_00: the city,
- 20:16SPEAKER_00: but again,
- 20:17SPEAKER_00: how much residents pay overall for all of these taxes.
- 20:20SPEAKER_00: This data that I'm referencing is from 2023.
- 20:23SPEAKER_00: So it is post preschool for all and PSAF and yeah.
- 20:28SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 20:29SPEAKER_02: And we are talking right now a lot about individuals and families.
- 20:33SPEAKER_02: We're not necessarily talking about the business side of the equation,
- 20:37which that's not as much your expertise or at least the
- 20:40research that you've done.
- 20:41SPEAKER_00: I haven't done a lot of research on the business side of things.
- 20:44SPEAKER_00: What I will say is, again, I think...
- 20:47SPEAKER_00: So not a lot of places charge business income tax.
- 20:52SPEAKER_00: That's just not as common.
- 20:55SPEAKER_00: That said...
- 20:58If they're not charging a business income tax,
- 20:59they are charging a sales tax.
- 21:01SPEAKER_00: They're getting it some other way.
- 21:02SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they are getting it some other way.
- 21:04And what's really tricky is to compare what businesses pay in
- 21:10Portland to other
- 21:11SPEAKER_00: places when other places have a sales tax,
- 21:14SPEAKER_00: for instance.
- 21:14So a sales tax,
- 21:16usually folks think,
- 21:17oh,
- 21:17the consumer pays that,
- 21:18which yes,
- 21:19they do.
- 21:20SPEAKER_00: But the burden of that tax is
- 21:24SPEAKER_00: can be held by businesses.
- 21:26It just depends really on what,
- 21:28sorry,
- 21:28this is going to get a little wonky.
- 21:30SPEAKER_00: The elasticity of demand is for a product.
- 21:33So if demand is really inelastic,
- 21:36meaning like gas,
- 21:38for instance,
- 21:38got to have it.
- 21:39SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 21:39SPEAKER_00: People, they can't easily change their commutes every day.
- 21:43SPEAKER_00: That tax will be born primarily by the consumer.
- 21:47SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 21:48SPEAKER_00: If it's something that consumers don't need to have as much,
- 21:53SPEAKER_00: like let's say it's- Baseball cards.
- 21:55SPEAKER_00: Sure.
- 21:56SPEAKER_00: That sales tax will be borne primarily by the producer.
- 22:03SPEAKER_02: Got it.
- 22:04SPEAKER_02: Interesting.
- 22:06SPEAKER_02: So-
- 22:08SPEAKER_02: I find this fascinating because one,
- 22:10SPEAKER_02: this is not the conversation that I'm hearing in local politics,
- 22:13even from the governor of this state seems to be very focused
- 22:16on the need to reduce
- 22:17SPEAKER_02: taxes.
- 22:18And part of the reason that I'm hearing why taxes need to be
- 22:22reduced are taxes.
- 22:23SPEAKER_02: burden needs to be reduced.
- 22:24SPEAKER_02: Not only is it being framed as one of the highest in the country,
- 22:29SPEAKER_02: but that people are choosing to leave.
- 22:32SPEAKER_02: I know that's not necessarily your area of research,
- 22:35SPEAKER_02: but I'm sure you've come across some research as you
- 22:38SPEAKER_02: have dove into some of these tax questions.
- 22:40SPEAKER_02: What are you seeing out there about people leaving based on taxes?
- 22:44SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 22:45SPEAKER_00: Professor John Roark,
- 22:47SPEAKER_00: he's an economics professor at Reed College,
- 22:49SPEAKER_00: just released some research on this.
- 22:52What they tried to do in that paper was really dig in to
- 22:56understand what the impact
- 22:58SPEAKER_00: of preschool for all has been on people who
- 23:02SPEAKER_00: migrating or leaving the county.
- 23:04It's challenging because Preschool for All came about around
- 23:08the same time that we
- 23:10SPEAKER_00: had a pandemic.
- 23:11SPEAKER_00: There were racial protests in the city.
- 23:15SPEAKER_00: We've had a mental health.
- 23:17health crisis,
- 23:18a homelessness crisis,
- 23:19and all of these things came to a head at the same time.
- 23:21SPEAKER_00: So it's really hard to tease out.
- 23:23SPEAKER_02: I think they call that it's noisy data.
- 23:25SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
- 23:26So this paper really tried to isolate the impact of just
- 23:30preschool for all.
- 23:31SPEAKER_00: And again, with the caveat that it's really challenging to do that.
- 23:35They did find that some high income households have left the
- 23:40county,
- 23:41but I think it's hard to
- 23:45really move away from all of the other things that were
- 23:47happening at that time and,
- 23:49and,
- 23:49um,
- 23:51SPEAKER_02: I've seen some back and forth from some of the elected officials,
- 23:55SPEAKER_02: uh,
- 23:55SPEAKER_02: who have been,
- 23:56SPEAKER_02: um,
- 23:56SPEAKER_02: corresponding through the media on this topic.
- 23:59SPEAKER_02: Um,
- 24:00and the most recent I saw was that actually maybe more people
- 24:04were moving into
- 24:05SPEAKER_02: Multnomah County and not a huge amount,
- 24:07SPEAKER_02: but more.
- 24:08SPEAKER_02: And so it, it does seem to be noisy.
- 24:10Well,
- 24:11and I think so,
- 24:12um,
- 24:13his work for instance,
- 24:14found no impact on people moving in.
- 24:17SPEAKER_00: So, um, I think I'm getting that correctly.
- 24:20SPEAKER_00: Uh,
- 24:21Where they saw an impact was folks who were already in the
- 24:23county moving out,
- 24:24SPEAKER_00: but that the immigration has stayed the same.
- 24:28SPEAKER_00: That said,
- 24:29SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 24:29SPEAKER_00: if immigration is constant and more people are leaving,
- 24:32SPEAKER_00: that is they calculated an overall revenue loss to the state,
- 24:36SPEAKER_00: actually,
- 24:36SPEAKER_00: from people not just leaving the county,
- 24:38SPEAKER_00: but a lot of them potentially moving to Vancouver,
- 24:41SPEAKER_00: Washington.
- 24:41SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 24:43SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that's another tricky aspect of Portland's tax approach.
- 24:50SPEAKER_02: You know, there's both the Multnomah County and the Portland City taxes.
- 24:55SPEAKER_02: And then there's, so then that's compared to, I think,
- 24:59SPEAKER_02: some of our surrounding metropolitan area.
- 25:01SPEAKER_02: So Washington County, Clackamas County.
- 25:05But then there's just hop across the river and you don't have
- 25:08to pay income tax at
- 25:10SPEAKER_02: all,
- 25:10yet you can still work and play and enjoy all the great things
- 25:15that Portland
- 25:16SPEAKER_02: provides.
- 25:17SPEAKER_02: That seems like a real, what do they call that?
- 25:19SPEAKER_02: Like a free rider problem or something like that.
- 25:23SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 25:23SPEAKER_00: And I, you know, there's this narrative, right?
- 25:26SPEAKER_00: That people will
- 25:27Live in Vancouver and then shop in Portland because they can
- 25:31avoid sales tax and
- 25:34SPEAKER_00: avoid income tax if they're not also working in Portland.
- 25:38SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 25:38SPEAKER_02: If that was true, you might assume that Vancouver has no businesses.
- 25:43SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 25:45But I think they do have grocery stores and they do have other
- 25:48types of stores.
- 25:49SPEAKER_02: So clearly people are still shopping where they live.
- 25:52SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I don't know to what extent that narrative is real.
- 25:55SPEAKER_00: I haven't researched it.
- 25:58SPEAKER_02: But it does, I think...
- 26:00SPEAKER_02: Make it tricky for policymakers here when they are considering,
- 26:05SPEAKER_02: you know,
- 26:06SPEAKER_02: maybe bringing up a new tax for voters to consider that.
- 26:10SPEAKER_02: Are we sufficiently taking into account our neighboring jurisdictions?
- 26:15SPEAKER_02: Not just Washington, but a Washington County or a Clackamas County.
- 26:20SPEAKER_02: We do have the metro government system,
- 26:23SPEAKER_02: which is a little bit unique,
- 26:25SPEAKER_02: which is where our supportive housing services tax goes.
- 26:32Washington County and Clackamas County pay into that and also
- 26:35benefit from it.
- 26:36But should we have more of a kind of metro conversation when
- 26:41we're looking at taxes
- 26:42SPEAKER_02: as opposed to like a city led conversation?
- 26:45SPEAKER_02: Is that something that you might encourage policymakers to consider?
- 26:49SPEAKER_00: I think it makes sense to look at it.
- 26:51SPEAKER_00: But I also,
- 26:52SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 26:52having a varied tax system in different places allows residents
- 26:57to choose what
- 26:58SPEAKER_00: level of service they want to receive.
- 27:00SPEAKER_00: So, you know,
- 27:03SPEAKER_00: Places like the circles back to the beginning of our conversation,
- 27:06SPEAKER_00: places that collect less revenue overall tend to provide fewer services.
- 27:11SPEAKER_00: And,
- 27:12SPEAKER_00: um,
- 27:13SPEAKER_00: folks can kind of decide like,
- 27:15what is the level of service that makes sense for me and what I
- 27:19want to benefit
- 27:20SPEAKER_00: from in my community?
- 27:21SPEAKER_00: And, um,
- 27:24SPEAKER_00: Well,
- 27:26I'm so glad that we've circled back to that because I do really
- 27:29think that that is
- 27:30SPEAKER_02: maybe a less spoken part of this conversation.
- 27:35I think a lot of folks want to jump to we're the worst in the
- 27:38country or we're the
- 27:39SPEAKER_02: 50th in the country,
- 27:40SPEAKER_02: whatever it is.
- 27:41SPEAKER_02: People love to do comparisons.
- 27:43SPEAKER_02: Really,
- 27:44SPEAKER_02: at the end of the day,
- 27:44SPEAKER_02: the question is,
- 27:45SPEAKER_02: what are the services I'm receiving in return for the taxes that I pay?
- 27:51SPEAKER_02: Do I think that's worth it or not?
- 27:55SPEAKER_02: I've heard a lot of frustration around those issues.
- 28:01SPEAKER_02: Take the preschool for all tax, for example.
- 28:03I think part of the frustration that I've heard people voicing
- 28:06is that it's not
- 28:08SPEAKER_02: actually for all.
- 28:09SPEAKER_02: At this point,
- 28:10it's the rollout is slow and there are big surpluses of money
- 28:16that are sitting
- 28:17SPEAKER_02: there for this tax.
- 28:18SPEAKER_02: I mean,
- 28:18SPEAKER_02: similarly with the SHS funds,
- 28:21SPEAKER_02: the housing services funds as well,
- 28:23SPEAKER_02: that the surpluses are high and maybe people don't see the returns.
- 28:27SPEAKER_02: So,
- 28:28SPEAKER_02: I mean,
- 28:29does your research at all touch on how people might be feeling
- 28:33in terms of how much
- 28:34SPEAKER_02: they're paying?
- 28:34SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 28:36SPEAKER_02: if they're getting back enough for the taxes that they're paying.
- 28:39SPEAKER_02: Do you see anything out there about that?
- 28:42SPEAKER_00: So I don't have too much research on perceptions.
- 28:46SPEAKER_00: We actually are putting out a survey.
- 28:48SPEAKER_00: Well, this is a great point to talk about that.
- 28:50SPEAKER_02: Let's talk about your survey.
- 28:52SPEAKER_00: In April,
- 28:54SPEAKER_00: so mid-April,
- 28:54SPEAKER_00: the survey is going out,
- 28:56and this survey will be focused on understanding Portlanders'
- 29:00perceptions of taxes,
- 29:02SPEAKER_00: the city's growth trajectory,
- 29:06SPEAKER_00: And the quality of services that they receive.
- 29:10SPEAKER_00: So folks want to.
- 29:11SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 29:11SPEAKER_02: How.
- 29:12SPEAKER_02: So I will put the survey in the show notes.
- 29:14SPEAKER_02: We'll link to it.
- 29:15SPEAKER_02: But for folks who are driving and listening to.
- 29:17SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 29:17SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 29:18SPEAKER_00: So if you go to OVBC dot info slash.
- 29:22SPEAKER_00: You can respond to the survey.
- 29:27We would greatly appreciate it as this will inform the
- 29:30conversation around what
- 29:31SPEAKER_00: Portland does moving forward in terms of,
- 29:33SPEAKER_00: again,
- 29:33SPEAKER_00: taxes,
- 29:34SPEAKER_00: growth,
- 29:35SPEAKER_00: and how we think about providing services,
- 29:38SPEAKER_00: the level of service provision that we offer.
- 29:42One of the biggest frustrations for me has been a lot of the
- 29:46conversation and I'll
- 29:47SPEAKER_02: just use preschool for all.
- 29:48SPEAKER_02: I have two small kids.
- 29:50SPEAKER_02: A lot of the conversation has been negative about that program.
- 29:54SPEAKER_02: Oh, it's not going fast enough, isn't it?
- 29:57I would love to see that instead of focusing on the negative,
- 30:02focusing on the positive.
- 30:04How can this be a recruitment tool to get young professionals
- 30:07to move to Portland?
- 30:09SPEAKER_02: I mean, the cost, I paid a child
- 30:12SPEAKER_02: Daycare costs.
- 30:13SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's like $2,000 a month for a kid.
- 30:17SPEAKER_02: That's $24,000 a year.
- 30:20SPEAKER_02: And by the way, they have vacations just like the schools do.
- 30:25SPEAKER_02: And so they have those days off.
- 30:27Parents are sent scrambling to figure out even for they're
- 30:30paying $24,000 a year.
- 30:33I mean,
- 30:33you almost need an entire another job and income just to cover
- 30:37the cost.
- 30:38And I know that that impacts people's choices to enter the
- 30:42workforce in the labor market.
- 30:44SPEAKER_02: I mean, some people are looking at this.
- 30:45SPEAKER_02: What if you have two kids?
- 30:47SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 30:47SPEAKER_02: Right.
- 30:50It actually doesn't make sense for one of us to be in the
- 30:52workforce right now.
- 30:53SPEAKER_02: We are better off with somebody staying home.
- 30:56SPEAKER_02: Now you're setting back careers.
- 30:58SPEAKER_02: You're setting back earning potential over the long term.
- 31:00SPEAKER_02: I mean, just massive things.
- 31:02I would love to see Multnomah County aggressively going out
- 31:06there to young
- 31:07SPEAKER_02: professionals and saying,
- 31:08SPEAKER_02: this is a place you want to raise your family.
- 31:11SPEAKER_02: Look at what we're doing.
- 31:12I've been very frustrated that I don't feel like that case is
- 31:15being made anywhere.
- 31:16SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 31:16And I think the other thing that's happening is people are
- 31:19really expecting to see
- 31:20SPEAKER_00: results right away.
- 31:22SPEAKER_00: And these things take time to stand up.
- 31:25SPEAKER_00: So I think that's part of the frustration, too.
- 31:28SPEAKER_00: And there hasn't been a lot of patience around,
- 31:30SPEAKER_00: like,
- 31:32SPEAKER_00: again,
- 31:32the development of the program and trying to really make it
- 31:36accessible for
- 31:37SPEAKER_00: everybody.
- 31:37SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 31:38SPEAKER_02: Well,
- 31:38SPEAKER_02: and I think like all things,
- 31:41we were talking about the public benefits systems and when
- 31:45those benefits were
- 31:46SPEAKER_02: being contemplated,
- 31:47SPEAKER_02: the outlook was very rosy for returns on investment.
- 31:51SPEAKER_02: That has not been borne out over the long run.
- 31:54Similarly,
- 31:55I think locally,
- 31:56when we look back to 2020,
- 31:58our economy was doing relatively good.
- 32:01SPEAKER_02: We hadn't hit COVID yet.
- 32:02SPEAKER_02: People were making decisions to pass these taxes.
- 32:05SPEAKER_02: Today, it's feeling a little bit tighter.
- 32:08Will your survey kind of try to touch on some of those ambient
- 32:13economic factors?
- 32:16SPEAKER_00: A little bit.
- 32:18SPEAKER_00: The focus is really on how people are...
- 32:22SPEAKER_00: perceiving services,
- 32:24SPEAKER_00: whether they would be open to new taxes,
- 32:28SPEAKER_00: um,
- 32:28SPEAKER_00: what they think about growth and development in the city and what is,
- 32:31SPEAKER_00: um,
- 32:32growth that spurs economic development and what is maybe growth
- 32:35that concerns them.
- 32:37SPEAKER_00: Um,
- 32:38there are some questions around like how constrained are you
- 32:44feeling financially
- 32:45SPEAKER_00: right now and those types of things.
- 32:48SPEAKER_02: So what I think, um,
- 32:50My takeaways from our conversation today have been that,
- 32:52first of all,
- 32:53it's nuanced.
- 32:55SPEAKER_02: It's a little complicated.
- 32:57SPEAKER_02: If anybody comes to you and says,
- 32:59SPEAKER_02: you know,
- 33:00SPEAKER_02: well,
- 33:00Oregon is the lowest tax rate in the nation because we don't
- 33:04have sales tax.
- 33:04SPEAKER_02: We're like, well, yeah, but we have other taxes.
- 33:06SPEAKER_02: Conversely,
- 33:07SPEAKER_02: if they say Oregon's the worst in the country because of income tax,
- 33:10SPEAKER_02: it's like,
- 33:10SPEAKER_02: yes,
- 33:11SPEAKER_02: but we don't have other taxes.
- 33:12SPEAKER_02: Yes.
- 33:13So what I'm learning from our conversation today is that if
- 33:17somebody wants to be
- 33:18SPEAKER_02: informed and they are hearing some of these claims,
- 33:22SPEAKER_02: you know,
- 33:22maybe they should be a little bit skeptical and maybe
- 33:24considering more holistically
- 33:27the total overall burden in the services that we get in
- 33:30exchange for the taxes we
- 33:32SPEAKER_02: pay.
- 33:33SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 33:34SPEAKER_00: And I think,
- 33:35SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 33:35there's this other piece there that there just needs to be more
- 33:39education around
- 33:40SPEAKER_00: why the cost of providing services is growing.
- 33:44SPEAKER_00: I think that's a frustration that a lot of people feel they feel.
- 33:47SPEAKER_00: And again, this is not specific to Portland.
- 33:49SPEAKER_00: It's everywhere.
- 33:49People feel frustrated that they're being asked to pay more and
- 33:53more taxes and
- 33:54SPEAKER_00: they're not seeing anything.
- 33:56SPEAKER_00: in their minds, a proportionate response in terms of service delivery.
- 34:01SPEAKER_00: And there's just a lot of things.
- 34:03SPEAKER_00: We didn't even get into property taxes and property tax limitations,
- 34:06but there's a lot of reasons for that that don't have to do
- 34:10with decisions made by
- 34:14SPEAKER_00: current elected leaders or administrators.
- 34:18SPEAKER_02: And we didn't get into the kicker either, right?
- 34:20SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 34:21SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's a whole other thing that we could do another podcast on.
- 34:26But I think so more grace when considering the decisions that
- 34:32elected leaders are
- 34:33SPEAKER_00: making in terms of the budget.
- 34:34And also,
- 34:36I would just ask folks to really lean in and educate themselves
- 34:40on what the
- 34:44SPEAKER_00: aspects of revenue and expenditures are that are driving these tensions.
- 34:49SPEAKER_00: And then consider like, what does our community really need?
- 34:53Where might we be able to cut things that maybe less people are
- 34:58benefiting from?
- 34:59And where can we really move resources to support programs that
- 35:02are really
- 35:03SPEAKER_00: meaningful and important to the community?
- 35:05SPEAKER_02: If somebody listening to this show today wants to learn more,
- 35:09SPEAKER_02: they want to do what you suggest,
- 35:12SPEAKER_02: which is try to educate themselves,
- 35:15SPEAKER_02: maybe their friends and family,
- 35:17and be able to be a more sophisticated consumer of information
- 35:21on this topic.
- 35:22SPEAKER_02: How do you suggest,
- 35:23SPEAKER_02: I mean,
- 35:23SPEAKER_02: aside from they've just gotten a class from this episode,
- 35:27SPEAKER_02: but how should they do that?
- 35:29SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 35:30SPEAKER_00: Well,
- 35:31SPEAKER_00: it's a little bit dated now,
- 35:32but Northstar put together a website back in 2019 focused on
- 35:38this question of what
- 35:39SPEAKER_00: do local governments do?
- 35:40So the first thing is maybe just inform yourselves about which
- 35:43government provides
- 35:44SPEAKER_00: which service.
- 35:45SPEAKER_00: The city and county do different things.
- 35:48SPEAKER_02: That's one of my big pet peeves.
- 35:51SPEAKER_00: Yes.
- 35:52SPEAKER_00: So trying to understand who is responsible for what service.
- 35:56SPEAKER_00: And we have a page on that.
- 35:59SPEAKER_00: It's ournext20.org if you want to check it out.
- 36:04SPEAKER_00: And then from there,
- 36:05I think if folks are really interested in understanding how
- 36:10taxes in Portland
- 36:11SPEAKER_00: compare to other places,
- 36:12SPEAKER_00: you can go to websites like the Lincoln Land Institute's website.
- 36:18SPEAKER_00: page where they collect data on this and do the analysis for yourself.
- 36:22SPEAKER_00: You don't have to trust me or other experts.
- 36:26I think it's really important for people to look at the data
- 36:29and and feel like and
- 36:33SPEAKER_00: integrate it and not just depend on what others are saying.
- 36:36Well,
- 36:37Marina Kaminsky,
- 36:38thank you so much for coming on and talking to us about this.
- 36:42I warned you at the beginning of this episode that we like to
- 36:44play a little game at
- 36:46SPEAKER_02: the end of every episode to add a little bit of levity.
- 36:50SPEAKER_02: And we prepared a game.
- 36:51SPEAKER_02: for you called tax or fiction.
- 36:55SPEAKER_02: And so I'm going to read to you a tax that was either proposed or passed.
- 37:01SPEAKER_02: And then you are going to tell me whether or not it is real or fiction.
- 37:05SPEAKER_02: And then whether you think it's real or fiction,
- 37:07I'm going to ask you to opine on whether or not Portland voters
- 37:11would vote for that
- 37:12SPEAKER_02: tax or against it.
- 37:13SPEAKER_00: And this tax is anywhere in the world?
- 37:15SPEAKER_00: Anywhere in the world.
- 37:16SPEAKER_02: We're going to have some fun.
- 37:18SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 37:18SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 37:20SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 37:20SPEAKER_02: So starting us off,
- 37:22Oregon passed a $15 excise tax on the purchase of every new
- 37:26adult bicycle priced at
- 37:27SPEAKER_02: $200 or more,
- 37:29SPEAKER_02: making it the first state in America to tax bicycle sales.
- 37:32SPEAKER_02: True or false?
- 37:33SPEAKER_00: I think that's fiction.
- 37:35SPEAKER_00: I haven't heard of it.
- 37:36SPEAKER_02: Okay.
- 37:37SPEAKER_02: Do you think Portland would pass such a tax?
- 37:41SPEAKER_00: I don't.
- 37:42SPEAKER_00: I don't think so.
- 37:45SPEAKER_00: I could see people attempting to do it.
- 37:47SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 37:48SPEAKER_02: Well, you're one out of two.
- 37:50SPEAKER_02: I think you're right.
- 37:51SPEAKER_02: Portlanders probably wouldn't go for that.
- 37:52We love our bicycles here and taxing them seems
- 37:55counterproductive to encouraging
- 37:56SPEAKER_02: more people to ride.
- 37:58However,
- 37:58House Bill 2017 actually did tuck in a $15 flat tax on new bike
- 38:07sales over $200.
- 38:08SPEAKER_02: When was this?
- 38:10SPEAKER_02: It has raised over a million dollars in 2022.
- 38:12SPEAKER_00: Oh my gosh.
- 38:14SPEAKER_00: No, I hadn't heard about that.
- 38:16SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 38:17SPEAKER_02: Well, you're one for two.
- 38:18SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 38:19SPEAKER_02: Next question.
- 38:20Denmark passed a law requiring farmers to pay approximately
- 38:23$110 per cow per year
- 38:25SPEAKER_02: in a methane emissions tax,
- 38:28SPEAKER_02: gas tax of sorts,
- 38:29specifically targeting the gas produced by bovine digestion and
- 38:32flatulence.
- 38:34SPEAKER_00: I could see them doing that.
- 38:36SPEAKER_02: Do you think Portlanders would go for that?
- 38:38SPEAKER_00: We don't have enough cows in Portland.
- 38:41Maybe we would vote for it,
- 38:42but I don't think it would raise much revenue.
- 38:44SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 38:45SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 38:45SPEAKER_02: Well, hey, I'm going to give you two points on that.
- 38:47SPEAKER_02: You're right.
- 38:47SPEAKER_02: It is real.
- 38:48SPEAKER_02: And, you know, I think Portlanders probably would go for that, right?
- 38:55SPEAKER_02: That strikes me as something maybe our vegan community would get behind.
- 38:59SPEAKER_02: Next question.
- 39:00Spain's government imposed a fee on homeowners for generating
- 39:03their own electricity
- 39:04SPEAKER_02: using rooftop solar panels,
- 39:06essentially taxing people for harvesting the sunlight from
- 39:09their own roofs.
- 39:11SPEAKER_02: I think that's real or not.
- 39:14Um,
- 39:15I,
- 39:17it doesn't,
- 39:18I don't think they should do that,
- 39:19but I think they may have done that.
- 39:21SPEAKER_02: Um, you think Portland voters would go for that?
- 39:23SPEAKER_02: No, it is real.
- 39:26SPEAKER_02: You are correct.
- 39:27SPEAKER_02: And it has been universally mocked as the sun tax.
- 39:31SPEAKER_02: Uh,
- 39:31SPEAKER_02: and I think it was repealed in 2018 after,
- 39:34SPEAKER_02: uh,
- 39:35SPEAKER_02: they figured out also what you already figured out,
- 39:37SPEAKER_02: which is that's a bad idea.
- 39:38SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 39:40SPEAKER_02: All right, next one.
- 39:40SPEAKER_02: In New York,
- 39:41SPEAKER_02: buying a whole unsliced bagel is tax-free,
- 39:44SPEAKER_02: but the moment a bagel is sliced,
- 39:46SPEAKER_02: toasted,
- 39:46SPEAKER_02: or receives any topping,
- 39:48SPEAKER_02: including a schmear of cream cheese,
- 39:50SPEAKER_02: it becomes prepared food and therefore subject to sales tax.
- 39:56SPEAKER_00: I believe that.
- 39:58SPEAKER_02: What about Portlanders?
- 39:59SPEAKER_02: Would we go for the schmear tax?
- 40:01SPEAKER_00: No.
- 40:01SPEAKER_00: No.
- 40:03SPEAKER_02: You're right.
- 40:04SPEAKER_02: Any alteration to a bagel,
- 40:06SPEAKER_02: slicing it or anything else,
- 40:07SPEAKER_02: transforms it into a prepared food and that's subject to an 8% sales tax.
- 40:13SPEAKER_02: And yeah, we agree.
- 40:14SPEAKER_02: Portland would say no.
- 40:15Now I know why my boyfriend's family who lives in New York only
- 40:19buys whole bagels.
- 40:21SPEAKER_02: See, you figured it out.
- 40:22SPEAKER_02: Again, I love this, right?
- 40:24SPEAKER_02: Behavioral economics, how people change and move.
- 40:26SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 40:27SPEAKER_00: I didn't know that.
- 40:28SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 40:28Italy passed a law requiring shopkeepers to pay 100 euros per
- 40:31year if their store
- 40:33SPEAKER_02: awnings,
- 40:33SPEAKER_02: signs or outdoor seating cash shade onto any public sidewalk.
- 40:38SPEAKER_02: Effectively, a tax on shade.
- 40:40SPEAKER_02: You think that's real or fiction?
- 40:46SPEAKER_00: I don't.
- 40:47SPEAKER_00: I think that's fiction.
- 40:48SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 40:48SPEAKER_02: Fiction.
- 40:48SPEAKER_02: You think Portland voters would go for that?
- 40:52SPEAKER_02: No.
- 40:53SPEAKER_02: There's too much shade in Portland.
- 40:55SPEAKER_02: Apparently it's real and technically still the law.
- 40:59SPEAKER_02: Italy's 1993 regulation established the,
- 41:02SPEAKER_02: I'm not going to read it in Italian,
- 41:04SPEAKER_02: a fee for any private structure affecting public spaces,
- 41:07SPEAKER_02: including
- 41:07SPEAKER_02: including shade.
- 41:08SPEAKER_02: Enforcement though is pretty inconsistent.
- 41:11Imagine standing there as the assessor being like waiting for
- 41:13the sun to hit a
- 41:14SPEAKER_02: perfect spot and hitting them.
- 41:17SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we agree.
- 41:18SPEAKER_02: Portlanders probably wouldn't go for that.
- 41:20SPEAKER_02: Czar Peter the Great imposed a beard tax in 1698.
- 41:25Men who refused to shave paid an annual fee and were issued a
- 41:28copper coin stamped.
- 41:29SPEAKER_02: The beard is a superfluous burden.
- 41:32SPEAKER_02: Police could publicly shave non-compliant men on the spot.
- 41:35SPEAKER_02: Do you think that really happened?
- 41:38SPEAKER_00: It's so ridiculous.
- 41:39SPEAKER_00: I think it did happen.
- 41:41SPEAKER_00: But yeah.
- 41:42SPEAKER_02: But Portlanders, no way.
- 41:43SPEAKER_02: A beard tax?
- 41:44SPEAKER_02: Oh my gosh.
- 41:45SPEAKER_02: We love our beard.
- 41:46SPEAKER_02: We'd be in the streets.
- 41:47SPEAKER_02: It is real.
- 41:48He returned from touring Western Europe and determined to
- 41:51modernize Russia.
- 41:52And the beards associated with the Orthodox tradition had to go
- 41:56for a price.
- 41:57SPEAKER_02: And so they actually would find them.
- 41:59SPEAKER_02: But yeah, no way Portland goes, I got a beard myself.
- 42:02SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 42:02SPEAKER_02: I'm against it.
- 42:04SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 42:04SPEAKER_02: In Sweden,
- 42:05parents are required to submit their child's name to the
- 42:07Swedish tax agency for
- 42:09SPEAKER_02: approval before the child's fifth birthday.
- 42:11Names deemed offensive,
- 42:12confusing or too unusual are rejected and parents face a fine.
- 42:17SPEAKER_00: Oh, my gosh.
- 42:18SPEAKER_00: Wow.
- 42:21SPEAKER_00: I guess I guess I believe that one.
- 42:24SPEAKER_02: The offensive name tax.
- 42:26SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 42:27SPEAKER_02: Portlanders, no way.
- 42:28SPEAKER_02: No way Portlanders go for that.
- 42:30SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I don't think so.
- 42:31SPEAKER_00: Although I do remember,
- 42:32SPEAKER_00: this just reminds me of,
- 42:35I went on a rabbit hole maybe 10 years ago reading about really
- 42:38strange names that
- 42:40SPEAKER_00: people have put on their children's birth certificates,
- 42:41SPEAKER_00: like a stop 16,
- 42:43SPEAKER_00: things like that.
- 42:45SPEAKER_02: So you're in favor of it.
- 42:46SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 42:47SPEAKER_00: I don't know if I'm in favor,
- 42:48SPEAKER_00: but there are some things that you're like,
- 42:50SPEAKER_00: yeah,
- 42:50SPEAKER_00: probably you shouldn't name your kid that.
- 42:52SPEAKER_02: There's a very famous book for economics, right?
- 42:56SPEAKER_02: Oh, yeah.
- 42:57And I believe there's a chapter in there about children named
- 42:59Lemon Jell-O or
- 43:00SPEAKER_02: Lamangelo and Orange Jell-O,
- 43:02SPEAKER_02: Orangelo.
- 43:03SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 43:05SPEAKER_02: That's better than Bus Stop 16, though.
- 43:07Yeah.
- 43:08SPEAKER_02: It's better than bus stop 16.
- 43:10SPEAKER_02: It is real.
- 43:11SPEAKER_02: Sweden's naming law requires that type of oversight.
- 43:17SPEAKER_02: And no, we think Portlanders probably wouldn't go for that.
- 43:20SPEAKER_02: France's National Assembly proposed requiring social media.
- 43:23influencers with over 10,000 followers to pay a 15% digital
- 43:27vanity levy on the
- 43:29SPEAKER_02: retail value of any free products.
- 43:31SPEAKER_02: Luckily, this show would still be underneath that tax.
- 43:34SPEAKER_02: So that's maybe a positive.
- 43:37SPEAKER_02: And what do you think?
- 43:39SPEAKER_02: Do you think that's real?
- 43:40SPEAKER_02: That proceeds would go to cultural equity fund?
- 43:43SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 43:44SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 43:44SPEAKER_02: Real tax Portland voters.
- 43:46SPEAKER_02: We might go for that.
- 43:47SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we might.
- 43:48SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 43:49SPEAKER_02: It actually is fiction, but apparently France has been trying.
- 43:53They have gone further on influencer regulation,
- 43:56so maybe we're going to give them ideas.
- 43:57SPEAKER_02: But I agree.
- 43:58SPEAKER_02: Portland voters would probably say yes for influencers.
- 44:02SPEAKER_00: It's just it seems like something the French would do.
- 44:06SPEAKER_02: All right, you're doing really good.
- 44:08SPEAKER_02: Two more.
- 44:08Japan's Ministry of Health proposed a corporate surcharge on
- 44:11any company allowing
- 44:12SPEAKER_02: employees to accumulate more than 10 unused vacation days per year,
- 44:17charging 2% of the employee's annual salary to fund a national
- 44:21rest and wellness
- 44:23SPEAKER_02: initiative.
- 44:23SPEAKER_02: You think that really happened?
- 44:26So they're really kind of forcing you to take your vacation,
- 44:28I think,
- 44:29is what that is.
- 44:35SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 44:35SPEAKER_00: I don't know about this one.
- 44:36SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 44:37SPEAKER_02: Would Portland go for that?
- 44:42But they're charging a tax on companies that give their
- 44:46employees more than 10 days.
- 44:47SPEAKER_00: Is that what I'm understanding?
- 44:49SPEAKER_02: If the employee accumulates more than 10 days.
- 44:52SPEAKER_00: Oh, got it.
- 44:52SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 44:53SPEAKER_00: Um, yeah, maybe Portland would go for them.
- 44:55SPEAKER_02: All right, let's see.
- 44:57SPEAKER_02: It is fiction, so you're right about that.
- 44:59SPEAKER_02: And yeah, Portland would likely support this.
- 45:02SPEAKER_02: So two for two on that one.
- 45:04SPEAKER_02: All right, last one.
- 45:05A Portland city ordinance would require any household
- 45:07maintaining a live sourdough
- 45:09starter for more than 30 consecutive days to register it with
- 45:12the Bureau of
- 45:13Development Services for a $10 annual fee with proceeds funding
- 45:17community bread
- 45:17SPEAKER_02: baking programs and food deserts.
- 45:20SPEAKER_00: Um...
- 45:21SPEAKER_00: No, I don't think people maybe it's been attempted.
- 45:25SPEAKER_00: I don't think people people like their sourdough too much.
- 45:28SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 45:28SPEAKER_02: So fiction, you're absolutely right.
- 45:30And at least the computer here thinks that Portlanders might
- 45:35actually go for that.
- 45:36SPEAKER_00: But really, I feel like that would be very hard to enforce.
- 45:39SPEAKER_02: Well, hey, overall, 16 out of 20.
- 45:42SPEAKER_02: You did fantastic on our quiz.
- 45:44SPEAKER_02: So you win the prize.
- 45:45SPEAKER_02: Congratulations.
- 45:46SPEAKER_00: What's the prize?
- 45:47SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
- 45:47SPEAKER_02: We'll figure that out later.
- 45:48SPEAKER_02: Maybe some sourdough.
- 45:51SPEAKER_02: Marina Kaminsky, thank you so much for coming on the show today.
- 45:53SPEAKER_00: Thank you for having me.
- 46:07SPEAKER_02: Here's what I want to leave you with.
- 46:08SPEAKER_02: Taxes are not inherently good or bad.
- 46:11SPEAKER_02: They are a tool.
- 46:12SPEAKER_02: And like any tool, what matters is what you build with them.
- 46:15Who gets to decide and whether the people making those
- 46:18decisions are being honest
- 46:19SPEAKER_02: with you about the trade-offs.
- 46:21SPEAKER_02: Portland voters have generally trusted that tool.
- 46:24SPEAKER_02: They voted for services.
- 46:25SPEAKER_02: They voted for kids.
- 46:27SPEAKER_02: They voted for housing.
- 46:28SPEAKER_02: And in many cases, those programs are working.
- 46:30SPEAKER_02: Kids are getting preschool.
- 46:32SPEAKER_02: People are getting housed.
- 46:33SPEAKER_02: And the climate fund is doing real projects.
- 46:36SPEAKER_02: But trust
- 46:36SPEAKER_02: is not unconditional.
- 46:38And when programs run big surpluses while services are still
- 46:41ramping slowly,
- 46:42when the people convened to evaluate them are almost
- 46:44exclusively from the business
- 46:46SPEAKER_02: community,
- 46:47when the governor of your own party starts firing shots at
- 46:50voter-approved programs,
- 46:52SPEAKER_02: voters are right to ask questions,
- 46:54SPEAKER_02: and hard ones.
- 46:55What I hope today's conversation gave you is a framework for
- 46:58asking those questions
- 46:59SPEAKER_02: with some actual grounding.
- 47:01SPEAKER_02: Not taxes bad or taxes good, but what does the data actually say?
- 47:05SPEAKER_02: Who's benefiting and who's paying?
- 47:07And when someone in power tells you a story about Portland's
- 47:10economy,
- 47:10what's the source?
- 47:12SPEAKER_02: What's their agenda?
- 47:13SPEAKER_02: And what are they leaving out?
- 47:15Because here's the thing they don't tell you when they talk
- 47:17about the tax burden.
- 47:18SPEAKER_02: There's also a cost to cutting.
- 47:20SPEAKER_02: A kid who doesn't get preschool,
- 47:22SPEAKER_02: a family that loses health coverage,
- 47:23SPEAKER_02: a shelter that closes,
- 47:25SPEAKER_02: those costs are real.
- 47:27SPEAKER_02: They just don't show up on anybody's balance sheet.
- 47:30SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 47:31SPEAKER_02: Before I let you go, a quick word about the show.
- 47:34SPEAKER_02: Our Substack subscriber list is well on its way to 100.
- 47:37SPEAKER_02: And when we cross that threshold,
- 47:39SPEAKER_02: we're going to do something special for all of our subscribers.
- 47:42SPEAKER_02: I've got a few fun ideas in mind, so stay tuned.
- 47:45A special shout out to Anthony and Adrian,
- 47:47two of our latest paying subscribers.
- 47:49People who sign up at $5 a month or $50 a year go a long way
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- 48:14SPEAKER_02: Link in the show notes.
- 48:16SPEAKER_02: Hey, as always, help us grow the show.
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- 48:24SPEAKER_02: I'm Mike Schmidt.
- 48:25SPEAKER_02: This is The Schmidt Show PDX.
- 48:27If this conversation was useful to you,
- 48:29share it with someone who's still making up their mind.
- 48:32SPEAKER_02: That's how we build an informed city.
- 48:34SPEAKER_02: And we'll see you next time.