Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Treading Water | MLB & WNBA & NFL Preseason | 8/14/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Treading Water | MLB & WNBA & NFL Preseason | 8/14/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chase, the black coffee on the felt. Man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned the dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal mean
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something on? Somebody for show? Put the glass down, baby,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: look at me? No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Now, hold on, hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Me, but don't get the crowd.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with you.
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: Toadstool Sports, Friday, August fourth, one and one on the
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: show yesterday.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Probably should have been to an Oh.
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: I mean, I feel like I'm saying this a lot,
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: but I'm not being biased because they're my plays. I mean,
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: if you look into it, we did win with Pittsburgh,
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: although the full game would have been easier, but they
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: were winning. It was nothing, nothing until the fourth inning,
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: I think, and they did finally score.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: I think Chandler or not Chandler. Oh god, Chandler's pitching.
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: Today, Oh God, I hope he doesn't do as well
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: as Ashcraft because the red sox are him. Ashcraft I
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: believe had a no hitter into the fourth inning, maybe the.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: Fifth inning, so he was pitching well.
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh finally got on the board, I think in the
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: fourth inning, so that was good enough.
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: I think they're winning two and up.
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: They get the end of the fifth, and then they
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: completely unloaded later in the game, which I didn't really
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: see happening, but they got there. I thought that their
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: offense would get going a little bit in the game,
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: at the very least they did. Phillips I think, stayed
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: in the game and really started losing it. I think
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: in like the sixth he gave up some more runs.
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh wanted to winning thirteen to one I think was
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: the final and that one. So it looks like it
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: was really easy, you know. I mean, it wasn't that
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: easy because Pittsburgh was slow to start, but the pitching
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: was there for them and they finally got on the board.
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: I think it was the right call. We got it
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: right either way. You played it at full game, first
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: five whatever.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: The WNBA game.
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: I don't know how many bullshit losses I'm going to
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: take in the WNBA, dude.
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: I think that was another one like what else can
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: I say?
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: You look at what happened in that game. The free
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: throw to Arany in that game was unbelievable.
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: I think pretty much we were dealing with wh who
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: do we play? We was Washington.
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: Against Vegas, right, Yeah, Vegas got to the free throw
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: line even though Washington. Dude, they won the rebound battle again.
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: And I talked about that in my handicap. They'd won
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: the rebound battle in the previous game. That's usually a
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: good indicator you're gonna be in that game. They won
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: the rebound battle again. Okay, that's good. I think there
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: was some reffing going on, and then we had to
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: deal with intentional fouls at the end and whatever. And yeah,
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: Vegas went to the line way more and they didn't
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: miss like any of them. I think Vegas missed one
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: free throw or maybe two, So they wound up with
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: nineteen more made free throws than Washington, and Washington missed
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: literally half of theirs. That was the entire game, and
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: they and they failed to cover by a half point
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: on the six and a half and unfortunately, yeah, like
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: the seven seven and a half that came out, if
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: that even was an actual number that was there it
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: was gone, like immediately before I saw it. I still
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: liked the six and a half half and they lose
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: by exactly seven. It's so ridiculous they had won more
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: of those free throws. Basically, they're gonna cover fifty percent
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: from the free throw line, is what Washington was. Vegas
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: went to the line. I think probably I don't even
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: know what it was. They went to the line I
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: think twenty something more times maybe whatever it was. And
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: then yeah, they made I think nineteen more fre throws
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: or something like that, whatever it was. Absolutely no, I
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: think they went to the line fewer than twenty more times,
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: but it was a huge disparity.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: And then yeah, I'm pretty sure they made nineteen more.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be ranting about it.
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: I gotta stop. It's ridiculous. We should have covered that one.
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: I think I'm fifty to fifty in the I think
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: I'm losing in the WNBA.
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: After a winning season last year, we started.
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: Out five and zero in the WNBA, and we've had
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: I think at least four losses that shouldn't have happened
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: in the WNBA. I'm pissed. I'm fucking pissed, and let's
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: have another one tonight. Why not, right, Yeah, let's do baseball.
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: I mean, there's way too much here. I don't know
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: how I can get through all this. I'm gonna have
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: two baseball plays and they're both first fives. I don't
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: know if I should be doing this, but it's what
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: I arrived at. I just I mean, there were some
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: other games that looked like I might have a play
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: on them and tug into the numbers.
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: I didn't really like them well enough. Saint Louis Chicago
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: Cubs is.
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: The first game up on Apple TV Wrigley Field, afternoon
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: game again on a Friday.
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: Chicago is I believe at a.
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: Rest disadvantage here, right, So they have a couple of
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: negatives here. Saint Louis was off yesterday, and Chicago played
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: in Washington yesterday and lost horribly seven and nothing. Kevin Goussman,
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: I guess not very good yesterday. Cavali might be the
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: real deal there. Bad spot for the Cubs returning home
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: from Kansas City and then Washington with no time off
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: here will with a quick turnaround kind of as well.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: That they played in the afternoon yesterday.
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: But another afternoon game here today where all the other
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: teams are playing at night, and yet it looks like
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: Cavali had a no hitter into the seventh there against
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: the Cubs yesterday. Cardinals with arrest edge here, so the
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: situation clearly favors Saint Louis here. The problem is, I
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: don't like the starting pitching here. I can't really come
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: in and back Saint Louis when they have a bad
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: starting pitcher on the mound, even if the situation is there.
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: I am a situational handicapper, but I don't know baseball.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: I just it's two matchup dependent.
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: For me, Chicago is the better relief staff here, they're
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: eleventh and bullpen based on whip Saint Louis is twenty first.
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: Cubs are also the better offense. They're third, Saint Louis
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: is twenty fifth. I mean, Saint Louis is not going anywhere.
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: But the thing is they might have a motivation here.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: They might still think they're gonna make the playoffs as well,
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: because I don't think they're eliminated or anything. Cubs are
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: definitely going to make the playoffs, I would say, but
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis might show up because it's just a big
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: division rivalry it's a big series. You know, they at
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: the very least play spoiler here. Cubs didn't use much
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: of their bullpen.
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: You sit down. Yeah, they only used Savali out of
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: the bullpen. I didn't even.
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: Realize they had him, so yeah. I mean, if he's
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: unavailable today, who cares? That's probably better for the Cubs
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: because he sucks.
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: Uh so he was.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: He probably gave up some of those runs yesterday. Problem is,
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: I can't comitted back Matthew Libratore here.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: He's just not good.
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: He's pitching for Saint Louis five point one five yrra
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: one point five to two whip, And I know you
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: can't just never back bad pictures. I guess I would
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: say that, But I mean, this is a situation where
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: there's really nothing to really like, Like, like, what do
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: you like about this? Like his numbers are just awful
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: across the board. Nothing really looks good here. His home
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: roads splits aren't significant. He's a lot worse this year
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: than he was the last two years. His strikeout walk
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: ratio has gone down. It's below three. His strikeouts for
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: nine is fine, so I'll give I'll give him that.
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: His strike out rate is decent. He's aligned way too
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: many hits. He's aligning way too many home run His
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: walk rates also not good. You could probably guess that
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: against the Cubs he's not very good, which is true.
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: He's given a he's.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: A lot of two seventy seven batting average, eight or
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: nine ops to them in one hundred and twelve at bats.
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: Twenty five to fifteen strike at walk ratio. Yeah, I
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: just can't do it. Man, if he had good numbers
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: against the Cubs, maybe there's an argument, even though maybe
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: I weigh the matchups too heavily and whatever, But I
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: like a lot of things to kind of coincide to
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: make my plays, even though we're having kind of a
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: mediocre baseball year after it was hot at the beginning
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: of the year. I can't do it, though, especially because
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: I think the Cubs have the better starter here, Clay Holmes,
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: who he's only made one start though since coming back
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: from his broken fibula, although he played on the broken
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: fibula and the game where he broke it against the Yankees,
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: I believe where I think we still.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: Won on an under in that game.
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: Holmes has had a good season, though, two point eight
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: six yer Ra one point one to six whip. However,
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: basically all of that was with the Mets before his injury,
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: but he's generally been good.
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: His splits are really not significant either.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: His first start with the Cubs did not go well though,
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: at Kansas City, and I know that's kind of a
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: hitter friendly park now, so I don't know what to
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: make of that, But Kansas City is still not a
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: good team, and he did not do well in that game. Maybe,
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: you know, after the long layoff, being away for more
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: than three months, you could argue maybe he just wasn't
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: quite ready whatever, and maybe he'll do better here.
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: I could definitely see that argument. His hit rate is.
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: Fine, his walk great is kind of high though, and
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: he doesn't really strike that many guys out, so the
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: advanced analytics guys won't like him.
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: Let me see what are we looking at here?
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah, his strikeout walk ratio is below three here, which
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: is not great this season I'm looking at And then
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: strikeouts for nine.
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: Not horrible but not great all right.
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: And then against what are we talking I've I already
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: forget who was Saint Louis right, they're not a good offense.
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: Holmes has been good against Saint Louis I already one
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: at bats two twenty six average allowed five to seventy two.
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: Oh ps. The only bad thing.
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: Is you probably could guess strike out walk ratio five
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: to four. That's not good, But the rest of these
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: numbers are good. They have only seven hitters who have
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: faced them, So yeah, I think Holmes does have the
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: advantage of the pitching matchup here. Cubs have the matchup
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: advantage in every aspect of this game.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: The situation is horrible for them.
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: Though, but in the matchup it'll all kind of goes
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: towards the Cubs here. So when I see something like that,
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: I have to just stay away. The Cubs are definitely public,
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: eighty seven percent of the tickets, ninety one percent of
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: the cash on them, though I don't really see the
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: professionals really coming in on the Cubs here though.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: They're around minus one eighty, which is a.
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: Pretty high price, and usually you see the pros just
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: kind of start coming in like, oh, well, this is
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: a bad spot, and you know that you're paying too
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: much for the Cubs, so let's just fire on the
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: underdog here. And yeah, I mean the argument is there
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: if you want to try to play on the situation.
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: The Cubs might be in the worst situation of the day.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: I think they're the old team that's re turning on
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: from a road trip and has a rest disadvantage. On
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: top of that, the other teams are turning on from
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: road trips today, I think pretty much all have rest
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: edges or at least the I think the rest is
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: tied with the opposing team. I'm not gonna do anything
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: with it. The money is also hitting. The over eightier
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: total basically indicates the wind is not really going to
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: be that much of a factor today in that game.
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: I don't have much else to say on it, man,
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: I don't even really have a great opinion on it.
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: I kind of think the Cubs are going to win it, though,
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: But I mean, if you're gonna try to play the Cubs,
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: you got to lay the run line within. Given the situation,
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: there's no way I would do it. Next game up
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: is going to be one of my plays and we
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: are going to take. I know, I'm going back to
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: another one of these. Man, of first five, these haven't
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: been good on first five. Under four have to pay
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: a little bit for minus one. I saw a lot
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: of three and a halfs that plus money because the
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: books they don't want you to have the four man.
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: So this is why you need have a bunch of books.
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: Some of them out there might allow you to do it,
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: or give you that option or have the number just
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: slightly different. I think it opened around four or maybe
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: even four and a half and it's come down a
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: little bit. But I like the starting pitching in this
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: one between Miami and Cincinnati is what we're talking about.
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: I don't even think I mention what teams I'm talking about,
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: Miami Cincinnati. I like to starting pitching here. I cannot
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: back Cincinnati's bullpen. There's no way. Cincinnati is kind of
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: in a bad spot too. They're returning home from the road.
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: They went to Washington and then the White Sox, and
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: they beat the White Sox in that series, winning in
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: a crazy nine to eight final yesterday, where I said
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: I liked the over in that game, and it did happen.
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: Didn't make the cut for me. It was close.
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: The Reds used most of their bullpen, so that's not good.
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: So there's no way I could back their bullpen.
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: They're bad bullpen anyway, and these six guys yesterday can't
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: do it. Miami's bullpen is better in the only these
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: three guys yesterday in that just gross loss to Pittsburgh yesterday.
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: Now Miami's starting a road trip, so the situational spot
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: is better for Miami. Neither team has arrest as we
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: both played yesterday, but Miami is starting a road trip
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: off an ugly loss yesterday to finish that series, which
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: was that win on Pittsburgh that we had on the show.
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati could be in a letdown spot, possibly, I guess.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: So.
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know how big a deal it is to
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: beat the White Sox, but they are returning home from
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: the road, and you know, I'm gonna reiterate it again,
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: which I don't think I clarified with the Chicago game,
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: but returning on from the road, you know, if you
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: haven't heard me talk about it before, it's a negative spot.
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: Typically it can lead to distractions.
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: Guys have been away from home for a while, they
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: have to get back to home life, etc.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: So I think that's a negative.
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: But the good thing for the under is I think
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: that distraction can hit like the majority of the lineup,
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean, Like the majority of the
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: team you're talking about is the hitting here, and I
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: think it can affect that and possibly affect them more
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: than it might affect like the starting pitcher, because he's
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: just one guy, so he can get over a little
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: go get over it a little bit more. Uh, but
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: I like to starting pitching here on both sides. Sandy
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: Olkontra pitching from Miami. He's got his whip down below
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: one two now. He's had a good season three point
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: five two ERA one point one to seven whip. I mean,
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: I guess it's not too surprising because he was really
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: good in his past, but it just seemed like after
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: the injuries he wasn't gonna really be that good again.
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: He's been good, though now he is not that good
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: on the road four point three to two Roady Ray
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: way higher opponent batting average on the road, so you
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: want to back.
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: Him more at home.
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: But he's been good either way. Like his last couple
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: of roads starts have been fine.
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: He's given up no runs in his last three starts,
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: going at least six innings in all of them. Granted
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: they weren't against elite offenses like he got Philly at home,
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: the Mets on the road, and then Anaheim at home.
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: But even so I mean, he's just burning through those lineups.
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: So he's in good form right now. Pitching really well.
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: He had one bad start in there against Houston, but
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: he's had all good starts otherwise since the beginning Lie.
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: He's definitely a good form right now. His hit rate
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: is reasonably low here, walk rate is okay given the
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: amount of innings that he's pitched. Yeah, that number of
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: walks isn't too bad.
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: His strike out rate.
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: Is low considering what he used to be able to do,
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: but it's not too bad. And you look at strag
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: out walk race shows right there at that threshold of threes,
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: that's not too bad. And he was never really that
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: much higher than that, even when he was great earlier
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: in his career.
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: I think he kind of always had. He was never
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: like a huge strikeout guy, I guess.
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: Although his strike gut rate has gone down a little bit,
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: it's basically down from the eights down to seven.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: But that's not that bad.
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: And he's going up against Cincinnati here. His numbers are
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: good against Cincinnati. Their offense has been weak, which I
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: should show those stats as well. He has eighty one
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: career at bats against him to twenty two average allowed
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: five ninety seven oh ps twenty two to six strag
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: out walk raceiow al Condra has done well against the
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: Red so I think he has the upper hand here.
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: As I was alluded to earlier, just to get it
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: out of the way, the Reds.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: Have a bad bullpen.
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: The ranked twenty fifth, so that's why I'm eliminating them
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: from the equation here. Miami is sixth in bullpens. I
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: would be fine with leaving Miami's bullpen in. You could
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: go full game.
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: On this still if you want to.
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: You really have to dodge the Reds bullpen though, if
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: you do that and hope that Burns is gonna get
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: you deeper into the game.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: And I think I'm.
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: A little bit more comfortable with Burns getting us through
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: five than getting us that much deeper into the game
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: because he is young, and they I think they don't
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: want to really like burn him out at this point.
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean. We're not looking at Dusty
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: Baker ball here. It's Terry.
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: Frankcona is still there right. I believe my man Frank
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: COONa winner with the Red Sox when they broke the
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: Curse of the Bambino. There you go always gonna love
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: Frank Cocona. I wish they had him back man, to
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: be honest. Although Chad Tracy's doing all right anyway. My
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: Red Sox rambling is it's gonna happen on all these
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: shows during baseball season hitting. As I was alluded to,
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: the Reds are not good. They're twenty third, so Alcantra
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: might have a little bit of an easier time here
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: because he has good numbers against them.
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: The only bad thing is his numbers on the road.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: But he's in really good form right now.
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: He's done well against Cincinnati, they're not a good offense,
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: and then Miami they are a decent offense. They're eighth,
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: tied with Houston and Milwaukee. I don't think they're as
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: good as those other two offenses, but I also think
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: they could be held in check by Chase Burns, who
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: I was just mentioning. He's Cincinnati's best pitcher right now
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: at two point six p' one Y Ray one point
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: one two whip. Even though he is still young, he's
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: having his breakout season here. He's been really good at
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: home two point two Homie I Ray with a sub
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: two hundred upon a batting average wasn't good in his
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: last start against Washington. I'm hoping that was more of
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: an outlier because most of his recent starts have been good. However,
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: as you'll notice, he's going around five innings at a
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: lot of these starts, he's he's a little bit inefficient
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: with his pitches. But also I think Cincinnati might kind
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: of have him on a little bit of a pitch
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: count here. So five innings seems to be the better
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: way to play this for multiple reasons, Like I think
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: Burns might go exactly five because he's done that somewhat often,
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: and then they'll yield to the bullpen, and I don't
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: want anything to do with the bullpen. But Burns has
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: been very good. He's got a low hit rate, his
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: walk rate is reasonable, strike gout rate is definitely high.
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: He strikes a lot of guys out, so that tells
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: you that he's got some real talent there. One thing
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: you do have to worry about is his innings. Young
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: guys like this that haven't thrown that many innings before,
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: once they get up in that innings count, you do
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: have to worry a little bit.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: I don't think we need to worry yet, but we'll.
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: Say, hopefully he's gonna he's gonna give us a good
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: start here in this one. His strike out walk ratio
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: this year isn't as good as it was last year.
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: That has been a little.
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: Bit concerned, but last year was a smaller sample size,
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: so maybe last year made him look a little bit
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: better than he actually is. He's still been really good
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: this year though, and his strago, I mean, his strikeouts
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: for nine is still above ten. I mean it's not
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: like that's at all bad. So yeah, obviously that's still good.
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: And I believe Miami has never faced him before, so
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: we're gonna ride unfamiliarity here on his side.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: So we get a good picture.
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: Who's going up against an offense it's unfamiliar with them,
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: and I think that's an extra advantage to the pitcher
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: when the offense has never seen them before, the offense
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: can struggle a little bit.
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: So let's take the first five under here in this one.
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: We have sixty four.
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: Percent of the sixty four percent of the tickets, sixty
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: two percent of the cash on the over, so it
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: looks like there is a slight market indication towards the
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: under in this one. Miami's getting a lot of the
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: money as well. I don't disagree with Miami. Again, I
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: think the spot is better for Miami. Like I said,
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: with the return home spot for Cincinnati, you'll have to
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: get through Burns. But I think if the game is close,
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: if al Condra duels him, which is what I'm banking
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: on here, Miami's gonna have the better bullpen. So if
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: you're gonna take Miami, obviously you should do it in
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: the full game. Take advantage of the bullpen edge, which
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: I think is that plus the situation is the biggest
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: edge you're gonna have. I think it might be close
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: through the verse five though, which is I'm banking on here.
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: With the under in the first five. Obviously, full game
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: totals at eight. So again, if you wanted to take
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: the full game under, I'm not gonna disagree with that.
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: I still agree with that. It's just I don't want
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: to deal with the reds bullpen. Hopefully the starters can
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: get us there. Man, it's been we've had a bad
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: time at these first five unders on the show Man.
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: I think many of them have been losers that shouldn't have.
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: Been as well.
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: So let's do it. We'll ride the starting pitchers here
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: in this one. Cincinnati is a very small favorite. By
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: the way, money line hasn't really moved much. It's around
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: a Pickham price, so you'll get Miami maybe at a
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: slight underdog price if we're gonna take them in the
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: full game or whatever, which again I don't disagree with
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: that either, but the under first five is my actual play,
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: which I think is one of the best plays on
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: the board. Boston and Pittsburgh my Boston Red Sox. Pittsburgh
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: is returning over from the road, but they were only
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: on a single series road trip in Miami, and they
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: ended a losing streak with their win yesterday, so I'm
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: not to say Pittsburgh's in a bad spot here, even
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: though it is a return home spot. They haven't been
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: away for that long, so I don't think it's that
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: negative for them. The Red Sox, I think should be
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: in a positive spot because they finally ended.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: That stupid losing streak.
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: They'd lost five games in a row, but that was
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: because they were behind Peyton totally yesterday, who seems like
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: the real deal, like he didn't have his best stuff
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: in that game and he allowed the lead runner on
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: base the first three innings, but he didn't allow any runs,
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: got through it, and they left him in the game,
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: and he got really efficient with his pitches. He didn't
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: strike a lot of guys out yesterday. He actually didn't
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: have a strikeout until like the sixth inning, which is
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: kind of bad. But he stayed in the game and
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: he retired the last seventeen batters in a row that
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: he had faced.
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: Totally. Yeah.
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: Man. Over his last two starts, I forget exactly what
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: the stat is, but he had a certain amount of
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: innings pitched, a certain amount of strikeouts, which was obviously
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: way higher than the innings pitch because he had fourteen
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: strikeouts and six innings the other time against the A's,
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: and then very few hits allowed, and the amount of
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: runs allowed which is very low as well. Whatever that
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: combination was. I saw the tweet about it. I might
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: retweeted or something. In those two starts, he did something
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: that only two other Red Sox pitchers have ever done
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: over a two start span, and it was Cy Young
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: and Pedro Martinez, and Pedro Martinez did it twice. Whatever
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: the numbers were, it was something to do with the
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: amount of hits aloud, the amount of runs allowed in
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: the amount of strikeouts over in the amount of innings
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: pitched over a two start span or something like that. Anyway,
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: Peyton Totley, he's He's the guy you have to be
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: the most confident about right now in the Red Sox
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: starting rotation, even though they're starting rotation is pretty good.
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: But yeah, he's the only guy that I'm confident, like, Yeah,
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox can go out there and win this
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: game with him on the mound, which is crazy to say.
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are now having to go from Toronto to Pittsburgh.
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: Not a horrible travel spot here Pittsburgh. They're good offensively
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: at home, though, that's something you got to worry about.
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: Red Sox obviously battling for wild card positioning here Pittsburgh
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: technically is I guess, but they might be feeling like
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: they might be done man, even though they put up
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: a good effort yesterday. Pittsburgh also saved their bullpen yesterdays.
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: Ashcraft was really good in the game.
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: I think they didn't even use the relief pitcher.
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: I guess Ashcraft, I know he was still in there
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: in like the eighth inning or whatever.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: I think they might have just let him go.
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: The complete game yesterday, which is insane, but I think
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: maybe he did do that. Red Sox, though they only
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: used one guy to their bullpenk this totally went eight
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: innings yesterday, So both bullpens are pretty clean here, but
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox have the number one bullpen, although Whitlock
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: is on the DL right now, which is not good
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: because he was He was having an excellent season, so
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: they need him to come back. Man, they're saying it's
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: inflammation in the elbow. It better not be worse than that,
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: because yeah, that could be bad like that.
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: Better not linger better into something worse.
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: But these it seems like the Red Sox medical staff
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: is constantly lying. Pittsburgh does not have a very good
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: bullpen though they're twenty third, although they're rested, but the
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: Red Sox have the edge there. Pittsburgh has the offensive edge.
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: Their fourth are also really good at home. Red Sox
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: fourteenth doing better recently. But that seven to nothing Red
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: Sox win yesterday might be a little bit misleading because
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: it was a one nothing game into the eighth inning
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: and Caleb Durban hit a grand slam in the eighth inning.
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: When the Red Sox are trying to play small ball.
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: Wilson Contreras actually bumped it runners over to scoring position
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: because they were trying to just score like an extra run.
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: He goes, just get the insurance run here, Caleb Durban
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: gets up. Yeah, no, I'm just gonna jacket out of
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: the yard. How about four insurance runs? And then they
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: scored more in the ninth than he too, But yeah whatever.
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: Jake Bennett is pitching for the Red Sox here. Wasn't
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: good in his last start. Man, I don't know what
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: to think about him. He doesn't strike enough guys out.
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: He's been good. He's got a three point one seventy
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: one point zero four whip, doesn't really put a lot
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: of guys on base. But I get some I have
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: I have some concerns, man, just with his strikeout rate
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: and stuff like that.
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: He's been good on the road. Two point eight seven.
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: Roadyra mostly his pitch well his last couple starts, though
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: the walk rate's kind of gone up. Hasn't gone that
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: deep into these outings the last couple of times moments
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: against the Dodgers, he got to give him a pass
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: for that. At home against the A's kind of struggled
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: through that one though, and that's not a good sign.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: Really.
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: He's not really throwing that many pitches though, and he
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: hasn't thrown that many innings, so we don't have to
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: worry about that as a young guy. He doesn't allow
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: that many hits, doesn't allow that many walks. But his
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: strike out rate is low. Like I said, he does
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: get a lot of ground ball outs. I'm looking at
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: his stats here. Overall, the strikeout walk ratio is still
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: actually good because his walk rate is so low, so
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: that still looks pretty good. It's above three strikeouts per
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: nine not impressive, but yeah, I mean, he's just not
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: a strikeout guy, so the advanced analytics guys are probably
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: gonna have something to say about that and not be
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: fans of it. Pirates have obviously never faced him before,
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: so he does have that advantage. Maybe he does bounce
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: back here and pitch well. He's got unfamiliarity against the Pirates.
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: It's not an easy task though, to go and pitch
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: against one of the best offenses in their home stadium
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: where they're at their best. So that's gonna maybe not
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: be that great for him, but he might pitch well
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: because Pittsburgh hasn't faced him before.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: So that remains to be seen.
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: Bubba Chan the rest pitching for the Pirates. He's got
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: some major walk issues. Man, he'd be a good pitcher
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: if he didn't have those issues. Four point two six
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: y r Ray one point three to eight whip. He's
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: basically the same home and away. It doesn't really matter.
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: His strikeout walk ratio is really bad. Last year it
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: was awesome. He had a small sample size last year.
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: Last year he was great, So I was expecting him
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: to take a step forward and be really good this year.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: He has the ability to do it. He has good
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: strikeout ability.
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: The problem is, yeah, I mean, I don't know what's
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: going on with him this year. The walks have gone
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: way up, and actually his strike out rates of gotten
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: down a little bit this year, and his strike out
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: walk ratios below two, which is a big problem. It's
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: the walks that are the problems. Strike gut rate is
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: still pretty good here, even though it's not up at
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: one per inning. You bitched really well last time out
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: against the Mets. Was kind of struggling prior to that though. Man,
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: most of his recent starts have been kind of bad
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: and not going that deep into these outings. He's hard
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: to hit though, but he walks a ton of guys
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: and his strike gut raid is just kind of mediocre here.
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: So yeah, the walks are the huge issue with him though,
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: and maybe the Red Sox can take advantage of that
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: if they're patient. They haven't really seen much of him.
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: Only the guys that used to be in the NL
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: in his division have seen him before Contreras and Durban,
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: and they're zero for three with two strikeouts against him
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: and no walks. That's not great, very limited sample there though.
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: Obviously this is a stay away for me. I mean,
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: I have really nothing on this. I used to be
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: more like full bore on the Oh yeah, the unfamiliarity.
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna do that here. The Red Sox are
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: a super public side.
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: Ninety one percent of the tickets, ninety four percent of
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: the cash they opened minus one thirty something had dropped
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: into the minus one twenties, So it looks like there
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: is some anti public sentiment from the professionals coming in
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: against the Red Sox here. I think the Red Sox
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: are in the slightly better spot though, and I probably
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: prefer Bennett over Chandler plus the Red Sox with the
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: better bullpen.
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: I would slightly lean to the Red Sox, but.
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: I am not confident that they'll actually win this game, man,
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: And I think maybe I don't know, Man, there might
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: be more indicators towards an under than an over here.
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: Although I don't like Pittsburgh's bullpen, but the Red Sox
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: offense isn't terrific. The money is slightly indicating towards the
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: over eight, but with unfamiliarity for both starters, at least
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: one good bullpen, under makes a little bit more sense
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: to me, And you could limit it to the first five.
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: You want to just focus on the starting pitching unfamiliarity,
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: because I think both of these guys do have talent
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: and the unfamiliarity there and could do well all right.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: White Sox at Detroit.
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: I was looking at this game, and I think the
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: pitching definitely favors Detroit here. And Detroit's playing some good
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: baseball here, even after they sold off of the trade deadline.
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: They're playing with some effort here, man, And they're right
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: there in the AL Central, and this is gonna be
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: against the team it's above them, the Al Central.
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: Detroit's gonna keep showing up, man.
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: They just beat the they just beat Cleveland, they're coming
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: in here. You could argue the letdown spot here, but
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: I don't really think the Actually they're staying at home
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: for this. You could argue the letdown spot, but I
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: just don't think so, because they're not going to overlook the.
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: White Sox, you know what I mean.
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: That's one of the teams they're battling with for the division.
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: Detroit also could be a wildcard here depending on how
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: things shake out. But they're playing good baseball and they're
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: actually they're better at home as well, which is where
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: they are here. The White Sox have not been playing
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: as well recently, and they're also not good on the road,
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: so some advantages already kind of showing it for Detroit here. Now.
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: White they're not in a bad spot really though, though
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: they did play a grinding, high scoring game yesterday and
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: use a lot of their relief arms, so that's gonna
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: be kind of an issue. They're gonna be in a
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: bullpen disadvantage here, but they are starting a road trip,
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: which is a positive spot. Usually they're not gonna overlook Detroit,
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: who's right on their heels, So both teams are gonna
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: show up. It's A big series problem is White Socks
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: look like they're somewhat going with the bullpen game in
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: this one, and their bullpen has already totally burned out,
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: So that looks pretty bad to me for the White Sox.
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: These four guys out of the bullpen yesterday, Detroit I
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: think only use two yeah in their win over Cleveland,
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: they didn't have to hold off Cleveland at the end,
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: they use Jansen, I believe, as their cloths are there,
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: I still I think Detroit's got the better bullpen here.
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: They're fourteenth versus Chicago at fifteenth, but Detroit's got the
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: better era and they're in the better rest situation here
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: as far as the bullpens go, and the White Stars
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: are going with a bullpen game again. Like I said, so,
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: I prefer Detroit's bullpen here. Detroit is slightly better offensively
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: right now as well. Eleventh, White Sox thirteenth, So Detroit.
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: It's a close matchup, but Detroit has some slight edges here.
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: But I think the biggest edge is actually the starting pitching.
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: Sean Neukom is going to be the pitcher for the
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: White Sox here. This is a bullpen game. He's been
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: good he's my man from Brockton, mass And he was
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: on the Red Sox for a little while. But I
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: don't think he's a good pitcher. I know his numbers
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: look good this year, but he's got a limited sample size.
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: He's just kind of a journeyman pitcher. He's in his thirties.
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: He's mostly a relief pitcher. He's not pitching more than
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: like one to two innings every time he goes out there, so.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: He's gonna be an opener here.
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: If you're gonna play this game, I wouldn't even pick
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: a starter for the White Sox because you don't even
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: know if he's gonna actually be the opener or not.
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: So if you're gonna play this game.
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: I would pick job must start for the Tigers, and
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: I would not pick a starter on the White Sox
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: just because I think it's kind of unclear who they're
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: actually gonna start here.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: But whatever it is, it's not good. You're gonna get
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: a bullpen game out of the White Sox.
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: Although actually, if you go five games back, I thought
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: it was gonna be Anthony Kay today, but it looks
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: like they're starting him tomorrow, so he's pitching Tomorrow's game,
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: so it does look like it's legitimately just a bullpen
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: game for the White Sox here. I don't know why
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: they're doing it because Kay is on the normal rest here.
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: Like I thought they might be doing it because he
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: was only on five days or four days rest or whatever.
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: But he's on the normal five days rest. I'm pretty sure.
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: So I don't know why Chicago's doing this Jackson job.
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: Like I said, he's pitching for Detroit. He's kind of
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: a mystery to me right now. I don't know what
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: to expect out of him. He pitched a bit like
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: he's pitched for the last two seasons, but last year
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: we got to see more of what he can do,
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: and he walked way too many guys last year just
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: playing and simple. He looked alright kind of, but his
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: walks were ridiculous last year. Now has he figured that out?
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: I don't know, because he's made one start so far
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: this year and it was good. He went five innings
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: and he one hit shut out the San Francisco Giants.
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: But it was the Giants in San Francisco. That's not
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: really a good offense that you're going up against there
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: and a pitcher friendly park, so he was good, and
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: I heard guys raving about his outing. I mean, it
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: looks it's good, there's no doubt about that. But can
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: we really take that much away from this?
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: He had four strikeouts one walk, so it's a good
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: sign that he walked only one guy, But I don't
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: know if that's going to continue or not. I really
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: have no idea what we're going to get out of
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: him here. He does have some track record against the
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: White Sox. They have three hitters to have faced him
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: nine at bats and they only have one hit against him,
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: a single from Doyle one eleven average allowed three to
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: eleven ops allowed one to one strike out walk ratio.
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: I would rather back whatever Detroit's doing here, though, with
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: job hopefully getting you four or five innings here and
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: then the Detroit bullpen. I would rather be on that
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: than a full bullpen game from the White Sox after
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: they use a lot of their bullpen yesterday in that
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: game against the Reds, and we're avoiding the Reds bullpen
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: because they're involved in that same game as well. I
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: like Detroit in this game. I don't think I could
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: really do it. I mean, I think there's just too
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: much unpredictability here.
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: But that's the way that I would go here.
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: The money doesn't agree with me at all either, so
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: that's kind of a problem. If you're gonna play Detroit,
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: you're gonna be looking at minus one forty something on
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: the money line in the full game, or you could
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: make like a minus one run line on it, which
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: might get a little dangerous because they're the home team,
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: so they might not batt in the ninth inning if
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: they're already winning. But if they're already winning, at worst,
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: you're pushing your bet there. If you have a minus
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: one run line, but seventy four percent of tickets on
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: Detroit sixty six percent of the cash on the White Sox,
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: so the money is seemingly indicating pretty hard on the
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: White Sox. I don't get it, man Like, as a
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: professional better I understand that you want to find value,
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: and oh yeah, Detroit might be a little bit overvalued
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: here with the recent success they've happened.
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: Do you, seriously, do.
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: You really want to have your money on a White
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: Sox bullpen game here? I mean, I guess it's all
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: all about the price, but even with this price, I
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: don't like it.
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: I would still need Detroit.
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: The money is also kind of indicating on the under,
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: which seems insane to me. You could maybe look at
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: Detroit to go over their team total and just score
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: runs off of this questionable White Sox pitching situation they
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: have going on here. Maybe that's a way to do it,
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: and it takes the mystery of job out of the equation.
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: That sounds like a book of the Bible. I mean
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: it kind of is. You could, yeah, take him out
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: of the equation because you have no idea really what
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: you're gonna get out of him. Maybe Detroit team total over,
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: but the money is hitting the under eight and a
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: half there, so I don't know. Difficult game to handicap man.
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: It is Baltimore and Tampa Bay. I don't know what
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is really doing here either, because it looks
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: like they're kind of going with a bullpen game here.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: Timba Bay is in a bad spot. Both of these
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: teams were off yesterday. I'm pretty sure Tampa Bay is
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: coming home from going to Colorado Seattle and the a's Sacramento.
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: So Tampa Bay's returning home cross country from a long
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: road trip. I'm gonna say it again that's a negative spot.
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: You have to get back to home life, plus you
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: have to readjust to the time zone. They did have
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: yesterday off, but still it's a bad spot for Tampa Bay.
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: So my first instinct would be to be looking towards
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: fading at Tampa Bay because they're not in a good
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: spot and they just had a great road trip. They
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: won all nine games on the road trip. They have
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: a decent lead right now in the AL East. So
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: though it's not insurmountable, and I still kind of think
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: the Yankees are gonna somehow win that division. Baltimore this
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: is gonna be one game they get up for. I
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: think Baltimore was also off yesterday. They're traveling down from Minnesota,
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: which they're in the middle of a road trip, so
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: it's probably a better spot for them. Again, I would say,
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: I think maybe they could take more advantage of that
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: rest day as well, and they're not gonna overlook Tampa
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: even though Baltimore is done for the season. Basically, whatever
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: your face, you're in last place man in the AL Ease.
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: If you're Baltimore, you're facing the top team in the
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: AL East here, Tampa Bay. Yeah, you're gonna focus you're
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: gonna you're gonna try to knock off the team. It's
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: the top of your division. You know, that's something that
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: will motivate you. So I think that's okay for Baltimore.
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: I think they will be focused enough here. Baltimore thirteenth
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: and Boldt and the Rays are number two, although I
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: think both of them are a little bit overrated by
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: arranging this by Whip. I don't think either of them
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: are that good. But yes, Tampa is the better bullpen,
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: Tampa is the better offense as well.
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: The ranks sixth. Baltimore is sixteenth.
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: Tied with the A's, but again it's I don't think
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: it's that much of a gap between these two teams.
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: Baltimore is going with Kyle Bradish here, although actually they're
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: undecided right now, so I don't know what they're doing.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: It looks it looked like it was.
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: Going to be Bradish and if it is going to
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: be him, he's been alright three point six ninety or
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: Ray one point three four Whip he's worse on the
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: road though, three point nine to nine Rody I rang
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: his opponent batting average on the road is way higher
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: at almost three hundred, so that's not good. He's pitched,
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: you know, well, I don't know. I mean, his last
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: start was good against Texas, but the two starts prior
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: to that were both not good. But before that he
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: was pitching well. So he's been kind of a roller coaster.
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: His thing is he walks away too many guys. He
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: doesn't allow that many hits. His strikeout rate is decent,
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: but yeah, his walk rate is arable. And again I
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: don't know if he's actually pitching today or not. He's
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: been better throughout his career than what we've seen from him.
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: This year though, which is kind of interesting is StrEG
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio is the worst that it's been ever
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: really this year, So something's going on here.
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the deal is with him why.
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: He seems to be struggling more with the control. Something's
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: going on here. Not great StrEG out walk ratio there.
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: His strikeouts for nine was way better the last couple
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: of years too, so that's gone down a little bit too.
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: He's capable of doing better than what we've seen though,
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: So there is that. I think maybe I don't know,
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: if he's coming back from an injury maybe, or I
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: don't know.
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: What the deal is there.
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Tampa Bay are not bad in seventy
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: five at bats two forty average, seven to thirteen ops allowed,
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: eighteen to eight strike out walk.
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: Ratio, So I would be okay back in Braddish.
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: Here, but we don't actually know if he's gonna start,
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: and that's the thing they have. It looks like ESPN
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: had him listed here, but now there's no starter listing
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: on the board for them, and Tampa Bay looks like
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: they're going with a full bullpend game. They got Stephen
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: Mott's listed as the opener. He's having a rough season, dude.
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: He was good as a relief pitcher last year for
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis and then the Red Sox traded for him
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: for a rental at the end of the season, which
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: didn't do a whole lot. But he was decent last year.
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: This year he's been pretty bad. Although he's ERA in
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: the fives makes him look worse than he actually is.
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: His whip is in the one point two, so he's
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: better than that. But I don't really want to fully
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: handicap him as a starter here because.
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: I think he might be an opener. I mean, he's
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: going to be He pitched two days ago.
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: He pitched an inning, So yeah, he's going to be
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: an opener because they did have him start earlier in
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: the season. He was actually in the starting rotation and
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: he was actually doing alright with his.
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: Going what do I want?
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: He's going like a full starter's workload there, But I
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: don't want to handicap him, you know, like spend that
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: much time doing it, just because he's not going to
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: be in the game that much.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: So it's going to be.
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: A Tampa bullpen game here. And I look five games
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: ago for Tampa, they went with a full bullpen game.
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: So I think if you're gonna play this game, I
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: actually think you should just play the whole thing action.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: Because we have no idea who's starting in this game.
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: So if you're gonna be gambling for sure, like I like,
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: you know, wagering where I think I have an edge
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: and knowing all the information. But if you're gonna play
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: this game not knowing who's gonna start, I would say
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: pick action in this one because you have no idea.
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: I think Tampa's going with a bullpen game. We know that,
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: it's just unclear if it's gonna be Motts. It might
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: be Legumina opening who knows Baltimore. You think it would
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: be bradish Yere Like, I don't see why it wouldn't
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: be if it's his turn in the rotation.
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: But it's a bad spot for Tampa for sure.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: And if you really just want to blindly play the situation, yeah,
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: I would lean Baltimore in this game. Tampa Bay is
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: the better team, has no doubt about that, but the
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: situation is bad and you're not getting their best pitching
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: attack this.
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: Or whatever you want to call it.
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: Uh, you know they're going with a bullpen game, so
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: and you know I don't like that, although some teams
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: are good at doing it, and it is a spot
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: where it makes some sense to do it because Tampa
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: Bay is rested here so they can manage the bullpen
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: the way they want to.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: But minus one sixty something is a price on Tampa.
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: You know, you're probably paying a bit of a premium
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: for Tampa here just because they have a really good record.
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: They have the best record in the AL, although I
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: still don't think they're the best team in the AL,
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: and in fact, I believe the Yankees and the Tigers
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: both have a better run differential than Tampa Bay does.
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: That's interesting something of note there, And actually the Red
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: Sox might as well. Actually let me look, because I'm
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: just I'm interested right now. I haven't been following it
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: that closely recently. Yankees and Red Sox too. Yeah, and Detroit. Yeah,
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: all three of those teams have a run differential higher.
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: They're all pretty good.
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: They're all very positive run differentials, including Tampa. But Tampa's
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: about twenty runs behind all three of those teams. So
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: Detroit actually has the best run diff in the AL.
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: Believe it or not.
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: I wasn't even looking at the AL West because I
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: know the entire.
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: Division is negative, so I didn't.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: I did not even have to scroll down. Man, and
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: the White Sox are the only other team with the
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: positive run diff.
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: That's crazy. The AL is so bad, dude.
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: But anyway, yeah, I would lean Baltimore in that game
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: and just take them, make a plus one run line
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: or whatever.
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: Full game, I guess, because.
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: Even if Tampa has a bullpen edge, their bullpen's gonna
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: be pitching the whole game, so that kind of eliminates
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: the bullpen edge because whatever edge it is gonna have
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: the whole game to have to contend with. So, all right,
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: San Diego Cleveland. I looked at this and I thought,
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: this is gonna be on my card. Like this jumps
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: out at me as being an under, like Cleveland plays
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: a lot of undergames at home. You're looking at too
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: bad or too bad offense has.
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: Excuse me, You're looking at two good starting pitchers here,
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: and you're looking at two good bullpen or well one
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: good bullpen and San Diego in a decent bullpen.
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: I guess I would say with Cleveland so like, this
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: has all the makings of an under to me, and
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: the odds makers know it.
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: They have a pretty low to odal on this.
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: I can't do it because the matchup numbers are kind
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: of just keeping me away from it. But yeah, I
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: think if I was going to add another play to
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: my card, it would be an under. In this game,
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: most things line up for an under here. Cleveland just
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: lost yesterday to Detroit, getting.
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: Shut out there.
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: Now the returning home from a road trip, not the
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: worst road trip where they stayed in their division, in
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: their geographic area. They went to Chicago and Detroit, so
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: an easy trip home, but still they've been away for
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: a week, so I always talk about it. You can
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: get distracted, have to get back to home life. Cleveland
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: just had all like divisional foes they're fighting with for
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: the division on that road trip.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: Could be a devastating road trip. Man.
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: They lost four out of the six games, lost both
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: series to the White Sox and Tigers. There are two
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: foes here besides Minnesota. I don't think Minnesota's going anywhere. Man,
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: They're not good. I did not mention them as a
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: positive run differential because.
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they're not.
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: But yeah, Cleveland, I mean they might start getting into
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: you know, dream crusher mode here at some point, you know,
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: and after those big divisional games coming back home home distractions,
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: are they going to focus that much on the pod?
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: I'm not so sure the man. San Diego though, they
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: could be in a letdown spot here. San Diego had
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: yesterday off and.
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: They're coming in from Milwaukee or no, they're coming in
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: from home. Excuse me.
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: So they're coming in from the Pacific coast, so a
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: lot of travel here. But start of a road trip,
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: a lot of times you are focused and you carry
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: that momentum with you. However, that was a big series
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: win for them, sweeping the Brewers that was huge, big
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: NL matchup there. San Diego is now ahead of Arizona.
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: They might be feeling kind of high on themselves right now,
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: so they might be in line for a let down
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: here as well. Cleveland, by the way, played yesterday, so
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: kind of an interesting spress. So actually I said the
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: Cubs are the only team in that spot, which is
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: a return home and arrest disadvantage.
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: I got that wrong. I apologize.
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: Cleveland also is so if you wanted to fade, you
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: know what, I don't think I'm gonna do it, but
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: it is tempting to look.
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: You know, I was thinking under.
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: I do like the under in this game a lot,
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: but I'm thinking and San Diego is.
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: Definitely a way to look in this game as well.
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: But I worry just because you know.
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: They will have to adjust to the new time zone.
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: They could be inna let down off of those Brewers games, Like,
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: after you do that to the Brewers, how much focus
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: are you really gonna pay to Cleveland right now?
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: You know?
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: I don't know, so I'm gonna stay away from it,
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: but I would lean to San Diego on the side
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: here and you'll see what the matchup numbers look like
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: in a minute. But San Diego does have a bullpen
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: edge here. They're off, so their bullpen is rested. Cleveland
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: was not off. Although they used three guys yes today,
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: they didn't really use their better relievers yesterday. So their
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: bullpen is in okay shape as well. So that's good
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: if you're gonna play the under here. San Diego's number
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: seven in bullpen. I think they're better than that. I
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: think they're one of the top five. Probably Cleveland is
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: number twenty in bullpen, but I think they're better than that.
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: They're not a bottom ten bullpen. I think they're I
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: think they're the upper half of bullpens. Offensively, Yeah, Cleveland's
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: really bad. They're twenty eighth here, tied with the Mariners.
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: Not not a good thing for the Mariners. San Diego
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: has been a little bit better, so I will give
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: them that. They are hitting better recently. They're twenty third.
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: They're tied with Cincinnati now, oh yeah, but these are
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: still offenses. You could definitely fade in my opinion. Michael
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: King his picture for San Diego advanced analytics. Guys don't
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: love this guy, but I mean he's got a long
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: career that we can look at and he's been a
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: solid pitcher throughout his career, so it's like, all right,
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: you can hate it on the guy, but he does
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: pretty consistently well. Three point three seven e RA one
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: point one to seven Whip. It's all because he doesn't
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: strike guys out. Man, he's only slightly worse on the road.
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: Three point five to six Roady RA. He's been pretty
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: good over his recent starts. He's had a couple of
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: if he performances in there, a couple of walk heavy
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: starts in there, but he didn't allow that many runs
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: in one of them against Atlanta. The other one he
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: kind of escaped as well, though he got no run support.
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: And then the other one where he gave up runs
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: against the Rockies. I think he kind of got unlucky.
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: But he's got a low hit rate. His walk rates
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: not great. Really, a strike out rate is okay, So yeah,
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: his strike up walk ratio is not going to be
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: that good. You know, he's got to get that walk
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: right down a little bit. Yet over his career it's
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: been better than it is this year. It's actually pretty
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: low at two point two strike out walk ratio, which
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: over his career he's been hovering around three, So that
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: is bad. I guess that he's fallen off in that regard,
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: but he's been unhittable enough that his whip is still
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: pretty good here. And yeah, strike ups for nine has
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: gone down. He wasn't That's what I thought. He was
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: a better.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: Strikeout pitcher throughout his career.
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: So yeah, this season, the underlying metrics actually have him
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: worse this season than he has been in the recent seasons.
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: But I don't know, man.
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's continuing to pitch effectively at the very least,
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: and he's going up against an offense that can't do
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: that much damage usually, and they have not been good
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: against him. Cleveland and forty at bats against King one
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: seventy five average for eighty three oh ps six twelve
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: to six strikeout walk ratio is again a bad ratio
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: right around two. But again the rest of these numbers
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: look good, so I would be I would be fine
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: with backing King here. And it looked like an under
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: because Gavin Williams is pitching for Cleveland. Williams is pitching
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: really well, like he's looking the best that he ever
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: has a three point five to five yar RA one
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: point zero four whip. He's got a two point eight
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: five year ra at home. He's really good at home.
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: He's striking out a ton of guys recently. Last time
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: out was the first time since early July where he
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: didn't have double digit strikeouts in an outing, and he
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: got to seven in his last outing.
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: He gets a pretty capable White Sox offense.
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: So yeah, even though he didn't go that deep into
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: his last two outings, he's pitching well, man like tons
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: of strikeouts here, doesn't allow many hits. His walk rates
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: okay as well. He doesn't allow a lot of home
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: runs though, because it seems like if he doesn't get
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: his fastball by hitters, they connect with it and jacket
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: out of the yard.
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: So that's a little bit of an issue.
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: But it is also kind of fluky, and he's not
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: even really that heavy of a fly ball pitcher, so
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: it is a little weird. His strikeout rate is definitely high,
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: one of the higher rates in baseball. I would say
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: his straight walk ratios improved big time. So you want
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: to talk about King not doing as well this year,
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: Williams has been at his best this year. He looked
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: pretty good last year and twenty twenty three. Twenty twenty
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: four wasn't great for him. But this year, yeah, this
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: has been his best season. His numbers have gotten way
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: better and his strike up for nine is insane. It's
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: eleven and a half this year, which is the highest
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: it's ever been. Yeah, he looks awesome right now. His
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: numbers against San Diego, though, I started to have some
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: issues here twenty four at bats. They have a three
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: seventy five average against him, an eight p fifty eight
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: ops five to one strike up walk ratios.
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: That does concern me a little bit.
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: Although I think he is certainly capable of shutting this
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: offense down.
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: I worry about that.
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: And on the other side, because I like the under here,
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: as I said, but I worry about Williams matchup numbers,
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: and I worry about King not being as good as
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: his numbers make him, looking kind of having a like.
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: A drop off this season.
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: The money is still indicating on the under, and I
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: still agree with it, and I still think that's probably
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: the best way to play this. The total seven and
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: a half. So it's a low total. Uh, it's low
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: for a reason. You get seven and a half under,
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: you gotta pay some juice for it. Though it looks
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: like about minus one twenty, but that is how I
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: would play this is pay the minus one twenty to
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: get it under seven and a half. The money seems
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: to agree with this, sixty four percent of tickets on
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: the over eighty seven percent of the cash on the under.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it seems like it has mostly.
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: The makings for an under here, and it it jumped
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: off the page to me as being an under. If
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: Williams had better matchup numbers, I think I would be
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: on this one as a play. And maybe I'm stupid.
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: Maybe you know, I'm being too selective here when things
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: don't line up. You know, I don't know. But the
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: money's also back in Cleveland. Like I said, I don't
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: think I would do that, even though I think part
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: of it is that the professionals, you know, using advanced analytics,
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: then they like Williams better than King. That's the thing.
• 50:49
  Speaker 4: But I don't like the situation at all for Cleveland.
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: Like I said, he King is certainly a capable pitcher,
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: and he has the good matchup numbers here fifty one
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: percent of the tickets ninety two percent of the cash
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: on Cleveland. I don't agree with that. I would lean
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: to San Diego in this one. Cleveland minus won twenty
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: something on the money line here, so you'll get San
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: Diego as.
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: An underdog and they have the situation.
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: I would be leaning that way as far as the side,
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: but I think the under is the best way to
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: play that game.
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: Washington and the Mets.
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: Washington played yesterday and beat up the Cubs to get
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: a game in that series. Cavali really good in that game.
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: Now they're starting a road trip with a little bit
• 51:26
  Speaker 4: of momentum, starting a road trip facing the Mets, but
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: the Mets have a rest advantage here. However, this is
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: one of those spots I was talking about. The Mets
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: are also at a disadvantage because they're returning home from
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: the road.
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: They went to Cleveland, Pittsburgh, the Braves.
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: They had a decent road trip there, started to lose
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: some games towards the end of it though, against Garrett's
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: Atlanta Braves, and now they're returning home. I think it's
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: a negative spot for the Mets, as I always do,
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: when the team's are turning on from a long.
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: Road trip like that three series, it's.
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: Tough to get something done at home and then focus
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: on baseball. Maybe they will because it's a divisional game.
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: Do you get that up for playing Washington? At this point?
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: Washington's been a good offense, but they're pitching hasn't been
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: good this year and they're not going anywhere this year.
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: So I don't know neither of the Mets.
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: But the Mets did look like they're playing with some
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: effort though, so you got to give them that.
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: But the return home spot is bad.
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: However, Again, like I said, Washington has a disadvantage here
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: as well because they could be in a letdown off
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: of that huge win against the Cobs, and they played yesterday,
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: so they're at a rest disadvantage. So there are disadvantages,
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: significant disadvantages on both sides here, So I can't just
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: key on one of them, you know what I mean,
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: because both teams are are in a negative spot here,
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: so there might be other ways to look at this
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: game besides the side. Washington only used one relief pitcher
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: yesterday though, so their bullpen is intact at least, But
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, is their bullpen ever intact?
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Really? Though?
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: They're a bad bullpen, so I still couldn't come in
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: and back them. Really, they're twenty six the bullpen the
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: Mets are ninth, and the Mets are going to have
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: a bullpen advantage here. Washington obviously has the offensive edge.
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: They're number one, still an offense not quite as good
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: at home. I don't believe Mets are twenty six. They've
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: been doing better recently, at least offensively, so you know,
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: I think if you're looking at this game, it might
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: be a game to play an over That was kind
• 53:15
  Speaker 4: of what my thought was on this. The pitching is
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: definitely not elite here, although Alvarez is the better of
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: the two starters, so I would probably still be looking
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: towards maybe a Washington first five. If you're gonna look
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: at the side here, I think it might be the
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: way to look at this game as well, and just
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: and still fade the Mets in the return home spot,
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: even though they do have a rest advantage here. I
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: would still recommend taking Washington's bullpen out of the equation though,
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: if you're gonna play Washington obviously, but I think Alvarez
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: is better than Stock the unsolved mystery.
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: He's got Robert Stock oh from the Mets here. Alvarez
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: is a younger pitcher, He's got way more upside.
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: His problem is the walks. He walks away too many guys.
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: His rora looks pretty good three point seven to six,
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: but his whip is one point four, which is not good.
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: He's been pretty good on the road though, three point
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: one roadyra Look, he's been looking pretty good recently. His
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: last couple starts have been pretty good except the walk
• 54:07
  Speaker 4: you know, I mean the walks have been kind of
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: an issue in a lot of these recent starts. Like
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: I said, that's kind of his main issue. He's got
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: a decent strike out rate. His hit rate is okay.
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: It's the walks that are the huge problem with him,
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: which is keeping his strike out walk ratio kind of down.
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: It's around where it was last year, so he's continuing
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: what he did last year. It looks like his numbers
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: are similar though the last year is whip was actually
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: a lot better last year. He was I guess less
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: hittable last year is kind of why his whip was lower,
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: but it was a small sample size. His strike ups
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: for nine have gone up a bit this year, so
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: his strike out rate looks pretty good this year. Alvarez
• 54:42
  Speaker 4: against I already forget who we're talking about. The Mets, right, Yeah,
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: They're not a very good offense. He has not had
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: a success against them, though they have ten at bats
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: against which I know isn't a big sample, but most
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: of their offense has faced him before, and they have
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: a three hundred average against him in eight seventeen ops
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: one to two strike out walk ratio, So I don't
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: really want to come in and try to back him.
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: I would still prefer him over Robert Stock though. For
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: the Mets, like, what are we doing here?
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, I guess just because they don't have anybody
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: else to fill this spot in the rotation, They're going
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: with a thirty six year old journeyman relief pitcher here
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: who has a ten ERA and a two something whip.
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Okay, he got absolutely.
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: Annihilated in his last out against Pittsburgh. He actually had a.
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: Pretty good start, like a starter's workload against Miami, which
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: makes me laugh.
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: Last time out, he was absolutely terrible. He got obliterated
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: by Pittsburgh. Nine hits and five walks allowed in three innings,
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: allowed eight runs. He probably was lucky to only allow
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: eight runs. I mean, that's insane, putting fourteen guys on base. Yeah,
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: I don't expect much from stock here. The stock is
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: very low on Stock, and I don't even know if
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: he's gonna last long in this game, but all Washington's.
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: Never faced him before, Who cares. I don't think it's
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: gonna matter.
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: He's not going to come in and fool anybody, as
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: we could tell. So yeah, I mean it does seem
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: like Washington like, however, you want to play this.
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: I think you want to fade.
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you definitely want to fade Stock in
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: this game, is what I would say here.
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: Money is agreeing with Washington.
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: Fifty five percent of tickets on the Mets, seventy seven
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Washington, and you get them.
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: I would play the first five only, though, but if
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: you're gonna do that, you're probably looking at them as
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: a favorite in the first five because the Mets are
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: basically a pickham price in the full game. So yeah, Washington,
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: you'd be looking at a favorite price in the first five,
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: but I think it would be warranted. They have the
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: better starting pitcher here, and they don't have the better bullpen,
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: so I would avoid their bullpen. The money is agree
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: with the over as well, fifty five percent of tickets
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: on the under eighty four percent of the cash on
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: the over total at eight and a half. The over
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: is definitely in play in this game, and I don't
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: think either starter is that good. Washington's bullpen is bad. However,
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: I'm thinking, you know one way that you could play
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: this if you like Washington and it's a pick em
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: price and you think the over is gonna happen, Washington
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: over their team total makes quite a bit of sense here.
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: I think you probably need them to get to five here.
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: They're one of the best. Washington's on the road here.
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: I was thinking they were at home. They're actually on
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: the road here.
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: They're better.
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: They're one of the best offices in baseball, and they're
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: on the road here, and they're better on the road too.
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: So that's definitely an option, is to take Washington over
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: their team total. So those are some options for you
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: in that game. It's not on my card, but yeah,
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: there are definitely some options there. But you get the
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: way that I'm thinking about that game. Arizona at Atlanta.
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: I believe both of these teams had rest yesterday. Atlanta
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: is staying at home off of beating the Mets. I'm
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: not sure they're really gonna be in a letdown mote
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: or anything like that. Off of that, Arizona is coming
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: in from losing to the Rockies, so it might be
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: good for them to just get out of town. Even
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: though they're having to cross time zones. They're going east,
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: which is a lot easier than going west. They're not
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: gonna overlook the Braves. Arizona's still fighting for a wildcard spot.
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: Braves are in better position here, obviously because the Braves
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: are atop their division and I don't see that changing
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: most likely, So probably a motivation allege for Arizona here,
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: but the starting pitching edge is going to be on
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: the side of Atlanta. However, the thing is you're gonna
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: have to pay a price for an elite pitcher for Atlanta,
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: Chris Sale. Atlanta does have a good bullpen. They have
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen their rest. I don't know why I'm
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: looking at that. Atlanta's number three in bullpen, which I
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: think is accurate as far as where they are. Arizona's
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: ranked fifth. However, I still will say I don't think
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: they're that good. They're not bad, but they're not that good.
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: Atlanta is better. Atlanta is the better offense. They're ranked seventh.
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: Arizona's been good since the All Star break, though, they're
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: up to eighteen, tied with the Giants. But yeah, Arizona,
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: they're not a good offense over the course of the season,
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: but they've been one of the better offenses in all
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: of baseball since the All Star break. So somebody keep
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: in mind that they've been a hotter team and they're
• 58:56
  Speaker 4: making a playoff push. Here, Arizona's got Brandon Fott on
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: the mound. He's been part of that push. He's been
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: good since they sent him to the miners. They brought
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: him back to the major league roster. I don't think
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: he's had a single bad start since then. He's got
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: his season long numbers, which looked really ugly before that.
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: He's got these numbers all back in like a good
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: range here, three point three six ERA, one point two whip.
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: He's been good on the road, kind of three point
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: one to one roady rail those road upon a batting
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: average is still worse, though, But look at what he's
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: done since they sent him down to the miners. He
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: came back on June thirtieth. Then he's allowed no more
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: than to hour runs in any start and the only
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: start of his That Arizona loss was the last one
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: against the Dodgers, and he shut them out for seven
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: innings and then the bullpen lost and they lost an
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: extra innings, so they're almost undefeated. Since he's come with
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: him on the mound, since he's come back from the miners,
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: he's pitched against some bad teams in here, but he
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: was successful against the Dodgers twice against Pittsburgh, so I
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: think it's real.
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: I think he is pitching better year. He's not striking
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: a lot of guys out, though that is one major
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: concern with them.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: The advanced analytics guys won't like that because his walk
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: rate is somewhat high, although it's been better against his
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: coming back from the miners, his hit rate is okay.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: He's he's been better than this to some extent in
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 4: the past. I think I was remembering mostly twenty twenty four.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: I think maybe I don't know, maybe it was just
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: I was misremembering, maybe rose colored glasses, because it looks
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: like he's never really been that good, and this year
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: his numbers are actually the best that he's ever had
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: this year in some ways, although his strikeout walk ratio
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 4: is actually the worst which is weird because he has
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: his best ra and whip right now that he's had,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 4: although it's been a shorter season for him and he's
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: made some bullpen appearances, but.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: He's pitching better right now.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: His numbers are getting better, although his strake out walk
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: ratio is not very good right now in the twos,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: and his strikeouts P nine have gone way down this
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: year as well. So I think that's I was still
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: kind of right that he had some issues this year.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: The underlying metrics definitely indicate that he's having his worst
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: season this year, but again, he's completely turned it around
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: since coming back from the Miners. Strike ups for nine
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: very low right now, but might be getting better. He'll
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: be going up against the Braves here now. The Braves
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: do hit him well in ninety five at bats. They
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: have a big sample two ninety five average, eight to
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: twenty three oh ps, twenty to eight strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: So these numbers are not good for FOT even though
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: he is pitching really well since coming back from the Miners. Yeah,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think he's gonna win in a
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: duel against Chris Sale. However, maybe he can keep his
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: team somehow in this game. But Chris Sale is pitching
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: for Atlanta. Like I said, he's elite still at his
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: older age two point two era one point zero two whip.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: He's been really good at home one point sixty seven
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: Homy Ray. He's still racking up strikeouts, still not along
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: a lot of runs. He's only he said, what is this,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: three shutouts over his last five appearances, and the one
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: of them was I think rain shortened in there. But yeah,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: he's not allowing a lot of runs recently obviously really
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: over the course of the season, of course, he has not.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: He's got a pretty low hit rate. He doesn't really
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: walk anybody. He strikes a lot of guys out. Still,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 4: we got good numbers here from him. Man, even if
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: he's on the down side of his career, here the
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: backside of his career, he still has a ridiculous strikeout
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. It's not as good as it once was,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: but he's been so elite throughout his career. It's like whatever,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: even when he's not at his best, he still has
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: ridiculous numbers. And his strikeouts for nine is still insane,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: like still almost where it was when he was at
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: his best. His numbers against Arizona. You know they're gonna
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: be good, but they're not as good as maybe you'd think.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: And one hundred and six at bats, two fifty five average,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: allowed seven to sixteen ops, so still good. Twenty seven
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 4: to seven strike out walk ratio is pretty good, good,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: but not as good as you might think. James McCann
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: is really the guy that does a lot of damage
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: here in a lot of the bats, so those batting
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 4: average isn't that good, but he's he's hit for some
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: power against Sale, but he also strikes out a lot
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: against him. So yeah, I don't really think Sale is
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: gonna pitch poorly here.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: You have to pay a big price.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: For Atlanta, and you know the professional money is gonna
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 4: be coming in against them. Where is Sale here ninety
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: percent of the tickets and only sixty six percent of
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: the cash On Atlanta they dropped for minus two hundred
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: basically all the way down to minus one ninety or so.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: Not a huge move there, but still it looks like
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 4: the real money is coming in on Arizona here. I
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: think if you're gonna do that, you got to take
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: them in the first five. With Arizona, I don't think
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: you back their bullpen against Atlanta's. But uh, yeah, the
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 4: full game totals at eight. I think maybe an under
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 4: in the first five might make the most. Or actually, no,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: full game, why not? It'saw we're looking at bad bullpens here, right,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: even though I don't know, I just in my mind,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: I'm thinking, Oh, Arizona's bullpen is ass like it has
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: been like last year.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: It was bad. It looked like it was gonna be
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: bad again.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: But they're capable enough and both teams are rested here,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think a full game under is probably
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: the best way to play this.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 3: Fott has been really good since coming back from the mind.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: I know his matchup numbers are definitely concerning, though sale
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: doesn't really have any concerns for me. Tickets ninety two
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the over, which looks like
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: a really public over sEH. I think if you're gonna
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 4: play the game, I think maybe the under is the
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: better way to look at that game than anything else.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: All right, Yankees in Toronto on Apple TV. Uh, this
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 4: is the other Apple TV game besides the Wrigley Afternoon
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 4: game here.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: Wriggling out of it. No, I don't know. I don't
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: really have a joke for that.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 4: I have no idea Yankees are gonna be coming in
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: from playing Seattle yesterday. Yankees lost the game yesterday to Seattle,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: won nothing. I did still lean to the under there,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: but Logan Gilbert was way better than I thought he
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 4: would be in that game. It looks like and outdueled
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: Max Freed. I guess just slightly enough just to win
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 4: that game. Toronto is staying at home and coming off
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 4: that loss to the Red Sox yesterday. Now Toronto they're
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 4: playing out the stretch, not much to play for it,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 4: but they'll get up for games against the Red Sox
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: and the Yankees, you know, so will try to win.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: This game at the very least.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: But the Yankees are gonna have a lot of advantages here.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: The Yankees have the better bullpen.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: They use three guys out of the bullpen yesterday, but
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 4: not really any of their better relievers, so they will
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: have a bullpen edge. Well, the Toronto's bullpen is okay.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 4: Toronto used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. It
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: didn't really go that well for them. Some of their
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: better relievers are available here today. But Yankees will have
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: the bullpen edge. They're number four in WHIP, but they're
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: number two in ERA. They're one of the top bullpens.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: Toronto is number seventeen, but they're an okay bullpen. Yankees
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: are better there. Yankees are better offensively as well, even
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: though they haven't been good recently.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: They're at fifteenth. Toronto's dead last thirtieth. They don't really
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 4: have an advantage there over anybody starting pitching. Looks like
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 4: you got to give it to the Yankees as well.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: With Garrett Cole in the mound, he's having a good
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 4: season coming back from injury here three point three to
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: five ERA, one point oh eight WHIP. Slightly worse on
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: the road three point five to two. Roady IRA's opponent
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 4: batting average is also worse on the road, so more
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: beatable on the road. But he's been good recently, like
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: he's settled down and he hasn't had a bad start
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: since June at this point.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: So yeah, he's.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: Pitching really well right now, hardly walking anybody. He's racking
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: up a good amount of strikeouts here. There's not a
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: lot to dislike about what he's doing right now. He's
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 4: got a pretty low hit rate, He's not walking really anybody.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rates pretty high. So even though he's not
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: what he once was, yeah, he's pitching well. Nonetheless, his
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is gone way up from where it
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: was in twenty twenty four, so coming back from injury,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 4: it looks like he's actually improved a little bit. Although
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: we will see strikeouts per nine, I think have improved slightly. Yeah,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: only slightly, but yeah, not much different, but a slight
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: improvement there as well.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: And it's still a good number. It's above nine.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: Cole against Toronto not as good as you would think,
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: kind of mediocre numbers here, but I would say I
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: would still be leaning more towards Coal pitching well here.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: He's got one hundred and fifty at bats against them.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: Vladimir Guerrero and Aljandra Kirk actually both like kind of
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 4: destroy him. But it's just those two guys, like nobody
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: else in the lineup does that much against him. Two
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: sixty seven average, seven to twenty two o ps, twenty
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: eight to six strike a walk ratio. I would still
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: lean more towards Cole doing well here. He can get
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: around those two guys in the lineup, and Shane Bieber
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: is going for Toronto.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 3: He's a mystery man. I mean, he's had a good career.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: Uh, you know, I like him, so we don't want
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: it to be a shortened career, you know what I mean.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 4: Like these injuries seem to have totally derailed him. When
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: he came back last year, he was good. Then he
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: had another injury, and he hasn't really been very good
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: this year. And he's been he was like an elite
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: pitcher not that long ago when he was on Cleveland
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: and he's still not old. Uh five point four to
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: eighty R one point sixty six whip this year, though
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: that's not good. He's been significantly better at home though
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: two point eight six. Homie Ray wasn't bitching well last
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 4: time out against Philly on the road.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: That wasn't a good start. He was pretty good in
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: the start before that.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 4: He's kind of alternated good and bad starts, but like
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 4: three of his last five have been pretty good.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: He's a roller coaster man. He's hard to predict. I
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: don't know what to expect.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 4: Sometimes he comes out there and it looks like he's
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 4: given you some of his better stuff, and then other
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: times it looks like he's awful.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: His hit rate is still too high. His walk rate
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: is still way too high, strike up rate is still down.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: So his numbers still don't look good at all. And
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: you'll get his career numbers here. Last year, when he
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: came back, he was putting up some strong numbers where
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: he looked like his former self.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: This year not at all. Strike Out walk ratio usually
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: around five, is below two this year. Something wrong with him. Man.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: Well, we know it's like related to the injuries, probably,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: but last year his strikeouts per nine was down, but
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: it was still close to nine.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: It's lower than that this year as well, so that's
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: not good.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: His numbers against the Yankees are good, but a lot
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 4: of this was in the past twenty five at bats.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: They only have one extra base.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: He had a double from Grisham two hundred average, four
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: ninety nine ohps, three to two strike out walk ratio.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 3: He has good.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: Matchup numbers, and he's got the potential to still pitch
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: well here. I mean, this looks like a game the
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: Yankees should probably win, but you're laying a price for it.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: Minus won forty something and the money is not coming
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: in that way. Sixty three percent of tickets, sixty percent
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the Yankees the money is backing Toronto.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: I would say, if you're going to back Toronto, I
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 4: think you should back them first five because the Yankees
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: will have a bullpen advantage here. I think it's all
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: about the price. I think it's just, you know, you're
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 4: paying too much of a price for the Yankees with
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: coal on the mound, and nobody really likes Bieber anymore,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: getting kind of disrespected here. He might still be capable
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: of pitching. Well, you know what I mean, you saw
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: the matchup numbers is still good. He's had some good starts,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 4: and there's still the good Bieber I think is still.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: In there somewhere, like he's not that old yet.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: Full game totals at eight sixty percent of tickets on
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: the under eighty eight percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 4: I think that is what I would do if I
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: was gonna play this game. I think I would just
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: take a shot with the under. I think that's what
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: I would do here. I mean, I think you have
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: decent pitching at least throughout this game.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: Maybe.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: I mean Bieber is the biggest concern that in Toronto's
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: bullpen rest scenario somewhat, but I would be okay with
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 4: back in the bullpens. Here, it's really just what bieber
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: are you gonna get here? That's really the main concern, man.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: So the other thing you can do is play Toronto
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: to go under their team total. If you think the
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: Yankees are probably gonna win and Toronto is not gonna
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: hit well because they've been a bad offense, you thinkto
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: you think the game is gonna go under Toronto team total.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: Under makes sense, but you're gonna be looking at I
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: would guess it'll be three and a half would be
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 4: the numbers.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: So you need them to score three or less.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: They did score zero yesterday, so they scored less than
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: three and a halving two of those four games against
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox, even though they won one of them.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 4: I believe so well, yeah, because yesterday was the only
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 4: game they didn't win in that series.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: And the price is similar on.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: The Yankees today that it was to a Yankees are
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: similarly priced in this game as the Red Sox were
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 4: in yesterday's game. Let's put it that way. So Peyton
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 4: totally getting some respect there, all right, I'll be right back.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: We'll talk about the rest of these games. I believe
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: I have one more playing here. Somewhere I do in baseball,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: and I am going to give out a w NBA
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 4: play because I love pain.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: I'll be right back yep.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: It was just complete bullshit.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 4: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 4: Sunday one and five.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: OWN four next have not had a good season. Man
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: hat Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: the Bruins. Arch eight? Is that what it is? I
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: don't even know it's it's March ninth. I think who
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: even knows?
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 4: Man, I don't know what day is anymore, but I
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: don't even know what data is anymore.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: Man, back with you after the worst day that I.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: Could possibly have, Back with you as I always am
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: until I die at least oh and two yesterday and
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: Own five the worst.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: Month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: The slump series, the slump disconvenus, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: fucking kill me, please.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: Next game is Seattle Houston. This is one of those
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 4: games where Houston has a rest advantage, but they also
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: have a disadvantage, and that they're returning home from the
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 4: Pacific Coast. They went to San Diego and San Francisco.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 4: They were off yesterday and the Mariners were not. When
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 4: the Mariners beat the Yankees yesterday, which is a big win.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 4: Houston returning home, though, could be a distracted spot, having
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 4: to get back to home life. However, you know, I
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: think the distraction might come into play here because Houston
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 4: is five games up in the division now over Seattle,
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 4: at least only two on Texas. But Texas might be dead.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: I'll talk about Texas in a minute, but I think
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 4: they're in trouble. Well, I'll just met it it's because
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 4: de Gram got hurt. So yeah, not good times for
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: Texas here. I think Texas is done. I think the
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: division is gonna go to either Seattle or Houston at
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 4: this point. Seattle could be in a letdown because they
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 4: beat the Yankees and they ended a six game losing streak,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: so you know that. I always talk about when a
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: team loses a win, when they end a losing streak,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 4: a lot of times that new momentum.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 3: Will carry forward. Like, you could arguably be in.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: A letdown spot, but I don't really think so. They
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: have to focus on the Astros. Right Seattle's five games
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: back in the division. They have a chance here in
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 4: this series. If they can do something in this series,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 4: they got to focus here. So I think you will
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: get focused out of Seattle here. Houston, in the return
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: home spot might lack focus. However, they have the rest
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 4: advantage here. Like I said, Seattle did use some of
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 4: their better relievers just today to finish the game off
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: against the Yankees.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: They use three guys, so.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: Their bullpen it's good, but the shape that it's in
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: might not be that good. Houston probably does have the
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: bullpen edge here, which sounds crazy to say they're ranked
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: tenth in bullpen.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 3: Seattle is sixteenth.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 4: Though generally I would say Seattle probably is the better bullpen,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 4: but because of the usage, I think maybe it tilts
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: the scales towards Houston a little bit here.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: Out of the bullpen.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: Since they are ranked close hitting wise, there's no doubt
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 4: Houston's better. Houston is eighth, tie with Miami, m Milwaukee,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: Seattle twenty eighth, tie with Cleveland. Yeah, not good, not
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 4: a good sign. Seattle has got George Kirby on the mound.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: He's pretty good, three point six eighty RRA, one point
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 4: two to seven whip. However, he's one of those Seattle
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 4: pitchers who's definitely better at home than on the road.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 4: And he's on the road here. He's got a four
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 4: point one ROADI arey and a three to eleven opponent
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: batting average on the road. That's not good, so he
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: might be a bit fadable on the road here. He's
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: made most of his recent starts at home, and his
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 4: last road start was very bad against Texas, which is
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 4: not a good sign. His command numbers have mostly been
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: good over that stretch, although recently his strikeout race has
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: gone way down.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: And I don't know exactly why. He's not a huge
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: strike up picture to begin with, though, but he's been
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 3: too hittable.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 4: That's been his problem. His hit rate is actually too high.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is fine, it's low. In fact, it's good.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is I would say too low as well,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 4: though he doesn't really strike that many guys out, But
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: because he doesn't walk anybody, his strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 4: still good, so I would still consider him to be good.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 4: His strikeouts for nine, it's gone down this year a
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 4: bit from what he has done in the past. It's
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 4: not awful, but it's not great. Kirby, you know, having
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 4: one of his lesser seasons right now. Really, I guess
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: Houston he's been pretty good. They have one hundred and
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: seventy two at bats against him, so they've seen a
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 4: lot of them.
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 3: And they have a two.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: Fifty six average, which is okay, but at five to
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: seventy nine ohps, so they really have not hidden for power.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 4: He has good command numbers against them, thirty six strikeouts,
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 4: five walks, so I think Kirby might do well here.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 4: Peter Lambert is pitching for Houston. He's having the only
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 4: good season that he's ever had a three point zero
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 4: nine YRRA one point one to five whip with him,
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 4: you got to worry about the innings count because he's
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: thrown more innings this year than he ever has before.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 4: And he's getting up there a little bit, but it's not.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: Too high yet.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 4: I would say you got to keep an eye on
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: him a little bit. His walk number has kind of
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 4: gone up recently. He's gone a little bit less far
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: into some of these games recently, still not allowing that
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: many runs though he's still pitching pretty effectively here. He's
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 4: got a really low hit rate on the season. His
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 4: walk rate is okay. His strike out rate is almost
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: one per inning, so that's not bad. His strikeout walk
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 4: ratio is not really that good though, actually, because his
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: walk rate is, it could be better for sure, so
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 4: that's a little bit of an issue there. His strikeouts
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 4: for nine are at their highest that they ever have
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 4: been this year, which is a good sign for him.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 4: He's going up against a pretty weak Seattle offense and
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 4: they have not done much against him. They have thirty
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: nine at bats, two h five average, five to seventy ops,
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: fourteen to three strike up walk ratio. What do we
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: do with this game? I would probably say under. I
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 4: think that might be the way to approach this. Both
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 4: bullpens should be in all right shape to get it done.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: I know Seattle had some usage yesterday, but they're generally
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 4: a pretty good bullpen. Houston's is rested, and I think
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 4: they're a good bullpen as well. The screen won't load
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 4: up here, it is the money's not agreeing.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 3: With that though.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 4: The totals eight and a half fifty six per cent
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: of tickets on the under ninety two percent of the
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: cash on the over money coming in in the over.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: I disagree. I would say.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 4: Under in this game. My main concern would be Kirby
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: is not good on the road. That's my main concern here,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 4: and his matchup numbers are kind of mediocre against Houston.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: But the money is back in Seattle. I think it's
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: because it's the return home spot for Houston. I don't
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: really want to come in and do that though, because Kirby, again,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 4: he's not that good on the road. Seattle not rested,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 4: had a big win yesterday.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 3: Of the Yankees.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: That worries me a little bit, but Seattle should have
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: a lot of motivation here still, and it's the return
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 4: home spot for Houston. Sixty seven percent of tickets on Houston,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: eighty seven percent of the cash on Seattle Houston. Is
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 4: it about minus one twenty something here down for minus
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 4: one thirty So legit money looks like it is coming in.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 3: And backing Seattle.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: And I think some of it might be the advanced
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 4: analytics guy saying that Kirby is more legit than Lambert. Maybe,
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 4: but again, I don't like some of the numbers that
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: I'm seeing here, well really from either.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 3: Of them, But I don't know. Man.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: Overall, I still think the pitching is just better in
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 4: that game than it is in most games. So I
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 4: would say under still all right, And Houston might have
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: distracted hitting.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 3: Coming back home from the road, so that kind.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 4: Of that would stifle the better of the two offenses
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 4: a bit if that was the case. Kansas City and
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: Anaheim this is my other play here. People might not
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: be might have not predicted this one. I'm gonna go
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 4: with Kansas City in the.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 3: First five here.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 4: I think they have a situational edge, they have a
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: rest edge I believe here, and I think they have
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching edge here. So let's take Kansas city
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: and avoid their bad bullpen because their bullpen still sucks,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: although I know they didn't use anybody yesterday because they rested.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 4: Anaheim's bullpen isn't good and they did use three guys
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: just today, but I.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: Don't want to deal with it. The Royals are one
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: of the worst bullpens. They're ranked dead last.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 4: I think they're probably better than the A's, but that's
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 4: not saying much.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 3: Angels bullpen is twenty second.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 4: They're better than the Royals, though, so I'm gonna avoid
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: the Royals bullpen here, even though they are arrested. Offensively,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 4: Anaheim's been pretty ugly twenty seventh not good, and they're
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: not good at home either, so I think their offense
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: definitely could be held down here. The Royals not good
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 4: at twenty second, but they've actually they've been the better
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: offense over Anaheim, even though the Royals have not.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: Been good on the road.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 4: Offensively, We're gonna need some offense here for them to
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 4: actually hit this. Although if it's a nothing, nothing game,
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 4: it'll push at least. I don't think it will be though,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: because these pitchers just aren't really that good. But we're
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 4: gonna back seth Lugo, I think is the better of
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: the two pitchers right now, even though he's been very
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 4: mediocre here four point four to one ERA, one point
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 4: three to seven Whip. He's not good on the road,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 4: I know, five point three to one road Ray, two
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 4: ninety four road upon a batting average that's not good.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 4: He was good in his last start though, against other Cobs,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: so maybe that's a decent sign.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 3: Most of his recent starts have been good. He had
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: a bad start.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 4: In course Field, but I'm kind of willing to give
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: him a pass for that because it was course Field.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: If you take that out, He's had four of his
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: last five starts have been good.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 3: That's the only start that wasn't good. So he isn't
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 3: kind of good form right now, although he only had
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 3: one other Roads start in there, but it was fairly
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: good against Minnesota. He's got a high hit rate. I
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: get that, it's not really that good.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is kind of mediocre, strike out rate's
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 4: not really that high. I get all that those numbers
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 4: aren't really that good. He's not as good as he
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 4: once was. He had some pretty good seasons in here
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: back in the day. A lot most of it is
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: a relief pitcher. Though as a starter, you know, he
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: was decent as well, and I get it he's not
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 4: as good the last two seasons really, but this year
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: he's kind of matched what he did last year, so whatever.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: But yeah, his strikeout walk ratio is below three, which
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: isn't excellent. I know, strikeout per nine has gone down
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 4: as well. I mean, of course it was higher when
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 4: he was a reliever though, because when you're a reliever,
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 4: you got your best stuff right out of.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 3: The gate and then you're done. But as a starter,
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 3: you know, your stuff diminishes. But we're going first five
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 3: here too, so hopefully we get the best of Lugo.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: Early in the game and he's still not pitching that horribly.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: And also, you know he's going up against an Angels
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 4: offense that isn't good and they are only mediocre against
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 4: Lugo forty eight at best two seventy.
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 3: One average a lot. I know that's not great.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 4: That is kind of high seven forty four oh ps,
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 4: right around that seven to fifty cutoff. But I still
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 4: like him over Grayson Rodriguez, who's that's what we're going
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 4: to fade here. Plus the spot seven strikeouts, one walk
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: off for Lugo in there. The other thing I forgot
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: to mention is some of this is also not just
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 4: about the fact that Anaheim played yesterday.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: They swept or they didn't sweep.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: They won the last three of their four games against
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: the Rangers and shut them out yesterday. So I think
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: the Anaheim might be in a letdown spot here, man.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: I mean, you understand they would get up for a
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: series against their divisional foe Texas and try to get
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: that thing done, you know what I mean.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: And that was probably considered to be a big win
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: for them.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 4: Do you think they're really going to put in that
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: much effort coming up those big games after they knocked
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 4: de Gram out of the game and then won that game.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: But they won that game kind of misleadingly because de Grom,
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 4: you know, he was injured in the second inning, so
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 4: he got taken out of that game.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 3: And Urania did pitch well again for Anaheim.
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: And I did say I think I said first five
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 4: under in that game. I'm not sure if it hit
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 4: or not, though, because I know de Grom gave up
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 4: a couple of runs right before he got hurt, or
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 4: maybe because he got hurt.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: But Anaheim urine is not on the mound for them today,
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 4: so they're gonna have a much worse pitcher here. So
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 4: there are some things that were specific about that matchup
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: that helped them win that game, or specific about that game,
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 4: and you actually saw I think I showed you yesterday
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 4: to Gram. I think his numbers against Anaheim were actually bad.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 4: I think as well, which is interesting. But yeah, anyway, Anaheim,
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 4: they're not gonna do as well here. They might be
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 4: in a letdown spot here. Plus they're not they have
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 4: no days off, like I said, whereas Kansas City does
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: have time off here in Kansas City. I know they're
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 4: coming in from playing LA, but they're staying in the
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: LA area with a day so I think that's good, right, Like,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 4: so the travel spot is nothing for both teams. Neither
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 4: team is traveling, so that you know, Kansas City is
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: fine with that obviously, just going thirty minutes up the
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 4: road or whatever to play this game. Yes, I know
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: they're coming off a big series against the Dodgers, but
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 4: I don't think Kansas City is really gonna overlook anybody.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 4: And again, they have the rest edge and we're gonna
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: fade Grayson Rodriguez here, Who's he's just.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: Been bad, dude.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, it looked like he might be alright, trending
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 4: in the right direction with Baltimore, and injury totally derailed
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 4: him and he hasn't been able to come back from that.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 4: This year's seven point two ERA one point six to two whip,
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 4: that's not good.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 3: His strike out walk ratio is not good. It's below two.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: So you want to, you know, you want to complain
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 3: about Logo's numbers Rodriguez is are worse, even though his
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: strike out rate is actually better.
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 4: But I don't care because the rest of his numbers
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: aren't good. He's been awful at home nine point one
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 4: home here with a three thirty six opponent batting average
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 4: at home. That's some really fadable stuff. He was not
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 4: good in his last outing at Miami, so that's not good.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 4: He's not going deep into most of his outings he's had.
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I mean, he's had really like
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: two good outings in here. I guess I would say
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: maybe not good. He's got a high hit rate, high
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 4: walk rate, strike got rate is decent, like I said,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 4: but the rest of these numbers not good at all.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 4: And against Kansas City. We have a limited sample, but
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 4: they've done damage against them. The five hitters who have
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 4: seen him eleven at bats, they have a four to
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: fifty five average against him, fifteen seventy one ops home
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 4: runs from Isabel and Perez. Of course, we else, although
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 4: I know Perez is way older now, But yeah, I
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 4: say we do it. It's about the spot. I think
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 4: we do get the better starting pitcher on the mount
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 4: as well. We get the rest edge here as well.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 4: Let's take the Royals in the first five, which is
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 4: right around kind of where it is in the full game.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 4: It's kind of just like a pick'm price here. They
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: have sixty one percent of ticket, sixty four percent of
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: the cash on them, so the money looks like it
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 4: might be kind of agreeing with that. I mean, I
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 4: don't really think the public is getting involved in this
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 4: game heavily at all.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're gonna want either team here. Really.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: They might lean more towards Anaheim though, because Anaheims would
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: played better baseball recently. Although Kansas City sneakily, man, they
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 4: were pretty competitive against the Dodgers, you know what I mean.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 4: I know it could be a hangover coming off the
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 4: Dodgers series. But if you're playing competitively against the Dodgers,
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 4: Anaheim is a big time step down from what.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: The Dodgers are.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 4: Obviously, you're talking about possibly going from playing the best
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 4: team in baseball to playing debatably maybe even.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: The worst team in baseball.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: And Anaheim, so although you could debate Kansas City's the worst,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 4: I don't know. The money is also somewhat back in
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 4: the under, it looks like, but it's a public under
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: as well, although I don't really see that being the case.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 4: You really think the public is coming in and playing
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 4: it under in this I mean, I guess.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 3: If they're if their.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: Thoughts about it are these are two bad teams, so
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 4: they can't score, so let's play the under.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: Maybe that thought's going around there. I don't know.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: Man, totals at eight and a half there. I got
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: nothing on the total in that one though. But Kansas
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 4: City first five is the play Texas in the aas
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 4: Texas coming out that game where one of their best
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: pitchers got injured, Jacob deGrom, that's really gonna hurt Texas
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 4: in the stretch run Man, if it's gonna you know,
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 4: if he's gonna be out for a while. They're in trouble.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 4: They need him for that stretch run. Sorry, I'm all
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: over the place here. Things aren't loading fast for me either.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: Right now.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 4: The As they're coming off getting swept by Tampa, but
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 4: they're staying at home. They had yesterday off, so the
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 4: A's have a rest advantage here against Texas.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: Because Texas played yesterday.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: And because de Grom got injured, Texas had to use
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 4: a lot of their bullpen. They use five guys out
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen, so they have the better bullpen over
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 4: the A's with their bullpen hasn't been that good this
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 4: year and they're not in good shape here. The A's
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 4: are rested, although there's still a very unpackable bullpen. I
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 4: think these bullpens are both totally unbackable in this game.
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 4: Texas nineteenth and bullpen to begin with, that's not good.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 4: A's are twenty ninth, but I think they're the worst
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: hitting wise, both teams are reasonably capable. A's are sixteenth,
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 4: Rangers are twentyeth now, though they're not as good. But
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: we are looking at a hit or friendly ballpark here,
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 4: so you know, you see where I'm going with this.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 4: Like the over I think is in play in this game,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 4: potentially Kumar Rockers pitching for Texas. He's been okay four
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 4: point four to six ERA one point three to eight WHIP.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 4: His strikeout walk ratio has never been that impressive. It's
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: below three. Strikeout per nine, is okay in the in
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 4: the eights, a lot of okay here. He's actually well.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 4: I think you could make the argument he is worse
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 4: on the road, even though his eray is better three
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: point seventy nine.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 3: His rays a run better on the road.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 4: But his opponent batting average is way worse on the
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: road two seventy six road upon a batting average.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 3: It's just that he's allowed.
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 4: Way more home runs at home, although he's pitched way
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: more innings at home too.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I don't know what the deal is with that.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: But I think Rocker might get rocked in this game,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: or might at least give up something in this game,
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 4: because I don't think he's really that good. His hit
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 4: rate is right at one per inning, his walk rate's
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 4: kind of high. Strike out rate is mediocre. It's it's
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: not horrible, but he's not like a huge strike up pitcher.
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 4: He's going up against an A's offense in the a Stadium.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: By the way, the A's have hit him well in
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: thirty seven at bats. They only have seven guys who
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: have faced him, but a three seventy eight to average,
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: one THO forty seven oh ps, sixty five strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 4: None of those numbers are good for Rocker. And you
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: gotta see is he flyball heavy? I mean, he's not
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 4: that flyball heavy, but he has a lot a lot
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: of home runs this year, so he is liable to
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 4: give up some home runs here in this as stadium,
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: which is something you got to be aware of because
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 4: the stadium is very home run conducive.
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: Gauge jump is pitching for the A's.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 4: Is that really how he pronounce his name or is
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 4: it like I don't know, guy ye hoomp, Like I
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 4: seriously have no idea how his name is supposed to
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 4: be pronounced. He's from Elizo Viajo, California, so I'm wondering
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 4: if it's like I don't know, is this Spanish? I
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 4: have no idea gauge jump though, he's got a four
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 4: point four to six or one point four to six whip,
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 4: which I know doesn't look that good, but it's mostly
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 4: because he's been bad pitching in this stadium six point
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 4: one six home ra and again he is there here today,
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: so three h two opponent batting average at home. He's
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 4: been way better on the road. He's actually been pretty
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 4: good on the road. I think he's actually a good pitcher,
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: but pitching in this stadium has really really been pretty ugly.
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 4: He's coming off a really nice effort with eleven strikeouts
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 4: at Femway Park against the Red Sox, picked up a win.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 4: He beat the Red Sox twice during that spam of
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox were on fire. He was the only
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 4: pitcher to beat the Red Sox during that span, and
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox yeah, only lost two games during that
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 4: entire stretch. Both of them were against Gage Jump.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 3: Really crazy. Do I think Jump is actually gonna do
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 3: that well here? Maybe not.
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is too high on the season. His
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 4: walk rate is too high, so that's another thing. He's
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 4: got to get his walks under control. His strike out
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 4: rate is good, like he's got talent. He's got a
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: good strike out rate. His strikeout walk race is still
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 4: not good because his walk rate's too high. Kse for
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 4: nine though over ten that's really good for rookies, so
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: he's got really good talent here. I think he needs
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 4: to try to get on a different team.
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: He'll be way better if he's not pitching in this
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: A's stadium and if a coach can work with him
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 4: and get his command in check, which I don't think
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: is gonna happen.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: With the A's necessarily because they suck. They're pitching is bad. Now.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: Jump has never faced the Rangers before, so he does
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 4: have an advantage there where the Rangers haven't seen him before,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 4: so that is an advantage.
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 3: To him, you know.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 4: I mean, the A's do have a rest edge, and
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 4: I do think probably Jump is the preferred starter here
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 4: based on what we see here where he's got unfamiliarity
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 4: where his rocker has bad matchup members. So I think
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 4: I would lean to the A's. Oh, temporary unavailable. Thank you,
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 4: thanks a lot, guys. Wayger talk pregame is just completely dead,
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 4: and wager talk is you know, not letting me load
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 4: this page.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: That's just great, thanks guys.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 4: So I guess I'm not gonna be able to use
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 4: the market anymore here, but I would say first five
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 4: A's makes some sense here. You'll probably pay a little
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 4: bit more than what the money line is, which is
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 4: minus one fifteen or so. I think you'll pay a
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 4: little bit more for it in the first five. But
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 4: because everybody knows their bullpen's bad. But I think that's
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 4: a way to lean in this game. And I would
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: say over the nine and a half is the other
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 4: way to look in that game.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 3: So those are I think are the two options in
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 3: that game.
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 4: I think maybe the over is preferable to anything else,
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: but I would also again lean to the A's in
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 4: the first five.
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 3: Thanks guys.
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: All right, Milwaukee and Dodgers ESPN Unlimited game here.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: This is one of the big series of the weekend here.
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 3: I believe it's a weekend here.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's Friday, right, so all these are weekends series
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 4: and this series started yesterday. And I told you I
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 4: thought Milwaukee had a decent shot to get that game,
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 4: and they did.
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 3: They won five to four.
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: Dodgers might be in a bounced back spot after that, though,
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. Dodgers are the better team,
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 4: and I think in this game they're gonna have the
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 4: better starting pitcher, they have the better hitting, they don't
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen. So that's the one disadvantage I
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 4: think that the Dodgers have in this game is the bullpen.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 4: They use five guys out of the bullpen, and they're
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 4: not the better ball been to begin with. Milwaukee used three,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 4: although they did use their closer, so Milwaukee, I think
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: still is the better bullpen.
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 3: The rank eighth.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 4: The Dodgers are twelveth, but Milwaukee's got an ERA out
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen half a run better. Dodgers are the
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: better offense their second, although I think they're a little
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 4: bit better on the road.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee is eighth, tied with Houston and Miami.
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee obviously is still a capable offense, so these offenses
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 4: can both do some damage. Milwaukee's going with Robert Gasser
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 4: in this game, though, and he's he's mediocre. I think
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 4: he is better than his four point five to seven
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 4: ERA makes him look one point two to whip is
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 4: not that bad. He's not good on the road though,
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 4: five point eight seven roadier, right, so that's a problem.
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 4: Wasn't really good last time out against Minnesota. He looks
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 4: to be dwindling a little bit, like his starts have
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 4: kind of gotten a little bit worse recently. He's not
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 4: going as deep into some of these games. His hit
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: rate is still okay, he doesn't really walk anybody. His
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: strike cut rate is decent as well, so those numbers
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: look are right. His strike out walk raciarily in the
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 4: three is definitely not too bad. Strekeouts per nine actually
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 4: at their highest this year, so not too bad either. However, again,
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 4: he's bad on the road, and he's facing a very
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 4: good offense here, and the Dodgers have gotten to him
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 4: in the past nineteen at bats against him three sixty
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 4: eight average, fourteen sixty fourteen twenty six oh pas, excuse me,
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 4: six to three strikeout walk ratio. So I don't really
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 4: want to try to back Gasser in this one. And
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 4: he's obviously the lesser pitcher going up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 4: who has a two point six y five RA point
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 4: eight nine whip. Really good stuff here, although he's actually
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 4: been less good at home three point two eight home array,
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 4: but his opponent batting average at home is still below
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 4: two hundred, so it's kind of been the home runs
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 4: being a little bit of an issue for him at home,
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 4: which is a little weird. He's good, though, man, I mean,
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 4: he had an outing where he was walking too many
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 4: guys last time out against Arizona, but he still got
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 4: through that start. He's been kind of alternating good and
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 4: bad starts as far as the walks are concerned, but
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's a major issue with him. He's
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 4: he's really hard to hit, so he's got a low
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 4: hit rate. His walk rate is not bad either. His
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 4: strike up rates pretty good as well. I mean, we
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 4: know he's a good pitcher. His strikeout walk racios four,
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: that's a solid number. He's not the greatest strike up pitcher,
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 4: and in fact, his strikeout stuff has actually gone down
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 4: this year from where it was last year, So maybe
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: that's a little bit concerning, But yeah, I mean he's
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 4: a good pitcher overall.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 3: We know this.
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 4: He's one of the best pitchers on the Dodgers' staff,
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 4: and he's been good against Milwaukee. In forty nine at
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 4: bats two or four average six four ohps, allowed seven
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: to four strikeout walk racious. So the ratio is not good,
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: the rest of the numbers are good. I think the
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are the way to look in this game. Oh yeah,
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 4: I keep going back to that tab and we can't
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 4: see the fucking numbers. Uh Dodgers, though, if you're gonna
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 4: play them, they're minus one ninety three. So it's like
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 4: the price is too high on the Dodgers here. You
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 4: can't really play him that way. You could lay the
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 4: minus one and a half run line if you wanted to.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 4: I guess maybe that is actually the way to play this,
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 4: even though I know it seems dangerous. And the Dodgers
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 4: have not won like over their last stretch, even when
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 4: they've been winning game games. Again, the only one one
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 4: game by more than that, it was a two run
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 4: win against the Royals.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 3: Uh So they're wins recently against.
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 4: The Royals, two of them are by one run, and
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 4: in that stretch they were losing most of the games.
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 4: In this recent stretch, so I think they haven't won
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 4: besides that one game against the Royals where they won
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 4: by two, they haven't won by They haven't won a
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 4: game by more than one.
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 3: Run, probably going back two weeks.
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 4: So that is kind of a concern if you're gonna
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 4: lay the run line with the Dodgers, yere, I'm assuming
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 4: the money is not going to be backing them in
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 4: this game, but I do think it's a bounced back
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 4: spot for them.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 3: I think there might be some ways to look at this.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 4: I do think I would still lay the run line
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 4: even though the total is low at seven and a half. Yeah,
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 4: I mean, I just think that's the way to take it. Well, actually,
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 4: you know what I would, I would do the first
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 4: five run line, right because I don't like the Dodgers'
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 4: bultpen But I think Yamamoto.
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 3: Over gas or is a look. But it'll it'll be
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 3: a price, you know what I mean.
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 4: You might even have to lay like a minus one
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 4: run line of the first five, which is not fun
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 4: to do, although you need you just need them to
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: be winning at the end of five, and if they're
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 4: winning by at least wanted to at least push. But then,
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 4: of course you could look at the team totals market.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 4: You could take Dodgers to just go over their team
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 4: total maybe that's an option. Or you could go with
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee to go under their team total those or you
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 4: could do both, you know what I mean, Like take
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 4: your bet size and put half on Milwaukee under team total,
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 4: on the other half of the Dodgers over their team
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 4: total total and make them independent bets, and then if
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 4: one of them cashes, you won't you know, be busted
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 4: or anything. But when you do something like that, like
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 4: to actually win money on that, you need them both
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: to hit, though, and if they both hit, it's highly
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 4: likely the Dodgers are just gonna cash on the run line.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 4: So you know, maybe that's stupid, but you could isolate
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 4: the one of the two that you think is better.
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 4: I don't know which one, but given that the total
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 4: is low, maybe Milwaukee team total under. I don't like
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 4: that either though, because I don't I don't like the
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 4: Dodgers' bullpen, so I actually think, I don't know, Dodgers
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 4: over their team total actually might be the better way
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 4: to play it.
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 3: All right, Oh we're back. Hell yeah?
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 4: Uh so looking at uh yeah, we don't see any
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 4: percentages on that Texas.
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 3: A's game with the side.
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 4: We do see money coming in on the under in
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 4: that game, which I did not agree with. So that's interesting,
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 4: I guess. And then we have the game that I
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 4: just talked about. The money is fading the Dodgers as
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 4: I expected. They're in the minus one seventies range. Like
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 4: I said, so eighty two percent of tickets, seventy nine
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on them.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 3: Whatever I mean.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 4: It looks like the money is back in Milwaukee, I
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 4: wouldn't do it. Money is backing the over though, over
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 4: seven and a half, so I think, yeah, looking at
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 4: all that Dodgers team total over might be the better
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 4: approach in that game.
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 3: And then we have a really ugly game to close
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 3: it out.
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 4: Colorado and San Francisco two teams that are going nowhere. Uh,
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 4: this has taking way too long to get through the
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: baseball I think me adding the extra pitching stats, I
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: got to figure out a way to kind of condense this.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 4: I don't know how to do it, though, because baseball
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 4: is the only sport run getting into all the matchup
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 4: numbers like this.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 3: San Francisco staying at home.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 4: I think both teams are off yesterday. San Francisco has
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 4: been losing a bunch of games recently. They don't hit
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: well at home. Colorado will be traveling in from Arizona,
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 4: so not really a bad travel spot here, but they
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 4: did just win the series against Arizona, so they're putting
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 4: an effort at least. Although I guess you could argue
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 4: maybe a letdown component to this. I don't know, but
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're really going to overlook any of
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: their divisional opponents. Looking on the surface, it looks like
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is the better starter here, but I'm not
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 4: quite so sure about that. Both bullpens are rested, but
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 4: the bullpens aren't very good. San Francisco's is twenty fourth,
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 4: Colorado twenty seventh, so I wouldn't really want to back
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 4: the Bullpens here even if they are arrested. Colorado is
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: the better offense.
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 3: They're fifth. The Giants are eighteenth, tied with Arizona.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 4: Like I said, I thought the Giants would fall off offensively.
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 4: Kyle Freeland is pitching for the Rockies. Not good six
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 4: point six y three RA, one point five whip. He's
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 4: actually worse on the road outside of course field, which
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 4: go figure. I can't figure it, but seven point eight
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 4: to one ROADI are in a three twenty opponent.
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 3: Batting average on the road. That's bad.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 4: He had one really good start at home against Kansas City,
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 4: and then of course he followed that up with another
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 4: pretty questionable outing on the road against Saint Louis. So yeah,
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 4: he's he's not good. I don't think there's much else
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 4: to say here. His hit rates high, he doesn't walk guys,
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 4: so that's a good thing. But he does allow a
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 4: lot of home runs, although we're not in course field here,
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 4: but he allows them on the road too. His strike
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 4: up rate is also kind of low, although his strike
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio actually won't be that bad because he
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 4: actually doesn't walk like anybody, but he basically serves up
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 4: batting practice. He's just way too hittable, and his strike
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 4: out strike up for nine is like kind of okay.
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 4: And then oh, Freeland against San Francisco, who he actually
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 4: I believe he actually does do well against San Francisco, again,
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 4: proving that I'm right that they're not a good offense
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 4: if they can't even hit Freeland. They have fifty eight
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 4: at bats against him, one fifty five average, five forty
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 4: two o ps, sixteen to two strike out walk ratio.
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 3: That's ridiculous.
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 4: So Freeland actually does do well against them, but he's
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 4: still bad on the road. He's still not a good pitcher.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 4: Landham route is picture for the Giants. He's got okay
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: looking numbers here four point two two ERA, one point
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 4: two to nine whips. He's better at home four ERA
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 4: at home sub two hundred upon a batting average at home.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 4: His walks have been out of control recently though. Literally,
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 4: he's walking way too many guys. Three plus in the
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 4: last two outings, nine in the last nine innings. That's
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 4: not gonna cut it. That's not good. He can't do that.
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is still pretty low. His walk rate
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 4: is a big problem. He walks way too many guys.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 4: He does get a lot of strikeouts though, and a
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: lot of ground balls, but his stragout walk ration is
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 4: going to be ugly because of the walks. He walks
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 4: way too many guys. He's got to figure that out.
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 4: Straight out for nine pretty good. So Route does have
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 4: some talent, but the walks are a huge issue with him.
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Colorado, they're over eleven offen. They only
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 4: have three hitters have faced him. Surprisingly, they haven't faced.
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 3: Him more than that.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 4: Over eleven with six strikeouts. That's kind of insane. So,
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 4: you know, even though I was looking at this game
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 4: and I was thinking the full game over made some sense.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 4: The total's really low at seven and a half. It's
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 4: a picture from the park that seems really low for
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 4: a Rockies game. But Osbeger's kind of telling you something.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 4: I actually think you could maybe try to play the
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 4: first five under in this one. I mean, it's definitely dangerous.
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna do it. I mean, these pictures are
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: not that good, but they do seem to have the
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 4: matchup edges here. And the money is coming in on
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 4: the under fifty six percent of tickets on the over
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 4: fifty percent of the cash on the under. You're gonna
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 4: be looking at a three and a half though, with
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 4: you know, with Kyle Friedland being one of that. I
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 4: know I've played some unders with Ralph, but Kyle Freeland,
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 4: oh God, on the road playing it under with him, Yeah,
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 4: that's just it's not gonna make the cut for me.
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 4: But if I was gonna play this game, I guess
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 4: that would have to be my lean first five under,
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 4: and you're.
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 3: Gonna you'll be looking at three and a half.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 4: Oh boy, sixty nine percent of tickets, eighty nine percent
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 4: of the cash on San Francisco, they're around my won
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: twenty something. They're getting the money here. I could see
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 4: the argument for it. I mean, they're staying at home.
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 4: Roupe is overall better than Freeland. San Francisco, I guess
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 4: will give you the bullpen edge two. I guess it
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 4: makes some sense to look to San Francisco. But yeah,
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 4: I mean tough to gauge. Neither team is gonna be
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 4: that motivated. I'll think, all right, let's go to WNBA.
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 4: Let's try to get this done. Only two WNBA games.
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 4: The more interesting one is the first game, which is
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 4: not where my play is Dallas in.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 3: Indiana, Indiana. I just saw their coach there. She sucks, dude.
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 4: She's refusing to back Syvihe Cunningham, and Caitlin Clark is
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 4: refusing to as well.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 3: Sylvihe.
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 4: Cunningham's out on an island man, and even her own
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 4: coach won't back her. Indiana's coach should be fired, even
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 4: though they're having a decent season. They're twenty one to
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 4: twelve rush rules man. Indiana's coming off a huge win
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 4: over New York. They just beat New York again. Seems
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 4: like they have New York's number, like I said yesterday,
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 4: so it could be a letdown for them, saying at
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: homecome have that big win.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're really gonna overlook Dallas though. That's
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 3: the thing. This is the big thing. Oh, it's it's
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 3: Caitlin Clark against Page Becker's and as a fudd So
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 3: it's the matchup that has the last three number one
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 3: draft picks in the league all playing in this one game,
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 3: you know, so it's it's kind of a thing, and
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 3: so maybe they won't overlook Dallas. Dallas is not gonna
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 3: overlook Indiana, and Dallas is in the better conference the
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 3: West sothough they've been struggling recently though.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 4: They just want a game to break a losing streak.
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 4: Though they beat Toronto, not really much of a big deal,
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 4: but they beat them at home and barely beat them.
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 3: But it's still a.
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 4: Good win because they ended a losing streak and it's
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 4: not gonna make you overconfident beating a bad team like Toronto.
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 4: Now they're starting a road trip they have I think
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 4: they have one less day off than in Indiana does
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 4: I might be remembering that wrong, but whatever, Dallas starting
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 4: a road trip should be a decent focused spot for them.
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 4: So I will lean Dallas in this game. It's not
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 4: a strong opinion for me, but I would play Dallas.
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 4: Indiana looks public seventy two per tickets, seventy four percent
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 4: of the casual looks like they're getting some of the
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 4: money right now, up to a seven and a half
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 4: on them, I would look towards taking the points with Dallas.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 3: The over might be in play here as well.
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 4: The total is high in the one eighties, and it's
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 4: because both teams play fast and they score and they're
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 4: not good on defense, so you have that type of combination.
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 4: That's why the total has got to be that high
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 4: in the one eighties, which is pretty high. It's possible
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 4: it's not high enough. I don't quite want to do it,
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 4: although you know, Indiana kind of in a letdown spot,
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 4: possibly off of that loss. However, if both teams are
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 4: gonna focus enough on this game, that usually means the
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 4: defense will at least try to show up.
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 3: So I'd rather play the over in a.
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 4: Game where like the game is kind of more meaningless,
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. Like games like this important
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 4: games tend to trend more towards the under. But I
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 4: will say the style of matchup here does look like
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 4: an over, and the money is coming in on the over.
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 4: But I think Dallas plus the seven and a half
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 4: or whatever might be the way next. The next game
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 4: is a play for me. We have to get on
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 4: the right track with the WNBM. Dude, we have so
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 4: many losses that are bullshit in the WNBA, including last night.
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 3: It's unbelievably frustrating.
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 4: But we're gonna take when nobody's gonna like this play,
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 4: We're gonna take Seattle minus two and a half here.
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 4: If you want to lay the money line, you could
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 4: probably get like minus one forty on the money line.
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 4: You could do it that way and play it like
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: a college basketball game. But I'm just gonna lay the
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 4: points here. Nobody's gonna want to do this Seattle importantly.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 4: I mean, look at their records, right, Like, who's gonna
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 4: want to lay points with the team with the worst
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 4: record in the entire league?
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: Uh?
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 4: With Seattle here? Right, well, I'm gonna do it. Like,
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 4: first thing is the oddsmakers are not giving money away,
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. This line's already up to
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 4: three and a half. By the way, Actually, it looks
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 4: like you still get two and a half at FD.
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 4: It looks like there are some threes out there. I apologize,
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 4: like I found the number earlier this morning. FD still
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: has it at that numbers. It looks like so I
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 4: would say, get out there, and it looks like the
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 4: money is heavily agreeing with me on Seattle. But again,
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 4: if it's if it's around three, you could look at
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 4: the money line and lay like minus one fifty and
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 4: you might win the bet, and I might not. I
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 4: would be pissed if Seattle wins and they don't cover.
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 4: I would be super pissed, supersonically pissed Seattle. Anyway, the
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 4: public's gonna look at this and there's no way they're
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 4: gonna play Seattle, right Like, why would you do that?
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 4: Why would you lay points for the team with the
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 4: worst record. Well, that tells me something that the oddsmakers
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 4: are saying, Well, they're favored here.
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 3: They're favored for a reason.
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 4: The oddsmakers are telling you maybe Seattle's not quite as
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 4: bad as the record looks, even though they're one of
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 4: the worst teams. But Portland is also one of the
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 4: worst teams despite what their record looks. Now the teams
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 4: have gotten to look at Portland. They're gonna have Portland
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 4: more figured out now, you know what I mean. And
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 4: I think we have a good spot to fade Portland here.
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 4: If you see what Portland did in their last game
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 4: they played Minnesota. They had Minnesota come into Portland here
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 4: in Minnesota the best team in the league, and.
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 3: What did Portland do in that game?
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 4: They were losing that game by like thirty points in
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 4: the middle of the game, and they made one of
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 4: the most epic comebacks that you'll ever see, and they
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 4: got back to within one point with like two minutes
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 4: left in that game and then still fell short.
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 3: Like, how do you get back up off of the
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 3: mat after that?
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 4: I always say something like that, when you're a huge underdog,
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 4: you're getting blasted in the game too, and then you
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 4: make this insane comeback and you almost pull off the
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 4: upsets still after being down thirty points. Do you know
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 4: how much effort that takes? Yeah, it takes a lot.
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 4: And then to still not win the game. I would
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 4: fade them either way if they won that game or
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 4: if they lost. Either way, that was a giant effort
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 4: from them. I don't see them having it in this
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 4: game against Seattle, And they do have an ESPN game
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 4: next against Phoenix, and I know Phoenix isn't that good,
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 4: but with Plumb there a lot. I don't even know
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 4: she's gonna be healthy and playing she's I think she's
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 4: hurt right now. But still that's probably a bigger game
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 4: than the Seattle game, and it's also probably bigger because
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 4: guess who Portland played right before they had that huge
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 4: game against Minnesota.
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they beat Seattle in Portland, and in fact, they're
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 3: three to zero against Seattle this year.
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 4: They beat Seattle Wewice at home, although they beat them
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 4: by five and seven, and they beat them on the
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 4: road by five. But if you dig into those box scores,
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 4: you know, especially the most recent one, it was close.
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 4: Although I am worried that the game in Seattle, Seattle
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 4: got dominated on the rebound. They got dominated in the
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 4: rebound department. That does worry me a little bit. But
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 4: I still think the spot is horrible for Portland. I
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 4: think Seattle will finally get one here after they've seen
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 4: Portland three times now. Portland might just overlook Seattle, you
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 4: know what I mean, because they've won three games against
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 4: them already. I believe they're three to zero against them Seattle.
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 4: I like the spot they're in a lot better because
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 4: they just got to win over Chicago and that's just
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 4: gonna gonna be a confidence building win. But it also
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 4: ended a really long losing streak, So I liked that
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 4: they had a huge losing streak going on and they
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 4: finally got you know, got off the schneid or whatever.
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 4: They lost eleven games in a row, I think, and
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 4: then finally won in a return home spot.
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 3: They caught Chicago at a good time.
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 4: I told you I actually liked Seattle in that game,
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 4: and the only reason I didn't do it is because
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 4: they were in a return home so I but Chicago
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 4: was in a bad spot in that one, like a
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 4: sandwich spot. So yes, Seattle took advantage of that, but
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 4: they were still in a return home spot, which isn't
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 4: good anyway you look at it.
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 3: Though.
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 4: What I will say is it was a return It
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 4: was a game where they ended a losing streak. And
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 4: when you end a long losing streak like this, it's
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 4: finally like you get that monkey off your back. You
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 4: don't have that looming over you anymore. You can just
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 4: focus on basketball again. I think they will be focused
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 4: because their last loss was the game before that to Portland.
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 4: They know their own three against Portland. They've gotten looks
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 4: at them. They're the favorite here. They're favorite for a reason.
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 4: I think Portland might have kind of some injury in
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 4: play here as well. I'm not too worried about that,
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 4: but it looks like the money is definitely agreeing with me.
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 4: Sixty percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 4: on Seattle.
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 3: Let's get a fucking win in the WNBA again. Man.
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 4: We won with the WNBA last year. I'm pretty sure
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 4: that we're we have the same amount of wins and
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 4: losses right now. We're five hundred in the WNBA this year,
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 4: which is losing, which we were winning until I lost
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 4: the two so and last night was bullshit. Let's get
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 4: this one right. Seattle minus two and a half, Macado,
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out all right? And
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 4: then NFL preseason we got some games here. One thing
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 4: I forgot to mention yesterday, by the way, teams with
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 4: new coaches, like I did lean to Pittsburgh anyway, but
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh Vegas though they didn't win. And I liked Arizona
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 4: because Arizona already had a game under their belt, but
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 4: you had teams with new coaches which were I think
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 4: yesterday it was just Pittsburgh in Vegas though. That's one
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 4: thing that I mentioned during the Hall of Fame game.
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 4: One of the things that I kind of liked about
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 4: Arizona was teams with new coaches tend to do really
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 4: well in the first game in the preseason because they
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 4: actually show up and try to win, you know what
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 4: I mean. They want to show up, like the coach
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 4: actually takes the game more seriously because they want to
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 4: make sure that the guys know what they're running and
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 4: they actually go out there and try to do it,
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 4: whereas teams that are you know, just they already have
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 4: their coach whatever and they're going. It's more like they're
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 4: going through the motions, you know what I mean. So
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 4: somebody keep in mind there. And that worked out for Pittsburgh.
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 3: My best lean.
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 4: Yesterday, Indianapolis got fucked because Anthony Richardson. I don't know
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 4: if you saw that game. Early in the game, Colts
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 4: were driving in New England territory. Anthony Richardson had a
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 4: terrible play, terrible decision making where he was under pressure
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 4: and he should have just checked it down. He had
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 4: two different checkdown options that he easily could have gotten
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 4: the ball to just to you know, make sure that
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 4: it would have been like a small gain whatever, but
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 4: you don't die on the plane. Instead, he took off
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 4: and he ran with the ball and he did gain
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 4: some yardiers and that would be fine. If he held
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 4: onto the ball, if he slid down, whatever, But he
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 4: didn't do it. He fumbled the football over and it
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 4: was like right around the New England twenty. So he
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 4: threw away a driver where you know, Indianapolis was at
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 4: least gonna score three on that, and if they did,
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 4: you would have at least pushed your bet there with Indianapolis.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't know whatever.
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 4: This is why I don't do preseason, man, it's just
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 4: too insane. We have Denver and Atlanta as the first
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 4: game in preseason tonight, and what I talk about with
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 4: preseason is you gotta e gauge motivation and you got
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 4: to gauge the quarterback rotation, even though it's really hard
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 4: to gauge how much each quarterback is gonna play in
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 4: the game, you know what I mean. So it's difficult
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 4: to figure that out. So yeah, that's the other thing
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 4: that's kind of way like up in the air. You
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 4: have no idea who's gonna play for how long. So
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: sometimes you can look at like first halves where it's
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 4: kind of more predictable, like you know, this first quarterback
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 4: out of the gate is gonna be out there early,
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean, but even then, it's still
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 4: kind of difficult to predict, like because the coach might
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 4: want to see more of one quarterback than another if
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 4: they're trying out like this young guy. Maybe the young
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 4: guy's not their second quarterback in the depth chart, but
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 4: he wants to see what the guy has early in preseason,
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 4: you know.
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 3: Denver, Atlanta. Though Atlanta has Kevin Stefanski, he's their new coach.
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 3: He used to be the coach of the Browns.
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 4: So Atlanta does qualify as a team with a new coach,
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 4: and they tend to do well in the first game
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 4: of the preseason.
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 3: And some of it is also that the.
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 4: Opponent won't know what they're gonna run under this new scheme,
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. And maybe Denver won't take
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 4: this seriously. However, Denver might because Sean Payton. This didn't
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 4: used to be the case, but over like the last
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 4: few years, Sean Payton has been known for trying to
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 4: win preseason games. And I don't think he's gonna play
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 4: the starter, like, I don't think he's gonna put bo
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 4: Nicks out there or anything like that, but he does
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 4: try to win these preseason games, and I believe he's
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 4: won seven in a row something like that. You can
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 4: check me if I'm wrong about that, but it seems
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 4: like he's the new John Harbaugh, if you will, which
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 4: will be something to talk about with Harrorball with the
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 4: Giants tomorrow.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 3: Harbaugh won like a ton of preseason.
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 4: Games in a row when he was with the Ravens
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 4: before he eventually lost that streak I think a few
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 4: years ago to Washington, I believe is what it was.
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 4: And once he did that, he stopped really caring. But
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 4: when when you're trying to win preseason and then you're
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 4: in the middle of that streak, you keep trying to win.
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 4: So I think Sean Payton is in that mode right now.
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 4: So I don't really necessarily want to fade Sean Payton here.
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 4: But if we're gonna look at the quarterback rotation here,
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 4: which is kind of, like I said, one of the
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 4: more other important things to look at here, Denver's not
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 4: gonna be using bon Nicks in this game, especially because
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 4: you know he's coming off that injury he got in
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 4: the postseason against the Patriots in the last game, so
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 4: they're not gonna want to put him out there yet,
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. Don't get him injured whatever
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 4: the rest of their rotation. I mean, they got Jared Stidham.
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 4: I think he's better than people think, and he played
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 4: in that playoff game against the Patriots or no, the
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 4: Bonicks got injured in the previous game. It was against Buffalo, right, Yeah,
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 4: he got injured at the very end of the Buffalo game,
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 4: and then Stidham. That's right, Stidham played against the Patriots,
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 4: because I remember that was one of my plays on
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 4: the show, the injured player theory. It was a major
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 4: overreaction with New England. I believe we got that game
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 4: right with Denver covering, although they did not win.
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 3: Stidham, though, he's experienced, man.
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 4: I mean he's been around for a while, played in
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 4: that playoff game, so he's played some high pressure situations,
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 4: which this, of course is not. So I think he
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 4: qualifies as a guy that maybe you could back in
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 4: the preseason because he's got experience. And then they also
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 4: have Sam Ellinger. I don't know how to pronounce his
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 4: a linger. I don't know how to pronounce his name.
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 4: But he's been around for a while too. He's nothing special,
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 4: but he does have experience. Really, so their backups don't
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 4: look good, but they do have some experience there, and
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 4: I think they're maybe a little bit underrated as far
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 4: as Atlanta is concerned. I think Penix is actually their starter,
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 4: but they have him listed second behind Tua here, and
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 4: Penix look like he's interesting. I honestly have no idea
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 4: what Atlanta's doing here, but if either one of them
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 4: is gonna come into this game, they got experienced quarterbacks here,
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 4: I mean in Cooper Rush behind that. All these guys
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 4: have experience in the NFL at this one of the
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 4: Penix is a lot younger, but Tua is very experienced.
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 4: I think whatever they do here, you're probably gonna see
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 4: a lot of Tua in this game, I would guess.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 4: Because I still think Pennix is actually their starter. Maybe
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 4: I'm wrong about that. Maybe Tua is actually gonna be
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 4: the starter to start the season, and maybe he's not
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 4: gonna play in this game, but I don't know.
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 3: But Penix is also questionable.
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 4: Cooper Rush, I mean, he's got experience playing in the
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 4: NFL as a backup, And then I have no idea
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 4: who Jack Strand is. I think he might be some
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 4: younger guy that they might want to try to see
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 4: what he's got.
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 3: I have know who the hell is he? I have
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 3: no idea. Oh yeah, that's right. He's he's a Division
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 3: two quarterback who went to Minnesota more Head, not Morehead State,
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 3: not where what's his name?
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 4: The manimal Kenneth for Reid, not where that guy went,
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 4: but Minnesota, Morehead whatever.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 3: It's interesting, man.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, he must have been really good though in
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 4: Division two if he's gonna be in the NFL, you
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 4: know what I mean. Division two guys you don't see
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 4: that many of them make the NFL, and usually when
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 4: they do, they're pretty good.
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. So maybe Strand will be out
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 3: there and maybe he actually won't be that bad. I
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 3: don't know.
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 4: I kind of like Atlanta here, man. I think their
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 4: quarterback rotation does look better than Denvers. You're getting points
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 4: here with them. It's in Atlanta. Of course, the home
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 4: team is hosting all these games here. Atlanta's getting the money.
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 4: He's sixty one percent of tickets, eighty six percent of
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 4: the cash on them. You might be able to find
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 4: a four on them. It looks like it's mostly three
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 4: and a half. Yeah, I mean, if I was gonna
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 4: play the game, I'm not gonna do it because it's
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 4: you know, preseason is not really my thing and it's
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 4: way too unpredictable.
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 3: But yeah, taking.
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 4: Atlanta plus the points at home, with that quarterback rotation,
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 4: it looks like they're gonna be bringing out there might
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 4: be the way to go, and they might be trying
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 4: to win under their new coach.
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 3: I don't like Stefanski though, man Like I might.
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 4: Lean Atlanta in this game and in individual games and
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 4: situations or whatever, but Stefanski, Yeah, I.
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 3: Don't think he's a good coach.
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 4: I think the way that he used the quarterbacks with Cleveland,
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 4: I think it was dumb. I think it was bad,
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 4: although he's not gonna be able to be dumb this year,
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. Like, if he's gonna use
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 4: Tua or Pennex, like, I don't think there's that strong
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 4: of an argument for one over the other, to be
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 4: honest at this point. So whichever one he decides to
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 4: go with, I'm not gonna say it's a bad decision.
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, unless we go out and we see otherwise.
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, Tua was supposed to be the guy, like
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 4: when he went to Miami and whatever and he made
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 4: the playoffs, he looked good for a while, but then
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 4: it was the thing Tua can't win in cold weather
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 4: or whatever, and then he sucked really bad recently and
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 4: then yeah, wunt up with some injuries or whatever, and
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 4: now he's gone from Miami.
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 3: But maybe he'll be able to resurrect his career. I
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 3: don't know. Tampa Bay and Jets here.
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 4: These teams played during the regular season last year, which
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 4: I remember because I won a game on the Jets
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 4: plus the points here on the show during the regular
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 4: season there. In that game, it was a bad spot
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 4: for Tampa Bay, but it was one of those games.
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 4: I think the Jets made a comeback and then it
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 4: was one of those games where Tampa Bay had to
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 4: overcome a deficit late, like they did that in every
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 4: game early in the season last year.
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 3: But whatever, this.
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 4: Game is going to be in New York or in
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 4: East Rutherford, New Jersey or whatever. As far as the coaching,
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 4: the Jets, they didn't fire Aaron Glenn, so I have
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 4: no idea, So there's no coaching change here in this game.
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 4: I don't think Aaron Glenn is very good. And as
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 4: far as the Jets quarterback rotation, I don't know what.
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 3: We're doing here, man.
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 4: Gino Smith looks like he's going to be the starter
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 4: for them, so he's probably not playing in this game today.
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 4: And then they got Kid Club who's a rookie out
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 4: of Clemson who look good at times in college. I
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 4: have no idea what they're gonna get out of him.
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 4: Brady Cook, who they drafted I think the previous year
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 4: out of Missouri. He did not look particularly good last year.
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 4: He's got some NFL experience now though. And then they
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 4: also have Bailey Zappi, who not Zebie Matthews. Bailey Zappi
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 4: who was on the Patriots for a while. And then
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know where he was last year, but he's been.
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 4: He's gonna be a career backup in the NFL, but
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 4: he does have some experience playing in the NFL. I
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 4: don't like this quarterback room much, so it's really not
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 4: that experience. And if Gino is not gonna play in
• 2:00:36
  Speaker 4: this game, even though I don't think Gino Smith is
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 4: that good either, So sorry, but I don't know, man,
• 2:00:41
  Speaker 4: that quarterback room doesn't look that good.
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. What do they have to offer though?
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 4: I mean, Baker Mayfield's not gonna play here. He's gonna
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 4: be their starter. Their Their depth chart doesn't look good
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 4: to me either. Jake Browning is on their team now.
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 4: He was the backup for Cincinnati behind Joe Borrow for
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 4: a while and he was not cutting it, so they
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 4: cut him apparently, and I don't expect much, remember though,
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 4: at least he does have experience playing in the NFL.
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 3: Then they got Connor Bazlak. No clue.
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 4: I think he might have played in some preseason games
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 4: last year or something. And then they have Jalen Daniels,
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 4: who's gonna get sued by Jayden Daniels.
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 3: I made that joke on that Twitter.
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 4: If you guys haven't heard Jayden Daniels on Washington is
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 4: it's so stupid, dude.
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 3: He's trying to get LSU. He's like trying to take
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 3: legal action to get LSU to.
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 4: No longer use his name because they let somebody take
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 4: his number number five. It's like, fuck you, dude, Like
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 4: why are you that high and mighty? Like you've done nothing, bro,
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 4: Like Daniels, he won some like shitty Bowl with LSU.
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 4: Who gives a fuck whatever bowl? It was no championship
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 4: stuff going on there.
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 3: He's done basically nothing in the NFL.
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 4: I mean, he had a good rookie year, made the
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 4: conference championship. I said they overperformed that year, and I
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 4: gave you guys, Washington under. Their team total last year
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 4: is one of my best team totals last year, and
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 4: that was an easy win, although it was because Jayden
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 4: Daniels got hurt, but even if he didn't, I still
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 4: think they might have gone under. I don't think I
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 4: think Jadan Daniels it was just the league didn't know
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 4: what to expect on him in the first season. I
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 4: honestly don't think he's that good. I think he's the
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 4: next RG three, And he had that weird injury at
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 4: the very same spot on the same field that RG
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 4: three did against the same team against Seattle, which is
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 4: very eerie. Although he's back this year where RG three's
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 4: career was pretty much over anyway, Jalen Daniels is on
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay out of Kansas. Don't know what to expect
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 4: out of him either. Jayden Daniels might try to sue
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 4: him for having a way too similar a name to him.
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 3: I have no idea. Jalen Daniels doesn't wear his number though,
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 3: but he's also on a different team. I don't know. Yeah,
• 2:02:50
  Speaker 3: I don't have a good read on this game.
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 4: The Jets are favored by a ridiculous amount here minus
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 4: six and a half. I mean, you know, the public,
• 2:02:57
  Speaker 4: they're obviously they're not gonna lay points with the Jets.
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 4: I mean, how could you, like, how could the Jets
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 4: be favored by six and a half against Sampa Bay? Right,
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 4: Like that's what they're gonna be thinking in their mind.
• 2:03:07
  Speaker 4: Does that mean Gino Smith is actually gonna Maybe it does,
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 4: actually mean Gino Smith might actually.
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 3: Play, Like, why the hell are they favored by this much?
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 4: I have no idea other than you know, Tampa might
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 4: not be playing their starters, but that's pretty common in preseason,
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 4: Like you kind of just don't play any of your
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 4: starters in the first preseason game.
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 3: I have no idea, dude.
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is a very public underdog, eighty one percent
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 4: of tickets, seventy four percent of the cash on them.
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 3: I lean towards the Jets, but that's what I said yesterday.
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 4: It was like, you know, Cincinnati had a similar line
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 4: on their game, and Tennessee also did, and I think
• 2:03:40
  Speaker 4: they both failed to cover because the Lion was just
• 2:03:42
  Speaker 4: too big. Tennessee came in right around the number, and
• 2:03:45
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati won and didn't cover.
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 3: Those are both really low scoring games.
• 2:03:48
  Speaker 4: So, like I said, I thought that those teams would
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 4: win and I kind of lead to their way, But
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 4: the Lion was just out of control.
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 3: The line was just way too high.
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 4: So like, I don't think I could lay six and
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 4: a half of the Jets, but I think they will
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 4: win this game, probably based on the way the market looks.
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, it's tough to gauge in, and
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 4: that one the ones yesterday I had reasons why, like
• 2:04:10
  Speaker 4: the quarterback situation look better for those teams too. I
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 4: don't have a great reason why for the Jets unless
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 4: if Gino Smith is playing, even though I don't think
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 4: he's that good, I would change my tune actually because
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 4: he has at least experienced.
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 3: And maybe that is what's going on there. I have
• 2:04:24
  Speaker 3: no idea.
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 4: By the way, I will point out again, these totals
• 2:04:27
  Speaker 4: are always really low in the first preseason games because
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 4: the games just tend to be lower scoring because teams
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 4: just don't go all out offensively a lot of times.
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 4: A lot of teams that know what they're doing already.
• 2:04:39
  Speaker 4: They don't want to show anything in preseasons, so they
• 2:04:42
  Speaker 4: go vanilla and the team.
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 3: The games are gonna be higher scoring of the games
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 3: where you expect, like the coaches to be trying some
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 3: crazy things and wanting to see what they're gonna get
• 2:04:52
  Speaker 3: out of some of their more talented young offensive players.
• 2:04:54
  Speaker 4: So those are the types of games that are gonna
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 4: go over more. So we'll see about that. But yeah,
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 4: we see a lot of low scoring games, so recently,
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 4: you've seen some higher scoring games in these first preseason games.
• 2:05:07
  Speaker 4: I didn't say it was actually a bet for me. No, wait,
• 2:05:12
  Speaker 4: they took a touchdown away from the Colts. I have
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 4: no idea. I know, I told you. I just said
• 2:05:16
  Speaker 4: Anthony Richardson fumbled, made a stupid decision. Could have just
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 4: checked down and he ran and fumbled in New England
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 4: territory and they would have scored on that drive if
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 4: he didn't do that. So I'm not I don't think
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 4: the Colts are really the wrong side there. Preseason is
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 4: just bad, dude. Most of my opinions were correct yesterday,
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 4: for what that's worth. I said I liked Pittsburgh.
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 3: I said I liked.
• 2:05:38
  Speaker 4: Arizona and well, I mean it was those two, I guess,
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 4: and then I did say I liked Cincinnati and Tennessee
• 2:05:45
  Speaker 4: and they did both win, but they didn't cover. But
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 4: I said that the line was too high on both
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 4: of them, so I don't I don't know. The Colts
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 4: were the right side, yeah, I mean the market the
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 4: market Reid said they were the right side, and New
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 4: England they were using Tommy DeVito, like, I mean, come on, man,
• 2:06:03
  Speaker 4: Miami Washington's the last game. I don't want to be
• 2:06:05
  Speaker 4: reminded of the Madrid game last year where I gave
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 4: out What did I give out? I think I gave
• 2:06:11
  Speaker 4: up Washington plus two and a half.
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 3: In that game.
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 4: It was the second at Jayden Daniels injured player theory
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 4: spot or something, So I gave up Washington in that game,
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 4: and they were.
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 3: In that game the whole way should have won, and.
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 4: I think Miami kicked a game tying field goal at
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 4: the end of regulation and then Washington turned it over
• 2:06:29
  Speaker 4: and overtime with Marcus Marioto. The Mariota is definitely a
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 4: capable QB, which I will mention in a minute because
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 4: he's still there. And then Miami wound up winning an
• 2:06:37
  Speaker 4: overtime in that Madrid game, and we had Washington plus
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 4: two and a half and they lost by three. And
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 4: I think there might have been thre's out there before
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 4: I got to the number. That game really really irritated me.
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 4: Washington should have won the game. I still think about it.
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 4: That was a play that we lost on the show here.
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 4: I don't think that game matters as far as this
• 2:06:54
  Speaker 4: is concerned. They're like, I don't think it's gonna be
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 4: a revenge spot for Washington. Really, Like, I don't think
• 2:06:58
  Speaker 4: they're gonna remember that game back. Maybe they will remember
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 4: that game against the Miami. I don't know, man, this
• 2:07:05
  Speaker 4: game is in Landover. Miami's favored in this game. And
• 2:07:08
  Speaker 4: of course Jayden Daniels is not gonna play. He's he's
• 2:07:11
  Speaker 4: gonna be fine, like he's he's gonna be ready to
• 2:07:13
  Speaker 4: go to start the season. But obviously they don't want
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 4: to get him injured again, and he seems very injury prone.
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 4: So you're gonna get Marcus Mariota, which I think is
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 4: a good thing.
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, Mariota is a very experienced NFL quarterback.
• 2:07:24
  Speaker 4: But they're gonna probably turn it over to Colia Kamanis,
• 2:07:28
  Speaker 4: whoever the hell that is.
• 2:07:29
  Speaker 3: I think was he on the Chiefs last year.
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 4: I want to say, let me say, maybe I'm wrong,
• 2:07:34
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm thinking of another guy with an unpronounceable name.
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 3: Maybe no, I guess he's new. What the hell am
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 3: I thinking of that?
• 2:07:41
  Speaker 5: Oh?
• 2:07:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah, he's out of Rutgers. Yes, he's a rookie out
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 4: of Rutgers. So they're probably gonna get him in the
• 2:07:46
  Speaker 4: mix to see what he can do. And then Sam Hartman,
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 4: who has been in the league for a while, is
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 4: basically a career backup. So Washington has a bunch of
• 2:07:53
  Speaker 4: guys there a lot of experience with Mariota. So if
• 2:07:56
  Speaker 4: he's gonna play a decent amount of the game, I
• 2:07:58
  Speaker 4: think that's a good thing. Is gonna be very unpredictable,
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 4: and I think they will use him because they drafted
• 2:08:05
  Speaker 4: him and they want to see what he has, so
• 2:08:07
  Speaker 4: they'll probably have him out there for quite a bit
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 4: in the second half as well.
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 3: Miami.
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 4: I don't know what they're gonna be doing. Man, Miami,
• 2:08:14
  Speaker 4: they don't have Tua anymore, and I think Malik Willis
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 4: will be their starter, and everybody's making fun of that.
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 4: I don't think that's a bad thing though, Like I
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 4: like Willis. Like some of those games last year, he
• 2:08:23
  Speaker 4: looked really good, and he looked good when.
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 3: He backed like he was backing up about Jordan Love.
• 2:08:27
  Speaker 3: He looked good. He's a dual threat quarterback.
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I think people are underrating Malik Willis,
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 4: but I don't think you're gonna see him in this game.
• 2:08:35
  Speaker 3: So it's gonna be all quinn ewers. Who pitched, who pitched.
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 4: I'm still in baseball, but he played last year a
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 4: bit from Miami because he was their draft pick out
• 2:08:43
  Speaker 4: of Texas last year, so he played a little bit.
• 2:08:45
  Speaker 4: But he's still pretty inexperienced. And I don't even know
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 4: who Cam Miller is. They're only carrying three qbs. I
• 2:08:52
  Speaker 4: guess I think he's a rookie out of it looks
• 2:08:54
  Speaker 4: like he's a rookie out of North Dakota State, who
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 4: are now going to be in UH Division one FBS
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 4: and no longer FCS Division one. So North Dakota State
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 4: moved up this year to where are they the Mountain West.
• 2:09:07
  Speaker 3: I'll talk about that when I get to my season.
• 2:09:09
  Speaker 4: Preview for college football, which will be coming out soon,
• 2:09:12
  Speaker 4: so Miller will probably get in the mix here because
• 2:09:15
  Speaker 4: they only have two quarterbacks here that'll be in play today,
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 4: so they'll probably rotate between the two of them. Well,
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 4: it'll be Ers first out probably, and then Miller will
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 4: probably be in in.
• 2:09:24
  Speaker 3: The second half. I don't know if that's a good thing.
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 4: Like, I don't know if that justifies Miami being minus
• 2:09:30
  Speaker 4: three and a half. Although Miami does have a new
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 4: coach though, right they I think they fall into that
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 4: scenario and Washington looks public, so the public still wants
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 4: nothing to do with Miami, even though I think they were.
• 2:09:42
  Speaker 3: The public was on Miami in.
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 4: That Madrid game though, because they didn't want Washington in
• 2:09:47
  Speaker 4: the injured player spot and whatever. Washington has got eighty
• 2:09:50
  Speaker 4: one percent of tickets, eighty two percent of the cash
• 2:09:52
  Speaker 4: on them, though. I think people are just such idiots.
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 4: I think they probably think, oh, Jadon Daniels is back. No,
• 2:09:58
  Speaker 4: he's not playing in this game. That's why Miami he's
• 2:10:00
  Speaker 4: a three and a half point favorite. And also I'm
• 2:10:02
  Speaker 4: pretty yea, I'm pretty sure Miami is they have a
• 2:10:05
  Speaker 4: new coach because they fired McDaniel, right like, I think
• 2:10:08
  Speaker 4: that was going into this year. So I'm pretty sure
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 4: Miami has a new coach, so they might be trying
• 2:10:13
  Speaker 4: in this game. Whereas Washington dan Quinn, he's kind of
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 4: known for not trying in preseason, so those things do
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 4: indicate more towards Miami. I don't think I want to
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 4: lay the points at Miami, though I don't like their
• 2:10:26
  Speaker 4: quarterback rotation. Washington has the better quarterback rotation, so that's
• 2:10:31
  Speaker 4: the thing. You have Miami with the worst quarterback rotation.
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 4: But anything could really happen in this game, and Miami
• 2:10:37
  Speaker 4: might be the team it's trying harder. So it's a
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 4: very very difficult handicap in this one. Definitely staying away
• 2:10:43
  Speaker 4: from that. I mean, I don't even know. Man, out
• 2:10:46
  Speaker 4: of these three games, the best angle is probably Atlanta
• 2:10:51
  Speaker 4: plus the points, but I don't I really don't like
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 4: any of these games. So yeah, I mean, even if
• 2:10:56
  Speaker 4: I was like a preseason better I'm I would be.
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 3: I think I would be staying away from this shit.
• 2:11:02
  Speaker 3: I don't know, just enjoy the games, I guess. So
• 2:11:04
  Speaker 3: that's gonna do it. Long show.
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 4: Thanks to football and me over analyzing baseball.
• 2:11:10
  Speaker 3: We got two baseball plays.
• 2:11:12
  Speaker 4: First five under Miami, Cincinnati let's get it done.
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 3: Let's have good pitching going on there, and we have.
• 2:11:18
  Speaker 4: A first five money line Kansas City Royals. It's a
• 2:11:23
  Speaker 4: situational play, but it is also the pitching matchup I
• 2:11:25
  Speaker 4: think is in favor of them, So let's get that
• 2:11:27
  Speaker 4: one as well.
• 2:11:28
  Speaker 3: WNBA real ugly.
• 2:11:30
  Speaker 4: We're gonna lay the two and a half with the
• 2:11:31
  Speaker 4: Seattle Storm or whatever the hell they're called. Let's get
• 2:11:35
  Speaker 4: it done. Let's have a winning day two and one.
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 4: I'd be satisfied. We've been treading water for a while now, man,
• 2:11:42
  Speaker 4: and it's not fun. Learn it tone on Twitter, Learn
• 2:11:45
  Speaker 4: it to one on Instagram. Subscribe to the channel here. You'll
• 2:11:49
  Speaker 4: get notified when I do my football preview stuff, which
• 2:11:52
  Speaker 4: I know I already did some menavel stuff, but I'll
• 2:11:53
  Speaker 4: probably be doing more, So be on the lookout for that.
• 2:11:57
  Speaker 3: Patroon dot com slash learn it toe if you want
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 3: to support me that way.
• 2:12:01
  Speaker 4: I think maybe these videos get kind of buried if
• 2:12:04
  Speaker 4: you say that place or say any of these platforms,
• 2:12:07
  Speaker 4: so maybe I should stop doing that. We do have
• 2:12:09
  Speaker 4: the Loser Cast. I can say that every Tuesday night.
• 2:12:12
  Speaker 4: You can check that out The Giants g Spot podcast.
• 2:12:14
  Speaker 4: You check that out as well. I'm all over the
• 2:12:16
  Speaker 4: place to say, covered in Youke is my yuke channel
• 2:12:19
  Speaker 4: on here on this platform, let's say as you can
• 2:12:21
  Speaker 4: find that there, and I think that's it.
• 2:12:24
  Speaker 3: Go to my link dream man.
• 2:12:26
  Speaker 4: It's in the show notes here and it's on my
• 2:12:28
  Speaker 4: two am I allowed to say Twitter even I have
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 4: no idea it's on my Yeah, it's on there, but
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 4: it's in the show notes. So my link tree has
• 2:12:35
  Speaker 4: all the links. I think it's up to date.
• 2:12:37
  Speaker 3: That's gonna do it. Long show today. Feeling tired, Let's
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 3: get some lunch.
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 1: Piece.
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 2: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone, let's
• 2:12:52
  Speaker 2: somebody and so let somebody know.
• 2:12:56
  Speaker 1: You do not have to lose this round Longe.
• 2:13:05
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on nothing nice not now hold on,
• 2:13:15
  Speaker 2: hold on, let me fall. You are that bad luck
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 2: by time, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 2:13:33
  Speaker 2: hold on.
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 5: Stay with me, now, hold on, hold on, you're still here.
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 2: Another man