Latest / The Common Sense Revolution Podcast / Ep 2: Can the Conservatives replace Reform as the angry party... and should they even try?
Transcript
- Gavin Megaw: On Friday afternoon in Birmingham, Nigel Farage signed an agreement with a French party that doesn't govern France to stop the boats forever. On Saturday morning, masked men and balaclavas linked arms across a road in Dover. On Sunday night, hundreds more clashed with police in Portsmouth after a single dinghy carrying 140 people was brought ashore. And on that same Sunday in Germany, a far right party took forty-four percent of the vote in a state election while the centre right was cut in half. Underneath all of this is a fact that no one seems to believe that boat numbers are actually down. This week we're going to talk about why this is a problem for the Conservative Party and what they should do about it. Welcome to the Common Sense Revolution Podcast, episode two. If you missed episode one, the short version is very simple. All three of us used to work in Conservative Central Office in the Smith Square years. They weren't that successful, but we're back for more to talking about the party now. And we're going to explore whether the Conservative Party is repairing or falling apart every week. A few of you told us after episode one that you wanted to know more about who we actually are and what our credentials are. That's fair enough. So Patrick, let's start with you. Who the hell are you? Patrick: Thank you Gavin. 25, 30 years ago I was a researcher in the Conservative Research Department. I had the transport desk under my remit, which means that as a result of the fuel protests... I was the only researcher who delivered a poll lead for the Conservatives. That faded very Peter: Ha ha. Patrick: quickly. In 2001 I left to become a journalist, which I have been for 25 years, most of it for the Times. I was the diary editor for 12 years. I wrote the political sketch for four. I'm now freelance, still do stuff occasionally for the Times, but also I write sketches for the Telegraph and bits and pieces for the Observer. And I quite like being regarded by one as a PINCO and the other as an Ardent Thatcherite. Gavin Megaw: Patrick, happy birthday for this week. You were fifty. Peter: Yes. Patrick: 50, yeah 50 up, I remark my guard, take the applause and it's just slip next ball. Gavin Megaw: Still young and irrelevant, Patrick. Don't let that drop. Peter, who the hell are you? Peter: well, I'm a half French, Roman Catholic, vegetarian environmentalist Tory. So and you don't Gavin Megaw: Ha ha ha. Peter: get that many of those. there was a colleague of ours where we were all working at Conservative Central Office who once when he heard about the vegetarian bit, he said, Peter, is is there anything about you, anything at all, that isn't in some way weird? Patrick: Thank Peter: And at the time I thought that was, you know, a little bit rude. but on reflection, I had to concede that he had a point. I do do some useful things as well. I'm a speech writer, a think tanker, I write articles for Conhome and Unheard. I was a sort of founding employee of Unheard. so yes, I I'm kind of of the opinion that policy-wise, our think tanks and our politicians need to think a lot bigger. And that speech writing-wise, our politicians need to start giving proper speeches again. I think they are important. I think that reducing everything to sound bites and makes politics smaller at a time when our problems are a lot bigger. Patrick: Gavin, you're the big success of the trio. Despite the disadvantages of Gavin Megaw: I thought far from it. If I'm the i Peter: Ha ha. Patrick: being Ginger. Gavin Megaw: if if I'm the success, we're in real trouble. So I'm the comms guy, I'm the mere comms guy. I used to work with these guys in central office, trying to make sure that the Conservative Party got on the front pages for less negative news, which was pretty hard back in those days. But I worked from ninety seven, ninety-eight onwards for Five, six years for the Conservative Party, held a post of roles in Conservative Central Office on the COM side, including rapid rebuttal and also as a lobby spokesman for a while, which was great. And I learned so much. There were the best days of your life professionally, because you were given so much authority to get on with stuff because there was no one else to do it in opposition. And it really was the making of many of us, I think. I went from there into comms roles in agencies, but also at one stage in football. and my last role was I was running a big communications agency globally, which was great fun. I was there for 15 years. I'm now doing my own thing, helping businesses and individuals understand how they can get their strategies right, but also giving them some advice on how they can communicate more effectively. I've developed a whole training module for senior leaders on how they can actually cut through because my theory is that. People don't actually listen to the vast majority of things that are said. And that's very relevant for what we'll be talking about over the coming weeks and months, particularly in politics and chemie. But more of that later. reform held a conference last week at the NEC in Birmingham. On the eve of it, two of Farage's most senior aides, James Orr and Dan Duke, stood down over allegations from a Channel 4 undercover investigation. That they'd breached the nation rules by having polling paid for by an overseas entity. Now, three parties have called for police action. We've seen some headlines in the last 24 hours in regard to that. Farage says reform has broken no laws, and the standards inquiry into his own finances is running again. And then on Friday, Farage stood on the stage with Jordan Bardella, president of France's national rally, Marine Le Pen. And he signed a memorandum of understanding to stop the boats forever. And I have to say, I was really struck by this as a political move. I thought it was there was a bit of genius to it, really. Farage called it a genuine new entente cordiale. So we want to get into reform and what this all means for the Conservative Party. but there's a few different things I think we need to just flag up front, because they often get mixed up. Why are so many people angry enough to vote for reform, given the headlines about them? And Second, if reform itself is actually any good turning that anger into votes, Peter, what about you? Why don't you start us with your general view? Peter: Well, I think Reform UK exists for the same reason that populism on the European continent exists. just multiple elite failure on several fronts, economic, political, cultural, you name it, they are visibly losing control. they are visibly making us more vulnerable to hostile nations around the world. People can see border control breaking down, all sorts of other things breaking down, institutional failure. Of course you're gonna get a protest movement, especially in an age when media is is decentralized and sort of challenger movements can get their message out in a way that they couldn't before. So yes, it's It's inevitable that reform is a thing. Are they good at what they're doing? Well, compared to a lot of other countries, the big difference between reform and basically the populist movements across Europe is that reform's voter base is old. You know, we'll we'll probably mention the the German far right victory in One of the German regents the last week, people did a breakdown of the votes there. And the vote for this AFD party is high across the age group. It's actually lowest amongst the pensioners. whereas reforms vote is very much concentrated amongst the older age groups and long term. if we are allowed to talk about the long term, their voter base is dying out. Same as the Conservative Party. That's that's that's a context that doesn't get nearly enough attention. Gavin Megaw: Can I just hold you to that thought, Peter? Because I was listening to the AFD's deputy leader talking after their success in that election earlier this week. And they were saying that they were successful because the traditional conservative parties weren't listening to their electorate. And but what I'm finding interesting, what you just said, there's different parts of the electorate in different places, it's not all the same. Because Germany's probably driven by the historic legacy aspects there of people not wanting to be seen to be close to the far right for what happened, you know, away Peter: Yes. Gavin Megaw: in the back in the day. But here, as you said, reform is an older voter base. is this the biggest problem for Farage? Is he just going to run out of time? Peter: Yeah, I think I think he is running out of time personally. We've seen a big fall in his what appears to be his energy levels, his commitment levels. he will be, I think it's sixty-seven at the next election. and certainly of retirement age. And if the next election is after a full term, that is, we don't get an early one. By the end of the first term of a Potential reform government is gonna be sort of getting getting close to 70. And you know, you have to think, this this doesn't look like a dynamic party at the moment. It strikes me as stuck. It's playing the same old records over and over again. And yes, it's been successful for a while, but are people beginning just you know, leaving aside the the scandals on funding or what have you? are people starting to get just a little bit bored of it? Gavin Megaw: So Patrick, we watched the conference last week, or we probably didn't watch it in detail, but we certainly saw the headlines. but I was struck by that that that signing off the agreement with Bardella on stage. I thought that was a very interesting move. What I mean, you've watched a lot of stunts, often do sketches on them at conferences. Was that a stunt or was it a strategic move of genius? Patrick: I think it's a genuine crowd pleasing strategic move. I'd just quickly say to Peter, I agree that Farage is looking tired. Those words remember from the episode of Doctor Who that can kill a political career. But 67 Peter: Yes. Patrick: is still 13 years younger than Donald Trump. So I suppose age doesn't necessarily wither. On the Bardella thing, the thing that was most interesting to me was the response in France because Bardella said he will take back all the asylum seekers trying to get to Britain. I'm not quite sure what he said he was going to do with them. But the centrists in France were saying, how this reveals a plot, he wants to take back migrants, as if they thought that was a really bad thing. And one of problems that we have had is that France is a safe country. People are travelling, it's quite a large safe country, travelling through it to come to us. And France has been very happy for that to happen. I thought this was quite revealing because it probably explains why we've not had much joy over the years in getting France to stop the migrants coming here because they are very glad to move them on. And I think Faraj needs to point out, look, this shows why we're not getting anywhere. I think the bar della thing was a decent move. I thought the most interesting thing actually was some of the stuff that Richard Tice was saying about taxation and the delivery tax. I really liked the idea of that. You see how many mopeds zipping around, especially in London, delivering two pound pastries to people door to door. I quite like to see that clamp down on and make people go and support their high street. But that's a separate issue. all of which to say is some interesting ideas were actually being shared at the reform conference, but it was all overshadowed by the finances, by the sting. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. But I I'm fascinated by the political play that reform make around immigration. Because we've seen immigration falling under labor. We've seen the boats arrivals going down for a number of reasons. and yet reforms seem to be making more and more of this. They're spending a fortune on digital advertising. I declare it interest here because I've started to monitor their digital expenditure and it's far greater than anyone else out there. So they're doing that. They're really pushing hard into this issue. And to Peter's point, they have an older demographic set of backers, but I think this issue also skews across a a a bigger group. it it does go younger as well, actually, in some parts of our communities. So I'm interested in the play and why they've done this and how they're going to push it. And I'm actually also interested in whether it's cutting through more than the scandal. Around our conference because people like us all watch it and go, That's a disgrace. They're in trouble. But what will play most? What will be remembered in a couple of months' time, Peter? Peter: Well, it all depends what else comes out now and also what happens with the commons investigations, the standards investigations. if the result of that is sufficiently damning that there has to be another by election in Clacton, that will get awkward. but at this point I'm not quite sure whether That's going to further undermine Farage, or whether it's going to look like the the powers that be, the establishments, are just using every trick in their i in their book to persecute him, to harass him. And there is a genuine risk that at some point there'll be a backlash against. all of this, and people will start pointing out to the main parties, the mainstream parties, well, your finances are all a bit dodgy as well. Why are all your funders in the House of Lords, etc., etc.? and I can see at least a minority, the reform-supporting minority, actually sort of doubling down on their support for Farage because they're just fed up with. this element being sort of you know, this horse being flogged constantly. Patrick: if they sort of thrive on victimhood, that means creating and promoting a sense that there are people out to get them, be that migrants, be that the establishment, they want to be seen as the ones that are always getting the rough deal. And you know, in many ways, there's merit to that. But I'm interested to see how this develops, though, with the potential succession, because we've seen a split over the migrant issue and particularly with the protests. by the Balaclava wearers in Portsmouth between Zia Yousuf and Richard Tice. And, Kemi Badenock referred to them as thugs and Yousuf really went for her, not realising that Richard Tice had called them thugs too. Gavin Megaw: I I I th I think I'd like to come back to that for sure. But just before we do though, are we all agreed then that we're seeing so Farage is being seen as more and more unpopular in the polling. So there is a rump around him. It's kind of like a MAGA esque rump around Donald Trump, in effect, where he there's nothing he can do which is going to upset them or turn them away from being Farage and Reform backers. And reformers slightly more popular than Farage at the minute. But You know, it's it's more it's more closely aligned than most of the parties at present. so so there's a reality off that. and they're looking for a moment then to get over the line with additional voters, where as Peter says, they can look like they're being picked on, look like they have got something different to everyone else. But I think last week was probably damaging for them with the middle grind, the people they're trying to grab Peter: Yes. Gavin Megaw: hold of. and I think that's interesting, which is why they're doubling down, in my view, on. the boats stuff. both of you this week have written about C.A.usiv. Patrick, you wrote for a piece for The Observer. Peter, you wrote a piece for Unheard on him. So I'd like to get into that. But before we do, are we also aligned that the best play the conservatives have to beat reform is to in effect take out Nigel Farage politically. Because Nigel Farage is the difference. Is that fair or am I overreading that? Peter: I I don't think there's anything they can do to take him out. they've just got to let you know the scandals take their course, if they if there is more to be had there, and you know, and and let reform do its own thing and cannibalize its its leaders as it as it tends to do. or at least, you know, s you know, factionalism. just just the constant drip drip drip of party management issues. And it may be that he decides that he's had enough. He's done it in the past with UKIP, with the Brexit party. you know, it can be done again. And I'd say the the Conservatives just let it happen. it's the famous quote that when you're of our military strategists is when your enemy is making a mistake, don't interrupt him. Gavin Megaw: Patrick, what do you think of that? Patrick: Well, I think you're right that there is a rump that they are very pro-Faraj and they will probably be more pro-Faraj in Arda the more he is attacked, but I don't think they will increase in number. But ultimately, if reformer to move from being a protest organisation into a potential... government in waiting and you know the opinion polls show that they are a government in waiting then they will be judged on what they actually do and that's more than Farage and I think we're going to have a greater focus on their councillors over the next year they've done so well in the local elections there is going to be a because they are going to need 600 candidates to stand for parliament they're going to need 300 of them potentially to win so I think there will be a look at what they actually do and so far there's not been sort of much example of actual achievement some have had to put up taxes despite promising that they wouldn't because they found that actually running things is harder than just saying I disagree and you may also find more scandals coming out about them as they do about every party so I think the next year assuming we have a year or more for the election is going to be based on looking at more than just Farage but he definitely as long as he's there he brings a big rump I just don't think it's a rump that wins an election on its own Gavin Megaw: Yeah, I don't disagree with that, but I disagree with the fact that people will look at the evidence around councils and things like that. Because I don't think that's the way politics is these days. It's more personality based. And I think Farage is far ahead of others on that front. And that's the danger for the other parties. But it's also the danger for reform if Farage gives up or walks away or is forced to walk away. because it's a bit of a mess behind him. There's never been anyone who's successfully followed Farage in any of his parties so far. and he's usually fallen out with him and left chaos. So let's get on to that in terms of see Yusuf. Patrick you wrote a piece for observ the observer and what did you find when you did that? And then we'll come on to Peter and his piece for Unheard. Patrick: Zia Youssef is a man with undoubted qualities and also very big failings. He is immensely hardworking, he grips a brief, he is an extremely good performer on the media. He's a good public speaker. I was looking at his first appearance in 2024 during the general election campaign when he spoke at a rally and it was a most assured piece of oratory. But it was also much more optimistic. He was speaking about why do migrants want to come here? It's because they want to. What draws them is the British values and that's who's speaking about his parents who came from Sri Lanka. And it was saying, you know, how Britishness is what is going to sort of make a success of everything. That's now moved on to actually just wanting to bash everyone. who wants to come here because they're migrants. And his flaws, he is immensely thin-skinned, he falls out with people even more than Faraj does. Rupert Lowe left to form his own party, as did Ben Habib, partly because they fell out with him. Tim Montgomery recently has had a falling out with him. He's picked fights with Robert Jenrick. He loves seeing his, he loves the clicks, the attention on social media. And I think he's realised that negativity drives engagement. And you know that's fine, that gets you 20 % perhaps, but I think it also really puts off a lot of other people. But you know there was every chance if Faraj fell under the bus that Zia Youssef would be the next leader. Peter: Yes, well I high we've we've got relatively limited polling on on what reform members who who they'd like most like to to replace Farage. but there was a Lord Ashcroft poll back in June, I think, and Yusuf was first, Tice was just behind him, and then way back was Lee Anderson. Followed by Robert Jenrich in a very distant fourth place. Since then, I'd say that the momentum is all behind Zia Yusuf. He is certainly the most dynamic of all the main reform politicians, including and that includes Farage. and I think though he knows how to dial it up. And he really does. he's a genuine political talent in that respect. He doesn't know how to dial it down, and that could still be his undoing. Patrick: And this is then the challenge for the Conservatives, and of course this is a podcast, we should be looking at them as much or more than reform, that there's a leader in Kimmy Badenock who can be a bit of a pugilist herself who likes going for the jugular, and many find that attractive and many have said she needs to dial it down a bit. But you know, I wonder whether the big difference between the parties, those two parties, is that the Tories actually have to be a bit less shouty, a bit more sort of ideas-focused, a bit more positive. and just try and present reform as you're constantly carping, where are your ideas? Gavin Megaw: Yeah, and whether they're credible or not. I'm sort of I'm really torn on all of this. I don't know whether I've got my own bias to think this is all about Farage or whether this is actually a European style movement on the right, which has come up and is more more than Farage. And but my instinct is you Farage is the key, and whether it's Yusuf or anyone else, they're just not going to get the same sort of numbers. And that's the opportunity for the Conservatives. But to your point, we have to face the reality that at present Farage is leading reforms. So what does Kemi Baynock do? What does the Conservative Party do? And you said they're Patrick, they should be left pugalistic, but Kemi is like that. I mean, I listened to her this morning on the Today programme doing an interview with Emma Barnett on cutting welfare to pay for defense. And I don't think many people will have made it through the interview. It was just the two of them having a battle over who was interrupting whoever. And it was terrible in that sense. So What Kemi Badenok was saying seemed sensible. It seemed well tested, but I'm not sure people will have got that far. so it's good to have got the eight tenth slot during this week to talk about that following her PMQ's stuff yesterday, but people won't have listened. And if no one's listening to anyone, that's very dangerous because it allows other personalities to come in and seize the moment. So how how do the Conservatives beat reform, Peter? Peter: Well, I think they do need to appear to be the party of reason. there was some polling done this week where you had a word cloud for each of the party leaders. you will know, Gavin, that that is you have a focus group, you ask people what sort of qualities do they associate with each leader. And then you create a sort of word cloud graphic in which the most commonly used words appear most centrally and in the biggest typeface. And for for Kemi Badenock, it was actually sensible. And I would rarely lean into that. but she needs to express it in a way that is reasonable and persuasive, and almost enticing. As well as sometimes, you know, there are certain set piece occasions where she should actually, you know, let rip, you know, like at PMQs. But you know, she should also get Gavin Megaw: Yeah. Peter: better at the the sofa politics of things. And so I think that's the next thing for her to concentrate on. And one thing you can say about her is that she does get better at things, and that when a weakness is flagged up, she can address it and that's quite rare for a politician. Farage never changes. She does. She's capable of development and evolution and that's that's a an important quality in a politician. Patrick: I also find Kemi quite likeable, although she didn't send me a birthday text message like one member of her shadow cabinet, so he is my favourite. Peter: Dis disgraceful Shameful. Gavin Megaw: Ha ha ha ha. Patrick: But no, think we must remember that we're talking lot about reform, that the Labour are the ones in government to reform have eight MPs and the Tory focus has primarily to be on Labour. They've got to hold reform off because... but the focus is on Burnham and we have had a big misstep by him this week at PMQs in what was a very nice rhetorical line but could be disastrous saying that national security isn't as important as social security and I think as they prepare for the party conference yes there must be some attack lines on reform and also to look as you say responsible compared to reform but they've got to remember that there is a prime minister there that she's got to take on. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, and her f and her polling went up in the last week, Kemi. Her personal rating went up, which is very unusual. Peter: Mm-hmm. Gavin Megaw: You think the reform had their conference, and Kemi's numbers went up very marginally, but they went up. And it's the fine margins which matter in moments like this. I mean, we've seen the story of the last week has been immigration. It's been these protests, it's been people reacting to the protests. How do the Conservatives deal with that heading into their party conference? Because This is likely to continue. If you're on the far right, you're the Tommy Robinson style agitators. You're gonna keep doing this. You're gonna keep making sure this is front and center of the news. But so how do the conservatives deal with it? Do they ignore it or do they tackle it head on? Do they say that people shouldn't be wearing ballot clavas? Patrick: most people who, even if they have fears or strong views on immigration, normal voters will be repulsed by what is going on here. And so I think that Badenoch's response has been right. They are not patriots. They are thugs. As she has said, and indeed Reform have said too, that people should not be wearing balaclavas on either wing. We have also had the of the pro-Palestine mob. as well, who I think also should have been stopped a long time ago, hiding their faces to protest. That's not how we do things in Britain. If you want to raise your concerns, you should have the balls to do it publicly. And she just has to say, this is an issue, immigration. Here are some ideas, we've got to deal with it, but no, we are not. The other thing is there is an economic side to these protests. They're stopping traffic getting through. are a bit like eco protestors. They're impoverishing the country by what they do. Peter: I think to sort of go back to the previous point, the Conservatives need to lean into common sense. but that is that is how they're going to I think have the best chance of outshining reform. They can't compete on anger. And things like that, they have to compete on. Well, this is how we're gonna sort it out. Here it is step by step. And here are some credible people to present our case. And I'm not sure yet that they've quite got the right team. certainly on the Shadow Home brief. and I think maybe there's one big reshuffle left, and I think that has to. You have to find someone to head up the immigration offer that people are genuinely going to believe and also not be annoyed by. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. I think the comms behind that have got to be explored a bit more further because Peter: Yes. Gavin Megaw: I can see the Conservative Party sort of moving from a position of just anger about the situation to then sensible views as we've seen at times this week. And the two things do contradict each other and lead to issues. Cause just down the road from where I live, there was some home spread with the words Migrants overnight a few days ago. And this was near a small hospital And I couldn't believe it. This is a well-off area, and someone spray painted migrants on a small property next to a hospital. And it's it's just not the way we should be living in this country. You know, if there are people living there from different backgrounds. That's fine if they're meant to live here. And we should trust the system. But I think people's trust in the system is clearly breaking down. And the conservatives got to be careful though. I know inflating the problem and creating vigilantes for what they say. Now I think they've handled this reasonably well in the last week or so, but I can see different people there making mistakes. And I think they need to get the comms right because people, particularly in the home counties, will not back them if they sound like they are vigilantes on this issue. Peter: Absolutely. And it's interesting. You get I've seen polling where they break down support for various means of controlling immigration and and borders. I think this was specifically the measures that Shabana Mahmood is currently pursuing at the Home Office on Labour's behalf. and I saw the breakdowns by party and When you spell out particular measures, you get quite high levels of support amongst Lib Dem voters and even green voters, right? Once you remove these the sort of angry, inflammatory rhetoric, you can persuade people and you can persuade them well to the left, not just in the sort of centre-right, centre-ground area that. the Conservatives are competing for. Gavin Megaw: Is the problem then credibility? Because the Conservatives spent years saying they were going to have a serious, harsh border policy. And then actually we saw record numbers of people coming into the country. And you know, you know my view, I'm a I'm the bleeding heart liberal amongst us all. I think economically we're gonna be in real trouble if we keep up with our policies that we have at present. But that said, the Conservative Party promised one thing. And people saw another. So Patrick, is it is is that part of the Conservative problem? Is it on this? Is that why some members of the party are pushing so hard and the rhetoric being a bit too aggressive? Patrick: Yes, perhaps. mean, we know from our own experience, central office, that when you come in after a big defeat, after a long time in government, people just don't want to listen to you. And they say, why didn't you deal with things? I get that. I think there is a difference between legal migration and illegal. And we do need to emphasize that. And also between... genuine asylum seekers and those who refused. And there was a story in the Times this week about the number of asylum applications that are rejected and then how hard it is to get rid of them. And I think that's perhaps a pragmatic thing that the Tories could be looking at is actually why are people, once they have entered the system and been rejected, not able to be sent back either to France or the country of origin? and also there's a bit of an industry around people helping to give them a reason to stay. Apparently there's a gay nightclub in which hundreds of Pakistan men are photographed with their shirts off trying to prove that they are gay and therefore they can't be sent back to Pakistan. But there's an industry around providing that. Similarly there was the daughter of a prime minister I think in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, somewhere like that, who apparently is having an affair with half the... male population or that's what they're all claiming and that's their reason for why they can't possibly go back. I think that's impugning a lady's honour and so I'm happy to believe that's not true but you know clearly this is being used and we've heard some examples as well of people claiming their questions and saying they can't go back to the country because of that I just like them to to attend evening prayer and buy some more products from the jam sale before they claim their... Gavin Megaw: it sounds like a classic Patrick Kidd book, this to me. So Peter, look, let's just ask you the final question before we wrap things up with our usual couple of points. suppose reform are actually weaker than we think here, and Farage goes. Where does the anger that is based around that party? So the population is angry, we said at the start, they're angry with what's happened for many years, they're going to reform because of that. they want a solution. But if Fraz goes, the party's not as popular as it was, that anger doesn't just disappear, who wins from that? Who where does it go? Peter: Zia Yusuf wins. That's I mean, he he is ideally placed to be the conduit for that anger and the amplifier of it. and the fact that he is not white himself, he is the son of immigrants, Muslim immigrants, indeed, from Sri Lanka, it puts him in an astonishingly powerful position, and I wouldn't be surprised if he emerges as a A major figure in our future politics. The question is, will he ever be able to break out beyond that 20% reform core vote? well, perhaps we should look to Germany, where for a long time the AFD was bumping along on sort of fifteen percent. they're now thirty almost thirty percent nationwide, not just in the eastern part of Germany, which is their heartlands, but thirty percent nationwide. They're about ten points clear of the second party. So it is possible that in certain circumstances that anger spills out from the the most angry segment and becomes more general. And we should never forget that there is the potential for this to spread. and that the if if you want that to happen, then yeah, by all means encourage activist judges who refuse to deport convicted rapists on the grounds that they're entitled to a f private family life. We we do need to be angry about the capture of our institutions by people that are undermining the common good of the country and On that we need to be much more vocal and we also need to have a plan of action for sorting it out, for dismantling that system that is working against the interests of voters. Gavin Megaw: Drake, is there a way for the Conservatives to get hold of that anger without turning everyone else off? Patrick: That's the challenge, isn't it? My gosh, we could spend hours more. There is anger out there. Social media encourages anger, I'm afraid. But we must always remember that the country is not what's on Twitter. Most people actually just want to get on with their lives. They want to be trusted. They want to have less regulation, less tax, and government off their back. And that's what the Conservative message is. I think that's what they need to focus on. Peter: can I just say that they do want that? Until that is the government decides to open a an asylum centre next to their village. the latest one is Piddington in Oxfordshire, very heavily Lib Dem area of the country. well, I don't think I think there's gonna be a big shift of reform amongst that local electorate. So all of these things are conditional on people's lives not being directly impacted. if they are, then all bets are off, and we must not be complacent about this. Patrick: Well let's understand that anger, absolutely, but remember from our time at Central Office, Theresa May made a speech in which she said the party was now known as the nasty party. I don't think we should pursue going back to that position. Peter: No, we should be the effective party. Patrick: us. Gavin Megaw: there we go, the effective party. right. Well, let's see whether it's been effective in the last week, folks, and get your rating of whether it's been an upper down week for Kemi, Badnock and the Conservatives. Patrick, let's start with you. Has it been a good week or a bad week? Patrick: Yes, partly by default. think when you've got headlines saying that one of your opponents is being investigated by the police and another of your opponents is saying that national security doesn't matter as much as welfare, I think that's good. It gives them something to build on as they head into the conference season. I think we're also going to have probably a return of that Pat McFadden line from a while ago about how every conversation he has with people is about how much handouts they can get. I think that we do need to move on for immigration, important though it is, and if the Tories can answer that out if Andrew Griffith as a shadow chancellor can answer how people will become wealthier then it will become even better. Gavin Megaw: Okay, what about you Peter? What's your view? Peter: well I think she ha had a good week for one main reason, which was that that P and Q's, and as Patrick just said, that astonishing line from the Prime Minister that effectively social security has to come before national security. Absolutely not. The the first duty of every government is the Patrick: Yes. Peter: defense of the realm. And The fact that Kemi Badenot got him to say that in PMQs in front of the country, the Conservatives can use that and bash him with it over and over again because it's an astonishing thing to say. And I think it highlights something more, a sort of general flakiness from Burnham, which I think is gonna get more and more exposed in the weeks and months ahead. Patrick: national security is immigration, it is crime, it is people's sense of safety and that's what they need to focus but Peter: Yes. A resilience, yes. Gavin Megaw: I couldn't agree more with you guys. I think it's a very marginal up week from my perspective, partly because of what she got out of PMQs yesterday. because that is a dividing line. Whether you're on either side doesn't matter. It's a clear dividing line that they will utilize. I do think today's interview with Emma Barnett on today's program was a bit difficult. And I think she did well with the messaging. I just wasn't happy with the performance and I'd love her to spend more time thinking about how to play through interviews like that rather than falling into the trap. Because I just think it's a blocker for other people to listen to what she's got to say. And I'm not, I don't think you can win if people aren't listening to you. So engagement is key. Patrick: That's why I listen to Radio 3 instead. Gavin Megaw: Right. Well, look, let's be done with politics and get on to your recommendations, folks. So let's start with you, Patrick. Again, what's your recommendation to make sure people are Remaining sane in the next week. Patrick: I like to be positive, I like to be optimistic. I went along on Sunday to an optimistic picnic that was in Hyde Park, which some Jobsworths tried to close down, asking if they had a permit for it. But actually it was full of nice young people wanting to have reasons to be happy, and they seemed to be conservative. So I'm going to go for cosiness. Our summer holiday was in the Yorkshire Dales, James Herriot country, and as a result of that I've been reading James Herriot books. And I am looking for next week all creatures great and small returns to channel 5 And I just think that is going to be my escapism forget about politics curl up with Gavin Megaw: Yeah. Patrick: a vet with his hand up inside a cowl that that's my future Gavin Megaw: That's a very Patrick Kid answer. Peter, what about you? Peter: I'm afraid I'm not gonna leave behind politics. and even worse, I'm going to recommend another politics podcast. yes, I know. it's the Not Another One podcast, which is various people, including Ian Martin, Miranda Green, and Tim Montgomery. obviously he's been in the news this week, having left reform. And it's a really nice discussion they have. It's a very sort of frank, almost sort of vulnerable account of what happened. And I would really sort of recommend it if you want to get an idea of the the human beings behind these stories. and it's a it's a great podcast anyway, because it's diverse views from from left to right. and they're all nice to each other, which is a sort of lesson to all of us I think. Gavin Megaw: very good, Peter. Well, I'm going to depress people even further, though, by heading off into the world of AI for my recommendation. I've become a bit obsessive about reading about AI, the technology companies, what they're doing, because I believe it's where power really sits. And I've got a YouTube channel called Gavin McGaugh and I record a lot of videos about power and reputation. And because of that, the AI is at the heart of it really these days. And I did one yesterday about how I felt that AI is too big to feel. And a lot of my thinking of this goes back to a paper I read in 2025 called AI 2027. And given all the headlines of the minute around safety and also the political control of AI, I really encourage everyone to go back and read it. and I'll put a link in the show notes along with a link to the podcast that Peter referenced because this paper looks at the race to get to AGI, but also the political machinations that will play out in the US, in China as a result. And I think all of those things matter to all anyone who's interested in politics and geopolitics, because it is important for us all. So I encourage you all to have a read of it. It will help you think through it's in effect a forecast done in 2025 by experts in AI about what's going to come. And I can't see much that they've got wrong so far, sadly. Right. Let's finish up though. Thank you for joining us this week for the common Sense Revolution podcast. I hope you enjoyed it. Please subscribe. Please share. Please leave a review. Please argue with us if you want and tell us what we've got wrong. but we'll be back next week and we hope you will be too. We'll see you then.