Latest / Simply Bitcoin / FORGET JP Morgan & Blackrock, we FINALLY Know WHO is SUPPRESSING Bitcoins price?! | EP 1397
Transcript
- 0:02While everyone's been blaming JP Morgan and BlackRock for
- 0:06manipulating the price of Bitcoin, there's been someone
- 0:09else that's quietly helping these massive institutions
- 0:13suppress Bitcoin, but not for the reasons you might think.
- 0:17Based on all of the recent moves by banks and Wall Street into
- 0:21the space the last few weeks, it's starting to look like these
- 0:24whales are playing games so that they can scoop up Bitcoin at
- 0:29discounted prices yes guys, we finally, I think have proof of
- 0:34what's going on. It actually happened once again
- 0:37this morning, but before I show you kind of before I chart boy
- 0:40on you guys, I'm I'm not really going to chart boy.
- 0:43I'm I'm just going to show you that it's actually happened.
- 0:45Let me kind of lay out exactly what's going on so here's a
- 0:49great tweet breakdown here by bull theory IO and he goes why
- 0:55has Bitcoin been dumping at literally exactly 10 AM when the
- 0:59US markets open and it's because Wall Street wants Bitcoin on the
- 1:05cheap guys it's it's what I've been telling you guys look guys,
- 1:08you think you think I'm just like talking smack here yes.
- 1:11Maybe I am the source, but I'm telling you guys there is some
- 1:15shenanigans going on in the market right now and it's so
- 1:18they can buy Bitcoin on the cheap.
- 1:21I've been calling it the billionaire flood playbook for
- 1:23years You Bitcoin, you get yourself a good position in
- 1:27Bitcoin and then finally when you're ready, you let it RIP
- 1:31it's basically what's going on so here this this was posted
- 1:36December 8th, So it's been happening for a couple of days
- 1:38now Actually it probably a couple of weeks now, but today
- 1:41this was on the eights Bitcoin E raised 16 hours of gains in just
- 1:4420 minutes after the US market open since early November,
- 1:47Bitcoin has dumped most of the time after U.S. markets open.
- 1:51The same thing happened in Q2 and Q3 and zero had has been
- 1:55calling this out repeatedly and he thinks it's Jane St. and I
- 1:58think that's who it is guys, it's Jane St.
- 2:01They're most likely the entity doing this.
- 2:03When you look at the chart, the pattern is too consistent to
- 2:05ignore a clean wipeout within an hour of the market opening
- 2:09followed by a slow recovery. That's classic high frequency
- 2:13execution and it fits their profile.
- 2:15Jane Street is one of the largest high frequency trading
- 2:18firms in the world. They have the speed and the
- 2:20liquidity to move market for a few minutes and the behavior is
- 2:24very simple. One you dump Bitcoin at the
- 2:27market open 2 you push price into the liquidity pockets,
- 2:31which I've been telling you guys they're trying to clear the
- 2:33leverage in the system and it's usually where these liquidity
- 2:37pockets are. You know, you clear the shorts,
- 2:39you clear the longs, you basically clear everyone out in
- 2:43the market and then you re enter lower and you repeat this on the
- 2:47daily. If this was happening just
- 2:49occasionally, I think it just kind of be like normal market
- 2:55move. You'd be like, yeah, whatever,
- 2:56but it's literally happening almost every day at exactly the
- 3:00same time. And it happened again this
- 3:02morning. I saw some people in the chat
- 3:04earlier. They're like, man, another day
- 3:06of Bitcoin being down. Well, if you see when this
- 3:10happens, it literally happens the first hour of the markets
- 3:14being open. So it isn't just by accident.
- 3:17It's not just you know, Bitcoin is weak because of the macro
- 3:20indicators going on. There is someone in the market
- 3:23that is very actively trying to tank the price so that they can
- 3:27get in lower, so that they can not only make money when it
- 3:31drops, but they can get at a better price.
- 3:33And by doing this, James St. has accumulated billions in Bitcoin.
- 3:38As of now, James St. holds 2.5 billion worth of Blackrock's I
- 3:41Bit ETF, which is their 5th largest position.
- 3:44Obviously this was a couple of days ago, so they're probably
- 3:48got more than 2 1/2 billion dollars in I bit ETF.
- 3:51And this means most of the in Bitcoin isn't due to macro
- 3:54weakness like I just said, but due to a manipulation by one
- 3:58major entity. And once these big players are
- 4:01done with buying Bitcoin will continue its upward momentum.
- 4:05Now I know a lot of people will always say I told you Opti, you
- 4:09know, they they can manipulate Bitcoin.
- 4:11Like what I thought you guys said Bitcoin can't be
- 4:14controlled. Well, obviously the price in the
- 4:17short term can get manipulated. All markets can get manipulated.
- 4:21I saw a lot of people arguing over gold in the chat this
- 4:23morning. It's like, how do you think
- 4:25they've been able to suppress gold for so long?
- 4:28It's the paper gold market. Hence why 2025 was dubbed, you
- 4:32know, paper Bitcoin summer is because now the paper is in the
- 4:36market through these ETF. Do these derivatives do of
- 4:39course, leverage it's all happening in Bitcoin.
- 4:42But I do believe this can only happen in the short term.
- 4:45In the long term, they're not going to be able to control
- 4:47Bitcoin. And even further, what I always
- 4:49say is, yeah, they can, you know, definitely whipsaw the
- 4:52price, but they can't actually control the base layer, the
- 4:56transactional layer of Bitcoin. So yes, they are trying to keep
- 5:00the price of Bitcoin low is because they want to buy it.
- 5:03Now, a lot of people are saying recently, oh, you know, they're
- 5:07trying to crash Bitcoin. They want Bitcoin to go to 0
- 5:09because it threatens their whole business model.
- 5:12I don't think that's what's going on.
- 5:13Obviously, that is true. Bitcoin does threaten a lot of
- 5:17traditional financial business models, but it's not, they're
- 5:21not just trying to tank the Bitcoin price so that it goes to
- 5:230. They're trying to keep the price
- 5:25down so that they can get a good position in the market.
- 5:28They understand what we understand.
- 5:30Look, you can't put the genie back into the bottle.
- 5:33Bitcoin is never going away. There is no, in my opinion,
- 5:36again, in my opinion, there's no future that Bitcoin as it is.
- 5:41And if it can maintain its decentralization and of course,
- 5:44it's adoption growth, there's no world from here on out where we
- 5:48go back to a Fiat standard, a gold standard.
- 5:51It is the Bitcoin standard. This is the future of money.
- 5:55Of course, I'm biased, but that's how I view this thing.
- 5:58OK, going further, we do have a little more kind of breakdown of
- 6:02what exactly is going on here again the next day.
- 6:07So what was this December 12th? So this morning breaking the 10
- 6:10AM manipulation is back. Bitcoin dropped $2000 and 35
- 6:14minutes and wiped out $40 billion from its market cap,
- 6:17$132 million worth of longs have been liquidated in an hour and
- 6:22they go, this is getting ridiculous.
- 6:24OK, going further, another kind of breakdown of what James
- 6:28Street is most likely doing. Obviously we kind of, we have a
- 6:33smoking gun. This seems to be the source of
- 6:36who is manipulating the price. Now, when I was kind of coming
- 6:39up with this idea this morning, I'm like, I, I kind of made the
- 6:43case. It's like, oh, OK, you know,
- 6:45the, the price manipulation isn't coming from Black Street
- 6:48or, I'm sorry, BlackRock and JP Morgan, it's coming from James
- 6:53St. Like cool.
- 6:54We finally found the source and Luke was saying because we, we
- 6:58did talk this morning and he was like, no, dude, I think it's
- 7:01probably JP Morgan because we, we, I think we can very easily
- 7:05prove that JP Morgan was kind of manipulating the price.
- 7:08We know they were trying to manipulate the stock price of
- 7:10MSTR. They did a really good job and
- 7:12then they launched their product.
- 7:14He's like, I think it's, I think it's these big institutions and
- 7:18James St. of course, JP Morgan's one of the biggest bank in the
- 7:22US, Blackrock's the biggest asset manager in the world and
- 7:25James Street is the biggest high frequency trading firm in the
- 7:29world. So I think all of these things
- 7:31are working in conjunction right now.
- 7:33So this demoralization that you felt all year, you can finally
- 7:38start to find the root of it. This is what they've been
- 7:41wanting to do. The fact that everyone is
- 7:43getting bearish, the fact that they're launching all of these
- 7:46big Bitcoin products at the very same time just keeps telling me
- 7:50that like, yo, this has all been organized.
- 7:53This is all part of the plan right now because they know they
- 7:57can't stop this thing long term. But what they can try to do is
- 8:01get a discount on it, get that, get themselves in a good
- 8:04position. And once everyone's in position,
- 8:06once all of Wall Street basically has a position, or
- 8:09rather maybe all the key players of Wall Street have a solid
- 8:11position, and then they're going to send it, Guys.
- 8:14Like, this is basically what I've been telling you guys the
- 8:17last few weeks. And we finally have the source
- 8:20here. We have the smoking gun.
- 8:21Yes, Wall Street is playing some games with the price.
- 8:26Wall Street is doing Wall Street things.
- 8:28We knew this was going to happen.
- 8:29As I've been saying on the show, we've all been essentially
- 8:33begging for the institutions to come in because we thought they
- 8:36were going to pump our bags. And I've been saying, you know,
- 8:39be careful what you wish for. This is what happens when Wall
- 8:42Street comes into a literal tiny market.
- 8:45Bitcoin is a puddle compared to the ocean that is the
- 8:49traditional financial Wall Street markets.
- 8:51And if you don't think that they can mess with the price in the
- 8:54short term when Bitcoin is under $2 trillion, you really don't
- 8:57understand how Wall Street works.
- 8:59You, you're really being naive about how you know, quote UN
- 9:03quote, capitalism plays out on Wall Street.
- 9:05This is literally by the playbook.
- 9:08We've seen this, this happened multiple times in multiple
- 9:10different markets. It, it doesn't necessarily mean
- 9:13Bitcoin's being controlled. It just means that, hey, we're
- 9:15not in the driver's seat right now until retail comes back,
- 9:18until we see FOMO, until we see huge amounts of individual
- 9:24conviction going into Bitcoin, they're going to be able to
- 9:27whipsaw this market. So that that's just where we are
- 9:30right now, guys. That's where we are in the
- 9:31movie. But going further here is a
- 9:34little more of a breakdown of the mechanic.
- 9:36So Jane St. puts Bitcoin on sale nearly every day, then it bought
- 9:40buys calls after they beat up the price, and then Jane Street
- 9:43is one of the biggest market makers in high frequency trading
- 9:45firms in the world. Jane St. holds over $202.5
- 9:49billion worth of Blackrock's IBIT ETF, again their 5th
- 9:53largest position. They own shares directly and
- 9:56they are the second largest owner of IBIT.
- 9:58Calls options to buy more IBIT. Dude I've been telling you guys
- 10:03there's someone in the chat said this to me the other day.
- 10:06It's like it was actually a comment on YouTube.
- 10:08They're like oh Opti what a horrible take.
- 10:12You said that JP Morgan isn't incentivized to nuke Bitcoin
- 10:17because they're making so much money off.
- 10:20Of this is like. Bitcoins going to destroy JP
- 10:22Morgan as an institution. I'm like.
- 10:24Bro. They like money that you don't
- 10:27understand how much money they're making right now.
- 10:29Wow, Main Street while everyone, even Bitcoiners are feeling
- 10:34bearish. You know, I, I know a lot of
- 10:35bitcoiners that are like, oh, I'm going to trade the top, you
- 10:38know, 126 with the top. I'm going to buy down lower.
- 10:41And I just keep thinking I'm like, yo, Max Payne is the true
- 10:44believer sitting on the sidelines waiting for 50K30K58K
- 10:50Bitcoin. And Bitcoin doesn't get below
- 10:5375K80K, maybe 70K. And then it.
- 10:57Rips, when all these institutions are in, I'm like,
- 10:59yo, they are making money hand over fist right now.
- 11:04You got to remember these players aren't dumb.
- 11:07They have launched these products now, yes, of course
- 11:10they make money whether Bitcoin goes up or down.
- 11:13But they're also at this beginning point, they're at the
- 11:17starting line where essentially there still is some kind of
- 11:22reputation arbitrage going on right now where if they come
- 11:27out, and by they, I mean Wall Street, if Wall Street comes out
- 11:29and embraces Bitcoin and it absolutely tanks and destroys
- 11:34all of their clients products, that is some pie on their face.
- 11:38And, and they don't want that to happen.
- 11:40They, they are hinging a little bit of the reputation on
- 11:43embracing Bitcoin. It's the beginning of that
- 11:45story. Again, their starting point is
- 11:48100K. If they can get a discount,
- 11:50build their products, get their bags packed and then it rips to
- 11:53250K. They are looked upon as
- 11:57geniuses. I think this is what's playing
- 11:59out guys. I think this is literally by the
- 12:02playbook exactly what's going on.
- 12:04Hence why I am so bullish for 2020 26.
- 12:07I feel like the foundation has been fully built out in 2025.
- 12:10The macro kind of indicators that the macro outlook is
- 12:14starting to shift again. I told you guys yesterday, the
- 12:18money printers coming back on, we are basically in QE without
- 12:22calling it QE. It's starting to look like 2025.
- 12:26Bitcoin did kind of get pummeled because of all of the macro kind
- 12:30of outlook. There's a lot of negative
- 12:31uncertainty. Now, it looks like if things do
- 12:35turn around in 2026, the money printer comes back on, liquidity
- 12:38comes back on. We all know for in the US in
- 12:41particular, midterms are next year.
- 12:44So they're going to have to run the economy very hot so that
- 12:46people basically vote them back in, especially when the
- 12:50Republicans run on a platform of economics and, you know,
- 12:53prosperity. And if everyone is feeling poor,
- 12:56they're not going to get voted back in.
- 12:58So what are they going to do? They're going to run the economy
- 13:01super hot, they're going to probably continue to lower
- 13:06interest rates. They're going to decimate the
- 13:08purchasing power because those things work hand in glove
- 13:10together. They need they need more
- 13:13liquidity and they need looser interest rates, looser monetary
- 13:16policy for them to be able to kind of make everyone feel like
- 13:20they're making a lot more money. Anyways, going back to this, how
- 13:23does this James St. kind of dump work?
- 13:25I did lay it out a minute ago, but you dump Bitcoin at open,
- 13:29you push the price into these liquidation zones, you re enter
- 13:32lower and you just keep doing this.
- 13:34This is how you accumulate a lot of Bitcoin.
- 13:36This is how Wall Street works. You think Wall Street out here
- 13:39like all right, guys, we're just going to buy spot Bitcoin and
- 13:43we're going to huddle. They're like no, we're going to
- 13:45liquidate the market. We're going to liquidate all the
- 13:48leverage so that we are the ones in place so that people come to
- 13:51us for the leverage. People come to us for the
- 13:53custody, accumulate a huge position, and then we'll send
- 13:58it. This is literally free Bitcoin
- 14:00for them. This is them just freaking
- 14:02rinsing and repeating this process while everyone's on the
- 14:06sideline reading the tea leaves essentially being like, oh, we
- 14:09hit 126 K in October, 18 months after the halving, bro, we're
- 14:14going into a bear market and Wall Street's coming in like,
- 14:17yo, like give me your lunch, amateur.
- 14:21Like I am taking this. I'm literally drinking your
- 14:23milkshake right now because you don't understand how this works.
- 14:26So again, you know, don't listen to people that say, and I'm one
- 14:30of them, that it's not impossible to manipulate the
- 14:33price of Bitcoin. It totally is.
- 14:36But you can't actually control the Bitcoin network unless you
- 14:41control all of the Bitcoin, unless you can control the base
- 14:44layer, the transactional layer, then I would consider that
- 14:49control over Bitcoin. But they can totally manipulate
- 14:51the price. And actually, I was talking to
- 14:53Rustin this morning, and I'll continue on this process.
- 14:56And Rustin was saying, because we were talking about this
- 14:59process, he actually did a funny tweet.
- 15:01I don't know if I can pull it up on YouTube right now, but he did
- 15:04a funny tweet. You know, whoever is
- 15:06manipulating the Bitcoin price at 10 AM, they should go
- 15:08straight to jail. And I respond, I'm like, yeah,
- 15:11we're going to cover this on today's show.
- 15:13We know who it is. It's Jane St.
- 15:14Like Jane Street is the culprit here.
- 15:16And Ruston said something like, well, if we know that they're
- 15:21manipulating Bitcoin at the exact time they're going to do
- 15:24it, then all we need is a bunch of people DCA ING and buying
- 15:28Bitcoin. And I'm like, yeah, in theory
- 15:31that would work. But they have way more capital
- 15:34than all of us combined at the moment.
- 15:36Again, there is hardly been any volume in Bitcoin.
- 15:39The only people left in Bitcoin are Bitcoiners.
- 15:42And most of us have no more Fiat.
- 15:44And they're out here, you know, buying billions, hundreds of
- 15:46billions of of Bitcoin. They're shorting the market.
- 15:50It's like we are getting dwarfed just by the size of the capital
- 15:53that Wall Street has. And they're dipping their toes
- 15:56into this whole new market. They're literally dipping their
- 15:58toes into a puddle. And we are just fleas on the
- 16:02dog's tail at this point. This is why they're able to
- 16:06manipulate the Bitcoin price. And then also, as we've seen
- 16:09with ETFs, the paper in the markets is how they actually
- 16:13manipulate the markets. And that just got unleashed.
- 16:16So until a lot of people come back and forth to buy Bitcoin,
- 16:20accumulate a lot of Bitcoin, or yeah, that's the only way we're
- 16:24going to do this. But we're being dwarfed by the
- 16:26size of capital that's in Bitcoin right now.
- 16:28So, you know, the the only winning play is I've been
- 16:31telling you guys is do what they're doing.
- 16:34You just accumulate Bitcoin. Yes, it's been whipsawing.
- 16:37Yes, it's kind of dumping. I don't believe it's going into
- 16:40a bear market, not with all of these indicators coming out.
- 16:43You know, all of Wall Street essentially being like, yeah, I
- 16:45want some chomping at the bits to get into Bitcoin.
- 16:49I am. I'm not convinced of a bear
- 16:50market. They're they're accumulating so
- 16:52much coin right now. They're literally wrecking all
- 16:56of the traders right now. Hence why I keep saying, and we
- 16:59always say on this show, you should not be trading Bitcoin.
- 17:02You cannot outsmart these high frequency algorithm trades.
- 17:07It's just you're not going to do it.
- 17:09So what should you do? You just buy Bitcoin and you
- 17:11accumulate it and you take it in the cold storage because the
- 17:14only real power you have is controlling your Bitcoin.
- 17:19You cannot leave the coin on exchange.
- 17:23Oh, my bad guys. My guess I had the wrong audio
- 17:26on here. But we're back.
- 17:28We're back. OK, going further.
- 17:31Here we go. Here's a little more of what's
- 17:34going on. Susquehanna, Jane St. and
- 17:37Citadel are the three largest institutional players in I bit
- 17:40derivatives. They own most of the calls.
- 17:42They own the upside. Look at the surge in Jane St's
- 17:45position. Understand how much Bitcoin, how
- 17:48much higher Bitcoin is going. Understand in the interim that
- 17:51Bitcoin price is being suppressed until these quote
- 17:54masters of the universe finish loading up.
- 17:57Then we see 250K Bitcoin. 2026 is my bet.
- 18:00Seems to be what Wall Street's betting as well.
- 18:04Remember what Wall Street has been telling us?
- 18:07Remember what JP Morgan has been telling us?
- 18:09They say 170 next year, 150 next year.
- 18:13I think it could go higher than that.
- 18:14Obviously I've been wrong on my price predictions all year, but
- 18:18I'm not convinced that 2026 is going to be a bear market.
- 18:22As I was arguing with Nico yesterday, the cycle theory is
- 18:25completely broken. Whether you believe 20 October
- 18:29was the top at 1:26 or not. The if we maintain where we are
- 18:35right now, which I'm actually not convinced that we're going
- 18:37to be on a red year as we're kind of seeing the price get a
- 18:41little frothy, we might actually end up on a positive year
- 18:45though. It's going to basically be like
- 18:46break even, maybe 100K, which is still what like I don't have 5%
- 18:51up on the year. It's I, I, I'm convinced the
- 18:54four year cycle is broken. But what does that mean going
- 18:56further? We really have no idea if we
- 19:00have a red year this year, even if it's a positive green year,
- 19:04it doesn't mean that next year's going to be a negative, a huge
- 19:08negative bear market. It could potentially be a
- 19:10positive parabolic year. This could be Bitcoin's last
- 19:13year just fundamentally changing the entire market of Bitcoin.
- 19:17But you know, going further, I'll, I'll show you a little
- 19:20more of the fact. Oh, actually, we'll, we'll start
- 19:23with this. We'll start with the price
- 19:25today. I'm not chart boying.
- 19:26OK, guys, I'm not chart boying. This is not chart boying.
- 19:29I'm just showing you literally look at the time, Friday,
- 19:34December 12th, this says 15 o'clock, which was literally 10
- 19:37AM this morning. It's happening on clockwork and
- 19:42you can see they, they kind of what they do.
- 19:44They did a oops wrong way, wrong way.
- 19:47They did. Let's see what, what'd we do?
- 19:49You know, a little 3% drop. Just just a little action here,
- 19:54just a little action here. But this is where it gets
- 19:57interesting. As I've been telling you guys,
- 19:59this has been happening literally like clockwork almost
- 20:02every single day, right? When the markets open, it just
- 20:05absolutely dumps on us and it's demoralizing us.
- 20:07We're just, we're just Barting this whole time.
- 20:09It's just nothing but Barts and everyone's wondering what is
- 20:12going on. Well, here is the senior analyst
- 20:15at Coindesk. He's been covering this for a
- 20:17couple of days. He goes exactly 3 weeks ago,
- 20:19Bitcoin went below 90K. Each time it has gone below 90K
- 20:23in the past three weeks. The duration has been shorter,
- 20:26which is essentially telling you that they are losing their power
- 20:28to do this. Yes, they can manipulate the
- 20:31price, but at a certain point they can't really.
- 20:33They push the, you know, the, the beach ball underwater that
- 20:36much that far and then slowly but surely they will lose that
- 20:40power and it's going to RIP on the other side.
- 20:42Here we go. You know, Jane, sorry, James Van
- 20:46Stratton, he's actually been covering this a little bit and
- 20:50he goes, you know this one December 9th, Jane St. couldn't
- 20:54even get it below 90K for a second today.
- 20:57Well, they, they finally were able to do that and then
- 21:00December 10th James St. got to 91.6 K today.
- 21:04They're not working hard enough. Obviously the Bitcoiners are
- 21:07like, man, can we get this to RIP?
- 21:09And then they go, they managed to get Bitcoin below 90K for a
- 21:12few minutes today. Again, the low was in the 1st 30
- 21:15minutes of trading DGDJIIWM at all time highs, which will be
- 21:20followed by NASDAQ and SPX before year end.
- 21:22Still dislocation between equities and Bitcoin, but still
- 21:25believe Bitcoin gaps up rather than stocks go down.
- 21:29And I really don't even know what this IWM is but he did do
- 21:34this chart. Was it this one?
- 21:38No, I don't think it was. But here's his case that he's
- 21:41making. He says since the USETF launch,
- 21:43Bitcoin has now had five months or has not made a bottom within
- 21:45the 1st 10 days of the month. Structurally, the market changed
- 21:48in November after the October liquidation crash.
- 21:51Bitcoin has so far bottomed in the 1st 10 days of December.
- 21:55Looks like the market structure is back, which is something I
- 21:58told you guys for the last couple of weeks where we see
- 22:02this interesting trend going on. There's two kind of interesting
- 22:06market, I don't know if you want to call it manipulation or maybe
- 22:09this is just a, a structure of the fact that the institutions
- 22:14are in Bitcoin. But within the 1st 5 to 10 days
- 22:18of every month, you do see, you do put in the, the Bitcoin low
- 22:22of that month. And a lot of people have been
- 22:24thinking that it's these institutions rolling over their
- 22:26kind of monthly bets. And now we're seeing that at
- 22:31literally at 10 AM basically every single day, right when the
- 22:34markets open, we see this crash, it sets the low and then it
- 22:38slowly starts rising up again. So I will go back here for a
- 22:42little bit. You know, we could we could look
- 22:43at some chart bowling. I know, I know you guys love the
- 22:46chart bowling. This is the one hour chart here,
- 22:48but I'll show you like the one day chart, which is kind of what
- 22:52I'm looking at. You know, I'm not I'm not not I
- 22:54don't trade, but I do like to put magic lines on a chart and
- 22:58and kind of guess where it's going.
- 23:01So I am seeing this kind of like trend, you know, lower highs and
- 23:04you can see like we barely been able to get over 92 K Every time
- 23:09we do, they push it back down. As you can see, it's starting to
- 23:13lose that power pretty soon. I think it's going to start to
- 23:16RIP up and then we'll start making a move to one O 8.
- 23:20Oh wait, I didn't show it. Sorry guys, but what what do I
- 23:23know here Actually, I'm sorry, sorry, I got to repeat myself
- 23:25little trend line here. Every time it gets to 92 K, it
- 23:29comes back down, barely breaks out, comes back down, breaks
- 23:32outcomes back down. You can see it's just a pattern
- 23:35of you know, popping up kind of getting frothy and then it will
- 23:40eventually, I think, break to the upside.
- 23:43This is what I've been saying on the show for the last couple of
- 23:47weeks. So it's specifically when Nico
- 23:49came out and was is extremely bearish on me.
- 23:52I'm like, bro, you are you're you're still working on old
- 23:55paradigms here. You're still thinking in four
- 23:57year cycles now. I'm still up to this point, you
- 24:02know, on the fence of whether the four year cycle is
- 24:04completely intact or not. Obviously if you're looking at
- 24:08kind of the the basic theme or idea of a four year cycle, which
- 24:11is 18 months after the halving is when you'll see an all time
- 24:15high and then you're going to go into a bear market.
- 24:17Now the other kind of four year cycle halving meme is 3 green
- 24:22years, one red. As of now, we have not done
- 24:25that. We need to get to what is it
- 24:28like 93 something? I mean, let me double check
- 24:32here. So the year opened at 93,403.
- 24:36We're currently at 90,000 or sorry, yeah, currently at
- 24:4090,200. So we can potentially have a red
- 24:46year here. It could potentially be a
- 24:48neutral, just nothing happened all year long.
- 24:51Yes, there was volatility up and down, but if the close is
- 24:55roughly where we are now or roughly where the year open, I I
- 25:01think that 3 green years, one red year is just it's completely
- 25:06broken that that's no longer holds any weight and actually an
- 25:10interesting kind of conspiracy theory.
- 25:13I don't I I just like using that word.
- 25:15An interesting theory that Luke was kind of telling me, which
- 25:18does kind of go into the greater theme of just demoralizing
- 25:22bitcoiners. Here.
- 25:23It is breaking that four year cycle meme.
- 25:26The institutions are finally in and they're like, well, I know
- 25:29what the Bitcoiners believe. I I know where their targets
- 25:33are. So let me just break all of
- 25:34their models, confuse them, and then we just take this to the
- 25:38moon. Like my Max Payne theory is
- 25:42literally that, that, you know, we were all expecting a 2025
- 25:46blow off top. That didn't happen.
- 25:49So bit corners are getting scared.
- 25:51They think it's going to go into a bear market.
- 25:53You know, some bit corners sell out at local tops or maybe the
- 25:56all time high 126 and then they expect the price to go back down
- 26:00lower. But what would be Max Payne in
- 26:03that scenario? That the true believers of
- 26:06Bitcoin are sitting on the sidelines in cash as Bitcoin
- 26:10starts ripping and it rips past their sell point and then they
- 26:15aren't able to get back to Bitcoin that they sold and Wall
- 26:18Street is laughing to the bank. It's literally that one meme
- 26:21where they're all in suits laughing.
- 26:22It's like the Bitcoiners thought it was going to be a four year
- 26:26meme cycle. We come in, we completely blow
- 26:29their models out of the water, we pack our bags, we literally
- 26:33take their Bitcoin and then we RIP it and then they have to
- 26:38chase the price. And I'm like, man, I think
- 26:41that's what's happening. Like I am totally convinced that
- 26:44this is happening with all the stuff we've seen this year on,
- 26:47even starting from last year. Again, I've made this case.
- 26:50I'm a broken, broken record at this point, but there's still a
- 26:53lot of people that are that are believing in the four year
- 26:56cycle. But I think all of our memes in
- 26:59regards to the four year cycle are broken.
- 27:01One, we really only have three data points.
- 27:03Yes, Bitcoins been around for what, 16 plus years?
- 27:0617 Are we going on 17 years right now?
- 27:08Yeah, we're about to go to 17 years and we've had three bull
- 27:13runs, 3 Bear, you know, four year cycles.
- 27:17It's not enough data to really kind of hang your hat on and be
- 27:21like, Oh yeah, the pass is going to repeat the very same way.
- 27:24Second, secondly, secondly, we had a halving before or all time
- 27:31high before. The halving never happened
- 27:33before 2025, the parabolic year. It's a negative red year or
- 27:38maybe just a neutral year. We didn't see any parabolic run
- 27:42at all. It's just kind of whips all it
- 27:44up and down. But overall it's the same exact
- 27:47price. The institutions are able to
- 27:49come in full force. There's a, you know, and you
- 27:52might not like the meme, but the Bitcoin president of the United
- 27:55States fully going into Bitcoin. We have a an administration that
- 27:59is becoming more pro Bitcoin. We're, we're starting to see
- 28:02that elation is getting a lot clearer around Bitcoin.
- 28:05They have completely pivoted 180%.
- 28:09They no longer fighting Bitcoin. They're actually slowly but
- 28:12surely embracing Bitcoin. And I do have some updates on
- 28:15that later on in the show. Got some, some more news coming
- 28:18out of the CFTC and the OCC today.
- 28:22It's like the whole narrative shift around Bitcoin it, it's
- 28:26completely different now. It's a totally different game.
- 28:29I think since the institutions got in, they've it's
- 28:32fundamentally shifted everything.
- 28:34We are in uncharted waters. Obviously no one knows where the
- 28:38price is going. I don't know where the price is
- 28:40going. But all I can say is by looking
- 28:42at all the data, and I hate to say it, but this time is
- 28:45different. Like things have changed.
- 28:47It reminds me of that Zen Cohen. You know, you can never step
- 28:52into the same river twice. And that's what we're doing.
- 28:55We're we're told it's like it's a New River, it's a new game and
- 28:59you gotta update your mental models.
- 29:00This whole year I've been updating my mental models.
- 29:02Obviously, I'm still stupidly bullish.
- 29:05I've been, I've been wrong about where Bitcoin was going 'cause I
- 29:07was working on the old paradigm of what Bitcoin did.
- 29:11I did have the old expectations of what Bitcoin was going to do,
- 29:15but things the institutions have fundamentally changed the game.
- 29:19I'm totally convinced of this. I I think I'm going to be
- 29:22vindicated later in 2026. In the meantime, the game
- 29:27doesn't change. This is Bitcoin odd discount.
- 29:31You need to continue to accumulate.
- 29:34It's not enough to just buy Bitcoin once, take it into cold
- 29:37storage. This is the game you need to
- 29:40play, which is constantly buying, constantly saving in
- 29:44Bitcoin, constantly accumulating it and then taking it into cold
- 29:48storage. This is how you win the game.
- 29:51That's the game it's a simple game.
- 29:53Don't let all of the noise confuse you.
- 29:56Don't let the market sentimentality get your emotions
- 29:59riled up and you start getting depressed.
- 30:02I mean like you guys saw me throughout the year.
- 30:04I feel like I'm more invigorated now, even though I I do I do I I
- 30:09am looking forward to a a little break here for Christmas.
- 30:12I'm going to have a break Nico's going to still do the show, but
- 30:14I'm going to have a little weak Christmas break go back to see
- 30:18the fam. But this year, if you are being
- 30:20honest with yourself, and I know a lot of us just kind of cope
- 30:23and we stay stupidly bullish, but there is a lot of
- 30:26demoralization. I've been seeing some of my
- 30:29friends in the chat that are the most bullish people by like 2
- 30:33weeks ago. They're like, man, I'm tired
- 30:35boss like I thought we were going to RIP like I I thought
- 30:38this was going to be a good year, but Wall Street is
- 30:41definitely playing some shenanigans right now.
- 30:44They are they're messing with Bitcoin.
- 30:46So don't let them mess with your mind here.
- 30:48The game plan hasn't changed. The game plan should never
- 30:51change. Stack Bitcoin, saving Bitcoin,
- 30:55accumulate more wealth, accumulate more of the Bitcoin
- 30:58pie because they're that's what they're doing.
- 31:01They're put they they've suppressed the Bitcoin price and
- 31:05that they didn't even do a good job.
- 31:06Yeah, we were at 126. Yes, it went to 85 K, we all
- 31:11thought or 80K. We all thought the world was
- 31:13ending. They just got themselves a 30%
- 31:15discount and it's going to RIP. Remember, I kept telling you
- 31:19guys, since the ETF was launched in 2023, we've had this upward
- 31:24trend or wait, sorry, upward trend here where Bitcoin kind of
- 31:29just slow grinds. It has a 30% drawdown.
- 31:32It slow grinds again for a couple of months, 30% drawdown.
- 31:36It's just, I look, I don't know, I'm speculating, but I'm
- 31:41updating my model on what I'm seeing.
- 31:43And I think the 30% drawdown was what we're going to be seeing
- 31:47this. It's just going to kind of do
- 31:48this slow grind. You're going to get bored to
- 31:50death. It'll have a 30% drawdown.
- 31:52We all think it's going to be over and then it's going to slow
- 31:54grind again. So we know where it's coming
- 31:58from. Wall Street is definitely trying
- 32:00to suppress the Bitcoin price, but it's starting to lose their
- 32:05effect. They, they haven't been able in
- 32:07the last couple of weeks, or rather maybe in the most recent
- 32:10attempts to be able to push Bitcoin down that much more.
- 32:14It's only a matter of time until this, this, you know, rips to
- 32:17the upside. And look, I think I'm in good
- 32:20company here where I where I'm saying that 2026 is going to be
- 32:23bullish, but it's not, it's not about what they're saying.
- 32:26I think we're all kind of looking at the same information.
- 32:29The institutions are starting to get bullish, they're starting to
- 32:33drop products, they're starting to accumulate in bulk.
- 32:36They want to get Bitcoin on discount because remember,
- 32:39they're starting price is 100K. They just got a 30% discount.
- 32:44They're stacking it up. At a certain point, it's going
- 32:47to RIP. And I just hope that you're not
- 32:49sitting on the sidelines. If you didn't watch yesterday's
- 32:52show, what they just admitted that the money printer is coming
- 32:55back on, it should absolutely terrify you if you do not have a
- 33:00solid position in assets. Now, I did say assets broadly,
- 33:05but in particular, I mean Bitcoin.
- 33:07They're going to destroy the purchasing power.
- 33:10If your friends and family and everyone on Main Street isn't
- 33:14acquiring Bitcoin right now, it's not looking pretty for the
- 33:19future. Just let me put it like that.
- 33:21The purchasing power of the US dollar is going down in real
- 33:24time. Actually, I am reminded I, I
- 33:26didn't pull this up yesterday because we kind of started
- 33:28ranting, but I did mention to you guys that the Dixie chart
- 33:33was getting absolutely cooked yesterday.
- 33:35Obviously in terms of percentages, it's not that bad,
- 33:39but it, you know, it's, it's, it's going down.
- 33:43Here's the monthly chart. Wait, am I, am I showing this
- 33:46one? Yeah.
- 33:48OK, here's the monthly chart. These are 12 month candles.
- 33:52So you can see this year the dollar has gone down.
- 33:56What is this, 10%? So if you are saving in dollars
- 34:02this year, your dollar has lost 10% of its purchasing power.
- 34:07It just they, they're telling you exactly what they want to
- 34:09do. Guys like it's not that
- 34:11complicated. There is a lot of noise going on
- 34:13here. When they announced the, the
- 34:16rate cuts, you know, it went down 1%.
- 34:19So literally in two days you've lost 1% of your purchasing power
- 34:22in the dollar. It's like the game is pretty
- 34:25obvious. They've been telling you guys
- 34:26this for, for all of this year. They're telling you exactly what
- 34:30they want to do. They want to lower interest
- 34:32rates. And the, the, the tricky part
- 34:34is, is that as the Trump administration is, they are
- 34:38Americans, so they have to kind of publicly come out and be
- 34:41like, yes, we want a strong dominant dollar.
- 34:44You know, we want those, we want to maintain the world reserve
- 34:46currency. We want a dominant dollar via
- 34:49all of their policies. They're doing the exact
- 34:52opposite. They need to devalue the
- 34:55purchasing power of the dollar. That's that's how they're able
- 34:58to kind of get out of the position that they're in, But
- 35:01they can't actually get out of that position.
- 35:03As Lynn Alden always says, as, as Larry Leopardo, he says
- 35:07nothing stops this train. The big print is coming.
- 35:11And they just admitted that that is happening.
- 35:13This is why I keep telling you guys, and This is why in the, I
- 35:17don't know, maybe like midway of the year, you guys saw me kind
- 35:19of dive a little deeper into the macro geopolitics because I
- 35:23think the war is happening in the economics right now.
- 35:27You got to remember, I always say, I don't know if I said it
- 35:30on air or off air, but I always like to look at business as an
- 35:35extension of war. You trade and you know, you, you
- 35:39do business with countries you kind of dislike.
- 35:43And this is how you kind of set up your dominance is by being
- 35:47economically strong. And then you finally get to
- 35:51kinetic war, to actual physical war once all that breaks down.
- 35:55And so the war is happening right now.
- 35:58I've been saying for a while, World War 3 has been happening
- 36:00for a while. It's an information war and it's
- 36:02an economic war. And if all those breakdown, then
- 36:05it will get into a kinetic war. But where we are right now is
- 36:09economics, economics, economics, economics.
- 36:12I know it's super boring, but it's all about money and power,
- 36:15guys. You got to remember it's all
- 36:16about money and power. You got to follow the money,
- 36:19follow what they've been saying, follow what they've been
- 36:21essentially doing. So they might say, hey, we want
- 36:24a strong dollar, but in reality, all the policies are doing the
- 36:27opposite. They're weakening the purchasing
- 36:29power of the dollar. They're down 10% on the dollar's
- 36:32purchasing power this year. It's, it's, it's obvious as ever
- 36:36they have to devalue the dollar. They have to add more liquidity
- 36:39to the system because they can't actually raise interest rates
- 36:43like they could, but it might blow things up.
- 36:45So you're seeing in Japan, they are just announced yesterday, I
- 36:49think it was yesterday that they're going to start raising
- 36:51interest rates. It it's going to get very
- 36:54interesting what's going on on the economic front and if you
- 36:57aren't positioned correctly now, maybe you have some time, maybe
- 37:02you have you know, 6 to 12 months, I don't know.
- 37:06Obviously this isn't going to happen overnight, but the trend
- 37:09and the theme is starting to evolve.
- 37:11You need to have assets. You need to be positioning
- 37:13yourself. You should be stacking with a
- 37:15fervor right now. You should be like Michael
- 37:17Saylor right now. Oh, actually I do have one more
- 37:20thing, one more interesting thing to kind of make my point
- 37:23where I'm not so fully convinced that it is a sale or JP Morgan
- 37:31that is suppressing Bitcoin because we saw this yesterday.
- 37:36Michael Saylor tweeted this. Oh, sorry, I don't have it up.
- 37:40Michael Saylor tweeted this yesterday and he just goes, hey,
- 37:45guys, guess the bank. You know, I, I, I don't know, I
- 37:49don't know New York real estate that, that well, but he's just
- 37:54teasing. Guess the bank.
- 37:55And then we had Grok and I think ChatGPT people, you know, Fact
- 38:00Check this picture. And it turns out, obviously this
- 38:03is speculative, but J Michael Saylor was probably at JP Morgan
- 38:08Chase yesterday, which kind of goes into the idea I've been
- 38:12telling you guys is I'm not convinced that JP Morgan really
- 38:17has the incentive to nuke Bitcoin.
- 38:21I think they're starting to position themselves.
- 38:23I, I, I am almost on the train that the JP Morgan strategy was
- 38:29key fob, that it was kind of like this choreographed
- 38:33wrestling, you know, event here where they go out, they kind of
- 38:37belittle strategy. They launch their products.
- 38:40Obviously JP Morgan hold strategy.
- 38:44I'm I'm just not convinced. So look, everything I'm seeing
- 38:48is yes, we do know Jane Jane Street high frequency trading
- 38:51desk is crashing the price at 10 AM.
- 38:55Well, we, we're not 100% confirmed, but it could be in
- 38:59conjunction with JP Morgan and BlackRock so that they can get a
- 39:02good position in Bitcoin. But I'm not that convinced that
- 39:05JP Morgan wants to see Sailor fail when Sailor is out there at
- 39:11the headquarters. He's been saying every big bank
- 39:13is talking to me. Look there, there's some
- 39:17shenanigans going on. OK, wait guys, I just realized
- 39:20I've been ranting for 40 minutes already.
- 39:22OK, So I got to move on a little bit on my point of the four year
- 39:27cycle being over. We got Kathy Wood, the wonderful
- 39:32Kathy Wood on CNBC. Was it CNBCI?
- 39:34Don't know. No, I think it was on Fox
- 39:36especially saying what I'm saying, the four year cycle is
- 39:39over. And then like I said earlier in
- 39:41the news, we got some new regulatory kind of confirmations
- 39:44coming out, some interesting stuff coming out of the CFTC and
- 39:47the OCC, which I've been covering for you guys yesterday.
- 39:51And then to wrap up the culture, we're we're just going to have a
- 39:54little fun. It's, you know, the 15th year
- 39:57anniversary since Satoshi left Bitcoin officially.
- 40:01So that's today's breakdown of the show.
- 40:04Before I go on, I do want to remind you to smash the like
- 40:07button comment on the show. Let me know what you think of
- 40:09the show. Let me know what you think about
- 40:10simply Opti. Should I just take over the show
- 40:12guy? I should just take over the
- 40:13show, huh? It it should just be me.
- 40:15We we don't need that other bum on the show and of course
- 40:19subscribe to our channel. We drop the most the best
- 40:23content. We are we're the best at this.
- 40:26All right, all right, all right. All right.
- 40:29Of course, also we wouldn't be here without our partner
- 40:33Bitcoin, well, our lead sponsor. If you are in the market, if you
- 40:37are trying to buy Bitcoin, you want to do it the right way.
- 40:40That's the right way in our opinion.
- 40:42You want to go to a Bitcoin only exchange that never holds your
- 40:45Bitcoin and Bitcoin wells the only exchange in North America.
- 40:49Yes, it is one more step. It is a little more complicated,
- 40:52but they have never lost Bitcoin.
- 40:54They will never lose Bitcoin because they never hold your
- 40:56Bitcoin. Once your dollars go through,
- 40:58once it clears and that's not their fault.
- 41:00You know the once the Swift system clears your money, then
- 41:04you get the Bitcoin directly into your cold storage.
- 41:07Yes, you will lock in your price when you send the dollars, but
- 41:10there might be a little delay because of the banking system.
- 41:13The banking system's archaic. All right, guys, so it goes
- 41:17straight into your cold storage. You do need a Bitcoin wallet
- 41:19when you sign up because they never hold your Bitcoin.
- 41:23They're never going to lose your Bitcoin.
- 41:24And actually, if we have time, I might cover we, we finally got
- 41:29some news from Daquan. You know, Lennon, Luna, Terra,
- 41:33that saga is finally behind us. And if you've been around for a
- 41:37while, there's been a lot of examples of exchanges that blew
- 41:41up because they didn't have your Bitcoin and some that literally
- 41:43had no Bitcoin and were selling you Bitcoin.
- 41:46That's never gonna happen with Bitcoin.
- 41:47Well, because the Bitcoin goes directly to you.
- 41:50All right, guys, first ad break. I'll be right back.
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- 43:12All right guys, we are back. The current Bitcoin price is
- 43:15$90,000, three hundred wait, $90,370 per Bitcoin, which is a
- 43:21-28.4% discount from all time high.
- 43:25The market cap barely holding on to $1.8 trillion and the only
- 43:30time that matters the real time the block height is 927,607.
- 43:37Put away the Gregorian calendar, we are block height Maxis.
- 43:41The world started in 2009 and we are currently at a time of
- 43:45927,607. All right, guys, here we go.
- 43:50As I was telling you, Kathy Wood went on Fox News.
- 43:54I believe this was 2 days ago. It's, it's been a lot of stuff
- 43:57covering, but I thought this might be fitting considering
- 44:01what I was telling you guys in the beginning of the show.
- 44:03So I'm just going to play that cause again, I, I ranted for 40
- 44:07minutes to start the show, which is absolutely crazy.
- 44:09So I'm going to play the clip and then I'll, I'll kind of add
- 44:11a little more to it. Bitcoin is behaving more like a
- 44:15risk on asset. It has played the risk off role
- 44:19at different times during the European sovereign debt crisis,
- 44:23during our regional bank crisis. But right now it's risk on we
- 44:28this is, it is climbing another wall of worry and that is the
- 44:33four year cycle. We think the four year cycle is
- 44:38is going to be disrupted. And what what I mean by that is
- 44:41Bitcoin regularly dropped 75 to 90% in its early days.
- 44:47The volatility is going down. It's down about 30 some odd
- 44:52percent. And I think there's a fear of
- 44:55the four year cycle. We think that it the move by
- 45:00institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much
- 45:05more of a decline. We may have seen the low a
- 45:08couple of weeks ago. All right, so two things.
- 45:12First off, the whole risk on idea.
- 45:16I think it's something that a lot of Bitcoiners and we don't
- 45:20talk about enough on the show. But the I think this is the the
- 45:24general case of where Bitcoin is currently right now in the
- 45:28movie. Obviously from a Bitcoiners
- 45:30perspective, we look at it as risk off because it's completely
- 45:34separate from the traditional financial system.
- 45:37It's a completely new asset class or a new money.
- 45:40It's completely different than what comes out of Wall Street or
- 45:44traditional financial products. It's it's totally outside of
- 45:47that world, hence why we like to look at it, or rather most of us
- 45:51consider it as a risk off because the real risk from our
- 45:54opinion is coming from the traditional financial system,
- 45:57the normal kind of status quo that is in our opinion, the
- 46:01risky thing to be holding. This is why we capitulate our
- 46:04dollars so quickly. But from and kind of evolving
- 46:10perspective of where Bitcoin currently is in the story all
- 46:13year long, Bitcoin has been acting as a risk on asset, which
- 46:17means that the the new investor, the institutional investor in
- 46:21Bitcoin Wall Street looks at Bitcoin still as basically like
- 46:25a high beta risk on asset, which is basically, you know, if you
- 46:31what's what's Larry Fink said he's like Bitcoin is a a
- 46:35currency of fear or an asset of fear or something like that.
- 46:38If you have fear in the traditional financial system,
- 46:41then that's why you buy Bitcoin. So as you can see, that's still
- 46:45kind of like a speculative angle there, because to them, they're
- 46:49so used to the traditional financial system that that is
- 46:52like the least risky thing to be holding.
- 46:54Of course, usually and historically that is U.S.
- 46:57Treasury holding government debt has been the least risky thing
- 47:00to hold for. Years.
- 47:02It's essentially I, I know the government's going to pay me
- 47:04interest on this, therefore I will hold that product and I
- 47:08know nothing's really going to change.
- 47:09Well, this year did kind of shake that traditional meme up.
- 47:14But from like a newer perspective from or rather from
- 47:18a Wall Street perspective, Bitcoin is still kind of highly
- 47:22correlated. As I said, like a high beta
- 47:24risky asset to hold. They still don't fully
- 47:27understand. Excuse me?
- 47:30They still don't fully understand it.
- 47:31They kind of look at it like, oh, it's a cute little
- 47:34speculative toy. Like Vanguard literally just
- 47:36came out this morning and said Bitcoin's just a digital toy.
- 47:39So they're still kind of like, oh, it's cute.
- 47:42It's like this evolving technology.
- 47:44I might want to hold a little bit of it, but it's not what we
- 47:48think of it as, where it's like, yo, I want to get my money out
- 47:51of the traditional financial system, out of Fiat as quickly
- 47:54as possible. The only thing I want to be
- 47:55holding is Bitcoin. Like Bitcoin is the finish line
- 47:59and they're still at the start of the race.
- 48:00They're still at the learning curve where it's like, Oh yeah,
- 48:03I probably want to put a little bit of My Portfolio.
- 48:05I'll get some gains on it. It's just a part of My Portfolio
- 48:08where to us we're like, it's the best money.
- 48:10You do not want to be holding anything in Tradfi because who
- 48:14knows what's going to happen with all the games they've been
- 48:16playing. I wouldn't want to be holding my
- 48:19entire wealth and stocks and equities and treasuries and Fiat
- 48:22when we know that they can manipulate it.
- 48:24So that's the first part. The second part is I like this
- 48:27idea of Bitcoin is climbing the wall of worry of the four year
- 48:31cycle, which is a a kind of a different way of framing what
- 48:35I've been saying. So shout out to Kathy Woods for
- 48:37that, because I think that is what's happening.
- 48:39Again, this climbing the wall of worry is like a Wall Street
- 48:43trading term where you know, you kind of you, you hit a low and
- 48:47then you climb this wall of fear where people keep thinking like,
- 48:50oh, it's never going to return. It's going to dump.
- 48:52This rally isn't real. And then once once everyone kind
- 48:56of starts to see that it's actually climbing up, that's
- 48:58when the FOMO starts happening. And I think this is what's
- 49:01happening amongst bitcoiners themselves.
- 49:04Like you guys saw, you know, Nico's on the show saying 04
- 49:06year cycles intact, though, if you, if we're being honest, and
- 49:10if you really logically think about what he was saying, he's
- 49:13like 4 year cycle still intact. But also 2025 was a red year and
- 49:16you're like, doesn't that mean the four year cycle is over?
- 49:19Bro? He's like, until I get more
- 49:21data, then I will be bullish. I'm like, bro, this is, This is
- 49:26why we're, we're climbing a wall of fear.
- 49:28But with all of the stuff. And I'm not the, I'm not a big
- 49:32institutional Bitcoin fan, but what I do understand is Bitcoin
- 49:38is for anyone. Bitcoin is for enemies.
- 49:41And as much as you might not like the banks, the banks have
- 49:45as much a right as you as an individual to get in Bitcoin.
- 49:48It's literally permissionless money.
- 49:50We can't stop them from doing it.
- 49:52And now they're here. And not only are they just here,
- 49:56they're chomping at the bits to acquire as much Bitcoin as
- 49:58possible. I'm like, yo, 2026 is not going
- 50:01to be the year that everyone thinks it is.
- 50:03And I think you know how I always joke about the Pareto
- 50:06principle. I, I, I don't have the math
- 50:09here. You know, you can't really
- 50:10quantify this math or maybe qualify this math.
- 50:14No, it's quantify can't really quantify this math, but it does
- 50:18feel like 80% of bit corners are still on the four year cycle
- 50:21meme. They're feeling kind of bearish
- 50:22right now. So I feel pretty good about the
- 50:24fact that I'm in like the 20% of bit corners that still think
- 50:282026 is probably going to be a bullish year.
- 50:32I'm I'm like I'm becoming more and more convinced as the year
- 50:35ends, but what do I know? I was wrong all of this year
- 50:38'cause I was still working off old kind of perspectives of what
- 50:41Bitcoin is doing. So I don't know, man.
- 50:44I, I think the four year cycle is done.
- 50:46Quant yeah, I'm your quant, bro. I'm not your quant Don't, don't,
- 50:52don't Hold on, hold on. Wait, wait.
- 50:54I wish I could zoom in. I wish I could zoom.
- 50:56This is not financial advice. Do not trade your life savings
- 51:00based on what I say. Take what I say do the research.
- 51:05And if you agree with me, then you go all in.
- 51:08That's not, that's not, this is not, this is not financial
- 51:13advice. I repeat, this is not financial
- 51:15advice. OK, OK, let's cover the news
- 51:18because I, I do, I, I got to, I got to kind of hurry up a little
- 51:23bit. I'll be right back after one
- 51:25more commercial break. I want to give a shout out to
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- 53:58All righty then guys, remember I just covered here.
- 54:02Let me, the CFTC has been, I think doing some, some pretty
- 54:07big moves here. They're, they're really in my
- 54:09opinion, kind of aligned with the digital asset working group.
- 54:14Obviously I played, we kind of got some, some, I wouldn't call
- 54:18it leaks, but we did kind of get a, a hint of where they were
- 54:22going about a week and a half ago.
- 54:24We had the SEC chair Paul Atkins come out and say like, OK, you
- 54:29know, the SEC and the CFTC are super aligned on approving what
- 54:34Donald Trump wants to do in Bitcoin or crypto at large.
- 54:38Couple days ago we mentioned that the CFTC basically came out
- 54:42and said yes, we will allow Bitcoin collateral products.
- 54:45They're going to do like a test pilot.
- 54:47And now today we get this, which again, I don't know what they're
- 54:52going to do afterwards, which I'm a little hesitant to fully
- 54:56endorse what their new kind of regulations going to be, but
- 54:59they officially announced the withdrawal of quote outdated
- 55:03digital assets guidance. So they're officially the old
- 55:07view of what Bitcoin and crypto is or digital assets are is is
- 55:11out of the window, effective immediately.
- 55:14And and now I'm sure we're going to get some kind of new rules of
- 55:17the road here. Hopefully it's a, it's a lot
- 55:20better for Bitcoin. Hopefully it it treats Bitcoin
- 55:22in its rightful place. Obviously, I don't think we're
- 55:25going to get that far because my opinion, Bitcoin is money, but I
- 55:29I don't think we'll get there overnight.
- 55:31Anyways, let's read this a little bit.
- 55:32So the CFTC acting chairman Caroline D Pham shouts at the
- 55:35Caroline D Pham. She's kind of fam.
- 55:39Today. Announced the CFTC is
- 55:42withdrawing outdated guidance related to actual delivery of
- 55:45quote virtual currencies, giving the substantial developments in
- 55:49crypto asset markets. It's kind of interesting, like
- 55:52what's the substantial developments in the crypto asset
- 55:55markets Just Trump embraces it and then a little more time.
- 55:59All right, bet anyways, quote eliminating outdated and overly
- 56:03complex guidance that penalizes the crypto industry and stifles
- 56:06innovation. Exactly what the administration
- 56:08has set out to do this year. Today's announcement shows that
- 56:11with decisive action, real progress can be made to protect
- 56:14Americans by promoting access to safe U.S. markets.
- 56:18The withdrawal of the guidance enabled to CFTC to continue it's
- 56:21ongoing work to implement the recommendations of the
- 56:24President's Working Group on Digital Asset Markets report.
- 56:27The CFTC will consider whether updated guidance or facts are
- 56:30appropriate and encourage the public to engage with feedback
- 56:33via the CFT CS crypto Sprint. So few things here, Obviously
- 56:37the, the part that I probably like the most is this, you know,
- 56:41eliminating outdated and quote overly complex guidance.
- 56:45Obviously, as I've been saying, you know, I'm, I've been holding
- 56:48my breath when it comes to the quote regulatory clarity around
- 56:52Bitcoin or crypto digital assets, whatever they want to
- 56:55call it, because it, it, it's most likely going to be overly
- 56:59complicated. Of course, you know, politicians
- 57:02are going to politicians, you know, their, their literal job
- 57:04is to make new laws forever making new laws.
- 57:08Whereas from my perspective, it's like, can we just like cut
- 57:11like a bulk of these laws out of the and just throw them out of
- 57:14the window and let Bitcoin run its money?
- 57:16So tentatively kind of bullish on this idea of eliminating
- 57:20outdated and overly complex guidance.
- 57:23Sounds good. Obviously, we haven't seen what
- 57:26they're going to most likely replace that with.
- 57:29They're not just throwing it out and not going to replace it with
- 57:32something. So that's just how it works.
- 57:34But what is interesting is that they are trying to implement the
- 57:38recommendation, the recommended, you know, regulation.
- 57:43Why is it doing that? Regulations, the recommended
- 57:46regulations from the Digital Assets Markets Working Group.
- 57:49And remember that came out earlier in the year.
- 57:52A lot of people were pretty bullish on it.
- 57:53There was some stuff that wasn't necessarily the most bullish.
- 57:56So I think if it does align more with what the Digital Assets
- 58:00Working Group report said, probably tentatively bullish,
- 58:05obviously no rules. Yeah, yeah.
- 58:07Down under against it. Cut the laws, just cut them out,
- 58:09dude. Bitcoin's money, let it run.
- 58:12That's that's my view. But hey, at least they admitted
- 58:16the old rules are out dead. The old rules are here to attack
- 58:19and hurt Bitcoin companies, Bitcoin in general.
- 58:23It's been obvious now, I think one year later, everything we've
- 58:27said on the show that there has been an active attack on
- 58:30Bitcoin. Now they're slashing those laws
- 58:33tentatively bullish all right. Now the second one, which is,
- 58:37you know, it's a little more specific, but I, I think it does
- 58:43kind of lead to a greater trend that we are seeing.
- 58:48So the OCC announces conditional approvals for five National
- 58:52Trust bank charter applications. And the only reason I'm bringing
- 58:56this up is obviously because of the company's that are in here.
- 59:01Wow, I didn't even see this one first.
- 59:03National Digital Currency Bank and Ripple National Trust Bank.
- 59:06Real RIP. Anyways, the OCC also
- 59:09conditionally approve applications to convert from a
- 59:12state Trust Company to a National Trust bank for Bitgo
- 59:15Bank and Trust National Association and Fidelity Digital
- 59:18Assets National Association and Paxos Trust Company National
- 59:23Association. So it looks like the OCC has
- 59:26just approved, you know, three, maybe 4 Bitcoin banks, official
- 59:32Bitcoin bank. So I guess I'll read a little
- 59:34more. The Office of the Comptroller of
- 59:36Currency, OCC, today announced its conditional approval 5
- 59:38National Trust bank charter application.
- 59:41Subject to meeting the OCS conditions, these institutions
- 59:44will join approximately 60 other National Trust banks currently
- 59:48supervised by the OCC and granting these conditional
- 59:52approvals. The OCC applied the same
- 59:54rigorous review and standards it applies to all Charter
- 59:56applications. The OCC carefully reviewed each
- 59:59application based on individual merits consistent with
- 1:00:02applicable statutory and regulatory factors.
- 1:00:04So interesting note about this for me is it seems like at least
- 1:00:10coming from the OCC. They're not having this
- 1:00:13political bias. They're, they're not basically
- 1:00:16saying that, oh, because you are in Bitcoin or digital assets.
- 1:00:20I, I hate using that word, but that's the word they're using.
- 1:00:23You're not going to penalize. So maybe this is a greater
- 1:00:26trend, at least in my opinion, of finally Bitcoin being looked
- 1:00:31at as money per SE. It's like, hey, you know, we're
- 1:00:34going to, we're going to allow some Bitcoin banks here.
- 1:00:37Does that mean that Bitcoin is soon to be viewed as money?
- 1:00:42I don't know. Obviously I'm seeing the news
- 1:00:44just like you are, but you're starting to see that, yes, maybe
- 1:00:49in terms of price, this was a lost year.
- 1:00:53I think we can all admit that. But again, I'm not the biggest
- 1:00:57like regulatory, regulatory, regulatory clarity guy.
- 1:01:03Personally, I just like cut them all, you know, like, hey, slash
- 1:01:06it all. Just treat Bitcoin as money, but
- 1:01:09it does seem like this year was a foundational building year.
- 1:01:13Obviously the institutions are coming in now.
- 1:01:16You can see maybe this is the, as Simon Dixon likes to call the
- 1:01:19financial industrial complex doing what it does, where, you
- 1:01:23know, finally the corporations are able to come in Bitcoin and
- 1:01:26then after the fact they're going to rewrite the laws so
- 1:01:29that, you know, they they actually can profit off of this,
- 1:01:32which is kind of just how things work.
- 1:01:35So tentatively kind of bullying. I, I'm, I'm really not that
- 1:01:39bullish on the Bitcoin bank part of it, but I think those two
- 1:01:42stories combined coming out of the very same day is showing you
- 1:01:46that the, the foundations are being built like we've
- 1:01:50fundamentally shifted from operation Choke .2 point O,
- 1:01:53though there is still some argument that we're starting to
- 1:01:56see like an operation 3 point O, you know, coming kind of being
- 1:02:00built out really in regards to privacy.
- 1:02:03But it does look like if there is kind of some favorable
- 1:02:08tailwinds here for Bitcoin coming from the institutional
- 1:02:11front, then maybe a lot of people will look at Bitcoin as
- 1:02:14something that they actually want to use.
- 1:02:16Now, obviously I'm like, OK, we're shifting the Overton
- 1:02:19window here. You were making some progress,
- 1:02:22but I want to break the Overton window.
- 1:02:24I'm like, slash all the laws treat it as money, You know,
- 1:02:28eliminated capital, capital gains on it.
- 1:02:32Let's start being able to use this thing how it how it was
- 1:02:35supposed to be used. Like get out of our way.
- 1:02:38You guys said you're going to get out of our way.
- 1:02:39Can we finally get a little freedom?
- 1:02:41Can can can I finally breathe here?
- 1:02:44Can can I finally breathe here? It's kind of my view on it.
- 1:02:47But actually, I wasn't going to bring this up, but did you guys
- 1:02:52see that that Trump, Trump announced yesterday that he is
- 1:02:57looking into eliminating capital gains taxes or taxes on
- 1:03:03gambling. And I trolled on I was trolling
- 1:03:06on Twitter. I'm like, look at this point,
- 1:03:08man, just call Bitcoin gambling and eliminate the taxes on it.
- 1:03:11And I'm all for it. Like, fuck it.
- 1:03:12You know, who cares at this point?
- 1:03:14Whatever, Whatever we got to do, Bros, whatever we got to do, I'm
- 1:03:19all for that. So if that goes through, maybe
- 1:03:23I'll, maybe I'll, maybe I'll go back on my word and be like,
- 1:03:25yeah, no, Bitcoin's totally gambling.
- 1:03:27Yeah, totally gambling, bro. Just eliminate the taxes on it,
- 1:03:31dude. Let's go.
- 1:03:33We'll see. Obviously I'm trolling.
- 1:03:35Wait, that's not going to play out like that.
- 1:03:37But I would, I would like, I'd hope it would.
- 1:03:39I would hope it would. OK, Yeah, yeah, Nameco gets it.
- 1:03:44And Nameco totally gets it. All right, guys, one more
- 1:03:46commercial and I will wrap up today's show.
- 1:03:48I'll be back in one minute. I want to give a shout out to
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- 1:05:50Alright, sorry guys, I did a little trolling.
- 1:05:53I did a little trolling during the break.
- 1:05:55Okay, a little trolling in the chat.
- 1:05:57We do we do a little trolling today it's Friday.
- 1:05:59Still a little trolling. All right, guys, I so literally
- 1:06:0415 years ago today, Satoshi Nakamoto made its final forum
- 1:06:08post on the fabled, you know, Bitcoin forum talk, wait,
- 1:06:13Bitcoin talk forum and then completely disappeared like
- 1:06:17it's, it's one of the greatest literally exits ever, one of the
- 1:06:21greatest Irish exits ever. You can see here last active
- 1:06:24December 13th, 2010 at 4:45 PM. Just the absolute goat, you
- 1:06:31know, says one final message completely disappears.
- 1:06:35And it really just goes to show like what Satoshi did, not only
- 1:06:42just with the tech, you know, not only with the software, not
- 1:06:45only just like ideating the idea of Bitcoin, just coming up with
- 1:06:51this idea of a, a money that is not controlled by anyone, a
- 1:06:56peer-to-peer electronic cash system.
- 1:07:01But just his final kind of masterstroke of what he did,
- 1:07:07where he maintained his anonymity.
- 1:07:11He kind of, you know, bootstrapped his system, built a
- 1:07:15community around it, kind of guided it through.
- 1:07:19It's like very infant stage. And then in 2010, he just
- 1:07:23absolutely ghosted, just absolutely left it and was like,
- 1:07:27look, it's not about me, the person.
- 1:07:30It's about the idea of Bitcoin. And here we are 15 years later.
- 1:07:35And look how far Bitcoin has come.
- 1:07:37And you know, one of the, one of the kind of crazier thoughts of
- 1:07:41this is when you understand, like Satoshi, though, he could
- 1:07:45have been on the, you know, behind the scenes doing stuff.
- 1:07:48There's, there's that very famous quote.
- 1:07:50He's like, I'm on the bigger and better things.
- 1:07:52I know there's speculation that maybe Satoshi is no longer with
- 1:07:55us, maybe he burnt the keys, etcetera.
- 1:07:58Maybe he's kind of sitting behind the scenes, you know,
- 1:08:01watching everything that's happening.
- 1:08:04It's just, it's just a stroke of brilliance to basically not only
- 1:08:08be anonymous because he knew if there was a head to chop off,
- 1:08:11obviously they would run him out as an example and it he would be
- 1:08:16a detriment to the idea to the software of Bitcoin.
- 1:08:20But the fact that, you know, Satoshi was really around for
- 1:08:24obviously the creation of it, but about a year, maybe 2 years,
- 1:08:30you know, something like that. And then Bitcoin has been
- 1:08:33running just on the power of people that fall into this idea
- 1:08:38that, you know, give up their own time to work on this because
- 1:08:42it's open source technology. It's open source software.
- 1:08:45It's like, you know, the the dabs do not get enough credit
- 1:08:49here. You you don't make money if you
- 1:08:50work on Bitcoin. Obviously now there is like open
- 1:08:54sets where they will, you know, raise funds and and, you know,
- 1:08:58give them to developers so that they can continue and maintain
- 1:09:00the work on this. But this whole thing, the whole
- 1:09:04Bitcoin project, the whole Bitcoin idea has been voluntary.
- 1:09:08No one's forcing you to get involved.
- 1:09:10There is no metaphorical gun to your head to buy Bitcoin, to
- 1:09:15work on Bitcoin, to advocate for Bitcoin there.
- 1:09:19There is no marketing team in Bitcoin.
- 1:09:22You are that. If you find interest in this, if
- 1:09:26you find value in what Bitcoin does, it's literally upon you,
- 1:09:29the individual to go out, find your kind of niche, find your
- 1:09:33role here and do your part to help Bitcoin succeed.
- 1:09:37Obviously, you need to save in Bitcoin.
- 1:09:40Obviously you need to store that Bitcoin, but none of us are here
- 1:09:46because, you know, like we're getting paid by the Bitcoin
- 1:09:50network. Yes, a business and an industry
- 1:09:53is being built up around Bitcoin and Bitcoiners are entrepreneurs
- 1:09:56and we want to see this succeed. And we all have families to
- 1:09:59feed. While I don't have a family to
- 1:10:01feed. I got to feed myself.
- 1:10:02You know, we all have mouth to feed here, but this is all
- 1:10:04voluntary. And it's, it's almost amazing
- 1:10:07that Bitcoin has been able to do this without Satoshi here at
- 1:10:12all. Like Satoshi was here at the
- 1:10:14very beginning and then he disappeared.
- 1:10:17And I know a lot of people look at at Bitcoin and they're like,
- 1:10:19well, we don't know who the creator was.
- 1:10:21Like, how can I trust this thing?
- 1:10:23And we're always like, dude, that's the beauty of this.
- 1:10:26There is no head to cut off. There is no, you know, single
- 1:10:30person to point at and be like, look how bad that person is.
- 1:10:34This is why you shouldn't use Bitcoin.
- 1:10:36Obviously, there's been all kinds of theories.
- 1:10:38It's like, oh, Bitcoins created by the CIA, It's created by the
- 1:10:41NSA, you know, it's created by a group of people.
- 1:10:44Oh, this is Satoshi. No one really knows.
- 1:10:48I think some O GS probably know. Look, hot take.
- 1:10:52I don't think it's a hot take, but I think there is some idea
- 1:10:55of who he is. But it's not about the man.
- 1:11:00It's about the idea whose time has come.
- 1:11:03It's about a a sovereign money that no one can control outside
- 1:11:06of government, outside of any particular nation state.
- 1:11:10Permissionless, censorship resistant money that you have to
- 1:11:14adopt yourself. You have to be curious to get
- 1:11:17into it. But Satoshi's been gone for 15
- 1:11:20years. The fact Bitcoin has gotten to
- 1:11:23where it has so far is a testament to every single one of
- 1:11:27us that are in Bitcoin. That save that took the risk of
- 1:11:30initially to put your life savings into it.
- 1:11:34That go out there on Twitter and battle the shit corners for
- 1:11:36years. That go out here on YouTube
- 1:11:38trying to get more people to get into Bitcoin, more people to
- 1:11:41understand what is going on in the world.
- 1:11:43More people to escape the potential slavery of UBICBDCS,
- 1:11:49of Fiat, of being indebted to unlimited debt that someone else
- 1:11:54can print for free. It's like guys, this is what
- 1:11:57it's all about. Shouts out to every single one
- 1:12:00of you guys. Shouts out to you guys that hang
- 1:12:01out with us in the chat. You know, we wouldn't be here
- 1:12:04without you guys. And when we started, we were
- 1:12:07just so obsessed with Bitcoin. We're like, yo, someone needs to
- 1:12:10make some good content for Bitcoin, like Bitcoin deserves
- 1:12:15some good content. More people need to hear why
- 1:12:18Bitcoin is important, why they need Bitcoin, how this is going
- 1:12:21to improve their lives. And here we are, you know, five
- 1:12:23years later, we're the most watched daily Bitcoin show.
- 1:12:28We built a business out of it. We we literally all survive off
- 1:12:31of this. And it's because you guys keep
- 1:12:33showing up. It's because you guys keep, you
- 1:12:35know, making us want to get better.
- 1:12:37It's because I, I, I sit here and I see what you guys say and
- 1:12:41I know you guys give me some crap sometimes I get it, I get
- 1:12:45them. I'm out here just playing the
- 1:12:46game, all right? Don't don't hate the player,
- 1:12:48hate the game, all right. And I try to figure out every
- 1:12:52single day, OK, how can I make a show so that people watch it on
- 1:12:57YouTube so that people that don't know what we are doing
- 1:13:00over here will click it and be like, OK, maybe these guys
- 1:13:04aren't crazy. Maybe I do need to save some in
- 1:13:06Bitcoin. Maybe there is something here.
- 1:13:09Maybe this can potentially change my life, save my loved
- 1:13:13ones. It's what it's all about.
- 1:13:15It's all about Bitcoin improving your life as an individual and
- 1:13:20then further you understanding what is going on in the world.
- 1:13:24What's the point of having all the knowledge in the world?
- 1:13:26What's the point of being right if you can also be successful
- 1:13:30and wealthy? Hot take.
- 1:13:34Maybe I don't know, I don't know, maybe not.
- 1:13:37Anyways, guys, it's the Friday show.
- 1:13:40It's the simply Opti show as Oh. Oh, yeah.
- 1:13:44Let me. OK, I'll do a faucet.
- 1:13:46I'll do it. It's Friday.
- 1:13:47Let me see. Let me see if if it's working on
- 1:13:50me. If it works for me.
- 1:13:51Let me see if it works for me first.
- 1:13:53OK. Am I, am I logged in on this
- 1:13:56computer? All right, guys, let's see.
- 1:13:58Let me see. Oh, OK.
- 1:14:03I sorry, I can't. I'm rug pulling.
- 1:14:04I'm rug pulling. It's it's sent a code to Nico.
- 1:14:06I don't, I don't have access to that e-mail.
- 1:14:10All right. Anyways, anyways, I lied.
- 1:14:12I lied. No SB faucet today.
- 1:14:15No SB faucet today, but I appreciate you guys.
- 1:14:19I love you guys. It's Friday.
- 1:14:23Have a good weekend, get some good food, get some exercise in,
- 1:14:27get some sun. Make sure you get the sun.
- 1:14:30Sun in the morning is the most important thing you can be
- 1:14:31doing. Anyways, I love you guys.
- 1:14:33I'll see you. I'll see you on Monday.
- 1:14:35On that note, peace out. Today's episode was brought to
- 1:14:39you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
- 1:14:43mission to enable financial independence.