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Understanding The Digital Age, Tech In The Pandemic · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
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  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well, one of the issues,
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  Speaker 1: or one of the topics that has really come to
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  Speaker 1: the four once again as a result of this pandemic
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  Speaker 1: has been the absolute central role of technology in all
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  Speaker 1: of our lives, the digital digitalization, if you will, of
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  Speaker 1: our everyday lives, if you think about working from home,
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  Speaker 1: schooling from home, it's just kind of really accelerated the
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  Speaker 1: embrace of digital technology, the upsides as well as the downsides.
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  Speaker 1: And it seemed like a great time check in with
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  Speaker 1: our net guest. Next guest Brett Smith. He's a president
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: of Microsoft and just today out with them, I guess
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the paperback version of his New York Times best selling
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: book entitled Tools and Weapons, The Promise and the Peril
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  Speaker 1: of the Digital Age. Brad, thanks so much for joining
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  Speaker 1: us here. It's really topical here, as I think you know,
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  Speaker 1: a lot of people are kind of rethinking the role
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  Speaker 1: of technology in their lives. What is kind of your
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  Speaker 1: takeaway over the last eighteen months of how maybe people use,
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  Speaker 1: interact and and think about technology. Well, things have changed
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  Speaker 1: so quickly. It's why my co author Caroline Brown and
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  Speaker 1: I added three new chapters to the paperback edition of
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  Speaker 1: the book, one of them to address the question you
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  Speaker 1: just ask, how have we seen the pandemic impact the
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  Speaker 1: use of technology and which of these changes are likely
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  Speaker 1: to really stick with us? And last and you know,
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  Speaker 1: we're certainly seeing you know, technology being put to use
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  Speaker 1: in a variety of new ways. It's creating more flexibility
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  Speaker 1: for us, um, the ability to see a doctor through
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  Speaker 1: a telehealth service, the ability of a sick child, perhaps
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  Speaker 1: to be able to stay connected to a classroom with
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  Speaker 1: with distance learning. Uh, they of so many of us,
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  Speaker 1: you know, to work in more flexible ways, including on
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  Speaker 1: the road or from home. But we've also seen other challenges.
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  Speaker 1: In part, we're seeing new cybersecurity attacks because this technology
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  Speaker 1: is so ubiquitous, UM. And in other ways, we're just
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  Speaker 1: seeing the digital divide almost exacerbated. It's as if people
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  Speaker 1: who lack broadband access are living in the nineteen nineties
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  Speaker 1: while the rest of us are living in the twenties.
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  Speaker 1: And that is a divide that is going to exacerbate
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  Speaker 1: every other divide in society if we don't move faster
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  Speaker 1: to address it. You know, over and over executives we
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  Speaker 1: speak to say they're really worried about the skills that
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  Speaker 1: this workforce has and whether it's ready for an environment
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  Speaker 1: where technology rains. You have been working through Microsoft and
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  Speaker 1: linked in to rescale and upscale people. Companies like JP
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  Speaker 1: Morgan have been working with cities to get more people
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  Speaker 1: into this workforce. Do you have a proscripection? Is there
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  Speaker 1: any cure you can see two people entering this workforce
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  Speaker 1: with skills that they need. Well, I do think there's
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  Speaker 1: a prescription, and I think it's going to take a
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  Speaker 1: societally wide commitment, UH to really put that prescription into action.
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  Speaker 1: And we and it's why we devote a lot of
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  Speaker 1: attention to this in our book, both as a specific
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  Speaker 1: topic around the tech talent gap for all of us,
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  Speaker 1: but also in specific areas like cybersecurity skills. We're seeing
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  Speaker 1: clear shortages, say of cybersecurity professionals and digital skills. More broadly,
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  Speaker 1: UM what it's going to take, I think, is for
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  Speaker 1: all of us to lean in UM, those of us
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  Speaker 1: in the tech sector. For a company like Microsoft and
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  Speaker 1: the linked In service that we operate, there's a tremendous opportunity.
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  Speaker 1: We're pursuing increasingly with nonprofits and others to use online
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  Speaker 1: learning to help fill the gap. But that's not going
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  Speaker 1: to be sufficient by itself. I think employers need to reinvest,
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  Speaker 1: increase our spending and the skilling of the people who
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  Speaker 1: work for us. I think we have a huge opportunity
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  Speaker 1: as a country to do more with community colleges UH,
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  Speaker 1: and that's one thing the White House is now focused on.
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  Speaker 1: The Congress and the Infrastructure Bill is addressing. UM. This
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  Speaker 1: is a moment where we can just create so many
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  Speaker 1: opportunities for more people, not by asking them to get
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  Speaker 1: a no new four year college degree, but take a
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  Speaker 1: course or two at a community college, or just spend
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  Speaker 1: more time as part of their work to add to
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  Speaker 1: their skill set. So, you know, Brad, cybersecurity is obviously
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  Speaker 1: it's a big issue, and I think when Microsoft itself
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  Speaker 1: UH was the subject of a hack in December, the
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  Speaker 1: Solar Winds attack, that really got people's attention if the gods,
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  Speaker 1: the smart folks and Microsoft are susceptible here, how about
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  Speaker 1: the rest of us? Here? Tell us what actually happened?
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  Speaker 1: And you know what was the response from Microsoft? Well,
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  Speaker 1: it's the first chapter now of the paperback edition of
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  Speaker 1: the book. Can we tell the inside story of really
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  Speaker 1: the cyberslew thing that it took not just at Microsoft,
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  Speaker 1: but some of the other really sophisticated cybersecurity firms like
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  Speaker 1: fire Eye to put the pieces together. You know, we
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  Speaker 1: now know that this was an attack launched by the
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  Speaker 1: Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency. It targeted major parts of the
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  Speaker 1: United States government, many tech companies. It targeted foreign companies
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  Speaker 1: and governments. Uh. And it was executed with great persistence, sophistication,
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  Speaker 1: and scale. It was based on a disruption of the
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  Speaker 1: software supply chain, planting malware into a legitimate company, Solar
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  Speaker 1: Winds and its product. UH. And you know what we
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  Speaker 1: then talk about are the lessons that we all need
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  Speaker 1: to take away from this. It starts with recognizing the
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  Speaker 1: sophistication and magnitude of the problem. It then leads to solutions.
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  Speaker 1: Some of these are I think really on our shoulders
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  Speaker 1: for a company like Microsoft, and we're increasing our investment,
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  Speaker 1: and we are and will do more to address this UM,
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  Speaker 1: but we all need to work together. There was a
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  Speaker 1: meeting at the White House two weeks ago. It brought
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  Speaker 1: together not just tech companies, but critical infrastructure companies and
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  Speaker 1: insurance companies and colleges and universities. UM. We're going to
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  Speaker 1: need to pursue more information sharing. UM. Companies like ours
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  Speaker 1: are going to need to report more to the government,
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  Speaker 1: and the government, as it has started, is now sharing
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  Speaker 1: more information across the government as a whole, so we
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  Speaker 1: don't end up with pieces of information trapped in these
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  Speaker 1: different information silos. Brad, what worries you most in the
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  Speaker 1: coming months. We've seen major hacks since solar winds. We
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  Speaker 1: hear of major things that could happen that can disrupt
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  Speaker 1: the entire economy. What are you concerned about in the
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  Speaker 1: coming months. Well, I think the biggest thing we should
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  Speaker 1: worry about is that will you look at this crisis
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  Speaker 1: and do too little to address it? Um? You know,
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  Speaker 1: people talk about, you know, will we face someday a
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  Speaker 1: digital pearl harbor or a digital nine eleven. Um. We
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  Speaker 1: have it, you know, in our ability to avoid that
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  Speaker 1: kind of day, but only if we heed these lessons
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  Speaker 1: and all work together. And you know this is not
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  Speaker 1: just for big tech companies or people in government. It
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  Speaker 1: means for every business deploying the in many cases cybersecurity
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  Speaker 1: protections they've already bought but haven't yet installed or used. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: It means for consumers that we turn on your two
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  Speaker 1: factor authentication and the like. So we all have a
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  Speaker 1: role we need to play. Hey, Brat, thank you so
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  Speaker 1: much for joining us. To really appreciate getting your thoughts
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  Speaker 1: and comments. Here Brad Smith, president of Microsoft, on his
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: updated content of his book entitled Tools and Weapons, The
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  Speaker 1: Promise and the Peril of the Digital Age, now out
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  Speaker 1: in paperback with three new chapters. So take a look
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  Speaker 1: at that. Well, here we are again, right after Labor Day,
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  Speaker 1: and so folks maybe coming back to work for the
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  Speaker 1: first time since the pandemic began. Certainly on Wall Street,
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  Speaker 1: there's a lot of talk of that being kind of
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  Speaker 1: a you know, a soft line in the sand, if
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  Speaker 1: you will, when a lot of the c was one
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  Speaker 1: of their folks back in the office at least temporarily.
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  Speaker 1: Let's get the latest update on that. Jenny Seraine, financial
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  Speaker 1: reporter for Bloomberg News, joins us on the phone from
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  Speaker 1: New York City. So, Jenny again, big big talk earlier
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  Speaker 1: in the year, How are the Wall Street firms delivering
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  Speaker 1: in terms of getting their folks back to work? Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: you know, I think honestly a lot of the biggest
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  Speaker 1: firms have brought a good majority of their workers back.
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  Speaker 1: And the thing is, it's just not the way they
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  Speaker 1: wanted it to be back. You know, people are in masks,
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  Speaker 1: there's no um, you know, no congregating and meeting rooms.
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  Speaker 1: It's just, um, maybe not the big fireworks and the
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  Speaker 1: big return to normal that a lot of these CEOs
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  Speaker 1: have been promising for so much of this year. Um,
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  Speaker 1: and that's been a big disappointment. And I think you've
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  Speaker 1: seen a lot of smaller firms actually just say, you
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  Speaker 1: know what, We're just gonna wait. We're gonna wait till
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  Speaker 1: we can go back without masks. We're gonna wait till
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  Speaker 1: we can go back without social distancing. UM. So you
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  Speaker 1: kind of see this, this growing divide. The divergence is
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  Speaker 1: also spectacular. You see Goldman Sachs bankers back in the
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  Speaker 1: office since you know, June or July. Really you see
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  Speaker 1: City Group having folks come in a couple of days
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  Speaker 1: a week. You see Morgan Stanley about fifty percent I've
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  Speaker 1: been hearing is back in the office compared to what
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  Speaker 1: across the financial services industry. Jenny even hinting record numbers
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  Speaker 1: without coming back. Why do they have to? I think
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  Speaker 1: so much of it is just these CEOs wanting their
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  Speaker 1: folks back. They seem to think that culture is really
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  Speaker 1: made in the office. Um. A lot of times they
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  Speaker 1: also point to like the junior bankers and the need
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  Speaker 1: for younger talent to have that in person mentoring and training. UM.
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  Speaker 1: So you just it's kind of a definitely a culture question. Um.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, we don't see that in other big industries.
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  Speaker 1: You don't see that in tech, you don't see that
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  Speaker 1: in autos. So it's definitely a very unique industry in
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  Speaker 1: ms of Wall Street just being really adamant that they
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  Speaker 1: want these folks back at their desks. You know remember
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  Speaker 1: Lloyd blank find years ago saying that Goldman Sachs is
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  Speaker 1: not a financial institution, it's a tech company. Um. And
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  Speaker 1: so I think about the workforces of Global Wall Street,
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  Speaker 1: a lot of them. I'm not sure what the percentage
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  Speaker 1: is about. A big, big percentage is our tech workers
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  Speaker 1: and the competitors for those workers are Google and Facebook.
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  Speaker 1: And if they're Google and Facebook are bringing their people back,
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  Speaker 1: I would think that Goldman, Sachs and Morgan Stanley that
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  Speaker 1: have a hard time bringing their tech workers back. What
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  Speaker 1: are you hearing? Yeah, that's actually absolutely true. What was
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: interesting was we Um. We interviewed Um, the person in
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  Speaker 1: charge of tech workers at City Group and their trading
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  Speaker 1: and investment banking divisions, and he actually was saying that
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  Speaker 1: because they're CEO, Jane Fraser has been so so adamant
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  Speaker 1: that she's going to be open to remote work and
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  Speaker 1: Um has really been softer stance on the whole return
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  Speaker 1: to office question that he's actually had way more success
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  Speaker 1: in hiring and recruiting more technology workers. So you definitely
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  Speaker 1: see the divergence, and you see these banks kind of
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  Speaker 1: thinking strategically now, like, can we, you know, get better
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  Speaker 1: talent because we can be a little softer than maybe
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  Speaker 1: the Goldman's or the JP Morgan's of the world. Jenny,
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  Speaker 1: is this forcing or at least compelling banks to be
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  Speaker 1: looking outside of New York for talent? Yeah, you know,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: that's actually a really interesting element of all this. They've
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: been very adamant that they want to move to places
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: like Texas and Florida. Um, partially because you know, their
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: workers want to live in those places, and partially because
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  Speaker 1: it's lower cost office space. UM. But now they're coming
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: up on the fact that those places have much lower
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: vaccination rates, and you know, trying to force folks back
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  Speaker 1: in in places where vaccine rates are so so low
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  Speaker 1: has created this very unique tension that these banks are
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  Speaker 1: having to work through and deal with. UM that you just, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: you don't really see that in other industries as much,
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  Speaker 1: where they've been a little bit more flexible about the
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: work from home life. What's been the pushback, if any
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: of the reaction from the workers themselves. Do they want
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: to be back in the office. If I'm a banker, trader,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: research analyst, I want to be back in the office. Yeah,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: it's I think it's diverging. UM. You know a lot
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: of traders, I think they are wanting to be back
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: in the office these days, simply because it's UM. What
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: we hear is that on slow trading days, people in
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: the office, you know, they make more trades. There's that
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: water cooler chat, and there's there's just a little bit
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: more activity on slower days when everybody's together. Um. That
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: being said, almost every survey that comes out says that
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: workers just want flexibility. You know, they want to work
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: from home a few days a week, they want to
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: be in the office a few days a week, and
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: they want to decide their schedules. Um. So it's it's
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: definitely Um, there's a big gulf in between what folks
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  Speaker 1: want and what you know ultimately might happen, given these
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: CEOs are aggressively wanting folks back. Um, but it's definitely interesting. Yeah,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: it really is. Will certainly stay on top of it
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: going forward because they are big, big customers of Bloomberg,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: very important to Bloomberg. Jennifer Seraine, financial reporter for Bloomberg News.
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  Speaker 1: Again her story Wall Street limps into post labor day
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  Speaker 1: return and it's derailed. I delta so really fascinating. Storian Shinale,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: you know what, as well as anybody you covered this beat,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: do you think it's just gonna be a gradual thing?
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: You know, it's a very it's a very tough time
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: on Wall Street. The question is do you get paid
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: more for coming in? Paul? Yeah, yeah, I know there's
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: definitely an issue. Uh, you know, if you can dine
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: in New York. I think, as Mr Gorman from Morgan
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Stanley said, if you can eat out in New York,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: you can certainly come into the office. Well, Friday's disappointing
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: jobs report for a lot of people suggest that it
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: will provide some air cover, if you will, for the
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: FED to delay tapering. UH talks to the end of
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: this year, maybe even into next year, and I might
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: provide some support for this market. Let's check in with
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Brian Vendig. He's president of m JP Wealth Advisors. Say
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: about seven fifty million dollars in assets under management located
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: in Westport, Connecticut. So, Brian, that seems to be the
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: narrative that we're hearing. And in the wake of that
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: job's report, is that something you supported. Do you think
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: the Fed now has some opportunity to maybe withhold on
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: some of that tapering at least for the short I
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: definitely think so. I think, uh the weekend jobs report
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: and also just the fact that you know, it seems
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: like UM it is taking longer for UM job recovery
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: to happen within the United States. I think just due
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: to the high productivity numbers investments that we've seen in
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: technology that companies have made, and now that UM we're
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: not seeing these these exceeding expectations on the jobs report,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: I think causes the SECT to want to be more patient,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: UH to wait till the next job's report to see
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: how the month of September goes, especially with schools reopening
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: and UH enhanced an extended unemployment benefits expiring UM, and
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: that as a result, it pushes back the tapering timeline
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: probably towards later on in the year or the beginning
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: of next year. I think investors were expecting that in
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: the September meeting UM those tapering announcements would start sooner,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: and as a result, UM, the fact that it's being
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: pushed out is providing some optimism from an ass evaluation.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: For Rector, the taper is such a big conversation here,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: but I don't think what's as flushed out is how
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: much is that taper going to set certain markets off
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the current course that they're on. I totally agree that
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: that's a very fair point. I think we're in this
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: very unique environment where we have a high level of
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: fiscal spending paired with monetary policy, and I think, really
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: what investors are more concerned about is the dot plot
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: with interest rates. I think the tapering is something that
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: probably should happen because there is a expanding GDP recovery.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: There are sectors that are coming back. Granted things are
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: taking a little bit longer due to the impacts of
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: of delta, as we've seen other institutions lowering GDP forecast
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: for the year. So I think tapering is a is
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: a situational predicament that we're in trying to get a
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: sense of where the feed is going to be going
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: for that longer term monetary policy decision, which is really
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: critical around interest rates. Alright, So given that background, brand,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: what are the sectors that you guys uh think present
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: the best opportunities right now? Sure, I mean we have
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: been trying to stay as fairly balanced between value versus growth,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: not trying to take one side of that argument, especially
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: because of rebalancing and things that are going on in
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: the global economy as we saw with inflation and interest
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: rate concerns. But then came back off a little bit
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: and now we're talking we're thinking about longer term interest
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: rates going up again over the next twelve months. So
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: we still like the cyclical side of the trade with
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: UM financials and basic materials and industrials and even real
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: estate paired with you know, sticking with some of those
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: technology companies that are just pervasive to our society. Idea
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: is helping us support data integration you know five G
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: you know, as well as UM software in the cloud
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: to run not only UH your business, but also just
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: to help the support running your life. And what are
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: you looking at in terms of the delta variant and
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: what what could derail some of the current pricing we've
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: seen in the market. How bad does it have to
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: be that will actually start to see it show up
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: in the stock market? You're you're right. I mean, the
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: market has been unbelievably resistant as different things have come
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: up over the course of trying to move forward from
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: the impact of the pandemic last year. But I think
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: the things that are important to keep in mind it's
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: more than just the variant story. I mean, technically, policy
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: mistakes both from the Fed and Washington could definitely disrupt
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: the market. We have to keep in mind that this
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: month and only is that a seasonally tough months to
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: the market, but we also have conversations happening in Washington
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: on taxes and additional spending with the said meeting. Um,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: we also know that there's other variants that are unfortunately
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: around the corner, and we need support obviously from from
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: science to continue to lead us out of this with
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: you know, a debate on boosters and then at a
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: lessons being able to get vaccinated. So I think it's
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: a combination of several variables that if they were all
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: to coalesce, you know, over the next couple of months,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: definitely can cause some investor concern as we move into
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: next year. However, I think the fact that decision makers
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: are trying to take a thoughtful and gradual approach. I
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: think our friends in Washington are going to come up
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: with uh, some agreements that aren't going to be as
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: drastic as what we've heard on the campaign trail for taxes.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: I think this will continue to help to support the markets.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: And also have to keep in mind that earnings has
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: been extremely solid for publicly traded companies and that looks
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: for next year with companies still trying to rebuild supply chains,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: getting through these labor shortages, these are all things that
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: still set up for I think still some more room
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: for growth. Brian just real quickly thirty seconds. Uh, bitcoin crypto,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: do your clients ask you about it? And if so,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: what do you say? Absolutely? It is it is something
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: that clients do ask us about. UM. We we try
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: to educate on different ways to get exposure to digital assets.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: You don't always have to you know, own the coin
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: per se. But I would just say right now, UM,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: I know there's some obviously some news coming out with
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: with countries adopting bitcoin as as a currency. We still
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: believe right now it's a it's a speculative investment. Uh.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: And and we're looking for more productive uses in society
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: moving forward. All right, Brian, thanks so much for joining us.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: To really appreciate you taking the time. Brian Vendig, he's
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: president m JP Wealth Advisors, getting his thoughts on these
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: markets here, so suggesting that still constructive on the markets broadly, uh,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: defined has some sectors there that are of interest, but
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: on bitcoin, stand a little bit cautious here, at least
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: at this early stage. This is Bloomberg. Well, we look
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: down to Washington. President Biden and his administration administration have
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: approximate four trillion dollars of spending bills oneing other ways
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: through Congress. We got the fiscal stimulus and then the
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: broader spending bill. Let's get the latest on when those
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: bills could be passed, will they be passed? To check
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: in with Eric Watson, congressional reporter for Bloomberg News, joining
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: us on the phone from Washington. So, Eric, we had
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: the fifty billion dollar infrastructure plan passed. Now there's this
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: other three and a half billion dollar spending bill. The
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: question for a lot of people is do they have
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: to be linked? Do they have to be passed jointly?
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: And if so, does that create a problem. Yeah, So
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the instruction bill, it's passed the stup, it's waiting final
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: approval in the House. Progressive the liberal part of the
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Cry Party have said that they would not support the
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: passage of that and they would re bail if they
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: do not get, you know, passage first of the three
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: point five trillion dollar social spending measure, which also has
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: tax increases on the wealthy incorporations. So they've made this link.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: There was a big battle in August where progressives lost
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: basically the moderates. Who's who got to guarantee from how
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: speaker to answer to policy? They would be a vote
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: by September. Come hell, or high water on the UH
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: Infrastructure bill. So right now, the committees this week are
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: working behind the scenes trying to get together on the
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: policy provisions, the exact languages, exact policies for that bigger bill.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: But it's it's it's a real uh, it's a real challenge,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: and I think the apple cart was a bit upset
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: by Joe Manson the Modern Senator last week. You said
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: we do a pause on that bigger bill, and that's
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: raising a lot of questions about all of this. Yeah,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: speaking of mansion as well, what are parts of this bill,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: the part of the three point five trillion dollar plan
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: they may not make it to see the letter day. Well,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: one thing know we've we've thought about is that they
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: could make a cut it down, you know, two or
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: three trillion dollars and probably get some moderate support. I mean,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: one thing you can do is is all the programs
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: in there, where it's home care for the elderly, for
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: child care, for for Medicaid expansion, Medicare expansion, you could
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: limit that in the number of years, creating sort of
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: a physical cliff. So you could give them five years
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: of that and say Congress to come back and extend it.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: You know, that could be a nerve wrecking thing for
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: some Democrats. On the other hand, whenever social programs are
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: expanded attentition Obamacare, they tended to become popular over time
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: and hard to to repeal. So that's one thing we're
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: looking at. But again, the other main message from the
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: White House, especially round claims why ship staff over the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: weekend is look, mansion is worried about adding the deficit,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: but if we follow these tax increases, it will be
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: fully paid for. So the real battlet is on the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: tax side. We've broken had a big scoop on the
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal last week about the menu of options that's increasing,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: not just from the corporate tax rate side and capital
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: games increases, but also just looking at a whole set
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: of new stock buyback taxes, other corporate CEO excess pay
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: taxes that they might turn to to pay for this measure.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: All right, Eric, who's really driving the bus here in
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: terms of getting this thing done? Is a Pelosi? Is
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: it Schumer? Is it President Biden? Or is it perhaps
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the other side of the aisle. I think at the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: end of the day, you have to say Pelosi is
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: a key figure in this she set this deadline is
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: the goal of September. They'll be up to her or
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: try to meet that, and uh and if you can't
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: can't meet that, to figure out a way to finesse it.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: I think that you know, Schumer and Biden certainly have
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: encouraged and tried to get turns to move as quickly
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: as possible, But it's really Uh Pelosi who sent these deadlines.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: So you know, if they can't, if they can't meet that,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: she's gonna have to figure out how that works out.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Do you think that the markets are underestimating how messy
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: this fall season might get when it comes to the
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: aid that's coming out of Washington. I think they're underestimating,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: perhaps on the dead ceiling. You know, you get to
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: see any plan. Additional in addition to these two big
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: bills we talked about is also the need to send
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the government which runs out of its physically. You're at
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the end of this month, and they related issue of
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: the dead ceiling. You know it's going to impact probably
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: in October or maybe even November, when the government will
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: default on its payment. There's no real plan yet to
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: pass that. You know, Republicans that Democrats have do it
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: on their own. Democrats are not going to use the
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: budget reconciliation process for that. They're gonna try to get
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Republicans on board. We had a scoop last week about
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: the White House meeting with Democrats coming up with messaging
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: to blame Republicans. This is gonna be very messing, indeed,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: and I've yet to see, even with only a few
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: session days less in September, how they're gonna bring this up.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: That kind of goes to my question here, it's September
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: seventh already, Air, What are the dates that we should
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: really be focusing on here? Well, the Senate will come back,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: uh next Monday night, and I think on the sport
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: team there's gonna be a caucus wide meeting of Senate Democrats.
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: We're gonna make some decisions. I'm sold on the spending
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: bill and the dead ceiling, etcetera. So we're really looking
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: at that day. The week following that is when the
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: ask hims back for votes. Are they going to really
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: bring be able to bring this big bill to the
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: floor then to meet this twenty seventh deadline they worked
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: for that weekend. Those are gonna beet the some key dates.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: But as of right now that both chambers are officially uh,
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: there's no floor action there in research all right, Eric,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for that. It's an ongoing story
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: and we'll stay on top of that. We'll check back
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: in with you, Eric to get some of the latest.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Eric Watson, Congressional reporter for Bloomberg News, just giving the
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: update on again the bigger spending bill, the three and
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: a half trillion dollar bill and then the course of
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: five billion dollar UH infrastructure bill UH winding their ways
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: through both chambers of Congress and hopefully as a speaker,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Pelosi has suggested get something done by the end of September.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: And Shannale your question spot on what's the market discounting? Yeah,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: and other things are expiring, expanded unemployment benefits, student loan moratoriums.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: That's a big one everyone's watching for the end of September. Evictions.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter
• 26:11
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• 26:15
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• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.