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The Inflation Pivot: CPI Countdown and Earnings Kickoff · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning everyone !
• 0:02
  This is your host , Sunny SideUp , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:06
  It's 6 am on Sunday , July 5th , 2026 , here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:12
  I hope you all had a fantastic Independence Day weekend filled with fireworks , family , and maybe a little too much potato salad .
• 0:20
  But now it is time to shake off that holiday fog because the market is waking up , and we have a very pivotal week ahead of us .
• 0:28
  We are entering a moment where the longstalled inflation victory might finally be within reach .
• 0:34
  The big news this week is the June Consumer Price Index report coming out this Wednesday , July 8th .
• 0:41
  Inflation has been hovering around 2.8 percent , but the market is looking for a print closer to 2.4 percent .
• 0:49
  If we get that , it could justify a rate cut in September .
• 0:54
  We have already seen the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF , also known as TLT , experiencing some volatility as yields on the 10year Treasury stay near 4.2 percent .
• 1:06
  A cool report would likely cause a rally in TLT and the iShares Core U.S.
• 1:11
  Aggregate Bond ETF , or AGG .
• 1:14
  In the tech sector , things are shifting .
• 1:17
  NVIDIA recently announced that their Rubin architecture delivery is ahead of pace , which has been great for the Invesco QQQ Trust .
• 1:26
  However , software giants like Microsoft have been under pressure because investors are questioning their AI capital expenditure efficiency .
• 1:35
  This is leading some people to move their money out of pure tech and into broader value sectors .
• 1:40
  We also have the start of earnings season to look forward to .
• 1:44
  This Thursday , Delta Air Lines will report , which serves as a test for consumer spending .
• 1:50
  We will also hear from PepsiCo on Thursday to see if shoppers are pushing back against price hikes .
• 1:57
  Then on Friday , the big banks like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo report .
• 2:02
  With the yield curve finally uninverting , we expect net interest margins to show some real improvement , which is great news for the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLF .
• 2:14
  Even Real Estate is looking up , with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF , VNQ , outperforming lately as refinancing risks stabilize .
• 2:25
  Looking at the charts , the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , our favorite SPY , is sitting just 1.5 percent below its alltime high .
• 2:35
  A soft inflation print on Wednesday could trigger a major breakout .
• 2:39
  So , what are the moves for this week ?
• 2:42
  If you are an aggressive investor , focus on the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLK .
• 2:50
  While hardware has led the way , softwareheavy names like Salesforce and Oracle are starting to show actual ROI from AI , making them a great entry point on any midweek dips .
• 3:01
  For those looking for income , the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF , is a solid value play ahead of JPMorgan's earnings on Friday .
• 3:11
  If you want to be defensive , look toward the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF , or VEA .
• 3:19
  Since U.S.
• 3:19
  valuations are a bit high , diversifying into European and Japanese markets can help protect you from midterm election noise .
• 3:28
  I also recommend holding a bit of the SPDR Gold Shares , GLD , as a hedge against any inflation surprises or geopolitical risks .
• 3:37
  Finally , for a simple core holding , the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , remains the best way to capture a potential market breakout .
• 3:49
  Expect a slow start on Monday and Tuesday , high volatility on Wednesday , and sentimentdriven trading to close out the week .
• 3:57
  Stay sharp and happy trading !