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Early Breakdowns & New Hires | NFL Conference Championships · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
0:13
Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back
0:17
Speaker 1: at it with my peoples. The first Lady of the pod,
0:20
Speaker 1: Kendra Middleton, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey, whose
0:25
Speaker 1: college football season just ended. On today's episode, We've got
0:29
Speaker 1: our plant the Flag game for the conference championship games,
0:32
Speaker 1: Kendra's Deepest Darkest thoughts, and Evans Tuesday primer. You can't
0:37
Speaker 1: start a betting week without it. Only three games left, Kendra?
0:42
Speaker 1: Is it time to rejoice or is it time to cry?
0:48
Speaker 2: I thought that I was going to be excited to
0:50
Speaker 2: get a break and for the weather to get warmer
0:52
Speaker 2: and everything. But last week, when there was no football
0:56
Speaker 2: on like the normal prime time slots, I got really sad.
0:59
Speaker 2: So I'm going to go with sad just because I
1:01
Speaker 2: do miss football when it's not on, But I also
1:04
Speaker 2: miss the routine of football when it's not on.
1:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, then to agree with that, I miss the full slates.
1:11
Speaker 1: We've got two great games left and then a two
1:15
Speaker 1: week build up for what will hopefully be a game
1:18
Speaker 1: that doesn't involve Jared Steadham or any backup quarterback action stucky?
1:22
Speaker 1: What about you? How do you reconcile with this time
1:25
Speaker 1: of year? Any emotions flowing through that noggin?
1:30
Speaker 3: I mean it isn't it's stunning to watch like a
1:34
Speaker 3: national title just one football game. The commercials are just incessant. Yeah,
1:41
Speaker 3: especially because you used to watching like a million games once.
1:44
Speaker 3: But it's it's college basketball season for me, so it's
1:50
Speaker 3: I'll have that feeling in April. So I just kind
1:56
Speaker 3: of shift my Like the preparation now for football games
2:00
Speaker 3: is so much easier, so I just take all that
2:04
Speaker 3: time dedicated to college basketball. But really we're looking into
2:09
Speaker 3: just four teams now there's no college football, so that's in.
2:13
Speaker 4: The rear view mirror.
2:13
Speaker 3: And I in one of the games this weekend is
2:19
Speaker 3: just like there's not much. There's not a ton to
2:24
Speaker 3: break down, Like you just have to make a decision
2:28
Speaker 3: on if you want to bet the Patriots Broncos game, Like,
2:33
Speaker 3: what do you think the drop off is from Nicks
2:38
Speaker 3: to Stidham, who hasn't played in a game in seven
2:41
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty days. If you think it's too much,
2:44
Speaker 3: you bet in the Broncos. If you don't think it's
2:46
Speaker 3: enough you'll probably bet the Patriots, and that's kind of
2:51
Speaker 3: the decision point. It's not like you're going and breaking
2:54
Speaker 3: down what the Broncos offense look like with Stidham this year.
2:58
Speaker 3: There's just nothing, So that one isn't like there's not
3:02
Speaker 3: a lot of time to be spent on that game.
3:04
Speaker 3: Seahawks rams pretty interesting being that it is the third meeting.
3:11
Speaker 3: We'll be talking about both those games a lot. But yeah,
3:15
Speaker 3: I just I now allocate most of my time out
3:20
Speaker 3: of college basketball, so I will plug big Bets on
3:23
Speaker 3: Campus Podcast. I will be making my return this week
3:27
Speaker 3: later this week breaking down the weekend card. We have
3:31
Speaker 3: live shows coming up either starting this week or next.
3:34
Speaker 3: So yeah, I won't have that like that void feeling
3:40
Speaker 3: until after the college basketball National Championship.
3:44
Speaker 1: For people that are wanting to add college basketball to
3:47
Speaker 1: their repertoire this time of year, since we are a
3:50
Speaker 1: couple of months away from March, is now the time
3:53
Speaker 1: to hop in. If you have not bet any college
3:55
Speaker 1: basketball yet or are you too are you already too
3:59
Speaker 1: late to the party to really have any idea of
4:01
Speaker 1: what's going on.
4:03
Speaker 3: I mean, I always tell people that if you wanted to, like,
4:07
Speaker 3: if you if you're just like starting from scratch, and
4:11
Speaker 3: the college basketball market is much tougher to beat. I
4:13
Speaker 3: mean every year it gets tougher to be, like like
4:16
Speaker 3: all markets, but especially in college basketball. I think it
4:18
Speaker 3: was like exponentially easier to beat five years ago. The
4:21
Speaker 3: tax on certain spots and just the market is just
4:25
Speaker 3: smarter overall. But I always tell people, just like, look,
4:29
Speaker 3: there's you think there's a lot of teams in college football,
4:33
Speaker 3: there are triple that in college basketball. So I always
4:40
Speaker 3: tell people if you're like just diving in, you know,
4:43
Speaker 3: and if you're just doing it recreationally for fun, who
4:45
Speaker 3: cares just at the TV games, But if you want
4:48
Speaker 3: to like just try and get an edge or try
4:53
Speaker 3: and handicap these games, like just focus on one conference.
4:57
Speaker 3: Much easier to do than trying to like stare at
5:00
Speaker 3: a board and follow every single team like I try
5:05
Speaker 3: to do most people.
5:06
Speaker 4: You know, you have a job, you don't have time
5:08
Speaker 4: to do that.
5:08
Speaker 3: But just take one conference, follow it very closely, the
5:12
Speaker 3: ebbs and flows of teams, who's been who's been getting
5:15
Speaker 3: lucky injuries, and you kind of just get a feel
5:18
Speaker 3: for teams. And if you just focus on one conference
5:21
Speaker 3: and you know there might be even more opportunities for
5:24
Speaker 3: some of the lower level conferences, although those might not
5:27
Speaker 3: be the most appetizing for people.
5:29
Speaker 4: To choose, But that's what that's That would be my suggestion.
5:32
Speaker 3: Or you know, follow someone that you find is that
5:37
Speaker 3: you know gets free picks, that has a good track record,
5:41
Speaker 3: and follow along, but you want to be in it
5:43
Speaker 3: for a long haul. There's good it's a grind and
5:46
Speaker 3: there's going to be horrible beats, like college basketball is
5:49
Speaker 3: the the beats are just incredible, so you have to
5:54
Speaker 3: be able to stomach them move on quickly. But that
5:57
Speaker 3: would be my my advice for everyone, and into big
6:00
Speaker 3: bets on campus week our weekend previews.
6:03
Speaker 4: We'll talk futures every week.
6:05
Speaker 3: Myself, I think my guy Route is going to be
6:08
Speaker 3: doing them with me as well, who's super sharp. But
6:10
Speaker 3: there's a lot of resources out there too, so yeah,
6:15
Speaker 3: just tune into the podcast.
6:16
Speaker 4: More to come there.
6:18
Speaker 1: I'm excited to get raked over the Coles during March Madness,
6:21
Speaker 1: but definitely pay attention to everything Stuck He's got going
6:24
Speaker 1: on there. One more thought on the amateur level, Kendra,
6:27
Speaker 1: did you ever think we'd see a day where Indiana
6:31
Speaker 1: would be hoisting a national championship before. I mean fit
6:35
Speaker 1: in your favorite NFL team here, the Cleveland Browns. I
6:39
Speaker 1: never thought i'd see this in my life. Here we
6:41
Speaker 1: are deserving champion before several of the only thirty two
6:46
Speaker 1: NFL teams have ever hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
6:50
Speaker 2: I can't say that I'm surprised, because I feel like
6:53
Speaker 2: in college, if you're really dedicated to spending the money now,
6:57
Speaker 2: you can kind of put together any kind of team
6:59
Speaker 2: that you want. Yes, they got lucky not having I
7:01
Speaker 2: wouldn't say lucky. They worked very hard and had very
7:04
Speaker 2: good game plans, but lucky in the sense that not
7:06
Speaker 2: having a single five star recruit paid off for them
7:09
Speaker 2: with that ability to have the underdog mentality. But I
7:12
Speaker 2: have to say it was a way better game than
7:14
Speaker 2: I thought it would be. I'll give Miami their flowers. However,
7:17
Speaker 2: I have seen some tweets flying today and I'm not
7:20
Speaker 2: sure if they're real or not, And if they are,
7:22
Speaker 2: I'm very disappointed. Apparently Carson Beck did not shake Mendoza's
7:27
Speaker 2: hand after the game. Is this true, Stucky?
7:30
Speaker 3: I don't know to tell you the truth. I know
7:33
Speaker 3: that Fletcher got a lot of shit for the I
7:37
Speaker 3: think he threw like a punch, but he saw that
7:41
Speaker 3: embraced him, which is good to say. But I don't know.
7:46
Speaker 3: I didn't see. I didn't see any of the handshakes.
7:52
Speaker 3: After I got I officially became a parent. After the game,
7:57
Speaker 3: I got pooped on for the first time changing a
8:01
Speaker 3: diaper like a whoa. My wife's usually the diaper changer.
8:05
Speaker 3: I wasn't ready for that.
8:07
Speaker 1: It's one of the things people don't tell you when
8:09
Speaker 1: you have a kid, is the sludge that comes out
8:12
Speaker 1: of these kids. It's the weirdest thing.
8:14
Speaker 2: It's thank you for my free birth control today boys now,
8:19
Speaker 2: INDI I think that what Indiana obviously kind of.
8:24
Speaker 3: It's a symbol of the changing landscape in college football.
8:31
Speaker 2: Right.
8:32
Speaker 4: This is a sport that's.
8:33
Speaker 3: Been dominated by a handful of teams every year for
8:40
Speaker 3: a decade since the college football playoff started. And now
8:46
Speaker 3: you know, with everyone being able to pay, and you
8:51
Speaker 3: don't just have these teams that are your perennial powers,
8:55
Speaker 3: there's going to be opportunities for other teams to rise up.
8:57
Speaker 3: I mean, look at a team like vander Built. You
9:01
Speaker 3: know they were a perennial basement bottom feeder and now
9:08
Speaker 3: you know, they were right on the doorstep of making
9:10
Speaker 3: the college fotball playoff. You have Indiana, I mean, one
9:13
Speaker 3: of the most losingest programs in collegeable history now winning
9:18
Speaker 3: a national title. I mean, unfathomable if you would have
9:21
Speaker 3: said that five years ago. So I think it's good
9:25
Speaker 3: for the sport. The sport still has some things to
9:28
Speaker 3: figure out as far as regulating all of this and
9:31
Speaker 3: maybe fixing the calendar a bit, but I think that
9:36
Speaker 3: it's it's kind of fitting that it was a you know,
9:40
Speaker 3: a team like Indiana in this new college football world
9:43
Speaker 3: and then applying it to the NFL. It's you know,
9:48
Speaker 3: we saw this year the impact of new coaches and
9:54
Speaker 3: how much of an impact they can have on a team,
9:59
Speaker 3: and just one season and we're gonna, you know, we're
10:03
Speaker 3: going into a crazy coaching cycle. I think the NFC
10:06
Speaker 3: North is the only division without a coaching change. Don't
10:11
Speaker 3: quote me on that, Hevan, can you check that real quick.
10:15
Speaker 3: But so there's a ton of coaching changes, but we
10:18
Speaker 3: saw this past year. So we'll see which teams are gonna,
10:22
Speaker 3: you know, really benefit from those coaching changes. But we
10:25
Speaker 3: just saw this past year. Ben Johnson had the Bears on,
10:31
Speaker 3: you know, the doorstep of an NFC championship game. Look
10:35
Speaker 3: at the Seahawks the one seed and what McDonald has
10:37
Speaker 3: done there with that defense. We saw the Jags with
10:41
Speaker 3: Liam Cohen, the impact of him leaving Tampa go into Jacksonville.
10:45
Speaker 3: So there's countless examples of the impact that coaching and
10:50
Speaker 3: you know, you can go down to coordinators as well,
10:52
Speaker 3: can have on a football team. And Signetti is, you know,
10:57
Speaker 3: the the poster child for that. There's Signetty. Sure what
11:01
Speaker 3: a job he's done. But yeah, I think that it's
11:04
Speaker 3: kind of the year of coaching and we have some
11:08
Speaker 3: really good coaches left in the NFL plaufs. I mean
11:11
Speaker 3: McVeigh McDonald is you know, that's that's football porn. And
11:18
Speaker 3: you can go back the first meeting, McDonald dominated and
11:24
Speaker 3: which is funny because McDonald dominated McVeigh in the first meeting,
11:28
Speaker 3: but the Rams won, and then McVeigh dominated McDonald in
11:35
Speaker 3: the second meeting.
11:37
Speaker 4: And the Seahawks won. You can even go back to Baltimore.
11:42
Speaker 3: M McVeigh dominated McDonald in when the Rams went to
11:46
Speaker 3: Baltimore and Baltimore at the number one defense, but the
11:50
Speaker 3: Baltimore won in overtime. So interesting to note, but that
11:55
Speaker 3: is like football porn. McDonald verus mcvayh. And what makes
12:00
Speaker 3: that tough to break down is you know that they're
12:06
Speaker 3: like McVeigh is a tendency breaker right in high leverage games,
12:10
Speaker 3: so he'll come up with something that you know that
12:13
Speaker 3: McDonald's not going to be expecting. And I mean, you
12:16
Speaker 3: look at the two meetings this year. They had their
12:19
Speaker 3: first meeting where they didn't have much success, to the
12:23
Speaker 3: second meeting they completely flipped their use of thirteen personnel.
12:27
Speaker 3: And that was one of the things late in the
12:28
Speaker 3: season that was just something that no teams could match
12:32
Speaker 3: up with the three tight ends on the field. They
12:35
Speaker 3: didn't have a ton of success against Seattle as much
12:38
Speaker 3: as relative to other teams, but they had success in
12:40
Speaker 3: that second meeting even though Seattle is built to stop
12:44
Speaker 3: thirteen personnel because of Nick and Emon Moorey, and they
12:47
Speaker 3: ran at Emon Worrey. One of the things they really
12:48
Speaker 3: did well in that second meeting, they just ran right
12:50
Speaker 3: at them. But then last week McVeigh abandoned thirteen personnel
12:56
Speaker 3: went back to his roots of eleven personnel. I don't
12:59
Speaker 3: know why, I mean, the Bears are one of the
13:00
Speaker 3: worst defenses in the league.
13:02
Speaker 1: I would think it was rather related, but.
13:05
Speaker 3: Like you would want to go heavier personnel, more tight
13:08
Speaker 3: ends and run at the Bears. I mean, the Bears
13:09
Speaker 3: are the worst bid that the highest exposive play rate
13:13
Speaker 3: allowed of any defense against thirteen personnel. So I don't
13:18
Speaker 3: know if that was to throw off the Seahawks a bit.
13:26
Speaker 3: I don't know, But I just don't know what I'm
13:28
Speaker 3: what to expect from McVeigh. But I do know that
13:31
Speaker 3: you can probably expect a curveball formationwise, so.
13:35
Speaker 4: I'm looking forward to that.
13:37
Speaker 3: And McDonald came out and said, because they gave up
13:40
Speaker 3: five hundred and eighty one yards, I'm rambling, by the way,
13:43
Speaker 3: but they gave up five hundred and eighty one yards
13:45
Speaker 3: in Week sixteen to the Rams who didn't have Donson,
13:48
Speaker 3: didn't have Adams, and that was on a short week,
13:51
Speaker 3: and the Seahawks were completely healthy outside of their left
13:54
Speaker 3: tackle who might miss this game too. But McDonald came
13:57
Speaker 3: out and said, we tried too many new things on
14:00
Speaker 3: a short week, so what are his adjustments because they
14:05
Speaker 3: were kind of lost in that game. So super interesting game.
14:08
Speaker 3: I'm really looking forward to the coaching matchup in that game.
14:10
Speaker 3: That's a long wind answer and saying long winded way
14:13
Speaker 3: of saying, Sig did a great job.
14:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, go Hoosiers. I don't know if you guys can
14:18
Speaker 1: tell which game Stucky is more excited about ram Seahawks
14:21
Speaker 1: or Patriots Broncos. The coaching clinic between those two on
14:27
Speaker 1: the NFC side is going to be great. That was
14:29
Speaker 1: one of the things I'm glad you brought up coaching.
14:31
Speaker 1: I do want to get to a couple of the
14:33
Speaker 1: new hires, but I was looking at the commonalities between
14:37
Speaker 1: the four teams that are still in the race, and
14:41
Speaker 1: solid quarterback play is of course always going to be
14:44
Speaker 1: part of it, and that kind of gets thrown out
14:45
Speaker 1: the window because we have a stidham game defense. All
14:49
Speaker 1: these teams ranked top eleven and EPA pri play and coaching,
14:53
Speaker 1: those are the two most common factors that I could find.
14:57
Speaker 1: These teams are kind of all over the place when
14:59
Speaker 1: you look at things like third down conversion percentage, how
15:02
Speaker 1: good are they in the red zone, how good are
15:03
Speaker 1: they defending the red zone all the how good are
15:06
Speaker 1: they in terms of running the ball. These teams are
15:09
Speaker 1: kind of all over the board, But in terms of
15:12
Speaker 1: what do they have in common defense and coaching? Is
15:16
Speaker 1: there anything else, Kendra, off the top of your head
15:18
Speaker 1: that you think I'm missing as far as key traits
15:22
Speaker 1: that all four teams have that are still on the hunt.
15:27
Speaker 2: That's a good question that I wasn't prepared for you
15:29
Speaker 2: to ask me. I'm gonna I'm gonna say I don't
15:34
Speaker 2: think so. The only thing that I really kind of
15:38
Speaker 2: am looking at outside of everything that stuck you just
15:40
Speaker 2: kind of mentioned and that you mentioned Matt Stafford and
15:43
Speaker 2: McVeigh having the experience piece is kind of the way
15:48
Speaker 2: that I'm approaching that game. I know that a lot
15:50
Speaker 2: of people are gonna look at defense. I know a
15:51
Speaker 2: lot of people are gonna look at who's injured. I
15:53
Speaker 2: think the experience piece is the biggest part about it,
15:56
Speaker 2: which is another reason we can talk about it later.
15:58
Speaker 2: Like that, I'm looking at maybe the Broncos as well
16:01
Speaker 2: because of Sean Payton.
16:04
Speaker 3: So I would also say that Sean, I mean I
16:09
Speaker 3: mentioned coaching. I'm excited about coaching that game, but I'm
16:11
Speaker 3: also excited about what Peyton will.
16:15
Speaker 4: Come up with here.
16:16
Speaker 3: Right, he has a blank slate with no tendencies like
16:22
Speaker 3: there's the Patriots don't aren't going to know what to expect, although,
16:26
Speaker 3: which makes what makes that game really interesting. Peyton hand
16:30
Speaker 3: picked Sidham I think for a reason. He obviously saw
16:34
Speaker 3: something that he liked and he was I think it
16:37
Speaker 3: was his first signing, his first free agent signing after
16:39
Speaker 3: he got to Denver. But McDaniels also knows Sidham very
16:45
Speaker 3: well right that draft, he was with them in New England,
16:48
Speaker 3: went with him to to Vegas, so there that he
16:51
Speaker 3: knows his strengths and weaknesses. So how does that play?
16:54
Speaker 2: And Bo and Jarrett have known each other forever because
16:56
Speaker 2: of Auburn.
16:58
Speaker 3: Yep, so so that that's that's certainly interesting. And I
17:02
Speaker 3: will say the we we still don't know exactly like
17:09
Speaker 3: where to I still I'm not fully confident in how
17:13
Speaker 3: good the Patriots are and we're going in the conference
17:16
Speaker 3: championship weekend. I mean they haven't They've played backup quarterbacks,
17:21
Speaker 3: hurt offenses or backup quarterbacks all year and that and
17:24
Speaker 3: what happened in the playoffs. They played you know, a
17:26
Speaker 3: team without a two Pro Bowl tackles and a hurt backfield,
17:31
Speaker 3: and you know, then they played the Texans who didn't
17:34
Speaker 3: have their starting right tackle, they lost their starting tight
17:36
Speaker 3: end in the first quarter, they lost, they didn't have
17:39
Speaker 3: their starting wide receiver, their top wide receiver, one of
17:41
Speaker 3: the best in the NFL. But then then this week
17:44
Speaker 3: they're gonna get stit them. And then the other thing
17:46
Speaker 3: is they haven't played. Their schedule of opposing defenses was
17:50
Speaker 3: also a joke. They've played like no top ten defenses
17:52
Speaker 3: the entire year outside of the Browns, and the Browns
17:55
Speaker 3: on the road aren't the same defense. And then they
17:58
Speaker 3: finally faced two top five defenses, and Drake May has
18:02
Speaker 3: six fumbles and two interceptions and has not looked great.
18:05
Speaker 3: I mean, his EPA per play is right there with
18:06
Speaker 3: Stroud for the playoffs. So can the Denver defense cause
18:12
Speaker 3: the New England offense to have some of the same
18:15
Speaker 3: issues and cause turnovers. If so, you know, then they
18:20
Speaker 3: might not have to hit a huge number, especially if
18:22
Speaker 3: their defense can give him a short field or even
18:24
Speaker 3: put a score up on the board. So but I'm
18:27
Speaker 3: excited to see what Peyton draws up and see how
18:31
Speaker 3: he's generally a really good, really good coach against the Blitz.
18:35
Speaker 3: And that's what the Patriots have been doing lately. I
18:37
Speaker 3: mean they blitzed the last four weeks forty three, forty
18:40
Speaker 3: four percent, forty five percent. That's how they're generating pressure.
18:44
Speaker 3: Stroud's really bad against the blitz The Chargers had no
18:46
Speaker 3: offensive line. The thing that Stidham that's going for him
18:49
Speaker 3: this week is his offensive line. He's one of, if
18:52
Speaker 3: not the best offensive lines in the NFL, So that
18:56
Speaker 3: that's huge for a backup, right, like just a good,
18:58
Speaker 3: good play caller and a really good offensive line. We'll
19:01
Speaker 3: see the situation at center. Wattenberg might be back, forsythe
19:04
Speaker 3: got hurt, he might be ready, we'll see. But having
19:07
Speaker 3: a really good offensive line at home Denver's not an
19:10
Speaker 3: easy place to play at also, But that's huge because
19:13
Speaker 3: you go back he started two games in twenty twenty
19:15
Speaker 3: three with the Broncos. That Broncos offensive line is horrible.
19:19
Speaker 3: They were thirty first in pressure allowed twenty twenty two
19:22
Speaker 3: Raiders and both those offenses were bad like twenty six
19:25
Speaker 3: DVA twenty fifth y VA twenty twenty two Raiders. They
19:28
Speaker 3: were twenty sixth in pressure allowed. This Broncos offensive line
19:31
Speaker 3: is one of the best in terms of pressure allowed,
19:34
Speaker 3: so that should be a big step and just like
19:38
Speaker 3: an area of comfort for Stidham, and I'd expect the
19:42
Speaker 3: pitchers aren't gonna be able to get a ton of pressure
19:43
Speaker 3: without blitzing. So what does Peyton's answer to that blitz like?
19:46
Speaker 3: What does his screen game look like? That's what I'm
19:48
Speaker 3: looking forward to there.
19:49
Speaker 1: Before we get back into the games, we were talking
19:52
Speaker 1: about coaching and how impactful these new coaches can be.
19:55
Speaker 1: We had some big time coaching movement across the league
19:57
Speaker 1: since the last time we spoke. Robert to the Titans,
20:01
Speaker 1: Kevin Stefanski to the Atlanta Falcons. Sean McDermott has been
20:04
Speaker 1: fired in Buffalo, half Ley hired in Miami. Kendra your
20:09
Speaker 1: favorite and least favorite move so far, So it can
20:13
Speaker 1: be a hiring, a firing, any of the above.
20:16
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say my least favorite is Robert Sali going
20:20
Speaker 2: to the Titans. You can't convince me that their feud
20:24
Speaker 2: and them hating each other did not fuel the Titans
20:27
Speaker 2: wanting to get him because it's an easy get up
20:29
Speaker 2: spot twice a season for both teams now, and if
20:32
Speaker 2: you think about it in the long term, who else
20:35
Speaker 2: is there to hate in the division? Indianapolis is going
20:38
Speaker 2: to suck. The Texans are now struggling with their CJ.
20:40
Speaker 2: Stroud situation. Wanting to hate the Jags and beat the
20:43
Speaker 2: Jags is probably the number one thing that you want
20:46
Speaker 2: to consider when hiring someone right now. So I hate
20:50
Speaker 2: that I have to cheer against him twice a season
20:52
Speaker 2: now and maybe even three times a season considering how
20:55
Speaker 2: often we are seeing these divisional matchups in the postseason.
20:59
Speaker 2: And my favorite can I say that it has to
21:03
Speaker 2: be McDermott, just because of the fact that his resume
21:08
Speaker 2: and his like win percentage is really kind of laughable
21:11
Speaker 2: and it was just an expense. How is the GM surviving?
21:14
Speaker 2: How are they just not blowing everything up and starting over.
21:18
Speaker 1: It is kind of funny how time is a flat circle.
21:21
Speaker 1: Because I've and I've seen others reference this that John
21:26
Speaker 1: Elway very similar stylistically to Josh Allen, and you know,
21:33
Speaker 1: it's a guy that really struggled to win as good
21:35
Speaker 1: as he was early on in his career, and Dan
21:37
Speaker 1: Reeves was his coach. They moved off of him, hired
21:39
Speaker 1: Mike Shanahan, and then he started winning Super Bowls And
21:43
Speaker 1: there's this and that. By the way, that documentary is
21:46
Speaker 1: out right now on one of the many streaming services
21:49
Speaker 1: that's out there, and so people are reliving that and
21:51
Speaker 1: then we're also living that in the moment when and
21:55
Speaker 1: maybe that's what happens here is I think Sean McDermott,
22:00
Speaker 1: like Dan Reeves, was a good coach, but they needed
22:03
Speaker 1: a shakeup, they needed to do something different. I'm curious
22:06
Speaker 1: to see what direction they go in here, Stucky, any
22:09
Speaker 1: thoughts on those two?
22:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think it was time for McDermott,
22:13
Speaker 3: But I mean, what about being like that the roster
22:15
Speaker 3: construction has been so poor for the Bills.
22:17
Speaker 2: Like, and they're like promoting him allegedly as well.
22:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't get that, But I do think McDermott's
22:27
Speaker 3: a good go. I think McDermot would be a great
22:29
Speaker 3: defensive coordinator somewhere. But my I mean, my my least
22:36
Speaker 3: favorite is probably Halfway. Like you're bringing him in to Miami,
22:42
Speaker 3: which needs a rebuild, and like Halfley's only head coaching
22:45
Speaker 3: experience was at Boston College.
22:47
Speaker 2: Like, I.
22:48
Speaker 3: Don't know if that's necessarily the best hire, but shocker,
22:52
Speaker 3: the Dolphins make a move that doesn't make sense.
22:55
Speaker 1: And goo on that one. The fact that all I'm
22:58
Speaker 1: hearing is he he's a culture guy. Like that's that's
23:03
Speaker 1: like saying the girl that you started dating is a
23:05
Speaker 1: good personality. That just means that she's probably she's probably ugly,
23:10
Speaker 1: and that's how it feels here.
23:12
Speaker 3: And then what my favorite is by far As Stefanski.
23:17
Speaker 3: I do think he's a good coach. I think he's
23:19
Speaker 3: a good offensive mind. I mean, look, this is the guy.
23:22
Speaker 3: He just got a roll a deal. You're in Cleveland
23:24
Speaker 3: with the Watson contract and it's Cleveland and he still
23:28
Speaker 3: won what Coach of the Year twice, But just going
23:33
Speaker 3: from Raheem Morris to Stefanski I think is a huge upgrade.
23:36
Speaker 3: I mean, Morris and that coaching staff was just so
23:41
Speaker 3: incompetent in so many different ways. And the Falcons have pieces.
23:47
Speaker 3: I mean, you know about their talent on offense, there's
23:51
Speaker 3: talent for days that the skill positions. The offensive line
23:55
Speaker 3: is solid. And then we saw the defense this year
23:58
Speaker 3: take a major step forward because they were able to
24:01
Speaker 3: address their lack of edge rush and pressure in the
24:06
Speaker 3: draft and they finally had a defense that could get pressure.
24:09
Speaker 3: And then you know, you have some exciting other pieces.
24:13
Speaker 3: Bowman Watts looks like a you know future all Pro.
24:18
Speaker 3: So that's an exciting team in a division that just
24:24
Speaker 3: like can you imagine at the Falcons like they didn't.
24:28
Speaker 3: I mean they finished tied for first and they lost
24:30
Speaker 3: like three or four, four maybe five games. They should
24:34
Speaker 3: have won that division is so gettable if they just
24:37
Speaker 3: had like a competent coaching staff and special teams. And
24:42
Speaker 3: I think that they fixed the first one. I mean
24:44
Speaker 3: that team wins eleven games this year and they would
24:49
Speaker 3: not have been an easy out in the playoffs. So
24:53
Speaker 3: I think that was a really good hire by Blank.
24:58
Speaker 1: We are about to hand out some action able advice
25:00
Speaker 1: for this weekend's games in the NFL Plant the Flag
25:03
Speaker 1: games coming up, But first a word from our very
25:06
Speaker 1: own Kendra Middleton.
25:08
Speaker 2: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sports book and
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Speaker 2: in partnership with DraftKings, our listeners are getting a great
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25:42
Speaker 1: All right, Kendra? Before we plant the flag, we've got
25:45
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams joining us as well for his weekly primer
25:49
Speaker 1: What is on your mind today?
25:51
Speaker 3: What Sells?
26:02
Speaker 2: So we've been talking about coaching and it's obviously the
26:04
Speaker 2: biggest kind of storyline this week, especially with the McDermott
26:08
Speaker 2: news and all of the hirings and everything going on.
26:11
Speaker 2: Which if you Dinsky winds up going to the Browns Rip,
26:15
Speaker 2: if you'd rather go to Cleveland than be with Trevor,
26:18
Speaker 2: Lawrence and Jacksonville see a pizza? However, would you this
26:22
Speaker 2: has been really bothering me because of the McDermott thing
26:25
Speaker 2: and everybody else. Would you rather be fire? What would
26:29
Speaker 2: be worse or better on your mental health? Being fired
26:32
Speaker 2: for sucking or being fired as a scapegoat? Because I
26:36
Speaker 2: really don't know what I would. I've been sitting here
26:39
Speaker 2: and I'm like it would really suck to be fired
26:42
Speaker 2: for sucking, but also like how mad I would be
26:45
Speaker 2: just getting fired so somebody else can be protected for
26:48
Speaker 2: like whether it's politics or whatever. The fuck. I don't
26:51
Speaker 2: know what I would hate more, and it honestly kind
26:54
Speaker 2: of stresses me out a lot to think about, which
26:56
Speaker 2: is I.
26:57
Speaker 1: Think I'd rather I would rather be fired as a scapegoat,
27:01
Speaker 1: because if you suck, that's got to ding the confidence
27:07
Speaker 1: more than anything else. At least you can move forward,
27:09
Speaker 1: find another job and feel like you are competent in
27:13
Speaker 1: the field that you're in. If you get fired because
27:15
Speaker 1: you suck, you have a lot of reevaluation that you've
27:19
Speaker 1: got to take into account.
27:21
Speaker 2: But sometimes I don't know if people know they suck,
27:24
Speaker 2: So it's like ignorance is bliss. And that's the part
27:26
Speaker 2: of it that I argue with myself about, is like
27:28
Speaker 2: I feel like so many people just don't know that
27:31
Speaker 2: they suck.
27:32
Speaker 1: They blame for those for those people, and they would
27:35
Speaker 1: never answer it this way because they don't know they suck.
27:37
Speaker 1: So it's kind of like real endless loop here. Those
27:40
Speaker 1: people should they should want to get fired because they suck,
27:44
Speaker 1: because then they can have an awakening and that's a
27:46
Speaker 1: beautiful thing to have. So you know, perhaps I don't know.
27:49
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm even changing my answer. Maybe I'm worse at
27:51
Speaker 1: certain jobs than I realize, and I should be let go.
27:55
Speaker 1: Don't talk to the action overlords about this. But yeah,
27:58
Speaker 1: maybe that's the way to look, because there's no self
28:01
Speaker 1: evaluation if you get fired as a scapegoat.
28:04
Speaker 4: So I don't know.
28:06
Speaker 1: I think I think I may have changed my answer. Well,
28:09
Speaker 1: you studies as I talk myself into many circles here.
28:13
Speaker 3: I don't even know what you're saying, but I it
28:16
Speaker 3: kind of reminds me of like the better than average effect.
28:20
Speaker 3: Like seventy percent of people I think somewhere around there
28:24
Speaker 3: think that they have higher than average intelligence. So shoutut
28:29
Speaker 3: to those thirty percent that just know that they're not smart.
28:33
Speaker 4: Amen.
28:34
Speaker 2: So uh, I don't know about fuck.
28:38
Speaker 3: So yeah, but I think I I think I agree
28:43
Speaker 3: with your first take, Brandon, for.
28:46
Speaker 1: Us, before I started talking, you started sliding then the
28:51
Speaker 1: slot into vapid nothingness.
28:53
Speaker 2: This is how I get to these places though, as
28:55
Speaker 2: I just like talk myself into the depths of hell.
28:59
Speaker 1: That's the thing, you know, you gotta you have to
29:01
Speaker 1: take into account both sides here. So you know, I
29:04
Speaker 1: immediately dismissed the fired because you suck thing. But there's
29:08
Speaker 1: there's at least merit to that. I think if you're
29:10
Speaker 1: someone that lacks self awareness, that could be a beneficial
29:14
Speaker 1: thing for you to then be able to grab hold
29:17
Speaker 1: of what reality actually is. Is that a more succinct
29:21
Speaker 1: version of what we're looking for here? I'll take it
29:24
Speaker 1: all right, Winter Winter chicken dinner. Let's plant the flag
29:27
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
29:33
Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
29:36
Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planting your flag in that thic. We
29:38
Speaker 1: have two games to choose from, but thank you to
29:42
Speaker 1: the sports books like Draft Kings that are out there
29:44
Speaker 1: that give us an endless buffet of things to choose from.
29:49
Speaker 1: I'll go ahead and get us started today because I'm
29:51
Speaker 1: gonna choose from the derivative buffet. Patriots Broncos first half
29:55
Speaker 1: under will be where I plant my flag. I have
29:58
Speaker 1: not bet a side for these games yet, so I
30:01
Speaker 1: had to look off the board a little bit. Under
30:04
Speaker 1: twenty and a half is the number that I'm looking
30:06
Speaker 1: at here. I just can't imagine that this is going
30:08
Speaker 1: to be an aggressively played game by either coach, especially
30:12
Speaker 1: early on. Vrabel has to know that he can park
30:15
Speaker 1: the bus for four quarters, don't let the Broncos defense
30:18
Speaker 1: create momentum with turnovers like we've seen in some of
30:20
Speaker 1: these other games, and eventually just banking on the fact
30:24
Speaker 1: that Stidham is going to fold. On that same line
30:27
Speaker 1: of thinking, the Broncos are likely going to struggle to
30:30
Speaker 1: score period because of their quarterback play. Even with bow Knicks,
30:33
Speaker 1: they ranked sixteenth in the NFL in terms of first
30:36
Speaker 1: half points per game. Eleven point four is what they
30:39
Speaker 1: were averaging with a better quarterback, and the Patriots defense
30:43
Speaker 1: has been lights out so far in the playoffs, averaging
30:47
Speaker 1: under ten points per game in the postseason so far.
30:49
Speaker 1: Denver's defense obviously elite first in sacks, second yards allowed,
30:54
Speaker 1: and all of those things. So I think we're going
30:55
Speaker 1: to see an insane effort from the Broncos defensively and
30:58
Speaker 1: a really low scoring game out of the gate between
31:02
Speaker 1: these two Patriots. Broncos under twenty and a half is
31:05
Speaker 1: my plant the flag. Kendra.
31:08
Speaker 2: We kind of talked about it a little bit on Sunday,
31:10
Speaker 2: and then Stucky has talked a little bit about it today,
31:12
Speaker 2: but my thought process is definitely just that the Patriots
31:17
Speaker 2: played a really tough defense for the first time last week.
31:19
Speaker 2: Drake May has had some fumble problems this postseason. The
31:22
Speaker 2: Broncos defense not that much of a drop off from
31:24
Speaker 2: the Texans in my opinion, I think that if they
31:26
Speaker 2: can disturb Drake May from the beginning, the Broncos have
31:29
Speaker 2: a shot at covering this five and a half. I also,
31:31
Speaker 2: like I said, love the experience piece of Sean Payton.
31:34
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be prepared. I think Jarrett's
31:35
Speaker 2: going to be prepared, and I almost kind of think
31:38
Speaker 2: that I always prefer these situations where it's that cornered
31:42
Speaker 2: cap mentality. The Broncos kind of know that they have
31:46
Speaker 2: nothing in everything to play for at the same time,
31:48
Speaker 2: which I think, I agree with what Stucky said on Sunday,
31:50
Speaker 2: just takes so much pressure off of them and puts
31:52
Speaker 2: it all back on New England. And historically, like I
31:55
Speaker 2: mentioned Sunday, New England does not play well in Denver
31:59
Speaker 2: in the postseason and it's a really tough place to play.
32:02
Speaker 2: So I don't think that the five and a half
32:03
Speaker 2: is going to get any better. I think if anything,
32:05
Speaker 2: it's gonna get worse. So take a five and a
32:07
Speaker 2: half on dropkings while you can get it. I did
32:08
Speaker 2: it this morning. That's where I'm at.
32:11
Speaker 1: Stuck.
32:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Broncos too. I'm kind
32:15
Speaker 3: of it looks like it's coming down. I might play
32:17
Speaker 3: for five and a half. I was waiting to see
32:18
Speaker 3: if we get six six and a half. I just
32:20
Speaker 3: wasn't sure where the market was going to go with this.
32:23
Speaker 3: But I you know, I mean, like we just saw
32:27
Speaker 3: the Broncos close as what one and a half point
32:30
Speaker 3: favorites over the Bills. The Bills are power and higher
32:32
Speaker 3: than the Patriots in market. I think the Bills are
32:35
Speaker 3: an overall better team and I can't I can't make
32:39
Speaker 3: the adjustment from Nicks. I mean, you mentioned like their
32:42
Speaker 3: offense like fourteenth in points per game in first Their
32:44
Speaker 3: passing offense I think is like fourteenth or fifteenth. Dvoa
32:47
Speaker 3: like Nix is like an average quarterback who has like
32:50
Speaker 3: above average flashes, but he's not elite. He's not in
32:53
Speaker 3: the elite tier. I can't make this drop off seven points.
32:59
Speaker 3: That's crazy. And again, the Patriots going on the road.
33:01
Speaker 3: Denver is not an easy place to play for an
33:05
Speaker 3: inexperienced quarterback. I mean, especially in January. I mean that
33:10
Speaker 3: the Broncos have only been home dogs in January five
33:13
Speaker 3: times in the past twenty five years. They've covered all
33:15
Speaker 3: five games, including twice in the playoffs. They beat the
33:17
Speaker 3: Patriots and they won a seven to that point dogs
33:19
Speaker 3: with Tim Tebow as the quarterback over the Steelers a
33:24
Speaker 3: bit ago. Peyton elite as a dog sixty one forty
33:28
Speaker 3: two and two fifty nine percent, sixty seven percent.
33:31
Speaker 4: Against the spreadman catching over a.
33:33
Speaker 3: Field goal, and I just think that a lot of
33:37
Speaker 3: the intangibles are working in Denver's favor. You have, you're
33:41
Speaker 3: at home, you have nothing to lose. All of the
33:45
Speaker 3: pressure is on the Patriots now, and they don't have
33:49
Speaker 3: film on your tendencies, and I think that that uncertainty
33:53
Speaker 3: can work in their favor if they can just put
33:55
Speaker 3: a couple of drives together and score in the red
33:57
Speaker 3: zone against the defense that's one of the worst in
34:00
Speaker 3: the league defending in the redsidt Before last week, they
34:03
Speaker 3: were getting up touchdowns on ninety five percent of goal
34:07
Speaker 3: to go drives ninety five percent. I don't think they
34:11
Speaker 3: faced forced a field goal in the regular season in
34:13
Speaker 3: a goal to go situation, so they finish off a
34:16
Speaker 3: couple of the drives you're able to put together, surprise
34:19
Speaker 3: him early, get the screen game going. Like this Patriots team.
34:24
Speaker 3: I mean last week they looked awful and Stroud was
34:28
Speaker 3: just that much worse. And they didn't even look great
34:31
Speaker 3: against the Chargers. It just Herbert was so bad. And
34:35
Speaker 3: the schedule you can't not talk about it. It's the
34:38
Speaker 3: easiest schedule we've seen in twenty five years, and then
34:40
Speaker 3: you could argue it's one of the easiest in playoff history.
34:44
Speaker 3: So yeah, I and look, if you look at Stidham,
34:47
Speaker 3: as I mentioned before, we only had two starts, it
34:50
Speaker 3: could be a complete disaster. It could, but I actually
34:53
Speaker 3: don't think he's that bad. I think he's like one
34:54
Speaker 3: of the better backups in the league. There's a reason
34:58
Speaker 3: why Peyton went and targeted him. But like he started
35:02
Speaker 3: two games with the Broncos, two games with the Raiders,
35:03
Speaker 3: those were horrendous offenses with horrendous offensive lines, and he
35:08
Speaker 3: was able to put a really good performance against a
35:09
Speaker 3: good forty nine Ers defense where he threw for nearly
35:11
Speaker 3: four hundred yards, and like I said, he's playing behind
35:14
Speaker 3: an elite offensive line, that he has an elite play call,
35:18
Speaker 3: he's playing at home. And then you have this Patriots
35:21
Speaker 3: team that their offensive line is a problem. I mean
35:26
Speaker 3: Will Campbell is a problem. Yeah, you have Nick Benito
35:30
Speaker 3: who can fully take advantage and the Patriots. Not only
35:34
Speaker 3: have the Patriots had a really easy schedule, they've been
35:37
Speaker 3: extremely lucky.
35:38
Speaker 4: I've mentioned this spot.
35:39
Speaker 3: During the regular season, they re covered seventy three percent
35:41
Speaker 3: of their fumbles. They were covered twelve of their twenty
35:47
Speaker 3: fumbles and of their own fumbles and ten of their
35:51
Speaker 3: opponents fourteen fumbles. So they were extremely lucky in fumbles.
35:55
Speaker 3: And guess what that percentage is held in the postseason.
35:58
Speaker 3: They've been really lucky with fumbles. Go back to last
36:00
Speaker 3: week and fumble comms. Fourth downs, they were seventy three
36:04
Speaker 3: percent on fourth downs, their opponents thirty three percent. And
36:10
Speaker 3: again this is against one of the easiest schedules in
36:12
Speaker 3: the league. And then so far in the playoffs they're
36:14
Speaker 3: sixty seven percent on fourth downs their opponents are forty.
36:17
Speaker 3: So don't be shocked if you know there's a couple bounces,
36:20
Speaker 3: a couple fourth downs that go Denver's way, but I
36:24
Speaker 3: would argue that Denver has a massive advantage in the
36:27
Speaker 3: trenches on both sides of the ball, and they're playing
36:31
Speaker 3: at home, and I just can't get to this number.
36:34
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm going to plan my flag on the Broncos.
36:38
Speaker 3: Plus five and a half could be a nice lead
36:42
Speaker 3: in to Evans Primer because I believe this would be
36:47
Speaker 3: maybe something in the seventies, but this would be the
36:49
Speaker 3: largest home dog in Conference Championship history.
36:52
Speaker 1: Evan, Well, let's bring them on Evans Tuesday Primer starts
36:57
Speaker 1: right now, and we'll start with that. Go check it
37:00
Speaker 1: out Actionnetwork dot com or on the Action Network app.
37:03
Speaker 1: The Conference Championship Primer. Biggest home dog in Conference Championship history.
37:10
Speaker 5: Yeah, by far too right now? Five and a half
37:14
Speaker 5: point dogs, So since the merger, it'd be the largest
37:18
Speaker 5: home dog, and then nineteen sixty eight we had a
37:20
Speaker 5: larger one, but I believe seating back then was just
37:23
Speaker 5: kind of randomized, so you had like a home team
37:26
Speaker 5: that just wasn't as good in that spot. So really,
37:28
Speaker 5: since we've had seating, this is kind of unprecedented.
37:32
Speaker 6: And then you have this stat So.
37:34
Speaker 5: The Bears closed at three and a half last week,
37:36
Speaker 5: but there were some fours out there, and when the
37:38
Speaker 5: line closes plus four higher home dogs four plus points
37:42
Speaker 5: nine to zero against the spread last fifty years in
37:45
Speaker 5: the playoffs, who and you count the Panthers who covered
37:48
Speaker 5: against the Rams. So this line massive. I'm stuck. I
37:51
Speaker 5: kind of like the Broncos in this spot. I just
37:53
Speaker 5: feel like Peyton will be figuring things out coming with schemes,
37:58
Speaker 5: and the Patriots don have a lot of film to
38:00
Speaker 5: go off of, which is difficult.
38:02
Speaker 1: You know, it looks like we hit a resistance point
38:05
Speaker 1: at six. I was shopping around to see what other
38:07
Speaker 1: books or what they were offering. We hit six with
38:11
Speaker 1: Denver for a moment that came back down across the
38:14
Speaker 1: board to five and a half. Same thing for the
38:16
Speaker 1: other game that we haven't talked as much about because
38:18
Speaker 1: all of our plant the flags are on the AFC
38:21
Speaker 1: Championship game, but the Rams got up to three and
38:26
Speaker 1: now are two and a half in most places that
38:28
Speaker 1: you look, including on draft kings. Now, part of that
38:31
Speaker 1: could also be injury related, because Charles Cross is questionable.
38:37
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold still on the injury report he was last week.
38:39
Speaker 1: He's probably gonna play Zach Sharboney out for the year,
38:42
Speaker 1: so all things that you should be aware of here.
38:46
Speaker 1: Have you seen the same sort of market resistance Evan
38:49
Speaker 1: as you've looked up and down these lines, and how
38:53
Speaker 1: it pertains to what you've done.
38:55
Speaker 6: Yeah, open one and a half.
38:57
Speaker 5: It's just I don't see I don't see this game
38:59
Speaker 5: being a three points spread, Like I just don't see
39:02
Speaker 5: the necessity to be giving three full points to the
39:05
Speaker 5: only duo who has experience in this situation. Like it
39:09
Speaker 5: just kind of doesn't make sense, makes sense when especially
39:11
Speaker 5: when you look at the matchups, Like the last game,
39:14
Speaker 5: the Rams dominated that game, like ignoring the final result
39:18
Speaker 5: and rewatching it. It was complete domination until you had
39:21
Speaker 5: like a late game flip.
39:22
Speaker 3: So I mean, take a point conversion without that fluky
39:26
Speaker 3: like pick up of rat pass, the Rams win, have
39:30
Speaker 3: the one seaton.
39:30
Speaker 4: They're oasting this game.
39:31
Speaker 5: But to be fair as well, to be fair as well,
39:34
Speaker 5: we've the Rams have been kind of I don't want
39:36
Speaker 5: to say overvalue in the market, but like they are
39:38
Speaker 5: zero to two against the spread in the playoffs, so
39:41
Speaker 5: I mean that doesn't matter this week when you're underdogs,
39:44
Speaker 5: but I mean being in that spot, they're the only
39:47
Speaker 5: team in history to not cover wild card and divisional
39:50
Speaker 5: and still be here in the conference championship and then
39:53
Speaker 5: third straight road game two for the Rams, which is
39:56
Speaker 5: always a difficult task. Regular season playoffs, the numbers are
40:00
Speaker 5: really really tough when you have to do that. It's
40:03
Speaker 5: thirty eight percent since two thousand and two regular season
40:06
Speaker 5: or postseason, and then when you get to the.
40:08
Speaker 6: Playoffs, twelve and thirty, which is not great numbers.
40:13
Speaker 2: Are you worried about Sam Donald at all?
40:15
Speaker 4: Yeah?
40:15
Speaker 3: I mean that's definitely like the Rams have a better
40:18
Speaker 3: offensive line, better receivers, the better quarterback. The Seahawks clearly
40:24
Speaker 3: had the better defense, but I think that like they
40:27
Speaker 3: can get pressure too, And we've seen Donald make like
40:31
Speaker 3: he should have his pick should have ended that it
40:34
Speaker 3: took a punt return, His pick should have ended the
40:37
Speaker 3: second game is an awful pick. He threw a million
40:40
Speaker 3: picks in the first meeting. And the Rams can get
40:42
Speaker 3: pressure and that's when Donald really melts down. And this
40:45
Speaker 3: offense has not been great for a month and a half.
40:49
Speaker 3: It just gets masked because they their defense scores, their
40:52
Speaker 3: special teams score, and they go up so big on teams.
40:56
Speaker 3: But this offense has kind of been figured out a bit.
40:59
Speaker 3: I mean, even if you if you remove garbage time,
41:01
Speaker 3: if you remove garbage time. Since week thirteen, they're twenty
41:03
Speaker 3: seventh in epapri play fifteenth and success rate. And they've
41:06
Speaker 3: played the Panthers and the forty nine ers twice over
41:09
Speaker 3: the past three games, and the forty nine Ers had
41:12
Speaker 3: like no defense, and yeah, the Rams dominated that game.
41:17
Speaker 3: I won a three in that game. Basically, I don't
41:19
Speaker 3: even if it's like minus one twenty. I'm fine with
41:21
Speaker 3: that too. That's what I'm I'm waiting for, because you
41:24
Speaker 3: go back.
41:25
Speaker 4: I bet the.
41:25
Speaker 3: Seahawks plus one in the first meeting. Well, in the
41:30
Speaker 3: second meeting in week sixteen, it closed minus one, minus
41:34
Speaker 3: one and a half dead wrong side, dead wrong side.
41:37
Speaker 3: The Rams should have won that game. They dominated that
41:39
Speaker 3: game five to eighty one to four fifteen yardage edge.
41:43
Speaker 3: And that's even what the Seahawks playing from behind.
41:46
Speaker 4: And there's they.
41:49
Speaker 3: Had no atoms, no dots in, no lake on the
41:53
Speaker 3: defensive end, and the Seahawks were fully healthy. So you're
41:56
Speaker 3: gonna tell me now this should be three. Now I
41:58
Speaker 3: get like that. It's worth noting the Seahawks have a
42:01
Speaker 3: special team's edge, big special team's edge, and the situation
42:05
Speaker 3: isn't great, right, it's your third straight road game after
42:09
Speaker 3: overtime on right, And then the Seahawks had a buy
42:14
Speaker 3: and then a laugher where they didn't have to exude
42:18
Speaker 3: anything and they get to stay at home. So like situationally,
42:21
Speaker 3: But we've only seen over the past twenty years two
42:24
Speaker 3: teams after an overtime game on the road go on
42:26
Speaker 3: the road again, and both those teams, I mean it's
42:28
Speaker 3: sampatized too. Both those teams rolled the next week, so
42:32
Speaker 3: they and they dominated the next week. Mcveigh's only had
42:35
Speaker 3: three straight road games one time came back in twenty eighteen.
42:40
Speaker 3: They won by thirty eight and in that season, the
42:45
Speaker 3: Patriots beat the Rams in the Super Bowl, So maybe
42:48
Speaker 3: that's a sign of things that come. But yeah, I
42:53
Speaker 3: just want to three in that game. But to answer
42:56
Speaker 3: your original question, and yeah, I think we certainly have
43:00
Speaker 3: to be worried about Donald here against the pressure of
43:03
Speaker 3: the rems, especially if the Seahawks left tackles out in
43:06
Speaker 3: their backup is banged up too, so that could certainly
43:10
Speaker 3: be a major issue in that game. So yeah, I
43:14
Speaker 3: think it's natural to I think it makes sense it's
43:17
Speaker 3: logical to worry about Donald. But to Evan's point, the
43:20
Speaker 3: Rams haven't been playing since that meltdown against the Seahawks.
43:24
Speaker 3: It's just every week something is off right, like the
43:29
Speaker 3: defense gets shredded, or like last week Stafford didn't look right.
43:33
Speaker 3: So there's just been something off with the Rams, and
43:36
Speaker 3: like the Seahawks kind of keep the sending with that
43:38
Speaker 3: defense just seemingly getting better each and every week. But
43:42
Speaker 3: Donald could certainly melt down here with a couple of
43:45
Speaker 3: turnovers that end up costing Seattle to game.
43:48
Speaker 1: We've seen last week, Evan had it where when Sam
43:52
Speaker 1: Donald's favored by a touchdown or more, he's actually been
43:56
Speaker 1: really good against the spread. What about in tight game
44:00
Speaker 1: situations as far as the thinner spreads two and a
44:04
Speaker 1: half three, is that when trend wise we should be
44:09
Speaker 1: concerned about backing Sam Darnold.
44:12
Speaker 6: You look at those numbers right now as I'm reloading
44:14
Speaker 6: my screen.
44:14
Speaker 5: But to look at Stuck's point as well, you look
44:16
Speaker 5: at EPA per play since week ten, the Patriots are
44:20
Speaker 5: first offensive ep per play, the Rams are second, the
44:24
Speaker 5: Seahawks are nineteenth. So if you just look at how
44:28
Speaker 5: that's rolled recently, like I just think either of these
44:31
Speaker 5: teams can be off when there's usually consistency when a
44:35
Speaker 5: team makes a conference championship, and you're just not getting
44:38
Speaker 5: that this year. So I just find it really fascinating
44:41
Speaker 5: that you've got both of these teams in this spot
44:43
Speaker 5: because Seattle like really just hasn't needed to be that
44:47
Speaker 5: type of team, Like it hasn't mattered for them, which
44:51
Speaker 5: intriguing nonetheless.
44:53
Speaker 6: So Sam Darnold career against the spread when the spread
44:56
Speaker 6: is four or less either direction, I mean, pretty decent.
45:01
Speaker 5: He is twenty seven and twenty five, but that just
45:04
Speaker 5: takes a lot of teams. In fact, when he's with Seattle,
45:06
Speaker 5: he's seven and three against the spread, So he's been
45:09
Speaker 5: pretty decent in that spot. And even if you take
45:11
Speaker 5: in Minnesota, it's thirteen eight and one, So covering numbers
45:16
Speaker 5: either direction not not terrible.
45:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, good stuff. Gohe and check it out actionnetwork dot
45:20
Speaker 1: com or on the Action Network app. It's Evans Conference
45:23
Speaker 1: Championship primer to recap our plant the Flag picks presented
45:28
Speaker 1: by DraftKings. Kendra has the Broncos plus five and a
45:32
Speaker 1: half against New England. Stucky Broncos plus five and a
45:36
Speaker 1: half against the Patriots and I am on the Patriots
45:39
Speaker 1: Broncos first half under at twenty and a half points.
45:43
Speaker 1: Those are our Plant the Flag games presented by Draft Kings.
45:47
Speaker 1: The Crown is yours. That'll do it for today's episode
45:51
Speaker 1: special thanks to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold.
45:53
Speaker 1: By the time we come back on Thursday, we'll have
45:56
Speaker 1: a play on Seahawks Rams a lot more to dive
46:00
Speaker 1: into as far as that game goes on which side
46:03
Speaker 1: we eventually land on between the Seahawks and the Rams.
46:06
Speaker 1: Go and check out the Action Network YouTube page where
46:09
Speaker 1: we will of course be back on Thursday with our
46:12
Speaker 1: official plays in the conference championship games. Nominate our two
46:15
Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen parlay and all that good stuff
46:18
Speaker 1: for Kendrim, Middleton and Stuckey. I'm Brandon Kravitz. We'll see
46:21
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46:33
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