Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NBA + NHL + NCAAF + NFL Best Bets Thursday 11/20/25

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NCAAB + NBA + NHL + NCAAF + NFL Best Bets Thursday 11/20/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Oh in
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: four have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins. March eight, Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: is anymore. I don't even know what day is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Sewed back with you? Toadstool Sports, Thursday,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: November twentieth, bad day on the show yesterday. Obviously two
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: and four should not have pushed it. I got too
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: greedy with the with college basketball. I should have just
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: not gone with either of those favorites. Those are both
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: bad calls, those are both losers. I don't know what
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: else to tell you. I should have noticed that well.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not saying I didn't notice, but I
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: should have weighed more heavily the fact that like Texas
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Tech was still that close to Illinois in the previous
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: game despite only having like four free throws or whatever,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: So that was a bad indicator for Illinois. I still
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: liked how the spots set up, though, I mean, I
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: still probably would have gone with all three of those
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: underdogs though, and two of them just did not come
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: through with those huge numbers. I mean, sometimes that does happen,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: But I liked the spots. Did not want to dissuade
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: SOB from Mount Saint Mary's. I just had to point
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: out the way that I saw it. But they did
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: cover easily, only losing by five, And that was not
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: one that I loved as much because of the injured
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: player spot from Maryland and whatever. I still leaned that way,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: but I didn't think it was as strong. That was
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: an easy one. Valpo wound up being really easy as
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: well for SOB there, I think he played those My
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: plays were horrible. Yukon Illinois. The Yukon number, like I
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: didn't even know what was going on in the market,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Like it had already gone up to seven and a
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: half and then by the time the game tipped off
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: it was down to four and a half. It was like,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I think they were conflicting opinions on that game. That
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: market read was yeah, I mean, I don't know what
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: was going on with that. I some of these college
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: basketball games, like I just have to go in situation
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: because the market read in the morning is almost impossible.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I just can't even do it. And then again, I
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: still like the situation with the other ones. Bellerman got
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: there So that was a decent start to the rest
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: of the college basketball. That was an easy cover anything
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: only lost about like eight or nine. Kansas City and
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Jackson State both fell short. I mean Jackson State fell
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: short by a lot, even though you get into the
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: end of those games and it's like garbage time and
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: it's like which way is this gonna go? Like part
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: of the handicap is you're hoping that the favorite is
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: just gonna pull their foot off the accelera because they
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: don't really have incentive to keep their foot to the gas.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Sometimes it doesn't work out, although it's worked out more
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: often than it hasn't for me. Although I mean I'm
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: still up in college basketball this year, but now over
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: the last three years because last year was so bad,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: I'm like slightly down again. I don't know, I'm pissed,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: but I'm still up. This year been hot. I mean,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: there are gonna be some regression days, hopefully not too many.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: We won on the last game with the Portland Trailblazers.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: That game was all over the place. The line actually
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: went up to four and a half and then it
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: came back down. I think it tipped off at three
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: and a half. I gave it out of three on
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the show. Hopefully somebody got one of those numbers. I
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: think they covered every number though, because they only lost
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: by one, and in the end it looked like they
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: were gonna win the game. Portland was winning the game
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: and playing it close for like the first half. They
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: had a really bad third quarter, and then they were
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden down double digits, and I'm thinking
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: this game is over. They're not gonna cover either. They
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: made a really nice fourth quarter comeback and they actually
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: had the lead. They were winning by three I think
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: in the final like twenty seconds of the game, and
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: still blew it again and wound up losing by one,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: but they covered. I mean, I'd rather have the money
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: line hit as well, though. Jeffrey, what's up. Thanks for
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Let's get into today. We're gonna have a bunch.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have three college basketball plays, three hockey plays,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: and I'm not gonna do anything with any of the
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: other crap. I'll give out an opinion on the NFL game,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the college game, NBA. There's not a whole lot going on.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: There's not much that I like in the NBA. I mean,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: there isn't really anything to already sock, what's up? Thanks
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: for hanging out? All right. I feel like I'm like,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I'm just blind at this point in college basketball, man
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Like I rely on the situational stuff and then I
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: don't know, man like it was we were rolling. It's
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: been good overall, but man, last night is one of
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: those nights where you just, I don't know, you want
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: to just potentially end at all and it's like nothing
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: that you thought was gonna happen happen all right? Where
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the hell is this first game? We have a bunch
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: of like tournament games, so they get split, like they
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: get put somewhere else on the board. I think the
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: first game up. I'm gonna have a play in this game,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: because fuck it, I can't stop myself. This whole show
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: is the best bet segment as usual. We're gonna go
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: with the Southern Indiana plus nine and a half or
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: you might even be able to get a better number
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: on this against Incarnate Word in this Daytona Beach tournament
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: that's this afternoon. This is gonna be a twelve thirty
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: PM Eastern, So this starts right away. We're gonna we're
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: gonna start out either one to oher or own one
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: right away. The money's coming in an incarnate word, which
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: I don't like. Up from eight to nine and a half,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: your fifty six percent tickets, seventy nine percent of the
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: cash on them. The totals down though, to a pretty
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: low number one. Which low total you tend to want
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: to look towards taking the points, in my opinion, because
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the points are worth a little bit more Southern Indiana.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a team that they have not
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: won a game against a Division one team yet, and
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: now you're asking them or excuse me, incarnate word. Neither
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: team has but incarnate word. You're asking them to cover
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: a nine and a half point spread, and they don't
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: have any Division one wins. I don't know about that, man.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, yes, they are the better team. Ken Bum
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: does have them one hundred and ninetieth, which is better
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: than I thought. And they're actually low in his luck
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: index and very high in their strength of schedule. So
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: those are things that I would tend to want to
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: play on that team. I'm not gonna do it here though.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: They play a slow pace, so I think that's gonna
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: not be as conducive to covering a large number either.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: For Southern Indiana, yes, they're bad. Yes they play a
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: faster tempo so Incarnate Word. You could argue that Incarnate
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Word is correlated to the under here because they want
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: to slow the game down, But I'm gonna argue that
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: them slowing the game down is also gonna make it
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: more difficult for them to cover the spread here Southern
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Indiana as Southern Indiana Indiana, Southern Indiana is at least
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: better defensively than offensively, so they might be able to
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: also keep this game lower scoring stay within this number.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: They're also really low and ken Bump's lock index, so
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: they have not faced a difficult schedule, so neither team.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, yes, the strength of schedule is something, but
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I think it's actually gonna impact this game in a
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: negative way for Incarnate Word, which I'll talk about in
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: a second. For Southern Indiana, yes, they don't have any
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Division one wins either, but I mean they were at
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: least somewhat competitive against VMI in South Dakota. I know
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: that's not saying much. They lost at Butler, which was
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: very expected, but I think they're in a better position
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: here because they finally got to win, even though it
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: was against a Division two team, lore Ass the Lorex.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know, are they are the environmentalists now? I
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: don't know some doctor Sue's shit going on. They won
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: that game, though, and I think that's good because that
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: will break their losing momentum at least and give them
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: some confidence moving forward. They won't be overconfident now. They
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: gotta go down to Daytona Beach here for this game.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: But for Incarnate Word, I think they're in a worst
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: position here because they just played Indiana pretty well. That
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: was a big game. Incarnate Word that that's the biggest
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: game on their schedule all year. That was I believe that.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Oh No, they played two Power Conference teams. They played
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: TCU later in the season because Incarnate Word is a
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Texas school, so they get one Texas team from one
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: of the bigger conferences mixed in there. But Indiana was
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: the best team they're gonna face all year, and they
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: put up a really good performance in this one, covering
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: a twenty eight and a half point spread. The game
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: was never really in question for Indiana winning the game though,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I mean Indiana just took off. But I think what
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: happened is Indiana took their foot off the gas too early,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: and Incarnate Word gave a full effort in this game,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: and they came back to within six points. I think
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: they actually got within five with like a minute and
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: a half left, So incredit Word. Now they're coming off
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: this huge game where they put in a full effort
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: on the road against Indiana. That's why I don't like it.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be a little bit hung over
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: after that. That was a max effort, Whereas the scheduling
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: spot I think sets up a lot better for Southern Indiana.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I know they're the worst team, but the oddsmakers are
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: telling you that, and I think maybe they're giving Incarnate
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Word a little bit too much credit here, even though
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: they look like they're improved over what they have been
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: the last few years, because they're fairly new to Division one.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are. But I don't trust one
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: of these somewhat newcomers to Division one who hasn't really
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: done anything except playing decently against Indiana. I don't. I don't.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I don't like asking them to cover by a huge
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: margin here, So we'll take the point Southern Indiana. That's
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: the first play. Blizzy, what's up man? You're using you're
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: using my show to advertise. I shouldn't have brought the
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: comment up. Don't listen to this guy. I'm giving you
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: shit out for free. Man. Don't advertise on my show. Bro. Also, yeah,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: I mean you want to click a sketchy Telegram link
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: from that guy or do you want to just watch me?
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: All right? We also have another Daytona Beach game later
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: in the afternoon, U I see in high Point. I mean,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: this is definitely a better game than the other one.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: U I see. They're coming off I believe a close
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: call against Chicago State. Yeah, so Chicago State very bad team,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: but they stepped up their game against another Chicago school.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: U I see, so that was expected. I think the
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Chicago State put together a good effort there, so U
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: I C might refocus after that. They might have already
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: been looking ahead to this game, U I see, coming
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: off a game where they should have won by more
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: than they did. They were nine and a half point favorites,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: barely won. But they're facing a better high Point team,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: and we know high Point made the tournament for the
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: first time last year. I think they're still They might
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: still have the same coach there too, and they're bringing
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: over that kind of vibe again this year. They're off
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: to a pretty good start this year that they haven't
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: totally been battle tested yet. They're certainly the better team,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: though they're coming up an easy win over Canesius. I
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: don't really see much to this game. High Point's definitely
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: the favorite. They're up a little bit from eight to eight,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: with juice seventy five percent of tickets ninety six percent
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: of the cash. High Point they like to go fast
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: and not play defense. I mean that is the case.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Is ken Bumm is showing you them here and they're
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: at eighty six in the country. He's got UIC. What
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: does he have u C. He must have them as
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Illinois Chicago or something if I can type it. Where
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: are they? Yeah? There they are. He has them been
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty eighth, which isn't too bad. And
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: they're more of a mid tempo team, which I thought
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: they were actually a little bit slower than that. He's
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: got them pretty mid tempo. High Point will try to
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: push the pay though, so High Pointed think is still
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: correlated to over in this game as well, because they're
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: gonna want to go faster than UIC will want to go.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I don't have a whole lot else to that game, though,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Memphis and Purdue on CBS Sports kicking out the evening
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: slate here is one of the bigger games. There are
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: not really many big games today because it's a Thursday.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: This will be one of the bigger games. And this
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: game is actually in the Bahamas, so we're getting all
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: these weird you know, we're getting into the holiday season now,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: so you get all these weird in season tournament things
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: going on here. So that's what this is. Some of
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: it is gonna have to do with which team do
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: you think is gonna travel better? Memphis is not very good, dude,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Like I still think they carry all this like weight
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: behind their name, but as we saw in their last game,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: they're not that good. As we went against them on
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: the show here with UNLV, which was like a wire
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: to wire outright upset from UNLV. It was a bad spot. Though.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Part of the handicap is that Memphis was gonna be
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to this game, and I think they were,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: So I do think we're gonna get a better effort
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: out of Memphis here. Isn't gonna be enough, I don't know,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: because Purdue is number one in the country right now.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I think they're one of the top like two or
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: three teams in the entire country. Ken Bum has them fourth.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, his rankings are shuffling all over the place
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: right now. But Purdue was obviously legit and they're probably
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: the most experienced, Like out of the teams that are
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: the best in the nation, they're also like the most experienced,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: and they got kaufman Ren back, so he's been back
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: for two games now. We went against Purdue actually in
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: their last game, and with them in the game before
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: that where they beat Alabama, I thought it was a
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: nice spot to refocus after the lackluster game against Oakland.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: They beat Alabama a huge win. Then I thought they
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: were in basically a letdown spot against Akron. We got
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: that right as well. Akron covered against Purdue by one
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: and a half points, but hey, it's still a cover. Purdue.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: I kind of expect for due to bring more focus here.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: I just think that Akron game is just like a
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: throwaway game for them, which was the handicap there. So
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: both of these teams played badly in their last game,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: so I expect them both to be focused here and
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: if that's the case, I think you got to kind
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: of lean to the better team, which is Purdue. Memphis
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: looks like they might be kind of a public side
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: because the public is seeing Purdue laying a ton of
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: points up from fifteen to sixteen. I think it does
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: look a little bit tempting to take the points with Memphis.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Even though Purdue is ranked number one, Memphis is not
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: ranked at all. Memphis just has that name recognition. Man.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: I think people the perception might still be that that
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: line is a bit too high. I'm not sure that
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: it is a fifty four percent to take us fifty
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on Memphis. I like Purdue
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: in this one. If I was gonna do anything with it,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to Memphis also wants to play really fast,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: and Purdue wants to play really slow. So there's definitely
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: a pacing dichotomy here in Memphis is only seventy six
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: in kem Baum's rankings, which is not great. So yes,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I would say that Purdue might actually be correlated to
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: an under in this game, but again, you'd be asking
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: him to lay a ton of points as a slow
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: paced team. Total is somewhat high at one fifty nine
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I think the oddsmakers trying to bridge the gap there
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: between slow and fast. But Purdue does score though for
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: like a slow paced team. Purdue has a really efficient
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: offense near the top in the country, so they could
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: still score even though they play slow. So there are
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: fewer possessions which I think might be enough to get
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: them over that number. But I mean to allow them
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: to score enough to cover that, but I don't want
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: to touch it. Of course Linden would. In Indiana, we
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: just saw Indiana had a pretty lackluster game against Incarnate Word,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: which could mean that Indiana is gonna show up with
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: a bit more focus here because they pretty much lapsed
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: and focus at the end of that game and it
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: got maybe a little bit close for comfort. But they
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: do have Kansas State next in five days, so it
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: is potentially a look ahead to Kansas State. Not quite
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: sure that Indiana really will take Lyndon would totally seriously.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, Lyndam Wood is pretty bad, but Indiana is
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: also up to a thirty four and a half point favorite.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not interested in it. Even though there were some
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: indicators that maybe Indiana would refocus here, I mean, the
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: indicator being that they looked bad at the end of
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the last game, but I'm not so sure I would
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: want to bank on that, so that's not gonna happen.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: A couple of discords. That's gay, dude. Thank you though,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's probably why this blizzy guy is coming
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: in and well, I don't know because he's on Twitter,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: so I don't know. I have this these gambling you know,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: gambling bots on Twitter and whatever. But thank you for
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: promoting the show Man. Hopefully we'll get more views from that.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: And of course the day that you do it, I
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: have my worst day in the last like two months.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: So that's great, one of the worst. J C. What's up?
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out, man. What are the games we
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: got here? Man? I don't know. I mean, I'm not
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: interested in talking about too many of these really, but
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, there aren't really any interesting things setting up
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: in most of these games. You got Saint John's playing
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: this awful Bucknell team, Bucknell coming off getting smashed by Pittsburgh.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: So but Nell couldn't even really put in a great
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: effort in a game where you would think that they
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: would because Pittsburgh is in their area and considered to
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: be like a geographical big brother, and they still couldn't
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: do it. Saint John's might be able to just run
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: this team out of the building. Saint John's could be
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: looking ahead, I guess, to Iowa State, Baylor, Mississippi. They
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: got a bunch of bigger games up next, so I
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: wouldn't really want to do anything with Saint John's either.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: But they want to go fast and Bucknell wants to
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: go slow, so Saint John's is gonna push the pace.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: That could really really throw Bucknell out of whack there,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: but Saint John's might not really care about doing that though,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: with bigger games on deck Tennessee and Tennessee State. Tennessee
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: State will try to get up for this because they're
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: a little brother in the state of Tennessee. Tennessee hasn't
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: been battle to yet, and they do have Rutgers in Houston, Syracuse, Illinois,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Louisville all up next, so it is possible they just
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: don't really bring a lot of focus in this game.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: We still don't know how good Tennessee is this year,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: because again they've had a really weak schedule to start
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the season, So that's one that I might be more
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: interested in looking to fade the better team in that one. Tennessee.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: As we also know in recent years, you know, with
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Rick Barnes there and whatever, Tennessee has been a slow
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: paced team, and you can see that that's the case
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: again here. Tennessee much better defensively and slow. So that's
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: not a good recipe for covering large numbers. Tennessee State.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: I mean they've fac some alright, Like I think they've
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: actually faced some more difficult schedule than Tennessee facing Belmont
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: and Western Kentucky on the road. Those teams are not
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: that bad. So yeah, I mean in that one, I
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: would be less hesitant to take the points in that one.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: The thirty two with Tennessee State there again, especially because
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Tennessee likes to slow it down. But am I interested
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: in it? Not really. On New Mexico and Nebraska, this
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: is a very weird and interesting matchup. This is gonna
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: be in Kansas City, so it's a It's a location
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: that probably helps Nebraska a bit more than New Mexico.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Probably you'll get more Nebraska fans showing up for this one,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: even though they're more of a football school. On New
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: Mexico is like a different thing this year. Man something
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: that I'm not I don't recognize New Mexico this year.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Right now. I'm in New Mexico. I'm used to them
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: being this like fast paced team, just going crazy fast,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: trying to run teams out of the building. They're not
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: doing that this year. They're more of a slow paced
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: team this year, and they're coming off of a pretty
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: ugly loss. They really have not been tested and they
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: just lost to in state little brother New Mexico State,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: which was at New Mexico State though, and New Mexico
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: was only a three and a half point favorite here,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: So I do think New Mexico is down this year
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: from where they were in the last few years. But
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: some times, when you take your first loss, it will
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: hang you over into the next game. And because that
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: was a rivalry game, I mean, I could see that
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: maybe setting up a hangover spot here. I could also
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: see the argument New Mexico might bounce back, though, because
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: losing to a little brother like that can anger you.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: And I think New Mexico should be focused here on
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: Nebraska because New Mexico doesn't really have any big games
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: coming up, so this is gonna be their biggest game
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: of the season so far, and it's in this you know,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City. Nebraska should also
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: show up for this, but they aren't. Coming off a
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: pretty big win over Oklahoma. That was a good win
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: for Nebraska. It was a closely lined game. It was
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: at Nebra. No, it was in suit Falls. I was
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: gonna say, I thought it was in Nebraska. No, it
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: is that Souit Falls. So the oddsmakers actually were indicating
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: that Nebraska is actually better than than Oklahoma right now,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: which is interesting because that was not the case last year.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma seemed like this team that was kind of on
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: the rise. Last year they made the tournament. Nebraska has
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: missed the tournament I think for a couple of years now.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Either way, though, I think you could argue Nebraska is
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: in a bit more of a letdown spot here, though
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, based on the situation, I
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: almost want to slightly lean in New Mexico in this one.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: The money seems to agree Nebraska up from six to
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, fifty six percent of tickets on them,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the cash coming back on New Mexico.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: And now that New Mexico likes to play slow, getting
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: an underdog getting a bunch of points that likes to
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: try to slow the pace down is not really a
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: bad thing. Nebraska actually is the faster tempo team this year,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and they don't play terrific defense. Nebraska is more of
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: an offensive team this year. So also kind of weird
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: trying to still figure out what style these teams play
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: this year. I'll give a slight lean to New Mexico
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: getting the points there, but nothing that I really love.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: Vandy is getting Texas Southern here. Vandy, They've had an
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: extremely weak schedule so far. I would say they played
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: one Power Conference team, but it was US. I don't
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: really see that being a huge deal. Yeah, I mean,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: they've had a very weak schedule so far, and they're
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: getting Texas Southern, who was also a pretty weak opponent though.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: But Texas Southern, they've face some more difficult schedule, which
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: is part of the reason why they have no wins.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: But they've face Gonzaga and Texas A and M on
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the road. They actually played competitively against Samford and Texas State.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Texas State being on the road as well, it's possible
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: that Texas Southern could compete in this game and at
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: least maybe come within this huge number. Although Ken bum
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: as Vandy like ranked really high right now, is like
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: shockingly high. He's got Vandy like fourteenth in the country
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: right now. I'm not quite sure that that's gonna be accurate.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Vandy is down from a thirty six point favorite to
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: a thirty four point favorite here fairly high total though
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: it's dropped to one sixty six. But I would probably
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: take the points with Texas Southern there, but I'm not
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: really excited about it. Let's say, yeah, just another interesting
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: one there. I guess that Vandy, we just have no
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: idea who they are yet. But more battle tested is
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Texas Southern. So Pacific I was right about them after
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: they were coming off that close call against Long Beach
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: is a big favorite. Pacific barely got by them. Pacific
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: showed up and had a much better game against cal
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: State Fullerton. Now they got to travel across the country
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: to an unfamiliar venue and Playton Boker raton the the
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: mouth of the Rat and play FAU. Although we know
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: this is not the FAU team that made the What
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: they made the final four a couple of years ago, right,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: Whatever it was with Dusty May is that that's the
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: coach he's he's at Michigan now of course, so this
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: f a U team is not that anymore. But Pacific
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: having to travel cross country looks pretty difficult to me
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: in the spot for them. Florida Atlantic, Uh, they just
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: beat some non Vision one team to bounce back the
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: face is somewhat difficult schedule, I guess facing Boston College,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: I mean they're not good, but they're at least an
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: ACC team, Charleston Liberty, I mean those are decent, like
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: mid major teams, and then they were off for a while.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: They use that rest, I guess wisely or whatever and
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: beat a non Division one team. So an FAU staying
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: in Florida as well, So the setup here is better
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: for FAU. That's the way I would look in that game,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: just pointing it out. It's not a play for me.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic, where are you? Yeah, they're down from eight
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: to seven here, though, but I would I would probably
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: lay it with FAU in that one. Correct. Boca Raton
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: Boca ratone that was a mentioned on the show at
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: some point within the last couple of weeks. It makes
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of sense when you consider who are the
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: people who are living there. Let's not get this channel nuked.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: What else do we even want to talk about here?
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Iowa against Chicago State. Chicago State's coming up, that big
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: effort against Uice. I think they played a game since then,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Oh no, they did. They played Minnesota. Actually, interestingly, Chicago
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: State actually played okay against Minnesota on the road, came
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: to within twelve. So are they gonna be able to
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: put up an effort like that again and have multiple
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: straight games with a lot of effort and do it
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: again against Iowa. I'm not so sure they're gonna be
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: able to Chicago State. They faced a pretty difficult schedule
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: so far though, so they are at least battle tested.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Iowa looking pretty good so far, but they're not really
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: battle tested. Their best win was over Xavier, and we
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: know Xavier is pretty down right now. There is the
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: possibility that Iowa overlooks Chicago State because they got Ole
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Miss and then Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa State all coming
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: up after this, So Iowa might not put in a
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: full effort here. And we know Iowa with Ben McCollum
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: now there is slowing the pace down a bit. It
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: way down to the point where like Iowa's the seventh
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: slowest team at College of Basketball, but Chicago State I
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: think wants to play slow as well. But slow pace
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: like that is not the recipe for covering a giant
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: number like this up to thirty two and a half,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: so I don't think I could do that, Like, there's
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: no way that I could lay that with Iowa, even
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: if they are the way better team. Totals down to
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: one hundred and forty four, so the total is pretty low.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: I mean that game does seem like an under type
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: of game for sure, but lost some value on the
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: total there, And I don't do a whole lot without
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: College of Basketball totals. But normally, like if the total
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: is pretty low, I mean, it's low for a reason.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: If it's high, it's high for a reason. So I
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: think usually you want to look to go under the
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: low totals and high over the high totals, which seems counterintuitive.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I know ESPN two gets this other Daytona Beach game
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: later at night between PITT and UCF here for you
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: see that's gonna be Obviously it's a geographic advantage for
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: UCF because they're probably like a few hours drive from
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Daytona Beach. Something like that. They're in like the Orlando area. Pittsburgh,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, Pittsburgh is gonna show up. I would imagine.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are gonna show up. They're both
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: big conference teams. Pitt might be a little bit more
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: satisfied though, after smacking down big brother Bucknell. Nice bounce
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: back for Pitt after they got embarrassed at West Virginia.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: So that was another reason why you might have expected
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: pitt to just show up and just want to take
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: out their frustrations on their little brother and bully him.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Bucknell is definitely not good this year, Pitt. Now I'm
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: gonna go to go down to Florida to face UCF
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: after a satisfying win. Maybe not the greatest spot for
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Pitt here. UCF coming off barely beating Oakland and if
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: you remember I gave out I think I gave out
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Oakland as a play on the show. That was an
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: easy win, Oakland covering the number. There. You see, F
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: was coming off a nice upset win at Texas and
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: m who I think is down a little bit this year.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: UCF barely got by Oakland and now they get pit
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: So this does look like a bounce back spot for UCF. Here,
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: so I would lean to UCF in this one. This
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: one's not on my card because I do think both
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna show up, and I don't think Pitt
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: is necessarily gonna be in a letdown spot. But that
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: is a satisfying women. You crush your little brother like
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: that man. And now the venue favorite Central Florida here,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: and Central Florida is coming off a really lackluster game
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: against Oakland, so I like Central Florida. The money seems
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: like it's agreeing with that now, as Pitt did flip
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: from a one point dog to one that point favorite,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of tickets on them, but sixty one
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming back on UCF, So the
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: money seems to be agreeing on UCF at this point.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: For UCF, they actually play somewhat fast. I think both
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: of these teams actually like to No Pitt plays slow.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: What am I saying? So if you see F is
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: gonna get this done, might be able to control the
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: pace here and speed this up. Pitt also pretty lucky
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: in kemp Bum's luck Index at fifty first. I'm tempted
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: to play this actually hilariously. You see that is right
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: behind Pitt in ken Bum's rankings. Although Pitt actually is
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: the better defensive team, you see it as the better offense.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: That does make more sense because you see it as
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: a fast paced team. So usually that's what you see
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: with teams that are that type of style. They usually
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: just score and don't play a lot of defense. Both
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: teams high in Kempbum's Luck Index. Though I'll leave it alone,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: but I do like UCF in that one Taco fall.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Where is he now? He was on the Celtics very
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: very briefly. Those tall guys seem to not last. Man
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Faco tall, I don't know the guys that are as
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: tall as he is. They seem to just not last,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: like they just wear down. But yeah, I remember you
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Seef got into the tournament with him, gave Duke a
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: scare in one of those games, I think, in like
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: a one versus eight or one versus nine matchup when
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: he was on UCF. UCF is not that good anymore,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: but neither is Pitt. So that's what I have to
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: say about that. Long Island and Fordham is a geographic
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: type of rivalry here. Long Island's coming off a nice
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: winner for James Madison, and they do have Illinois up next,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: but I just don't think they're gonna overlook Fordham because
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: Fordham is still kind of a bigger brother to them
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: in the New York City area. Fordham coming off an
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: easy win over some Division two Manhattan School whatever This
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: is Manhattanville, not to be confused with Manhattan, who's a
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: D one and the matt Act. The setup is a
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: little bit better for Fordham, still just having this game
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: not really surrounded by anything big. Fordham has dropped from
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: a three and a half point favorite to a three
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: point favorite, though I mean I would probably still slightly
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: lean towards laying it with them because I think the
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: spot is worse for Long Island, but I do expect
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: them to show up. Elon. We faded them or him.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: We faded Elon in the last game, and Gardner Webb
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: was able to make a huge comeback in that game
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: and get back within the number there at the end. Luckily,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: I think we kind of got away with one in
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: that one. I thought Elon was gonna be looking ahead
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: to Miami, which I think maybe to some extent they were,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: which is why they started packing it in or early
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: in that game, and Gardner Webb got in the back
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: door Miami. Miami is coming off a tough game against
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: the University of Florida. Man, that was a big game
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: for Miami and the Geico Jacksonville Hoops Showdown, which was
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: more of a favorable venue to Florida because they just
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: have more fans up there in northern Florida for one thing,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: It's closer to Gainesville. But I think Florida just in
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: basketball generally. I mean, they're the bigger basketball program right
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: now too. They just have more fans than Hawaii does,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: any of Hawaii than Miami does. I think, dude, my
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: brain just doesn't work. This game wasn't really that close though.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, Miami lost by double digits. They were hanging
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: around for a while, but the game was out of
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: reach for a bit, So I don't know how Miami
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: is gonna respond to that. It was still a big
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: emotional get up game for them and their first loss.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, the situation does seem to favor
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Elon in this one. Miami is a twenty one point favorite.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I would probably take Elon, but I'm not gonna There's
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: no way I'm gonna go anywhere near that game. How
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: tall am I five to six, which I thought people knew.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: People know that from Tower Gang lor at least almost
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: all of Tower Gang were all very short, especially me
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: and Jose, but Todd, Lobson and Cole are not that
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: much taller than I am. The only tall Tower Gang
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: member is Clint. Clint is the only one who's six feet.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: All the rest of us are short. Yes, yes, sir.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Jose and I argue which one of us is the
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: shorter of the two, though I think I'm slightly taller
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: than Jose. Jose is really Jose is He has built
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: really really odd man Jose Like he looks like like
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: the dwarves from Lord of the Rings, that type of build.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Like when you see him in person, it's it's insane, Dude.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: He's like he's five five and he weighs like two
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: hundred pounds, but it's like mostly muscle, like he's not fat.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: He's like he's built and he's wide. I don't I
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: don't even know how to describe it. It's crazy, Like
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: no human shouldn't even really look like Jose. I have
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: no idea, dude. Wake Forest at Texas Tech is actually
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: one of the better games of the night on CBS Sports.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: Actually I skipped a couple of games. I'll go back
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: to those. I'm just scrolling around here. Whoops. But Wake Forest,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: they're coming off that game where we lost the cover
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: on you Mass Lowell. I mean, I thought you Mass
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: was gonna come within this number, and they looked good
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: in the first half. U Mass Lowell was in this
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: game until they started sliding like Wake Forest made a
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: run at the end of the first half, and then
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: I guess that gave the momentum and that was it,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: and then the game got completely out of hand. I mean,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: it was looking like an easy cover for UMass Lowell
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: throughout the first half there. That sucked because I thought
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: Wake I mean, they were coming up almost beating Michigan
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: and they had this Texas Tech game up next. I
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: was like, there's no way, dude. Yeah, sixty one points
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: in the second half just ridiculous. Thank you to UMass
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Lowell for that bullshit. So now Wake's coming up of that,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: I don't think that really matters. I mean, I think
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: they'll show up for this game against Sexas Tech. This
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: game is in the Bahamas as well, in the Bahamar Championship,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: which here in Boston. That just sounds like Bahamas, the
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Bahama Championship. Kid, this is one of the ones in
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: the Bahamas. Texas Tech is the better of the two teams.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: The ranked fifteenth, not that the rank used me everything,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: but they are better than Wake. Texas Tech's coming up
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: a game that was not as impressive where Milwaukee was
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: actually hanging around in this game for a while, and
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: it was a lower scoring game because that's what Texas
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Tech does. They play slow. This game was pretty much
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: out of reach throughout the second half. Although Milwaukee looked
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: good early in the game, They're pretty competitive for about
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: a half in the game. Yeah, I mean, because Texas
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Tech looked less impressive there and they're I mean, the
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: public might kind of want Wake here just because Wake
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: plays faster and Wake actually is not that bad this
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: year forty nine the Kembom's rankings. Right now, maybe they
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: have a shot at a tournament berth this year, which
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: would be the first time in a while. And they're
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: an unlucky team in Kembom's rankings as well. Texas Tech
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Ken bumb also as unlucky. He has them very slow
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: bottom like sixty in tempo, very balanced offensive defense. Texas
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Tech's still the better team. I would look towards Texas
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Tech in this game, especially given that they look less
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: impressive in the prior game. They're out from eight to
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: ten and a half though, so if you do like
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech, you're losing a little bit of value on
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: the number there. Fifty percent of tickets, seventy one percent
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Texas Tech. So the money seems
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: to agree with me on that one. I agree with myself. Yeah,
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: I mean we have Ohio State is a huge favorite
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: against Western Michigan. Who cares Tarleton State is against Rice.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a Texas match up here. Rice
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: just had to face Tennessee, so that'll battle test am a
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: little bit. Rice has faced Tennessee in oorgon both on
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: the road, so I mean Rice got blown out by Tennessee.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: But still Rice is fairly battle tested right now, more
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: so than Tarleton State, although Tarleton State has played SMU,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: LSU and Baylor, although those teams are all probably worse,
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: well maybe not, I don't know about Baylor. Where's Baylor
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: at now? Yeah? I kep mom as some twenty fifth,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: so that's actually not a bad opponent there. So Tarleton
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: did play them fairly competitively, so yeah, I mean both
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: teams are fairly battle tested. I guess Tarleton then got
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: an easy win over Division two team to bounce back
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: from that Baylor game. So Tarloton actually the scheduling set
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: up well for them because they got that game in
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the middle there where they're not having to come into
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: this Rice game immediately off of playing Baylor, because then
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: I would think they'd be in a bit of a
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: hangover spot. But because they had that other game in
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: the middle there, I think it sets up a little
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: bit better for them. Rice down from four and a
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: half to four here, seventy five percent tickets, ninety three
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Rice. Rice does look like
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: they're better this year than I don't know that I've
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: seen Rice ever be probably, which I know isn't saying much,
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: but I mean, I don't know what I would want
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: to do with this game, to be honest. I think
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: both teams probably will show up for it. Probably would
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: slightly lean to taking the points to Tarleton State there,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: although I think Charlton State, just like last year, I
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: think they might be a little bit overrated again this year,
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: at least for people that were paying attention. To like
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: the whack last year, we're talking, Oh my god, Tarlton's
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: They're winning so many games in conference. So they were
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: just really not as good as they looked, and the
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: wheels finally came off. Oral Roberts said, Oklahoma, we know
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: based on what I said about ORL. Roberts back when
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: they played well against Tulsa, they played okay against Oklahoma
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: State too. Or Roberts is in Tulsa, so they take
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: these games against these Oklahoma schools seriously. So this is
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: a game against the biggest brother in Oklahoma, the University
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: of Oklahoma. So or Roberts will try to get up
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: for this and or Roberts is coming off a game
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: against the Division two team Haskell who stole the Kansas
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: name the Jayhawks. Oral Roberts beat them, which I think
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: is good because that broke like a losing street for
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Oral Roberts, even though they don't have any Division One
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: wins so far, but at least that breaks that losing
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: momentum gives them a little bit of winning momentum coming
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: into this game, which I think is good. Oklahoma hasn't
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: lost at home, but they've faced two really weak opponents
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: at home. Actually, Oral Roberts will be better than the
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: two teams. Then Oklahoma's faced at home so far in
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Saint Francis and Arkansas Pine Bluff. Those are really bad teams.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma has been battle tested in their non home games though,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: against Gonzaga on the road and then a neutral site
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: game against Nebraska which was in Sioux Falls. But Oklahoma's
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: coming up that close game against Nebraska man, so I
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: could see them maybe being a little bit hung over
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: after that game. I would take the points with Oral
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Roberts here. Oklahoma's up to twenty four and a half
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: though from twenty four fifty percent of the tickets evenly
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: split and sixty two percent of the cash on Oklahoma though,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: so the money seems to be coming in on Oklahoma.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: I don't really agree with that. Central Arkansas and North Texas.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: By the way, I swear I have two more plays.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: They're just both late games, and they're I think they're
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: better than the first one I gave out. The first
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: one I gave out is just like a last minute
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Like it was one that I saw and I was
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: interested in it, and then when I got to the
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: end of the board, I'm like, yeah, screw it. Let's
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: to add that one. So the one that I gave
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: out already in Southern Indiana is my least favorite. Central
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: Arkansas and North Texas. Here Central Arkansas, they just played
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Samford really close. That was a win for us here
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: on the show. Central Arkansas covered took Sanmford into overtime.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: The handicap basically was that Sanmford was coming off a
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: really good performance against Arkansas, so I thought Sanmford was
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: gonna be in a big hangover spot. Central Arkansas played
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: them really well, took them to the y or lost
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: in overtime. Now, coming up that big performance, I think
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Central Arkansas might be in trouble here, man. I mean
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: they are road tested. They've faced North Carolina and Arkansas
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: both on the road. They did get blown out in
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: both those games though, but of course North Texas is
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: not as good as either of those teams. But still
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Central Arkansas they haven't been good on the road on
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: North Texas two and zero at home, and they're coming
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: back home off of getting pretty embarrassed at Saint Mary's.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: So though we know Saint Mary's is very good. North Texas.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: This was out on the Pacific Coast, played at Oregon,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: state close and only lost that game because they tried
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: to call a time out with no timeouts left. If
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: you remember that, then I think after that they were
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: just in a bad hangover spot after that. Man, after
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: the way they lost that game, first loss of the season.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Saint Mary's blew them out of the building, which Saint
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Mary's they don't play fast, but that defense is pretty menacing.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: So that was a crazy low scoring game. I think
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that game went under it. Yeah, it
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: actually went over. The total was twenty eight and a
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: half at close, that is, so it was one thirty one. Dude,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: that number one. It landed one twenty nine, and the
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: opener in that game was one thirty one and a half.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: So if you got the better number, you did get
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: the under in that one. Oh man, these I don't know.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Some of these things make it seem like these games
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: are rigged. Although in that one, like guys that tried
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: to do middles actually middled that one if they got
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: the best number of both sides of the total, although
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: that's really a tight middle there, if they I don't
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: know if anybody would really try to do that with
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: a total. Usually people try to do it with like
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: NFL sides because there's the most value at the points there. Anyway,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: North Texas, they got blown out. It was a pretty
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: embarrassing loss, so I expect a better performance out of
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: them here. But they are returning home from the Pacific Coast,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: so I worry about that a little bit. Other than that,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: I would lean in North Texas. Here, I would lay it,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: but the number actually drop from sixteen and a half
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: to fourteen and a half. So some disagreement here. And
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the other I guess question with North Texas with laying
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: the points with them is that they do play really slow,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: and I think Central Arkansas is also slow paced team.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: So low total of one hundred and thirty four here
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: it makes it a little bit more difficult to lay
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: points in a situation like that. Central Arkansas actually is
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: more of a mid tempo team. But I expect North
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: Texas to slow the pace down because that is what
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: they always do, even under their new coaching. We'll see
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: what happens. Houston is coming off that really difficult game
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: against Auburn. They got the win. It was a good
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: win for Houston, man. I mean, I know Houston didn't cover,
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: but that's a battle now. They play this awful Rider
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: team who's in the matt Ac And up next they
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: got Syracuse, Tennessee, Florida State. They've got bigger games on
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: the horizon, even though Syracuse has been down for years now.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: I think Houston's gonna look right past Rider here. Do
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: I think Houston's gonna lose the game? No, obviously, I
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: mean they're a forty and a half point favorite here,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: but I don't think they're gonna cover that number. They're
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: up from thirty nine to forty and have money looks
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: like it's coming in on Houston. I would not agree
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: with that. Seventy five percent tickets, ninety six percent of
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: the cash on Houston. Money coming in in the under
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: as well, it looks like Houston. I mean, we know
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Houston plays extremely low, slow paced, low scoring games, which
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: is also not conducive to covering forty Houston. I mean,
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: they're not really gonna be in then device to cover
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: that number either, Like who cares. They're just gonna want
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: to get in get out against a very inferior opponents.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: So I don't think Houston is gonna cover. So I
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: would take the points with ryde Or in that one.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: All four North Texas games went underwell, I mean not
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: on the closing number. In that last one, the game
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: went over on the North Texas Saint Mary's one, It
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: went over the closing number. It was just that tight.
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: Cal Poly is that Utah. I don't know if I
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot to say about that. Cal Poly
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: in their last game hurt us because they almost came
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: back to within that number against Montana and fell short
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: on free throws. They've had some time off to try
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: to bust that losing momentum, and they might show up
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: because they're playing Utah. Utah has a big name, Utah's
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: five and zero the Utah. They face a very weak
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: schedule so far, and Utah's not really as good as
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: this record might suggest, and they do have Grand Canyon
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: up next. Grand Canyon they're like an upstar team. Man,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: So I see potentially Utah not being totally focused in
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: this one. Utah is up from twelve and a half
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: to thirteen. Though eighty percent of tickets ninety eight percent
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Utah. I would probably look to
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: fade Utah in that one, though, I mean, obviously I
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: don't want to do it, but one of the bigger
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: games actually tonight between two Power conference teams. Here, we
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: have three games between Power conference teams all night. I think, no,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: we only have two, I think right, yeah, because Memphis
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: is not a Power Conference team. Oh no, we have
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: three because Pitt and UCF is one of them. Oh god. Anyway,
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State Kansas State. This is an interesting game with
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: two teams that are probably gonna be like tournament bubble
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: teams this year or something to that. To that effect,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: this game is gonna be on Peacock. So I guess
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: Peacock is getting more than just big ten games now, which,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: by the way, I'm really pissed that Disney is gonna
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: be taking over March Madness in twenty twenty eight. I
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: hate it, dude. The CBS, tn T, TBS, True TV
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Combo has been fine, like that's it's been that, it's
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: been under the CBS banner for my entire life, and
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: now Disney's gonna take it over. They're gonna fuck everything
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: up as usual. They're adding you know, they're already added
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: ads to red zone like fuck that shit. Yeah, I
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: hate it, and you're probably gonna have to pay for it.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: Whereas right now there's a free March Madness app where
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: you can watch all the March Madness games. Probably won't
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: be able to anymore. I fucking hate it. The tournament is,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: you know, one of my favorite events. Fuck Disney. Hopefully
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: this is a channel doesn't get nuked. Mississippi State, I mean,
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: they've only been battle tested once and they did lose
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: to Iowa State. Although they played decently in the game,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: they lost by sixteen. Iowa State's just better than they are.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: They bounced back with a winner of Southeastern Louisiana, not
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: that impressive, although Southeastern Louisiana is one of the better
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: teams in the Southland Conference of the Mississippi State only
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: beat them by seven. But coming up with that, maybe
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: that makes Mississippi State look a little bit worse than
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: they actually are. Possibly now they get Kansas State. This
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: is in one of these neutral site games. This is
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: in Kansas City in the Hall of Fame Classic, So
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: the location does help Kansas State. Obviously it's closer to
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: Kansas State geographically, Kansas State is less battle tested right now.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Biggest game was against cal They won that game. Coming
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: off of that, they barely beat Tulsa. That was one
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: of my plays on the show. Tulsa covered for us
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: because Kansas State was coming off that big win over
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: cal They had this game up next against Mississippi State,
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: so I just thought they were gonna be in a
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: bad sandwich spot there. Tulsa almost pulled off the upset,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: so that is gonna put a scare into Kansas State
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: and they are playing closer to home. So I mean,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: to me, I can see arguments for both sides here,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: which is why I struggle with this game. The money
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: is coming in towards Mississippi State up from two and
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: a half to two and a half, with juice sixty
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: seven percent, ticket ninety three percent of the cash on them,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: I'll agree with them. I mean, I think a situation
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: where both teams are gonna be focused, even though the
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: venue seems to help Kansas State a bit because it's
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: in Kansas but or in Kansas City, excuse me, I
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: think it's actually in Missouri. But yeah, I think Mississippi
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: State is the better team though, as the oddsmakers are
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: telling you, but people are gonna see that they're two
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: and one Kansas State's four and oh. I think the
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: public might have a tendency to maybe even lean a
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: little bit towards Kansas State for that reason, So the
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: what the oddsmakers are telling you kind of differs them
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: what the perception might be there. So yeah, I would
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: lean to Mississippi State in that one, but it's not
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion. Kansas State has only covered once and
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: all four of their games have got over. Mississippi State
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: has not covered. That means there's probably some regression in
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: store as far as the covering of the Both teams
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: haven't been covering. But that's just because the reason why
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: these teams haven't covered though, except for the Mississippi State
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: in Iowa State, is that these teams are just they're
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: overvalued in the market just because they're facing like lower
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: conference teams, Like that's why. So there's nothing to really
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's anything to really take away from that,
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: Like we know that that's the case, like when these
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: big conference teams are facing these awful teams, the big
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: conference team is almost always going to be skewing in
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: the market, Like there's almost always going to be valueing
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: the number going the other way, if that makes sense,
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: because the odds makers just have to skew it that
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: way because they know the public is only going to
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: be on that more popular team. You're on Mississippi State
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: in the under. All right, good luck with that. I
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: think I don't like the under in that one, the
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State side. I'll agree with the totals moving up
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: to one sixty three and a half. And I think
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: we're looking at two teams that do not play slow.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: I know Kansas State plays fast, thirty seventh in the country.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State, where are they at? Kem Mom has them
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: slightly better? They play fairly fast as well in the
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: top one hundred. I don't like the under in that one.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, you got two pretty fast paced teams going
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: at it there. All right, let's get let's get to
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: my plays more best bets even than I think. I
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: already threw out the the graphic already an hour in God,
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: we're gonna lay the points with USC minus the eighteen
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: and a half. This is a terrible spot for Troy.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: The money's coming back on Troy. It looks like you
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: might be able to lay eighteen. Money is seeming to
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: disagree with me on this whatever. I don't like it.
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: I don't like when the market looks like it's disagreeing
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: with me, But it's so early in the day. You
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: never even know what this market is gonna look like
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: by the end of the day because early in the
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: day it's so difficult to read these college basketball games.
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: Like it's almost like I shouldn't even bring up the screen.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Sixty seven percent of tickets on USC, fifty percent of
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: the cash on Troy. I don't like the spot for
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Troy at all. Dude, Troy, they're a decent team. They're
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: pretty good for sun Bell team. They're decently battle tests that.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: I get all that, But look at the game they're
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: coming off of. Dude, two days ago, they went into
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: San Diego State. They've actually been out on the Pacific
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: Coast now since Friday the fourteenth, so this is gonna
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: be their fourth and final game of the road trip here,
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: so you got to think they're getting fatigued. But if
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: that's not ridiculous enough, they went into San Diego State
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: as fourteen and a half win underdogs. We know San
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: Diego State has a very good basketball reputation. Troy went
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: in there and they beat them outright in two overtimes,
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: in a massive upset. Plus going two overtimes, I mean
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: come on, man, I mean, and Troy was way ahead
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: late in the game, blew the game. They're out to
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: a good start at the beginning of the game too,
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: they blew the lead late, had to go into overtime.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: They fell behind him both overtime periods. Still won the
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: game two nights ago. I mean, you gotta think they're
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: gonna be totally out of gas after that. And San
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Diego State does typically play a pretty physical style, physical defense.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: Under what's their coach's name, I think he's still there.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: He's been there forever. The dude with the gray hair,
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: I forget his name. I saw him live in the
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: tournament not too long ago, a couple of years ago,
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: when they played against Yukon and got destroyed in Boston.
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: San Diego State, I mean, they're solid again. They play
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: a good defense. They play slow, slow tempo, twentieth in
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: the country defensively according to Kenbum two twenty nine and pace.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: So they're a team that beats you up, man. And
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: now Troy's coming up of that, and it looks even
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: more impressive because it went over one hundred points for
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: each team, But that's because it went to double overtime.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: Now they're going to turn a round off of that
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: and play USC. I know USC is a big name,
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: but USC has actually been the lesser name in college
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: basketball for a long time, dude. I mean, San Diego
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: State was in the championship not that long ago, and
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: when's the last time USC even made the tournament. I
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: don't know. They might have snuck into it within the
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: last couple of years, but San Diego State just has
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: way more weight behind their name in basketball. Man, That's
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: just the way that it is. So even if USC
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: is actually the slightly better team, which they might be, well,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: actually I don't think they are, but USC is actually
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: a little Actually Ken Bomb says that they are twentieth
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: in the country, so maybe there's line value here too.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: So was the line in this san diegogit? Yeah? No,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: it's fourteen and a half and this is eighteen, So
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: the line is basically in line with what Ken Bomb
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: has with he has USC is the better team. But whatever,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: I still think San Diego State might get more of
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: your attention just because they have all that name recognition
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: recently in basketball, and Troy pulled off that opposeet. I
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: just don't think they're gonna have anything left in the tank.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: By the end of this, USC off to a three
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: and oh start. They haven't been tested yet. I know.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: Usually I don't want to play teams that haven't been tested,
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: but they're rested. They haven't played since last Friday, whereas
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: Troy has played multiple games since then, including that multi
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: overtime game the other day. And I know I talk
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: about how when the team's been off for a while
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: and they don't have any losses yet and they went
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: into that break on a good note. Yeah, a lot
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: of times they'll be you know, they'll come out cold
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: because the rest will get will turn into rust. I
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: get that. But even if USC starts slow, we're going
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: full game with this, So I think once the game
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: starts and they get into it, they'll get back into
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: it again. I know they do have Boise and Oregon
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: up next to those are fairly big games, but and
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: Boise is some neutral site game, But I don't think
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: USC is not gonna be focused here because they just
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: saw what Troy did to San Diego State and USC
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: hasn't played for a while, so I think they're gonna
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: want to get back into rhythm here as well. And
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: this is a pacing contrast, I believe Troy. Actually they're
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: a mid tempo team. I kind of consider them gonna
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: be a bit of a slower team. Though San Diego
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: State played plays slow and kept Troy like kind of
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: in that game. USC does not play slow. USC is
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: thirty second in tempo, so I think that's gonna throw
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: Troy out of what they want to do as well.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: USC is gonna push the pace and Troy coming off
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: two overtimes two nights ago, that's not good. Troy being
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: the way more tired of the two teams having to
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: run up and down the floor all game. That's gonna
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: tire them out, man. So I think by the end
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: of this USC should be able to run away with
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: this thing. Troy also, in Kim Bum's luck index, is
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: twelfth in luck index, So they're a team that was like,
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: you might want to fade here because he's telling you
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: that they're overperforming a little bit. So USC minus the
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: points and then finally we're gonna go with Saint Joe's
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: plus the nine even though I know they're in an
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar environment going on the road to UNLV, but I
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: don't like the spot. We can probably get nine and
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: a half on this or maybe ten. I'm fading the
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: market reading all three of these. This is what I
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: have to say about the market in this one. I'm
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: going based on situation. Hopefully I'm right. I know my
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: college basketball wasn't good last year. The prior two years
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: it was really good, So I don't know. It's a
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: roller coaster. Fifty six percent of tickets, eighty one percent
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: of the catch on UNLV, they're up from nine to
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. I'll adjust needs to give out
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: the better numbers. But the only drawback I see for
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: Saint Joe's here is that they're having to go out
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific time zone for a late night game.
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: And I know I talk about how that's bad for
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: these East Coast teams, like the biological clock phenomenon is bad,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: but UNLV is having a cross multiple time zones back too,
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: because they did just play in Memphis, so both teams
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: are actually having to adjust time zone, so that kind
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: of mitigates that a little bit. And I think it
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: might actually be good for Saint Jose to just leave
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: home going on the road because they just lost to Pennsylvania.
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: Saint Jose is a favorite in the This was in
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: that Big Five Classic, which is that round robin Philadelphia thing.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Penn got up for the game against Saint Joe's Man,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: and I know Saint Jose hasn't been good on the
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: road either. I get it, But that was a bad
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: loss for Saint Jose. I would say because Penn. I
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: mean is they've been a pretty weak team for a while.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: They're in the IVY, but they've been a weaker IVY team.
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: Saint Joe's was supposed to win that game and they're
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: winning throughout the first half. They lost the game. Yeah,
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, they had a bad shooting game to thirty
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: eight percent from the field twenty nine percent from three.
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: So I kind of expect Saint Joe's to bounce back
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: after that. I think they'll progress back to some sort
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: of mean after how badly they shot in that game.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: They're facing UNLV, and I think UNLV is in a
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: much worse spot UNLV, as we know. For us, they
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: pulled off that big upset on the road at Memphis.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: They were nine and a half point of underdogs when
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: the game went off. I gave them out of ten
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: I think, and they won the game outright. It was
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: a huge win for them. They were aside from the
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: very beginning of the game. It was a wire to wire,
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: outright win for UNLV. Huge win for them. But if
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: you look at what happened in this game, I mean,
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: they shot fifty percent from the field. That was really good.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: Memphis had a ton of turnovers eighteen turnovers. UNLV did
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: win the rebounding battle, but there were some outliers here
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: as far as the numbers were concerned. Now, UNLV's got
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: to travel all the way back home, and they have
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: Maryland and Alabama coming up after this and Stanford, so
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: I think they might overlook an a ten team, man,
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: because this is this game is a sandwich spot. It's
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: sandwiched in between an upset of a team that's like
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: always in the tournament, and then they got a big
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: ten team Maryland who was really good last year coming
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: up next. I don't like the spot for UNLV at all,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: So we are gonna fade them in that one. Those
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: are my three college basketball plays. Jeffrey likes that because
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: it's a Philly team, The Hawks. What are the are
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: they the Hawks? I forget Saint Joe's, They're the RedHawks,
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: the Hawks, or you know, they're just the Hawks. Yeah, okay,
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know why I thought they might. The Red
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: Hawks are Miami, OHI fanduels money on Saint Joe's. You're
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: on Saint Joe's and an under parlaying the two. Yeah,
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: uh so UNLV. Also, I mean they play like I
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: think they play faster, right, Yeah, they're fiftieth and tempo
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: looks like yeah, so Saint Joe's does want to slow
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: the game down slightly. But Saint Joe's is somewhat of
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: a faster team too, at one hundred and thirty third
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: in tempo. So I mean, UNLV, I think is probably
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: correlated to an over because they like to play fast
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: and you need them to cover that number. But and
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the under, but that's
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: only after the total went all the way up to
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: one sixty four and a half. So hopefully you played
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: the under at the higher number. It's a high number,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: but it's high for a reason. Man. I don't think
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: I agree with that under either, even though I like
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: the Saint Joe's side. I mean, you got two teams
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: that play pretty fast tempo, Like, you're not really gonna
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: see me wanting to take an under in a game
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: with two teams that play fast, especially when the home
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: team wants to play even faster. So I'm not I'm
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: not gonna want to do that. I don't know if
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: I had any closing thoughts here. Troy, by the way,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: I was gonna just look at their numbers in that
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: game against San Diego State just to see what happened
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: in this game. And San Diego State had twenty turnovers
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: in the game. Man, that was a bit of an outlier.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: Usually don't see twenty turnovers from the home team, and
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: San Diego did did out rebound Troy, So that was
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: kind of a misleading part of that game. With the result,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, it indicates the result was a little bit misleading,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: let's just say. And I don't know if I have
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: anything else to say about any of the other games
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: that I talked about already, but yeah, I mean, I
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: think that's basically all I have to say about it.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Incarnate Word, by the way, did get massively out rebounded
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: by Indiana. It was just a bad shooting game on
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: the parts of both teams. So I don't know what
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: else to say about that. I don't know how they
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: came that close just by getting massively out rebounded, which
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: rebounds the most predictive stat makes that game look kind
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: of skewed as well. All right, NHL a lot of
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: NHL games here. I'm gonna have three NHL plays and
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: then I don't have anything else here, So I'm giving
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: out all my plays early in the show, well early
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: in the show or an hour in. But I gotta
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: get this done so I can do the insert video
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: on that stupid early game. The rest of my games,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: I think, are all night games. Yeah, so I have
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: three hockey games, all the hockeys at night, and then
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: my other two college basketball games I gave out are
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: later than that. Columbus is at Toronto in the market.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: It looks like there's a lot of money coming in
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: on Columbus in this game, and I don't totally see it.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, Columbus is playing a third game in four
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: days here, all in different cities. They beat Montreal on
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: a shootout, then they struggled against Winnipeg with Elvis in
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: net and they lost by three goals five to two.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: Grieves should be back in net here from them, and
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: he's been their primary goalie recently, so that might help them.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: It also means they have arrested goalie here, But I
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: don't know. Man, it's still three games of four days.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: They got Detroit coming up after this, which might draw
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: their focus a little bit more than Toronto might want to.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: They might still be in a bounce back mode after
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: losing five to two though to Winnipeg. So I don't know.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: I struggled to figure out this game. Toronto. I don't
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: think they're really as bad as their nine to nine
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: to two record looks. I don't know. If I don't
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: know what the situation is with the Austin Matthews injury. Here,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: is he out for the season, I don't know. He's
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: he's uninjured. It looks like he's not out for the season.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: The injured reserve works a little bit differently in hockey,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: I think. But he's he's not back yet, so Toronto's
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: still without him. Toronto, they just got some momentum back.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: So I do like that. They lost five games in
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: a row and then they bounce back with a win
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: over Saint Louis on Tuesday, and they're pretty rested prior
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: to that. So you're looking at Toronto being the more
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: rested team, staying at home and they just broke a
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: long lost streak and sometimes that beating. Sometimes ending that
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: long lost streak will give you new momentum going forward.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: So to me, the spot doesn't look that bad for Toronto,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: except that you could argue the met have a look
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: ahead to Montreal and next because Toronto and Montreal that's
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: a huge thing. They're both original six teams. They do
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: not like each other. That is the one thing that
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: that's the thing that that's the only thing that looks
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: bad for Toronto in this game. To be honest, the
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: money is heavily coming in in Columbus, though, flipping them
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: from plus one point fifteen to minus one oh nine
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of the cash on them, ninety two percent
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on Toronto. I don't see why the
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: public could be that heavy on Toronto. To be honest,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: the money's still moving around a little bit. But the
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: market read is saying Columbus and Toronto looks like they're
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: almost headed to being a dreaded public home underdog, which
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: you rarely see. I know I lost going against one
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: the other day with Utah, but I still think Utah
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: was the market reading that one when the game went off.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: I do not think they were a square side at all.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: I know, my man Marco DiAngelo had that as one
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: of his plays because I go back and I look
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: at those guys paid plays after the fact, and he
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: had Utah as one of his paid plays that day.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: So he and I think very similarly. So I don't
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: think that one was a bad call at all. And
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: Utah of course lost in the final four seconds. But anyway,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: back to this game, the money is all coming in
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: a Columbus, So the market read of saying Columbus, I
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: just don't. I don't feel strongly about it. I mean,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: I guess I'll lean that way because it's such a
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: strong market read. The only reason I could see for
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: it is that Toronto. You could argue they're going to
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: overlook Columbus because they have Montreal up next. But other
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: than that, I just I mean, you could maybe the
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: money is just coming in that way because the maybe
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: the professional guys just think Toronto's a bad team at
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: this point. So I don't know, man, I'm staying away though,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with that game when
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: money is irrelevant. Elon is a moron. He's either align
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: propagandist or an absolute idiot when it comes to economics,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: because you can't not have money, you need to have
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: a medium of exchange. It's absolutely ridiculous what it like.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: It's like it's a communist idea. What he's putting out there,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: it's ridiculed. Who is that aa two brute Louis Truton
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: and I don't even know who that is for Florida
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: the bar Are you serious? I don't even know who
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: that is for a barbecuing Aison Leaf's coaches a barube beruby?
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: Is he a rube? Won the Stanley Cup of the dude,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: don't remind me of that? You mean that was twenty eighteen,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: wasn't it? Because it was against my Boston Bruins. You
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: want you want to remind me of that? The Bruins
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: never should have lost that series. If that's the Stanley
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: Cup that you're talking about. The Bruins had that thing
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: one that was unbelievable, bullshit, Bruins were the better team
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: too that game. Oh the Leafs coach, Oh well, I
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: still don't think that's that significant. That was so many
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: years ago, Like, who even thinks about that anymore? I
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: don't think that makes that win more significant. I really don't. Yeah,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, I just I don't think that's a factor.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: I mean that happened almost a decade ago, dude, like
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: more than half a decade ago. You're telling me like
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: these teams are completely new, like players and stuff too,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: like to a lot of an extent, like you really
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna remember that. I do not. Like, No,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think it matters at all. Columbus in a
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: horrible rest spot. I mean, yeah, they're not in a
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: great rest spot. Barub is the chief. The only chief
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: is Robert parrish Man. All right. Next up, I'm gonna
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: give out a play Montreal money line minus one twenty
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: nine is the best I saw on this. They're up
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit from minus one twenty to minus one
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: thirty five. I think you'll still get it in a
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: decent price range. Year. My hockey players are all in
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: decent money line ranges. Yere, So I do like that
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of tickets, ninety nine percent of the
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: cash Montreal. They're looking like a little bit of a
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: public side, but I think the actual money is on
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: that side. I mean, the public just doesn't come in
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: on hockey that heavily, really, especially when there are other
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: sports going on, like football, public is definitely gonna be
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: focused on that Thursday night football game. Washington. I think
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: they were in a bad spot, dude. I mean, they're
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: coming off just wrecking Edmonton, and not only did they
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: do that, but that was last night. They beat them
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: seven to four. That is a very satisfying win for
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: Washington over Edmonton. And it was misleading too, because there
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: were two empty net goals at the end of the game.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: The game was five to four before that, so it
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: was a much closer game than it looked like on
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: the scoreboard. Edmonton outshot Washington, they outface off them. Washington
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: was the more physical team, but both of these teams
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: I considered to be kind of more finesse teams. So
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: coming off a misleading result and having to now travel
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: up to Montreal for a single game road trip, and
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: by the way, Tampa Bay up next for Washington, Washington
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: did just lose to Tampa Bay on November eighth, so
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: they might be looking at that game for that reason.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying they're gonna overlook Montreal. I has been
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: really hot, but like, how do you travel with no
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: time off off of that win over Edmonton, which is
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: huge and it's misleading, and then really get ready for
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: this Montreal game. I don't see it. Montreal. They're not
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook Washington, especially when Montreal has lost four games
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: in a row and Montreal has two days off to
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: prep for this. Yeah, they're coming back home, but they
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: only went to Columbus, so it's not really a road
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: trip or turn spot here. They were at home prior
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: to that, so this spot looks way better for Montreal.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, am I worried that it might be Montembau
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: and Net? I don't know if it will be because
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: they've had so many days off. DoBeS has still been
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: kind of the guy. It might still be him, But
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: I mean Montebau, I know, like, dude, I tried to
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: fade Montebau twice and lost both times. Like what do you?
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Like, what do you want me to
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: do Montebau. Yeah, I mean, he's been giving up a
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: lot of goals, but the two games that they won
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: with him in Net recently were the two games that
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: I faded him. So I'm not gonna fade Montambeau. But
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: I just am not gonna fade Montreal in spot. This
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: is a great spot for Montreal. I think we have
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: multiple days off to break that losing momentum. Like that's
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: what you want when you're losing a bunch of games.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: The best thing for you is to just get it.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: Get multiple days off, rest, figure it out, fix it,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: go out, focus on hockey. I think that's what they're
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: gonna do. I know they have a big game against
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: Toronto up next, but you're on a four game slide.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna overlook a winning team like Washington.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with Montreal on that one. The
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: spot looks way better to me for Montreal. So that's
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: what we're doing there. New York at Detroit, we're going
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: to go this is the Islanders. At Detroit. We're not
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: fading the Rangers on the road, although I know they
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: just lost on the road. We're going with Detroit money
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: line here against the Islanders. The Islanders. We're ready for
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: some regression from the Islanders. I think. I mean this
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: Islander team, I don't know how they keep doing what
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: they've been doing. This road trip has been insane for them,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: and they're still on this road trip. They've been on
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: the road since Saturday, November eighth, although they started out
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: in New York and New Jersey, so I guess they've
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: been really out on the real part of the road
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: trips since the thirteenth. But they played road games all
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: the way going back to November eighth. They've been playing
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: road games since then. This has to take its told, dude.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: And not only that, but they're five and one on
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: the road trip. They kept winning games, and I thought
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: they weren't gonna win. I thought they'd win at the
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: Rangers because I gave out the Islanders as a play
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: in that one, and that was the Rangers at home.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: We know they can't win at home. The Islanders then
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: went off of that and they beat New Jersey too. Okay,
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: they beat both their you know, the city area rivals there.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: They go out west and they beat Vegas in overtime.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: They beat Utah in overtime in elevation the next night,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: all three of those games in overtime. Then finally they
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: had a flat spot in elevation again against Colorado, and
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: then what did they do? Two days after that? They
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: bounced back again going down to Dallas and they beat
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is just getting absurd, dude. For the Islanders.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: Now they won at Dallas as a big underdog, another
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: huge win for the Islanders. They gotta be in a
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: letdown spot here. I don't see them having much left here, man,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: And this game was a little bit misleading to they
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: They did have a shorthanded goal in the third period
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: they gave them a three to one lead, where Dallas
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: probably could have tied the game at that point on
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: a power play. There. Dallas had more shots in the game.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: Dallas had sixty three point five percent of the face
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: offs one in that game and the hits were close.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: So Dallas, I mean, Dallas played fine in that game.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: It just didn't fall their way. Now the Islanders are
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: coming off of that, they're playing Detroit, who, by the way,
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: they beat seven to two on October thirty, October twenty third.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: So do you think Detroit's gonna remember that? I think
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: they will when some team beats you and embarrassed as
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: he was seven to two, even though that was at
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: the Islanders stadium there. Yeah, I think Detroit's gonna remember
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: that and probably have this game because that's kind of
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: a recent It sets up like a bit of a
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: recent revenge spot here and again this is the end
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: of an already wildly successful road trip. I'm just not
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: sure that Detroit's gonna have anything left here. I think
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: they're gonna letdown spot. The schedule has been pretty packed
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: for them recently too. For Detroit. First of all, again,
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna get up for it because they
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: lost embarrassingly when they played the Islanders on the road.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: For Detroit, yeah, I mean their schedule has been a
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: little bit packed too, but they're not doing all this traveling.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: They've had one road game in the last like week plus.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: Basically they've been at home for every game except one
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: since November seventh, So for the entire time the Islanders
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: have been on the road, Detroit's been at home except
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: for one single game road trip to the Rangers. Sorry, Jeffrey,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: because Detroit did get that win in that game, and
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: then I almost gave that out as a play. I'm
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: kind of mad that I didn't on Detroit there. Detroit,
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a win over Seattle, but I mean,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: do we do you think they're really gonna care that
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: much about that win over Seattle Now, I think they're
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: gonna be focused on this really hot Islanders team that
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: gave them, like basically their most embarrassing loss of the season.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: They're gonna remember that. Uh so, yeah, we're gonna go
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: with Detroit. Here. Money seemingly agree is they're rough for
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty five to minus one, thirty sixty tickets,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: ninety one percent of the cash on Detroit Red Wings.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: Money line, let's do it what Detroit? No, Detroit lost
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: seven to two at the New York Islanders. Uh so
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: this is a revenge This is a revenge spot. Uh
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: this is a revenge spot for Detroit. What are you
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: talking about, Jeffrey right here? Seven to two. The Islanders
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: won this game, and it was probably misleading because the
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: seven to two game is almost always misleading. Uh yeah,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: Detroit outshot the although granted Detroit was losing the game,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: Detroit was the way more physical team. They doubled the
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: Islanders and hits in the game. So yeah, I mean
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: it was a fairly misleading result in that game. So
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: that on top of everything I just said, you're gonna
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: take the Islanders. Go ahead. You're going against me, You're
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: going against the market, read, you're going against a very
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: strong situation on Detroit. You're burned out. I'm burnt out, man.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: I would certainly obviously I'm gonna recommend not taking the Islanders,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: absolutely not. And revenge also does. Even if it was
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: a revenge spot for the Islanders, I would still probably
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: take Detroit here. That just adds to the to the
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: situation there. But the spot for the Islanders is horrendous.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: It's a huge letdown spots to begin with. The revenge
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: just makes it even more juicy. But yeah, the revenge spot,
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, I wouldn't care that much about the revenge
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: spot except for the fact that it was the worst
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: loss that Detroit took this entire season. It was just
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: totally embarrassing. So I think that does add to it.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: New Jersey at Florida New Jersey, we know they're without
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: Jack Hughes. Now. We had Tampa Bay against them on
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: Tuesday and that was a win on the show here,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: a good win for Tampa Bay there, five to one.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: So the Devils are coming off of that. I thought
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: the Devils might be looking ahead a little bit to
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: Florida though, because Florida is the two time returning champs,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: so the Devils they could be in a bounced back
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: spot now too. So I do expect focus. They just
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: lost by four goals, and that is a good angle.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: In hockey teams that are off like a four plus
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: goal blowout loss, they do tend to bounce back pretty well.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: So New Jersey is in that spot for Florida. I
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: don't think the spot is that bad for Florida either.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: They did just win what looks like a good win,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: a high scoring game. The public loves high scoring games,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: but it was just Vancouver. Florida beat them eight to five. Like,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: I just don't think they're gonna care that much about it. However,
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: they might care about the fact they have Edmonton up next,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: But I just don't know if Florida's gonna overlook New Jersey. Man,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: if Florida did lose to New Jersey on October sixteenth
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: at New Jersey three to one, maybe they'll remember that. Yes,
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: you could argue it's to look ahead to Edmonton, but
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: I think Edmonton is gonna be the team that's really
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to Florida, I would say, which I haven't
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: talked about Edmonton yet, but they are playing tonight as well. Florida.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know that they're gonna overlook New Jersey. Man,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, New Jersey did beat them in New Jersey
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: as a really good record, so I expect both teams
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: to show up with focus here. So then the question is, well,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: which team is better? Although the answer to that is
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: Florida is the market is kind of telling you that,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: but they're down for minus one fifty five to minus
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: one fifty. But the oddsmakers is giving Florida more than
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: home Ice. They're telling you is actually the better team.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: Sixty percent of tickets, only fifty percent of the cash list,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: the actual money is taking New Jersey. I'm not gonna
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: disagree with that. I think New Jersey's in the stronger
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: bounce back spot. You're getting a decent underdog price there.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: I'll agree with New Jersey in that one, but it's
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: not a strong opinion. Zach, what's up, man, Devil's fan? Zach, Yeah,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: I mean I'll slightly lean that way, but not a
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: strong opinion. Saint Louis and Philadelphia, Man, there's so many
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: games to get through here. Let's see this game. I
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to say for this game. Saint Louis.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: They just lost on the road in overtime to Toronto.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: They played well in the game. I think I haven't
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: looked at the box score because I'm not that interested
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: in this game. But I mean, anytime you go to Toronto,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: they're an original six teams. Saint Louis not playing well.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: They took them into overtime. They it was a big
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: game for them. Now they're gonna play Philadelphia, although Philadelphia
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: did just beat them at home to five and a shootout,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: which was a loss for me on the show that
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: I hated that, dude. That was the game where Saint
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: Louis was winning five to three with like three minutes
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: left in the game. Even though Philadelphia did outplay them statistically,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis had that game in the bag and then
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: blew it and lost in a shoot it out. I
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: was pissed because that was the play I gave it
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: on the show. So Saint Louis probably does remember that
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: and they'll want to return the favor. It's a quick
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: revenge spot at Philly, so there is a reason why
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis might show up here for Philly. I don't
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: really think they're as good as their record looks, but
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: they are in that spot where they lost by four
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: goals in their last game. So they are kind of
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: in a bounce back spot after that, although they are
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: also in a return home spot. But they've been away
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: since last Friday or since Friday, but they only played
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: two games on the road trip, Saint Louis and Dallas,
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: and they were back to back, and since then they
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: had a bunch of days off, so they do have
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: rest to try to break that losing momentum and recoup
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: from that bad loss at Dallas. So there are some
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: reasons why Philly might show up here, but it is
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: still a return home spot. They've been away for about
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: a week. Maybe they've been using this time to try
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: to get the home stuff out of the way and
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: focus here. But they do have the Devils up next,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: so it could be a look ahead spot here too.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: So I think the lean in this game is Saint Louis.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: That would be my opinion in this one. I don't
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: want it, but Philadelphia out for twenty one twenty five.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: We don't see percentages yet here. I'll slightly lean to
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis at an underdog price there, but I don't
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: love it. Edmonton, who I just mentioned at Tampa Bay,
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: Edmonton off to a rough start the season. Man They're
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: coming off an ugly loss seven to four to Washington,
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: which I already mentioned, but that was last night. And
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: they're playing a third game in four days, fourth game
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: in six days, fifth game in eight days, sixth game
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: in nine days, and a seventh game in eleven days,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: all in different cities. So this spot, and it's the
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: back to back, you gotta think Edmonton's gonna be a
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: bit burned doubt here, man. I mean, even though I
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: know you could argue they're in a bounced back spot
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: because they lost ugly yesterday, but they're gonna put Picker
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: in a net for this one, I assume because they
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: want Skinner for the Florida game as well. But yeah,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, this looks like a bad spot for Edmonton.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: Even though they did lose ugly last night, it was misleading.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: Florida is gonna be a huge look ahead spot too.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: So now Edmonton's going down to Tampa Bay, Florida. This
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: is the first time Edmonton's playing Florida since losing the
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: Stanley Cup Finals again last year, so that is a
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: huge revenge spot for Edmonton coming up there. I like
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay in this game. This is almost a play
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: for me. Should I add it. I don't know. No,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna skip it because Tampa Bay is off that
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: really really nice win over in New Jersey, which we
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: got right on the show. Now they get Edmonton. They
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: do have Washington up next. They did beat Washington not
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: that long ago, though I don't believe they played Edmonton
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: this year yet. Sure they're gonna still be focused, probably
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: on Edmonton. I do worry that it might be a
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: little bit of a down after Tampa had such a
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: good performance against New Jersey though, so I'll stay off
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: of it. But Edmonton is in a horrible spot. So
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: I do like Tampa Bay in this game. I kind
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: of like the over as well. I mean, you got
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: two teams that definitely could put goals up, and that
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: is really Edmonton's m We know that I'm Edmonton's backup
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: goalie in there. I could see a lot of goals
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: being scored here on I know seventy eight percent of
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: tickets there is a public over percentage there were and
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: only seventy three percent of the cash total sitting at six.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: I still think it will go over, but I think
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay side is probably the better way to
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: play it. But that one doesn't quite make my car.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: Tampa up for minus one fifty, minus one sixty eighty
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: one percent of tickets ninety three percent of the cash
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: on Tampa. I do slightly worry about maybe Edmonton trying
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: to show some focus here because of the loss yesterday
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: and Tampa maybe in a bit of a letdown spot.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: But other than that, I think it's a horrible spot
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: for Edmonton, major look ahead component and Edmonton lacking rest
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: big time. Seattle at Chicago. This is one of the
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: games where I just have ame. I have no opinion
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: on it. Really. Seattle just lost to Detroit. I mean,
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say about it, really,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, will they bounce back from it? Maybe it
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: was a four to two loss to a good team.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: Though Chicago. I thought they were in a bad spot
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: against Calgary and they were able to get the win
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: there against Calgary five to two with Soda blooming net two.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: So Night will be back in net, so they will
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: have their better goalie in net. Chicago did just lose
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: at Seattle early in November November three, so it is
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a quick revenge spot for Chicago.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: I guess maybe that's sort of the deciding factor that
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: and the money looks like it's sort of on Chicago.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: I don't want to do it though, and I still
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: think Chicago the record is misleading ten to five and four.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're as good as the record indicates.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: Right now. They're out for minus one ten to minus
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: one twelve here eighty five tickets, ninety six percent of
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: the cash in Chicago. They did also have an empty
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: net goal in that Calgary game that made it look
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: a little bit more crazy. It's a stay away, though,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with it. Rangers are
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: on the road, so our friends, the Rangers, who are
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: so good on the road, but they did just lose
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: on the road in their last game. They're in Colorado.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: Now they're having to go from losing in Vegas by
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: one goal, so that was a big game. They played close.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: Now they got to go into elevation to play Colorado.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: It is not going to be easy. Even though I
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: know the Rangers are very very good on the road,
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know about this game. Man. Colorado. They've been
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: like the best team in hockey, and they're very good
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: at home. They have no regulation losses at home. They
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: have one regulation loss on the entire season, and they're
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: pretty well rested, having been rested since Sunday. The only
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: problem with that for Chicago or for Colorado, excuse me,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: is that Colorado's on a six game win streak, and
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: when that's the case, you don't want to have that
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: much of a break man sitting around at home and
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: not doing anything. So that's the one issue I have
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: with it, is that Colorado's momentum might be a little
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: bit disrupted, or that's one issue I have with it,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: that winning momentum might get slowed down by having too
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: much time off. Other than that, I do think it's
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: not a very good spot for the Rangers, though Colorado
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: looks like they're taking some of the money up for
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: my his one ninety five to two h two on
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: the money line, strong money line on the Colorado, even
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: though the Rangers have been very good on the road
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the tickets, ninety seven percent of the
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: cash on Colorado. I do think Colorado wins the game.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: I don't want to get involved in that, especially at
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: that price. No way Vegas is going to be at
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: Utah Vegas coming off beating the Rangers, Like I said
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: they're starting the road trip now with some momentum, so
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: could be a focused spot for them. When you start
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: a road trip, usually you are focused. You want to
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: play well to start the road trip. Although they do
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: face Anaheim next, and they did just lose at home
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: to Anaheim not that long ago, so they might maybe
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: be looking ahead of though maybe you don't overlook Utah
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: because it's the start of the road trip. You want
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: to get it off on the right foot. Utah has
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: been pretty solid. Utah could arguably be in a bounced
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: back spider because they've lost three games in a row,
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: but they are returning from the Pacific coast and they're
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: playing a third game in four and as all in
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: different cities, with both of those previous tubing in overtime.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: So I don't love that they took that overtime loss
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: to Anaheim, which we lost on the show in the
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: final seconds, losing the lead. Horrible, horrible, the game was over.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: I headed on too. I was so pissed that was
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: gonna be a seven to zero night on the show,
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: and then we were in I think we got into
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: a hangover spot at least yesterday and not the day
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: before that, though, Utah played San Jose after that, and
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: I told you I thought Utah was gonna be in
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: a bit of a hangover after that, and San Jose
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: did get the win. Vamalco will be back in net
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: for Utah here, I assume because Vanachek played against San
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: Jose in the back end of the back to back
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: Utah took that loss. That's an ugly loss. Even though
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: San Jose has a decent record. Right now, they're not good,
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: so Utah might bounce back from that, but they are
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: still returning from the Pacific Coast, although they were only
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: away for two games that were back to back days,
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: so I don't know if I consider that to really
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: be a huge road trip return spot. I don't really
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: expect them to overlook Vegas here either, so I think
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: both teams are kind of in focus spots here. The
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: money is coming into Vegas though they're a road favorites.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: So the oswickers are telling you Vegas is actually the
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: better team despite being at Utah. Fifty percent of tickets,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the cash on Vegas down for
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: minus one to fourteen to minus one eleven. I won't disagree, because,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: after all, it is still a start of a road
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: trip spot for Vegas versus a road trip return spot
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: for Utah. Still so, and maybe the public will expect
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: Utah to bounce back now that they're back home. I'll
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: slightly lean to Vegas, but I don't want it h
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: Dallas at Vancouver. Dallas coming off that loss, as I
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: showed you to the Islanders, and that broke a long
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: wind streak. Though, so Dallas had a five game win streak,
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: so sometimes again, when you have your win streak snap,
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: that can hang you over a little bit. Although they
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: have had a day off, they're starting a road trip,
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: so that does conflict with that. Like when you start
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: a road trip, a lot of times it is a
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: focus spot. So I can see reasons why Dallas will refocus.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: I could see reasons why they might be hung over
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: here as well. Vancouver is coming back home from a
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: road trip though, so I think the spot is worse
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: for Vancouver. They went out to the southeast, so that's
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: like one of the longest road trips they can have.
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: I wasn't along road trip duration wise starting on Friday,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: but they went to Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Florida. So
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: the return on from that it's gonna be a little
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: bit difficult. I mean, you have to cross multiple time zones,
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: you have to fly, that's like the longest road trip
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: in the NHL, like Florida, like Southeast Florida, all the
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: way back up to Vancouver. I think that is literally
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: the longest trip you can take in the NHL. So
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: that's not easy. They do have Dallas here, so they
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: should theoretically be focused. Although they did actually win at
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: Dallas back in October, so the only time they played
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: this year, Dallas actually took the loss at home, so
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: Dallas might be maybe a little bit more focused for
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: that reason. I don't know if they're gonna remember that
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: that much or not. Still, it's an opponent that you
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: would usually focus on. It's just the return home spot
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: is definitely difficult for Vancouver vers. I'll lean to Dallas.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: In the game, Dallas dropped for minus one fifty to
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty seven, sixty four percent of tickets, eighty
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on Dallas. Money looks like
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: it's coming in on Dallas. I'm gonna agree with it,
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: but it's not anything strong for me. My final play
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: is gonna be on Autowa. We're gonna do it again,
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: and we're gonna fade Anaheim at home. Man, something's got
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: to give here. I know Auto is mediocre on the road.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: I know Anaheim is great at home. Seven to one.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: We should have had the win going against them, you know,
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: going against them with Utah the other night. Something's gotta happen. Man.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: The money's agreeing with Auto here, and Autowa is a favorite.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: So again the odds makers are telling you that you
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: are not that you should not buy into Anaheim's a
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: hot start to the season. Man, the oddsmakers are still
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: telling you Anaheim is not that good of a team.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: Is there now an even bigger underdog this time than
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: they were? Well, the Utah game, I think closed it
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty eight, So in that one, the money
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: agreed with me and we beat the closing line. This one,
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: Auto was already sitting at minus one twenty five. They
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: got fifty five percent of the cash on them, seventy
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: one percent of tickets on Anaheim. It looks very enticing
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: to take Anaheim at home, where they essentially don't lose,
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: at an underdog price like the I mean, this line
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: looks so crazy, Like how could Attawa with a mediocre record,
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: be a road favorite against an Anaheim team that doesn't
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: lose at home and has a really good record. Something
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: really really stinks about that line, So yeah, I mean
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: the public is not gonna want any thing to do
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: with it. The oddsmakers are telling you something with that line,
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: and I would listen to them. In this case, Autaw
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: has had a ton of days off, they haven't played
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: since Saturday, and they're starting a road trip, so I
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: like that, even though yes it's a late game having
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: to go to the Pacific Coast, but hopefully they already
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: got out there like a day or two ago to
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: adjust to the time zone. Because I think this spot
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: is good. Man. They last lost at home in a shutout,
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: one to nothing to La, so I think it's a
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: good spot for them. Having a bunch of days off
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: after you lost it can break that losing momentum. Starting
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: a road trip you get to leave home. That's also
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: a positive, helps you refocus on hockey. Anaheim's been good,
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: so they should focus on Anaheim here. For that reason.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: San Jose up next probably won't be anything to be
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to. The spot looks really good for Ottawa
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: to me, except for the fact they have to shift
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: time zones for Anaheim. They just won against Boston last night,
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: unfortunately against my Bruins, the Bruins. Actually, I'll play it
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: Anaheim in a lot of aspects of that game and
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: another home game that Anaheim could have lost last night.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: Bruins tied it after they were down three to one,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: and they lost in the last like several minutes of
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: the game. Not happy about it as a Bruins fan.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: The Bruins almost had that game, the Bruins with a
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: more physical team, So Anaheim had to play that game
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: last night and they got beaten up in the game.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: So now they're coming off a lucky win over Utah
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: basically in the return home spot. They won again against
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: Boston who physically beat them up yesterday, and now they
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: have a third game in four and a's with no
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: time off. They got to face Ottawa, who's an Eastern
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: Conference team, and up next Anaheim's got Vegas, who they
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: did beat in Vegas on November eighth. But that's a
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: big game against Vegas. Man, I think that's a divisional game.
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: That's a huge game, and Vegas is the team it's
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: closest to them in the standings. In their Division two.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think they might overlook Ottawa here, Man,
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: and Ottawa's got kind of a mediocre record. Much much
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: better spot for Ottawa that'll be on the card. That's
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: the final play for me today though, and then LA
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: is at San Jose. I don't know if I have
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: a whole lot to say about this one. LA coming
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: off losing to Washington, kind of a difficult loss there
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: that broke a four game win streak as well, so
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: LA finishing up a road trip also coming all the
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: way back from the East Coast. Weird spot for LA
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: being all the way out in the East Coast since
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: all the way back on November ninth, and now they're
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: coming back to the Pacific time zone but not home
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: to face San Jose. It's a very weird spot for LA,
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: and that loss to Washington could disrupt their winning momentum.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: Even though they have two days off here, they have
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: to travel back across the country off a loss against
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: a pretty decent Washington team that will disrupt their momentum potentially.
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: I don't like it, Man, and they got to play
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: Boston tomorrow back home, so I think it's a bad
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: spot for LA. San Jose they're out on the Pacific coast.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: They're already staying out there. They just came home still
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: one against Utah, despite it being a return home spot,
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: because Utah was in that hangover spot after the Anaheim game.
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: So San Jose caught them at a good time. But
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: San Jose's staying at home. They're not gonna overlook La
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: LA beat them at home on October twenty eighth, four
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: to three. I think the spot makes sense for San Jose.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if they're gonna be in
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: any sort of letdown after a nice win over Utah.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: We'll see, but I like San Jose in that one.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: Money seems to agree. You're getting them at a huge
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: underdog price if you do want San Jose, LA up
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: for minus one seventy five to minus one eighty. So
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: the odds makers are telling you that you should not
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: buy into San Jose's record right now, telling you they're
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: not really as good as they seem. Fifty seven percent
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: of tickets on LA, seventy percent of the cash on
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: San Jose. I agree with the San Jose spot that
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: one is one of the stronger leans. Actually, San Jose
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: and the Lightning I would say, the Lightning are the
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: next strongest that's not on my card, and then San
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: Jose is the next after that, So I don't really
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: want to add them to my car. But if you
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: want to go San Jose, make your own plus one
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: puck line something like that seems like a decent idea.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: You want to go real crazy and just go money line,
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to tell you not to. There's a
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: decent chance I think that they can get that win
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: in that one. NBA I don't have a whole lot really,
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: I don't have a whole lot to say in the NBA.
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: I don't like this board at all. We got four games.
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: The Clippers are at Orlando. Clippers have had two days
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: off to kind of try to disrupt this losing momentum,
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: though they're also coming off close games against Boston and Philadelphia,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man, they're going to bring focus
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: for an Orlando game after those two fairly big games.
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I think maybe you do
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: focus on Orlando as well, because they're starting to play
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: well again. Orlando could be in a bit of a
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: let down because they just had that win as an
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: underdog against Golden State, which was a bad call by
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: me on the show. I thought the spots set up
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: better for Golden State. We took the loss in that one.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: That was not good for Orlando. You gotta, you know,
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on the injury situation. But Cherol looks
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: like he's still out until November twenty second, Kawhi Leonard
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: is gonna be out. What else is new for the Clippers?
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: So no real change from one game to the next though,
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: between these two teams. It's a difficult read on this game. Man.
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: Both teams are in kind of difficult spots. The Magic
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: went up from four and a half to five and
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: a half here, but eighty three percent of tickets only
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the cash. So it looks like
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: the money is kind of coming back on the Clippers
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: in this one. I'm not totally sure. I agree. Clippers
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: have been really bad on the road, and one and
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: five on the road, Magic five and three at home,
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: so there is a bit of a home road split
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: in that game. Money is saying the Clippers plus the points.
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument that the Magic are in
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: a bit of a letdown spot. Maybe will overlook this
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: Clipper team that has a really bad record. Who does
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: Orlando have up next? I forget, Oh, they do have
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: New York up next, So yeah, I mean, given that,
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I would agree leaning towards the Clippers.
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: I don't want it, but I mean that is a
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: potential look ahead to the Knicks and then Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit,
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: Chicago all coming up next. Those are bigger games. They're
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: all in conference games for Orlando there. They did beat
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: the Knicks last time they played them, though, but still
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: could definitely be a look ahead there. Orlando caught their balance.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: It seems like they're starting to play slower again, which
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: is what they were doing up until this year. I
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: don't know, it's weird, but I'll lean to LA plus
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: the points. But I don't want it. They're also, I mean,
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: they're bad on the road too, so I can't really
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not gonna do it, even though
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: I know I'm fading Anaheim as a really good home
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: team the Kings. I forgot to talk about this game
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: of the show yesterday, dude, And dude, I was right
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: about about all the games yesterday, right, like yeah, like
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: the NBA game, Dude, I think I read on the
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: NBA was really good yesterday. I think I got almost
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: every NBA game right against the spread yesterday, and I
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 1: would have had this one correct as well, because Sacramento
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: snuck within that number there. I mean, my read on
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: this game yesterday was basically just the line was too high.
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: It was like eighteen and a half. Sabonis was out
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: for Sacramento. But Sacramento when they played at Oklahoma City
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: with Sabonis or sorry, yeah, when they played at Oklahoma
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: City with Sabona, Sacramento actually played them to within six,
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: but that line was way way shorter. That line was
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: eight and a half. So now you're telling me that
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: last night Oklahoma City deserved to be ten points greater
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: of a favorite there basically with the personnel change basically
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: just being Sibonis out and I think some maybe some
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: additional injuries on the Oka c side, that line seemed
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: way too high. Sacramento did cover, but now they're in
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: a back to back off of that, so that's not
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: great having to travel from okay See to Memphis. They
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: played decently against okay See last night, lose by fourteen.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's about the best you can ask for
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: without some bonus now they got Memphis, and then up
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 1: next they're gonna have Denver in Minnesota, so Sacramento might
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: look past Memphis, man, I mean, memphisis hasn't been good.
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: This doesn't look like a great spot for Sacramento here.
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: It's on a back to back, so Bonus might come
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: back here though, So if he's gonna play, I mean,
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: he was out yesterday with the knee thing. But if
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: he's gonna play, that means he's fresh because he didn't
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 1: play yesterday, So that would actually help Sacramento, even though
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: you could argue it's also the the reverse injured player
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: spot with him coming back after they actually played fairly
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: well without him last night. So a lot of conflicting
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: things going on in this game. Both these teams have
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: really horrendous records too. Memphis should have covered for us
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Man, that was awful the way that they
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: blew this cover in this game against the Spurs. I mean,
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: Memphis could have won this game outright, dude. Memphis was
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: winning most of the first half, they had the lead
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: during a lo a lot of the second half, including
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: late in the game, and then they were still winning
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: by two I think with or they were winning by one,
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: I guess with three thirteen left in the game, and
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: then they never scored again and san Antonio finished the
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: game on an eleven to zero run. I mean, come on, man,
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: with the Grizzlies being plus six, that really pissed me off. Yeah,
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, Grizzlies out rebounded san Antonio fifty nine to
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: thirty eight in the game, twenty one plus twenty one
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: rebounding edge. And Memphis also had one hundred and four
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: field goal attempts to eighty seven from the Spurs. They
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: had seventeen more field goal attempts. Yeah, and they still, yeah,
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: wound up losing the game. Losing and not covering absolutely ridiculous.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: No way that the Grizzlies shouldn't have covered that. But
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: I'm just ranting. That was a horrible beat. I hated
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: that we absolutely should have had the cover with Memphis.
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: But now Memphis are turning over from a road trip,
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: which obviously I don't like. They have been on the
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: road since last Tuesday. Not good. I mean, you come
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: back home. He tend to be a little bit distracted,
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: So this is a bad spot for both teams. I mean,
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with the game when
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for both teams. I always just
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: kind of say over, but we have sixty nine percent
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over, sixty percent of the cash
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: on the under. Read into that what you want to,
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: I guess, with the total up a little bit to
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: two thirty five and a half, I don't know if
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: John Morant is coming back or not. Seems like the
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: team has more chemistry with him out, though he's out
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: for a while, so he's not coming back. I don't
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: even know if he's hurst or if Memphis just doesn't
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: like him because he just rex teams chemistries dude. I
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: think Memphis is trying to trade him. I think he's
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: not even actually hurt. He's hurt, so I think not
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: having him in the lineup is actually helpful. But that
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: all being said, seventy one percent of tickets are on
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: the Grizzlies, sixty eight percent of the cash on the Kings.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: The money's coming back taking the points of the Kings.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: I don't want either side in that one. I don't
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: even know what else to say about that game. Hardham
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: was really good against the Sixers. Yeah, his former team,
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, really talented player. I mean he obviously has
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: good he has really good games in him there. Philadelphia
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: at Milwaukee. I expect both of these teams to show
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 1: up for this one. Man. The Philadelphia is on a
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 1: back to back. They lost to Toronto yesterday, which I
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: said that I thought that might happen. And for Philadelphia,
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: this is a back to back, and yes it is
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: with travel, which isn't great. They've got to go out
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: to Milwaukee. But this is one where you got to
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: look at the injury report because Embiid and George both
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: didn't play yesterday. Ubra will be out, by the way,
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know how long has he been out. I
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: don't even know he's been out only since the fourteenth.
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: But the rest of these guys are still there for
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 1: other Sixers, except well, the rest of these guys might
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: be there for the Sixers and Beard and George, I
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: mean they didn't play yesterday, but it might have also
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: been kind of like, yeah, they're injured, but we wanted
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: to rest them of the lot. The last time I
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: said that, it tricked me and the team didn't play
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: them in the next game. But Paul George just came
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: back not that long ago. I think he will actually
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: play in this game would be my guess. Embiid, I'm
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: not so sure. I mean, Embiid has a bad knee,
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: and I don't know. I mean, maybe they will still
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: use him. Something is going on here because the Sixers
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: are up from one to two and a half here,
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: So there are definitely injury situations that you have to
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: be aware of in this game. But I think it's
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: throwing off the line to such a degree that I
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to think. Sixty two percent of
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on the Sixers, two percent of the
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: cash excuse me, on the Sixers, fifty one percent of
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: the cash on the box. I mean, I mean, do
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: you really want to lay points with the Sixers at
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee though? I mean, I don't think I do. Although,
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: of course, one of the big things is that Giannis
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: is definitely not playing in this game for Milwaukee. He
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: has what is his injury, I don't even know. A
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: groin strain sounds painful. He that happened in the last
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: game though, So this is the injured player theory spot
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: than for the Bucks. Right, So you got Philadelphia on
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: a back to back, and while yeah, George and Embiid
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: might come back and they might be. They're gonna be
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: rested if they come back because they didn't play yesterday.
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: But the Bucks, you know they're gonna step up their
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: effort the first game here without Giannis. Again here, you're
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: gonna get an injured player spot out of the Yeah,
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: the Bucks here. Bucks are coming off that game against Cleveland,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: which I know that was a difficult game, tough loss
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland, but they've had multiple days off. They're only
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: returning over from a one game road trip to Cleveland,
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: so not really a road trip return spot. I think
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: they will step up their game in the injured player spot.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: I would probably take the points with Milwaukee. I think
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: the line overall, the lines is gonna move too much
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: in favor of the Sixers here pretty much based on
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: the Giannis injuries. So yeah, I would gauge that as
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: an overreaction and probably take the points of Milwaukee. I
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: don't want to do it though. There are just a
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: lot of moving pieces in that game that I don't like,
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: which happens a lot in the NBA. Although I've been
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 1: really good in the NBA just for the entire time
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: I've been doing it. So even though this is the
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: new NBA and then Atlanta Hawks are gonna be at
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: the San Antonio Spurs, both teams without their star players here.
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: Trey Young is not gonna be back at for Atlanta.
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: Wemby is out for a while for San Antonio, which
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: sucks because he's a start. We want to see him
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: keep playing. Atlanta, they're coming off a loss that broke
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: a five game win stream for them, although it was
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: also in a road trip return spot. Atlanta had a
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: really hot road trip. They came back home, and I
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 1: always talk about how bad the road trip return spot is.
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: They I don't know if they were unfocused, but they
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: lost the game, just maybe due to all that travel
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: and whatever they lost to Detroit. Jeffrey I think called
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: that one correctly. Atlanta could be in a bit of
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: a hangover though after losing that game, losing their wind streak,
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: although you could argue sometimes when a team comes back
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 1: home they do bounce back to the next game, and
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: though in this case they're going back out on the road,
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: so a lot of travel for Atlanta. That worries me
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit, But usually the first game of a
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: road trip you are focused, so I can see the
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: argument for it being a bounced back spot for the
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: Spurs year. The Spurs coming off that win that probably
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have been a win that I'm still pissed about
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: against Memphis, Spurs did that. They looked a little bit
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: too good in that one. They're staying at home here,
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: they got Atlanta. They do have to face Phoenix up next,
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip up on Sunday against the team.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: It's been fairly decent in their conference there in the
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: Western Conference. So yeah, for this game, I'll agree with
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: the Hawks. So the line looks like a drop from
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: five to one. Although I think that five must have
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: been like when that might have been what it was
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: gonna be with Wemby in the lineup, I don't know
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: because he's recently injured. So now it's one. But the
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Hawks. I'm not gonna
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: disagree with it in this one. Sixty percent of tickets
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: around the Spurs, seventy two percent of the cash coming
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: in on the Hawks. Though money looks like it's on
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: the Hawks. The public wants San Antonio because they have
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: the better record. They're really good at home seven to
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: two of the Hawks, like I just pointed out, on
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 1: their road trip, the Hawks are really good on the
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 1: road for whatever reason. Seven and two on the road
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: for the Hawks, so Hawks seem to have a weird
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: home road split with her way better on the road.
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: Some injury news here though, I mean Porzingis has been
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: dealing with an injury. What else is news you gotta
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: watch for that for the Spurs besides wemb But of
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: course this is besides Wemba and Trey Young, which we
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: know those guys are both out for their respective teams.
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: Here for the Spurs, though, Castle is out still for
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: if that's he pronounced his name, He's still out for
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: the Spurs. So yeah, I'm not getting involved in the
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: NBA tonight though. All right, college football, we have one
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: game here and it's not MAC, so at least that's
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit better. This is a Sun Belt game
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: between Louisiana or Louisiana La Fayette at Arkansas State. This
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 1: is an interesting one, man. Both teams are coming out
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 1: of buys. Louisiana's four and six, so technically they can
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: get to a bowl game if they win their last
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 1: two games, which is certainly possible because they should beat
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 1: UL Monroe at home in their home finale. Because U
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: Monroe sucks, so Louisiana should be a favorite there against
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State, they're a slight road underdog, so this is winnabole.
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: But Louisiana went into the buy on a strong note.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: They pulled off two straight upsets against South Alabama and
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: Texas State. So I talked about how Texas State kept
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 1: losing as a favorite, really underperforming, and they finally did
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: get that huge win against Southern Miss, so I should
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: I should have added that to my card on Saturday,
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: I almost did that Texas State spot a really good
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: spot and they wound up winning out right easily. So
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 1: but back to Louisiana. They went to the buy on
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: a strong note. They haven't played this November eighth, And
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: you know, I talk about this when a team goes
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: into the buy and a good note like that, especially
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: off of two straight upsets, I don't think that's a
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: good thing, man. And in this game, Texas State outgained
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: them five twenty eight to three eighty four. So Louisiana
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: was not as good in that game as it looked
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: like on the scoreboard. So I don't think that buy
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: came in a good time for them. I think they
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 1: could kill their momentum a little bit, even though they
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: should still be focused against Arkansas State. Louisiana is still
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: trying to make a bowl, even though I know they
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 1: made one last year or whatever. That's still one of
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 1: their goals and I think they got annihilated in their
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: bowl game last year, so they want to get back
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: to one. Also. I mean they have the chance to
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 1: play spoiler against Arkansas State because Arkansas State still could
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: potentially win the Sun Belt West, although it's gonna be tricky,
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: but because Southern Miss did lose to Texas State, Southern Miss,
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: not Southern Miss, could have wrapped it up, but now
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: they're in position where they might still lose it. Now
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 1: for Arkansas State here, they're also coming out of a
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: bye but they went into the buy in an uglier note.
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: Whe I just went back to Louisiana there. Arkansas State, Yeah,
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: they're five and five, so they've been in bowls the
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 1: last few years too. I think they won their bowl
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 1: last year too, maybe if I'm not mistaken, But yeah,
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 1: they're trying to get back to a bowl as well.
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: They want to get their sixth win. But they also
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: did go into the buy in on a note where
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: they had lost to Southern Miss, So I could kind
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: of see that going both ways because that was a
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: big game, that was one of the biggest games on
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 1: their schedule and they barely lost by six points. So
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 1: for Arkansas State, yes, they went into the buy on
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 1: a losing note, so that having the buying might help
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 1: them get over that loss and they're gonna make you know,
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 1: they might use that buy to fix some things, So
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: that buy could be a positive, but it could be
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: like a lasting hangover man from that loss of Southern Miss,
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: because that was pretty brutal. Because if they'd beaten Southern Miss,
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 1: they would actually be a top the sun Belt West
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 1: right now because they'd have the tiebreaker against them and
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: they'd be tied record wise. So that's crazy. So now
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 1: what needs to happen is Arkansas State. They need to
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 1: win and have Southern mislose. I think. Arkansas State needs
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 1: to they basically need to win out I think, and
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 1: they need Louisiana to lose one game. Like that's basically
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 1: gonna be the way that Arkansas State can actually still
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 1: get to the Sun Belt Championship. Now, it's unlikely, although
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: when teams are in a spot like that, like I
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: talk about teams are not mathematically eliminated, but they don't
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 1: control their own destiny and they actually need help. In
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 1: this case, they're gonna need Southern Miss to lose. That's
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 1: actually a good thing because the team can actually play
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: looser because they don't have as much pressure on them
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 1: because it's almost like it's out of their hands, you
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, Like you can focus on winning
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: the game, but you need other things to happen that
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 1: are out of your control. That's actually a better spot
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 1: to be in. And this is an ESPN game, This
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 1: is a high like game. Man. They get to host
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: the game on ESPN. Arkansas State has not done that
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: all year. They played one of these midweek primetime games
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: at South Alabama earlier this year on one of the
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 1: lesser ESPN channels probably, But this is literally on ESPN,
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 1: competing with the NFL game tonight, and it's the only
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: college football games and so that's a big deal. So
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: I think Arkansas State will show up for that reason.
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 1: And it's senior Night, although I know, like their quarterback
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 1: is only a junior whatever, but it's still senior night
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 1: and teams do step up for senior Night. I think
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: that will That will especially be the case when it's
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: on ESPN, So there are more positives here, I think
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: for Arkansas State than there are for Louisiana. So that's
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: my lean. It's not a play, but Arkansas State down
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 1: from three to two and a half two and a
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 1: half with juice. I don't know if you'll get the
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: two and a half on it. You could go money
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: line if you want it, or lay the three. I
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: do lean that way to Arkansas State. Seventy nine percent
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: of tickets, eighty one percent of the cash on them.
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: They are a little bit public, but I think the
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 1: spot is better for them, sixty eight percent of tickets,
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: only fifty percent of the cash on the over money
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 1: coming in a little bit on the under at fifty
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: four and a half, which is a somewhat high total.
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: Don't really have a feel for the uh. I don't
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 1: have a feel for the total in this one though.
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, I won't really disagree with an under in
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: this one, but I just don't have a feel for it. Man.
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 1: I think Arkansas State is the side that I would
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: lean to, though, and then we do have the NFL
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: game this one. I was considering adding this to my card.
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think I could do it, though we have Bills. Texans.
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: Bills were initially to and a half point favorite, I
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: think because of the Texans quarterback uncertainty, so oddsmakers kind
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: of threw it out there almost in like no man's land,
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: well not no man's but kind of in the middle
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 1: of where it would be. Like, I think the Bills
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 1: would probably be closer to a pick them if CJ.
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: Stroud was coming back. But now because it's Davis Mills again,
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 1: Mills against the Bill, now the line is five and
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 1: a half. I mean, that seems like an overreaction to me. Man,
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: Davis Mills hasn't been that bad, even though I know
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: he's not as good as Stroud. But this line to
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: me seems way high, especially given the fact that the
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 1: Texans are a really good defensive team, and they are
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 1: the better defense of these two teams. I know the
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 1: Bills are a great offense. The Bills have the way
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 1: better offense, and that's why the public wants them. Seventy
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: four percent of the tickets only seventy one percent of
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: the cash. The Bills are very public. It's one of
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: those primetime anti public home underdogs. Man, you know, pretty
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 1: much always gonna pretty much side with the home underdog here,
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 1: although I know I didn't with the the Dallas versus
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 1: the Raiders game on Monday, I thought that was a
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 1: strong spot for Dallas. This one. I do like the
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 1: Texans plus the points here, Man, the total is not
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: very high at forty three and a half. Better defense
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: getting points is a big thing. I mean, that was,
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 1: of course not the case with the Raiders. Really, Raiders
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: defense might actually not even be They might be worse
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 1: than the Dallas. Even at this point, Dallas looks like
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: they're starting to improve their defense, so we can't make
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: fun of them as much. Now. Now for the spot here, Buffalo.
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 1: Nice win for them against Tampa Bay. Man, it was
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 1: maybe somewhat misleading because Buffalo did get a late touchdown
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 1: to cover the spread at the end and win by twelve.
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: The game was a lot closer than that. Tampa Bay
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 1: actually was winning by one in the fourth quarter. It
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 1: was a big game between two MVP candidates, Mayfield against Allen.
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 1: That was a big game. Buffalo got it done. They
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: did outgain Tampa Bay, so it wasn't like totally misleading,
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 1: but they only outgained them by whatever that is less
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: than fifty yards. Yeah, I mean Buffalo won the game.
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 1: They covered slightly misleading, I would say, even though I
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 1: got that pick right in the pick'em pools and whatever,
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 1: it wasn't one of my stronger leans or anything like that.
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 1: But I did lean to Buffalo laying the points. And
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 1: now that was the one game where I really faded
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 1: the market read last week, and I maybe got a
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 1: little bit lucky on it. But one Buffalo is coming
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 1: off that. It was also a high scoring game, and
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 1: I think the public's gonna give Buffalo a lot of
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 1: credit for that win. That was a big win over
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, and they looked really good in scoring forty
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 1: four points. Man, they are gonna face Pittsburgh up next,
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 1: which is not a primetime game though, so I don't
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 1: know how much of a look ahead spot that really
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 1: is with the Pittsburgh. I believe Pittsburgh is still leading
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: their division though, so they're leading the AFC. Nor then
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 1: it might be Aaron Rodgers' back, although I think Aaron
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 1: Rodgers is out this week because he broke his wrist,
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: his non throwing rist. Maybe it's a look at for Buffalo.
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Manda do they overlook Houston, who's sitting
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 1: at five and five maybe, and Houston's coming off of
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: a real ugly game against Tennessee. Man, And remember I
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 1: gave out Tennessee last week as one of my actual plays,
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 1: and Tennessee got the job done. It was an ugly
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 1: sixteen to thirteen win for Houston. Tennessee had chances to
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 1: win that game they covered. I know nobody wanted Tennessee
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 1: last week. I know how ugly that was. But I
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 1: thought the spot was really bad because Houston was coming
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 1: off that really big comeback against division rival Jacksonville, and
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 1: then they had to go to Tennessee, who they already
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 1: beat in a shutout earlier this year, and they had
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 1: to turn around quickly and play Buffalo on Thursday. So
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 1: it was a bad spot. It was a sandwich spot there.
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Jeffrey. I'm considering giving this out as a
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: play as I talked through this. Thank you for hanging out. Man.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know, am I about to Maybe I kind
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 1: of liked this one, man. I mean Houston, yeah, I
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 1: mean they just look so ugly. A sixteen to thirteen
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 1: win over Tennessee looked so much worse than a forty
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 1: four to thirty two win over Baker Mayfield in Tampa.
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 1: The public perception on this game is so skewed. Six
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 1: is better than five and a half, but at least
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 1: it's not seven that we missed out on. Yeah, this
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 1: is at home. I mean, the one thing is Houston
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 1: did beat Buffalo at home last year. But do you
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 1: think that is that really gonna set up that much
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 1: of a revenge spot for Buffalo? Do they really care
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 1: that watch that they lost a mid season game by
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 1: like three points or whatever it was at Houston last year.
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure. Uh. And of course Buffalo might
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 1: think that it's gonna be a bit easier because it
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 1: is not c J. Stroud. It's Davis Mills, although, like
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 1: I said, he hasn't been that bad, Like his passing
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: totals have actually been pretty much in line with what
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 1: Strouds have been, and that lower passing total was Mills
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 1: after he replaced Stroud against against Denver. So and you
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: know Buffalo, I mean, they're not a great defense, so
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 1: Mills probably should be able to move the ball here
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 1: a bit. I don't know what other injury concerns there
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 1: are on this Houston offense. Here, they're beginning a little
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: bit healthier, at least for Houston. What are we looking
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 1: at here? Uh Bills. By the way, I believe the
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 1: Bills are benching key On Coleman, Did I see that right?
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 1: And they're still without Curtis Samuel Dalton kincaid for the
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 1: For Houston, I mean, aside from Stroud there injury report
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 1: on offense at least doesn't look as significant. So yeah,
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 1: for Houston it's not as bad. I mean, Houston got
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 1: some of their wide receivers back. Nico Collins is back,
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 1: Tank Dell. I don't know when he's ever gonna come back.
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 1: He's been out all season, though that doesn't really matter.
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: They do have Christian Kirk and Jayden Higgins has been
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 1: stepping up. So this Houston offense is actually a little
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 1: bit better than people think it is for the Bills.
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that Keon Coleman thing was right,
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 1: but let me look where's he at here? He is?
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 1: Let me see, uh Keon Coleman. Oh, they sat him
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 1: in the last game. Yeah or whatever, that was what
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 1: I saw. They sat him in the last game because
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 1: he was late to a meeting or something. But he
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 1: will play in this game, probably, but I don't know
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 1: if that's really that big of a deal. Anyway, you
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 1: know what, let's do it, because I don't like the
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 1: NFL board. This we and this is actually one of
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 1: the stronger opinions I have. Let me let me see,
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 1: let's do it. We'll have some primetime menavel action here.
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 1: Mister Thursday Night needs to return here for this one man,
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 1: because of course, you know, i'm nine one on one
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 1: giving out the spread leans on the Thursday Night games
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 1: and I'm two and zero in the actual plays. It
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 1: looks like the sixes are gone. You got to take
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 1: five and a half unfortunately, But I don't know. I mean,
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 1: you could wait and maybe the six will come back,
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 1: but we'll do We'll do the five and a half
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 1: on the show for now. But if you wait, you
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 1: can get a six. It's a little bit more key.
• 2:00:36
  Speaker 1: No real reason to not wait, really to see if
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 1: the six comes back. A six is a little bit
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 1: more key than five, Like if it drops to five
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 1: or four and a half, I don't think that's as
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 1: big of a deal as even six. So but we'll
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 1: give it out of five and a half now at least,
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 1: and then I'll update the description if I do get
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 1: the sixth there. You know, I try to tell you
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 1: guys when because timing is a huge thing here too.
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 1: But we're gonna do it. Houston plus the points. I
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 1: think the line is definitely an overreaction. So we got
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 1: a bunch of plays today and that's gonna do it.
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 1: Man once again, the plays. I gotta get this video
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 1: out on Instagram. For Southern Indiana, I don't even don't
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 1: even know if the market's gonna wind up in lining
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 1: with me, but Southern Indiana plus the points in college
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 1: basketball USC minus the points, Saint Joseph's plus the points.
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 1: Those lines at nine and a half, eighteen and a
• 2:01:22
  Speaker 1: half and nine. Currently hockey, we got money line on Montreal, Detroit,
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 1: and Ottawa all three money line plays, and NFL Houston
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 1: plus the points. That's gonna do it. Learn it on
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 1: on Twitter, learn it on Instagram. Thanks guys for hanging out.
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Another two hour show. I thought it
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 1: was gonna be less than that today. College basketball is
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 1: such a grind, dude. Hopefully we have less tomorrow. Usually
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 1: Friday's pretty light on college basketball, but it's heavy on NBA.
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 1: For the most part. I'll be back then. But yeah, like,
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the show here, give me good comments, give
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 1: me a good review on Ito and Spotify, Apple and Spotify.
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 1: I mean that all helps me out too. Listening over
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 1: there helps me out. Yeah, covered in you because my
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 1: yuke channel on YouTube. You can check that out to online. No,
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 1: I haven't been very active because of my voice. Gotta
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 1: do something about it, man, And this show doesn't help.
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I gotta relax a bit and stop
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 1: exerting myself. I don't know. I I talk loud. I
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 1: mean I gotta settle down, breathe. Maybe my voice, uh yeah,
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 1: maybe I can. Yeah, maybe I can lower my voice
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit and not exert myself as much. We'll
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 1: see and page roon dot com slash learned to it
• 2:02:40
  Speaker 1: and you can get bonus ute content there. I gotta
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 1: uke Spotify feed there and I got prioritize requests. That's
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 1: gonna do it, guys. Thanks for hanging out. I appreciate it.
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 1: I will be back tomorrow. Like I said, peace for now, guys,