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What does the 25 BP drop mean for Mortgages? · Bought Borrowed and Sold

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Bob burn and Sold. Good morning,
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. It has been
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: a fun and exciting week in the real estate world.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: There's been a lot of talk about federal funds rate
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: what does that mean for the mortgage rates? And uh,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: you know today we're gonna be talking them a little
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  Speaker 1: bit about that with with our main mortgage man over here,
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  Speaker 1: Brad Smith with Cross Country Mortgage.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Was that, Brad Man, it's been a pretty cool week. Man.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: I saw you were on TV too.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Oh well, yeah, I think I saw you there too. Yeah.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: You know, it's nice when some of the local TV
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: stations reach out and ask for our opinions on things,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: and uh, yeah, you know I should just say, why
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: don't you go every Sunday morning at eight am to
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: one oh five point five and check out barn and
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Sold and you can you can find out what's going
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: on each and every week.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and in a longer form and actually gets some
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: actually more details behind it. But it was fun and
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: it was it was kind of cool.
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  Speaker 1: You know.
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  Speaker 2: They talked to both of us and actually was that
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: at the pig and one of the guys that works
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: there said that I needed to replace Pible when he
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: comes off because he saw me on the seatbown yesterday,
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  Speaker 2: so that was kind of funny. I was like, wait, what.
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  Speaker 1: I've gotten the I've gotten a few messages of like, hey,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: I saw you on TV and I thought you did
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  Speaker 1: a great job, and uh so that's always nice, Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: because I.
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  Speaker 2: Honestly, I mean not to be disparaging, because I think
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  Speaker 2: it's great they have it. But I don't watch much
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  Speaker 2: news any like, I don't go and watch a lot
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  Speaker 2: of local news, so you know, I didn't know how
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  Speaker 2: many people would see it or reach out or whatever.
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  Speaker 2: So it's kind of funny for first person with somebody
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  Speaker 2: from the from the grocery store.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, that's right. Well, we're so we're gonna
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  Speaker 1: talk about what we what we're going to see in
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  Speaker 1: the market with rates h in our next segment. But
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  Speaker 1: but that's definitely had an impact at least with with
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: news stories and different things, and so we're gonna let
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  Speaker 1: you know what that really means from a mortgage rate standpoint.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Uh here in a little bit, I do want to
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  Speaker 1: get some shout outs. Dude, Kyle Bedgood has been like, uh,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: he's been on fire.
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  Speaker 2: He's a hammer Uh, he's been on fire.
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  Speaker 1: He's going to put three homes under contract this past week.
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  Speaker 1: So I want to give a special shout out to
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  Speaker 1: Kyle Bedgood. I also want to give a special shout
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  Speaker 1: out to Chasin Heberling. And Chasing put her first home
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  Speaker 1: under contract with our team Congratts, and she was working
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  Speaker 1: with another real estate brokerage in this market, was kind
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  Speaker 1: of you know, with them for almost a couple of years,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: really could not get any train, any traction. And we
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  Speaker 1: brought her on board like thirty five days ago, and
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  Speaker 1: I was I made a post on my social media.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: If you don't, feel free to follow me or I'd
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: appreciate it if you follow me on Instagram or Facebook.
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  Speaker 1: But I made a post and given a shout out
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  Speaker 1: to Chase, and over the last month, we've given her
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  Speaker 1: over thirty opportunities. Ten of those folks she's been showing
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  Speaker 1: houses to almost on a weekly basis, and one has
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  Speaker 1: already converted into an under contract.
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  Speaker 2: So that's awesome.
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  Speaker 1: Love that. So if you're an agent in listening to
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: this and you're looking for more business, I would love
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: to have a conversation with you. You can always go
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: to our website gustigoglesgroup dot com. You can shoot me
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: a message on Instagram or Facebook, or you can shoot
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: our shoot a message to our office number two oh
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  Speaker 1: five five four to nineteen ninety six, because I am
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: looking to add a couple of agents and we have
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: business that I'd like to hook them up with for sure.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: You know, I've got a good model and a lot
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: of leads and a lot of a lot of opportunities
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: to help help somebody get growing and kind of get
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: some traction. So yeah, and then there's tons of help
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: with the alls groups. So that's awesome.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Well, thank you.
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  Speaker 2: I appreciate you saying.
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  Speaker 1: We've got today on the docket. We've got a couple
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  Speaker 1: of open houses. We've got a new listing. We've got
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  Speaker 1: another new listing. I can't tell price yet because we're
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  Speaker 1: we're mister, so I guess it's more of a coming scene.
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  Speaker 2: It's not.
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  Speaker 1: It's not live yet.
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  Speaker 2: You have to add it to the cart to see
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  Speaker 2: the price.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty much. We'll waiting on square footage to make
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  Speaker 1: sure it's accurately priced. You know that's important these days.
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  Speaker 2: You know they care, people care.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So let's uh, let's go ahead and get
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  Speaker 1: into our mortgage games, Brad, do you want to give
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: us the rules?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Gus, he's gonna go through the properties that they've
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  Speaker 2: got coming or have already. He's gonna go through the
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: details and kind of give you all the updates and
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: kind of all the things going on with that property.
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  Speaker 2: At the end, he's gonna give us the purchase price.
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  Speaker 2: Then I will give a potential down payment that a
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: bar may make, and Gusty and John will then guess
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: the thirty year fixed principal interest only monthly payment. All right,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: all right, let's jump right in.
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  Speaker 1: Our new listing of the week. This one is not
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  Speaker 1: open this afternoon, but I want to tell you about it.
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  Speaker 1: It's on almost five acres in the Center Point area
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  Speaker 1: near spring Lake Estates. Actually it's a lot number five
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  Speaker 1: of Spring Lake Estates. It's a three bedroom, one bath
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  Speaker 1: home fourteen and ten square feet on four point nine
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  Speaker 1: six acres priced at one ninety nine nine. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: how many times can you find a five acre parcel
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  Speaker 1: a but b for with a house and for two
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  Speaker 1: hundred thousand or less. So that's a pretty cool opportunity.
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  Speaker 1: And this one is at five point fifty three. Polly
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  Speaker 1: Reid Road, Polly Reid Road, and Center Point. I wonder
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  Speaker 1: who old Polly Reid is.
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  Speaker 2: We need to do a.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Little history session, John, Yeah, maybe we can get the
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: history session going. You have to figure that out by
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: the end of the show.
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  Speaker 2: Who It sounded like an anti Oakley type name or
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: something like that when I heard it when you said it.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Founding father mother's state of Alabama. Yeah, and this listening
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  Speaker 1: is courtesy of Jonathan Weaver. So Jonathan, congratulations on your
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  Speaker 1: new listing.
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  Speaker 2: Congratulations.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, buddy, Yeah, all right on nine.
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  Speaker 2: Nine, that's part of Okay, that's part of the game.
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  Speaker 2: Got you one nine. I don't know, wild things. You're
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: going to the other property. Now that's the one nine, right, Yeah?
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  Speaker 2: Three percent down, three percent down to gusty.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, all right, can I get the music cued up? Yeah,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: now we're talking. Now we're in the game. Now we're
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: in the zone.
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  Speaker 2: John, he went out of order. I was confused.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I know I did give all order. I'm messed with. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: three percent down, thank you? You know are these were
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: the new rates for the old rates.
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  Speaker 2: There's not a lot of change in the rates from
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  Speaker 2: the mortgage side, which is that I'm a.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Little nervous because I think John's been keeping his notes
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: over there, so that might put me at a disadvantage.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: I actually haven't.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: He actually hasn't moved the sheet that I gave him
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  Speaker 2: last week, So yeah, JT hasn't stolen it. Yeah, it
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: does prove that nobody else uses this chair.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: That's funny. You know I usually use that chair when
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: I come in, you know, on the random fridays I
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: come in. Yeah, and on you should make JT move
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: so you could have your chair. Yah, yeah, yeah, I
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: don't think that works like that. I mean, I feel
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: like maybe we should be more like your chair now.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: I mean I feel like you're spending more time. Yeah, yeah, poor,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: all right listening like man, I hear John melts all
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  Speaker 1: the time. Anyway, two hundred thousand dollars down, three percent down.
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  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with twelve hundred and seventeen dollars.
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  Speaker 2: Twelve seventeen for gusty. It's just I just hope JT
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  Speaker 2: doesn't listen Sunday morning.
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  Speaker 1: Probably probably snoozing.
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  Speaker 2: Yah, I'm sure he is.
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  Speaker 3: I'm gonna I'm gonna say it's uh, guess he's got
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  Speaker 3: it pretty dialed in. But I'm gonna say I don't
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  Speaker 3: want to price is right, so we'll go twelve fifty.
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  Speaker 2: Ooh, the actual payment will eleven ninety three, very close
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  Speaker 2: for both days. But Gusty gets the win just a
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  Speaker 2: little the wrong direction.
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  Speaker 1: There, I got the win.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: I got the win.
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  Speaker 1: Boom, eleven ninety three. Well, there you go. By the way.
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  Speaker 3: Polly Reed is a beloved former resident of I Center Point.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, well loved former resident. Shout out to Polly Reid.
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  Speaker 2: You can find that on Google, you sure can.
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  Speaker 1: You can find all sorts of things, probably under like
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Bham Wiki. You know. Yeah, it's actually on the city's website.
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  Speaker 1: So local wicked property.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: You got, Gusty, okay, all right?
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  Speaker 1: Five on, alright, alright, this is open today from eleven
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  Speaker 1: to one. Uh got see Ashley Stags and chris Wood
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  Speaker 1: five to one, three fifty ninth Street South, five one
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  Speaker 1: three fifty ninth Street South. This is a three bedrooms,
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  Speaker 1: two baths. We've got a new price on this. One
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  Speaker 1: of two hundred and eighty nine thousand to eighty nine
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  Speaker 1: moved to chris Wood for a three two two eighty
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  Speaker 1: nine five three fifty ninth Street. There you go, right,
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  Speaker 1: and a good many updates have been made to this
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  Speaker 1: property too.
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  Speaker 2: Great to eighty nine to eighty nine. We're gonna put
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  Speaker 2: five percent down John, five and it's on me and
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  Speaker 2: it's on you. Twenty nine, So I'm gonna say one,
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  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. Fourteen I'm gonna move to decimate place. Uh,
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  Speaker 2: fourteen fifty fourteen fifty for John.
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  Speaker 1: I feel like this is like seventeen hundred bucks. I'm
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: gonna give with seventeen hundred bucks.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: Well, the actual payment was sixteen ninety, so seventeen hundred
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  Speaker 2: and hey, this streak is dead. Oh yes, finally I'm done.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Finally in September, I win one. I'm moving down in
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the College A people.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: Not if you're Notre Dame.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Well there we go. Hey, next new listening is open
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: this afternoon from two to four and go see Ashley
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Stags again at three oh one Norman d Lane, three
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: oh one Normandy Lane in Chelsea in the courtyard, Manor Neighborhood.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: We've got a new price on this one of five
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  Speaker 1: ninety nine, five ninety nine. This was built in twenty twelve,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: four bedrooms, four baths, three thousand, one and eighty seven
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: square feet. It's got a two car garage and uh hey,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: great price of five ninety nine. Pelham School five ninety nine,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: says Chelsea. But it's Pelham Schools.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: Says Chelsea. But it's pelm right, five ninety nine. Twenty
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: percent down, okay, twenty percent down to Gusty twenty percent down,
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: twenty percent down.
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  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with thirty one oh one.
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  Speaker 2: Thirty one oh one for Gusty.
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: I would just like to point out that I am night.
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: I'm not prices writing him. What What did I have
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: written right there in the bottom of that sheet? I
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: have thirty fifty. That's what I That's what I think.
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: I think it's thirty one fifty. And by the way,
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: when you said the Courtyard Manor, I thought you're gonna
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: say court Yard by Marriotte.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Is that the one that you get a free cookie?
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: I think so it's been a while. Yeah maybe so, yeah,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: sounds right, Okay, free cookies.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it is or not.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: I don't think it is. No, I'm thinking I think
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: it's the Hilton Garden or something. No, I don't know what.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: What do we got?
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: The actual payment was two thousand and nine fifty five.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: You both were high, but Gusty gets the clean sweep.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: He's back. There will be no let's get sweep September.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: No sweep September.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Hey, we've got one in Alabaster, one fifty five Victoria
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Station in Alabaster in the sterling Gate neighborhood, four bedrooms,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: two and a half bass and uh, we're going to
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: be in the uh mid to low three hundreds. So
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: we are finishing up and finalizing our price on that.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: But one Victoria Station in Alabaster, Alabaster Schools, So yeah,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: we got that coming up. And uh, we've got one
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: coming up in Hoover at two eighty nine Laredo Drive.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: This is actually one of my flip properties, which is
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: four bedrooms and three and a half baths and it's
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: got a full basement, two car garage, and we're I
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: think we're going to be up in the high fives,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: low sixes on that one. We're determining price, but that's
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: gonna be coming up this week. I'm excited about that one.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Been working hard to get that one on the market.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: And so yeah, I know we've got a couple of
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: properties coming down the pipeline. So that's nice. That's cool,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: good stuff. Hey, we got a couple of buyer needs.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: We've got somebody that's looking for a house in Bluff Park.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: They're looking up to four to twenty five something that
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: ideally needs a little bit of work and has a
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: good lot. We've got also somebody looking for a single
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: story home in Shelby County with a pool. We've been
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: looking for a minute with this person. They're looking really
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: up to about four hundred and twenty five thousand dollars
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: as well. So if you've got a home that matches
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: those criteria, please reach out to our team at Gustygoulisgroup
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: dot com or you can go to h You can
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: call two five four to two nineteen ninety sixteen, color
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: text that number. Hey, guess what time it is. That's right,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: it's testimonial time.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: I got a couple of five star reviews to talk
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: about today. The first one comes from Sarah. TJ was
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: fantastic and went on the bumpy journey with us while
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: we purchased our home. He handled it with grace and
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: was a ray of sunshine during the tough times. Well, Sarah,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: congratulations on your new home. And TJ, congratulations on another
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: five star review. I like how we had, you know,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: every I'd love to say that every transaction is perfect,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: but quite frankly.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Well yeah, can I just say I know this would
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: be terrible and there's not many that's a good thing. Yes,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: you know they do main tweets, yes, yes, like like
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: the ones that are just like this, like.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Can we give reviews of our clients?
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: This next one comes from Kim. We had a seamless
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: experience with Carla Dilaberto. We are a military family and
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: we're connected to her by an affiliated company in North Carolina.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: She worked with us while she was on vacation, always
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: making us feel heard and took Tom to listen to
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: our needs. A blessing came with an off market home,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: and Carla was a strong advocate for our needs. Thank you, Carla. Well, Kim,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: congratulations on your new home in Birmingham. And Carla, congratulations on.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Another five star review.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: All right, that's our five star review segment. Ladies and gentlemen,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: it was. If you want to be the next five
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: star review, go to Gustygilisgroup dot com and say I
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: want to buy or sell a house. That's as easy
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: as it takes. You can also get a free home
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: evaluation on there. Yeah, yeah, within minutes, pretty quick, that's easy, seamless.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Gustygeilisgroup dot com is where you can go. Hey, y'all,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: stay tuned. We are going to talk about what we
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: with a Fed Funds rate coming down a quarter point
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: this week, how does that impact you? How does that
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: import impact mortgage rates? Stay tuned. Bob Bournous will be
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: right back. All right, welcome back to bot Bardons Sold.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: And you've probably been watching the news, watching all the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: different stories on the internet. The Federal Funds rate reduced
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: the rate by a quarter percent, and you know a
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: lot of people think that is directly related to the
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: mortgage interest rates. And you know, luckily we've got Brad
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Smith with a cross country mortgage in here to tell
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: us the real deal.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: The real deal. Yes, I mean, if anything, rates have
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: probably gone up a little bit since the announcement yesterday,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: and I mean very little, but mortgage rates have probably
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: gone up a little bit. Again with what we talked about,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: it's in real time. So the twenty five basis point
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: reduction to the Fed rate was already built into our pricing.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: So everything that really came from yesterday was going to
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: be what was said afterwards in FED Chair Powell's press
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: conference after the meeting, from his comments and from the
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Q and A session, and that's what I mean. Yesterday
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: was the first time I've gone and made sure to
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: watch the press conference live, and just because I feel
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: like we've gotten so many so many things are being
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: dissected from it, I wanted to see it, hear it,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: and be able to make kind of my own own
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: decisions on what we're gonna do going forward. And he
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: was just very non committal across the whole board and
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: honestly admitted as much that they were as a group,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: were confused on what to do. And so I think
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: that got everybody a little hesitant because they've, you know,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: they've been the main focus has been inflation and not
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: as worried about labor market. Have now we're like, oh,
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: crap market, labor market and it's and it's not strong.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's still the unemployment rate is still
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: in a pretty good number historically speaking, but it's going
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: the wrong direction. It's getting there quicker and quicker. He
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: made some weird comments on some of the what what
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: may be causing some of the unemployment I mean the
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: unemployment kind of increasing, employment slowing down a little bit,
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: which I thought just really more muddy the water on that.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: But the biggest thing, that the biggest takeaway is, and
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: you know you've heard me talk about it on here
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: a couple of times. You know, our economic history is
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: pretty pretty short lived if you really look at it
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: over you know, the last one hundred hundred and twenty years.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, things move quick. So for things that happened
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: for the first time ever, to me is not that surprising,
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: and I'm not saying it's a full first time ever.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: But for this FED group having inflation still kind of
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: creeping up a little bit at a little higher pace
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: than they want it, but employment to be kind of
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: being a little concern about what where employment's going. Those
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: two are kind of in conflict. So usually when you
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: start seeing the labor slow down, inflation would be coming
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: down because there's not as much dollars being spent. And
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: so with inflation is still ticking up and unemployment going up,
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: they're kind of not working together. So the Fed's not
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: making a long term commitment on what they're going to
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: do with the rates going forward, and you know, it
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: goes back to some of the stuff we've talked about too,
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: like just crazy reporting, Like I'm getting text saying like
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: it's so so, you know so so Pywell said that
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: it's likely to have two more cuts this year. I'm like,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: he never said that as a matter of fact. If anything,
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: he said, hey, it's going to be meeting by meeting
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: because we don't know. We got to keep which I
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: was fine with. You know, it was kind of on
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: those things like he was he was making sure they
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: could stay fluid. Yeah, and so and so and so.
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: He was very noncommittal with a lot of his answers
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: because they don't know what to do with it with
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: inflation kind of still creeping up and unemployment also creeping up.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: So when you show a weaker labor market but inflation
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: is still there, they didn't. They can't. It's hard for
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: them to say. You know, if inflation was showing the
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: reduction they thought, and they were getting these warning signals
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: from the labor market, we probably would have seen a
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: fifty bit cut yesterday in a commitment to at least
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: fifty more this year.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: And maybe I notice one person voted for that.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: So one person did, and it's his first meeting. It
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: was Miron's first meeting as an etress, so so I
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: think he was going in there making sure he knew
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: everybody knew which side he was on, Like he knew
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: that wasn't going to be what happened. Inter fact, he
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: descended he didn't. He did. He was the only FED
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: member that did not vote yesterday or go along with
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: it because he was, uh, he wanted the fifty bip
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: cut and so but but majority they agreed on it.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: But it's but to know what they're going to do
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: throughout the remainder of the year is where they really
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: were noncommittal on any of that. So the market for
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: markets responded, you know, if we if he would have
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: come out and said, hey, we're definitely doing two more
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: cuts this year. We've all agreed on that at least
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: twenty five BIPs. We're going to keep an eye on
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: the labor and then and the tariff impact on the
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: on the inflation, and then we can you know, and
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: then if we need to do more or less, we will.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: But he didn't say that he was you know, it
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: was and as a matter of fact, the dock plot
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: that we've talked about before kind of showed that. So
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: of the nineteen FED members that doc plot after they
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: think the rates should be by the end of the year.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: I just want to I have the screenshot real quick,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: just to give you quick numbers, and then I'll kind
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: of get over it. But basically one voting member so
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: we should have a hike in the rate by the
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: end of the year. So we like we wash out
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: this quarter. We just did six want no more cuts.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: Now you've got seven saying seven of the nineteen saying
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: either go up or nothing. Two of them want twenty
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: five BIPs and cuts, nine want fifty BIPs, and one
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: wants one hundred and twenty five basis points and cuts,
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: which we're assuming is the same FED member that voted
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: for fifty yesterday, thinking we're very restrictive, we need to
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: make a move. But so if you look at that
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: and you've got you've got ten that think we should
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: be keep bringing it down throughout the rest of the year,
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: and we've got nine saying do nothing or raise it
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: by the end of the year. So I mean, you
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: see they're split as a group. So so the markets
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: are not building in now in twenty.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: This is a group that's not typically split.
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: Not split. This not completely where it's like we should
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: be doing any moves or no moves. Maybe like somebody
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: says fifty, somebody says seventy five. But I do think
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: it's healthy and it does show we're kind of in
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: a weird balancing act of not sure what the best
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: route to go is. And I think I think some
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: are still heavily weighted on inflation, and some of them
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: are deeply now more concerned about the labor market. And
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: you know, when when you start showing the labor market stuff,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: it is, it is a concern. I mean, it's something
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: we're going to have to figure out because I don't know,
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: it's the first time in a while we've had less
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: job creations and job losses, so there's not a one
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: to one ratio. So if you lose your job, there's
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: not a job necessarily for you available. And that's the
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: first time in a while that's been the case. So
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: that that causes for some concern.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: How do they factor in like small businesses and stuff
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: like that.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: That's that And he even referenced that yesterday about being
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: completely you know, being very hard to predict, because that's
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: that birth death model. So it's it's these these amount
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: of businesses went out of business that should have meant
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: this many more new businesses started. Is how many jobs
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: that should have come from it. And it's pretty heavy weight,
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: but it I mean, it's a guestimate. And he did
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: say like the one of the things they need and
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: that that continues to decline. They need better response rates
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: on their serchase to get the accurate numbers. They said
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: their sponse rates are as bad as they've ever been
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: from small businesses and businesses across on actually getting the numbers.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: So there are a lot of you know, inferences in there,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: and it's because they're not getting the data back from
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: the from the companies.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Well the companies probably don't want to give them the data. Yeah,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, let's be real. Yeah, so I.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: Know, it's definitely interesting going on this too because yeah,
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: he made a weird comment about the immigration and employment
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: too that just kind of was like, I don't know
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: about that. So anyway, just muddy the waters a little bit.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: So we're kind of flat.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: But yeah, well anyways, well rates are right around you know,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: the low sixes, sixes and then some government products in
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: the midfield five.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: So it's still he still great. I mean, I mean
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: we're two years ago we were at eight percent correct,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: So there we go. Hey.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: For any real estate needs, go to Gustygilsgroup dot com.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: For any mortgage needs, go to brad Smith Loans dot com.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Thank you as always for and listening to running Sold
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: and we will see you next time.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: Appreciate y'all, Thank you, Thanks Brev