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America's Suez Moment: Why the Iran War is a Historic Humiliation | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Silk and
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Steal podcast. I'm your host Carl Za. Today I have
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: back on this show our returning guests, Arnold Bertrand, a
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: French entrepreneur currently residing in Malaysia. Arnold right prolifically on
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Twitter and on substack on geopolitics, mostly pertaining to China,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: but also pertaining the relationship that EU has in this
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: changing uh, in this changing world. UH. The reason, first
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: of all, welcome back to the show, Arnold, Thanks thanks
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: for coming.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you for inviting me back.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: And the reason I wanted to talk to you today
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: is I want to talk to you about the French
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: and the European response to this war so far. And
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I know you actually wrote an article how this is
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the first multipolar war war on your substack, So if
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: you like to talk about that to my audience as well,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: that would be great.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Sure, I mean, maybe we can start with with
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: that because that was kind of the big picture view
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: of the war, and then then we can dive in
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: the European response. So my point basically in the email
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: What's it Cale is I wrote it because many people
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: were saying that Iran was winning strategically but not technically,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: which is typically the type of thing you say when
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: someone is actually losing.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: You know. The comparison I made in my article was that, uh,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: you know, it's it's the type of thing that a
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: kid who gets bullied in the high school and sort
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: of locked in the locals by the by the bullies
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: it has himself you know later in life they will
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: all work for me because everyone knows that you know,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: Jack's peak in the high school. Uh that you know
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: that kid is actually losing if you look at it. Uh,
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: So you know, someone winning strategically is like the political
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: equivalent to that. On My point in the article was
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: that no, actually, Iran is you know, unexpectedly. I think
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: many people didn't expect that. Uh they Wereso winning major
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: tactical victories. So you know what but I was showing
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: is that and that's quite incredible when you think about it. Uh,
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: they can say weeks in advance if you hit us
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: that way. Like for instance, there was this whole story
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: around strikes on Iran's uh nuclear station called Nantas or
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Nathans not sure how to how to pronounce it, and
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: then Iran had said, you know, if you ever try
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: that that said that weeks in advance, uh, We're gonna
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: retaliate by hitting Demona, which is the Israeli nuclear sites,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: which obviously is one of the most protected places on
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: earth because behind the full defenses of of both the
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: US and Australo and so isral heats Natans. And guess
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: what Iran managed, you know, forty eight hours also afterwards
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: within was to hit Demona, not once, but twice. So
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: that's quite you know, impressive capabilities to say in advance
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: we're going to hit that side, which is the most
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: protected sites, the most tragic sides uh in, in the
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: whole of the of the Middle East, and and to
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: manage to hit it twice. So there is that. There
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: is of course, of course Hormus, which is you know,
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: major tactical victory. It's you'rn showing that they can actually
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: have a major impact on the global economy with which
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: is a lot of leverage. If it wasn't leverage, you
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: wouldn't have Trump, you know, in such a state, you know,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: inserting them on social media like he just did for Easter,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: or asking China for help, which is also an incredible thing,
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: like you know, given Trump's ego, it mustn't be easy
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: for him to beg China for help and to get refused,
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: which was predictable on begging the Europeans for help on
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: fun so it shows that you know, Iran actually has
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: a squad, a lot of leverage and ways to hurt
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: in retaliation on lasting, which I think was also quite meaningful.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: Then may Trump walk back his trit at least once
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: when when he set his first deadline I think it
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: was five days originally, where he said open homers or
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: we will destroy your electricity infrastructure on Iran said, well,
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: if you do that, then we will be you know,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: make the entire region and inhbitable because we can destroy
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: desalination plans on the you know, so many countries rely
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: almost entirely on on that, which includes his tread by
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: the way, uh, but also Saudi Arabia, Uh, you know,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Bahrain and so on and so forth. They could literally
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: rundle the whole region uninhabitable, and Trump walked back. Sorry.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: The first deadline was forty eight hours, and then he
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: extended it to five days and then to ten days,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: and the new tended deadline is today. I think if.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Actually he just extended. He just extended, Uh, he doesn't
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: have another deadline now, so so he said, uh, yesterday
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: he said Iran has another forty eight hours to respond
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: before we go new clear. You know, he did say,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: we go new clear, but we will bump them back
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: to stone ages. So from now we speak, it's another
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: twenty four hours until the new Trump deadline. When he
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: threatened it's gonna go after you runs power, power grids
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: and bridges, he says it's Tuesday, it's gonna be bridge day,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: and he said it the timeline at Tuesday at a
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: pm Eastern, I think and I saw Iranian embassy. Okay, uh,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: there's Iranian embassy. Were great, they were like, what are
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: we doing that the Epstein Island time? What are we
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: talking about? Why why don't we send it to one
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: a M. You know, like if hem is too late,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: why don't you send it to one AM? And they're
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: great and showing.
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah yeah. I Also one that made me laugh was
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: in response to Trump saying open almost that what I sorry?
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: We that's the key? Uh that's pretty good.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: They actually follow up with another time where they said
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: that the key is behind the flower pots for our friends,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: for our friends, and allies the keys behind the flower part.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: But now for Israel and the United States, yeah they
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: were great.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And I think that's gonna be the most
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: important consequence of this war. I think on it is
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: what the Iranians themselves are saying mm hm, that they
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: want to retain ownership of Homus, I think together with
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: the Omanish, because you know Homus there is Iran to
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: the to the north and oman to to the south,
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: so it's really joint a giant thing and make it
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: some sort of toll booth system. And countries are already
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: pain for or passage. We've even seen France do it,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: and we don't know if you surely if they paid,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: but French ship went through, and it is a fact
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: that right now you can only go through if you pay.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: So you know, if you put two together, I think
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: the paid and Iran published I think today or yesterday
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: they're on ten day ten point plan to end the war.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: I think you know, three or four of those points
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: are about Hormus on how they will convert it to
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: some sort of turbooth system. So what this means is
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: that you know, that would be the end of freedom
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: of navigation. Uh in in the middle is for for
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: the U s UH, which is extremely significant because it's
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: a complete withdrawing of the security architecture of the region. UH.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: And it would also mean that you know, within at
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: some point UH the other countries in the region. UH.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: If they ever want to sell earl again, they will
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: need to make nice with the with the Iranians because
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: they control the passage for the earl to go to
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: to the customers. Yeah. So we miss things that in
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: time without more average Yeah.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it means the US Navy Worship can no longer
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: have freedom of navigation to person golf. In fact, the
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: U S. S. Abraham Lincoln has put a thousand climate
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: between a cell and the Iranian coast now is hiding
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: behind the mountains of Oman, so you will not be
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: hit by Iranian missiles. And then you have you have
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: the new US Attack Group Amphibious Attack Ship. This is
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: the US's Tripoli which is carrying the US Marine Expeditionaryner
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Unit twenty five hundred men toward the Iran operation theater.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: And they also have been I just saw a recent
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: tweet on x that they also have come under Iranian
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: missile branch. So they also have turned away, So nobody
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: is going through the straight horror Moose without permission. And
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Uranians make a good point because they say, look, everybody
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: pays when it goes through the Suez Canal, they pay
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: to Egypt, and everybody pays when you go through Panama Canal. Well,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: now you have to use the Iranian territorial water, you know,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: because as you point out, the straight oh horror Moose
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: is split between the Iranian and Omani territorial water, so
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: you have to use one or two sides. Right now,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: the only ships that's transitting a straight or Hormuz are
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: transitting on through the Northern route through the Iranian territorial water.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: So they have to pay a toe. Uh there's not
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: that nothing that you know, anybody else can do about it.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: You know. This is why I think this has led
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: to Trump's out uh two social outbursts. He said, open
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: the freaking street, you know, open the f street. I
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: mean it's, uh, it's totally a sign that you are winning,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: right when you are yowling on Twitter to open the
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: freaking street straight.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, exactly, it's uh, it's I mean, I mean
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: it basically, it's it's come to approach because it shows
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: how much leverage the Iranians with with that by being
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: so obviously outraged by this, and it just trengthens Iran's
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: determination to uh to to to hold the threat the
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: Straits on the on the irony, of course, is that
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: you know, before the war he started, the Strait was opened,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: and now he's making it the primary objective of the
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: war to open the Straits is in fact admitting what
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: a massive suck up his war was, because now the
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: primary objective of the war is to undo the consequence
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: of the war. So yeah, it's it's just completely completely senseless,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: and there is a good chance, in fact, I think
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: it's primer certain that this will therefore be seen as
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: you know, the US's Suez moment, you know, the Straights
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: christ is when was that in the nineteen when.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I think nineteen fifty three or nineteen fifty.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: Was it okay? Yeah, with which was you know, the
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: the Europeans trying to assert control with respect to the
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: stress can much like Trump is trying to do now.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: And then at the time it was the US basically
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: taking the side of Egypt saying no, you guys, leave Egypt.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: If I remember correctly, it was Britain, France, and Israel
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: together trying to assault control and then the Americans taking
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: the the counter point on signing with Egypt.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, nineteen fifty six, So I was off by a
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: couple of years. It will happened in nineteen fifty six,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: and it was both United States and the Soviet Union
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: supported Egypt because on the on the US side, it
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: told the French and the British, look, you know, all
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: your military expedition require American financing. We're not paying for it.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Who are not gonna pay for for you to wage
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: your war in Swiss Canal. You know, if you can
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: keep going, we're gonna cut you off. So that you know,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: that's that's what the that's that's like the pants off
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: moment for the British empires. They don't have an empire anymore. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: On the I think it's there are a lot of
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: similarities here because it's you know, it's also shows here
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: the limits of American power. I mean, the war is
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: not finished. Maybe they will, uh, they will in the
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: end managed to regain control of Homers or at least
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: regain freedom of navigation. The mates. They might actually even
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: you know, nuke Iran. The way Trump is is speaking,
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: you can be brightly worried because it's speaking of you know,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: in vocabulary. Is that invocabulary that uh you could understand
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: as completely destroying the country. Uh, you know, yesterday referred
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: to Iranians as animals that can be completely destroyed on sand.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: So you know, that's that's pretty worrying. But I think
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: the most likely scenario is Iran retains control of homos
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: countries as there the world's countries, as they are starting
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: to do. Now just accept that fact on the you know,
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: pay for shipping that they're doing swets or all depending canna.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: There was actually a BBC article a few hours earlier
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: in which they supposedly interview a Uranian informant, and this
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Uranian guy says, oh, we walk them, We welcome the bombing,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: you know, in fact, you know, I would even walk
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: on atomic bomb drop on the regime. And then a
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: few like three hours later, I think even a BBC
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: handler realized this is too insane. They're like, nobody is
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: gonna buy this propaganda, so they quietly removed the part
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: about atomic bombing. Frond the Funk found their article without
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: issuing any formal correction or any statement like that. They
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: just removed that bad line, and it's I think they
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: are definitely building up a case, you know, like they're
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: trying to prepare public opinions for escalation of this war,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: because I don't think there's a you know, Trump, there's
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: an off I don't think there's an off ramp for Trump.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Trump has been looking for off ramp, but I don't
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: think it's up to him right now to to end
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: the war. You know, the Iranian side has been very
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: clear what their demands are. Their demand is they need
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: a guarantee that US and Israel will not attack them again.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: And what that means is essentially for US to pull
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: out of West Asia, pull out all those military bases
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: has already been devastated by Irani Jones and Missel attack.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: And for that and that for US, I think is
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: basically would mean the end of the US empire in
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: West Asia. You know, if the US with jew this
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: is it, that's that's that's the end of the US
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: empireing in West Asia. I think this is why Trump
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: finds it very hard to call Couch just simply declared
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: victory and go home, because for going home right now
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: essentially amount to American defeat. Yeah.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there is an interesting theory with regard to the
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: the co pilot or the It was not a copelt.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: I think it was the weapons guy in the jet
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: that the that got just in the mountains and that
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: they found. The theory again, not sure if it's true,
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: but you know, man, it was a cover for an
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: operation to get Iran's uranium because the planes, the cargo planes,
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: transport planes that London, London near a town called Isafan. Again,
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: I don't speak persions, so I might budge the names.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: Which is the site where uh they do their top
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: secret nuclear research. Uh, you know, it seems a bit weird,
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: Uh to land hundreds of troops and Trump confirmed yesterday
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: that it was hundreds in in you know, deep into
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: Iran just to retrieve one one guy. Uh, you would
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: think you you might want to do that with you know,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: a small special forces team or something. And uh, you
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: know the fact that they had this uh you know,
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: those two transport planes, several helicopters on some points to
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: quite major operations. So the theory goes, they tried to
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: do that under that uh saving privates whatever his name is, Uh,
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: cover story uh and and the operation failed on you know,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: there was a major uh a major battle. Several planes
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: got uh got destroyed on there to to retreats uh
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: And actually you know that might have been the upfront uh,
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: the sort of win that Trump may have been looking for, like,
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: you know, we got the iranium we can and the war.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: That's a major win. Guys, all good on the on
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: that seats on. You know, since that didn't happen, uh,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: you know, in a way by winning in in in
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: that uh in that's better. Maybe the Iranians also length
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: and length and the war. That's just a theory. Uh yeah,
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: uh so I think.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: I think, I think by Oxen Razor, that theory is
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: most makes sense right now. It makes much more sense
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: than the official story of this heroic, Hollywood esque rescue
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: where they they blow up like three hundred million dollars
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: worth of equipment to save this one weapon specialist you
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: know us they said, oh we leave no one bed.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, it makes a great story, as it makes
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: a great propaganda story. It is a propaganda win, you know.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: But that's the only kind of win the United States
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: is going for right now. If we actually look at
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: how how how all the timeline lines up. First, we
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: have the league that says Trump wanted the plan to
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: go forward to do a rate on Iranian nuclear site
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: with special forces to retrieve the Iranian Iran Uran's Uranian materi,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: which is, by the way, it's the stupidest plan to
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: come out of Washington. And that's saying something. And then
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: you get the news that Pete heads that fires like
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: what twelve generals, he fired, a dozen generals, including the
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: chief of Staff of the army, you know, the highest
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: ranking army officer gets fired. These guys probably told him, look,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: this plan is insane. You are you are mad to
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: come up with this Hollywood rescue a plan to raise
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Uranians a nuclear weapon material. And then we have the
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: news of US plane shooting dropping from the sky like flies, right.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: I think Uranian took out like some something around like
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: twelve plane, twelve aircraft in the span of forty eight hours.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: And why why did that happen in such a short window.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: You know, you have to ask that question because up
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: to this moment, the United States and Israel have been
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: flying their plane to very close to the Uranian border
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: where there will fire standoff munition like like the guided
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: missile UH cruise miss out into Uran. So so they
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: do not expose themselves to the anti air defense of Iran.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: And this is why we have There hasn't been that
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: much shut down yet. And yet you know, if you
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: look at where they've been shutting down, this is all
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: over Iranian territory. So why are they risking this right now?
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: So I think the most plausible explanation is the plane
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: went in uh you know, first to scout around for
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: the for a theater operation and this is where you
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: get the F fifteen gets shut down, and then then
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: they have they still went ahead with this insane plan
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: plan you know, of course it turned out to be
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: a major fiasco. They try to go land in a tempor.
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: Uh agricultural airstrip in the middle of Isfahan, which is
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: near the Iran nuclear site, and of course Iranians their
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: air defense system activated again.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Pete HEDGESV a month ago he said we're gonna have
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: air spiity in coming days. Well it's a month later.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think United States is a very obvious. US
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: do not have air spiity, and they have the end
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: which this massive, massive debacle where they got tons of
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: planes get get had to either crash land, will force
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: under camp under fire, or had to crash land. And
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: this included two see one thirty Hercules transport planes. These
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: are huge planes, this Hercules plane. They can hold like
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: hundreds of personnel. They can hold helicopters. I mean they
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: the idea that they will fly too, not one, two
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: more than it's more than two, because we know two
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: of them got got got desjoyed, so it could be
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: more than two. We know at least two got flow
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: in for this retrieval one pilot. It does does not
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: make sense at all. And and so this and like
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: you said, Trump conferred hundreds of special forces were involved.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: So I think the most you know, if we use
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Oxen's razors, the most simplest explanation is they actually went
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: ahead with the Trump's insane plan of trying to reach
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: the uranium material. Except it's a huge debacle. So they
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: try to salvage this by spinning it as a propaganda
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: victory by saying we left no one behind. You know,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: screw the three hundred million dollar equipment. We don't care
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: about that because we want to make sure our American
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: pilot is safe. And and I think the fact that
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: both Trump and Pete Headset. They're basically TV personality, right
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: the pet head Set. His previous job before becoming Secretary
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: of War was a live show hosts on Fox. So
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: these guys, they know how to play to the TV audience,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: and so they go for the maximum Hollywood style scenario.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, like, this is all we It's so hero
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: and rescue. It showed that, you know, not only US
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Air special Forces have the capability of going deep into
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: the enemy territory get our guys safely back. And also
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: we don't care about the equipment lost, you know, like
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: three hundred million equipment loss, that's a nothing for us.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: We were willing to risk that just for the life
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: of our pilot. I think it makes a great story.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: There will probably be a Hollywood movie in the pipeline already.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, like you said,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: this does not change the strategic equation on the ground,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: This does not help them open the street hor Moose,
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: and this does not strengthen Trump's hand at the negotiation table.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: But it will be a tremendous h you know, propaganda victory.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: They don't make a lot of money from from when
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: the Hollywood movies come out, and you might even convince
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of people, including people in the global South
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: about oh, you know, United States would leave no one behind,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: but straight over Mossia still.
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: Close by the way. I'm not even sure it is
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: a propaganda victoria because if I look around on Twitter, like,
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: no one believes the story. Even in the US, most
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: people are extremely skeptical. So I think we are not. Like,
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: there is so much distrust, instinctive distrust of Trump and
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: his crew that I don't think that they can't even
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: do good propaganda anymore. There was this incredible statement by
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: the former head of the CIA, who you know himself said, uh,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: it trusts the Iranian more than the Trump administration, which
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: which is a crazy statement when when when you think
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: about it's that the head of the CIA, I mean
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: the former director of the CIA during the war says
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: he trusts the enemy. Uh, then in is on government.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: So it shows the that that tready no one trusts Trump.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: I mean so far when Rani said that the so far,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: when Iranian says a fighter plane went down, a fighting
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: plane went down, when they said they took out the
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: head uss Ford, you know US says, oh no, that's downsense,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: But we did have a laundry fire, as the US
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: has four the last thirty hours that took out all
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: our beds. And then then the ship itself have to
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: go go back in port for repair for fourteen months,
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I mean like and then then Trump himself come out
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: and say, oh, there's seventeen missiles coming their missiles kick
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: coming on the rights and coming on the left, and
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: it just totally blow the sentcom story to to smit
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: the rings, you know, thanks, thanks, Thankfully Trump has no filter,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: you know, we get a lot of exposure just from
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: his mouth. But yeah, Uranian so far has been proven
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: they're a lot more reliable than the United States, especially syncome.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, which is actually bad news, I think for for
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: all of us because at the end of the day,
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: it means that, you know, it will be extremely even
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: if the US wants to end the war, you know,
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: God knows if they want to, uh, it would be
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: extremely difficult for them to do that because simply there
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: is zero tru uh. You know, the last two times
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: the Iranians did tried to do a deal negotiation with
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: with Trump, he literally keeps the negotiatos started an operation,
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: you know, the one last year on the world this year,
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: So why on earth were there the try fill time?
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: So it's not it's not just twice, it's it's not
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: not just last time, because because more recently, because more
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: recently there was a Pakistan China joint proposal for peace
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: and right and you know Pakistan, Pakistan is situated very
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: strategically because it has a very close relationship with GCC countries.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: He also has close relationship with the United States and China.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: So for Pakistan Prime Minister Foreign minister to travel to
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: China to meet Chinese Foreign minister, you know, this plan
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: was already has been discussed with GESS in countries and
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: probably they're already in foreign United States. And soon after
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: that the five point Joint Proposal for Peace came out.
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: You heard the news that either US or Israel try
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: to take out the X foreign Minister of Iran, and
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: you have to ask a question, why are you attacking
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: an X official a retired government official. It turns out
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: the X four an Minister of Iran was actually involved
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: in talks with Pakistan to arrange a meeting with JD Vance.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: You know, so obviously somebody that does not want negotiation,
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: and my hunch is it's probably Israel. It's probably Israel
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: that's that's really trying to put a stop to this negotiation.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: So for or for Irani insiety, you will be very
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: difficult for them to trust any kind of peace overture
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: coming from United States and Israel again, because this is
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: this is fun first, second, third time, you know, like
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: for me once, shang, I'm you for me twice on me,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Like how why would Iranian take any you know, any
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: kind of peace overture from the United States seriously at
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: this point, especially when they are winning the world public opinion,
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: you know, right now, there's the support. I think the
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: global support of Iran is the sky is like at
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: historical high and even within the United States, a lot
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: of Americans are rooting for Iran to win this war.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually wouldn't be surprised if there are more
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: Americans supporting Iran than the government in this war, which
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: which is pretty crazy when when you think about it,
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: you know, if you there were no pours around that
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: that you know, there were pours around you know, do
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: you believe for instance, that Trump killed you know, did
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: that trick on that on that school with all the
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: school girls and I think you had like sixty or
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: something person of Americans. Uh say yes. So if if
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: the majority of Americans think the government is you know,
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: they're killing school girls, obviously they they don't support support that.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: So yeah, you know, judging by Twitter, which is you know,
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: heavily American, Uh, you know, colored very Uh at least
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: the bubble, I mean a lot of Americ cash that
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: expressed themselves on Sun even like Naga figurls are against
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: the war. So yeah, I think that there are not
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: many people defending its other. Yeah.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, like look at the right after the school,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: the girls' school bombing. You know, if first you have
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: the different denial, they try to spread the rumors say
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: it was a Uranian anti air defense missile that hit it,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: and then it turns out that it was actually a
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: Tomhawk missile and Israel does not have Tomhawk missiles, so
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: you could only come from the United States. And later
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: it comes out US military was employee palanteer and the
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: claw claude AI in target selection and volunteer is incredibly
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: unpopular inside the United States for their role in government
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: surveillance uh of US citizens. So you know, people would
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: cheer when you're around in the South and volunteer data centers. Uh.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: You know when when when you're around the clear palenteer
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: to be a legitimate target, everybody had cheered, you know,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: they want you around to succeed, which kind of lead
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: me to, Uh, the next thing I want to discuss
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: with you is the European and the French response, because
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: this is very interesting because very recent uh, either beginning
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: the European were just pretty much aligned behind United States
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: condemning you wrong for its aggression against you know, GCC
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: countries and and calling you wrong to to to stop
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: fighting and and and return to negotiation, which is completely
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: hypocritical and ridiculous. But but more recently France, together is
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: and China they actually veto a you and resolution table
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: by the GCC country that authorized military operation against you wrang.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: So this is very because a lot of right way
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Marca Americans are crying betrayal on Twitter right now saying,
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: oh France, there there, there was the betrayal, there was
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: an enemy. Why why? Why is? Why why did cuttainly
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: France take that position? Because you are friends, That's why
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: I'm putting you on the spot and asking you this.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, nobody, nobody is perfect. So, I mean, if you
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: look at that result tradition, what the war in Iran
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: is is uh, you know, a variation of the biggest
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: read line in the U AND Charter, which is no
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: wars of flagration. UH. You know, it's it's the worst
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: violation of a country's sovereignty that you can do is
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: UH is a war flagration. And in fact, the very
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: reason that of the reason for being of of the
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: u N is after World War Two, which was defined
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: by wars of flagration, you know, by Japan, by Hitler
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: and so on, to put on rules to forbid that
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: so on. Iran is obviously a characteristic war flagration because
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: you know, Iran didn't do anything to provoke provoke the US.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: They didn't attack first that they just got attacked, right
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: like everyone has seen that. And what the UN resolution
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: was trained to do is to basically UH kind of
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: validates that war of aggression by saying, uh that we
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: the u N, the global community needs to basically get
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: behind the US war objectives in reopening almost uh. And
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: you know, fight Iran in in in that war, which
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: would have been you know, the world upside down, like
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: completely crazy. Like the ones that need to be condemned
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: the ones that the global community needs to you know,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: ideally should punish, even though it's impossible. But you know
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: what should happen if the rules were applied was Israel
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: and the US the aggressors in this instance should be
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: punished and the wars should end by them ending it.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: You know, they started did then they need to end it, Uh,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: not by the rest of the world, you know, starting
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: to cove fight with them, to be co very cob
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: very gerant with them against against Iran. So on principle,
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: that resolution was crazy. On unprinciple, it's right to opposite.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: So I don't think that France necessarily wanted to you know,
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: of course they will present it that way, like France
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: sides with you know, China, Russia, you know, uh looking
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: at things always through camp uh viewpoints. But no, it's
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: it's just siding with with the U N actually with
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: with international law, with the proper rules with that that
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: should exist in not rewarding aggression, because if we at
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: this time, you know, then there is no you know,
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: what are the consequences like every time the US attacks
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: another country than what the the Global Committee is it's
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: gonna join them to co attack that that that country
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: and validate it. I mean, what kind of president were
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: setting here? So I think that was more the thinking.
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: I don't think that, uh, you know, France was necessarily
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: trying to be for be with Russia on China. Of course,
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: in France there is still that sort of small tradition
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: of uh, you know, opposing Americans. You know, Dougald was
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: all over that. And then you had Chirac in in
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: in two thousand and three at the u N again
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: against the war in Iraq. I mean it was Dominique
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: de Ville pand the foreign minister, she likes foreign minister.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: So there is that specific French tradition. But at the
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: end of the day, it's more trying to do the
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: right thing. It was the right thing to oppose the
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: war in Iraq. It is the right thing to oppose
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: this resolution now, uh, than trying to side with with
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: anyone in particular. You know. I'm I actually think that
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: Macon overall has been horrible in foreign policy in this war,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: in including in this war, because you know, if you
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: go back to the very beginning of the war, I
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: think just within a couple of days after after the
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: US and this started the war. There was a joint
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: statement by Macon's Tarmer and Meltz I think uh that
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: basically said, yeah, that's the right thing to do, uh,
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: which would uh, you know, do regime change in Iran.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: And we completely approve what the US is doing in
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: in effect, I mean in the diplomatic terms and swim.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: So you know, Mac is no saints here.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: And that's why it's so bad. He's always doing one
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: thing and the other. There is zero coherence, zero principle. Uh.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I see a lot of people praising Macon
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: out there and saying, yeah, France is sticking it to
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: the American, But it's just, you know, that's Macon's ki
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: characteristic is a mentan meaning he's trying to please everyone
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: at the same time. So he will he will be
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: against international law when they for international load the next day,
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: so that you know, everyone has uh has something to
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: please them. But in the end, the I'm zuba entaganizing everyone.
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: That's why it's so unpopular in Frons.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah it's so true. Uh, but what what can Europe do?
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't I don't even know. It's funny
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: because you see all these you EU propaganda on Twitter
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: all the time. Everybody say, oh, together, we're strong, and
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: they will put a graph compare EU to US or China.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: See like together, we're bigger. But what have you done?
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: What have you done with that power? You have EU
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: right now and so far you it's just nothing. But
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: you know, the loyal puppy dog following the lead of
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: the United States. You know, what's the point to have
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: all these countries coming together and form a third block
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: when you're you don't want to act like that another pole,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: you know.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean that that's exactly the point in theory,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: it makes sense. So you know, together, if you look
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: at any metric like uh, you know GDP even uh
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: even military power or you know any metric, Europe is
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: not bad. I mean they're not. You often see those
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: graphs saying, uh, we will be like the biggest power
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: in the world. No, that's not true. Uh, they will
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: be third even together behind the US on China on
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: any metric, even GDP. I think, uh, the EU even
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: together is behind China now on the certainly military power,
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: uh you know, universities, science technology on SWAN. But still
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: you know strong like like a you know, really big power.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: But the issue is that they cannot a The EU
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: e is uh or ha has been for a long
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: time captured by Atlanticism. Atlanticism being basically the thinking that
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: uh uh, the right strategy is to be versatized to
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: the US because you know they will protect us and
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: and and therefore we can concentrate on you know, other
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: things than security on some and you know, the U
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: and and the US together can you know, dictate uh
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: submit the rest of the world. I mean very much,
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: this sort of Western supremacy type of thinking, uh, which
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: is demonstratedly first it just doesn't work anymore because even
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: the West together cannot submit uh, you know, the rest
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: of the world anymore, especially China and Russia. We see
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: that that doesn't well. And obviously the major divisions within
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: mm HM within the West, in particular between between the
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: US and Europe and Greenland and Swan so more and more.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: In fact, the primary, one of the primary enemies of
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: Trump is Europe. So so it's it's fracturing in real time.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: Uh So, I think this this Atlanticism is more and
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: more delegitimized in Europe. We're seeing it at least there
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: is this growing consciousness within Europeans that this is completely foolish,
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: and America is extremely unpopular. Trump is extremely unpopular in Europe.
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: I was, I was thinking about it yesterday actually because
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: my kids are in a French school. You know, my
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: nieces and nephews are in France in French schools, and
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: you know, speaking to them, I think we don't realize
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: the extent to which kids outside the US, even in Europe,
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: even in France, grew up to hate America today, like
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: they really hate America. Like when I grew up in France,
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: America was you know, kind of a mother right, like
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: you know, the most powerful country that knew what it
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: was doing, had all those amazing technology companies and so on,
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: like you know, very inspirational presidents. I know a lot
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: of that was propagandas and they were actually wore criminals
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: on swim. But that's I didn't grow up to the
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: anti at least that kind of that sort of came.
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: I remember.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: I remember one I remember in two thousand and one
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: when I worked briefly in Hombourg, Germany, and I remember
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: back then all the Germans they loved to learn Californian English,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: you know, specifically English from California and David Hasselhof from
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Baywatch was big. It was big in Germany back then.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: I remember that, and I remember, you know, every time
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: in a taxi they're always playing like American pod music,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: it's always in English. So I was talking to the
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: taxi driver, so like, how come all the station songs
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: like they're playing English? And the taxi drivers are like,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: we're basically American colony, you know, they have the tubes here,
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: they dominated in culture. You know. I was like, wow,
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: I didn't even realize that sentiment exists, but apparently it's real.
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, Just to give you an example, on September eleventh,
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: two thousand and one, so I was in high school
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: in France, and each single high school in France had
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: to observe a minute of Sidons too, you know, in
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: respect for the Americans, which you know, even at the
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: time I thought was kind of crazy because you know,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: there's so many, so many dramas in the world, so
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: many people, you know, dying all the time. Why do
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: we need to pay this sort of special respect to
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: the Americans. But so, you know, that was the environment
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: I grew opin. But right now the kids in Europe
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: are growing up in completely different environments. Uh, they're being
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: radicalized against against America. So I I I don't think
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: people realize the extent to which there is a real ructure, right,
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: We're not seeing it because there is still the generation
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: of people raised on Atlanticism and with that sort of
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: ideology in power. But although the long run, you know,
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: I'm very very positive that that's not going to stand.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: But the question then becomes what next, right, because there
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: is still this this issue that Europe is actually very divided.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: There is no unity. You know, you have fronts saying
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: one thing, you have Germany saying another thing, and then
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: you have Spain saying a thirty Uh. They cannot come
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: up with with coherent talking points, coherent positions, giant strategies.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: They shoot each other in the foot. Like you know,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: the French have this big armament industry, actually major major
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: weapons manufacturers, and they've always been saying, hey, guys, by
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: all stuff like we we Europeans, why do you insist
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: on buying American weaponry when uh, you know clearly that's
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: that's a strategic threat for for Europe. But no, uh,
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: you know, all the other Europeans, I mean many of
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: them insist on buying American weaponry. Uh. So, yeah, there
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: is a lot of in coherence. Basically, Europeans do not
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: see themselves as Europeans. They see themselves as a French,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: German and so on on, and see themselves in competition
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: with with the others like we've always been throughout history,
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: rather than having a strong European sovereignty type of feeling.
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: You really wonder if if that's even possible. Like you know,
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: several actors tried in in history, uh Napoleon being a
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: famous one on and it never well, so it's hard,
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: it's hard. I think that's probably Uh. Do Good proposed
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: an approach which was Europe of nations, so not try
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: to have too much sovereignty sopra nationalism like the europe
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: is trying to do, but it take cetnty away from states,
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: but recognize that, you know, European nations are sovereign from
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: that basis, Uh, put in place institutions that coordinates directions
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: together better as sovereign states rather than trying to take
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: away state sovereignties. I think that's probably a small to approach.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, allustration right now anyway is incoherence. So no
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: one understands Europe because they'll talk over each other.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: This actually leads to an interesting talk by mccrown recently.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: He said, all the mid Powers we got a you know,
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: a bunch together, We got auto together. That's the only
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: way we can stop bullying from the United States and China.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: I'm like, what what did China do to France? What
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: do you mean? What do you mean? Why? Why? Why
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: are you trying to stand up to China? What? What?
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: What's China doing to you? I mean the United States?
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: That's obvious, But I don't know he has to drag
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: China into it? Is it just because.
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: I mean that? That is my is the guy is
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: incompetent in foreign policy because when you have an issue,
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: and the biggest issue right now for Europe is obviously
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: the Iran War and bullying by the US, which you
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: know with s tariffs and with respect to energy as well,
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: because Trump has made energy threats to Europe because with
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: all these drama, even before the Iran War, Europe has
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: now become incredibly dependent on the US for its energy,
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: on US energy and swan on. Trump obviously using this
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: as leverage to submit the Europeans like we basically feel
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: that putting would use energy as beverage to Europe, and
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: so we Europe decided to, uh you know, move away
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: from version energy for American energy. And then it's exactly
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: what what Trump is doing. Uh so, yeah, Trump is
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: the most pressing The US is the most pressing concern.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: And when you have several great powers. You know, I
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: was making this, uh this comparison on Twitter that it's
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: it's like you're in a bar. There are two big
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: guys in the in the bar. You know, one of
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: the big guys punches you in the face. On the
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: first thing you do is you go to the other
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: big guy and you're spitting his drink. That that's what
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: That's what Macy is doing. Right. They get punched in
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: the face by by Trump and they're like, okay, we
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: need to to to put together a coalition against China.
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: Uh yeah, that's does Macron's complete incompetence in in in
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: in foreign policy on this whole notion of middle power
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: coalition and alliance is very hard to to see happen.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, Europe is an example. It is it is
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: a coalition of middle powers. You can see that. You know,
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: this just doesn't work. They can't agree on any common position.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: And anything. So why would my con think that if
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: you scare it to all the middle powers in the world,
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: that can be any agreement, any coherence on anything. Uh,
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: It's it's hard to believe.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Do you think do you think US will quit NATO
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: like Trump repeatedly threatened to.
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: Do NATO or abody doesn't exist anymore? In fact, right,
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: I think it's uh, you know, if you look at it's,
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: it's uh, it's it's its main purposes. Uh, it's kind
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: of you can't you come for its CEOs where it
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: would be useful him Like, imagine someone attacks Europe? Is
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: there any uh? Like, do you really believe that the
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: US would under Trump would brush to defend Europe? Like
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: I think most people, you know, even even Trump himself.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: NATO is a paper tiger. So when you start saying that, uh,
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: when you start saying that, it is basically saying, okay,
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: then it's if it's a paper tiger, it's not an
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: illions that that's that's going to work. The whole point
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: of of an alliance like that is actually the point.
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: It is not to use it. The point is the
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: terence of such an alliance in order to uh, to
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: convince others not to attack you. But the moments the leader,
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: the defacto leader of the alliance says, actually it's a
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: paper tiger. Then you lose the terrence and and then
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: therefore you there, it just doesn't exist anymore. So, yeah, it's.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: Well, United States, the biggest, biggest milipory power within NATO,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: is looking like a paper tiger in the Persian Gulf
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: right now? Uh do you do you do you see
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: any role for the for the Europeans to play in
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: the resolution of the current crisis.
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: That's that's a good question. I think if they wanted
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: to play something constructive, they could actually play the role
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: that the US played during the Swiss crisis. Uh, you know,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: if you think about it, because what happened, you know
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: we were speaking about it earlier, is you had so Britain,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: France on Israel trying to you know, dictate their route,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: to show that there was still a great power with
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: respect to Swiss, and then you had the US and
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: the Soviet Union, you know, stand up and say no, actually,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: the age of European imperialism is over. You know, if
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: if you, if, if if insist them doing that, then
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: you're going to face consequences for both of us on
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: day back then, which should that in fact, the age
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: of of European in parism was over, and you could
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: have the EU actually have a joint position, uh maybe
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: together with some bricks countries and say exactly that like
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: the age of UNI letter American imperialism, aggression, we don't
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: want to see that anymore because you know, this is
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: immensely damageable to the whole world, like you're wrecking the
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: whole global economy. We don't want that anymore. And you
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: know you will face consequences from US and you know,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: brieg country if you keep going, and you know that
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: that's a very powerful force. The Europeans have releveraged there
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: because you know, they could destroy the American economy if
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: they really were serious about it jointly, if they do
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: that jointly with I don't know China or or the
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: other bricks countries, and Trump would have no other choice
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: than to back down, and then you unleash a new,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: a new world order, which by the way, would be
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: based on you know, rules that are in the common
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: majorities interest because it's not in the in the world's
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: majority interests who have might make makes right so if
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: you say, you know, you stop might, makes right, you
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: stop walls of fagration. We actually need to respect those
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: d U N Charter and sun. I think that that
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: would be a very sensible European position. But again, but perhaps,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: but unfortunately, because there is no no European coherance and
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: no European courage either.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: You know, this reminds me of a saying like EU
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: is like India. You know, there's a saying that India
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: has great potential and India will always have great potential,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: and this is I think this applies to Europe. You know,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: Europe has great potential, and you always have great potential.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: You know, unless you have a effective leadership that can
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: stand strong and real stand for European interests, you know,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: all these potential just gonna be wasted. It's like you're
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: not doing anything with all these potential power you're you're having,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: and you always be a kind of either a follower
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: or or like a spectator, you know, on the side
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: of this dramatic historical change we're facing right now, Go ahead.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: Start, Uh yeah, if you look at European history, uh,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: it's it's actually the exception is being a follower. If
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: you look history quickly. Uh, main Europe ideologically, because we
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: tend to you know, go quite far right. So we
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: had like the Dark Ages where uh you know, we
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: went we did the Crusades and so on, like we
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: tend to when we believe in something, we tend to
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: be extremely committed to the belief and really go to
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: the end. So if we believe in something that's constructive
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: for the world, good, But if we believe in something
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: that is destructive, like you know, Nazism or you know,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: stuff like that, we can really bring you know, an
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: unleash real disaster on the old world. So it's uh,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: it's it's actually very I wrote an article about that
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: kind of it. One of the gray Rhinos, you know,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: gray rhyows is uh is the country of white swam.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: Gray right now is a prime that everyone is aware of,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: but no one pays much attention to Europe's uh you
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: know kind of uh looking for a new ideology because
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: Atlanticism is dead, so it needs a new ideology. I
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: think is a gray right now because its depending on
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: the energy on the ideology it chooses, and knowing Europe's history,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: where you know, if he chooses the bad ideology, then
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: the whole world is in uh is in for a
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: lot of pain.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: This this could be a problem. So we should we
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: should pray that Europe finds a constructive ideology.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: Well, all that happy, know, let's wrap it up our talks.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: If people want to follow you, Arnold, where would they go?
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: Just Twitter on substack on my name.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it, folks, Arnold Patron make sure
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: to follow him on both Twitter and substack, where he
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: writes very long, articulate articles on his takes on geo politics,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: on Europe's future, as well as relationship with China and
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: the United States. It's always fascinating and enlightening reads. So
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: I highly recommend everyone to give Arnold a follow, And
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: thanks everyone for listening, and I hope to have you
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: back on the show, Arnold, because your insight is always appreciated.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: And thanks for everyone for listening, and thanks everyone for watching.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: Until next time, Bye bye, Okay,