Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Soybeans Fall Even When China Buys

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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Soybeans Fall Even When China Buys · AG Bull

• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Tommy Grossothe, AgBull Media, Ag Bull Trading.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: I'm in Nashville, Tennessee today.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: We're getting ready to record uh Wiesemeyer's perspectives.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: Now, a little housekeeping before we get started.
• 0:22
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• 0:46
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• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: We're going through all the housekeeping and advertisements and everything quickly here in the beginning because we're going to have a quick show.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Markets are not open.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: Full disclosure.
• 1:00
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• 1:04
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• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: The quickest show we've ever had.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: And I want you to do me a favor.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: I don't ask you for a lot of favors, but I'm asking you for this one.
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  SPEAKER_00: This show's going to be free to the public for a few more weeks.
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• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, you're going to see Jim popping up on Davis.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, he'll still be out there on AgriTalk on Fridays.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Jim's not going away.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: We're just putting him a little bit behind the paywall.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: With that, let's bring in my friend.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: I got a feeling.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: I just have a feeling he may have a little cold.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: That is not a synthesizer making Jim's voice sound funny.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: He was flying the friendly skies, and apparently they weren't so friendly.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: He's back.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: What happened to your voice?
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: I want to hear well.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't get into Des Moines until 1:30 in the morning.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: And that's what probably gave me my cold.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: But bottom line, that flight was the best one because I was not only in first class, the guy sitting next to me was like a version of Larry David.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: And we had that whole first class area laughing.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: It was it was actually fun.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's funny.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you were sending me some texts and stuff.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: And I didn't know if you were walking in your sleep or what.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: No, I tell you what, O'Hare Airport's a hot mess, but if it's not a hot mess, you and I were organized.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: What do you say?
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get this done to handle it.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Speed round.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Papa Bears messing around.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: Number one, the markets.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you see there, there's mostly red.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: There's the only green on there is live cattle.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: December, which was up about three-quarters of a percent, a buck 30.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: But look at corn, soybean, soybean meal.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: You you call it, it was down.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: Meal, eight, eight dollars and fifty cents down 2.3 percent.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: Spring wheat was the leader down, down 18, 18 and three-quarter cents, down 2.7 percent.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: So let's go through the other chart, Tommy, that we have there.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: 10 of 11 contracts that we monitor were lower on the week.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: Like I said, spring wheat was led the downturn down 2.7 percent, soybeans were 2.4 percent, despite big China purchases.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get into that later.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: But look at the only winner down below uh live cattle.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you've got to be enjoying these lower grain prices and everything else.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: Well, there it gives them opportunity to cover their feed needs.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely, they better, absolutely, and then we added another market chart because the it's it shows last week last week's gainers turned lower.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: Now, uh, if you look uh in most cases, look at uh you know, corn did a double dip, but soybeans were up one week, you know, you know, two weeks ago, but down last week, and that was a can a considered item, you know, during the week.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: Look at cotton, was up 2.1 percent two weeks ago and was down 0.7 percent.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry, it was the opposite.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's see, nope, nope, that's right, it was down 0.7 percent.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: But again, lean hogs are just look ugly, Tommy.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: The hogs, the hog market, it it looks so ugly, we'll probably have a higher week this week.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Well, one could hope.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: I know uh I I just personally uh went to the market here in in Nashville, and I bought a bunch of uh locally uh raised products from some farmers.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna try those out.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: And let's get into the show here.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because we're we're we've the last few weeks, we've introduced another new item that's gonna be weekly Sunday, kind of a look ahead to markets, you know, Sunday evening, and it's already out on agbol.com.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: And and in it, we say great futures enter the week Sunday with a defensive technical outlook, uh, even despite China's soybean purchases, stronger energy prices, and a weaker dollar.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: Now, uh that usually encourages buying when trading resumes.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna see, you know, later this evening.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: Corn and wheat, however, remain vulnerable following Friday's ugly declines with soybean futures showing some resilience despite hefty harvest pressure.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_01: And we're gonna get into those numbers, Tommy.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, absolutely.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry to get you off track.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: Sure, we talk about all the things we're gonna talk about, but you just did that.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a little off myself today.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: You pretty much talked about everything we're gonna talk about.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: You ready?
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we're we're in number two, crop progress.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: I guess I'm the one messing up this show.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: We gotta go, go, go.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Record show number two, U.S.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: crop progress, folks.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but the market expects a big pickup in soybean harvesting, up to 80 percent.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: If you saw as of October 11th last week, soybeans were 46 percent versus normal 50.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: And high Iowa it remains notably behind.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_01: So they're gonna be riveted on how much progress has been made or not made in Iowa.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_01: And when we get into that, uh so some commentators noted of how how uh low the NOPA crush figures were this past week.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: But how can you crush if you don't have the beans, Tommy?
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that probably destroyed the numbers a little bit, especially, especially in Wisconsin and and Iowa, and they're gonna start getting them.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: So I think you're gonna see some pretty hefty NOPA crush uh you know figures in the weeks uh ahead.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: Corn harvest last week was only 33 percent complete versus 39 average.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: Now we've we've had relatively open weather.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: You look at that weather map and you've got to look around for the rain, but some renewed rain opportunities later later on could interrupt harvest in portions of the corn belt.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: That's kind of the bottom line of crop progress.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I can tell you from my end, Jim.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: It's been quiet here at the office.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: I spent all last week at NASVIC, sent out texts and emails.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone's real responsive if I call them, but they're busy harvesting, they're getting a little worn down, a little tired.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, maybe a rain delay would uh do everyone a little good.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: Number three, China accelerates soybean buys.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: What's going on here?
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Reuters was the first to report state-owned buyers booked at least 20 cargoes.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: I was told 30 by our China watchers.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: About 20 cargoes is about 1.3 million metric tons.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: And that was just during the week, Tommy.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: The buying supports U.S.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_01: export demand during harvest, but that harvest onslaught is just over overseeding it.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the soybeans are excluded from China's ag tariff reduction list.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_01: That's the coming cut in in tariffs of 10%.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_01: That will get it hopefully by the end of the year.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: But I think you indicated that a number of people in the ag trade are saying China got covered themselves by going along the futures.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we can't quite see it, but I was on with Michelle Rook Friday, and she said, How can soybeans go down when they purchased?
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: Not thinking as a trader as we do.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sitting next to some of the very active traders here in Nasvik, and they're like, you know, China bought a lot of soybean futures.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, there's no pits, we're not yelling and screaming or anything like we used to, but we can see the open interest, and there are some big, big longs in the soybean futures.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: To note, looks like funds, Jim took off another 80,000 a length in corn, only holding it about 200,000, which will actually help the farmer out here, assuming they don't get out of all of them and go to a short stance.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: Keep an eye on that USDA low from the prior Friday around that 470 level.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: We closed only four cents from there in corn.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: Markets are not open upon recording this.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: We don't have crude oil open.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you were traveling like a madman, but crude oil, front month, what's going to expire here real quick, was up$3.50 when I went home at 4 o'clock on Friday.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, the next month was up$250, starting to touch that 100 level.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of stress.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to affect the election.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about that here in a little bit.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: Let's move on with number four.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: China U.S.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: beef restrictions remain.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, uh, we had several emails or calls coming in, at least I had, saying, hey, what's happening with U.S.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: beef to China?
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_01: Well, even though they announced months ago renewed plant registrations, they haven't cleared every barrier.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: Some plants uh remain suspended over rectopamine and other drugs.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_01: And uh U.S.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: meat industry tells me it could be until the end of the year before we have this worked out.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_01: Now, Xi Jinping will meet with uh President Trump at least once, if not twice, between now and the end of the year.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_01: November, they have a meeting coming up.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_01: So when you when they meet, that usually accelerates some of the focus, Tommy.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_01: So I think we'll eventually get good news on the beef uh side, but just not now.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: Excellent.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: Number five.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_01: Number two traders turned to South America prospects.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_01: Conab's initial forecast for soybeans was higher than USDA.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_01: I think they estimated total grain production at 367 million tons.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_01: That's a hefty amount.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: But their planning progress is, I would say, about average.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the Brazilian weather is mixed, however.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_01: So that's why on Agbull.com we're we're we have focused and will continue to focus on Brazilian weather.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: Argentina corn and soybeans are probably better from a planting position than Brazil.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_01: But the but the bottom line, you gotta watch that because this so-called Super El Nino could eventually negatively impact the South American uh sector, but that remains to be seen, not yet.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: Number six, shifting election prospects.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: Now, this is going to be a touchy subject here, it's always touchy because when you one party or the another, but I just quote the so-called election experts who are not right all the time.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: But unless the polls are almost all wrong, and you can't uh you can't even disregard that.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_01: Cook political report moved 18 additional races toward the Democrats.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: Now, they point to net democratic gain in the House of nine to 19 seats.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: They only need a net gain of three, Tommy.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: So they're clearly seeing the Democrats are gonna regain control of the House.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: Now, when it comes to Senate, I don't care whether it's Cook Political Report, inside elections, which I like as well, uh Larry's uh Zabato, they're all holding up their hand and saying jump ball.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: It's that close.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: When you look at Minnesota, when you look at uh Ohio, when you look at Iowa, when you look at Texas, Kansas, Alaska, those are the states that we really don't know.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: It's a jump ball right now.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: So what I just said, but it's gonna be the turnout as it always is, but especially so on the Republican side, because with this onslaught of negative news coming from the major media about how bad it looks for Republicans, will that translate into a number of Republicans not coming to vote?
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_01: Or in some cases, in certain races, such as Texas, voting, but maybe not for you know selected individuals like Ken Paxton.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: That's what I hear from uh Texans.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_01: But that's still a very, very close race.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: But the Republicans are throwing money at it, almost almost$200 million in the Texas race alone.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: So, and and I agree with that prognostication.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: It's just too close to call on the Senate side.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: And Trump, I'll I'll tell you, he's been a trooper.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: He's out there fighting.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_01: He's going to I I don't know how many states, I don't see how he does it, but he's campaigning to keep control of both chambers.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: You know, now, Jim, I had some people get a hold of me.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: You were gone for a few days last week, not putting out as much content.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: There were rumors swirling around in the AGBO community that you may be up for a new job in the White House as press secretary.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: Is that true?
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_01: No, absolutely.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely not.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_01: It would take me a nanosecond to say no.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_01: That that is a rough job, as we have seen.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_01: And what did she last?
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, five days?
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: Half a scarmucci is what we call it.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: Uh yeah, is a new record, a half a scarmoucci.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_01: He was seven, right?
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: He was seven, I think.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: No, he was I feel for her because she was not ready for prime time, Tommy.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I I just think they rushed her.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: And he really wanted Barteroma, by the way.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: Maria, yeah.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: Maria.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: And she she passed up because Fox still owes her millions of dollars, so she's not silly.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: But I think uh Trump has already said he's gonna take his time this time.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: So rather than focus totally on loyalty, he he's gonna focus on um the job itself, and that's what they need.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: They need an effective uh you know spokesman, especially with the way he moves.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, of course, Trump will always say he's his best spokesman, but you still have to deal with reporters, and Trump doesn't like to deal with that, and so that's why you need a press secretary.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_01: I think the second time will hopefully be better.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: Not that she wasn't a good person, she is.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: I feel for her, but she was just not ready for that particular job.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: That's the bottom line.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: Are you ready for number seven, big pop?
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: Seven, but EPA, they did it in the federal register.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: Did they do?
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_01: And well, some of the headlines I think were were odd because they said, Oh, EPA is going to deliver 100% of the reallocation in rents.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we knew that.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: They had promised that.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: That would have been a shock had it not been 100% reallocation.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: What we don't know, and still don't know, with their proposed rule, is how they're going to reallocate the 770 million additional RINs.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: Those are those credits.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: In their proposal, they want the public to comment by December the 4th on two different uh possibilities.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: Half of those additional rins in 2026 and half in 2027.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's probably the way they're gonna go.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: Or their second option is to move all of that into 2027.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think the soybean industry will like that one.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: So I think they're they're gonna earn, and we're gonna have a hearing November the fourth.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll have to cover that to see what the stakeholders, both sides, are saying in that issue.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: Bottom line, I think EPA is following through, even though some in the market don't believe that they will in the end result.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: I can't believe it, but they don't.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: And so we're gonna have to go through the actual final announcement of that rule, Tommy.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the hits keep playing, my friend.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: Number eight, inflation remains sticky, could be the understatement of the year.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: Do tell my friend.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: September consumer inflation accelerated to 3.7 percent annually.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: Remember, the Fed likes 2% from 3.4, so the trend is not our friend there.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: Core inflation rose to 2.6 percent.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: That's more in line with the Fed's 2% from 2.4, so it still went up.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: Price pressure, it's it's obviously what's happening.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: But but even it was beyond energy, and I think that's why in the next few months you're gonna see uh inflation still relatively uh firm.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: And so that brings up the question.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: October 27th and 28th is the next FOMC Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and they always announce their decision on the second day, so October 28th.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: The the Fed fund futures, although variable, they still believe that it will be a no uh increase, it'll be flat.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_01: But all bets are off for November the 4th.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: That's their next meeting after this one.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: So you have to see the data.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: The ag sector impacts, they want lower interest rates, not steady or or higher, but I think we're gonna have to wait a while to see.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: But but but all this 80% of this is the war in Iran, Tommy.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: So if if some of my best sources are correct, that after the midterms and by early next year, we could have an end, an effective end to that US and Iran war through different avenues, that will be good from the flow of products going through the Strait of Armoose, the the Red Sea area.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: And if that's the case, you can you can start talking about actually lowering uh some input cost for the year and years ahead.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: That that's the optimistic viewpoint, but I think it could happen and probably will happen.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be interesting.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: This next one, we got a bunch of things to uh talk about here.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: You you've got a big list here.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna blow it up full screen.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: Number nine, IRS suspension of enforcement on died diesful.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's not a waiver, it's not a waiver, it's just a suspension.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_01: So IRS uh relief covers October the 1st to December 31.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_01: A number of farmers have emailed me and with their concern that this is actually gonna put upward pressure, not downward pressure, on their diesel supplies because they're making uh red-dyed diesel available to on farm use, and they're probably correct there.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think this is gonna help that much.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: What is helping is the uncorking of 100 million barrels of crude and diesel out of Europe, Tommy.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_01: And that helped for a while, but this uh diesel price is still up there.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: What is it?
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: The it remains near six dollars and thirty-three cents a gallon.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: I was out in California and it was ten dollars a gallon.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: Or they say on their pumps 999 to infinity.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, and that's above 74 above year ago, and the White House is focused on this because they can see it in their internal numbers on the congressional races.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: Now, what Trump did Friday, he did something that our Western allies don't like, Ukraine's president doesn't like, he drew back the the that would have taken effect today, the increased tariffs on Russia.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_01: And I uh yeah I personally think that was a foreign policy mistake, because that's not gonna that's gonna help Putin.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: And Trump is thinking that we're gonna get a lot of uh diesel from Russia.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I I did just the experts are telling me not much.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna see.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: But his diesel deal with Putin has drawn criticism, not just from Democrats, but from Republicans and high-level Republicans, and they're gonna want answers.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: The other concept on this is tax forgiveness is being talked about, but it's not finalized.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: And uh the forgiveness of taxes remains something that the Treasury Department via Trump is exploring via legislation.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: So that takes Congress.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: And the final element on this story, Tommy, is at the state level.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's just as important what's happening at the farmer state level.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_01: Iowa uh has has announced some changes, Indiana, etc.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: So farmers know this, but this is a twofold federal and state, all in an effort to lower those diesel prices at the gut slot of harvest for agriculture, for the corn bill, at least.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_01: It won't help the South now, too late.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: And I just don't think it's gonna help much.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_00: All right, number 10, my friend.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_00: Data gaps.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_01: That's our last one, believe it or not.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm gonna take the gloves off.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: We need transparency, and I've been a defender for decades of USDA's NAS.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: But they need to come publicly with why they did what they did in Nebraska corn estimates, not just in October, in September, because I think some of the changes in September forced a rather large increase in Nebraska's uh corn yield, I think up 11.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_01: 45% of the U.S.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: national corn yield increase in October came as a result of Nebraska.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: And when you look at those surrounding states, they went lower.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't care what NASA says publicly right now, they're not saying much.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_01: We need an explanation because this feeds in to the negativity that too many farmers have about USDA.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: And I know they're passing the bucket, NASA's packing passing the buck to NASDAQ, which is the national ag state uh, you know, departments of agriculture, and NASDAQ is throwing it right back to uh uh NAS.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins had a meeting with some higher-ups on this, I think it was Wednesday afternoon.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: I want to know what they talked about.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_01: They uh need to explain that situation.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's that one because I'll have maybe I'll have a story tomorrow, uh, including more information from the trade as far as why those numbers in Nebraska were so odd.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: We just need an explanation.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we need information and USTR, U.S.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: trade representative.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_01: We've talked about this before.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_01: Come clean with what you know, U.S.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_01: trade rep Jamison Greer on$17 billion China purchases because he has said they've already purchased$5 billion toward that pro-rated amount for 2026, but we don't know what the pro-rated level is.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: We don't know what the$5 billion contained, what the shipment dates, etc.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_01: So I really how can you analyze that market sensitive impact unless you know the commodities involved?
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_01: Because a lot of this could be wood and wood products.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_01: Well, not really egg, egg as we understand it, products.
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_01: So they're keeping a weekly total at the U.S.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_01: trade rep's office on this.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_01: Why don't they release that information?
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_01: Why?
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and and I think the press should be pressing them, if you will, on that one.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: I am, and you know what USCR told me?
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_01: They sent me to the white, the white paper at the White House, and I wanted I laughed at them.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: I go, I've read it if you haven't, by the way.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_01: And it says nothing on the details.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm not gonna stop there, and I hope the other ag reporters don't as well.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_01: We need information on this China, they're fulfilling the soybean commitment.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: Remember the initial naysayers?
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_01: Oh my goodness, they're not gonna buy 25 million metric tons.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: Our sources say, some people say they're about 60 percent toward that 25 million metric ton goal.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: Our sources say they're closer to two-thirds.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: And if if they are, if they have been in the futures market, that still means that the cash market, uh, you have to get the beans in order to ship.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_01: So that's why uh the Monday export inspections are going to be riveted on because we're now we're gonna see translation of shipments.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, you got to get the beans in order to send to them.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: And USDA's numbers, uh, soybean export number is probably gonna have to go higher in the months ahead.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_01: And that's the case.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_01: The 315 million bushel carryover could go to 300 million or lower if you recall.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_01: Pipeline supplies is about 285.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're if your bullish soybeans, it it can you you can make a case with just just China, uh with the China purchases once they uh uh once they start shipping the beans.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_01: That that's that that's it on on the need for information, Tommy.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_00: All right, everyone.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_00: You're listening to Weesmeyer's Perspectives, Tommy Grassaffee, Jim.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_00: Quick show before we get out of here.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: I encourage folks to go to AgBull Intel or go to AgBull.com.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's where you can sign up for AgBull Intel Premium, and of course, you can get a hold of Jim's new subscription service is gonna come out in a few weeks.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_00: This video will remain free for a few more weeks, and then all of a sudden, you're gonna say, Where the hell did it go?
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_00: It went behind the paywall.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_01: But uh and a number of you who have emailed me, I finally caught up because believe it or not, when I came back, I had 17,000, and I'm not lying, emails to go through, but I went through them, and so all of you that who emailed me personally, I finally got you entered on the list.
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_01: So don't worry, you'll be getting you should be uh uh receiving stuff today.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, very good.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_00: And then uh you make sure you send that list so we can keep uh both lists uh up and going.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_00: Take us home, Jim.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_00: Take us home.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_01: As I keep saying, we're we're we're going through the significant harvest for soybeans.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_01: Watch Iowa's numbers because once they start past the 50-60 percent mark, that's when your focus turns to big D demand, and that's when the market starts focusing on South American weather.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_01: And we've already talked about both of those things, and your seasonal studies show that this is the time between now and the end of the year where you're seasonally have higher corn and soybean prices, both cash and futures.
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna see.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_01: So that's the upside news there.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_00: All right, that's a wrap.
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_00: Sports fans.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: A new all-time world record, 28 minutes with Tommy and Jim.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what the heck it can be done.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_01: It can be done.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: Real quick before we go, where are your travels taking you this week?
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, Nara Renders Association in Tucson, Arizona.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_01: I speak Tuesday, going to go there tomorrow.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: And it's hard to get back from Tucson when you speak in the afternoon.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna be back late Wednesday.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_01: So that's my travel this week, and that's a good group.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: I really like them because they're in the know.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: I like that group.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, excellent, Jim.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_00: See you next week, my friend.
• 28:20
  unknown: Sure.