Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Why Would Anyone Keep Doing This? | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/3/26

Transcript

Thursday BEST BETS | Why Would Anyone Keep Doing This? | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/3/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: You look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head. Now you
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: stare at the chips like they made you this mad.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Down, baby. Look at me now.
• 0:50
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: hold on Let me pull you out That fell apart
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: by its heart But it don't get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you with Toadstool
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Sports Thursday, September 3rd. Why do we keep doing this, man?
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, it should have been a 3-0 day yesterday.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: This just... there's nothing to even say about this. Like
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: we started out, we got the overwrite with Mariners, Red Sox,
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Sandoval sucks ass. I mean, Mariners basically had one big
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: inning early in the game and it was looking a
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: little bit questionable, but the bullpens helped us out. Bullpens
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: were bad in the game. Miller was better than I thought,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: but even so, the Red Sox pitching was a disaster
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: in the game. I think, I don't even know what
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: the final was, 8-3 maybe, whatever it was. It might've been, Yeah,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: I think it was 8-3 Seattle. Easy. All right. We
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: get into the night slate. Yeah. Yankees-Anaheim. Oh, yeah, it's
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: a 1-0 Yankees lead in the seventh inning. Yeah, we're
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: going to get this under easily. No question about it.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: By the way, the first five under would have been
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: a winner because only one run was scored in the
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: first five innings. So that was an easy winner if
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: you did the first five, and I stayed away from
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: it because I don't like that number three. We still
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: should have had this. And then, oh, yeah, Von Grissom
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: hits a home run. For the Angels, okay, it's 1-1.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: We're going into extras. The Ghostrunner is going to be
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: a thing. They have to get rid of the Ghostrunner, dude.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: They have to get rid of it. Extra innings are
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: where unders go to die. I hate this thing. It
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: is so stupid. But even with the Ghostrunner, this is
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: a 1-1 game. Offenses have done nothing all game. Two
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: runs in the entirety of the first nine innings. Two
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: runs in nine innings. Oh, yeah. How many runs get
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: scored in one single inning and extra innings in the 10th? Oh, yeah.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: How about seven runs in one fucking inning? Are you
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: fucking kidding me? Are you fucking kidding me? And the
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: way that it happened was probably the worst possible way
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: it could have happened. The Yankees all with two outs.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: They score a couple of runs. Now it's three to one.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, fine. Just get the last out. Three
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: to one. Just end the game, 3-1, 3-2, whatever. We'll
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: still hit the under. No, then they score another run.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: Now it's 4-1. Okay, just get the last out. Come on.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: And then, okay, it'll be 4-1. I think we can
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: deal with that. Oh, no. Then the Yankees decide, yeah,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: we're going to score two more runs. They score five
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: in the top of the 10th, and now the bet
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: is sitting on a push, which is bad enough because
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: there's no way it shouldn't have been a winner. A
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: push is bad enough, and it's 6-1 now. Bottom of
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: the 10th now. Okay. Yankees bullpen. Let's go. There's going
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: to be a ghost runner, but let's just silence Anaheim here. Anaheim,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: they can't hit. Whatever.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: What happens? Yeah. Von Grissom, I think, got out. And
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: then the next guy, whoever the hell it was, Holmrod.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: Totally useless. And now we lose the bet. And it
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: winds up 6-3. No possible way that should have been
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: a loser. It's one of the worst beats that you'll
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: ever see. It is such fucking bullshit. I am livid.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: And then to, of course, cap off the night, the
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Dodgers wind up blowing their game too. They're winning 3-0
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: in the first inning. The starter for St. Louis was
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: a guy they actually called up from the minors. He
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: had two previous Major League outings. And his ERA in
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: the majors was 9-0. And his numbers in the minors
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: are not particularly good. He walks everybody. So I'm like, okay,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with that. We, like, blindly took the Dodgers. But, okay, yeah,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: that guy, he came in, he sucked. The Dodgers scored
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: three in the first inning off him. Then St. Louis
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: took him out. Then what happened? Oh, yeah, the Dodgers
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: couldn't score against St. Louis. St. Louis had the bullpen
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: in for eight innings. Eight innings. And not even including,
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: the game went into extras. Not even including the extras.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: So yeah, their bullpen pitched nine innings in the game.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: How about that? That shit bullpen, and it still didn't
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: help enough. 3-0 game becomes 3-2. I'm like, okay, Dodgers
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: just score another run or two here. The Dodgers, after
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: the first inning, they didn't score for like five innings.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: Then they did, and then they were winning 5-2, I
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: think in the seventh inning. So I'm like, okay, looking good,
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: looking good, guys. Let's just shut it down. We're going
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: to get this one. No, then they give up two
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: more runs. Then they give him another run. Now it's tied.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: Once it was tied in the eighth inning or whatever,
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: you're fucked. You're not going to win by two runs. Like,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: it's tied, and it winds up going to the bottom
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: of the ninth. You're going to need a home run,
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: a walk-off home run to actually cover that at that point.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: That's not going to happen. And no, it went into
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: extra innings, and St. Louis winds up winning the game outright.
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: Fuck.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you about this. The
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: under was way worse to take. If that Anaheim Yankees
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: under hit, which it absolutely should have, I would not
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: have been this... I would have been less angry about
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers one. Because, you know, the whole thing, don't
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: take the run line with the home team, whatever. The
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: Dodgers out-hit St. Louis in the game, I'm pretty sure, so...
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: I think they were the right side. I'm fucking pissed, dude.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: And what pisses me off even more is that both
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: would have been a winner in the first five. But
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: why would I want to not face St. Louis' bullpen?
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: St.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: Louis' bullpen sucks, so I was definitely keeping them in
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: the equation. Yankees-Anaheim, I wanted to find a way to
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: keep Anaheim's bullpen out. It is so bad. It is
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: so bad. Never picking the right... option between first five
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: and full game first five would have been a winner
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: on both games I'm pretty sure Dodgers because you would
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: have been a Dodgers if you had a half run
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: with the Dodgers in the first I don't know what
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: the price would have been on that but that would
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: have been a winner whatever we'll talk about baseball here
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: it's a short baseball card today I think there are
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: eight games nine games Some of these series are wrapping up.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: I think a couple of the series might be continuing further. Oh, no,
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: we have some series wrapping up and some new series
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: starting is what this is. Yeah, because it's Thursday. I'm
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: totally out of it after yesterday. I only have one
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: play unless I discover something that I missed when I
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: handicapped all this last night. First game is at 1235 Eastern,
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: San Francisco and Pittsburgh. This is not a good pitching matchup,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: to put it mildly. Pittsburgh wound up losing the game yesterday, 5-4,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: after winning 13-12 in the first game. Yeah, I think
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: we lost the under in that game by a little bit.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is probably still thinking they might be able to
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs, so I guess you could argue that
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh might have more motivation here. They're the better team,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: and they're at home where Pittsburgh does hit better, and
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: they're favored by a decent amount. So Pittsburgh is supposed
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: to win this game, if you want to call it that.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: I didn't bring up any of my... I I'm sorry.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: I don't, I don't have any of the, uh, baseball
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: stuff I usually have because I was looking at college football.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: I'm so out of it this morning, man. I apologize. No,
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: that's not what I want. Search tabs.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: No. Yes.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: This is what I want. All right. Uh, we got
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: all this. I need the bullpen usage up here. Yes. Okay.
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: Fine.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: God, I'm so out of it. All right. Um, Pittsburgh
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday. San Francisco used a bunch.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: They've had heavy usage recently. They used five, so I
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: think Pittsburgh is probably going to have a bullpen advantage here.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Pittsburgh, yeah, number 19 in bullpen. San
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: Francisco is number 24. Pittsburgh, better ERA and somewhat more
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: rest there, but I don't know if I really want
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: to deal with either bullpen here. Pittsburgh is number six offensively.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: San Francisco is 17th, but I still don't think San
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: Francisco's good at all on offense. Blade Tidwell getting the
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: start for San Francisco here. I would say that in
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: this game, you might want to play it action if
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: you're really going to play this game because I don't
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: think it's guaranteed that either of these starters is definitely
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: going to start, but they probably will. Tidwell has been
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: starting recently. He's made five starts now, so I think
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: he will be the starter here. 4.54 ERA, 1.22 whip.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: He's better on the road. ERA-wise, at least, 3.45, but
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: his opponent batting average is worse on the road. He
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: kind of got lit up last time out against Arizona.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: They hit a bunch of home runs off him. Two
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: of his last three starts have been bad. San Francisco
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: has lost his last seven starts in a row, or
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: seven appearances in a row, I should say. So not
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: a great sign. When he comes into the game, they lose.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's all right. His walk rate's all right.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is all right. He's not horrible. I mean,
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: this is mediocre here. 2.4 strikeout walk ratio is not great. 7.4
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, also not great. Against Pittsburgh, they only
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: have three hitters of a face and five at-bats. The
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: one hit is a home run from Brian Reynolds. 200 average,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: 1133 OPS. No strikeouts, one walk. I mean, there's not
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: a big sample size there, but I'm not going to
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: trust Tidwell here. And Pittsburgh's going with a bullpen game.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: They have Lake Bashar listed as a starter again, however
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: you pronounce it. I still don't know how to pronounce
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: his name. That's how I'm going to pronounce it, though.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: It sounds better. He'll go, like, probably somewhere around two
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: innings in this game. He might be an opener, or
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: they might put somebody in front of him. It's basically
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: going to be a pirate bullpen game, it looks like here.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: So I don't have a whole lot else to say
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: about that, but their bullpen is not exactly great. I
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: think I would play the over if I was going
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: to play this game. The total is at 8.5. The
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: money is actually backing the under. 68% of tickets, 87%
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: of the cash in the under. I don't think I'd
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: want to be under in this one. We know that
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh hits well at home. Pittsburgh is also heavily favored.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: They're minus 160. Probably not a great price. You're favoring
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: a Pittsburgh bullpen game by that much. 70% of tickets,
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: 88% of the cash on Pittsburgh, so the money is
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: kind of coming in that way. I don't know, man.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think I kind of prefer Tidwell over
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh bullpen situation here. Maybe a San Francisco first
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: five play would be an option here, but I still
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: think the over would be my preference in that one.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Toronto and Cleveland, I mean, these are two bad offenses here.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: When I first looked at this, I'm like, oh, yeah.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: Jose Soriano, he's not bad. He's good on the road.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Tanner Bybee is pretty good as well. So I was
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: thinking this definitely looks like an under possibility here. And
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: then when I dug into the matchup, I'm like, yeah, no. Nope,
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do that. Cleveland, let's see. If
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: we can actually, this site doesn't even load half the time.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Fucking Roto-Wire or whatever. I was trying to use it
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: last night during the fantasy football draft too. Cleveland won
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: the first game of the series and they got smoked
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: 11 and nothing yesterday. You got to think this is
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: a good bounce back spot for Cleveland here at the
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: very least. I mean, they're still trying to make the
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: playoffs here. They have an above 500 record. And teams,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: after they lose at home like that in just disgusting fashion,
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: especially in a shutout, a lot of times they play
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: better and bounce back in the next game. So the situation,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: I think, definitely favors Cleveland. I guess Toronto technically is
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: not eliminated yet either, but I think Cleveland might have
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: a little bit more to play for here, thinking they
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: have a legitimate shot, which they could still win their
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: division too. As far as the bullpens, Cleveland only used
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: one guy out of the bullpen yesterday. And it's debatable
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: which of these bullpens is better. They're both all right.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is number 15. Toronto is number 18. This is
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: based off a whip. It's very, very close between these
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: two bullpens, I would say. Toronto used three guys out
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen yesterday, as this page continues to load
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: way too slowly. As far as the hitting is concerned...
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is terrible. Toronto's not much better. Cleveland is 28th.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Toronto's 27th. So, yeah, I mean, the hitting is not
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: good here, which is why the series looked like it
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: would be an under series, but yesterday did not go under.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: The first game, I think, landed right near the total.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: Jose Soriano pitching for Toronto. Decent season from him, 3.45 ERA, 1.28 whip.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: What we know about him is he tends to be
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: better on the road, 3.32 road ERA, although his opponent
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: batting average is actually a little bit worse overall. on
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: the road, so his splits aren't really that extreme this year.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good since Toronto got him. He's allowed
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: three or fewer runs in four of his five starts
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: with them, and the only one he didn't was at
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, which is not really an easy place to pitch.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: But there are some questions here. I mean, his walk
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: rate's been a little high. His strikeout rate's gone down.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's not great. In the course of the season,
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: he does have a low hit rate. His walk rate
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: is too high. His strikeout rate is reasonably high. But
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: that does lead to A strikeout walk ratio, because of
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: all the walks, it's not very good at 2.2. 8.9
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: strikeouts per nine. Oh, no, yeah, 8.9 strikeouts per nine.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: That's actually pretty good, right around one per inning. Numbers
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: against Cleveland, though, this is where it starts not looking
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: good for the under. Cleveland is 40 at-bats against them
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: in a 300 average, 966 OPS, 6-6 strikeout walk ratio. So, yeah,
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: it's not looking good for Soriano. So, okay, maybe Cleveland
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: is the right side here, right? I mean, I already
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: said Cleveland. I think the situation is better for Cleveland.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: Tanner Bybee is pitching for them. His record is disgusting,
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: but that's because he gets no run support. He's had
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: a good season, and he got run support last year,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: but not this year. 3.88 ERA this year, 1.16 whip.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: That's pretty good. He's a little bit better at home, 3.8
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: home ERA. So both pitchers are sort of in the
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: better of their home road splits here. although they're not
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: significant splits. Bybee has been the better of the two
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: pitchers recently, even though Cleveland continues to lose all of
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: his games. He's also allowed three or fewer earned runs
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: in all of his starts in the month of August,
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: except for one. But his strikeout walk ratio and his
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: hit rate are a little bit better. Recently, his hit
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: rate is pretty low on the season. He does allow
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: too many home runs, which is kind of the issue
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: with him. He's a fly ball pitcher. His walk rate's fine.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is really low, though, so his strikeout
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: rate has gone down this year. His strikeout walk ratio
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: is 2.8 this year, which is not exactly great. His
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is the lowest he's posted, 7.1, so
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: there is something going on with him where his strikeout
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: stuff is diminished for some reason, although he's not old,
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: and he's having one of his better seasons as far
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: as ERA and WIP, so I don't know. You'd figure, well,
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: going up against Toronto, that should be easy, right? They suck.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Well.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: He has 44 at-bats against him, a. 318 average allowed, an.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: 833 OPS, 8-to-1 strikeout walk ratio. None of those numbers
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: are good except for that ratio. So I think there
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: might be an argument for an over in this game.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: These matchups, it does not look like a good matchup
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: for either pitcher. Money is not agreeing with that. 55%
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 50% of the cash on the over. And
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: I get it. Like I said, on the surface, I
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: looked at it and I said, oh, yeah, this looks
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: like an under. The total's at eight. I don't want
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: to do it. I mean, I don't want to try
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: to figure out this total. Maybe I'm weighing the matchups
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: a little bit too heavily. But you have generally pretty
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: good pitchers here in bad offenses, and decent bullpens, which
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: means it should be an under. But these pitchers both
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: match up very poorly here. So I would slightly lean over.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: I would slightly lean Cleveland. I don't think either pitcher
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: has a definitive edge here, but Cleveland, I just think
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: the motivation might be there, but the money's not agreeing
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: with that either. 64% of tickets, 77% of the cash
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: on Toronto. I don't get it. I mean, unfortunately, I
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: did not put this game on my card yesterday because
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: I was right about Toronto, and Dylan Cease had another
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: good game. And, I mean, Dylan Cease is not on
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: the mound again today. So Cleveland should absolutely have a
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: shot in this one. The price is right around a
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: pick-em on the money line there. Dirty Sock, what's up?
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. All right, the next game is
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: White Sox and Astros here. These teams have split the
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: series as well, so I expect both teams are going
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: to show up. I mean, they're both trying to win
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: their respective divisions. Oh, no, wait, Houston's won two of
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: the three. Never mind, this is a four-game series. Houston
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: won in a shutout yesterday, 2-0. But, yeah, I expect
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: both teams are going to show up here. They're fighting
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: for playoff positioning, etc., And as I've mentioned in the
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: past three days or whatever, these teams match up pretty evenly.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: Houston used two relief pitchers yesterday. The White Sox used
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: two as well. Both bullpens are similarly ranked. Houston 12th,
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: Chicago 14th. White Sox do have the somewhat better bullpen ERA.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: White Sox are 10th offensively tied with Atlanta and Miami.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: Houston is right behind that grouping at 13. So pretty
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: close offensively and out of the bullpen. Pitching, starting pitching, though,
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: I think the starting pitching is pretty lopsided in favor
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: of Houston here. Luis Castillo is getting the start for
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: the White Sox. I don't know what's going on with him, man.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: The White Sox picked him up at the trade deadline.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Seattle traded him, I believe. He's had a good career,
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: but for some reason, this year, even though he's not
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: really that old, he just fell off a cliff this year,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: and I have no idea what's going on with him.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: His numbers are way worse than he's posted throughout his career. 5.31 ERA, 1.44 whip,
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: and I kept thinking he was going to turn it around.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: It has not happened, though, and he's been really bad
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: on the road. 5.72 road ERA, 300 upon a batting
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: average on the road. He's not in good current form
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: since joining the White Sox. He had one really good
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: start at home against Cincinnati, and all the other starts,
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: all four other starts are bad. So this is not good, although...
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: The reason they're bad is because he's getting hit really hard. Like,
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: really high hit rate. A lot of home runs being
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: given up here. But his strikeout walk ratio is actually good.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: So his command number is actually good here. I don't
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: know what's going on with him, man. It's like he's
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: just thrown pitches right over the plate, apparently. He's been
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: way too hittable this year. He hasn't really walked many
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: guys at all. And his strikeout rate is very mediocre.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: But his strikeout per... walk ratio won't be too bad
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: here actually it's below 3 so it is one of
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: the worst that he's posted just because he's not striking
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: anybody out this year his strikeout per 9 has dipped
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: this year for sure where it's below 8 at this
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: point so those numbers are 2.8 and 7.8 I think
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: is what those were respectively Castillo against Houston is actually
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: all right. 213 at-bats, 249 average, 663 OPS allowed, 56-10
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Of course, Houston is very familiar with
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: him because he was on Seattle, so Houston's seen a
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: ton of him, but he's actually had success generally against them.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: But everything else points against him. He's in the bad
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: home road split. He's way worse this year than he
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: was any other year where he posted those numbers against Houston. And, yeah,
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: he's bad on the road. Hunter Brown is pitching for Houston.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: He's the better pitcher right now. 3.33 ERA. Excuse me. 1.3 whip.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: He's not as good at home for some reason. 3.8
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: home ERA. Brown seems to have gotten it together, though, mostly. Like,
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: he's been having walk issues this year. He's always been
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: a bit wild, but coming back from injury, his wildness
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: has been very pronounced. But his last start was really
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: good against the Mets, and he's allowed very few runs
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: over his recent starts. Although he got no run support
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: in many of them, so Houston lost a bunch of
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: those games. But he's in better form than Castillo here,
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: and he's the better pitcher in general. He's got a
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: low hit rate still. He's been really hard to hit,
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: although his walk rate is very high this year. His
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is also high, though. And he gets a
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: lot of ground balls to get out of these jams,
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: although I still don't like that, right? You've got to
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: stop putting guys on base, man. His strikeout walk ratio
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: at two was pretty bad compared to what he's done
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: in the past, but he's working his way back from injury.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: I think he's kind of getting back into form here.
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: His strikeout per nine is a little bit lower than
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: it has been, 9.6, but that's still pretty strong. Numbers
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: against the White Sox are quite good, 55 at-bats, 182
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: average allowed, 523 OPS, 16-5 strikeout walk ratio. I like
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: Houston in this one. I think it's a starting pitching mismatch,
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: but it's like how do you play Houston is really
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: the question. They're at minus 160, so the price is
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: not exactly excellent. 70% of tickets, 86% of the cash
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: on them. You can make a minus one run line
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: and do it that way. Or I guess if you
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: want to focus just on the starting pitching, which maybe
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: is the better option, lay a half run with Houston
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: in the first five. But Castillo does have pretty good
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers here at the very least. So I could
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: see maybe more of an argument for an under than
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: an over in this game as well. The total is
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: at eight and a half, 63% of tickets, 78% of
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. So the market seems to
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: be agreeing with me on both sides. options in that
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: game but i like houston in that one though as
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: far as like what i would actually do if i
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: was going to play this probably houston minus half run
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: in the first five i think is what i would
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: do um red sox at baltimore on fox this could
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: be a situational angle uh to play the red sox
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: here baltimore is returning home from a long road trip
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: where they were in st louis then they had to
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: go all the way out to sacramento And they had
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: an easy road trip, kind of, and they still didn't
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: even do that well on the road trip. They swept
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: the A's. The A's suck. And then Baltimore just lost
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: the series to Colorado. Now they're returning all the way
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: home from the Mountain Time Zone. Back home after being
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: away from over a week, returning home. You know I
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: always talk about this. It can be a distracted spot.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: You got to get back to home life, whatever. Now Baltimore,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: they're technically not eliminated. And they're probably not going to
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: overlook one of their divisional opponents who's ahead of them,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: which is the Red Sox. But even so, it's a
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: bad spot. Like the return home spot always tends to
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: be a negative spot. So I don't think it's a
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: good spot for Baltimore. I think the spot is better
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: for the Red Sox. And the Red Sox have a
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: better road record than home record, by the way. Red
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: Sox coming off a bad series against Seattle. But the
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have problems right now. I mean, they have
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of injuries going on. Their bullpen is failing recently. However...
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox at least have a decent starting pitcher
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: on the mound in this one, which was not the
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: case the last two games for them. These two games
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: they lost against the Mariners. Their starters were Paez, who's
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: the guy they called up from the minors, who had
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: a four ERA in his minor league stints. And then
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: they had Sandoval yesterday. So, like, what do you think?
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: I thought they would lose both games. And they were
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: going up against legit Mariner pitchers there. Well, the Red
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: Sox have a legit pitcher on the mound here, and
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: they might be pissed coming off those losses, starting a
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: road trip. I think the situation definitely favors the Red
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: Sox here, and the starting pitching should also favor them
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: here with Jake Bennett on the mound. He's been pretty good, 3.27 ERA, 1.04 whip.
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: He's actually a little bit better on the road ERA-wise, 3.02.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: Opponent batting average is about the same. He's coming off
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: a really good outing against the Yankees, six-inning shutout against them,
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: but he only threw 83 pitches. So if you think
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: there's going to be a letdown after that, maybe not,
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: because he didn't throw that many pitches, so he's at
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: least not going to be overworked. He hasn't thrown that
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: many innings this year, and he's not a huge strikeout pitcher,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: but in the month of August, his strikeout rate went up.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: And he had pretty good command numbers here, even though
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: he had a couple of shaky starts in here. It
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: looks like he kind of came back into form over
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: his last two starts, which were both good. And he
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: picked up a win in both of them. He's got
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate here, very low walk rate. His
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is not impressive, but he's not a huge
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher. Although, again, it seems like he is increasing
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: his strikeouts recently. And his walk rate is so low
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: that he has a 4.1 strikeout walk ratio, which is
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: definitely solid. 7.1 strikeup per nine. Again, it's not great
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: at all, but this is not what he does, really.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Bennett against Baltimore, though. Baltimore does have some good numbers
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: off him. 18 career bats, 444 average, 1167 OPS, six
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: hitters have faced him. It's a small sample, so I
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: don't know if I'd really weigh this that heavily, but
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: Bennett has struggled specifically against Baltimore. However, it's like, well,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: when did that happen, right? Like, I went back and
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: I looked, and he had a game... against Baltimore at
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: home in July, and he picked up a win in
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: that game. He went five and two-thirds innings and allowed
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: three runs, had four strikeouts, no walks, but he did
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: allow nine hits, and that's where that high batting average
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: is mostly coming from. But it still wasn't even that
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: bad of a start, so I'm still going to lean
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: to the Red Sox in this game. Brandon Young is
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: pitching for Baltimore. I think he is the lesser of
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: the two pitchers here. 3.3 ADRA, but a 1.34 whip
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: is not very good. He's basically the same home and away,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: so he is consistent. His numbers are almost exactly the
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: same home and away. He's pretty good form-wise recently. His
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: last two starts were both good against Tampa, and then
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: in the A's stadium, he pitched quite well in that
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: difficult stadium, so he is kind of coming back in
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: a form here. Although his strikeout walk ratio was very
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: unimpressive in the month of August, and he was too hittable.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: So looking at the month of August as a whole,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Bennett is in the better form here out of the two.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: They're both pitching better over their last two starts, but
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: current form does go to Bennett here. Young, his hit
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: rate's a little high, I would say. It's near one
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: per inning. Doesn't really walk that many guys. Doesn't strike
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: out that many guys either, though. Young has a 2.2
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, which is not very good. 7.1 strikeout
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: per nine, so that's similar to what Bennett has going on,
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: but Young has walked way more guys than Bennett has.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: Young against the Red Sox. The Red Sox have hit
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: him in 13 at-bats, so it's only five guys who
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: have faced him. Everybody who's faced him except for Rafaela
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: has at least one hit off him. They have a
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: 385 average, 1121 OPS, 1-1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: So....
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: I like the Red Sox based on situation. I think
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: Bennett is the better pitcher here. Red Sox are around
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: minus 130 on the money line. There's a reason why
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: they're favored on the road like this. 83% of tickets,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: 95% of the cash on the Red Sox. They seem
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: to play better on the road this year anyway. And
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox, I forgot to look at all the
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: bullpen shit. Red Sox still have the better bullpen here.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: They only used two guys out of the bullpen. It
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: was a Bayo bullpen game. Bayo, he sucks, dude. Like,
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Bullpen Bayo is no longer a thing. He blows. The
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: Red Sox should not even have him on the roster.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: I'm done with Bayo. It's a failed experiment, but Baltimore
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: used six guys out of the bullpen yesterday. They might
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: have been in one of those extra inning games. Yeah,
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: they were. There were a bunch of extra inning games yesterday,
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: and Baltimore was in one of them. So Red Sox
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: have a more rested bullpen, and they have the better bullpen.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are number one still in whip. They're number
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: two in ERA. Again, it's Red Sox-Yankees both at the
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: top of the bullpen rankings here still. Baltimore is a
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: decent bullpen at number 11, but Red Sox definitely have
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: the edge there. Red Sox, hitting-wise, they're eighth. They haven't
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: been too bad. Baltimore, recently they've been hitting a lot better. Baltimore, 19th,
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: tied with Philly. So the Red Sox probably do have
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: an offensive edge as well. So, yeah, I like the
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Red Sox if you're going to play that one. It's
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: not on my card. Money also backing the over pretty
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: strongly and I also agree with that. The pitchers matchup
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: numbers both suck. Baltimore's bullpen is kind of shredded. Red
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: Sox bullpen hasn't been very good recently either. Eight and
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: a half is the number. I think the Red Sox
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: hit better on the road still. So yeah, I would
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: lean over in that game as well, but I think
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: the better way to play it is to play the
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: Red Sox on the money line. Milwaukee at the Cubs,
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: they're finishing this crazy series. It's on Fox here. The
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: Cubs lost yesterday, even though they were able to hit Mizurowski.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: Mizurowski allowed three runs for the first time all season,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: I believe was the number that I saw. I mean,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: I thought that he would have done that at least
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: at some point this season, but I don't know. I mean,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: he did not have his best yesterday, but it was
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: also one of those wind blowing out games. And at
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: least I didn't, I did not put the under in
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: that game on my card. Like I almost did. Every
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: game in the series has gone over so far. The
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: Cubs have had their last, I think, six games now
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: have all seen 12 or more runs scored. So the
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: Cubs are playing a lot of high-scoring games recently, and
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: they're going to be motivated here. The Cubs will be.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Brewers have done what they needed to
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: do in this series, right? The Brewers basically just need
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: to avoid getting swept here, and the worst the Brewers
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: can do is split the series at this point now.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: As the Brewers are up 2-1. Although the Brewers have
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher in this game too. After they
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: also did yesterday. Cubs probably have the more motivation here though.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: As far as the bullpen, the Cubs use a bunch
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: of guys. Was that an extra inning game too? They
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: used six guys out of the bullpen. That's a lot.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee used five. Let me see. I know Milwaukee won
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: by a lot. No, it was not an extra inning game.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: A lot of bullpen usage, though. I don't know what
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: that was. Yeah, it was a 9-5 final. Bullpen-wise, the
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: Brewers are number six. They're a good bullpen. I think
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: they're actually the third-best bullpen. The Cubs are number 13.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: Definitely not as good. Their ERA is back above four. Although,
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're that bad of a bullpen, but
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: the offenses have been really on fire recently. The Cubs
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: are number one on the season, and Milwaukee is number four.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: Logan Henderson pitching for Milwaukee. You know what? You might
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: finally get a low-scoring game in this one. Henderson's been
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: really good, and I back him on the show a
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: lot because he's good, and I think he's still under
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: the radar. 2.48 ERA,. 83 whip, very good. He's slightly
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: worse on the road, 2.89 road ERA, but that's still
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: really good. Very good form recently. won his last three
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: starts against a couple of pretty good offenses in there too,
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: Dodgers and Atlanta. One run allowed apiece in those starts,
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: six or more innings in all of them. Yeah, he's
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: definitely in really good form right now, really good command
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: numbers here. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: every start this entire season, although he hasn't pitched the
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: whole season, but that's still really good. Low hit rate,
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: low walk rate, high strikeout rate, really good numbers across
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: the board. 6.1 strikeout walk ratio is excellent overall. 10.1
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, quite good as well. Numbers against the Cubs,
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: they basically haven't even seen him. Only Arias has ever
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: seen him, and he's one for two with a strikeout.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: So Henderson has unfamiliarity here as well, and that usually
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: bodes well for a young pitcher that has a lot
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: of talent like he does. The opposing offense might have
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: to figure him out on the fly. So I think
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: for once, the Cubs' offense might be... shut down a
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: little bit more in this one, although it's been Milwaukee's
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: offense that's been really good the last two games. Will
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee be able to do damage against Kevin Gaussman is
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: the question. He's pitching for the Cubs. He's not had
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: his greatest season here with Toronto for most of it
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: and now with the Cubs. 4.52 ERA, 1.27 whip. He's
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: somewhat better at home, 4.14 home ERA, but his opponent
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: batting average at home is actually higher. Since joining the Cubs,
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: he hasn't really been that good ERA-wise. It's been very mediocre.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: He's been too hittable. His ERA is in the mid-fours
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: since joining the Cubs. It's not really great. He's struggled
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: in some starts. He wasn't very good in his last outing,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: although the Cubs have won five of his six starts, though.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: But they're definitely giving him some run support here. And
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: his command numbers are good, 33-8 strikeout walk ratio and
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: 33-2 innings with the Cubs, so that's good. But he's
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: been too hittable, and he's got to figure that out somehow.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: His hit rate's almost one per inning on the season.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: That's not good. His walk rate's not too bad. His
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is pretty good, actually. It's above one per inning.
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: Does allow some home runs, though. For a guy that's
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: not really a fly ball pitcher, that is definitely too
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: many home runs allowed. He's got a 3.6 strikeout walk ratio.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: That's not too bad. Strikeout per nine is at nine.
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's fairly solid as well. So he's still pitching.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: He's probably better than his numbers look, I will say that.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: And his numbers against Milwaukee are actually really good. In
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: 108 at-bats, 35-7 strikeout walk ratio, 185 average allowed.
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: 531 OPS.
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: I like the under in this game. The money seems
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: to agree with that. 57% of the tickets on the over,
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: 61% of the cash on the under. The total's at
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: eight and a half, which again, that worries me that
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: wind might be blowing out again in Wrigley, man. I mean,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: yesterday you knew that it was with a total of
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: like eight with Mizurowski on the mound. That was the
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: highest total in a Miz game all season, I'm pretty sure,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: or tied for it. So that told you the wind
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: was blowing out, and I think that had something to
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: do with Miz not having his best game yesterday. Maybe
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: that's a problem here too, though, because Gaussman is kind
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: of home run heavy, but I like the under. That's
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: the way I play this game. The money's coming in
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: on Milwaukee. They're at minus 114, somewhere in that range.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: 62% of the tickets, 92% of the cash on Milwaukee,
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: so the money agrees with Milwaukee. I probably agree with that.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: I think Henderson probably does have the upper hand over Gaussman,
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: but both pitchers look like they match up well here.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: Gausman is definitely in the lesser form right now, though
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: I will say that. But yeah, I think if I
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: was going to play the game, I like the under
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: more than trying to pick the side in that one.
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: Miami and Kansas City, this is going to be the
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: play that I have. I know people are not going
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: to like this, but we're going to take Kansas City
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: on the money line in the first five here. I
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: think we have a pitching matchup that is conducive for
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: Kansas City to actually get this done. And I think
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: the situation favors it. So we're going to take Kansas
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: City here only in the first five because their bullpen
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: is horrendous. So we will not deal with their bullpen.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: They used five guys out of the bullpen. So fuck that.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: Miami is the better bullpen. Miami used a bunch of guys.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: They used five. but actually kind of lighter usage from them.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Miami is the fifth-ranked bullpen. They're not that good. I mean,
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: their ERA is four, but they're an okay bullpen. Kansas
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: City is really bad. They're ranked dead last, according to this,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: where they're tied in whip with the A's. Again, the
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: A's are worse than Kansas City, but Kansas City is
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: the second-worst bullpen. They're one of three that has an
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: ERA of over five. Offensively, Miami's number 10, tied with
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: the White Sox and the Braves. Kansas City's number 16.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: Kansas City hits better at home. So we do have
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: that going for us here. Kansas City actually, by the way,
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: is 36-32 at home. They're a positive team. They have
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: a positive record at home, and Miami has a losing
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: road record, 29-42. So these teams both have extreme home
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: road splits. Miami is way better at home than they
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: are on the road. Kansas City is also way better
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: at home than they are on the road, and Kansas
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: City is the home team here. So I think that
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: helps us out with this play. Miami's on the verge
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: of a sweep after winning yesterday. You know what I
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: always say about that. When a team's on the verge
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: of a sweep, a lot of times they can overlook
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: that opponent, even though Miami is trying to make the
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: playoffs here. Miami's already won the series. They might take
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: Kansas City lightly here. And Miami's got a bigger series
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: on deck here. They're playing the Cubs tomorrow when Miami
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: gets home. So that's a bigger series for them. So
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: they might overlook the Royals in this last game here.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: And the Royals have at least been winning a lot
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: of recent games here up until this series. They've lost
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: three in a row now. But before that, they were
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: a really hot team So the Royals know how to win,
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: at least right now. And I like the pitching here, man.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: We're getting the best Royals starter on the mound here probably.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: I know he's going up against Miami's debatably best starter
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: as well, but I still think we have the edge here.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, I probably preferred if it was a different
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: pitcher from Miami, but I still like this. We're going
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: to fade Sandy Alcantara, even though I backed him in
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: the last game, which I believe was in the form
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: of an under against the Red Sox. He's got a 3.46 ERA, 1.19 whip,
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: good season from him. Although, you know, I mean, he's
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: pitching really well, but he does have his limitations post,
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: you know, Tommy John surgery and whatever. And he's not
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: as good on the road. 4.22 road ERA with a
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: much higher opponent batting average, 273. So he's definitely fadable
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: on the road. Actually, two starts ago was when we
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: had that under against the Red Sox. Last time out,
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: he struggled a little bit against Washington last time out.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: I don't remember if I had anything on that game
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: or not, but Miami's lost his last four starts. Even
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: though he's pitched fairly well in those starts, Miami's not
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: doing well behind him. They're not putting up runs behind him,
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: so I think that's a decent sign. He's kind of
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: walking too many people again. recently really it's not really
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: the walks actually it's just the ratio doesn't look good
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: 25 to 11 strikeout walk ratio that's because the strikeout
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: rate is is low like he just doesn't strike guys
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: out anymore although his era has been good the last
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: couple months it's been in the twos so yeah he
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: is pitching a lot better right now his hit rate's
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: pretty good on the season his walk rate is a
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: little bit high his strikeout rate is definitely low but
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: that's going to lend itself to a strikeout walk ratio
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: that's not very good at this point it's 2.8 very
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: mediocre his strikeout per nine is way low like it's
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: the lowest that he's ever posted 6.6 so again he
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: does have some limitations here He's not as good on
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: the road, and Kansas City at least has some good
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: power-hitting numbers against him. He's got 38 at-bats against him, a.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: 237 average against, which is low, but a. 788 OPS
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: is pretty high. They got home runs in here from Rave,
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: or is it Rave? Is he doing ecstasy and dancing
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: under flashing lights? I have no idea. Strobe lights. Rojas
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: is the other guy that has a home run against him.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: 6-6 strike-and-walk ratio here as well. although three of the
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: walks are Rojas. But, you know, also Waka is included
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: in here, so there's some pitchers in here who obviously
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: will not be hitting. Waka's 0 for 2. You can
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: throw that out, and then these numbers get a little
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: bit better. But, yeah, Alcantara, I don't think he has
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: the greatest matchup here, and he's not as good on
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: the road. We're going to back Waka in this one, man.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: Michael Walker, he's solid, and he tends to just go
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: under the radar because he's just not this, like, name pitcher.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really strike a bunch of guys out, but
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: he's pretty consistent. 3.32 ERA, 1.1 whip this year, good season.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: He's better at home, so the home road splits favor him.
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: and are against Alcantara here. 3.04 ERA at home for
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: Walker with a better opponent batting average in the low 200s.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: He was really good last time out against Cleveland. Eight
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: shutout innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks. He has
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: a really nice 25-4 strikeout walk ratio in the month
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: of August. That's good. And Kansas City won his last
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: three starts, and he won all of them. So as
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: far as what the teams are doing behind these two starters...
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: Miami's 0 for Alcantara's last four and Kansas City is
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: three for Waka's last three so the those trends uh
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: look pretty good for this what else do we have
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: to say here I don't know I mean Waka's hit
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: rate's been pretty good recently one thing I guess that
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: might concern you is he threw over 100 pitches in
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: that last game but he's a veteran man I mean
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: he's pretty used to it and He doesn't throw high velocity,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: so he should be fine. I think he's thrown over
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: 100 pitches multiple other times this year, although some of
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: his starts after those weren't very good. Some were. He's
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate, pretty low walk rate. His
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate's not good, but his strikeout walk ratio I'm
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: pretty sure is not that bad because the walk number's low. Yeah, 3.2.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: That's a decent ratio there, especially for a guy that
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: doesn't strike a lot of guys out. 7.2 strikeout walk ratio,
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: but that's pretty in line with what he's done throughout
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: his career. Waka against the Marlins, they're 0-10 off him.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: They only have five guys who have faced him, so
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: some of their guys are going to be unfamiliar against him,
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: but they're 0-10 with three strikeouts and one walk. Stowers,
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: or however you pronounce his name, is the only guy
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: that's reached base off him. One walk. Stowers, by the way,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: I think he was injured recently. He came back at
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: some point during the Red Sox series, but whatever. That's
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: still an 0-91 OPS for them against Waka. with a
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: zero batting average. So I think we get the matchup
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: edge here. I think we get the situational edge here.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: Home road splits favor this for both the starting pitchers
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: and the team. The teams, I should say. And the
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: market agrees with this as well in the full game.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: 68% of tickets, 55% of the cash on Miami. Miami's
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: a public side. The public is not going to play
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: Kansas City here. In fact, this is what I do, man.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: The public will probably complain about this, make fun of
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: this play. Whatever, man. I think it's the right side.
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: The number's about pick-em price on the full game, but
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: I found Kansas City, it's basically about the same in
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: the first five. Kansas City, maybe a slightly heavier favorite
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: in the first five, but I found it at a
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: minus 104. You'll definitely find a decent price on it,
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: like somewhere around minus 110. I would say probably around
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: the worst. All right. But shop around, man. That's why
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: I recommend having an account at every available book. Tampa
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: Bay at Texas. I do have some thoughts about this one.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: This one almost made the cut for me. Texas just
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: lost to the A's yesterday after they won three games
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: in a row. Texas is definitely fighting here, man. They're
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: trying to make the playoffs. They're only two games off
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: the division lead here, so they're not out of it
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: by any means. Tampa Bay needs to keep winning. after
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: they lost a series to the Mets, so the Yankees
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: have closed the gap on them a little bit. Tampa
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: Bay has got to keep winning, and they're starting a
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: road trip off an ugly loss. So both teams are
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: coming off ugly losses. This looks like a focus spot
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: for both teams here. So I don't think it's a
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: bad spot for either team. I think it's a positive
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: spot for both teams, coming off an ugly loss with
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: obvious reasons to be motivated for playoff positioning. As far
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: as the bullpens are concerned, Texas' bullpen has not been
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: good this year. They used three guys yesterday. Tampa Bay
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: used four. As far as the bullpens go, Tampa Bay
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: is ranked third. However, their ERA is over five, so
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: there's no way they're actually the third best. Or over four.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Excuse me. Over five would be really bad. Over four.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: I think they're an okay bullpen, but they're not as
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: good as number three, even though their whip puts them there.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: Texas is 21st. Texas has not been a very good
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: bullpen this year. Tampa Bay is the better offense. They're
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: number seven. Texas is number 18. So Tampa Bay does
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: have those edges, bullpen and hitting, and they probably have
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher. Shane McClanahan got pushed back for
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: Griffin Jacks yesterday, who came back. Uh, and wasn't good.
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: It looks like, but Shane McClanahan will be going today instead,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: even though he's not as good on the road as
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: he is at home. He's had a good season though. 3.19 ERA, 1.11 whip.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: He's basically, he's having a bounce back season. I don't know.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: Do they have a comeback player of the year award
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: or something? Because he'd be in the running for that
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: after he missed two entire seasons. He's been pretty good
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: this year. Uh, his ERA on the road is not
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: as good 3.91, but he's still pretty good either way. Uh, he,
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: Wasn't really great last time out against San Diego. They
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: picked up a win anyway. He's been okay recently. He's
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: not in the greatest form, although he's not pitching horribly
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: right now either. He does have a low hit rate
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: on the season. His walk rate is fairly low. Strikeout
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: rate reasonably high, although you got to keep in mind
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: that he hasn't pitched... in the majors in multiple years
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: so he's getting a little bit up there in innings
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: the 113 shouldn't really be that much yet but you
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: never know like he's only thrown more than 115 once
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: in his career and it was a lot more than
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: that in 2022 but he hasn't done that for a
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: while McClanahan has a 2.7 strikeout walk ratio. That's all right. 8.2
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. Those numbers are both lower than what
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: he's posted in the past, so I think he's still
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: kind of working his way back here, and we'll see
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: if he ever gets back to that level that he
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: once was, but he has still been good nonetheless. McClanahan
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: against Texas. They have 35 at-bats against them. They have
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: not really had much success. 171 average, 646 OPS. 9-5
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. So McClanahan, I think, does have the
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: upper hand here. And, you know, it's still a pitcher-friendly
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: park in Texas, even if it's not as under-heavy as
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: it was early in the season when the weather was
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: cooler or whatever. Texas still is an under-friendly ballpark. Cal
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: Quantrill is pitching for Texas. I don't know how this
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: guy is doing what he's doing this year. 3.01 ERA, 1.1 whip.
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's a 31-year-old journeyman pitcher who hasn't really...
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: done that well in the majors he's been fine like
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: he's been mediocre basically throughout his career I mean I
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: guess he's had like his 2021 season with Cleveland I
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: guess he did make a lot of starts and his
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: numbers were kind of similar to this so I guess
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: there is kind of precedent for this but the last
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: few years when he's been bouncing around his numbers are
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: really bad so I always considered him to be pretty
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: mediocre and his uh his career numbers would tell you
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: that But for whatever reason, he is pitching well this year,
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: and he's been good at home. 2.61 home ERA. He
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: has made 11 starts now for Texas. He's had 17
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: relief appearances. But I think he's fully entrenched in their
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: starting rotation now, and he's actually pitching quite well. He's
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start in
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: the month of August. One of them was a short stint,
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: but all of his actual starts were good. His last
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: start in the month of August, July, which was against Tampa,
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: by the way, was pretty good. He went 5-3, gave
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: up one earned run in Tampa, where Tampa is better.
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: Tampa's much better at home than they are on the road.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: 7-1 strikeout walk ratio there. Quantrill's in good form right now, man.
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: He's got a 29-4 strikeout walk ratio over the past
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: month with a low hit rate, so I think he's
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: backable here. He's better at home. The hit rate is low.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: Walk rate is also low. He doesn't strike guys out, though,
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: so the advanced analytics guys will have an issue with that.
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: But his strikeout walk ratio is above 3, which is
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: not that bad, 3.1. Strikeout per 9 is not impressive.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: It's 6.8. But he's going up against Tampa, who's the
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: better offense here. How good is he against Tampa? Well,
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: they have 45 at-bats against them and only a 178
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: average of 586 OPS, 13 to 6 strikeout walk ratio.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: I like the under in this one, man, as you
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: could probably figure out by now. The money is not
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: agreeing with that. 56% of tickets, 88% of the cash
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: on the over. The total's low. It's 7.5 juice to
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: the over. It is that way for a reason. Oddsmakers
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: think it'll be a low-scoring game. McClanahan is in the
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: worst of his home run. splits, and I still don't
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: think Quantrill is really this good. I almost did it, man.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, if I was going to add any other
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: play today, it would be this. I'm being very selective here,
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: but I like the under here. It's my second favorite.
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: And then I think after that, I would say Houston.
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: in the first five or whatever. I think it's probably
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: my third strongest opinion here. But my second strongest opinion
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: is the under in this Tampa Bay-Texas game. Almost made
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: the cut for me. A is at Seattle. Seattle's returning
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: home from a road trip with no time off. This
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: is kind of a bad spot here. They did win
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: the series against the Red Sox, and Seattle does need
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: to keep winning because they're still in the playoff hunt here.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: They're still in the wildcard race, and they still could
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: win their division. Now, They've had some issues, though they
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: did win those last two games. They had ideal pitching
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: matchups in the last two games pretty much, though. Now
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: they're returning home, and you know I always say when
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: a team returns home from the road, it can be
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: a negative. They've been away for a week. They've got
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: to get back to home life. Do you really think
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: they're going to be that focused on the A's who
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: are a pathetic team? Probably not. So I think it's
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: a bad spot. It could be a letdown after beating
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox, too. Plus, it's also worse because they
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: have to travel from east to west for a late game.
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: And you know I always talk about that. When teams
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: have to adjust to the Pacific time zone, or in
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: this case, readjust to it, it can be a negative.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: It can mess with your biological clock. You've got to
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: play late based on your biological clock. The game's probably
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: going to go up towards midnight based on your biological clock,
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: and you start tiring out. That's not good. So this
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: is definitely a negative spot for Seattle here. As far
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: as the A's, they're traveling as well. They're coming in
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: from the central time zone. But they just broke a
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: five-game losing streak or a six-game losing streak, whatever this was. Five,
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: I think. My stroke brain can't determine how many lines
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: there are anymore here. I think it was five. But
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: when teams end a losing streak, a lot of times
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: that will propel them forward with new momentum. So I
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: think the situation definitely favors the A's here. Although they
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: are having to travel back to the Pacific time zone
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: from the central time zone here. I would like the
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: A's more if they, well, first of all, if they
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: didn't suck. Although that'll be factored into the line. But
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: second of all, if they're already on the Pacific time
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: zone or in the Pacific time zone, I would like
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: it better. They're having to travel from Central, which is
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: still going to be annoying. They're still going to have
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: to play until like 11 o'clock based on their biological clock.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: So that's still not good. But it's more of a
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: negative for Seattle for sure. So I'd be maybe slightly
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: leaning towards the A's here. Even though that sounds kind
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: of insane. I mean, you can't back the A's bullpen.
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: The A's bullpen is awful. The worst in baseball, in fact.
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: And this won't load. Again, this fucking site, man. Roto-wire.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: Fuck you, man. Look at this shit. It's not loading.
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: You son of a bitch. Seattle used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: The A's still won't load. Their bullpen is so shitty
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: they won't even load. That's what's going on. The A's
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: are the worst bullpen in baseball. They're ranked 29th according
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: to this ranking, but they have the same whip as
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, whatever. They're terrible. They're the worst bullpen, by
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: far the worst ERA. The bullpen edge goes to Seattle,
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: but their bullpen has not been good recently. They're number
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: 20 on the season. Not as good of a bullpen
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: as they should be based on who's in their bullpen.
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: The A's only used two guys in their bullpen yesterday,
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: but they still blow. So Seattle does still have a
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: bullpen advantage here. Hitting-wise, the A's are the better team.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: They're number 14 in hitting. Seattle's been really bad offensively.
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: They're still number 29, even after hitting pretty well in
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: Fenway Park. But they're back in Seattle here, so... their
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: hitting is probably going to diminish a bit at home
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: in a very pitcher-friendly park. But the pitcher-friendly park also
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: might help Jack Perkins, who's pitching for the A's. I
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: think he's much better than his numbers suggest, 6.42 ERA, 1.49 whip.
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: But he's got good strikeout stuff, and I think he's
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: going to do better when he's on the road, which
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: has been the case, although I know his ERA is
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: still not that good, 5.58 on the road. But he
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: is better on the road than he is in that
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: shitty Sacramento stadium, and he only allows a 240 average
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: on the road. So he's definitely better on the road.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: He's been better recently, although his walk rate is definitely
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: a problem. He's walking too many guys. He is allowing
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: still too many hits recently, but a lot of that
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: was in this one start against Tampa Bay. He's kind
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: of turned that around. He's been better, allowing one run
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: each in five innings in his last two starts. Too
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: many walks, though. He's got to fix that, but he
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: is striking guys out at a pretty high rate here.
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: He does have two high of a hit rate. He
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: does have two high of a walk rate, but he
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: has a really good strikeout rate. That does tell you
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: he does have talent. He can strike guys out at
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: the major league level. Strikeout walk ratio 2.6, which is
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: not good if you have a strikeout rate that high.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: It means your walk rate is enormous, which it is. 10.3
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, really good though. Numbers against, who are
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: we talking about here? Seattle, right?
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: He's actually been good against Seattle. They have 27 at-bats
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: against them. Basically, everybody in their lineup has seen him before.
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: 148 average, 519 OPS, 9-0 strikeout walk ratio. So I
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: like Perkins to actually do well in this game. Seattle
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: is going with Cade Anderson, who is very young, 22.
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: He's like a tall, slender left-hander. They called him up
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: from the minors earlier. pretty recently, and he has not
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: been that good so far. His numbers in the minors,
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: he was dominating. He was absolutely dominating in AA, but
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: they didn't have him pitch a AAA because Seattle has
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: this high elevation AAA team. I said they should have
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: brought him up to AAA, man, so that he could
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: face off against more difficult hitting than AA, and he
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: could acclimate himself to that high elevation. And if you
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: do that, it will prepare you better because then you
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: get to go to Seattle, and Seattle's a way more
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: pitcher-friendly environment. You know what I mean? So I think
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: Seattle's being stupid. They should battle test their pitchers in AAA, man.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: This is fucking stupid. Anderson in two starts is a 4.5 ERA, 1.3 whip.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: I know that's not that bad. His home start was
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: worse than his road start. 4.76 home ERA. Only one
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: start at home against the Cubs. They're a really good offense.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: He did reasonably well in that start, and they wound
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: up winning the game. He wasn't good against Toronto in
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: Toronto last time, although he failed to make it five innings.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: His walk numbers went too high. That's not a good
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: sign because you'd figure Toronto would have been a much
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: better opponent for him to face, and I believe we
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: actually still won on the under in that game. So
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: he did well enough to get us the under there,
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: which I assume it was against some good pitcher for Toronto.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: I forget who it was. Who was it for Toronto? Oh, Soriano.
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: It must have been Soriano because he's pitching today. So, yeah,
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: I think it was. Anyway, Anderson has an 8-5 strikeout
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: walk ratio so far with 8 hits allowed in 10 innings.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: The hit rate is fine, but the walk rate is
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: definitely too high. The strikeout rate is less than ideal.
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: A's haven't seen him before, so he does have that
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: unfamiliarity edge. And he does still have talent, so based
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: on what he did in AA at least, as he
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: was one of the highest rated pitching prospects based on
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: his dominance in AA. So he does have the unfamiliarity here.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: It's a low total. I mean, the under is definitely
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: in the conversation here in this game. I would lean
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: under in this one, but I kind of prefer the
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: A's in the first five. The under, I think, does
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: make some sense. The money doesn't totally agree with it.
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: 82% of tickets, 87% of the cash on the over.
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: Totals at seven. I mean, it's low. It's low for
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: a reason, man. Oddsmakers think this is going to be
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game. And I agree. I would still
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: lean under in this game, but I think the preferable
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: way to play this, in my opinion, is to attack
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: how bad a situation it is for Seattle, go with
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: the good matchup numbers with Perkins being an under-the-radar pitcher
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: who's better than his numbers look. I would take the
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: A's in the first five here, man. You'll get them
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: at a big underdog price. Seattle's minus 210 or something, basically,
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: in the full game. 88% of tickets, only 83% of
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: the cash on Seattle. So the money is agreeing with
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: fading Seattle. They're a super public side here. The A's
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: as usual, getting very disrespected in the market. And yeah,
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: they suck, but I think this is a spot where
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: you could take the A's on the run line in
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: the first five and Perkins might be able to get
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: you there, man. He's not as bad as people think.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: And he's at least good specifically against Seattle. And this
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: is a it's kind of an ideal environment for him
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: to pitch in because it's a way more pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: So that's what I think about that. And also still
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: lean under there, uh, St. Louis and the Dodgers. I
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: don't even really want to talk about it. If the
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: Dodgers lose this game with Scooble on the mound, I
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: don't know what to tell you, man. Dodgers are about
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: to get swept in this series. So you got to
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: think the Dodgers are going to show up motivated and
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: they should have won yesterday. Um, St. Louis isn't really
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: going to overlook the Dodgers, though. I mean, they only
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: play Colorado next.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: St.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: Louis is going to try to get the sweep here. Like,
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: you're not going to overlook the Dodgers even if you
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: just beat them two games.
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: St.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Louis might still think that maybe they can make the playoffs.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: So that was an extra inning game, and St. Louis
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: used seven relief pitchers. Their bullpen is not good. The
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: Dodgers only used three, so the Dodgers' bullpen sets up
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: better in this game and they're the better bullpen anyway,
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: which is why I went full game yesterday and first
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: five would have won Dude, those losses were such bullshit yesterday,
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: especially the under in the Anaheim game. I'm so fucking pissed. Like, dude,
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: a 1-1 game at the end of 9, it's impossible
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: for that game to go over. Just, everything is rigged, dude. Although,
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: I think it was, it makes no sense because the
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: public was on the Yankees and probably on the over
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: so why would they rig it towards the Yankees and
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: the over and I knew some professionals that were on
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: the Yankees side in that game yesterday too so Yeah,
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know what the fuck is
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: going on. Anyway, Dodgers are the number 10 bullpen. They're
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: an okay bullpen. St. Louis is 22nd. They are not
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: very good, and they're way more used up, so I
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: would definitely fade St. Louis' bullpen in this one or
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: avoid them. Hitting-wise, the Dodgers are also the better team.
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: They're number two. There's a big gap here.
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: St.
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: Louis is number 25. Quinn Matthews is getting the start
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: for St.
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: He was good last time out. I think we tried
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: to fade him, and he actually did pretty well. Those
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: numbers are not good overall. 5.03 ERA, 1.58 WIP, but
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: he is still a young guy. And you want to
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: talk about slender. This guy is, like, slender man. He's 6'5, 188. Like,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: this guy disappears when he turns sideways. Like, what the
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: fuck is that? He's going to fall into a crack. Like,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: how could you possibly be that thin? Anyway, Matthews, he's
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: had some good outings, but he's been bad on the road. 6.43
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He's only made four starts so far. Basically,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: I would say two to three out of the four
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: have been good, though. His one bad start was on
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: the road at Philly. Last time out, he was a
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: lot better again against Pittsburgh. and I believe he beat
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: us in that game. I think we had Pittsburgh on
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: the show in that one. He's got some decent numbers
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: in here. I mean, he's a bit too hittable, but
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: his walk rate's not that bad. His strikeout rate is high.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: So Matthews is definitely better than his numbers make him look.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: I will say that. He's got an okay 2.5 strikeout
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: walk ratio so far. You still want to get that
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: walk number down, but he's got a 9.2 strikeout per nine.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: That's not bad. Dodgers have never seen him before. I
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: don't know, though, man. I mean, this is a difficult
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: opponent to have to face. And it's on the road,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: so it's up in the air. He could pitch really
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: well here, or he could struggle. I could see both
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: things happening. I think he's got a lot of variance here.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: I think there's a lot less variance with Tarek Skubo,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: who's pitching for the Dodgers here. 2.84 ERA,. 94 whip
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: on the season with Detroit and now with the Dodgers.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit worse as a home pitcher, 3.53
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: home ERA. With the Dodgers, he's been good, though. He's
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: been good pretty much most of the season. I mean,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: people were talking about, like, oh, Scooble is dead now
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: or whatever back in the middle of the season when
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: he was having a few struggles, but he never allowed
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: more than four runs in any start on the entire season.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: And with the Dodgers now at five starts, he's allowed
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: three or fewer in every start, and he's got at
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: least five innings in all of them, at least six
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: in all but one of them. So, yeah, he's pitching well.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: He has a really good strikeout walk ratio, isn't allowing
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: that many hits. I mean, there's not anything to really
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: dislike here. He's got a 7.3 strikeout per nine this year,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: or strikeout walk ratio, excuse me. His strikeout per nine
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: is better than that. Strikeout walk ratio, that's really, really high.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: So he has really good command there. 10.9 is his
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, which is pretty strong as well. And
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: just overall, I mean, we know what he does. He
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: doesn't allow many hits. He allows very few walks. He
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: strikes out a ton of guys. His numbers against St.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: Louis are pretty good, as you could expect. They only
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: have five guys who have faced him. 25 at-bats, 240 average,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: 576 OPS, 10-2 strikeout walk ratio. The money's fading the
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: Dodgers again here, man, and it's because they're like minus 300. Obviously,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: you cannot play the Dodgers at minus 300. You know
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: you're having to pay for Dodgers plus Scooble, but you
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: gotta think they're gonna be motivated to avoid the sweep here.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: 82% of tickets, 51% of the cash on the Dodgers,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: so the money's fading them. The money is playing the over.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: The total's low at 7.5. I mean, I would say
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: maybe you could look at like a Dodger team total
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: in this one, but... If you do that, you're taking
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: out one of your biggest advantages you have with them,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: which is school ball. I don't know, man. I mean,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: the price basically almost makes this game unplayable. I think
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers should win, but even the run line is
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: going to be very expensive here. You're going to be
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: looking at laying maybe two, two and a half. You
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: can't do that in baseball. I would never lay more
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: than minus one and a half, and even that is
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: a rarity, and I think we should have won with
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: it yesterday. Yeah, I mean, it's hard to figure out
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: what to do with this game. I think your only option,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: if you think the Dodgers are going to win, which
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: I kind of do, I think the only option is
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: to moneyline parlay them with something else. But the money
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: is definitely coming in against them, although some of that
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: has to do with the price just being ridiculous. And
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: maybe Matthews can kind of hang in there in that game. St.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: Louis' bullpen is a major disadvantage in this game, though. Yeah,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: so some form of Dodgers full game play makes sense.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: It's just how do you want to attack this? If
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: you find a favorite that you like, you could take
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers money line and parlay them with another favorite
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: in that price range. I hate parlays. You know I
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: hate parlays. The odds makers never give you good enough
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: odds on them. But I think the professionals will basically
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: say that the two types of parlays that are basically
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: acceptable are a correlated parlay, where you think a side
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: is correlated to a total in the same game, and
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: you parlay those. When you parlay, you have to make
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: both legs of the parlay at the same book, right?
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: Because it's one bet. It's a parlay. Basically, it gets
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: meshed into one bet. A lot of books don't allow those.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Like, oh, I'm going to
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: take this huge college football underdog and also the under
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: in this game. A lot of books won't even let
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: you do that. Because they know there's actually an advantage
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: to a correlated parlay. But I guess the other parlay
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: that some professionals will still deem acceptable is when you
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: take two favorites like this that you think have a
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: really good shot of winning and Get the prices down
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: by parlaying. Only two, though. Not more than two. Because
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: any more than that, and you're just adding unnecessary variance
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: into that parlay. Of course, one busted leg is going
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: to bust the whole parlay. You know what I mean? Basically,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: that's what they say, but I don't do it. I
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: would not even want to do that. But that is
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: an option with the Dodgers here. I'm going to be
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: right back, and then there's college football. There are only
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: four FBS games today. Actually, they're BS games. There are
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: a bunch of FCS games or FCS versus FBS games,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: which you can bet them. I mean, they're all bettable
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: at this point. The books have those games now, but
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: I just don't do it. I focus on FBS and football,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: and then I do do all of Division I and
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: college basketball, even though it's insane. But I'll be right back. Yep. Inside,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We were on an 0-7
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight. It was
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't even know
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: what to tell you about that. I just don't want
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: to do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this, man.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: day at all, 0-4. I just have not had a
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: good season, man. What can this slump... Then I'm on
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: and the slump continues. I've reached a new peak, actually.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: March 8th?
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: College football, I'm not interested in making a play in
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: these games tonight. These games are ugly. I don't have
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: a gauge on these games, really. But I'm going to
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: talk about the FBS ones. And I am almost certain,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: if you see my tweets, you already know what it is.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: I'm almost certain I will have a college football play
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: tomorrow night in the Friday slate. There's one game that
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: I like a lot in that slate. And I... I mean,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: I can tell you what it is right now if
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: you want, but I'll give the explanation tomorrow. It would
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: be Stanford plus the points, but there are a lot
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: of reasons why I like it. You can play it now.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think the public is going to keep
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: that line. It's against Miami, so the public is definitely
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: going to be coming in on Miami, so I don't
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: think you necessarily need to play it now, but I
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: think the line's 24 and a half, and there's no
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: real reason to wait because I don't think it's going
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: to go up to like 27 or anything, which would
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: be the next really key number there, so 20, as
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: long as you can get a 24 and a half,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: I think you could just play it. Cause I don't
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: think you're going to get that much better of a
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: number on it. Even if the public drives it up
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: to 25 or whatever. I mean, it's, there's not that
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: much of a difference there. Although if you wait, I
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: don't think you're going to lose the best number. I
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: would say. All right. Um, first game that's in the, uh,
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: FBS is UMass at Rutgers on big 10 network at
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: 6 PM UMass. I thought they were leaving. I thought
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: they were going back down to FCS, man. Um, They're not.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: They're still in the MAAC. I don't know what the
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: deal is with them. They were awful. They were historically
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: bad last year. They were the worst team in America.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: FBS football, and it wasn't even close. They were the
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: worst team in the offensive rankings and the defensive rankings.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: What is there to like about UMass here? I don't know. Seriously,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: I thought that they had decided we're leaving, we're going
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: back to FCS. No.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: No.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: I guess not. So they're going to have another year
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: of this, playing in the MAAC. Yeah, great. They're playing
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: against Rutgers. Rutgers is not a particularly good team. Rutgers
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: did lose their quarterback, and in fact, all the FBS
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: teams today, I don't think any of them have a
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: returning quarterback. So there's not a lot of returning starters
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: from any of these teams here. Rutgers has some of
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: the most, though, out of any of the teams that
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: are playing today. Rutgers has eight returning starters, so there's
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: some continuity here with Rutgers. It's four on the offense,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: four on the defense. UMass only a six the majority
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: of them on the defensive side but maybe it's good
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: that UMass has most of those guys not coming back
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: because they sucked Rutgers of course is a massive favorite
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: here in this game they're a 28 and a half
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: point favorite here it actually went down from an opener
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: of 30 and a half but no real key number
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: between those two. I mean, 30, I guess, is slightly key,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: but the key numbers are 31 and 28. So if
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: you do like UMass, you're still getting... a good number
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: on that key number. The total's not that high at 52,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: and you know I like taking big underdogs with low-ish,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: lower totals. The money is coming in on UMass here,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: and it looks like that has been the case since
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: the start, and some of the money looks like it
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: initially came in on the under as well. 62%, although
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: the money's coming in on the over now, it looks like,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: but 62% of tickets on Rutgers, 54% of the cash
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: on UMass. Nobody, nobody is gonna back UMass here because
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: of how bad they were last year. Rutgers though, I mean,
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: their quarterback that they had the last couple of years
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: or whatever, Kaliak Manas, he's gone. And then I think
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: they had one other quarterback was pretty good, who I
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: think is now, I'd have to refresh. I think their
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: other quarterback that they had, I might get this wrong.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: I think their other quarterback is now, I can't remember.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: I can't remember. I don't want to speculate, but whatever.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: Rutgers is going to have a new quarterback here. I
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: don't think either team changed their coach or whatever. I
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: got nothing, really, on this game. I guess I'd probably
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: lean UMass just because they had such a bad season
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: last year. Like, nobody is going to come in backing
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: them here, and it is a massive spread. And Rutgers,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's the first game of the season. It
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: also is a situation where, you know, you're talking about Rutgers,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: the Big Ten team. They're not exactly a good Big
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: Ten team, but... It might be a situation where Rutgers
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: has a big lead at the end of the game.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: A game like this, the back door is always open.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: If Rutgers has a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter,
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: they might just take their starters out and let some
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: of their backups play, and then UMass might be able
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: to score back door here. Rutgers, I don't think, is
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: necessarily going to be that good of an offense this
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: year either. Although with Kaliak Manas, they actually did pretty
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: well offensively, but I don't see that being the case
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: this year. I'd lean to UMass here, plus the points.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do it. I mean, UMass was so,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: so egregiously bad last year that they almost couldn't really
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: even hang with anybody, so I don't know. These games
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: are ugly, man. There's only one actual interesting game out
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: of these FBS games here. Akron is playing Wake Forest
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: on ACC Network at 7 p.m. These games are all
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: hosted by the home team. There's no neutral site game
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: or anything. Wake Forest was a 22.5 point favorite at Open.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: If you like Wake Forest, you already missed the boat
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: because it's already gone through that key number at 24,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: at 24.5. Now, it looks like the real money is
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: back in Wake Forest here. 69% of tickets, 81% of
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: the cash on Wake. I'm not so sure, man. Wake,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think they overperformed last year. Wake is
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: usually not that good of a team. I mean, these
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: MAAC teams are ass. I know we have MAAC teams
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: in both these first games here. Akron is at least
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: better than UMass, although Wake is probably better than Rutgers
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: as well. Well, actually, maybe not. I'm not sure. Wake,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: I think they overperformed last year. I think they made
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: a bowl for the first time in quite a while,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: and whatever the case was, I'm not really sold on
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: this team. This total is unbelievably low, 48.5, 48.5. You
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: really want to lay 24 and a half with a
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: spread of 48? Are you kidding me? What does that
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: come out to? That comes out to... It's almost the
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: same as the Stanford game we're going to talk about tomorrow.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: They're basically telling you the game's going to be what?
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: I forget what that comes out to. It's like a 30...
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: Like 37 to 11, somewhere in that range is basically
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: what they're saying the final score is going to be.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: I don't even know if Wake Forest is going to
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: be able to score enough to do that, which the
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers are telling you that by lining the total this low,
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: I would not lay the points with Wake here. I
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: think they're going to take a step back here. I'd
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: lean towards Akron plus the points here, but yeah, I mean,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: it's mostly just because the spread is so big and
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: the total is so low. Akron does have nine returning starters,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: including their running back and one of their wide receivers,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: and the majority of their O-line coming back, so they
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: have some continuity there. Wake, though, does have 10 returning starters,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: and it's almost their entire defense is coming back, so
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: Wake does have continuity there, but they're losing their offense
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: pretty much, so their offense might struggle early on, and that's,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: even if their defense is good, like to start out,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: the offense might just be doing nothing early, and that's
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: not what you want. You don't want to Totally rebuilt offense.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: First game where they have to learn, you know, whatever.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: They have to get up to speed. You don't want
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: to lay 24 and a half points with a totally
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: revamped offense. Yeah, no thank you. And by the way,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: first game of the season, a lot of times offenses
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: start slow. So unders tend to make more sense a
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: little bit in the first game or especially in the
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: first half of the first game of the season because
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: defenses are usually ready to go. Like it's easier to
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: learn the defensive playbook. You're already up to speed. Offense,
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of nuance that teams have to learn
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: and whatever. And even if teams have continuity, they've been
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: off for a while, right? So they still have to
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: get back up to speed. So a lot of times
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: the offenses struggle earlier in these early games here.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: Garrett, what's up? Gio Lopez, is he there now? He was.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: Lopez was... He was on UNC last year, wasn't he?
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: He was a Belichick guy. He was on South Alabama
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: before that. He sucks. Dude, like... Yeah, like, what do
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: you want? Dude, the Dodgers should have covered. They were
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: up 5-2 in the 7th inning. They had a 3-0
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: lead in the first fucking inning. And then they couldn't
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: score for, like, five innings in a row against St.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: Louis' bullpen. Are you kidding me? The worst one was
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: the under. The under in that other game. Both would
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: have won in the first five. The under in that
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: other game, there's no fucking way that it should have lost.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: Two runs in the first nine innings of that game.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: Two runs. And then what happens? Seven runs in the
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: 10th inning alone. Seven.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: Seven.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: Are you fucking kidding me? I'm done. I'm done. I
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: cannot talk about this. Yeah, well, obviously don't blame me.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you're betting this shit, I mean, it's
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: on you. Don't listen to me. Do not listen to me.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: I do not have any college football plays, like I said.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, the next FBS game here... is Colorado and
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: Georgia Tech. This is the ESPN game. This is the
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: only really competitive matchup out of any of these. It's
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: the only one with a spread that's not above 20.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: It's a rematch of last year where Georgia Tech went
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: into Colorado and beat Colorado in Colorado last year, but
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: Georgia Tech had Haynes King, and he was their stud,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: you know, dual-threat quarterback who was, I think he was
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: like in the Heisman running, if I'm not mistaken. Georgia
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: Tech was really good with Haynes King there, but he's
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: not there anymore. He's in the NFL. And he's looked
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: fairly good at times in the preseason. I think he's
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: on Carolina. Georgia Tech does not have him anymore, so
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: this might be kind of a road revenge type of
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: spot for Colorado if you think they kind of remember
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: what happened last year. Colorado has to go east for this,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: but it shouldn't be that difficult for them to go
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: east and play a night game. You know what I mean? Plus,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: it's the first game of the season, so I don't
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: think that travel is going to really mess with them
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: much at all. So that has me kind of thinking
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: about Colorado here. I think the money's kind of disagreeing
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: with that, though, and there's nothing that I really like
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: necessarily about this game. Colorado's bringing back four, five starters,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: excuse me, four on the offense, including their running back,
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: at least, but a lot of turnover there. Like I said,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: none of these teams today are bringing back their QBs.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: Georgia Tech has seven returning starters, mostly on the defense,
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: so some of their defense is staying intact, but They're
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: definitely going to take a step back this year. I mean,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: Haynes King is a guy that does not come to
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: a school like Georgia Tech very often. That's why Georgia
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: Tech had such a good season last year. They're definitely
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: taking a step back this season. I don't think there
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: are any coaching changes here on the game today except
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: for UAB, which I'm going to talk about in a second.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: This game, the money is actually back in Colorado at
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: this point. When I looked at it earlier, it looked
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: like it was slightly on the Georgia Tech side, but
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: 77% of tickets, 72% of the cash on Georgia Tech.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: They're laying six and a half. Yeah, I'm going to
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: lean to Colorado in this one. The money looks like
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: it's on the under in this one as well. But yeah,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: 51 is the total here. So if you like the total,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: it is on that key number. You might be able,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: you'll probably be able to get a 51 and a
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: half if you do like the under there, but I
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: like Colorado. And if you play Colorado, you got to
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: find a seven. I mean, the numbers teetering between six
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: and a half and seven. I think some of these
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: books are going to have a seven. Like, if you
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: don't see it yet, I would just wait. If you
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: like Colorado, I would wait, because if you lose the 6.5
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: and it drops to 6, who cares? Like, there's not
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: much of a difference there. But the public is on
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: Georgia Tech, so I think this line may hit a
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: 7 at some books prior to this game kicking off.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: So if you play Colorado, you've got to find the 7.
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: I would lean that way. I would lean towards Colorado.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: I don't like either team here, really. I'm not high
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: on either team this year. I mean, Colorado, I think
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: they still have Deion Sanders there as their coach, but
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know how well that's really working out. I
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: didn't even think they were that good when they had
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: Shador there, man. So, like, whatever. I don't like either
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: of these teams this year, but whatever. I would lean
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: towards taking the points slightly. It's not a particularly low
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: total for a 6.5-7 game, but whatever. And then UAB
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: is at Illinois here. UAB is totally revamping. UAB has
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: a new coach, which is Alex Mortensen, who was their
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: offensive coordinator. They moved him up to head coach. This
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: says that this is a D grade and that it's
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: not that good. He's taking over for Trent Dilfer, who,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: believe it or not, was the coach. I think Dilfer
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: must have gone to UAB then because he was the coach. Hey,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl winning quarterback, Trent Dilfer, man. He was the coach.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: Things were not getting done with UAB, so they fired
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: him and they brought the offensive coordinator up. Now, the
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: good thing about that, though, is that the offensive coordinator
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: was in the same system, right? So you're going to
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: be running the same offense.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: So.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: you'll be able to kind of have that continuity there.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: But the problem is they don't have continuity in their
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: player personnel. They're only returning three starters. So having the
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: OC moving up to head coach, yeah, it might be
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: the same system, but you're still going to have to
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: bring all these new guys in. So I don't really
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: love that. Illinois, I mean, they have seven returning starters,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: four on the offense, three on the defense. Illinois' defense
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: was ass last year. Their offense was good, but a
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: lot of that was because of Altmeyer, who is no
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: longer there. He's in the NFL now. So I think
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: there are going to be some struggles for Illinois this
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: year as well. I don't know what to think about
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: this game. The money is coming in on the over,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: and I kind of agree with that. It's a high total, 55.5.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: I'm not good with these totals, man, in anything besides baseball.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. This just felt like you're looking
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: at two pretty bad defenses here. Now, I know offenses,
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: like I said, they do tend to get off to
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: a slow start, and that would be the problem. If
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: you want to play the over here, you'd really need
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: those offenses to get going here. By the time the
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: second quarter rolls around, these offenses need to kind of
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: be in rhythm, used to playing, and then maybe the
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: offenses can break out a little bit here. Illinois is
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: also a 27.5 point favorite. This line basically hasn't moved.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: 59% of the tickets on Illinois, 58% of the cash.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: The money is slightly indicating towards UAB. I've got nothing
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: on this, man. UAB with the new coach, I know
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: they brought him up from within, but They're bringing back...
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're not bringing back anybody. This is a
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: total rebuild for UAB here, whereas Illinois, at least they
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: have some continuity here.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, I might slightly lean towards laying the points
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: in that one, and it's the highest total on the board,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: so at least it's a little bit more conducive to
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: the favorite covering, but whatever. Yes. Well, thank you. Thank
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: you for the jewels. Yes, sir. You're going to take it?
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not necessarily recommending that, but I think
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: that is my... That is my lean on that game,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: I would say. That's maybe the best of the leans
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: that I have in college football. I do not like
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: this college football slate, but we also have a bunch
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: of FCS, FBS games here, which are games that I
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: don't really delve into, and a lot of them have
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: massive spreads. I mean, it's just kind of hilarious. I mean,
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: none of these games would really interest me anyway. They're
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: pretty non-competitive, FBS versus FCS. Some of the FCS teams
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: might surprise, though, you know? So we will see, but...
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: My focus is FBS and football, and I do all
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: of D1 in basketball. All right. I thought the show
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: would be shorter than this, but whatever. We have one play.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: It's a pretty short board today. Short card. The only
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: play is the Kansas City Royals in the first five.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: This is a situational play, and it's home versus road
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: split play, and sort of Current trend play. I like it.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: We're taking the Royals in the first five. Do not
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: include their bullpen because they are ass. But you know
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: what's going to happen. You know the full game's going
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: to win and the first five isn't. Some bullshit's going
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: to happen here. But we're going to do it. We're
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: backing Michael Walker in this one. So we're backing a
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: starter that is at least actually not bad. Let's get
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: it done, man. That's the only play today. We should
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: have won all three plays yesterday. I'm fucking pissed. A 2-1,
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: I would have at least accepted. Yes, I would have
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: accepted the Dodgers' loss. The loss on that under was
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: totally unacceptable. Just complete bullshit. The Ghostrunner has to go away.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: I fucking hate Major League Baseball, dude. I hate it.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: I'm really happy the football is back because I think
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: I've got a good gauge on it. I already kind
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: of let it slip, but Stanford is highly likely to
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: be one of my plays tomorrow. in football, Stanford plus
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: the points. There are a lot of reasons I really
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: like that play. That's going to do it for now.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: Learn to Tote on Twitter. Learn to Tote on Instagram. Like,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel here. Listen on audio. If you
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: subscribe here, I'll have some NFL preview content too. The
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: NFL starts on Wednesday next week now, and then there's
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: also going to be a Thursday night game. So the
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl rematch game is actually Wednesday. I don't know
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: why they're doing this, man. Like, they're changing... The tradition, again,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: it's been a tradition for a while now that the
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl winner hosts the first Thursday night game, and
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: that's the NFL kickoff. Nope, now it's going to be Wednesday,
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: and it just happens to be against the Patriots. Seahawks-Patriots, yeah, whatever.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: Hard Knocks, I think, just finished. I watched this week's episode.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: I think that was the last episode of Hard Knocks
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: with the Seattle Seahawks. It was decent. I mean, it
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: was entertaining enough. A couple of the players are... Kind
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: of crazy on Seattle. I don't know. I mean, Derek
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: Hall or whatever his name is kind of rubbed me
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: the wrong way there, but whatever. I'm going off on
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: tangents again. Subscribe here, and you'll get notified with the
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: NFL preview stuff. I got to talk to Clint to
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: see when we're going to do bald, and I think
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: I might have my final NFL preview where I might
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: change some of my opinions, but my win totals, like
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: I said, that I thought were the best that I
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: gave out months ago at this point, probably, or maybe
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: a month ago, I still like all of those.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 4: So.
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: I'm not changing my opinions on those. Anyway, the ones
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: that I thought were really good, anyway. What else do
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: I have? Oh, yeah, we're on audio. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: Check it out. Numbers are doing better over there, so
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: that's not too bad. Covered in Uke is my Uke
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: channel on YouTube. Ukulele covers. You can check that out. Patreon.com
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: slash LearnToTote if you want to support me that way.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: And the LoserCast every Tuesday night. And because the NFL
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: is starting... Giants G spot podcast. I don't know, man.
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm pretty sure they're playing on Sunday. So
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: we've got to figure that out next Sunday. I mean,
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: next week, next week is when the NFL starts this
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: week upcoming though. Of course, tomorrow night, I'm going to
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: have my week one college football show. And it's going
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: to be the first one of those really long ass
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: fucking shows that take me two to three hours. Even
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: though I don't talk about every game either, um, because
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: it's just impossible, but we'll see. I don't know how
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: many plays I'm going to have, but the, The only
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: one that really jumped off the page at me was
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: the one that I like tomorrow night. So we'll see
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: what else I can find when I really start digging.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: I should already be digging into it, but you know me.
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, I dig into it like
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: in just the last couple of days. So sometimes I
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: miss some of the line moves, but it's just, I
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: don't know. It's the way that it is because I'm
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: focused on the daily sports while I'm trying to do
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: all this. That's going to do it. I think that's it.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out, everybody. Yes, fuck the Ghostrunner. Dude,
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: it needs to go away. Unders die when it goes
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: to extra innings because of that. But even that one
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: last night, there was almost no chance that was going
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: to lose. Even if it went into extra innings, there
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: was almost no chance of it. It is such bullshit.
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: And it was still a push going into the bottom
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: of that inning after an unheard of top of the inning.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: I'm so fucking pissed. And it was all with two outs, too,
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: in the top of that inning. That's going to do it.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: Peace.
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have to
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 3: lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 3: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 3: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on. You're still here now. Thank you.