Latest / Financial Survival Network / NutStuff - it's Just Common Sense-- William Nutting #5969

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NutStuff - it's Just Common Sense-- William Nutting #5969 · Financial Survival Network

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  I think the biggest challenge, Well, it depends entirely on what you're on,
• 0:04
  what your profile as an investor is. You know, I think if
• 0:07
  you are an endowment or you are a mutual fund, it's trying to find
• 0:14
  or trying to work out whether by diversifying, by diversifying geographically, by diversifying
• 0:22
  away from uber megacap. You know, everyone talks about the Big seven,
• 0:26
  but globally it's twenty to thirty stocks that really matter in the entire equity universe.
• 0:32
  You're listening to Carrie. Let'sa's Financial Survival Network where you get valuable information
• 0:37
  you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need
• 0:42
  the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com
• 0:49
  and get your free newsletter in gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever.
• 0:59
  And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
• 1:03
  I'm your host, Carrie Lutts. Well, we love getting newsletter writers on
• 1:07
  the show because newsletter writers, as a lot, and I know a lot
• 1:14
  of them, really have their own unique point of view on things, and
• 1:19
  they really have insight into things that ordinary folks might not have. We just
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  came across one that I want to share with you and it's called Nutstuff nut
• 1:34
  stuff dot co dot UK. William Nutting, you are the proprietor of the
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  site out of the UK, and you have a rich history in the financial
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  sector and then you decided to write about it and here we are. So
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  thank you for coming on. Appreciate it. If anybody has a question for
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  William or myself, shoot me an email kl at carrie lets dot com.
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  So well, like you kind of backed your way into the newsletter writing thing.
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  I think a lot of people start out in the financial sector and wind
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  up writing newsletters. How did you wind up doing this? The Kerry Hi,
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  I'm great to be on the call. I mean, I was a
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  weirdo. I never went to university. I went to school, went to
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  the morning school from the age of seven. I think my parents loved me.
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  But I went to going to school from the age of seven and I
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  ended up in I kind of fell into the financial services industry after leaving the
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  military, and I was naturally I think I graduated towards or gravitated towards equities
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  because it was stories and it's still of reflected real life, and so you
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  know, I sort of I developed a way of understanding how an equity portfolio
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  should somewhat reflect your interests and the things that you think are relevant and interesting
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  in life. And then twenty five years later I'd sold institutional research, which
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  was increased to me, I think, becoming unintelligible, conclusionless perfectly hedged,
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  realistically correct, and to be honest, most of it was utterly useless if
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  it was the restaurant industry, ninety percent of a guests thrown away uneaten if
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  it was the food in the restauran industry. So I kind of basically started
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  writing my own and with the backing of some incredibly loyal institutional clients and some
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  well known people in London who managed money very effective for many years, I
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  launched that stuff. And the whole idea was to really write something not once
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  a week or once a month, but much more than that, like two
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  to three times a week, that connected the real world and the financial world.
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  And it was designed not to have everyone agree with me. It wasn't
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  designed to be consensual. It's designed to make you question, make you think,
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  make you laugh, and make you money or save you money. And
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  when I say, save you money. If you're sitting with someone who manages
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  your money, uh, it's it's It gives you a bunch of tools to
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  say to them, how do you you thought about this? Why are you
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  positioned there? Why are you sitting in the cave at everyone else's city?
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  And why are you not thinking about X, Y Z? And so I'm
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  you know, I try not to offend, but I try to provoke,
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  and I think to provoke intellectual thought, to ask questions what if? What
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  if? What if? It's just an incredibly useful thing to do. And
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  I think it was Nikolai Tangen who on the Norwegian sort of wealth fund.
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  He said, you know, bide him sending the alpha in his experience,
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  came from being contrarian. Well, I'm by nature a contrarian, but I
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  hope I write in kind of with reasonable English comprehension, and I write in
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  a in a in an a legend, in a in an understandable and logical
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  way. I don't. I tend to avoid financial babble speak. Okay,
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  I'll buy that. And yeah, we kind of came about it from different
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  the different sides. I was a lawyer. I like to say I'm America's
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  top recovering it Atorney and you know, I kind of got into this financial
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  thing because I just saw like a lot of garbage out there. So,
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  so your opinion, what is the number one challenge facing investors worldwide in seeking
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  out good returns and hopefully providing for your retirement or for your future. What
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  do you think the biggest challenge is there? I think the biggest challenge,
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  well, it depends entirely on what you're on, what your profile as an
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  investor is. You know, I think if you are an endowment or you
• 5:34
  are a mutual fund, it's trying to find or trying to work out whether
• 5:43
  by diversifying, by diversifying geographically, by diversifying away from uber megacap You know,
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  everyone talks about the Big seven, but globally it's twenty to thirty stocks
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  that really matter in the entire equity universe. Can you versify away from those
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  stocks? If you can, then I think there's a tremendous opportunity in special
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  situations, small cap as a situation. There's an opportunity in crypto and goal,
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  there's opportunities in in uranium and commodities. There's huge opportunities in emerging markets
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  x China. So I think such, I think those are the challenges.
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  The challenges are but unfortunately, a lot of the places that are most exciting
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  and most interesting I described as kind of they're the shop glasses. And the
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  problem is the money management industry. Because it costs as much to manage five
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  hundred million as it does to manage five billion, you end up in a
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  situation whereby everyone really wants to invest in the same buckets. And actually,
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  I think the most exciting area of the market tends to be the shot glasses
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  of market capitalization. And so I think I think the conundrum is being able
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  to have a mandate to diversify into kind of more. What I describe as
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  more isstry place in the market. And you know, maybe there are others
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  out there who are much smarter than me, who can who can who can
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  ascertain you know, a value add on metaverse or a value add on Doo
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  or a value you know. I can try and do that, but I
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  think my time is best, so maybe focusing on other bases. Okay,
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  So what the area of the investment landscape most excites you at this particular moment
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  in time. Well, I think it's the what if on geopolitics. Actually,
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  I think it's I sort of stand back and answer that question by saying
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  that as we go, as we've gone from an era of free money,
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  and in an era of free money, you know, it takes free money
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  economically as negative real rates. That's an environment where you buy lottery tickets.
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  That's was Kathy Wood at arc Stream. Environment. That was technology companies,
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  dog walking apps, that's you know, all the companies we've talked about,
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  you know that that that were growing like a weed. It was eyeballs in
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  the tooth thousands, you know today it was you know, meteoric sales growth.
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  But in reality it was from Amazon downwards, companies that created great products,
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  that had huge growth, but were ultimately probably never going to make any
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  money. And so it was great when money was free because they had access
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  in capital. Right now that money is no longer free, I think we've
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  gone. We've gone to a world if you if you look at kind of
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  mad lost pyramid of needs, you know, all that markeup market capitalization was
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  sitting at the top of the pyramid. It was aspiration and and and and
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  feelings and emotions and such and I think we forgot that, we forgot about
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  the needs we've got, about the really basic needs. You know, egg
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  and old living in a cave. What did they really need? You know,
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  they needed heat, light, food, Well maybe not power, but
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  you know the equivalent of power. And so I describe it as you know,
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  the the the market would reward would a data center company and give it
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  a multiple of twenty or twenty five times sales because it was growing super fast
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  with great customers. And yet they forgot that the data center company was actually
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  plugged into a coal fired plowdstation, you know, or an angle or a
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  gas brand plowds station. And so I think, you know, when I
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  look at where the opportunities lie, I think it's understanding of the world has
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  changed. The world has changed to a wilder positive rail rates. It's only
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  the opposite in Japan. And I think in that environment, companies that are
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  going to be successful are pre castro yielding companies, deep company companies that have
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  repaired themselves, and companies that are ultimately selling stuff that we're all going to
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  need and use increasingly more right. And conversely, those companies at the moment
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  are a tiny bit of the investable universe, and and and investment weights and
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  on. My bet I guess is that you know, along with country specific
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  areas like that Arabia and such like that I think will increase their waiting in
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  the global benchmarks. I think of all of these companies that I'm talking about
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  in these areas that I'm talking about, will will also become increasingly bigger bits
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  of the index. Ah. So, so growth in the years ahead,
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  is that going to be rare real growth or I'm I'm I think completely not.
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  I'm massively excited by the next two billion people that are going to join
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  the global You know, what I'm excited about is that if we have you
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  know, everyone talks about regime change in the in the eastern places. I'm
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  excited by becoming regime change in the West because I think if we end up
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  with regime change in the West, you know, hopefully we can start through
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  embrace common sense in when they comes to investment spending, capital expenditures as a
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  ratio of GDP to go up massively. And so I think, no,
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  I think, I think, you know, the next ten years global GDP
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  will We'll go from one hundred and five one hundred and ten trillion to one
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  hundred and eighty trillion, and I think there will be a trifecta of contribution
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  to that, you know. I think it will be you know, it
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  will be the US, it will be you know, the rest of the
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  world, and it will be you know, China and Japan. And I
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  think those growth drivers are going to be huge and hugely exciting for those that
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  are willing to look and invest where the growth is coming from, you know.
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  And I always say to people that you know, what's exciting for investment
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  and the areas that are exciting for investment perversity, the same sort of places
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  that you would want to send your godson or your god daughter if they asked
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  you about where to go and they year after, you know, between school
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  and university. Not that you really do that in the US, but over
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  here we have the concept of the gap here and you know, i'd be
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  going to some of the more writing part of the world. Yeah, we
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  do that too sometimes. So so you think, so regime change in the
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  West, what does that mean we become more capitalistic unless you know everything's got
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  reliant upon government? Is that what that is? Well? I think if
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  you look at if you look at where we come from and where we've got
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  to today with this era of free money. You know, it's we didn't
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  we never really picked up that, we never fixed up the house where money
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  was free, and so we found ourselves in a situation with you know,
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  all the entitlement, all the deck, you know, declining growth mm hm
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  and and and uh. And it's a fairly dubious forays into trying to wag
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  to wars in foreign places there are finally being seen for what they were and
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  and I think the combination of all those things is coining a longer term weakening
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  of our position in the eyes of the part of the world whose eyes are
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  being opened by the fact that they now are chronology and the will have telephones.
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  And so I think to be I guess the takeaway point is to be
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  really excited and to be really positive. You almost need to take your crop
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  out of the West and go and put yourself into the Stans, for example,
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  or start countries in Africa and Lightningmibia. And I think if you go
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  to some of these dynamic places that have no old people, they have incredible
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  demographics, they have no debt, they have no entitled one, and they're
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  embracing capitalism. I think that's that's what I think is really exciting right now.
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  So you think the worst has had its run in and now it's the
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  rest of the world. Well, I mean I think, yeah, I'm
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  never going to write I'm not going to writ job of the United States.
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  And I think you know that if you put a gun to my head and
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  ask me about you know, what what what what? What's happening in the
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  States, I'd say I think little to know, maybe shallow recession and unwindening
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  excesses that you see and feel in Miami or New York or what have you.
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  But I think core America, no, I think Core America has had
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  you know, huge, huge wage growth, and Core America is, you
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  know, I think, is on fire and will have huge dynamic growth in
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  the next you know, in the next five to ten years. So so
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  no, I don't think all but I but if you think about things politically
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  and the margins in Washington, New York, in London, in Berlin,
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  in Paris, in Madrid especially, I would say to you, yes,
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  I think I think you know the what's happened, you know, what's happened
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  in the last ten to twenty years. You know, we are now being
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  seeing a very big reversal, and you think that's a good thing. Huh,
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  Well, I think it's a wake up call. You know. I
• 15:01
  don't think it's a good thing. But I also don't think that it's a
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  good thing to wish for a decimated Russia. You know, I don't think
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  a good thing to think are a combetative China invading Taiwan, which I just
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  don't buy. You know. I think everyone needs to get on and do
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  business together, and I think hopefully the lessons are progressively being learned. But
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  you know, military invasions, you know, I don't achieve anything positive.
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  All they do is end up with an unacceptable level of death, which is
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  something we should all want to avoid. Yeah, they never go exactly the
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  way you think they're going to go do there, there's always a little surprise,
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  like being welcomed as a liberators right, didn't quite work out that way?
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  Son't always. But when you look at China, Okay, so I
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  think in the UK you have a better understanding and a better perception of what's
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  going on there. But basically from what I view on the my sources is
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  that they're having an economic collapse. But more importantly than that, they're having
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  an infrastructure collapse. I'm sure you're well familiar with tofu dreg projects and they
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  call them rotten tail projects. It looks like basically eighty percent of what they
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  built in the past twenty thirty years is pretty much collapsing. Why have that
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  right? Yes, I think we're all hearing that. I mean, I
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  don't sure I have a view on on the on the sofy stuff specifically,
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  but you know, China is sillic command economy. They the biggest issue I
• 16:44
  think with China is youth on employment. And I do get remarkable that,
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  you know, whether the population is what they say, whether it's one point
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  four billion or one point two billion, I can't. I think. I
• 16:56
  think President g wakes up every day, you know, and he's got only
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  make me more things to worry about, as I say, than invading Taiwan.
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  You know. So China is going through a much slower growth trajectory as
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  you would expect. Yeah, the tree doesn't grow to the sky, right,
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  the treat of growing the sky, and I don't. I don't know
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  that it needs to, you know, I think the demographics are the demographics.
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  I think the growth is the growth. I'm going to leave it to
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  people who spend much full time there than I do to have a new one.
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  Whether whether Chinese property is about to take another leg down. The people
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  I talk to, you know, say that it's you know, it's manageable,
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  and I guess it's like everything I look at. You look at the
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  fundamentals of how bad things are, and then you say to yourself, what's
• 17:41
  the market pricing? And what I try to do is I try to look
• 17:44
  at the places that are priced for perfection and the places that are priced,
• 17:48
  you know, priced to ship put it. You know, So this is
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  you know, this is on the wild. This is otherfvigial intelligence versus marijuana
• 17:56
  and cole. Okay, right, if you look at the valuation of coal
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  stocks three years ago, well you looked at the back of marijuana three months
• 18:03
  ago, you'd never have seen that anyone was ever going to consume marijuana again.
• 18:08
  And three years ago you'd never have assumed that we were ever ever going
• 18:11
  to consume cold again. Well, the point is, we know in both
• 18:15
  cases that's not the case. You walk around any Western city, I'm just
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  extraordinary how often I small marijuana in London, oh my god, and't know
• 18:25
  New York. So you know, there's no mark, there's no market capitalization.
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  But you know, so when I look at when I look at these
• 18:33
  interesting areas, you know, and I guess it feeds into China and China's
• 18:36
  coals consumption, and it feeds into the lunacy of of of ESG as some
• 18:41
  aspects of the SG and climate control and you know, an attempt to make
• 18:45
  make sense of the climate. You know, I guess I you know,
• 18:48
  I look at it once again and I say, you know, what's what's
• 18:52
  price for what? And I think that's the that's the as investors, that's
• 18:56
  what really matters. You know, I'm not going to take a I'm not
• 18:59
  taking moral you know, I don't need to take a moral stance on things.
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  You know, I purely look at I look at how the real world
• 19:04
  meets the financial world, and I'm looking for the opportunities. Yeah. So,
• 19:08
  so marijuana's consumption continues to increase. Not necessarily a good thing. Certainly,
• 19:15
  public intoxication has always been you know, looked down upon and discouraged until
• 19:25
  recent times. Now it's it's okay, right now, We're now it's okay.
• 19:30
  To be intoxicated in public and nothing nothing to see here, move along,
• 19:36
  right, I think that's right, and I guess it's it's a part
• 19:38
  of the case of the policy towards you know, enforcing the law, and
• 19:45
  probably the governments have talked to law enforcement and said, you know, what
• 19:48
  is it that we how do we want to spend our limited resources? And
• 19:51
  it's probably not scraping junks out of gutters and worrying about marijuana for personal consumption.
• 19:59
  I couldn't agree with you more. But that doesn't mean yeah, but
• 20:03
  moral issues aside, it's probably growth business. Well, I think we've gotten
• 20:07
  a really good insight, William into who you are and your philosophy towards things,
• 20:15
  and hey, guys should check it out. Just tell us where we
• 20:19
  find you how we subscribe to your newsletter. So you find me at www
• 20:25
  dot nuts self, dot co dot uk. I'm on at Nutstuff Outfit.
• 20:30
  On Twitter, I write, I write a weekend piece on a Monday,
• 20:33
  and I publish my equity portfolio on a Monday, which is just purely designed
• 20:38
  to show you that you know, if it goes down, I feel the
• 20:41
  pain, and if it goes up, might feel the joy. But it
• 20:45
  approves, I it approves. I eat my own cooking. We're a subscription
• 20:48
  business. I charge one thousand pounds a year, which is eighty five pounds
• 20:52
  a month. And the way I look at it is it's investmental quality research
• 20:56
  for a retail price. And you know, if we, if we,
• 21:00
  if we, if we make you questions, think laugh and make money.
• 21:03
  You know, we're cheap at the price for the content that we have.
• 21:07
  So I look forward and we we give a you know, we give a
• 21:10
  month free trial and if you sign up, and I think we have actually
• 21:14
  had a Christmas We have a Christmas at Christmas offer on until until until the
• 21:19
  new year. So I just have a look at the website and we're in
• 21:23
  that. We talk about uranium, we talk about AI, we talk about
• 21:26
  all sorts of interesting relevant areas. But as I say, the key thing
• 21:32
  I do is I talk about the geopolitics. I talk about how it connects
• 21:33
  to the world, and then we're willing to talk about the individual stocks.
• 21:37
  And I think, you know, we we do the end to end,
• 21:40
  all right, appreciate it. They got a question for William myself k l
• 21:44
  at Carrieloods dot com is the place to send it and of course on our
• 21:51
  site, Financial Survival Network dot com. The direct link to William's site is
• 21:55
  in the show notes to this interview. Appreciate you coming on, William.
• 21:57
  It's been a pleasure and we'll look forward to speaking with you again. Carry
• 22:02
  thanks so much. Really, I appreciate your time. Thanks for listening to
• 22:04
  Carrie Lenz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the
• 22:11
  latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,