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The Many Ugly Faces of Climate Breakdown with Professor Bill McGuire · The Smart Cookies podcast

• [zaza]: bill mc guire is a professor merits of geo physical and climate hazards 21 00:00:38,076 --> 00:00:38,097 [bill_mcguire]: m 22 00:00:38,248 --> 00:00:42,916 [zaza]: at university college london a co director of the new weather institute and was a 23 00:00:43,056 --> 00:00:43,637 [zaza]: contributor 24 00:00:43,677 --> 00:00:43,838 [bill_mcguire]: oh 25 00:00:43,858 --> 00:00:45,781 [zaza]: to the twenty two i p c 26 00:00:45,915 --> 00:00:46,077 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 27 00:00:46,021 --> 00:00:46,602 [zaza]: c report 28 00:00:46,381 --> 00:00:46,463 [bill_mcguire]: ah 29 00:00:46,723 --> 00:00:51,751 [zaza]: on climate change and extreme events his books include a guide to the end of 30 00:00:51,791 --> 00:00:57,220 [zaza]: the world everything you never wanted to know and waking the giant how cha drink 31 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:57,701 [zaza]: climate 32 00:00:57,636 --> 00:00:57,657 [bill_mcguire]: m 33 00:00:57,941 --> 00:00:59,063 [zaza]: triggers earthquakes 34 00:00:58,827 --> 00:00:59,029 [bill_mcguire]: oh 35 00:00:59,404 --> 00:00:59,945 [zaza]: to names 36 00:00:59,838 --> 00:00:59,859 [bill_mcguire]: i 37 00:01:00,205 --> 00:01:06,455 [zaza]: and volcanos in his latest book hothouse earth an inhabitants guide which i have right 38 00:01:06,536 --> 00:01:06,676 [zaza]: here 39 00:01:06,867 --> 00:01:07,050 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 40 00:01:06,896 --> 00:01:08,839 [zaza]: professor mcguire explains the sign 41 00:01:08,607 --> 00:01:08,827 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 42 00:01:09,180 --> 00:01:12,626 [zaza]: behind the climate crisis and presents an honest picture 43 00:01:12,376 --> 00:01:12,477 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 44 00:01:12,706 --> 00:01:17,314 [zaza]: of the world we're going to leave to our kids and grand kids professor mc 45 00:01:17,334 --> 00:01:18,876 [zaza]: guire welcome to our trash 46 00:01:20,777 --> 00:01:22,344 [bill_mcguire]: thank you very much thank you for inviting me 47 00:01:22,512 --> 00:01:26,719 [zaza]: i have to admit that your book was a difficult read not because of the 48 00:01:26,759 --> 00:01:29,062 [zaza]: writing style you employ or anything actually 49 00:01:28,887 --> 00:01:29,050 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 50 00:01:29,583 --> 00:01:36,775 [zaza]: quite the opposite you deliver this sobering reality check in a very factual unsentimental way 51 00:01:36,936 --> 00:01:43,306 [zaza]: for every phenomenon associated with climate change whether it's collapsing ice sheets rising sea levels 52 00:01:43,587 --> 00:01:48,315 [zaza]: extreme weather events drot wild fires et cetera you provide an example of what that 53 00:01:48,435 --> 00:01:53,164 [zaza]: means from the earth's past as well as what are proccurrent projections for the future 54 00:01:53,244 --> 00:01:58,914 [zaza]: tell us and the picture is not pretty so at the end i did feel 55 00:01:59,315 --> 00:02:01,017 [zaza]: slightly depressed which you admit 56 00:02:00,897 --> 00:02:01,119 [bill_mcguire]: oh 57 00:02:01,158 --> 00:02:04,583 [zaza]: in the book is kind of a normal response to all this 58 00:02:04,797 --> 00:02:04,817 [bill_mcguire]: m 59 00:02:05,064 --> 00:02:08,109 [zaza]: but let's touch on on that later on because first we have to have a 60 00:02:08,610 --> 00:02:13,779 [zaza]: about terminology at the beginning of the book you write that the often used term 61 00:02:13,736 --> 00:02:13,836 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 62 00:02:13,899 --> 00:02:19,568 [zaza]: global warming has a cosy feel to it that it's far that is far from 63 00:02:19,648 --> 00:02:26,296 [zaza]: justified by the reality you propose alternative terms global heating and climate breakdown instead 64 00:02:26,697 --> 00:02:27,019 [bill_mcguire]: oh 65 00:02:27,157 --> 00:02:28,659 [zaza]: why is the language important 66 00:02:31,017 --> 00:02:35,745 [bill_mcguire]: well that's not just my suggestion people have been using global heating and climate break 67 00:02:35,805 --> 00:02:39,191 [bill_mcguire]: down for a few years now and it's really because of what you said they're 68 00:02:39,291 --> 00:02:43,999 [bill_mcguire]: warming means well things might be tempers might be slightly higher but we can cope 69 00:02:44,019 --> 00:02:47,985 [bill_mcguire]: with out in fact a lot of people especially living in the k or northern 70 00:02:48,086 --> 00:02:48,346 [bill_mcguire]: europe 71 00:02:48,382 --> 00:02:48,484 [zaza]: oh 72 00:02:48,687 --> 00:02:52,192 [bill_mcguire]: will say oh a few more degrees that's lovely don't mind that at all so 73 00:02:52,273 --> 00:02:56,219 [bill_mcguire]: it gives the wrong impression the impression we should be getting is that 74 00:02:56,301 --> 00:02:56,381 [zaza]: ah 75 00:02:56,500 --> 00:03:01,047 [bill_mcguire]: shown by the massive heat waves and wildfire that we've seen right across the planet 76 00:03:01,107 --> 00:03:06,156 [bill_mcguire]: in the last two years and global heating fits with that far better and the 77 00:03:06,196 --> 00:03:08,620 [bill_mcguire]: problem with limate change is a change can 78 00:03:08,694 --> 00:03:08,714 [zaza]: i 79 00:03:08,700 --> 00:03:14,169 [bill_mcguire]: go either way now you could your climate could become nicer and more stable or 80 00:03:14,269 --> 00:03:17,134 [bill_mcguire]: it could go the other way and you know it clearly is going the other 81 00:03:17,174 --> 00:03:22,084 [bill_mcguire]: way breaking down is becoming more erratic is becoming more dangerous so 82 00:03:22,441 --> 00:03:22,522 [zaza]: oh 83 00:03:22,545 --> 00:03:27,274 [bill_mcguire]: those two terms fit perfectly and i'd really like to see warming and change go 84 00:03:27,334 --> 00:03:27,875 [bill_mcguire]: out of the window 85 00:03:28,801 --> 00:03:34,070 [zaza]: during the famed paris climate courts i believe that was eight years ago already we 86 00:03:34,170 --> 00:03:34,651 [zaza]: promised to 87 00:03:34,587 --> 00:03:34,928 [bill_mcguire]: oh 88 00:03:34,711 --> 00:03:36,654 [zaza]: limit the global average temperature 89 00:03:36,455 --> 00:03:36,656 [bill_mcguire]: yes 90 00:03:36,754 --> 00:03:42,724 [zaza]: to one point five degrees celsius right with you in the book is practically impossible 91 00:03:43,285 --> 00:03:48,153 [zaza]: you write that even if long term goals promised at cop twenty six last year 92 00:03:48,374 --> 00:03:52,881 [zaza]: i believe that was in glasgow that if these were met i would still be 93 00:03:53,042 --> 00:03:57,509 [zaza]: at least two degrees now when most of us hear that you touched on it 94 00:03:57,649 --> 00:04:01,596 [zaza]: already but when most of us hear that we kind of think oh that's not 95 00:04:01,636 --> 00:04:03,719 [zaza]: too bad what's all the fuss about you know for example 96 00:04:03,807 --> 00:04:04,617 [bill_mcguire]: oh 97 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:05,202 [zaza]: if i go out for a walk 98 00:04:06,117 --> 00:04:06,137 [bill_mcguire]: m 99 00:04:06,163 --> 00:04:07,786 [zaza]: in fifteen degree weather and it 100 00:04:07,818 --> 00:04:08,547 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 101 00:04:07,846 --> 00:04:10,310 [zaza]: suddenly rises to seventeen degrees i probably 102 00:04:10,227 --> 00:04:10,488 [bill_mcguire]: oh 103 00:04:10,350 --> 00:04:14,297 [zaza]: won't even notice it right so could you please explain why a rise of the 104 00:04:14,357 --> 00:04:19,945 [zaza]: global average temper cure for two degrees celsius isn't innocent at all and why would 105 00:04:20,005 --> 00:04:22,569 [zaza]: it what would it actually mean for a planet 106 00:04:24,698 --> 00:04:28,965 [bill_mcguire]: well the key where there is average isn't it i mean two degrees doesn't as 107 00:04:29,005 --> 00:04:31,790 [bill_mcguire]: you say sound like very much it sounds quite nice in fact if you're in 108 00:04:31,850 --> 00:04:32,111 [bill_mcguire]: a cold 109 00:04:32,121 --> 00:04:32,161 [zaza]: i 110 00:04:32,151 --> 00:04:32,471 [bill_mcguire]: country 111 00:04:32,202 --> 00:04:33,066 [zaza]: mean i'm in berlin 112 00:04:33,052 --> 00:04:33,212 [bill_mcguire]: but 113 00:04:33,106 --> 00:04:33,628 [zaza]: so i agree 114 00:04:35,576 --> 00:04:40,549 [bill_mcguire]: right and then the u k here as well but the you average you take 115 00:04:40,629 --> 00:04:44,395 [bill_mcguire]: a look at what the temperures are doing across the planet the oceans are warming 116 00:04:44,476 --> 00:04:48,422 [bill_mcguire]: up more slowly than the land so land temperatures are already above one and a 117 00:04:48,442 --> 00:04:53,751 [bill_mcguire]: half degrees s temperaturized since print real times but the critical area is the poles 118 00:04:54,332 --> 00:04:58,940 [bill_mcguire]: at the poles warming or heating as should say is occurring four to five times 119 00:04:59,020 --> 00:04:59,180 [bill_mcguire]: more 120 00:04:59,105 --> 00:04:59,188 [zaza]: ah 121 00:04:59,561 --> 00:05:05,250 [bill_mcguire]: more rapidly than the global average of course poles where all the ice is so 122 00:05:05,365 --> 00:05:05,386 [zaza]: i 123 00:05:05,370 --> 00:05:09,417 [bill_mcguire]: we lose that ice we see big changes in sea level we also change the 124 00:05:09,477 --> 00:05:10,379 [bill_mcguire]: reflectivity the 125 00:05:10,500 --> 00:05:11,430 [zaza]: yeah 126 00:05:10,619 --> 00:05:12,282 [bill_mcguire]: bite of the earth so the earth 127 00:05:12,344 --> 00:05:12,467 [zaza]: oh 128 00:05:12,362 --> 00:05:17,268 [bill_mcguire]: absorbs more heat instead of allowing more we reflected out into space so you know 129 00:05:17,328 --> 00:05:22,092 [bill_mcguire]: that is the worst possible news for us so that little temperature rise people must 130 00:05:22,273 --> 00:05:26,256 [bill_mcguire]: recognize that that's an average and it's not the same everywhere by any means 131 00:05:27,231 --> 00:05:30,438 [zaza]: so which other places would be affected the worst i read recently 132 00:05:30,237 --> 00:05:30,927 [bill_mcguire]: my 133 00:05:30,498 --> 00:05:31,020 [zaza]: that europe 134 00:05:30,987 --> 00:05:31,229 [bill_mcguire]: oh 135 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:34,608 [zaza]: is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the planet is that true 136 00:05:36,652 --> 00:05:36,672 [zaza]: i 137 00:05:37,157 --> 00:05:42,546 [bill_mcguire]: um most well there's a lot of discussion about this because people who still think 138 00:05:42,707 --> 00:05:47,034 [bill_mcguire]: that climate breakdown isn't happening say hang on they've been reports saying the united states 139 00:05:47,114 --> 00:05:50,739 [bill_mcguire]: is heating up twice as quickly you're to go twice as quickly as lots of 140 00:05:50,779 --> 00:05:53,622 [bill_mcguire]: other places are how can that be well the reason is that the 141 00:05:53,700 --> 00:05:53,924 [zaza]: oh 142 00:05:53,742 --> 00:05:59,926 [bill_mcguire]: oceans are eating up far more slowly because they need to absorb a massive amount 143 00:06:00,006 --> 00:06:04,238 [bill_mcguire]: of heat for the temperature to rise even a tiny little bit so yes europe 144 00:06:04,318 --> 00:06:08,562 [bill_mcguire]: is warming at twice the average rate so are many other land mass areas on 145 00:06:08,622 --> 00:06:11,926 [bill_mcguire]: the planet and that's luckily for us due to the oceans 146 00:06:13,151 --> 00:06:18,019 [zaza]: besides the rise of the global temper average temperatures there's also something called the tipping 147 00:06:18,119 --> 00:06:18,400 [zaza]: points 148 00:06:18,368 --> 00:06:18,470 [bill_mcguire]: is 149 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:22,286 [zaza]: in the climate system right and of course the chance of crossing 150 00:06:22,047 --> 00:06:22,274 [bill_mcguire]: oh 151 00:06:22,567 --> 00:06:23,107 [zaza]: any of these 152 00:06:22,917 --> 00:06:23,138 [bill_mcguire]: oh 153 00:06:23,208 --> 00:06:28,276 [zaza]: rises along with the temperatures some of the tipping points are the amazon forest die 154 00:06:28,356 --> 00:06:33,785 [zaza]: of the greenland ice sheet disintegration the permafrosttaw and unfortunately 155 00:06:33,390 --> 00:06:33,431 [bill_mcguire]: a 156 00:06:34,306 --> 00:06:38,513 [zaza]: the list goes on and on i think there's about like fifteen or sixteen of 157 00:06:38,573 --> 00:06:44,082 [zaza]: them the really scary part is that once breached they are irreversible and if i 158 00:06:44,203 --> 00:06:49,631 [zaza]: understood it correctly they can produce a dominal effect during the rest of them which 159 00:06:49,992 --> 00:06:54,178 [zaza]: one of these are you currently worried about the most where are we closest right 160 00:06:54,218 --> 00:06:54,359 [zaza]: now 161 00:06:56,347 --> 00:07:00,815 [bill_mcguire]: well there's there's a few tipping points which look as they will probably tip at 162 00:07:01,035 --> 00:07:06,144 [bill_mcguire]: one and a half degrees global over tempted write or even slightly below that so 163 00:07:06,224 --> 00:07:10,511 [bill_mcguire]: you know they could have tipped already we will only know after the event and 164 00:07:10,551 --> 00:07:14,538 [bill_mcguire]: those include the collapse of the green and ice ship which would ultimately result in 165 00:07:14,598 --> 00:07:14,878 [bill_mcguire]: a seven 166 00:07:14,893 --> 00:07:15,450 [zaza]: right 167 00:07:14,938 --> 00:07:20,989 [bill_mcguire]: meter sea level rise collapse to the west antarctic uyhiwasust other five meters um rapid 168 00:07:21,109 --> 00:07:24,575 [bill_mcguire]: thawing of high altitude latitude permafrost 169 00:07:24,450 --> 00:07:27,780 [zaza]: yeah 170 00:07:25,336 --> 00:07:30,585 [bill_mcguire]: and shut down or dramatic slow down of the gulf stream and sercuated currents they 171 00:07:30,645 --> 00:07:35,256 [bill_mcguire]: can all occur about now or maybe just a few points of one degree centigrade 172 00:07:35,296 --> 00:07:38,385 [bill_mcguire]: higher so they're all big big concerns at the moment 173 00:07:38,901 --> 00:07:44,190 [zaza]: okay but collapse has that immediate ring to it right like when would we realize 174 00:07:44,230 --> 00:07:47,375 [zaza]: that this has happened it probably wouldn't be like that movie the day after tomorrow 175 00:07:47,596 --> 00:07:48,938 [zaza]: when a sudden ice change 176 00:07:48,777 --> 00:07:49,040 [bill_mcguire]: oh 177 00:07:48,978 --> 00:07:51,346 [zaza]: arrives i think you ment that one in the book as well right 178 00:07:53,259 --> 00:07:55,503 [bill_mcguire]: yeah a day after tomorrow it starts off very well 179 00:07:55,511 --> 00:07:55,592 [zaza]: ah 180 00:07:55,563 --> 00:07:57,306 [bill_mcguire]: rooted in science but then it goes completely 181 00:07:57,070 --> 00:07:57,210 [zaza]: oh 182 00:07:57,326 --> 00:08:01,192 [bill_mcguire]: off the rails after the first half an hour of the film no it wouldn't 183 00:08:01,232 --> 00:08:05,059 [bill_mcguire]: be like that but increasingly it look if sea level is going to be rising 184 00:08:05,119 --> 00:08:10,207 [bill_mcguire]: much faster than originally thought in the i p c c reports a number of 185 00:08:10,288 --> 00:08:14,234 [bill_mcguire]: papers now suggested we could see two meters by the end of the century which 186 00:08:14,274 --> 00:08:16,097 [bill_mcguire]: is only eight years away and that 187 00:08:16,912 --> 00:08:16,953 [zaza]: a 188 00:08:17,439 --> 00:08:22,268 [bill_mcguire]: and that fits with observations of how quickly the ice is melting and how quickly 189 00:08:22,308 --> 00:08:23,550 [bill_mcguire]: the melt is accelerating 190 00:08:23,462 --> 00:08:24,360 [zaza]: oh 191 00:08:23,970 --> 00:08:25,473 [bill_mcguire]: and also how quickly sea level 192 00:08:25,940 --> 00:08:26,021 [zaza]: ah 193 00:08:26,074 --> 00:08:30,147 [bill_mcguire]: sealebls are actually going up there now going up half a centimeter a year as 194 00:08:30,227 --> 00:08:33,814 [bill_mcguire]: about thirty years ago it was a few millimeters so it could be doubling every 195 00:08:33,874 --> 00:08:39,232 [bill_mcguire]: twenty years so the collapse won't be overnight of either of these ice sheets but 196 00:08:39,292 --> 00:08:44,309 [bill_mcguire]: it will be increasingly rapid over the next in coming decades and in the next 197 00:08:44,369 --> 00:08:44,732 [bill_mcguire]: century 198 00:08:45,031 --> 00:08:50,330 [zaza]: why are these projections worsening every year it seems that 199 00:08:50,667 --> 00:08:51,089 [bill_mcguire]: oh 200 00:08:50,711 --> 00:08:54,694 [zaza]: you know the projections were much better only a couple of years ago and now 201 00:08:54,774 --> 00:08:57,657 [zaza]: they're suddenly like much worse double of what they were 202 00:08:57,687 --> 00:08:58,128 [bill_mcguire]: oh 203 00:08:57,717 --> 00:08:59,659 [zaza]: for a lot of these parameters 204 00:08:59,312 --> 00:09:05,062 [bill_mcguire]: h h there's quite a simple reason for that and that's the i b c 205 00:09:05,262 --> 00:09:11,893 [bill_mcguire]: c reports are conservative because they have representatives of every country on the planet looking 206 00:09:11,973 --> 00:09:15,880 [bill_mcguire]: at every sentence bjecting to certain sentence is toning down this out and the other 207 00:09:16,321 --> 00:09:21,810 [bill_mcguire]: united states saudi arabia russia whoever you like so it's inevitably going to be conservative 208 00:09:21,991 --> 00:09:22,071 [zaza]: so 209 00:09:22,251 --> 00:09:25,356 [bill_mcguire]: and it's also a consensus space report it tends 210 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:25,361 [zaza]: oh 211 00:09:25,436 --> 00:09:29,423 [bill_mcguire]: to ignore or play down things like typing points on their impact because 212 00:09:29,262 --> 00:09:29,282 [zaza]: i 213 00:09:29,563 --> 00:09:33,049 [bill_mcguire]: they say there wasn't enough information or there isn't enough information so 214 00:09:33,420 --> 00:09:33,620 [zaza]: yeah 215 00:09:33,790 --> 00:09:39,199 [bill_mcguire]: that's why it's been shown actually by research that clay its scientists as a group 216 00:09:39,680 --> 00:09:40,701 [bill_mcguire]: tend to play down 217 00:09:41,550 --> 00:09:41,752 [zaza]: yes 218 00:09:41,943 --> 00:09:47,232 [bill_mcguire]: the worst factors in terms of looking ahead if they say this is going to 219 00:09:47,252 --> 00:09:50,858 [bill_mcguire]: happen by a certain date that happens sooner they say this is going to happen 220 00:09:52,221 --> 00:09:52,561 [bill_mcguire]: and it's going 221 00:09:52,500 --> 00:09:54,660 [zaza]: yeah 222 00:09:52,601 --> 00:09:55,827 [bill_mcguire]: to be bad it ends up being even worse so that you know there is 223 00:09:55,887 --> 00:09:58,631 [bill_mcguire]: a lot of under playing and has been a lot of under playing of the 224 00:09:58,691 --> 00:10:01,015 [bill_mcguire]: threat going back many decades 225 00:10:01,630 --> 00:10:07,740 [zaza]: okay as we speak cop twenty seven or the united nations climate change conference is 226 00:10:07,801 --> 00:10:08,983 [zaza]: happening in carmel shake 227 00:10:09,027 --> 00:10:09,047 [bill_mcguire]: m 228 00:10:10,064 --> 00:10:15,133 [zaza]: right now and there's already being worrying reports about climate activists being detained 229 00:10:14,987 --> 00:10:15,007 [bill_mcguire]: i 230 00:10:15,193 --> 00:10:19,620 [zaza]: while oil and gas lobbyists number in the hundreds and are treated 231 00:10:19,407 --> 00:10:19,708 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 232 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:24,909 [zaza]: like royalty no surprise es there how is it looking to you so far and 233 00:10:25,089 --> 00:10:30,266 [zaza]: what would what would need to happen so we could say that actual progress was 234 00:10:30,346 --> 00:10:30,888 [zaza]: being made 235 00:10:33,317 --> 00:10:36,202 [bill_mcguire]: well it's i don't expect anything of twenty 236 00:10:36,132 --> 00:10:36,312 [zaza]: okay 237 00:10:36,282 --> 00:10:36,462 [bill_mcguire]: seven 238 00:10:36,372 --> 00:10:36,553 [zaza]: that's 239 00:10:36,543 --> 00:10:36,583 [bill_mcguire]: i 240 00:10:36,593 --> 00:10:36,893 [zaza]: gloomy 241 00:10:36,603 --> 00:10:37,484 [bill_mcguire]: was at glasgow last 242 00:10:37,354 --> 00:10:37,695 [zaza]: all right 243 00:10:37,544 --> 00:10:37,725 [bill_mcguire]: year 244 00:10:38,977 --> 00:10:39,217 [zaza]: okay 245 00:10:39,127 --> 00:10:39,267 [bill_mcguire]: now 246 00:10:39,398 --> 00:10:39,818 [zaza]: honestly 247 00:10:39,928 --> 00:10:45,117 [bill_mcguire]: i didn't expect anything i didn't expect anything in glasgow either and i did get 248 00:10:45,177 --> 00:10:49,244 [bill_mcguire]: anything promises and pledges but nothing concrete and that seems to be all that comes 249 00:10:49,324 --> 00:10:55,695 [bill_mcguire]: out of these events so far at twenty seven we've seen a number of the 250 00:10:55,735 --> 00:11:02,011 [bill_mcguire]: big for us it countries like brazil and in denia 251 00:11:02,323 --> 00:11:02,405 [zaza]: no 252 00:11:02,927 --> 00:11:09,223 [bill_mcguire]: and others come together in an alliance to do something about deforestation but it's incredibly 253 00:11:09,303 --> 00:11:11,406 [bill_mcguire]: vague are you still there 254 00:11:11,380 --> 00:11:11,522 [zaza]: yes 255 00:11:11,446 --> 00:11:11,648 [bill_mcguire]: by the 256 00:11:11,644 --> 00:11:11,664 [zaza]: i 257 00:11:11,689 --> 00:11:11,769 [bill_mcguire]: way 258 00:11:11,766 --> 00:11:11,827 [zaza]: am 259 00:11:13,707 --> 00:11:14,349 [bill_mcguire]: i can't see you 260 00:11:14,300 --> 00:11:14,560 [zaza]: okay 261 00:11:15,010 --> 00:11:15,251 [bill_mcguire]: all of 262 00:11:15,261 --> 00:11:15,381 [zaza]: it's 263 00:11:15,291 --> 00:11:15,632 [bill_mcguire]: a sudden 264 00:11:15,441 --> 00:11:17,103 [zaza]: still recording but i'm still here 265 00:11:17,807 --> 00:11:20,399 [bill_mcguire]: yeah okay good i'll start that bit 266 00:11:20,427 --> 00:11:20,507 [zaza]: all 267 00:11:20,460 --> 00:11:20,660 [bill_mcguire]: again 268 00:11:20,547 --> 00:11:20,707 [zaza]: right 269 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:20,840 [bill_mcguire]: then 270 00:11:20,767 --> 00:11:21,889 [zaza]: please do yeah 271 00:11:21,862 --> 00:11:21,942 [bill_mcguire]: so 272 00:11:23,791 --> 00:11:23,892 [zaza]: so 273 00:11:24,266 --> 00:11:28,753 [bill_mcguire]: so far at twenty seven there hasn't been a huge amount to shout about some 274 00:11:28,813 --> 00:11:31,678 [bill_mcguire]: of the the heavily forest country countries 275 00:11:31,380 --> 00:11:32,370 [zaza]: yeah 276 00:11:31,718 --> 00:11:32,299 [bill_mcguire]: like brazil 277 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:32,982 [zaza]: oh 278 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:36,186 [bill_mcguire]: and the congo and in the niche have come together to form an alliance to 279 00:11:36,847 --> 00:11:41,615 [bill_mcguire]: look at stopping or at least rolling back on de forest station but there are 280 00:11:41,655 --> 00:11:44,740 [bill_mcguire]: no commitments thereto um other 281 00:11:44,931 --> 00:11:45,011 [zaza]: ah 282 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,807 [bill_mcguire]: things that have come out of it are that people are still talking about one 283 00:11:48,827 --> 00:11:54,857 [bill_mcguire]: and a half degrees s global average temperature rise as something that's attainable dis it 284 00:11:54,917 --> 00:11:58,142 [bill_mcguire]: the fact that for that to happen we need admissions to fall by forty five 285 00:11:58,202 --> 00:12:03,491 [bill_mcguire]: per cent in about eighty five months by twenty thirty i can't see any practical 286 00:12:03,591 --> 00:12:07,999 [bill_mcguire]: way that could possibly happen but people are still going about it and what this 287 00:12:08,079 --> 00:12:12,767 [bill_mcguire]: does it allows world leaders and oil companies to say don't worry there's plenty of 288 00:12:12,807 --> 00:12:15,792 [bill_mcguire]: time yet we could still keep under one and a half degrees and that just 289 00:12:15,832 --> 00:12:21,020 [bill_mcguire]: gives them an excuse or fig you like to carry pumping out fossil fuels or 290 00:12:21,100 --> 00:12:25,286 [bill_mcguire]: doing nothing to cut emissions so it's pretty gloomy so far 291 00:12:25,450 --> 00:12:29,994 [zaza]: okay but what would need to happen for you to say that actual progress was 292 00:12:30,074 --> 00:12:34,198 [zaza]: made at the conference what sort of pledges or mechanisms would have to be in 293 00:12:34,258 --> 00:12:35,139 [zaza]: place or agreed 294 00:12:35,206 --> 00:12:35,307 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 295 00:12:35,219 --> 00:12:35,439 [zaza]: upon 296 00:12:37,727 --> 00:12:44,257 [bill_mcguire]: well i'd want to see mechanism which showed that if they the pledges that were 297 00:12:44,297 --> 00:12:49,546 [bill_mcguire]: agreed at coptntyseven actually happened ed missions would fall by at least forty five percent 298 00:12:49,827 --> 00:12:53,851 [bill_mcguire]: seven and a bit years they have to do that now there's no more well 299 00:12:53,891 --> 00:12:56,474 [bill_mcguire]: when i said there's no more time left i don't think there's any time left 300 00:12:56,555 --> 00:13:01,893 [bill_mcguire]: now that's that's all that would do it and one way of doing that would 301 00:13:01,953 --> 00:13:08,423 [bill_mcguire]: be to keep all fossil fuels in the ground in other words cutting subsidies globally 302 00:13:08,484 --> 00:13:12,490 [bill_mcguire]: the fossil fuel companies which are in the trill and so every year stopping insurance 303 00:13:12,550 --> 00:13:18,420 [bill_mcguire]: company is insuring the facilities stopping banks lending and having a big tax at the 304 00:13:18,460 --> 00:13:23,428 [bill_mcguire]: well head and the mine entrance just to keep the carbon where it is because 305 00:13:23,468 --> 00:13:26,693 [bill_mcguire]: without that i don't see how we could make much progress at all but then 306 00:13:26,753 --> 00:13:28,296 [bill_mcguire]: again i don't see that happening either 307 00:13:28,740 --> 00:13:32,825 [zaza]: can you walk us through what is going to happen if we continue to do 308 00:13:32,925 --> 00:13:34,807 [zaza]: business as usual as it looks 309 00:13:34,778 --> 00:13:34,818 [bill_mcguire]: m 310 00:13:34,867 --> 00:13:36,869 [zaza]: like right now in the upcoming decades 311 00:13:39,897 --> 00:13:45,246 [bill_mcguire]: well i suppose the thing that's hitting home most is not the slow ram ramping 312 00:13:45,326 --> 00:13:48,411 [bill_mcguire]: up of the global average temperature is the extreme weather that 313 00:13:48,470 --> 00:13:48,570 [zaza]: ah 314 00:13:48,471 --> 00:13:51,516 [bill_mcguire]: is caused by stable climate starting to break down 315 00:13:51,711 --> 00:13:51,791 [zaza]: ah 316 00:13:52,257 --> 00:13:57,646 [bill_mcguire]: and that's going to become much much more obvious in the decades ahead not only 317 00:13:57,907 --> 00:14:03,216 [bill_mcguire]: the direct physical impacts but what i call the threats multiplied effects on things that 318 00:14:03,256 --> 00:14:09,466 [bill_mcguire]: we already things like war civil unrest famine health et cetera is the impact of 319 00:14:09,546 --> 00:14:14,695 [bill_mcguire]: climate breakdown on those that's going to become massively important in the decades ahead and 320 00:14:14,755 --> 00:14:20,705 [bill_mcguire]: in the book i just high lit one statistic from the chatte house policy institute 321 00:14:20,805 --> 00:14:24,291 [bill_mcguire]: in the u k which was published last year and that is that by twenty 322 00:14:24,391 --> 00:14:29,700 [bill_mcguire]: fifty the world will need fifty percent more food but crop yields could be done 323 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,787 [bill_mcguire]: by as much as thirty per cent so that translates 324 00:14:32,651 --> 00:14:32,793 [zaza]: oh 325 00:14:32,867 --> 00:14:38,247 [bill_mcguire]: into a halving of food for everyone on the planet on average obviously it won't 326 00:14:38,307 --> 00:14:42,973 [bill_mcguire]: work out like that because he majority world countries will suffer far more but nobody 327 00:14:43,013 --> 00:14:48,851 [bill_mcguire]: will be immune to such a massive reduction in food will be widespread famine civil 328 00:14:48,931 --> 00:14:51,115 [bill_mcguire]: strife war in the developed 329 00:14:50,961 --> 00:14:50,982 [zaza]: i 330 00:14:51,156 --> 00:14:51,917 [bill_mcguire]: countries as well as 331 00:14:51,942 --> 00:14:51,962 [zaza]: i 332 00:14:51,957 --> 00:14:56,445 [bill_mcguire]: people just scrabble to get enough food to eat that's twenty eight years away 333 00:14:58,083 --> 00:15:01,148 [zaza]: and we're already having a taste of that these days to be honest right 334 00:15:02,017 --> 00:15:02,159 [bill_mcguire]: yep 335 00:15:02,149 --> 00:15:02,931 [zaza]: i mean wild 336 00:15:02,927 --> 00:15:03,068 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 337 00:15:03,011 --> 00:15:10,343 [zaza]: fires in europe crazy temperatures we talked about the end we briefly and i'm in 338 00:15:10,403 --> 00:15:12,567 [zaza]: germany right now and i've been 339 00:15:12,567 --> 00:15:15,516 [bill_mcguire]: yah 340 00:15:12,607 --> 00:15:18,216 [zaza]: living here for ten years and i can't remember when november was this warm never 341 00:15:18,517 --> 00:15:23,225 [zaza]: i mean it's it's in vina where i'm originally from i think we recorded the 342 00:15:23,305 --> 00:15:29,615 [zaza]: warmest november ever since we began recording of twenty six degrees recently so 343 00:15:29,648 --> 00:15:29,729 [bill_mcguire]: ah 344 00:15:30,837 --> 00:15:36,717 [zaza]: yeah it's it feels like we're somehow already there it used to feel just a 345 00:15:36,777 --> 00:15:42,586 [zaza]: decade ago that we still have kind of loads of time but now it just 346 00:15:42,707 --> 00:15:47,087 [zaza]: feels like even to an average person and that the time is just gone 347 00:15:49,427 --> 00:15:53,474 [bill_mcguire]: well the last i mean in just the last three or four years extreme weather 348 00:15:53,554 --> 00:15:58,382 [bill_mcguire]: has absolutely exploded right across the planet because even if you go back five years 349 00:15:58,542 --> 00:16:02,589 [bill_mcguire]: as you say that you know we had unusual as nothing like it is at 350 00:16:02,629 --> 00:16:03,030 [bill_mcguire]: the moment 351 00:16:02,970 --> 00:16:04,500 [zaza]: yeah 352 00:16:03,711 --> 00:16:08,419 [bill_mcguire]: i mean every year now you can expect european temperature some attempts to be fortified 353 00:16:08,479 --> 00:16:12,405 [bill_mcguire]: degrees or even considerably higher in the u now 354 00:16:12,330 --> 00:16:12,571 [zaza]: oh 355 00:16:12,966 --> 00:16:17,374 [bill_mcguire]: show after four over forty degrees this summer nothing like that's ever happened here before 356 00:16:17,874 --> 00:16:24,265 [bill_mcguire]: and the same right across the planet canada north america south america australia everywhere is 357 00:16:24,345 --> 00:16:26,549 [bill_mcguire]: seeing this and unless you're a complete 358 00:16:26,490 --> 00:16:26,731 [zaza]: yeah 359 00:16:26,729 --> 00:16:31,257 [bill_mcguire]: idiot you cannot avoid seeing what's happening around you just people just need to look 360 00:16:31,317 --> 00:16:34,582 [bill_mcguire]: around them and they and realize that this is a different world 361 00:16:34,601 --> 00:16:35,790 [zaza]: eh 362 00:16:35,003 --> 00:16:36,706 [bill_mcguire]: from the world that their grandparents lived in 363 00:16:36,670 --> 00:16:41,498 [zaza]: well it seems like there's a couple of these still lurking around anyway as most 364 00:16:41,578 --> 00:16:41,638 [zaza]: of 365 00:16:41,638 --> 00:16:41,799 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 366 00:16:41,698 --> 00:16:47,288 [zaza]: our listeners probably know by now among other things i'm an encourageable hypohondri 367 00:16:46,967 --> 00:16:47,048 [bill_mcguire]: oh 368 00:16:47,388 --> 00:16:51,675 [zaza]: aco the chapter your book about the effects of climate breakdown 369 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:52,527 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 370 00:16:51,755 --> 00:16:56,444 [zaza]: on human health kind of rattled me the most to be honest also because i 371 00:16:56,564 --> 00:17:02,945 [zaza]: honestly thought that at least in this department hotter and wetter weather might actually be 372 00:17:03,487 --> 00:17:04,609 [zaza]: you know at least neutral 373 00:17:04,617 --> 00:17:05,787 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 374 00:17:05,150 --> 00:17:09,218 [zaza]: for our well being it turns out that's not the case could you explain why 375 00:17:11,197 --> 00:17:15,564 [bill_mcguire]: well hotter and weather hotter and wetter weather is perfect for mosquitos for example 376 00:17:15,402 --> 00:17:15,624 [zaza]: great 377 00:17:16,385 --> 00:17:16,706 [bill_mcguire]: and lots 378 00:17:16,770 --> 00:17:20,460 [zaza]: yeah 379 00:17:16,786 --> 00:17:21,915 [bill_mcguire]: of other lots of other nasty tropical diseases which are already getting into 380 00:17:21,990 --> 00:17:22,273 [zaza]: oh 381 00:17:22,055 --> 00:17:27,484 [bill_mcguire]: europe things like danny fever and west not virus all these sorts of things are 382 00:17:27,564 --> 00:17:34,035 [bill_mcguire]: spreading out of their original locations because they're finding places where they can survive over 383 00:17:34,075 --> 00:17:38,832 [bill_mcguire]: the winter therefore they can breathe and they can build colonies there i mean it's 384 00:17:38,953 --> 00:17:39,194 [bill_mcguire]: only 385 00:17:39,570 --> 00:17:39,711 [zaza]: yeah 386 00:17:40,137 --> 00:17:43,663 [bill_mcguire]: only after the war was malaria got rid of in the u k and i 387 00:17:43,683 --> 00:17:45,426 [bill_mcguire]: think it was in the nineteen seventies in italy 388 00:17:45,570 --> 00:17:45,812 [zaza]: oh 389 00:17:45,827 --> 00:17:49,213 [bill_mcguire]: so it's not that long ago and it won't be long till these diseases are 390 00:17:49,253 --> 00:17:50,775 [bill_mcguire]: all working their way back up there again 391 00:17:51,911 --> 00:17:56,539 [zaza]: um this question might be more appropriate for a psychologist 392 00:17:56,217 --> 00:17:56,501 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 393 00:17:56,619 --> 00:17:57,941 [zaza]: but you've been in this 394 00:17:58,017 --> 00:17:58,237 [bill_mcguire]: oh 395 00:17:58,021 --> 00:18:01,547 [zaza]: fire for a long time and at the highest levels as well when it comes 396 00:18:01,607 --> 00:18:03,030 [zaza]: to solutions why you 397 00:18:03,117 --> 00:18:03,379 [bill_mcguire]: oh 398 00:18:03,150 --> 00:18:05,814 [zaza]: think it's easier for us to resort to magical 399 00:18:05,517 --> 00:18:05,760 [bill_mcguire]: oh 400 00:18:05,915 --> 00:18:11,264 [zaza]: thinking you know rather than stop what we're doing when i have conversations with people 401 00:18:11,905 --> 00:18:13,167 [zaza]: i hear the argument about 402 00:18:13,047 --> 00:18:13,330 [bill_mcguire]: oh 403 00:18:13,507 --> 00:18:14,769 [zaza]: human ingenuity 404 00:18:14,817 --> 00:18:14,837 [bill_mcguire]: m 405 00:18:14,930 --> 00:18:16,432 [zaza]: a lot you know and it seems 406 00:18:16,227 --> 00:18:17,012 [bill_mcguire]: uh 407 00:18:16,472 --> 00:18:18,736 [zaza]: that the closer to the brink we 408 00:18:18,906 --> 00:18:18,927 [bill_mcguire]: h 409 00:18:18,916 --> 00:18:25,067 [zaza]: come the more people cling on to some some type of a cheap hollywood scenario 410 00:18:25,287 --> 00:18:30,275 [zaza]: where a genius scientist or a billion there even appears with an out of the 411 00:18:30,335 --> 00:18:35,043 [zaza]: box idea and pulls us away from the precipice of course at the very last 412 00:18:35,127 --> 00:18:36,537 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 413 00:18:35,524 --> 00:18:39,433 [zaza]: second why is it so hard for us to admit that we have to change 414 00:18:39,554 --> 00:18:41,203 [zaza]: and we have to change now 415 00:18:43,408 --> 00:18:47,294 [bill_mcguire]: well people don't want to give up their life styles in the developed countries certainly 416 00:18:47,475 --> 00:18:49,758 [bill_mcguire]: and they they still think that 417 00:18:49,633 --> 00:18:49,695 [zaza]: or 418 00:18:50,139 --> 00:18:54,406 [bill_mcguire]: tomorrow is going to be the same as today they don't have they can't imagine 419 00:18:55,387 --> 00:19:00,773 [bill_mcguire]: what sort of future we'd be facing with real severe cloid breakdown so they cling 420 00:19:00,853 --> 00:19:06,420 [bill_mcguire]: to the cling to the past if you like the whole idea that you're talking 421 00:19:06,460 --> 00:19:11,909 [bill_mcguire]: about go engineering is a is the broad term is a massive distraction from reducing 422 00:19:11,949 --> 00:19:12,330 [bill_mcguire]: emissions 423 00:19:12,060 --> 00:19:12,240 [zaza]: yeah 424 00:19:12,390 --> 00:19:16,477 [bill_mcguire]: because if world leaders think oh there's a technic fix sitting in the background we 425 00:19:16,557 --> 00:19:20,844 [bill_mcguire]: can use then they're not going to bother too much about reducing emissions so the 426 00:19:20,904 --> 00:19:26,494 [bill_mcguire]: very possibility that we can use technology to well they call it a solution to 427 00:19:26,574 --> 00:19:31,382 [bill_mcguire]: the climate breakdown but in fact it's just tackling the symptoms but the very possible 428 00:19:31,422 --> 00:19:33,025 [bill_mcguire]: existence of that is a real problem 429 00:19:34,150 --> 00:19:39,857 [zaza]: in practical terms what do you think how would we switch to or how would 430 00:19:39,897 --> 00:19:41,299 [zaza]: we cut emissions right 431 00:19:41,127 --> 00:19:41,147 [bill_mcguire]: m 432 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,693 [zaza]: now what needs to happen and what do we need to 433 00:19:44,655 --> 00:19:44,877 [bill_mcguire]: must 434 00:19:44,733 --> 00:19:46,237 [zaza]: do like starting today let's say 435 00:19:46,350 --> 00:19:52,554 [bill_mcguire]: hm well as i said earlier that we when once carbon has got out of 436 00:19:52,594 --> 00:19:58,083 [bill_mcguire]: the ground and into the into society and the economy it's incredibly difficult to keep 437 00:19:58,204 --> 00:20:03,112 [bill_mcguire]: track of and to reduce so the best way to do it is by stopping 438 00:20:03,192 --> 00:20:06,638 [bill_mcguire]: carbon coming out of the ground so you know you only have a limited number 439 00:20:06,698 --> 00:20:10,524 [bill_mcguire]: of well heads where oil and gas comes out and mine entrances where coal comes 440 00:20:10,604 --> 00:20:15,913 [bill_mcguire]: out if you target though then you can have a huge and rapid transition very 441 00:20:15,993 --> 00:20:19,319 [bill_mcguire]: very quickly and that's got to be the answer i think 442 00:20:19,222 --> 00:20:19,282 [zaza]: so 443 00:20:19,739 --> 00:20:23,646 [bill_mcguire]: that's something that could be done today if the will was there obviously fossil field 444 00:20:23,726 --> 00:20:26,791 [bill_mcguire]: company are going to be objecting to this understandably 445 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:26,920 [zaza]: yeah 446 00:20:26,811 --> 00:20:30,137 [bill_mcguire]: from their point of view and world leaders don't want to do it i mean 447 00:20:30,177 --> 00:20:32,100 [bill_mcguire]: there was announcement today from india 448 00:20:32,222 --> 00:20:32,243 [zaza]: i 449 00:20:32,681 --> 00:20:38,371 [bill_mcguire]: that the biggest investment in coal in country's history they want to dig out so 450 00:20:38,471 --> 00:20:41,836 [bill_mcguire]: much cold that not only have they got as much as they need but they 451 00:20:41,876 --> 00:20:42,918 [bill_mcguire]: want to export as well 452 00:20:43,104 --> 00:20:43,365 [zaza]: okay 453 00:20:43,199 --> 00:20:48,349 [bill_mcguire]: that's insanity frankly considering india is going to be absolutely hammered by clo it break 454 00:20:48,430 --> 00:20:50,063 [bill_mcguire]: down that is just insane 455 00:20:50,170 --> 00:20:54,198 [zaza]: yeah we wasn't there reports of birds excuse me birds 456 00:20:54,297 --> 00:20:54,478 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 457 00:20:54,859 --> 00:20:59,828 [zaza]: falling from the sky because of extreme heat only this summer in india i don't 458 00:20:59,868 --> 00:21:00,008 [zaza]: know 459 00:21:00,813 --> 00:21:05,601 [bill_mcguire]: yeah fifty four fifty five degrees and india and china are going 460 00:21:05,610 --> 00:21:06,330 [zaza]: yes 461 00:21:05,641 --> 00:21:09,971 [bill_mcguire]: to be susceptible to in the future to what are called humid waves where the 462 00:21:10,031 --> 00:21:16,070 [bill_mcguire]: combination of humidity and heat stops the human body from sweating it can't lose heat 463 00:21:17,114 --> 00:21:21,939 [bill_mcguire]: ultimately within six hours organ failure results in death and there's nothing that can be 464 00:21:21,999 --> 00:21:27,872 [bill_mcguire]: done unless conditioning is available so for agriculture workers in india and china you could 465 00:21:27,912 --> 00:21:32,867 [bill_mcguire]: see millions dying in a day the second f this century if not before it 466 00:21:32,967 --> 00:21:35,895 [bill_mcguire]: seems that the government just couldn't care less about its own people 467 00:21:37,857 --> 00:21:42,211 [zaza]: dreadful even if we stop pumping greenhouse 468 00:21:41,907 --> 00:21:42,107 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 469 00:21:42,411 --> 00:21:47,098 [zaza]: gases into the atmosphere right now we're still going to be warming up for a 470 00:21:47,138 --> 00:21:50,142 [zaza]: while right this is how it works there's so much 471 00:21:50,078 --> 00:21:50,320 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 472 00:21:50,182 --> 00:21:54,867 [zaza]: gases in the atmosphere right now that it would take decades for or earth to 473 00:21:54,927 --> 00:21:58,566 [zaza]: start cooling down again i understand that correctly 474 00:21:58,297 --> 00:22:00,982 [bill_mcguire]: well it's slight it's slightly 475 00:22:01,030 --> 00:22:01,231 [zaza]: okay 476 00:22:01,062 --> 00:22:05,068 [bill_mcguire]: different i mean unless there's if you discount tipping points 477 00:22:05,100 --> 00:22:05,361 [zaza]: oh 478 00:22:05,429 --> 00:22:08,154 [bill_mcguire]: which you can't really but if you forget about those for the moment if we 479 00:22:08,234 --> 00:22:12,000 [bill_mcguire]: cut all emissions today down to zero then you might get a little bit of 480 00:22:12,060 --> 00:22:17,149 [bill_mcguire]: heating for maybe a decade or two but essentially it would stop but it wouldn't 481 00:22:17,209 --> 00:22:21,756 [bill_mcguire]: go down that's the problem that the peak temperature that we're reaching here was stale 482 00:22:21,997 --> 00:22:25,222 [bill_mcguire]: for many decades may be centuries so we're locking 483 00:22:24,930 --> 00:22:25,171 [zaza]: yeah 484 00:22:25,282 --> 00:22:26,364 [bill_mcguire]: the earth the temperature 485 00:22:26,379 --> 00:22:26,520 [zaza]: yeah 486 00:22:26,464 --> 00:22:26,725 [bill_mcguire]: global 487 00:22:26,580 --> 00:22:26,782 [zaza]: oh 488 00:22:26,845 --> 00:22:29,349 [bill_mcguire]: temperly goes up and up and up we're locking that temperature in for a very 489 00:22:29,409 --> 00:22:29,910 [bill_mcguire]: long time 490 00:22:29,781 --> 00:22:29,923 [zaza]: yes 491 00:22:30,331 --> 00:22:33,416 [bill_mcguire]: unless you use technology to suck the carbon out 492 00:22:34,621 --> 00:22:39,245 [zaza]: and what's happening with that are we there yet technologically 493 00:22:39,688 --> 00:22:44,295 [bill_mcguire]: well this is this is this is the whole thing with geo engineering there are 494 00:22:44,335 --> 00:22:49,404 [bill_mcguire]: things you can have been demonstrated on a small scale but rolling them out at 495 00:22:49,464 --> 00:22:54,682 [bill_mcguire]: a global scale would be as differ cutting emissions globally that's the thing i mean 496 00:22:54,722 --> 00:23:00,003 [bill_mcguire]: there's a plant in iceland that was opened last year a power plant that will 497 00:23:00,124 --> 00:23:05,853 [bill_mcguire]: suck four thousand tons of carbon out of the atmosphere every year but just a 498 00:23:05,933 --> 00:23:09,809 [bill_mcguire]: code with a year's worth of admamissio you would need ten million of those plants 499 00:23:09,869 --> 00:23:15,252 [bill_mcguire]: around the world think how much energy resources water power said to are needed 500 00:23:15,111 --> 00:23:15,253 [zaza]: yeah 501 00:23:15,312 --> 00:23:15,954 [bill_mcguire]: to build those 502 00:23:16,770 --> 00:23:16,991 [zaza]: yeah 503 00:23:17,017 --> 00:23:20,545 [bill_mcguire]: this is the same with all your engineering skins pretty much you scale them up 504 00:23:21,167 --> 00:23:21,287 [bill_mcguire]: and 505 00:23:21,294 --> 00:23:21,315 [zaza]: i 506 00:23:21,828 --> 00:23:24,675 [bill_mcguire]: they become incredibly difficult and expensive to do 507 00:23:26,401 --> 00:23:30,467 [zaza]: lately there's been a lot of talk about the advances and nuclear fusion so trying 508 00:23:30,507 --> 00:23:31,629 [zaza]: to re i think especially 509 00:23:31,647 --> 00:23:32,009 [bill_mcguire]: uh 510 00:23:31,669 --> 00:23:32,931 [zaza]: from the u k right so 511 00:23:33,036 --> 00:23:33,057 [bill_mcguire]: h 512 00:23:33,052 --> 00:23:36,097 [zaza]: trying to relic okay i see we've gotten a reaction 513 00:23:36,036 --> 00:23:36,197 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 514 00:23:36,177 --> 00:23:39,523 [zaza]: already so basically trying to replicate the reaction that 515 00:23:39,447 --> 00:23:39,708 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 516 00:23:39,623 --> 00:23:44,752 [zaza]: powers the sun do you put okay rhetorical question but by this point 517 00:23:45,057 --> 00:23:45,077 [bill_mcguire]: m 518 00:23:45,133 --> 00:23:48,138 [zaza]: but do you put any stock into this is one of the possible 519 00:23:48,597 --> 00:23:49,437 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 520 00:23:49,161 --> 00:23:49,605 [zaza]: solutions 521 00:23:51,777 --> 00:23:55,884 [bill_mcguire]: well in the future it would be very nice but it's it's nowhere near being 522 00:23:56,305 --> 00:24:01,293 [bill_mcguire]: workable so it can't do anything to address the critical situation we're in now the 523 00:24:01,333 --> 00:24:05,721 [bill_mcguire]: other thing is ever since i've been about five years old fusion has been forty 524 00:24:05,761 --> 00:24:10,049 [bill_mcguire]: years in the future has been forty years future all through my life and i 525 00:24:10,149 --> 00:24:13,095 [bill_mcguire]: know people now claim it's nearer than that but i'll believe it when i see 526 00:24:13,175 --> 00:24:13,235 [bill_mcguire]: it 527 00:24:14,101 --> 00:24:18,488 [zaza]: fair enough um okay so before oh no i wanted to 528 00:24:18,509 --> 00:24:18,549 [bill_mcguire]: m 529 00:24:18,528 --> 00:24:19,169 [zaza]: talk about this 530 00:24:19,917 --> 00:24:20,257 [bill_mcguire]: oh 531 00:24:20,271 --> 00:24:25,500 [zaza]: bad news is not over in the book you talk about known unknowns is it 532 00:24:25,540 --> 00:24:26,321 [zaza]: the other way around 533 00:24:26,106 --> 00:24:26,127 [bill_mcguire]: m 534 00:24:26,722 --> 00:24:27,443 [zaza]: which is a term 535 00:24:28,017 --> 00:24:28,319 [bill_mcguire]: uh 536 00:24:28,184 --> 00:24:29,086 [zaza]: that was used 537 00:24:29,266 --> 00:24:29,307 [bill_mcguire]: uh 538 00:24:29,306 --> 00:24:30,588 [zaza]: quite unfortunately by 539 00:24:30,632 --> 00:24:30,853 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 540 00:24:30,749 --> 00:24:33,493 [zaza]: the former secretary what was he again 541 00:24:33,897 --> 00:24:34,118 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 542 00:24:34,094 --> 00:24:35,356 [zaza]: rums field right defense 543 00:24:35,297 --> 00:24:36,140 [bill_mcguire]: donald rumsfeld 544 00:24:35,817 --> 00:24:36,658 [zaza]: defense secretary 545 00:24:36,220 --> 00:24:36,361 [bill_mcguire]: year 546 00:24:36,719 --> 00:24:38,702 [zaza]: of the u s when he tried 547 00:24:38,558 --> 00:24:38,721 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 548 00:24:39,684 --> 00:24:43,390 [zaza]: very hard to mask the fact that they 549 00:24:43,377 --> 00:24:43,618 [bill_mcguire]: oh 550 00:24:43,830 --> 00:24:48,478 [zaza]: knew that there was no what call nuclear weapons i rack 551 00:24:49,347 --> 00:24:50,611 [bill_mcguire]: weapons of mass destruction 552 00:24:50,101 --> 00:24:50,802 [zaza]: weapons of mass 553 00:24:50,732 --> 00:24:50,832 [bill_mcguire]: yea 554 00:24:50,842 --> 00:24:51,282 [zaza]: destruction 555 00:24:51,093 --> 00:24:51,153 [bill_mcguire]: we 556 00:24:51,402 --> 00:24:52,023 [zaza]: that's what it is 557 00:24:53,099 --> 00:24:53,139 [bill_mcguire]: m 558 00:24:53,165 --> 00:24:55,808 [zaza]: can you talk about the known unknowns 559 00:24:55,416 --> 00:24:55,437 [bill_mcguire]: m 560 00:24:57,131 --> 00:24:58,602 [zaza]: um m as far 561 00:24:58,617 --> 00:24:59,367 [bill_mcguire]: yah 562 00:24:58,663 --> 00:24:59,854 [zaza]: as climate change is concerned 563 00:24:59,637 --> 00:25:05,212 [bill_mcguire]: my yeah well i mean one of them which is the one that my research 564 00:25:05,292 --> 00:25:11,423 [bill_mcguire]: focuses on is how climate changing climate actually affects a solid earth which people even 565 00:25:11,503 --> 00:25:12,284 [bill_mcguire]: climate scientists 566 00:25:12,441 --> 00:25:12,461 [zaza]: i 567 00:25:12,765 --> 00:25:14,127 [bill_mcguire]: had no idea about until 568 00:25:14,444 --> 00:25:14,465 [zaza]: i 569 00:25:14,788 --> 00:25:20,838 [bill_mcguire]: until i contributed to the twenty twelve p c report and it sounds mad to 570 00:25:21,099 --> 00:25:21,900 [bill_mcguire]: lots of people today 571 00:25:22,104 --> 00:25:22,166 [zaza]: ah 572 00:25:22,581 --> 00:25:26,568 [bill_mcguire]: but it's a big issue where you where you have particularly very thick ice sheets 573 00:25:27,169 --> 00:25:27,971 [bill_mcguire]: those ice sheets 574 00:25:27,881 --> 00:25:27,962 [zaza]: no 575 00:25:28,111 --> 00:25:28,772 [bill_mcguire]: tend to stop 576 00:25:28,654 --> 00:25:28,736 [zaza]: oh 577 00:25:29,374 --> 00:25:33,121 [bill_mcguire]: active fouts in the earth's crust from moving due to the weight of the ice 578 00:25:33,802 --> 00:25:38,110 [bill_mcguire]: but as the ice is removed load on those forts is removed and they can 579 00:25:38,631 --> 00:25:43,339 [bill_mcguire]: they can rupture to generate earthquakes because they probably won't have done rupture at all 580 00:25:43,399 --> 00:25:46,163 [bill_mcguire]: for thousands of years they tend to generate massive quakes 581 00:25:46,161 --> 00:25:46,242 [zaza]: no 582 00:25:46,624 --> 00:25:51,407 [bill_mcguire]: and we saw this at the end of the last i age in scandinavia huge 583 00:25:51,608 --> 00:25:57,437 [bill_mcguire]: ice sheet which melted and allowed the force underneath to rupture we had accumulate stream 584 00:25:57,497 --> 00:26:02,886 [bill_mcguire]: for eighty thousand years or so so we had magnitude eight earthquakes in lapland where 585 00:26:03,067 --> 00:26:07,895 [bill_mcguire]: is astonishing is the sort of things you expect to get around the pacific rim 586 00:26:09,598 --> 00:26:13,124 [bill_mcguire]: the worrying thing is that one of these earthquakes triggered one of the world's biggest 587 00:26:13,204 --> 00:26:15,187 [bill_mcguire]: submarine lance lights which 588 00:26:15,231 --> 00:26:15,353 [zaza]: oh 589 00:26:15,247 --> 00:26:20,596 [bill_mcguire]: sent a senarmi across into the uk norway right across the atlantic down into the 590 00:26:20,636 --> 00:26:21,057 [bill_mcguire]: north sea 591 00:26:21,048 --> 00:26:21,068 [zaza]: i 592 00:26:21,157 --> 00:26:26,366 [bill_mcguire]: with the heights of twenty meters or so and the worry today is that greenland 593 00:26:26,826 --> 00:26:31,895 [bill_mcguire]: is exactly the same position as scandinavia was twenty thousand years ago the whole of 594 00:26:31,935 --> 00:26:36,202 [bill_mcguire]: the north atlantic now is bouncing back up again as the ice melts any force 595 00:26:36,282 --> 00:26:43,694 [bill_mcguire]: under greenland could start to two generate earthquakes within decades and those in turn have 596 00:26:43,875 --> 00:26:49,103 [bill_mcguire]: the potential to trigger submarine landslides due to the shaking and we may therefore have 597 00:26:49,164 --> 00:26:53,189 [bill_mcguire]: a senavirisk in the north atlantic so that's something that most people would never have 598 00:26:53,229 --> 00:26:57,713 [bill_mcguire]: thought of in terms of climate breakdown but it's one of the one of the 599 00:26:57,813 --> 00:27:00,516 [bill_mcguire]: now unknown well it's known to some people and not to many 600 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:05,228 [zaza]: so a hypothetical sonoma would come our way in europe or can it go anywhere 601 00:27:05,468 --> 00:27:07,324 [zaza]: or how does that work 602 00:27:07,857 --> 00:27:10,762 [bill_mcguire]: well i i mean the slide off 603 00:27:10,711 --> 00:27:10,732 [zaza]: a 604 00:27:10,802 --> 00:27:12,545 [bill_mcguire]: the coast of norway which happened at the end of 605 00:27:12,510 --> 00:27:12,673 [zaza]: yeah 606 00:27:12,585 --> 00:27:15,610 [bill_mcguire]: the last ice age when westward and southward 607 00:27:15,361 --> 00:27:15,422 [zaza]: no 608 00:27:15,670 --> 00:27:19,496 [bill_mcguire]: it spread out from a point across the whole of the north atlantic the run 609 00:27:19,576 --> 00:27:24,402 [bill_mcguire]: up the height of the waves in northern scotland was twenty meters so you know 610 00:27:24,522 --> 00:27:27,285 [bill_mcguire]: i went the shetland isles the wave just went straight 611 00:27:27,090 --> 00:27:28,950 [zaza]: yeah 612 00:27:27,345 --> 00:27:31,962 [bill_mcguire]: across there was no obstacle for them and there was an area of land which 613 00:27:32,022 --> 00:27:36,189 [bill_mcguire]: is inhabited in the north sea called dog land at the time that was wiped 614 00:27:36,290 --> 00:27:38,954 [bill_mcguire]: out by these waves so there is a potential 615 00:27:39,810 --> 00:27:39,830 [zaza]: m 616 00:27:40,557 --> 00:27:40,777 [bill_mcguire]: for 617 00:27:41,490 --> 00:27:41,671 [zaza]: oh 618 00:27:42,219 --> 00:27:44,644 [bill_mcguire]: well i have a number of german colleagues that have worked on this and they 619 00:27:44,724 --> 00:27:50,553 [bill_mcguire]: call call for size mic response in the greenland area within possibly within decade so 620 00:27:50,613 --> 00:27:53,668 [bill_mcguire]: you know we can start to see earthquake activity starting to pop 621 00:27:53,670 --> 00:27:55,170 [zaza]: yeah 622 00:27:53,769 --> 00:27:55,693 [bill_mcguire]: up there he's a bit worrying 623 00:27:56,104 --> 00:27:56,868 [zaza]: great great 624 00:27:56,727 --> 00:27:59,007 [bill_mcguire]: yah 625 00:27:56,929 --> 00:27:57,130 [zaza]: news 626 00:27:59,157 --> 00:27:59,358 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 627 00:27:59,390 --> 00:27:59,630 [zaza]: okay 628 00:28:01,047 --> 00:28:01,887 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 629 00:28:01,233 --> 00:28:01,794 [zaza]: how do you 630 00:28:01,988 --> 00:28:02,171 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 631 00:28:02,595 --> 00:28:08,706 [zaza]: what do you say to so called climate change skeptics when they say oh you 632 00:28:08,746 --> 00:28:09,327 [zaza]: know the 633 00:28:09,209 --> 00:28:09,291 [bill_mcguire]: oh 634 00:28:09,427 --> 00:28:10,509 [zaza]: earth is always doing 635 00:28:10,467 --> 00:28:10,689 [bill_mcguire]: oh 636 00:28:10,589 --> 00:28:15,156 [zaza]: it staying the climate is going to change it's all kind of natural we've seen 637 00:28:15,196 --> 00:28:17,019 [zaza]: it before in the earth's past and 638 00:28:17,070 --> 00:28:17,151 [bill_mcguire]: ah 639 00:28:17,180 --> 00:28:20,686 [zaza]: of course we're seeing it again and the human you know 640 00:28:20,637 --> 00:28:21,909 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 641 00:28:20,766 --> 00:28:25,340 [zaza]: the human contribution is neglegeable um are you tired of these conversations 642 00:28:25,020 --> 00:28:25,122 [bill_mcguire]: oh 643 00:28:25,521 --> 00:28:26,667 [zaza]: or are they still worth having 644 00:28:28,550 --> 00:28:29,111 [bill_mcguire]: i don't have 645 00:28:29,393 --> 00:28:29,413 [zaza]: i 646 00:28:29,592 --> 00:28:33,158 [bill_mcguire]: well what i normally say is you're not a skeptic because a skeptic has looked 647 00:28:33,198 --> 00:28:35,141 [bill_mcguire]: at all the evidence and come to a different conclusion 648 00:28:35,010 --> 00:28:35,252 [zaza]: oh 649 00:28:35,602 --> 00:28:38,006 [bill_mcguire]: the evidence for anthropagenic for 650 00:28:37,980 --> 00:28:38,222 [zaza]: oh 651 00:28:38,086 --> 00:28:43,034 [bill_mcguire]: human cause climate breakdown is overwhelming so you can't be skeptical of it you're a 652 00:28:43,115 --> 00:28:47,522 [bill_mcguire]: denier that's the first thing i say and they are deniers a lot of it's 653 00:28:47,662 --> 00:28:55,115 [bill_mcguire]: ideological they tend to be right wing libertarian people who who everything is a free 654 00:28:55,195 --> 00:28:59,362 [bill_mcguire]: market they don't want anything that can affect that so climate breakdown affects their world 655 00:28:59,442 --> 00:29:03,528 [bill_mcguire]: view and therefore they're just going to ignore it pretend it's not happening so i 656 00:29:03,629 --> 00:29:06,373 [bill_mcguire]: reckon a lot of them in the back of their minds know this is real 657 00:29:06,794 --> 00:29:07,896 [bill_mcguire]: but they just won't admit it 658 00:29:08,490 --> 00:29:14,900 [zaza]: yeah it seems to me okay before our listeners accuse us of pure fear mongering 659 00:29:14,672 --> 00:29:14,775 [bill_mcguire]: oh 660 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:16,603 [zaza]: what can we as individuals do 661 00:29:16,617 --> 00:29:17,282 [bill_mcguire]: oh 662 00:29:16,703 --> 00:29:19,107 [zaza]: right now to make our contribution 663 00:29:19,107 --> 00:29:19,351 [bill_mcguire]: oh 664 00:29:19,608 --> 00:29:21,314 [zaza]: you know in stopping climates breakdown 665 00:29:23,597 --> 00:29:26,121 [bill_mcguire]: well in terms of fear mongering one thing i should say first of all is 666 00:29:26,241 --> 00:29:31,150 [bill_mcguire]: everything in hot house earth is based on pure reviewed research and observation so there's 667 00:29:31,250 --> 00:29:36,999 [bill_mcguire]: nothing there at all of my personal opinion it's just is work but in terms 668 00:29:37,119 --> 00:29:41,407 [bill_mcguire]: of what we should do i think everybody by now knows about the obvious things 669 00:29:41,567 --> 00:29:45,333 [bill_mcguire]: not flying using public transport as as much as possible 670 00:29:45,066 --> 00:29:45,086 [zaza]: a 671 00:29:46,555 --> 00:29:51,564 [bill_mcguire]: go by switching to a green energy energy tariff all these sorts of things not 672 00:29:51,644 --> 00:29:57,053 [bill_mcguire]: eating as much meat no meat if possible but i know lots of people that 673 00:29:57,113 --> 00:29:59,276 [bill_mcguire]: do this and they've said to me you know i still don't feel as if 674 00:29:59,477 --> 00:30:02,061 [bill_mcguire]: doing anything and i've getten quite depressed and i tell them 675 00:30:02,412 --> 00:30:02,432 [zaza]: i 676 00:30:02,542 --> 00:30:04,445 [bill_mcguire]: join an activist organization 677 00:30:04,072 --> 00:30:04,276 [zaza]: right 678 00:30:05,497 --> 00:30:09,862 [bill_mcguire]: and you know it's just stop world extinction rebellion in site britain or whatever you 679 00:30:09,903 --> 00:30:14,028 [bill_mcguire]: would have in germany or other countries because first of all it means that you're 680 00:30:14,349 --> 00:30:18,836 [bill_mcguire]: actively doing something hands on but also it will make you feel better you will 681 00:30:18,856 --> 00:30:22,883 [bill_mcguire]: feel much more positive because you're getting involved in it and i tell people you 682 00:30:22,923 --> 00:30:26,830 [bill_mcguire]: don't have to stick yourself to roads or building or do anything like that there 683 00:30:26,890 --> 00:30:31,177 [bill_mcguire]: are lots of back room roles that these organizations need 684 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:31,261 [zaza]: oh 685 00:30:32,118 --> 00:30:34,242 [bill_mcguire]: and it will be great all round and be grate 686 00:30:34,196 --> 00:30:34,217 [zaza]: a 687 00:30:34,282 --> 00:30:37,148 [bill_mcguire]: for the organizations and it will make you feel much to 688 00:30:37,380 --> 00:30:38,964 [zaza]: ah it is likely 689 00:30:39,117 --> 00:30:39,782 [bill_mcguire]: it seems to work 690 00:30:39,826 --> 00:30:40,167 [zaza]: excuse me 691 00:30:42,227 --> 00:30:43,650 [bill_mcguire]: it seems to work people i've talked to 692 00:30:43,621 --> 00:30:43,842 [zaza]: okay 693 00:30:43,770 --> 00:30:44,291 [bill_mcguire]: have joined up 694 00:30:44,604 --> 00:30:44,785 [zaza]: that's 695 00:30:44,732 --> 00:30:44,813 [bill_mcguire]: so 696 00:30:44,825 --> 00:30:45,006 [zaza]: a good 697 00:30:44,953 --> 00:30:45,113 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 698 00:30:45,066 --> 00:30:45,206 [zaza]: tip 699 00:30:45,294 --> 00:30:46,536 [bill_mcguire]: it does work i feel a 700 00:30:46,571 --> 00:30:46,732 [zaza]: yeah 701 00:30:46,576 --> 00:30:49,383 [bill_mcguire]: lot happier just being with other people who like minded 702 00:30:49,300 --> 00:30:49,500 [zaza]: right 703 00:30:49,463 --> 00:30:49,703 [bill_mcguire]: people 704 00:30:49,740 --> 00:30:49,941 [zaza]: right 705 00:30:49,763 --> 00:30:50,585 [bill_mcguire]: makes a big difference 706 00:30:50,422 --> 00:30:54,368 [zaza]: because it seems to me that the solutions narrative that's being pushed in the media 707 00:30:54,448 --> 00:30:56,412 [zaza]: right now like you said is focused on this kind 708 00:30:56,307 --> 00:30:56,327 [bill_mcguire]: m 709 00:30:56,452 --> 00:30:58,695 [zaza]: of non political individualistic 710 00:30:58,377 --> 00:30:58,579 [bill_mcguire]: oh 711 00:30:59,396 --> 00:31:04,164 [zaza]: tweak your habits approach you know just sort out your garbage and will be just 712 00:31:04,345 --> 00:31:04,946 [zaza]: fine in the 713 00:31:04,857 --> 00:31:05,967 [bill_mcguire]: oh 714 00:31:05,066 --> 00:31:07,089 [zaza]: end on the other hand i've just read 715 00:31:07,047 --> 00:31:07,369 [bill_mcguire]: oh 716 00:31:07,650 --> 00:31:12,578 [zaza]: an article on c n n citing a study that said that billionaires admit 717 00:31:12,627 --> 00:31:12,930 [bill_mcguire]: oh 718 00:31:12,999 --> 00:31:16,745 [zaza]: a million times more greenhouse gases than the average person 719 00:31:16,977 --> 00:31:17,078 [bill_mcguire]: ye 720 00:31:17,887 --> 00:31:18,809 [zaza]: um you know 721 00:31:18,848 --> 00:31:18,930 [bill_mcguire]: ah 722 00:31:19,109 --> 00:31:22,315 [zaza]: so it makes you think i'm doing everything i'm supposed to do and then we 723 00:31:22,375 --> 00:31:23,136 [zaza]: have some idiot 724 00:31:23,067 --> 00:31:23,313 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 725 00:31:23,316 --> 00:31:24,679 [zaza]: on his private plane 726 00:31:25,146 --> 00:31:25,167 [bill_mcguire]: m 727 00:31:25,500 --> 00:31:26,020 [zaza]: polluting 728 00:31:25,617 --> 00:31:25,837 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 729 00:31:26,441 --> 00:31:30,846 [zaza]: like a million more versions of me how is that right i mean why are 730 00:31:30,886 --> 00:31:30,946 [zaza]: we 731 00:31:30,961 --> 00:31:31,001 [bill_mcguire]: m 732 00:31:31,046 --> 00:31:31,847 [zaza]: doing this from the 733 00:31:31,896 --> 00:31:31,917 [bill_mcguire]: m 734 00:31:31,907 --> 00:31:33,949 [zaza]: bottom up and not the other way around 735 00:31:36,537 --> 00:31:42,087 [bill_mcguire]: i completely agree and i mentioned in the book something about the carbon footprints of 736 00:31:42,187 --> 00:31:42,708 [bill_mcguire]: millionaires 737 00:31:42,611 --> 00:31:42,692 [zaza]: no 738 00:31:42,948 --> 00:31:45,332 [bill_mcguire]: and now of course they can ship themselves off into 739 00:31:45,258 --> 00:31:45,399 [zaza]: yeah 740 00:31:45,412 --> 00:31:46,855 [bill_mcguire]: space just to make their footprint 741 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,630 [zaza]: oh 742 00:31:46,935 --> 00:31:49,821 [bill_mcguire]: that much bigger so it's ridiculous 743 00:31:49,641 --> 00:31:49,701 [zaza]: no 744 00:31:50,162 --> 00:31:50,663 [bill_mcguire]: and it's also 745 00:31:50,940 --> 00:31:51,201 [zaza]: yeah 746 00:31:51,084 --> 00:31:54,681 [bill_mcguire]: i mean i think just a few days ago one of the heads of one 747 00:31:54,701 --> 00:31:58,988 [bill_mcguire]: of the old companies was saying oh it's not our fault people should stop using 748 00:31:59,048 --> 00:32:03,455 [bill_mcguire]: all this stuff made from fuss fuel so it's nothing to do with him apparently 749 00:32:04,337 --> 00:32:08,815 [bill_mcguire]: it's all our fault so yeah you're right it has to come from it has 750 00:32:08,855 --> 00:32:10,981 [bill_mcguire]: to come from governments corporations 751 00:32:11,250 --> 00:32:11,970 [zaza]: yeah 752 00:32:12,867 --> 00:32:14,312 [bill_mcguire]: and yeah billionaires as well 753 00:32:14,220 --> 00:32:14,602 [zaza]: oh 754 00:32:15,355 --> 00:32:17,020 [bill_mcguire]: which in my opinion we shouldn't have any 755 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:17,120 [zaza]: it's 756 00:32:17,121 --> 00:32:17,201 [bill_mcguire]: of 757 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,265 [zaza]: slightly worrisome that even people 758 00:32:19,047 --> 00:32:19,887 [bill_mcguire]: oh 759 00:32:19,305 --> 00:32:25,345 [zaza]: who have young kids just don't seem to be that interested in you know changing 760 00:32:25,666 --> 00:32:30,741 [zaza]: or like you said joining an activist group were all just kind 761 00:32:30,747 --> 00:32:30,947 [bill_mcguire]: oh 762 00:32:30,761 --> 00:32:32,767 [zaza]: of waiting for something really bad 763 00:32:33,557 --> 00:32:33,598 [bill_mcguire]: m 764 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,564 [zaza]: happen and and i don't know 765 00:32:36,816 --> 00:32:36,837 [bill_mcguire]: m 766 00:32:37,105 --> 00:32:41,953 [zaza]: and you describing the book as well that it's starting that climate breakdown itself is 767 00:32:42,014 --> 00:32:47,323 [zaza]: starting to have an impact on mental health could you could you 768 00:32:47,290 --> 00:32:47,471 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 769 00:32:47,384 --> 00:32:50,818 [zaza]: talk about that a little bit as well why is that so 770 00:32:51,898 --> 00:32:56,726 [bill_mcguire]: yes i mean there's it's well there are a number of areas and where in 771 00:32:56,766 --> 00:33:01,154 [bill_mcguire]: this is happening i mean partly people who do understand climate change and do know 772 00:33:01,174 --> 00:33:06,743 [bill_mcguire]: what it's going to bring not surprising getting more depressed about it and worried so 773 00:33:06,823 --> 00:33:11,391 [bill_mcguire]: it's affecting many people's mental health in that sort of way but also when you 774 00:33:11,451 --> 00:33:13,715 [bill_mcguire]: have increasing increasing amount 775 00:33:13,785 --> 00:33:13,806 [zaza]: i 776 00:33:13,795 --> 00:33:22,292 [bill_mcguire]: of extreme weather particularly in maturity world countries that affects people's mental health hugely if 777 00:33:22,312 --> 00:33:25,677 [bill_mcguire]: you have got a home if you've been shifted two hundred miles away from where 778 00:33:25,717 --> 00:33:29,363 [bill_mcguire]: you live because of drought that things that are going on at the moment in 779 00:33:29,524 --> 00:33:34,289 [bill_mcguire]: a estafrica for example famine and drag all these sorts of things contribute to a 780 00:33:34,369 --> 00:33:39,675 [bill_mcguire]: massive increase in mental health across the planet so inevitably that's going to get worse 781 00:33:39,735 --> 00:33:40,936 [bill_mcguire]: and worse as time goes on 782 00:33:42,502 --> 00:33:47,851 [zaza]: as a bit of an eastern european come i simply have to ask you this 783 00:33:48,412 --> 00:33:50,816 [zaza]: the famous brazilian environ environmental 784 00:33:50,217 --> 00:33:50,442 [bill_mcguire]: oh 785 00:33:50,876 --> 00:33:54,743 [zaza]: ist chet commanders who was fighting to preserve that amazon rain forest and was also 786 00:33:54,903 --> 00:33:58,108 [zaza]: killed because of his activities once famously said 787 00:33:58,167 --> 00:33:59,097 [bill_mcguire]: oh 788 00:33:58,188 --> 00:34:01,594 [zaza]: that ecology without class struggle is just gardening 789 00:34:02,256 --> 00:34:02,277 [bill_mcguire]: m 790 00:34:02,475 --> 00:34:07,109 [zaza]: do you think that it is even possible to of this problem within the system 791 00:34:07,169 --> 00:34:08,877 [zaza]: that created it in the first place 792 00:34:11,287 --> 00:34:17,397 [bill_mcguire]: no i don't think capitalism can solve the climate emergency is a system based on 793 00:34:17,557 --> 00:34:22,806 [bill_mcguire]: greed short term profit and exploitation how how the hell is that going to serve 794 00:34:22,866 --> 00:34:26,080 [bill_mcguire]: the problems that we have at the moment we need a system that works for 795 00:34:26,101 --> 00:34:26,804 [bill_mcguire]: the greater good 796 00:34:27,030 --> 00:34:27,351 [zaza]: oh 797 00:34:27,557 --> 00:34:31,008 [bill_mcguire]: the one and it doesn't rate the planet otherwise i can't see how we can 798 00:34:31,811 --> 00:34:32,774 [bill_mcguire]: we'll manage to do this 799 00:34:34,151 --> 00:34:38,158 [zaza]: could you offer us a bit of a glimpse in the background because you were 800 00:34:38,298 --> 00:34:39,139 [zaza]: a contributor to 801 00:34:39,147 --> 00:34:40,017 [bill_mcguire]: oh 802 00:34:39,199 --> 00:34:43,947 [zaza]: the twenty twelve i p c c report on climate change and extreme events how 803 00:34:44,007 --> 00:34:47,336 [zaza]: does that look like working not just with scientists 804 00:34:47,157 --> 00:34:48,207 [bill_mcguire]: oh 805 00:34:47,838 --> 00:34:49,122 [zaza]: but also with politicians 806 00:34:49,017 --> 00:34:49,037 [bill_mcguire]: m 807 00:34:49,222 --> 00:34:50,747 [zaza]: and probably lobbyists as well 808 00:34:53,007 --> 00:34:54,309 [bill_mcguire]: well that was a special report 809 00:34:54,161 --> 00:34:54,181 [zaza]: a 810 00:34:54,610 --> 00:34:58,416 [bill_mcguire]: not one of the not one of the six year summaries that they do as 811 00:34:58,476 --> 00:35:02,483 [bill_mcguire]: a special report looking at extreme weather and the impact of admissions on that 812 00:35:02,401 --> 00:35:02,421 [zaza]: i 813 00:35:02,523 --> 00:35:06,630 [bill_mcguire]: which is why i contributed a part on how the climate and the solid earth 814 00:35:06,670 --> 00:35:12,439 [bill_mcguire]: would interact but everything that was in that report has pretty much come to pass 815 00:35:14,122 --> 00:35:20,793 [bill_mcguire]: and much earlier than expected i think the problem is that governments and most people 816 00:35:20,954 --> 00:35:22,757 [bill_mcguire]: don't still don't get it they still 817 00:35:22,721 --> 00:35:22,802 [zaza]: we 818 00:35:22,797 --> 00:35:29,808 [bill_mcguire]: don't understand how bad climate breakdown is set to be if you you know if 819 00:35:29,848 --> 00:35:33,234 [bill_mcguire]: you don't know that if you don't appreciate that then it's never going to be 820 00:35:33,555 --> 00:35:37,922 [bill_mcguire]: of any great interest to you if you tell you tell somebody your children are 821 00:35:37,942 --> 00:35:43,872 [bill_mcguire]: going to have to fight to survive they might start thinking about it a little 822 00:35:43,892 --> 00:35:49,359 [bill_mcguire]: bit more in a little bit more detail so when we wrote that report we 823 00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:53,944 [bill_mcguire]: talked about various extreme events that could happen those things are happening now already and 824 00:35:53,984 --> 00:35:55,386 [bill_mcguire]: they're going to get a hell of a lot worse 825 00:35:56,491 --> 00:36:00,417 [zaza]: do you think we're finally going to start waking up when i don't know the 826 00:36:00,517 --> 00:36:03,983 [zaza]: offspring of the elite is going a going to get affected 827 00:36:03,687 --> 00:36:03,907 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 828 00:36:04,063 --> 00:36:08,237 [zaza]: or their livelihoods are going to get affected because it seems like until that puns 829 00:36:08,046 --> 00:36:08,247 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 830 00:36:08,930 --> 00:36:12,235 [zaza]: we're just going to hear more of empty promises more of the same 831 00:36:12,987 --> 00:36:13,289 [bill_mcguire]: oh 832 00:36:13,237 --> 00:36:13,898 [zaza]: and is it 833 00:36:14,187 --> 00:36:14,689 [bill_mcguire]: oh 834 00:36:15,110 --> 00:36:16,136 [zaza]: a real concern that 835 00:36:17,241 --> 00:36:17,448 [bill_mcguire]: okay 836 00:36:17,430 --> 00:36:19,096 [zaza]: when we finally wake up it's too late 837 00:36:18,957 --> 00:36:19,038 [bill_mcguire]: ah 838 00:36:19,156 --> 00:36:19,437 [zaza]: already 839 00:36:22,058 --> 00:36:26,866 [bill_mcguire]: well that's what i've always thought to be honest i've always thought that serious action 840 00:36:27,127 --> 00:36:32,756 [bill_mcguire]: won't be taken until nobody can ignore how bad things are getting and we'll then 841 00:36:32,876 --> 00:36:37,965 [bill_mcguire]: have the worst of both worlds because we'll still have to slash admissions even faster 842 00:36:38,405 --> 00:36:43,754 [bill_mcguire]: just to stop dangerous becoming cataclysmic and that will mean that we know we might 843 00:36:43,854 --> 00:36:47,601 [bill_mcguire]: have things like personal car and limits big 844 00:36:47,632 --> 00:36:47,755 [zaza]: oh 845 00:36:47,681 --> 00:36:50,626 [bill_mcguire]: restrictions on the various freedoms in our lives 846 00:36:50,654 --> 00:36:50,716 [zaza]: ye 847 00:36:52,188 --> 00:36:52,389 [bill_mcguire]: at the 848 00:36:52,321 --> 00:36:52,341 [zaza]: i 849 00:36:52,489 --> 00:36:55,574 [bill_mcguire]: same time as you know we're being hammered by extreme 850 00:36:55,152 --> 00:36:55,172 [zaza]: a 851 00:36:55,654 --> 00:37:01,067 [bill_mcguire]: weather left right and sane so i think the way my view has always been 852 00:37:01,107 --> 00:37:04,055 [bill_mcguire]: that we're not going to really respond until things are bad 853 00:37:04,140 --> 00:37:05,550 [zaza]: yeah 854 00:37:05,388 --> 00:37:08,363 [bill_mcguire]: that's probably going to be in a few years time the way things are going 855 00:37:08,821 --> 00:37:10,147 [zaza]: who a few years time 856 00:37:10,317 --> 00:37:14,501 [bill_mcguire]: oh yeah well look at last three years in terms of extreme 857 00:37:14,330 --> 00:37:14,531 [zaza]: okay 858 00:37:14,541 --> 00:37:19,349 [bill_mcguire]: weather another three another three years of that and there can't be many people that 859 00:37:19,389 --> 00:37:21,172 [bill_mcguire]: don't don't pick up and pay 860 00:37:21,063 --> 00:37:21,204 [zaza]: yeah 861 00:37:21,232 --> 00:37:22,895 [bill_mcguire]: attention but who knows 862 00:37:22,990 --> 00:37:26,716 [zaza]: i think we're still kind of thinking oh it's a fluke you know the brain 863 00:37:26,637 --> 00:37:26,959 [bill_mcguire]: oh 864 00:37:26,776 --> 00:37:29,821 [zaza]: just reverts back to this kind of interpretation oh 865 00:37:29,817 --> 00:37:29,998 [bill_mcguire]: oh 866 00:37:29,882 --> 00:37:31,464 [zaza]: it's been really bad this year so next 867 00:37:31,497 --> 00:37:34,467 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 868 00:37:31,544 --> 00:37:35,292 [zaza]: year it's going to be a bit more mild you know everything 869 00:37:35,227 --> 00:37:35,388 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 870 00:37:35,373 --> 00:37:35,654 [zaza]: so we 871 00:37:35,848 --> 00:37:36,029 [bill_mcguire]: in the 872 00:37:35,955 --> 00:37:36,196 [zaza]: cover 873 00:37:36,129 --> 00:37:39,175 [bill_mcguire]: ukyeah 874 00:37:36,578 --> 00:37:38,507 [zaza]: the truth from ourselves a little bit 875 00:37:40,427 --> 00:37:43,812 [bill_mcguire]: well in the u k when you know tempers thirty eight then they got up 876 00:37:43,852 --> 00:37:46,577 [bill_mcguire]: to forty degrees you still had some idiots 877 00:37:46,571 --> 00:37:46,691 [zaza]: oh 878 00:37:46,697 --> 00:37:49,402 [bill_mcguire]: saying oh i remember the summer of a decemrsix 879 00:37:49,128 --> 00:37:49,290 [zaza]: yeah 880 00:37:49,502 --> 00:37:54,049 [bill_mcguire]: that was really warm yes it was but it was anyway there like this and 881 00:37:54,110 --> 00:37:57,796 [bill_mcguire]: the only reason you remember nine seventy six because that stuck out like a sore 882 00:37:57,936 --> 00:37:58,156 [bill_mcguire]: thumb 883 00:37:58,211 --> 00:37:58,333 [zaza]: ah 884 00:37:58,557 --> 00:38:03,485 [bill_mcguire]: whereas every summer is like that or hotter now hot summers now are not anything 885 00:38:03,545 --> 00:38:06,181 [bill_mcguire]: to talk home about they just happen every year 886 00:38:07,202 --> 00:38:13,790 [zaza]: yeah i didn't the illustrious previous american president say that oh it's really cold during 887 00:38:13,830 --> 00:38:15,895 [zaza]: this winter so climate change is obviously 888 00:38:15,927 --> 00:38:16,767 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 889 00:38:15,975 --> 00:38:19,095 [zaza]: not a real problem yeah 890 00:38:19,368 --> 00:38:21,792 [bill_mcguire]: yes well let's set about that the better like 891 00:38:23,190 --> 00:38:23,953 [zaza]: fantastic 892 00:38:24,817 --> 00:38:25,859 [bill_mcguire]: when when you've only 893 00:38:25,830 --> 00:38:26,410 [zaza]: yeah 894 00:38:25,919 --> 00:38:29,245 [bill_mcguire]: got two brain cells you know you can't really come up with much sales 895 00:38:29,155 --> 00:38:29,235 [zaza]: all 896 00:38:29,285 --> 00:38:29,425 [bill_mcguire]: can 897 00:38:29,335 --> 00:38:33,422 [zaza]: right the name of this podcast is your trash which means i also have to 898 00:38:33,522 --> 00:38:34,564 [zaza]: ask you something a bit 899 00:38:34,527 --> 00:38:35,187 [bill_mcguire]: oh 900 00:38:34,624 --> 00:38:35,786 [zaza]: more silly out of 901 00:38:35,757 --> 00:38:36,002 [bill_mcguire]: oh 902 00:38:35,866 --> 00:38:37,729 [zaza]: all the so called go engineering 903 00:38:37,368 --> 00:38:37,711 [bill_mcguire]: all right 904 00:38:37,910 --> 00:38:40,546 [zaza]: ideas you've ever heard which one was the wackiest 905 00:38:43,589 --> 00:38:45,434 [bill_mcguire]: um let me think 906 00:38:46,741 --> 00:38:47,942 [zaza]: didn't bill gates want to 907 00:38:48,027 --> 00:38:49,133 [bill_mcguire]: oh 908 00:38:48,623 --> 00:38:51,607 [zaza]: shoot something into the atmosphere or something along those lines 909 00:38:51,546 --> 00:38:51,968 [bill_mcguire]: yeah yah 910 00:38:51,847 --> 00:38:53,549 [zaza]: you you describe that in the book 911 00:38:53,416 --> 00:38:53,878 [bill_mcguire]: o the bent 912 00:38:55,070 --> 00:38:55,958 [zaza]: some are salts 913 00:38:55,817 --> 00:38:56,157 [bill_mcguire]: they've been 914 00:38:56,039 --> 00:38:56,261 [zaza]: or what 915 00:38:56,218 --> 00:38:56,298 [bill_mcguire]: all 916 00:38:56,322 --> 00:38:56,584 [zaza]: was it 917 00:38:58,581 --> 00:38:59,824 [bill_mcguire]: well that's not even that unusual 918 00:38:59,522 --> 00:38:59,884 [zaza]: all right 919 00:38:59,944 --> 00:39:05,653 [bill_mcguire]: mean one of believe it or not one of the schemes that is being touted 920 00:39:05,733 --> 00:39:12,589 [bill_mcguire]: quite strongly is imitating olcano by pumping lots of sulphodeoxide or similar chemicals into 921 00:39:12,510 --> 00:39:12,712 [zaza]: is that 922 00:39:12,629 --> 00:39:13,251 [bill_mcguire]: the atmosphere 923 00:39:12,773 --> 00:39:13,541 [zaza]: the bill gates idea 924 00:39:13,933 --> 00:39:17,152 [bill_mcguire]: volcanos i think that's one 925 00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:17,260 [zaza]: all 926 00:39:17,192 --> 00:39:17,393 [bill_mcguire]: of his 927 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:17,501 [zaza]: right 928 00:39:17,473 --> 00:39:18,456 [bill_mcguire]: ideas but people have been 929 00:39:18,484 --> 00:39:18,705 [zaza]: right 930 00:39:18,496 --> 00:39:18,958 [bill_mcguire]: talking about this 931 00:39:18,906 --> 00:39:19,388 [zaza]: billionaire 932 00:39:18,998 --> 00:39:19,479 [bill_mcguire]: for for 933 00:39:19,428 --> 00:39:19,629 [zaza]: to the 934 00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:19,740 [bill_mcguire]: long 935 00:39:19,669 --> 00:39:20,010 [zaza]: rescue 936 00:39:19,921 --> 00:39:20,142 [bill_mcguire]: a long 937 00:39:20,090 --> 00:39:20,712 [zaza]: fantastic 938 00:39:20,202 --> 00:39:20,884 [bill_mcguire]: time before him 939 00:39:20,953 --> 00:39:21,435 [zaza]: bruce wain 940 00:39:22,587 --> 00:39:27,655 [bill_mcguire]: but it's not simulate volcanic eruptions big volcanic eruptions have a massive impact on the 941 00:39:27,620 --> 00:39:27,740 [zaza]: yeah 942 00:39:27,715 --> 00:39:31,582 [bill_mcguire]: weather and the climate so simulating volcano is not safe 943 00:39:31,750 --> 00:39:32,855 [zaza]: okay but what's the 944 00:39:33,124 --> 00:39:33,205 [bill_mcguire]: by 945 00:39:33,217 --> 00:39:33,398 [zaza]: what's 946 00:39:33,325 --> 00:39:33,425 [bill_mcguire]: any 947 00:39:33,418 --> 00:39:33,498 [zaza]: the 948 00:39:33,505 --> 00:39:33,786 [bill_mcguire]: means 949 00:39:33,558 --> 00:39:37,993 [zaza]: reasoning behind it could you explain it a little bit if we simulate a volcano 950 00:39:37,729 --> 00:39:38,049 [bill_mcguire]: yeah well 951 00:39:38,073 --> 00:39:39,618 [zaza]: eruption what happens to the climate 952 00:39:41,417 --> 00:39:46,846 [bill_mcguire]: well the gases if you use sulphur gases they reflect incoming solar radiation back in 953 00:39:46,886 --> 00:39:51,794 [bill_mcguire]: the space so they will cool the surface but that's doing nothing about carbon dioxide 954 00:39:51,834 --> 00:39:55,923 [bill_mcguire]: that's just treating a symptom it doesn't bring down carvdeoxide that has to be done 955 00:39:56,324 --> 00:40:00,670 [bill_mcguire]: as well if it isn't done as well and you keep blocking the sunlight when 956 00:40:00,711 --> 00:40:04,816 [bill_mcguire]: you when you eventually for some reason stop doing that the templar would just shoot 957 00:40:04,956 --> 00:40:09,313 [bill_mcguire]: up it doesn't do anything about the certification of the oceans or anything like that 958 00:40:09,433 --> 00:40:15,162 [bill_mcguire]: so you know it's a it's a sticking plaster thing to just to address one 959 00:40:15,303 --> 00:40:17,206 [bill_mcguire]: symptom rather than anything else 960 00:40:17,610 --> 00:40:17,730 [zaza]: could 961 00:40:18,394 --> 00:40:18,636 [bill_mcguire]: and it's 962 00:40:18,532 --> 00:40:18,612 [zaza]: ye 963 00:40:18,697 --> 00:40:19,040 [bill_mcguire]: risky 964 00:40:18,832 --> 00:40:24,421 [zaza]: cannot could any of these engineering ideas actually work any of the ones that you 965 00:40:24,482 --> 00:40:29,250 [zaza]: heard of what about those there was there was an idea about freezing the pole 966 00:40:29,330 --> 00:40:30,584 [zaza]: it's again or something right 967 00:40:33,107 --> 00:40:38,436 [bill_mcguire]: it's creating clouds over the poles cool in the damp protect them from sunlight but 968 00:40:38,476 --> 00:40:44,406 [bill_mcguire]: you don't know doing these things a massive scale just beyond us or would be 969 00:40:45,047 --> 00:40:52,339 [bill_mcguire]: remy costly and probably environmentally damaging and they're all experiments i mean human cause climate 970 00:40:52,379 --> 00:40:55,083 [bill_mcguire]: changes and experiment the last thing we want is more experiments 971 00:40:54,750 --> 00:40:55,950 [zaza]: yeah 972 00:40:55,644 --> 00:40:56,526 [bill_mcguire]: messing things up even 973 00:40:56,550 --> 00:40:58,020 [zaza]: yeah 974 00:40:56,606 --> 00:41:02,896 [bill_mcguire]: further so is it also stamps over everybody's human right i mean i don't want 975 00:41:02,936 --> 00:41:04,158 [bill_mcguire]: them to do that do i have any say 976 00:41:04,260 --> 00:41:04,503 [zaza]: oh 977 00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:10,427 [bill_mcguire]: whether engineering happens or not who says can go ahead who makes that on it's 978 00:41:10,487 --> 00:41:10,687 [bill_mcguire]: just 979 00:41:10,891 --> 00:41:10,993 [zaza]: oh 980 00:41:11,268 --> 00:41:15,674 [bill_mcguire]: it's a whole kind of worms we shouldn't be opening if we just slashed emissions 981 00:41:15,815 --> 00:41:16,556 [bill_mcguire]: as we need to do 982 00:41:16,820 --> 00:41:21,827 [zaza]: so any of these ideas would actually be another known unknown with unforeseeable side effect 983 00:41:21,849 --> 00:41:23,205 [bill_mcguire]: okay 984 00:41:22,468 --> 00:41:23,149 [zaza]: probably right 985 00:41:23,967 --> 00:41:26,711 [bill_mcguire]: absolutely you get people you will get people who 986 00:41:26,701 --> 00:41:26,782 [zaza]: oh 987 00:41:26,771 --> 00:41:30,878 [bill_mcguire]: support them in oh we've modeled it and everything is fine but suddenly enough i 988 00:41:30,938 --> 00:41:31,499 [bill_mcguire]: don't trust 989 00:41:31,620 --> 00:41:33,578 [zaza]: oh fair enough 990 00:41:33,863 --> 00:41:37,432 [bill_mcguire]: you know that's just ever he's not going to say oh all right then we 991 00:41:37,553 --> 00:41:40,043 [bill_mcguire]: believe you let's do it i mean why would you do that 992 00:41:41,495 --> 00:41:42,538 [zaza]: at the end professor 993 00:41:42,597 --> 00:41:42,818 [bill_mcguire]: yah 994 00:41:42,618 --> 00:41:44,082 [zaza]: mc guire could you offer us 995 00:41:44,226 --> 00:41:44,247 [bill_mcguire]: h 996 00:41:44,443 --> 00:41:45,666 [zaza]: any sort of glimmer of 997 00:41:45,837 --> 00:41:46,118 [bill_mcguire]: oh 998 00:41:45,847 --> 00:41:48,332 [zaza]: hope wherever 999 00:41:48,247 --> 00:41:48,268 [bill_mcguire]: i 1000 00:41:48,392 --> 00:41:51,387 [zaza]: you can find it if you can find it but let's pretend you can find 1001 00:41:51,467 --> 00:41:51,527 [zaza]: it 1002 00:41:53,988 --> 00:41:59,136 [bill_mcguire]: well i mean you know it's happening too slowly but if i look around me 1003 00:41:59,316 --> 00:42:02,482 [bill_mcguire]: here where i live in in the peak dishes in england 1004 00:42:02,603 --> 00:42:02,623 [zaza]: i 1005 00:42:03,003 --> 00:42:08,932 [bill_mcguire]: i mean my house is powered by buy a mess i've got solar panels the 1006 00:42:08,942 --> 00:42:09,023 [zaza]: ay 1007 00:42:08,993 --> 00:42:13,801 [bill_mcguire]: rest of our trusty comes from a green energy tariff drive electric car when i 1008 00:42:13,881 --> 00:42:17,006 [bill_mcguire]: go down to the station in a minute to get a train i'll drive past 1009 00:42:17,146 --> 00:42:19,899 [bill_mcguire]: wind farms none of that would have been possible 1010 00:42:19,742 --> 00:42:20,580 [zaza]: yeah 1011 00:42:20,141 --> 00:42:25,880 [bill_mcguire]: ten years ago so there is change changes happening and there has been an enormous 1012 00:42:25,940 --> 00:42:30,965 [bill_mcguire]: amount of change that just needs to be accelerated far far more so that we 1013 00:42:31,005 --> 00:42:32,466 [bill_mcguire]: can actually tackle the emergency 1014 00:42:33,071 --> 00:42:38,460 [zaza]: all right if i i forgot about this before but i think you mentioned in 1015 00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:42,026 [zaza]: the book that a really fast way that we could kind of at least 1016 00:42:41,979 --> 00:42:43,107 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 1017 00:42:42,126 --> 00:42:47,012 [zaza]: buy ourselves some time would be to care methane emissions right 1018 00:42:46,948 --> 00:42:47,210 [bill_mcguire]: oh yeah 1019 00:42:48,093 --> 00:42:49,195 [zaza]: how would that work and 1020 00:42:49,198 --> 00:42:49,341 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 1021 00:42:49,355 --> 00:42:53,519 [zaza]: why would that be kind of easier or something that we could do relatively quickly 1022 00:42:55,667 --> 00:42:58,912 [bill_mcguire]: well me than is eighty six times more effective 1023 00:42:58,680 --> 00:42:59,280 [zaza]: yeah 1024 00:42:58,972 --> 00:43:02,638 [bill_mcguire]: at warming the atmosphere than calm dioxide but it stays in the atmosphere 1025 00:43:02,340 --> 00:43:03,180 [zaza]: yeah 1026 00:43:02,698 --> 00:43:06,685 [bill_mcguire]: for only about twenty years or so doesn't hang around as long as calm dioxide 1027 00:43:06,765 --> 00:43:12,815 [bill_mcguire]: stays out the centrally so if we can dramatically cut metaneemissions from agriculture 1028 00:43:12,270 --> 00:43:12,531 [zaza]: oh 1029 00:43:12,935 --> 00:43:16,161 [bill_mcguire]: from flaring of gas gas installatin this sort 1030 00:43:16,170 --> 00:43:17,220 [zaza]: oh 1031 00:43:16,201 --> 00:43:20,027 [bill_mcguire]: of thing it could make a very big difference in the short term you know 1032 00:43:20,087 --> 00:43:21,149 [bill_mcguire]: maybe pull pull 1033 00:43:21,152 --> 00:43:21,173 [zaza]: i 1034 00:43:21,209 --> 00:43:25,276 [bill_mcguire]: the temperature down by half a degree or so or reduce the rate of climate 1035 00:43:25,296 --> 00:43:29,563 [bill_mcguire]: of the temperature by that much now co twenty six in glasgow last year and 1036 00:43:30,004 --> 00:43:34,337 [bill_mcguire]: a lot of countries came together and said we're going to cut emissions by thirty 1037 00:43:34,377 --> 00:43:39,486 [bill_mcguire]: percent mtainemission by thirty per cent but there's no monitoring of that there's no legal 1038 00:43:39,686 --> 00:43:42,691 [bill_mcguire]: framework and it didn't include the biggest 1039 00:43:42,448 --> 00:43:42,468 [zaza]: a 1040 00:43:42,791 --> 00:43:48,699 [bill_mcguire]: met producers so it isn't really that good but me then is still 1041 00:43:48,562 --> 00:43:48,644 [zaza]: ah 1042 00:43:48,759 --> 00:43:53,884 [bill_mcguire]: there as a low hanging fruit as it's called something that can be tackled very 1043 00:43:53,984 --> 00:43:56,486 [bill_mcguire]: quickly so you know there should be focus on that 1044 00:43:57,021 --> 00:44:00,689 [zaza]: and and how would we slash maintain which industry is used in the most how 1045 00:44:00,709 --> 00:44:01,992 [zaza]: would we just like curb 1046 00:44:01,977 --> 00:44:01,997 [bill_mcguire]: m 1047 00:44:02,052 --> 00:44:04,198 [zaza]: it immediately what would we have to do 1048 00:44:04,917 --> 00:44:09,424 [bill_mcguire]: well it's oil and gas i mean you know oil oil wells will flare off 1049 00:44:09,450 --> 00:44:10,140 [zaza]: yeah 1050 00:44:09,785 --> 00:44:13,010 [bill_mcguire]: they'll burn any meat then it comes out and just burn it so 1051 00:44:13,121 --> 00:44:13,263 [zaza]: yeah 1052 00:44:13,151 --> 00:44:16,015 [bill_mcguire]: it enter the atmosphere which is not what we want to see 1053 00:44:16,190 --> 00:44:16,311 [zaza]: oh 1054 00:44:16,476 --> 00:44:18,199 [bill_mcguire]: so oil and gas installations 1055 00:44:18,690 --> 00:44:19,320 [zaza]: oh 1056 00:44:18,940 --> 00:44:23,388 [bill_mcguire]: need to take the need to take the most action and agriculture as well i 1057 00:44:23,428 --> 00:44:27,535 [bill_mcguire]: mean the more we move away from mass production of meat 1058 00:44:27,570 --> 00:44:27,831 [zaza]: oh 1059 00:44:27,995 --> 00:44:31,792 [bill_mcguire]: particularly as in the lower men levels of agriculture 1060 00:44:31,820 --> 00:44:32,002 [zaza]: they're 1061 00:44:31,832 --> 00:44:32,133 [bill_mcguire]: will be 1062 00:44:32,102 --> 00:44:34,881 [zaza]: parting strain into the atmosphere 1063 00:44:34,997 --> 00:44:35,438 [bill_mcguire]: exactly 1064 00:44:35,082 --> 00:44:35,482 [zaza]: like right 1065 00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:37,342 [bill_mcguire]: i was being polite 1066 00:44:37,846 --> 00:44:42,357 [zaza]: but i'm not all right so actually eating less 1067 00:44:42,370 --> 00:44:42,531 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 1068 00:44:42,437 --> 00:44:45,147 [zaza]: meat would also be kind of viable on an individual level 1069 00:44:47,010 --> 00:44:48,172 [bill_mcguire]: yeah but even a global 1070 00:44:48,240 --> 00:44:48,280 [zaza]: of 1071 00:44:48,252 --> 00:44:48,492 [bill_mcguire]: scare 1072 00:44:48,361 --> 00:44:48,583 [zaza]: course 1073 00:44:48,593 --> 00:44:52,060 [bill_mcguire]: a cutting way back on meat would be fantastic because you could re forest those 1074 00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,945 [bill_mcguire]: areas and get a sort of wind wind situation 1075 00:44:54,430 --> 00:44:56,153 [zaza]: right at the beginning of our 1076 00:44:56,157 --> 00:44:58,017 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 1077 00:44:56,193 --> 00:45:01,722 [zaza]: conversation we mentioned climate doomarism as it's called the feeling of utter hopelessness that 1078 00:45:01,707 --> 00:45:01,867 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 1079 00:45:01,782 --> 00:45:05,869 [zaza]: we can feel when trying to digest the gravity of the state we're in you 1080 00:45:05,889 --> 00:45:06,309 [zaza]: know kind of 1081 00:45:06,447 --> 00:45:07,151 [bill_mcguire]: oh 1082 00:45:06,690 --> 00:45:09,895 [zaza]: saying to ourselves part of my friend i just said that i'm not polite like 1083 00:45:10,096 --> 00:45:11,598 [zaza]: if it's that bad fuck it let's 1084 00:45:11,577 --> 00:45:11,881 [bill_mcguire]: oh 1085 00:45:11,658 --> 00:45:13,542 [zaza]: just watch it all burn let's see what 1086 00:45:13,551 --> 00:45:13,572 [bill_mcguire]: m 1087 00:45:13,602 --> 00:45:19,001 [zaza]: happens if we you know keep business as usual what's your remedy against this attitude 1088 00:45:22,229 --> 00:45:26,075 [bill_mcguire]: well i mean for anybody who has kids that would be an insane 1089 00:45:26,130 --> 00:45:26,331 [zaza]: oh 1090 00:45:26,135 --> 00:45:27,077 [bill_mcguire]: attitude for a start 1091 00:45:27,630 --> 00:45:28,920 [zaza]: oh 1092 00:45:27,678 --> 00:45:32,846 [bill_mcguire]: obviously because they would like the world to be something that their children were built 1093 00:45:32,987 --> 00:45:33,508 [bill_mcguire]: surviving 1094 00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:34,320 [zaza]: oh 1095 00:45:35,451 --> 00:45:40,399 [bill_mcguire]: but there's always hope this is a point i mean every point one degree c 1096 00:45:40,780 --> 00:45:45,367 [bill_mcguire]: is important so even if ultimately we don't keep the global apis temprated low one 1097 00:45:45,548 --> 00:45:50,035 [bill_mcguire]: point five maybe we can stop it at one point six or one point seven 1098 00:45:50,336 --> 00:45:53,441 [bill_mcguire]: either of those are better than two two and a half or two point eight 1099 00:45:53,501 --> 00:45:56,746 [bill_mcguire]: which is what we're on track for at the moment so there's always hope in 1100 00:45:56,786 --> 00:46:01,194 [bill_mcguire]: thee also need to act and the more the temporary goes up the more urgent 1101 00:46:01,274 --> 00:46:02,275 [bill_mcguire]: it is that we act so 1102 00:46:02,342 --> 00:46:02,362 [zaza]: i 1103 00:46:02,676 --> 00:46:09,047 [bill_mcguire]: you know i would suggest to people to focus their efforts on activism brother the 1104 00:46:09,208 --> 00:46:12,523 [bill_mcguire]: one sitting in the bar drinking a whole bowl of whiskey or whatever 1105 00:46:13,382 --> 00:46:16,086 [zaza]: oh damn because that was my plan for this weekend 1106 00:46:15,807 --> 00:46:16,068 [bill_mcguire]: yah 1107 00:46:17,068 --> 00:46:19,973 [zaza]: so but thank you honestly thank you so much 1108 00:46:19,966 --> 00:46:20,067 [bill_mcguire]: yah 1109 00:46:19,993 --> 00:46:20,754 [zaza]: for taking the time 1110 00:46:20,757 --> 00:46:21,018 [bill_mcguire]: oh 1111 00:46:20,934 --> 00:46:22,998 [zaza]: this is this was an extremely necessary 1112 00:46:22,717 --> 00:46:22,838 [bill_mcguire]: yep 1113 00:46:23,038 --> 00:46:24,761 [zaza]: conversation urge 1114 00:46:24,657 --> 00:46:24,760 [bill_mcguire]: yeah 1115 00:46:24,861 --> 00:46:30,675 [zaza]: everybody to read this book again hothouse earth and inhabitants guide where can people get 1116 00:46:31,116 --> 00:46:32,278 [zaza]: your book professor macquire 1117 00:46:34,129 --> 00:46:38,156 [bill_mcguire]: you can well you can buy it in all good book shops or all online 1118 00:46:38,236 --> 00:46:43,324 [bill_mcguire]: book shops it's very easy to find so it shouldn't be difficult anywhere on the 1119 00:46:43,364 --> 00:46:43,905 [bill_mcguire]: planet i think 1120 00:46:43,860 --> 00:46:43,960 [zaza]: all 1121 00:46:43,965 --> 00:46:44,005 [bill_mcguire]: at 1122 00:46:44,020 --> 00:46:44,201 [zaza]: right 1123 00:46:44,045 --> 00:46:44,406 [bill_mcguire]: the moment 1124 00:46:44,762 --> 00:46:47,388 [zaza]: do you have any social media that people can follow 1125 00:46:47,967 --> 00:46:53,711 [bill_mcguire]: yeah yes on twitter mainly at prof bill maguire you can follow 1126 00:46:53,580 --> 00:46:53,980 [zaza]: perfect 1127 00:46:53,751 --> 00:46:53,992 [bill_mcguire]: me out 1128 00:46:54,321 --> 00:46:58,728 [zaza]: again thank you so much and i hope we do this again in the future 1129 00:46:58,848 --> 00:46:59,890 [zaza]: and this time i mean 1130 00:47:00,057 --> 00:47:00,261 [bill_mcguire]: oh 1131 00:47:00,071 --> 00:47:05,139 [zaza]: next time with a bit better news than this time but fingers crossed a right 1132 00:47:05,558 --> 00:47:05,759 [bill_mcguire]: yes 1133 00:47:06,325 --> 00:47:07,191 [zaza]: thank you again thank 1134 00:47:07,058 --> 00:47:07,341 [bill_mcguire]: that would 1135 00:47:07,231 --> 00:47:07,432 [zaza]: you so 1136 00:47:07,382 --> 00:47:07,443 [bill_mcguire]: be 1137 00:47:07,473 --> 00:47:07,614 [zaza]: much 1138 00:47:07,483 --> 00:47:10,328 [bill_mcguire]: great very welcome bye