Latest / Pod Save America / “Doompolling!”
Transcript
- 0:20Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
- 0:22Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
- 0:24Speaker 1: On today's show, the great poll freakout of 2022 has begun.
- 0:29Speaker 1: Democrats debate their closing message. Congressman Tim Ryan stops by
- 0:33Speaker 1: to talk about his Ohio Senate race. And later, we
- 0:36Speaker 1: look back at some debate highlights of the last few
- 0:38Speaker 1: weeks in a new game where Dan and I will
- 0:40Speaker 1: be challenged to create some of our own. Exciting.
- 0:45Speaker 2: I had honestly forgotten we were doing that.
- 0:47Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. But first, in case you missed it,
- 0:50Speaker 1: Rachel Maddow recently joined me on offline to talk about
- 0:53Speaker 1: her fantastic new podcast called Ultra, which tells the story
- 0:58Speaker 1: of of an all-but-forgotten right-wing plot to overthrow American democracy
- 1:02Speaker 1: in 1940. Dan, have you listened to this podcast yet?
- 1:06Speaker 2: It's in my queue, John. It's in my queue.
- 1:08Speaker 1: I was talking about Ultra, not Offline. I mean, I
- 1:11Speaker 1: assume you listen to Offline the second it comes out
- 1:13Speaker 1: every Sunday.
- 1:15Speaker 2: I oftentimes do. I have to admit, I've been very busy.
- 1:18Speaker 2: I have neither listened to the Rachel Maddow episode of
- 1:21Speaker 2: Offline or Ultra, but they are both on my list.
- 1:23Speaker 1: Good. Ultra is fantastic. You would love it.
- 1:26Speaker 2: The NBA season has started. Fantasy basketball has started. My
- 1:30Speaker 2: podcasts are very busy, but I'm getting there.
- 1:32Speaker 1: I thought especially about you and Tommy, who love historical fascism.
- 1:37Speaker 1: Usually it's books.
- 1:38Speaker 2: I think what you mean is we love learning. We
- 1:41Speaker 2: love learning. We love information delivered in something other than
- 1:44Speaker 2: 280 characters.
- 1:46Speaker 1: That is true. Also, don't miss the newest episode of Hysteria.
- 1:49Speaker 1: Aaron and Alyssa were here. They were in Los Angeles,
- 1:53Speaker 1: joined by mayoral candidate Karen Bast. along with the panelists
- 1:57Speaker 1: you know and love. They broke down all the latest
- 1:59Speaker 1: news and politics live from Sirius XM in Hollywood. You
- 2:03Speaker 1: can listen to new episodes of Hysteria every Thursday wherever
- 2:06Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. It was great to see Alyssa.
- 2:09Speaker 1: She came to town. It was fun.
- 2:10Speaker 2: It seemed exciting.
- 2:11Speaker 1: It was very cool. All right, let's get to the news.
- 2:15Speaker 1: We are a little less than three weeks out from
- 2:17Speaker 1: Election Day, which means it's time for all of us
- 2:20Speaker 1: to freak out about polls. And boy, did we get
- 2:23Speaker 1: a doozy from the New York Times that changed the
- 2:25Speaker 1: narrative about the midterms in a way that only a
- 2:28Speaker 1: Nate could do. Republicans now lead among likely voters on
- 2:33Speaker 1: the generic ballot by 49 to 45, erasing the Democrats'
- 2:38Speaker 1: one-point lead from the Times September poll by making big
- 2:41Speaker 1: gains with independents and opening up a huge lead among
- 2:44Speaker 1: people who said the economy or inflation is their top issue,
- 2:48Speaker 1: which was most people in the polls. The economy and
- 2:50Speaker 1: inflation were the top issues for Republicans, independents, and Democrats.
- 2:55Speaker 1: Republicans now have, as of today, a slight lead of
- 2:59Speaker 1: just 0.1% in the 538 polling average, down from a
- 3:03Speaker 1: Democratic lead of 1.5% about a month ago. Dan, what
- 3:08Speaker 1: do you think? Should people cancel their New York Times subscriptions?
- 3:12Speaker 1: Should we unskew the poll? What's going on here? What
- 3:14Speaker 1: should we do?
- 3:16Speaker 3: Both?
- 3:17Speaker 4: No.
- 3:18Speaker 1: I think....
- 3:20Speaker 2: Is this poll right? Is any poll right? Who knows?
- 3:24Speaker 2: It's an existential question. Only the election will tell us.
- 3:28Speaker 2: Let's put aside the margin here for a second.
- 3:31Speaker 1: Always put aside the margin. Always put aside the margin.
- 3:36Speaker 2: Are we going to do anything differently? Are we going
- 3:38Speaker 2: to stop canvassing?
- 3:39Speaker 1: We'll get to that. We'll get to that.
- 3:41Speaker 2: I mean, we, not Democratic ad makers, like the people
- 3:44Speaker 2: trying to organize this election.
- 3:46Speaker 5: Right.
- 3:47Speaker 2: What I think is interesting about this poll is I
- 3:49Speaker 2: do think the stuff underneath the margin tells a story
- 3:53Speaker 2: about how the political playing field has shifted since this
- 3:56Speaker 2: summer when Democrats had a pretty strong advantage in the
- 3:59Speaker 2: Senate races and were doing much better in the House
- 4:01Speaker 2: races than I think people suspected. So in this poll,
- 4:05Speaker 2: the number of voters who list the economy slash inflation
- 4:08Speaker 2: as their top issue has gone up eight points since
- 4:11Speaker 2: the previous poll. Republicans are winning those voters by like
- 4:15Speaker 2: 30 points.
- 4:15Speaker 4: Mm-hmm.
- 4:16Speaker 2: Over the last month or so, the economy has become
- 4:20Speaker 2: a bigger issue in this race than it had been
- 4:22Speaker 2: over the summer. And that is not the product of
- 4:26Speaker 2: brilliant ads or Fox News. It is reality. Gas prices
- 4:31Speaker 2: went down for like 100 days. Then they started going
- 4:34Speaker 2: up again. They have since started to come down recently,
- 4:36Speaker 2: but they did spike in September. Inflation remained stubbornly high.
- 4:40Speaker 2: I think there was a thought that it might be
- 4:41Speaker 2: starting to come down. It did not last month. And
- 4:45Speaker 2: This is the reality. And it's not just the New
- 4:46Speaker 2: York Times poll. In the Navigator poll, you had an
- 4:50Speaker 2: increase by 27 points of voters who said that they
- 4:53Speaker 2: were now paying more for gas than they were before
- 4:57Speaker 2: since the last poll a few weeks ago, and a
- 4:59Speaker 2: 14-point drop in the number of voters who said the
- 5:02Speaker 2: economy was getting better. So the economy has become more central.
- 5:05Speaker 2: That is not good for Democrats, which leads us to
- 5:10Speaker 2: a conversation we'll probably have later in the pod about
- 5:11Speaker 2: what to do about it. But The playing field has shifted.
- 5:15Speaker 2: It does not mean we're doomed. It does not mean
- 5:17Speaker 2: it's over. But we are operating in a slightly worse
- 5:21Speaker 2: political environment than we were a month and a half ago.
- 5:24Speaker 1: Yeah, and we're in a particularly shitty economic spot because
- 5:29Speaker 1: the Fed has begun to hike interest rates to try
- 5:32Speaker 1: to tamp down inflation. That has not tamped down inflation yet.
- 5:36Speaker 1: But now we have higher interest rates for people looking
- 5:38Speaker 1: to borrow money and take a mortgage out.
- 5:42Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, it's really, it's fucking beautiful. It's we,
- 5:45Speaker 2: you're supposed to either have inflation or you're supposed to
- 5:48Speaker 2: either have inflation fears or recession fears. And right now we.
- 5:50Speaker 1: Have both living through inflation and still, and the recession
- 5:55Speaker 1: fears loom. So that's what we got right now. There
- 5:57Speaker 1: was also, by the way, a Monmouth poll out this,
- 5:59Speaker 1: just this morning, Thursday morning that shows Republicans up six
- 6:02Speaker 1: in the, in the generic ballot, 50 to 44. Again,
- 6:05Speaker 1: If you want to put the margin aside, the overall
- 6:07Speaker 1: trend is what's important here. And the trend is, as
- 6:10Speaker 1: we could tell from the 538 polling average, moving towards
- 6:13Speaker 1: the Republicans as we have a couple weeks. There was another,
- 6:17Speaker 1: just in case you're not depressed enough, there was another
- 6:19Speaker 1: depressing follow-up story about this Times poll the next day
- 6:22Speaker 1: with the headline, voters see democracy in peril, but saving
- 6:27Speaker 1: it isn't a priority. The piece says that 71% of
- 6:31Speaker 1: all voters believe democracy is at risk. So it's like, oh,
- 6:33Speaker 1: that's great, right? But only 7% identified that as the
- 6:38Speaker 1: most important problem facing the country. The poll also says
- 6:42Speaker 1: that about 39% of registered voters are open to supporting
- 6:45Speaker 1: candidates who reject the 2020 election results. That includes 37%
- 6:49Speaker 1: of independent voters and even 12% of Democratic voters. What
- 6:56Speaker 1: the hell do you think is going on there?
- 6:57Speaker 2: I didn't find that story depressing.
- 7:00Speaker 1: Oh, you found that inspiring?
- 7:02Speaker 5: No.
- 7:03Speaker 2: I found it fucking clarifying.
- 7:05Speaker 6: Yeah, no.
- 7:05Speaker 2: I think it's really important, and it's a reminder that
- 7:10Speaker 2: we make politics way more complicated than we have to.
- 7:13Speaker 2: So there are a couple of points to take away
- 7:15Speaker 2: from this thing. One is it's just yet another reminder,
- 7:19Speaker 2: a point President Obama made to us last weekend, that
- 7:22Speaker 2: people's personal financial situation trumps everything else. And before everyone yells,
- 7:28Speaker 2: greedy– about these people, that is bullshit. For rich people
- 7:33Speaker 2: who are freaking out about having to pay slightly higher taxes, yes,
- 7:36Speaker 2: that's greed. For the average person just trying to make
- 7:40Speaker 2: it by to put food on the table, put some
- 7:42Speaker 2: money away so their kids can go to college, have
- 7:44Speaker 2: a vacation, any of those things, that's life. That's always
- 7:48Speaker 2: going to trump esoteric arguments about political systems in democracy.
- 7:54Speaker 2: It just always will and probably always should. Now, we
- 7:57Speaker 2: can quibble correctly that many of these voters, as we
- 8:00Speaker 2: talked about in the Times poll, are picking the wrong
- 8:02Speaker 2: party to address that situation. But instead of yelling at
- 8:06Speaker 2: them and calling them stupid and greedy for that, let's
- 8:08Speaker 2: figure out why they feel that way and then try
- 8:10Speaker 2: to fix it.
- 8:11Speaker 1: Yeah. And many of these same voters, and I talked
- 8:14Speaker 1: to them, I don't know how many times, people are
- 8:17Speaker 1: probably sick of hearing me talking about the wilderness focus groups,
- 8:19Speaker 1: but just about every single voter I spoke to was
- 8:22Speaker 1: outraged about the Dobbs decision and And is worried that
- 8:26Speaker 1: Republicans are going to move to ban abortion nationwide and
- 8:29Speaker 1: even more states than they already have. But what they
- 8:32Speaker 1: talk about constantly and what they like stay awake thinking
- 8:37Speaker 1: about is that they cannot afford to live on their own.
- 8:40Speaker 1: Like if you heard some of the people, especially in
- 8:42Speaker 1: Las Vegas, who were talking to me, the working class
- 8:45Speaker 1: Latinos I talked to in Vegas, talking about like being
- 8:49Speaker 1: evicted out of their house and then having to like
- 8:51Speaker 1: pay for motel rooms for three months. At a couple
- 8:54Speaker 1: hundred dollars a month because they couldn't even find a
- 8:58Speaker 1: rental place that they could afford. And then they're living
- 9:00Speaker 1: in their cars. Like, it's fucking real for people. This
- 9:03Speaker 1: is not just like the Ohio family that complained about
- 9:07Speaker 1: the extra gallon of the extra couple of dollars they
- 9:10Speaker 1: were paying for a gallon of milk. And then everyone
- 9:12Speaker 1: shit on them on fucking Twitter. Like, these are people
- 9:14Speaker 1: who are really struggling. And you're right. They are wrong.
- 9:17Speaker 1: They are wrong that Republicans would give them a better
- 9:21Speaker 1: life than Democrats would. under Republican rule versus Democratic rule.
- 9:25Speaker 1: They are 100% wrong about that. But it is on
- 9:27Speaker 1: us to persuade them of that. And if we don't
- 9:29Speaker 1: think it's on us, then we can all fucking just
- 9:32Speaker 1: quit now and sit home. That's fine too, if we
- 9:35Speaker 1: want to. But if we want to save democracy and
- 9:39Speaker 1: we want to make sure there aren't abortion bans and
- 9:41Speaker 1: we want to make sure that people are making more
- 9:43Speaker 1: and can afford housing, then we have to persuade people.
- 9:46Speaker 1: We have to do it. We cannot take a shortcut.
- 9:49Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple more points on this poll. It's also
- 9:53Speaker 2: an argument that we should stop polling about democracy. It's
- 9:57Speaker 2: a word that is a Rorschach test for people. For
- 10:00Speaker 2: partisans on the left, the threats to democracy correctly represent
- 10:06Speaker 2: growing authoritarianism, voter suppression, everything Trump stands for. On the right,
- 10:12Speaker 2: threats to democracy incorrectly are about stolen elections and voter fraud.
- 10:18Speaker 2: And for a lot of people in the middle, it
- 10:20Speaker 2: is correctly, to an extent, about corruption in government. And
- 10:24Speaker 2: so we're asking a question that the answer tells us
- 10:27Speaker 2: nothing if it is brought. We don't really control what
- 10:30Speaker 2: pollsters ask, but we do control how we talk about it.
- 10:33Speaker 2: And this is yet another reminder that all of us,
- 10:36Speaker 2: and I don't even want to do a find through
- 10:39Speaker 2: my message box archives to the word democracy, but we
- 10:43Speaker 2: are talking about something using a word to describe a
- 10:46Speaker 2: a situation, a system, and a problem that does not
- 10:50Speaker 2: mean a lot to a lot of people. And we
- 10:51Speaker 2: have to get away from talking about democracy in and
- 10:55Speaker 2: of itself and talk more about how the specific threats
- 10:58Speaker 2: to democracy threaten the things that matter in people's lives.
- 11:01Speaker 2: That includes abortion. That includes Social Security and Medicare. That
- 11:04Speaker 2: includes contraception, et cetera. And we are stuck in this
- 11:09Speaker 2: overly online resistance Twitter podcast lingua franca that doesn't matter
- 11:16Speaker 2: to voters. And it's a problem. And we should take that,
- 11:19Speaker 2: like this poll should tell us that.
- 11:22Speaker 1: And I think what's most frustrating about it is that
- 11:25Speaker 1: you and I have known that people feel this way
- 11:28Speaker 1: about government for as long as we've been in politics.
- 11:31Speaker 2: And our brains are broken.
- 11:33Speaker 4: I know.
- 11:33Speaker 1: And just to drill down on the numbers that you mentioned,
- 11:36Speaker 1: especially with the largest group of folks in the middle,
- 11:41Speaker 1: So 71%, as we mentioned, said that democracy is under
- 11:44Speaker 1: threat in that poll. So 71% of people. But only
- 11:47Speaker 1: 17% of those voters talked about that threat in terms
- 11:51Speaker 1: of Republicans, Trump, political violence, election denial, authoritarianism, all the
- 11:56Speaker 1: stuff we talk about all the time. And as you said,
- 11:58Speaker 1: most summarize the threat to democracy as government corruption, government
- 12:02Speaker 1: not working on behalf of ordinary people, too much greed, power,
- 12:05Speaker 1: and money in politics. 68% of all voters said 68%
- 12:10Speaker 1: said the government mainly works to benefit powerful elites rather
- 12:13Speaker 1: than ordinary people. That is the message for Democrats. That
- 12:18Speaker 1: is the fight that we have to wage. A government
- 12:20Speaker 1: that works on behalf of ordinary people. A government that
- 12:24Speaker 1: actually delivers in ways to improve people's lives, that protects
- 12:28Speaker 1: their freedoms, that makes sure that wealthy, powerful elites don't
- 12:32Speaker 1: get to run the government anymore. and that they actually
- 12:34Speaker 1: have to pay their taxes, and they actually have to
- 12:36Speaker 1: contribute to society, and they don't get to just tell
- 12:39Speaker 1: us what to do. Because if we don't make that case,
- 12:42Speaker 1: Republicans are going to keep making that case about elites,
- 12:45Speaker 1: but their elites are going to be people in the media,
- 12:47Speaker 1: and people in academia, and liberals, and all this other bullshit.
- 12:51Speaker 1: That's what they do. We have to have our elites
- 12:54Speaker 1: as villains, and it has to be the fucking super
- 12:56Speaker 1: fucking rich people that are friends with Republicans that are
- 12:59Speaker 1: gouging consumers and trying to run Congress.
- 13:04Speaker 2: That finding is so important because it helps explain why
- 13:10Speaker 2: in 2008, Barack Obama beat every member of the Democratic
- 13:13Speaker 2: establishment to win the nomination, and why in 2016, Donald
- 13:16Speaker 2: Trump beat every member of the Republican establishment to win
- 13:20Speaker 2: the nomination. And it also explains why every two years,
- 13:24Speaker 2: we throw out our Congress.
- 13:27Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, everyone thinks that Barack Obama won in
- 13:29Speaker 1: 2008 because of all the rhetoric about unity, and I
- 13:32Speaker 1: think that was important to some people, some voters, but
- 13:35Speaker 1: like we ran relentlessly against Washington corruption, special interest, money
- 13:41Speaker 1: in politics, constantly, constantly.
- 13:44Speaker 2: And he was an outsider. Therefore he had credibility about
- 13:47Speaker 2: being able to do something about it. Just like Trump.
- 13:49Speaker 2: Different approach.
- 13:51Speaker 1: Different approach. A bit different.
- 13:52Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 13:53Speaker 1: But yes. Um, All right, let's focus on what Democrats
- 13:56Speaker 1: and the rest of us can actually control between now
- 13:57Speaker 1: and Election Day. And let's start with the most powerful
- 14:00Speaker 1: Democrat in the country, President Biden. This week, he did
- 14:04Speaker 1: two things worth noting. First, he gave a speech where
- 14:06Speaker 1: he promised that if Democrats win the House and add
- 14:09Speaker 1: two more Democratic senators, the first bill he'll sign in
- 14:12Speaker 1: January is legislation to protect abortion access nationwide. Then he
- 14:16Speaker 1: announced the release of 15 million barrels of oil from
- 14:19Speaker 1: the U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve in an attempt to lower
- 14:21Speaker 1: gas prices. which, as you mentioned, are now declining for
- 14:25Speaker 1: the second week after rising for about a month. Let's
- 14:29Speaker 1: start with Biden's speech on abortion. He said a version
- 14:32Speaker 1: of this before, though the promise that it will be
- 14:35Speaker 1: his very first bill that he signs in January is new.
- 14:39Speaker 1: Why do you think he did this now? And what
- 14:40Speaker 1: do you think about that strategy?
- 14:43Speaker 2: It's pretty clear in looking at the polls that we've
- 14:47Speaker 2: just been talking about that over the summer, abortion was
- 14:50Speaker 2: a huge driving force in the political conversation and as
- 14:54Speaker 2: a motivating factor in people's votes. That has dropped just
- 14:58Speaker 2: as time has gone on since the Dobbs decision. And
- 15:02Speaker 2: this summer, in the wake of that decision, there's this
- 15:04Speaker 2: wave of Republican efforts to, particularly because it happened in
- 15:07Speaker 2: the middle Republican primary season, to push these even more
- 15:10Speaker 2: extreme policies. They have quickly realized that it's better to, uh,
- 15:17Speaker 2: not talk about it in advance, just get in power
- 15:19Speaker 2: and then take away everyone's freedom. And so it has
- 15:22Speaker 2: dropped this issue. So we always, whenever we nerd out,
- 15:26Speaker 2: we talk about issue salience and what is on people's minds.
- 15:29Speaker 2: And Biden is trying to re-inject abortion back into the conversation.
- 15:33Speaker 2: So in that sense, it is a good strategy. It
- 15:36Speaker 2: is important because the economy has risen here, which is
- 15:41Speaker 2: not an argument to stop talking about abortion. because you
- 15:45Speaker 2: don't just pick one issue. You talk about multiple issues,
- 15:47Speaker 2: but getting abortion back in the conversations is important. And
- 15:51Speaker 2: this was a pretty clever way to do it by
- 15:52Speaker 2: coming by, you know, there's like a handful of like
- 15:54Speaker 2: news hooks that you have when you work in communications.
- 15:58Speaker 2: And one of them is the first bill I will send.
- 16:00Speaker 2: And they pulled that one out and it worked.
- 16:02Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 16:03Speaker 1: I mean, look, I think there's going to be a
- 16:04Speaker 1: whole group of voters who are cross pressured in that
- 16:08Speaker 1: they are very much against the Republican position on abortion
- 16:13Speaker 1: and But they are very pissed off with inflation and
- 16:16Speaker 1: think that by voting for Republicans that they can change that.
- 16:20Speaker 1: And I think what Republicans are trying to tell those
- 16:22Speaker 1: voters is actually don't really worry about our position on abortion.
- 16:25Speaker 1: It's not as extreme as you think. And also vote
- 16:28Speaker 1: for us because you're pissed about inflation. And I think
- 16:30Speaker 1: what Democrats clearly need to say is voting for Republicans
- 16:33Speaker 1: is not going to fix inflation. It's going to guarantee
- 16:36Speaker 1: that there are abortion bans and inflation will continue to rise.
- 16:40Speaker 1: And if you're afraid about abortion bans, vote for Democrats
- 16:42Speaker 1: because they will actually do more to fight inflation and
- 16:45Speaker 1: protect abortion access. Like that's sort of the message there.
- 16:48Speaker 1: On the strategic petroleum reserve release, do you think that
- 16:50Speaker 1: can make a difference? And is there anything else Biden
- 16:52Speaker 1: can do on either gas prices or inflation between now
- 16:57Speaker 1: and election day?
- 16:59Speaker 2: It can make a difference. Is it going to make
- 17:01Speaker 2: a gigantic difference?
- 17:03Speaker 5: No.
- 17:03Speaker 2: Does it continue to help counteract the various market pressures
- 17:09Speaker 2: that come from the war in Ukraine? and the various
- 17:13Speaker 2: shenanigans the Saudis are pulling, yes, it is helpful. It's
- 17:17Speaker 2: a market signal. If it keeps it flat to where
- 17:21Speaker 2: it is now or prevents the gas prices to start
- 17:25Speaker 2: ticking back up, that is a good thing to do.
- 17:28Speaker 2: The messaging is, as it always is with complicated government decisions,
- 17:33Speaker 2: a little complex because at the same time, You're releasing
- 17:37Speaker 2: the SPRO, but you're also, which is the terrible government
- 17:40Speaker 2: term for Strategic Petroleum Reserve. I don't even know what
- 17:42Speaker 2: the O is, but whatever. You're releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- 17:47Speaker 2: And you're also touting the fact that gas prices have
- 17:49Speaker 2: been going down for two weeks. Those are a little
- 17:51Speaker 2: bit at odds. But from a substantive perspective, this will
- 17:55Speaker 2: help a little bit, at least. It certainly can't hurt.
- 17:57Speaker 1: All right. So that's Biden. Say you're running a Democratic
- 18:02Speaker 1: campaign right now. Uh, you've already canceled your New York
- 18:05Speaker 1: times subscription because of the poll and probably something that
- 18:08Speaker 1: Maggie Haberman wrote. Um, but now, now you have to
- 18:11Speaker 1: figure out how to help your candidate actually win. You know,
- 18:14Speaker 1: the economy inflation are the most important issues for voters
- 18:17Speaker 1: right now. Uh, democracy and abortion have receded as issues.
- 18:22Speaker 1: Maybe abortion has, I don't know if democracy was ever
- 18:24Speaker 1: a forefront for people, at least not in the way
- 18:27Speaker 1: that we talk about it. Um, What do you talk
- 18:29Speaker 1: about and run ads about and hopefully make news about
- 18:32Speaker 1: between now and Election Day? Is it more abortion, more economy,
- 18:35Speaker 1: more Republican extremism, more legislative accomplishments? There was a new
- 18:38Speaker 1: story this week that Democrats aren't really running on the
- 18:42Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act. What do you think about all this?
- 18:45Speaker 2: Well, I think, as per usual, this conversation about what
- 18:51Speaker 2: the Democratic closing argument should be has devolved into a
- 18:55Speaker 2: series of straw men and false choices, where it's, are
- 18:59Speaker 2: we going to stop, never utter the word abortion again,
- 19:03Speaker 2: and focus on the economy? Or if we just say
- 19:08Speaker 2: abortion a thousand times, we will win. No one thinks
- 19:11Speaker 2: that that's not how campaigns work. You have multiple issues
- 19:15Speaker 2: you talk about in a campaign, on the stump, in ads,
- 19:18Speaker 2: in social media. And In the best campaigns, all of
- 19:22Speaker 2: those issues buttress the larger narrative. Democrats have spent the
- 19:26Speaker 2: last nine months or so focusing on Republican extremism. That
- 19:31Speaker 2: has worked for us because even if the polls are
- 19:33Speaker 2: closer now, they are still better than anyone thought they
- 19:36Speaker 2: would be a year ago, just given the state of
- 19:39Speaker 2: the economy, the historical headwinds that presidents face in their
- 19:45Speaker 2: first midterm, all of the above. So you don't want
- 19:49Speaker 2: to undo all of that work by just walking away
- 19:53Speaker 2: from your extremism message. But as we develop our closing argument,
- 19:56Speaker 2: I think we have to layer in a strong populist
- 20:00Speaker 2: attack on Republican economic policies that ties it to the
- 20:04Speaker 2: extremist narrative. And this is not– we're not going to
- 20:06Speaker 2: tout our accomplishments as good as they are because in
- 20:10Speaker 2: a time in which inflation is high, we will seem
- 20:13Speaker 2: out of touch with voters if we are talking about
- 20:15Speaker 2: a bill we pass that hasn't gone into effect or
- 20:17Speaker 2: stimulus checks that we sent over a year ago. That
- 20:21Speaker 2: is not enough. What we have to recognize is people's
- 20:27Speaker 2: votes on the economy are not about policies. If they were,
- 20:31Speaker 2: Democrats would always win. Because if you give people a
- 20:34Speaker 2: menu of policy positions, they pick almost every single Democratic
- 20:38Speaker 2: one over a Republican one. That is the paradox of
- 20:40Speaker 2: American politics. Voters like democratic policies on the economy, but
- 20:45Speaker 2: they trust Republicans more. And so what we have– the
- 20:48Speaker 2: way you address this, you have to erode trust in
- 20:51Speaker 2: Republicans as people who will fight for you in this
- 20:54Speaker 2: time of inflation. And that is to go– the best
- 20:56Speaker 2: way to do that, and there's a whole bunch of
- 20:58Speaker 2: polling from folks like Stan Greenberg and Data for Progress
- 21:00Speaker 2: that show this, which is connect Republicans to greedy corporations
- 21:05Speaker 2: who are profiting off inflation. That is the Republicans' great–
- 21:09Speaker 2: that is their Achilles heel on the economy is that
- 21:12Speaker 2: voters associate them with people who fight for corporations and
- 21:15Speaker 2: the wealthy. They also in this environment think wealthy, greedy
- 21:19Speaker 2: corporations are very much to blame for inflation. Marry those two.
- 21:22Speaker 2: Layer in some additional attacks on their proposals to cut
- 21:25Speaker 2: Social Security and Medicare to pay for more tax cuts
- 21:29Speaker 2: for the wealthy and corporations. And you have the opportunity
- 21:31Speaker 2: to just– you just have to knock a few points
- 21:34Speaker 2: off that Republican advantage on the economy and we can
- 21:37Speaker 2: win these elections.
- 21:39Speaker 1: I was talking to Faz Shakir about this for Wilderness,
- 21:44Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, former campaign manager. And he was making the
- 21:49Speaker 1: point that it's tough to tout the Inflation Reduction Act
- 21:52Speaker 1: when a lot of the provisions that help people with
- 21:54Speaker 1: costs don't go into effect for a couple of years.
- 21:56Speaker 1: But he said, I do think that Democrats can gain
- 22:00Speaker 1: credibility for the fight that they picked there. And I
- 22:03Speaker 1: think if you frame it as like, Democrats took on
- 22:06Speaker 1: drug companies to get people cheaper prescriptions. And if you
- 22:09Speaker 1: give us a bigger majority, we will go after them again.
- 22:12Speaker 1: We're picking a fight with big corporations. They're using inflation
- 22:15Speaker 1: as an excuse to gouge consumers. You give us a
- 22:17Speaker 1: bigger majority, we'll make them pay. And then do all
- 22:21Speaker 1: the things that you just said, which is then erode
- 22:23Speaker 1: Republican credibility on their ability to sort of take on
- 22:27Speaker 1: these special interests that are gouging consumers and use... sort
- 22:30Speaker 1: of the fights that we've picked as Democrats over the
- 22:32Speaker 1: last couple of years to give ourselves a little credibility that, hey,
- 22:35Speaker 1: we're in there taking on these fights and we'll do
- 22:37Speaker 1: it again.
- 22:37Speaker 2: I think that's right. But I think there's just one
- 22:39Speaker 2: more like turn there, which is Republicans voted against all
- 22:42Speaker 2: those things.
- 22:43Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
- 22:43Speaker 5: That's right.
- 22:44Speaker 2: Like who sided with, like there was a big fight
- 22:46Speaker 2: over the cost of prescription drugs. Who was on which side, right?
- 22:51Speaker 2: Democrats on the side of seniors, Republicans side of big pharma.
- 22:53Speaker 2: And you can go down the line on a bunch
- 22:54Speaker 2: of different issues like that. I think that's very helpful.
- 22:57Speaker 2: And we live, operate in a era of negative partisanship.
- 23:00Speaker 2: And so we are going to have more success framing
- 23:03Speaker 2: the other side than our side. But you're right. You
- 23:06Speaker 2: and Faz are correct. You do have to give yourselves
- 23:07Speaker 2: a little credibility for those things by the things we've
- 23:09Speaker 2: done and the fights we've picked.
- 23:11Speaker 1: There have also been a lot of viral debate moments
- 23:13Speaker 1: over the last week or so. How much do you
- 23:14Speaker 1: think these debates matter that are happening all over the
- 23:18Speaker 1: place this month? And how do campaigns make them matter?
- 23:22Speaker 2: Well– I can't, I haven't looked at a lot of
- 23:25Speaker 2: state constitutions, but it is true that the candidate with
- 23:27Speaker 2: the most RTs wins, right? Like that's how it works.
- 23:33Speaker 1: That is, yeah, no, that is, that is the way
- 23:35Speaker 1: that we run elections here.
- 23:36Speaker 2: Okay, perfect. Well then we are golden. No, I think,
- 23:40Speaker 2: I mean, we're just in this very interesting world of
- 23:44Speaker 2: national political hobbyism where more, I would bet more people
- 23:49Speaker 2: outside of the state of Texas watch the Beto O'Rourke,
- 23:53Speaker 2: Greg Abbott debates than people in Texas. I think that's
- 23:55Speaker 2: certainly true about the Tim Ryan debate. It will probably
- 23:59Speaker 2: be true about the Oz Fetterman debate. Having said that,
- 24:03Speaker 2: these are incredibly close races. Everything matters. You don't get
- 24:06Speaker 2: that many opportunities to be in front of a group
- 24:08Speaker 2: of people to draw significant news coverage that might actually
- 24:11Speaker 2: break through in a campaign. And so a debate is
- 24:13Speaker 2: a moment. And I think this is why we have
- 24:16Speaker 2: these viral moments. And you know this because you were
- 24:18Speaker 2: always so involved in President Obama's debate prep, is particularly
- 24:22Speaker 2: in a Senate race or a governor's race, very few
- 24:24Speaker 2: people watch the debate live. Presidential race, a lot of
- 24:27Speaker 2: millions of people do watch it. But the moments carry on.
- 24:32Speaker 2: So you're really focused more on delivering a handful of
- 24:34Speaker 2: moments that will extend beyond the debate, will get shared
- 24:37Speaker 2: on social, get press coverage, than some person who watches
- 24:41Speaker 2: it like a boxing match, the whole thing, scorecard, one
- 24:44Speaker 2: point for Oz, one point for Federer. That's not how
- 24:46Speaker 2: it works. It's what are people going to see from it,
- 24:48Speaker 2: and it's going to be the things that travel afterwards.
- 24:50Speaker 2: And so that's why We are like inundated with moments.
- 24:53Speaker 2: We have debate strategies focused around moments because of low viewership.
- 24:56Speaker 2: And we have an array of national partisans fascinated by
- 25:01Speaker 2: these races who watch them online, then sharing those moments.
- 25:04Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 25:05Speaker 1: The people who are watching the entire debate tend to
- 25:07Speaker 1: be people who have already made up their mind and are,
- 25:11Speaker 1: as you said, political hobbyists like ourselves. And it's the
- 25:14Speaker 1: moments that the casual observer of news and politics who
- 25:17Speaker 1: still may vote, that's what they're seeing. All right, so
- 25:20Speaker 1: if you don't love polls or you don't believe in
- 25:23Speaker 1: the polls, we actually now are starting to have some
- 25:26Speaker 1: early vote numbers. So we can start reading those tea leaves.
- 25:31Speaker 1: After only five days of early voting in Georgia, turnout
- 25:34Speaker 1: has already broken records. It's 85% higher than it was
- 25:38Speaker 1: at this time in 2018. And voters of color have
- 25:42Speaker 1: also increased their vote share since the last midterms, according
- 25:45Speaker 1: to Target Smart and their modeling. What do you think
- 25:48Speaker 1: about that? Good sign or way too early to be
- 25:50Speaker 1: a good sign?
- 25:51Speaker 2: It's not a bad sign. I mean, that's actually important.
- 25:56Speaker 2: Does this mean that Stacey Abrams and Raphael Warnock are
- 25:58Speaker 2: going to win? No, it does not mean that. But
- 26:01Speaker 2: we want higher turnout and we want higher turnout among
- 26:05Speaker 2: voters of color in Georgia in particular. And so if
- 26:08Speaker 2: we are reaching those sorts of levels, that'd be great.
- 26:10Speaker 2: There is a long way to go here. We have
- 26:12Speaker 2: to remember that early voters overwhelmingly Democratic now. And so
- 26:17Speaker 2: I think we would be deeply concerned if it was underperforming.
- 26:20Speaker 2: So this is more like the dog that didn't bark yet.
- 26:24Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 26:25Speaker 1: And I'm also– I was saying this because Elijah was
- 26:28Speaker 1: also hopeful about this.
- 26:30Speaker 2: And I said– And you were just like, crush those hopes.
- 26:32Speaker 4: Well, no.
- 26:33Speaker 1: I was saying like before 2016, I feel like it
- 26:35Speaker 1: was like if there's high turnout, you think, okay, Democrats
- 26:39Speaker 1: are doing well. Now because– Republicans turn out so much
- 26:44Speaker 1: and they've shattered turnout records on their side since 2016,
- 26:47Speaker 1: sort of hard to tell where the vote is coming from.
- 26:51Speaker 1: I do think that if Target Smart's modeling is right
- 26:55Speaker 1: and it's a higher share of voters, if voters of
- 26:57Speaker 1: color have also increased their share, that's obviously a good sign.
- 27:01Speaker 1: But just higher turnout in general, if you don't know
- 27:04Speaker 1: where or who it's coming from, it's sort of hard
- 27:06Speaker 1: to guess who that helps.
- 27:08Speaker 2: It's going to be very different on a state-by-state basis.
- 27:11Speaker 2: Georgia is actually a state where I think higher turnout
- 27:13Speaker 2: will benefit Democrats. Wisconsin, not so much. Arizona, real open question. Texas,
- 27:19Speaker 2: real open question. And what's interesting, you can take this
- 27:22Speaker 2: for what it's worth, but there's an Echelon Insights, which
- 27:24Speaker 2: is a Republican data firm. They do turnout demographic modeling.
- 27:30Speaker 2: And one of their conclusions on 2020 was that higher
- 27:34Speaker 2: turnout is what made the race closer for Republicans than
- 27:39Speaker 2: anyone thought. And it was particularly because it was higher
- 27:41Speaker 2: turnout among Republican-leaning Latinos in particular. So these are not
- 27:46Speaker 2: people who switched from Clinton to Trump. They are Hispanic
- 27:50Speaker 2: voters who had not previously turned out, who turned out
- 27:52Speaker 2: in this election. And so it's a little, there is
- 27:55Speaker 2: no far and fast rule here.
- 27:56Speaker 1: And if you don't want to believe Echelon Insights on
- 27:58Speaker 1: that point, equis. uh, research found this exact same thing, uh,
- 28:03Speaker 1: from Carlos Odeo, who's been on this podcast many times. Um, okay.
- 28:07Speaker 2: So still, I think Georgia, good news. Like let's try
- 28:09Speaker 2: to end like that as a positive sign. It should
- 28:11Speaker 2: be encouragement to get involved. So let's, let's try to let's,
- 28:15Speaker 2: let's end this section at least on that point.
- 28:17Speaker 1: Yeah. And not just like good news that you can
- 28:19Speaker 1: sit with, like you said, encouragement to get involved. Georgia
- 28:22Speaker 1: is one of the many States that has early vote
- 28:25Speaker 1: happening right now. Uh, which means that, You have the
- 28:28Speaker 1: power to help a voter cast their ballot today. One
- 28:32Speaker 1: great way of doing it, as we've been saying, votesaveamerica.com
- 28:35Speaker 1: slash volunteer. We will give you plenty of things to
- 28:38Speaker 1: do if you sign up. Phone banks, text banks, all
- 28:43Speaker 1: kinds of stuff. And you can help voters in early
- 28:46Speaker 1: voting states make their plans to vote right now. Another
- 28:49Speaker 1: thing you can do is donate to our Every Last
- 28:51Speaker 1: Vote Fund to help fund rides to the polls. So
- 28:53Speaker 1: in 2020, the Collective Education Fund was able to provide
- 28:56Speaker 1: over 100,000 free round-trip Lyft rides to get voters to
- 29:00Speaker 1: the polls in states like Georgia that really made a difference.
- 29:03Speaker 1: So you can go to votesaveamerica.com slash everylastvote where your
- 29:06Speaker 1: donation today can directly help a voter get to the polls.
- 29:10Speaker 1: And as you all know, every vote is going to
- 29:12Speaker 1: matter in this election, in the next couple weeks. If
- 29:16Speaker 1: you make calls, if you donate... If you help voters
- 29:19Speaker 1: make plans, if you can go to VoteSafeAmerica.com, you can
- 29:22Speaker 1: see what's on your ballot. You can help friends see
- 29:24Speaker 1: what's on their ballot, if they're confused, if they're scared.
- 29:28Speaker 1: There's so much we can do. And I think as
- 29:31Speaker 1: we learned in 2020, as we learned in 2020, these
- 29:34Speaker 1: states are incredibly close. These races are going to be close.
- 29:37Speaker 1: Whether we win them or we lose them, it'll be... close.
- 29:41Speaker 1: And that means that everything we do between now and
- 29:43Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks really, really matters. So votesaveamerica.com,
- 29:46Speaker 1: get out there.
- 29:47Speaker 2: I think the most important thing to take away from
- 29:49Speaker 2: this polling conversation is that we could win every one
- 29:54Speaker 2: of these key races or we could lose every one
- 29:55Speaker 2: of them. And what we do over the next three
- 29:57Speaker 2: weeks will determine that.
- 29:59Speaker 1: That's right. That's right. All right. When we come back,
- 30:02Speaker 1: we will talk to one of the candidates in a
- 30:04Speaker 1: very tight race, Tim Ryan. We'll talk to him about
- 30:07Speaker 1: the Ohio Senate race right after this. Joining us now
- 30:20Speaker 1: is the Democrat fighting to become Ohio's next senator. Tim Ryan,
- 30:23Speaker 1: welcome to the pod.
- 30:24Speaker 5: Hey, thanks for having me.
- 30:26Speaker 1: My wife is from Cincinnati. She and my in-laws are
- 30:30Speaker 1: very excited that you're on the pod today because they
- 30:34Speaker 1: have been telling me that you have a really great
- 30:36Speaker 1: chance to win long before it was cool to do so.
- 30:41Speaker 5: Very good. I'm no Joe Burrow, but I guess it's
- 30:44Speaker 5: settled for.
- 30:44Speaker 3: Me, right?
- 30:45Speaker 6: Okay, that'll work.
- 30:47Speaker 1: So I've heard a lot of takes about why a
- 30:49Speaker 1: state that voted for Barack Obama twice went on to
- 30:52Speaker 1: vote for Donald Trump twice by a fairly significant margin.
- 30:56Speaker 1: What's yours?
- 30:58Speaker 5: Economics.
- 30:59Speaker 3: I think people in Ohio consistently vote their pocketbook and
- 31:03Speaker 3: they vote for the candidate who they think is best
- 31:05Speaker 3: in it, increase their economic security, which is why Sherrod
- 31:08Speaker 3: Brown's been able to win here.
- 31:12Speaker 5: Three times.
- 31:13Speaker 3: And that's why we're going to win, too, because we
- 31:15Speaker 3: have such an economic-focused campaign for working class people, not
- 31:20Speaker 3: just college-educated people. And that's really important here. That's why
- 31:24Speaker 3: Trump won. He connected with those voters. That's why Barack
- 31:27Speaker 3: Obama won against McCain and then against Mitt Romney. And
- 31:31Speaker 3: you guys know better than anybody the ads you were running.
- 31:34Speaker 3: Those are very economic centric ads.
- 31:36Speaker 5: And that's why I won. And that's again, that's why
- 31:38Speaker 5: we're going to do it, too.
- 31:40Speaker 1: So you gave an interview with The Washington Post this
- 31:41Speaker 1: week where you criticized National Democrats for not doing more
- 31:44Speaker 1: to support your campaign. You said there's frustration among rank
- 31:47Speaker 1: and file Democrats that the leadership doesn't quite understand where
- 31:51Speaker 1: we want this party to be. Where do you think
- 31:53Speaker 1: the party should be?
- 31:55Speaker 3: Laser-like focused on working class people who don't have a
- 31:59Speaker 3: college degree. I mean, we saw it again today in
- 32:02Speaker 3: the paper where there's a national Democratic consultant saying North
- 32:08Speaker 3: Carolina is a better state because there's more college educated people.
- 32:12Speaker 3: I just think that's what absolutely pisses me off about
- 32:15Speaker 3: the Democratic Party nationally is that there's somehow a higher
- 32:19Speaker 3: priority for these college educated voters and a lack of
- 32:23Speaker 3: resolve to actually go to the working class communities like
- 32:26Speaker 3: we've done around Ohio and recognize that the Republicans haven't
- 32:31Speaker 3: done shit for them, like absolutely abandon them. They show
- 32:35Speaker 3: up at the local red party you know county party
- 32:38Speaker 3: dinner uh and speak at the you know that that
- 32:41Speaker 3: banquet that they have but they don't do anything for
- 32:44Speaker 3: them they don't do broadband they don't do infrastructure and
- 32:47Speaker 3: and so we got to show up there and make
- 32:49Speaker 3: the case and i just think giving up on a
- 32:51Speaker 3: place like ohio is not where we want to be
- 32:54Speaker 3: because we can win here and i think build you
- 32:57Speaker 3: know a robust uh party here.
- 32:59Speaker 1: Too let me let me just drill down on that
- 33:02Speaker 1: because i've been banging this drum for a while myself
- 33:06Speaker 1: Do you think it's, is it economic messaging? Are there
- 33:09Speaker 1: policies that you think the party should be pursuing that
- 33:12Speaker 1: we haven't, that you'll want to if you get into
- 33:14Speaker 1: the Senate? Is it about breaking through the media environment
- 33:18Speaker 1: because the media tends to not cover economic issues and
- 33:22Speaker 1: debates as much as they do cultural debates?
- 33:25Speaker 5: Yeah, all of the above.
- 33:27Speaker 3: The clickbait on economic issues aren't always as good as
- 33:35Speaker 3: some kind of conflict around a culture war issue.
- 33:39Speaker 5: And that's part of the problem, too.
- 33:41Speaker 3: But look, we're leaders. You're running for the United States Senate.
- 33:44Speaker 3: You're running for a statewide office or a federal position.
- 33:47Speaker 5: You're a leader.
- 33:47Speaker 3: You need to You need to show some leadership. And
- 33:50Speaker 3: that's what we're trying to do here. And I do
- 33:52Speaker 3: think it's a huge messaging issue. I still laugh at the,
- 33:56Speaker 3: you know, the old Jimmy Carter aide who said that,
- 33:58Speaker 3: you know, Democrats show up at a gunfight with a
- 34:00Speaker 3: 10-point policy plan. You know, I just think that accurately
- 34:04Speaker 3: describes sometimes how we talk about things and really resonate
- 34:09Speaker 3: and try to connect with working class people. And we're
- 34:13Speaker 3: trying to show the way here a little bit. And,
- 34:15Speaker 3: you know, again, just to read in the paper this morning, That,
- 34:19Speaker 3: you know, we're going all in on North Carolina because
- 34:21Speaker 3: they got more college educated folks.
- 34:24Speaker 5: Is just it just frosts me, man.
- 34:26Speaker 3: And then it's part of the problem that we got
- 34:29Speaker 3: to overcome if we're going to be a really strong,
- 34:32Speaker 3: sustainable national party.
- 34:34Speaker 1: Let's talk about your MAGA opponent from Silicon Valley, J.D. Vance.
- 34:40Speaker 1: He said the other day that the reason the polls
- 34:41Speaker 1: are so close is because voters are wrongly identifying you
- 34:45Speaker 1: as a moderate diet version of Vance. What's your reaction
- 34:49Speaker 1: to that?
- 34:51Speaker 5: He's so frustrated.
- 34:53Speaker 3: He wants me to be a socialist. He wants me
- 34:57Speaker 3: to do... I tell him, we don't do socialism in Youngstown, Ohio.
- 35:00Speaker 3: That's just not how we roll.
- 35:03Speaker 5: And so.
- 35:04Speaker 3: He's very frustrated by the fact that I did agree
- 35:07Speaker 3: with Trump, too, when he renegotiated NAFTA. I did agree
- 35:11Speaker 3: with Trump when he had a firmer stance on China.
- 35:15Speaker 3: I didn't agree with necessarily how he implemented all of it,
- 35:18Speaker 3: but definitely agreed that we need to have a firmer stance.
- 35:21Speaker 5: Stance on that.
- 35:22Speaker 3: I supported General Mattis to become Secretary of Mattis because
- 35:25Speaker 3: he's exactly the kind of guy we need to be
- 35:28Speaker 3: Secretary of Defense. So I have these issues and he's
- 35:30Speaker 3: just he's so frustrated by it. And, you know, so
- 35:34Speaker 3: but he has no agenda himself. He's got two donors.
- 35:37Speaker 3: This is what's really resonating in Ohio. He has two donors.
- 35:40Speaker 3: He's got Peter Thiel, who now wants to become a
- 35:43Speaker 3: citizen of Malta. He gave him $ 15 million. And Mitch McConnell,
- 35:47Speaker 3: who gave him $ 40 million to totally rescue his campaign.
- 35:51Speaker 3: We have 350,000 donors. 95% of those contributions are under $ 100.
- 35:57Speaker 3: And anybody who wants to go to timperoh.com to drop
- 36:01Speaker 3: us a few bucks to keep the fires burning here
- 36:03Speaker 3: would be very, very helpful.
- 36:05Speaker 5: But that's the big contrast here.
- 36:07Speaker 3: And so he's trying to pigeonhole me into somebody that
- 36:10Speaker 3: I'm not. And Ohioans want an independent guy. And just say,
- 36:13Speaker 3: lastly and quickly, I've taken on my own party multiple times.
- 36:20Speaker 3: And he got called an ass kisser by Donald Trump
- 36:23Speaker 3: on the stage and then gets back up on the
- 36:25Speaker 3: stage afterwards. He walks up to the microphone and he says,
- 36:29Speaker 3: aren't we having a great time here tonight? And I
- 36:32Speaker 3: just don't know anybody I grew up with. And I
- 36:35Speaker 3: don't know anybody I know that would like get insulted,
- 36:38Speaker 3: have their dignity stripped from them and then get back
- 36:42Speaker 3: up on stage to kiss his ass again right there afterwards.
- 36:46Speaker 5: So that's what we're dealing with here.
- 36:48Speaker 1: Except Ted Cruz and actually most of the Republican Party.
- 36:51Speaker 1: I would. There's been a few of them.
- 36:55Speaker 6: All right.
- 36:55Speaker 1: So Vance also said the other day at a stop
- 36:58Speaker 1: that if he's elected, he'll threaten to shut down the
- 37:00Speaker 1: government unless Biden finishes Trump's border wall. I know that
- 37:04Speaker 1: immigration policy is one area you've been critical of the
- 37:07Speaker 1: Biden administration on. What would you push for if you're
- 37:10Speaker 1: in the Senate on immigration?
- 37:12Speaker 5: Yeah, I think.
- 37:14Speaker 3: Again, JD has invested into dozens of companies that have.
- 37:19Speaker 5: Foreign workers there. So this is just another example of
- 37:23Speaker 5: how fraudulent the guy is. He also tries to have
- 37:26Speaker 5: a tough stance on China, and he's invested in a
- 37:28Speaker 5: couple of companies in China.
- 37:29Speaker 3: Again, across the board, fraudulence. But I think comprehensive plan,
- 37:33Speaker 3: like any pragmatic plan. Strategy would have a strong border.
- 37:38Speaker 3: There's 8 billion people in the world. A lot of
- 37:40Speaker 3: them want to live in the United States. You've got
- 37:42Speaker 3: to have a strategy to know who's coming in and out.
- 37:45Speaker 3: So you do need a strong border. You do need
- 37:47Speaker 3: more border patrol. I think we need to go all
- 37:49Speaker 3: in on technology. I started last year the Border Technology Caucus.
- 37:54Speaker 3: to figure out how do we take the technology that
- 37:56Speaker 3: we have in this country and utilize it to try
- 37:59Speaker 3: to keep fentanyl out of here, to try to keep
- 38:01Speaker 3: heroin out and all these things that are destructive to
- 38:04Speaker 3: our society. And how do we have a big hearted
- 38:09Speaker 3: approach when it comes to refugees? Certainly don't want to
- 38:11Speaker 3: be separating kids from their babies. And how do we
- 38:13Speaker 3: have an orderly process to get people in? If you're
- 38:16Speaker 3: here undocumented, you pay a fine, pay some back taxes,
- 38:20Speaker 3: pass a background check, and then come into the United
- 38:22Speaker 3: States and help us build this great country up like
- 38:26Speaker 3: immigrants have always done. So I think that's a policy
- 38:29Speaker 3: that probably 80% of the people would think is a
- 38:32Speaker 3: pretty pragmatic idea.
- 38:34Speaker 1: Yeah. President Obama talked about that policy quite a few
- 38:36Speaker 1: times over the eight years he was in the White House.
- 38:38Speaker 1: So you've also criticized Biden's decision to cancel student loan
- 38:42Speaker 1: debt because Ohio has a lot of people who didn't
- 38:45Speaker 1: go to college. I'm totally with you that those folks
- 38:48Speaker 1: deserve relief too. But I also think like Ohioans are
- 38:52Speaker 1: also more likely to have outstanding student loan debt than
- 38:54Speaker 1: people almost anywhere in the country. Nearly 90% of relief
- 38:58Speaker 1: dollars go to people earning less than $ 75, 000 a year.
- 39:01Speaker 1: And almost half of all borrowers didn't finish college. So
- 39:05Speaker 1: they are some of those folks in Ohio who don't
- 39:07Speaker 1: have college degrees. Why do you think those folks don't
- 39:09Speaker 1: deserve relief?
- 39:11Speaker 3: I'm very sympathetic. We are still paying off my wife's
- 39:15Speaker 3: college loans. And I see what's going on with eight, nine, 10, 12,
- 39:20Speaker 3: and sometimes higher percent interest rates at its user.
- 39:24Speaker 5: It's wrong.
- 39:26Speaker 3: And I think there's a way to help those people too.
- 39:29Speaker 3: I think if, the best step now is to allow
- 39:31Speaker 3: people to negotiate down the interest rate to 1% or
- 39:35Speaker 3: 2% with a significant amount of money back in their pockets,
- 39:38Speaker 3: or they can start paying the principal down. My big
- 39:41Speaker 3: issue really is that we don't do anything to solve
- 39:44Speaker 3: the problem. There's no There's no provisions in here to say, well,
- 39:48Speaker 3: we're going to do this this one time because we're
- 39:51Speaker 3: actually going to get college costs under control.
- 39:55Speaker 5: When, in fact, there's nothing in here to do that.
- 39:57Speaker 3: So we're going to drop $ 300 billion on this, completely
- 40:01Speaker 3: eliminate the deficit reduction part of the Inflation Reduction Act,
- 40:05Speaker 3: and we're going to be back in the same spot
- 40:06Speaker 3: in a few more years. And again, going back to
- 40:09Speaker 3: the whole idea of like going all in with the
- 40:12Speaker 3: burdens of people who went to college versus the people who,
- 40:16Speaker 3: you know, bought a truck or, you know, tools or,
- 40:19Speaker 3: you know, whatever to go into the construction business or
- 40:22Speaker 3: the construction trades.
- 40:24Speaker 5: They need help, too.
- 40:25Speaker 3: And I think we've got to start having policies that
- 40:27Speaker 3: are going to help people across the board.
- 40:30Speaker 1: How do you bring the price of college down? How
- 40:32Speaker 1: do you how do you get to the source of
- 40:33Speaker 1: this problem?
- 40:35Speaker 3: Obviously, we'd have to look into it, but I think
- 40:37Speaker 3: something along the lines of, look, if you want federal
- 40:40Speaker 3: student loans and you want your students to be eligible
- 40:44Speaker 3: for that, you can't increase costs past the rate of inflation.
- 40:48Speaker 3: put some mechanism in there that, of course, they're going
- 40:51Speaker 3: to want all these people to take out loans to
- 40:53Speaker 3: go to college, but you can't keep jacking up the price.
- 40:56Speaker 3: Some mechanism like that, and I'm sure we can sit
- 40:58Speaker 3: down with a lot of smart people who could help
- 41:01Speaker 3: us think through that, but there's got to be some
- 41:03Speaker 3: tie to this.
- 41:05Speaker 5: Or we're going to continue.
- 41:06Speaker 3: Even when we increase Pell Grants, well, we increase Pell
- 41:10Speaker 3: Grants and colleges increase college tuition.
- 41:12Speaker 5: That's not a good use of taxpayer money.
- 41:16Speaker 1: All right, you're in the homestretch here. What's your closing
- 41:18Speaker 1: message to the people of Ohio?
- 41:20Speaker 5: Vote for the Ohioan. I'm way more Ohioan than J.D. Vance.
- 41:24Speaker 3: You know, he's bought and paid for by Mitch McConnell
- 41:26Speaker 3: and billionaires before he even walks into the Senate.
- 41:29Speaker 5: And I'm not.
- 41:30Speaker 3: I'm for the working class people. And the guy's super extreme. Like,
- 41:34Speaker 3: he raised money for the guys who stormed the Capitol
- 41:36Speaker 3: on January 6th. He's running around with Ron DeSantis who
- 41:39Speaker 3: wants to ban books. He's running around with Lindsey Graham
- 41:42Speaker 3: who wants a national abortion ban. He says rape is inconvenient. Like,
- 41:45Speaker 3: he's way out of the mainstream for Ohioans. People here
- 41:49Speaker 3: in Ohio are going to vote for the pragmatic, economic-focused
- 41:53Speaker 3: Ohio win. And we're asking people to help out. Go
- 41:55Speaker 3: to TimProH.com and send us a couple of bucks. We're
- 41:58Speaker 3: going to shock the world, man. We're going to win.
- 42:00Speaker 3: And you heard it here first.
- 42:02Speaker 6: All right.
- 42:02Speaker 1: I like that. I like that attitude. Tim Ryan, thank
- 42:04Speaker 1: you so much for joining the pod. And good luck
- 42:06Speaker 1: in this last couple of weeks.
- 42:07Speaker 5: Thanks for having me.
- 42:19Speaker 1: All right, before we go, we want to talk about
- 42:21Speaker 1: some of those extra special debate moments we were talking
- 42:24Speaker 1: about earlier from the last few weeks. And we're going
- 42:26Speaker 1: to do it with Crooked Media's comedy extraordinaire, Hallie Kiefer.
- 42:31Speaker 6: Oh, hello. Thank you for having me.
- 42:33Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us. This is very exciting.
- 42:35Speaker 6: Thank you.
- 42:35Speaker 7: I am very nervous, but I feel like it's going
- 42:37Speaker 7: to go well. And if not, I'll be dragged into
- 42:39Speaker 7: an office and berated, I'm sure.
- 42:41Speaker 1: Which is what usually happens to you.
- 42:42Speaker 6: Exactly. 100%. And I well deserve it. Yeah.
- 42:48Speaker 7: But yeah, the midterm elections, and especially the final candidate debates,
- 42:52Speaker 7: have been filled with so much negativity. But we here
- 42:54Speaker 7: at Crooked know how important it is to reach across
- 42:56Speaker 7: the aisle, even if the aisle is made of lava,
- 42:59Speaker 7: and the hand being offered across it is a snake
- 43:01Speaker 7: that has tried to seize voting machines before. Luckily, debate
- 43:06Speaker 7: moderators across the country never fail to remind us that
- 43:09Speaker 7: no matter how far apart we are, we can still
- 43:11Speaker 7: be little sweetie pies, which is why they are ending
- 43:14Speaker 7: debates by asking each candidate to say something nice about
- 43:17Speaker 7: their opponent, Let's take a listen.
- 43:19Speaker 3: Other than thanking them for being willing to serve in office,
- 43:22Speaker 3: what is one nice thing you can say about your opponent?
- 43:26Speaker 1: I've thought about this question.
- 43:27Speaker 4: I think Tim Walz is an affable individual who has
- 43:32Speaker 4: a wonderful smile.
- 43:33Speaker 6: I think it's really cool that your daughter's on The Voice.
- 43:35Speaker 6: We should all be cheering for her.
- 43:37Speaker 2: I like your suits. You look good in them. And
- 43:40Speaker 2: I think that's awesome.
- 43:41Speaker 3: And I hope that after the election we can come
- 43:44Speaker 3: to terms and maybe you could take me suit shopping.
- 43:47Speaker 6: Mr.
- 43:47Speaker 5: Johnson.
- 43:48Speaker 4: I mean, likewise, I appreciate the fact that Lieutenant Governor
- 43:51Speaker 4: Barnes had loving parents, a school teacher, father at work,
- 43:54Speaker 4: third shift. So he had a good upbringing. I guess
- 43:58Speaker 4: what puzzles me about that is with that upbringing, why
- 44:01Speaker 4: is he turned against America? I mean, why does he
- 44:03Speaker 4: find the founding of America awful? Somehow, we did not.
- 44:09Speaker 2: We said something admirable.
- 44:11Speaker 6: Powerful stuff.
- 44:13Speaker 1: Whose daughter's on The Voice?
- 44:15Speaker 6: That would be, so that is Dan McKee's daughter.
- 44:19Speaker 4: Oh.
- 44:20Speaker 6: Was just on in September. I haven't seen it. Good
- 44:23Speaker 6: luck to her.
- 44:23Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 44:25Speaker 6: Let us know how she did.
- 44:26Speaker 1: Very exciting.
- 44:27Speaker 2: Who's the person with the good suits?
- 44:29Speaker 7: That would be, I don't know. Tim Walz has the
- 44:32Speaker 7: wonderful smile. Dan McKee's daughter is on The Voice. That
- 44:36Speaker 7: would be J.B.
- 44:38Speaker 6: Pritzker.
- 44:39Speaker 3: Oh, yeah.
- 44:39Speaker 2: From Illinois.
- 44:40Speaker 1: He can afford them.
- 44:41Speaker 6: So that was Darren Bailey telling Pritzker that he had
- 44:43Speaker 6: good suits. Huh.
- 44:45Speaker 2: I've seen a lot of J.B. Pritzker, and that's never
- 44:46Speaker 2: been my first take, but what do I know?
- 44:49Speaker 6: I think he was just probably looking around, and he
- 44:51Speaker 6: was like, that lamp is good, or something. He's just like,
- 44:54Speaker 6: what do you got on?
- 44:54Speaker 1: A suit?
- 44:55Speaker 6: It's that.
- 44:57Speaker 7: And in the spirit of that, of those kind words,
- 45:00Speaker 7: John and Dan, we're going to play a game. We're
- 45:02Speaker 7: going to play a clip of a heinous Republican candidate,
- 45:06Speaker 7: and I'm going to need you both to dig deep.
- 45:08Speaker 6: And say something nice about them. Are you ready?
- 45:11Speaker 1: This is so, yes. Let's do it.
- 45:13Speaker 6: Okay.
- 45:13Speaker 7: First up, we have Arizona gubernatorial candidate Carrie Lake and
- 45:17Speaker 7: her thoughts on her own election.
- 45:19Speaker 6: Let's play the clip.
- 45:21Speaker 2: Will you accept the results of your election in November?
- 45:26Speaker 6: I'm going to win the election and I will accept
- 45:28Speaker 6: that result.
- 45:29Speaker 2: If you lose, will you accept that?
- 45:31Speaker 6: I'm going to win the election and I will accept
- 45:33Speaker 6: that result.
- 45:34Speaker 7: So again, that is Carrie Lake refusing to commit to
- 45:37Speaker 7: accept the result of the election unless she wins. Gentlemen,
- 45:41Speaker 7: won't you please each say something nice about Carrie Lake?
- 45:44Speaker 1: I would be happy to. I'm going to quote the
- 45:47Speaker 1: Washington Post here, which wrote a lengthy profile on her.
- 45:51Speaker 1: Her sepia toned filters that she uses when she does interviews,
- 45:56Speaker 1: I think are just fantastic. I think it's a nice light.
- 46:00Speaker 1: It's a nice, it's, really softens everything up. Assumes for
- 46:03Speaker 1: the face. Yeah, I wish I could have some of
- 46:05Speaker 1: those here at Crooked Media.
- 46:07Speaker 6: I think we could look into that.
- 46:08Speaker 1: Okay, thank you.
- 46:09Speaker 2: Just get them from the love it or leave it budget.
- 46:13Speaker 6: I mean, seriously. You just put some Vaseline on the camera.
- 46:15Speaker 6: We got plenty of it in the back.
- 46:18Speaker 2: So here's what I would say about former newscaster Carrie Lake.
- 46:25Speaker 2: She reminds me of one of my favorite characters from
- 46:27Speaker 2: one of my favorite movies. Ron Burgundy from Anchorman.
- 46:32Speaker 4: Wow.
- 46:33Speaker 1: Wow.
- 46:34Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 46:34Speaker 1: I guess the other thing we could have said is
- 46:36Speaker 1: we really liked that she supported Barack Obama.
- 46:39Speaker 4: Oh, nice.
- 46:40Speaker 2: That is true. She did support Barack Obama. That's a
- 46:41Speaker 2: great one.
- 46:42Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 46:43Speaker 2: Who knew she was one of the terrorists Barack Obama
- 46:45Speaker 2: was palling around with?
- 46:47Speaker 1: Oh, boy.
- 46:49Speaker 6: So quickly.
- 46:51Speaker 1: Dan really pulled a Ron Johnson on this one.
- 46:55Speaker 7: Speaking of, up next we have Rod Johnson pulling back
- 46:58Speaker 7: the veil on the government's nefarious, covert, anti-Ron Johnson agenda.
- 47:03Speaker 6: Let's roll the clip.
- 47:05Speaker 4: The FBI set me up with a corrupt, with a
- 47:08Speaker 4: corrupt briefing and then leaked that to smear me.
- 47:12Speaker 1: I am, I'm sorry.
- 47:16Speaker 4: He is referring to corruption with the FBI, which I've
- 47:19Speaker 4: been trying to uncover and expose.
- 47:21Speaker 3: All right.
- 47:22Speaker 2: So do we have time for, please, audience, please.
- 47:25Speaker 7: So again, there's Ron Johnson claiming the FBI set him up.
- 47:27Speaker 7: And then just, you know, in case you didn't see
- 47:29Speaker 7: the clip, The audience laughing uproariously at Ron Johnson on
- 47:33Speaker 7: the debate stage. John and Dan, I'd love to hear
- 47:36Speaker 7: something nice about Ron Johnson from both of you.
- 47:38Speaker 1: Dan, you kick this one off.
- 47:40Speaker 2: Way to use your power as the host of the episode.
- 47:43Speaker 1: I went first last time. Yeah, it's fair.
- 47:46Speaker 2: I think it's a lot of people are intentionally funny
- 47:49Speaker 2: in that, but not as many people are unintentionally funny.
- 47:53Speaker 2: And Ron Johnson is unintentional comedy.
- 47:56Speaker 1: I shouldn't have let you go first. Yeah.
- 47:59Speaker 6: A laugh is a laugh.
- 48:00Speaker 1: You know what I mean? I was going to say
- 48:02Speaker 1: that my nice thing about Ron Johnson is that I'm
- 48:04Speaker 1: just grateful to him for all the content.
- 48:06Speaker 3: Wow.
- 48:07Speaker 1: It's really close to what Dan said.
- 48:08Speaker 6: That's true.
- 48:09Speaker 1: And I have nothing else nice about him.
- 48:12Speaker 6: And that's fair. We'll take it.
- 48:15Speaker 7: Next up, of course, we have Marjorie Taylor Greene, her
- 48:17Speaker 7: debate against Marcus Flowers, during which she said all this.
- 48:21Speaker 2: Did Joe Biden win the election, Congresswoman Greene?
- 48:24Speaker 6: Joe Biden is the president of the United States.
- 48:26Speaker 2: Absolutely. But you pushed a big lie that said he
- 48:28Speaker 2: did not win the election. There was election fraud.
- 48:30Speaker 3: And you drove those people to the Capitol on January.
- 48:33Speaker 6: 6th with your lie. We're going to move on.
- 48:36Speaker 7: Josh Roe, it's your turn to ask a question to
- 48:39Speaker 7: Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- 48:40Speaker 2: We have FOIA evidence of proof of election fraud that
- 48:43Speaker 2: came out.
- 48:44Speaker 7: So again, that's Marjorie Taylor Greene saying that her husband...
- 48:47Speaker 7: has proof of election fraud. Let's hope she wins that
- 48:50Speaker 7: in the divorce. Well, gentlemen, I'd love to hear something
- 48:54Speaker 7: nice about Margie Taylor Greene from both of you. And
- 48:56Speaker 7: I think it's only fair, Fabbro, you have to go
- 48:57Speaker 7: first this time.
- 49:04Speaker 1: I appreciate her commitment to exercise.
- 49:08Speaker 2: That's a good one. I was going to make a
- 49:10Speaker 2: CrossFit comment.
- 49:12Speaker 4: Oh, dear.
- 49:12Speaker 6: That's true.
- 49:15Speaker 2: Marjorie Taylor Greene. Vivid imagination.
- 49:18Speaker 4: Okay.
- 49:20Speaker 1: Vivid imagination.
- 49:21Speaker 6: Lake out of the mind. Yes.
- 49:22Speaker 7: And finally, this one is about Nevada GOP Senate candidate
- 49:26Speaker 7: and a former state attorney general, Adam Laxalt, who at
- 49:29Speaker 7: this moment has big Paul Gozer energy in the wake
- 49:31Speaker 7: of this announcement.
- 49:33Speaker 6: Let's play the clip.
- 49:34Speaker 1: Now in his race to unseat incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine
- 49:37Speaker 1: Cortez Masto, today, 14 of Adam Laxalt's relatives came out
- 49:43Speaker 1: in support of his opponent.
- 49:45Speaker 7: So now keep in mind, 14 members of his own
- 49:48Speaker 7: family couldn't do what you're about to do. But Dan
- 49:51Speaker 7: and John, I ask you, please say something nice about him.
- 49:54Speaker 7: Someone has to. Dan, I'll let you start.
- 49:57Speaker 2: Oh, man, that is a tough one. Adam Laxalt. What
- 50:01Speaker 2: is positive about Adam Laxalt? He walks for the beat
- 50:07Speaker 2: of his own drummer.
- 50:07Speaker 6: There we go.
- 50:08Speaker 2: Yes.
- 50:09Speaker 1: You went broad.
- 50:09Speaker 6: You had to go broad with it.
- 50:10Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 50:11Speaker 1: I have two things. I thought one Dan was going
- 50:13Speaker 1: to say, uh, he's a Georgetown alum.
- 50:17Speaker 2: That is not, I say this as a Georgetown alum.
- 50:20Speaker 2: It's not really an entirely illustrious list of people.
- 50:24Speaker 1: You, Bradley Cooper, Adam Laxall, all there at the same time.
- 50:27Speaker 6: The trifecta.
- 50:29Speaker 2: Alan Iverson was there.
- 50:30Speaker 1: Alan Iverson too.
- 50:31Speaker 6: Right.
- 50:32Speaker 1: Um, The other thing about Adam Laxalt, which is clear
- 50:35Speaker 1: from what you just said, is he has a really
- 50:37Speaker 1: smart family.
- 50:38Speaker 6: Wow.
- 50:38Speaker 2: Oh, see, that is good.
- 50:40Speaker 6: Raised well. Well, gentlemen, you did a great job, so
- 50:43Speaker 6: thank you so much for playing this. You did a
- 50:45Speaker 6: great job.
- 50:45Speaker 2: Thank you.
- 50:45Speaker 6: This is so fun. Oh, I hope things go well
- 50:47Speaker 6: in the midterms.
- 50:49Speaker 1: Us too.
- 50:50Speaker 2: You went around for the A block.
- 50:51Speaker 7: Listen, I can't wait to hear it again.
- 50:54Speaker 1: Boatsaveamerica.com. Hallie Kiefer, thanks for joining us and playing this game.
- 50:59Speaker 1: Tim Ryan, good luck on the trail. Everyone, go to votesaveamerica.com,
- 51:04Speaker 1: sign up, and do some calls this weekend. We'll see
- 51:06Speaker 1: you next week. Bye, everyone. Pod Save America is a
- 51:13Speaker 1: Crooked Media production. The executive producer is Michael Martinez. Our
- 51:17Speaker 1: senior producer is Andy Gardner-Bernstein. Our producers are Haley Muse
- 51:20Speaker 1: and Olivia Martinez. It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick.
- 51:24Speaker 1: Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis sound engineered the show. Thanks
- 51:27Speaker 1: to Hallie Kiefer, Ari Schwartz, Sandy Gerard, Andy Taft, and
- 51:30Speaker 1: Justine Howe for production support. And to our digital team,
- 51:32Speaker 1: Elijah Cohn, Phoebe Bradford, Milo Kim, and Amelia Montu. Our
- 51:36Speaker 1: episodes are uploaded as videos at youtube.com slash podsaveamerica.