Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Market Crash Continues | Over or Just Beginning?

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Crypto Market Crash Continues | Over or Just Beginning? · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

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Let's get into a bit of a market up date today. Of course we'll
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be breaking down the future of bitcoin and the political landscape at all as it
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all pertains to crypto. You guys are gonna love it. My name is
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Paul Barre. Welcome back into tech path. Before we get started, I
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yourself to tax situation. Always, of course, consult your own texts and
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legal professionals. Out there as you get these things started with this first headline,
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bitcoin ETF's cool as crypto funds post their biggest loss since March. This
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is of course, saying that they shedded six hundred and twenty one million worth
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of assets. There's a couple of points within this. The FEDER reserves hawkish
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stance last week when we looked at the FOMC lowered institutionals investors' confidence as the
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market outflows across all crypto exchange traded products ETPs last week stood at about six
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hundred million, and you look at that, along with a couple other items
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here, investors appear to have lost confidence because of the dot plot. This
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is in reference to the potential for a rate cut. Now. The dot
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plot indicates that the FED may anticipate only one rate cut in twenty twenty four.
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A lot of people still looking for two, even though I think right
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now it's slated one. That's my prediction is that we're going to probably hold
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out at one. Bitcoin ETFs in particular saw net outflows of six hundred and
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twenty one million, so definitely a different time, and I think this is
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part of what we've seen with bitcoin starting to plummet down to around sixty five
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K. Of course, do we see that go further. We'll take a
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look at the charts and go into that a little bit more. Today sixty
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six K bitcoin price now is in critical Five things to know this week.
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Couple of points within this article. I thought we're interesting. Traders and analysts
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are now considering what is the immediate future has in store and whether bulls or
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bears are in control. The biggest and largest crypto currency shedding almost five percent
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after briefly dipping down under sixty five K. So this is the point I
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think that everybody's looking at right now. Can Bitcoin start to move in to
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that sixty two? K Evan and I were on last week. He's looking
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at the potential of a sub sixty I'd love to get you guys's input.
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Let me know down in the comments. Make sure and smash the like button
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because it's one of the ways we get feedback from our audience and really understanding
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what you guys are interested in looking at here on the show. A couple
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of points. It's tears from Kyle Chasse. I think people are a bit
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bored. Biggest mistakes are made. I would agree with that a lot of
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cycles aren't always action packs, and that's kind of the sideways action that we've
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kind of moved into. He says, he's guaranteed you that smart money and
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institutions will keep loading up. Ninety nine percent of people will get shaken out,
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which is typical. These are the typical things. Are you in it
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for a longer haul? And in many cases people might look at this and
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not even think about this as a cycle, but as simply a step in
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the direction of multi cycle investment strategies going forward. So all of that pointing
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into a very interesting market as we go into an election. I'll get in
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some of that here in a second. I do want to go to a
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clip real quick. This clip will get into a little bit more around whether
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or not this bull run is over. Take a look, the Nasdaq has
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been unbelievable, and so is the S and T. Yeah, after like
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bitcoins, not is going to have trouble going higher if there's only one cut
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it's been wanting, you know. Obviously, that's that's why people buy,
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because they think the FED is going to go haul wild to get why is
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it diverging from the Nasdaq? Wow, this is interesting. I know,
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I wrote it up this morning. In fact, yeah, so we've been
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watching bitcoin because the correlation to the NASAQ one hundred has been increasing back to
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levels that we haven't seen since like twenty one, and to me that's interesting.
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It does show that now investors are treating things as a risk asset broadly,
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right, including bitcoin, including equities. So when we see Bitcoin pulling
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back in that framework and the NASAQ one hundred just forging higher, that concerns
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us to some degree. Just short term. We still believe in this bull
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market cycle for both bitcoin inequities, but we do sense that that divergence is
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something that will ultimately probably catch up with the NASAQ one hundred index as soon
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as people say, well, wait a second, and videos may be a
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little bit overstretched here, all right, So many people kind of considering what's
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happening in the Nasdaq one hundred, if you really think about it, should
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be the Nasdaq one which is really in Vidia running the market right now,
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and as goes in Vidia typically the rest of the market. So I think
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all of this really boils down to a couple of things macro scenarios that are
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going to be taking place from a global perspective. And then also I think
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the scenario from a political landscape really starts to move forward with maybe a new
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pressure Kirka coming out of the regulation side of it. Then you have the
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ethereum scenario that plays into this. Here's Eric Balshnis. He's talking about their
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updating. We're moving there over under data for the launch of the spot ETF
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now to July second, So this might be good. I'm kind of zoom
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in on that tweet right there, hearing the staff sent issuers' comments on the
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s once today and they're pretty tight or pretty light, nothing major, asking
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them back in a week. So if that happens, early July could be
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the date for a potential ETF to actually start going live. When that happens,
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I feel like we're going to see some pretty mission uh. I think
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initial moves around both Bitcoin and ethereum as we start to see the appetite of
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investors for other assets in the digital category outside bitcoin. This tweet, I
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want to go to another clip. Actually, this is Richard saying he's talking
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a little bit more about this cycle and why it's unique. Take a look,
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my price for and this year is much higher than eighty thousand. I'm
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not going to give you the price, but it's much higher than my base
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price and of last year, and I think next year would be a much
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much better Yeah, competitor this year. Something that's pretty unique in this cycle.
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If you remember the past cycle, right, Normally you start off with
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Bitcoin rallying and then you filtered down to the other mega coins so to see
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it, and then slowly it goes down to the mime coins. This cycle
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is sort of was focused on Bitcoin and that meme coins keeping lost. So
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this is unique, and this is in that sense as well. It is
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just something that I do think we're quite seen imprevious psycho oric. I do
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think that the market cap will more than easily double. How many more times
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than that three times? Four times? He's readicate to have a crystal ball
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to predict that you will easily more in double from there, I'm just doing
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the math, and I'm here in a range of between maybe six and twelve
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trillion there, David. When you when you think of that, it's pretty
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bullish, all right. So when you look at what they're talking about is
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the overall market cap in general of crypto holding in and around three trills,
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so you think that capacity as mister Tank coming in, he's the new CEO
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at Finance, obviously he has a little bit of a you know, a
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dog in that hunt. He's kind of pitching his own book because obviously finance
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wins big if all crypto goes up, as do most of the exchanges in
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terms of just volume and activity. But the other thing that plays into this
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is how you know, assets under management are reacting to this. So here's
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black Rock and Fidelity now owning about four hundred and seventy seven thousand bitcoin.
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Kind of zoom in on that right there, we're thirty one billion for their
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spot bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs hold two hundred and sixty thousand plus more bitcoin
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than micro Strategy, which has been at it for a few years now and
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pretty much been the one to kind of look at as the bellwether of the
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industry. So that being the face of where bitcoin is going. When you
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look at the ETFs, remember it's not just black Rock. It's not really
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them in control over that. They have certain funds that can control certain things,
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but it's mostly the accompanying funds that provide that assets under management for those
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kinds of directions in terms of acquiring these. That tells me there's a lot
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more interest from Wall Street in general, and I think that starts to point
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to bigger potential in terms of market cap. Also, you have to look
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at the international effect and of course international breaking. Australia is now largest stark
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exchange ASX has now approved its first pot bitcoin ETF, so we'll see how
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that plays out. Australia a very active market. In fact, I think
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it's number three right now, behind the UK and the US in terms of
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active investors. Still one of the largest markets out there. It'll be interesting
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to see how Australia works in terms of appetite for assets under management, much
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like what's happened here with black Rock, or will be more retail. That'll
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be the kind of curious scenario that will play out over the next few months.
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Further in, of course, we get into the political landscape and you
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got Donald Trump saying he's going to end Joe Biden's war on crypto and ensure
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that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin will be made in America.
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Kind of interesting to see the amazing pivot by our political candidates outside of
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RFK because he's pretty much been pro bitcoin all along. But for Trump,
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this is pretty much a move into the crypto camp that has been a little
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bit different because he's always been very pro dollar. Not that he isn't pro
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dollar, but the fact that he's looking at this as an innovation hub is
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a big step in the right direction. But that's not all. There's a
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lot more happening on the political front. I want to go to a clip
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here and this we'll get into a little bit more around what else could be
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happening, especially in Biden's camp. This is Anthony Scaramucci talking a little bit
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more about this. Take a look. I don't know why he decided to
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see all these young people on cryptocurrency legislation by vetoing the cryptocurrentulation. I don't
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look, I don't think. I think you and I can agree. Trump
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doesn't know what crypto is, he doesn't care what it is. But he's
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got you're right, he's got a feral sense. It's got animal cunning when
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he spots an issue that can divide up. And you know, I was
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talking earlier today to Rocana, and you know he's congressman from Silicon Valley.
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He's like, yeah, twenty five percent of these people out there when they
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talk about blockchain and crypto, and it sounds like Biden is going to shut
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it down and Trump is going to just be Trump and like say yes,
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they're going to be like, I'm out just reflexive hatred of it is.
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I hate the scammers in the deal. I hate the Ponzi guys in the
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deal too. By the way, it exists in every space. They exist
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in whole mortgages. For God's sakes, They've hurt me, Rick, They've
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hurt me. Trust me, I agree with I'm saying, like I want
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to win the election, all right. So this was scaamoci with the Lincoln
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Project. Remember the Lincoln Project very tied in to just not getting Trump.
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They're Republicans, but they're just not getting Trump into the White House. I'll
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explain more about this because this flows into a much bigger political landscape scenario.
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And I will say this about most politicians, is that the ones that I've
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talked to, not all, but for most, I mean, we have
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a handful that do understand what's happening within the crypto space. They definitely understand
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blockchain to a certain extent, but it's a very small minority, you know,
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compared to what we have seen now. Granted, could we expect,
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you know, guys like Trump and even others including Joe Biden to really understand
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what this might mean for the United States. I think they're only relying on
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their staffers to really understand where that's going. So I would argue against that.
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You know that it's that you know, Trump doesn't know. It's just
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that, you know, they don't need to know that much. What they
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need to know is that there's an innovation opportunity. But you've got to look
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at the political baggage that plays around this. Here's Gary Gensler could literally cost
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Joe Biden the election. This is coming in from Mark Cuban, and I'll
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play out within this because Cuban kind of hit on a couple of points here
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because he was doing this whole State of Crypto event and this is where he
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kind of dropped in on this. And this is a very uniquely American issue.
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And I would agree that this is more of a Gensler problem right now
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from an SEC standpoint, because it does look like there's a lot of overreach
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around innovation in most of this. But this is an opportunity as well.
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I think for both sides to kind of play hero here, and I think
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that's the question going forward is how fast and how quickly could we see the
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Biden administration jump to maybe a neutral, if not a pro stance on crypto.
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Here, of course, is leaked email showing that Biden's administration will be
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attending a bitcoin and crypto roundtable in DC. This is next month in July.
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Now this is still potentially a rumor, but it does show potential faith
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here. This of course is talking about things like former House Speaker Paul Ryan
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calls on the US to fight China with stable coins. So this gets into
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more democratic position, especially when you look at trying to kind of understand not
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only the innovation opportunity, but what we're losing on a global standpoint. I
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think that's a bigger point going forward back to the Lincoln Project, because this
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is exactly who they are. So this is kind of the lineup of how
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they got started. This, of course, is all kind of joined or
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came about during the last election with Donald Trump, and most of it was
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just trying to do anything to get an elected official in there outside a president
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outside of Donald Trump, even though they were you know, Republicans because they
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are Republican Party members. So the fact that they're moving in this direction could
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start to lure in that bipartisan landscape around the Democrats and Republicans maybe coming together
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on this as a whole. Just to give you an example, on our
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crypto tracker, you guys can jump over to our website. This is our
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political tracker. We update it daily right now money through Friday. And this
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is the interesting point right here, is that Biden has actually been climbing in
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sentiment on crypto all the way back since the beginning of June, almost the
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end of June, is almost in a position where he's starting to compete with
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RFK in terms of positive sentiment. Now, this could be just RFK falling
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off the chart in terms of sentiment as a potential candidate. That's still not,
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yes, necessarily be the case. But Trump has been kind of somewhat
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flat lining here but is still slightly climbing on sentiment overall. With that being
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said, a couple of other things you have to look at. Here's,
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of course, Jeremie Alairs, the Circle executive, saying that Euro's stable coins
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will boom after Mika goes live. Guess what that happens in a couple of
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weeks. When this occurs, we are going to see I think a land
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grab within the European Union around crypto, but especially around stable coins, and
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this may start to shift the percentage of what we'll see in terms of stable
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coins versus Fiat the rest of this year. That'll be a very intriguing thing
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to watch. We're going to try to get Patrick Hanson on to talk about
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this very soon. Other things out here, Coinbase decided to bring the controversial
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pre launch markets. This is another thing that many people would look at because
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we are Americans. We can't get into these pre launch markets, and it
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means that you and I, a Coinbase account holder, cannot go into these
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kind of projects, and it opens us up to the rest of the world,
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or the at least the regions and jurisdictions that Coinbase operates in. What
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does this mean as a strategy for Coinbase. It means that maybe their projects
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may not necessarily get the bump that Coinbase usually gives on that, so that's
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something to consider. It also looks a little bit bad from an optic standpoint
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for coinbase, because it means Americans can't do it, and we're the biggest
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market out there in terms of crypto assets, stable coins, et cetera,
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out behind the UK and Australia. Now they could be looking at this as
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a more cumulative effect around the global scenario that plays out within this, and
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it's just a strategy move overall other things that are happening. Of course,
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with that being the case, you've got Tether debuting its new synthetic dollar backed
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by tokenized gold in another tokenized push. So this will be another big barrier
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that will continue to push Tether maybe to the top of the heap to compete
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with USDC as we see the USDC and the USD the euro starting to take
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maybe center stage around stable coins, and that'll be the question is how much
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stable coins starts to move into some of these other major liquid areas. So
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all of that kind of pointing into a couple other things, and one of
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the things that points to, of course is this right here, US Saudi
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petro dollar deal now is ending after fifty years. Petro dollars basically simply means
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that when Saudi was selling the US oil, they would settle in the American
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dollar. That of course has started to move away. Some of that could
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be pressure from bricks. I think it's more in the sense that we've got
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so many different global currencies now that are rising, and that Saudi is simply
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in a position where they're trying to be global trade and really understand that.
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We could see stable coins start to play into this token iss goal play into
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this, whether it's the digital you on or possibly even Russian assets going into
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this. All of this plays into one other scenario, and that is a
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bit of a weakening in terms of the FIAT condition from a US standpoint.
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All right, so I want to go to a clip here. This is
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the CEO of OBERA talking a little bit more around how these assets may play
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out in a global financial condition. Let me kind of just really save the
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problems. So let's go back to the overall picture. Help. So we've
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got bitcoin as the shadow central bank with the central bank asset. The next
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forecost is that you have a theoeum as the primary blockchain for institutions, and
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that we're going to see the traditional financial system move on chain through this process
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of tokenization. Break that down. Sure, So you know the beauty of
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digital currencies is that once you're operating outside of a traditional database and using like
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a token that you can move around just peer to peer. It doesn't have
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to reside in your computer anymore, the transaction, it could be everywhere.
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But that almost necessitates a new banking system that's not based upon the mainframes that
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we still use to process ATM withdrawals. Right, those were built in the
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nineteen seventies, before the end and it existed. We need a banking system
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and a financial system that works at Internet scale. So derivative transactions, you
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know, institutional lending, how are we going to do that? Using tokenized
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stocks or bitcoin as collateral for a loan? Well, DeFi and all of
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the different kind of decentralized applications that have been built on this new kind of
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crypto smart contract stack take advantage of all of this. Always on meaning twenty
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four to seven, three hundred and sixty five always on, no borders.
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Sometimes we artificially put borders into these systems because we're afraid of being sued,
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right even if we think we're right, So we'll put our ipchecks for country
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checks or whatever to block the US usually right, But basically it's borderless,
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always on operates twenty four to seven and is infinitely, you know, more
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scalable than monolithic systems that each each investment bank has had to build on their
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own over the years. All Right, So as you can see, you
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know, his framework is that there is going to be three blockchains that kind
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of really benefit from this. Obviously the Ethereum blockchain from the token is side
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of things. I didn't mention it, but in the interview he broke down
20:12
a little bit more around Salona and that being the retail potential now doesn't mean
20:17
that Salona is the automatic winner. There could be others that will play into
20:19
this in terms of transaction. I think that real world assets will also be
20:23
another factor, whether we said something like an avalanche or so playing into that
20:27
game. But the point is is that it is a revitalization of an entire
20:32
financial ecosystem. That might be why you're starting to see so much political front
20:37
up on this, as well as what we're seeing from a global macro side
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of things, whether it's Mika, the Saudi Petro dollar bricks, all of
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these things are happening somewhat at the same time. And that is as the
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dollar starts to see a little bit of a downtrend. Last up, of
20:52
course is t Mobile now owner of Doshia Telcom, will soon mine bitcoin in
20:57
addition to running notes. So this just shows more global macro positioning by some
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of the biggest companies out there, starting to understand maybe the future of where
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blockchain is going to go. Just a quick look here on bitcoin starting to
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come up slightly at the sixty six K mark after plumbing to around sixty five
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k over the weekend, and kind of in a position right now, eat
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starting to stabilize slightly, coming back into a position here after seeing a thirty
21:25
four hundred dollars now positioning into almost thirty five fifty back into our sentiment zone
21:30
that we've been tracking. We'll continue to lay this down. By the way,
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