Latest / Filmstudy - Baltimore Ravens Talk / 2024 Draft Strategy Part 2

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2024 Draft Strategy Part 2 · Filmstudy - Baltimore Ravens Talk

0:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Hi folks, welcome to the episode of Film Study.
0:15
[SPEAKER_01]: We're back for the second half of our draft strategy preview.
0:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And joining me is my Friday morning GM partner, Vaslerico's, Vas, how you doing?
0:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Very good can, very good.
0:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Having fun, work through all these different scenarios.
0:32
[SPEAKER_00]: It really feels like the draft is upon us now.
0:35
[SPEAKER_00]: This week.
0:37
[SPEAKER_01]: It is the coolest time of year.
0:38
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're Friday morning GM fans, and by the way, we want to really give you guys a shout out.
0:45
[SPEAKER_01]: For whatever reason and and all the reasons are good, this show gets the most love during the off season of anything, draft content obviously is always at the top of that draft content listens are the highest of all the shows for the entire year and probably some of that is a case of of people, you know, the show has legs so you can still listen to this show two months from now.
1:07
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's interesting and anybody now coming back to it.
1:10
[SPEAKER_01]: if you're listening in August or September, you're getting a chance to find out what we got wrong at this time.
1:16
[SPEAKER_01]: The two days before the draft from the recording this, but also you have a chance to listen to this before the draft and hopefully get into some of the looks and crannies we're going to get into in the second episode.
1:27
[SPEAKER_01]: So Vos always a pleasure to talk football with you glad to have you back.
1:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about the possibilities of trades here for the Ravens because I know it can be very frustrating for fans to have their team trade out of the first round.
1:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about, you know, some problems, for instance, that may exist with trading this year or the likelihood you think that they might trade out.
1:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think Eric is the cause is always looking to play the board to his advantage, as much as he possibly can, so I always think traders are high chance of a trade this year, in particular, I think.
2:08
[SPEAKER_00]: It may not be as advantageous in previous years for a couple of reasons.
2:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Number one, the positions they need, particularly left tackle, are scarce or positions.
2:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So you move back your risk of chance of not having that right player there.
2:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Another consideration that I haven't heard mentioned very much, you hear a lot of, well, they're even set to be conservative with the salary cap, because they pay a lot more Jackson and just pay a low quantity, pay just a matter of BK, and they don't have a whole lot of cap dollars.
2:36
[SPEAKER_00]: which means that in free agency they cannot go out and grab a Marcus Williams difference maker, which to me means that you need to try to get those difference makers in the draft and naturally the further you move back in the draft, the less likely you have of hitting on that big times difference maker.
2:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and that is one of the, one of the things about value selections is they, they often tend to be at the less valuable positions.
3:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we saw that with the Linderbomb, Marquis Brown turning him into Linderbomb, now the great trade for value to get rid of Marquis Brown at that point was it was absolutely the right trade for value and to pick up Linderbomb has turned out to be it now appears a very good pick.
3:18
[SPEAKER_01]: It could have been, you know,
3:22
[SPEAKER_01]: They had other ways they could have arranged their center slash corner back, but if they had done one that I advocated at the time, it could have been potentially disastrous because the guy wanted was Kyirilum and then to take exact Tom leader of the draft and Zack Tom said not being a good player, but I think they got very good.
3:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, they end up getting a better value probably with Linda Bob will see that that still has to play out, but Linda Bob's been certainly a very fine player.
3:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the other two occasions, Orlando Brown turned into a dafe away, so that's a pretty imposition for pre-inposition.
3:54
[SPEAKER_00]: The other one was Hayden Hirsch, which started in JK Dallas, which wasn't necessarily denying that being a great value for the right answer.
4:01
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what the BPA oftentimes, the best part available is that a position that the other teams don't want.
4:06
[SPEAKER_00]: That's just kind of how it gets.
4:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and it can certainly be the case and you have to hope that the right positions and the right skill sets drop to you to take advantage of that.
4:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to point out another problem here is that I think the Ravens limited total draft capital really constrains how they address something so central is left tackle with the barriers to entry it has the Ravens have a unique opportunity this year.
4:34
[SPEAKER_01]: to pick a left tackle with a one year ramp up period.
4:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Next year, if they let that the clock expire on this draft and they haven't got their left tackle still, it's a much more pressing and difficult need to fill next year.
4:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So they've got to figure out basically in terms of trading backs specifically how they avoid that situation coming up.
4:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this actually because of it is probably a rare year where the ravens could trade up a few spots.
5:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Particularly, if the left tackles get scarce and they want to get the last one, you know, and they have to move up to 20 26 27 28 to do it, which I think is a reasonable place that might end up happening, then it's possible that they could move up a couple of spots, but it's a, you know, you always have a high percentage of your cap total.
5:26
[SPEAKER_01]: put into that first pick.
5:27
[SPEAKER_01]: It's another way to think of it.
5:29
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just how little total value the Ravens have after the first round.
5:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's only about 554 JJ points they have in all the picks after round one, which is why everything they have put together might only get them up to about pick 17 or so.
5:45
[SPEAKER_01]: That really is a is a sobering thought when you get down to it.
5:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure, absolutely true.
5:52
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that sort of takes that moving up for Phatano or Phashano idea from Gordon potentially off the table.
6:02
[SPEAKER_00]: It is sort of an ideal situation where you have running on a one-year deal where you can even offensive tackles drafted in the top 10 sometimes, a lot of times, take a year to develop.
6:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And you could cross train and maybe they could play guard depending on the, you know, the height and, you know, some of the really lanky guys maybe not, but then again Jonathan I can play guard for a year, so maybe they could.
6:25
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a, I really don't like packaging picks to move up necessarily, I don't like using top 100 picks to move up.
6:34
[SPEAKER_00]: If you can use some day three picks to move up, maybe at a later date, a later round, to me maybe the third round would be a good spot to move up because the last few drafts, there seems to be sort of a drop off between the top of the third and then the bottom half of the third is the developmental players, the top of the third is contributors, they
6:55
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what I would like to do, but you know, you're just, you're trying to get as many playmakers as you can and using two picks for one player is just losing proposition most of the time.
7:05
[SPEAKER_01]: So we both happen like the same guy in the,
7:13
[SPEAKER_01]: second round for wider seers.
7:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's if you'll get of South Carolina, okay?
7:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And we talked about that in the first one.
7:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm trying to find it is the trade value chart I'm looking for.
7:23
[SPEAKER_01]: So if let's say the ravens don't trade up in the first round.
7:29
[SPEAKER_01]: How would you feel about moving up in the second round?
7:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Where the Ravens have a pick worth about 284 JJ points?
7:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I know other teams use other things in the JJ scale, but the team moving down will typically demand the premium of quote unquote full JJ to move up.
7:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's say the Ravens had to move up to number 55 to get LaGette instead of 62.
7:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Total cost involved there is 66 points,
7:56
[SPEAKER_01]: to write about number one thirteen.
7:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so if they gave up one thirteen to move up that far around two, would you be okay, or is that too much of a premium?
8:05
[SPEAKER_00]: No, I'd be okay with that.
8:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'd be okay with that.
8:08
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're talking about the early four to dig out from Moses, so basically, yeah, I think that I think I'd be okay with that one.
8:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But I'd like to hang on to 93, or I'd like to at least make a
8:20
[SPEAKER_00]: My, my, my, my, my, my, what's what I'm looking for?
8:25
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, well, it's, uh, because you're really hoping you can fill all three of those needs with this first three picks.
8:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's the ideal situation.
8:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, all right, you know, a secondary problem I see with, this is a problem with it really with trading back as opposed to trading off, is that if you trade back, you really can't jeopardize your chance to give the left tackle position filled.
8:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, they have, they're going to have places probably where they are forced with a choice to reach for a player who they really think should be a little bit lower,
9:03
[SPEAKER_01]: but that other teams may already be feeling the run occurring on left tackle specifically, that it may be gone at 30.
9:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And so we talked a little bit about Kingsley, Silamata, Ias, being a guy that perhaps the Ravens might reach for, that hard to really get an exact peg on his value, like any of these players, but him and particular, he's mostly, he's more a trait sky, he's definitely a one-year ramp
9:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I would ask the question, is do you see the problem in taking a chance on moving back to eight spots if somebody offers a pretty good package of JGA points for that?
9:43
[SPEAKER_00]: If he's your last guy, I think that's pretty risky.
9:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Why, why drains of opinion on Kingsley?
9:48
[SPEAKER_00]: You have neat ties, father, long time offensive line coach has Kingsley in his top 20-year role.
9:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Yet the end of Jeremiah, the rate in front of Ravenskaya hasn't outside of his top 100.
9:58
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
10:01
[SPEAKER_00]: It would be pretty risky, you know, could you maybe circle back with a Patrick Paul or a Piran, I'm in Gaji at 62?
10:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully, maybe, but these positions, especially offensive line,
10:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Even if you're well stocked, we've seen the Eagles take a first round tackle with no chance of playing time and totally red shirt and in the first round, I don't see many teams just pass on most players even if they have five capable starters on the offensive line.
10:32
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's a good, it's a good place to, to praise the Raiders for one of their picks.
10:36
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the guys they picked, it was a complete, tools guy, you know, nobody thought he was ready.
10:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Colton Miller.
10:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And he ended up being a guy who ended up being a pretty darn good left tackle.
10:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And certainly didn't look so that first year, but he wasn't a developmental guy.
10:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And it took a pretty high to be a developmental guy, 16, 17, 18, they picked him.
10:54
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's still, you have to look at that and say, okay, of all the weird Raiders picks
11:05
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
11:05
[SPEAKER_01]: So, let's talk about maybe some scenarios where you can see the Ravens trade back.
11:12
[SPEAKER_01]: What are the conditions you would need to see that would be optimal for a trade back?
11:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, to me, I think you'd like to see
11:22
[SPEAKER_00]: enough players with a first round grade.
11:24
[SPEAKER_00]: We still have eight players under board with a first round grade and they're moving back eight spots.
11:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Or I guess maybe seven and you're hoping somebody else jumps in there.
11:33
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, you want to be better safe than sorry.
11:37
[SPEAKER_01]: So I know that it was one GM and I can't remember who it was who said they always wanted to have a two-to-one relationship between the number of spots they had to go and a particular players value that they coveted their chance.
11:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that really could apply very well to the first ground because there's much more of a consensus of where people are value-wise.
11:56
[SPEAKER_01]: at that point, but if you're in the fourth round say, and you have three guys you like, and are somewhat agnostic to position, then I think it's okay to move back six spots.
12:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you probably get this, get one of those three guys.
12:09
[SPEAKER_01]: If you, if you,
12:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you don't, then you know, your next drop down is probably not that severe.
12:15
[SPEAKER_01]: So you, you, you just deal with that in this thing.
12:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I just think that the potential for loss by moving back in terms of the left tackle barriers is just enormous in round one.
12:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I think, you know, if there is a run on left tackles and you see that, yeah, maybe it's so much a year and not.
12:34
[SPEAKER_01]: in the first round, you wouldn't, you'd hope it wouldn't be Patrick Paul.
12:38
[SPEAKER_01]: I certainly wouldn't be Patrick Paul.
12:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I did see on Twitter, Patrick Paul was saying he's hearing he's now going in the first round.
12:45
[SPEAKER_00]: He thinks he's going on the first round.
12:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Roger Rosengarden apparently got a first round with this article this morning at 12 o'clock, he's in it.
12:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, you know, I don't know.
12:56
[SPEAKER_00]: It's, what is it?
12:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Let it's gonna solve, don't tell us me any secrets.
13:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I won't tell you any lies.
13:04
[SPEAKER_01]: There you go.
13:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's other component to it is the cost that has a really good feel on what the other teams are trying to do and I think that's something where he really excels and obviously he's not going to sit there and talk about it, but I would have you know he games this out he must go through scenario after scenario we think the key chiefs are going to take this player and the bills are going to take this player.
13:27
[SPEAKER_00]: or this position, and I think that might be one of the places where he really games the system, because I would have to imagine he has one of the highest actors use on mock drafts that he does in-house, just to sort of pull your odds there.
13:42
[SPEAKER_01]: probably, probably a very good bet.
13:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I would think they have good models for that too.
13:47
[SPEAKER_01]: The wild card in all that is the trades that can occur because you can always get to you.
13:51
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's probably something they fit in their models as they're trying to see, you know, what's the chance that this team will trade?
13:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Do these, do this team, what's their history of trading their first round of effect?
14:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Do they trade back a fair amount?
14:03
[SPEAKER_01]: The 50-year option is a consideration in trading back, I think, and in particular since you mentioned this on the first show, since they're drafting a high-value position, they're probably less likely to do it because they really want that 50-year option.
14:16
[SPEAKER_01]: If it's an, and that would apply to any of the three, I think, reasonable positions they could draft, whether it's wider receiver, cornerback, or left tackle, they're going to be looking to get a 50-year option out of that.
14:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Mm-hmm.
14:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, we made that point in the first show.
14:33
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just doesn't, it's a more, the 50roption is more appealing for those really high-paid positions than others.
14:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and the cost is said, it'll take a premium to get him to move out of the first round and I agree with that.
14:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And sometimes the players don't even play out that, but it adds to the trade value.
14:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Mark East Brown, for example, they picked up his 50roption if he was drafted in the second round, maybe you don't get quite the return.
14:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, that's a good point.
14:58
[SPEAKER_01]: It's always better to have two rather than one at the end of that contract, even though to be honest, I look at it as you get four cheap years and you get the 50 year at like a 20 or 30% discount over what you would pay.
15:11
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not, it's get four point three cheap years from a first round player.
15:17
[SPEAKER_01]: If you get a pretty good pick, let's see.
15:24
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the things about, you know, what they could potentially do if they do move back is you really really match the premium in terms of harvesting additional value there.
15:33
[SPEAKER_01]: I hope the Ravens would get that for trading out of 30 in this draft based on what's out there.
15:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if the board is wiped out at that point, maybe I feel a little bit different from me about it.
15:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I feel like, okay, it's a crap situation, but at least they're going to get going to harvest some JG value for somebody else who wants the number 30 wide receiver
15:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe you can get a pick for next year, you know, and then maybe you can be moved back and you take a look at potentially if that's instead of trading up for me move back, it supports like that the boards looked out you know, I don't like to reach something you need a dance partner of course, but you know, I really don't like to reach so.
16:13
[SPEAKER_00]: The one thing I noticed this year with the Costa and his press conferences and media appearances that he made note of that I hadn't in the past is he always mentioned wanting to accumulate more picks but this year he made special mention on wanting more picks in a certain range and maybe that's the product of not being able to get a quarterback early enough last year potentially.
16:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and the other thing he said is the bishati rain of terror, and how he wants to, he wants to maybe trade a light around pick to move up and the thing and that's something the Browns did last year with the Ravens.
16:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Browns could be hearing about it for years in terms of Andrew Vores, but I think it is a, it really is a question for the Ravens.
16:53
[SPEAKER_01]: While I think, while I'd be happy, getting real value to give up a pick in this draft, I really wouldn't want it to be a top-round pick, and I'd really go as far as the nothing in the top-five picks through the end of the fourth round.
17:08
[SPEAKER_01]: They just need too much in this draft, and also they have too much next year.
17:12
[SPEAKER_01]: So even though, be kind of really appealing to turn
17:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't see them giving up on it with all the needs.
17:24
[SPEAKER_01]: They have this year.
17:25
[SPEAKER_01]: And the fact they have so many picks already next year, they got a lot of small change covered for next year too.
17:30
[SPEAKER_01]: They'll have to opportunity to move up by having that currency of low-round picks.
17:34
[SPEAKER_01]: In particular, they're going to have what four-sixth round picks that next year as it looks currently from compensatory purposes.
17:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, one, four-th and three-sixths.
17:45
[SPEAKER_00]: The more capital you have, the better long, you know, overall, but how do you deploy that that was effectively?
17:50
[SPEAKER_00]: If you combine the picks, we've been saying it for a long time.
17:53
[SPEAKER_00]: If you can trade up four, four donkeys for a horse, do it.
17:57
[SPEAKER_00]: But it doesn't ever seem to really work out that
18:01
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, that's a good one.
18:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I hadn't heard that one before.
18:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about trading up.
18:05
[SPEAKER_01]: What are some of the ways the ravens could trade up in this draft that might make sense?
18:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And we got one real special one that was sent to me by email and I want to get to that one last.
18:15
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, one, the exactly trade picks for picks and I'll start with picks for picks.
18:22
[SPEAKER_01]: What's the highest you could see them going on a picks for picks basis?
18:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I think probably what you said, given up that first fourth, we'll take you to what did you say 20, 20, seven or 26?
18:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Let me see, first fourth, the first fourth of ways worth about 68, I'll let you take the moment here and just put it in Baltimore, because somewhat reason it always starts off on Houston's draft capital maybe because they have the most.
18:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so they get 68 additional points.
18:47
[SPEAKER_01]: That'll get you up to about really only about to 27 if you trade that first fourth.
18:55
[SPEAKER_01]: If you trade the second fourth, it'll only get you off two slots to number 28.
18:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, technically, that is trading a player for an upgrade, because it's just delayed, because it was the Morgan Moses pick.
19:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd be okay with that, and I think that probably be about the highest they would go.
19:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Correct me if I'm wrong.
19:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Can the last time they trade it up with their first pick was Alurinaara?
19:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they traded up for the more, but they don't
19:21
[SPEAKER_00]: It was like a little bit down and nothing went back up.
19:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
19:25
[SPEAKER_00]: But the first time the first move they made was up in the first.
19:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I believe was not.
19:30
[SPEAKER_01]: First move up in the first.
19:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll take your word for it.
19:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, look at that.
19:35
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's a, and that's only one pick and with a six round pick that they threw in, which was far less, far less than the value there.
19:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, Swindle does old buddy Bill Savage in that deal.
19:47
[SPEAKER_01]: It was a, it was a great one for Ozzy.
19:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Um,
19:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, I could see them giving up number 93 and if you address left tackle out of the deal, I'm not crazy about it, but I would be willing to give up 30 and 93 to get up to 23 or 24.
20:06
[SPEAKER_01]: 23 would be really good because then you jump ahead of Dallas who's in the market for a tackle.
20:13
[SPEAKER_01]: So Dallas has other needs too, but they'd be in the market for a tackle potentially.
20:19
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a two-for-one deal, you move up and you beat out a team that's in a fixed position, look at it and get that.
20:26
[SPEAKER_01]: So when 23 is on the clock, you know, you're getting your guy.
20:29
[SPEAKER_01]: The rivers also may have those last three offensive tackles that we think are kind of right priced.
20:36
[SPEAKER_01]: differently priced they might may like one of them a lot more than the others and I could be that that's a place and I also think if you're at twenty what if you're 23 you might really have a choice between latent and mims there
20:51
[SPEAKER_01]: and have it not be gaiting.
20:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a kind of a gaiting fan, so I'd be okay with him being the guy.
20:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he fits the Ravens for some other reasons, but including the ramp up period.
21:02
[SPEAKER_01]: But if the other teams are probably going to be on MIMS and Latham very highly.
21:16
[SPEAKER_00]: enough, you know, so much better than, let's say, Guyton, it should give up.
21:22
[SPEAKER_00]: the 93rd and Dean Brugler's top 100.
21:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I like the players in that range, 902 is DJ James, corner out of Auburn, 93 is Ted's Walker, where she got a character.
21:33
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a good one.
21:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Four.
21:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Four is doing at L.A.L.
21:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Susan, Edge out of Utah.
21:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Who's also, I'd be excited about any of those three guys.
21:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Not that this list is gonna be hard and fast.
21:42
[SPEAKER_00]: This guys probably go 15 picks earlier, 10 picks earlier maybe, but that's a calculation there.
21:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd rather roll one of that third person.
21:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, and I'm with you on that, and 93 is a pick I would really like that, but the reason you might do it and the reason it's on my list of things to talk about today is because it's not the difference between
22:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
22:10
[SPEAKER_01]: So you also have that risk.
22:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's where I, you know, I don't want to be in a reach for Suamata Ia or a, or a, you know, compromise and take a Jordan Morgan.
22:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, I don't set the position.
22:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I'd want to be in as the drafter.
22:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Very fair.
22:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Very fair.
22:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Completely agree there.
22:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Morgan is probably on my don't draft list at this point.
22:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, now the another thing that they've done in the past, then they certainly did it with Kyle Boller, they've done on other occasions, this is a trade-up pick from a future draft.
22:44
[SPEAKER_01]: In a trading of 2025 pick, I think carries its own special burdens, the primary one being that you don't know how you're gonna finish this year.
22:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you finish, if Mark gets hurt after four games, so the Ravens end up winning six games a whole year,
23:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Then you're really going to be pissed off at yourself if you traded away your number one pick and they and they could otherwise be picking what number five overall or something.
23:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I imagine if they had traded away a future first.
23:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, because they, who did they trade with, so they, they traded with Atlanta who just had a great year to work as Super Bowl of 98.
23:34
[SPEAKER_01]: They traded early pick in the, in the second round.
23:37
[SPEAKER_01]: They might have been 3435 somewhere in there and Atlanta thought, oh, well, we'll just move back six spots or whatever, because we're going to be in the NFC championship, you know, and then of course, they were at the fifth worst record in football.
23:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Perfect example.
23:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Perfect example of the
23:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, should we talk about, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, okay.
23:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I do want to get to Rashad just a second, but I thought one other thing is the lower the round you go, the less variation you have on what that pick value is and in particular, the raves of a fourth round pick that should be a, um,
24:11
[SPEAKER_01]: The compensatory pick next year.
24:13
[SPEAKER_01]: So often those picks are done on a floater basis where it says, we'll give you a fourth run pick, we're not guaranteeing you about anywhere it is, which means you get the lowest pick that the team has.
24:21
[SPEAKER_01]: If you can trade a four or six next year as part of any package to move up, that's going to be better because you're going to be trading a pick right at the end of the round.
24:31
[SPEAKER_01]: So I like that better and it's more, you're not going to, you're not going to get be trading away the first pick of the fourth route,
24:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So I like the idea of maybe trading away a six or a future six where you can maybe move up a few spots on the third to get that one player to position you really call it.
24:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Or in the fourth the top of the fourth you know there's always a lot of action on the when the when the bell rings the first you know when the gates open.
25:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the next day and everybody's tweaking their boards and then your whole all 10 guys you're like go one through 10 they're all wiped out can you move up a little bit there and get the guy you really caught it I'd be very willing to do that if the right opportunity presents itself.
25:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, those are, I think, really good options.
25:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go to the hottest recent topic, which is the potential trade of Rashad Baitman.
25:29
[SPEAKER_01]: First of all, I'll just give my position.
25:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not a big fan of trading Baitman at this point.
25:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I think your A, your trading low, because what he's done so far is not exciting anybody about his total value.
25:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Marky's Brown, he had some production.
25:44
[SPEAKER_01]: to lean on.
25:45
[SPEAKER_01]: So, so they traded him at a good time.
25:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, I don't see this as a particularly good time to trade baitmen when you also have a dirt of white or seagrers.
25:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.
25:56
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to go down to one, essentially, one perimeter wide receiver that'd be very risky.
26:01
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of smoke, though, can a lot of smoke this week.
26:05
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a IG or something.
26:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't even use that, but while I'm at home for you, they move his locker.
26:11
[SPEAKER_00]: You're hearing some of the people that are plugged in, leave a couple of breadcrumbs on the timeline, the Twitter timeline,
26:17
[SPEAKER_00]: So back door channels are saying there's a possibility there's a real possibility they did request the trade.
26:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And the ravenants have honored most of the trade requests, whether that be Chuck Clark or Mark East Brown, that they made way to year, or Lenta Brown, they've rehearsed or they pulled the trade immediately.
26:31
[SPEAKER_00]: But you're right, the point is, what can you, can you get an equal talent back with the pick you get from date?
26:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're going to get a third round pick for date, then
26:40
[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't really interest me too much.
26:42
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're going to package, bait him in with a pick to move up, that doesn't interest you very much either, because you're creating another hole in the meantime, another two for one.
26:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's kind of what I have.
26:53
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so the players you named that the Ravens traded.
26:58
[SPEAKER_01]: So they traded a potential left tackle in Orlando, Brown hasn't worked out great for him, but he's a, you know, he's a left tackle at least.
27:06
[SPEAKER_01]: It is in his new life outside of the Ravens.
27:10
[SPEAKER_01]: They traded Brown, of course, and that was a, sorry, the other Brown, Marquis Brown, I should say.
27:18
[SPEAKER_01]: The times they've done it, they've had players who were actual commodities.
27:21
[SPEAKER_01]: They wanted including Hayden Hearst.
27:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So, even Hearst was, they got a second round pick from the Falcons, which is more than they should have gotten frankly for him at that point in his career.
27:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't see a counter party that's going to be all that excited about Rashad Bateman.
27:39
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a fifth year option, but that means he's got like 1.2 cheap beers left, 1.3 cheap beers by our, you know, earlier statement.
27:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that something that excites you?
27:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, not unless you're looking at some of the separation charts and you just say, hey, Lamar just doesn't click with extra severs, then maybe that's a, but I still agree, you're still telling me selling lower.
28:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe not low, but lower than you want to be, just because the house careers play out so far.
28:12
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I don't know, it's coughed the other factor I think is maybe a little bit of a chemistry issue, personality, locked room issue, let's say you do take a receiver in the first round on a Mitchell, how does, but how does beep and does beep and show up for training camp?
28:27
[SPEAKER_00]: At that point, I mean, it didn't even come to the A's when he's trying to work on his chemistry with Lamor and they're giving them an opportunity.
28:34
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't know, there's a couple of, a couple of factors to the decision.
28:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I hope a player like Bateman would be trying to do things to improve his receiving skills still.
28:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's the best route runner on the Ravens right now.
28:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Not, you know, Zigg gets by with tremendous suddenness, which is leveling itself, it's very, very valuable.
28:55
[SPEAKER_01]: But Bateman gets by on being a great route runner.
28:58
[SPEAKER_01]: He's wiggling the defensive back and manipulating him.
29:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Can run all the routes, can do very,
29:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Very good, versatile receiver in that case is the one true X on the on the Ravens right now, and I agree, it will cause problems probably to have another player drafted that position.
29:17
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, one of the things to do and your friend at Baltimore beat down Kyle Barber knows this very well as he stays on top of Twitter accounts and he watches for profile changes.
29:29
[SPEAKER_01]: that occurred.
29:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And the year that the Ravens was when they drafted Trent and Simpson, I think Patrick Queen deleted his, the Ravens references.
29:42
[SPEAKER_00]: It's generally to the left, it's really to the left sometimes with the left.
29:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, he removed his San Francisco 49ers from his Instagram.
29:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Come on, guys, let's, anyway.
29:53
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I mean, even if you took a look at it, even if you got a look at it in the second round, is that eating any baby snaps?
29:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I bet, and obviously most of the maximizes career or things that he wants to be showcased,
30:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I don't know, it's a tough, you know, I didn't want to trade Hollywood.
30:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't want to trade Orlando Brown either, you know, because they were needs at the time and they created a hole, but the class that took the value, the question is, I don't think Babyman brings all forces in value.
30:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, but when you heard what the, what the harvest was on the Brown trade, you couldn't have been, I'm sorry, the Marquis Brown trade, you could not have been upset with that.
30:33
[SPEAKER_01]: It was, I mean, because it gave us, because it gave us a better time, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, but it's pretty high in the second round.
30:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought, I wasn't a certain return, but I was upset that it left a whole lot of position that they neglect for a while and it didn't really address it.
30:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I'll leave it there.
30:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
30:53
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, fair enough.
30:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, want to talk about what I think is one of the most creative ideas of all, and want to make sure this gets credited properly.
31:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So, unfortunately, this guy did not want to come on either this show, which would have been great or another show, but his name is John Bushleman, and he sent me this trade idea, which I'll just record directly.
31:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And by the way,
31:15
[SPEAKER_01]: He has all his work done, which is why just come on the show.
31:18
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I'm trying to make you look good.
31:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Believe me, when we go through what your idea is, I won't ask any really tough questions.
31:25
[SPEAKER_01]: I won't contradict you.
31:27
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's there.
31:28
[SPEAKER_01]: I might, you know, soft petals, something, but Sky has a very well-formed argument.
31:31
[SPEAKER_01]: So I want to, I want to give him the credit and talk about it.
31:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so his, his trade, and this is a lot to give up.
31:37
[SPEAKER_01]: He says trade pick number 30 and a zeal likely.
31:41
[SPEAKER_01]: to the New York Jets were picked number 10.
31:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And the New York Jets, of course, are very closely tied to Brock Bowers.
31:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And likely has two cheap years remaining on his contract.
31:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Brock Bowers would, of course, have four, plus a potential 50-or-option.
31:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's an even, you know, obviously his more value at that.
31:59
[SPEAKER_01]: But then the Jets would be well compensated by still having the 30th pick in the draft in addition to likely.
32:06
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Joe Douglas is there has been a ravens guy.
32:09
[SPEAKER_01]: So the phone is the phone number is known when they see it on the other side.
32:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Most of that way, I think that's probably true of most of the GMs and the league from to cost is perspective.
32:20
[SPEAKER_01]: From a JJ points perspective, it would put the value of him at something like
32:32
[SPEAKER_01]: He says for seven hundred and sixty points.
32:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if that's true or not, but but it was the net take on Hollywood.
32:39
[SPEAKER_01]: That sounds a little high to me.
32:41
[SPEAKER_00]: But what what what pick were sixty to be.
32:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, right.
32:45
[SPEAKER_01]: You're out with Ravens R. This would be like a second, thirty-a-thround pick.
32:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Let me get to it quickly.
32:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, yeah, number thirty's for six twenty six eighties worth the twenty seventh pick.
32:54
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're trading effectively twenty seven and thirty for number ten.
33:02
[SPEAKER_00]: very good return.
33:03
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, to really give some context, you have to kind of talk about the pluses and the minuses of 12 personnel.
33:10
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're a little short, that offensive tackle 12 personnel makes some sense.
33:13
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of discussion about the viability of 12 personnel can
33:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Monkey couldn't do it a Georgia.
33:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Greg Roman couldn't do it with here.
33:30
[SPEAKER_00]: He couldn't even do it with San Fran when he had Delaney Walker and Werner Davis.
33:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And Monkey couldn't do it the Ravens last year.
33:37
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, look at the splits.
33:38
[SPEAKER_00]: What Andrew's out.
33:39
[SPEAKER_00]: What they produce is what Andrew's playing.
33:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Like he doesn't.
33:42
[SPEAKER_00]: However, Danries, I'll give him some credit here.
33:46
[SPEAKER_00]: We booked some EPA.
33:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And my thing is to benefit at 12 personnel is the versatility that teams all know if we're going to run in
33:56
[SPEAKER_00]: They know you're going to pass.
33:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So 12 personnel, a lot of that advantage goes away.
34:01
[SPEAKER_00]: However, EPA, out of 12 personnel, even when trailing, even when 80, I forget that exact terminology, W pass, 80, if the general people pass 80% of the situation, so the null pass is coming.
34:18
[SPEAKER_00]: They still wouldn't have the best EPA at a 12.
34:21
[SPEAKER_00]: So I've solved my stance a little bit about being against 12,
34:27
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so last year, the ravens had an unbelievable year thrown to the tight ends on all the rate statistics basis.
34:35
[SPEAKER_01]: So they had only 110 targets to tight-ends the entire year, which is very low for the ravens.
34:41
[SPEAKER_01]: But the quarterback rating throwing through them was like 140, 12 touchdowns, no interceptions as a headliner of the stats.
34:47
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you add up all of them had good stats by the way, even Charlie Colar, who had very,
34:54
[SPEAKER_01]: brief playing time at nine targets, which wasn't even from Lamar was a, was a, was a, was a positive, but anyway, 12 touchdowns and winter sections.
35:06
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not been the trend in recent years for the Ravens when they've had more targets.
35:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And I've talked on this show, a fair amount or about how.
35:14
[SPEAKER_01]: marginal targets have less value and it's kind of like think of it like this.
35:19
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're trying to arrange Colton cowsers playing time for the Orioles, you know he's going to hit right handers a lot better.
35:26
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to hit left handers and yet you still you can't afford to have between players everywhere and see you say
35:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Boy, I'd be really be upset if Colton Couser only had 400 at bats because that means he's not playing every day.
35:38
[SPEAKER_01]: But the truth of the matter is, his marginal at bats against left handers are not very good and so he drags down as overall staff.
35:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Same thing applies to marginal targets.
35:47
[SPEAKER_01]: They tend to be the Andrews bailout targets or other places where you don't have as many wide receiving options.
35:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And so Andrews is a guy you're feeding the ball to like Chamberlain in the post as I often, you know, make that analogy.
36:00
[SPEAKER_01]: that he's he feed everything through him and and that's not a good position either because a defense is cheat on that they're they're looking to bracket him they're looking to get get any tip or overthrow and make that into an interception or whatnot and we see that in the past too.
36:13
[SPEAKER_01]: By restricting the number of targets they actually got more value now.
36:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I think if they put those guys both on the field, they have to figure out how to get them more targets.
36:22
[SPEAKER_01]: But I also don't see that increasing back to the 190 level even if they both play.
36:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we'd be, and it was about 190 was the year before.
36:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I think, you know, they'd be lucky to get 145 to 150 targets with not too much of a drop off.
36:39
[SPEAKER_01]: in rate.
36:39
[SPEAKER_01]: The obviously, that rate is not sustainable at the 12th touchdowns, no interception ratios, not sustainable even if they only had one tight entity was the best tight end in recent memory.
36:48
[SPEAKER_01]: It wouldn't be sustainable.
36:51
[SPEAKER_01]: But it could, you know, probably get a lower a slightly lower 125 pass or an exact 120 with more targets.
37:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is, you know, potentially something that's doable if they get Isaiah likely into the
37:07
[SPEAKER_01]: whatever it's it's not easy to get too tight too tight ends options period because they run a lot of the similar depth of route.
37:16
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you need wider series to do that.
37:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Not 100% agree there.
37:20
[SPEAKER_00]: It's it would be a challenge.
37:21
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be a challenge for Mokin and some people say stop for him to earn his money.
37:25
[SPEAKER_00]: The other thing I'd also just circling back to the EPA part of it, I'm still not positive that's derived the causers to receiving tight ends.
37:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Not many teams have to receiving tight ends perhaps.
37:36
[SPEAKER_00]: They're using a blocking tight end, which is improving the pass protection, which is really the driving force behind that efficiency there.
37:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So circling back to the question, I would make that trade, although you're
37:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're using a pick you're doing another two for one, you're dealing from a strength in this place where you're not creating a hole.
37:55
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would I would be I would sign off on that one.
37:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
38:00
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, an interesting one.
38:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And if they did move up to number 10, the guy, they get probably get as Fashana, the second left tackle in the entire draft.
38:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I think, you know, they know who they're getting because they do it while the jets are on the clock.
38:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And they try and maximize that value, but it's a very exciting proposition.
38:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So anyway, great idea.
38:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, David, for suggesting that.
38:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I wish you come on the show yourself to talk it through
38:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I think that's hit in terms of trading.
38:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So we've got one major thing we haven't done.
38:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is kind of put a stake on the ground on who we think in order.
38:40
[SPEAKER_01]: We would take for the ravens among the guys who are between 21 and a higher in the consensus mock.
38:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So we went to one specific mock produced in that belief yesterday.
38:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Are we for some, which is pretty much industry standard?
38:56
[SPEAKER_00]: It's apparently the best one.
38:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so and and we can we don't need to give them the website on that, but anyway, that's it's it's it's out there and it's it's a interesting mock so why don't we go through in reverse order of who you would take among the guys 21 and higher to to go for the draft or who's your best guy.
39:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I actually have seven, so, because we added names, because he wasn't in the, anyway, I shouldn't say that.
39:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Kingsley is my number seven.
39:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
39:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Kingsley will be my cut off if he is gone, then you're looking at a trade down.
39:34
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I'm on the board with that anyway, and I didn't have him my top six, but I'll throw on his mind number seven, so we can both have seven in this case.
39:43
[SPEAKER_01]: He probably would even be my number six guy, honestly, if I was if I think, because I really think the Ravens might need to reach at left tackle to make sure they don't get shut out in this draft.
39:55
[SPEAKER_01]: And reach could be done by reaching.
39:56
[SPEAKER_01]: It could be done by trading.
39:57
[SPEAKER_01]: It could be done in a couple different ways, but they're gonna have to lose more value than they like.
40:02
[SPEAKER_01]: to get their left tackle secured based on where they are.
40:05
[SPEAKER_01]: And they have the luxury, it's a year away, but anyway, put me down for Sua Matta Iya, either at six or seven here.
40:11
[SPEAKER_01]: How about you number six guy?
40:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Cooper Disneyland, the Jean, I think he has a high floor.
40:16
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not at the top of my list of my, you know, whistless, but I'd be happy with that pick.
40:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he, as I mentioned earlier, I think he can kind of be versatile.
40:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason there is some redundancy we call Hamilton, which is why he's not higher on the list, but I think still he prints a value to safety and to boundary corner back outside corner back that that would be helpful.
40:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'd be happy with him if there is wealth.
40:41
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, fair enough, he's number five on my list.
40:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And I agree, I think we've talked at some length in the first show, I think, more than in the second about disease limitations within the Ravens scheme.
40:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly how he gets on the field.
40:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't typically worry too much about how cornerbacks boundary cornerbacks get on the field in particular, because there's so many injuries there.
41:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Ravens also have a pretty effective history of rotating.
41:03
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, the year Marlon Humphrey was the Ravens defensive was the Ravens team MVP.
41:08
[SPEAKER_01]: he started the season rotating at corner and worked into having the full-time job by the end of the year.
41:14
[SPEAKER_01]: But Dijin anyway is my number five guy.
41:17
[SPEAKER_01]: So I guess we'll move on and do my number six guy.
41:20
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is maybe going to surprise people because I've been pretty much on the left tackle band wagging the whole time.
41:24
[SPEAKER_01]: But Jackson Powers Johnson of Oregon, it would be the guy.
41:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it gives you tremendous versatility to figure out where your interior offensive line needs need to be filled.
41:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's your backup center.
41:37
[SPEAKER_01]: If anything happens to the lender bomb, certainly will be an outstanding guard.
41:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I waste 328 pounds.
41:43
[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have any of the issues with body type.
41:49
[SPEAKER_01]: At the position with the exception of length, he's not a particularly long guy, but he is good enough that at a left guard, he should be fine and for pulling responsibilities, he should be fine.
42:00
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I really like him a lot.
42:02
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a lot of people have him at the very top of their interior offensive line list, some people have Barton because they think he'll move and that's legitimate as well.
42:11
[SPEAKER_01]: But JPJ to me is the number one interior offensive line in this draft.
42:14
[SPEAKER_01]: If they get him at number 30, it's a consolation prize.
42:18
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's it's number six and my list fair enough.
42:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm a little bit more rigid on positions.
42:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's just my personality type, but Michael Crawford and Chris on the deep cover pod that are really good job, you know, talking about JPJ really enjoyed that on one of the recent episodes.
42:35
[SPEAKER_00]: My number five is going to be Mr. Coolie in chemistry.
42:41
[SPEAKER_00]: High floor guy again coming from Alabama.
42:44
[SPEAKER_00]: plug-and-play type, I don't think he has an all-proceiling necessarily, also dealing with a foot injury, but the need of corner, I think that's a pretty good intersection of need and value as you like to say, we'll be the cool-a-tech.
43:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Right there with you.
43:00
[SPEAKER_01]: He's my number four guy.
43:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Only a slight value at 30.
43:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's an extreme value.
43:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree on the medical flag.
43:07
[SPEAKER_01]: There's going to be people who have him Black dotted as I would call it because that's what the Ravens do or used to anyway when they had the plaques.
43:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Bye.
43:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I think
43:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Cool lead is a guy.
43:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that is a pretty safe pick at number 30.
43:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Not as safe as, you know, probably some offensive lineman, but I think a, you know, quality football player that's going to be a good NFL player.
43:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Your number, see his mind number four guys, we're down to your number four guy.
43:35
[SPEAKER_00]: My number four is, I don't know, Mitchell.
43:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I know you're not a huge fan of, but I think the upside is show peeling and maybe he is a player that, like some of these tackles can, with another year development, then really, really hit the ground running as Bateman departs in,
43:53
[SPEAKER_00]: next year, if you if you if you stays with us this next year, I like I like a lot of the factors of his gain.
44:00
[SPEAKER_00]: He has the speed he has the body control has good hands and the athletic system and again the surplus value potential if you compare Mitchell with Zay both on rookie contracts for the next few years the mark of really do some damage while he's always on this card contract.
44:20
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, while I'm not the biggest Mitchell fan, I will say in terms of the total skill set involved, he certainly is a reasonable guy on my list.
44:30
[SPEAKER_01]: I have Mitchell as the number eight guy with a second round pick and I want to actually go back and see if there's anything else that you didn't pick up on.
44:40
[SPEAKER_01]: that would be a reason why I really, really do not want him in the first route other than he's a left tackle.
44:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, his height has been inflated on some reports.
44:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I've seen him listed at least as high as 64, but he's really only 61 in change.
44:54
[SPEAKER_01]: So that was, that was something he had 9.8 yards per target, which is very good, but not in the, at the top of the, of the wide receiver class bite by any stretch.
45:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, uh, nothing, nothing terrible
45:10
[SPEAKER_01]: He has nine career miss tackles forced.
45:13
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy at six one two oh five six one and change two oh five was only nine career miss tackles forced.
45:20
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's it's not a you would figure him for more yac ability but he had three point two yac per reception this last year.
45:30
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a bad number and that that is by the way that's the primary difference between his yards per target
45:37
[SPEAKER_01]: And some of the other really good receivers in this draft is is an inability after the catch.
45:42
[SPEAKER_01]: So that was a problem.
45:44
[SPEAKER_01]: 1330 and contested catches is probably a little bit bad for the NFL now in terms of what was going on a Texas, he might have been the bailout guy who got a lot of those receptions of what he made it more difficult for him or the guy that the other defenses were keying on.
46:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I might last my final comment about I'm not going to show in the in the, in the, why to see your notice is, is I'll read to you directly he's one of the few players I actually fear the ravens might draft at 30 that if you would be a bad pick, not sure when he becomes a value maybe middle around to.
46:20
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just it's this combination of factors that are a little bit by the way, not a great deep threat either, which is it, which is another reason doesn't necessarily have the whole route tree that he gives you.
46:30
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's he certainly is a physical specimen and what's this rascore like is really high right.
46:37
[SPEAKER_00]: fifth best of any wide receiver all time.
46:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, see why?
46:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Why does the guy like that have so many problems actually playing football at this point?
46:46
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's playing it, you know, in a passing conference for a team that really wants to get him the football.
46:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I just I I guess I I really have a problem with that.
46:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So anyway, Mitchell is not one of the guys on my list and you know, we had a good
47:00
[SPEAKER_01]: We had a good talk about this.
47:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I did the wider Siever show with James Ogden and he also didn't want the Ravens to draft him at 30, which was kind of interesting to me, but Polarizing.
47:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Polarizing guy.
47:11
[SPEAKER_00]: No doubt.
47:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Polarizing guy.
47:13
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not number one is my number four, but personally, I think the juice would be worth the squeeze all that one.
47:20
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
47:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to have a hard time believing.
47:22
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't have the same top three here, but go ahead with your number three guy.
47:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, sir.
47:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I think a, you know, long lean, sticky man, coverage guy, a lot to like there.
47:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that was the highest on the consensus or maybe secondized.
47:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, Wiggins is my number one corner in this draft, and I had little problems with all the other guys, um, with, with Quinion Mitchell, it's a matter of quality competition space.
47:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, I don't believe in it.
47:55
[SPEAKER_01]: And by the way, the ideal guy for seeing if Quinion Mitchell is really going to be the guy, a lot of people have him number one now, by the way, corner sky played it to Lido.
48:04
[SPEAKER_01]: The ravens just got another guy who was Quinion Mitchell in 2019, exactly five years ago, and that's Kadar Holman.
48:12
[SPEAKER_01]: The cops between these two guys are ridiculous, both from Toledo, both 433 and 439 in terms of speeds.
48:20
[SPEAKER_01]: They both got it in terms of being able to pick it up and lay it down.
48:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And Kadar Holman,
48:24
[SPEAKER_01]: This will now be his 10th stint with his 8th team with the Ravens coming up this year.
48:30
[SPEAKER_01]: That should concern you because quality of competition obviously played into that.
48:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So I had Queen, I dropped Queen on Mitchell number five on my list of corners for that reason.
48:39
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's a guy I really don't want the Ravens to draft at 30.
48:42
[SPEAKER_01]: So if he's available, would it be the worst pick?
48:46
[SPEAKER_01]: It might not be thankful he's not of this consensus board so we don't have to worry about it.
48:49
[SPEAKER_01]: But I kind of think he's a second round player to me.
48:54
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
48:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
48:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So anyway, we can's a top guy in the draft for me.
48:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's he's right up there for me too.
49:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd be I'd be very, very excited.
49:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I know some folks are offense no matter what.
49:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't care if the first 29 picks are offense.
49:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Take the 30 best offense a player.
49:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm out there.
49:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I I do Jeff cornerbacks and need for sure.
49:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Just a rebound cornerbacks right up there with tackle.
49:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Number two is blatant for me.
49:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, you know, none of these guys are perfect prospects.
49:23
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to get a perfect prospect in number 30, but I think there's a lot to work with there.
49:28
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot to like there and considering the need very, very, very good pick.
49:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I actually had it with my number one to revise the consensus.
49:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Right, okay.
49:39
[SPEAKER_01]: So to me, Guyton is right at the intersection of need and value and number 30.
49:44
[SPEAKER_01]: If the Ravens got him, it's going to be the biggest sigh of relief you'll hear from me.
49:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be saying, I could be excited.
49:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I guess more by another pick, it's just going to be a complete sigh of relief if Guyton is the guy.
49:56
[SPEAKER_01]: 6, 8, 3, 22, you've got plus athleticism across the board, 34 to 8th inch alarms.
50:02
[SPEAKER_01]: That's plenty long, so it'll be fine in that.
50:04
[SPEAKER_01]: You actually converted to offensive tackle in college two years in is, but two years it, sorry, not two years in, but in college two years of TCU and then two years at OU.
50:15
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm very much still learning the position from technique wise now that's a positive from my perspective you know that that he could play better than he has at at Oklahoma and you know he does some other things that they're not right, but he's the best raw clay prospect in this draw press probably even better than mims in my book who we both have as the number one guy the Ravens should get.
50:37
[SPEAKER_00]: We certainly do, we certainly do.
50:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's some injury risk there, and there's something in experience there.
50:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was Nate Thysson said, he's not roll.
50:44
[SPEAKER_00]: He just didn't experience it.
50:45
[SPEAKER_00]: There is a difference.
50:46
[SPEAKER_00]: There is a difference.
50:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It's, you had the technique down.
50:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you're not as consistent as you could be, but some folks, or some guys just don't, they need to, they don't have the technique at all.
50:56
[SPEAKER_00]: He, so yeah, memes is my number one.
50:58
[SPEAKER_00]: He was hired in 20 when I did this yesterday, so I didn't include him.
51:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we went back in pre-show production.
51:05
[SPEAKER_00]: and he'd split down a 22 so yeah that would be a guy that yeah would check a whole lot of boxes for the ravens from right different levels.
51:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I will say I have one reservation about MIMS is I think there's actually a pretty reasonable chance he has to stay at right tackle as a pro.
51:25
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's a guy who has gotten by at Georgia on monolithic size.
51:30
[SPEAKER_01]: He's absolutely enormous.
51:31
[SPEAKER_01]: When I say that, I'm usually talking about a player who regarding a player relative to the size of other players in his day, Bryant McKinney was
51:44
[SPEAKER_01]: height, all that stuff.
51:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Nymphs is really good at depending.
51:48
[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have total left tackle feet.
51:50
[SPEAKER_01]: So he's going to have to depend on a lot of 12 to 6 blocking techniques where he uses his length to force that guy around the edge of the pocket.
51:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And even bendy edges should have a lot of trouble with a 340 pound guy who has real length, you know, jamming up.
52:06
[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing is going to have to very much depend on 36 and an eighth inch arms.
52:10
[SPEAKER_01]: He needs to be the best puncher in the national football league.
52:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, he doesn't need to do that.
52:15
[SPEAKER_01]: He needs to be very effective using his length to get by playing left tackle.
52:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he can disrupt a lot of pastoral things there, but he would be the guy that that I would be very excited to get.
52:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And even if I think the chase is only 50 percent,
52:29
[SPEAKER_01]: He ends up on the left side and he will get a trial.
52:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Some team, whoever drafts him, they're giving him a trial on the left side.
52:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that, you know, he still represents outstanding value, and potentially has a significantly higher ceiling than a guy.
52:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.
52:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Very well said.
52:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I think the top three would really be William Sinnerios, any of the top three men's guiding a witness.
52:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll keep our fingers crossed and say a prayers.
52:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you have any other players from maybe the top 20 that like you hope to interact with?
53:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I did this because I eliminated two guys off my list.
53:04
[SPEAKER_01]: But I have two guys that boy if they drop the 30 I just I wouldn't be upset getting either of these guys and I'd be very, very excited about it in fact, and I know you could pick a Roman don't say it that don't do that.
53:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I probably excited about Brian Thomas.
53:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
53:22
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he really fits the bill perfectly as an X.
53:25
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're talking outside of offensive tackles.
53:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I like Jared Verselot personally, but I don't think he's getting there, but he probably be the other guy that he fits the way the Ravens play pretty well.
53:40
[SPEAKER_01]: So, first, probably the second or third edge rusher taken.
53:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I would think, I mean, I know Nealand has come up in the ratings recently, but probably the second or third, but anyway, I love Brian Thomas.
53:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I had one of the greatest deep all years in the history of college football last year.
53:59
[SPEAKER_01]: PFF is doing a great thing in their draft guide this year in dividing the route types.
54:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if you saw it, but they had a number of post-corner and go we ran and the total of post-corner and goes that he ran was 19, 13 of those were touchdowns.
54:15
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a, there's a, there's not the number he ran.
54:16
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry.
54:17
[SPEAKER_01]: There's the ones he was targeted on.
54:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So, yes, you can give some of the credit to Malik neighbors.
54:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, some of the credit definitely goes to to, to, to, um, Daniel for, for getting the ball out there.
54:27
[SPEAKER_01]: But boy, that's an unbelievable thing.
54:30
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got to have some wiggle in his route to do that kind of thing and some real speed to, to make those, uh, uh, sluggo and stop and go, uh, moves, uh, work.
54:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Most of those were go routes by the way, 14 go routes in that group in 10 touchdowns.
54:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Just like,
54:44
[SPEAKER_01]: These are insane numbers.
54:45
[SPEAKER_01]: They don't make any sense, but yeah, just absurd.
54:48
[SPEAKER_01]: The other guy, if he would somehow draft and I'm back at left tackle now, again, is JC Latham, Valabama.
54:55
[SPEAKER_01]: If he drops, I'd be more happy probably with him than Gaiton, even though he's only played on the right tackle in college, I think Latham is a very easy projection to left tackle the pros.
55:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I definitely trust your judgment on all events of Lyme and Ken, one of the best out there.
55:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Interestingly, the PFF guys don't, they don't love Thomas.
55:16
[SPEAKER_00]: They actually have Mitchell, Bob Thomas, and I've heard some of their podcast and stuff, and they think Thomas has bus potential.
55:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't necessarily see it, but just thought they're interesting, caveat to throw in there.
55:29
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, well, very good.
55:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Very good.
55:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Voss always a pleasure doing any sort of show with you, but this has just been, this, this draft season has been fun, continue on with the, with the Friday morning GM has been great this whole off season.
55:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Tell folks where they can reach you online or read your work.
55:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I'm at Bacini's Bita on Twitter X. I am Co-Manager, editor and author for both one Bita on blog.
55:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I also do another podcast called The Ravens Way.
55:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And you can also catch me on Ken's Friday Night Drive, so which I'm very much looking forward to.
56:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well let's talk about that a little bit.
56:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for thanks for setting me up there.
56:06
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a big thing we want to plug this week is Thursday Friday Saturday.
56:09
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll be on for every pick of the draft.
56:11
[SPEAKER_01]: We believe certainly until the Ravens are done at a minimum and our coverage is completely Ravens centric.
56:20
[SPEAKER_01]: works off a co-host and panelist system.
56:22
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll vases the co-host for day two.
56:25
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll do a little bit of recap on day one and then we'll jump right into the picks.
56:29
[SPEAKER_01]: And as the picks are occurring, we have an organic method so we don't want anybody tipping picks.
56:34
[SPEAKER_01]: That's really important.
56:35
[SPEAKER_01]: We go in and we just listen to picks and we all kind of react to them at the same time as they're announced.
56:40
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're working off the same feed.
56:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're all watching you to the NFL network or ESPN.
56:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And
56:44
[SPEAKER_01]: In the past, we've had some people watching Twitter or something and they'll tick picks and what, we really don't want people doing that, but it is a very interactive opportunity.
56:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So you can ask your questions directly and jump right in, it will have an opportunity for people to come on air live if they would like to ask and potentially interact with the question.
57:03
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll send you a special link to do that if you have interest, but it's just a
57:10
[SPEAKER_01]: For a number of psychopaths who really appreciate the draft that really enjoy that, it's a very relaxing 12 to 15 to 17 hours to spend with some similar people.
57:22
[SPEAKER_01]: We do have rotating panelists for exactly that reason.
57:25
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't, you know, we don't want to give you the same opinions for all those hours, but we have a good number of people coming through and it's always been a lot of fun.
57:33
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been one of the big things that looks forward to during the year.
57:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say, I know I married the right woman.
57:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Because she says, I miss us having the the the draft time together.
57:43
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the most romantic weekend of the year that we could just sit on the camera's hours and play again.
57:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I have a couple comments.
57:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll tell you about that after the show.
57:57
[SPEAKER_01]: For Vosla Rico.
57:58
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is getting me Q6 and goodbye.
58:00
[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll talk to you on Friday morning.
58:02
[SPEAKER_01]: She had again with our next show.