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Week 8 2026 College Football Picks for the 10 Best Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, y'all, it is week eight. Look at this card.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss at Texas in primetime. Texas sitting on a
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: two-game losing streak. Tennessee going into Columbia, South Carolina, off
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: the biggest win of their season. You got a BYU
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: team that just knocked off the number two team in
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: the country. They're heading all the way across the country
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: to Orlando. You got Houston at Utah. That's a Big
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: 12 game that won't kick until after 9 o'clock Central time.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: That's before I even get to Indiana at Michigan, where
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: the Hoosiers walk into the big house as a seven-point favorite.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: And I don't know that I can remember the last
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: time Indiana was favored over Michigan at Michigan. From what
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I can tell, it was 1968, which is insane. Ten games,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: ten reasons to cancel whatever you had planned on Saturday. And,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: of course, the other thing, in case you didn't already know,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: this show is officially presented by PrizePix. So we're going
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: to have some fun with that tonight. All right, strap in.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Let's get to work. Welcome in. This is Winning Cures Everything.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: It's a college football podcast now proudly presented by PrizePix.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on all the socials.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: And to get things started off right, do me a favor.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Go ahead, hit that subscribe button, hit that like button,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: jump in the comments with your favorite picks for this
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: week's card. We got 10 games. This week, we're going
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: to go in kickoff order. Any trend under 10 games,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I'm going to call it small, so treat it like
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: a rumor, basically. Injuries are... Early in the week, make
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: sure and check on Thursday and Friday before you start
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: spending a bunch of money on these games because we're
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: at that point in the season. Injuries matter. Injuries absolutely matter.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Before we start everything, we have to. We have to
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: recap what we have already done on the season. And, well,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: first off, I'm going to tell you this. Subscribe to
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: the other channel, youtube.com slash wcepix. That's where all of
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: the individual games are. Little tiny videos. We cut them
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: all up for you so you can go search for
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: the ones that you really want to watch there. If
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: you want to go back and re-watch, you can do that.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, granted, you can do that here as well.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: We got chapters in the description. It's easy to do.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: But I've also tossed some extra games over there. All
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: of the midweek games, Tuesday through Thursday, are all over
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: on WCE Picks. Go ahead and check that out. But
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: as I was saying, we have to look at what
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: we've done thus far on the seasons. And everything started
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: off really, really well this year. But we have hit
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: a slump. I think that's the best way to put it.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: We've hit a slump. Last week, my official show picks
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: went 11-21. And yes, we are including the weeknight games.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Those from the WCE Picks YouTube channel. But 11-21, the
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: model went 14-18. Underdog picks last week went 6-9. Overall,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: on the year, As you can see, 94 and 86.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: That is 52.2%. The model picks, 94 and 86. We
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: have matched up there. 52.2 and the underdog picks are
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: 42 and 37. 53.2%. We got to do better. We
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: got to do better. So, let's start it off right now.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Let's get to the games. Starting the SEC 11 a.m.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone on ABC. LSU goes to Auburn.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: And LSU a 7.5 point favorite right now, total of 50.5.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about where these two teams are coming from.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: LSU 5-2, they just beat up on Mississippi State 31-0.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Total shutout. That game was never in doubt. Auburn 4-2 now.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Last week they went up to Athens. They beat the
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: number one team in the country 27-24 on a last
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: second field goal. Auburn had not beaten Georgia in forever. Forever.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: They had not won in Athens in, what, like 20 years?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was crazy. Auburn just won their biggest
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: game of the season. Now they get a noon crowd
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: at home with a 7.5-point underdog tag on them, right?
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Textbook emotional spot. And I'll say it plain. This is
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the one where Auburn either plays loose or plays like
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: it already got a trophy, right? The line has moved
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit. LSU opened around 6.5. It's now sitting
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: at 7.5. Total is flat around 50.5. As far as
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: the trends go, on the total, the board wants the under.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin, 16-28 to the over in SEC games since 2021.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: That's a 44-game sample. That's a real sample size. He
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: is 14-25 to the over off of an under. That's
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: 39 games. That's another real sample size. And LSU is
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: off of an under. I mean, shutouts tend to do that.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Now for the descent. Alex Golish, 19-9 to the over
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: in conference games. That's 28 games. So Auburn's side of this...
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: It likes points, right? My numbers say LSU by 11.76.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: That is the stats model, minus 11.76. That's a lot
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: more than 7.5. It also leans slightly over because I'm
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: at 51.53 for the projected total. So the board and
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: the model are kind of pulling in different directions. I'd
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: be worried about that one. So looking at this... Why
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: does the model like LSU? LSU is ninth in points
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: per drive, or in net points per drive, ninth in
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: defensive success rate. They are sixth in offensive success rate.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Auburn gives up red zone scores at a 94% clip.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: That is 124th in the country. They are 83rd in
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: defensive red zone touchdown rate. They are currently, Auburn, let's see,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: number 69 in points per scoring opportunity. LSU's offense, number 34.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Pretty good. Pretty good. As far as injuries, LSU's linebacker
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: room has taken a beating. Witt Weeks, Charles Ross, Tylan Singleton,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: they're all listed. Jackson Harris, that receiver's questionable. Prince Will,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: you mind me, Ellen, on the defensive line, he's questionable.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: For Auburn, their quarterback, Byron Brown, is listed as probable,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: which is good news because the run game is the
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: engine for their offense. The last meeting between these two,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: LSU won that one 48-18. They haven't played since 2023.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I never would have imagined that it would have been
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: that long in between time, but either way. Next week,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: LSU's on a bye. Auburn goes to Ole Miss. Nobody
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: looking ahead here except Auburn looking back at what they
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: just did, right? You start looking at both of these
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: teams have played pretty tough competition. Both have faced really
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: good rushing offenses. Both have faced really strong defenses. And Overall,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: opponent PPA margin, both are pretty good. Auburn, slightly tougher.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Sagarin strength of schedule is number 8 for Auburn and
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: number 16 for LSU. And when I look at this,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go LSU here. So the power rating
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: has LSU minus 6.9. The stats model has LSU minus 11.76.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: The line right now is LSU minus 7.5. I will
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: take LSU minus 7.5. I liked it a lot more
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: at 6.5, but something to watch out for. LSU now
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: going into their eighth straight game. Their bye is next week.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: They are beat up. Auburn just came off of a bye,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: and they went down to Georgia and looked a whole
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: lot better. Now, on the stat sheet, they still got dominated,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: but they took advantage of mistakes by Georgia. Georgia, who
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: also had not had a bye yet. They got their
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: bye this week. They're going to play Florida next. Right?
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: LSU going into their eighth game. Curious what they're going
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: to look like. But as far as the show pick,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: LSU minus 7.5 is where we're at. Indiana going to
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Michigan for game number two here. Indiana a seven-point favorite.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Total of 41.5 on this. This one also 11 a.m. Central.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: This one's on Fox. Indiana as a seven-point favorite at Michigan. Like,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: say it slow. Right? Because it's still... Takes a little
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: bit to get used to. Hoosiers had a 22-game winning streak.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: That ended last Saturday in 19-15, lost to Ohio State
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: on a play where the replay showed a foot out
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: of bounds. But, man, the play call was there. I mean,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: it was right there. Nick Marsh, if he had gotten
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: that foot in bounds, they'd win the game. Because I
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: don't believe there's any way that Ohio State was driving
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: back down the field to even kick a field goal
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: to tie it. I just don't buy it. I don't
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: believe it. So, Indiana now 6-1 on the year. Michigan... surprisingly,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: as bad as everybody says they are, they were 4-2.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: They come in off a 21-18 win over Penn State.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Wildest part about that is all 21 points came off turnovers.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Whittingham finally pulled Bryce Underwood at halftime. Tommy Carr sparked
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: the comeback. As of Monday, nobody told us who's starting
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: on Saturday. But man, I don't know how you don't
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: start Tommy Carr. I think he's going to be the
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: guy going forward. But we'll see. We'll see. So that's
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: your headline. Indiana's heartbroken. Michigan's got a quarterback controversy. And
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: we've got a total of 41.5 on this thing. The
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: total is probably one of the more interesting numbers on
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the board. Opened at 52.5 back in the offseason. It
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: has dropped 11 points since then. And I completely understand it, right?
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Dropped 11 points. The side has moved one from six
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: up to seven, but this thing was 7.5 at one
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: point on Sunday. Trends say to go to the over.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Indiana 18-7 to the over off of an under since 2021.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: That's 25 games. Indiana is off of an under. Kurt
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Cignetti 34-17 to the over as a favorite since 2021.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: That is 51 games. That's a huge sample. Huge sample. So,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: a lot of overs there, and this is a pretty
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: explosive offense. As you can tell, number five in the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: country in offensive explosiveness. The question is whether or not
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Michigan can do enough to get you there. My model
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: agrees with the over, right? I've got this game at
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: almost 47 points. Stats projected total is 46.88. That's five
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: and a half points higher than the number. So the
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: trends and the model line up, and honestly, that's kind
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: of rare, right? The stats back it up, right? Indiana's defense,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: third in success rate, third against the run. Michigan's run
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: game is 95th in success rate. But we don't know
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: what this offense is going to look like with a
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: competent quarterback. That's not to diminish Bryce Underwood, but I mean,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: your eyes ain't lying to you when you watch this.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Indiana's quarterback, third in QBR. Michigan's pass defense is ranked
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: 109th in QBR on my sheet. Yeah, just crazy. No, sorry,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Michigan's offensive QBR is number 109. Their pass defense is
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: pretty good against the pass, number 27 against the pass.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Everything about the Michigan defense is good, right? Indiana's second
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: in the country in fewest penalties. Michigan is number 109. So,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: big difference there. Turnover margin, Indiana number 40. They're number
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: 5 in giveaways per game. They never turn the ball over.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Michigan number 124 in giveaways per game. Number 103 in
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: turnover margin. Michigan only runs about 58 plays a game.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: That is 135th. Indiana is 123rd at 60.57. which makes
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: sense for why the total is low. They both are
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: outside of the top 100 as far as plays per minute.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Michigan number 114, Indiana number 103. When you're looking at injuries, Indiana's,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: you know, the running back, Kobe Martin, is still out.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Michigan's offensive line is kind of a mess. Sprigg and
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Norton are both out. Jake Gornara, you guys correct me
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: on that. Jump in the comments, tell me. Three linemen
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: having problems there. Also out for Michigan, they've got the receiver, Bell.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: They've got the tight end, Marshall. And the edge, Julius Holley.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: So depth is certainly an issue here. The last meeting
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: between these two, Indiana won 20-15 in 2024. That was
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: in Bloomington. Next week, Indiana hosts Minnesota. And then Michigan
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: goes to Rutgers, so there's not a look-ahead spot here.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Nothing crazy like that. As far as who has played
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: the more difficult schedule, Indiana by a long shot. Number
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: 17 in opponent PPA margin. The number eight offensive PPA faced?
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Michigan has not faced good offenses. Number 128. As far
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: as defenses, they both faced top 60 defenses on average.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: It's pretty good. When you start diving into the current
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, the Sagarin thing is driving me crazy. Crazy.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Because when you look at who Indiana has played versus
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: who Michigan has played, I think he has played a
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: tougher strength of schedule. But Sagarin still has it, you know,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: 42-34 is what it is. Looking at the spread records,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Indiana 1-6 against the spread, which is just mind-blowing to me,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: but that's what happens when you win a national title.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: But Michigan 2-4 against the spread. You look at the
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: five factors when you average in strength of schedule and talent,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Indiana at No. 15, Michigan at No.
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: 31.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: But when you look at the raw numbers... number 11,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: and number 63. Now, what we don't know is what
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Michigan is going to look like on offense, having Tommy
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Carr for the whole game. How about developing a scheme
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: around it, a game plan with him in mind? We
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what that looks like yet. But I do
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: think Indiana is going to be mad about the loss.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be an Alabama situation.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: This is the eighth straight week of games for Indiana.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: and Michigan has had a bye. So that number going
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: from 7.5 back down to 7, I get it. My
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: stats model has Indiana minus 10.08. My power rating has
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Indiana minus 8. I think Indiana does what they need
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: to do here. Talent is still on Michigan's side, number 13.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: But we haven't seen this Michigan team look really good
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: just yet. I think the defense is going to show
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: up some. I don't know that I can count on
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: the Michigan offense, even with a new play caller. So
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: that Indiana success rate number three and the running game
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: number three, Michigan has not been good at anything on offense.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: So the fact that this got back down to seven,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: we'll go with the favorite again. Give me the road favorite.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I might be foolish with this, but we'll see. Give
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: me the road favorite, Indiana, minus 7. Game number three,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Texas A & M at Alabama. This one in Tuscaloosa, Alabama,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: a 14.5-point home favorite, total of 50.5 on this. 2.30 p.m.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's Time Zone on ABC. It is Alabama's
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: homecoming game. Now here's how we got here. Alabama's lost
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: two straight, 20-17 to Georgia, 26-10 at Tennessee. They are
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: now 5-2. They are fighting for their playoff lives. Texas
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: A & M, 4-3. They were 1-3 in the SEC
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: last week. They played the Citadel. 141-0. I think that
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: was the right score. Backups were in for the second half.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: That's nice. That's nice considering this part of the year.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, these are two teams that need a bye
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: so badly. So badly. Banged up is what it is.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: The line is interesting, right? The opener on the sheet
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: showed Alabama by 2.5. That was in the offseason. Very
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: stale line. When the sheets got built this week, it
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: was Bama minus 15.5. It's now dropped to 14.5, so
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: there's been a little bit of money on A & M,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: but not a lot. Total has come down four points.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: It was 54.5, now down to 50.5. On Sunday, it
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: was 51.5. Trends are pretty clear. Bama 12-3 against the
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: spread as a home favorite of seven or more since 2024.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: That's the Kalen DeBoer era. That's 15 games. Decent enough
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: sample size. 24-10-1 since 2021. That is 34 games. Big sample.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: It says lay the points. My numbers, as you can
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: see on the screen, have Bama by 15 and change.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: So stats model, Bama minus 17.17. Power rating, Bama minus 13.3.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Total is a touch over, about two points over. I've
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: got it at 52.32. It's come down to 50.5. I
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: can understand because, again, both of these teams are playing
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: their eighth straight game And they are just beat up, right?
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Explosiveness numbers for A & M are just absolutely brutal.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Number 128 in the country in net explosiveness. 137th in
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: passing explosiveness. On offense, 135th defending explosive pass plays. Their
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: net explosiveness is 128th. Alabama's explosive pass game is 13th.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good, right? I mean, this right here is
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: where you're looking. The issue for Alabama is right here.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: Havoc rate. Bama number 121 in Havoc allowed. Number 68
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: for Texas A & M. Can Alabama's beat-up offensive line
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: defend against this Texas A & M defensive line? The
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: A & M defensive line has not been very good
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: all year. They're number 57 in offensive line yards allowed.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: They're number 83 in stuff rate. Bama's rushing game ain't
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: much better at that. Number 80 in stuff rate allowed.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: Number 57 in offensive line yards. But the explosiveness is there.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Number 30 in rushing explosiveness as well. A & M
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: is number 77 in rushing explosiveness allowed. As far as injuries,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: A & M lost receiver Mario Craver. He's out. You
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: got five more players on their list that are out
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: for the season. That includes Bussey and Madden Williams and
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: the running back Tiger Ryden. It's basically a skill group
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: that is thinning out, right? And Bama's got problems, too.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: EJ Crowell, questionable this week. Their edge guy is out.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Defensive tackle Terrence Green is still out. That became a
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: huge problem. They could not stop the run against Tennessee
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: at all. And you can... I mean, what's crazy is
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: that one game still didn't really mess them up. They're
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: number 12 in rushing success rate allowed, number 35 in
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness. But, I mean, we watched it last week.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: The last meeting between these two, Bama won 26-20 in 2023.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: That was Saban's last year. We are now three years
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: removed from that. A & M has not won in
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Tuscaloosa since 2012. That was Johnny Manziel, right? Both teams
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: are on a bye next week. No real look ahead
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: other than, holy crap, do both of them need a break.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, these are two teams that have just backs
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: against the wall. For Bama, this is a bounce-back game
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: at home. Certainly need this one. When you're looking at
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: who these two teams have played, Bama has played the
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: significantly stronger schedule. A & M number 81 in opponent
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: PPA margin. Which is why they're sitting at 4-3, even
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: though everybody thinks they're god-awful. Number 117 in rushing offenses faced.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Alabama number 5 in that. Number 22 in offenses faced
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: for Bama. Number 81 for A & M. Defenses faced,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Bama number 44. A & M number 78. Huge difference.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: in strength of opponents so far for both of these.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Alabama still, even after the last two weeks, number one
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: in the country in five factors plus strength of schedule
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: plus talent rank. It's pretty good. A & M is
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: number 14 in that. And don't forget, I mean, the
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: five factors, like, you can look it up. If you
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: want to be a member over at buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: I put out the five factors rank every week. Your
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: number one raw five factors team for, like, the umpteenth
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: week in a row is New Mexico. They do everything
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: you're supposed to do to win games. Field position, efficiency,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: you know, explosiveness, all that kind of turnovers, all that.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: They do it all. But Bama is number one when
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: you include everything. raw numbers, Bama number 19, A &
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: M number 31, A & M' s issue is they can't
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: throw the football for nothing. But they can run it
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Number 33 in rushing success rate. Can
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Bama stop the run? That's where this whole thing comes
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: down to. I understand why the total is going down,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: because right now it looks like, I mean, the way
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Tennessee played Alabama, it looked like they knew every single
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: play that they were going to run that game. If
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: A & M has done any homework whatsoever, they will
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: notice the same tendencies, the same things, and they'll be
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: able to stop them too. Then it becomes whether or
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: not Bama can hold them to less than four yards
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: of rush. Right? I don't know that they can do
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: it for the entire game. I think they can do
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: it for some. So I am going to go out
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: on a limb here, and I'm going to go with
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: a road dog this time instead of a road favorite.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: In this game, I'm going Texas A & M plus 14.5.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: I'm going against my stats model. Again, power rating, Bama
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: minus 13.3. Stats model, Bama minus 15.17. This thing is
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: down to 14.5. Yeah, give me A & M. A
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: & M plus 14.5 here. Kickoff is coming. The coffee's strong.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: You've already got opinions about every spread on the board.
• 21:57
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• 22:01
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  Speaker 1: for 15% off over at gosleeves.com. Game number four, Oklahoma
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: goes to Mississippi State, and the Sooners are a three-and-a-half
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: point road favorite, total of 45-and-a-half on this. 2.30 p.m.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone on the SEC Network. First
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: ever meeting between these two schools. Oklahoma has never been
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: to Starkville. Go ahead and take that in. I can't
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: believe that that has been allowed to happen in college football, right?
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma 3-3 thus far on the season last week. They
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: lost 21-3 to Kentucky. John Mateer, interceptions all over the yard,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: felt like. Mississippi State 4-2. They got shut out 31-0
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: at LSU. But Camario Taylor did not play. Super Camario.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: And that is a big part of this handicap here.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Line has moved from 1.5 to 3.5, which says to
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: me that he's probably not going to play this week either.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Total has come down a point, 46.5 to 45.5. The
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: trends on this.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Brent Venables 5-14 to the over as a favorite since 2024.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: That is 19 games. Pretty decent sample size. On the side,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma 2-8 against the spread as a road favorite under
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: 10 points. Now that's 10 games. I mean, it's thin, right?
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: So we're not going to focus too much on that one.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: My model has this basically a pick-em. Stats model has
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State minus. 18. And the power rating has Oklahoma
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: minus 1.2. About three and a half points of value
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: on Mississippi State. And it looks like I've got the
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: over at 50.22. So the trends say under, the model
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: says over, there's a conflict there. But you kind of
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: understand it because if Fluff Bothwell, the running back for State,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: doesn't play, and Kamario Taylor doesn't play, do we need
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: John Mateer to be put in situations where he can
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: give the game to the other team? Here's what I
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: like about the stats, right? Oklahoma's offense is a disaster.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: They're 119th in offensive success rate, 128th in points per play,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: 127th in rushing success. Their defense is 5th in success
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: rate and 4th in points per play. They're 134th in
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: turnover margin, which is right there. 2.3 giveaways per game.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: That's 137. That is next to last in the country.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: There's only 138 FBS teams, right? It's not that State's
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: a whole lot better. Number 103 in turnover margin, they're
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: not very good at takeaways. Like number 115, they don't
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: generate turnovers very well. But they're 79th in giveaways per game.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: They're number 112 in penalties per game. And these two
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: teams have played some pretty tough competition. Oklahoma has not
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: faced great offenses for the most part. Number 83 in
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: offensive PPA. But overall, opponent PPA margin. Oklahoma number 21.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State number 47. Oklahoma, number eight toughest schedule against
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: defenses faced. Mississippi State, number 47. That's where it gets
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: a little tricky, right? Because this Oklahoma offense can't run
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: the ball, can't really throw the ball, but you've seen
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: some things here, right? You've seen them be able to
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: have some success at certain points, just so long as
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: you don't turn the ball over. I mean, it The
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: offense for Oklahoma is number 132 in interceptions thrown per
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: pass attempt. Well, State's defense is number 132 in interceptions
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: gained per pass attempt faced. So they're not great at
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: getting turnovers. That could play into Oklahoma's favor. As far
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: as the injuries go, it's Bothwell and it's Kamario Taylor.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Those are the ones that we've got to figure out.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma's got some problems too, right? They've got three offensive
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: linemen that are out. They've got receivers out, Livingstone, Harris, whatever.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: and I don't know that they're out. Pay attention on
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: Wednesday when the first reports come out, and then they've
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: got another report on Thursday, another report on Friday, so
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: pay attention to those injury reports. But that's what we're
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: looking at right now if we're making picks on Monday,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: which is what we're doing. Next week, Oklahoma hosts South Carolina.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State goes to Texas. I don't think either team
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: is really looking ahead here. So when you look at
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: this and you see that Oklahoma's faced some really good defenses,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: and now all of a sudden they're playing a defense
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: that's 102nd in PPA allowed per drive. That's predicted points added.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: You're playing a defense that is number 119 in points
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: allowed per scoring opportunity. And for those that don't know,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity is when you get a first down inside
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: the opponent's 40-yard line. State can't stop anybody from scoring.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: And Oklahoma has trouble scoring anyway. They're number 115 in
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. They are number 134 in scoring
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: opportunities per game. But I think they'll have an opportunity here.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma's the much more talented team This is a get-right spot,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: especially if Taylor doesn't play. I'm going to go based
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: on the assumption that even if Taylor does play, I
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: think he'll be stuck in the pocket because he's dealing
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: with a leg injury, a foot injury. He's not going
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: to be able to run away from them. If he
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: can't run away from them, Oklahoma's going to get the
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: tee off all day. If Oklahoma gets the tee off
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: all day, Oklahoma number 22 in Havoc Rate Allowed Sorry,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: in Havoc Rate, Mississippi State's offense, number 88 in Havoc
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: Rate allowed. I understand why this line has gone up.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: I know why my model is where it is, but
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: these two teams have changed. State is not the team
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: that they were early in the season. This thing's at 3.5.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: I will go against the model. Give me Oklahoma on
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: the road, minus 3.5. Game number five, the Tennessee Volunteers
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: go to Columbia, South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: South Carolina now a two-and-a-half point home favorite. Total, 50-and-a-half
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: on this one. It's gone up a point. This one, 2.30 p.m.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Central Time. God's time zone. On ESPN, Tennessee 6-1 coming
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: off the third Saturday in October. They beat Alabama 26-10.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: South Carolina 3-3. They were on a bye last week.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: And before that, they went into Gainesville. They got a
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: big-time win over Florida, 38-19. So Tennessee on a high.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: South Carolina's had two weeks to think about it. This
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: is a classic spot, right, which is why the line
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: has flipped. And it's one of the biggest moves of
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: the week. Tennessee opened a two-and-a-half point favorite. Now South
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Carolina's the favorite by two-and-a-half. That is a five-point swing,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: and it flipped the favorite. Total is down a point, too,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: 51-and-a-half down to 50-and-a-half. It was and a half at
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: one point on Sunday. It's back up to 50 and
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: a half. So this thing's kind of bouncing around there.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: The board has Josh Heupel. Here's, let's look at some trends. Okay,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: we'll start off with trends. Heupel, eight and three against
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: the spread as a road favorite under 10. That is
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: 11 games. So it's thin and But that's when they
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: were the favorite. Now they're the dog. We're going to
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: set that one aside. On the total, Shane Beamer 19-11
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: to the over off of an under since 2021. I
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: don't know that that was an under. I put it
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: down as an under. I don't remember what the total
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: was on. There's no way that was an under. It's 38-19.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: It's crazy. Maybe it was. I don't know. South Carolina
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: is coming off of a bye. This is a weak
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: game for trends anyway. Let's not force it, right? My
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: number's like Tennessee by 5.59. I mean, against the current line,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: that's about eight points of value on Tennessee. It's the
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: biggest side gap on the card.
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: Over....
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Or the total is over about three points. I've got 53.37.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: So I kind of like the over. But this Tennessee
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: offense is still not great. Right? Right. This South Carolina defense,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: pretty good against the run. They're number 51 in rushing
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed, but they're number 12 in offensive line
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: yards allowed, number 22 in stuff rate. I think that
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: South Carolina is going to be a lot healthier than
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Alabama was. Alabama was missing some dudes. They were beat
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: up from the Georgia game. South Carolina is coming off
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: of a bye, right? Tennessee's passing game is still a problem.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: 117th in passing success rate, 131st. There it is. They
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: are 117th in success rate. They are.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Where is our fourth down conversion percentage? Tennessee, number 16
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: in fourth down conversion percentage. Number 97 in third down
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: conversion percentage. South Carolina's pass defense, 98th in passing success rate.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: So they're not great. But I don't believe that George
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: McIntyre is going to just carve up the South Carolina defense.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: South Carolina's run game, pretty good. Seventh in yards per carry, 5.98
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: yards per carry. Tennessee's run defense, 43rd in success rate.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, that doesn't look like the 43rd best success
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: rate team in the country last Saturday, but again, you've
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: got to pay attention to who you're playing and when
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: you're playing them, right? In the red zone, Tennessee, number
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: six in the country, 95.65% offensive red zone conversion percentage.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Number 37 in red zone touchdown rate. South Carolina, if
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: they let Tennessee get down there, that's a problem. That's
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: a problem. Number 112 in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Not good on that. As far as points per scoring opportunity,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's offense, number 42. South Carolina's defense, number 123 in
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: points allowed per scoring opportunity. That's not great. On the
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: other side, Tennessee's defense, number 7. In points allowed per
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, South Carolina number 31. So South Carolina can
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: score when they get down there, but it is what
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: it is. As far as the schedule faced, South Carolina
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: a significantly stronger schedule faced than what Tennessee has done.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: Tennessee looked good last week. That does not mean that
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: they are going to look great this week. Number 47
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: in opponent PPA margin for South Carolina, number 84 for Tennessee.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: As far as injuries, I don't think we've got to
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: worry about it right now. Faison Brandon is questionable. If
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Faison Brandon comes out, maybe they can do something different
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: on offense. George McIntyre, I think, is the guy right now.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was a huge win over Alabama. I
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: think you've got to ride with the person that brought you, right?
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: South Carolina's got defensive lineman Brownwell Diddy out. Defensive back
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Scott is out. The kicker's out. this, this could end
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: up being a one score game. So stuff like that
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: does matter as far as special teams efficiency. Tennessee is
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: number six, South Carolina, number 18. So there's not a
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: huge difference there. Turnover margin, South Carolina, number one or
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: three in turnover margin. Tennessee is number 40. So Tennessee
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: good at creating turnovers, Tennessee, or sorry, South Carolina is
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: not their number one 15 and takeaways per game. Tennessee
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: is number 13. Uh, you look at penalties per game.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: There's not a massive difference. You're talking about 0.7 penalties
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: per game there. Um, You look at five factors, Tennessee
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: has been significantly better there. Number 9 versus number 25
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: on that. Tennessee, a much better second half team. And
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: the last meeting between these two was in 2023. Tennessee
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: won that 41-20. Tennessee has their bye week next week.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: South Carolina coming off of a bye. They are going
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: to Oklahoma. I think coming off of that bye, and.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Having Tennessee in a really low emotional spot, or I
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: guess a really high emotional spot, but a big-time letdown spot,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: I'm going to agree with the move. I'm going to
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: go South Carolina minus two and a half. I have
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: learned my lesson. I am not betting on these teams
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: after huge emotional wins at home. Tennessee now has to
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: go on the road, their eighth straight game, against a
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: team that is now rested, that is at home, and
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: that needs a win. The power rating has Tennessee minus 3.7.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Stats model has Tennessee minus 5.59. I'll take South Carolina
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: minus 2.5 at home to get the win over Rocky Top.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Game number six, and let's go down to the bounce
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: house for this one, right? BYU goes to UCF. BYU
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: a 6.5 point road favorite, total 43.5. 2.30 p.m. Central Time.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: TV still to be announced, I guess. I didn't put
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: it in my notes. Either way, 2.30 p.m. Central Time
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: on this one. BYU 6-0. Last week they beat the
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: number two team in the country, Notre Dame, 28-24. Bear
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Bachmeier hit the go-ahead touchdown late in that one. Massive
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: jump in the polls for them. They're number two in
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: the country this week. And their gift, what they receive
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: for this, is they get to go to UCF. who
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: is 3-3 and coming off of a bye, right? Before that,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: UCF played a pretty strong game, but they lost 42-28
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State. Textbook letdown spot for BYU. Emotional win
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: over the number two team in the country. Biggest win
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: in school history at Lavelle Edwards Stadium. Now you get
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: a road trip to Orlando against a rested team. And
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: the market knows it, right? This thing opened 9.5. It's
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: now down to 6.5. UCF got three points of respect
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: just right off the bat. Total went from 45.5 down
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: to 43.5. It was 44.5 on Sunday. That thing has
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: dropped quite a bit. Trends are firmly on BYU. BYU
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: 15-5 against the spread off a cover since 2024. That's
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: 20 games. That's a good sample size. And obviously BYU
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: off a cover with that win as an outright double-digit dog.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: 23-9 against the spread in all games since 2024. That
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: is 32 games. They BYU is a covering machine. My
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: numbers have BYU minus 8.58. That's the stats model, right?
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Stats model minus 8.58. The power rating has BYU minus 7.2.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: My total on this is 51.05. The total right now
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: is 43.5. That's 7.5 points to the over. Biggest total
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: gap on the card that I've got so far. And
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: the reason is BYU's offense is explosive. They're fourth in
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: the country at 18%. I mean, that offensive explosiveness is
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: something serious, right? Eighth in success rate, fourth in rushing success. Like,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: this team's good. LJ Martin's still out. We'll talk about
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: that here in a minute. The UCF defense, 60th in
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: success rate. But they're 38th in success rate against the run,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: but they're 95th against the pass. Here's the catch. Like,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: BYU plays slow. 128th in pace. UCF in a whole
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: lot faster, number 72 in plays per minute. fewer drives,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: which is why the total is pretty low. There's all
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: kinds of injuries all over the field here. Alonzo Barnett,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: the third, is out. I think Jenkins is going to
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: start at quarterback again for UCF. Pay attention to the
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: injury reports this week. We'll see. UCF also missing their linebacker, Carter,
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: their edge, Dell, or Dahl, and they've got three offensive
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: linemen dealing with issues. BYU still missing their running back,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: LJ Martin, and Moa, another backup. Cornerback DeVries out for them.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: The last meeting between these two was last year. BYU
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: won it 41-21. UCF plays Friday night next week against
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: Baylor on a short week. But I think they're going
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: to be fired up for this because it is the
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: number two team in the country coming into your house.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: So BYU is the team with the next week break.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: They get Arizona State at home next week. This is... Boy,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: this is wild. This is so wild. Looking at who
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: has played the tougher teams, which both of these teams,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: by the way, Sagarin has UCF with the 27th most
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule, BYU with the 40th. And when you really
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: look at like opponent PPA margin, UCF the sixth most
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule, BYU the 16th, both of them have faced
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: top 20 offenses on average. Both of them have faced
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: top 21 defenses on average. Like both of these teams
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: have been through the schedule. And so far, so good.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, UCF 4-2 against the spread, 3-3 overall. BYU
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: 5-0-1 against the spread, 6-0 overall. You start looking into
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: who can finish drives, all that kind of stuff. Points
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, UCF is number five in the country.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: BYU's defense is only number 53. So if UCF gets
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: down there, I think they're going to be able to
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: put up some points. They're number 10 in offensive red
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: zone touchdown rate, number 8 in offensive red zone conversion percentage.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: BYU's defense, number 99 in defensive red zone touchdown rate,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: but you're not going to get down there a lot.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: You just got to capitalize when you do. Overall talent,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: these two are not as far off as you would think.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: BYU number 58 in overall talent rank, UCF number 69.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: This thing is at 6.5. I would hope it gets
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: back up to 7 at some point, Again, I'm going
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: against the model. I'm going with the home dog on
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: this one. UCF was off, and now they have the
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: number two team in the country coming into their house.
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: It would not shock me in the slightest to see
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: them win this game outright. I know BYU looks great.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: They've got the number one strength of schedule. I see it.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: I know what you're talking about. You see it right
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: up there. That number one, right up there. Number one
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: strength of record. I don't think this team is that
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: good Like, I think they're really good. I just don't
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: think they're number two in the AP poll good. And
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: BYU fans, you can hate on me, I understand. I
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: get it. But I think what you did last week
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: was expose Notre Dame. And I think you're a really
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: good team, but I don't think that you were blowing
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: a bunch of teams out. And I think a game
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: like this, with the schedule spot the way it is,
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Give me UCF plus 6.5. Again, the stats model has
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: BYU minus 8.58. Power rating has BYU minus 7.2. I'm
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: going to take UCF plus 6.5. Game number seven, it
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: is the SEC highlight game of the week. Ole Miss
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: goes to Texas. Boy, you want to talk about storylines here.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Texas a 3.5 point home favorite, total of 52.5 on this. 6.30 p.m.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone on ABC. Prime time. And look,
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: we can talk about the storylines of Texas has lost
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: two straight. Last week they blew a 17-3 lead against Florida,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: lost 27-24. Arch Manning fumbled at the end. Arch Manning,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: two straight weeks that he has blown the game with turnovers.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Texas now 4-2, overall 1-2 in the SEC, but they
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: do still have the win over Ohio State. Ole Miss,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: on the other hand, they are 5-1. They beat Missouri
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: last week 31-3. Just beat them half to death. Just
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: beat them up. Couldn't do nothing. I take that back.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Missouri was able to move it between the 20s all
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: day long. Just couldn't get the ball in the end zone.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: Is what it is. But the storylines of the Mannings
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: and whatnot, Archie and Eli both played for Ole Miss.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Arch plays for Texas. They can't quite get it figured
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: out at Texas, all that kind of stuff, right? The
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: line kind of says everything you need to know here.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Texas opened at minus 8.5 in the preseason. It's now
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: minus 3.5. That's five points of movement towards Ole Miss,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: which is, I mean, the Tennessee swing happened like just
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: in a week. This has been building for quite some time.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Total went from 54.5 down to 52.5. It was 53.5
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, which you can see when it was created there.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: My projected total on this is 53, so I'm Pretty
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: close to that number. As far as trends, Ole Miss
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: plus 3.5 here. Texas is 6-14 against the spread in
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: conference games since 2024. 20 games, pretty good sample. And
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: on the total, Texas 4-11-1 to the over when the
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: total is between 50 and 54.5. So trends would say
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss and the under. My model says, like the
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: stats model has Texas minus 5.96. That's about 2.5 points
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: of value on Texas. The power rating has Texas minus 7.2.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: And if you look at overall talent rank, that's carrying
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: the day. Because Texas is number one in the country
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: in overall talent. Ole Miss is number 15. Still, Ole
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Miss has the better quarterback. They got the better running game.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: They don't have a better defense. I know that. But
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: if you start looking at, you know, Ole Miss' defensive
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: line and their offensive line, just... I know that I've
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: got these things marked this way. Talent weighs heavily on this.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: But Texas certainly hasn't been playing like top five units
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: at all. Like, I don't think it's close, really. But
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: the model and the trends are in conflict on the side.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: The model's total is about a point over. As far
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: as why the model likes Texas, it's just talent. Their
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: pass defense is fifth in yards per attempt. Where are we? Yeah,
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: fifth in yards per attempt, number 18 in QBR allowed,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: number 16 in passing success allowed. They're number 14 in
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: havoc rate. We're going to talk about how that might
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: not be totally accurate here in just a minute, but
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Texas' offense is where they've got the issues, right? If
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: you look, they're number 106 in PPA per drive. That's atrocious.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: But Ole Miss' defense is number 97 in PPA allowed
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: per drive. I mean, there's a lot of red on
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: both sides here. Texas, number 117 in passing explosiveness, number
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: 127 in havoc rate allowed, number 91 in interceptions thrown
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: per pass attempt. Running the ball, they're number 121 in
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: PPA per rush. They are number 119 in yards per rush.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: And this Ole Miss defense has gotten a little bit better.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Number 39 in offensive line yards allowed, number 17 in
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: stuff rate. That's going to slow down a lot of
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: running attacks, right? Ole Miss is so good on offense.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Fifth in offensive success rate, second in rushing success rate,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: number one in red zone conversions at 100%. I mean,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: they've scored every time. And they're number one in offensive
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate. They get down there, they're going
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: to put the ball in the end zone. The biggest
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: thing to focus on here is injuries. Texas Edge Colin
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Simmons is doubtful.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: And you've got other guys as well. Receiver Lockett and
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: the lineman Chapman are out. Keewon Lacey is questionable, but
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: he's going to play. There's other guys that are out
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: for Ole Miss, and it's a secondary issue for Ole
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: Miss and a pass rush issue for Texas. I don't
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: think it matters who you've got back there as far
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: as the secondary is concerned for Ole Miss. This has
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: just been a problem. Florida was awful. on passing defense,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: and Texas couldn't score on them. The last meeting between
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: these two was 2013 in Austin. Ole Miss won that one.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: They scored 44. That's the most points they've ever put
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: up on Texas. Texas leads the series 6-2. Next week,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss hosts Auburn. Texas hosts Mississippi State. There's no
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: look ahead here. This is for the marbles. If you
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: are Texas, you have to win this ballgame. And they're
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: favored by three and a hook. I'm going to go
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: with the better quarterback. And I may be foolish for this,
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: but Ole Miss knows what they are. Texas has no
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: idea what they are. I've seen enough from this Texas
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: offense to know that I can't count on them for nothing.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Number 103 in turnover margin. Ole Miss is number 85.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: But Ole Miss is going to make you pay at
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: some point. I don't know that Texas is going to
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: make you pay. Give me Ole Miss. Plus three and
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: a half. I don't know that they went out right.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: But three and a hook feels crazy to me when
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: you've got the better quarterback and a team that is
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: struggling to figure out exactly how they can operate. I
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: don't even necessarily know that they know what they want
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: to be. But I can't trust Texas here. So Texas
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: one and five against the spread this year. Yeah. The
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: numbers again. Stats model has Texas minus 5.96. Power rating
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: has Texas minus 7.2. I'm going to take Ole Miss
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: plus 3.5 and go against the model.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: Hello, Winning Cures Everything audience. This is TJ Reeves of
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: Three Dog Thursday. We are rolling on the only digital
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: show that's devoted exclusively to the college football underdogs. How
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: about 14 and four in the month of October? Another
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: five and one week last week. I'm seven and two.
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: Jason Powers, my colleague, is seven and two. What's gonna
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: happen this week with the underdogs? Find out right here
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: on Winning Cures Everything Thursdays. It's Three Dog Thursday. We're
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: rolling on the Winning Cures Everything platform on three dog thursday.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: You want extra winning cures everything content and a way
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  Speaker 1: to support the show directly head over to buymeacoffee.com slash
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  Speaker 1: winning cures and become part of the community today game
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: number eight and we are headed up to camp randall Oh, man. Madison.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: USC at Wisconsin. USC a three-point road favorite. Total of 49.5
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: on this. 6.30 p.m. Central. This one on NBC. USC
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: right now 6-1. They come in rested. They were on
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: a bye after they won at Penn State. Wisconsin 4-2.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: They lost 17-7 at UCLA. So both teams having to
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: go from the West Coast back over to the East Coast.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin missed a 46-yard field goal. The safety, Matt Jung,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: got ejected for targeting. Uh, he's, he's not on the
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: injury report. So I think he's just sitting in the
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: first half. I'll have to check either way. I remember
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: that happening. I don't remember if it was first, second half,
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: either way. Uh, the line moved from one and a
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: half up to three total drop three from 52 and
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: a half down to 49 and a half trends. And
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: these are good trends. This time, Wisconsin plus three, uh, is,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: is the current spread Lincoln Riley, nine 25 and one
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: against the spread as a road favorite. That's 34 games. Atrocious.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Just 4-16 against the spread as a road favorite since 2021,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: which 20 games, again, good sample size. On the total,
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: Luke Fickle 12-27 to the over as an underdog. 39 games. So,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: trends all say Wisconsin, and they all say under. My
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: model says this game is basically a coin flip. Power rating?
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Power rating has USC minus 0.7 points. And the stats
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: model has Wisconsin minus. 17 points. That's about three points
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: on Wisconsin. So the side agrees with the trends here.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Now the model does say over by about two and
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: a half points. So the total is in some conflict here. 51.9
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: is my projected total on it. We kind of like
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: this under because I don't know that USC's offense is
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: going to move quite as well. But either way, let's
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: look at the unit matchups. USC's offense, number seven in
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: offensive success rate, third in passing success. Wisconsin, number 24
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: in defensive success rate, number 39 in passing success allowed.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin's pass defense, number eight in yards allowed per attempt.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: They are number seven in QBR allowed. That's pretty good, right?
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: USC's pass defense, rough. Number 127 in yards allowed per attempt,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: number 117 in QBR allowed. But that ain't where Wisconsin's
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: going to try and take advantage of you. Wisconsin, they
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: only throw the ball less than 45% of the time.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: That's 91st pass rate in the country. They're number 90
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: in QBR, number 94 in PPA allowed, or excuse me,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: PPA per attempt. That's predictive points added. Wisconsin's offense is
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: 106th in success rate overall. They are number 112 in
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: passing success, number 121 in rushing success. So the offense
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: ain't getting it done. USC only runs 9.9 drives per game,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I believe it is. Let's see, where is the drives
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: per game? And I have lost it. There it is. 9.86
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: drives per game, that's 134th in the country. Wisconsin, number
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: 129 in offensive drives per game, 10.17. When you look
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: at pace of play, both are right there inside the
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: top 100. So USC number 98 in plays per minute,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin number 91. So this should be a short game.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: As far as injuries go, USC got the receivers out, right?
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Sims and O'Connor and Anderson. There we go, Anderson. They've
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: got a lineman out. Excuse me, O'Connor is the lineman.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Y'all are going to have to bear with me. The
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: weather change has destroyed me. So we're going to get there, though.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: We're going to get there.
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: We are in the thick of it. We got to
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: do these. We got to go through these games. I mean,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: we're in week eight already. Anyway, Wisconsin lost a cornerback,
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: a running back, lineman. Depth is certainly an issue for
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: basically everybody this time of year, right? Last meeting was
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: in 2024. USC won that one 38-21. USC's next week,
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: Ohio State coming to the Coliseum. That's a look-ahead spot. Wisconsin,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: also maybe a little bit of a look-ahead. but Wisconsin
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: has this one at home. They play at Iowa next week. Um, USC,
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: a bit more of a look ahead spot, right? You
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: think probably you're going to be able to get this one.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: You're the favorite on the road. We'll see. This is
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: a tough Wisconsin defense. Looking at who these two teams
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: have played. Number 63 toughest schedule against opponent. PPA margin
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: is Wisconsin USC. Number 51. Um, USC has faced some
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: pretty good passing attacks, but they've faced easy rushing attacks
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: thus far. Both of them have faced top 50 PPA
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: defenses thus far. USC, slightly more difficult schedule. And Sagrim
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: would have you believe that Wisconsin has played the tougher
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: schedule at number 31, USC number 44. But the numbers
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: would say otherwise. Numbers would say USC at 51, Wisconsin
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: at 63, so it's kind of a wash at that point.
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin number 22 in five factors, USC number 30. I'm
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: going with the home dog here. I know USC won
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: at Penn State. I think that's more of an indictment
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: of Penn State. I don't think USC is that good
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: of a football team. They are 6-1, yes, but they
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: also lost to Oregon, who is not a very good
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: football team, to put it bluntly. this USC team has
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: done nothing really to impress me thus far. Uh, yeah,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: there's something to be said about going into a whiteout
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: and winning. That is very difficult to do. Wisconsin also
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: won there. Like USC was a little more like just
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: slightly better, but the fact that USC has got Ohio
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: state coming up next, USC is two and five against
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: the spread, Wisconsin three and three. Um, I will go
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: with Wisconsin. This thing's at three now. Give me Wisconsin
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: plus three. And I think they win the ballgame outright.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: Game number nine, Iowa State at Arizona. Arizona a 10-point
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: home favorite. Total of 51.5 on this. 6.30 p.m. Central Time.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: This one on ESPN2. Both teams coming off of a
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: bye last week. Iowa State is 3-3. And before the bye,
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: they lost 24-10 at BYU. Arizona 5-1. Before they bide,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: they went to West Virginia. They won 52-31. Last time,
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: Iowa State won 39-14 in 2025. So it's a bit
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: of a revenge spot for Arizona. The line has not
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: moved much. Arizona minus 10. Basically, from the word go,
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: it was minus 10.5 at one point. As soon as
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: they hit 10.5, it got brought back. Total has moved
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: up from 50.5 up to 51.5. The trends all say under.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Arizona is 12-24 to the over at home since 2021.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: That's 36 games. That's a good sample size. 5-12 since 2024.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: That is 17 games. Again, pretty decent sample size. Jimmy
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: Rogers at Iowa State, 2-10 to the over off of
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: an under. But it's 10 games, so it's really thin, right?
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: Not a whole lot. Not a whole lot. My model
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: says Arizona, or the stats model has Arizona minus 13.48
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: power rating. Arizona minus 11. My stats projected total, 52.09
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: on this. So my model's total is right around the
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: current number, about a half point over. Trends say under,
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: model doesn't fight them a whole lot, is what it is.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: Here's the deal. Arizona's offense is 15th in success rate,
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: in offensive success rate, number four in passing success rate.
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: Their quarterback is 14th in QBR. Which, there we go.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: And the issue for Iowa State is they are number
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: 103 in QBR allowed. Meanwhile, Iowa State's offense, not good.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Number 111 in offensive success rate. They are 115th in
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate. They are 127th on third down. They are,
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: there we go, third down conversion percentage. Number 127, about 31%.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Arizona's defense is 20th. In success rate allowed. Just bananas.
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: Injuries are pretty heavy on the Arizona side. Running back,
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: Mahdi is out. Receivers, Richardson and Hunter are out. Trey
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: Spivey is out for the season. They've just had dudes
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: falling off. Iowa State, they're missing their edge. Crawford, safety surges.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: The safety alls is out for the season. So depth, again,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: at this point in the season, becoming an issue for
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: pretty much everybody. Iowa State has Oklahoma State next. there's
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: not really a look at spot here. This isn't a
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: huge thing. When you look at the tougher schedule, Iowa
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: State has played a significantly tougher schedule. Number 40 in
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: opponent PBA margin, Arizona number 101. Arizona is 2-4 against
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: the spread, but they are 5-1, or sorry, 2-4-1 against
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: the spread. No, that's not right. 2-4 against the spread.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: 5-1 straight up. Iowa State, 3-3 against the spread, 3-3
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: straight up. And if you look at every position group,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: Arizona's better. Like at basically every position group. Talent rank,
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Arizona's better. One advantage, or a couple of advantages here,
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: special teams efficiency, Iowa State is number 34, Arizona number 108,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: so hidden yardage can certainly be a thing. Although field
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: position has not been a friend of Iowa State, they're
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: around 100th on offense and defensive field position. In turnover margin,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Iowa State number 34, Arizona is number 103. Arizona is
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: winning despite not being able to generate takeaways and giving
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: the ball away 1.33 times per game. But the offense
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: is good and the defense is good. Standard downs PPA,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: standard downs rate. Standard down success. Arizona's defense, top 10
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: in those. Standard down success rate for Iowa State, number 118.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: So outside of the top 100. And I know that
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: they've played a tougher schedule, but if you can't get
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: yourself in a position on standard downs to have success
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: on third down, etc., you're going to be in for
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: a long ballgame against Arizona. You just are. They're going
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: to be able to move the football around. Number 16
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: in PPA margin. Iowa State number 78. I know that
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: Jimmy Rogers covers as a dog. I get that. He's
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: typically pretty good in this position. But both of these
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: teams coming off of buys. Arizona's rested. I think they're
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: ready for this spot. I'm going to side with the
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: model here. Again, stats model has Arizona minus 13.48. Power
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: rating has Arizona minus 11. This thing dropped back down
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: to 10. Give me the Wildcats. Give me Arizona minus
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: 10 over Iowa State. Game number 10. We got a
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: late-night Big 12 matchup. Houston going to Utah. Utah a 6.5
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: point home favorite. Total of 56.5. 9.15 p.m. Central Time.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: God's time zone on ESPN. Or is this one on Fox?
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: But this is great podcasting, and let me double-check this.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: Because I'm pretty sure it's ESPN. But, pull up my
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: superfan app, and we gonna see. They gonna tell us.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: Maybe they're not gonna tell us. This thing still says
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: to be determined. Why is it Monday night, and we're
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: still having issues trying to figure out where the game's
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: gonna be on TV? And I'm sure you guys don't
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: really care. But I want to make sure I get
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: this thing right on here. And I wrote it down
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: and was like, man, I'll just figure it out. It's
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. Ridiculous. It's the last game of the night.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: Last game of the night. Houston 6-1. Last week they
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: beat Oklahoma State 35-32. Wigman threw for five touchdowns. Utah 6-0.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: 12 straight wins. They went to Colorado as a 15-point favorite. Boy,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: there was a lot of nervous energy in that stadium. whoo, 27,
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: 24 over Colorado. They barely got it done. The spread
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: has not moved this week. Utah minus six and a half.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: The total opened at 50 and a half. It's up
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: to 56 and a half, six points higher. Granted that
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: was pre a preseason number. This Houston offense is so
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: much better than I thought they would be. I thought
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: the defense would be the driver and defense is number
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: 90 in PPA allowed per drive. Like that's, that's crazy.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: Absolutely crazy. Um, A lot of shootout money coming in here.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: That thing's up to 56.5. That's pretty wild. Trends on this,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: Houston plus 6.5. Willie Fritz is 21-10 against the spread
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: on the road since 2021. FFC, baby. That's what Willie
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: Fritz is. 31-game sample size. That's all right. 13-5 against
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: the spread as a road dog. That's 18 games. Again,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: good sample size. On the total? Houston 5-13 to the
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: over as a dog since 2024. That's 18 games. So
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: the trends say Houston, and the trends say under. And yet,
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: my model has Utah. The stats model has Utah minus 6.68.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: The power rating has Utah minus 4.3. So the stats
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: model is right on the number. My stats projected total
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: is 54.46. So that's two points under. So the trends
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: and the model both lean under here, and that's the
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: one total on the whole card where they actually agree.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: As far as the stats go, because we know that
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: the stats model has Utah by about the exact number here, 6.68.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: Utah's favored by 6.5 is what it is. Houston's offense
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: is first in the country in offensive success rate. They
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: are first in third down conversion percentage, which is pretty awesome.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: But they are number 91 in third down attempts per game.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: Part of that is because they are number 7 in
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: standard down success rate. They are number 2 in standard
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: downs rate. So they find themselves in 1st and 10,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: 2nd and 5, 3rd and short frequently because they can
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: stay ahead of the chains. They're pretty good at this
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: kind of stuff. They throw the ball 57% of the time.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: Or sorry, they run the ball. 57% of the time
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: does Houston. They are 112th in pass rate. Now, Utah's defense,
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: number 134 in pass rate phase, so people have to
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: pass it on them regularly. And part of that is because,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: here we go, first half point margin, Utah is number two,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: plus 18. But Houston is number 19 at plus eight.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: So Utah may not know what to do here. Utah's
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: pass defense, 5th in success rate. Their defense is 8th overall.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: But Houston's red zone defense is 110th. If you're looking
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: at it. Let's see.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: Number 110, they're number 123 in defensive red zone touchdown rate.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: Utah's offense, 15th in red zone touchdown rate. Houston's offense,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: number 29 in offensive red zone touchdown rate. But they're 76th.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: So....
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: Special teams, not great, but both of these teams, if
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: you look, number 58, number 60, Houston and Utah, this
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: is just a pretty evenly matched game. Houston's defense, not
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: very good at stopping the pass. 100th in passing success
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Utah's offense is 5th, but they only throw
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: the ball 45% of the time. Utah is 6-0. Their
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: opponents have been pretty soft. Their average strength of schedule
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: by opponent PPA margin is 114th. Houston's is 13th. So
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: we still got to figure out exactly how good Utah is.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at this difference. That's about as stark
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: as you can get. Injuries are on Houston's side. Right,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: cornerback Jalen Mayo, the top-rated name on the list, he's out.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: The linebacker Jaden Yates is out. Defensive lineman Brooks is suspended.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: Utah's list is pretty minimal here. J.C. Hart, linebacker Preston Pitts.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: Last meeting between these two, Houston won 17-14 on the
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: last second field goal in 2024. Houston has not been
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: to Salt Lake since 1977. Houston gets to go on
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: a bye next week. Utah has to go to Cincinnati.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: I still feel like six and a half is too much.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: Houston just got done with a really big game at
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: home last week. Big win over Oklahoma State. This week,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: They've got Utah, and then they get to basically empty
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: the clip before they go on their bye. Utah has
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: to go to Cincinnati next week. But this Utah team
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: is a little more rested. I know they played Colorado
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: last week, but they've already had one of their byes,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: or already had their bye, which is why they're only 6-0,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: and Houston is 6-1. I think this is going to
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: be a tight ballgame. I don't know that Houston wins
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: it outright. Salt Lake is a strange place, the elevation,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. It's a weird spot. I
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: don't know that they went out right. But I don't
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: think that Utah is that much better than this team.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: I think they're pretty evenly matched. I think it's a
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: coin flip. And if you give me just home field
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: advantage on Utah, then you're talking about a field goal
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: or so. So while my numbers are right there with
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: the spread, give me Houston plus six and a half
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: at Utah. All right, let's put a bow on this thing.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: Biggest gaps between my numbers and the market as far
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: as the sides go. LSU, almost 12 against 7.5. Tennessee,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: it's about 8 points, even with South Carolina now favored.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: Arizona and Mississippi State, about three and a half indiana
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: about three my biggest gaps on totals byu and ucf
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: seven and a half to the over indiana michigan five
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: and a half to the over oklahoma and mississippi state
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: uh that one's almost five over my model runs high
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: on nearly every total this week use the gaps as
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: relative the only game it leans under really is houston
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: and utah which is kind of surprising where trends in
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: the model agree, Bama minus 14.5, BYU minus 6.5, Wisconsin
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: plus 3, Mississippi State plus 3.5, but again, check the quarterback,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: watch these injury reports. As far as where my sides fight,
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: the Texas side, the totals in LSU and Auburn, Oklahoma,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State, USC and Wisconsin, Tennessee, the model loves them
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: as a 2.5 point dog, but there's no trend that
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: backs it as of right now And, I mean, this
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: is a huge emotional letdown spot. Just wild. Best sample
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: trends as far as 10 games or more, Signetti over
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: as a favorite, 51 games. Kiffin under in SEC games.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: Fickle over as a dog, or under as a dog. Arizona,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, Riley is a road favorite, 34 games there. Like,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Bama is a big home favorite, 34 games there. BYU,
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: 23-9 against the spread. Like, there's some big-time trends going
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: on this week that could end up going the opposite direction.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Make sure and check on Thursday for all the injury reports,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. Texas Edge, Colin Simmons, that's
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: a huge one. And don't forget, if you want to
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: put some of this research to work, use the PrizePix
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: link in the description. Promo code WCE. Keep it fun.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: Enjoy yourself with it. Don't forget, by the way, Thursday.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow we're going to have our 15 more show. Thursday, though. Oh, yes, Thursday.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: We've got Three Dog Thursday with TJ and Jason. 14-4
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: thus far in what they are deeming Locktober. That ain't bad.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: 14-4 in picking underdogs. Might want to pay attention to
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: what those boys have got on Thursday morning, 9 a.m.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: Central Time. All right, that is going to do it
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: for this week's show. Ten games, a lot of storylines,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: a lot of reasons to stay glued to the couch
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: on Saturday, just like every week in the fall. That's
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: the way it goes. If you like what we're doing
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: here at Winning Cures Everything, best way to help us out, one,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel, two, like the video, three, become
• 1:11:32
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• 1:11:36
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• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: all of these wonderful spreadsheets and whatnot. I toss those
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: over there along with a lot of other stuff like
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: my five factors ranking, my power ratings, like all that
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: kind of stuff. So you can see where I'm coming
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: with and I do write-ups and everything else. It's a
• 1:11:52
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• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: Don't forget to subscribe. Hit the like button. Drop your
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: favorite plays for week eight in the comments. Again, at
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: GaryWCE on all the socials. And as always, take care
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: of yourself, take care of each other, God bless college football,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: and hopefully all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks
• 1:12:21
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• 1:12:25
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• 1:12:29
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