Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | January 13, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | January 13, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Fall. System's going clear for lifting. What's going on? Everybody? We're
• 0:38
  back after a month break. UFC always does it. It's always a nice
• 0:42
  time grinding content throughout the year every single week. Nice little break, NBA
• 0:46
  on the NFL on, but I'm excited for some fights back on the screen.
• 0:50
  One hundred k up top NFL Playoffs, NBA m m A Saturday.
• 0:55
  Can't drop a better weekend there, Big Marley, How are you doing?
• 0:57
  How is your break? Hope everything been going well with the holidays? Yeah,
• 1:00
  man, I'm good. I'm glad to be back. I always go
• 1:03
  into the break like looking forward for a refresher, because sometimes I do feel
• 1:07
  a little burnt out. But like a week is plenty for me. You
• 1:11
  know, I don't need a whole three weeks. I was really struggling that
• 1:14
  last week. But I can't wait. Man. I love having these fights
• 1:18
  and football on the same night. Hopefully we just double up on both of
• 1:22
  them. But we have all sports for you over at ship at nation dot
• 1:25
  com. Go sign up if you haven't yet, you're missing out If you
• 1:26
  haven't signed up, absolutely yeah, as Big Marley side, we have weekly,
• 1:30
  monthly, six months, and annual packages. Golf, going on,
• 1:34
  MMA, going on Golf Showdown, NBA, NHL, NFL, man,
• 1:40
  next thing you know, MLB will be here. All the money to be
• 1:44
  made right here. If you baked the flagship of every contest. If you
• 1:48
  say DraftKings, just anything on DraftKings, the main sports you're looking at.
• 1:52
  I mean, NFL's gotta have a million or something, so you're looking at
• 1:55
  seven figures right there. Obviously that's a wish of all make a wishes.
• 1:59
  But man, MMA, Hunter, k MFL, NBA, get in the
• 2:02
  streets and all of them. Of course, always play responsibly. But I'm
• 2:06
  very pumped for this card. Twelve fights at the Apex, we got pricing,
• 2:10
  we're talking a little pre show. It's a pretty tough card, I
• 2:13
  think, with a lot of big favorites. My takeaway the mid tier is
• 2:16
  absolutely loaded, especially three fights Bruno Ferreira, Phil Hawes, Jim Miller,
• 2:22
  Gabriel Benezitez and Matthew Semmelsberger, Press and Parsons. Three fights all in the
• 2:28
  mid tier, all price fine, and I think that is where if I
• 2:30
  do leave salary, I will be jamming those fights a lot. Otherwise the
• 2:34
  dogs someone's gonna come through, I think. But pretty tough to pinpoint which
• 2:38
  one in my opinion, any broad Slate overviews before you go fight by fight,
• 2:43
  No, I think that was a good one. I think the mid
• 2:44
  range is very important this week. I think the upper range is where it's
• 2:49
  tough, and I would be fine, say spending our I guess saving salary
• 2:53
  on this card and just loading up on that mid range, not forcing in
• 2:57
  all your salary with whoever it is in the nine k rang. But there's
• 3:00
  just so many like decent plays up top where I can't really separate them from
• 3:04
  each other. But there's also not a lot of complete fades for me on
• 3:08
  this card, which I always try to x out as many people as I
• 3:10
  can. I always hope for like six or so if I can, But
• 3:15
  I feel like I'm maybe like three on this card. Maybe we'll see if
• 3:19
  we can even get there. But I'm hoping that you can help me clear
• 3:22
  some things up on this show. There's a couple fights I have questions about
• 3:24
  that. I don't really feel great about how they're going to play out,
• 3:29
  but the metrics make me feel one way, film made me feel another,
• 3:31
  So we'll see. I'm looking forward to talking to talking about yeah, for
• 3:35
  sure. I think you said another important part, like I can't up top
• 3:38
  the ninety two hundred and a bove, I mean you can even go eighty
• 3:40
  eight hundred. I think Joshua Van is a very strong play. We're about
• 3:44
  to touch on him. But it's hard for me to like rank them.
• 3:47
  And I was doing the tier rankings. At number one, I put Gene
• 3:51
  Silva just because he's in a tier of his own in term of money line
• 3:53
  inside like minus nine hundred, minus eight hundred to finish, but still he
• 3:57
  can put up one ten and that not be enough. These other nine k
• 4:00
  guys at their prices have just as much upside. So yeah, I think
• 4:03
  that's a great broadside overview. Three fights in the mid tier, upper tier.
• 4:08
  I'll be mixing and matching, of course, gotta find some fades as
• 4:12
  always, but all of our content will be up on the site projections ownership.
• 4:15
  You have a lot of sports going on, a lot of familiar faces
• 4:17
  in chat. Ben's in here, data is in here, Robert Payne,
• 4:21
  Yes, Smarty, Ross k, Shawn Smith, Joe Madness. Appreciate y'all
• 4:26
  out there, Appreciate all the love as always, and I see in chat
• 4:29
  mads in discord as well. Fight by fight twelve to talk about ways are
• 4:33
  going in right now. A lot of people already have weight in. Everyone
• 4:36
  has made weight thus far, but still waiting on a couple fighters. So
• 4:41
  fingers cross is always to keep all twelve. First fight of the night bottom
• 4:45
  to the top. Joshua Van taking on flipe Buonez eighty eight hundred Van seventy
• 4:49
  four hundred Bonez. Looking at the odds Van minus two fifty five, Bonez
• 4:55
  two fifteen on the way back, this fight's minus one seventy to finish,
• 5:00
  plus two to seventy five Joshua Van plus one twenty five. My initial thoughts,
• 5:04
  great fights at target. Eighty eight hundred Van. You look at his
• 5:08
  output two USC fights over nine significant strikes per minute. Buona is on the
• 5:13
  other side, making his USC debut, big age discrepancy in this one.
• 5:16
  He's walking competition, looks like a primary grappler. Van's only loss has been
• 5:21
  by submission. I'm kind of looking at a class of styles. Van on
• 5:25
  the feet, with the volume in the pace Bunez needs it on the map,
• 5:28
  I'll be having both sides of this fight. To start it off,
• 5:30
  I'm going to get my water I forgot it. You write down this fight,
• 5:33
  I'll be right back. Yeah. I like this fight as a curtain
• 5:36
  jerker. I mean, Van's definitely a solid prospect. He's super young,
• 5:42
  He's like twenty two to twenty three years old, and he's got solid boxing
• 5:46
  already. I love this kid's pace he's landed. I think it's almost three
• 5:49
  hundred total strikes in his first two UFC fights, which I always love to
• 5:55
  see where you can get one hundred points from a guy without even having to
• 5:59
  look to wrestle. Well, that's a guy that Van is. I do
• 6:01
  think he is gonna have the striking edge in this one, but he's gonna
• 6:04
  have to keep it striking. Most likely, Boonies is the most dangerous grappler
• 6:11
  he's faced so far. And then on that first fight that Josh Van had,
• 6:15
  they mentioned like he had only been grappling for six months or so,
• 6:18
  so at this point that gives him like a year of grappling. And I
• 6:23
  just don't think he's gonna be on Boonie's level on the ground. And I
• 6:26
  also think Boonies is pretty decent on the fee. He's not gonna be able
• 6:29
  to hang with Van volume wise, he's probably gonna get doubled up, tripled
• 6:31
  up in striking, but I do think he's pretty dangerous. He throws some
• 6:35
  hard shots. It wouldn't shock me to see him clip Van and then jump
• 6:40
  on a neck and tap him out or something like that. I don't think
• 6:43
  he has great wrestling, but if he can get the fight to the ground,
• 6:46
  I think he could be dangerous there and maybe grind out minutes on the
• 6:49
  ground, but more likely, in my opinion, end up getting a finish.
• 6:53
  So I do like Boonies as a contrarian GPP play in this one.
• 6:59
  I will be overweight to him, but on the same side, I am
• 7:01
  picking Van to win. I think he is just a minute winner in this
• 7:06
  fight. He probably does stuff most of the takedowns or gets back to his
• 7:10
  feet and then either makes it a clear decision or finishes them late. Just
• 7:15
  that volume adds up and he ends up getting a stoppage at some point.
• 7:18
  So I like Van as well. I think he could score just as much
• 7:21
  as that nine K range. So I'll be in on this fight good amount.
• 7:26
  Probably, I don't know sixty percent of my lineups or so, maybe
• 7:30
  more will have this fight, I'm thinking, But give me Van to win,
• 7:32
  I'll probably have more leverage on the underdog. I'd agree everything you said.
• 7:38
  What do you think ownership is? I haven't checked. That's say you
• 7:42
  have posted it. Yeah, you posted it. I'll get it over to
• 7:46
  the site. So right now we have boone has fourteen percent and Joshua Avan
• 7:51
  twenty six percent. Yeah, both those numbers and again our ownership, shout
• 7:56
  out. Marley has been phenomenal over here. Sheets has been keeping up with
• 8:00
  it and it has been one of the best in the industry. So shout
• 8:01
  out you there and at that ownership. I'll be overweight on both guys or
• 8:05
  I want to be overweight, like you said, Van, even if he
• 8:09
  doesn't finish. He scored one oh six last fight. He did mix in
• 8:13
  two takedowns. I'm not expecting any of those this would be high nineties.
• 8:16
  But he landed twenty significant strikes in that first round and then landed seventy plus
• 8:20
  in the second round. The dude just throws volume for days. He's young,
• 8:24
  can push a pace. I just I think Bunas is a solid all
• 8:28
  run fighter. I'm just not sure he could keep that pace on the feet
• 8:31
  and the volume. So I got banned by late finish similar to your thoughts.
• 8:35
  Wouldn't be surprised with the decision, but I love the upside, like
• 8:37
  plus one twenty five to finish, he finishes, you know there's volume behind
• 8:41
  it, so I love it for that price and you get that discount from
• 8:45
  the Ankalaias, the Nolans of the world. And I like your call with
• 8:50
  Bunez. If he wins, probably wrestling, it's probably on the map,
• 8:52
  maybe a submission, and dogs are pretty tough to come by. He's I
• 8:56
  mean tier rankings, I'll give it away. He's my second on the seventy
• 9:00
  six hundred or below price tag there. So yeah, a ton of interest
• 9:03
  in this fight, like what I'm seeing from the ownership numbers. Keep it
• 9:07
  rolling. What's going on, Big Driggs. Appreciate you hanging out with us.
• 9:11
  Man our second fight on the car, Tom Nolan taking on Nicholas Mada
• 9:16
  looking at the odds or Nolan ninety two hundred not a seventy seven thousand,
• 9:20
  Tom Nolan minus three fifty plus two eighty five on the way back. A
• 9:26
  couple of these big fit or like big favorites to finish inside the distance prop
• 9:30
  minus twelve hundred for this fight. To finish Nolan minus too eighty five MODA
• 9:35
  plus three hundred again looking at the metrics, minus twelve hundred to finish,
• 9:39
  minus two eighty five for the favorite, plus three hundred for the dog.
• 9:43
  This fight under one and a half minus two eighty five. All of that
• 9:46
  Scream's gotta play some of this fight. Mine has been awful in the USC
• 9:50
  trey. Iigden just box his ears off last fight as a primary grappler who's
• 9:54
  never knocked nobody out, So man, it's hard to get behind him.
• 9:58
  But he's gonna be low on and this fight, if he does win,
• 10:01
  it's gonna be by a knockout. So all of sum met low ownership.
• 10:05
  It's not a fun click though, because I think he's bad and I think
• 10:07
  he gets school. How do you see this one going? Yeah? I
• 10:11
  do, Man, I don't know this. This is a tough one.
• 10:13
  I think that just looking at these guys, Nolan looks like the better striker.
• 10:18
  He's gonna be taller, longer, he's he throws straighter shots, and
• 10:22
  he's got more tools in his arsenal, where Matt is really just looking to
• 10:26
  take his opponent's head off. That's the only edge he has in this fight
• 10:28
  in my opinion. Well, I guess two edges will be pure one punch
• 10:33
  power and then experience. Nolan's only had six fights so far, so I
• 10:39
  mean, he looks good against these scrubs. But Mada looked pretty damn good
• 10:41
  against scrubs too, I thought before he came to the UFC, and then
• 10:45
  he's just looked like trash in the UFC, and then we got Nolan is
• 10:48
  a finisher. Mad has been finished in every one of his losses. So
• 10:52
  that's kind of what's leading this minus twelve hundred inside the distance line. But
• 10:56
  I was shocked when I saw minus twelve hundred inside the distance. Be honest
• 11:00
  with you, I think that there's a decent chance this goes the distance.
• 11:03
  I think I might bet that this does go the distance. I like the
• 11:05
  over one and a half as well, but I think that the line is
• 11:11
  probably a bit too wide. I just am not sold enough on Nolan coming
• 11:18
  to the big show against a more experienced guy. Maybe he isn't a high
• 11:22
  volume guy. He's a little bit worried about that power coming from Mada.
• 11:26
  That could make it a closer fight on the scorecards. And then, like
• 11:28
  we mentioned, Mada has huge power, he could also knock Nolan out,
• 11:31
  So it's knockout or bust, probably either way for the win on Mada,
• 11:37
  but that's the only way he's gonna have any chance of scoring. Well,
• 11:39
  I don't think anyone's gonna be on him, So for that reason, I
• 11:43
  do want some Mada exposure. Give me a very low knockout or something like
• 11:46
  that. But just pick wise, I had to go with Nolan. I
• 11:50
  think he could win by any method here. He's probably the higher volume striker,
• 11:54
  the better striker overall, more likely to take the fight to the ground,
• 11:58
  more durable. So I actually picked him to win a unanimous decision,
• 12:03
  So that minus twelve hundred inside the distance a little bit too crazy to me.
• 12:07
  I do think if he does win an unanimous decision, there's a decent
• 12:11
  chance he's not on the optimal lineup. So I was gonna put this as
• 12:15
  a like four star on the rankings, but that minus twelve hundred is just
• 12:20
  sitting there right next to it. When I'm typing, I'm like, I
• 12:22
  gotta go five star. I gotta go with the metrics over what I think.
• 12:26
  So for me, it's gonna be like a five star on rankings,
• 12:28
  But when I end up doing my lineups, I might end up under on
• 12:31
  this fight, and I'll change it to a four star if that's the case.
• 12:35
  Yeah, that all makes sense. I mean Nolan's gonna be one of
• 12:37
  the more popular fighters on this card, Like he's ninety two hundred, and
• 12:39
  there's so many good upper tier plays, but ank Elia's ninety five, Silva's
• 12:45
  ninety six, like that four hundred three hundred that goes a decent long way
• 12:50
  on a slate like this, and that prop minus two eighty five, minus
• 12:52
  three fifty favorite. We have forty three and ten for the ownership right now,
• 12:58
  and that's why I takes mo degree. I might agree it's not a
• 13:01
  fun overweight stands, but when he wins, I think it's by knockout.
• 13:05
  Like I just can't ignore these metrics. I maybe if you want to do
• 13:09
  it, like plus six fifty is the best I see on the market for
• 13:11
  a fight goes the distance right now. For how you're talking, especially,
• 13:15
  sounds like you were thinking, like it is really weird. There's a couple
• 13:18
  fights on this card that are juice like we've never really seen. Minus twelve
• 13:22
  hundred. Usually this feels like it could be like a minus six hundred spot
• 13:24
  or something like that. So yeah, maybe a little value on the over.
• 13:28
  And if you told me this fight goes the distance, I probably would
• 13:31
  full fade Tom Nolan. The upper range is just too good there, So
• 13:35
  I'm gonna lie sign with the metrics. I'm gonna I like both these guys
• 13:39
  very well. Might be more overweight to Mode than Nolan because ten percent if
• 13:43
  you go twenty definitely not going eighty something percent Nolan and doubled in the field.
• 13:46
  There, So two fights to start off the card and two fights I'll
• 13:50
  have a lot invested in and want some optimal scores to start it off.
• 13:54
  And again this is in the apex. You can maybe benefit wrestlers a little
• 13:58
  more, cage easier to grab. I wouldn't be surprised if no one takes
• 14:03
  it to the Matt. Not sure Mode really has much off his back,
• 14:05
  but wouldn't be surprised to see a striking match either. Appreciate you hanging out
• 14:09
  with us, Matt as well. Good to see in here. We'll keep
• 14:13
  it rolling again. Appreciate all the lights coming in. People are still weighing
• 14:16
  in as well. Looks like over half people have made weight. Hopefully the
• 14:20
  rest make weight as well. Will keep you updated. Third fight on the
• 14:22
  card, Gen Silva, Wess and Wilson. Biggest favorite on the card is
• 14:26
  Gene Silva ninety six hundred, Wilson sixty six hundred, Silva minus nine hundred
• 14:31
  money line over minus one thousand at a lot of places, with Wilson plus
• 14:37
  six hundred roughly on the way back. Another monster inside the distance minus four
• 14:41
  fourteen hundred for this fight to finish, Jean Silva minus eight hundred inside the
• 14:46
  distance Wes and Wilson plus eight hundred. Silva in round one is minus one
• 14:52
  fifty. So yeah, the books are saying Wes and Wilson is cheeks.
• 14:56
  Jean Silva is gonna walk right through him. It's giving up some USC debut.
• 15:01
  I don't know. It feels like Wes and Wilson's just awful. And
• 15:03
  that's where the line is that way. I don't know if Jean Silva deserves
• 15:07
  to be over minus one thousand against anyone. You tell me your thoughts there,
• 15:11
  and can he pay off this ninety six hundred price tag and be optimal?
• 15:15
  Yeah? I wasn't like sold on Silva at all. So there's no
• 15:18
  way I would bet this line on him. I don't see any value at
• 15:22
  all. If there's any value, I'm betting the underdog, to be honest
• 15:24
  with you. But just going back and watching Wilson, there's just nothing good
• 15:28
  about this guy's game. I mean, it is submission grapplings decent, but
• 15:31
  he can't control where the fight's gonna take place. He kind of just needs
• 15:35
  to jump guillotine or try and grab a news ankle or something like that.
• 15:39
  But once the fight's on the ground like these Silver Better is gonna be sweating
• 15:41
  it out if that happens. But I do think that Silva is probably the
• 15:46
  better wrestler can use it in defense to keep the fight standing. He's gonna
• 15:48
  be walking Wilson down, throwing bombs. Wilson doesn't eat shots well, so
• 15:52
  I think Silva probably puts them away, probably puts them away early. You
• 15:56
  said minus one fifty to win in round one. That's sixty percent right there.
• 16:02
  That's making me think I need like at least sixty percent of this guy
• 16:04
  in my lineups. Like ninety six is a tough price to pay, but
• 16:08
  when we're comparing money lines, it's only you know what, one hundred bucks
• 16:12
  more than the next guy on DraftKings, but a wide margin, more likely
• 16:18
  to win, wide margin, more likely to win early and in the first
• 16:22
  round minus one fifty. You don't see that very often. So yeah,
• 16:25
  I gotta go with Silva as the preferred play. I'll get as much as
• 16:27
  I can afford, but I am fine with whatever amount I need to go
• 16:32
  down. There's so many people I'm find going down to if I need to
• 16:34
  in order to like my lineup somewhere else more. But on the Wilson side,
• 16:38
  I think he's I mean, I don't know about somewhat live, but
• 16:42
  it would not shock me completely to see this guy grab an neck, just
• 16:45
  junkie guillotine and get the tap at no ownership. I think it'll be like
• 16:52
  five percent ownership something like that. So I might double the field, go
• 16:55
  go five to ten percent ownership with my one fifty. But if I'm just
• 16:59
  making twenty handbuilds, I'm mixing him out and it would be silver pass man.
• 17:04
  We've been locked up on these first three fights. I really love to
• 17:07
  see it. And that last question I was gonna ask you, like,
• 17:10
  how many lineups would it take you to finally Coick Wes and Wilson's name.
• 17:14
  For me, it would probably be seventy five. Maybe I know I'm not
• 17:18
  getting there in twenty I'd say you, if I make fifty, all have
• 17:22
  at least one. Yeah, that sounds good, that makes sense, And
• 17:26
  I build the slate plan for twenty entry in below. They had that three
• 17:30
  dollars twenty entry Max Haymaker they used to run. Now it looks like they're
• 17:33
  trying to transit or they're kind of transitioning the three dollars one to fifty.
• 17:37
  Max could still obviously put twenty teams in there. You don't have to max
• 17:41
  it. But when I am doing twenty years below, we're building single entries
• 17:45
  and stuff like that, I'm definitely not getting any Wes and Wilson. Jean
• 17:48
  Silva. Like, if I land up, if I love my script and
• 17:52
  I thirty percent, I'd be good with that because there's so many other viable
• 17:56
  options up top that the price tag. He could score one ten and still
• 18:00
  not be enough. But I love my whole script and he and I have
• 18:03
  seventy percent, I'd also love that as well. So that's kind of how
• 18:06
  I'm with this Upwardsier I'm miss whatever I like for these dogs, Like I
• 18:10
  want to get the mid tier in the dog exposure to where I like it,
• 18:12
  and then up top I'll juggle these other guys around. But yeah,
• 18:15
  I mean he probably walks in here destroys them when at to be shocked.
• 18:18
  If West and Wilson won, I mean, we've seen a lot crazy We've
• 18:22
  seen crazy things happen in this sport. So he could kick them in the
• 18:26
  nuts and it be a dq could you could talk to a lot of bad
• 18:27
  things in New existence. But yeah, I definitely want some silva. No
• 18:32
  West and Wilson run the shaun Ze Green in here, easy bets. People
• 18:37
  watching live, what's going on? Appreciate all you're hanging out, familiar faces
• 18:41
  as always. Hope everybody out there having a great Friday. Plenty of money
• 18:45
  be made on this week. And yeah you missed that three dollars twenty entry
• 18:48
  max. It was really the nut contest. That is why when I've been
• 18:53
  doing content the past three years, four years, whatever it may be,
• 18:56
  I directed it to that contest because fits bankrules. There's one dollar twenty entry
• 19:00
  max stuff too, and I just man, I'm not good at single entry
• 19:04
  stuff in MMA man, like you can have the six or six get everything
• 19:08
  right, but the ninety three hundred guy outscores the ninety four hundred guy by
• 19:14
  two points, and that train of twelve people you take the second nuts and
• 19:18
  you get paid pennies essentially instead. So it's an MMV score for me.
• 19:22
  Dial in some exposures, but hey, reach their own little rent right there.
• 19:26
  We'll keep it rolling for me. Actually, I'd say I've moved into
• 19:30
  I like doing the one fifty in that three dollars, and then for me,
• 19:33
  the twenty or less is usually the big contest, Like for this week
• 19:36
  in twenty dollars, I'm not gonna throw one hundred and fifty lineups in MAT,
• 19:38
  so if I do play it, I'll probably limit myself to twenty lineups
• 19:41
  or less. That's what I'm thinking this week too. I used to match
• 19:45
  every single week the MMA, but Avis shrunk it a little bit. Like
• 19:48
  it used to be like fifteen bucks twenty eight thousand people. This week's twenty
• 19:52
  bucks, like nineteen thousand or something, And I was getting my ass kicked
• 19:56
  for a little while too, So I'm starting to do that thing too,
• 19:59
  throw like twenty fifty to set whatever it may be, and then I can
• 20:02
  play more condensed there, whereas the one to fifty, like you're saying,
• 20:04
  if I will max the three dollars one fifty, I will have some West
• 20:08
  and Wilson in that where I'm not doing in the bigger stuff. So we're
• 20:11
  doing it very similar there. Let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the
• 20:15
  car just reason what easy Bets was saying. Interesting one Freed Bostroz Taylor,
• 20:19
  laplis eighty nine hundred for Reed, seventy three hundred for Lapolis. Looking at
• 20:25
  the odds in this one Fred minus two eighty, laplis plus two forty despite
• 20:30
  is plus one eighty to finish, So unlike these first couple, this is
• 20:33
  expected to go to the distance Farried plus two to twenty five laplis plus six
• 20:38
  fifty. And looking at odds or ownership, we have Farrid at twenty one
• 20:44
  and Lapless at thirteen. That feels maybe a little high. I'm for Reed.
• 20:49
  I hope it's twenty one percent, so he was one of my fades
• 20:52
  and twenty entry in below. Would I be surprised if he goes out there,
• 20:56
  gets four takedowns, top control, maybe finishes it plus two twenty five
• 21:00
  isn't bad, but man, this upper tier is so loaded. I couldn't
• 21:04
  click everyone's name on twenty and below. Him and his brother has been knowing
• 21:07
  be defensively sounds slow down the pace. Lapolo is pretty solid takedown defense,
• 21:12
  so if you can't get those, I really don't think he hits the ceiling.
• 21:15
  So it's darker pass in terms of dfs. But I respect the Bosrat
• 21:21
  brothers and think they're so solid that they'll probably win a unanimous decision and I
• 21:26
  won't really want much. Lapliss is solid, though I said a little bit
• 21:30
  of Laplis underweights fade for Reid. I don't love this fight much at all
• 21:33
  personally, but I don't think it'll really be owned either. What are you
• 21:37
  seeing? Yeah, it could be just because I'm kind of the opposite on
• 21:41
  this one. For me, it's gonna be favorite or pass. I'm definitely
• 21:44
  not forcing basher At into my lineups because I do think he could just be
• 21:48
  a somewhat low volume where he's not gonna score well if this fight takes place
• 21:52
  on the feet for too long. It's also a pretty close fight on the
• 21:55
  feet. Lapolis is a good striker, but what I do like is.
• 21:59
  I mean, I love the Bachelarat brothers. Everything about their game is to
• 22:03
  be honest, but I think for Reid is the better and more likely grappler
• 22:07
  of the two, and in this matchup, where you might not even be
• 22:10
  the better striker, he should be looking to grapple and that's how he's gonna
• 22:12
  score a lot of points. And this matchup is on the ground. I
• 22:17
  think he could finish him on the ground in any round, but I also
• 22:19
  think he could get six plus takedowns, win all three rounds and still score
• 22:26
  one hundred points on the cards. And I also thought, you know,
• 22:29
  just the name Bascharat in DFS probably does stay a little bit low owned.
• 22:33
  So I was kind of like, you know what, I need to get
• 22:34
  a little bit of leverage to Basherat here. I don't know how much I'm
• 22:37
  gonna end up getting. I haven't done lineups yet, but I do think
• 22:41
  I will be overweight on Basharat. Maybe I'll be around that twenty one percent,
• 22:45
  and I'll end up putting it lower on the expected ownership. But I
• 22:48
  just don't really have any interest in Laplis. I think he is really in
• 22:52
  play for a knockout, but he averages sixty nine points and decision wins.
• 22:56
  If he gets a decision win here, actually take the under on sixty nine
• 23:00
  points, So I'm gonna probably exo out Lapolis out of my playpool. I
• 23:06
  think he's in play as a live dog who needs to keep the fight standing.
• 23:10
  If Bashla is spending extended time on the ground, even in a win,
• 23:14
  I don't think Lapolis is gonna get there. But that's why he would
• 23:17
  be in plays just as a live dog. He's cheap, but for me,
• 23:18
  it's gonna be favorite or pass. I think Basharatt is in play for
• 23:23
  a ten x or more scorer in this one. I don't think he'll be
• 23:26
  two owned in his best path to victories on the ground. Yeah no,
• 23:30
  I mean, like the more you talk about it, and I thought the
• 23:33
  same thing like Lapolis when I clicked that lineup. It's eleven favorites win,
• 23:37
  ten favorites win, or like none of these cheap dogs win, and seventy
• 23:41
  somehow is enough because all these upper tier guys score a lot, Like I
• 23:45
  hate the ceiling for him free definitely. Yeah, you can paint a picture
• 23:49
  his wrestling all of that. Just when I'm comparing him to like Marcus McGee,
• 23:55
  Joshua Van, Tom Nolan, where would you rank him of those four?
• 24:02
  So I'm putting McGee's one. I'm looking forward to your your breakdown on
• 24:07
  Yeah, I like his just ground upside and if he gets to take that
• 24:10
  like so I have him, so we'll get there. But right now I'm
• 24:12
  gonna rank him last. Yeah that is, and then it would be between
• 24:18
  Bachearat and Van. I'm not sure, so I guess I'm sorry. I'm
• 24:23
  a little bit more interested in how Shu I put I'm Bascharat and Van are
• 24:30
  similar to me, but I'm much more interested in Van's opponent than i am
• 24:34
  a Bachelarats. So maybe that puts bachelarat as to Nolan will be first.
• 24:40
  That makes a lot of sense. I like like the thought process those are
• 24:42
  and we'll play a lot of lines. But like if the ownership and you
• 24:47
  loved all your ownership and like you had more McGee than Basharat, I don't
• 24:51
  think you're changing anything unless it's a wide margin. But that's important the rankings
• 24:55
  up here, because I'm struggling with these top tier guys. FORID is gonna
• 24:57
  be one I'm leaving off and twenty and below, and it is scary like
• 25:00
  he definitely could ruin my night wrestling. He's a good fighter. I do
• 25:06
  understand that. I think all these guys in the upper ak nine k range
• 25:11
  you can pay. You can see a clear path to a big score from
• 25:14
  him and on the optimal. So let's get right to that fight. Marcus
• 25:17
  McGee guests in Blanos ninety one hundred McGee seventy one hundred Blanos. Looking at
• 25:22
  the odds minus, the odds have come down, so sin about minus two
• 25:26
  fifteen is Marcus McGee now he opened minus three seventy five Blanos plus one eighty
• 25:33
  four on the way back. This fight is minus two fifteen to finish.
• 25:37
  Earlier in the week it was minus two fifty. So some money kids come
• 25:41
  in this past couple of days on Blanos and on fight the over and then
• 25:45
  looking at the odds to finish McGee minus one twenty inside the distance Bolanos plus
• 25:51
  three sixty. So may my take is I just love this fight. Blonos
• 25:55
  is one of my favorite dogs. If it's on the feet, which Marcus
• 25:57
  McGee has been a primary. He doesn't hasn't shot for takedowns. I mean
• 26:03
  Blanos, this line looks off, so I think that's why some money's coming
• 26:06
  on him. But and Marcus McGee comes out there and tries to wrestle,
• 26:10
  I mean his subprop is plus two to twenty five. Actually now it's plus
• 26:12
  two hundred yesterday when I was right now plus two twenty five. So I
• 26:15
  think it's clear as day. If he wins, which he's over minus two
• 26:18
  hundred, it's gonna be a takedown and he probably just subs them. Could
• 26:22
  be in the first round, could be second, whenever, But gimme wrestling
• 26:26
  and our top control upside, which I guess that's kind of why you're saying
• 26:30
  for Reid as well. I just I respect Lapolis's takedown defense and ground game
• 26:36
  a lot more than I respect blonos is at the end of the day,
• 26:38
  So that's kind of the only thing. But you can see a lot of
• 26:41
  comparisons in that fight, Blonos on the feet and McGee on the ground.
• 26:45
  I'm picking McGee and I went back and forth because I'm not one hundred percent
• 26:49
  certain McGee would lose a striking match. I'm ninety nine percent certain Blonos is
• 26:53
  losing on the mat, So I think he has more pass but when talking
• 26:59
  dogs and cheek guys, I'll definitely have a good amount of Blanos too.
• 27:00
  I like this fight and last thing before I throw it to you our ownership.
• 27:03
  Right now, we have Marcus McGee twenty two, that's music to my
• 27:07
  ears. Bolanos seventeen. I love that for sure, and I'd probably be
• 27:11
  overweight on both of those. So what do you see in this one?
• 27:15
  Yeah, pretty much the same, except for I just I don't I haven't
• 27:22
  seen enough of McGee's ground game to like trust that he's gonna go there.
• 27:25
  I do think that Belanos is bad enough on the ground though, where that
• 27:30
  was really what made me pick McGee as the winner. I kind of think
• 27:36
  it is a striking match, and if it is, then the line's definitely
• 27:40
  off. Give me Blanos as my play, but it's it's pretty close on
• 27:44
  the feet. I don't have a real preferred play in a striking match,
• 27:48
  but if his fight's gonna go to the ground, it's gonna be McGee taking
• 27:51
  it there. I don't think he's a great wrestler. I just think he's
• 27:53
  more of a power wrestler where he's just he could just grab onto his oponent
• 27:56
  or like you know, double leg him like a football tackle. He's in
• 28:02
  play for that. I don't know how great his control game would be,
• 28:03
  but I think he is live for the submission. And he's got power on
• 28:08
  the feet too, so he's definitely in play for the knockout. The metrics
• 28:12
  are what are what are making me want this fight, and I think both
• 28:18
  sides are in play where McGee he could get a knockout, he could get
• 28:21
  a submission. Either one of those probably score well. But if he's not
• 28:25
  landing more than let's say two takedowns in this fight, I think he's scoring
• 28:29
  less than ten X in a decision here. And on the Bilanos side,
• 28:33
  if he's spending any time on the ground or against the cage, he's not
• 28:37
  going to be scoring there. He's already not very high volume on the feet.
• 28:40
  He's not going to be looking to wrestle. So I think we need
• 28:42
  the knockout for any real upside from Berlanos. Otherwise we're shooting for a ten
• 28:47
  X type of win. So I don't know what I'm gonna do with this
• 28:51
  one. The film is kind of telling me that I want to hope that
• 28:53
  it goes the distance with McGee winning and him just not scoring enough, and
• 28:56
  I want to get away from this fight. But at the same time,
• 29:00
  the metrics are telling me it's probably a good one to target. So I
• 29:03
  don't know. This is the one I'm most confused on. You liking it
• 29:07
  and being high on on it make me want to target it more. But
• 29:11
  I think right now, I'm gonna when we finish, I'm gonna do all
• 29:15
  my fight rankings and all that stuff, and then I'll start building my lineups.
• 29:18
  Right right now, in my head, I think I'm going to avoid
• 29:21
  it with any handbuilds and then I'll kind of let the optimizer do its thing,
• 29:26
  and if it gives me, you know, twenty to thirty percent of
• 29:27
  both of these guys, then so be it. But it's a tough one
• 29:33
  for me. I don't really know. Yeah, the more you're talking about,
• 29:36
  I see all the cases you're saying, and I'm getting I'm a little
• 29:40
  more hesitant on it. But then I look at ownership and it looks to
• 29:42
  actually be pretty low owned. Could you cube itive ownership wise? Man?
• 29:48
  I know I'm gonna be playing gltos as a dog because when you compare them
• 29:52
  to some of these big punts like I like them more than Nikolau. I
• 29:55
  like them more than Johnny Walker. I like it more than Arlosky. Like
• 29:59
  there's only so many dogs down here that I like. So I know i'll
• 30:00
  have that side, but maybe I will, I don't know. Maybe I'll
• 30:06
  change McGee to underweight, for Reid to underweight, and just like some of
• 30:11
  my McGee ownership to for Red. But then I'll probably be underweight on both.
• 30:15
  But I'm not completely dead at Freed wins. I can see like they
• 30:18
  both I guess have the same path, Like Fared can wrestle and get a
• 30:22
  lot of talk control. I guess he's probably more willing to wrestle than McGee
• 30:26
  is. But if McGhee does it man like, I think it'll be easy.
• 30:30
  See, I think that bash Rat is a really good wrestler and grappler,
• 30:33
  whereas you think I don't think that about him. Is just that this
• 30:37
  matchup makes him look Yeah it would be Yeah, No, it's really the
• 30:41
  matchup for me too, and I respect laplis is take on defense, So
• 30:45
  the matchup's way worse for Freed, where I know we'll wrestle more. Yeah,
• 30:48
  that's tough. I'm gonna have to think about that to all of our
• 30:51
  content. We'll be up on the site, though mine will be up finished
• 30:53
  after the show, hoping thirty minutes after something like that, everything will be
• 30:59
  up. But a very interesting fight and one that you had me thinking a
• 31:03
  lot too. Lou In here, Sady's here, Detrol Marley, Matty Ice,
• 31:06
  my man, what's going on? Good to see you, Yeah,
• 31:08
  lou Man, I saw you at a midnight show last night. What the
• 31:11
  heck? I can't stay up that late. I'm an old man these days.
• 31:14
  I'm gonna have to check the replay on that one. I was definitely
• 31:17
  in bed at midnight as well. It's left good over here. Let's keep
• 31:19
  it rolling. Next fight on the card, Matthew said, mid tier fight.
• 31:25
  One of the three mid tier fights I absolutely love. Matthew Semosberger pressing
• 31:27
  Parsons eighty four hundred Semosberger seventy eight hundred Parsons. This fight is minus or
• 31:34
  it's a coin flip on each side. So yesterday when I was runt it,
• 31:37
  Semosberger was minus one thirty. We saw a lot of line movement.
• 31:41
  Semlsberger opened plus one thirty. Parsons was the favorite at minus one fifty.
• 31:45
  A couple of minutes later, Semlsberger got by it a minus one twenty five
• 31:49
  was sitting at about there for a couple of weeks, and then as of
• 31:53
  blade parsons, the past day has taken some money and it's now a coin
• 31:57
  flip. It's minus one seventy five to finish Semlsberger plus one fifty parsons plus
• 32:04
  two fifteen inside the distance. I mean, this is just a classic clash
• 32:07
  of styles. For me, Semlsberger wanted to keep it on the feet.
• 32:10
  Parsons will be chaining takedowns. Can he get those takedowns? Or does Semlsburger,
• 32:16
  who hits like a truck, find the chin of parsons and put them
• 32:20
  away. It's how I see it. So eighty four hundred and seventy eight
• 32:22
  hundred, I'm gonna have more. I don't have a strong lean on the
• 32:25
  winner. I like seeing the line move in parsons favor, but I wanted
• 32:30
  him to be less owned because a lot of Semlsberger lineups build a team.
• 32:35
  Have Semuolsberger take Semolsburger out, plug in parsons. There's six hundred dollars you're
• 32:39
  leaving right there on a very close fight. So just for that reason alone,
• 32:45
  I think I'll probably have more parsons. But if ownership gets crazy now
• 32:49
  and that's six hundred difference, lets Semlsberger way less owned, I think I
• 32:53
  maybe want to go that side. So I'll be keeping a close eye on
• 32:55
  ownership in this one. Right now we have it Semmelsburger twenty eight, Parsons
• 33:01
  twenty six. And if that is the case, I definitely will probably have
• 33:05
  more press and parsons. And again I'll be using in a lineups having Semlsburger
• 33:08
  in taking them out, leaving salary. What do you see in this fight
• 33:14
  again? Minus one ten apiece? Yeah, that could be one I end
• 33:16
  up adjusting because I think I did ownership first, and then I went and
• 33:20
  I adjusted our info, so I changed all the lines and another line that
• 33:23
  I changed it went from minus one thirty to minus one ten on Semolsburger.
• 33:29
  But it also went from like minus three hundred inside the distance to plus sorry,
• 33:32
  minus one seventy five, So more people are starting to think that could
• 33:37
  go all three. But yeah, I might move parsons ownership up because now
• 33:44
  with that line movement is gonna come more ownership. So I might up him
• 33:49
  and lower Semlsburger or maybe just up him. I'm not sure yet. To
• 33:52
  keep it brings me back to that Jeremiah Wells. I think Court McGee fight.
• 33:57
  It was something like that eighty four maybe it was another Simalsburger fight.
• 34:00
  I think it was the Semmonsburger Jeremie Wells. There's eighty four hundred and seventy
• 34:04
  eight hundred, and money was coming in on Wells or Semmlsburger at seventy eight
• 34:08
  hundred, but the eighty four hundred he stayed the same, and like he
• 34:12
  ended up being a little higher owned because people play the leveling game, like
• 34:16
  you would think Parsons would be way higher on. But I'm curious to see
• 34:20
  what you're gonna do on ownership because that's you say, yeah, but yeah.
• 34:25
  So the way I'm thinking it now is that Parsons will be higher owned,
• 34:29
  Semlsburger will be a little bit lower owned, and I just like both
• 34:32
  sides. I think if Parsons wins, is gonna come on the ground,
• 34:36
  whether that be five plus takedowns uh and scoring well in a decision or just
• 34:42
  getting into the ground and submitting this guy at some point He's live for both
• 34:45
  of those types of wins, but Semolsburger is gonna have a bit of a
• 34:50
  striking edge in this one. I don't think Parsons is a good wrestler.
• 34:53
  I just think his best work would be done once it hits the ground,
• 34:55
  and Semlsburger is just a little bit too patient off his back, doesn't have
• 35:00
  great takedown defense, he doesn't have a great get up game, so it's
• 35:04
  more so I think he's in play to use his wrestling to keep this fight
• 35:08
  standing, and he's just got big time power. He knocks down most of
• 35:13
  his opponents, and Parsons eat some shots. So the way I'm picking this
• 35:15
  fight to go down is Semolsburger getting an early knockout, maybe after he stuffs
• 35:21
  a couple of takedowns here or there. But if he doesn't get the early
• 35:24
  knock knockout, then Parsons probably does come back and wins this fight, whether
• 35:30
  it be a decision or submission. It's just a great fight to target right
• 35:34
  there in the mid range. But with this recent line movement, I'll be
• 35:37
  overweight on Semolsburger and now probably underweight on Parsons, where I would have wanted
• 35:43
  to come into this card with Parsons as an underdog that I'm pretty interested in.
• 35:46
  So I don't know a lot of changes on this one. But what
• 35:49
  up John Chat? Yeah, what's going on? John? We got Dennison
• 35:52
  here. Berger's talks making him hungry. I'm hungry too. I'm having a
• 35:57
  euro after this. I'm excited for that Nickel here. What's going on?
• 36:00
  That boy in that screen, He's gonna be fighting for a big one pretty
• 36:05
  soon. Shaun die in here as well. Yeah, it was good.
• 36:08
  Shout on the minus three hundred inside the distance, the minus one seventy five.
• 36:13
  That's huge line movement pretty late in the week. I still am gonna
• 36:17
  have a lot of this fight. But of the three, as Ali asked
• 36:21
  this before, we keep going mid tier fights. Phil Haws, Bruno Ferreira,
• 36:23
  Samuelsberger, Parsons, Jim Miller, Gabriel Benitez ranked those fights one to
• 36:30
  three on interest. Yeah. I love those fights. It's tough. Yeah,
• 36:36
  I don't know mine's mine's Phil Haws Ferrera one, the fact off Haws's
• 36:39
  chin Ferrara never getting a third round, and the inside the distance prop Semulsberger
• 36:45
  Parsons is two. The inside distance scares me a bit, but I think
• 36:50
  it's just that Parsons wins. It's a lot of takedowns control Samuelsberger with e
• 36:52
  Koh and Miller Benitez. I don't know it's a banger as well, but
• 36:57
  I could see it staying on the feet more so on a second round knockout
• 37:01
  or so. But I don't know what are your thoughts. That's tough,
• 37:04
  but yeah, I would say Hawes fight first and then the next one is
• 37:07
  just tough between those next two. And I think I've gone back and forth
• 37:10
  between four star and five star on both of the other two, so I'm
• 37:14
  not sure. You can go to my fight rankings though, and check tomorrow.
• 37:17
  I'll have it official and you can see if it's a five star or
• 37:22
  a four star and you can decide which one I like more. That way,
• 37:24
  love it. And then someone asks has all fighters made weight? Yes?
• 37:28
  I am seeing every single fighter except Manel Cop hit the scales right now
• 37:32
  and everybody on point for weight. So waiting on one. Love to see
• 37:37
  that baby. Hopefully keep all twelve right there, keep it rolling next fight
• 37:39
  on the card. I appreciate it, everyone hanging out, Appreciate that light
• 37:43
  fund if you want all of our premium MMA content, those fight rankings,
• 37:46
  slate plan projections, ownership, golf content, NFL, NBA, NHL,
• 37:52
  Monster weekend over here, head over to shipanation dot com, Weekly, monthly,
• 37:57
  six months, and annual packages. All do include the discord except the
• 38:01
  weekly package. No better price, get over, no better community head over
• 38:07
  ship in nation dot com. Let's keep it rolling to I mean, man,
• 38:10
  a very interesting sanctioned fight while those Corda's Acosta taking on andre Alovski ninety
• 38:16
  five hundred a costa sixty seven hundred for Olowski. This fight is a Coasta
• 38:22
  minus seven fifty Arlovsky plus five point fifty. This fight is minus two sixty
• 38:27
  to finish. I mean, what Arloski ninety eight years old nowadays and does
• 38:32
  he post any threat offensively for Coasta to be worried about? This line looks
• 38:37
  pretty accurate to me. I don't know, man, but I guess how
• 38:40
  does ninety five hundred ANKA lives in the range? We got silva in the
• 38:44
  range we're talking about, Manel Cop Joshua Van like, this upper range is
• 38:50
  tough. So what's your thoughts? Cop? Always lasts you are right?
• 38:53
  Yeah, I'm gonna x Arlovski out in this one. I think the only
• 38:57
  way he's live in this fight is if Cortes Acosta respects him a little bit
• 39:02
  too much, goes out there and makes it a slow paced striking match,
• 39:07
  and we probably still need some poor judging, but I mean, that's damn
• 39:10
  near likely at this point. But that's the only way Alowski's live. I
• 39:15
  mean, I guess they're heavyweights. He could land one big shot, but
• 39:17
  I don't even really think he's live for a knockout, to be honest,
• 39:21
  So his path to victory is still not going to score ten X in my
• 39:24
  opinion. So I'm just gonna x our Alowski out here and then with Cortes
• 39:29
  Acosta, it's just ninety five hundred dollars, is the what makes it tough,
• 39:34
  because we really need a first round knockout for him. At that price.
• 39:37
  He's not gonna be going out there looking to wrestle at all. He
• 39:39
  does strike with decent volume, but not decent enough to pay off ninety five
• 39:44
  hundred dollars without a finish. And I'm thinking if we even make it to
• 39:47
  the second round, he's probably off the optimal lineup, so we probably need
• 39:52
  a first round knockout from Cortes Acosta, and I think he's like plus one
• 39:55
  forty five to win in round one. That's decent, But I'd still rather
• 40:01
  pay up for Silva if I can. I'd probably rather pay down for Nolan.
• 40:07
  But that's what the field is doing too, and that's kind of what
• 40:09
  puts me on Acosta. Maybe I can get a little bit different by going
• 40:13
  up here ninety five hundred dollars Acosta and he can get a first round knockout,
• 40:16
  maybe even a sixty second knockout, so I will get a little bit
• 40:21
  of exposure there. The way I see it though, is probably twenty to
• 40:23
  thirty percent something like that, because I do prefer those other those other fighters
• 40:28
  if we're just talking raw and more likely points. But damn, these are
• 40:32
  big boys or Alawski's forty four years old. Acosta looks like a solid striker.
• 40:37
  Is just that he's a little bit too green and the price tag is
• 40:42
  what just makes it a little too hard. Yeah, I mean, I'm
• 40:45
  definitely fading a lost. He's the easiest fade on the card probably for me,
• 40:51
  him and Weston Wilson. But it's definitely close between those two as far
• 40:54
  as ownership. So yeah, well we have above ninety two hundred Geen Silva
• 40:59
  high. I'm gonna go highest priced these top four guys ninety two hundred above
• 41:02
  Sola forty nine, A Costa twenty seven, ank Laiah forty, Tom Nolan
• 41:07
  forty three. So of those top four, three of the four above forty
• 41:12
  and I agree on that a Cosa is the odd man out. So just
• 41:15
  for that reason alone, I'll be eating mid tier chalk. I mean Alowski's
• 41:19
  forty four. Yeah, I joked at ninety eight, forty four years old.
• 41:22
  I mean, man, A Costa could easily just walk through him and
• 41:25
  make it look like cake. Maybe he's a little gun shy and just they
• 41:29
  stare a little bit. There's definitely concern there. But we're talking one point
• 41:34
  five ownership discount from all these upper guys there in Chalky Arolinus. When I'm
• 41:38
  playing the mid tier stuff, I gladly will click a coast over Silva E
• 41:43
  or ankle I of just ownership wise. If an ankle I of teams du
• 41:46
  twenty five times and this one's duped five times, like give me that five
• 41:51
  times, He's not five times more likely? Is ankle ive the outscore Coaster
• 41:53
  or any of these guys up top, I believe, so that's how I'll
• 41:57
  be using it in a vacuum, though I do preferrank Eliah with the extra
• 42:01
  ten minutes and the wrestling up side. I do prefer Gen Silva probably Tom
• 42:07
  Nolan for the three hundred savings too, but it's an ownership game, duplication
• 42:10
  game, so I will be mixing in the coast Alafski easy fade. There
• 42:15
  a couple fights left on the card. Five fights. A lot of bangers
• 42:19
  dan the card here, including this one mid tier fight. Bruno Ferreira Phil
• 42:23
  Hawes eighty three hundred, Ferreira seventy nine hundred Phil Hawes. Bruno is minus
• 42:29
  one thirty Phil Hawes plus one ten fights minus seven hundred two finish. Ferreira
• 42:36
  is plus or for us minus won twenty five inside the distance Phil Hawes plus
• 42:40
  one fifty five. Really curious to get your take on this fight, so
• 42:44
  I'm gonna throw it to you right away. Yeah, I think that Phil
• 42:47
  Hawes has a very weak chin. Ferreira has big time power. Could only
• 42:52
  take one shot for Ferrera to win this fight, and it could come in
• 42:59
  sixty second. He could just break the slate at eighty three hundred dollars.
• 43:04
  But skill wise, man Hawes is better everywhere. Hawes is a better striker.
• 43:08
  Hawes has a big time power too, but Hawes is a much better
• 43:12
  wrestler, and it would be a lot safer of him to go out there
• 43:15
  and look to wrestle to where you can hide your biggest weakness. So I
• 43:20
  have to pick Hawes in this one. I think the wrong guy is favored.
• 43:22
  I mean, Forera is minus one thirty to win, but minus one
• 43:25
  twenty five of that is to win inside the distance. He's knockout or bust,
• 43:30
  and I do not like paying juice on knockout or bust fighters to win,
• 43:35
  So I'm gonna be on Hawes. Hawes will be one of my higher
• 43:37
  owned underdogs on the card. I think he could go out there outstrike for
• 43:40
  Era. I think it's gonna be a t KO either way. I think
• 43:44
  at some point haw Is gonna knock him out if he is winning this fight,
• 43:46
  or he's gonna go out there and wrestle and finish him on the ground,
• 43:49
  That's kind of how I see it going down. Or he's gonna go
• 43:52
  out there and he's gonna be winning this fight until he gets knocked out.
• 43:54
  So either way, we're gonna get a high score in this one. Five
• 43:58
  star for sure. I'm gonna load up on this fight, but I see
• 44:00
  me having maybe fifty percent Hawes and thirty five percent Forrer or something along those
• 44:06
  lines. I'll have a lot of both of them, but I'm more likely
• 44:08
  to be overweight to Hawes and whatever that puts me like in line with or
• 44:14
  a little bit overweight to Ferrera. Yeah, I couldn't have gran anymore.
• 44:17
  I'm glad I throw it to you first. You saved me a lot of
• 44:20
  words. We're locks up on most of these fights, different on some,
• 44:22
  but our ownership right now thirty three percent Forrera, twenty eight percent Phil Hawes.
• 44:28
  Yeah, like you said, I think to the wrong fighter's favor,
• 44:30
  he's better in every way. Like should he not be favored just because his
• 44:34
  chin. I mean, maybe Frera's got that power and his chin isn't.
• 44:37
  We'll find out. But give me the guy that could go out and wrestle
• 44:40
  and just dominate on the mat, could get his own knockout, has the
• 44:44
  like Frere has never been to a third round. Phil Hawes has fought the
• 44:46
  better guys more experienced, like as a plus money, it made it really
• 44:51
  easy for me. Definitely could get chin checked. That's again why I like
• 44:54
  playing multiple lineups. If I was only playing one, more than likely I'm
• 44:58
  clicking Phil Hawes's name. But that's why I like playing multiple because for a
• 45:04
  definitely could chin check him. Your boy Phil Hawes one point, or he
• 45:07
  can get you five points and you only play one lineup and you're dead.
• 45:10
  However, more times than not, give me Phil Hawes in this spot.
• 45:15
  I'll have some for air. Best mid tier fight, probably my favorite fight
• 45:17
  on the card talking DFS. Because of the pricing, I'll probably have the
• 45:22
  most ownership to this fight. It's going on g Kaifer this fight too,
• 45:28
  so I was there live and I will always remember this fight. This fight
• 45:30
  of all fights I've ever watched live, which is a couple of cards,
• 45:34
  sticks out the most. He gave Duran Win the biggest ass kicking I have
• 45:37
  ever seen in like sitting right there, every kick, every punch. It
• 45:43
  was vicious. It was DC was like after the fight obviously boy, it
• 45:47
  was Deron Win just looked broken. I'll never forget that moment. Phil Hawes
• 45:52
  game as bad of an ass being as you can. And I think it
• 45:54
  was herb Dean let that fight go too much. But he definitely has all
• 45:58
  the skill in the world just to keep his keep the chin, keep the
• 46:01
  chin intact, and don't fall down. I mean Farrera couldn't have done that
• 46:05
  even to win. No, No, I mean Duran win was That was
• 46:09
  scary. That was definitely scary. We'll keep it rolling. Showed a lot
• 46:13
  of toughness and appreciative toward these MMA fighters what they put their bodies through a
• 46:16
  couple fights left a banger right here. Ricky Simone Mario Batista eighty six hundred,
• 46:22
  Simon seventy six hundred Batista Simone minus one eighty five Batista plus one sixty
• 46:28
  on the way back. This fight was plus one twenty to finish. Money
• 46:31
  now is coming on the over, so plus one forty five is what it's
• 46:36
  sitting at now. As far as my take on the fight, I'm this.
• 46:40
  I mean, I'm a big Ricky Simone guy. Chain wrestle for days
• 46:45
  averages over five takedowns per fifteen, Batista averages over two takedowns. Batista throws
• 46:51
  good volume. Ricky Simon a solid striker himself. The level of competition though.
• 46:55
  Where it comes to man, Simone's fought all the dudes. Mario Batis
• 47:00
  has been beating up on some bad dudes. I think the skills there arguably
• 47:04
  lost to demand Black chear. He's a good fighter, but I think Simones
• 47:07
  just black. Here's a Dollar Tree version and Ricky Simones the Walmart version or
• 47:12
  whatever. May be similar fighters, but Simon's just better in pretty much every
• 47:15
  area. I think he gets takedowns eventually, striking's good. He mixes it
• 47:22
  up. We just see a classic Ricky mohon Ricky Simone decision win right here.
• 47:27
  So I like Patista as a dog seventy six. If he wins,
• 47:31
  I think it's a high paced fight, reversals, maybe he gets takedown,
• 47:35
  maybe knocks him out. If he wins, I think he scores well.
• 47:37
  But I'm on the Simone side here. What about you? Yeah, I
• 47:40
  love this fight. I'm high on both of these guys. But Ricky Simone
• 47:45
  is just a guy that I'm always going to like on DraftKings just because I
• 47:49
  love his wrestling and I love his pace. He could go out there and
• 47:52
  laying ten plus takedowns and really any given fight, and I just I'm always
• 47:57
  going to be on those guys on DraftKings, and that is what he ultimately
• 48:00
  gave me the edge to Simone and picked him to win in this fight.
• 48:04
  The line made it a little interesting, though, because I think it's pretty
• 48:07
  close, and I do give Bautista the striking edge in this one. I
• 48:09
  think he's the better striker. I think he's the more dangerous striker. I
• 48:13
  think he's the higher volume striker, and he's also good on the ground too.
• 48:16
  It's just that he's not gonna be able to outpay Simon in the wrestling.
• 48:21
  So I'm just gonna be heavy on this fight. In the way I
• 48:23
  put it in my notes, I haven't done any lineups, but in my
• 48:27
  head I see me probably having about forty or so percent Simone thirty or so
• 48:31
  percent Bautista. So I have more lineups with Simone, but that would give
• 48:36
  me more leverage over the field on Bautista, where I'm probably right there or
• 48:40
  along with the field on Simone ownership. And I'd also be fine with Bautista
• 48:46
  over Simone in my single entry. If that's what I end up having to
• 48:50
  do to like my lineup, I'm just gonna make it a point to target
• 48:52
  this fight. I want it in more than half of my mmy lineups.
• 48:58
  But I'm gonna probably start with Simone in my lineup, start building it out,
• 49:01
  and if I need some salary, I'll drop down to Bautista and then
• 49:05
  start seeing what I could do with the lineup. But great fight should be
• 49:07
  fun, should be high paced. But I'll take Simone to win twenty nine
• 49:12
  to twenty eight. Man, either you and I are winning all the money
• 49:15
  or or losing all the money. Because just because we're picking Simone, I
• 49:19
  think he made a good case. Looking at our ownership, thirty nine percent
• 49:22
  Ricky Simone, twenty two percent Mario Batista and sounds pretty accurate to me.
• 49:28
  And with that being said, the thousand dollars difference, how that makes lineups
• 49:31
  like I very well probably will have. I'll be more overweight to Batista then
• 49:36
  I will Ricky Simone. Even though he's not my pick. You get leverage
• 49:39
  off of Simone playing Bautista. He's still gonna be owned, but you a
• 49:44
  lot of different roster construction. It's easier to leave like five hundred on the
• 49:46
  table, et cetera. And he can be one of the highest scores on
• 49:51
  the slate in a win like this is gonna be a high paced fight.
• 49:52
  It's gonna be a great fight. If he wins, he's definitely stuff in
• 49:57
  takedowns, maybe getting reversals. The chinnis Simone like the past there in this
• 50:01
  fight for a big score. So at that ownership, Yeah, I like
• 50:05
  I'll be playing a lot of Batista, but I also like Ricky Simone.
• 50:07
  Another one of the best fights on the card real life and DFS in my
• 50:12
  mind. So that was the fourth last fight on the card. Three fights
• 50:15
  left again, three good ones. Appreciate the like button out there. Take
• 50:19
  one second right now, give us the thumbs up. Subscribe button helps us
• 50:22
  out keep doing these shows. We're excited to be back almost every Friday after
• 50:28
  the little break banger. Right here, some old men going at it.
• 50:30
  Forty year old Jim Miller, thirty five year old Gabriel Benitez, still doing
• 50:36
  the damn thing, especially Jim Miller. Looking at the odds, Jim Miller
• 50:38
  minus one forty nine, Benitez plus one twenty nine. This fight is plus
• 50:45
  or minus two fifty to finish. What's three hundred earlier in the week some
• 50:49
  money on the over now minus two fifty Jim Miller plus one thirty five inside
• 50:52
  the distance Benitas plus one seventy five. So I got two questions for you
• 50:58
  in this one. Is Jim Miller are going to look to get it on
• 51:00
  the mat or if he gets a submission, do you think he's just grabbing
• 51:02
  a neck or something like that? And how does it play out on the
• 51:07
  feet if it does play out, because I Jim Miller, he's been that
• 51:12
  dude on the feet as of late. But Benita's his kicks. I'm a
• 51:15
  sucker for those calf kicks in that body kick, and I'm just not sure
• 51:17
  Jim Miller's legs can take all the damage and still fight on a fee for
• 51:22
  fifteen minutes. So another one. I'm very interested to see what your thoughts
• 51:24
  on it. Yeah, I think I actually think the wrong guy's favored in
• 51:30
  this one. Uh. And we've got Jim Miller forty one years old or
• 51:35
  I think he's about to be forty one years old, and his best work
• 51:37
  I feel like has come of late, especially DraftKings wise, his best work
• 51:42
  has come of late, going back to like twenty eighteen. He's got I
• 51:46
  think it's his last yet, his last eight wins. Miller is averaging one
• 51:51
  hundred and four DraftKings points in those wins. That's that's pretty damn solid.
• 51:55
  And he's going out there, He's blasting guys on the feet. He's an
• 51:58
  even better submission drap. So I do think his bigger edge in this fight
• 52:01
  would be the grappling. I don't think he's an amazing wrestler to go out
• 52:07
  there and just say, all right, we're gonna we're grappling in this fight.
• 52:09
  I think Benitez is dangerous too. Benitez could grab his neck if that's
• 52:14
  the case, and tap Miller out in my opinion, but I do think
• 52:19
  the biggest edge for benit Tes will be the striking department, and then more
• 52:23
  so after the first round. I just think Miller's gonna be super live in
• 52:27
  the first round, maybe the better fighter everywhere in the first round, but
• 52:30
  I expect his best work to come in the first half of this fight and
• 52:34
  then him to start slowing down. I'm not sure he's gonna win that first
• 52:37
  round, but I like Benitez to go out there and win the second round,
• 52:39
  mostly even the second half of the second round, and if it gets
• 52:43
  to the third round, I like Benitez more in that round than I do
• 52:46
  Miller in the first round. So I'm picking Benitez to win the fight.
• 52:51
  I think he could win by any method, but I'll take him to win
• 52:54
  two or three rounds on the scorecards. Maybe he could get you a knockdown
• 53:00
  takedown mixed in there to help out his score. But I just don't know
• 53:04
  what these guys would score in a decision win. I guess like I don't
• 53:07
  know how how high their ceiling is if I'm right, if this does go
• 53:10
  the distance, but they both have finishing upside. Maybe Miller's finishing upside would
• 53:15
  be more likely early and Benitez could possibly be more late, but man,
• 53:20
  Benitez is dangerous early too, So I don't know. I'm gonna be heavy
• 53:23
  on Benitez. I feel like the field's gonna be a little bit too heavy
• 53:27
  on Miller to where I don't want to match it. So I'm thinking I'll
• 53:30
  be like half the field or so on Miller, and maybe I'll double the
• 53:34
  field on Benitas. Yeah, gameril Benitas. I've always done a soccer from
• 53:38
  because of the kicks I have been buying in on this Miller run. As
• 53:43
  of late two, I know I like this fight. I mean looking at
• 53:45
  ownership, so I put it in eventually or at the end of the sleigh
• 53:49
  plan, like I'll play the ownership discount. If it's Miller, if it's
• 53:52
  Benitez, if one looks way more popular looking at ours right now though,
• 53:55
  Miller twenty six, Benitas thirty three. I think it's somewhere around there.
• 54:01
  I think ownership is going to be pretty tough on the mid Say what I
• 54:06
  put thirty three for Bernita? Yeah you have thirty three? Or no,
• 54:08
  I'm sorry, Yeah you do, Yeah you have thirty three. Okay,
• 54:12
  I might I feel like I probably I might have put that in wrong.
• 54:14
  We'll have to I'll go back and check it after this, so ship a
• 54:16
  Nation subscribers be sure to check it out afterwards. Yeah, it'll be on
• 54:21
  the side pretty shortly, I get we'll get projections in there the ownership.
• 54:24
  Maybe it's Miller thirty three, Banita's twenty five. I don't know, something
• 54:29
  like that. I'm kind of just if I like everything else on my exposures.
• 54:32
  This is a fight. I'm good with a lot of fluctuation, like
• 54:36
  it could go to decision and like you said, I don't know how well
• 54:38
  it would score. I mean, I think if you tell me goes a
• 54:42
  decision, I think Miller has more passed because maybe wrestling and can be on
• 54:46
  top, but I don't think you really want it if it's staying on the
• 54:51
  feet Benita's he's dangerous man, like what he was doing on a naba even
• 54:54
  before he got finished, he was piecing them up. I love his kicks
• 54:59
  and stuff, so yeah, I mean yeah, I like I said,
• 55:01
  I've leaned Miller slightly. I think I'm on the beneath as slightly too.
• 55:05
  But I've always been a sucker for his kicks. We got two fights left,
• 55:09
  and I don't know if you saw, man, I was a little
• 55:12
  worried seeing everyone set to the scales except cop mine or one twenty nine and
• 55:16
  a half for one twenty five. So hopefully Nikola takes to the money,
• 55:21
  takes the purse. We'll get right into that fight. The twelve fights to
• 55:24
  eleven wouldn't be fun now in terms of my interests in this fight, I'll
• 55:29
  be underweight. I don't like it too much now. Cop matteas Nicolau nine
• 55:32
  k COP seventy two hundred Nicolau Cop minus two seventy roughly Nikola plus two thirty
• 55:39
  this fight minus one thirty five to finish Cop all the finishing ups or equity
• 55:46
  minus one ten Nikola plus seven seventy five. This is a rematch from almost
• 55:52
  three years ago. Nicolau won his fout decision, close decision. Both guys
• 55:57
  scored awful. I don't no man like I think Kop and Boschrot were my
• 56:02
  least two favorite in this upper tier. Would I be surprised if Cock it's
• 56:06
  a first round knockout, No, but he very well. Second round knockout
• 56:09
  might not be enough for him if he doesn't let his hands go. I
• 56:14
  don't think he offense or wrestles. So looking at his first round prop,
• 56:19
  he is plus three seventy five and round one there's just a lot of other
• 56:22
  better first round upside there, so I think he'll be pretty low. And
• 56:25
  I'm looking at our ownership maybe with this weightness even more twenty eight percent Cop
• 56:31
  and where is nine seventy two nicolaus sixteen percent, So twenty eight and sixteen
• 56:42
  I'll be underweight. I guess I prefer the dog I think if I had
• 56:45
  to pick, but I'll throw it to you on this one. I definitely
• 56:49
  prefer other fights for sure. It's one of my least favorite fights. And
• 56:51
  does the Cop weight miess do anything for you as well? No, not
• 56:55
  really. I mean actually probably if he's not injured, it probably helps him,
• 57:00
  like because the biggest worry for him would be getting taken down. And
• 57:04
  I feel like the people who miss Way it just helps them out with their
• 57:06
  wrestling more so, or even defensive wrestling. But I hope this fight stays
• 57:12
  more so because I think that the field will be on Cop and I just
• 57:15
  I want to fade this fight mostly. I just I don't like the volume
• 57:22
  from Cop. I also don't think he's going to be looking to wrestle,
• 57:23
  especially in this matchup. Maybe he lands one takedown, possibly two throughout the
• 57:29
  course of fifteen minutes, but I think Cop is in play for that knockout.
• 57:31
  We probably needed to come in round one, like you said, So
• 57:36
  with my MMM, maybe I'll max him at twenty percent just to match that
• 57:40
  round one inside the distance line. But with my handbills, I'm really trying
• 57:46
  to fade Cop. I am going to pick him though, to get a
• 57:50
  knockout because I think the first fight was close, but he was really more
• 57:54
  so coming on strong towards the end, and there were some parts where I
• 57:58
  was like, man, I feel like I had money on Nikolao, so
• 58:00
  I was like sweating the Nickelau side, but I was like, damn,
• 58:02
  I'm about to lose this fight. I'mbout to get knocked out. And I
• 58:05
  still think Cop might have even won that fight. But let's say he did
• 58:08
  win the fight. He scored fifty eight DraftKings points and that's not going to
• 58:13
  cut it, especially at nine k And then on the other hand, Nicolao
• 58:16
  did win, but he only scored seventy one. That's not even ten X's
• 58:21
  seventy two hundred dollars salary here, So I don't see any real upside for
• 58:25
  Nickelau here. I guess it would be a submission. But even if he
• 58:29
  wins, I'm not expecting much more than that seventy one that he scored last
• 58:31
  time. So I don't have much interest in Nicolao. He's in play as
• 58:35
  a live dog, sort of like a Taylor Lapalis, but I like him
• 58:38
  more because he's looking to get the fight to the ground where Lapolis is looking
• 58:42
  to strike. So I'll get a little bit of Nicolau I said basically the
• 58:46
  same thing, max him at probably twenty percent in MMM two, but with
• 58:51
  my handbills, I'd rather get away from it, go to underdogs who I
• 58:53
  think have higher ceilings. So it's like a twenty percent max on both,
• 58:58
  but I'd prefer to be closer to zero than twenty. I'm thinking, yeah,
• 59:02
  I love it. A late knockout probably makes it a close first or
• 59:07
  second round, and then he comes on land some big shots and then ends
• 59:10
  up putting them away at some point. I'm in agreement for sure. And
• 59:15
  yeah, this is an interesting point because he has and I wrote it up.
• 59:19
  I'd feel more confident that he'll let his hands go. But if you
• 59:22
  look at last fight against Flipe nos Hantos, there's those Tontos really doing the
• 59:27
  forward pressure and making cop fight in that one, because you just go one
• 59:30
  fight prior. So last fight was September ninth of last year, the other
• 59:35
  one December seventeenth to twenty twenty two. David DeVore. He only landed fifty
• 59:38
  eight significant strikes to Devorax thirty three, so he was fine playing that game,
• 59:44
  doubling him up, landing the bigger shots and winning a decision there and
• 59:47
  then you go earlier in the career, the Nicolu fight, the Pentosia fight,
• 59:52
  stared in the mirror, knocks out oday with fifteen seconds left in the
• 59:55
  round, only landing nineteen before that, this August fight, in the the
• 1:00:00
  Felipe fight, he definitely let his hands go there and he put it on
• 1:00:05
  z August. Two knockdowns, fifty three significant strikes through four minutes. But
• 1:00:08
  I'm more confident than earlier in his career he'll let his hands go. I
• 1:00:13
  could still see him Nikolau just being more passive, circling around a cop,
• 1:00:16
  not going for it completely. But if you think he will, He's another
• 1:00:21
  guy in the upper tier to mix around at a fraction of the ownership as
• 1:00:23
  Nolan ank Ali of stuff like that last fight on the card, that's the
• 1:00:29
  comin event. Please say it does stay. If it doesn't, of course,
• 1:00:31
  projections, ownership, slate plan, everything will be updated to reflect that
• 1:00:37
  last fight. Main event time another rematch. The last two fights of the
• 1:00:42
  night are rematches and Magamat Ankeli of Johnny Walker ninety four hundred, Ankli of
• 1:00:47
  sixty eight hundred Johnny Walker Ankleib minus five fifty Walker plus four hundred this fight
• 1:00:54
  is minus five one hundred to finish and looking at the odds, ank a
• 1:00:58
  Live minus three hundred inside the distance, Johnny Walker plus five point fifty an
• 1:01:02
  Kaalia plus two hundred and round one. So this fight was it took place
• 1:01:08
  a little while ago, pretty actually pretty recent, ank Ali, nothing was
• 1:01:13
  really going on in a round one, they're trading some punches. Anklve did
• 1:01:17
  secure takedown, he landed an illegal knee. I think at Live I said
• 1:01:22
  he was gonna be a future champ. He's so boring. He kind of
• 1:01:24
  the judges took that away from him against Yan, and I think Dana does
• 1:01:29
  want anything but him to be the future champ. But I mean, he
• 1:01:32
  keeps winning fights besides the Paul craigfight he threw away. He's a good wrestler.
• 1:01:37
  It's a steady striker. He's not a DraftKings guy though. So at
• 1:01:42
  ninety four hundred, I still like him because I think he knows he needs
• 1:01:45
  to be aggressive. He needs a finish fights to like show Dana something.
• 1:01:49
  I think he finally realizes that part. The props are good even if he
• 1:01:53
  somehow this fight goes a decision. What four or five takedowns eighteen minutes of
• 1:01:58
  control of time. Like that's all on the cards. I'm not sure how
• 1:02:00
  long they'll stand with Johnny Walker. So yeah, I'll be playing some ankalia
• 1:02:06
  again the story of the slate. I'll be mixing and matching these guys up
• 1:02:07
  here. But I have anklave number two in the tier rankings right now that
• 1:02:13
  I think are very interchangeable up top. But yeah, no Johnny Walker for
• 1:02:16
  me. Though he can bink, he can live, he's live for a
• 1:02:21
  big shot break the slate that way. I think he's probably overhelled though for
• 1:02:23
  the five rounds. How do you see this fight last one in the night.
• 1:02:28
  Yeah, I agree, I have these guys pretty similar in ownership,
• 1:02:30
  and that is pretty much talking me off a Walker. I mean, he's
• 1:02:35
  definitely got first round knockout, break the slate ceiling. But if he doesn't
• 1:02:39
  get the first round knockout, I feel like it's gonna get worse and worse
• 1:02:42
  as this fight moves along. And the only advantages he has would be like
• 1:02:45
  speed, explosiveness, and one shot power early in the fight anyways, So
• 1:02:51
  if he's not getting the knockout, I just don't see how he's winning this
• 1:02:53
  fight even with a low volume Ankliath, He's still the better point fighter in
• 1:02:58
  this one. He's the better or skilled striker, but his easier and safer
• 1:03:02
  path to victory would be to wrestle where he really isn't gonna have to worry
• 1:03:06
  at all about Walker off his back. So I like his wrestling upside,
• 1:03:10
  and that's what's making me want to be possibly overweight to him. I also
• 1:03:15
  think he could knock out Walker in any round have upside there as well.
• 1:03:20
  It's just that his low volume, and if he is winning a low volume
• 1:03:23
  fight, what's forcing him to go out there and get takedowns when it's five
• 1:03:27
  rounds. He's probably trying to conserve his energy a bit. It wouldn't shock
• 1:03:30
  me at all to see Anklive go out there and score seventy nine points in
• 1:03:32
  a decision win or something like that. So it's definitely not an all in
• 1:03:37
  main event. But I feel like the field is going to be fairly low
• 1:03:44
  on this main event compared to others. And when I originally started with my
• 1:03:47
  ownership, I had these guys down like probably ten percent each, but I
• 1:03:52
  was too low overall, so I threw all my extra on the main event,
• 1:03:54
  and that that's what put ank alive up to like the forty percent range,
• 1:03:58
  but I feel like that's almost to higher range. I could see him
• 1:04:00
  being closer to thirty percent in this one. And if he is closer to
• 1:04:03
  thirty percent, then definitely put me down for some leverage. But if he's
• 1:04:08
  at forty percent, I might not get too much. Maybe I'm at like
• 1:04:11
  fifty max or so. I don't know. I don't know what I'm gonna
• 1:04:13
  do with this nine K range. I just know that I'm fine mixing it
• 1:04:16
  around. I'm fine leaving money on the table, and I think if I'm
• 1:04:20
  not or if I'm not playing any contrarian spots, then that'll be my plan.
• 1:04:29
  I'll just make sure I'm leaving money on the table, and maybe i'll
• 1:04:31
  even cap it on the solver at like forty nine seven or forty nine eight
• 1:04:38
  something like that. Yeah, So I think I think that alive. So
• 1:04:42
  we have forty and thirty four right now. Again, it might be changed.
• 1:04:46
  It'll be up on the site shortly after the show. I think that
• 1:04:49
  live ownership's probably right. If anything, I think you're hot on Walker a
• 1:04:54
  little bit. Maybe twenty eight twenty five, I don't know. Again,
• 1:04:58
  you've been way better at ownership than I'm just I always look at it.
• 1:05:00
  I have my own thoughts obviously going into the show and stuff like that,
• 1:05:03
  what people will do if I had to guess. So, if anything,
• 1:05:06
  you're hot on Walker, I think Ankle Lia probably in that forty percent.
• 1:05:10
  Yeah, I want to say I started at like twenty eight Walker, so
• 1:05:13
  maybe I do end up going back down to like twenty eight and then put
• 1:05:15
  that six on the Parsons and then still maybe a little bit more on the
• 1:05:18
  parsons or something. Yeah, yeah, I know, I think that sounds
• 1:05:21
  right as well. Either way, I think Walker's gonna be over owned Anklyth
• 1:05:25
  has he has passed. Like you said, It's definitely not an all in
• 1:05:28
  fight for me, and especially not playing any Walker in twenty entry below.
• 1:05:31
  Like maybe I only play forty Ankle Live zero Walker, so over half my
• 1:05:35
  lineups don't include this fight. There's enough other Ankle Live gets you one oh
• 1:05:41
  five. That's not a lock to be on the optimal. It's how I'm
• 1:05:43
  looking at this card with the others in the nine K range. So I
• 1:05:45
  don't want to make a complete huge stands up top when anyone can get there.
• 1:05:49
  I'd rather make more stands in that mid tier. Certain fights there be
• 1:05:54
  more concentrated on dogs this week than I am favorite. So I guess that's
• 1:05:59
  the story of the slate. What's up going on? Siggy our man three
• 1:06:01
  and a half pounds as always. Yeah, hopefully that fight does stay on
• 1:06:05
  again. Hopefully keep all twelve fights four pm Eastern in the Apex. Always
• 1:06:10
  good talking fights, Big Marley. Any final words for the people now,
• 1:06:14
  men, we'll have everything posted soon. We got PGA going too, so
• 1:06:18
  I've been looking at Tambo and hoops picks for that I had. I only
• 1:06:23
  did one line up last week, but cash, so I was like,
• 1:06:25
  you know what, we gotta go play this PGA a little bit more now
• 1:06:28
  that I know what. I don't know what I'm doing, but I know
• 1:06:30
  who I'm following at least. So yeah, we got all sports for one
• 1:06:32
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• 1:06:35
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  like Discord only package. Hey, our Discord's great, but it's uh yeah,
• 1:06:48
  there's no Discord only get the contents, I mean, just alone.
• 1:06:51
  I think it's worth our price we pay with the content discord everything, it's
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  worth it just for the discord. But MMA, golf and NHL NFL so
• 1:07:01
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• 1:07:20
  A lot of fun things ahead though, Just a great time over here
• 1:07:24
  at chipinnation dot com. One of the best times of the year in terms
• 1:07:28
  of making some money. Appreciate it. Easy bets, Maddie Ice, everyone
• 1:07:30
  out there, good luck this weekend. Win something big, get some shiping
• 1:07:34
  nation logos to the top for Big Marley. I'm titled town, have a
• 1:07:39
  good one, Stay safe, be blessed, and still has and still mother
• 1:08:12
  anys and then still anst and man still mother with han puns and mons still