Latest / Winning Cures Everything | College Football / Public Bets Overs, Sharp Money Unders, Week 5 Steam

Transcript

Public Bets Overs, Sharp Money Unders, Week 5 Steam · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Public is betting overs. The money is betting unders. Boston
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: College and SMU, we got 97% of the money on
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: the under on only 25% of the tickets. Middleton C
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: in Kansas has got the exact same split. And over
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: in the Sun Belt, James Madison opened 13.5 against Marshall.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: It is 19.5 now. That is six points of steam.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I feel like nobody's really talking about it, but we're
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: going to.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Can you believe it? It's football. I've been watching it
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: for 40 years.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Are you kidding me?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: You're listening to Winning Cures Everything. Game day, baby.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Wake up or get out.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Here's your host. A confident young man.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: A superb athlete.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Gary Segers. Welcome in. Winning Cures Everything. It is a
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: college football podcast.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Segers, at GaryWCE on all the
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: different socials.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: If you haven't.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Subscribed yet, go ahead and do that. This is the
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Friday Pod.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: I'm your host, Gary. This is the undercard.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: It's everything that ain't in the 10 best, ain't in
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: the next 15, and usually is not in Three Dog
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Thursday as well. We got line moves. We got where
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: the money is against where the tickets are. We got
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: the undercard breakdowns, Friday night games, Saturday midnight, a trend buffet,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to give you a watch guide with
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: basically every window so you know where to park it
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: on the couch. Let's go on and jump in. Let's
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: start with the board. These are DraftKings numbers. They're open
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: to current. Biggest move on the undercard is James Madison.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Opened minus 13.5 against Marshall. Now it's minus 19.5. That's
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: six points. Right through 14. Right through 17. Behind that,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Georgia State opened a 1.5 point dog to Old Dominion.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Now it's Georgia State minus 2.5. That is a favorite flip.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: You guys already know. If you follow me on BuyMeACoffee.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: what's going on there. UMass went from 2.5 to 6
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: against Eastern Michigan. Toledo went from 17.5 to 20.5 at
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Ball State. Texas State went from 4.5 to 7.5 at
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: San Diego State. And we'll talk some about that in
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: the mumps. And Georgia Southern flipped from a 1.5 point
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: dog to a 1.5 point favorite at Coastal. As far
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: as other moves, Moves that went toward the dog. Wyoming,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: 21 down to 17.5 against North Dakota State. Buffalo, 16.5
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: down to 14 against Western Michigan. And San Jose State, 5.5
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: down to 3 at Hawaii.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Now, the totals, I.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Feel like this is the story of the weekend. Bowling
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Green at Miami of Ohio opened 50.5. It's now 43.5.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's seven points of movement. Western Michigan, Buffalo,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: it's down 5.5. UTEP New Mexico down 5. Temple USF
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: went down 4. Of the 11 undercard totals that moved
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: 3 points or more, 8 of them went down. The
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: only ones that are climbing are UTSA Rice. That went
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: up 4. I mean, that tracks because I don't think
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Rice can stop UTSA. Indiana Rutgers went up 3. And
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Army and Louisiana Tech went up 3. So, let's talk
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: some splits. I went through every page of the DraftKings
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: betting splits. just to get it from one specific book.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I'm only going to talk about the games where the
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: money and the tickets disagree, because 100% and 100% on
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: a MAAC game is... I mean, that's about three bets.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: That's not a signal, that's a group chat, right? So,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: let's start with Boston College at SMU. The under has
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: 97% of the money on 25% of the bets. BC
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: plus 21 has 79% of the money on a third
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: of the tickets. When you see stuff like that, it's...
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Very interesting. Middle Tennessee at Kansas. Same shape, right? Under
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: has 97% of the money, 25%.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: Of the bets.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Temple plus 6.5 at South Florida. 81% of the money
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: on Temple on just 36% of the tickets. I typically
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: don't like to be on this side of it. But,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: you know, it is what it is. Navy plus 3.5
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: against Air Force. 66% of the money on 40% of
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: the bets.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: And Arkansas.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: And Texas A & M, total bets are split 50-50.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: The money is 100% on the under.
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: Found that interesting. Found that interesting.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: On the big games, you've already heard about the under
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: monies everywhere, right? Ohio State, Iowa, under 96% of the
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: money on 9% of the bets. Auburn, Tennessee, 94 on 13. Washington, USC,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: 83 on 5%. So keep this in the back of
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: your mind this weekend. The public has bet the over.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: The money has bet the under. I'm intrigued. I am very,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: very intrigued. Let's go to.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Well, before we do that, before we get into the games,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: if you're enjoying the show, and I hope you are,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: do me a favor. Hit the subscribe button. Whether you're
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: listening on Apple or Spotify or whatever, but leave a
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: nice five-star review if you would so kindly. If you're
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: on the podcast side... Leave a review. I'm going through
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: my YouTube notes.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Leave five stars. I would appreciate that. Tell me what
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: you like. Tell me what you don't.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Like, that's the easiest way, the cheapest way to help
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: this thing grow. It takes about 20 seconds or so.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: We'll keep the gambling insights and the entertainment coming. You know,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: you just help us spread this thing. That's all we
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: got to do. All right, let's get to the games.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Let's go with a Friday game we have not discussed
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: just yet, and that's Liberty at Delaware. It is 6 p.m.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Central Time on CBS Sports Network. Liberty opened minus 7.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: It is 6.5 now.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Total is 50.5.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: It hadn't budged. This is Conference USA. This league is
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: wide open. Next week, by the way, starts Tuesday night football.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Tuesday and Wednesday night football. And I am stoked about it.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw State is struggling. Western Kentucky has been awful. The
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: winner between Delaware and Liberty really takes a step forward here.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a pretty important game What's weird,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Liberty got 87% of the spread money and 73% of
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: the bets, and the line moved towards Delaware. And, you know,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: it's reverse line movement. The money's on one side, number
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: moves the other way. On the money line, Delaware pulls two, wait. Yeah,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Delaware plus 230. That is pulling 37% of the money
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: on 8% of the tickets. So there's people taking a
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: big swing on this home dog. But there is an
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: asterisk with it, right? The Delaware quarterback, Nick Minucucci, I
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: hope I said that right, he hurt his knee against Virginia.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: He was listed questionable earlier this week. There's a couple
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: of spots that think that the passing game is going
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: to struggle with or without him. 20% on third down
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: against Vandy, 29% at Virginia, but those are not Liberty's defense, right?
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: But Delaware's pass rush leads Conference USA at three and
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: a half sacks a game. The run defense held Virginia
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: to 2.9 yards a carry. Now, Liberty is coming in
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: off a big win at Coastal 34-17 last week. Delaware
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: beat that same Coastal team 22-14. Liberty won the meeting
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: last year 59-30, but these are completely different teams now.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I'm interested in this, right? Like, reverse line movement, a
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: projection inside the number, a home dog with You know,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: pretty nasty pass rush.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: I got kind of lean Delaware here. Just keep an
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: eye on the quarterback.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Right? I don't know that there's going to be a
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: huge difference. I'm just Delaware at home. This is an
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: experienced roster. I'm curious about it. Next one up, we
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: got to talk a service academy game. Cannot believe we
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: didn't put this on the next 15. Navy at Air Force.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: This one is 11 a.m. Central, CBS. It's in Falcon Stadium.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: No neutral site, nothing like that. But it's the first
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: leg of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. Navy has won the last two.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Last year, Navy edged Air Force 34-31. Air Force opened
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: minus 1.5. That's now up to 3.5. It went right
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: through that key number to 3.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Total opened 49.5.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: It's now 46.5. It got down to 45.5 at one point,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: and people started taking the over. I mean, if you
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: look at the money, 60% of the bets are on
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Air Force. 66% of the money is on Navy plus
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: three and a half. The total, like 100% of the
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: handle is on the under. I find that interesting. It
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: also lets you know that betting splits are not always
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: completely accurate. There's a lot of different models that have different.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: on this.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: I've seen some that have this more of a pick-em game.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I've seen some that have Air Force by a touchdown.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: The bigger bets, the computer, those are on Navy. Both
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: teams run the triple option. That means fewer possessions and
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: a running clock. It's why this totals in the mid-40s.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: It kicks at 10 o'clock in the morning mountain, which
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: is early for a Navy team that had to fly
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: halfway across the country. You're getting the hook on three.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: The money's on the dog. And in a short possession game,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: a field goal and a hook matter a lot. I
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: would tend to lean Navy here. I don't feel great
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: about it because I know that Air Force can open
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: this thing up so I'm curious I'm curious what they're
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: saying or what ends up happening this is going to
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: be a lot of fun to open up Saturday with
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: but you're going to have to have it on a
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: side screen because I know you want to watch Keelan
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: and Camario So let's talk Boston College and SMU. This
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: one's 11 a.m. Central Time on the CW in Dallas.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: The loudest split on the board here. SMU opened minus 21.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: Now it's 21.5. The total opened 56.5. It's now 55.5.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Two-thirds of the bets are on SMU. 79% of the
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: money is on Boston College plus 21. And as far
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: as the total, three out of four tickets on the
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: over are 97% of the money is on the under.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's about as lopsided as a split gets, right? I'm...
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: I don't think that I would want to fight 97%
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: of the money. Like, the under 55 and a half
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: does seem to make sense. BC has a pretty decent defense.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: And SMU hasn't exactly shown that they are capable of, like,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: blowing out anybody.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: Boston College.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: has hung in with a lot of teams that I
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: didn't expect them to. So I'm, again, interesting spot. I
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: don't know that I would fight against 97% of the money, but, man, boy,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: that'd be a huge sportsbook win, wouldn't it? Syracuse and UConn,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: 11 a.m. Central on CBS Sports Network. Syracuse opened minus 6.5.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: That's now 7. The total dropped from 53.5 to 50.5.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Syracuse is 1-2, and I.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Mean, good gracious.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I'm looking through this. The bets are split 50-50 on
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: the spread. 93% of the money is on Syracuse. You
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: flip it to the money line, though, UConn plus 215,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: it's got 63% of the money on 21% of the bets.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: A lot of people liking UConn to win this thing outright.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: So the big spread bettors like the Cuse and the
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: big money line bettors like the dog. I don't think
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I would want to lay a touchdown with Syracuse right now.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Not on the road.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: But the way that everything went last year, Fran Brown
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: made his boys run sprints after the UConn game. I mean,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: I'm a pass on this one. Syracuse should win it.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: They should be way better. But, man, it seems like
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Steve Angeli has kind of dropped some things. I'm curious
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: about this backup quarterback, what they're going to end up
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: looking like. It's the kid that, it's Odom that was
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: the starting quarterback at Kennesaw last year. So I'm curious
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: which direction they go if they keep running with Angeli
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: because he just, he don't look the same that he
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: did when he started off last season. Stanford at Wake.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Another 11 a.m.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: Game.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Wake open 12 and a half. It's now 13.5. Wake
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: has 76% of the spread money. On the money line,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Stanford plus 400 has 75% of the money on 3%
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: of the bets. That's pretty crazy. That's an early game.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: Home favorite. Steady team.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: It's on the ACC network. I'm so curious about this
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest team. Like, does Jake Dickert let them have
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: an emotional letdown? Like, I doubt it, but who knows, right?
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a big-time spot for them. They
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: lost to Miami. They come back. They beat Louisville on
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the road. Now they've got to come back home. Stanford,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: this is a really early.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: Game for them.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a 9 a.m. body clock game
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: for them. So I would stay away from it, personally.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what to expect out of this.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Marshall at James Madison. This one, 2.45 p.m. Central Time
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: on ESPNU. It's the biggest line move on this entire undercard.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: James Madison opened minus 13.5. It's minus 19.5 now. I mean,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: that's such a huge move. The second biggest one from
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: an opener behind Miami and Clemson. When a number goes
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: through 14 and 17 like that, either the opener was
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: wrong or the market knows something that we don't. Like,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: I could not find a public reason for this. I
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: would check the injury bug, you know, injury report before
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: you bet it. Like, the splits are all JMU, spread
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: and over. But, I would imagine it's thin volume, so
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to read too much into the percentages. Like,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: James Madison is 4-0. They are just murdering everybody. I'd,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: The value, I think, kind of got squeezed out of
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: this if you were going to bet James Madison. Like,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't chase the steam here. I mean, if anything,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: if I had to make a selection, if you're in
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: a pick-em or something like that, I would almost go
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: with Marshall at this number because I still trust that offense.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: I think the defense is okay. I think the bad
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: showing against Gardner-Webb was just, that's an absolute look-ahead spot.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: They don't care about that one. The Penn State game,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: they didn't care about that one. That's a bye game.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: You start playing second string, third string really early there.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: This is where you get into conference play. So I
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: think that this Marshall team is better than they've shown.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: But who knows?
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, James Madison does look really, really good. They
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: look fantastic. Arkansas and Texas A & M. This one,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: 6 p.m. Central Time. This is a night game on ESPN2.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: Kyle Field. Not bad.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: It's weird that this would be called an undercard game,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: but Arkansas has been so bad. A & M opened
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: minus 14.5. Yes, this A & M team that just
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: got destroyed by LSU 35-6, they are now over a
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: two-touchdown favorite over Arkansas. Total went from 51.5 down to 50.5.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: A & M' s got 89% of the spread money, but
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: the bets are split right down the middle. It's 100%
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: of the money on the under. On the money line,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: Arkansas plus 450 Or plus 455. It has 64% of
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: the money on 6% of the bets. So, there's some
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: people that are betting the upset here. I don't know
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: what they could possibly see on this. You know, models
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: like the under. The money likes the under. The numbers
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: already moved a point.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Like, I'm... I don't know. I don't know. Marcel Reed....
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: He threw 12 interceptions last year. A & M rebuilt
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: their offensive line through the portal. They lost four starters.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: When the model and the money and the market all
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: point the same way, I would lean the under 50.5
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: because I don't trust Marcel Reed in that offense to
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: be able to get anything going, even against Arkansas. I
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: really don't expect Arkansas to be able to get anything going.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: That place looks like a dumpster fire right now.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: Good gracious.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: So that one's 6 p.m. Central time. God's time zone
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: on ESPN2. Utah State and Boise State. 6.30 p.m. Central
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: on CBS Sports Network. This one on the blue turf.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Boise minus 20.5. It hadn't moved.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Total's up 2. 49.5 to 51.5.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: 90% of the total money is on the over. And that's,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: you know, last year these two played a 25-24 game.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: It's 20.5 because Utah State just got destroyed by Utah.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: And they were scoring about 10 points a game through
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: the first three. So it's not like their offense has
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: gotten anything going.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: But people like.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: The over for some reason.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's just wild.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Absolutely wild. And maybe they're expecting Boise to be able
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: to run it up. You know, I can't trust Utah
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: State to score, so why would I bet them even
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: at plus 20 and a half? Like, that's the crazy thing.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Temple and USF, USF minus 6.5 now. God, I mean,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: that thing was at 4.5 or 4, moved up to 6.5.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Total dropped four points, 52.5 to 48.5 from what I
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: can tell. 64% of the bets are on USF, but
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: only 19% of the money. Some of my money's on
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: that USF.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: That's just a guess.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: Temple Plus 6.5 has 81% of the handle on about
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: a third of the tickets. I mean, that's pretty wild.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: When the money is that far from the tickets, like,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: I get very squeamish. I get curious.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Indiana at Rutgers.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: 7 p.m. Central, Big Ten Network. You know, finally, Indiana
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: goes on the road. I mean, it's October now, so
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: finally they're not playing a game in Bloomington.
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: But it's Rutgers.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: So just kind of wild. Indiana opened minus 23.5.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Totals up three. 53.5 to 56.5.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: And it's one of the only one of these games
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about that's actually going up. 68% of the
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: spread money is on Indiana. And on the money line,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Rutgers plus 1,200 has half of the money on 8%
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: of the bets. Feels like somebody's buying lottery tickets out there.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Although I will say that Indiana has not exactly looked good. So,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: you know, the Rutgers, I mean, like Rutgers got destroyed
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: by UMass.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: Just destroyed.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: I do not anticipate Rutgers winning this ballgame. I think
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: this is more of a spread problem, not a result problem.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: I think Indiana wins. The question is whether you're going
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: to lay 24 and a half, like in your first
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: road trip of the season. So I'm going to pass
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: on the side on this one. But this is, you know,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: another interesting data point before Indiana plays, you know, a
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: real team. That's not to say Northwestern wasn't. I think
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: Northwestern is actually pretty good. But the way that that
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: schedule shaped up, I mean, it set them up perfectly
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: to get back to October. Fresno State and Washington State,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: interesting one, 8.30 p.m. Central Time on USA Network. Wazoo
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: minus 1.5, it's the closest line that I'm talking about today.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Washington State is 1-3, but it makes sense if you
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: look at the schedule. On the spread, Fresno plus 1.5
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: has all the money, 100%, like on two-thirds of the bets. So,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: on the money line, Washington State has 70% of the
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: money on 25% of the bets. So, you've got money
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: on both teams, depending on which market you look at. Like,
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: this is a Late game, West Coast coin flip.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: Like, I'm going to watch it. I'm not going to
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: bet it.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: Because I don't know if I can trust this Fresno
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: State offense. Like, I just, we'll see. And Washington State,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: you know, you've only seen them play against really good
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: teams or better teams. So I'm not sure what to
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: do with that. Let's rapid fire some of these from,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: you know, open to now. Memphis at Charlotte, who is
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: over right now, 21.5 down to 20.5.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: Which makes sense.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: My model's got it like 18.5 to 19, somewhere around there.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Toledo at Ball State, 17.5 up to 20.5. Western Michigan
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: at Buffalo, 16.5 down to 14. All the spread money's
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: on Buffalo. Buffalo is awful. I'm curious about that one.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: New Mexico over UTEP, 21 up to 22.5. North Dakota
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: State over Wyoming, that one went from 21 down to 17.5.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: Georgia State over Old Dominion. We talked about this one.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: That was a favorite flip. Georgia Southern at Coastal flipped
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: to minus 1.5. South Alabama over winless Louisiana Monroe, ULM.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: That's 14. Louisiana over Arkansas State. That's 4, up to 6.5.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Texas State and San Diego State, 4.5, up to 7.5.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: That one's interesting. I got that thing at 4.5. Bet
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: it in favor of Texas State. And my reasoning there
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: had nothing to do with the fact that... So first off,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: San Diego State looks like they're going to be down
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: to their third string running back. I don't trust Denigal
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: to be able to throw the football at all, even
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: on this Texas State defense. Texas State's offense has been
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: absolutely freaking rolling lately. So that is something to pay
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: attention to. And then, of course, the big news that
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: came out yesterday... San Diego State has 14 players that
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: have the mumps. They have not announced which 14 players
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: it is. I suppose we will see on Saturday. Head
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: coach Sean Davis said that, yeah, they can't talk about
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: it because it's a HIPAA and a FERPA violation, but
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: at some point we've got to know who's playing the
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: game and who's not. Or if we're still playing the game,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: depending on how many people have actually caught it. Like,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: I don't even know that Texas State would want to
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: play it. But, I mean, what happened to the MMR vaccine? Yeah,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: we're not going to get into that.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: We're not doing that. All right.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: Army and Louisiana Tech, 3.5 down to 1.5. Hawaii, San
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Jose State, 5.5 down to 3. UMass in eastern Michigan. 2.5
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: up to 6. I think people are finally catching on
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: that UMass is actually a pretty good football team this year.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Ohio at Kent State.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: That was 5.5.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: It's down to 3.5. A lot of people thinking that
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: Kent State is going to be pretty good. I mean,
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: that quarterback's awesome. DeShields, I believe, is the name of
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: the guy. Didn't do anything against their non-conference late. But
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of these smaller G6 teams that... understand, okay,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: we're not going to make the playoff because we've got
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: to play Georgia and we've got to play whoever.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: Penn State. Whatever it is.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: But we can rest up and we can still win
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: our conference and that matters. I wonder if that's the
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: thinking with some of these. Miami of Ohio is down
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: a quarterback so they're down to 13.5 as a favorite
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: over a winless Bowling Green.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: That total went way down.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: 15.5 down to 43.5. The to Kansas over middle Tennessee,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: 21 and a half down to 19 and a half.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: And that tracks because like my model has middle Tennessee
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: covering that game.
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: Very interesting. Um, let's do, let's do a plug real quick.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: If you want to support the show besides subscribing, you
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: can go to buymeacoffee.com slash winning cures. Uh, that helps
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: the research keep going, keeps the show free, keeps the
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: content coming every week. And you know, you, you, be
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: a member over there. By the way, we've had several
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: people that have become supporters over there. All that is
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: is basically just tipping the show, which I do appreciate,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: but it doesn't get you all the bonus content. So
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: if you're going to give me five bucks, just hit
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: the join button, like be a member. And then you
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: get all the posts, you get my official plays, you
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: get all the other things. So go ahead and do that.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: It's buymeacoffee.com slash winning cures. Um, And I'm going to
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: tell you to hit the subscribe button, make sure and
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: leave a nice podcast review, all the good stuff over
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: here as well, even if you don't want to jump
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: in over there.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: I get it.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: I totally do. All right, let's hit the trend buffet.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Let's do this thing. This is the big one, right?
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Public bets overs, money bets unders.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: That's the trend.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: On the undercard, we've already talked about Boston College SMU.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee, Kansas is the same thing. Wyoming, North Dakota State,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: 100% of the money on 33% of the bets. Arkansas
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: A & M, 100% of the money on the under
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: on 50% of the bets. Navy Air Force, 100% on 58%.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: And the total is more degrees. Eight of 11 big
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: total moves went down this time.
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: Second trend.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Spread games where tickets are on the favorite and the
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: money is on the dog. We got a lot of those.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: BC plus 21%. Temple plus 6.5. Navy plus 3.5. Buffalo
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: plus 14. Fresno plus 1.5. That's five of them. Third,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: we've got our steam list. James Madison, six points. Georgia State,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: a four-point flip. UMass, three and a half. Toledo, three points.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Texas State, four points.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: No, three points. Three points, sorry.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern, that one flipped. Like, the ones that are
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: moving toward the dog, Wyoming, Buffalo, and San Jose State. Um....
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: Let's look at some of these lottery tickets. And this
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: is just a fun one to kind of close this out, right?
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: The big money, money line dogs. Charlotte plus 850 with
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: a 97% of the money line money. Middle Tennessee plus 800,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: 94% of the money. UTEP plus 1100, 83%.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: Rutgers plus 1200, half of the money on 8% of
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: the bets.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: On a dog that big, I guess one guy with
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion and paycheck can swing those numbers. So
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: I feel like that's entertainment, not a signal. Whoever it is,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: I'm rooting for them. I know that much. I know
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: that much. All right, let's do our watch guide right quick. Friday,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: 6 p.m. Central, Liberty and Delaware on CBS Sports Network.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: That's right alongside Pitt at Virginia Tech. 8 o'clock, Northwestern
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: and Penn State on Fox. It's the opening of the
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: new Ryan Field in Evanston. So go ahead and check
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: that out. Saturday, noon window, Navy at Air Force on CBS.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Also at noon, you've got Boston College at SMU on
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the CW. Stanford at Wake on ACC Network. I don't
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: know of any others that matter there.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: Saturday, 3.30 window.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: This is intriguing. The 330 window has got some interesting stuff.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: That 11 a.m. slide is going to be just completely
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: hammered by Alabama and Mississippi State. Ohio State, Iowa is
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: going to be awesome. Miami-Clemson, Like, that's where we're at.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I can't do this watch guide right now. It's going
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: to be a weird week. This is a fun week.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: Next week is going to be absolutely friggin' loaded. Absolutely loaded. Alright.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: I've taken enough of your time. You guys have been fantastic.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: This has been about 30 minutes.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: And.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: I enjoy doing these extra audio pods. I mean, these
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: things are fun. These are pretty awesome. Remember for this week,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: public bets the over, money bets the under. So let's
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on how those things end up. Make
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: sure to shop your lines because the books move. You
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: can always try and find a better line somewhere else.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Use one of these betting apps. write BetStamp or Pickett
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: or whatever that you can find. Action Network does them
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: if you're looking on the web. Look for the best
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: line with the best odds.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: That's what you're doing. All right.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: We're going to get out of here. Thank you for listening.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Thank you for subscribing. Thank you for supporting the show.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: It's been a very long week. Hopefully you all caught
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: me on VSYN with Dustin on Wednesday night. Gave out
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: a couple of plays that I really like.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: We'll see what happens. All right. Take care of yourself.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: Take care of each other.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: God bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: cash this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Subscribe, leave a review or comment.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Follow at GaryWCE on X and check out the web store.