Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | February 14, 2024 | UFC 298 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA Show | February 14, 2024 | UFC 298 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  The fall system's going clear for living. What's going on, everybody, Ben
• 0:39
  Big Marley, Hebrew, Cheetah, Shan Suliving cooling, the two hundred and
• 0:43
  fifty k man, what's going on? Everybody? Appreciate everyone hanging out with
• 0:47
  Mark's in here as well. We're doing this on Wednesday, just like last
• 0:50
  week. We will be back to regular UFC schedule though starting next week again
• 0:55
  on Fridays at what is it now, eleven one pm Eastern? Yeah,
• 1:00
  it's one pm Eastern. Yeah, it's been what two weeks now? Waste
• 1:03
  management all the ship at Crow and Phoenix yesterday. This weekend I'll be heading
• 1:07
  down by ma Man Hebrew Cheedah in La heading to the fights at Anaheim UFC
• 1:11
  two ninety eight. So get We're getting this one out a little early for
• 1:15
  you. Twelve fights live crowd, I mean, man both to part you.
• 1:19
  We go down on some of these fights absolutely banger of a card.
• 1:23
  Ton of the twelve are expected to finish. One of those two that aren't
• 1:26
  is my Moron fight, so we know that scores well in DFS. I'm
• 1:30
  expecting some pretty big score, some fun fights, a lot of violence.
• 1:34
  I'm pretty pumped. How are you doing, my man. Yeah, great
• 1:37
  card. I really can't wait for this one. I think it's just gonna
• 1:40
  be fun to watch. I think it's gonna be a crazy DraftKings card as
• 1:42
  well, probably lots of high scores. But yeah, it's just a solid
• 1:47
  pay per view worth the money. Jealous that you and Rio are getting to
• 1:51
  go out there. Wish I could be out there with you guys again.
• 1:53
  But I feel like I'm getting sick already from flying back. I have like
• 1:56
  a I'm batting one hundred percent. I think, you know, flying back
• 1:59
  west to east, get sick on the next day, so hopefully it'll hold
• 2:02
  it up throughout the show. But I'm excited to talk this one out with
• 2:06
  you. I'm still kind of early in the week, but I've already finished
• 2:09
  my first run on everything. I got everything up on the site too,
• 2:13
  just finished ownership, so we could talk about it. But I might just
• 2:15
  adjust things as we go along. You might be able to change my mind
• 2:19
  on a few things here and there. But looking forward to it. Yeah,
• 2:22
  I've got a lot of my research on as well. Man. Last
• 2:24
  week's card fourteen fights, the name value wasn't as great. It was a
• 2:29
  lot harder for me there this week. I mean, the fade fights are
• 2:32
  pretty easy for me. The underway tags are pretty easy for me. I'm
• 2:36
  just gonna have to mix and match again. Twelve fights not fourteen, so
• 2:39
  got to get a little more contrarion. Maybe use a little more money if
• 2:43
  you're trying to sol those ship or just probably don't play the main event.
• 2:46
  Bulka to foria. That's another easy way to get different right there. Big
• 2:50
  Marley's laughing, not something I think he'll be doing. However, we do
• 2:53
  know how to get different on this card, and you do already have ownership.
• 2:57
  I'll have most of my stuff done today, but when we go fight
• 3:00
  by fight, I will mention, well, we have an ownership right now.
• 3:02
  Again, only Wednesday, a lot will change. Everything will be up
• 3:07
  by Friday for sure, updates and yellow et cetera. I'll be at the
• 3:10
  fight Saturday, so I'll still be on my phone checking Discord for questions.
• 3:15
  Big Marley will be in there as well. Got projections, fight rankings,
• 3:19
  slave playing, core reports, everything you need in MMA to be successful.
• 3:23
  And shout out Big Marley sheets he tracks, I mean shout out cheats too.
• 3:27
  He's been on fire in the NBA Streets tracks ownership throughout the whole industry.
• 3:31
  We have been ever since we started ship it, and Sheets has been
• 3:36
  tracking us. We've been number one in the industry and MMA ownership and I
• 3:39
  take zero credit for that. That is all Big Marley over there. So
• 3:44
  definitely an ownership game. MMA is very important. Big Marley has done the
• 3:47
  best thus far. So good stuff right there gives in here as well.
• 3:51
  Michael Peterson in here as well. What did what did Rio say? Head
• 3:57
  to work on his NBA stuff? Pop in Yeah, big boy slag x
• 4:00
  out of this MMA show, Rio, get back to NBA. We'll be
• 4:03
  talking a couple hours Monster Slate right there. Last thing to note before we
• 4:08
  go fight by fights. Why we're doing the show even a hour earlier than
• 4:11
  last week. Tambo, Hoop and Dgen going live in an hour fifty five
• 4:15
  minutes now talking about the merger. If anyone has any questions, just lighting
• 4:19
  the people, everything we knew we saw at launched it last week. Anything
• 4:24
  you need to know. NASCAR is going to be here. Peach talk about
• 4:27
  good projections and ownership man Djen and Golf absolutely crushes that as well. So
• 4:32
  fifty five minutes go right to this MMA show, right to the merger Djen
• 4:36
  Hoop Tambo and go right to the NBA show later with Hoop with Rio and
• 4:41
  I talking to Big Boy Slates. So happy Valentine's Day for anyone out there
• 4:46
  as well. Appreciate the like button, Big Marley, anything you want to
• 4:48
  talk about before we go fight by flight. Now, let's get it.
• 4:51
  I'm pumped. First fight of the night Woman's division and for only one of
• 4:58
  two fights expect to go to the distance. It's morobsa who don't fight.
• 5:00
  And then this fight to kick off the night, Miranda Maverick Andrea Lee eighty
• 5:04
  nine hundred is Maverick seventy three hundred at Drea Lee. Looking at the odds
• 5:10
  in this one, Maverick minus one eighty five Lee plus one sixty the most
• 5:15
  likely fight to go the distance on the card at plus two to twenty five.
• 5:17
  Maverick solid inside the plus two sixty five Lee plus eight hundred is terms
• 5:25
  of our ownership in this one be a Maverick at fourteen percent, Lee at
• 5:29
  fourteen percent one of the lower on fights on the card. Take it away
• 5:31
  right away. Yeah, I think this is one of my least favorite fights
• 5:36
  on the card, But I'm also fine with either side. I was really
• 5:41
  going back and forth on this fight picking a winner, though I feel like
• 5:44
  it's really close and we're gonna get a twenty nine to twenty eight either way
• 5:47
  type of thing, and usually I pick the underdog when that happens. But
• 5:51
  I feel like Lee needs to keep this fight standing to have a chance,
• 5:55
  and when she is taken down, she just spends too much time off her
• 5:59
  back, and that's Maverick's best path to victory. I do give Lee the
• 6:02
  striking edge, but I give Maverick the wrestling and grappling edge in this one,
• 6:06
  and usually I like to side with the grappler over the striker when I'm
• 6:10
  thinking about minutes in a fight, So I kind of like Maverick to be
• 6:14
  the one winning two rounds in this one, Lee taking another one if Maverick
• 6:17
  can't land those takedowns. But if that's the case, I just don't think
• 6:20
  that we're gonna get a high enough score in this fight, and my preferred
• 6:24
  play is to just fade it. However, if Maverick is gonna win all
• 6:28
  three rounds with her wrestling, then she could put up a good score,
• 6:30
  and she usually does score over one hundred points when she wins, she also
• 6:34
  won't be too owned, so I think she's in play for those reasons.
• 6:39
  And then on the other side, if she can't land those takedowns, I
• 6:43
  think Lee could win all three rounds on the feet, and she probably puts
• 6:46
  up more than ten x her seventy three hundred dollars score as well, so
• 6:49
  she's a solid paydown if you're looking for a live underdog to win as I
• 6:55
  just don't think she's getting a hundred points in this fight. I don't think
• 6:57
  she even has that in her ceiling really, so it's more a play to
• 7:01
  win. I don't like a whole lot of underdogs on this card, so
• 7:03
  again, she's in play for that reason. I don't even have a preferred
• 7:06
  to play in this one. Like if I was making one lineup and you
• 7:09
  forced me to use this fight, I'd probably rather save the money and throw
• 7:13
  in Lee because there are a lot of favorites I just want to squeeze in
• 7:16
  on this card, But Maverick will be one of the lowest own favorites on
• 7:19
  the car. You can get really different there, so you can really talk
• 7:23
  to me in anything. I'm kind of hoping you have a take in this
• 7:25
  one, but my pick to win is Maverick twenty nine. Yeah, so
• 7:29
  this was one of my trying to have four fades. I was just right
• 7:31
  away to start the night. I put this as a full fight fade.
• 7:34
  But I'm debating and I'm still debating Jeff not Jeff neil I and Gary,
• 7:41
  Robert Whittaker and Miranda Maverick. I'm gonna have two of themen I don't like
• 7:45
  really any of the three, especially relatively speaking in the upper tier. One
• 7:48
  of them is gonna get the fade treatment. The other two I'm gonna keep
• 7:51
  in my pool and go under waight. I mean the other two have better
• 7:55
  inside the distance props slightly, They're all relatively similar. Maverick has wrestling upside
• 8:01
  where Gary doesn't. I think Whittaker does a little bit. So I think
• 8:03
  it's between Gary and Maverick. I'm debating the fade. The problem is,
• 8:07
  like you're saying, is a I'm picking Andrew Leo win this fight. I
• 8:11
  think the odds are too wide on the feet. I give lead the advantage
• 8:13
  Maverick on the mat, and then it comes to like who would I pick
• 8:18
  if I had to pick one? I think it is Maverick, even though
• 8:20
  with a sixteen hundred dollars difference. Once she wins and her five UFC wins
• 8:24
  one O four one, nineteen one ten, somehow I'm missing the other two
• 8:31
  or last or No, She's three and one in her last four and those
• 8:33
  wins one oh four one, nineteen and one ten, and Lee has been
• 8:37
  controlled off her back. Poor takedown defense fifty four percent. I don't love
• 8:41
  this fight again. I'm gonna fade in twenty and below. I think if
• 8:45
  I do change, it'll be Maverick underweight and I'll fade one at Gary and
• 8:48
  Whittaker. But man, I just think if Lee wins, she probably scores
• 8:52
  seventy to eighty, and if Maverick wins, probably somewhere in the seventy five
• 8:56
  eighty five, maybe ninety five range. But I do think Lee is a
• 9:00
  solid fighter. If you look at who's like morand the Mavericks been beaten up,
• 9:03
  I mean Ketchaware has got nothing up her back. I think it was
• 9:07
  Maso who's out of the UFC. So yeah, at the end of the
• 9:09
  day, maybe Maverick gets a takedown or something. Lee can work her way
• 9:13
  back up despite goes fifteen minutes. Only an other fight not supposed to go
• 9:18
  fifteen minutes is uh, it's a hudo that's expected to go all fifteen or
• 9:22
  so Hudo Morob and Morob. We know averages whatever Takedown six or something could
• 9:28
  put up one fifty and fifteen minutes. So yeah, anything else to add.
• 9:31
  I mean, I guess, between Whittaker Ian Gary Maverick, which one
• 9:35
  do you have the least interest in? Which one would you think? Least
• 9:39
  interest for me is gonna be Whittaker in that one when we get there.
• 9:43
  Yeah, we'll get there. So that's what I'm debating right there. The
• 9:46
  least least appealing fight on the card for me, though, and the props
• 9:50
  to agree to kick it off in the woman's division, keep it rolling.
• 9:54
  This should be a fun fight. Open Elliott that would Burn ninety three hundred
• 9:56
  is Elliott sixty nine hundred is val Woodburn. Looking at the odds in this
• 10:01
  one, Elliott one of the biggest favorites on the card at minus three ten
• 10:05
  Woodburn plus two sixty on the way back despights minus two hundred to finish.
• 10:11
  Elliott minus won ten inside the distance val Woodburn plus three sixty. I mean
• 10:18
  I guess take it away and start with this Elliott guy. I mean minus
• 10:20
  three ten feels very very wide. I think he's gonna come out, maybe
• 10:26
  put on the wrestling shoes a bit. I guess start with that Bell Woodburn,
• 10:30
  grown ass man, really strong. Only see him in the UFC for
• 10:33
  a little bit before he got knocked out by bow Nickel, But line feels
• 10:37
  a little wide. A good fights at target is how I see it.
• 10:39
  Yeah, this is a tough one. So Elliot's making his UFC debut in
• 10:45
  Woodburn. He made his UFC debut. He's just thrown to the wolves against
• 10:48
  bow Nickel. But now he's dropping to one hundred and seventy pounds for the
• 10:52
  first time. And this guy's just a tank. But other than him being
• 10:58
  super strong and powerful, like he doesn't have he's got nothing else. Like,
• 11:03
  he's not good at fighting. He could just land a big shot.
• 11:07
  He can even power house uh some wrestling attempts and kind of hang out in
• 11:11
  top control and land some big bombs there as well. But skill wise,
• 11:16
  Elliot's better everywhere. And and the thing with Ellie is he's not really good
• 11:20
  anywhere. He's just okay everywhere, it seems He's gonna be the the higher
• 11:24
  paced fighter in this one. He's gonna have the better cardio, he's the
• 11:26
  more skilled striker, he's the more skilled wrestler. I just think if he
• 11:31
  doesn't eat a big shot, he's gonna he's gonna win this fight. But
• 11:35
  I don't know how he's gonna win the fight. I don't know if he
• 11:37
  wants to go out there and try and get a knockout, which I think
• 11:41
  would probably come later in the fight, once he starts to wear down Woodburn,
• 11:43
  his word, Woodburn, just he'll be huffing and puffing in the second
• 11:48
  round, especially at one seven. At one seventy, I would imagine it's
• 11:50
  gonna be even worse cutting all that weight. But I don't know. We'll
• 11:52
  see what he looks like at one seventy. But I also think Ellie could
• 11:56
  go out there and land takedowns on each round, and then the longer this
• 12:00
  fight goes, the more he could just really start piling up points on the
• 12:03
  ground against a gastout Woodburn and then find to finish along the way as well.
• 12:07
  So I do think that Elliott's a good play and I think he's a
• 12:11
  really good pivot away from what I expect to be a chucky Knakamura, But
• 12:16
  I also think that there's guys we could pay less for who could outscore Elliott,
• 12:20
  just because I'm not impressed with his overall skill seite. He's just pretty
• 12:24
  good. The only thing is that he's fighting a guy who's not not good,
• 12:28
  so I like that about him. And then on the other side,
• 12:31
  Woodburn, if he wins his fight, it's probably gonna be an early knockout
• 12:33
  breaks the slate. So I do want some of him, but I don't
• 12:37
  want to bank on that happen, and so I'll at least match the field,
• 12:41
  maybe go a little bit Overwake because I don't think he'll get too much
• 12:43
  ownership. But my preferred play is going to be Elliott, and I think
• 12:46
  he can win by any method. Yeah, I agree with a lot of
• 12:50
  what you're saying for sure. So the upper tier is interesting. Knakhamer in
• 12:52
  ninety six hundred short notice replacement over minus one thousand, clearly going to be
• 12:58
  the highest priced guy up there. Then you got three hundred dollars, you
• 13:01
  get Elliott, Gary Whittaker, Miranda Maverick, Fluffy or Nandez Barlow, Morob
• 13:07
  Davallis Pheeley. How it goes is Rinya will be probably the highest owned on
• 13:11
  the slate, Oben Elliott will get some. Gary Whittaker, Maverick I think
• 13:15
  are all the lowest owned in that range. Then you get the Hernandez,
• 13:18
  Barlow, morob All gonna get I think a decent bit of ownership. And
• 13:24
  that's how we have it in our ownership. Right now we have Barlow a
• 13:26
  little low owned, still higher than Maverick, Whittaker and Gary. So back
• 13:30
  to bringing that to this fight three hundred dollars, everyone's gonna try and go
• 13:33
  Knakamura and find that three hundred. Elliott's gonna get some because I think most
• 13:39
  agree he's a better play than Gary, Whittaker, Maverick. But you do
• 13:41
  have that mid a K range that's absolutely loaded this week, and with only
• 13:46
  twelve fights, there's some solid dogs. But it's not like we had fourteen
• 13:50
  fights or I feel like the last two weeks dogs have been more appealing.
• 13:54
  So I do think people can't get to Knakamura, they'll maybe go little Elliott.
• 13:58
  Otherwise you're just gonna go on the that ak range, maybe avoid this
• 14:01
  whole nine K range. I'm gonna play it twenty nine percent, we have
• 14:05
  Val Woodburn. So what do you think the wrestling upside is in this one?
• 14:09
  Like I've seen Elliott, he shoots for takedowns Val Woodburn. He's physically
• 14:11
  strong, but if he's on his back and he can't get up or he
• 14:15
  gets tired, I feel like we do have some wrestling upside on DraftKings in
• 14:18
  this one. See I think if Elliott gets a takedown, he probably can
• 14:22
  stay there as long as he wants to and maybe finish the fight. I
• 14:26
  would expect absolutely nothing from Woodburn off his back, But my issue is that
• 14:30
  Woodburn's gonna be the stronger fighter here, So the first round when he's more
• 14:33
  powerful, what happens if he gets on top. I mean, I don't
• 14:35
  think Elliott'll be in trouble like Woodburn would be off his back, but it's
• 14:41
  just gonna be him not scoring if that happens, and it will be taken
• 14:43
  away from his potential ceiling. So I mean, I definitely give Elliott the
• 14:48
  overall edge, but that first round wrestling, I don't know if he'll be
• 14:50
  able to get him down. And I also think that Woodburn's live for a
• 14:54
  takedown or two in that first round. I just don't know that other than
• 14:56
  landing some heavy ground upound, Woodburn's not gonna do a lot with it.
• 15:00
  He's not a good grappler. He's not really good at controlling fights other than
• 15:03
  just being big and hanging out there. So yeah, first round, I'm
• 15:07
  not sure. Second round starts to be Elliott edge pretty decently, and if
• 15:11
  it gets to the third, I feel like Elliott probably wins the entire round
• 15:16
  with wrestling. If he doesn't, yeah, yeah, i'd agree with that.
• 15:18
  So yeah, the last props in this one, we get Elliott minus
• 15:20
  one ten inside the distance, and again almost half the ownership is as knock
• 15:26
  him up there. I think I will be playing Elliott, no doubt about
• 15:28
  that. Woodburn, we have him at nine percent plus three sixty inside the
• 15:33
  distance is pretty good at nine percent as well as a punt all the way
• 15:37
  down there. A few wins should score well. We're on one props in
• 15:39
  this one. Elliott plus three twenty five or Woodburn plus six hundred. Yeah,
• 15:46
  both these guys will be in my pool of the four fades I have.
• 15:48
  It's not this fight. I think Woodburn probably loses. I'm not really
• 15:52
  sure. I like the Elliott side more than I knew the Woodburn side,
• 15:56
  just because I like the pivot from Knaka Mura, and I hope you Wressel
• 16:00
  puts on the wrestling shoes he's expected to finish, I mean minus one ten.
• 16:04
  If he does get that, he scores one to eleven. Nakamura scores
• 16:10
  one ten. Right there, you get a big jump with half the ownership,
• 16:12
  So give me some elliott. I hope he wrestles Woodbird probably yeah,
• 16:17
  he's strong, probably needs to land on the chin nine percent. I'll probably
• 16:19
  be somewhere around there is how I see it. Stat Carr, what's going
• 16:25
  on? Nickel? Stat Cart Indeed, great, great pay per view.
• 16:27
  Very pumped for this one. Next fight on the cards. This one should
• 16:30
  be a lot of fun. Danny Barlow taking on Josh Quinlan Quinland in on
• 16:34
  short notice for Kinoshita. Eighty seven hundred is Barlin seventy or Barlow excuse me,
• 16:41
  seventy five hundred is Quinlan. Looking at the odds in this one,
• 16:45
  minus one ninety is Barlow plus one sixty five on the way back for Quinland,
• 16:51
  This fight's minus two point fifty to finish. We got Barlow plus one
• 16:55
  hundred inside the distance Quinland plus two point fifty there right to you in this
• 17:00
  one looks like striker versus striker. To me, Barlow long fighter, big
• 17:04
  fighter, Quinland known for his power. I think someone probably falls in this
• 17:08
  one, but maybe it needs to be in round one or two. If
• 17:11
  it gets a third round or pass, I'm not sure it'll score enough.
• 17:15
  Again, I'm expecting some big scores on this card. The optimal probably to
• 17:19
  be over six hundred, with ten of the twelve fights expected to finish.
• 17:25
  Yeah, I mean that's a good, short, little breakdown already. I
• 17:27
  think that we are going to get a striking match here. Both guys have
• 17:30
  knockout power. It is minus two to fifty to in inside the distance,
• 17:36
  which makes me like it more just on metrics, but really on both sides,
• 17:40
  we need the knockout, even for more than ten x. Probably we
• 17:45
  need the knockout because I don't expect either side to look for takedowns unless they're
• 17:48
  just unless they get cracked and they're trying to buy some time. But I
• 17:52
  had if Barlow wins this fight over the course of three rounds, he might
• 17:57
  score sixty points in a striking match. Quinlan's never been knocked out. Barlow's
• 18:03
  never been knocked out, so I have a hard time just picking this fight
• 18:07
  to end a knockout. I did put it currently as a three star on
• 18:11
  the fight rankings because they're both in play for one hundred plus points if that
• 18:14
  knockout is in the first round, and they won't get too much ownership,
• 18:18
  I don't think. But I also a fine moving it down to a two
• 18:22
  star after I start building my lineup, so if I don't end up with
• 18:25
  a lot of this fight, because I do prefer people around Barlow, I
• 18:27
  like other underdogs to have a better chance of winning. Also more ways to
• 18:32
  hit a ceiling, so I could definitely see me being just low on both
• 18:34
  sides, impossibly even fading it because it is it does seem like a knockout
• 18:40
  or bust. I just I don't know, man, they both got power.
• 18:44
  I could see the knockout happening and ME just being pissed off. So
• 18:45
  I'm not sure what I'll do with this. Well, maybe like a ten
• 18:48
  percent each side just to get a little bit, but I think this will
• 18:51
  be more of a a optimizer type fight for MMM for me, and I
• 18:55
  don't see it being in my single entry either. Side. Really, my
• 19:00
  preferred play is gonna be Barlow. I think it's kind of a lot like
• 19:03
  Quentland's last fight, where Barlow's gonna be the taller, longer, faster,
• 19:07
  more skilled striker, and I just think he picks his way to a twenty
• 19:11
  nine, twenty eight or thirty twenty seven unanimous decision and just doesn't even hit
• 19:15
  ten X. That's my that's my prediction. Yeah. I think this fight
• 19:18
  goes a lot of like the last one too. I mean, Barlow a
• 19:22
  lot like Trey Waters. He's gonna have a seven inch reach advantage in this
• 19:25
  one two inches in heights. Trey Waters, he I mean out doubled Quinland
• 19:29
  and strikes last time one oh four to fifty. Just the Barlow doing that,
• 19:33
  that's really not yeah, yeah, I mean he, I mean Trey
• 19:37
  Waters was styling on him, like his head movement to jab all that as
• 19:41
  far as just like Trey Waters reached though, seventy seven really big for the
• 19:45
  division. Now we got Barlow even higher. I think Barlow probably has some
• 19:48
  more one hit power than Trey Waters does I don't know. I mean these
• 19:55
  inside of this is plus one hundred plus two fifty. I can't ignore it
• 19:59
  that way looking at the odds. So I don't know. I was going
• 20:02
  back and forth, like if I had to pick one, who would I
• 20:03
  play in this one? Now? I was goona go Quinland, even though
• 20:07
  Barlow's my pick just because of his price. But how we have again talking
• 20:11
  ownership. Ownership is always important. In MMA eighty eight hundred Fluckier NANDUS thirty
• 20:15
  six percent Barlow, we have an eighty seven hundred at nineteen percent, Rob
• 20:19
  eighty six hundred and thirty eight percent, Virgaria Delima eighty five thirty five percent,
• 20:25
  Xang Meng Yang or Ming yang Zang, whatever one it is, thirty
• 20:27
  three percent. Then you get to Tapoorian volt down there, they're gonna be
• 20:32
  really high on at eighty two a K. So Barlow seems to be kind
• 20:36
  of forgotten in this range. And again you've been absolutely money on ownership.
• 20:40
  It totally makes sense. Sandwich in between wrestlers, maybe just for that reason
• 20:45
  alone, like Barlow inside or Barlow Round one props plus three fifty not great,
• 20:51
  but maybe you get like twenty five percent Barlow. Maybe a little overweight
• 20:56
  there. Hope it's a round one or round two. I don't know,
• 20:59
  at the end of the day, I'm gonna be playing with twelve fights on
• 21:00
  the card and pretty big ownership differences in the top top tier. I'm going
• 21:06
  to be playing some open Elliott and I'm gonna be playing some Barlow because I
• 21:10
  don't love Gary Whittaker and Maverick as much and everyone else is chalky up there.
• 21:14
  So yeah, I'm playing Barlow. I hope he wins. I'll play
• 21:18
  some Quinland at seventy five hundred. I do have some reservations, like you
• 21:21
  though, Marley, if this fight gets outside around two, it probably will
• 21:25
  not score well. But we do have under one and a half at about
• 21:27
  plus one to ten under two and a half at only two bucks minus one
• 21:32
  eighty five. Any final thoughts on this one, uh no, just talking
• 21:37
  about it. I ended up moving it to two stars as we were speaking,
• 21:41
  so right now it's two star and then maybe the other way around.
• 21:42
  If I end up with more than I think, I'll move it to a
• 21:45
  three star, but have not built lineup yet, so I don't know what
• 21:48
  I'm doing. Yeah, I mean that makes sense. And again we talked
• 21:51
  about you can always plug Barlow in, take Barlow out and plug in like
• 21:55
  Ming yang Zang leave the three hundred. I would say that usually gets you
• 21:57
  different though, but honestly, like this, I don't even think that gets
• 22:00
  a contrarian. Maybe use a Barlow over an Elliott and leave six hundred that
• 22:07
  way or something. I probably wouldn't go finish a lineup plugging knacka Mura,
• 22:11
  Go knock a Mura down to Barlow. Since I don't think the odds of
• 22:14
  him out scoring him are that great, I'll try and get different in uh.
• 22:18
  Like I said, play Knakamura or him together, play not or play
• 22:22
  Barlow over Oben Elliotts one of those other guys in the top tier that have
• 22:26
  less upside. Let's keep it rolling. Huge fight right here, right in
• 22:30
  the mid tier, very important, Ming Yang Zang taking on bretson Riverio minus
• 22:33
  one fifteen is Zang plus or minus one oh five is Riverio. This fight
• 22:40
  minus seven hundred to finish minus seven hundred Zang minus won ten inside the distance
• 22:45
  Robio plus one forty. Looking at the odds in this one, we have
• 22:48
  Zang thirty three percent, Robio twenty nine percent. Says Chalk, I'm definitely
• 22:53
  eating Big Marley eighty four seventy eight. I think someone falls in this one
• 23:00
  looks like two primary strikers to me, definitely hit auble on both sides.
• 23:04
  I don't think there's some mission games awful, But man, I'm not sure
• 23:08
  what I'm expecting for these two like career wise in the UFC, but I'm
• 23:12
  expecting a fun fight today, no doubt about this week and no doubt about
• 23:17
  that. I'll throw it to you on a question if you had to make
• 23:19
  a rule maximae or at least one in this fight or the main event,
• 23:22
  which one are you going for? Main event? But because the inside the
• 23:29
  distance prop minus one sixty main event minus seven hundred in this one, obviously
• 23:33
  so many more outs like both to POORI and Volt can get their decisions.
• 23:37
  But it is interesting if this fight makes it out of round one, and
• 23:42
  well, if there's no finish, neither one of these guys at scoring where
• 23:45
  the main event could be on the they could be a stack on the freaking
• 23:48
  optimal lineup because this she could just be a five round five of the year
• 23:52
  type of war. But yeah, I mean, I just think that this
• 23:56
  is close to both though you can you can make a rule for both.
• 24:00
  Really, we got minus seven hundred inside the distance minus one ninety to win
• 24:03
  in round one. They're priced near the mid range. They're both killer be
• 24:07
  killed fighters. They've both been to the decision one time and they lost.
• 24:12
  All other wins are finishes, So yeah, load up on this fight.
• 24:17
  I don't even have a preferred play. I ended up picking Ribero because he
• 24:21
  had a little plus next to his name, and it's really a coin flip
• 24:23
  to me. But on DFS, I'm very interested in this fight and I'm
• 24:26
  gonna be loading up if I had to pick one, though, I'd rather
• 24:29
  save that six hundred dollars and go Ribero. But this will be in most
• 24:33
  of my lineups, eighty five percent plus of my lineups, whereas the main
• 24:37
  event, I'm gonna make a rule that one of them are in every lineup.
• 24:41
  You are gonna make a roar. Yeah, No, I'm with you
• 24:42
  too. I had have no preferred lean by preferred lean. That comes down
• 24:47
  to this game theory. Like we talked about a lot, it's Ribero,
• 24:49
  because make lineup, plug in Zang, take out Zang, Go Ribero.
• 24:55
  You just left six hundred and you can eliminate dupes there, and they're pretty
• 24:59
  much a coin flip fight. Like Yeah, Sean V's always in here saying
• 25:02
  a lot of these Chinese dudes have been fighting, like on the pro scene
• 25:06
  since seventeen years old. Fighting cans for sure, but there's something to be
• 25:10
  said about getting fighting grown ass man as a kid, getting in there,
• 25:14
  getting the experience getting punched in the face. I mean, he's definitely been
• 25:18
  knocked out. It feels like you have some power too. He's hit able,
• 25:21
  though. I think someone early is gonna get gonna get put down.
• 25:25
  It's how I see it, Like you said, minus one ninety in round
• 25:27
  one for this fight to finish, I don't think either of these two wrestled
• 25:30
  you unless they get clocked. Do you think they just stand in someone falls.
• 25:33
  I actually that was another reason I picked Robero. I do think he's
• 25:37
  the more likely wrestler in this one. Both of them are pretty awful off
• 25:41
  their backs, so either one of them could have success in top control.
• 25:44
  But the way I kind of saw it was Zang is the scarier striker,
• 25:47
  the one that's gonna be swinging heavier bombs, you know, planting his feet
• 25:49
  and trying to kill this guy, whereas Roberto can knock this guy out as
• 25:52
  well. But I thought he was more likely to maybe look for takedowns,
• 25:56
  and I think he could spend a lot of time in time control, finished
• 26:00
  the fight with the submission, finish the fight with the TK on the ground,
• 26:03
  So I just thought he had more ways to win, which helped me
• 26:07
  lean towards him. Yeah, I don't know that I would project any real
• 26:11
  takedowns in this one. Maybe just one. I guess if you're looking at
• 26:15
  these prop sides, it I doubt it would be over one. But yeah,
• 26:19
  I just think that for DFS, that's where all my interest in.
• 26:22
  You're not gonna see me betting on either side of this fight. Like,
• 26:25
  I don't see how it's going to play out, but it just seems like
• 26:27
  it's very important. Ever DraftKings, we're probably going to get one hundred plus
• 26:32
  points and at eighty four and seventy eight hundred that that's going to be on
• 26:36
  the OPT lineup. Yeah, no, No, I plan on making a
• 26:38
  rule like the main events in twenty and below. Maybe I'll take a step
• 26:42
  back and be like at least one of this fight and the main events,
• 26:45
  a lot of my lineups will probably have two of them. Again, it's
• 26:48
  an ownership game. These are two definitely popular fights, but you definitely can't
• 26:53
  ignore these at all. I will say the last thing on this one.
• 26:56
  When you're looking at submission props, only two books have it online, and
• 27:00
  then you need bet. I'm bet online Zang has a better subprop five point
• 27:03
  fifty to six fifty. Then it's flipped on the other site seven fifty to
• 27:07
  six hundred. So yeah, books think it's gonna stand on the feet,
• 27:11
  but they don't even know who would have the advantage on the mats again out
• 27:15
  side of Roberto, just because Zang six hundred more build the lineup, Plug
• 27:18
  and Zang take Zang out Plugin Roberto least six hundred plus and usually get off
• 27:23
  a couple more dupes than that. One. Appreciate everyone hanging out thirty watching
• 27:29
  like button. We always appreciate it. And again doing the show Wednesday,
• 27:32
  I'll be handing the fights with my man Rio. Everything will be up Friday
• 27:36
  as always, even earlier. Again, Marley got ownership up. We'll get
• 27:40
  all of this to the site. He's got his fight rankings on the site
• 27:42
  as well. If you do want a little early look, all my stuff
• 27:47
  will be up today, maybe today, maybe tomorrow, for sure by Friday,
• 27:49
  a lot of my fights already done though as well, just like talking
• 27:52
  with Marley, switching a couple tags back and forth, finalizing stuff, and
• 27:57
  of course line movement will be trying in that weigh ins all the way until
• 28:02
  fight night. Next fight on the card, this one, I will not
• 28:04
  waste your time on ring and Knakamura taking on Carlos Vera ninety six hundred Knakamura
• 28:11
  sixty six hundred is Vera. Vera taking this fight for Brady Heatstand on somewhat
• 28:17
  short notice. Minus twelve hundred is Knockingmurra. Plus seven fifty is Carlos Vera
• 28:22
  his fights minus two fifty to finish. Knakamura is minus two sixty inside the
• 28:26
  distance Vera plus fourteen hundred. Yeah, I mean Knackamura, we haven't what
• 28:30
  forty nine percent ninety six hundred. If he can fit him great, He's
• 28:36
  gonna probably put up one hundred plus. Will that be enough though? And
• 28:40
  that all that really depends on I think how many dogs come through. So
• 28:42
  I guess, Marley, what are you doing with Nakamura on this card because
• 28:47
  he could put up one to eighteen and still not be on the optimal just
• 28:49
  because of the pricing. The other scores from dogs, top tier guys,
• 28:55
  et cetera. So what are you doing? See? I started doing all
• 28:59
  my uh my work overtiponation with Knackimura as my first core play before I did
• 29:04
  anything else. I was like, easy, when guys pick them to finish
• 29:10
  in round one, we don't even need them to finish in round one because
• 29:11
  he can wrestle. If he wants to go out there and land ten takedowns,
• 29:15
  spend thirteen minutes of top control time. He could do that, and
• 29:18
  he could score one hundred and twenty in a decision type thing. But then
• 29:22
  I'm going through the rest of the card. I'm like, God, I
• 29:23
  think everybody's gonna score over one hundred points here. So I don't know that
• 29:26
  I'm gonna be able to get to a ninety six hundred dollars Namako Knockamura as
• 29:32
  much as I thought I would, So I don't know. I kinda like,
• 29:37
  in my mind, I would like to be around Field waight get it,
• 29:38
  get him in close to fifty percent of my lineups, But I don't
• 29:41
  know. As I started building lineups, I could really talk myself into going
• 29:45
  down to Elliott. I could talk myself into going down to Hernandez, Morab
• 29:49
  Lima, min Yang, lame Os Volkanoski, like all these people have really
• 29:55
  similar ceilings. So at this point, I'm kind of talking myself into be
• 29:57
  an underweight on Knockamore. But I mean, I don't like to throw around
• 30:03
  the L word much, But if there's a lock on this card, it's
• 30:06
  Knackamora, Like he's your for sure win, whereas all these other names that
• 30:10
  I named off could lose and we wouldn't be a little bit surprised. You
• 30:12
  know, I think the only way Knackamora has a chance of losing this fight
• 30:18
  as he goes for a takedown, he gets caught in a guillotine. That's
• 30:22
  it. That's the only way. I don't know, or a DQ like
• 30:23
  he's elbowing this guy with freaking twelve to six elbows, you know, something
• 30:27
  crazy. But Vera there's nothing. There's nothing good about Vera. There's no
• 30:33
  way he's gonna win a single minute in this fight. It's got to be
• 30:36
  a guillotine. That's the only way I see it happening. So I'm gonna
• 30:38
  fade Vera. I feel like, you know, he's at three four percent
• 30:41
  ownership, it's already too much. I'm cool on that. So it's all
• 30:45
  about Knockamore. What are we gonna do with him? I don't know.
• 30:48
  I'll probably update it once I get my lineup's bill. I'll let people know
• 30:52
  in my fight rankings what I did end up with, But as of now,
• 30:55
  I'm not sure. I'm kind of like ownership. I'm just kind of
• 30:57
  fifty fifty on this one. But it's all Knockamoor. I was waiting for
• 31:00
  you to go with your classic like round one prop and play whatever that would
• 31:04
  be. And it was minus one ten. No, it was minus one
• 31:07
  twenty five yesterday. Now it's plus one hundred. And I think that inside
• 31:12
  the distance prop was minus three fifty. Now it's moved up, So some
• 31:17
  money coming in on the over a bit, I mean under one and a
• 31:19
  half in this is plus one twenty. Obviously a lot of that is because
• 31:22
  they're assuming Vara doesn't do anything, so it's really just on the Knakamura side.
• 31:27
  I'm with you though, Like if I had to pick, if I
• 31:30
  had a guest right now, if i'd be overweight underweight around the field,
• 31:33
  I probably will say underweight, And that's just because I mean ninety six hundred
• 31:37
  and a tier of his own. I like leaving money on the table,
• 31:41
  like I'll be playing the main event or that zanying fight we just talked about.
• 31:45
  Like I know I'm eating other chalk spots. You can't eat chalk everywhere.
• 31:48
  It's harder to leave more salary on the table play Knakamura. I'm not
• 31:53
  gonna be making any rules or like min max exposures. I'm gonna have it
• 31:57
  my pool. If I somehow got seventy percent love my script, I'll definitely
• 32:01
  play seventy percent rimya. Now if I don't, though, and I only
• 32:05
  had twenty percent Knakamura and I love everything else, I still think I'd be
• 32:08
  fine with twenty percent, just because knowing he'll be fifty even maybe even a
• 32:14
  little more, and just he scores one to twelve, all you need is
• 32:17
  Elliott Anthony or Nandez Mora Delima, probably two of those guys if you're talking
• 32:22
  the mid eight k guys. But there's so many guys on this card.
• 32:25
  Ten of the twelve is expected to finish a lot of wrestlers as we go
• 32:29
  up here. These guys has some big boy upside for sure. So I
• 32:34
  mean, what knack Himura do you think he wrestles at all, or do
• 32:36
  you think he keeps it easy. He's a former wrestler. He's definitely shown
• 32:40
  a lot more striking as of late, transitioning his MMA game into striking or
• 32:45
  transition is wrestling into MMA mixed martial arts. But is he gonna knock him
• 32:50
  out or is he gonna You're gonna wrestle a bit. I'm picking first round
• 32:52
  knockout as my ultimate prediction. But my notes start off by saying Knakamura by
• 33:00
  any way he wants, so I don't know what the hell he's gonna do.
• 33:02
  For sure. I agree with that. Anything anything he wants to do,
• 33:06
  he could do it. He's a stud. I mean, yeah,
• 33:07
  he's a real deal. Anyway, it's not I mean, I think Bear
• 33:09
  is bad. I think Nakamura is the real deal. So it's both sides
• 33:14
  against short notice. He's stand fight would have been more fun. I still
• 33:16
  think Nakamura would have owned him. Appreciate that, will appreciate those words,
• 33:22
  man, Let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the car again, twenty
• 33:24
  seven minutes. You will get Hoop to Jen and Tamball. We'll try and
• 33:28
  get out of that right by then talking merger deal, any questions for that.
• 33:31
  NASCAR is gonna be here Daytona. This weekend discord already opened for the
• 33:36
  NASCAR streets. Getting very fun over here at Chippinnation dot Com. Nfl over
• 33:42
  it is sad all the PGA the mmas of the world in full force,
• 33:45
  and of course MLB will be here before we know it. Next fight on
• 33:51
  the car, Big Boys, the only big boy fight on the car Marcos
• 33:54
  Virgerio Dilima taking on Justin Tafa eighty five hundred, Delima seventy seven hundred is
• 34:00
  Justin Tafa. This fight's minus five hundred to finish. We got Dalma and
• 34:06
  Tafa bos both plus one twenty inside the distance Tafa round one plus two ninety,
• 34:13
  de Lima round one plus two ninety. Now they're good fight, expected
• 34:17
  to finish, very heavily favored to finish right in the mid tier Big Marley.
• 34:22
  So what I'm saying, I think this card is gonna score probably over
• 34:25
  six hundred the optimal. What combinations do you get? Right? We're gonna
• 34:30
  talk about der Lamos next Ernandez copy Law. I mean, all these fights,
• 34:34
  dan Ne, you're exposed to finish both sides right here plus one twenty.
• 34:37
  Who do you got seeah plus one twenty inside the distance? I should
• 34:43
  say, who do you got either side at plus two ninety in round one
• 34:46
  doesn't sound great, But fight ends in round one is minus one forty one,
• 34:52
  and then we got fight minus is fight ends inside the distance minus five
• 34:55
  hundred. So this is just a lot like the other the U saying in
• 35:00
  Robero fight. To me, I don't have a good feeling about who wins,
• 35:04
  but I think it's going to end in round one. They're near the
• 35:06
  mid range, so they're probably gonna score one hundred plus and be on the
• 35:08
  optimal no matter who it is. If this is a striking match and these
• 35:13
  guys come in there and they just trade in a phone booth, I think
• 35:17
  Tafa knocks them out. If Lima's smart, I think he could look for
• 35:22
  a takedown and then just dominate the fight on the ground, get a finish
• 35:24
  there early in the fight. But Lima could also knock out Tafa in the
• 35:28
  first round two if they are fighting in its phone booth. So for me,
• 35:31
  it was I just leaned towards Delima to have more ways to win this
• 35:35
  fight, and he's my preferred play. But if I need seven hundred dollars
• 35:39
  or more, eight hundred dollars or more, I'm moving down to Tafa.
• 35:44
  I think that this is just a fight I want in most of my lineups,
• 35:46
  eighty five percent or more of my lineups, and I don't have that
• 35:51
  strong of a take on who is going to win this fight. So just
• 35:52
  load up on this fight. Whoever your take is, get a little bit
• 35:55
  more of them. But you don't want to fade the other guy, because
• 36:00
  this fight's probably gonna be on the optimal lineup, and it's kind of a
• 36:02
  coin flip on who it's gonna be. But give me de lima. Do
• 36:06
  you think Talimah wrestles at all? I said, I picked him to do
• 36:12
  that. I said, if he's smart, he'll wrestle. Man. These
• 36:15
  fighters aren't usually very smart, so I don't. I don't know he's he's
• 36:20
  not a wrestler per se. But in a fight where you're only facing a
• 36:24
  striker and you do have a ground game, why wouldn't she you know?
• 36:30
  Yeah? I mean and when you if you do get the take down when
• 36:32
  you're on top. I mean, he's so big, the dude just he
• 36:36
  won't get up. He has nothing off his back, maybe conserve a bit
• 36:38
  of energy. I picked h Marcos Rogieri Delima for that. Like on the
• 36:44
  feet very close. Both guys hit hard. I do like Talima's light kicks
• 36:47
  a lot, big light kick guy, of course. But the reason I
• 36:51
  picked him and why I think the odds are probably right is Dalima can get
• 36:54
  her take down. Tafa can't, and if he does, he's probably there
• 36:58
  all round. But Tapa's got power and again he care it right back to
• 37:01
  the same. If I have more tough than de Lima at the end of
• 37:05
  the day, I'd be fine with that and any Delima lean or any TV
• 37:08
  build and have Delema in it. Take him out eight hundred dollars plus leave
• 37:13
  Tafa and right there he just eliminated a lot of dupes pretty much the same
• 37:17
  upside as well, I mean top a lot of power. Someone probably goes
• 37:21
  down in this fight unless Alima puts on the wrestling shoes. Any chance of
• 37:25
  both gassing early and being an ugly decision win. Yeah, I was gonna
• 37:30
  say that's similar to the zang Roberto. Why I am going to make a
• 37:34
  rule for the main event, but I'm not going to necessarily make a rule
• 37:37
  for these two. But I think you could is that if this fight gets
• 37:39
  extended, I don't trust the cardio, but I do think at the same
• 37:43
  time, if it gets extended, Delima can really still put up a lot
• 37:45
  of points, even though he gases and fights himself, which takes me out
• 37:49
  of one hundred percent. But if this is a striking match and it makes
• 37:52
  it at around one, it's not gonna be great. So yeah, I'm
• 37:54
  not gonna make a rule for this, but if you're doing like five to
• 38:00
  ten lineups, I probably would, you know, just for all three of
• 38:02
  those fights, make a rule and then figure out the rest from there.
• 38:06
  Yeah. Yeah, I mean, if you look at the decision, odds
• 38:08
  plus three seventy five is to leading to win by decision tapas plus eight fifty.
• 38:14
  So if these guys gas folks, and I definitely agree, Dlima should
• 38:17
  win the decision. And that's because if it goes all fifteen, he's probably
• 38:22
  on top wrestling at least one full round, maybe another full round. Unless
• 38:27
  these guys really just are both sitting at range throwing a couple of strikes per
• 38:30
  minute and just no one's falling, and it's boring that way. I'm not
• 38:35
  hoping it's gonna be the case. I'm not making a rule in this one.
• 38:37
  Like Dalima eighty five hundred, Morob's eighty six hundred. He's gonna get
• 38:42
  a lot of ownership fluff your and Nandez right in this range to pour your
• 38:45
  Volks cheaper. We talked about the zang Ribero, so there's ways to get
• 38:50
  around this fight. Only big boy fight on the card minus five hundred to
• 38:52
  finish, though I'm definitely gonna be playing some of it. I'm glad you're
• 38:57
  reminded me. Big Marley Coolan's in. You're cool, and I hope you
• 39:00
  are still watching. He wanted to give away four memberships to people that are
• 39:07
  not a member yet and tie them with a twenty five dollars UFC ticket for
• 39:10
  this week the main GPP this week twenty five bucks. You can win one
• 39:15
  hundred K. I believe it's one hundred K. Maybe it's even two hundred
• 39:17
  k this week. I think it's one hundred. Though. He wants to
• 39:21
  give away four memberships to new people and then tie in one twenty five dollars
• 39:25
  ticket to each of those memberships. My thought process is we can do two
• 39:30
  on the show. Again, if you aren't a member right now and you
• 39:34
  want to be a member and you want to have a chance at this,
• 39:37
  put in the YouTube chat say why you I was thinking maybe two on the
• 39:40
  show, then go two in the YouTube comments. So if you are watching
• 39:45
  on playback, put your closest significant strikes to the main event total, so
• 39:50
  volt into POIA total significant strikes in that. That's all you got to do,
• 39:53
  and say you're not a member. So actually I'm going to put that
• 39:57
  in the comments too, significant strikes and then that you're not a member,
• 40:00
  and why you would like this. I'll go back. I'll find the two
• 40:04
  closest next week. Of course, when the fights are over, I'll go
• 40:07
  back look at the YouTube comments. Whoever was the two closest to get those
• 40:10
  significant strikes? And again, assuming you're not a member and you want in,
• 40:15
  we will give it away and follow up there that sound right to you
• 40:19
  to Big Marley, you want to give away four? Very generous. I
• 40:22
  think that's the best way we can do it. I like that, and
• 40:23
  I would say that anybody that lays the comment right now while we're live,
• 40:29
  just double up, give us another answer in the post show. Just refresh
• 40:31
  give us another answer there, so you gut us have two shots at it.
• 40:35
  There we go absolutely, so shout out to you cool and again we'll
• 40:37
  be two. If you're not a member, you want to get in right
• 40:40
  now, We'll give away two right there if there's enough. Otherwise we'll roll
• 40:45
  it over. Two would be three in the YouTube comments section. But shout
• 40:49
  out to you cool and very nice of you. One ticket twenty five dollars
• 40:52
  with a membership. Shout out to you man. He's also given away two
• 40:55
  hundred dollars PGA ticket as well. Fifty k up top coming off a massive
• 41:00
  two hundred fifty thousand dollars for my man, cooling sock. Yes, sir,
• 41:07
  let's keep it going though. Next fight on the card we have.
• 41:10
  Yeah, this is I think this one's kicking off the main card, or
• 41:15
  is it is? It? Isn't it Lamos Dern kicking off the main card?
• 41:20
  No, this is the sixth Copulov. Yeah, they're going to Hernanas
• 41:24
  Copulov. So this is the feature prelims right here. We've had a lot
• 41:29
  of line move in this one. So a Manda Lamos coming as a small
• 41:31
  favorite open minus two seventy against McKenzie Durn now sitting around minus one twenty three
• 41:37
  Kenzie Durn plus one oh one on the way back. This fight's minus one
• 41:42
  sixty five to finish, Lameos plus one thirty inside the distance Durn plus two
• 41:47
  seventy five odds in this or projected ownership we have for this one, we
• 41:52
  have Lamos twenty two percent, McKenzie Durned twenty two percent. How do you
• 41:58
  see this one going down? Bigmarin? Yeah, I think it's a good
• 42:01
  fight to target because I see it being Lameos TKO or a Dern submission,
• 42:08
  and either of those are gonna score well. I just think that it's gonna
• 42:14
  take one takedown for Darn to really have a chance at a submission. She's
• 42:16
  gonna dominate. If she gets one takedown, I think she spends the rest
• 42:20
  of the time in a dominant position or she finishes the fight. But if
• 42:24
  she just spends the rest of that round in a dominant position, I don't
• 42:28
  know that she's gonna get any more takedowns. Like this is not a girl
• 42:30
  that sells out for takedowns. She averages less than one takedown per fifteen minutes,
• 42:35
  and Lamos is gonna be the better striker here. If she can defend
• 42:38
  the three or four takedowns that Dern throws out there early, then Durn might
• 42:43
  just give up and then start falling back on her striking game. And it's
• 42:46
  kind of a similar matchup to Durn's last fight, where she's just fighting a
• 42:51
  better, way more powerful striker and she got knocked down four times in her
• 42:54
  last fight. I think that Lamos kind of has that sort of upside here
• 42:58
  too, so I'm gonna be heavy on it. But I also think that
• 43:02
  it's not an all in fight because if Lamos wins a striking decision here,
• 43:07
  she's not gonna be on the optimal lineup. So right now, I got
• 43:08
  it as a four star on the rankings for that reason. But in my
• 43:13
  handbuilds, I'm probably gonna be looking at this quite a bit getting in either
• 43:15
  one of them. But my preferred play is gonna be Lamos, mainly because
• 43:21
  I was super heavy on Androge last time and that really helped me have a
• 43:23
  good night. So I'm just gonna go back to the well and pick Lamos
• 43:25
  for by Knocket. Yeah No, you absolutely dailed that fight the last one,
• 43:30
  and I mean it feels like this is Lamos and Androga have so many
• 43:34
  similarities and really heavy hands I mean Duran and she's on the feet. He's
• 43:38
  probably cooked, like she took a lot of damage in that fight. The
• 43:43
  power she has coming the way of Lamos like Lamos isn't gonna be worried about
• 43:45
  it at all. However, talk about classes styles, I mean, might
• 43:51
  take one take down for McKenzie Durhan, who is not a wrestler, goes
• 43:53
  out there and shoots takedowns like that, but she is that level of grappler.
• 43:59
  I'm on the I'm McKenzie dirt again again. I was on her against
• 44:01
  Andrage at that line. It feels like I have to be at this line
• 44:06
  against Lamos, But it's also the line movement that keeps getting me too,
• 44:09
  Like minus two seventy and they spent all week as Drren continued to take money.
• 44:14
  Even a couple of days ago, it was sitting at what minus one
• 44:17
  thirty, Now it's minus one twenty. This line could close minus one ten
• 44:22
  even I wouldn't be surprised to see that. So I guess at that point,
• 44:25
  if this line does and durn keeps taking money and this line closes,
• 44:30
  a pick him or something. I guess then I would have more interests in
• 44:34
  the Lamos side because of the four hundred dollars, I'd assume Durn would be
• 44:37
  a lot more higher owned than Lamos, And then that's the only way I'd
• 44:43
  probably go on the more Lamos side. So the line stays where it is
• 44:45
  now. I'm on Durn four hundred dollars savings, just get a takedown,
• 44:50
  finish it that way. But if Durn keeps taking money and then we see
• 44:53
  projected ownership on Friday Marley had like Durn at thirty and Lamos at eighteen,
• 45:00
  then I think that's somewhere where I could get beyond the lame O side.
• 45:02
  Easy way to get different on a pretty chalky cart. Oh thank you right
• 45:07
  there? So yeah, comment this will be in the YouTube chat, So
• 45:10
  you do it there in the YouTube chat. Comment the total significant strikes to
• 45:15
  pour yourvolk all together. We will check back after the fights next week.
• 45:20
  Yeah. A couple of people right here? Yeah, cam in here then?
• 45:22
  I do know you're always in here? You are. I know we
• 45:25
  did give you a monthly membership as well on an NFL show. Gonna try
• 45:30
  and give it to a couple people that have not had it already, Travis
• 45:34
  da Warta, I want to say you also did to get one in the
• 45:37
  past. Again, I didn't say that earlier, but let me know for
• 45:39
  sure, Cam, I'm not sure you have trying to get some new people.
• 45:43
  The one month experience at shippinnation dot Com. Five fights left main card,
• 45:47
  Tom Man, Anthony Fluffy Hernandez minus two fifty five taking on Roman copy
• 45:52
  Love at plus two point fifteen looking at the inside the distance prop in this
• 45:57
  one minus two eighty Hernandez plus one hundred Copulav plus one ninety five ownership.
• 46:04
  In this one we got Hernandez thirty six percent. We have Copulav at nineteen
• 46:08
  percent. Man, I was trying to talk myself into some Copulov in this
• 46:14
  one. I'm gonna play some Copulav for sure. I was trying to talk
• 46:16
  myself into a Copylov pick. It's another clash of styles, Wrestler and Fluffier
• 46:22
  Dandez, striker and Copulov Copylov eleven of his twelve wins. I Ko nasty
• 46:28
  head kicks, good body kicks. South Paul just a dangerous, well rounded
• 46:31
  fighter, but Man Fluffier Nandez has that pace we're gonna talk about Morob next.
• 46:38
  Anthony Hernandez averages more takedowns per fifteen minutes than Morob. It's very little,
• 46:45
  but it is a little more right there. In his UFC wins five
• 46:49
  of them, one's sixteen, one, twenty one, seventeen, ninety four
• 46:53
  and one hundred and thirty five six point seven nine takedowns per fifteen four point
• 46:59
  seven two significant strikes per fifteen minutes. I don't know, man, I
• 47:02
  will definitely be playing this fight. Can Copylov, I guess, keep up
• 47:07
  the pace or can he catch Fluffy early? Because I think that's what he
• 47:10
  needs always. Fluffy's gonna be on him chain wrestling for days. So great
• 47:15
  fight for sure, though, Yeah, I think he I mean, it's
• 47:19
  got to be knockout or bust for copy Love, but he is the better
• 47:23
  striking. He's gonna have a big striking as more dangerous striker for sure.
• 47:27
  It's just that Hernandez is not gonna accept a striking match. He's in.
• 47:30
  Copy Laves doesn't get to dictate where this fight takes place. So if Copylav
• 47:36
  wins, it's gonna be a knockout and in any round, like if it's
• 47:38
  the third round he loses the first two to wrestling, he might not get
• 47:43
  there, but I think it's more likely early he just doesn't give Hernandez time
• 47:49
  to get off on his wrestling, and he knocks him out early and he
• 47:51
  breaks the slate. So I like copy Love for that knockout potential. But
• 47:54
  Hernandez is gonna be one of my one of my top plays on the late.
• 48:00
  He is averaging over one hundred and sixteen draft Kings points in his wins,
• 48:05
  and his path to victory in this fight is through the ground. And
• 48:07
  this guy is somebody who can change wrestle for an entire fifteen minutes. Copylov
• 48:13
  could not keep up with his pace, so I just expect Hernandez to drown
• 48:16
  copy Loov and finish him late. But we don't even need the finish from
• 48:20
  Hernandez, like he Maybe the longer this goes, the more it helps us,
• 48:23
  because he could just be landing more and more takedowns, racking up the
• 48:27
  control time those little baby punches start adding up, so he could have a
• 48:30
  huge ceiling here and at eighty eight hundred he could outscore Knakamorra. So I
• 48:36
  like Hernandez a lot I'm gonna be very heavy on this fight. Definitely want
• 48:39
  some Copylov hedge exposure, but Hernandez is the preferred play. He's the pick
• 48:45
  to win, and I expect one hundred plus from him if he does get
• 48:49
  his hand raised. Yeah, I do think the like the wrong one prop.
• 48:52
  I do think Copylov is more live early than late for Ko. Like
• 48:57
  you said, he just doesn't let Fluffy get off on. It's like he
• 49:00
  doesn't let him get into the legs, get into the hips, kiss him
• 49:02
  at distance. Pause those kicks. I mean, Copola is very, very
• 49:07
  dangerous. That head kick he had in Utah a couple months ago was absolutely
• 49:12
  insane on Copylov. So yeah, I great, great fight to target.
• 49:16
  I like the Fluffy side more even at the ownership because even in the decision
• 49:21
  win, I like you said, you probably want a decision from Hernandez.
• 49:24
  Most of his fights at least second, third or decision win, and he
• 49:29
  can put up one hundred and thirty points in the decision with all the takedowns.
• 49:32
  If Copylov can't get there in round one, I think he probably slows
• 49:37
  down her. Nanda is known for his cardio and man, you're just gonna
• 49:39
  see multiple of them. So this fight is probably one of the harder,
• 49:44
  one of my favorite fights on the on the card, and I'd probably even
• 49:46
  like it more than the Delema Tafa fights because I think if Fluffy wins,
• 49:52
  it's gonna be a big boy score. And if Copylov wins for the price
• 49:54
  at seventy three hundred, there's some dogs maybe will come through, but I
• 50:00
  think he probably puts up. It's a knockout. So I see Fluffy,
• 50:02
  big score, I see Copulov knockout. Definitely one of my favorite fights on
• 50:07
  the card. And before we get in this Morob fight, if you had
• 50:08
  to pick one Morob or Fluffy Hernandez, whould you pick? He said,
• 50:15
  I don't know, man, I mean they're they're so so fluffy, but
• 50:19
  I think, yeah, I'm gonna go Fluffy because like his wrestling edge is
• 50:23
  so much bigger than Morob's wrestling edge. In this fight, we'll get there,
• 50:28
  yeah, well, yeah, well we'll go right here the Morob sa
• 50:30
  hudo. The reason I said the Hernandez was, I guess we'll get right
• 50:35
  into it. I'll get my break down quick. So Morob davals Philly Henry
• 50:37
  Sahuo eighty six hundred, Morob seventy six hundred so Hudo Morob coming about minus
• 50:44
  two twenty plus one eighty on the way back for so Hudo. This is
• 50:47
  the second fight on the card expected to go the distance plus two fifteen for
• 50:53
  this fight to finish. So Hudo the dog with better finishing odds at plus
• 50:58
  three seventy five Morab plus four forty and Yeah. So what we've seen morop
• 51:02
  score in his USC wins one sixty seven, seventy eight, one sixty four,
• 51:08
  one oh eight, seventy four, one forty eight, one thirty six,
• 51:13
  one twenty four, one twenty nine absolutely insane. You would take all
• 51:17
  all those nine wins. You would take seven of those wins. He scored
• 51:22
  seventy four and seventy eight. Now, man, that seventy eight win was
• 51:25
  against Jose. Although all those known for some of the best takedown defense,
• 51:30
  Henri sa Judo is known for some having some of the best takedown defense,
• 51:35
  very high IQ, et cetera. So why I picked the Hernandez side over
• 51:38
  morabifi to pick is I could see this fight being somewhat like the All Though
• 51:44
  fight, where he just used his strength. He got in the clinch,
• 51:46
  got against the fence. He went zero for sixteen on takedowns in that fight,
• 51:52
  but his little strikes against the face that aren't significant, but they add
• 51:55
  up his pace, his pressure a million outs for more to get there in
• 52:00
  the decision. But I do agree with Fluffy Hernandez. I do side with
• 52:04
  just because I think he's either going to sleep or he'll have more successful takedowns
• 52:08
  as it goes on, where Shudo does have good takedown defense. But so
• 52:13
  Hudos a faith for me, I will say that fading Sahudo. I'm playing
• 52:16
  some Morob faith. I think it fades Ballzy because Hudo lighting off takedowns for
• 52:23
  three. Hey, I'm picking Rob and I feel good about it. But
• 52:27
  I hate playing anyone against Marob because he just stifles the offense. But all
• 52:31
  you're worrying about is takedowns, and he just stifles the offense. But talk
• 52:35
  to me while you're playing some Shuda. Well, I'm playing some Shuto because
• 52:38
  he is the more skilled striker in this one. He's he's the more dangerous
• 52:42
  striker in this one, and he's also the better wrestler. Uh and if
• 52:45
  he can get on top of Morab, I think he could do well in
• 52:50
  top position. You think you think you could control him for minutes, You
• 52:53
  don't think Morob would like I don't know that he could control them, but
• 52:55
  I think he could land takedowns and maybe land a decent amount of strikes while
• 53:00
  he's on the ground. But at seventy six hundred, I would expect Sahudo
• 53:02
  to score more than ten x if he if he does win the fight.
• 53:07
  But I mean, he's the better striker, he's the better wrestler. But
• 53:10
  Morob is a non stop machine who never stops coming forward. So his pace
• 53:15
  alone in the striking can just kind of wash out all the skill from Sahudo,
• 53:20
  and Morob can win a striking match just on pace alone. He never
• 53:23
  slows down. He could. He went for like forty nine takedown attempts in
• 53:27
  his last fight, unheard of, So just wrestling pace alone, he could
• 53:31
  beat Sahudo in wrestling as well. If we take out those two seventy point
• 53:36
  wins from him, Morob is averaging over one hundred and thirty nine points in
• 53:40
  his other seven wins. That's insane. He also has scored a ninety nine
• 53:44
  in a three round loss. Uh So Morob is just DraftKings Gold, and
• 53:49
  I always want to be heavy on Morob, but matchup wise, this is
• 53:52
  gonna be a tough one to score. To have a shot at one hundred
• 53:55
  and thirty nine play, I don't think that's in play, and I think
• 53:59
  seventy in play. So for that reason, I do choose Fluffy over Morob.
• 54:06
  But I'm also fine going Morob over Nakamura, so I just like him
• 54:09
  both. I'll probably be pretty heavy on them both. Uh, but I
• 54:14
  do think it's a tough, tough matchup for Morob here. I just I
• 54:19
  almost never pick against this guy. I love his pace, love his pressure,
• 54:22
  love his his takedown attempts, uh, and he never slows down.
• 54:25
  He could do it for twenty rounds, it seems like. So give me
• 54:28
  Morab to just set a pace so Hudo can't keep up with and probably win
• 54:32
  all three rounds. And I'm guessing he scores well, but man over or
• 54:38
  under one hundred points? What you would you say he he is gonna win?
• 54:42
  Is he gonna score? Is he gonna hit a hundred? Yeah?
• 54:45
  I mean, if you're telling me he's gonna win, I'm gonna say he's
• 54:46
  gonna hit it, just because the odds are more in your favor than not.
• 54:50
  But it's it's not a strong take by any means, Like I very
• 54:53
  much can see it kind of going like the all though fight. The reason
• 54:58
  I I don't know, you got me kind of thinking like do I leave
• 55:02
  Sahudo in the pool and stuff? The problem is, like I can make
• 55:05
  a case for almost all these guys, So you would you rather vet that
• 55:08
  I on it's so much. I also think I don't remember what my ownership
• 55:13
  was on Sahudo, but I think the name alone is gonna bring some ownership
• 55:15
  there. Probably over twenty percent was my I'm guessing you had twenty two.
• 55:19
  Yeah, So just seeing that that, I'm easy back to. Yes,
• 55:22
  I think that is another thing that could help me kind of get it away,
• 55:25
  But I'm not. I don't see me fading him. It's more I'd
• 55:28
  rather have ten percent Sahudo something like that, especially if I end up with
• 55:32
  a lot of Morob here, because I just won't be surprised at all to
• 55:36
  see Suhudo win this fight. I just think that he's on his way out.
• 55:38
  Morob's on his way to being a champion, So gotta go with Morob.
• 55:42
  Yeah, you see a path where Shudo wins, but isn't optimal like
• 55:47
  puts up like seventy seventy five. Yeah, just a back and forth fight.
• 55:51
  He lands three takedowns, Marob lands four takedowns, Shudo has seventy six.
• 55:55
  It significant in strikes and it's like it's around ten or something like that.
• 56:00
  And I think that there's other underdogs who have better chances of scoring one
• 56:06
  hundred points for sure, hundred percent agree with that. I'm still gonna keep
• 56:10
  this fates of who doing twenty and below again, especially seeing that ownership,
• 56:15
  I would love for the name Valley to get him some there. I'm picking
• 56:17
  Morob is just the pace and the pressure, and I'm not playing Sahudo because
• 56:21
  I think he'll constantly be worrying about the takedowns that stifles his offense. No
• 56:25
  doubt he's a better striker though, It's just Rob's got that grit, that
• 56:30
  heart, that pace, that cardial that very few have in the game.
• 56:32
  So yeah, give you Morobin this one as well. Three fights left to
• 56:37
  go will probably be a couple minutes late, but again we do have the
• 56:39
  PGA Show show starting in three minutes. Who to gen Tamba? Make sure
• 56:45
  to check that out. It's very exciting stuff at the Nation head over weekly,
• 56:50
  monthly, six month annual packages. That's MMA ownership out there, got
• 56:54
  slate, plan, fight rankings, et cetera. Everything will be on this
• 57:00
  Marley stuff is now. Stuff will be finalized by Friday. Any updates needed,
• 57:05
  We'll be updated, of course, Monster, NBA Slate, NBA All
• 57:07
  Star Break coming up, thirteen gamer. I believe today we got the NHL
• 57:12
  going on, PGA locking tomorrow as well. No better time Get in the
• 57:16
  ship Nation dot com, no better price in the industry, weekly, six
• 57:21
  month annual head over, Get in the discord, check it out. Three
• 57:24
  fights left Ian Gary Jeff Neil minus two thirty five is Ian Gary plus two
• 57:30
  hundred is Jeff Neil. This fight slightly favored to finish at minus one twenty
• 57:36
  Ian Gary plus two hundred inside the distance Jeff Neil plus two seventy five.
• 57:40
  So it sounded like you like Jeff Neil, or it sounded like you liked
• 57:45
  Ian Gary more than Whittaker and Randon Maverick. If so, let me know
• 57:51
  how I say this fight going. I think Ian Gary wins a decision.
• 57:54
  I more Jeff Neil interests in DFS I just think at the end of the
• 57:59
  day, Gary can pick him apart from range. Better defensively sound fighter,
• 58:04
  the better. I mean, he's definitely in his prime now. I just
• 58:07
  think Jeff Neil, Hey, Ian Gary's chirped him so much. Maybe Jeff
• 58:10
  Neil will be fighting more emotions. I don't know for sure about that.
• 58:15
  I just think Gary defensively sound except the song canon fights, can pick him
• 58:19
  away the tea kicks, the light kicks to just outpoint them and be more
• 58:22
  technical. However, Jeff Neil, and with the pricing and everything, he's
• 58:28
  live to catch the chin man, and when he does, he's gonna probably
• 58:30
  be optimal plus two seventy five inside the distance for seventy one hundred. I
• 58:36
  actually like Jeff Neil more than Ian Gary in DFS at the pricing, but
• 58:40
  my picks Ian Gary to win a decision. Yeah, and I don't really
• 58:45
  like Ian Garrett. I think those three favorites are all kind of fades in
• 58:47
  my opinion. It's just a fact he would be my favorite because I think
• 58:52
  he has all the skill edges. Really, Neil's a really good boxer,
• 58:58
  has a lot of power. He's hard to take down, so I do
• 59:00
  expect a striking match here, but a first round knockout like puts Gary in
• 59:07
  contention for the optimal. There's no guarantees of that, but a first round
• 59:10
  knockout from Neil puts him on the optimal at seventy one hundred. So I
• 59:15
  wouldn't eel have I sat online Neil's five hundred plus five hundred round one,
• 59:20
  Gary's plus five fifty. Wow, that's that's interesting. Actually, yeah,
• 59:23
  but yeah, maybe that makes me lean towards Neil if I had to use
• 59:27
  this fight, But I just think that Gary is just so much more skilled.
• 59:30
  He's gonna be hard to hit. Kind of reminds me of the WonderBoy
• 59:35
  Neil fight where I was heavy on Neil in that fight and he just couldn't
• 59:39
  couldn't get going because he couldn't find wonder Boy and Neil. I mean,
• 59:43
  Gary is sort of sort of like a more dangerous wonder Boy, especially at
• 59:47
  this point in their careers, and I think he is just gonna find his
• 59:52
  way to kind of put on a little striking clinic and win thirty twenty seven,
• 59:57
  which I don't like, especially on DraftKings at ninety. So my preferred
• 1:00:00
  play is to just be underweight on this fight. I'm not against fading Ian
• 1:00:05
  Gary. I actually put it as a two star on my rankings, and
• 1:00:07
  two stars not good, so I usually stay away from those. But at
• 1:00:10
  the same time, I'm not gonna x either one of these guys out of
• 1:00:13
  an MM player pool, and I think that the first round knockouts in play
• 1:00:16
  for both sides. There's you know, heat, there's heat on both sides.
• 1:00:21
  Both of them are gonna come in here pissed off. So I'm just
• 1:00:23
  looking forward to it. But I'm expecting Gary to win and score less than
• 1:00:29
  ten X. Yeah, I like it. We see the same. I
• 1:00:31
  got Gary winning, scoring not on the optimal. That's all I care about.
• 1:00:36
  I will take the Jeff Neil though, I Jeff Neil knocks them out.
• 1:00:38
  Hey, I would love to see Ian Gary go down in my lineups
• 1:00:40
  with like that because I'm definitely playing some Jeff Neil. And what we got
• 1:00:45
  odds or ownership seventeen percent, Ian Gary thirteen percent. Jeff Neil looks about
• 1:00:52
  right to me for sure. Two fights left on the card. I look
• 1:00:55
  at this fight Cole Maine event a lot like we just talked about that last
• 1:00:59
  one. In a lot of ways, Whittaker Paula Costa minus two forty five
• 1:01:02
  is rob plus two ten on the way back is Costa. Ownership in this
• 1:01:07
  one, nine seventy two hundred is the pricing Whittaker sixteen percent coast to twenty
• 1:01:14
  three percent, so the dog higher owned than the favorite. I do think
• 1:01:17
  that is the case as well. Plus or inside the distance props plus two
• 1:01:22
  thirty Whittaker plus three hundred is coast. I guess I'll throw it right back
• 1:01:28
  to you on a couple questions, Hey, like this Whittaker ian Gary fight
• 1:01:31
  pretty much the same money line, odds, similar inside the distance props like
• 1:01:37
  on the bottom half of this late I want to say both fights primarily stand
• 1:01:43
  the feed. I don't know. Do you think Whittaker tries to mix in
• 1:01:46
  takedowns at all? I guess I'll throw a to you on that. But
• 1:01:49
  I don't love this. These two fights and that Lee Maverick fight some of
• 1:01:52
  my least favorite fights on this card, and I won't have too much exposure
• 1:01:55
  to him. I prefer especially at the ownership of the Whittaker side over the
• 1:02:00
  coast To side, if he's gonna be lower owned on coming off an awful
• 1:02:06
  performance on a slate that's pretty chalky. I'll play some rob to get different
• 1:02:09
  up top. I know it's either gonna be Maverick or Bean Gary. Now
• 1:02:14
  that's gonna be my fade looking at the ownership, but I think this might
• 1:02:17
  probably bust more times than not. Everyone's down on Whittakers. I guess,
• 1:02:21
  start, who do you like in this fight? Well, Whittaker is my
• 1:02:24
  least favorite of those three that you name, because I'm picking him to get
• 1:02:28
  knocked out in the first round. So I'm gonna be heavier on Coasta in
• 1:02:31
  this one, and I'll be probably fading Whittaker. But if he doesn't get
• 1:02:37
  knocked out in the first round, like if this is a video game and
• 1:02:38
  we're turning knockouts off, I think that Whittaker should win the second in the
• 1:02:43
  third round with striking, even just being the better striker, with more cardio
• 1:02:47
  in the tank, more pressure, higher volume. But he could also start
• 1:02:52
  laying the takedowns in the second and third round as well. But in that
• 1:02:54
  first round, man, I think Coast is gonna be the scarier guy.
• 1:02:58
  I think he's gonna be coming four, probably on some new special supplements,
• 1:03:02
  and he's gonna be throwing bombs, and I think that crowd's gonna fire him
• 1:03:06
  up. I think he's gonna knock out Whittaker in round one and be on
• 1:03:08
  the optimal lineup, so I will be overweight to him for that reason.
• 1:03:12
  But if he does not get the knockout, I don't think he has any
• 1:03:15
  chance at one hundred points, and we're more at that point playing for a
• 1:03:19
  ten X Live underdog, which I'm okay with as well. I just think
• 1:03:22
  it's it's the best path for him. Winning is his highest ceiling as well,
• 1:03:29
  and that's what I like about it. Whittaacre, I think more towards
• 1:03:31
  the end of his career, not that Costa is, you know, on
• 1:03:36
  his way up anymore, but he's still one of the scariest strikers I've ever
• 1:03:39
  seen, to be honest with you, and the power is real. Supplements
• 1:03:44
  will be there. I think he knocks him out first round. Yeah,
• 1:03:47
  I had. I initially had this fight as Whittaker underweight, Coasta overweight until
• 1:03:52
  I saw your ownership rejections, which probably is right. Whittaker got lower on
• 1:03:58
  at sixteen to Cosa as one of the higher dogs at twenty three, and
• 1:04:02
  I think that's where it just keeps. There's been a lot of interesting line
• 1:04:06
  movement this one. So Whittaker opened minus three hundred, which I was shot
• 1:04:11
  at, Like he couldn't have looked worse against DDP. Cosa people always do
• 1:04:15
  love So immediately Cosa got by all the way down to like minus two hundred
• 1:04:20
  fights where it was minus one eighty five couple weeks ago. And then man,
• 1:04:25
  ever since this week we had coach or Whittakers started to take more money
• 1:04:30
  now sitting minus two forty five. It was down a two seventy for a
• 1:04:32
  little bit. Cosa got some buyback. Definitely, Like Mark's talking about,
• 1:04:36
  keep an eye on waves in this one, Cosa always shredded, always has
• 1:04:42
  to cut a ton of weights. I worried a little bit about CARDI like
• 1:04:45
  you were talking Tambo, But man, that's a Tory fightest thing. Anybody
• 1:04:49
  Tampa, I said, Tamba, Oh my goodness. A lot of people
• 1:04:55
  Tambo and Big Marley they would call each other their brothers or something. People
• 1:04:59
  call them others king of the beach or king of the desert because they looked
• 1:05:02
  familiar. So I guess somehow I was calling Big Marley Tamball. Well,
• 1:05:08
  what was on it? Do you think Whittaker could wrestle at all on this
• 1:05:11
  one. I think he's allowed to get like two to four takedowns, but
• 1:05:15
  I don't know that he would do enough with him like we almost need him
• 1:05:18
  at his price, You definitely need him. Yeah, So that's what I
• 1:05:21
  don't I just don't like it enough. His price is too high for me.
• 1:05:25
  I don't really see him knocking Coast out, especially early. And I'm
• 1:05:29
  not even like if this was a one round fight, man, I feel
• 1:05:33
  like I kind of favorite Coast a little bit. I feel like the odds
• 1:05:36
  would be closer, and I was looking at the round one odds and Whittaker
• 1:05:41
  has better round one odds as well, which I do not agree with.
• 1:05:45
  Yeah, I don't know. I don't see I want to X out Whitaker,
• 1:05:47
  to be honest with you, I want to. I won't play him
• 1:05:49
  with any of my handbuilds, but I might X amount of one fifty fair
• 1:05:56
  play. Fair play. I'm gonna play some as the lower on fighter in
• 1:05:59
  this fight, and you get some leverage off the Coast, But I totally
• 1:06:01
  do get it. Twelve fights on the car, we got one fight left
• 1:06:04
  again, cooland giving away four memberships. Two will be on the show.
• 1:06:09
  I've already wrote some names down right now, two people are gonna get one
• 1:06:13
  after this next fight. It's a monthly membership at shipanation dot com with a
• 1:06:16
  twenty five dollars UFC ticket. I want to say it's a one hundred k.
• 1:06:20
  It could be two hundred k, Big Marley, you can let me
• 1:06:23
  know what first place is on DraftKings this week. Want two hundred k.
• 1:06:27
  Baby at twenty five, you have a chance at a monthly membership and a
• 1:06:30
  chance at two hundred thousand dollars from cooland off a one entry. So again,
• 1:06:35
  all you have to do is watching live right now in the YouTube chat,
• 1:06:39
  say you're not a member. If you're watching on playback, put in
• 1:06:43
  the YouTube comments hey that you're not a member, why you want one?
• 1:06:45
  And then the significant strikes total from volk into forour you together in the main
• 1:06:50
  event, the closest to will get one. Again, you do have to
• 1:06:54
  put why you think or why you should get a membership, why you would
• 1:06:58
  want one, why you'd use it, et cetera in that as well.
• 1:07:01
  So again we'll pick one. After this last breakdown, we'll pick two people
• 1:07:04
  and then comment that as well below we will pick next week we will look
• 1:07:09
  back at the Commons main event time. Baby, what a great fight.
• 1:07:14
  This is gonna be Alexander the Great Volkanovski taking on Ilia to Poria minus one
• 1:07:18
  twenty five is Vulk plus one oh five is to Poria. This fight right
• 1:07:23
  in the mid tier eighty two hundred and eight k odds in this or ownership
• 1:07:28
  in this one. We have Vulk at forty seven, Ilia at forty eight.
• 1:07:32
  Yeah, I mean I wouldn't be surprised to see ownership like that at
• 1:07:35
  all. See my man Tyler and Chad Ilia season title got poton Folk is
• 1:07:42
  overrated. He's in for a cruel awakening, you know what? On all
• 1:07:45
  this stuff, Marley, I'll throw it to you first, because when you're
• 1:07:47
  over a couple of days ago, that was your lean. Is that still
• 1:07:50
  your lean? Yeah? I'm picking to Poria by knockout. I mean a
• 1:07:57
  lot of it kind of having to do with Vulk up there in Age coming
• 1:08:00
  off of a brutal knockout. It's a guy known to be a grappler up
• 1:08:04
  aweight class though, but he kind of I was listening to. I don't
• 1:08:11
  know if it was a countdown or like Embedded's, and he was talking after
• 1:08:14
  the fight. He was talking to his team like man thought, this was
• 1:08:16
  the best way to do it. Come in here, take the fight,
• 1:08:18
  get back on. There been drinking every day, Just had losing thoughts going
• 1:08:23
  through my mind all the time. And I mean that that can't be better
• 1:08:27
  after you get knocked out cold. So I feel like his mental mindset can't
• 1:08:30
  be the best coming into this. He's back down to his division, which
• 1:08:32
  helps best guy we've ever seen in this division, can wrestle with the best
• 1:08:38
  of them, can strike with the best of them, has power with the
• 1:08:40
  best of them, has the volume with the best of them. But Sporia
• 1:08:44
  has all that all that stuff too, And I've been calling Sporia to be
• 1:08:46
  a future champion. Now's the time it's gonna happen. I have a good
• 1:08:50
  rate. I feel like a hitting these guys who I call a future champion
• 1:08:53
  early in their UFC careers. So that is also, you know, swaying
• 1:08:58
  my pick towards Taporia. But he's two hundred dollars cheaper, so there's just
• 1:09:02
  more possible combinations of lineups I can have with them, So I like them
• 1:09:06
  more for DraftKings for that reason, but I will make a rule. I
• 1:09:11
  want this fight in every one of my lineups because it is the mid range
• 1:09:15
  priced fight of the week and I think that we have a better chance at
• 1:09:17
  the winner scoring one hundred and twenty than we do less than ten x in
• 1:09:21
  this one, and I would expect a hundred plus points from whoever it is.
• 1:09:26
  And I also think this is one of those fights where it could be
• 1:09:28
  fight of the year and that is a stack that ends up making it on
• 1:09:30
  the optimal lineup, so I might even handle a one to three main event
• 1:09:35
  type of stack lineups because I love this fight so much, but give me
• 1:09:40
  Tapuria to knock him out. I hope I'm wrong, and I want this
• 1:09:44
  to be a fight of the year fight because this is just the perfect matchup
• 1:09:47
  on paper where it could be a complete all around MMA game from both sides,
• 1:09:54
  could be a high paced fight. We could get multiple knockdowns from either
• 1:09:57
  side. I just cannot wait for this fight. This is a Pointent's ev
• 1:10:00
  for me worth the pay per view alone. I really won't be too upset
• 1:10:04
  if to Poria lose eithercus I'm a huge Volk fan. I love I love
• 1:10:08
  seeing Volk win always great on the mic. Nothing to not like about Volk,
• 1:10:13
  So I'm just gonna be happy either way, and I hope that going
• 1:10:15
  into the main event, I have two live lineups, and whoever wins,
• 1:10:18
  I'm there. Yeah. I mean, it's definitely the easiest hedge spot.
• 1:10:23
  It's just say somehow you were gonna win two hundred k or even like eighty
• 1:10:28
  k. If Taporia wins like bet VULC and minus one twenty five, the
• 1:10:31
  odds are close enough. It's an easy hedge spot if you want to do
• 1:10:35
  it that way. In terms of my pick, I'm going VOLC. I'm
• 1:10:40
  going Vold. The reason for that, I mean, I think Islam would
• 1:10:43
  be the one SEVENTI champion, So I don't think even Volt came up one
• 1:10:45
  way class. He damn here came up two way classes to fight a monster
• 1:10:49
  at one to fifty five. Why, I think's probably pound for pound right
• 1:10:54
  now. The first fight was insane and became second fight. Islam walked them.
• 1:11:00
  Folk said he was drinking, et cetera. So maybe it wasn't the
• 1:11:01
  best Volt, but we saw him put an absolute great fight against Islam the
• 1:11:05
  first time around, and then you look at what else he's done. Max
• 1:11:09
  Holloway one of the best of all time right here in the featherweight division.
• 1:11:14
  I mean he lit him up three times. I guess one of the fights
• 1:11:15
  was relatively close, but he made Max look human. Absolutely dominates Theia Rodriguez.
• 1:11:23
  I think, yeah, here's a complete stud. He's fought everybody out
• 1:11:26
  there. I just think at the end of the day, he is the
• 1:11:28
  go to the division. He's getting up there in age. Illi is a
• 1:11:31
  young cats. I just think Volk's gonna be steady, the Jab's gonna be
• 1:11:34
  there defensively, sound, rip the body. What do you think for like
• 1:11:39
  takedowns and stuff. Who do you like? I think Volk has better chance
• 1:11:42
  to get in takedowns than Ilia due to the strength advantage. What do you
• 1:11:45
  think or do you think he's gonna be scared of like the grappling from Ilia
• 1:11:48
  that way. I don't even think he'll do that because he did against Artega.
• 1:11:53
  I don't know. Maybe a slide edge to Volk in wrestling, but
• 1:11:57
  poor he is the more dangerous grappler for sure. For sure. Yeah,
• 1:12:00
  I don't know. I got I just love this fight. These are my
• 1:12:02
  two favorite guys in the division and I've just been calling to Poria to be
• 1:12:09
  the champion. But when I was saying that, in my head, I
• 1:12:11
  was thinking vulc will be out. But yeah, at the time that happens,
• 1:12:14
  like, that's a tough fight for Taporia. So I don't know.
• 1:12:17
  I mean, it does seem a little bit weird that it is a straight
• 1:12:20
  pick em type of fight. I would have thought Volcanos could be a little
• 1:12:25
  bit of a favorite, especially from just the name and everything he's done in
• 1:12:28
  the past. So it the line almost looks trappy, but that's the way
• 1:12:32
  I'm already leaning for sure. Got to roll with Tapia. Yeah, I
• 1:12:38
  mean, these guys fight ten times very well to be six four even five,
• 1:12:41
  five five. We'll have a better idea after Saturday night. I'm running
• 1:12:46
  with the man volk Cool who was giving away running with vulcan Poeton Tyler Ryn
• 1:12:51
  with Ilia. It's gonna be a great fight for sure. Though. The
• 1:12:56
  last thing I will say on this one, I'm definitely not gonna have any
• 1:12:58
  stacks. I almost rail do. But mainly the reason for me on this
• 1:13:01
  card is there's just so many Almost all these fights are expected to finish,
• 1:13:06
  and then even the ones that aren't is like Morob Well, Mara doesn't need
• 1:13:11
  to finish random Maverick Andrea Lee like the one fight that's not supposed to It's
• 1:13:15
  still not the craziest thing to think Maravick. Maverick does dominate wrestling. Your
• 1:13:18
  eligius land seven significant strikes per minute wins. The decision is on the optimals,
• 1:13:24
  So they're just I mean, I need I need enough big scores on
• 1:13:28
  this card where I'm not going to get to the fight stack. Personally,
• 1:13:31
  what do we got? Okay? The two winners earlier for the monthly membership
• 1:13:39
  and the twenty five dollars UFC ticket. Shout out to Koland is Travis d'uarte
• 1:13:45
  is number one. Let me pull up Pieta comments. I thought Travis didn't
• 1:13:48
  initially win. He said he has never won. I pulled up the wrong
• 1:13:53
  one. But Travis d'Arte you said the Samfian strikes. Even if you don't
• 1:13:57
  get that, you do get the monthly membership from Coolan and the other one.
• 1:14:03
  We had my man cam see you a couple of times in here,
• 1:14:08
  not too often though. Now to member two hundred and sixties to total significant
• 1:14:12
  strikes, Hey, even if there's only one landed you still do get the
• 1:14:15
  membership. Shout out to you, cool In. All you have to do,
• 1:14:17
  Cam and Travis Duarte take a picture of your YouTube email at fit I'm
• 1:14:24
  gonna to it. Info at ship at nation dot com. Take a picture
• 1:14:30
  of YouTube email info at ship a nation dot com. Let them know monthly
• 1:14:33
  membership twenty five dollars UFC ticket And that is all from Coolan who won two
• 1:14:40
  hundred and fifty thousand dollars. So shout out to you Coolan. Gonna be
• 1:14:43
  a fun card. Big Marley twelve fights in Anaheim, Please please please keep
• 1:14:47
  all twelve fights. Of course, everything will be on the site like always.
• 1:14:53
  I'm gonna be heading over to the Gen Tamba Hoop Show in a sec.
• 1:14:57
  See what they got to say. Rio and I back two hours,
• 1:15:00
  fifteen minutes talking to Big Boy NBA slates final thoughts for the people, Big
• 1:15:04
  Marley, Noah, Man, I can't wait for this one. Have fun
• 1:15:09
  out there with Rio. It's gonna be a blast. I am jealous.
• 1:15:12
  Hopefully you guys get a little bit of blood on your ring side, but
• 1:15:15
  yeah, have fun. Good luck to you, good luck to everybody listening.
• 1:15:17
  Thanks a lot, cool And for giving away those memberships. Congrats to
• 1:15:20
  you for all the success as well. But let's ship it this week and
• 1:15:25
  I can't wait. Yeah, let's shift. Let's get some blood on me.
• 1:15:27
  I will take some blood right there. Cool. Appreciate that as well,
• 1:15:30
  Travis Damarte Cam shout out to you as the winners. I'll tid it
• 1:15:34
  over to the Golf Show. Hit that like bun on the way out.
• 1:15:36
  Much appreciated. Head over to Shipping nation dot com. Good luck everybody this
• 1:15:42
  week for Big Marley, I'm titled Town Happy Good Day. Still hands had
• 1:16:06
  still hands handing, still with anything, and then still