Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 16 - 4/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 16 - 4/4/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello and welcome to episode 16 of the All Systems.
• 0:23
  Go Sports Betting Podcast Powered by Rhythm I'm your host,
• 0:28
  Josh. Applebaum.
• 0:32
  What's going on everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday we are
• 0:35
  one day. Closer to the weekend and we
• 0:38
  kept. Our winning ways going last.
• 0:40
  Night guys. Second straight winning.
• 0:41
  Day on the. Pod you love to.
• 0:42
  See it and we nearly. Got a sweep?
• 0:44
  I went five and one plus. 2.47 units.
• 0:48
  Which was a great showing. Especially in baseball, because
• 0:50
  baseball been a bit of a slow start, Swept the table
• 0:53
  yesterday. Ran the table whatever you want
• 0:55
  to call it, four and O. With our MLB bets.
• 0:57
  Had a good win with the Red Sox there early in the day and.
• 1:00
  We got a little dicey there, they.
• 1:01
  Won one to nothing. But came through for the team
• 1:03
  with a good steam move the Yankees.
• 1:05
  Were an epic back and. Forth, remember the Yankees had
• 1:07
  that. Late steam, which is always so.
• 1:09
  Important really doesn't matter what the sport.
• 1:11
  Is when you get to game day, you get within the.
• 1:13
  Last hour half hour 20. Minutes of a game starting.
• 1:16
  You want to be with that late movement because.
• 1:18
  That's when limits are raised. Biggest bets come in, the most
• 1:20
  informed and sharpest bets come in so.
• 1:23
  Yankees really weren't on my. Radar to to begin, you know,
• 1:25
  yesterday. Morning.
• 1:26
  But they became a blueprint play because that late Steam, again,
• 1:30
  wasn't easy. They had to win in extras, but a
• 1:32
  good. Win there by the Yanks 6 to 5
• 1:34
  Padres. Held on.
• 1:35
  Three to two win. Remember, the Padres were a hold
• 1:37
  your nose and go with the. Sharp line move.
• 1:39
  Trust the. Market because Padres hadn't
• 1:41
  looked great recently, but they had that.
• 1:42
  Good sharp steam move. Or they like -130?
• 1:44
  5 up to like. I think -1. 55 something like
• 1:47
  that. And then?
• 1:48
  Lastly, the cubbies Cubbies came through for the team.
• 1:51
  Now that one got a little bit too dicey for me.
• 1:54
  Because the Cubs, I want to say, had.
• 1:55
  An 8 to 2 lead. Something like that in the 7th
• 1:58
  inning. Coughed it up, ended up.
• 1:59
  Tying the game. Then up coming back and scoring
• 2:01
  a run in the eighth and winning the game 9 to 8, and I saw a lot
• 2:04
  of people on Twitter crying about how they had.
• 2:06
  The run line. -1, 1/2, which I don't blame you.
• 2:09
  You know, you could have. Here's the thing.
• 2:10
  This becomes a philosophical debate.
• 2:12
  You know run line versus going with just the typical.
• 2:16
  Money line here. Because you do have the spread
• 2:18
  in baseball, you know you can take a big favorite down, cut
• 2:20
  them in, cut them in half. Almost get a better price.
• 2:23
  But then they got to win by two or more.
• 2:25
  I liken this a little. Bit to the NHL?
• 2:27
  When you have opportunities to. Play a full game.
• 2:30
  Money line or you can do like. Regulation 60 minutes.
• 2:33
  Like you'll get a better. Number on the. 60 minutes but
• 2:35
  then also. You know you lose the.
• 2:36
  Opportunity to win the game in a shootout or overtime, so and it
• 2:40
  was a tough beat if you had the the minus. 1 1/2 you know that
• 2:42
  was around. Like, even money.
• 2:44
  But This is why I. Go money line in these.
• 2:45
  Situations. Because again, if you're if.
• 2:48
  You're going run line. You could have.
• 2:50
  A terrible bad beat. Like that, where your bullpen
• 2:52
  gives it up. And you win by one, but you
• 2:54
  don't. Cover the 1 1/2.
• 2:55
  But either way, beat the. Closing line on the.
• 2:56
  Cubbies. We got them like -195 I.
• 2:58
  Think they close like minus. 2:20 So nice little four and O
• 3:02
  in Major League Baseball then we.
• 3:03
  Added a win in NHL. So nice little streak here we
• 3:06
  got. Going to the NHL 5?
• 3:07
  Nothing Dallas Stars. Get it done for.
• 3:09
  The team. Remember that was just like.
• 3:11
  VGK as a good team at home. At a short price, but then of
• 3:14
  course, guys. NBA is driving me nuts.
• 3:17
  I feel like I haven't won an. NBA Bet in.
• 3:18
  Years and it just becomes. More comical the one.
• 3:21
  Loser yesterday that kept us from a sweep kept us from
• 3:24
  busting out the brooms? Was that Cab Suns over?
• 3:27
  226 1/2 beat the closing line some books.
• 3:29
  Closed 227. But it landed on what was it 223
• 3:34
  and we only. Need a few points, They're late
• 3:36
  and then because. The Suns are up so big they
• 3:38
  called off the dogs. They put in their scrubs and the
• 3:40
  scrubs couldn't do a damn. Thing there to put the.
• 3:42
  Ball in the bucket, so NBA continues to be a bit
• 3:45
  frustrating here, but either way, guys.
• 3:47
  Second straight winning day five and one plus. 2.47 units
• 3:51
  yesterday after a nice 4-2 and one.
• 3:53
  Plus 0.93. Unit day on Tuesday.
• 3:55
  So again, I always make this comment here but.
• 3:58
  Sports betting's hard. It's always a challenge.
• 4:00
  And if you want to be. The most successful sports?
• 4:02
  Better that you can. Be #1 you need.
• 4:04
  Passion you need to have. Dedication you need to have.
• 4:06
  Commitment. But you also got.
• 4:08
  To embrace the challenge, the. Challenge of when you have.
• 4:10
  Two straight winning days. Make it three straight.
• 4:12
  Challenge of. Remember, we had a bad.
• 4:14
  Monday Bounce. Back and have a better Tuesday,
• 4:16
  which is what we did. So always.
• 4:17
  Embrace that challenge. And remember I.
• 4:19
  Always see that people tweet me like.
• 4:20
  Let's crush the books. Today, let's destroy the books.
• 4:23
  Now remember. We're contrarian betters when
• 4:25
  the. Books do well.
• 4:26
  We do well, so we're. Trying to beat the Lions beat
• 4:28
  our. Opponents not always trying to
• 4:30
  beat the books because. Again, we're on the side.
• 4:32
  Of the house which? Is a long term smart strategy.
• 4:34
  But anyway, after a second. Straight winning day, guys,
• 4:37
  let's turn our attention to a big Thursday.
• 4:39
  I have a 5 pack of sweats for I got. 2.
• 4:42
  Major League Baseball games, including.
• 4:43
  One that's coming up here. Shortly so.
• 4:45
  Lead off the pod breaking on that one.
• 4:47
  Also have a play for. You in the NIT Championship?
• 4:49
  Game That's right, we got. One more opportunity.
• 4:51
  Are we going to bet? On Robbie Avila or against?
• 4:54
  Robbie Avila or Are. We going to go?
• 4:55
  Total. I do have a bet here.
• 4:57
  Seton Hall, Indiana State. For the NIT championship
• 4:59
  tonight. Also have a bet in the NBA.
• 5:01
  I'm not going to mess around with.
• 5:02
  Totals I got PTSD for. My last few totals in the NBA,
• 5:06
  but we will play here on a side. And then we're going to finish
• 5:09
  up in the NHL with a nice. Rest first tired system match.
• 5:12
  Hopefully they continue our winning streak here in the NHL,
• 5:14
  so. Overall A5 pack.
• 5:16
  Two MLB, one NIT. One NBA and one NHL.
• 5:20
  So without further ado, let's dive right?
• 5:22
  In see if we can extend our winning.
• 5:24
  Streak to three days. Knock on wood, because yes, I am
• 5:27
  superstitious. Let's go.
• 5:29
  Right to Major League Baseball. No, MLB Today little bit.
• 5:31
  Disappointing because there's only five games or six games
• 5:34
  here. It's a pretty small slate, but
• 5:36
  couple. Games that caught my eye. 1st.
• 5:38
  One is an early game. 4:15 PM Eastern Time, Miami.
• 5:42
  And Saint Louis now. This one's been interesting.
• 5:44
  Because it's kind of been back and forth.
• 5:46
  The lines going away. From me a little.
• 5:48
  Bit, but I'm going to dance with the one who brung me.
• 5:50
  I always make this joke. Here.
• 5:51
  But you know the Sadie Hawkins Dance in 7th grade?
• 5:54
  If little Samantha. Invites you to that dance.
• 5:56
  You better. Dance with her when they play
• 5:58
  Stairway to Heaven, The Last Dance of the Night as You're.
• 6:00
  Dancing like mummies with your. Hands on each other's shoulders.
• 6:02
  At least, that's what we. Did at Mount Greylock.
• 6:05
  Middle school and high school. But anyway, what that means is
• 6:08
  when you make a. Bet I'm going to stick with it.
• 6:09
  You know I'm not going to bet out of it.
• 6:10
  I'm not going to bet the other side I don't love.
• 6:13
  The fact that. This line is moving.
• 6:14
  Against us a little. Bit like spoiler.
• 6:15
  I'm on Saint Louis, but. There has been a.
• 6:17
  Little bit of buyback. On Miami.
• 6:19
  Late afternoon, but I'm. Going to stick with the
• 6:20
  Cardinals here. I'm going to give you a couple
• 6:22
  angles why the Cardinals are. To me the play to to go with
• 6:25
  today. So the Marlins, First off.
• 6:28
  They are O and seven on the air. They.
• 6:29
  Lost all. Seven games, seven game
• 6:31
  homestand, They're tied with the Mets.
• 6:32
  Mets are, I think 3:00 to 3:00 in the 9th, right?
• 6:34
  Now, but you know, will the Mets win or lose if they lose then?
• 6:38
  You know Miami will. Still be one of two.
• 6:39
  Loss winless teams if Miami. If the Mets win.
• 6:43
  Miami will be the only team. Who hasn't won a game?
• 6:45
  This year. Anyway, that's a whole side
• 6:46
  note, Cardinals, by the way, 3:00 and 4:00.
• 6:49
  Just took two. Or three against the fathers.
• 6:50
  Remember. We had a big one yesterday with
• 6:52
  the Padres because the Saint Louis Cardinals lost that one,
• 6:55
  which is good for us. But anyway, I'm going to put a
• 6:57
  lot of. Stock into the pitching match up
• 6:59
  here. We have Ryan Weathers.
• 7:01
  A lefty going for? The Miami.
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  Marlins, Ryan Weathers is O. And one. 6.75 ERA.
• 7:08
  Saint Louis is going with Lance Lynn, the veteran.
• 7:10
  Righty here, the big man. O&O. 0.00 ERA now.
• 7:14
  What do we see across the market here?
• 7:16
  Well, this game. Opened at around Cardinals -145.
• 7:20
  It got all the way up to. Cardinals -155.
• 7:23
  So I bet this earlier today. I think I got a -, 1. 50 and I'm
• 7:26
  like OK. Little CLV and with the.
• 7:28
  Sharp line move but. There has been some buyback on
• 7:31
  Miami. So a lot of the.
• 7:32
  Cardinals that you know got as high as -150.
• 7:35
  Five. They're down to minus. 1:45, you
• 7:37
  know, minus. 1:40 So there has been a bite.
• 7:39
  At the Apple on Miami. To drop this number now, if you
• 7:41
  haven't bet it yet, you're. Getting a better number to take
• 7:43
  St. Louis, now you're.
• 7:44
  Getting a better number. Because we have to admit.
• 7:46
  There was some respect. To money that looked to.
• 7:48
  Have gone with Miami here. But I'm sick with the Cardinals
• 7:51
  Cardinals here. Number one, have the much.
• 7:54
  Better bats, They're. Hitting 212 versus.
• 7:55
  Only 197 for Miami. They haven't hit.
• 7:58
  Yet hopefully that continues here tonight.
• 8:00
  Also, better pitching with the Cardinals.
• 8:02
  Team ERA four point. Five O versus 6 point O 4 and
• 8:05
  I'm looking at the two starters here with the advantage
• 8:07
  hopefully to Lance Lynn. Lance.
• 8:09
  Lynn gave up. No runs.
• 8:10
  Over 4 innings in his first start against the Dodgers.
• 8:13
  Dodgers. Obviously a great.
• 8:14
  Line up on the flip. Side if you look at Weathers,
• 8:18
  weathers got semi lit. Up in his first start.
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  Weathers ended up going. Only four innings gave.
• 8:24
  Up three runs now St. Louis also has value as.
• 8:27
  A non division. Favorite.
• 8:29
  It's not the non. Division Rd. favorite.
• 8:30
  Off a win, which you know cash with the Red Sox the last couple
• 8:33
  days. Would it be just?
• 8:34
  A classic non division favorite. Two teams, two different
• 8:36
  divisions. Lack of familiarity.
• 8:38
  Really. Benefits.
• 8:39
  The team the better team Cream rises to the top in these spots.
• 8:43
  Also, if you look at. One angle here.
• 8:46
  This is the Cardinals home. Opener.
• 8:47
  So Saint Louis and their last four home.
• 8:49
  Openers 3 and 1. So again, the line has.
• 8:52
  Dipped a little bit back. Toward Miami.
• 8:53
  But I'm going to stick with the Saint Louis.
• 8:54
  Cardinals, here I got a you know, a bad. -150 ish.
• 8:57
  Now you're looking if you want to play it around a -, 140. 5
• 9:00
  But I'm going to stick with St. Louis Let's Go cards, hopefully
• 9:03
  to start the day. Around -140.
• 9:05
  Five at this point. Next part of the day.
• 9:08
  Luckily, this one hasn't had any.
• 9:09
  Buyback one sided. Steam in favor of the Kansas
• 9:12
  City Royals, baby. So let's go Royals.
• 9:15
  This one here tonight 7. 40 game.
• 9:17
  It's your only late game here of the night.
• 9:19
  Chicago White Sox. Visiting the Kansas City Royals.
• 9:22
  White Sox one and four. But they did just have a big win
• 9:25
  against the Braves. They won three to two the other
• 9:27
  day. This that was the second game of
• 9:29
  the series. Then the third one got rained
• 9:30
  out. But they were a big. +1 60 Home
• 9:32
  dog they beat. The mighty Braves.
• 9:34
  In that one. That was their first win of the
• 9:35
  year. On the other side, the Royals
• 9:37
  2:00 and 4:00. But I don't know if anyone took
• 9:39
  the. Royals yesterday.
• 9:40
  You know, if you did, that was a tough.
• 9:42
  One they had a lead late. They blew it.
• 9:43
  Coughed it up. The Orioles had to come back
• 9:45
  when if you took the Orioles, obviously you're happy about
• 9:47
  that. I had no action either.
• 9:48
  Way but KC. They had a they are.
• 9:53
  Sending. To the bump here tonight.
• 9:54
  Seth. Lugo who's O&O?
• 9:56
  0.00 ERA. He'll be opposed by Mike Soroka,
• 10:00
  remember? He was good at one point.
• 10:02
  With the Braves and he got hurt and he's been banged up for a
• 10:04
  couple years now. Oh, and O 7. .2 OERA.
• 10:08
  This one's pretty cut and dry. Big steam in favor of the
• 10:11
  Kansas. City Royals.
• 10:11
  The Royals. Opened around a -, 155 -, 1. 60
• 10:15
  home. Favorite We've now seen the
• 10:17
  Royals get steamed up. All the way to -175 I see one
• 10:20
  book at. -180. So pretty consistent movement.
• 10:23
  Overnight, early morning, early afternoon, all in One Direction
• 10:26
  toward Kansas City now. Casey.
• 10:29
  What I like. About them a couple angles here
• 10:31
  one is the better. Team batting average.
• 10:33
  They're hitting 2:30. 8 doesn't sound great.
• 10:35
  But the White Sox? Are only hitting. 181 and
• 10:37
  they've only scored. 11 runs, that is I.
• 10:39
  Believe the 2nd fewest in the Major League Baseball.
• 10:42
  Only the. Mets have scored.
• 10:43
  Fewer, meanwhile, the Royals. Have scored 24.
• 10:46
  Runs, so better offense. Here with the Royals also.
• 10:48
  Better team pitching staff. Nothing huge.
• 10:50
  But 3.4 O. ERA versus 4.2 O for the White
• 10:54
  Sox and then I'm. Going to look at again these two
• 10:56
  starting. Pitcher Seth Lugo, who the
• 10:58
  Royals signed as a free. Agent in the offseason gave up
• 11:01
  no runs in six innings. In his first start against the
• 11:03
  Twins, meanwhile, Soroka gave up four runs over 5 innings in his
• 11:07
  first start against the. Tigers.
• 11:08
  So I'm I. Want to back Kansas City?
• 11:10
  Here again with the better pitcher on the bump now.
• 11:13
  If you also look at the total here, did fall. 8 1/2 down to 8.
• 11:19
  And if you look at. Kind of a.
• 11:23
  Angle here with a what I want to say.
• 11:25
  Kind of a favorite. With a low total, that's what I
• 11:27
  meant to. Say correlative betting.
• 11:29
  So the total here is 8. Now it is juiced up like it may
• 11:31
  get. Back up to 8 1/2, but it did
• 11:32
  fall early and we have seen the White Sox.
• 11:35
  Three, one and one to the under. Royals 3/2.
• 11:37
  And one to the under. I noticed some under money only
• 11:40
  at 8 and a. Half, though, I think that's so
• 11:41
  important in baseball. Like if you can't.
• 11:43
  Get that triggering hook Like if I can't get the under 8 1/2,
• 11:46
  it's down to 8. I'm probably not going to play
• 11:48
  the 8. Because if it's a, you know.
• 11:50
  6:00 to 2:00. Game 7 to one game, whatever the
• 11:52
  case may be, I push the wise guys who got the hook lost.
• 11:56
  But either way guys this. Is a Kansas City play for me?
• 11:58
  Pretty cut and dry. Big, sharp steam.
• 12:00
  No buyback. Better starting pitcher here,
• 12:02
  hopefully with Lugo, as well as a spot to back the Royals here
• 12:06
  at home. Hopefully if you.
• 12:08
  Did play him yesterday Some revenge after blowing it to the
• 12:10
  Orioles. But I'm going Kansas City.
• 12:12
  Shop around. Guys, I got Kansas City a little
• 12:14
  earlier today. Round -170.
• 12:17
  Then upwards of around minus. 180 at this point.
• 12:20
  So Saint Louis. Cardinals, Kansas City Royals.
• 12:22
  That's what I'm sweating here. Tonight and Major League
• 12:24
  Baseball. Now let's go over to.
• 12:26
  Some college hoops. We have the final.
• 12:29
  Game of the NIT, the NIT Championship game, so between
• 12:32
  Seton Hall and Indiana State. 7:00 game here tonight.
• 12:35
  Now I'm going to give you kind of my thoughts on the side.
• 12:38
  I didn't end up playing the side I went with a total, but.
• 12:41
  My thoughts on the side real quick.
• 12:42
  I was looking. Toward the points with Seton
• 12:44
  Hall, Indiana State did open minus.
• 12:46
  Three. They got up to -3 1/2 but.
• 12:48
  If you can get a. Hook on the 3 1/2 with Seton
• 12:50
  Hall. Ken Palm only has a losing by 1,
• 12:53
  so that's a little. Bit of actionable value there,
• 12:54
  but. Last time this.
• 12:55
  Happened. I bet against Indiana.
• 12:56
  State. The Utah was the same thing
• 12:58
  Indiana State won by. 10 So I don't want to bet against Robbie
• 13:01
  Avila. It is a short number.
• 13:03
  It will be played at Hinkle Field House, which is.
• 13:06
  Kind of a de facto. Homecourt for Indiana State, but
• 13:09
  I was. Thinking about maybe Seton?
• 13:11
  Hall plus 3 1/2. They're a little bit contrarian.
• 13:12
  They're only getting 41% of bets a little bit more.
• 13:15
  Money. And if you get the hook, it does
• 13:17
  look like it may be. Coming back down to three.
• 13:19
  So, Eileen Seaton. But here's what I'm going to do.
• 13:21
  I'm going to go with the over here.
• 13:22
  I like the total. More than I do with the side.
• 13:24
  So I'm going to go. Over 159 ideally you can find a
• 13:29
  150. Nine.
• 13:29
  There are some 159 1/2's out there.
• 13:31
  I don't think there's any more 158 1/2 shop around, but I found
• 13:35
  it over 159. That's my bet.
• 13:37
  Here. So first thing I noticed is that
• 13:39
  this total is on the rise. It opened at 158 1/2 again, now
• 13:42
  up to 1. 59. Some books 150. 9 1/2.
• 13:45
  Juiced up, so we're. We're moving.
• 13:46
  Upwards we have a great. Bet split toward the Seton.
• 13:49
  Hall, Indiana State NIT Championship.
• 13:51
  Over only 68% of bets. Are going over.
• 13:55
  But it accounts for 81% of the money, so kind of.
• 13:58
  Slight public, but also heavy sharp action.
• 14:01
  Good low bets. Higher dollars bet split.
• 14:03
  Now in particular NIT overs. They have been.
• 14:06
  Profitable this year, profitable historically.
• 14:08
  This year NIT. Overs are 17 and 1357%, you
• 14:13
  know, not 90% or. Anything crazy like that, but it
• 14:15
  has been profitable. To root for these higher
• 14:17
  scoring. Games now, Ken Palm I mentioned
• 14:20
  he has. Indiana State.
• 14:21
  Winning by one, which is why I was intrigued by Seton Hall 3
• 14:23
  1/2. But he's got Indiana State
• 14:25
  winning 81 to 80. So add those two numbers up.
• 14:28
  That's 160. One again if we're.
• 14:30
  Getting an over one. 59. It's a little bit of.
• 14:33
  Actionable. Value I'm also going to.
• 14:34
  Bank on the fact that we have two pretty good.
• 14:36
  Offenses here, Indiana State. It's actually 12th.
• 14:39
  In the country and offensive. Efficiency Seton Hall is 60. 9th
• 14:43
  effective field goal percentage. Indiana State 60% that's.
• 14:46
  Number one in all of college. Basketball. 3 point shooting 38.
• 14:50
  Percent Indiana State 34%. Seton Hall, so they can.
• 14:52
  Both shoot the three. Then also this is big, make your
• 14:56
  free throws. Obviously if we're on and over,
• 14:58
  you get fouled. Getting the bonus we.
• 15:00
  Want to make these? Free throws stop the clock.
• 15:02
  Add more points to the. Scoreboard.
• 15:04
  These are two of the. Best free throw?
• 15:05
  Shooting teams in the country. Indiana State is 880.
• 15:09
  Percent from the free throw stripe.
• 15:11
  Seton Hall is 78th. Or sorry, 78%?
• 15:14
  So both good angles. Here close to 80%.
• 15:17
  The other angle here is. You know, neutral.
• 15:18
  Courts. I get nervous taking.
• 15:19
  Overs, you know, lack of. Familiarity.
• 15:21
  Don't know the sight lines, yadda yadda yadda.
• 15:23
  Typically, neutral court unders are the way to go.
• 15:26
  But Hinkle Field House Where? This game is going to.
• 15:28
  Be played. This is the home stadium of the
• 15:29
  Butler. Bulldogs.
• 15:31
  It's the same stadium that these teams.
• 15:33
  Just played the semi finals in so it's their second game.
• 15:36
  At Hinkle Field House, so I think that hopefully diminishes
• 15:39
  or hopefully. Eliminates some of that neutral
• 15:41
  court under angle and both. Teams, you know Seton Hall ended
• 15:45
  up beating who? Who?
• 15:47
  I forgot who he played. Oh, they played.
• 15:48
  Georgia got a big win, scored a bunch there.
• 15:50
  Indiana State put. Up 100 at Hinkle.
• 15:52
  Field House the other night, obviously against Utah.
• 15:56
  So same. Field House.
• 15:58
  Hopefully some. Familiarity there.
• 15:59
  And then lastly, Indiana State's offense.
• 16:01
  Their last ten games, they're averaging 87 points per game.
• 16:05
  And then of. Course we have the short.
• 16:06
  Spread so short, spread over. You know this is a. 3 point, 3
• 16:11
  1/2 point. Spread in favor of.
• 16:12
  Indiana State Short. Spreads good for an over.
• 16:14
  Because hopefully it's back and forth, it's competitive, maybe
• 16:17
  you get. Overtime, obviously, if we're
• 16:19
  on. A big spread of.
• 16:20
  One team's favored by 10 or 12 or 15.
• 16:23
  We lean a little more under. Because get up big, take your
• 16:25
  foot off the gas. Just, you know, end the game.
• 16:27
  Stop scoring but short spread system matches.
• 16:30
  Well, so I entertain Seton. Hall.
• 16:32
  If you if you like. Indiana State money line?
• 16:34
  I'm not going to argue. With you with either, either.
• 16:37
  But I'm going. To bypass that.
• 16:38
  Spread or side? And I'm going to go.
• 16:39
  With the total I'm going. Championship game NIT Seton
• 16:42
  Hall, Indiana State. Over. 159 Now over to the NBA.
• 16:48
  Can we win an NBA? Bet.
• 16:50
  I tell you what guys. NBA is so frustrating to me.
• 16:52
  It's the hardest sport to consistently.
• 16:54
  Win at even if you. Just dodged the bullets of, you
• 16:56
  know, you know, bankroll. Or not.
• 16:58
  Bankroll management but load. Management not knowing.
• 17:01
  Whether guys going to play or not and then just again I.
• 17:03
  Think it's just one? Of the hardest and most.
• 17:04
  Unpredictable sports. Anyway, I ain't quitting, I'm.
• 17:07
  Not going to freak. Out that I've struggled in the
• 17:09
  NBA recently. I'm I want to get.
• 17:10
  Back. In the green in the.
• 17:12
  NBA So I found one game that caught my eye today.
• 17:14
  It's a late night match up Nuggets and Clippers. 10:00
• 17:17
  tonight. Maybe it's AI?
• 17:19
  Don't know Western Conference finals.
• 17:20
  Preview, but this is a. Match up here Nuggets at.
• 17:24
  Clippers and. I'm going to go with the Nuggets
• 17:26
  on the money line. I'm going to have the.
• 17:27
  Nuggets here hopefully to win this game.
• 17:29
  The Nuggets open this game at around a three-point or 3 1/2.
• 17:33
  Point Rd. favorite. We've.
• 17:34
  Seen the Nuggets? Now gets steamed up to -4 and
• 17:37
  some. Books are juiced up.
• 17:38
  Nuggets -4 at -1. 15 like it? May go to 4 1/2 so.
• 17:42
  It's pretty much been one sided movement.
• 17:44
  In favor of Denver, now one. Angle here that I like is Kawhi
• 17:48
  Leonard is out. So he will not be playing for
• 17:49
  the. Clippers You'll get the
• 17:51
  percentages here on the spread. 73% bets. 87% of the money is on
• 17:56
  Denver. So public bet split, but a lot
• 17:58
  of sharp. Action Money line 76% bets 82%
• 18:02
  money. You'll get Rd.
• 18:04
  Favorites, Rd. Favorites straight.
• 18:05
  Up in the NBA this year are three O 3.
• 18:08
  And 1:30. Two that is a 70.
• 18:10
  Percent win rate. Also, we have some Rd.
• 18:12
  Referees here, so all three refs.
• 18:15
  Here are good to Rd. team, CJ Washington, Josh Tibben, Aaron
• 18:19
  Smith. In particular, Washington is
• 18:20
  like 55% against. The spread to the road.
• 18:23
  Team Tibben's right there behind.
• 18:24
  Him. We have 3 Rd. reps, Hopefully
• 18:26
  that will be. To our advantage.
• 18:28
  Also, I'm going to talk. About motivation here, it's, you
• 18:31
  know, toward the. Tail end of the season.
• 18:33
  By the way. Who's holding a Yokich?
• 18:34
  MVP ticket I got. Him plus 125.
• 18:36
  I think he's -1000 now. As well as our Maxi tickets
• 18:39
  looking good as well. But any for what?
• 18:41
  Was it 6 or most improved, but anyway.
• 18:44
  Motivation Denver is tied with. Minnesota for the number one
• 18:48
  spot in the West and. OKC is only one game.
• 18:50
  Back of Denver, So Denver. You know they've won the title,
• 18:54
  they want to win it. Again, you want.
• 18:55
  Homecourt you want it to go through?
• 18:56
  Denver, you want that? Advantage of the altitude.
• 18:59
  In the rarefied air. So I think that is a.
• 19:01
  Rallying cry here, hopefully. For Denver to take this game
• 19:03
  seriously and win this game. And and try to clinch that
• 19:06
  number one seed in the West so they can have homecourt.
• 19:08
  Throughout now, Clippers, obviously.
• 19:10
  They're motivated, too. They're. 5 1/2 games back.
• 19:13
  Of Denver for the first spot there.
• 19:15
  But they don't really have much wiggle room either.
• 19:18
  Way they're pretty. Comfortably in their spot.
• 19:20
  And then also here's a. Little bet against for the.
• 19:22
  Clippers The. Clippers are playing their first
• 19:24
  game back after a 4 game road trip.
• 19:27
  So it's always tough. You know you.
• 19:29
  Hear it all the time. First game back after a long
• 19:31
  road trip. You finally get back in your own
• 19:33
  bed, but then also you got to deal with, you know, the.
• 19:36
  Family with deal with friends. You got to get people tickets.
• 19:39
  You know, you exhale. Because you're home and then.
• 19:41
  You know you. Got to play a tough Denver team,
• 19:43
  so. I want to bet against, if I can,
• 19:45
  teams that are making their, you know, their first game home
• 19:47
  after a long Rd. Trip which is the spot here to
• 19:50
  bet against the. Clippers.
• 19:51
  So add it all up, guys. I'm going Denver money.
• 19:53
  Line to win this game. Shop around.
• 19:55
  I got the nugs at -170. Then last by the night to.
• 20:00
  See if we can continue. Our Hot streak tier.
• 20:03
  In the NHL, we'll look toward a match up tonight.
• 20:06
  I'm going to bank on one of the best teams in hockey and.
• 20:08
  Hopefully bounce back. And win a game.
• 20:10
  I'm talking about the Colorado. ABS.
• 20:12
  Baby, let's go Avalanche. Avalanche are on the road at
• 20:15
  Minnesota tonight. It's an 8:00 game now.
• 20:18
  Avalanche here. Have a good.
• 20:19
  Sharp steam move I saw. Most books open.
• 20:21
  I saw some openers that were all over the.
• 20:23
  Place but most. Of the openers from books.
• 20:25
  That I respect where as low as Colorado. -140 -, 150 now
• 20:30
  Colorado. 'S all the way up.
• 20:31
  To -160 - 1. 65 S Good sharp. Steam in favor of the.
• 20:36
  ABS. Now the ABS are.
• 20:37
  Getting 88. Percent of bets, 96% of the
• 20:40
  money again. Public play, but remember.
• 20:42
  Hockey isn't a public bet sport. We talked about the last couple
• 20:45
  days with BGK and with. Dallas they were getting, you
• 20:48
  know what was it, 70% of bets. But 70% Hockey is much different
• 20:52
  from 70% in the NFLI never want to be on a 70% side in the NFL.
• 20:56
  Because that's so public and most heavily bet public sport
• 20:59
  hockey. It doesn't really worry me too
• 21:00
  much. If I'm on that public.
• 21:02
  Side because. It's a lower bet, sport.
• 21:03
  And a lot of those bettors. And the majority are.
• 21:05
  Probably wise guys or wise gals who know the NHL and know how to
• 21:08
  bet it. But anyway, low bets, higher
• 21:11
  dollars. Now we have a rest first.
• 21:12
  TIRED System match in favor. Of Colorado.
• 21:14
  Colorado last played. On the 1st of April, On Monday.
• 21:18
  You had the Minnesota. Wild last play on the. 2nd So
• 21:22
  again wild had one day off but. You had two days off for
• 21:25
  Colorado. So one day rest advantage for
• 21:27
  Colorado mentioned. A good team who struggled.
• 21:29
  Recently, Colorado has lost. Three of their last.
• 21:31
  Four games, so. If you're a proud.
• 21:33
  Team you want to? Get back on track and of course
• 21:36
  you know. Playoffs right around the
• 21:37
  corner, so you want to play your best hockey going into the post
• 21:39
  season, so. Hopefully that's an added
• 21:40
  motivation. For Colorado to get back.
• 21:42
  To their winning ways. Now I'm going to bank on
• 21:45
  Colorado's offense and their special teams offensively.
• 21:47
  Colorado, we all know. Incredible goal scorers.
• 21:51
  Probably. I got to double check the odds
• 21:54
  here, but I want to say Mckinnon's your favorite minus.
• 21:56
  200 something like that. For the Hart Trophy.
• 21:59
  But Colorado is averaging 3.7 goals per game.
• 22:03
  Only three for Minnesota. Colorado has the better power.
• 22:06
  Play 25. Percent versus 21% and the
• 22:09
  better. PK Penalty kill 82.
• 22:11
  Percent versus 74%. Now the goalie.
• 22:13
  Match up tonight. It's probably going to be, I
• 22:16
  believe. Justice A Noonan.
• 22:18
  Probably butchered this, kids. Name, but he's been really good
• 22:21
  2.2. Six goals against 927 save
• 22:23
  percentage go up against Phillip Gustafson for Minnesota.
• 22:27
  Three O 4. Goals against 900 save
• 22:29
  percentage. So a Noonan has been better than
• 22:32
  Gustafson just numbers wise and then also system.
• 22:36
  Match a rested Rd. favorite. In the division.
• 22:39
  So two teams, same division. Take that.
• 22:41
  Rested Rd. favorite at least. Two days off from their.
• 22:42
  Last game that is 79 and 30. 860. 8% with a 12.
• 22:46
  Percent ROI this year, so it's been a good angle.
• 22:49
  Also Motivation Colorado. You want to play well and get
• 22:52
  back to your winning ways. They're five points behind
• 22:54
  Dallas for the number one seed out West.
• 22:56
  They want, you know, that's. Almost good to say.
• 22:58
  Homecourt. Home ice, of course.
• 23:00
  Look at the wild. They're kind of on the outside
• 23:02
  looking in. They're eight games back or,
• 23:04
  sorry, eight points. Back of the last Wild.
• 23:05
  Card spot and they only. Have eight games.
• 23:07
  Left to play so you can say Minnesota's desperate, but.
• 23:10
  Are they on the outside looking in?
• 23:12
  Yes. They are Colorado.
• 23:13
  Trying to get that one seed, so hopefully that's a motivation or
• 23:16
  a, you know, rallying cry here for tonight.
• 23:18
  But either way, guys, good sharp.
• 23:20
  Steam on a great team that struggled a bit.
• 23:22
  You know, if they're riding high.
• 23:23
  Colorado's probably closer to -200 here, so.
• 23:26
  I'm going to go with the ABS. Hopefully to get it done.
• 23:28
  With a good sharp steam move. Shop around.
• 23:30
  I got the ABS at -160. 5. So that about does it for
• 23:36
  episode? 16 of the all.
• 23:38
  Systems go. Sports Betting Podcast Powered
• 23:40
  by. Rhythm now reminder, of course,
• 23:42
  if you enjoy this pod. And I'm enjoying this pod.
• 23:45
  Because I tell you what, guys, it was a bit of a.
• 23:48
  Leap of faith. I always wanted to kind of, you
• 23:49
  know. Branch off through my own thing,
• 23:51
  create my own pod, and I was able to do it.
• 23:53
  With the help of a lot of great people who have my back.
• 23:56
  So you you are, you know who. You are basically, but anyway,
• 23:59
  this pod is a relatively. You know, new Pod?
• 24:01
  It's a baby. Only episode. 16 Now, at this
• 24:04
  point, I love the direction that we're going.
• 24:05
  I feel like we're getting sharper and better each.
• 24:07
  Day. But here's the thing.
• 24:09
  I need you to help me to kind of you know.
• 24:11
  Publicize and promote this podcast so.
• 24:13
  If you have a buddy or a friend or a family member who's into
• 24:16
  sports betting and wants to learn more and make sharp.
• 24:19
  Bets and not bet. Based on their gut instinct and
• 24:21
  bias. I was also reading about How you
• 24:23
  know podcast. The most successful podcasts are
• 24:26
  between like 20 and 30 minutes. So, you know, previously I'd
• 24:29
  I've been doing podcasts for, you know, over 10 years.
• 24:32
  At this point I would. Do like, you know, marathon 45
• 24:34
  minute pods. Hour long pods?
• 24:36
  No. Quick and dirty.
• 24:37
  You know, don't want. To kill you with information
• 24:39
  but. We want to have a.
• 24:40
  Consistent daily. Breakdown of sharp bets either
• 24:43
  way any my whole point of saying this is.
• 24:46
  Refer the pod to a. Friend, but if you really want
• 24:47
  to help me grow this pod, which I hope you do.
• 24:51
  I just. Got one thing to ask you?
• 24:52
  Can you give the pod? Five stars on.
• 24:55
  Spotify Follow the pod on. Spotify Listen to the pod
• 24:58
  retweet the pod when I tweeted out.
• 25:00
  From at Josh Under Score Insights.
• 25:02
  Or at A at. Under score ASG, Under Score
• 25:04
  Podcast It. Means a lot to me.
• 25:06
  Especially without those those five star reviews, of course, if
• 25:10
  you're on iTunes. Or another way of listening, you
• 25:12
  know, that would mean a lot. As well, but Spotify?
• 25:13
  Really. Is the one that I'm I'm trying
• 25:15
  to focus. On here.
• 25:16
  Because that is the most. Popular way that people listen
• 25:19
  to pods. That's what the data says.
• 25:21
  But anyway. Give the pod five stars.
• 25:23
  Of course. Also if.
• 25:24
  You. Are interested in learning more.
• 25:27
  About data-driven betting. Or maybe you just think I'm a
• 25:29
  good guy. You want to make my?
• 25:30
  Day but of. Course you want to support the.
• 25:32
  Team and and learn more. Or maybe you have a friend or an
• 25:35
  uncle, or a cousin or somebody. Who is maybe in a newly
• 25:39
  legalized state? Or new to betting?
• 25:42
  Or wants to learn more about betting, Then you know what you
• 25:44
  can do. Go buy my book.
• 25:46
  For you, or for a friend or whoever, just go to Amazon.com.
• 25:49
  Type in the Everything Guide to Sports betting Buy a copy for
• 25:52
  you or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
• 25:54
  in the industry. How lines are set?
• 25:56
  How and why they move? How to read?
• 25:57
  Line movement. How to locate sharp action?
• 25:59
  How to place a bet in person or online?
• 26:01
  How? To shop for the best.
• 26:02
  Line How to set up a bankroll management plan.
• 26:04
  It's all included. In the Everything Guide to
• 26:06
  Sports Betting. So pick one up, give it five
• 26:08
  stars in a good review. That would mean the.
• 26:10
  World to me. Guys, I would really appreciate
• 26:11
  it and. Guess what if you do?
• 26:13
  Next time I see you at the book, I'm.
• 26:14
  Going to buy you a beer? And I'm going to sign that book.
• 26:17
  For you, hopefully we'll sweat. Some games together and make
• 26:19
  some money. And then lastly, of course, have
• 26:21
  you heard about rhythm? Hope you've heard about rhythm.
• 26:24
  If you've been listening to. This pod I've been.
• 26:26
  Promoting rhythm because rhythm powers this pod.
• 26:28
  I'm so happy to partner. With Rhythm.
• 26:30
  Rhythm is the ultimate AI sports betting app for data, back picks
• 26:35
  and props. So if you haven't done it yet, I
• 26:37
  want you to go download the Rhythm app.
• 26:39
  But you got. To do it a specific way, just go
• 26:41
  to my Twitter page if you don't. Haven't yet give me a.
• 26:43
  Follow at Josh. Under Score Insights and you
• 26:46
  want to click the link that is pinned at the top of my Twitter
• 26:49
  profile, it's. Going to have.
• 26:51
  A A little. It's a little.
• 26:52
  Kind of like video. Where I'm kind of explaining
• 26:55
  what the. The new podcast.
• 26:56
  Is and there's a link at the bottom that has a custom link to
• 26:59
  sign up with Rhythm Click that custom link so they know.
• 27:02
  That I refer to you, you can also.
• 27:03
  Click the pin tweet at. The top of the All systems Go
• 27:05
  Twitter page at under Score ASG under Score Podcast.
• 27:09
  But rhythm is great. Rhythm is the ultimate, again as
• 27:12
  I mentioned AI sports betting platform.
• 27:14
  The place for data back. Props and pics.
• 27:17
  And it is the top sports betting predictive analytics.
• 27:19
  App on the market, so I give it a.
• 27:21
  Shot Play around it. Go.
• 27:23
  Sign up using those custom links at the top of.
• 27:25
  My or the ASG Pods Twitter profile.
• 27:29
  Well, with that being said, guys, another pod here in the.
• 27:31
  Books reminder whether. I see you at the Borgata in
• 27:34
  Atlantic City, Twin. River in Rhode Island.
• 27:36
  The Brooklyn, New Hampshire. Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 27:39
  Connecticut. At the encore in Boston or Plain
• 27:41
  Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
• 27:44
  My neck of the woods are out in the desert, where the true
• 27:45
  grinders get down. Where Billy Walters sends his
• 27:47
  number runners Where? You walk in, you can get $1.50
• 27:50
  hot dog and it feels like 1970 the.
• 27:52
  South Point or of course, Stadium Swim and Circa getting a
• 27:55
  victory burger. The Disneyland.
• 27:57
  Modern day Disneyland for adults.
• 27:59
  And sports bettors. You got to make a make a time to
• 28:01
  go out to see the circus sports book.
• 28:03
  Wherever maybe you're going. To walk up to me and you're
• 28:05
  going to show me a second straight day of winning tickets.
• 28:08
  Show me a Dallas Stars. Ticket.
• 28:10
  A Cubbies Ticket. A Padres Ticket.
• 28:12
  A Red Sox. Ticket.
• 28:13
  A Yankees ticket. Guess what?
• 28:14
  First one's on me. Next one's on you.
• 28:16
  We're going to post about the book.
• 28:17
  Sweat. Sharp contrarain plays all.
• 28:19
  Night long. So wish you the best luck
• 28:21
  everyone my parting words as. Always stay sharp.
• 28:24
  State contrarian Bet against the public.
• 28:26
  Place yourself on the side of the house.
• 28:27
  Always be with. The smart money never against.
• 28:30
  It Well, smart money. One every time.
• 28:31
  Of course not. If you haven't realized yet
• 28:33
  sports betting, it's hard. But again, when it's hard.
• 28:36
  And you realize what you're up against.
• 28:38
  When you have a bad day, you don't go too nuts, but when you
• 28:40
  have a winning day it gives you confidence because.
• 28:42
  Even though it's hard, we can be winning.
• 28:44
  Long term betters if. We consistently bet with our.
• 28:46
  Head and not our heart if we can.
• 28:47
  Find that sweet spot, games that.
• 28:49
  Fit our model against the. Public with the House with the
• 28:52
  pros. Flat bet.
• 28:53
  Avoid. Parlays.
• 28:54
  Get some CLV. If we can do that, we're.
• 28:56
  Going to be successful long term.
• 28:58
  So enjoy the sweats, everyone. Have a great Thirsty Thursday.
• 29:01
  Let's see if we can turn this into a three.
• 29:03
  Day winning streak? That is the goal.
• 29:05
  Be back at it tomorrow for episode 17 of The All Systems
• 29:08
  Go. Pod and I'm looking.
• 29:09
  At the biting. UFC card for this weekend.
• 29:13
  And hopefully we'll have a couple.
• 29:14
  Plays here. At least one in particular has
• 29:15
  caught my eye, but I want one more fresh batch of data for my
• 29:18
  buddy John Ewing at BET MGM. He always sends.
• 29:20
  It to me early Friday morning, so let's see where that.
• 29:22
  Data is going and look for a a biting.
• 29:25
  System match for UFC tomorrow. But have a great Thursday.
• 29:28
  Everyone back at it for a big Friday.
• 29:30
  Enjoy the sweats. And let's cash some tickets,
• 29:33
  because there's nothing better. Than cashing a winning ticket.
• 29:35
  Good luck everybody. Have a great night.