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Elon Musk Plan for Multi Planetary Life on Mars! · Elon Musk Thinking

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  When we talk about, you know, getting to Mars, how realistic do
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  you think that is. There's a book that just came out as review in
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  the Wall Street Journal talking about all of the various obstacles to human beings actually
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  living on Mars. Like we we live in a pretty propitious place. I
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  mean, the world's pretty wonderful planet. Yeah and us Yeah exactly. So
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  what are the biggest obstacles and what do you think the timeline is in terms
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  of having a robust presence on other planets. Well, we're hoping to have
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  the first humans on the Moon in less than five years, Mars maybe a
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  little longer than five years. I'd be surprised if we don't have humans on
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  Mars are within ten years? Wow? Yeah? And then we're going to
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  aim to have a lot of humans and both a city on Mars and a
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  base on the Moon. How do we mobilize that many resources there that quickly?
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  That's a lot of resources necessary. It's not like you can draw from
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  the environment a lottery source. And now I should say, in order to
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  pass the firmly grateful to of being a multiplanet species, that the other,
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  the second planet, has to be self sustaining, so that the ass a
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  test being that if the resupply ships from Earth stuff coming for any reason whatsoever,
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  it could be mundane or more serious, will Mars die out or not?
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  So Mars has to be completely self sufficient in order to pass the firmly
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  grateful stup that the particular gratefulture I'm talking about is if something climbs has happened
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  to one planet, is is humanity gone or not? And so how long
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  will it take for that to be self sustaining? When you say, you
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  know, in ten years people will be on Mars like forty issues. So
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  one of the things I think that captures the imagination about what you're doing is
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  that you're speaking in ambitious terms that people have not spoken in the West for
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  solidly half a CENTI. I mean, really, it's an amazing thing.
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  Yes, I say it's so often not going. I mean, you say
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  this stuff because it's you all the time. But the reality is that the
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  last time people were talking about within a decade we're going to have a man
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  on the moon was JFK talking at the beginning of the nineteen sixties. Yeah,
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  it's been full on half a century since anybody talked like this, and
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  I think people find it shocking, and I think maybe we should look at
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  the other side of that to both sides. One what makes you different?
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  And two why do you think that dream went away? Why do you think
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  it was that for half a century after we put a man on the Moon,
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  we just kind of receded back into into whatever the hell was else going
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  on. Yeah, that's the long story. But the the fallouf to the
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  Shuttle to the Saturn fire was the Space Shuttle space stalk could only go to
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  low Earth orbit, but that there, and the aspiration was to make it
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  reusable, but the they unfortunately did not succeed in that in that goal.
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  The Space Shuttle was so difficult to refub that it ended up costing as much
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  as a Saturn five. And then the main, the primary structure of the
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  Space Shuttle orbit system, a big orange tank was it's actually a primary airframe
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  because it takes the load from the the orbit of the sort of airplane looking
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  thing, and this the side boosters, so you lose that every time the
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  side boosters landing the ocean, and and their solid rocket boosters, so that
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  you know, they have to get shipped back to the factory to get solid
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  propellant loaded in cut a long story short, the cost per flight of the
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  Shuttle ended up being roughly the same as as a Saturn five expendable. So,
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  but the Shuttle had about a quarter of the paler to orbit and could
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  not reach the Moon. So it you know, so nobilized ideas at the
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  start, but ultimately it was it was not a good design. So and
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  then the Shuttle retired obviously, and then we had nothing. That curve is
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  that is not a good curve going from the Moon to lower th orbit to
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  nothing. That does not extrapolate to being a multiplanet species. So that's why
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  I started SpaceX is to try to reverse that trend and get us back on
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  to doing exciting things in space again, you know, things that make people
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  excited to get up in the morning and say, yes, the humanity is
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  going to do some amazing thing in space. We're experiencing a lot of global
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  eight ninety eight ninety eight today to get started. One of the things that
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  that's so impressed about SpaceX is not just the aspiration, but the fact that
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  it's a successful business and that you realized very early on that it's not enough
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  to have the aspiration. I mean it was a government to put a person
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  on the mood that that's not the same thing as actually being able to build.
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  You said, self sustaining with regard to life on Mars, but a
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  self sustaining business that actually has the capacity and a profit driven model to do
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  something like that to project Yeah. I mean to be clear, at the
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  start of SpaceX, I gave us a less than ten per cent chance of
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  success. I thought we'd probably die. But you know, I think if
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  something is important enough, it's worth doing even if you think it's going to
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  fail. And we almost did fail. The first three launches of our small
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  rocket failed. Only the fourth one launch succeeded and if we if that fourth
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  one had failed, we would be dead. So it's close at this point,
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  you know, K not gonna word. SpaceX is quite prosperous. SpaceX
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  dead about eighty percent of all paler to orbit last year of Earth, China
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  did about twelve percent and the rest of the world at eight percent. So
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  in this year, if things go well, SpaceX will do ninety percent of
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  all paler to Earth and then as Starship really takes off, SpaceX will be
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  doing at least based on what other companies are currently doing, which is,
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  you know, around three four hundred tons to orbit. SpaceX ultimately will be
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  doing several hundred thousand tons to orbit, maybe a million tons to orbit.
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  It's amazing. And what you mentioned there that it is a sort of skin
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  of the teeth thing, I mean that's been true in a lot of companies
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  that you've worked with. I mean that was true in Tesla also, that
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  it was a real skin of the tee thing. And so maybe you can
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  talk a little bit about what does that feel like. I mean, as
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  a CEO in your person who is a professional, you must do you enjoy
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  the risk? Do you enjoy that stressful? Well? I don't see grisk
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  for risks. Say, Tesla had many close calls with death. The natural
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  state of a car company in America is dead. I mean the only two
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  car companies that have not gone bankrupt are Ford and Tesla. Do you have
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  a cry story bankrupt in two thousand and nine. There have been hundreds of
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  car bankruptcies before. So it's one of those things where like I said that
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  the natural state of a car company is dead, So you have to keep
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  pulling rabbits out of a hat to not be dead. Do you think that
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  your personality is suited to that and that's why you're successful at this? That
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  you think that's unique to the companies you pick, that that you're pulling rabbits
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  out of hats? Are isn't that everything pulled so many rabbits out of hat
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  It's like an arcer rabbits here there. I mean, I'm good at solving
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  technology problems, so and rockets and cars both technology problems. Have a very
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  strong team that work with me, and uh yeah, so far, so good.