Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Former CIA military analyst on Iran war_ American publics patience is growing thin

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Former CIA military analyst on Iran war_ American publics patience is growing thin · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: A new CBS poll shows most Americans suspect the conflict
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  Speaker 1: in Iran will last months or even years. This as
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  Speaker 1: President Trump holds off launching a major military escalation in Iran,
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  Speaker 1: in part because of the dwindling stockpile of US munitions.
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  Speaker 1: This according to The New York Times, those concerns were
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  Speaker 1: dismissed this morning, as.
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  Speaker 2: The President said, we are locked and loaded. Even more
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  Speaker 2: assets are going into theater. But he's giving talk some space.
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  Speaker 2: He's giving it a little bit of room. We've had
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  Speaker 2: both Imman and Iran and a number of our other
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  Speaker 2: negotiators engaged at every level, from the most senior levels
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  Speaker 2: all the way down to the technical level over the
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  Speaker 2: past few weeks and particularly in the past few days.
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  Speaker 1: Joining me now former CIA military analyst and former spokesperson
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  Speaker 1: for the Counter Extremism Project, Tarah Maller, And Tara, I'm
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  Speaker 1: glad to.
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  Speaker 3: Have you here.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk about that CBS poll.
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  Speaker 3: Are you surprised?
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  Speaker 1: I mean, based on the current developments and RAN and
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  Speaker 1: reported intelligence assessments, how long do you suspect this could
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  Speaker 1: go on?
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  Speaker 4: I'm not actually surprised with the polling. We've seen the
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  Speaker 4: American public shift their views over the past couple of months,
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  Speaker 4: because what we've seen is sort of a start and
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  Speaker 4: stop to the fighting since March, and I think the
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  Speaker 4: American public's patients is growing thin until the administration lays
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  Speaker 4: out a clearly articulated strategy and shows that they've made
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  Speaker 4: demonstrable gains towards.
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  Speaker 3: Those actual goals. And so I'm not actually surprised that
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  Speaker 3: this is where we're at.
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  Speaker 4: While we do seem to have a temporary cessation in
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  Speaker 4: fighting at the current moment after thirteen consecutive nights of strikes,
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  Speaker 4: it remains to be seen if the administration can turn
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  Speaker 4: this into diplomatic leverage.
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  Speaker 3: And back into talks.
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  Speaker 4: We've had the crumbling of the memorandum of understanding, so
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  Speaker 4: simply going back to that status quo, I'm not that optimistic.
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  Speaker 4: We're going to need to see more leverage towards the
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  Speaker 4: Iranians in a diplomatic negotiation that.
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  Speaker 3: Frankly is going to take a while.
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  Speaker 4: Just to remind everyone, JCPOA under Obama, whether you agree
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  Speaker 4: or disagree, took twenty two months to get that on
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  Speaker 4: paper on the nuclear aspect, and here there's a lot
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  Speaker 4: more at play with the straight and other maritime difficulties
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  Speaker 4: that the United States and international community are facing.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it just seemed like the MoU was woefully inadequate
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  Speaker 1: or not you know, fleshed out if you will. While
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  Speaker 1: The New York Times reports President Trump's meeting with his
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  Speaker 1: national security team on Friday helped convince him to put
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  Speaker 1: the escalation he was considering on hold because of already
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  Speaker 1: strained munition stockpiles. You just heard Ambassador Waltz dismissing those concerns.
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  Speaker 1: The fact that these stories are surfacing, Tara, what does
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  Speaker 1: that tell you about US capabilities and whether they are dwindling.
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  Speaker 4: I think there's probably a multitude of factors that are
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  Speaker 4: contributing to the situation right now. I think there probably
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  Speaker 4: are concerns about munitions, and it's particularly defensive munitions that
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  Speaker 4: can be used to intercept incoming missiles towards allies and
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  Speaker 4: in the region like Jordan and Kuwait who have faced
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  Speaker 4: a barrage of Iranian missile attacks and drone attacks. I
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  Speaker 4: think you see oil prices surging, which had led the
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  Speaker 4: administration also to be concerned because, as the prior segment noted,
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  Speaker 4: economic concerns are something that the American public vote on
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  Speaker 4: and as we approach midterms, there's obviously a number of
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  Speaker 4: political concerns about how long the strikes on, what gains
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  Speaker 4: we see, and are we safer and better off than
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  Speaker 4: we were five six months ago, or better off than
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  Speaker 4: we were when we did the initial round of strikes
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  Speaker 4: on the nuclear facilities in Iran, when I think I
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  Speaker 4: was on your show about a little.
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  Speaker 3: Over a year ago.
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  Speaker 4: So I think there were probably a combination of concerns.
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  Speaker 4: But the most critical for what caused the pause right
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  Speaker 4: now is that the escalated strikes weren't translating into either
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  Speaker 4: diplomatic or military gains.
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  Speaker 3: They might have been integrating capabilities.
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  Speaker 4: But you need to translate those into strategic outcomes. And
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  Speaker 4: here the strategic outcomes are first and foremost the straight
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  Speaker 4: of Her moves and secondly the Iranian nuclear program. And
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  Speaker 4: now we have kind of some other areas that have
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  Speaker 4: been thrown in, like other waterways that are under threat,
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  Speaker 4: for example the hu thies in now causing problems as
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  Speaker 4: well near the Red Sea as for.
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  Speaker 3: Another maritime choke point. So there's a multitude of issues
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  Speaker 3: here that.
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  Speaker 4: We need to see progress on, and I do think
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  Speaker 4: it is good that there's a pause now you need
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  Speaker 4: to kind of give the situation.
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  Speaker 3: Some breathing room.
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  Speaker 4: But this is not going to be something that can
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  Speaker 4: be thrown together in a forty eight hour memorandum. This
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  Speaker 4: needs to be comprehensive. It needs to be something that
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  Speaker 4: can be verifiable, and it needs to have third party
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  Speaker 4: credible commitments associated with it to hold people accountable if
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  Speaker 4: they violate the terms.
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  Speaker 1: There's another Times report which suggests US intelligence agencies believe
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  Speaker 1: Around's new Supreme Leader is much more committed to developing
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  Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon than his father and predecessor. And from
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  Speaker 1: all we've heard from the intelligence community, does that seem
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  Speaker 1: likely because he has not made any public appearances yet.
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  Speaker 4: Yes, I think there have been two interesting reports out
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  Speaker 4: in the public domain from the intelligence community to your point.
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  Speaker 4: One is that the new leader seems to be more
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  Speaker 4: of a hard liner with regard to the nuclear program,
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  Speaker 4: so that's problem one. And the second assessment that was
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  Speaker 4: floating around again, also in the press this week from
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  Speaker 4: the intelligence community is that the escalation of strikes by
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  Speaker 4: the United States did not seem to be impacting the
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  Speaker 4: Iranian willingness to kind of yield on diplomatic outcomes here
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  Speaker 4: or strategic outcomes that the US is trying to attain,
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  Speaker 4: and that's obviously troublesome and not the trend lines you
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  Speaker 4: want to see, particularly after you've been engaging in a
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  Speaker 4: military campaign over the course of months. So I do
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  Speaker 4: think that's something to watch and it's probably something the
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  Speaker 4: intelligence community is watching closely. One optimistic note is usually
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  Speaker 4: there are fractures between leadership and I worked as a
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  Speaker 4: military analyst on a rock and it was very rare
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  Speaker 4: that there was like a unitary viewpoint, and so it's
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  Speaker 4: not impossible that the administration might be able to make
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  Speaker 4: headway with other more moderate and I use that term
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  Speaker 4: sparingly elements of the Iranian regime to try to make
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  Speaker 4: traction on negotiations. We've been able to do that in
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  Speaker 4: other agreements and diplomatic situations before, particularly by embracing and
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  Speaker 4: including our allies at the table.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, does make sense. Tarah Maller, as you always do.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks for joining me.