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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from Sassfin
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Securities in Johannesburg.
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David, I want to read something to you.
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I sent it to you, and I know you're an avid reader and you probably have had a
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look at it, but I want to read it out.
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It says here, In the middle of the night, while most of the country was sleeping,
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the President of the United States was wide awake in a dimly lit room deep inside
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the White House,
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relentlessly on social media.
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for nearly six hours when most presidents would have been resting ahead of another
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day at war donald trump was instead
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flooding his personal platform with a stream of conspiracies self-promotional
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imagery and disjointed
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messages buried in the middle of all that was one post that triggered grave
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worldwide concern for what would
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come next over the course of the next six hours the president posted nearly 46 times
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Pushing out conspiracy theories accusing Obama and his underlings of treason and
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sedition,
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images of himself meant to project power, and movie-like trailers meant to convince
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punters that putting America first is good
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for the world and that only he can solve any and all of our problems.
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And then, in the middle of it all, he shared a live performance of My Way by
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Frank Sinatra.
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Frank Sinatra.
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And you probably know that one, David.
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It starts, and now the end is near.
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And so I faced the final curtain, followed by, my friend, I'll say it clear, I'll
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state my case,
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of which I'm certain I did it my way.
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He didn't add any context or explanation, he just put it up there.
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I mean, the fact that he does, he can complete 46, not tweets, whatever it is,
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messages on his social platform, Truth Social, is quite astonishing in the middle
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of the night,
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for hours and hours a day.
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You think he does it?
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I think all of this.
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He might go to sleep, but someone else is doing it for him.
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You know, it might be pre-recorded.
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I mean, it's insane that he's, you know,
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that he's come out with so consistent.
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And why use that platform to put across your policies?
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You know, it is.
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It's astounding.
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I mean, now you understand why social media has such a large impact,
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because even the President of the United States does it.
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Well, so many people do it, you know, other politicians do it to get their
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message out.
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Whether this is where we've gone, I don't know, you know, I can't stand it.
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And there's nothing worse than spending your whole day just looking at your phone
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and it drags you
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in.
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Do you ever get sent a message on a Monday morning that says last week you averaged X
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amount of time on your phone?
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Yes, yes, yes.
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How many hours do you average?
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What would you say?
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Because I'm using it like now, you know, so it comes to about just one and a half
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hours a day.
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Which is, I mean, you know, it's not bad.
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I mean, because I use it as a phone.
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Very good.
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I mean, mine's five hours a day.
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Yeah, well, it's your business.
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But I mean, I can't stand my phone.
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No.
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I mean, I've got a laptop and I've got a, you know, a desktop.
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I mean, I've got a big screen.
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So that's what I watch for most of the time and I like.
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I use emails and everything, but
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I can't stand looking at my phone and getting sucked into Reels or into YouTube
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or
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into Instagram and whatever.
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It can be very addictive.
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It can be very addictive indeed.
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And I can understand why young people, vulnerable people, can get firstly sucked
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into it because it's very enticing.
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And secondly, start to believe some of the theories that are put across on these
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rather unpleasant terms.
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from these unpleasant contributors to whatever platform it is.
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I can see why it happens, David, and it has a huge influence.
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And I think people like Zuckerberg realize it, and they really should be reined in.
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I've got a bit of a thing about Zuckerberg, you know that.
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But you know, Lindsay, it's like our dear friend Julieta, she loves to battle on
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X, you know, she loves to take on everybody.
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And all you do is you get...
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Somebody who's probably got a low IQ, doesn't earn any income, has plenty of
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time,
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sits back and insults, you know, and just has a go because it gives them that power.
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of following you or following people who've got followings.
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I said, why do you subject yourself to this absolute frenzy of attack?
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I just forget about it.
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I don't care.
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And you get so excited because some jerk has gone and attacked you and called you
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whatever they want to.
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And in many cases, they do it anonymously under, what do you call it, a pseudonym or
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another name.
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Yeah, nom de plume, whatever it is.
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Nom de plume, whatever.
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Ah, please.
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Anyway, that's where we are.
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I'm not going to change it.
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Just going back to one of the reasons I wanted to read that introduction was
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because
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looking at Trump now and reading pieces like that about how much time he's
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spending, whether it's him or not,
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the fact is he's approving it, tells me that his mental state is deteriorating
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quite fast.
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Certainly physically, he looks...
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awful and he got off a helicopter yesterday and um his tie was wrapped
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around his neck
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for the one half of the lower bit of the tie the thinner bit was going down where
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it should be the other bit had been blown in the wind
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and he got off he got off the aircraft the helicopter tried to do his button up of
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his suit suit jacket uh he couldn't do that so left it stumbled a bit and just
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walked off
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and his tie was still around his neck and he I don't know.
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He's the president, David.
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I think something silly is going to happen.
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You know what?
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There's a chance.
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He's under pressure.
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I think this hasn't gone his way.
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And it's really testing him.
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You know, he thought it would be over in a week.
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And it just drags on.
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And I think the consequences of this war are so widespread now,
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causing lots of issues.
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I know the markets are complacent and I'm glad about that.
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I think they're just moving beyond and getting back to focus on, you know, on
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fundamentals.
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But I mean, from a global point of view, there's just so much debris that has been
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left.
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It's, you know, it's quite worrying.
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And it's just, you know, it's shaken up everything.
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Everything is just like you're...
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You know, alliances, NATO, Russia, China, who knows?
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And just, you know, oil.
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I mean, the whole supply chain, everything is just a mess.
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And there doesn't seem to be any kind of solution.
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You know, this can go on.
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You know why, Lindsay?
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Because you can go into a dime store, whatever it is, you know, down the road,
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build yourself a drone.
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and and and drop things on other people.
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I mean, it doesn't take a lot of effort.
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So you don't have to be a powerful nation to cause havoc, which is what the Iranians
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are doing.
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It is extraordinary, the whole drone warfare thing.
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I just read something today about Ukraine hitting
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Russian targets 500 kilometres away with these little drones.
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They can do nothing about it.
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You did some reading over the weekend.
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You always do some reading over the weekend.
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What was it this weekend?
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You know,
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I was trying to get some cohesive view of where we are and what the war means
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and how we get out of it.
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And this is not market, this is more from a political point of view.
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And some of it may exist.
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So, you know, wherever you go,
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I think virtually every article is around the wars, around Trump,
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is around...
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I mean, there are massive attacks on him from every angle that it comes, you know,
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all the major publications.
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And there's very little complementary.
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In fact, there's zero complementary, nothing that he can hook onto.
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So, but I think I looked at it more from an objective point of view and said, okay,
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well, where are we now?
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And try to summarize it.
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And I think that what...
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One of the highlights is that you've got these choke points,
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which is now the Strait of Hormuz, which is you're fighting over this Strait of
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Hormuz,
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which has been there for a long time.
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This is nothing new.
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Exactly.
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I don't understand why people are suddenly so surprised about it.
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It's a 22-mile waterway that sends out...
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Hundreds and hundreds of ships every month.
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And that's it.
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And why didn't Trump know this?
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Why didn't Trump work out that that is the only thing that they've got going for
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them?
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Some drones, a few missiles that they've got left, and, of course, the strait that
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they own.
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It's just ridiculous.
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What was the conclusion?
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What was the conclusion?
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I also would have thought, no, the conclusion is that...
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There's been no defense against this.
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In other words, there's no alternative.
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You know, I would have thought that if it was such a sensitive area, Saudi Arabia,
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all the other nations would have said, okay,
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you know, we've got to start maybe doing something through the Red Sea or maybe
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doing something through Europe.
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I mean, simply they're on the other side of the strait.
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is Iran and a massive border of Iran.
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You know, they can pick up,
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get on horseback or whatever they do and ride somewhere else and
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launch missiles from there.
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Sorry, I should have said they're on a camel, you know, because it's desert or
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whatever they do.
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So it's surprising that these energy routes have not been protected
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and now are so vulnerable.
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You know,
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I think the other thing is what we've been talking about as well is just how AI is so
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powerful now.
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You know, it's that both armies,
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or I'm talking about mainly the U.S.
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Army, was able to pinpoint with such precision, you know, their strikes.
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I mean, it's remarkable how important it is.
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You know, we spoke about the drones and missiles as well.
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and how you can get a rocket that you buy for Guy Fawkes and do an incredible amount
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of damage, you know,
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to ship-sore anybody.
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It doesn't take a huge amount of effort to use drones and missiles to cause harm and
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weaken powers because
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they've got to kind of counteract it.
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So, I mean, all of these things are emerging.
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And I think the other thing is NATO.
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You know, I don't know where Europe is and NATO is now.
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Why should they be anywhere?
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Why should they be anywhere?
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No, no, I'm just saying that it's under strain, you know, and I'm merely
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commenting.
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I'm not saying yes or no.
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I don't think NATO is under strain, actually.
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I think NATO has been strengthened with the Hungary election, with
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Orban getting kicked out and this new chap who's still on the right,
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but he's pro-NATO and therefore he'll be pro-Ukraine.
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And so I think...
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NATO is just sitting there watching Trump and saying, but you didn't tell us about
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this.
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You expect us to be able to mobilise equipment and soldiers just like that.
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We're not like you.
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We're not skin-of-the-teeth stuff.
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You know, wake up in the morning and think, right, what's next?
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Ooh, I fancy Iran.
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Let's bomb them because that's what Trump does.
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How dare he say that NATO has let them down?
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A load of rubbish.
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It makes me mad.
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David.
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No, I'm just saying they're strained.
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Their relationship with the US is strained.
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Yes.
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You know, and from that point of view, I think the US is still important for them.
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I don't know what's going to happen as a result of this.
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They've got to get, Europe's got to get together.
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It's got to get its act together and say, hold on a sec.
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You know, we can't trust the man.
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He's unpredictable.
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How are we going to combat this?
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You know, the...
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Remember, the UK and the French still have nuclear armaments from the olden days.
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So they're still very powerful forces.
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But they've got to do something to try and strengthen Europe, you know,
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to come out of it against what might be a threat.
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I think the other one, of course, you have to look at the UAE, Qatar and all of that.
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It's incredibly vulnerable.
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And the last thing you want to do in these circumstances is have Iran with a nuclear
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bomb.
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or nuclear capabilities.
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So, you know, it's another thing to think about.
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And I think this is why Trump is just acting the way he is.
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I think he's completely out of his depth, which is not, you know, I think he's out
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of his depth.
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Okay, so what we can, given all the headlines that keep flashing on the
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screen, the finance minister of Iran says,
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we're not talking to America and we don't want to talk to America anymore.
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Trump tells the New York Post this afternoon that J.D.
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J.D.
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Vance is on his way to Pakistan for Iran talks.
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Now, who do you believe?
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Do you believe Trump or do you believe the Iran minister?
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I don't know.
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I tend to think that J.D.
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Vance is about as good as Jared Kushner and Witkoff.
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I mean, the two drippiest people that you could possibly send.
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I mean, what's his name?
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They don't do anything.
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Kushner stands there looking like a dead fish all the time with his black eyes.
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He looks like he's just got off the slab of a fishmonger.
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And Witkoff, I don't know,
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he's got his tackies on with his suit and he just looks like a dodgy chap from East
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London or
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something.
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Not your East London, but my East London.
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I know, from Billingsgate.
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Precisely, yeah.
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That's a good one, yeah.
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You know, I think, and why the markets are steady like they are at the moment,
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I think they're responding to...
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Both sides not wanting to take this ahead.
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They're making a lot of noise, but I don't think they want the rockets to fly again.
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They don't want a war to continue.
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And despite this, I think that they...
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And despite this, I think they will bring an end to it.
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It'll drag on, but nothing will happen.
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It'll be literally hitting each other with hand.
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So the markets just carry on.
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But what about the impact on inflation?
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And what about the interest rate policy?
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Because there's not going to be cuts.
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There's not going to be cuts unless Trump forces the Fed to lower rates,
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which he can do with Walsh in charge.
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But we'll see.
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But anyway, I'm looking at my screen.
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If you look at your screen.
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Eight months ago, Brent Crude Oil was trading at, actually, no, West Texas Crude
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was trading at $57 a barrel.
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It's now $88 a barrel.
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Brent Crude Oil is now $94.55.
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And it's been there now for how many days has the war been going on?
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Is it nearly five weeks now?
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Or is it just four weeks?
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I can't remember.
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It's nearly six weeks.
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It was the end of February.
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Oh, is it?
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Okay.
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Yeah.
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And that was six weeks, yeah.
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It'll start to filter through to prices, David.
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That's what I'm saying.
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At the moment, people are using up their stock and everything,
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and there's always a period of flatlining.
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But I think inflation is going to climb in the next quarter.
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It's going to hurt certain nations.
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And the more I look at America, you've got the rich and you've got the not-so-rich.
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And it's the not-so-rich that are going to feel it.
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The rich are not going to feel it.
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And they can handle it.
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So it makes headlines and it makes political headlines.
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But in essence, and the inflation rate will remain high because it's a basket.
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But does it impact Americans? Not really.
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Is it going to impact businesses?
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Not really.
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That's my point.
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And that's why the markets are doing what they're doing now.
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It's going to affect Apple. It's going to affect.
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Amazon, no.
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That's why that will continue.
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And I think that's why the markets are where they are.
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But certainly at the low end of the market for consumers who are very cost-conscious
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and
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watching their wallets, yes.
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I wonder about SA Inc.
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I mean, everyone talking about SA Inc.
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at the beginning of the year and saying it's going to be the best year, had a good
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year last year, but it was very much led with the JSC,
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that is.
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was very much led by a narrow resource-based pack of shares that went
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shooting up.
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And so the indices went shooting up.
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But everyone said this year, SA Inc.
17:34
is going to benefit from that.
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And then, of course, the war comes along.
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South Africa, terribly, terribly vulnerable, David, to the oil price.
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And I don't think Lesachikanyaga is going to raise rates, but he's not going to cut
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rates.
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And I do think people, credit retailers, are going to have a tough time.
17:52
Yeah.
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You're dead wrong.
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You know why?
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Initially, first of all, there's that fuel levy.
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So they subsidized the fuel price or the petrol price with a reduction of at least,
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I don't know, what, three rand per liter or something like that.
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They're going to have to reverse that.
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You know, they can't do that indefinitely.
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And the point is that the oil price, as long as these hostility or as long as the
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tensions last,
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are not going to do anything.
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You know, they're not going to go down.
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to those levels that you spoke about because there are a lot of ships that are
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still stuck there that can't get their cargos
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out and it's causing oil disruptions so yeah we are vulnerable i'm talking about i
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think europe to a large extent as
18:37
well very much so and it could be china it could be china as well america
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no you know i don't think america anywhere close to it's a sad situation isn't it
18:47
when
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america it could be self-sufficient in oil And if it cut itself off from the rest of
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the world,
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oil could be, or the petrol could be $1.50 a gallon in America.
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But it's $4.50 a gallon because of the world markets,
19:06
which is such a strange thing.
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Why isn't there a domestic oil market?
19:09
Why don't they just trade with each other?
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No, of course they don't.
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And I don't get that.
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I'm not an economist.
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I really don't get it.
19:15
Well, of course you can export.
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So why are you going to sell at a discount, you know,
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unless you're in a kind of authoritarian
19:29
nation?
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You know, they can insist upon that.
19:32
But I mean, otherwise, no, you're a free nation, free trade.
19:37
You want the international price, so you pay the international prices.
19:42
I think I'm a socialist, David.
19:44
I really think there should be a two-tier system.
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The oil companies in America that are producing oil, in Louisiana, wherever it
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is, Texas,
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they should be forced to sell a certain amount to the consumer market at the
19:59
level,
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and then a certain amount can be sold to the export market.
20:03
Yeah, that's not Marxism.
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That's socialism.
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It's the Williams model.
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David?
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Okay, so the market is going to be fine.
20:12
The markets that you like are going to be fine because you're AI heavy.
20:16
Yeah.
20:17
And yeah, good luck.
20:18
Fantastic.
20:19
Let's just,
20:20
don't try and anticipate a war scuffering a market that is being led by something
20:27
that is not
20:29
affected by the war.
20:31
Yes.
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That's the key point here, I think.
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And I'm reflecting on what I see in front of me.
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You know, I'm not, I'm, I'm.
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Judge, you know what, I'm commenting on saying, hold on a sec, you know, and as I
20:45
talk to you now,
20:47
the S&P is down, what, 0.1%?
20:48
0.1%, yeah.
20:50
Yeah, it's still in the 7,000s, you know.
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It only broke through there last week.
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Even the NASDAQ is down 0.3%.
20:57
Yes, there's a little bit of a sell-off after the big gains that we saw.
21:02
But, Lindsay, there's another point, you know, and I try and get this across.
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It's very narrow, this market.
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Of course.
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It's very narrow and concentrated.
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And the problem is that the more diversified you are,
21:17
the more diluted your returns will be because this is not being enjoyed by the
21:23
whole
21:24
market.
21:24
I think down below there's still pressure on so many shares.
21:28
We've had this diversification.
21:30
I'm talking to the U.S.
21:30
market, yeah.
21:31
We've had this diversification chat before, haven't we?
21:33
You are not anti-diversification, but you don't think it's the be all and end all.
21:38
of trading or investing rather.
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That's it.
21:42
You've got to be careful about it.
21:43
Careful, I mean, you've got to be, you know, it's put your eggs in one basket,
21:50
put all your eggs in one, but watch them carefully.
21:52
So, you know, that's my at the moment.
21:57
I'm saying don't spread too far out.
22:00
The market's strong, but know where it's strong and stay there.
22:04
If you've got to jump, jump.
22:07
I don't think that's going to happen.
22:09
But it's not easy.
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It's not easy to get that point across, you know, because so many people are
22:16
governed by,
22:18
you know, what's the right way and this is what the textbooks say.
22:23
But this is not for textbook investing.
22:26
Yeah, investing has changed.
22:28
Investing has changed.
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I mean, certain principles haven't changed, but the way that the markets are
22:33
moving.
22:34
they're very fluid, they're very dynamic, and they change from year to year.
22:37
There's a theme at the moment.
22:38
We know what the theme is.
22:39
We've talked about it ad infinitum.
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Until it changes, then people like yourself are going to continue to do well,
22:47
I think, David.
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So congratulations.
22:51
Now then, talking about congratulations, if you look at the Haaland goal yesterday,
22:56
at first glance you think, oh, he's just whacked it in from seven yards.
23:00
But it was very difficult.
23:01
The ball was behind him.
23:03
He got that huge leg of his out, left leg, bent it around that ball and got it in.
23:09
It was actually a very difficult goal.
23:11
I didn't like the way Manchester City paraded around the Etihad Stadium as
23:17
though they'd won the league.
23:19
I think that was a bit premature and a little bit disrespectful to Arsenal.
23:20
I didn't, yeah.
23:22
It's going to be a fascinating five games.
23:24
It's Lizzie Holland without his shirt.
23:26
He had a smirk on his face.
23:29
You know something, Lindsay?
23:30
I'm going to comment.
23:32
as well.
23:34
I enjoy football.
23:36
I like to watch teams.
23:38
And I'm not, you know, everybody's got a fan base.
23:41
I've got friends here who support Bolton and support Birmingham.
23:45
And Ipswich.
23:47
And Ipswich, yeah.
23:48
And they enjoy it.
23:49
You know, and I'm not one.
23:51
The first thing today, all I got was hate mail.
23:54
When I say hate mail, you know, all the smirk, you know, all the smokers, you
24:00
know, the smokers sending me.
24:02
what's it, either, you know, TikTok comments.
24:06
I say, leave me alone.
24:07
And I'm not, it's fine.
24:09
I'm not going to commit suicide if Arsenal don't win the league.
24:14
Another season, I've been watching them for, I don't know, ever since I was born.
24:18
But you know what I mean?
24:20
And the one thing that I don't like is this lack of respect as well.
24:25
I think you've got 24.
24:27
players on the field.
24:29
Sorry, 22 players on the field there.
24:31
They're all professionals.
24:33
They all try hard.
24:35
Odegaard and Haaland are now in the Norway team, which I think they have qualified,
24:42
haven't they?
24:44
Yes, they have.
24:46
They're going to be mates together.
24:48
You know what I mean?
24:50
They're going to go across to the World Cup.
24:52
I don't think they can share a bed because I don't think there's a bed big enough for
24:55
Holland. I don't know where he's going to find a place to sleep.
24:57
But, you know, that's the point.
24:58
A lot of the chaps still meet afterwards.
25:01
You know, they're all from the same country or they're still friends, whether
25:06
they're playing for Chelsea or West Ham or whatever it is.
25:08
And I think you should show that respect.
25:09
You know, that's… Um, So it's just something I feel very strongly about.
25:15
Okay, I agree with you.
25:16
I agree with you that people go too far.
25:18
And again, social media whips up all sorts of a frenzy of passion and vitriol,
25:25
actually.
25:26
Final point, David, because you've got a few seconds left.
25:28
Who's going to win the league, Arsenal or Manchester City?
25:30
One word answer.
25:31
Man City.
25:32
No, Man City will win it.
25:33
Okay.
25:34
I've got the answer.
25:37
I don't agree.
25:38
I think Arsenal will, so we're on different sides.
25:40
But David, thank you very much for your insight.
25:43
David Shapiro is an assassin of security.
25:45
Isn't that what Shapiro world?
25:46
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25:53
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