Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Upside Down | MLB & NFL | 9/10/26

Transcript

Thursday BEST BETS | Upside Down | MLB & NFL | 9/10/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Hole in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: in your hand. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: something to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 4: Look at me now Hold on, hold on.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Not tonight, not now.
• 0:57
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: fellow fights hard But he don't get the crown Hold on,
• 1:16
  Speaker 4: hold on, stay with me now. Hold on, hold on,
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: stay with me now.
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: I got to adjust my camera here.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: Shit.
• 1:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, they're winning 5-1, I think, at the
• 1:49
  Speaker 5: end of 5. They're up 6-1 going into the 7th inning,
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: and they lost the game 7-6.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: That's why I excluded the bullpen, man.
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: Once they're up by that much, I'm like, yeah, they're
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: going to win the whole game, obviously. No, but the
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: first five was the genius call by me on that one,
• 2:07
  Speaker 5: so that was a win.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: The other two games, nope.
• 2:11
  Speaker 5: The Yankees put up a bunch of runs early. It
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: was 5-0, I think, in the third inning, maybe fourth inning.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: It was 5-0.
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: I was like, all right, this is looking all right
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: so far. Just the Rockies got to get on the
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: board here, and that's what didn't happen. The Rockies could
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: not do anything on offense, and Yeah, and that was it.
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: We couldn't get there with it. It was a seven-run final.
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: And then Gaussman just was terrible right out of the gate.
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: That Cubs-Brewers one, that was done. That was over, like,
• 2:43
  Speaker 5: right away. You can't give up three runs in the
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: first inning. And then he gives up three runs in
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: the second inning, too. And then both teams wound up
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: scoring a bunch of runs. It's just such bullshit. It's
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: complete bullshit. I'm done with this shit, man. Don't listen
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: to me.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: Why would anybody?
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: Dirty Sock, why are you here? Why the fuck would
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: you listen to anything that I have to say?
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Like, seriously.
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: Every fucking thing that I put out on this show
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: is wrong. So do not listen to me at all.
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: Ever.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Don't.
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: Just don't do it. Like, I don't know what else
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: to tell you. None of this shit is going to
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: work out. Baseball has been horrific for, like, two months.
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: This is what happens. I'm really good in, like, May and, like,
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: early baseball. And then I should just fucking stop.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: Fuck baseball.
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: I'm done with this shit. I don't know what else
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: to say. I'm not going to have any baseball plays today.
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: This is a shit board today. There's a couple of
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: afternoon games here. Tampa Bay and Atlanta, yeah, okay. Atlanta
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: is trying to avoid a sweep because they suck, apparently. Well,
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: Tampa's not that bad of a team, but the Braves
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: have been awful in this series. They've been outscored 14-3,
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: so they are a home team trying to avoid a
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: sweep here, and usually that's going to motivate a team,
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: but I don't think this is a good pitching matchup
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: for Atlanta here, so I'm not going to be on
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: Atlanta in this one, even though they might have the
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: motivation to try to avoid the sweep. Tampa Bay is
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: playing Houston next, which is An interesting series. You know,
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: I mean, Tampa's trying to hang on to the division here,
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: but there are wild card implications there as well. Although,
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: Tampa's record is so much better than Houston's. It's not
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: like Tampa's going to wind up having to fight them
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: for a wild card spot or anything.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 4:30
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think this pitching matchup is pretty bad
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: for Atlanta, though. Tampa Bay, let me see. They used
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: four relief pitchers yesterday. Atlanta has the better bullpen, in
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: my opinion. They use three. Tampa Bay is ranked fourth
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: in bullpen, Atlanta third. Tampa Bay is not that good, though.
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: Atlanta is one of the top five. Tampa Bay is not,
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: although they're not horrible. Tampa Bay is number six offensively,
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: tied with Pittsburgh. Atlanta is 16th right now, tied with
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: Kansas City. I guess you give the offensive edge to
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay right now, even though I think it's close
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: between these two teams.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: Nick Martinez is starting for Tampa Bay.
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: He continues to defy regression here. I mean, he's been
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: not too bad throughout his career, but the advanced analytics
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: guys keep waiting for the regression here.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: It hasn't really happened.
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: 3.04 ERA, 1.1 whip. He's been good on the road, 2.15
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: road ERA, so he's better on the road, even though
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: Tampa as a team is not good.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: Martinez has been good over the past month plus.
• 5:37
  Speaker 5: He's had a couple of bad starts in there, here
• 5:39
  Speaker 5: and there, but he's mostly good.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: He's got a reasonable hit rate here.
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: He basically doesn't walk anybody, but the advanced analytics guys
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: don't like that he also doesn't strike anybody out. But
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: he has a four strikeout walk ratio because his walk rate.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Is so low.
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: 5.3 strikeout per nine. Yeah, I mean, I can see
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: the argument there. I mean, that's not a good number,
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: but he is not putting guys on base.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: And that's been consistent. And he also has pretty good
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Braves.
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: An 81 career at-bats,. 222 average,. 646 OPS.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: That's not bad.
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: 19-9 strikeout walk ratio, I mean, that's not good. But
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: the rest of these numbers are pretty good. Again, he
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: just doesn't really strike guys out. But, yeah, I mean, Martinez,
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: I think, has the upper hand here against Martin Perez.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: Not Martinez, Martin Perez.
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: For Atlanta, I mean, he's had a decent season. 3.25
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: ERA and 1.27 whip is not really that good. Indicates
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: that his ERA should be higher than it is.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: He's been really good at home, though.
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: 1.99 home ERA. So both pitchers in the better home
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: road splits here. Martinez is not in very good form
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: right now, though. He's walking a bunch of guys. The
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: last time he didn't walk multiple batters in a start
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: was a short three-inning appearance against Miami back on August 6th.
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: He's walking too many guys. He's not going that deep
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: into most of these outings. I mean, I guess give
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: him credit for going out there and getting some innings
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: and not getting killed in any of these starts, but
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: he's not exactly good. He's got a low hit rate.
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is definitely too high. His strikeout rate
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: is low. His strikeout walk ratio is really bad.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: 1.7.
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: I mean, that is not going to cut it at all.
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: Terrible number there. And so the advanced analytics guys, yeah,
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: they have problems with this as well. 6.8 strike-up per
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: nine is not great either. Perez against Tampa Bay, they
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: have 60 at-bats against them. Only six hitters have faced them, though.
• 7:38
  Speaker 5: Diaz has 30 of the at-bats, and Mullins has another 12.
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: Mullins has done almost nothing against him. Diaz has absolutely
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: destroyed him. But overall, Tampa Bay has a 317 average
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: and 849 OPS against them. and a 12-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: So the only thing good about that is that ratio.
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: I have to lean to Tampa Bay here. I know
• 7:59
  Speaker 5: Atlanta's trying to avoid the sweep, but I think it's
• 8:02
  Speaker 5: a pretty clear advantage to Tampa. I mean, you could
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: go first five innings, I guess, and not have to
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: deal with the bullpen because Atlanta's bullpen probably is the
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: better one. Atlanta's around a minus 120 favorite here. Tampa
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: Bay might be a favorite in the first five, though,
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: but it'll probably be like minus 110, something in that range.
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: Tampa is getting the money, 50% of tickets, 66% of
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: the cash on them. That's how I would do it
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: if I was going to play this game. I would
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: take Tampa in the first five. Houston and Philadelphia, these
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: teams have split the series here. Philadelphia got the win
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: in a high-scoring game yesterday. Houston blew that game. Houston
• 8:41
  Speaker 5: was winning. I think at the end of five, Houston
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: was winning that game, and I think I'd recommend a
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: Houston full game, so that kind of sucks in that one.
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: It wasn't a play for me, though. Christopher Sanchez wasn't good,
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: but Hunter Brown didn't do that well either. So that
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: was kind of surprising. This game looks like it's a
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: huge pitching mismatch in favor of Philadelphia. Houston, I think,
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: still needs the game more, though, because they're trying to
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: win their division. Philadelphia is pretty much guaranteed a wild
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: card spot at the worst at this point. Philadelphia used
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Houston used four.
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: I think Houston is maybe the slightly better bullpen here.
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: They're number 14. Philadelphia number 16. Excuse me, 18. It's
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: close between the two bullpens. They're both kind of mid-tier.
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: I think Philly may be a little bit worse than that.
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: Houston is the better offense. They're number 12. Philadelphia is
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: number 19. Although I keep pointing out Philadelphia has been
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: a better offensive team at home generally. And The worst
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: pitcher is pitching for Houston in this one, Christian Javier.
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's had some injuries that he's dealt with,
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: and he has not been good this year.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: 5.98 ERA, 1.55 whip. He's been really bad on the road. 6.65
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: road ERA. That's not good.
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: His last start was good at home against Arizona, except
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: the walks weren't really that good, but he one-hit them
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: through five innings. He gave up one run and had
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: eight Ks, and he was efficient with his pitches, too,
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: and he picked up a win, so that start was good,
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: but he was not pitching well prior to that, and
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: Houston lost all of his outings in August. So I'm
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: not going to say that one start means that he's
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: completely turned this around. I mean, he has not been good.
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is high. His walk rate is high.
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is also high. Strikeout walk ratio, 2.3
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: because of all the walks. That's still pretty bad. 9.1
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: Ks per nine is not bad, though. But, yeah, I'm
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: not willing to really trust him here. Although he does
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: have good numbers against Philly. 45 at-bats,. 222 average,. 582 OPS,
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: 16 strikeouts is good, three walks. Those numbers are good, but,
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, the matchup looks good for him. He's
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: been somewhat decent in some of his numbers in the past,
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: but I don't think I could trust him here. Zach
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: Wheeler is pitching for Philly. He's obviously the better pitcher. 3.23 ERA, 1.08 whip, 3.05
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: home ERA, slightly better at home with a sub-200 opponent.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Batting average at home. Wheeler had a bad August.
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: He had numerous bad starts in here, but the last
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: two starts that he's had have been good. And I
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: wasn't sold after he pitched well against Anaheim, but he
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: pitched well again against Atlanta. So it does look like
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: Wheeler is kind of back in form now at this point.
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: That was a good start from him there. He's got
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: a low hit rate. He doesn't really walk that many guys.
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is high. All those numbers are good.
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: Strikeout per nine is, excuse me, strikeout walk ratio, 3.8.
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: That's good. Strikeout per nine, 10.8. All of that is good.
• 11:43
  Speaker 5: Wheeler against Houston, though. He's not been that good. 92 at-bats,
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: 293 average, 774 OPS allowed, 25-8 strikeout walk ratio. The
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: ratio's pretty good, but everything else is not that good there.
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: I think I'm going to lean Houston again in this one.
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: Philly's public, 87% of the tickets, 93% of the cash
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: on them. They're around minus 190 here. The number looks
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: like it went up from where it opened, but... Yeah,
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think Houston needs the game more. They're
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: a giant underdog here. I think if you want Philly,
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: you're paying for it. You're having to pay for Wheeler,
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: the name, and for probably the team with the better
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: record here. I think Houston needs the game more, and
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: they at least have the better matchup numbers here.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: So that might be a way.
• 12:31
  Speaker 5: To lean is to take Houston in this one, and
• 12:34
  Speaker 5: you might be able to make a plus-one run line
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: out of it or something here.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: I probably also would agree with an over here.
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: The money's definitely coming in towards the over, and that's
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: basically just saying, well, Wheeler's matchup numbers aren't really that good,
• 12:46
  Speaker 5: and Javier just kind of sucks. So the over might
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: make sense, but both pitchers did pitch well in their
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: last start. Wheeler, in fact, in his last two.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: So I don't know.
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: The current form is not really bad for either pitcher,
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: although Javier was obviously a lot worse in the prior month.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: Well, really, I don't know. Both pitchers were bad in August, though,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: so I don't know.
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: I think the over is a lean for me in
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: that one, but I kind of lean Houston in some capacity,
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: run line or whatever. Texas and Seattle, on the surface,
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: this definitely looks like an under, and the total is
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: really low. We're looking at a pitcher-friendly ballpark here. Yesterday's
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: was an under. 3-2 Seattle wins. Seattle actually got a
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: win for once. This is a big series, and I
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: think it means a lot to both teams. Maybe it
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: means more to Seattle because they're losing more In the
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: division here, they're behind Texas and Houston, but Texas still
• 13:41
  Speaker 5: needs to win too because they could get a wild
• 13:43
  Speaker 5: card spot. They could still win the division, et cetera.
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: Both bullpens have been hugely disappointing this year based on
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: what they did last year. Seattle, three relief pitchers used yesterday.
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: Texas also used three. Both bullpens were good last year,
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: and this year they've both been kind of bad.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: Texas, number 20.
• 14:01
  Speaker 5: Seattle, 21. Not good bullpen ERAs, so I still do
• 14:06
  Speaker 5: not trust these bullpens. Seattle's been bad offensively, 29th. That is, yeah,
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: they've had bad times offensively. Texas, number 15, but I
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: don't think Texas is quite that good offensively. They're usually
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: better on the road than at home, but their home
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: stadium's pitcher-friendly, and so is Seattle. So I think this, again,
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: the quality of offense this year is definitely one that
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: you could look towards an under here. And the starting
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: pitching does look like maybe that's the way that you
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: should look here. Jacob deGrom is pitching for Texas. Good
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: season here, 3.96 ERA, 1.12 whip. However, he's been pretty
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: bad on the road, 5.86 road ERA. But this is
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: not like most other road stadiums. This is a pitcher-friendly environment.
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: So I would think he should pitch better here. His
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: last two starts were both good, but they were both
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: at home. His last two road starts were both pretty bad, though. Actually,
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: his last three road starts were We're all bad. You
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: have to go all the way back to June to
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: find a good road start out of him, which is
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: maybe not good. His hit rate is still low. His
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: walk rate is still low. His strikeout rate is still high.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: All those numbers are good.
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: 4.6 strikeout walk ratio, 10.9 Ks per nine.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: None of that is bad.
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: DeGrom is also pretty good against Seattle on 118 at bats,
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: 246 average allowed, 710 OPS, 34 strikeouts, 13 walks. That's
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: not that great. of a ratio, but these numbers are
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: pretty good. So DeGrom has an okay matchup here, I
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: would say. And it's a decent stadium, I think, for
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: him to pitch in. Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle.
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: He's been decent as well.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: 3.71 ERA, 1.07 whip.
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: He's not as good at home this year, 4.45 home ERA,
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: but it's been the home runs. He's allowed 26 home
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: runs this year. 23 of them have come at home,
• 15:59
  Speaker 5: and he has thrown 25 more innings at home, but
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: still his home run ratio at home makes almost no
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: sense because it's not a home run conducive stadium, so
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: I don't know how he's giving up this many home
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: runs at home. He's been better at home over the
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: last couple months, though, although his last start at home
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: was very weird. He gave up four home runs in
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: that last start at home, but he also had 10 strikeouts.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: At So it's just insane. This is such a bizarre
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: pitching line that was against the A's.
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: Basically everybody that got a hit off him basically hit
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: a home run off him, but then a bunch of
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: guys struck out against him too.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: That is a very strange pitching line.
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: He was kind of mediocre throughout the month of August,
• 16:45
  Speaker 5: but he was a lot better than what he showed
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: in that last start, so I don't think he's that bad.
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is low. His walk rate is pretty low.
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: Strikeout rate is high. Those numbers are all good. 4.2
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio is good, although it's lower than what
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: he posted most of his career. 9.6 Ks per nine
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: is fine as well. His numbers against Texas, I would say,
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: they're mediocre, but they're slightly in favor of him. And
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: 157 at bats, 255 average, 733 OPS, 44 to 10
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: That's a good ratio.
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, both pitchers are in the bad home
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: road split here. I still think the under is probably
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: the way to play this, but it's also at that
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: dreaded 6.5. You might be able to find a 7
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: somewhere at some point during the day because some of
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: these books have 6.5 juice to the over. But you
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: know me, I like to get that 7 because it's
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: a key number. I don't think I'd want to have
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: this on my card anyway. I just don't like the
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: home road splits for these pitchers. The current form, a
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: little bit questionable for me. But if you force me
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: to give a lean on this game, I think the under...
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: is what I would say, and that's where the money is.
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: 62% of the tickets on the over, 76% of the
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: cash on the under. But again, that 6.5, like I
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: always say, though, professional bettors will tell you that it
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: is a long-term winning play to take under 6.5 in baseball. Like,
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: more of them win than lose, at least, and I
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: think it might be slightly profitable. 59% of the tickets
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: are on Seattle, 58% of the cash, so the money
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: seems to be indicating towards Texas here. About minus 130
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: is the money line here.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: I can see the argument for it.
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: Texas might actually even be the better team at this point.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. DeGrom has, I think, the better
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers here.
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: DeGrom's in better form right now, too, so I guess
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: that would be the argument for it. I think if
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: you play the under or if you play one of
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: the sides here, though, I think maybe you've got to
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: do it first five because these bullpens are just so
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: hard to predict, and neither of them are that backable,
• 18:55
  Speaker 5: so I guess that kind of goes against me talking
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: about the six and a half full game total here,
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: but like, you know me, I don't like playing a
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: three in the first five either, or three and a half,
• 19:07
  Speaker 5: I don't think I'd want to do that either, so whatever,
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: I still think maybe the way to play this is
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: still just if you get a seven to play the
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: under seven in the full game, but yeah, I don't know,
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: Colorado at the Yankees, I mean, the Yankees are They're
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: going to sweep this series. I mean, Colorado's an ass team, whatever.
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: I mean, the Yankees won yesterday. The game could not
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: get to the over. I thought that both teams would
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: put up more offense. Well, the Yankees did their end.
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: We just needed this to be like a 6-4 game
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: or something like that, which I thought was a pretty
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: reasonable thought. But yeah, Will Warren did not give up
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: that many runs, obviously, and that was why we lost
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: that over yesterday. The Yankees were putting up a ton
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: of offense early, but Colorado's bullpen.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: Didn't get damaged either.
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: So I think the Yankees, basically all the runs they
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: scored were against Colorado's starter yesterday, so against Sugano. So
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: that kind of pisses me off, too, that the Yankees
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: didn't do any additional damage against the Rockies' trash bullpen.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: Okay, thanks a lot, guys.
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: The Yankees are going to be a massive favorite here.
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: They're such a huge price, they're unplayable. Let me see.
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: And by the way, the Yankees, I guess, could possibly
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: be looking ahead because they might just not take Colorado
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: seriously here. And the Yankees do have their subway series
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: against the Mets up next, which even though the Mets
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: haven't had a good season, I think that's always a
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: big deal.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: It's a rivalry series.
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: It probably means more to the Mets, though, because they're
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: always kind of the little brother there. Mets will have
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: a rest advantage coming into that game. Mets, you know,
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: looking ahead, the Mets might be worth a look in
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: that first game tomorrow, by the way, because the Mets
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: are going to have possibly the better starting pitcher on
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: the mound plus a rest advantage. So that little bit
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: of a look ahead to tomorrow, maybe that will make
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: the cut for me. I'm not sure yet. Haven't looked
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: at the matchup numbers. Yankees used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: We all know their bullpen is better than Colorado's. Colorado
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: only used one relief pitcher. The Yankees are the number
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: one bullpen ERA, number two whip still. tied and whipped
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: with Atlanta, but they have a better ERA, obviously. Colorado's
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: a terrible bullpen. They're number 26. They're at least better
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: than the few worst teams. Colorado's number five in offense.
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: The Yankees number 14. Of course, we know Judge is back,
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: and the Yankees have produced offense in the two games
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: that he's been back, but it is also against Colorado's pitching.
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: Ryan Feltner is going to get the start for Colorado here.
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: He's One of their less bad pitchers, to be honest. 5.91 ERA, 1.58 whip,
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: still not good. He's better on the road, which makes sense,
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: because Coors Field is terrible. He has a 5.36 road ERA,
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: still not good. Pwned batting average on the road is
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: still pretty awful at 300.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's really bad.
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: Feltner, I mean, he's been somewhat okay in his last
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: couple starts.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: I mean, his walk numbers have still been quite bad, though.
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: There's nothing to really like about this here. Colorado's lost
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: his last four starts. His hit rate is way too high.
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: He gives up some home runs here. His walk rate's
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: not really good. His strikeout rate's not good. Really not
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: a lot to like. 1.7 KBB ratio, strikeout walk ratio, 6.8
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: Ks per nine. That's all pretty bad. Numbers against the Yankees, though,
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: are actually not bad. They have six guys who have
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: faced him, 38 at-bats. It's not a huge, I mean,
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: that's not a, Small sample here, really. It's not huge either,
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: but it's not small. They have no extra base hits
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: against them. 12 strikeouts, 2 walks, 158 average, 358 OPS.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: So this Yankees.
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: Lineup has actually not succeeded against Feltner. Does that mean
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: he can actually pitch well here? I mean, I guess
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: it's possible. Max Freed is pitching for the Yankees. He's
• 22:54
  Speaker 5: obviously the better pitcher.
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: 2.73 or a.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: 99 whip is quite good.
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: He's been slightly worse at home with a 3.13 home ERA.
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: But his opponent batting average both home and away is
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: below 200, which is really good. He hasn't been going
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: that deep into a lot of his recent starts, though.
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: So they're kind of limiting him a bit, you know,
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: maybe to just keep him healthy or whatever.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: Maybe it makes sense. He's still not allowing many runs, though.
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: He's allowed one or fewer run in every start going
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: all the way back through the beginning of August. But
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: I think they've been spacing out his starts a little
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: bit more, too. They skipped one start of his, it
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: looks like, in August. Actually, he might have been on
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: the injured list, and then he came back right away
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: because he had a two-week hiatus. I think that was
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: what it was.
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: He was fake injured, probably.
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: And then he came back, and he faced the Red Sox,
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: and he was kind of mediocre in that start, and
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: they limited the start there.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: They still won, but I don't know.
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: And then he pitched well last time, but they actually
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: lost that game against San Diego.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: He's got a really low hit rate, so he's still
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: hard to hit. His walk rate is... Not great, but
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: it's fine.
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is kind of, I would say, okay.
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: Strikeout walk ratio is right at three. Not elite or anything. 8.2
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: Ks for nine, also not elite. Freed is not really
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: an elite pitcher, man, but he does put up pretty
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: good numbers generally. His numbers against Colorado are also good.
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: 28 at bats, 250 average, 573 OPS.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: Six of their hitters have faced him.
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: McCarthy actually hits him well, four for eight, but everybody
• 24:25
  Speaker 5: else in the lineup, Not good, and they have no
• 24:27
  Speaker 5: extra base hits against them. 8-3 strikeout walk ratio, so
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: none of these hitters in either lineup has any extra
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: base hits against the opposing pitcher. I think maybe a
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: first five under makes sense in this game. The full
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: game total is not that high at 8.5. You're probably
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: going to find a 4.5 in the first five. I
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: think it might go under early in this game. Both
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: pitchers do at least have the matchup numbers that support it.
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: I know Feltner is kind of concerning, but I don't know.
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: I think that would be my preferred way of playing
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: this game. The Yankees are heavily public, 95% of the tickets,
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: 93% of the cash on them. They're like minus 320-something here.
• 25:07
  Speaker 5: You can't lay a price like that in baseball. I mean,
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: you just can't do it, even though they should win
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: this game. But they're also not really in a good situation,
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: as I pointed out. So I wouldn't be doing that. Oh,
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: the money's also somewhat on the over. 77% of tickets,
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: 91% of the cash on the over. Like I said,
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: I think under first five makes some sense here, and
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: then avoid Colorado's bullpen. That's kind of what I got
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: in that one. And then Pittsburgh at the White Sox.
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: The White Sox do fall into this category of home
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: team trying to avoid getting swept, and they got a win, man.
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: The White Sox are only two games ahead of Cleveland
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: right now in the AL Central, so it is close.
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: It's a tight race there. Chicago could also wind up
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: getting a wild card. That is also a possibility there.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: They've got to win, though.
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: They've got to avoid getting swept here by Pittsburgh. So
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: I think the motivation falls on the Chicago side here.
• 25:59
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is playing the Cubs next, so it is possible
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: that Pittsburgh just overlooks Chicago in this last game. They're
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: going to be staying in Chicago and playing the Cubs next.
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: That's a bigger deal for them. It's a division series.
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh not going to make the playoffs this year. They
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: might pay more attention to that Cubs series at this
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: point and go after the— like a divisional spoiler type
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: of role here. Although the Cubs are going to make
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: the playoffs anyway, though, even if they lose some games here.
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: That game, by the way, tomorrow, that's a good pitching matchup.
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: Ashcraft and Imanaga, that might wind up being an under,
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: but we'll see. I'm previewing tomorrow already, I know. We'll
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: see what I actually think about it, though, once I
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: look at the matchups and stuff. In this game, I
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: think the White Sox have the better bullpen. White Sox
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Pittsburgh used
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: a lot.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: What is it?
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: It was a bullpen game, I guess. Yeah, because Bashar
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: opened the game or started. They used eight relief pitchers yesterday.
• 27:01
  Speaker 5: That's a lot. Yeah, so I think you've got to
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: give the White Sox a bullpen advantage here. Their bullpen's
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: slightly better, and it's way less used because they actually
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: had a starter pitch yesterday. White Sox number 15 in bullpen.
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh number 19. Neither bullpen is actually that bad, but yeah,
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: I think the White Sox have the edge there. Pittsburgh's
• 27:22
  Speaker 5: number six offensively. They've been struggling for a while now, though.
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: They've been fine in this series, though, offensively. They're tied
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: with Tampa Bay here. White Sox are number nine, tied
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: with Minnesota and the Red Sox offensively here. Jared Jones
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: is pitching for Pittsburgh, so he is an actual starter,
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: but how deep is he going to be able to
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: go here? How much of their bullpen are they going
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: to be able to save with Jones pitching? I think
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: Jones is pretty good. I think he's better than his
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: numbers make him look.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: 4.46 ERA, 1.23 whip.
• 27:51
  Speaker 5: He's... Better ERA-wise on the road, 4.28 road ERA, but
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: 265 opponent batting average on the road is not that good.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: Last start of his was really good.
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: It was at home against Anaheim, but Anaheim sucks, but
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: he had a six-inning shutout against them, which Jake Bennett
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: could not do yesterday for the Red Sox. He put
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox in a huge hole, and then they
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: couldn't climb out of it.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: They almost did.
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: Jones had lost all of his starts in August prior
• 28:20
  Speaker 5: to that and actually well his team had lost all
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: of them he lost most of them and his team
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: had lost seven in a row prior to that so
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: yeah Jones was not pitching well in August but he
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: might kind of be regaining form here.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: I think Jones is not that bad.
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: I watched him a couple years ago, and I thought
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: this guy was going to be good, but then injuries
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: took his entire season away last year. He has a
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: pretty low hit rate here. His walk rate's not that bad.
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is high. So those numbers do tell
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: you he's actually not as bad as his ERA kind
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: of makes it look. 3.3 strikeout walk ratio, 10.5 strikeouts
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: per night. Those numbers are both fine. Against the White Sox,
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: they're 0-4 off him. Only Doyle and Rodgers have ever
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: faced him. 0-4 with four strikeouts in one walk. So
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: every out that they've made has been a strikeout. I mean,
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: it's a very small sample size, so there's not a
• 29:14
  Speaker 5: lot to take away from that. Hagan Smith is getting
• 29:17
  Speaker 5: the start for the White Sox. This is kind of interesting.
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: He's young, and he's got really good numbers here.. 56 ERA,.
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: 94 whip.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: He's got a zero ERA at home. Who is this guy?
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: He's a 23-year-old lefty. He's pretty tall.
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: He has kind of a Red Sox profile. They like
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: these tall lefties. That's what this guy is, 6'3, 235.
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: I don't know exactly how hard he throws, but he
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: was mostly pitching out of the bullpen this year, and
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: he hasn't gone more than three innings, so I don't
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: know how many innings we're going to expect out of
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: him here. But he just pitched actually three times in
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: a row against the Twins. The last two times, I
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: think he was actually the starter?
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: Was he? Hold on, let me see. No, he doesn't
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: have any starts yet.
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that's right, because he got a win last time out,
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: only pitching three innings, so that means he didn't start.
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: But last five innings, he allowed nothing. No runs, two hits,
• 30:13
  Speaker 5: no walks, seven strikeouts. Over the course of the season,
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: he's got 16 innings pitched, five hits allowed, which is
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: really low, 10 walks, which is definitely way too many.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: He's wild. But he also has 23 strikeouts, which is
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: a really high number.
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: Who is this guy and how many innings is he
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: going to pitch is really the question here. Pittsburgh has
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: never seen him before. This guy looks like he does
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: have something. His strikeout walk ratio is not good, 2.3,
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: but K's for nine is really good, 12.9, although a
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: lot of times.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: You do see higher.
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: I mean, you do usually see higher strikeout rates from
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: relief pitchers because they're only going to pitch like one
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: inning and they're going to have their great stuff in
• 30:52
  Speaker 5: that one inning. Whereas with a starter, you're going to
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: see the stuff kind of diminish a little bit, and
• 30:57
  Speaker 5: they kind of have to spread it out a little
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: bit and not go overboard in one particular inning. I
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: think he's actually good. It looks like maybe they're trying
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: to turn him into a starter now. If he is
• 31:09
  Speaker 5: actually starting, this will be his first start that he'll make.
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: If you want to play this game, you might want
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: to pick Jones must start and don't pick a starter
• 31:17
  Speaker 5: for the White Sox because it might be some sort
• 31:20
  Speaker 5: of bullpen setup here where Smith will come in maybe
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: after an opener possibly, but he might actually start, and
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: they might just unleash him. I have no idea, but
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: based on how high his strikeout number is and how
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: few hits he allows, it looks like he's actually pretty good,
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: but I don't know much about him.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: What do we do with this game? I don't know.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: It's a low total, 7.5. The money's kind of coming
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: in on the.
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: Over, though.
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: I think this game looks like kind of a first
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: five under possibility here. 80% of the tickets, 95% of
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: the cash on the over.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: Both pitchers.
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: are pretty unfamiliar to the opposing lineups here, right? Neither
• 31:57
  Speaker 5: team has a hit off of the, off of these
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: opposing pitchers here.
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: So I could see the argument for that.
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: I would not go full game because Pittsburgh's bullpen is
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: absolutely trashed here. Uh, but first five under, I think
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: makes some sense to me in this one, the pitchers
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: might actually do well. The total kind of supports it
• 32:13
  Speaker 5: being so low at seven and a half, but you're
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: going to have to Take three, three and a half
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: if you do that.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: The money's also back in Pittsburgh.
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: 51% of the tickets, 84% of the cash on Pittsburgh.
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: I don't think I agree with that. I think I
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: would just play the White Sox to just find a
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: way to get it done, avoid the sweep. And I
• 32:31
  Speaker 5: would go full game if I did that because Pittsburgh's
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: bullpen is just totally shot. So I don't know how
• 32:38
  Speaker 5: long Smith is going to go in this game if
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: he even starts, but I think just from a situational perspective,
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: that might be the right move is to look towards
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: the White Sox. But yeah, I think the under, like
• 32:50
  Speaker 5: first five might be preferable there. All right, that's it
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: for baseball. Five games, it takes me a half.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: Hour to get through it. I'm going to have a
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: play today.
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: It is in the NFL game on Netflix in Australia,
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: which is ridiculous.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: This game's 8.35 p.m.
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: Eastern.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: Which will be a 5.35 p.m. Pacific time game.
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: This is San Francisco and L.A., so we got Pacific
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: time teams going here. And this is not going to
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: be the same as, like, a London game, really. So, like,
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: I think the Rams played in London last year, and
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: Sean McVay is stupid in how he does this. So
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: he's not going to have them adjust their biological clock.
• 33:30
  Speaker 5: So these teams are doing something completely different, whereas San Francisco,
• 33:34
  Speaker 5: because it's the first game of the season... Shanahan was like, nope,
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: we're going out to Australia and we're going to adjust
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: to the time zone. So they literally went out there
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: a week ago. So San Francisco has been out there,
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: I believe, since September 4th. San Francisco has been in
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: Australia adjusting to the time zone. And you've seen teams
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: do that in the London games, and it has worked
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: out well for them. Although, yes, the Rams won in
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: London last year doing the McVay approach. His approach is insane.
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: They're not going to adjust to the time zone. That's
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: his approach because I think he's kind of thinking, we're
• 34:08
  Speaker 5: not just focusing on this one game. So what I'm
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: going to say is, in this game, yeah, San Francisco
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: is going to be adjusted for this game, which I
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: think is going to help them here. But I think
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: you want to look to probably go against San Francisco
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: in their next game because they're going to have to.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: Readjust again in a week and play again. You know
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: what I mean?
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: So both of these teams could be in a bad
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: spot after this game, but I think San Francisco might
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: be worse off.
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: So that's why McVay is doing it this way.
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure it's because he wants their bio clocks
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: to still be on Pacific time for their next game,
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: which I presume is going to, I don't even know.
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: I don't know if it's in the Pacific times on
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: or not. I don't know who they play next, but, um, yes,
• 34:49
  Speaker 5: that's what McVay is doing though. The Rams flew out
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: last night and McVay is basically just saying, Nope, we're
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: going to fly out.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: We're going to not adjust.
• 34:58
  Speaker 5: We're going to sleep at our normal times that we would,
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: if we're on the Pacific coast, sleep on the plane, whatever, um,
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: play this game, and then we're going to come back home.
• 35:07
  Speaker 5: So it's going to be completely different. So this game
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: is going to be at 10 a.m. or 10.35 a.m.
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: Australia time. And by the way, Australia is 17 hours
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: ahead of the Pacific time zone.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: So this is going to be, it's not like London.
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: Where, at least from the Eastern time zone, you're only
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: changing like five hours, I think, is the time zone
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: difference there.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: This is 17.
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: For the Pacific, even for Pacific teams going to London,
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: it would be like eight or whatever hours.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: This is 17.
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: That's insane because Australia is on the other side of
• 35:41
  Speaker 5: the international date line. So it's like time zone wise,
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: it's like you're flying the long way to get there.
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: You get what I'm saying?
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: Because, yeah, we're on the other side of the international
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: date line from Australia. So this game is going to
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: be played tonight, our time, and it's going to be
• 35:59
  Speaker 5: tomorrow morning, Australia time. It's a Friday morning game in Australia.
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: So what we're saying here basically is that San Francisco
• 36:05
  Speaker 5: is going to play this game in the morning based
• 36:08
  Speaker 5: on their biological clock. They're going to be adjusted to
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: the time zone. And the question is, is that better
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: than what L.A. is doing, where they're going to be playing,
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: like it's a Pacific Coast nighttime game, 8.35, which yes,
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: or it'll be 5.35 Pacific time, which yes, they're used
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: to doing that, of course, because a lot of these
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: nighttime games are at 8 p.m.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: Eastern. So which one is better is the question.
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: I think the morning play is better.
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: I think that's when you have the most energy.
• 36:39
  Speaker 5: Like, you're going to get up, you know, 6, 7
• 36:42
  Speaker 5: in the morning, whatever, get your stuff ready, get done,
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: you have your energy, and then you're going to play.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? That's why people work out
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: in the morning.
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: You're going to have your energy there, whereas L.A., you know,
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: they'd be playing kind of an early evening game, which
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: is fine-ish, but, you know.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: This is what I'm going to do, man. You probably
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: know where I'm going with this. And it's not just because...
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: I think the time zone thing might be a little
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: bit overblown or the way the teams are handling it.
• 37:09
  Speaker 5: But I am going to give out a play on
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: the 49ers here, plus four. I'll talk about what happened
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: in that New England-Seattle game, actually, to close the show here.
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: But yes, I like San Francisco here, not just because
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: I think they're handling the time zone difference better, but
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: I think the Rams are... They're like one of the
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: most hyped teams coming into the season because they got
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: Miles Garrett. So they really stacked their defense with Garrett,
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: you know, who's basically the sack lead. He has the
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: sack record at this point, right? Like he set the
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: sack record last year, and now he's on L.A.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: He's on a winning team.
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: And they're bringing Aaron Donald back out of retirement. And
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: we know Aaron Donald was a beast back in the day,
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: but he's not ready. Aaron Donald is actually not even
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: traveling for this game because he's not ready yet. So
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: Aaron Donald is not playing in this game. He has
• 37:58
  Speaker 5: not made the trip with L.A. here.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: He's not ready yet.
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: I don't know exactly when he's going to start playing,
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: but he won't be there.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. I think L.A.
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: Is a little bit overhyped, even though I did say
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: that I think they have a pretty good chance to
• 38:11
  Speaker 5: win the Super Bowl this year, relatively. I mean, I
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: know they're like 5-1 or whatever. They have the best
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: odds to win it, though. And they were one of
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: my picks to potentially win the whole thing. But in
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: Game 1 like this, in a weird environment, I don't
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: like this that much. And Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco's coach,
• 38:29
  Speaker 5: he has the upper hand over McVay in regular season matchups,
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: although I know recently McVay has had more wins.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: But when it started out, Shanahan had won a bunch
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: of those games. Up until the last couple.
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: Years, the Rams kind of evened it out a little bit.
• 38:42
  Speaker 5: And last year, the teams went 1-1 against each other.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: But if you remember, San Francisco.
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: Didn't have Brock Purdy in either of those games, and
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: he will play in this game. Mack Jones was the
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: quarterback in both games between these two teams last year,
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: and San Francisco won the one in L.A. and then
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: lost the game at home. Jones actually was pretty good
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: in both games. So San Francisco, they were able to
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: put up some offense against this Ram defense, although I
• 39:08
  Speaker 5: know the Rams didn't have Miles Garrett last year, but
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: they still had a decent defense. You know, San Francisco's...
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: been good against him is what I'm saying. Shanahan knows
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: how to coach against McVay. Like he seems to know
• 39:19
  Speaker 5: his tendencies. I believe Shanahan's record against McVay. I believe
• 39:25
  Speaker 5: his regular season record against McVay is like 10 and
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: 6 or something like that he like he has a
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: winning record and you're only asking San Francisco to cover
• 39:35
  Speaker 5: here and last year San Francisco won one of the
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: two without Brock Purdy Purdy is back now yes San
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: Francisco has a ton of injuries we know this but
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: they're kind of a they're kind of a in a
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: position where they can overcome some of that.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: Like, Ayuk is out again. Pearsall is out again. Whatever.
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: But they picked up a lot of wide receivers here, man.
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: They got Mike Evans and they got Debo back. So
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: it's not like they're lacking for wide receivers here. Like
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: even with Kirk, Ayuk, and Pierce all out, their wide
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: receiver core is still not really that bad. Kittle looks
• 40:10
  Speaker 5: like he's ready to go, which is good because he's
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: on my fantasy team. I don't know how good he's
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: going to be this year, though. But Christian McCaffrey, I guess,
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: is ready to go. And Brock Purdy is playing. So
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: they have this basically looks like the 49ers team that
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: we kind of know that was good over those years.
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: Plus, they have Mike Evans, so they do have that
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: big play guy there, even though he's a little bit older.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: And their defense is in okay shape here. At least
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: Bosa looks like he is playing. Warner and Greenlaw, those
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: are the main three guys on this defense.
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: And it looks like they're all going to be playing,
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: even though they do have injuries here. And I do
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: think it's the electrical substation, man. People get mad at
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: me for saying it, but San Francisco has a historic
• 40:51
  Speaker 5: amount of injuries here.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: However....
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: And Trent Williams, their best offensive lineman, has been hurt
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: recently too, but he's back too. So this is a
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: healthier San Francisco team than I think what people are
• 41:04
  Speaker 5: really kind of giving them credit for.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: So I kind of like that.
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: And then the Rams, I mean, their offense is going
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: to be kind of the same as what it was
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: last year, although Stafford is a year older, of course.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, I mean. I like the Niners here, man.
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: I think it's going to be a competitive game. I
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: like that the Niners are going to be adjusted to
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: the time zone. I think that's the better approach here.
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: To me, it's like San Francisco is really, really trying
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: to win this game, whereas the Rams are trying to focus.
• 41:32
  Speaker 5: San Francisco is being a high-time preference, but I think
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: that's good in an individual game.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Like, okay, focus on this one game and win it.
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: If you're going to bet on this game, I don't
• 41:42
  Speaker 5: give a shit what San Francisco is going to do
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: next week.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: In fact, I'm probably going to fade them.
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: Next week you know what I mean especially if they
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: win this game so that's what I think whereas the
• 41:52
  Speaker 5: Rams seem to be trying to take the whole season
• 41:55
  Speaker 5: into account here and basically say well we're not going
• 41:57
  Speaker 5: to fuck up our biological clocks for one game right
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: San Francisco is like going all out to get this
• 42:03
  Speaker 5: game it seems like so to me it seems like
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: the motivation is kind of there for it and we're
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: getting four points here so or three and a half
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: I mean I would try to find the four it
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: is out there in a You might be able to
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: wait as well and find a four because I would
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: still take the three and a half, though. But it
• 42:22
  Speaker 5: looks like it's a pros versus Joes type of situation here.
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: And you know NFL, one single NFL game, you know
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: this game's going to be the biggest handle of the day, right?
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: Because all we have otherwise is five baseball games. There's
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: only like two of them at night. There's a college
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: football game that nobody's going to watch because it's Miami
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: against Florida A & M. I'm not even covering it
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: on the show. Miami's like a close to a 60-point favorite.
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: You know, it's a FBS-FCS game, so I don't give
• 42:50
  Speaker 5: a shit. Although I'm going to have probably a play
• 42:53
  Speaker 5: in an FBS-FCS game this week, which I might have
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: like one of those every year, or less than that
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: every year, but whatever.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: This game, the Rams, I'm all over the place.
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: The Rams have 68% of the tickets on them, 64%
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: of the cash on San Francisco, so the money's backing
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: San Francisco here. It looks like the Lion book does
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: have a four out there right now, and so does.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: The Scoreboard book, which used to be the ESPN one.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: Those two books look like they have it.
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: This website looks like, I don't know if there are
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: any more books to the right of the F book here,
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: but whatever. Anyway, the money's also coming in on the under.
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: It dropped off of 49 down to 48.5. I think
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: 47 is more of a key number than those two numbers, though.
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: I don't have a great feel for over under, um,
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: both games last year, I believe went over this total.
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: I think San Francisco, the game that they wanted, um,
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: I believe was 28 to 23.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: And then the.
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: Rams game that they won was like 42 to 26.
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: So I don't think I'd really want to be on
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: an under here, even though I know last night's game
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: was really low scoring.
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: I did like the under in last night's game.
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: Um, although some injuries happened that made it more likely, uh, but,
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: Not Isaiah, likely, who I think is on the Giants
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: now with Harbaugh.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I think he went over there with Harbaugh.
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: Anyway, unders do tend to happen more in game one,
• 44:18
  Speaker 5: like week one of the NFL season, because the offenses
• 44:22
  Speaker 5: might start a little bit slow.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: They're not quite ready to go.
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: I don't know about with these two teams, though. I mean,
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: they're not changing their offenses very much here. So a
• 44:31
  Speaker 5: lot of these guys are just probably ready to go.
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: They're familiar with each other. The time zone might affect
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: the offensive timing here still, though.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. This game is in Melbourne, Australia,
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: by the way, for those wondering.
• 44:42
  Speaker 5: So it's not on the eastern coast of Australia, I
• 44:50
  Speaker 5: don't believe.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: I think it's slightly closer to.
• 44:54
  Speaker 5: I think it's between the eastern coast of it. It's
• 44:59
  Speaker 5: like south central, I'm pretty sure, is where Melbourne is.
• 45:02
  Speaker 5: If I have my Australia geography right here, I think
• 45:05
  Speaker 5: it's in southern Australia or whatever the fuck that territory is.
• 45:09
  Speaker 5: Correct me if I'm wrong. Maybe it's in Victoria or whatever.
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: Correct me if I'm wrong. Anyway, yeah, so that's where
• 45:15
  Speaker 5: this game is. And yeah, that's all I got on
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: this game, I think, so. yeah, we're going to take,
• 45:24
  Speaker 5: we are taking the 49ers here and I'm kind of
• 45:26
  Speaker 5: pissed because the splash sports pick five contests that I'm
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: in doesn't let you pick these first two games.
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: They're not available.
• 45:34
  Speaker 5: Like the whole contest starts on Sunday, which is bullshit
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: because every other week you can pick the Thursday night game.
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: If you want to, you should be, why wouldn't you
• 45:41
  Speaker 5: be able to? So I wanted to like put this
• 45:43
  Speaker 5: one on it, but you can't, um, that pisses me off.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: So whatever. Um, Yeah, that's it.
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: And what I will say is last night, as I
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: was alluding to, major injuries happened last night. Sam Darnold
• 45:57
  Speaker 5: took a hit, and I believe he got concussed, if
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: I'm not mistaken, but I'm not entirely sure. He took
• 46:02
  Speaker 5: a hit on the second drive of the game, and
• 46:04
  Speaker 5: then he was out for the rest of the game.
• 46:06
  Speaker 5: So Darnold went down really early, although Drew Locke actually
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: played well as the backup there. Drew Locke's very experienced
• 46:13
  Speaker 5: in the NFL, so he looked good.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: Um, and AJ Brown got hurt. I think it was
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: an arm injury.
• 46:19
  Speaker 5: Maybe I might get that wrong too, but he got
• 46:22
  Speaker 5: hurt early in the game too for the Patriots. So,
• 46:25
  Speaker 5: so Seattle was down their quarterback and the Patriots were
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: down their number one wide receiver really early in the game.
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: And I think that did have some effect on the offense.
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: I think the game was going to go under anyway, though.
• 46:36
  Speaker 5: And then the Patriots blew a 10, nothing lead. If
• 46:38
  Speaker 5: you watch that game, they're winning 10, nothing lead. Looked
• 46:41
  Speaker 5: like they were maybe about to go in and score again,
• 46:43
  Speaker 5: and Drake May was making mistakes, man. He threw three
• 46:46
  Speaker 5: picks in that game yesterday.
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: He was not good.
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: And people are pointing out something I probably should have mentioned.
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: I should have mentioned some of the trends in that
• 46:55
  Speaker 5: handicap yesterday, so I apologize. But Drake May is now
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: 0-12 against winning teams during the regular season.
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: That is correct.
• 47:03
  Speaker 5: Last regular season, he did not beat any team with
• 47:06
  Speaker 5: a winning record, which... That kind of surprised me because
• 47:10
  Speaker 5: they did beat Buffalo once last year. So I was like, well,
• 47:13
  Speaker 5: they beat Buffalo in the regular season. So I thought
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: they had one win with him. So that didn't totally
• 47:18
  Speaker 5: make sense to me. And then, of course, the Patriots
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: did win two games against winning teams in the playoffs.
• 47:23
  Speaker 5: But still, and then they lost to one, Seattle. But, yeah,
• 47:27
  Speaker 5: May does not have a good record against winning teams.
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: Patriots did have a really easy schedule last year. I
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: think it's somewhere in between. Like, May is not terrible.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: But I don't think he's as good as what people
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: thought he was last year either. You know what I mean?
• 47:40
  Speaker 5: But we'll see. And some other trends that were going
• 47:43
  Speaker 5: on in that game yesterday. Some of the guys on
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: the reffing crew had a lot of trends towards the
• 47:48
  Speaker 5: underdog and the under. So those were both of my
• 47:52
  Speaker 5: leans yesterday. And if you got the three and a half, you.
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: Did cover with the Patriots. If you got a three,
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: you pushed and probably should have won. Although.
• 48:01
  Speaker 5: Seattle had a chance to win with a touchdown near
• 48:04
  Speaker 5: the end, and they got held to a field goal
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: near the end there. So that was very good for
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: the plus three and a half betters there. The under
• 48:10
  Speaker 5: was a short thing, though, and I did lean that
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: way as well. But some of the reffing crew had
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: under trends behind them as well. And one of the
• 48:19
  Speaker 5: other things I was going to point out is that both,
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: I said this yesterday, I think both the Patriots and
• 48:25
  Speaker 5: Seattle are both regressing defensively. this year and the Patriots
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: under season win total was one of the plays I
• 48:30
  Speaker 5: actually gave out on the show as far as the
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: win totals. Um, so that's off to a correct start
• 48:36
  Speaker 5: with a loss in their first game. Um, which I
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: think that number was nine and a half. Maybe, maybe
• 48:41
  Speaker 5: if you found a 10 on it, um, but where
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: was I going with this? Um, Yes, I think both
• 48:47
  Speaker 5: teams are not as good as they looked last year,
• 48:49
  Speaker 5: Patriots and Seattle. Seattle's lost some key players, too, so
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: I think they are going to be worse this year.
• 48:55
  Speaker 5: Patriots actually improved slightly, which is why that line was
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: not close to where it was in the Super Bowl
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: last year. But the other thing I was going to
• 49:04
  Speaker 5: say is the Super Bowl winner usually does kind of
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: bad in week one because they're kind of overconfident. They
• 49:09
  Speaker 5: have their ring ceremony, whatever. But the Super Bowl loser
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: has also been really bad in week one. Before last night,
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: the Super Bowl loser, the last 26 times was 6-20.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: Against the spread.
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: So that was a trend against the Patriots in the
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: game last night, which I should have mentioned it. I'm
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: not a huge trends guy, but sometimes when they come up,
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: if they make enough sense, I'm like, yeah, that does
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: make sense.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: So I like to kind of point those out. And
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: sometimes they do.
• 49:34
  Speaker 5: Help like sometimes they're legit you have to figure out
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: like is this trend legitimate right like is there a
• 49:39
  Speaker 5: reason for it and i kind of think there is
• 49:41
  Speaker 5: like the super bowl loser just usually has a hangover
• 49:44
  Speaker 5: the next season you know what i mean like i
• 49:45
  Speaker 5: don't know it's just like a not a good mental
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: situation for them the super bowl winner it's kind of
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: like they're overconfident so i think they have kind of
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: a bad record against the spread as well in week
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: one but whatever um.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: We'll have some fun this weekend, man. We need to
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: get some football wins here.
• 50:02
  Speaker 5: So we will have the college football show coming up
• 50:05
  Speaker 5: tomorrow night. And then the NFL show, I got to
• 50:08
  Speaker 5: figure out what I want to do because I'm going
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: to be out Saturday night. So if I come back
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: and do the show really late, I'm not sure, or
• 50:16
  Speaker 5: maybe I have to do it.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: Hmm.
• 50:18
  Speaker 5: I got to figure it out because I don't want
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: to do both shows back to back, uh, tomorrow night,
• 50:22
  Speaker 5: unless maybe I do one earlier in the day tomorrow.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: I got to figure it out, man. I got to
• 50:26
  Speaker 5: figure out what I want to do with the, uh,
• 50:29
  Speaker 5: The show's here. It's brutal for me going to a concert,
• 50:33
  Speaker 5: coming back really late, and then also doing the show.
• 50:35
  Speaker 5: I feel sick right now after I was out late
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: at a concert the other night and didn't get enough sleep,
• 50:41
  Speaker 5: so whatever.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: I've got to get out of here, man.
• 50:43
  Speaker 5: This show took longer than I wanted it to with
• 50:45
  Speaker 5: only five baseball games and one NFL game here.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: But everybody, enjoy the games tonight. If you're going.
• 50:52
  Speaker 5: To play the play that I give out here, you'll
• 50:53
  Speaker 5: have some action on the NFL game. It'll be my
• 50:56
  Speaker 5: first NFL play that I have so far.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: I like it.
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: It's a pros versus Joes scenario, so we'll start with that.
• 51:03
  Speaker 5: We'll take the 49ers and their time zone adjustment scheme here.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Learn to tone on Twitter.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: Learn to tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: Let's boost this channel.
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: If you subscribe, you'll get notified when I go live
• 51:15
  Speaker 5: with all these late degenerate hour football shows I'm going
• 51:18
  Speaker 5: to be doing throughout football season. I give out all
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: my NFL picks as well, though I will say that
• 51:25
  Speaker 5: some of them will change, but I do usually have
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: a decent opinion on most of them but i do
• 51:29
  Speaker 5: market read like on on sunday morning if i don't
• 51:32
  Speaker 5: have a good feel for a particular game i am
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: watching the market to try to determine what my pick
• 51:36
  Speaker 5: is actually going to be in that one so i
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: do the espn pool where you have to pick every
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: game but usually i do well with that and then
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: i'm in the my pick five like super contest style
• 51:46
  Speaker 5: thing that i'm in with splash or whatever that i
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: won money in last year is um like those plays
• 51:51
  Speaker 5: i usually have like like i those are not going
• 51:53
  Speaker 5: to be the ones that i'm like wavering between you
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: know what i mean except if there's a number that
• 51:58
  Speaker 5: changed and it's way off. I might just make a
• 52:00
  Speaker 5: numbers play in that one instead, but whatever. Anyway, I
• 52:06
  Speaker 5: think that's going to do it for now. Oh, listen
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: on audio. The audio numbers have been going up, which
• 52:10
  Speaker 5: is interesting. I don't know who's finding it over there,
• 52:13
  Speaker 5: but yeah, listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: It helps me out.
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: It makes me very little amount of money right now,
• 52:19
  Speaker 5: but if we get way more listeners over there, that'll
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: help me out.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: You do have to deal with ads, though.
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: And it's very time-sensitive to have to listen to this.
• 52:30
  Speaker 5: I usually put it up right after I do the show, though.
• 52:33
  Speaker 5: So get it out there to the people. What else
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: do I have? Covered in Uke is my Uke channel
• 52:39
  Speaker 5: on YouTube. Patreon.com slash LearnToTota if you want to support
• 52:42
  Speaker 5: me that way. LoserCast Tuesday nights. New York Giants G-Spot podcast.
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: Don't know if it's happening or not, but we've got
• 52:51
  Speaker 5: to figure that out.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it.
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: Peace.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: Let somebody know you do not have to lose this
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: round alone.
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Hold on, not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: Let me pull you out That.
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: Bad luck bites hard But it don't.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Get the crown Hold on, hold.
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: On Stay with me now
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo