Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NCAAF + NFL Best Bets Thursday 11/6/25

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NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NCAAF + NFL Best Bets Thursday 11/6/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with bookends the slump
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hat man.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I can possibly have with you,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as I always am until I die at least oh
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. The slump yesterdays, the
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up? Everybody's sewed
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: back with you? Better off dead? Thursday, November sixth I'm
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit early today. I woke up early on
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: like whatever, I'll just figure out what I want to
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: do today. We'll get the show going. You can't even
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: see my eyes because of this hat, so that's awesome.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Hopefully my voice sounds alright here, I mean, other than
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: the fact that my voice is completely dead as always.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Good day on the show yesterday, mister Pinsey, Thank you, sir.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Yes yesterday might have been the best day on the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: show that I've ever done. Like, I just wish I
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: bet everything because I don't even know if there was
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: a single thing I was wrong about, to be honest,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Like I had both college football games right, I had
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: almost every single NBA game right, Nahl. I think I
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: was right about all but maybe one of them. I
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: was getting everything right yesterday. The one college basketball game
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: that didn't make my card that I kind of liked.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: That was close loyal and Merrymount only covered the initial
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: number on that the seven and a half, So if
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: you did play that one, you had to have gotten
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: to it early because it closed like eight or nine,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: so they did not closed I think nine, so they
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: didn't cover the nine. Then won by eight. But the
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: actual plays that I had, yeah, I mean Georgia, that
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: was laughable. Georgia was up twenty six at the half,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, all right, they just have to just
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: buckle down put it away. Where Maryland Dstern Short down
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Maryland Eastern Short only scored I think twenty nine points
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: in the entire game. They didn't top twenty and either
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: have a Georgia wound up winning the game by sixty five,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: so that even though that line was up to like
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: thirty four that range by the time the game went off,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: that didn't even matter. That was just a ridiculously easy win.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: I you see, Davis wasn't great early on in the game,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: but they turned it on. They had a really nice
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: second half. I wound up winning that game fairly easily,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: and then Brooklyn nets outright win baby. I told you
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I get stubborn. I'm like, yeah, I'm gonna play the
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn Nets. I'm like, oh, you're challenging me and Jeffrey.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, how about Brooklyn wins the game outright?
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: How about that that I'll call for an outright upset
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: with the winless Brooklyn Net team, And that is what happened.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: They won outright. Yeah, a bunch of those other games
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: I think I got correct. The Celtics covered in a
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: blowout win. Cleveland was correct, although I think they barely covered.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I got the Knicks correct. One thing that I forgot
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: to point out, which I did point out in the comments,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: was that was actually a reverse injured player spot. I'm
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: pretty sure from Minnesota as well, because Anthony Edwards came back,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: so you knew that that would shrink the line on
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: the Knicks even more. I think it went down to
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: three and a half for three, and then that means
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: that Minnesota is gonna have to get used to having
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: him play again. He's gonna have to get used to
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: it again. They might like take the foot off the
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: gas a little bit, whatever the case may be. So
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: that made me like the Knicks even a little bit more. There.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Maybe I should have given another as a play. I mean,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: yesterday I was right about everything. Dude. The Washington Capitals
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: was the closest to a play for me in hockey.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: They won six to one. I was right about the
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Blackhawks as well, which that was a nice market read
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: on that, one of the market reads that I faded.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: It seemed like I was right about those two. Let's
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: get into today. Today, I'm gonna have four college basketball plays,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: and hopefully I'm not going too crazy here. I mean,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: the boards starting to open up. I'm starting to see
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: some situations, so I'm like, all right, why not? And
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: then we're gonna have one hockey play, and then that's it.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: There's only one NBA game and I am not interested
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: in it. College football, I'll give up some opinions. Don't
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: think I want to have a play on either of those.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: And then there is an NFL game tonight, which I
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: don't have a play on that either, and it's a
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly one at least well yeah, I mean one
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: of the teams is not bad, but it's still an
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: ugly football game. All right, College basketball is wre will
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: start here just as this tradition. I mean, we still
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: have a lot of like Division two teams getting involved,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: including one at eleven thirty am with a Division two
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: team against Loyole and Maryland, so enjoy that, and then
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: an afternoon game with Wittier against Call State Bakersfield, another
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: D two versus D one matchup. First play I'm gonna
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: give out is at six thirty PM. And I don't
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: know what the number actually is on this one right now,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: because I could see what it looks like on the
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: pregame screen here, but the books, like I'm in Massachusetts,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: I don't see any numbers in any of the books
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: right now. I didn't really look at the offshores or
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: anything like that, but I like Long Island plus the
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: points here it looks like they're gonna be about a
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: two and a half point underdog if the line is different.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm gonna say to not play this,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: but iupuy flip from plus two to minus two and
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: a half, and I just don't understand why they would
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: even deserve to be a favorite here. I think it
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: might just be all recency biased, but this number might
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: not actually be what it winds up being like. It
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: might wind up being Long Island as a slight favorite.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: If it's still in that pick the winner price. I
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: probably still like this one. Ken Bam as Long Island
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: as the better team he has. Iupuy is like one
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: of the worst twenty teams in the country. Although I
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: know it's early so you can't really put that much
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: stock into what ken Bum's ratings are right now because
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: there's just not enough data to go on. A. Long
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Island lost to Notre Dame in their opener at Notre Dame.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's anything really surprising to see in
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: that one. I mean, they were fifteen and a half
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: point underdogs. They lost, they didn't cover, they weren't horrendous
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: in the game, but it was just expected. Although actually
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: this was kind of an outlier though. Even though LU
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: did get dominated on the boards, Notre Dame shot forty
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: nine point one percent from the field, fifty one point
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: nine percent from three and actually lost the turnover battles.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So this is a bit of an outlier game actually,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: where it looked like Notre Dame maybe shouldn't have won
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: by as much as they did. It was just mostly
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: just the field goal percentages. Even though yes they're the
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: bigger teams that they dominated the boards too, but Long
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Island had a very bad shooting game as well. Though
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: sometimes you gotta be careful with saying this is a
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: complete outlier because in the I mean, in the NBA,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: you could definitely say that because there's so much parody
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: in the NBA, But in college basketball, you do have
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: to look a little bit into well, this team just
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: kind of got dominated by a better team and that's
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: why their shooting percentages were so low. But still, l
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: i U thirty eight point two percent from the field
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: thirty three point three thirty three point three percent from
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: three is not that much an outlier, but thirty eight
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: point two percent from the field really really low, So
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I think you got to expect them to shoot better
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: against a bad Iupui team that didn't play any defense
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: in their first game. But all I hear about Iupuy
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: is everybody's just everybody's talking about, oh my god, like
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Ohio State beat this good Iupui team, And I'm like,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: wait what because Ohio State gave up one hundred two
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: points to Iupuy. And this is basically the crux of
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: why I want to fade Iupuy here, because they are
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: not good and the fact they put up one hundred
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: and two against Ohio State, I think is more damning
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: of Ohio State than it is anything to do with
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: like Iupui actually being any good. And they still lost
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: the game by double digits. They covered as Ohio State
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: was a thirty three and a half point favorite, and
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: they only won by sixteen. The game wasn't so close
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: that it was like, oh, you know, I don't even
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: see the where's the I hate how they put the
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: game the win probability up here instead of the game flow.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, the game wasn't that close. But still, I
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: mean Iupui was within ten points late in the game,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: so they were still kind of in this game against
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Ohio State, which you know is a huge game for Iupui,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: and they did play well. They shot fifty percent from
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: the field. Ohio State shot sixty three percent from the field,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: so that's a major field goal outlier there. Although yeah,
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: that sort of indicates that maybe Ohio State should have
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: been even closer to losing this game. Yeah, but I
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: just think the fact that people see Iupui put up
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: this many points against Ohio State, they're just gonna be
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: way overvalued in the marketplace because of that in my opinion, Like,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I just saw people calling them good, and I'm like, dude,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: they're one of the worst twenty teams in Division one
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: right now, Like they're almost always one of the absolute
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: worst teams in Division one. I don't really see a
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: reason why that would have changed significantly at all. I
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: just think they stepped it up. I think it was
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: a weird game, kind of an outlier. I think Ohio
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: State maybe their defense is not good this year. I
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: don't know. But after that, now, yes it is long,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: it is iupui's home opener, but even so, you're coming
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: off a game where you put up over one hundred
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: against Ohio State. Man. And again that's also a situation
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: where when you have a team that looks really good
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: in a loss, you tend to want to fade that
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: team in the next game. That is the case with
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: IUPUY here. And they also actually have a huge game
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: up next two days from now on Saturday, they got
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: to play Butler, and Butler's one of the big boys
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: in the state of Indiana. Iup UY or actually there
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: IU Indianapolis. Now that's a huge game for iupuy because
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: not only is that an in state Big Brothers situation there,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: but it's an in city big brother situation. So I
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: think this is a sandwich spot that iupuy is in.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: I think it's bad, dude, Like I'm not going to
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: fade a team in their home opener very often, but
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I think this is a situation where you do want
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: to do it. So and Long Island, at least, according
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: to ken Bum is actually like about one hundred ranking
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: spots better than iupuy. He has iupuy just really really bad,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: which is again the case almost every single year. Take
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Long Island, although again we don't really know what the
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: number is gonna be, Like, yes, you gotta watch that
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: one throughout the day. All right, We've got a bunch
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: of other d two teams playing each other, you know,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, some of these games are just total mismatches
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: between bad and like small conference teams and bigger conference teams. Whatever.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Illinois State in Ohio is at least a competitively lined games,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: so it's somewhat interesting. I'm not gonna be one of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: my plays, but Illinois State actually hasn't even played yet
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Ohio loss to Arkansas State in their open or Arkansas
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: State pretty good basketball team, I mean, they've been in
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: the mix, like potentially winning the Sun Belt title like
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: multiple years in a row, so that's not really a
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: bad loss. Ohio losing even though it was their home
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: open or they lost by four to Arkansas State. I
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: could kind of see this going both ways. You could
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: argue that was a big game for them, and now
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: they have Saint Mary's and Louisville coming up after this,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: so maybe they don't play that well against Illinois State here,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: but Illinois State's coming in cold because they haven't played yet.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: So sometimes I do like to look towards the team
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: that already has a game under their belts, So I
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: could kind of see this going both ways. So it's
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit difficult to handicap this one with the
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: way that I do things. Ohio has actually flipped from
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: a one and a half point dog going through the
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: pick them, so they're basically flipping to being the favorite here.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: So it looks like some money at least early has
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: come in on Ohio, although in these small basketball games
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: that the public isn't really getting involved in, you gotta
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: kind of take that with a little bit of a
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: grain of salt, because yes, that move was likely professional money.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: But you don't know if they did that at like
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: a lower limit just to try to set something up,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: although in this case, if that was the case, it
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: would probably just be the guys that try to play
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: the money line, like both sides being an underdog, just
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: to try to guarantee a small profit because right around
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: a Pickham price there's no real significant number there necessarily,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: so even though it is basketball, every point matters a
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: little bit. But yeah, so the money's saying, Ohio State,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, excuse me, Ohio. I'm not quite sure that
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I agree with it. Again, I think they do have
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: this game surrounded by bigger games, so I kind of
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: lean against it slightly, but I don't really have a
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: strong opinion on that. It's just kind of an interesting one.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: Central Connecticut's playing against Quinnipiac. Quinnipiac is a pretty big
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: favor here. That's an in state Connecticut. I don't want
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: to say rivalry, but Connecticut game. There. At least Quinnipiac
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: is coming off playing Saint John's, so they started the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: season with a big game. They of course got blown out,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: but that's not surprising obviously, because Saint John's is the
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: significantly better team Quinnipiac. You could argue they have a
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: bigger game up next against Yale as well, so this
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: does look a little bit Sandwich me because maybe they
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: do overload Central Connecticut, who is basically a little brother
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: to them in the state at this point. Central Connecticut
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: being in the Northeastern Conference, which I forgot to mention
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: them as one of the worst conferences because I mentioned
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: the SWACK and the MEAC, but the NEC is really
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: bad as well, so uh, sorry to the NEC. I
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: forgot to give you your accolades for being one of the
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: worst conferences. So yeah, I would kind of lean to
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: taking the points with Central Connecticut here. I mean, I
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: could see Quinnepiac looking ahead to Yale, and Quinnipiac is
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: in Hamden, Connecticut, which is really close to New Haven.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: So Yale is I think a bigger game for them
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: in Yale's of course in the IVY, so they're in
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: a better conference than not. Quinnepiac is in the matt Ac.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Not to be confused with the max Central Connecticut beat
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: whoever the hell the VTSJ Who the hell is that?
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: I have no idea? Virginia, tex San Jose is what
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna call them. So they beat some Division two
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: team in a blowout to start, so they have a
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: little bit of momentum. Mott State Johnson is who that is? Yeah,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: great whatever. Yeah. In this game, Quidipiek, I think is
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: about an eight point favorite. Yeah, they're down for May
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: and half to seven and a half. So the money
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: seems to be actually agreeing with me and taking the
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: points with Central Connecticut in that one slightly in that
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: game that way, uh lemoy and at Xavier, this actually
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: is close to being a play for me. I would
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: lay the points with Xavier here. Now Xavier has a
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: new coach because they lost Sean Miller, as I pointed
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: out to Texas, so there are gonna be some growing
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: pains here for Xavier, so you might worry a little
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: bit about that. But they just almost lost to Maris
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: in their first game. Xavier was a double digit favorite
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half. So when you see a team
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: that's a team that was a big favorite like that
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: and they almost lost the game, you do tend to
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: want to look to play on that team in the
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: next game. Although again Xavier lost their coach and a
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: couple of their players over to Texas. Xavier was horrific
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: in this game, shooting thirty four percent from the field
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: twenty six point nine percent from three. And when you
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: do you do that as the better team, like, that's
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a major, major outlier. They just had a horrific shooting
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: game that I think is probably not gonna be replicated again.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: And I think because they had a bad game as
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: a double digit favorite, I think they're gonna show up
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: focused where normally they might not be against a bad
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: team like Lemoyne, who I think is in that Northeastern Conference. Leamoyn,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: I mean you could argue they're gonna show up as well.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: They're off to a one to oh start with a
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: win over some New York Division two team New York
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Soon e Cobyl skill Yeah, okay, whatever that is. I
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: think State University of New York cbe Cobyl skills. They
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: do Cebe radio there. They just talked to Truckers. So Leamoyne,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: I mean they're off to a decent start. They got
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: some momentum after an easy win. Basically, you could argue
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: they will be focused though for a game against Xavier,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: because it is one of the bigger games on their schedule.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: They get to play a big East team. I mean
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: that is pretty big, so it actually might be the
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: it's their biggest opponent besides Texas on their entire schedule
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: this year. I would say, because BC doesn't really get
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: any respect anymore. So that's my one hesitation with it.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: But I do lean to Xavier here, but the money
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: is somewhat coming against it, at least for now. Ticking
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: the line down from twenty three to twenty two and
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: a half on Xavier, We'll see what happens in that game.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: I'm just going kind of in order of the board here.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: I'm not really doing the best bets segment here, although
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: maybe I should just call everything the best bets segment,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: because why not. The whole show is the best bets
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: at this point. Man, the rest of my college basketball
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: players are gonna be laying big favorites here, which I
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: think we're in good spots to do. This next one,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: we're gonna lay Miami Florida minus seventeen and a half.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: Miami is not that good this year, and I know
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: they carry some name recognition because they're Miami. They have
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: a good football program right now, they we're pretty good
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: in basketball for a couple of years, although those days
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: are gone, of course, but they're facing Bethune Cookman Man
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: because of Miami, I think is somewhat down as a
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: program right now. You actually get a decent number on
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: this with seventeen and a half. I don't know what
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: ken Bom has on this sk ken Bum might have
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: been winning by slightly more in this game than that.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Actually he might not, actually, but I just don't care.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, these ken Bum numbers, especially when you get
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: into the double digits, they're a little bit off right now.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: It looks like the actual money is driving this line up.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: So this is reminiscent of yesterday when the line was
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: just flying out of control on Georgia. This line is
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: up from sixteen to eighteen and a half here already,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: So the money is agreeing with me on Miami. So
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: these numbers I'm gonna give out. You probably gotta jump
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: on these pretty quickly because I think these numbers are
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: gonna get a little bit more out of control. Every
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: point matters a little better once you get into this range.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, there are no key numbers, you know, Like,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: this isn't football, so seventeen is not a key number
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: in basketball. You just need to get the best number
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: that you can, so you know what, Miami doesn't have
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: to be pushed to limit year. But this is really
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: gonna be a fade of Bethune Cookman from Miami. It
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: doesn't really matter too much to them, I don't think.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: But I just think Bethune Cookman is just gonna fall
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: flat in this game. Miami had a game against Jacksonville
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: to open the season. Really that was just kind of
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: a momentum starter from Miami. They actually didn't cover in
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: the game. They won by seventeen as an eighteen and
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite, so really not a surprising result
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: in any way. There the Miami was actually particularly bad
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: from three point range, so they might be able to
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: improve that. They dominated on the boards, which is a
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: decent sign Jacksonville. I mean, they're not a terrible team
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: for one of those lower conference teams they're in. What conference?
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Are they in? The Atlantic Sun? I think they're one
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: of the better teams in the Atlantic Sun over the
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: last few years at the very least, you know, Jacksonville
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: gets up to play these in state bigger brothers like Miami.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Miami was very bad from three point range.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Twenty one point four percent, so a bit of an
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: outlier they might be able to improve upon, although they
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: were too good from the field, probably because they were
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: just way taller than Jacksonville, I assume, which is why
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: they dominated the boards. They were probably just getting a
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: lot of close range shots and dunks in this game
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: for them to have a field representation of fifty five
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: point one percent. So yeah, they might. I mean, I
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: wouldn't even want to say that they would take a
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: step back from that because Bethune Cookman is worse than Jacksonville,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: So I mean, I think, actually, I'm not sure about that,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: because Bethune Cookman is actually one of the least bad
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: teams in the Swack, although the Swack is terrible. Actually
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong, Jacksonville is a worst team. But still I
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: don't really see Miami being like outsized by Bethune Cookman.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: And now here's the thing. Bethune Cookman, they're coming off
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: that overtime game against Auburn. Like, they went to Auburn,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: who was one of the national title contenders last year,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: and they took Auburn to overtime. I mean, when a
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: small team does that as a huge underdog. They were
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: twenty four and a half point underdoing they almost pull
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: off an upset against one of these upper echelon teams
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: like Auburn. You want to fade that team in the
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: next game. Man, it's just as simple as that second
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: straight road game in a couple of days. Yeah, I mean,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: generally you'd say they want to get up from Miami,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: but that Auburn game was huge. I think they shot
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: their wad in that game. They had a chance to
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: win that game, fell short. I think they're in a
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: bad spot here, so I think they're gonna get blown
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: out by Miami here. That would be my opinion in
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: this one, similar to what I did yesterday with the
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Georgia game. So you will find me on some big
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: college basketball favorites in these weird early season games, usually
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: not otherwise. But yeah, in a game like this, Yeah,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: this line actually isn't even really that high. But again
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: it is because Miami is not really that good. Yes,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I know. Again, Bethune Cookman is probably one of the
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: better teams in their awful swack conference, but it's still
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: it's still a really bad conference and they're in a
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: terrible spot. And remember Auburn was transitioning to their new
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: coach Bruce pearls Son, although I think he's probably gonna
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: keep his father's system in place or whatever, so there
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: should be a little bit less turnover for that reason.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: But Auburn did lose like a bunch of their best
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: players from last year too, so I think it was
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: kind of expected they wouldn't like storm out of the gate.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: But I don't know if it was expected they did
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: that they would do that poorly against an outclassed team.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean it is what it is. And
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: now that Bethune Cookman is coming up almost pulling off
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: a monumental upset for the program, I think they're in
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: a horrible spot here. So I would lay it with
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: Miami in that one. Jeffrey, what's up man? Thanks for
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: hanging out. I know I started early today. I apologize.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm a little bit inconsistent with that. Alright, let's
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: keep going college basketball. Drake his back in action against
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Robert Morris. I mean, Drake didn't have a particularly good
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: game against Northern Arizona in their first game. Drake with
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: some turnover there because they actually lost their coach from
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: last year, Ben McCollum, who was only there for one
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: year he brought his eyes up from Division two Southwest
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Missouri State or something like that. They did really well
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: just because they had all this chemistry together. They did
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: really well last year. They won a tournament game last year,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: and they were good enough that he left and went
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: to Iowa and took a bunch of his players with
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: So this Drake team is having a reset again this year.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: Didn't look very good against Northern Arizona, didn't cover. Maybe
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: they'll come out with a little bit of a better
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: performance here against Robert Morris. Robert Morris got blown out
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: by that Iowa team. Interestingly, they faced Ben McCollums. Current
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: team is new team and now they have to face
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: his old team. Very very strange. So the interesting thing
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: about that though, that Robert Morris is now going to
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: face a similar style because McCollum likes to kind of
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: slow the pace down. Although it doesn't look like his
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: team did that in that Iowa game because they scored
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: over hunderd points. That looks like the old Iowa with
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Fran McCaffrey, who they were just run the floor, just
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: score a shit ton. So I don't know what that was.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: I'm expecting Iowa to be a much lower based team
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: this year though, because Robert Morris did play against that
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: style of team and I think Drake is still that
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: style of team. Maybe they at least have some experience
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: at doing that, and they're at least staying in the
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: state of Iowa because Drake is also in Iowa. But
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Man, Drake, I could see them potentially
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: bouncing back to The line has moved down a little
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: bit from nine and a half to nine on this one.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for this game. Obviously,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: the money seems to be kind of coming in on
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Robert Morris plus the points for now. It's one of
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: those games. Yeah, we'll just see what happens. I don't
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on it. North Florida at Florida.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I was kind of considering jumping in on this one, Man,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: I would lean to taking the points with North Florida
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: and this one. I don't really know how good North
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Florida is this year. They've been okay in that ASUN
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: conference recently. But actually Ken Bomb has some really bad
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: so far this year at three hundred and forty third
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: in the country, so maybe they're way down this year.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: But the spot is not good for Florida. I mean Florida.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: They came out, they had a big game in their
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: first game, huge like Las Vegas Showcase game they lost
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: to Arizona, really really tough game for them. Now they
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: have to face North Florida, who is a little brother
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: in the state of Florida. And you know, North Florida
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: will at least try to get up for this game
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: emotionally or whatever, even though they're gonna be outmatched, They're
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: going to try to win this game. But after this,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Florida does have their bigger like in state rivals against
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Florida State and Miami, so I think they might look
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: past North Florida here. It does look like a sandwich
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: spot here, so I do lean to North Florida on
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: this one. North Florida, though they haven't even played yet,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: so coming in really really cold might be a bad
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: thing for North Florida. That's one of my hesitations I
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: have that, and plus I think they might just be
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: totally outmatched in this one. So I sometimes I do
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: worry about playing just a really really bad team against
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: a team that could almost like name the score against them.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: Although when you're playing on the team that could name
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the score, which I am doing in some of these.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you got to worry about them and just taking
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: their foot off the gas, which at least we didn't
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: have to worry about that last night because Georgia was
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: just dominating the game so hard. But yeah, North Florida,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: they're gonna have to come out of the gate and
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: play Florida and Tennessee each on the road. That that
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: is a pretty difficult opening to their schedule. They're they're
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: gonna be owing too. So yeah, I don't like the
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: spot for Florida though, So if I played this game,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with North Florida. Florida is
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: all the way up from a thirty six point favorite
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: to a now a forty two and a half point favorite.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: The money seems to just be coming in on Florida
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: and jacking that line up and up and up. I mean,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: it was like thirty eight to thirty nine when I
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: looked like a half hour ago. It's just insane. That
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: line is getting crazy. So if you do lean to
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: North Florida like I do, you're at least getting more
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: points on the line, and that one at the very least,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: so you know, do with that information what you will.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: I guess, yeah. I mean. The other thing I do
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: like to look at, by the way, just to throw
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: it out there, is I do look at the toe.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: So in some of these games, you tend to not
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: necessarily want to lay like a ton of points with
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: low totals, although I am about to do it in
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: one of these games. That Miami game doesn't have a
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: really low total. One of the next games I'm going
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: to be on is a very low total. But I
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: think it's basically because the opponent is just horrific offensively.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Hold on a second, which I'm gonna talk about right now. Actually, yeah, man,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: college basketball, pick which one? I had two of them
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: three and zero in NBA? Hell yeah, Nets Denver and
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: you had under under in which game? But to Denver cover?
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe they did? Yeah, I guess they did. I don't know.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: I don't remember, dude. I felt like I got every
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: single thing right yesterday. It was crazy. I told you
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: the Nets would win out right then I also told
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: you the Knicks would win, and I just I forgot
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: to point out that it was also a reverse injured
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: player spot on the side of Minnesota with a coming
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: back in that game. Anthony Edwards. I apologize for swigging
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: water here, which I'm sure sounds very sexy, but yeah,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: that's good man. Hell yeah, you got these wins. Yeah,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: I mean good to the totals as well. I don't
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: really do the totals, so I'm doing really well with
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: the sides here. But yeah, hopefully you played both college
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: games yesterday because there were both wins that were not
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: that difficult. And hopefully we continue because I know last year,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: like basically, once it got to March, my college basketball
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: completely fell apart. But usually it's not that way. I've
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: had some insane runs in college basketball, like the two
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: years prior I think like early in twenty twenty three.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: I guess it was the twenty twenty two twenty twenty
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: three season. Early in twenty twenty three, I had an
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: insane college basketball runner. It was like I wasn't getting
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: anything wrong. So I don't know, somewhere in like January February,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: all right, next play, Wait a minute, do I have
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: these out of I think I have them out of
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: a order in my banners here, I do. We're gonna
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: lay the points with Auburn. We're gonna go to that
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: other side of the game I was signing about with
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Bethune Cookman. I see it out there at twenty five
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: and a half twenty six and a half right now.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's a huge difference between those two.
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: I see it twenty five and a half out there
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: at one of the mass books. I think it was
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Bally Bets. I mean, they're like they're one of the
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: newer ones and they don't know what they're doing. But hey,
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: if you get a better number, then you get a
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: better number. The money looks like it's agreeing with this Auburn.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: It's up for twenty three and after twenty seven. They
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: had a bad game in their opener man, that is
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: what it is. They almost lost to Bethune Cookman. But
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: when you have a good team like Auburn, there's still
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: a good team. I mean, I don't think they're gonna
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: completely disappear this year, even though obviously they're not gonna
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: be I don't think they're gonna be a national title
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: contender like they were the last couple of years. There's
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: still a good team though, and they're a lot better
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: than what they showed in this Bethune Cookman game where
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: they had to go into overtime to get the win
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: over Bethune Cookman. By the way, Bethune Cookman, this goes
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: towards both these plays. I'm given out here with the
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Miami one and this one. But Thune Cookman shot out
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: of their minds in this game. They shot fifty four
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: point five percent from three. That's never gonna happen again,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: especially with a bad team like that, or not a
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: very good team at the very least. But yeah, but
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Thune Cookman, I mean, they might dominate the swack, but whatever,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: that's still the swack. Auburn only shot twenty six point
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: one percent from three. You gotta think that's gonna improve.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: They did still win the rebound battle, uh, and they
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: won the turnover battle. But yeah, the shooting three point
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: shooting especially was a big outlier. But Thune Cookman shooting
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: fifty percent from the field, that's also a bit of
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: an outlier. Merrimack is who Auburn is playing here, Merrimack.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: They can't shoot at all, So I think Auburn's gonna
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: have an easier time in this one. I know this
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: is the one with the lotes total. It's in the
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: one forties. It's gone up a little bit though, But
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of that has to do with
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: the fact that Merrimack can't score. And yeah, Merrimack might
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: try to slow Auburn down here, but Auburn's the way
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: better team. So if Auburn wants to play faster than Merrimack,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: they should be able to do that, and that would
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: be similar to Georgia last night, where Georgia was just
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: able to speed up the game and just make it
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: completely out of control. Auburn so far, they're sort of
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: a mid tempo team right in the middle, actually slightly
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: below average tempo. But I'm pretty sure Merrimack likes to
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: play excessively slow. What you see here there at three
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: twenty fourth in tempo right now in Ken Palm. Merrimack
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: yet slow team that can't shoot bad stuff. I mean,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: maybe they played deepfense, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: And Merrimack's actually coming off a good performance against South
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Dakota State. Merrimack was a six and a half point underdog.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: This was I believe Merrimack's or no, it wasn't a
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: home opener. This is actually at Sioux Falls, South Dakota's.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: This is actually a semi home game for South Dakota
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: State playing in their home state, and Merrimack almost was
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: able to win this game. Merrimack actually was winning the
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: game later in the game. Merrimack did shoot terribly in
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: the game, which you could, I guess argue that was
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: an outlier of the both teams shot pretty poorly. Merrimack
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: was really bad thirty two point one percent from the
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: field twenty seven point six percent for three. Usually that's
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: gonna make me want to look towards that team in
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: the next game because I'm like, well, they got to
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: shoot better than that, but even if they do, they's
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: still a bad shooting team. And they got dominated on
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: the boards here. South Dakota State dominated them. And if
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: soelth Dakota State can dominate them with size and whatever
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: and probably I guess physicality, you gotta think that Auburn
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: should be able to beat them even more in that department.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: I gotta think Auburn had a predictably slow start because
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: they're transitioning to Stephen Pearl as the new coach there,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: same system though, and they had to you know, they're
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: having to get used to having new players there, and yeah,
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: sometimes it takes a few games, so maybe you gotta
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: worry about that a little bit, like they'll probably have
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: better chemistry later on in the season. But I think
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: the fact that they got that game out of the
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: way and it was a terrible game. Stephen Pearl postgame
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: press conference is basically talking about how they need to
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: do better than that. I like when a coach is
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: saying that, because that means, you know, he's gonna be
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: drolling his players coming into this one. They're gonna show
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: up focused. This is on their home floor as well.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure their first game was as well. They
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: don't want to have another embarrassing performance like that. Merrimack again,
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Merrimack's coming up almost pulling off on an upset as well.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: They were winning in the second half of that game,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: and they're having a travel from celt Dakota in a
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: span of a couple of days, so the travel spot
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: is worse than them too. I think Auburn is going
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: to blow them out. So that's the play there, Auburn
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: minus the points, owe money on the under. I might
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: have mentioned that, yeah, just looking at the pregame screen,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I'm well, all right, so that was a
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: Winter Sets. That's good. Good to hear as well. I
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: don't really remember that one, but Charles Barkley's steakhouse cigar
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: bar in outside of Philly. Yeah, you should go to it.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Man Barkley, former seventy six er obviously, all right. Rest
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: of these games, I mean a lot of them, I
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: don't find very interesting. Texas A and M has an
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: in state game against Texas Southern, so maybe you argue
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Texas Southern is gonna at least show up for an
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: in state little brother situation. But A and M, obviously
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: the way better team, will be a huge favorite there.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: So not really something I would want to get involved in. Omaha.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: I've talked about how I think they're a bit overvalued
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: because they made that ridiculous run through the Summit to
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: get to the tournament last year, and I didn't think
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: they were the best team in the Summit last year.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: I was surprised they were able to do what they did.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: They got pretty much blown up by Saint John's I
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: think in the tournament. Omaha did lose their first game
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: this season. Now they're having to go to Abilene Christian,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: who has a decent basketball program throughout the years, So
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: I would probably be looking to fade, to continue fading Omaha.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Abiline Christian is taking the money up from three to
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: four and a half there already, so the money is
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: coming in. A lot of these lines moved quick in
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: college basketball and these games where the public is not
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: getting involved. So yeah, just I mean another little thing
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: to talk about there in that one. Yeah, I would
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: continue fading the Omaha hype that might be still there
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: off of last year. Texas A and M's CC is
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: playing an in state game against SMU, so you gotta
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: think they might show up for that game, at least emotionally.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: But SMU, obviously the better team, will be a big
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: favorite there. I'm gonna talk about my last play in
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: a second, but my last college basketball player. I do
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: have one hockey play. But the Mercy Hurst and Loyola
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Chicago game kind of interesting. Mercyhurst, I don't even know
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: where the fuck they are. They're one of the newer
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Division one teams. I almost said FBS, not FBS. Division
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: one basketball has three hundred and whatever teams. Now, Loyola
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: Chicago I would look to play on them here, although
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: I would have some hesitations with it, but they were
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: a big favorite against Cleveland State seventeen and a half
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: point favorite against Cleveland State in their first game at home,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: and they had to win on a buzzer beater at
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: the end of the game. So when you're a big
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: favorite like that and you almost lose the game, sometimes
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: it will focus you coming into the next game. So
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: you might expect more focus from I'm coming into this
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: one Mercy Hurst. They did get absolutely blown out by Northwestern,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: so that means they're staying in the Chicago area here.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: You could argue they're gonna try to play better than
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: they did in that first game, but they were just
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: outmatched by a Big ten team. I mean, not totally
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: surprising there, but I do kind of expect Loyola after
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: that game that they would show up with more focus.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: The issue I might have with it is that they
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: might be looking ahead to North Texas, which is gonna
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: be one of these I don't know, highlight games it's
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: gonna be. I don't even know it's at no Arena.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Is that Loyola Chicago's home. I don't even know. It
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: has an asterisk on it, so that usually means it's
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: like a neutral game, like showcase type of game. So
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that game is gonna be. But
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: North Texas has been a pretty decent team in their
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: conference over the last couple of years too, so it
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: is possible Loyola just still takes Mercyhurst lightly though. The
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: one other issue I have with it is that that
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: was Loyola Chicago's first home game without Sister Jane rip
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: As we we might know Sister Jean, she lived to
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: be like whatever, one hundred and eight, one hundred and
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: nine years old, whatever. She was the old nun or
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: former nun or whatever who became like the most famous
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: fan of Loyol Chicago back with their final four run,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: which was long ago, like over a decade ago, and
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: she was really old then and she lived yeah up
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: until very recently. So this is their first home game
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: without her, so I'm assuming they had a big thing
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: for her, honored her, So that was like an emotional
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: game for them. Weird that they didn't come out and
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: like play better in that case, but it was probably
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: still an emotional game for them, So I wouldn't really
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: want to play them off of that game for that reason.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: The money's actually kind of fading them here. They're down
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: from twenty one and a half to twenty one, at
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: least with the early lie movement there. Just I thought
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: that game was a little bit interesting to talk about.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Spoilster has house burned down? Well, that's really some Miami heat.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: Oo Is that going to be a distraction then for
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: the Miami Heat. I don't know. They don't play tonight,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: but that is interesting to know. I don't know what's
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: going on, what's going on with all these houses on
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: fire with Miami, Like professional sports man like Tyreek Hill,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: like one of his kids lit his house on fire
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: last year or whatever, and then he probably beat him
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: because that's what Tyreek Hill does. Tyreek Hill. You know,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not totally saddened by the fact that he's injured
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: right now and possibly his career won't return. But whatever.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: The last play that I have is similar to what
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: my other plays were. We're gonna lay the points with
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: TCU minus twenty five and a half here, they're up
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: to twenty six and a half here, similar number, I
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: mean one point less of value, you know, in a
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: dead number range. I mean, you just hope they come
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: in and blow out Saint Francis PA, who is the
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: only Saint Francis now because Saint Francis, New York disbanded
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: their They just banded their basketball program or something. I
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: don't know. His PA is in that really ugly Northeastern Conference.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: I think Merrimack is as well. So we're fanning some
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: really low conference teams here. But these are spots, right
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I think the good team will show up here. Saint Francis,
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: First of all, they're not a good team. Ken Bum
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: has them very low at one of the bottom like
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: twenty teams in the country. Just not good at all
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: on either side of the ball. He does have them
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: as kind of a mid tempo team, though, so just
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind, at least for now. And
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: so is TCU, so this won't really be a tempo clash.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: TCU is just obviously the better team though, even though
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: they're not really a great big twelve team right now.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: I still think TCU is coached by Jamie Dixon there,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: so they do have a good coach. So I trust
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: them more to bounce back in a spot like this
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: than I would, you know, maybe some teams with lesser
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: coaches there. Saint Francis, I mean, they're having a difficult
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: start to their schedule. They had to play Oklahoma, on
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: the road in the first game they got blown out.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: I mean that was not surprising. Oklahoma solid team, they're
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: in the SEC now, but now they have to play
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: a second big game in a row. Don't really think
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I would consider it to be a bounced back spot.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I think it was just a predictable blowout loss. And
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: I think this might be another one. Even though TCU
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: is not as good as Oklahoma. TCU just lost to
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: New Orleans and their opener that can't stand man, and
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: that was TCU's home opener, and this game was even
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: worse than it looked on the scoreboard. But either way,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: people are gonna look at this and just see how
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: embarrassing it was just in general for TCU to lose
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: to New Orleans. TCU was a twenty one and a
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, And again with these opening games, sometimes
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: you just see really really weird results because sometimes these
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: better teams just aren't ready, they just don't know the
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: chemistry yet. But getting that game under their belt and
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: getting punched in the mouth and getting embarrassed I think
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: does help them focus pretty fast. New Orleans shot fairly
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: well in the game forty nine point one percent from
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: the field, but really the story was TCU shot horrifically
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: thirty eight point eight percent from the field and eleven
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: point one percent from three that's a major outlier. I mean,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: that's well below with these teams average. Although it is
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: not a good thing that New Orleans outrebounded TCU, Like
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: that's not good. Uh. And TCU won the turnover battles,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: still lost the game, but I still expect to bounce
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: back off of just a horrific performance like this, and
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: New Orleans is not as bad as Saint Francis, so
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: that's something to keep in mind as well. New Orleans
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: is at two thirty seventh overall according to ken Bum
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: right now, so there are about one hundred ranking spots higher.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: So TCU gets to step down in class and they're
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: only laying a few more points than they were in
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: that other game. Which I know, once you get into
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: the bad like the bad like you know, the bottom
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: hundred teams, it doesn't you know, it starts not mattering
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: as much what the number really is. But I still
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: think this number is actually a little bit short, just
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: based on what we saw in the last game and
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: then looking at the game blow TCU was getting absolutely
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: blown out of this game, so they actually they actually
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: came back and had maybe some chances to win this
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: game late, still lost. But so that just makes it
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: more embarrassing, man, the fact that they were just getting
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: absolutely drilled by a team that's way worse than them.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: So somebody keeping my New Orleans is probably one of
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: the top like maybe four or five teams in their conference,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: though in the Southland of the Southland not very good.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: But to me it looks like a refocus like bounce
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: back spot for tc OR. They're playing at home again.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: They do not want to be embarrassed again at home
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: like that same with Auburn, except this might even be
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: crazier because TCU actually lost that game, so TCU will
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: be the play there, all right, Hockey, these are gonna
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: these are gonna start getting to be long shows man,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: because of college basketball. For the Saturday college basketball, I
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: think I have to do like Friday Night Show and
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: then do the college football Friday Night Show right after
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: it or something. It's gonna start getting crazy, man. Maybe
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: I should start actually putting money on these games again.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: In hockey, we got whatever this is about nine games
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: today Ottawa at my Boston Bruins. My first reaction to
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: this is that the Bruins are in kind of a
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: revenge spot because they lost to Ottawa ugly, not that
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: long ago, seven to two on October twenty seventh. Could
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a bounce back spot here,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: But you don't know what the Bruins are gonna do
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: with their goalie. Are they gonna play Swayman in this
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: one again? It seems like typically what they've done is
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: they've let him play one or two games and then
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: they switched to Corpa Salo. So the Bruins may play
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Corpora Salo. He is worse than Swayman, so that would
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: give me some hesitation on the Bruins just because of that.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: The Bruins, I thought they were gonna lose that game
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: to the Islanders and they wound up winning in a shootout,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: and what I thought was a bad spot because the
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: Bruins had beaten Carolina, they had this what I thought
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: was a bigger game against Ottawa up next. They do
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: have Toronto up next, which is an Original six matchup
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: that's big as well. Though they're not gonna overlook Ottawa
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: though Autawa just beat them. Ottawa has their former goalie,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: all Mark, so you know, it's a thing the Bruins.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: They've been playing better hockey right now that they've won
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: four games in a row, so I'm happy about that
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: as a Bruins fan. Really, the only angle I can
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: really see for the Bruins here though, is that it's
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: a revenge spot for Ottawa. They've had more days off
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: and they lost at Montreal on Saturday and they haven't
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: played since then, so Ottawa is the way more rested
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: team here and they're coming off kind of a bad
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: performance and they're almost certainly gonna have a oll Mark
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: and Net for this one again because he plays most
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: of their games and he's had a bunch of days
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: to rest here, so almost guaranteed that'll be the case.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: The money is actually coming in on Ottawa in this one,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent of the cash, fifty percent of tickets
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: on the Bruins, because the Bruins have been hot recently.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: There's a reason why Ottawa was favored on the road though,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: at minus one thirty on the road, where I think
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Ottawa was a bigger favorite against the Bruins when they
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: were at home as well, So I think this is
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: basically in line with that. I mean, I can look
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: and see what the line was real quick that game.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Ottawa was minus one sixty five. The money
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: actually came in on the Bruins in that one, and
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: the Bruins lost. I mean, the reason why the cash
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Ottawa is the goaltender situation and
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: the rest situation for Ottawa. The only thing I can
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: see with the Bruins is that they should be motivated
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: to get revenge here. That's the only thing I say
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: about it. So I don't want to play either side here.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: The money is saying Ottawa. I don't necessarily disagree with that.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: That probably the scheduling spot and the goaltender situation probably
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: outweighs the revenge spot. But I don't really love it
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: at all. Man. I think it'll be a big game
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: for both teams as well, where I think both teams
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: will show up. You could argue that Ottawa's could potentially
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: be in a hangover after a big game against Montrea
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: Auta with so many days off. I just don't really
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: think so. And they're not looking ahead to anything either,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: because I don't think because Philadelphia. It's just not great.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Although I don't know did Otawa lose to Philadelphia recently. No,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: they beat them two to one. I forget if that
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: was a game where I had a play on it
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: or not. Saint Louis at Buffalo Saint Louis. They're in
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: a back to back, so that's basically the worst thing
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: about their spot here is they're playing a third game
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: in four days, actually in a fourth game in six days,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: all in different cities, and they've been kind of going
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: back and forth all over the place also playing I
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: believe that's a fifth game in eight days as well,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: where they were at home. They went to Columbus back home,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: and then they went to Washington yesterday, so they're kind
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: of going zig zagging all over the place. They got
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: blown out yesterday, which I thought that that Washington would
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: win that game. Wish I gave it out as a
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: play because Saint Louis had beaten Edmonton, so it seemed
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: like kind of a classic letdown spot at the very least.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: Now they're on a back to back, although they played
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: ugly yesterday, But because they're on the back to back,
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: it does probably mean that Hoffer will be in net
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: for them instead of Bennington, and that is a step
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: down in goaltending for the Blues because they played Bennington yesterday,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: so it's almost certainly gonna be Hoffer here. So I
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: don't love it for that reason, even though I could
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: see maybe an argument they're in a bounced back spot.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: But the schedule is also really jam pack for them
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: right now. Buffalo did not play yesterday. They did lose
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: to Utah the prior game, but they actually beat Washington
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: the game before that though, so in a way, the
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: recreational handicappers might say, oh, Buffalo beat Washington, who just
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: killed Saint Louis yesterday, so obviously Buffalo should win this game.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: So there's that transitive property thing going on that the
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: public might look at, where usually you want to fade
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: that sentiment. So that would be one reason to maybe
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: look towards Saint Louis here. But I just gave some
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: reasons not to a Buffalo coming off a loss to
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Utah again on Tuesday, tough game for them. Utah has
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: been good recently. They've actually played five straight overtime games,
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: although they are the more rested teams still because they
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: only played on Saturday and Tuesday, so they've played one
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: fewer game in the mix there. In that last stretch
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: of games. So Buffalo is the more rested team, the
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: money is coming in a Buffalo I'm gonna I won't
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: disagree with it. I mean, I think that's probably the
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: way to look at this game, even though Saint Louis
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: got absolutely drilled yesterday. Part of it is also the
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: goaltending situation Buffalo up for Might just one twenty five
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: The might just want thirty two eighty three percent of
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety five percent of the cash on Buffalo. For Buffalo,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: I don't even think it really matters which goaltender is
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: in net because I don't like any of their goalies.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: So it's just how I look at it personally. It's
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: nothing really personal though. Uh yeah, so I I agree,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Buffalo in that. On that one,
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: I have some hesitations with it. Montreal and New Jersey
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: probably one of the best games, if not maybe actually
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: debatably the best game of the night. Both teams doing
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: well right now. Montreal nine to three and one to
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: start the season, and they're doing that despite Montambo not
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: really being that good so far this season. Montreal has
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: actually played three overtime games in a row. They did
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: just lose to Philadelphia on Tuesday, and that did end
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: a win stream for them, So sometimes ending a win
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: streak will hang you over a little bit. But it
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: was a lost to Philadelphia. That was a game where
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: I gave out Philadelphia. I'm pretty sure in that game.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Montreal I thought was in a bad spot after beating
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: a Lottawood despite that being a return home spot, big
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: win Overadawa, and they had this game against New Jersey
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: coming up where I thought they might have more focus
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: on it. They might have DoBeS back in net for
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: this one because Montembau played both the last two, and
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: I think DoBeS actually might be an improvement. They've won
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: his last They've won every single game that he's been
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: in net, actually all six of them. So definitely. Somebody
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: keep in mind there a couple of them in overtime though,
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: but they're four. You know, they're six and up because
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: they're all wins, but two of them are overtime wins.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: But yeah, so it might be DoBeS back in net
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: and that would be a good thing for Montreal for
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: New Jersey. New Jersey just lost ugly against Anaheim way
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: back on Sunday. New Jersey had their hot streak ended
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: and they've actually lost three or four, although all of
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: those came on the road. But they are returning over
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, which is, as I point out,
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: typically not a good spot because you go out on
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: the road. They went out into elevation to Colorado, and
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: then they went to the Pacific Coast. They played three
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: games in California. Now they're coming back home from that.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you do get distracted, though I don't think they're
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook Montreal because Montreal has been good recently. They
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: got Pittsburgh up next, who does have a good record,
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: but I don't think they carry as much weight right
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: now as Montreal does. Montreal, of course, an original six
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: team on the way back up, people are going to
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: pay attention when they get to face them. The distraction
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: may be alleviated a little bit by the fact that
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: New Jersey has had multiple days off since returning home,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: but it is still return home spot. I think the
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: spot is actually better for Montreal here, and if again,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: if DoBeS is back in net, that will help Montreal
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: as well. I'm actually tempted to play Montreal here now
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: that I am analyzing this. Sometimes this happens on the show,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: right I reanalyzed the game, and I'm like, wait a minute,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: I start seeing it, you know, a little bit more strongly,
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: although I don't know how well I do it these
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: last editions. So I think the plays that I already
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: have planned out to are the stronger ones as they
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: should be. So what do we want to do with
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: this one? I don't know. Man. The fact they have
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: multiple days off might alleviate that, but again, when you
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: return home you do tend to have some distractions coming
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: into play. New Jersey dropped for minus one sixty one
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: forty five on the money line, so initially there was
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: a move on the money line against them, But they
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: have sixty percent of the tickets eighty nine percent of
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: the cash on them, so it looks like some of
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: the cash percentages actually on them for now. Don't know
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: if it's gonna stay that way. I would lean to Montreal,
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: though I'll stay off of it, but you know, it
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: may be one of those leans where I wind up
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: being right about it. I mean, it happens every day,
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: right because you have you just form opinions on everything,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: and if you're you know, it's a side that you're
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: that you're reading things well. Though if you keep getting
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: a bunch of things right. So although I don't think
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: I could possibly repeat yesterday with literally everything was right
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: except for maybe one or two things one or two games,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: I was shocked. I was like, holy shit, everything was
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: right yesterday. That doesn't happen often. That's that's not gonna
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: happen again. I mean, there's dude, there's gonna be some
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: like backslide at some point. Although after yesterday, because I
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: keep tracking it as if I've been betting this would
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: actually be a new peak as far as since I
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: started tracking on Action Network, which I started using that
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: tool back at the start of twenty twenty two, I
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: believe this would be the most up that I've been
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: since the start. So that's a good sign. I think
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: we're gonna wind up up on this on the year
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: given all that, because we've been so hot recently, I've
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: completely gotten out of the hole. And then some like
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: we're we're doing well right now, all right, Minnesota and Carolina.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is, I guess somewhat interesting. Although Carolina
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: is definitely the better team here, Minnesota's below five hundred.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's won two games in a row against mediocre ish opponents,
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe Nashville is considered bad. I'm ontre excuse me.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: Minnesota now going out on the road to start a
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: road trip with some momentum, so it is a positive
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: spot for them. They're probably gonna show up to face
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: a good team like Carolina start the road trip off
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: on the right foot. They got some momentum here. It's
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: not a bad spot for for Minnesota to hear. At
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: the very least. Carolina is returning home from a quick
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: road trip. But they just went to Boston and the Rangers.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: But they did beat the Rangers three to not thing.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: And it looks like there's a goalie issue here because
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: they actually used could check Gov in net, which I
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: gave that out as a play that was a winner
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: for me on the show with Carolina. But I was
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: expecting Anderson to be a net in that one. And
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know is Anderson hurt, because that is definitely
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind. It doesn't look like there's
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: any news about that. I don't know. I guess they
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: just rested him in that game for whatever reason. He's
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: their best goalie, although he is old. But yeah, I
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know which goalie they're gonna have
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: a net for this one. I don't worry about the
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: return home spot when it was just a trip up
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: the East Coast for two games. I don't think that
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: really matters. They don't really have a big game up next.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: You could argue it's a little bit of a let
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: down off of beating the Rangers. Cause maybe you shut
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: out the Rangers on the road, you kind of consider
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: that to be a bigger game. They maybe have Anderson
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: back in net for this one, because he hasn't played
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: since that Saturday against the Bruins. I would still probably
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: lean to Minnesota on this one, and I think the
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: spot sets up a little bit better for them. You
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: get a decent price on them. Carolina up for just
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: one eighty to minus one eighty five could potentially be
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: in a little bit of a letdown. Eighty five percent
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, ninety seven percent of the couch on
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: Carolina right now, they're looking like a public side at
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: the very least. I don't know about the cash percentage,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: but probably slight lean to Minnesota. Dirty sock, what's up, man,
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. I went live like an hour early, man.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: I apologize. This is part of the reason was why
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: I was just up. I can't really get back to sleep.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: Once I wake up, I'm just I start caffeinating as well,
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: and then I'm like totally fucked. But just a lot
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: of stuff to analyze it. I think I overanalyzed college basketball,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: but maybe it's all good information. You uh, if the
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: Spurs pulled off a win, oh man, you should have
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: parlayed the Spurs spread. Man, they covered the spread. Damn
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: the Spurs were able to cover the spread at the
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: end of it. I think the the Spurs were winning
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of that game out right, though, Like I
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: think they probably arguably they should have won the game
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: out right. Nice hit on the parlay, though, but yeah,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: you hit one of the parlays. Hell yeah, I mean
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: dude again, I like I was right about like so
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: much yesterday on the show. I was like, it was crazy, dude.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: I was like, yeah, I'm I don't know. I felt like, no,
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: no stradamous toad stradamus yesterday. That was crazy. But I
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: still consider myself being correct on the Spurs because I
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: said they would cover the plus two and a half
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: and they lost by two. Not abby that the Lakers won,
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: though I wanted the Spurs to win that game. I
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: like Wemba and I do not like the Lakers. So
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Washington Capitals here, they just ended a four game Los
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Street with a win. But it was yesterday against Saint Louis.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: But I don't know if I'm too worried about it
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: being a back to back because they had a lot
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: of days off before that, so they're not going to
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: be a totally fatigued team. I don't think maybe you
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: could argue they look too good though, after they just
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: annihilated Saint Louis yesterday. Saint Louis was in a bit
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: of a let down off of that Edmonton win. Though.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: Now Washington going to Pittsburgh, I do think they should
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: be focused, just because Pittsburgh has start, you know, started
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: off pretty well this season, and Washington does have a
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: little bit of momentum after yesterday to carry out on
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: the road with them. Pittsburgh's returning over from a road trip,
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: and you know, I talk about that not really being
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: great where they went as far as Minnesota and Winnipeg
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the road trip. Now they're coming
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: home the ben Homes. Well, they had their last road
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: game on Monday. Now they're back home. They've had a
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: couple of days off, so maybe like an extra day
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: rest in there. But it is a return home spot,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: so I usually I tend to think that's a bit
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: of a distraction spot, So I don't love that. Really.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Will they overlook Washington though probably not, even though Washington's
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: got kind of a mediocre record right now. I mean, Washington,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: they've been good the last couple of years, so to me,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: it doesn't seem like Pittsburgh's really gonna overlook them, although
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: you do have to worry about coming back home. You
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: got stuff to do back at home and whatever, so
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: that can be a distraction. The money is coming in
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: on Washington eighty eight percent of the cash on them,
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: sixty five percent of the tickets around Pittsburgh. And the
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: really interesting thing is, you see Washington is the team
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: with the lesser record here, but they're actually favored on
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: the road. So that should kind of tell you something.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are actually telling you not to buy into
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: this Pittsburgh hot start, and they're actually telling you Washington
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: is the better team. So I'll lean to Washington in
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: that game. That's an opinion on that one. Hell yeah,
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: it's one of those good days. But the bad is
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: that you wish you just gave up plays on everything.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: I wish I was betting on it, on all of it, man,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: and instead of not betting any of it right now,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: I need to free up some money and just start
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: doing this full time professionally and start betting more on it.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it probably won't help with my anxiety
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: because even when I was betting like small or ish amounts,
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: you know, like whatever, like I would do three hundred
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: per game. Basically, even then, it was like pretty nerve
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: wracking and I couldn't watch the games and shit. So
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Philadelphia and Nashville is gonna be my play, unfortunately,
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: because I thought I had written this team off. But
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: I see a spot and I'm like, I have to
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: do it. I think Anaheim at Dallas. Anaim is off
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: to a really hot start, man. I will say that
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: eight three and one, they're looking good right now. They've
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: won four games in a row against good teams Florida
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: on the shootout Detroit. All these games at home, though
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: except for the last one against Florida on the road.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: The first one against Florida was on the road. I
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: mean then at home, yeah, they beat Detroit, New Jersey,
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: and then they beat Florida again seven to three, so
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: that the last three they actually won every game by
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: re plus goals. Too. This Anaheim team is starting to
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: look really good, but I mean, they can't possibly be
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: as good as this man. I just can't see it.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: And you gotta think they're probably gonna go back to
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: Morazek and Net year. He's only played two games this year,
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: and although they won both games, they gave up five
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: and six goals in those two games. So if it
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: is Morazek and Net, I don't think that's great for Anaheim.
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: H Dostile Dostal Docile has been a net for most
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: of their games all season. You could argue they're in
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot here after so many big wins in
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: a row. But I don't really think they're gonna they're
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook Dallas either. But at some point, I mean,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: this Anaem team, they're just playing so many big games
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: in a row. It's like at some point it seems
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: like the wheels have to come off here. Maybe it
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: happens here, but they are taking momentum out on the
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: road with them. Although I believe Anaheim has not been
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: as good on the road as they have been at home,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: so something to consider. Actually, they have been pretty good,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: my mistake for to and one at home. Dallas is
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: also four to two excuse four too and one on
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: the row. Dallas is four to and one at home though,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: and Dallas has an overall good record as well. Dallas
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: coming off a big win though over Edmonton, so it
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: could maybe be a spot where Anaheim can actually catch
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: another win year. People are gonna see the Anaheim beat
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: Florida twice recently though, and Dallas lost to them, so
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: that might actually put some of the public on the
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: Anaheim side here, and seeing that this line is actually
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: big with Dallas being a big favorite, which is the
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: oddsmaker's telling you that they think Dallas is the significantly
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: better team, and I don't disagree with that. So the
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: public might come in and think there's value on Anaheim
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: seeing that, like seeing it being a big number, getting
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: like some potential value maybe on the team with the
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: better record, and seeing that that recent opponent, Florida, Anaheim
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: beat them twice and Dallas couldn't beat Florida. But for me,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: the biggest reason why you might want to play Anaheim.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: Here is the fact that Dallas lost to ed Every
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: excuse me, they beat Edmonton and they played three overtime
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: games in a row. But beating Edmonton is hugh because
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: that was their revenge game for getting knocked out of
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: the playoffs against Edmondon I mentioned I leaned to Dallas
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: in that game and they were able to win in
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: a shootout. So and they did it with the Smith
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: in net too, which is insane. I don't know why
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: Ottinger was not a net there, so I have to
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: I guess now see if he's hurst, I can't really tell,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: Like the news on ESPN just doesn't even really tell
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: you shit. So I don't know. I don't know why
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: it was to Smith the net there, because Ottinger is
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: their better goalie. If he's not hurt, you gotta think
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: he's back in net here. So at least that's a
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: good thing for Dallas. But again, that win over Edmonton
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: is big because it was a playoff revenge game. So
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: what do you do with this game? Man? I mean,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: the money's saying Dallas, even though they dropped for one
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: ninety one six seventy five, sixty percent of the tickets
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: and sixty nine percent of the cash on Dallas, some
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: money kind of saying Dallas here to some extent, even
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: though the money line initially dropped on them. If I
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: was gonna play this game, I would probably go over though,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: because especially if Anaheim's gonna have to go with Marazak
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: in Net again. Oh, the money just completely shifted, by
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: the way, this is what happens with these games early
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: in the day, Like you can't really read that much
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: into some of these like numbers, these percentages, because that
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: completely flipped when this just updated, and now Anaheim's got
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: all the money basically seventy eight percent of the cash
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of tickets that is in line with
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: the line move at least, so it looks like the
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: money may be actually saying Anaheim in this one. But
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: I think the better way to do this is the
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: over eighty percent of tickets ninety three percent of cash
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: in the over. I know, I'm not a huge totals guy.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: I was doing okay with with NHL overs last year.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Then when both teams look like they're kind of in
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: bad spots, especially if Anaheim's using Marazek, who's been really
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: bad in NET, Dallas I mean, Autener could come into
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: this game a little bit colder. They're gonna lose him
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: in this game, even though he will be rested. I
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: could definitely see goals being scored in this one. The
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: total's gone up a little bit with more juice on
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: the six so over maybe worth a looking that one.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: Tampa at Vegas big game as well. A couple of
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: these these last games are actually pretty decent games. Tampa,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: they could be in kind of a hangover spotty because
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: they had a five game win streak. Win streak snapped
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: in Colorado, difficult opponent, and they had Vasilevski and net
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: for that one. Tampa did their better goalie and they
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: lost the game by one goal, ending a five game
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: win streak that could definitely carry over and linger into
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: the next game. Man, So I do worry about that.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: And they actually beat Vegas back on Sunday, October twenty six,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: so it's gonna be maybe a little bit of a
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: quick revenge spot for Vegas or spot where Vegas will be,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: you know, we'll refocus here from Vegas. They're a bit
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: more rested because they did play on Tuesday and they
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: beat Detroit. That was a big win. But prior to that,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: they had a bunch of days off. They had been
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: off since Friday prior to that, so they're a more
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: rested team right now. And Tampa Bay is, you know,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: having a They're in the middle of this road trip,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: which is also not good going, you know, traveling within
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: elevation here. Now having to go to Vegas, I think
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: is what they did. Let me see, is that? Am
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: I right? Yeah? So they had the back to back
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: elevation games with one day off in between them, and
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: now they have to go to Vegas. Not an easy
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: spot at all for Tampa. I think Vegas shows up
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: for this one. I don't think it'll be totally a
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: letdown after beating Detroit. This sets up a lot better
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: for Vegas in my opinion. But again, the money seems
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: to be disagreeing with it. Seventy one percent of tickets,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: only fifty six percent of the cash on on Vegas
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: here line up from minus one twenty five to has
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: won twenty nine. But I don't agree with that cash
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: differential on that on cash discrepancy on that one, I
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: would play Vegas if I was gonna play that one.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: I just hesitate a little bit, maybe because they're coming
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: off that Detroit win, but uh, we'll see. And I
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: don't know what happened to aid In hill Man because
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: they've been alternating between Schmid and Linn bloom in net
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: so Hill might be hurt. Although again ESPN like you
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: gotta look at like rodal World or something to rot
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: a wire, because oh, there it is. It does say
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: that Hill has an injuries, I mean obviously because he's
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: been their best, their better goalie for a while. So
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: Hill is out. So that's one kind of issue with
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: Vegas as they are going to be without their They're
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: they're already without their best goalie though they've been without
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: him for a while now. And then the last game
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: on the board is off Florida or the last game
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: on the schedule, at least it is the last game
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: on the board as well. Florida is at La Florida
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: just got blown out by Anaheim seven to three, so
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: it could be a little bit of a bounce back spot.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: They were coming off beating Dallas, so they weren't able
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: to get revenge against Anaheim, but beating Dallas always big
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: coming off a bad loss like that, maybe they'll bounce back.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: They did actually have Bebrovski in net for that one.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: He is the better goalie, but he wasn't in that one.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: But that Anaheim team has been putting up a lot
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: of offense man Florida. Now they have a day off,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: they travel just up the road basically to LA. For
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: this one. LA they just be Winnipeg and a shutout
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: at home, So you could argue that LA is in
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown spot. Maybe after that.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: That's a big win Winnipeg in their conference, in the
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: Western Conference, and they shut them out. And Winnipeg was
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: I believe the President's Trophy winner last year too, had
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: the best record in the regular season, so that was
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: a big win for LA. But I just they're not
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: really gonna overlook Florida. I don't think as Florida's the
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: returning champs. That Winnipeg game was revenge, by the way
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: for a loss earlier in the season for LA against
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg as well. So yeah, some interesting angles here. LA
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: moved up for minus one to five to minus one
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: sixteen on the money line, money kind of coming back
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: in on the Florida side. Those seventy percent of tickets,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash coming in on Florida,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: and I don't disagree with that. I would probably lean
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: to Florida to bounce back from that hideous loss to Anaheim,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: So that's the way that I would lean. We're already
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: considered to be in the best bets segment, but this
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: is the last bet that I'm actually gonna have because
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: all we have left is one NBA game, two college
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: football games, in an NFL game, and I don't like
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: any of them. But I shouldn't be doing this, man,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: because this team has burned me more often than most,
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: although I do remember they beat the Bruins and I
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: gotta win on that one. At one point last year,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with the Nashville sex offenders here again,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: the Nashville Predators, terrible team name. This is definitely a
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: fate of the public, man. The public likes the Flyers,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: and the Flyers are an underdog here, and you got
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: to kind of ask why, like why is that the
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: case with? Though I know I was asking that all
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: last year, like why is Nashville favored? And Nashville kept
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: losing over and over again. So Nashville was just a
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: team that I could not get a grasp on, like
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers just seem to have the mispriced all year
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: last year. Maybe that's not the case this year, but
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: this is a spot where I think you want to
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: fade Philadelphia. The public is all over Philly, eighty five
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only sixty three percent of the cash
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: on them, So I don't think the market read on
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: this one is going to change. It looks like Philadelphia
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: is gonna remain public with less of the money come
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: in on them. I like the spot to fade them
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: here in Nashville. I mean again, it looks odd that
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: Nashville is a favorite here because they're below five hundred.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is above five hundred. But at least Nashville not
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: as bad at home, really four to three to two
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: and on. They play a lot of close games at
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: the very least, although that's better if you're playing them
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: as an underdog. If they're keeping all those games close,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: this one you need them to win as a money
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: line favorite. Philadelphia's only won once on the road though
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: all seasons, so Philadelphia has it exactly been great on
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: the road. They actually haven't played that many road games
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: this year, so they're not really that battle test at Philadelphia.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: I think they're a little bit overrated right now. Part
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: of the reason why is because they played so many
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: home games. They just won at Montreal on Tuesday, and
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: that was their first road game since October twenty third,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: and it was only their third road, fourth road game of
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: the season, so yeah, they've actually they've played five games
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: on the road, my mistake, but still they're not really
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: they're not road tested right now. I think they're gonna
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: be in a letdown spot coming off that big win
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: over Montreal. They did have Vlidiar and net for that one,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: so they might switch off of Vladaar on this one,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: although he has been Maybe they will use him because
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: he has had stretches where he's played a couple of
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: games in a row, so I don't know, or they
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: might rest him because that Montreal game was huge. They
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: beat Montreal on a shootout. I gave up Philadelphia as
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: a play in that game, and they actually blew a
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: three to nothing lead and wound up still winning that game.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: That game was a bad spot for Montreal, so I
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: think you can kind of explain why Philly won that game.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: Montreal had gotten that big win over Ottawa and they
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: had New Jersey to look ahead to US, so I
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: think they overlooked Philadelphia, so maybe that win isn't as
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: good as it looked for Philadelphia. Now they gotta go
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: down to Nashville. Then they're gonna return home and play Ottawa,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: which I think is gonna be a bigger game, and
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit of revenge because they just lost
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: at Ottawa in a game where I think I gave
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: out I think I gave out Philly in that game.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: It took a loss on that one. Maybe I didn't,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: but I forget. But it is gonna be a revenge
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: game for Philly against Ottawa that next time, and they
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: get Edmonton after that, so they might be looking ahead
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: to those games. And they also might overlook Nashville because
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: this is actually a revenge game for Nashville because Philadelphia
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: just beat Nashville back on October thirtieth four to one
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: at home, so they might just not take Nashville seriously.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: The line was about where I think it should have been.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: Philly was minus one fifty five at home in that one,
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: which does basically line up somewhat with Nashville being minus
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: one twenty here, and maybe it should be closer about
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: minus one ten. I think you give the home team
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty, but because the books have to basically
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: juice everything the extra ten cents, I think basically minus
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: one thirty would be the home favorite there. So the
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: odds in this game are telling you that Philly is
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: still the slightly better team, So I think that's about
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: in line with that. In this game, Philly did have
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: an empty net goal in the game. Nashville actually, I
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: don't want to say they dominated the game, but they
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: outshot Philly thirty three to eighteen in this game. Hits
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: were even in Nashville out fail he saw Philly in
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: the game, So this final score was not what it
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: looked like. And yes, you could argue Nashville was throwing
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: up some desperation shots because they were losing, but they
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: were losing by one going into the third period, so
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: it wasn't like they were getting blown out by enough
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: that they would have gone into desperation mode. So I
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: actually think that game is a little bit misleading as well.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: So I think Philly might actually overlook Nashville a little bit.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: Here in Nashville, I know they've been on a bad stretch.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: They've lost five of their last six games, and their
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: only win coming against Calgary. Calgary's bad. I get it.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: They're playing a third game in four days. It's not great,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: but they did just take one trip to Minnesota and
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: now they're back home. I think they're gonna show up
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: for it because again, Philly did kind of embarrass them
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: in that game the last time. Yes, I know they
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: have Dallas up next to this national team. I don't
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: think they're really gonna overlook anybody right now. After losing
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: two games in a row. They should have Sorrows back
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: in net for this one, so they'll have their better
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: goalie rested for this one. Because a Newnan played in
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: their last game, so I think Sorrows will be back
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: in net for this one. Has the better goalie in
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: this game because Sorrow's. Even though Nashville continues to not
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: be good, Sorrow's is still a solid goalie. And I
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: don't really like any of Phillies goalies. And we'll see
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: if it's Vladar or not, but whatever, I like Nashville
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: in this one. Money seems to agree with that you
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: never bet overs. I think that's uh. I think you're
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: you're taking money off the table by never betting overs
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: because they're definitely there are definitely situations where you want
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: to play an over and hockey, I mean, so many
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: of these games go over just with empty net goals alone.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: So it's like I almost never want to play an
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: under in hockey, although I know that would be kind
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: of leaving money on the table too, But yeah, I
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: mean I think there are definitely spots where you want
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: to play overs. I mean there is, Yes, overs tend
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: to be the more public type of total, but especially
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: in a sport like hockey, where the publish is not
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: really getting involved that much and the line can only
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: be skewed so much. On a hockey over like hockey
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: totals like basically have to be between five and six
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: and a half. Like the oddsmakers can't really do anything
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: about it because that's just the name of the game.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: They can't really skew the line too heavily one way
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: or the other because it's just a game where you know,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: goals are at a premium. But yeah, I mean I
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: find spots to play overs in hockey. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: I was doing it last year, And of course I
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: play overs in baseball. I'm sure that I play more
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: unders than overs in baseball, because that's the name of it.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: Like again, public plays overs more than they play unders.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: Same reason why you want to play underdogs, because the
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: public plays favorites more than they play underdogs. But you
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: saw how many favorites I have today, So like you know,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not playing only underdogs by any stretch. Obviously,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: I'm also gonna disagree with the over in the Thursday
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: night football as well. I like the under in the
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: Thursday night football game. If you're talking about the NFL
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: game NBA, there's only one game I don't really have
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: a good read this game. It's the Clippers at the Suns.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: You look at this line and you're gonna think it's very,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: very odd because the Sons are not very good. All
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, the Suns, which looked like they should
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: be a five and a half point underdog here, all
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, they're a two and a half point
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: favorite headed towards three. And right now it looks like
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in on them eighty one percent ticket,
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: it's ninety three percent of the cash gonna be in
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: on the Suns. I don't know about that cash percentage.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: But the reason why the line moved that much, it's
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: pretty obvious. It's gotta mean that the Clippers have some
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: injuries here, and yeah, that is the case they actually have.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: They're two basically their two best players are not playing
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: in this game. James Harden is out for personal reasons
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: whatever that means, don't know, but he's not playing. And
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: Kawhi Leonard, who I actually I think I think Leonard
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: actually didn't even play in their previous game. Either he's
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: out with a knee injury or I don't know, an
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: ankle injury. I think he's old, so sometimes they'll rest
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: him anyway. But so both those guys are gonna be
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: out for this game, so that's why the line is
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: moved like that. Harden and Leonard out. Harden I believe
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: did play in their last game, so you could argue
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: that this is an injured player spot now for the Clippers,
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: although it's a personal outage for Harden here. But same
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: thing I think kind of applies. W if the team knows,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: Owah Harden is our best player, our best score or whatever.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: He's not in this game, we have to step up
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: our level of play because he's out. So you could
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: see that coming from the Clippers here, But I would
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: have some reservations about that too, because I mean that
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: is one angle here. But the Clippers are also bad
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: on the road. They're zero and two on the road.
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: Sons are actually pretty good at home so far, three
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: and one at home, So that kind of would give
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: me a little bit of pause here. Clippers played against
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City two days ago, big game, although they did
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: get blown out by nineteen. Harden did play in that game,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: I believe Leonard did not. Clippers coming off that game,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: you could argue maybe they'd be in a bounce back mode.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: It might be good to just get away from home
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: just because they took their first home or no, they
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: actually that was their second home loss. What am I saying? Yeah,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: second home loss, but good to just get out of
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: there when things aren't going well at home. Sometimes you
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: go out on the road, it like takes the distractions
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: away and sometimes you're more focused. So maybe they will
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: be here. Phoenix coming off a loss to Golden State
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, where they actually went to Golden State, they
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: lost by double digits, and now they're coming back home
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: from that. I mean, to me, the spot and the
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: value looks a little bit better for the Clippers to
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: me though, so I don't know. I think that probably
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: outweighs the road versus home records here. I would probably
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: take the points with the Clippers in this one. And
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: it looks like the Suns are gonna be a little
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: bit public in this one too, which I don't love obviously.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: But of course we know the Clippers are going to
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: be shorthanded here. But again, first game without heart, and
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll step up their game a little bit. I
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: think the spot actually sets up a little bit better
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: for them. I don't really consider it to be a
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: return home spot for the Suns because they only had
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: a one game road trip, but it was a big
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: game against Golden State, so I think it's Clippers are passed.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: And that game, for me, a rookie scored thirty for
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: the Warriors. Who was it? I don't even know, and
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: I just took it down. But hold on, not that
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: I want this game to keep going. Where are the Warriors?
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: Let's see, we're gonna be about an hour and a
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: half on this video today. Probably the Warriors last night?
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: You mean against Sacramento? This guy Richard? Wait, who is it? Oh?
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: Will Richard? Yeah? Out of Florida. I remember him. Yeah, yeah,
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: good game from him last night. I guess yeah, or
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: Will Reshared. Maybe it's how you pronounce his name. All right,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: college football, and we have two. We're stepping it up.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: No more maction for the week. The rest of the
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: MAC teams are playing on Saturday. We're stepping up in
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: class a little bit. Now we get some what are these?
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: A Sun Belt game I think in the first one,
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: and then an American game the second one. I have
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: some slight opinions on these games, but not very strong.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: First game, the Sun Belt game at seven thirty pm
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: on ESPN two is Georgia Southern and app State. Here.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: Don't think either of these teams are going anywhere. They're
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: both one and three in the conference. So if they
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: had hopes of maybe making the Sun Belt Championship Game
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: or anything like that, that's not gonna happen. So they're
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: playing out the stretch here. Well, these teams potentially have
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: left to play for His Bowl eligibility, which you have
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: to get to six wins to do that. It's gonna
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: be real difficult for Georgia Southern to do that though.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: If they don't get this win here against app State
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: at the very least, they should probably be a favorite
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: I think against Coastal Carolina and their next geame because
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: they're not good. But then beating Old Dominion and Marshall
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: is gonna be pretty difficult to do Marshall on the
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: road too, So I don't know, but they'll probably continue
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: to at least try. Both these teams I think played
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: last Saturday, or they'll check that in a minute. The
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: twenty fifth, so a little bit of extra time off
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: I think for both teams. Georgia Southern lost at Arkansas
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: State last SEMMA, but they did have a big kind
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: of rivalry win over Georgia State the week before that,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: so they were in potentially a little bit of a
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: letdown spot. Maybe they will show up for this game.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern not a very good team, though they're definitely
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: gonna be an underdog in this one. App State has
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: been a pretty good team in this conference lately, but
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: last year with the hurricane coming into their talent and
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: whatever kind of derailed them and they haven't been that
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: good this year. They haven't played since last Saturday as well,
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: and they're coming off two straight losses, so maybe that
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: extra time off will help them a little bit. They
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: actually got their starting quarterback back in that game. It
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: looks like Swan, who was their start at the beginning
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: of the game, unless I don't know if he got
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: hurt or if they switched to Cole because Swan wasn't
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: doing well. I'm not sure, but Swan played in their
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: last game against Old Dominion and they actually almost won
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: the game. That was a big performance from app State
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: man Old Dominion, one of the better teams in this conference.
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion did out gain them by close to one
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: hundred yards in the game though, so the final score
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: was closer than the statistics tell you the game actually
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: really was. Old Dominion was a twelve and app Boy favorite,
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: though an app played them to within three, although I
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: think they were losing by ten late in the game,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: and app State did score a touchdown I think with
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: like a minute and a half to go in that game,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: So they didn't like realistically have a chance to win
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: that game really because I think they would have basically
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: had to recover an onside kick. But they still played
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: them to within three, and I think Old Dominion was
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: probably in a bad spot in that game because I
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: know they had a big game against JMU recently. Yeah,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion was coming off getting smacked by JMU, and
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: they just I think probably were hung over from that.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: It was kind of a reality check game or the
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: huge game on their schedule, and they fell way short.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: So I think maybe you could explain why app State
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: came close to them in that game. Probably not as
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: good as they looked there, even with extra time off.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: I think maybe it could be a little bit of
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: a hangover spot for app State, and they do have
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: James Madison next that's a big game for them, and
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: when app State may not be going anywhere al though,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: they're gonna try to get a bowl, get into a
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: bowl this year, which I think they might have. I
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: don't remember if they made a bowl last year or not.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they played enough game. Maybe they
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: did because I know they had at least one game
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: canceled because of the hurricane, but whatever, I mean, I
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: think they do still want bowl eligibility here. But I
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: would lean towards taking the points in this one, and
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: the money seems to agree with that. I think you
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: could argue that it's a little bit of almost of
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot for app State between those two good
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: Virginia schools, Old Dominion and James Madison app States down
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: from six and a half to five year, fifty nine
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, sixty four percent of the
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: cash can be into Georgia Southern. I would agree with that.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Georgia Southern if I
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: was gonna do it, although they are not a very
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: good team, so we'll see what they can do. But
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: I just think the spot kind of sets up as
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: a fade for APP, a fade of APP State. Don't
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: want to give it out as a play if you're
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: taking the points. Maybe a little bit worrisome that the
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: total is really high, but it's gone down a little
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: bit the other total and the other game is actually higher.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: The money seems to be coming in someone on the
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: under in both games. Actually, this one down to sixty
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: one and a half on total. I don't really see
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: an angle on the total here in this one, although
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: again I'm not really a totals guy, so what do
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: I know. The second game probably the better game, although
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: it looks like at least you're gonna get some high
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: scoring games tonight, so entertainment value at the very least
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: utsa and South Florida. The total is actually at sixty eight,
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: so it's expected to be a very high scoring game.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: A lot of it is because South Florida has a
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: really prolific offense, not as much so on the defensive side,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: but I think if you like UTSA plus the points
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: in this one, they're gonna have to slow the game
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: down somehow, and they are equipped to do that because
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: they can run the football. As we saw last week
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: they pulled off that big win for US as an
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: underdog against Tulane in that primetime game. UTSA I worry
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: about them on the road though a little bit, because
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: they are better at home in the Alamodome, but they
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: do have a really really good rushing attack and against
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: South Florida, if you want to try to limit the
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: amount of possessions that South Florida is gonna have, the
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: way that you might be able to do that is
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: to try to slow the game down a little bit
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: and run the football. And UTSA definitely does that, so
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: they are able to do that well. But they're just
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: they're not as good on the road though they've lost
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: three other four losses came on the road. One was
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: to Texas A and m so you can't blame them
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: for that. But they did lose to Temple on the road.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: Temple's not horrible though, and they did get absolutely blown
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: out by North Texas on the road. And though we
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: know North Texas is a very good offense, UTSA did
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: bounce back last week for us, a good win for
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: us on the show against Tulane. That's really what would
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: worry me them. So they played last Thursday, so they
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: have exactly a week, so they're on schedule here. McCown
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: actually had his best game of the year. I believe
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: he's the son of one of the McCown's, Owen McCown.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: He's which McCown's son is he? I don't remember. There
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: was Josh McCown and then who was the other one.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: I don't even remember. He's one of their sons. And
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: I feel like Owen McCown has been on this team
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: for a long time time, so he's probably gonna be
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: graduating at some point soon. But UGSA, I mean I
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: worry a little bit about it being a little bit
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: of a letdown because that was a big win over Tulane.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: They're still gonna be fighting for Bowl eligibility here because
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: they do have a realistic shot at getting a bowl,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: of course, which I mean they've been in bowls the
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: last few years anyway, so I don't know how big
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: of a deal that is, but that is one of
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: their goals on the season. I'm assuming we get to
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: get back into a goal, get back into a bowl.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: They'll probably be pumped up because they get to play
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: another primetime game here. South Florid is probably more used
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: to playing the primetime games, as they actually have already
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: had two Friday games, one of which they hosted. One
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: was a huge road win for them against the Texas
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: and the other was of course, we all remember they
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: had a Thursday primetime game where they beat Boise State
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: in the opener. So maybe you could argue UTSA is
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: a little bit more pumped up for these primetime games
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: just because they don't get to do it as often.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: South Florid is a more highly touted team here. I
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: don't like the spot for Self Florid because South Florida
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: was on this huge role after they crushed North Texas
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: in that big game where everybody who was hyping that
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: matchup loop because North Texas is actually really good as well.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: South Florida annihilated them. South Florida didn't suffer a letdown
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: after that somehow, and they annihilated Florida Atlantic after that too.
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: But then they ran into it up against Memphis, Man,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: and they actually lost the game to Memphis last week
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: on the road. That's difficult because that was one of
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: the biggest games of the season. I think they're both
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: teams might have been ranked at that time too. I'm
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: not sure, though it looks like it says Memphis wasn't
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: ranked at the time. I think Memphis may become ranked
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: again after that. South Florida actually has a little bit
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: of extra time off because they played on the Saturday
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: that Saturday when they played them. But even so, I
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: think that might derail them. Man, when you have four
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: games in a row, four wins in a row like that,
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: and you lose a huge game to Memphis in a
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: close game, I don't actually love this for South Florida, Man,
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: because that was one of the games is gonna determine
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: potentially the conference here and next they got Navy, and
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: Navy is one of the teams that's right at the
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: top of the conference. Navy been really good, so I
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: think South Florida is in a sandwich spot here. I
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: think they might overlook utsa here. One thing I will
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: say is South Florida did play better in this Memphis
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: game than it looked on the scoreboard. South Florida did
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: lose one turnover. They did have more than one hundred
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: more yards than Memphis did, so the game was a
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: little bit misleading. Memphis won that game. Coming up that game,
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: I think Memphis is kind of in I thought they
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: were in more of a spot to maybe potentially fade them.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: Although they played Rice. I did not give that out
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: as a play either, which was last week. I think
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: after that and I think they wound up covering, so
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: it's a good thing I didn't give that out as
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: an actual play. It was a lean though. But yeah, overall,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: I think South Florida is in a sandwich spot though.
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: I mean simply, Memphis and Navy are two of the
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: teams that they're fighting with for this conference. That was
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: their first conference loss that they took two against Memphis,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: so I think this could hang them over. I would
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: take the points with you, I say, if I was
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: gonna play this game. But it looks like the cash
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: is slightly disagreeing. Fifty one percent of tickets on UTSA today,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash coming in South Florida. Don't
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: know if that's gonna shift as the day goes on.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: South Florida is a thirteen and a half point favorite
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: right now. I would wait if you like Texas San
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: Antonio because it might get to fourteen with the way
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: the cash looks right now. So obviously, if you want
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: Texas San Antonio, you want to take them with extra
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: points there if you can. Two touchdowns is a big
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: is one of the key numbers. So lean to Texas
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: San Antonio. Though for me Castler, I knew he was
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: heard he's out for the season. That is bad for
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: Utah man he's I believe he's one of their starters. Yeah,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: that's not good. That sucks. And I kind of like
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: the Jazz. I kind of want to get a Jazz jersey.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: Tony Allen, what is he up to now? Former Boston
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: Celtic and Oklahoma State cowboy Tony Allen. He was he
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: was a good defensive player, dude, back in the day.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: A couple of good defensive guards that the Celtics had
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: coming out of Oklahoma State. Tony Allen and Marcus Marcus smart.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: I think he went to Oklahoma State too, right, some
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: of the days when Oklahoma State was a little bit
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: better at basketball than they are right now, Tony Allen.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean drug charge, probably a little bit
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: of BS though, I mean depending on what I mean,
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: whatever it was, I mean, that's yeah, the Libertarian and
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: me coming out, I guess, yeah, you know, probably shouldn't
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: be an a restable offense, though people should not do drugs.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: NFL we have Raiders Broncos is the Thursday night game.
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: A man, I mean this game, it's not a very
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: enticing game. I don't have a play on this game.
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: The Raiders, I mean, they actually looked pretty decent last
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: week in a loss, though in overtime against Jacksonville, the
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: Raiders they tried to win the game right there with
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: a two point conversion. I don't mind that call. I
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: don't blame that. I don't blame Pete Carroll for that
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: at all. I mean the Raiders had gone into a
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: bye after getting annihilated embarrassed by Kansas City shut out
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: thirty one to nothing. So they came back with some
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: fire out of the bye, and they played pretty well
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: against Jacksonville again, it made sense to go for the
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: two point conversion because I mean, you're trying to win
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: the game. You're not going anywhere this year, you're an underdog.
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: You know, makes sense try to win the game. It failed,
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: but whatever. Now they do have to turn around a
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: short rest and go to Denver here, and I know
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: Thursday night games do tend to favor the home team
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: and the better team because they're better at that short
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: prep time and the home team is obviously used to
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: playing at home, although with the divisional game the home
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: team has a little bit less of that advantage because
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: of course a team like the Raiders, they do have
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: to go to Denver every single year, so they're more
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: used to it, so they should be a little bit
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: less affected by that than maybe some road team that's
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar with Denver and Denver I believe, having not played
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: the Raiders yet, Denver, you know all they know as
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: far as what to prepare for. They just know what
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: the Raiders have done so far this year. So Denver
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: might not know exactly what to prepare for just because
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: they haven't seen this Pete Carroll Geno Smith offense yet
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: in person. Not that it's been a good offense though,
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: so maybe it doesn't matter that much, but I think
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: that at least kind of negates Denver's like edge that
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: they might have otherwise with the short prep time. I
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: don't think that's as much of an edge as it
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: would be against, you know, some other opponent. But Vegas
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: did just look good in a loss, and Denver just
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: looked pretty ugly in a win. So sometimes when a
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: team looks really ugly in a win and they are
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: the better team, the public is kind of off of them,
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: and you do want to look towards that team in
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: the next game, whereas the opposite, with the Raiders looking
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: good in a loss, sometimes you don't want to play
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: on that team in the next game. But in this case, yeah,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not really so sure because the public
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: is obviously on the Broncos. I mean, the public wants
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: nothing to do with the Raiders. Seventy four percent of
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: tickets on the Broncos, sixty nine percent of the cash.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: The line looks like it had already dropped from ten
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: and a half to nine. Maybe ten and a half
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: was a look ahead, although it wouldn't really make sense
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: for the current number to actually be lower than the
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: look ahead because like, if anything changed last week, it
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: was really the Broncos one and the Raiders loss, So
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: why would the line move down for that reason? But
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: it looks like some of the money is actually taking
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: the Raiders plus the points. I don't mind it. I mean,
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: I know last year Denver was actually really good at
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: winning and covering as a favorite at home, but this
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: year they haven't been as good at home as a favorite.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: They did not cover against Tennessee. They did cover against
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati against Jake Brown and whatever. They were a big
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: favorite against the Jets that was in a neutral site game,
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: but they didn't cover. They didn't cover it home against
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: the Giants, and they did cover it home against Dallas.
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: So they're two and two against the spread at home,
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: I guess as a favorite, which I think has been
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: all their home games. And then and then if you
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: count them being a big favorite against the Jets, they're
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: two and three against the spread. In games where they've
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: been like around a big favorite, well, against Dallas they're
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: only a three point favorite, so I guess they're still
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: so that means they're even worse actually in games where
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: they're like around a touchdown favorite or I guess a
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: touchdown favorite or more. They're actually one to three against
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: the spread, with the only spread win coming against Jake
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: Brownings Cincinnati Bengals, so that's not a great sign. Recently,
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: the Broncos have just not been covering large numbers. I
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: think it's kind of the sophomore slump with bo nicks Man.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's as good as he looked last year.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: He's fine, but Denver is definitely relying on their defense.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I know they put up a bunch of
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: points against Dallas and against the Giants, but those are
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: not very good defenses. Houston was a better defense obviously. Yeah,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: I know the Raiders are not a good defense, but
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: still I don't think Denver's are very good offense. Denver
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: is having to travel back from Houston and Denver I
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: would argue they should have lost this game. I mean,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: I had Hugh Houston was one of my I didn't
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: give it out as a play, but Houston I had
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: as a lean in the game. Statistically, the game is
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: pretty close, but Houston lost CJ. Stroud in the game.
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: I think that's why they lost. Houston was winning that
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: game by eight late in the game. I think they
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: would have won the game if Stroud was still in
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: the game. They got Davis Mills in there. I mean,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: he's serviceable ish. I guess he's played. He's been a
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: backup I think for Houston before, like he's been on
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: the team for a couple of years now. But still,
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: I mean Stroud is better than he is, So a
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: little bit of a misleading game there. Denver is having
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: to turn around and return home as well in a
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: short week, so both teams are actually traveling here Denver.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: You could argue maybe it's a little bit of a
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: look ahead to Kansas City next man, because you know,
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: if they're gonna overlook anybody in this division, even though
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: it's a divisional game, I don't think they're gonna be
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: very concerned with the Raiders here right now. They're more
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: concerned with the Chargers and the Chiefs, who are close
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: behind them in the division here, So Chiefs up next
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: could be a bit of a look ahead here. So yeah,
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: I think I'll agree with taking the points with the
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: I don't want to make it a play obviously, but
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: I'll agree with that. I'll agree with the market lean
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: in that one, and then I do actually agree with
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: an under in this one. I think on these short
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: turnaround times sometimes the under is better with the divisional
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: games because the divisional teams they actually they know what
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: to prepare for more so they can better prepare something
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: against these offenses. But I mean, even though yes, I
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: said the Broncos might not be able to completely repare
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: for this Raider offense, the Raider offense is still not
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: good man and they just traded away Jacoby Myers, which,
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: by the way, that also worries me a little bit
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: about the Raiders' mindset here, Like they became sellers at
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: the trade deadline, So is that gonna affect their mental state?
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know, though, because if you're the Raiders and
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: you know you're not really going anywhere this season, I
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: think you're still gonna get up for Thursday night divisional
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: game against the Broncos, though, would be my opinion. I
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: think this will be one of the remaining games they
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: still want to actually show up and try, although the
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: first game since they traded one of their bet receivers away,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: maybe their mental state won't be great. I mean, you
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: could see why I'm not offering a play on this game.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: But Myers is gone. They traded him to where the
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: hell did he go? I don't even remember one of
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: the contenders got him, so he's gone. The Raiders did
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: get Brock Bauers backed on. He's one of the best
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: tight ends in football, so he's back. They do have
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: gent D of course at running back, but he's not
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: looking very good man, And I said that I didn't
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: think he was worthy of that high draft pick. Gentd.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: I know he was great in college, but in the
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: Mountain West he was facing a lot of weak defenses
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: and the NFL some of these these are not weak defenses.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: This is not UNLV this time. This is the Broncos.
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is one of the best defenses in
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: the NFL right now. So I think, yeah, I could
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: see the Raiders struggling offensively here, and I just don't
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: think the Broncos offense is that good. I mean, I
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: know the Raiders defense is not great, so the Broncos
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: should be able to move the ball a little. But
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: I think one of the other reasons to look towards
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: the under here and maybe to the Raiders plus the points,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: is that kind of what I was alluding to. I
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: just don't know how seriously the Broncos are gonna take
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: the Raiders here, and with the Chiefs up on deck,
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: one of the things the Broncos might do here is
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: just they might look at this game is we just
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: got to get in and get out of this game intact,
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: basically like get in win the game, you know, And
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: when you're in a mentality like that, you tend to
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: not put up as much offense. Maybe they don't want
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: to show everything they might plan on showing against Kansas
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: City either. Broncos aren't coming off a game where they
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: faced a punishing defense too, so remember that in Houston.
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: Although again that can affect their deepfense a little bit.
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: But that's another reason to maybe lean to the Raiders here.
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: But it could be in their offense might still be
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit sluggish from that game because Houston is
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: a very good deepfense. So for me, yeah, it would
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: be Raiders plus the points and under in this game
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: would be my leans in that one as mister Thursday Night. Yeah,
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: I mean I was only counting the sides as my
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: real Thursday Night opinions because I'm not really that much
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: of a totals guy. So yeah, I mean, we could
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: count the Raiders plus the points. Probably as my opinion
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: on the side here, I finally lost one of my
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: side opinions last week, dropped to eight and one because
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: the Ravens were able to cover, win and cover against
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins, and statisticately, that game is a lot
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: closer than that. Man. The Ravens were a little bit
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: sluggish with their first game with Lamar Jackson back. They
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: really didn't put up a ton of offense. But Miami
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: just couldn't put the ball in the end zone. Man.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: So that's what it was. Mike McDaniels, Mike McDaniel, whatever
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: his name is, he's gonna get fired, man. It's just
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: the way that it is. We'll talk about Miami when
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: we get to the weekend games here, and I actually
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: like Miami to cover this week and it sounds really
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: really insane, but you know me, I'm insane when it
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: comes to the end. So you kind of have a
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: little bit of a gauge on what I'm thinking in
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: the NFL this week. I'm trying to narrow it down
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 1: because I have about five or six games that I
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: like in the NFL, and I gotta narrow it down
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 1: to like usually, I'm gonna try to narrow it down
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: to somewhere around like three plays is typically what I'm
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: gonna have, So we'll see what happens there. But that's
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: gonna do it once again. My play is long show today.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: Thanks guys for hanging out. My players are gonna be
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: in college basketball Long Island plus the two and a
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: half of But that's a line that I only saw
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: in pregame. I didn't see it at any of the
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: books yet. So let me check real quick and let
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: me just see what the line looks like it is
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: now in that game if there is one, although I
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: still kind of like it, if it's basically in the
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: pick the winner, you can actually get them at plus
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: three and a half, it looks like right now, so
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: let's change it. We're gonna update it plus three and
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: a half on Long Island, so I would do that one,
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: and then we're gonna do Miami minus seventeen and a half.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: We got all these huge favorites in college basketball worked
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: out last night, and hopefully these favorites come through for blowouts.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: Feeling like a public better here, but I don't think
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: the public is heavily on these favorites here after seeing
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: what they did in their first game TCU minus the
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: twenty five and a half in Auburn minus twenty five
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: and a half, and again like there might be like
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit like the line might be a little
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: bit higher than that now because we've seen these lines
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: start going crazy like within the last hour. But I mean,
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: these numbers aren't key in college basketball, so you're not
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: losing too much value if you do that. Just make
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: sure you try to get the better number. And then, unfortunately,
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: the Nashville Predators are my hockey play today. Hopefully we
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: can get it done. Man, let's keep the winning going.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: It can't all be this good though, man. I know
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: six and one over the last two days, three and
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: oh yesterday can't really continue. But let's get it done again.
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: Learn it tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram.
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: Like subscribe to the channel here, give me good comments.
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: Let's boost this channel, keep it going. People should be
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 1: taken notice, baby, because I'm in so hot recently. Let's
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: get it done. Let's get more viewers. I'm giving this
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: shit out for free, and it's you know, it's costing
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 1: me my time. I should be putting my money on
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: this again, Like I said, like I used to. Every
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: day that goes by, I'm like shit, I'm like so
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: good right now. Man, I wish i'd put money on him.
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: What else am I gonna say? Oh? Yeah, we're on audio.
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: Give me a good review over there, Spotify, iTunes. That
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: all helps out as well, Apple whatever, give me a
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: five star review over there, and listen over there, and
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: that helps me out too. Covered in you because my
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: yuke channel on YouTube, which I know, I don't keep
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: it as up to date as I should. I should
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: be doing live request hours and stuff. My voice is
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: just destroyed right now. I'll try to get around to it.
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: We'll see. And then patreon dot com you can actually
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: request stuff of me there and I prioritize it and
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: at the one of the lower levels you get a
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: Spotify feed with all the yuke stuff that I've been
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: putting out for over the last since whenever I started
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: the Patreon a couple of months ago. So that's it
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: for now, Thanks guys. I'll be back tomorrow, and then
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: of course tomorrow night, well, we'll do a college football
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: show as usual tomorrow, and I might double it up
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: with a college basketball Saturday show because that's the season
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: that we're in now. There's almost always a big college
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: basketball staying on Saturday, so I think I almost have
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: to unless I just spend all of a Saturday morning
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: doing it, which I don't really want to because I
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: have to get my picks in order for college football
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: on Saturday. So that's gonna do it for now, though,
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get some lunch in a little bit. Gonna
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: see if Taco Bell has released the Baja Blast Pie.
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 1: Might be a Taco Bell lunch for me today. We'll see,
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: because I gotta try that thing. Man, I have no choice.
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: I gotta try it. That's gonna do it. I appreciate
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: it again, guys, Dirty Sock, Jeffrey Pinsy. I think it
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: was just you three guys this morning. Charles, if you're
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: out there, because you're always in the chat for the
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: most part. Thanks guys, I appreciate it. Thanks for hanging out.
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: Let's get some windnes tonight. Peace,