Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | MARKETS MONDAY | Chris Robinson

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AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | MARKETS MONDAY | Chris Robinson · AG Bull

0:10
SPEAKER_00: It's November the second, and dare I say it's the holiday season.
0:15
SPEAKER_00: The hoop de doop and the dickory dock, everybody.
0:19
SPEAKER_00: Soybeans took on a grinchy tone already, but corn and wheat were gingerly optimistic.
0:25
SPEAKER_00: We're talking markets and farming this Monday.
0:28
SPEAKER_00: Also, we'll talk seashells and an egg dish I would propose we rename.
0:45
SPEAKER_00: From behind the big blue bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson here on Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
0:53
SPEAKER_00: Monday, Monday, Monday, everybody.
0:56
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if it's the holiday season or not.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: I'm not a big Halloween guy, but I do love Thanksgiving.
1:01
SPEAKER_00: Oh, and we're coming right up on it.
1:03
SPEAKER_00: We're coming up.
1:04
SPEAKER_00: We're closer than we were yesterday, at least.
1:06
SPEAKER_00: And that's enough for me.
1:08
SPEAKER_00: That's enough for me to get excited.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: I'm excited to talk to our guest today.
1:12
SPEAKER_00: Do you like that segue?
1:13
SPEAKER_00: Chris Robinson, Robinson Ag Marketing, is here with us to uh hip us up on the markets here.
1:19
SPEAKER_00: I've got lots of questions, and we're also going to talk some seashell stuff.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: There's some seashell math that, as I understand, a little birdie put in my ear that Mr.
1:28
SPEAKER_00: Robinson is into it.
1:29
SPEAKER_00: And so we're going to find out what's the story there and if it's telling us anything at all.
1:34
SPEAKER_00: So super glad that you are here.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: Check out our premium site over at eggbol.com, eggbull.com, where you can check out the stuff that not everybody gets.
1:43
SPEAKER_00: It's heavens, it's so inexpensive.
1:45
SPEAKER_00: You can hardly stand not to go to eggbol.com for more details on that.
1:51
SPEAKER_00: Over the weekend, I watched the I watched the Mandalorian.
1:56
SPEAKER_00: Mandalorian and Grogu.
1:58
SPEAKER_00: I hadn't seen it yet.
1:59
SPEAKER_00: I'd seen mixed reviews.
2:01
SPEAKER_00: Some people really didn't like it.
2:03
SPEAKER_00: Some people didn't get it.
2:04
SPEAKER_00: And I know some Star Wars fans can be super hardcore about it.
2:08
SPEAKER_00: I thought it was great.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: I really did.
2:11
SPEAKER_00: Dave Fallone and John Favreau have taken the uh the Star Wars saga under their wing.
2:19
SPEAKER_00: And I'm anxious to see what comes next from them.
2:22
SPEAKER_00: I enjoyed The Mandalorian, and one of the things I like, it's something you can watch with the kids.
2:27
SPEAKER_00: I watched it with the wife, and Blaze was was there as well.
2:30
SPEAKER_00: As always, he's right here, in fact.
2:32
SPEAKER_00: But you know, nothing, nothing weird in there, nothing that would would, you know, that you got to talk with the kids about once the movie is over.
2:39
SPEAKER_00: I thought it was good.
2:40
SPEAKER_00: Just a good old-fashioned Star Wars kind of style movie.
2:43
SPEAKER_00: It was cool.
2:44
SPEAKER_00: And there was, you know, lots of cool synthesizer music in there too, which I like.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: All right, let's get to the show.
2:49
SPEAKER_00: A couple of news notes quick.
2:51
SPEAKER_00: HPA I, the bird flu, found in a dairy herd in Indiana.
2:56
SPEAKER_00: Not a lot of details on this one.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: It it is, you know, we're kind of coming out of maybe we're still in a little bit the migration season for the uh the seasonal birds there, headed down to South America or wherever those birds go, Florida, maybe.
3:10
SPEAKER_00: I know my folks go to Florida every year.
3:12
SPEAKER_00: A little early for them to migrate yet.
3:14
SPEAKER_00: But we, you know, we see some cases of the bird flu, and this time struck a dairy herd in Indiana.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: Uh huge downdraft in crude oil today.
3:24
SPEAKER_00: I wanted to get to that.
3:25
SPEAKER_00: I'm looking at my chart right now.
3:27
SPEAKER_00: I've got the December contract down almost eight bucks,$7.90.
3:31
SPEAKER_00: Here's the Jan down$7.63, February down$7.21.
3:36
SPEAKER_00: Uh, and then we're into the sixes and then the fives, and then further out we get down into the threes.
3:41
SPEAKER_00: But I don't know if there's talk of peace.
3:44
SPEAKER_00: Okay, I guess we'll see.
3:47
SPEAKER_00: We'll we'll see.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: If it's peace that's gotten into the market, I'm skeptical, and I hate to be.
3:52
SPEAKER_00: I would like to see, I'd like to see an end to all war.
3:56
SPEAKER_00: You know, wouldn't we all?
3:58
SPEAKER_00: Maybe maybe this one's the one that'll take.
4:01
SPEAKER_00: We'll see.
4:02
SPEAKER_00: Maybe Chris knows.
4:03
SPEAKER_00: Chris Robinson might know.
4:04
SPEAKER_00: We'll get to him in just a moment.
4:05
SPEAKER_00: Uh, we had some daily sales, 1.7 million metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico, split between this year and the next, and 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 26-27 marketing year.
4:19
SPEAKER_00: We also had an export inspections report.
4:22
SPEAKER_00: Corn in the weekend at October 29, nearly 40% above the prior week at 884,000 metric tons, roughly half the same week last year.
4:32
SPEAKER_00: Soybean export inspections slightly below last week, but still a solid 2.4 million metric tons, well above year ago.
4:40
SPEAKER_00: Wheat export inspections dismal at 75,000 metric tons.
4:45
SPEAKER_00: We saw China show up as the number one buyer for soybeans once again, and then for the corn and the wheat.
4:50
SPEAKER_00: In both spots, we had Mexico and Japan in the first and second spot as far as buyers go, but no sign of China in the corn or the wheats.
5:00
SPEAKER_00: USDA has announced a loan guarantee to support construction of a locally owned beef processing facility in Dimmitt, Texas.
5:07
SPEAKER_00: Jed and I talked about this briefly on Friday.
5:10
SPEAKER_00: Here's the story.
5:10
SPEAKER_00: Vice President J.D.
5:11
SPEAKER_00: Vance unveiled the investment through USDA Rural Development's Business and Industry Guaranteed Loan Program, backing a$24.6 million commercial loan for the project.
5:22
SPEAKER_00: The USDA inspected facility is expected to process about 400 head of cattle per day and create 220 jobs.
5:30
SPEAKER_00: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said the investment supports efforts to strengthen the U.S.
5:34
SPEAKER_00: cattle industry and expand processing capacity in rural America.
5:40
SPEAKER_00: The project is backed by 36 local investors.
5:44
SPEAKER_00: Let's go to the tail of the ticker where corn futures were a few cents higher to start the day session.
5:49
SPEAKER_00: Soybean futures fell around a dime in early session trade as wheat futures gained three to four.
5:55
SPEAKER_00: The cattle complex started the week with mild strength, with lean hogs narrowly mixed on either side of unchanged.
6:02
SPEAKER_00: Rounding into the lunch hour, corn was clinging to unchanged.
6:05
SPEAKER_00: Soybeans had accelerated to the downside, down around 17 cents or so.
6:10
SPEAKER_00: And winter wheat futures were mixed with Chicago up fractionally.
6:14
SPEAKER_00: Fat cattle had fallen below unchanged as feeders held on to early gains.
6:19
SPEAKER_00: And lean hogs still undecided.
6:21
SPEAKER_00: Mixed trade at lunch for the lean hogs.
6:24
SPEAKER_00: Let's get to the settlements.
6:26
SPEAKER_00: I've got December corn up one whole half of one cent at 448 and one quarter.
6:33
SPEAKER_00: I mentioned on Friday a lot of talk around the 440s for corn, and here we are up a whole half cent on the day today.
6:40
SPEAKER_00: The de settled out at 448 and a quarter.
6:43
SPEAKER_00: Was it enough?
6:44
SPEAKER_00: Is this going to be the point of a V-bottom?
6:47
SPEAKER_00: We'll see what Chris thinks.
6:49
SPEAKER_00: November soybeans down 17 and one half.
6:52
SPEAKER_00: Tough day in the beaners.
6:54
SPEAKER_00: 12.04 and three quarters.
6:57
SPEAKER_00: We are four and three quarter cents.
7:00
SPEAKER_00: Well, five cents away from an 11 handle once again in the November soybean futures.
7:05
SPEAKER_00: Looking a little further out, the May was at was 16 and a half lower.
7:09
SPEAKER_00: The Jan 17.5 lower.
7:11
SPEAKER_00: March 17.
7:14
SPEAKER_00: We'll just call it a down day in soybeans for your Monday.
7:18
SPEAKER_00: Meal was lower.
7:19
SPEAKER_00: Oil was also lower over to the winter wheats.
7:23
SPEAKER_00: Chicago winter wheat up three cents today.
7:30
SPEAKER_00: Over to the Kansas City up one and three quarter cents.
7:33
SPEAKER_00: 646 on your December KC wheat.
7:36
SPEAKER_00: Let me flip to my livestock tab where I've got January feeder cattle futures up 90 cents on the day 332.67 and a half.
7:45
SPEAKER_00: A little further out, we're a buck two and a half higher in the March.
7:48
SPEAKER_00: The April's up a buck even.
7:50
SPEAKER_00: The fat cattle were lower across the board today.
7:53
SPEAKER_00: The February 67 and one half lower, 223.52 and a half.
7:58
SPEAKER_00: And over to the lean hog futures.
7:59
SPEAKER_00: The dease was lower, but we're not going to talk about that.
8:02
SPEAKER_00: I've got them in green here.
8:03
SPEAKER_00: 12.5 cents higher in the February contract, 63.87 and one half, 15 cents higher in the April, 40 cents higher in the May on your lean hogs.
8:15
SPEAKER_00: With that, let me thank Plus 500.
8:17
SPEAKER_00: Plus 500 T4 software is what me and my squad use every single day for real-time quotes, futures, options, a host of dandy features.
8:26
SPEAKER_00: Plus 500, we trust plus 500.
8:29
SPEAKER_00: Thank you to plus 500.
8:32
SPEAKER_00: And with that, it gives me great joy to bring in Chris Robinson, Robinson Ag Marketing.
8:43
SPEAKER_00: Chris, great to have you on the program.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: It's your first time swinging through the halls of Ag Squawk here.
8:49
SPEAKER_00: How you doing, buddy?
8:50
SPEAKER_00: I'm doing really good.
8:51
SPEAKER_00: Great to be here.
8:52
SPEAKER_00: Excellent, excellent.
8:53
SPEAKER_00: We're sure glad to have you.
8:55
SPEAKER_00: Locate us geographically.
8:57
SPEAKER_00: Where roughly are you are you joining us from?
9:01
SPEAKER_03: Crystal Lake, about 50 miles north of Chicago.
9:05
SPEAKER_03: So a long, long time ago, I knew Tom from uh the floor.
9:08
SPEAKER_03: That's how long I've known Tommy.
9:09
SPEAKER_03: Quite a few.
9:10
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
9:11
SPEAKER_00: You know, I heard uh there used to be a time when they actually had people down on the floor there.
9:15
SPEAKER_00: Is that right?
9:16
SPEAKER_00: A lot of people.
9:18
SPEAKER_00: Like 10,000.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: Well, very good.
9:21
SPEAKER_00: Let me ask you this out of left field here, just right out of the gate.
9:24
SPEAKER_00: Are you a Star Wars guy?
9:27
SPEAKER_03: I'd have to, I'd have to phone a friend.
9:29
SPEAKER_03: I'd have to call my son.
9:30
SPEAKER_03: But yeah, okay.
9:32
SPEAKER_00: So you haven't seen the you haven't seen the uh the new the newest one, the Mandalorian movie at all with the little green guy, the Grogu dude?
9:39
SPEAKER_03: No, but I heard it's supposed to be good, so maybe I'll I'll watch it.
9:42
SPEAKER_00: I liked it a lot.
9:43
SPEAKER_00: I liked it a lot.
9:44
SPEAKER_00: You know, some of the hardcore Star Wars people were felt like it was kind of a kids' movie, but I think that was kind of part of the point.
9:52
SPEAKER_00: And as I recall, I I think George Lu George Lucas originally thought that Star Wars, you know, would maybe be a kids' movie.
9:57
SPEAKER_00: So I don't mind family friendly, I don't mind it at all.
10:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
10:01
SPEAKER_00: Let me ask you this.
10:02
SPEAKER_00: It now I saw I I looked at your website over there, and it it said that you do a little bit of farming.
10:08
SPEAKER_00: Are you are you a farm and farmer?
10:10
SPEAKER_00: Do you farm?
10:10
SPEAKER_00: Are you farming?
10:11
SPEAKER_03: Me personally, no.
10:12
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, okay.
10:13
SPEAKER_03: No, my my my ancestors did one long time ago.
10:17
SPEAKER_03: Okay.
10:19
SPEAKER_03: My grandfather, great-grandfather, they were farmers, but my father and uncles, they all left the farm and and did different careers.
10:29
SPEAKER_00: Okay, okay.
10:30
SPEAKER_00: I imagine you have a fair amount of contact with farmers though, don't you?
10:33
SPEAKER_03: Oh, absolutely.
10:33
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I've been working with farmers and producers since I left the floor, since now it's 2010.
10:40
SPEAKER_03: So I I started working with another firm, was it with them for 10 years, 12 years with the top third.
10:47
SPEAKER_03: And about eight years ago, I wanted my own.
10:52
SPEAKER_03: So, and I work with farmers and producers all over the country, and very fortunate to be able to do that.
10:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
10:59
SPEAKER_00: Robinsonagmarketing.com is is where I found you there.
11:04
SPEAKER_00: Let's let's jump into to the markets conversation.
11:07
SPEAKER_00: I want to talk about some corn.
11:08
SPEAKER_00: I want to talk about some soybeans.
11:10
SPEAKER_00: Let's let's kind of ease our way into it, and I'll let you kind of direct where your thoughts take you when you when you think about these things.
11:19
SPEAKER_00: But you know, I really liked the uh the daily corn sale to Mexico today.
11:24
SPEAKER_00: It was a whopper, very encouraging.
11:27
SPEAKER_00: I I mentioned earlier, and and maybe you could hear from from your location, you know, analysts, at least that had come through here have been talking about the 440s.
11:39
SPEAKER_00: I I don't know about a specific number consensus-wise that I've found there, but here we are in the 440s in the December contract.
11:47
SPEAKER_00: Does it go too far to think that a daily sale like this sticks out like a sore thumb in a market that's looking for uh for a bottom?
11:54
SPEAKER_00: You think Mexico's bottom picking here?
11:56
SPEAKER_00: Or I don't know, that's an awful lot in one question, right there, Chris.
12:00
SPEAKER_03: No, no, no.
12:00
SPEAKER_03: I mean, I look at the whole year, right?
12:02
SPEAKER_03: We believe it, record we were at 425, we said it was set at 460, and then we had that tremendous rally that we couldn't get the 550 print.
12:11
SPEAKER_03: We had 549 and three-quarters.
12:13
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and then you know, we had the disappointing China meeting, two disappointing USDA meets, and you know, a big part of the reason we had that huge rally from 460 to up to 550, a lot of spec money came in on and was really pushing us higher.
12:29
SPEAKER_03: People were all over the place talking about$7 corn, and you know, we were ready to launch.
12:34
SPEAKER_03: And then that failure, you know, and then then if you go back and look, you can see the the managed money was long 300,000 contracts.
12:42
SPEAKER_03: As of last week, I think they're long 50.
12:44
SPEAKER_03: And so they've worked their way out of that.
12:47
SPEAKER_03: And unfortunately, the reason we got the rally was partly because of all that spec money.
12:51
SPEAKER_03: Now they've winded out of that, and no, that's that's kind of the way the markets go.
12:57
SPEAKER_03: We've watched this movie a few times, and when you get those good rallies, one that especially when they're fueled by the spectators, and you get, you know, we had the story going, and it unfortunately it just didn't come through.
13:09
SPEAKER_03: Now, is the USDA gonna be proved to be all wet in January when the numbers are all in?
13:15
SPEAKER_03: Possibly, I hope so.
13:17
SPEAKER_03: But at the end of the day, the numbers are what we have to deal with, and I think that's what's really been the big driver.
13:23
SPEAKER_03: Now, you talk about what level and four the 440s is gonna hold.
13:26
SPEAKER_03: 450, I think was a huge psychological number.
13:29
SPEAKER_03: Numbers like to run the round numbers.
13:31
SPEAKER_03: Okay, people get excited about that.
13:33
SPEAKER_03: So it was a new low for the move today.
13:36
SPEAKER_03: We are very, very oversold, we're due for recovery.
13:40
SPEAKER_03: And you know, Mexico coming in.
13:42
SPEAKER_03: Why wouldn't you buy you know the lowest price we've had in corn for four months?
13:47
SPEAKER_03: So, yeah, we're it's gonna bring out the bargain hunters.
13:50
SPEAKER_03: China, I'm you know, China really never does buy a lot of corn from us.
13:54
SPEAKER_03: They bought it a couple years ago, but they've just continued to be a steady buyer of soybeans, they haven't gone bananas, and I think that's another been been a disappointment for a lot of people that were hoping that something really good would have come out of that Chinese meeting where they said, you know what, we're not gonna buy just 25 million metric tons, we're gonna buy you know twice that.
14:14
SPEAKER_03: And we didn't get that.
14:15
SPEAKER_03: So I think those are the two things we're at.
14:17
SPEAKER_03: So not surprising to see people come in four-month lows and wheat and corn.
14:22
SPEAKER_03: And I hate to, you know, if it's depressing to talk about four-month lows, right?
14:27
SPEAKER_03: But you are gonna see young users come out, and for people, if you know, if you're if you use a lot of corn, a lot of wheat, they're happy, right?
14:34
SPEAKER_03: So you're getting a chance to to take advantage of that.
14:37
SPEAKER_03: There's always a glass half full out there.
14:39
SPEAKER_03: And so my advice has been to guys, if you had anything sold or edged above, roll it all down, keep keep a very, very cheap floor under it and look for hopefully a recovery rally.
14:52
SPEAKER_03: And if you're aggressive, if you did make sales, I mean if you sold corn at five, you know, five thirty, five twenty, you want to take a shot at reowning it, you can re-own very, very cheap calls for five, six cents in case that USDA report in January is bullish.
15:08
SPEAKER_00: Right, right.
15:09
SPEAKER_00: What what are you hearing from?
15:11
SPEAKER_00: Because I'm desperate to see some yield monitors.
15:14
SPEAKER_00: I will take any of that sort of information that I can get as we all try to get our heads around what the corn crop looks like out there and the beans as well.
15:21
SPEAKER_00: We'll move on to beans in a second there.
15:23
SPEAKER_00: What do you what are you hearing around the campfire, maybe from your customers about those yields?
15:29
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I mean, some people were spotty, some people were like, you know, I've missed by by quite a few, a big chunk, but you never hear from the guys that had the good, the surprisingly good crop.
15:39
SPEAKER_03: And that's that's the I think more more telling thing.
15:41
SPEAKER_03: And I think that in general, maybe there were lower yields, and we saw that in the pro-farmer tournament were out there looking, you know, the yields look, you know, not very good.
15:51
SPEAKER_03: But that that remains to be seen.
15:53
SPEAKER_03: You know, we'll find out in January.
15:54
SPEAKER_03: Now, the beans, I think that overall, you have seen some some pictures of BB sized beans and stuff like that.
16:01
SPEAKER_03: But in general, I think the bean yields are are as good or better than a lot of people would thought, especially where they did get the rain.
16:08
SPEAKER_03: Um, everybody, you know, always publicizes the bad spots because they think, well, if I show the picture of how bad this looks, it'll help prices.
16:17
SPEAKER_03: And at the end of the day, then these markets are very, very efficient and cost of can be very, very violent and very unforgiving.
16:25
SPEAKER_03: And I'll just say this you know, nobody has more information.
16:28
SPEAKER_03: These managed funds, they're running hundreds of millions of dollars.
16:32
SPEAKER_03: They have tons of information, they have the best computer technology out there.
16:35
SPEAKER_03: They were all along a ton, you know, 300,000 contracts of corn, they were along over 200,000 contracts of beans, and they were wrong.
16:43
SPEAKER_03: So now you've seen them get out of that position.
16:46
SPEAKER_03: And now, if things change, if it comes back in the yields are bad, they will load back up faster than you can say, you know, watch out.
16:55
SPEAKER_03: Because they all they want to do is be bet the right way, right?
16:59
SPEAKER_03: And and all the stuff that they just sold, they would happily put it back on if it meant that they could make more money.
17:05
SPEAKER_03: So that's my saving grace.
17:07
SPEAKER_03: Hopefully, these guys, yeah, when they're done doing what they're doing now, if we get any reason to be bullish, they will come pouring back in on the long side like they did back when we took porn from 460 to 550.
17:18
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
17:19
SPEAKER_00: Well, on the subject of what they're doing now, I mean, exiting a long position doesn't necessarily mean that they're going short.
17:26
SPEAKER_00: Is that did that money come out?
17:28
SPEAKER_00: Excuse me, and then and then just they're holding it on the sidelines.
17:31
SPEAKER_00: Maybe they put it someplace else for a while now, or are we seeing an an increased willingness to maybe hop onto the short side of the corn market?
17:39
SPEAKER_03: We haven't gotten, I mean, we won't melt we get the commitment traders on Friday.
17:43
SPEAKER_03: Now, the new latest latest story is they're going to start doing the commitment traders twice a week, which is great.
17:48
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
17:48
SPEAKER_03: At the end of the day, it is a lagging indicator, but it's a big indicator because you cannot just snap your fingers and sell 100,000 contracts.
17:56
SPEAKER_03: So they've done it gradually, and I think thankfully they did it.
17:59
SPEAKER_03: I mean, after that second USDA report, I was worrying there we could have been limited down for two days, right?
18:04
SPEAKER_03: They did it gradually in a controlled manner, which is at least one positive.
18:09
SPEAKER_03: Now, there they have not flipped and gotten short yet.
18:12
SPEAKER_03: No, they're they're short week, they're they're and they're still long beans, they still have some long positions out, and I think some of the pressure that you saw today in the beans, beans were down like you know 18, 19 cents.
18:22
SPEAKER_03: It could be the last little bit of that as they even up their positions.
18:26
SPEAKER_03: And the other thing we have to watch too is we just finished October.
18:29
SPEAKER_03: We're into a new month, right?
18:31
SPEAKER_03: And we've got you know all the worries of what's gonna happen with the outside markets, right?
18:36
SPEAKER_03: What's gonna happen with the US dollar, what's gonna happen with crude oil.
18:39
SPEAKER_03: So I think that we'll see this Friday how much more of the long position that they have liquidated.
18:47
SPEAKER_03: But we know for a while now they've been short wheat now, especially Chicago wheat for a while.
18:52
SPEAKER_03: They just flipped and got short KC and Minneapolis.
18:55
SPEAKER_03: So at the end of the day, it's a trailing indicator, it's not perfect.
18:59
SPEAKER_03: None of these indicators are perfect.
19:01
SPEAKER_03: None of these technical stuff are completely perfect.
19:04
SPEAKER_03: There's an old joke, you know, if if technicals were perfect, there would be well, a long, long time ago, that they used to say there'd be no cab drivers in Chicago, there'd be no bartenders in Chicago because all you had to do is follow the tentacles because there's always a bit of uncertainty.
19:19
SPEAKER_03: What these technical levels do is give these guys a reason to act.
19:23
SPEAKER_03: And on that level, that's I'll I'll wrap it up with that.
19:26
SPEAKER_03: I'll say that right now you were talking about soybeans.
19:29
SPEAKER_03: Soybeans are within a hop, skip, and a jump of the 200-day moving average.
19:34
SPEAKER_03: Is that gonna hold?
19:35
SPEAKER_03: Hopefully, it does.
19:36
SPEAKER_03: Also, in soybeans, we had a tremendous$2.40 rally.
19:41
SPEAKER_03: We're on the verge of coming halfway back, and that's something I like to watch at all these markets.
19:47
SPEAKER_03: Uh corn had a halfway back move right around 470 and then accelerated lower.
19:53
SPEAKER_03: So, halfway back is something for guys to watch, and we're approaching that right here in soybeans.
19:59
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, it it feels like the deck is stacking a little bit against soybeans.
20:04
SPEAKER_00: Maybe we all got just a little complacent on the beans and we're we're hyper focused on the corn, but we got good progress in Brazil, as I understand.
20:12
SPEAKER_00: As you said, and I've heard elsewhere, yields are coming in at least acceptable.
20:17
SPEAKER_00: Now, whether whether those beans are, you know, the the size of those beans remains in question a little bit.
20:23
SPEAKER_00: Still, we we've got the specs kind of hopping out just a little bit, and then we get uh we're seven dollars lower in the in the crude oils today.
20:31
SPEAKER_00: Big big dump out in the crude oils here.
20:35
SPEAKER_00: Is is there another level?
20:37
SPEAKER_00: So you talked about we're almost a halfway back in the soybeans there.
20:41
SPEAKER_00: Yes, dude, the November is almost gonna hang an 11 handle here.
20:45
SPEAKER_00: I don't see any way of avoiding it.
20:47
SPEAKER_00: Do you?
20:47
SPEAKER_03: Well, no, I mean, and also too, you shouldn't be trading November right now because it's in delivery.
20:52
SPEAKER_03: You know, most people you should have rolled into jam by now.
20:55
SPEAKER_03: Delivery, I've been doing this for for three decades, and I've heard you know, you can get run over delivery both ways.
21:02
SPEAKER_03: So if you can stay away from November, I wouldn't obviously if your elevator is still pricing you with NOVE, that's one thing.
21:09
SPEAKER_03: But yeah, once once those November options expire, you want to be getting away from that.
21:14
SPEAKER_03: It has been first nose days.
21:15
SPEAKER_03: We haven't seen a lot of deliveries so far.
21:18
SPEAKER_03: But I would, if I'm uh with all my clients, I've just said, you know, we need to be looking at Jan or even our all the way up to March, especially if you know you're gonna be storing.
21:27
SPEAKER_03: And that's the other thing, too.
21:28
SPEAKER_03: Some guys are gonna be talking about is there carry in the market?
21:31
SPEAKER_03: I'm not gonna go into the weeds on that.
21:33
SPEAKER_03: But if you're trying to capture the carry and you're gonna store it, make you don't capture anything unless you hedge it.
21:39
SPEAKER_03: So don't forget that part.
21:41
SPEAKER_03: Don't just store it and forget to hedge it because you're not gonna capture anything.
21:45
SPEAKER_00: All right, very, very good.
21:46
SPEAKER_00: Well, let's look at the jan then, because I'll be honest, I feel like if we if we have another day tomorrow, down 17 and a half cents in the jan, even still, we'll be down below 12, even we'll be down in into the 11s there.
22:00
SPEAKER_03: So there's certainly 200 day moving averages right at 1201, which is we've got all this stuff that's another reason, and all those things do.
22:09
SPEAKER_03: Is it gives everybody a reason to get long or short?
22:12
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
22:12
SPEAKER_03: Same thing.
22:13
SPEAKER_03: When we're halfway back, which is what that would be 1205, I think is halfway back.
22:17
SPEAKER_03: Okay, you're the biggest bull and the biggest bear, they're equally wrong, right?
22:22
SPEAKER_03: So everybody has to make a new decision.
22:24
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
22:24
SPEAKER_03: That's when you get price discovery, and and it's an opportunity.
22:28
SPEAKER_03: You know, there's and at the end of the day, we'll we'll see if that can hold.
22:32
SPEAKER_03: Hopefully, it does.
22:33
SPEAKER_03: We've done so much damage here.
22:35
SPEAKER_03: And I think if we can get through, you know, tomorrow's the election, we have to deal with all that.
22:39
SPEAKER_03: It's something to watch, but absolutely positively.
22:42
SPEAKER_03: Plus, psychologically, just like 450 is a big level in Beast Corn,$12 is gonna be a big level.
22:48
SPEAKER_03: And you know, even if you've done no marketing this year, and I'll just use the January price because we're talking about January, but yeah, January the low this year was around I think 1060, 1070.
22:58
SPEAKER_03: We went to 1350, you know, it's still better than 1070, right?
23:04
SPEAKER_03: So it's like uh, you know, it's it's if you've done no marketing this year, at least you're not selling it down in the hole when you look at the the the broad range that we had all year.
23:13
SPEAKER_03: So I would say this if you feel like you need to make sales, absolutely positively look at reowning it because that's generally what happens if you make an emotional decision and sell into three-month or four-month lows, a couple months down the road.
23:27
SPEAKER_03: If things are different, and I hope they are, you don't want to be sitting back there saying, Well, but now I wish I hadn't done that.
23:33
SPEAKER_03: And the nice thing is, if you make a sale, you don't have to spend a fortune.
23:37
SPEAKER_03: You can go out and spend something reasonable.
23:40
SPEAKER_03: And the reason I like doing a call option is because you know the day you buy it, how much you can lose.
23:45
SPEAKER_03: So rather than buying futures and then exposing yourself to margin calls, if you're selling it, just go re own it.
23:52
SPEAKER_03: You set it and forget it.
23:54
SPEAKER_03: And then if something does happen positive, because we also, too, this is a super El Nino year, right?
24:00
SPEAKER_03: Is that gonna kick in?
24:01
SPEAKER_03: I mean, there's there's a lot of ventures still talking about that.
24:03
SPEAKER_03: If if we do get some sort of weather issue in South America, you know, there you go.
24:09
SPEAKER_03: So it's something to keep in mind of.
24:10
SPEAKER_03: So if you're selling it here and you're upset, keep in the back of your mind where you might want to re-own it.
24:16
SPEAKER_03: And again, you don't have to spend a lot.
24:17
SPEAKER_03: You can go and spend 15, 16, 20 cents and really get a really long-term good re ownership hedge.
24:25
SPEAKER_00: At the risk of making those who haven't done anything yet feel even further behind, are you are you looking to to the next crop at all?
24:34
SPEAKER_00: Are you doing anything on 27 crop?
24:36
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I started about three weeks ago, and that that's a whole nother story.
24:41
SPEAKER_03: I mean, there are guys that didn't want to even talk about I've got some guys that are still talking about 2023 corn that they've got, right?
24:48
SPEAKER_03: So it's all relative, but yeah, there are some opportunities out there.
24:51
SPEAKER_03: You know, these new crop corn did go below five dollars.
24:56
SPEAKER_03: New crop soybeans are still, you know, if you go out there and look at that price, it's not right in front of me right now, and I can't remember off the top of my head, but it's still in a relatively good position when you looked at where we were this time last year.
25:09
SPEAKER_03: So it's it's all relative to where we were, and even with January.
25:12
SPEAKER_03: Like I said, we're halfway there.
25:14
SPEAKER_03: So I would say protect what's left.
25:17
SPEAKER_03: You don't have to spend a whole lot.
25:19
SPEAKER_03: And now with these shorter dated options, you can you can protect for a certain amount of time.
25:25
SPEAKER_03: And then the I think the biggest thing you want to protect is gonna be through that first January report, the January 10th report, because that generally can give us some fireworks, and hopefully they're fireworks to the upside.
25:38
SPEAKER_03: So I would say, you know, look at doing very, very, very, very cheap put options to sort of you know stop the bleeding, put a tourniquet around it and help you sleep at night.
25:49
SPEAKER_03: But that's the rub with up with trading options and buying puts.
25:52
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it's hard to explain to somebody that you want to buy something and you want to lose money on it, right?
25:57
SPEAKER_03: Because that's what happens.
25:58
SPEAKER_03: Really, in a perfect world, you want to spend very little on a put and have the market rally where you get paid in the cash market.
26:06
SPEAKER_03: And I think a lot of farmers and producers they get locked up in that they want to make money in the cash side, which we all do.
26:13
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and you also want to try and make money on your hedges, which is hard to do.
26:17
SPEAKER_03: It's a seesaw, yeah.
26:19
SPEAKER_03: And I've been working with farmers, like I said, since 2010.
26:22
SPEAKER_03: So 16 years, I've had that conversation quite a few times where you know it's it's a hard pill to swallow, but literally, you know, you want to pay for a hedge and you want to have that hedge knock him into play.
26:37
SPEAKER_00: Chris, I'm gonna ask a question here now that in my long and glorious broadcasting career, I don't think I've ever asked anybody, and this may just be the stupidest thing that I've ever said out loud.
26:50
SPEAKER_00: It may wind up on the uh on the wall of shame here at Ag Squawk.
26:54
SPEAKER_00: I will fine, I'll take the hit for this.
26:56
SPEAKER_00: But do we over-idealize working these markets ahead?
27:06
SPEAKER_00: Because you mentioned you've got some people who are still dealing with 23, 24, 25 crop.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: I mean, is is there a way to I mean, there must be a way to to profit, to, to be successful and everything, and not try to, you know, forget about the future.
27:23
SPEAKER_00: Let's let's let's deal with this stuff on the back end after we already have it have it in the bucket.
27:28
SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
27:29
SPEAKER_00: Are you do you understand what I'm trying to ask here?
27:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think a big part of a marketing plan, and what I've stressed since I started doing this.
27:35
SPEAKER_03: Remember, I spent 23 years on the floor just trading in the pit.
27:38
SPEAKER_03: I wasn't a fill-in broker.
27:40
SPEAKER_03: I I spent there all day long and made markets, and and I would still be doing that if the floor was there, right?
27:46
SPEAKER_03: And that but that whole mechanism went by the wayside.
27:49
SPEAKER_03: At the end of the day, what farmers remember is we are using these options to do one thing, and you want to you're you're laying your risk off in somebody else.
28:01
SPEAKER_03: When we get the three-year highs like we had, okay, that's when you want to wake up and say, I'm gonna sell something up here.
28:07
SPEAKER_03: One year, two year, three-year highs.
28:09
SPEAKER_03: That's when I think making a cash-forward sale works.
28:12
SPEAKER_03: Now there's no there's no DeLorean, you can jump in and hit 88 miles an hour and go back two months ago.
28:19
SPEAKER_03: You can't go back and miss worrying about missed opportunities.
28:22
SPEAKER_03: So you've always got to be forward looking and saying, okay, we know what the market is giving us today.
28:28
SPEAKER_03: Let's defend that and let's try and keep the upside open.
28:32
SPEAKER_03: But yeah, I think a big part of a marketing plan, you've got to be willing to make cash sales forward when the market gives you rallies.
28:40
SPEAKER_03: And and I'm not the only one that does this, there's a dozen guys that do what I do for a living.
28:45
SPEAKER_03: We'll specifically say, hey, you want to sell five percent of your crop here, you want to sell 10% of your crop here.
28:51
SPEAKER_03: Or if you don't, this is the time you want to hedge it.
28:54
SPEAKER_03: So I think that's the type of plan most guys could be worried, working with.
28:58
SPEAKER_03: And it's really, really hard.
28:59
SPEAKER_03: Most guys, if you're watching out there, you're busy, you're farming, you're taking care of your family, you're doing a thousand other things, you're coaching football, baseball with your kids.
29:07
SPEAKER_03: You really want to come in and say, what are the markets doing?
29:10
SPEAKER_03: So I think what you have to do is find someone that you trust that can help you sort of tap them on the shoulder, not because they're gonna help you sell every kernel at the high of the year, but if you can get a better average uh during a year, I think that's what most farmers and producers, I think, should try to do to do a better job at.
29:30
SPEAKER_03: And again, how do you do that?
29:32
SPEAKER_03: Educate yourself, don't do anything that you don't understand, and find somebody that you like.
29:38
SPEAKER_03: So when the phone calls and they make a suggestion, you aren't going, oh, I don't want to hear from this guy.
29:43
SPEAKER_03: You you want to find somebody that it's like finding a dentist you like or a doctor you like or a lawyer you like.
29:49
SPEAKER_03: You want to know when the phone rings, like, I want to hear from this guy.
29:51
SPEAKER_03: And that's what I would tell everybody.
29:53
SPEAKER_03: If you don't want to work with me, there's some really good guys out there that can help you do that because it's so hard to keep track of, hey, why is why is corn at 550?
30:04
SPEAKER_03: What do we want to do here?
30:05
SPEAKER_03: You know, why is corn now at 525?
30:07
SPEAKER_03: What do we want to do here?
30:09
SPEAKER_03: I think that's what someone, any program like this, can help you do.
30:13
SPEAKER_03: So at the end of the day, it's all about doing one thing that's making the best cash sales you can make.
30:19
SPEAKER_03: And it's you know, by no means, it's not it's not an easy thing to do.
30:23
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I really like what what you just one of one of the things you just said says about you.
30:30
SPEAKER_00: Don't do anything you don't understand.
30:33
SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, don't that that requires a professional that someone can trust should be not only willing, but also able to explain.
30:44
SPEAKER_00: Because, like you said, farmers got a million things going on, you know, that and there are professionals who understand this stuff very well.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: Don't do anything you don't understand.
30:54
SPEAKER_00: How much time do you spend educating your clients and bringing them up to speed, or or do they come in pretty salty?
31:01
SPEAKER_03: Everybody's got different backgrounds, different histories.
31:05
SPEAKER_03: Some guys are interested in help, some guys just want me to execute their edges for them.
31:09
SPEAKER_03: They don't want any advice.
31:11
SPEAKER_03: I try and custom fit it to guys and be, you know, whatever they want.
31:15
SPEAKER_03: Some people won't call me every other day.
31:17
SPEAKER_03: Some people say I only want to talk to you before the USDA reports because that's all I'm worried about.
31:22
SPEAKER_03: So you have to find somebody that's a good fit for you.
31:24
SPEAKER_03: And sometimes it's not.
31:25
SPEAKER_03: I mean, you don't know until you work with somebody.
31:27
SPEAKER_03: Some people are like, hey, you're a nice person, but I don't like your program, whatever.
31:32
SPEAKER_03: You have to find someone that you want to work with.
31:34
SPEAKER_03: And most farmers, you know, everybody comes in with their baggage.
31:38
SPEAKER_03: What you need to do is find someone that's a good fit for you.
31:41
SPEAKER_03: And the single best thing I think is if you have someone that can help you at least think about making a cash out, you know, when when we have a good rally, or someone that can tap you on the shoulder and say, hey, we've just rallied a dollar.
31:53
SPEAKER_03: If you spend 10 cents, you can protect a lot of that dollar.
31:57
SPEAKER_03: Do you want to do it?
31:58
SPEAKER_03: Not someone that calls up and says, Hey, if you don't do this, the world's gonna end, that type of stuff.
32:03
SPEAKER_03: Because it it's it's an evolving trade.
32:06
SPEAKER_03: And if honestly, if anybody knew exactly where the prices were gonna go, none of us would be you just be a virtual farmer, but you don't even farm.
32:14
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, right.
32:15
SPEAKER_03: So it's at the end of the day, that's what you're trying to do.
32:17
SPEAKER_03: And from a from a farmer's standpoint, here's the one thing that I want to remind everybody you're a speculator.
32:23
SPEAKER_03: You may not like speculators, but you are a speculator and you are always bet long.
32:28
SPEAKER_03: So that's your position, and you've got to remember that day in and day out, you're always long, and you have to defend that position.
32:37
SPEAKER_03: So it's more of a defensive tree than anything else.
32:40
SPEAKER_03: And if you're an end user, right?
32:42
SPEAKER_03: If you're a feedlot and you have to worry about what happens if corn goes to eight dollars, how am I gonna feed my, you know, how's that gonna hurt me?
32:49
SPEAKER_03: You're always short, so you're always defending against those higher prices.
32:52
SPEAKER_03: So and if you keep it simple too, there's a there's a really good line out there.
32:57
SPEAKER_03: Explain it to me like I'm five years old.
32:59
SPEAKER_03: Because if you can't, if you can't write it down on a three five card, it's too complicated.
33:04
SPEAKER_03: If somebody wants you to do something that's six different things at once, I would say, you know, be wary of that position.
33:11
SPEAKER_03: You don't have to do complicated things to really get good hedges on.
33:16
SPEAKER_03: And again, the the at the end of the day, what you're trying to do is make better cash sales.
33:22
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you've clearly been around the block.
33:27
SPEAKER_00: You've you experienced the floor before it became a thing of the past.
33:34
SPEAKER_00: Let me just ask you to speculate here.
33:36
SPEAKER_00: You don't have to talk about this if you don't want to.
33:38
SPEAKER_00: But you know, I've talked to Tommy and I've talked to others who lived that life, and it was a lifestyle as near as I can understand.
33:47
SPEAKER_00: There's there's a whole fresh crop of kids coming up that just don't have that that kind of experience.
33:55
SPEAKER_00: And I feel like for guys like you, for guys like Tommy and others, there was a lot of horse sense earned down there on the trading floor.
34:05
SPEAKER_00: What does the industry look like in in 10, 15, 20 years when nobody actually has set set foot into the corn pit?
34:16
SPEAKER_03: Oh, I I glad you brought that up.
34:18
SPEAKER_03: You know, at the end of the day, it's the whole the whole system, even the way it's set up is right now, it's about price discovery, which at the end of the day, that's all that matters.
34:27
SPEAKER_03: You may think corn should be at$6, but it's at$450.
34:31
SPEAKER_03: You may think beans should be at$13, but they're at you know,$12.50.
34:36
SPEAKER_03: So what you think and doesn't matter, and the market doesn't care how much money you have, you can have$5 or$500 million.
34:43
SPEAKER_03: If you're wrong, the market will take your money away from you.
34:46
SPEAKER_03: Okay.
34:46
SPEAKER_03: And if you go into a report and you have a big position on and you don't respect the risk, I it's happened and it's happened to me where you know back in the day, where you're like, I've got this all figured out, these are my levels.
34:59
SPEAKER_03: The report comes out and the market does the absolute opposite of what it's supposed to do.
35:04
SPEAKER_03: And you're standing there going, well, wait a minute, I was right.
35:06
SPEAKER_03: And I was right.
35:07
SPEAKER_03: The market doesn't care about your opinion.
35:09
SPEAKER_03: I think that's that's something that's always going to be true, no matter if there's a pit or not.
35:15
SPEAKER_03: So the the the whole reason for these markets is two really three things.
35:20
SPEAKER_03: It's price discovery, where we know every day this is the price of a bushel of corn.
35:25
SPEAKER_03: You might not like it, but that's what the price is because every buyer and every seller on the planet is in that market.
35:31
SPEAKER_03: Secondly, it's risk transfer, right?
35:34
SPEAKER_03: It's a farmer can go out right now and price their corn three years from now if they want to.
35:40
SPEAKER_03: And no matter where the price of corn is three years from now, they will get that price.
35:44
SPEAKER_03: So that is, you know, and the and the the the speculators are the reason we have that.
35:50
SPEAKER_03: So you have the ability to go out.
35:51
SPEAKER_03: It is a futures market and do it.
35:53
SPEAKER_03: And the third thing is it also gives you the chance to hedge for specific uh dates.
36:02
SPEAKER_03: Like we know, okay, right now it's kind of scary, we're gonna have an election.
36:05
SPEAKER_03: We know that on January we're gonna have a USDA report.
36:08
SPEAKER_03: So you can get your protection for a specific risk event.
36:12
SPEAKER_03: Those three things, I think, and it doesn't matter if they're human beings doing it or if it's done on the screen, that is the the real beauty of this system.
36:21
SPEAKER_03: It's not perfect, nothing's perfect, and price volatility has gone way through the roof, certainly even in the last 10 years.
36:28
SPEAKER_03: That's because of the way computers trade.
36:31
SPEAKER_03: But you you you just have to kind of embrace that.
36:34
SPEAKER_03: So, how do you do that?
36:35
SPEAKER_03: I think you have to have a longer-term time frame, and you also have to really look at do you want to be using futures versus options when the markets are so volatile?
36:44
SPEAKER_03: And that's a whole nother conversation.
36:46
SPEAKER_03: But again, that's what someone that with some experience can help you with.
36:51
SPEAKER_03: And yeah, I think that 20 years from now or 30 years from now, when I'm long gone, maybe my kid's doing it when he gets out of college, I don't know, the markets are gonna still be doing the same thing.
37:02
SPEAKER_03: People are gonna still be looking at the corn market going, can you believe the corn's here?
37:06
SPEAKER_03: It should be there.
37:08
SPEAKER_03: That's never gonna go away.
37:09
SPEAKER_03: And as long as you have a free open market, these market, the the the border trade and the CME, uh, these these financial instruments help you lay your risk off on somebody else.
37:22
SPEAKER_03: That's the key.
37:23
SPEAKER_00: I like that risk transfer.
37:25
SPEAKER_00: That's that's a that's a good concept here.
37:28
SPEAKER_00: I want to ask you about another concept, and I don't know how deep we want to get into this here a little bit.
37:33
SPEAKER_01: But oh yeah.
37:35
SPEAKER_00: Talk in the head, talk in the head about about you and your experience and sort of where your head is at.
37:42
SPEAKER_00: The logmorythmic, log, logarithmic spirals, logmorythmic.
37:48
SPEAKER_00: That was a band in the 80s, wasn't it?
37:49
SPEAKER_00: The logmorhythmics.
37:51
SPEAKER_03: Say that six times fast.
37:52
SPEAKER_00: The logarithmic spirals, the Fibonacci numbers.
37:56
SPEAKER_00: Are you are you some kind of math magician?
37:58
SPEAKER_00: Can you help us get get our head around Fibonacci?
38:01
SPEAKER_00: And are there numbers that the Fibonacci's are talking to you about in the corn and beans right now, or not necessarily?
38:09
SPEAKER_03: Well, I you can you can learn yourself.
38:12
SPEAKER_03: I was I was introduced to this when I was about 22, 23, by a floor trader.
38:18
SPEAKER_03: And they said, look at these numbers.
38:20
SPEAKER_03: And again, I'm going to that go to go down that that uh wormhole now.
38:24
SPEAKER_02: Right.
38:25
SPEAKER_03: But yeah, I mean, mess mathematically, there are these numbers that repeat sometimes throughout nature.
38:32
SPEAKER_03: I'll just leave it at that.
38:33
SPEAKER_03: You see it on pedals, and you're showing the uh the I think that's a Nautilus thing.
38:37
SPEAKER_03: It is a Nautilus, yes.
38:39
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and the numbers are briefly, it's like one, three, five, eleven, thirteen, then twenty one, thirty-four, fifty-five.
38:49
SPEAKER_03: So, and again, that's those are those are the big ones to look at.
38:53
SPEAKER_03: The thing I look at all the time, and everybody else does too, is when you have a market that's moved a dollar or two dollars or had a very large move, very, very often, not it's not perfect because if it was perfect, I wouldn't be sitting here.
39:07
SPEAKER_03: If it was perfect, I'd own the stealers by now.
39:09
SPEAKER_03: I would have made so much money, right?
39:10
SPEAKER_03: Let's be honest.
39:11
SPEAKER_03: It's not perfect.
39:12
SPEAKER_03: But there are these retracement levels.
39:15
SPEAKER_03: So you have a dollar move.
39:17
SPEAKER_03: For some reason, there's a lot of interest when the market has a 38% pullback and a 50% pullback, and then a 62% pullback.
39:25
SPEAKER_03: And if you see it time and time again, I put it in my letter every day.
39:29
SPEAKER_03: Are they perfect?
39:30
SPEAKER_03: No, but here's what they let you do.
39:33
SPEAKER_03: You, if you're a farmer, producer, or a speculator, you need a reason to make a decision.
39:39
SPEAKER_03: So you if you know beforehand that this might be a level where a lot of buyers and a lot of sellers are going to show up, you want to have a plan for that level.
39:47
SPEAKER_03: You still have to make the right move when we get to that level, okay?
39:51
SPEAKER_03: And that's there's always the catch.
39:53
SPEAKER_03: But yeah, these numbers do attract a lot of a lot of interest, and you see it time and time again.
39:59
SPEAKER_03: And yeah, I mean, but but are they perfect?
40:02
SPEAKER_03: No, they are not perfect because there are times when you think, okay, this is the number, I'm gonna close my eyes and buy it because there should be support, and then you get run over, and you're like, Well, now I hate Fabanchi's.
40:15
SPEAKER_03: So they they give you what they do is they give you a reason to make a decision.
40:19
SPEAKER_03: You still have to make that decision, and then as always, it's what do you do if you're wrong?
40:25
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, really what it comes down to.
40:27
SPEAKER_03: If you're wrong about your decision, what's your next step?
40:30
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
40:31
SPEAKER_00: That's uh that's a really good way to put there's a lot of horse sense coming down the pipe today, Chris.
40:36
SPEAKER_01: I didn't get the white hair.
40:38
SPEAKER_01: I I started out, I had hair as dark as yours.
40:42
SPEAKER_00: So yeah, I I've earned a few gray hairs myself.
40:45
SPEAKER_00: Mine are all coming out on my chin right now.
40:47
SPEAKER_00: It's you know, I'll take it.
40:48
SPEAKER_00: I earned it, my wrinkles are on my eyes, I earned every one of them.
40:52
SPEAKER_00: Robinson Ag Marketing, Chris Robinson.
40:55
SPEAKER_00: I'm not gonna keep you too much longer here, but I do want to ask you.
40:58
SPEAKER_00: I was when I was snooping your website, it looks like there's there's some kind of podcast you got going over there.
41:03
SPEAKER_00: You mentioned uh that you're you do some writing and all that sort of stuff.
41:07
SPEAKER_00: Give us the elevator speech on Robinson Ag Marketing.
41:10
SPEAKER_03: I do a daily letter every day after the market.
41:13
SPEAKER_03: I spend two hours.
41:14
SPEAKER_03: I do the homework, so you don't have to do the homework.
41:16
SPEAKER_03: And even if you don't know anything about charts or anything like that, you will learn it by reading my letter.
41:21
SPEAKER_03: You'll learn it just by reading it.
41:23
SPEAKER_03: I like the charts because a picture is visual.
41:26
SPEAKER_03: I'm a more visual person, and rather than writing a thousand words about something, just say, look, look at this picture.
41:33
SPEAKER_03: This is the high, this is the low, this is where I think you want to watch.
41:36
SPEAKER_03: So it helps crystallize it for people visually.
41:39
SPEAKER_03: That's number one.
41:40
SPEAKER_03: So I and it's what I learned for the past three decades doing this.
41:45
SPEAKER_03: So I share that with you.
41:46
SPEAKER_03: But basically, and I and I do have specific levels so you can know beforehand, this is a level that we're watching.
41:53
SPEAKER_03: This is a level that we're watching.
41:54
SPEAKER_03: I give specific cash show recommendations throughout the year.
41:58
SPEAKER_03: And like right now, I'm one 80%.
42:00
SPEAKER_03: We talked earlier about guys that have got, you know, four years with a corn stored.
42:04
SPEAKER_03: That that's their decision.
42:05
SPEAKER_03: In my program, I try and get everybody 80%, 90% sold uh by harvest, and that's where I'm at right now.
42:13
SPEAKER_03: All my levels go out with a special email and a special text message so you get it during the day.
42:20
SPEAKER_03: You're free to follow it or not.
42:21
SPEAKER_03: I don't call your elevator and do it for you.
42:23
SPEAKER_03: I don't do that, but I do give specific targets to help me make the decision, right?
42:29
SPEAKER_03: At the end of the day, I make the suggestion, the client makes the decision.
42:33
SPEAKER_03: And then as far as the hedges go, I will make recommendations based on if you tell me what your risk is, okay?
42:41
SPEAKER_03: If you're long or you're short, whatever your risk is, I'll give you my best recommendation based on what I understand about markets and hedges.
42:48
SPEAKER_03: And then you can participate or not, that's the brokerage side of my business.
42:53
SPEAKER_03: So it's by advisory.
42:54
SPEAKER_03: If you can people become a client, I don't have an account minimum, I don't have an acres fee.
42:59
SPEAKER_03: Some of these guys won't talk to you unless you they they charge you five or six bucks an acre just to talk to you.
43:05
SPEAKER_03: And I don't have an account minimum.
43:07
SPEAKER_03: So, guys, if you're looking for you know at levels or just advice, take a look at my letter.
43:13
SPEAKER_03: It goes out again Monday through Friday.
43:15
SPEAKER_03: And then on the weekends, I spend about four hours and I do a lot of charts.
43:20
SPEAKER_03: So if you're interested in that, you want to learn more, that's really the heart and soul of my program.
43:24
SPEAKER_03: And then once a week, I do a webinar where I go through and I cover the highlights of the week and I talk to try to explain, guys, this is what we're looking at on the charts.
43:35
SPEAKER_03: So it's kind of like a seminar.
43:36
SPEAKER_03: And periodically I'll go out, like once harvest is over, and I'll go out and do a seminar with at a bank or with a seed dealer, and then we'll get 50 or 100 farmers in the room and we'll talk about marketing.
43:48
SPEAKER_03: So it's a little mini seminar, and so I I concentrate on the fundamentals.
43:54
SPEAKER_03: And again, if you're looking to learn, it's a good way to learn.
43:58
SPEAKER_03: And it's not expensive to come on board.
44:01
SPEAKER_03: It's pretty much you know, industry standard 50 bucks a month, or you can cancel it on anytime you want to.
44:06
SPEAKER_03: If you like it, keep it.
44:07
SPEAKER_03: If you don't like it, that's Okay.
44:09
SPEAKER_03: I'm a big believer, and you've got to find someone that you like and that you understand and you want to work with.
44:15
SPEAKER_03: And you know, there's 300,000 farmers out there that need help with their hedging.
44:20
SPEAKER_03: There's three million farmers, but there's probably 300,000 that really have enough business risk where they need to hedge.
44:26
SPEAKER_03: And if I can help those people, that's what I'm trying to do.
44:28
SPEAKER_03: And there's a lot of guys in my situation.
44:31
SPEAKER_03: There are a lot of other brokers out there that are doing the same work, really trying to help the farmer tackle what's a very difficult job, which is marketing.
44:42
SPEAKER_00: Chris Robinson, Robinson Ag Marketing.
44:46
SPEAKER_00: Um, buddy, I've I've taken two pages of notes and just it looks like the scrawlings of a madman here.
44:52
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna have to kind of try to connect the dots uh later on.
44:56
SPEAKER_00: But this is this has all been terrific stuff, and I hope that we can uh that you and I can talk again at some point real soon.
45:03
SPEAKER_00: Um let's let's start making our way toward the exit here just a little little bit at a time.
45:09
SPEAKER_00: You're up there near Crystal Lake.
45:10
SPEAKER_00: If you look out the window, what's the weather like today?
45:15
SPEAKER_03: Uh it's a little hazy, um like cloudy, about 58 degrees.
45:20
SPEAKER_03: No rain yet, though.
45:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's uh it's headed this way.
45:24
SPEAKER_00: They're threatening severe weather here for for Kansas City.
45:27
SPEAKER_00: But it's I think I I read uh we're 13 degrees above normal right now here in KC.
45:33
SPEAKER_00: Are you guys kind of above normal for this time of year, too?
45:35
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it has been.
45:36
SPEAKER_03: It's been kind of warm, and um, although who knows what with the way the weather shifts around here, but right now we had a lot of rain the past couple weeks.
45:44
SPEAKER_03: Um, it was actually kind of a rainy, yucky uh uh Halloween.
45:48
SPEAKER_00: A lot of kids didn't come out.
45:50
SPEAKER_00: Ah, yeah.
45:51
SPEAKER_00: Well, the National Weather Service says an intensifying storm system will move into the plains today, bringing strong winds, locally heavy rain, and scattered severe thunderstorms with the risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
46:04
SPEAKER_00: Eyes on the skies, gang.
46:05
SPEAKER_00: Uh, eastern Kansas, especially, I think, is uh is where the biggest area of concern is heavy rainfall, isolated flash flooding will continue across uh much of Florida, and moderate to major river flooding will continue today across the Southwest and Four Corners region.
46:20
SPEAKER_00: Man, they got hit hard.
46:21
SPEAKER_00: I saw some flood stuff over there.
46:23
SPEAKER_00: Um, Chris, let's let's go to some items of mild interest and then I'll cut you loose.
46:27
SPEAKER_00: This date, November 2nd.
46:30
SPEAKER_00: Uh, North and South Dakota were admitted as the 39th and 40th U.S.
46:36
SPEAKER_00: states.
46:37
SPEAKER_00: I don't know, maybe they flipped a coin to decide which one was 39th and which one was 40th, but uh I haven't spent a ton of time up in North Dakota.
46:44
SPEAKER_00: I'll admit it.
46:45
SPEAKER_00: I love South Dakota.
46:47
SPEAKER_00: Any experience in either one?
46:49
SPEAKER_00: Can you make the call?
46:49
SPEAKER_00: Which one is better?
46:50
SPEAKER_00: Are you willing to just say which is better?
46:52
SPEAKER_00: North.
46:53
SPEAKER_03: I like parcel to Pear right there on the river or Pierre.
46:56
SPEAKER_03: I like that area.
46:57
SPEAKER_03: It's pretty beautiful country.
46:59
SPEAKER_00: Very nice, very nice.
47:00
SPEAKER_00: Word to North Dakota, though.
47:02
SPEAKER_00: You know, no shade on North Dakota.
47:04
SPEAKER_00: I need to visit there.
47:05
SPEAKER_00: I need I need a reason to visit there.
47:07
SPEAKER_00: Bismarck's a nice place.
47:08
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
47:09
SPEAKER_00: Been there as well.
47:10
SPEAKER_00: Well, on November 2nd, we celebrate National Deviled Egg Day.
47:15
SPEAKER_00: Opinions are mixed on Deviled Eggs.
47:16
SPEAKER_00: This uh yearly holiday is a great excuse to get together with friends.
47:20
SPEAKER_00: Enjoy one of America's favorite party foods, Deviled Eggs, hard-boiled eggs that have had their yolks removed and replaced with uh mayonnaise, mustard kind of mix and spices.
47:30
SPEAKER_00: Basically, you're making egg salad out of the uh out of the yolks there.
47:34
SPEAKER_00: I don't like to call them deviled eggs.
47:36
SPEAKER_00: I think they should be called resurrection eggs because the devil doesn't deserve credit for something so delicious.
47:43
SPEAKER_00: They are amazing.
47:44
SPEAKER_00: They are amazing.
47:45
SPEAKER_00: I can't get enough.
47:46
SPEAKER_00: And finally, uh, just one more in 1966, the birthday of David Schwimmer, American actor.
47:52
SPEAKER_00: You might know him as uh Ross Geller from Friends.
47:56
SPEAKER_00: His birthday today in 1966.
47:59
SPEAKER_00: All right, Chris.
48:01
SPEAKER_00: Uh enough tomfoolery.
48:02
SPEAKER_00: Thank you, Chris Robinson.
48:04
SPEAKER_00: Robinsonagmarketing.com.
48:07
SPEAKER_00: Um, on an awful lot of horse sense over there at Chris's shop.
48:11
SPEAKER_00: Once again, robinsonagmarketing.com.
48:14
SPEAKER_00: Let me take this opportunity to thank TradeTheNews for the view behind the quotes.
48:19
SPEAKER_00: Look to trade the news.
48:21
SPEAKER_00: Trade the news is news you can actually use.
48:23
SPEAKER_00: Use trade the news for usable news.
48:27
SPEAKER_00: And I'd also like to direct you to AgBull.com, dig deeper with AgBull Intel, take the markets by the hoes with AgBull.
48:34
SPEAKER_00: Visit AgBull.com or call 855737 Farm for the details.
48:39
SPEAKER_00: Agbull.com.
48:41
SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching, everybody.
48:42
SPEAKER_00: Appreciate it.
48:42
SPEAKER_00: Thanks to Chris Robinson for being here.
48:44
SPEAKER_00: Jed will be back first thing in the morning to start your Tuesday.
48:48
SPEAKER_00: And then I'll run down the news for you real quick.
48:51
SPEAKER_00: We'll see you tomorrow afternoon for more Ag Squawk.