Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NBA Quick Hit | January 16, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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NBA Quick Hit | January 16, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

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All systems gone clear, we lift up. What's up? Everyone? Rio
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here going to be breaking down this small three game NBA Tuesday Slate, as
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always, hits the like and subscribe button definitely helps us out a ton.
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Not much injury news to hit on, so we can just get right into
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it. First game of the night we have Denver and the Philadelphia seventy six
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is taken on in Philadelphia. Got two thirty one over under Philly favored by
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a point. Looked like we were going to get a mass rest spot for
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the Nuggets with their entire starting five listed questionable, but they've all been upgrade
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to probable. I think it was a travel thing, had to get out
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pretty late last night, so they're just being cautious with it. But yeah,
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this should be a pretty fun game. Two of the MVP front runners
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to the last two MVPs facing off in which would be a pretty competitive game
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overall. I mean, both the teams are pretty solid defense. Please Sixers
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are a top three overall defense, but they struggle in a few areas.
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Their rim defense has been not that good. Bottom six. Transition defense has
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been struggling as well bottom four, But luckily for them, the Nuggets are
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not a great transition offense. They are scoring the six least points in transition
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on the season. Nuggets are top eleven overall defense, and they funnel a
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little bit more of the opposing team's offense to the interior. Top three three
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point defense, bottom thirteen rim defense. Yeah. Starting on the Nuggets side
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obviously starts with Nikola Jokic eleven point five K. He has not really played
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that well in terms of fantasy scoring lately. He also has not fared that
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well against Dowell Embiid. In their career matchups, he only has scored more
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than sixty three point five DK points. Oh, He's never scored more than
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sixty three and a half DK points versus Embiid, and he only averages twenty
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two points per game, nine rebounds, seven and a half assist. Yeah,
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And pairing that all with the recent performances of late, he has not
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scored more than sixty seven DK points in twenty straight games. So this kind
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of feels like a letdown spot for him. Could be even worse if you
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were to get into foul trouble. We know Embiid is an elite elite at
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drawing fouls, so this could be a pretty big letdown spot for him,
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much preferred Jamal Murray. He's definitely cooled off a little bit after a stretch
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of game scoring more than forty d K points, but he has now not
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scored more than thirty eight DK points in three straight games. The assist numbers
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have risen though, top eight and nine in the last two games. Tougher
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matchup for him versus the top six DVP team versus point guards, but Jamal
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is one of the better transition scorers on the Nuggets, so maybe he can
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find some success there. Like the spot a little bit more for Michael Porter
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Junior only six point six K. He's been playing really well lately, had
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forty and fifty one and a half DK points in back to back game.
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Shot the ball really well, going eight for twelve and nine for fifteen,
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and he even made seven three pointers versus the league's top overall three point defense,
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the Indiana Pacers, so I think, and he's also the nuggets top
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transition score I think this could be a pretty good spot for him. He
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definitely has a clear path to some upside. I think overall he would be
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my favorite Nugget option as of now. Aaron Gordon should benefit from the weaker
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interior defense of the Sixers, so I think he's fine at six point one
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K. I think KPC or KCP sorry is cheap enough to consider. I'm
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gonna have his hands full on defense with the tyres max assignment, but four
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point is definitely reasonable. Reggie Jackson's gonna get a ton of a ton of
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ownership on this slate. Three point nine K. Maybe that will update throughout
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the I think a lot of that had to do with Jamal being questionable,
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but he looks like he'll be fine. But I don't really love that three
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point nine K for Reggie Jackson. I think we could find value elsewhere or
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just try to fade that whole value tier. But that's gonna do it on
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the Denver side. On the sixer side pretty much. Joelle embiid or bust,
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He's the top spend up option of the slate. He's kind of gotten
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the better of the two of the matchup between him and Jokic went for eighty
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seven and a half DK points last time they faced off. That gets him
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tier. Defense has been pretty solid all year long, but Ki has been
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kind of vulnerable to some big fantasy scores against him and kind of give him
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some big ones to some weaker opponents. So I think if you're flipping a
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coin between Yokich and Embiid, it's Embiid for sure, with one hundred dollars
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cheaper, definitely more consistent upside as well. Yeah, Max and Harris seem
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way too expensive for life with Joel Embiid. Tobias Harris especially, he's shown
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an extremely low floor, while sharing the core with Embiid Uber is way too
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expensive. I don't think you can get to a five K Nicholas Patoom.
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I think Patrick Beverley is pretty interesting though. Four point six K should benefit
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from no Dantley Melton and should see upper twenties minutes for the on ball defense
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and Ramal Murrays, I think he'd be my preferred value option in this game.
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Let's go do it for that one. Next one, Sacramento Kings and
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the Phoenix Suns with a two forty four over under, Phoenix favored by five.
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I think this is definitely a game to attack, Probably the game to
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attack on the slate should be a very competitive Western Conference battle. The two
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teams playing extremely tight rotation and the Kings definitely like to push the pace.
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They moved up to eleventh in terms of pace of play on the year,
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definitely up from their season averages before darreon Fox. They are seventeenth defensive rating,
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middle of the pack rim defense, and giving up slightly more three point
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three pointers, so a good spot for some of these three point shooters on
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the Sun side, and Phoenix is a sixth They're sixteenth overall defensive rating,
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but bottom five in pace, bottom twelve room defense, middle of the pack
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in pretty much every other category. The area that both these teams kind of
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get beat in is pick and roll defense. Kings are bottom seven and the
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Suns are bottom ten, so some of these guards for each side are in
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a pretty good spot here. Start with the Kings, though, Demantisvonas just
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continues to crush whatever match of stone at him. Not another triple double last
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game versus Milwaukee put up sixty seven and point two five DK points along the
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way. Suns really don't have that great of an interior defense, so he
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should have no issues with this matchup. The downside is that the Phoenix is
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top three in DVP to centers on the season, so there's a little bit
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of downside there, But he's just playing too well right now, where matchups
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just don't seem the matter as much. Yeah, I really love the spot
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for Darren Fox. Though I had a little bit of a bounce back game
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last time. It only took him, you know, forty three minutes to
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pay off his tag, put up twenty six shots, forty seven DK points,
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thirty two real points. But this is a good match up for him
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versus the Suns who are getting torched in pick and roll defense, and Fox
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definitely thrives in that area. He's fourteenth overall in the league and points off
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of pick and roll averages over eight points per game. And yeah, the
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Suns have definitely been a spot to a tech with opposing guards all season long.
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So I think this is a really good price tag for Darren Fox.
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Same could be said for Milik Monks six point five K should benefit if Keegan
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Murray were to be ruled out, we would definitely see a bigger offensive responsibility
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in that case. And also if Key Murray would were to be ruled out,
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Trey Lyles would probably get the start and be a pretty solid value option
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four point eight K, so I would definitely like him. That's pretty much
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it, though. On the King side, pretty tight, tight pool on
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that end, and for Phoenix, Kevin Durant has not really shown great upside
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with this team fully healthy with the Big four, if you want to call
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it that. With Beal Nurkic Booker, Durant hasn't scored more than forty six
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d K points and four straight games, and the usage rate has definitely fallen
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twenty four percent over that stretch, so I'm pretty fine getting away from him.
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I prefer this matchup for Devin Booker, and he should definitely crush in
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this one. I mean, Booker is one of the best pick and roll
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players as well, just one spot ahead of Darren Fox, thirteenth overall in
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points per game off pick and roll eight point four points per game. He's
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gone back on track with backsback games of fifty plus DK points as well,
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taking twenty two shots in both of those games, added around five to seven
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rebounds and assists in each one, So he would be my preferred option on
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the Phoenix side of things. I think Bradley Bill is fine if you land
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on him. He's been playing pretty heavy minutes right now and flashed pretty good
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upside when the matchup has presented itself. To him, and I think this
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is a pretty good spot for him obviously the pick and roll stuff, so
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I think you're fine if you land on him at seven point four K.
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Same thing for Nurkic. He doesn't need many minutes to hit his value at
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that price tag should be fine for him in this matchup versus the Kings.
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They struggle with the pick and roll. Like I said, he's had double
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digit rebounds in three of his last four games, so he should be in
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a pretty good spot here. I think Eric Gordon, Schimids and Mets who
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are cheap enough to consider on this small slate, and I would probably prefer
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them to the Nuggets. Shock right now. I think Eric Gordon has a
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little bit of upside four point two K, but yeah, that's gonna do
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it for this game. Definitely a good one to attack. Last game on
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the slate. Okay, see versus the Clippers two thirty five and a half
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over under, Clippers favored by six and a half. Right now, a
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little bit of injury news to monitor here. We haven't gotten the injury report
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from the OKC side, but SGA was lifted questionable last night and it was
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a game time decision. Ended up playing didn't really have that good of a
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game, so we'll have to keep it. I'm just gonna double check really
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quick and see if anything that's come out on that as I'm recording this.
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Yeah, nothing, nothing yet, So yeah, we'll have to definitely monitor
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that. I think there is a good chance that he could sit here with
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the spread being what it is. I think if he's in this probably a
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three point spread or maybe closer. So that would definitely open up a little
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bit of value on the Okac side. But they're all pretty priced up right
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now, and the Clippers will be without Vika Zubach again here, so that
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should open up some value on the Clippers side. I'll start with the Clippers,
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just how things kind of shook out with no Zubac last game. Daniel
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Tye got the start, played twenty two minutes, Plumbley played sixteen minutes,
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so they split thirty eight of the center minutes. Russell Westbrook seemed like the
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biggest beneficiary from the Zubac injury. He played twenty nine minutes off the bench,
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saw big spike in the reboundings and assist totals as well. Rust played
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the final eighteen minutes of the game as well. Norman Palace saw thirty minutes
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off the bench. So the Clippers closing lineup was James Harden, Paul Jr,
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George Kawhi, Leonard Russell Westbrook, and Norman Powell. I think they
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could definitely go back to that again here, Okay, So he doesn't really
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have the prototypical type center, so I think that the Clippers will be fine
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if they can just put Kawhi Leonard on Chet. So I could definite see
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them running out there the small ball lineup again. But yeah, I mean
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both these teams are pretty pretty solid. Defense, is not many holes to
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poking their game, okay, see definitely funnels more of their defense to three
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point shooters, So guys like Paul, George, Norman Power should be in
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pretty decent spots. Clippers pretty solid all around. And yeah, on the
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okay C side, if SGA is in, then I pretty much have little
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to no interest on the okay C side. I mean Chet is eight point
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two K, pretty tough price side for him to pay off. Jaylon Williams,
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I guess would be fine at seven point three K, but this is
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a really really bad matchup for him. Giddy almost seven K is borderline unplayable
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with SGA in. I guess some of these secondary guys if you going to
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get to like Lou door Case and wall isa Joe, would be okay to
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mix in. But they're all projecting as negative values right now, so I
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wouldn't really be looking anything on the OKAC side. But if if SG is
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out, I think Jaylen Wentnis becomes a really good play He sees the biggest
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usage bump with SGA off the floor of the season. We've seen him add
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some more playmaking in the second unit in the past couple of games as well,
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so I think he would have pretty good upside At seven point three,
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k Giddy should probably see thirty minutes. He's been kind of losing minutes to
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some other you know, like Isaiah, Joe Kiss and Wallace, guys like
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that off the bench, and he hasn't really seen more than twenty five minutes
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in a while. So I think if SG is out, he might get
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up to thirty minutes and he would have pretty solid upside get triple double upside
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in that scenario. I think that would definitely bring guy like Cason Wallace into
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the starting lineup. I think he would be a pretty solid value option four
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point nine K, but those would be the main guys as I would be
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looking to. Maybe Aaron Wiggins would get some more run as well, but
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really would be looking to Cason Wallace, Jaylen Williams, and Josh Giddy,
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and then on the Clipper side outside of Paul George or Norm Powell and Russell
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Westbrook, who I have a ton of interest in. Kawhi Leonard has shown
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a really safe floor on the Clipper side of things when their big three has
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been fully healthy, scored no less than forty five DK points in three straight
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games. Paul George seems like the higher upside play on the team. Eight
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point four K. Pretty reasonable price. He might ownership might be squeezed with
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him being one hundred dollars cheaper than Kawhi and three hundred more expensive than Harden.
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But he saw forty forty two minutes last game with Zubak out of the
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lineup, and he didn't really score that well. It was a really tough
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matchup versus the Timberwolves. But I think anytime somebody's seen forty plus minutes you
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have to have some level of interest, and this is a decent spot for
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him versus eight defense that funnels a lot of scoring to three point shooters,
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and Paul George is taking over eight three point attempts per game right now,
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so I think that he could be in a pretty big spot here. I
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think Harden would be my least favorite. He just has not shown He's shown
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a really really low floor and not that great of a ceiling. One.
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All three are healthy, been consistently in the thirties for DK scoring, and
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that's just not going to cut it. Eight point one K. I think
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the upside case is definitely there still, though, if he could get the
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shot to fall. But he's just not taking a ton of shots right now.
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The assist totals are solid, but yeah, he's just not taking enough
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shots for me to have interest. But Russell Westbrook definitely gonna be my favorite
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option on this Clipper side of things. Had a really big game with Zubac
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out last time. I want to talk about the Daniel Tyson Mason Plumley thing.
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I would prefer Mason Plumley here three point seven K. You know,
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he was the backup center for this Clippers team, and I don't think that
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Tys would even be a part of this roster right now. If he didn't
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have that knee injury. Three point seven K pretty solid price sack for somebody
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seeing sixteen minutes. I think he's got a little bit of upside for more.
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He's a zero point nine to two fantasy point minute producer on the season,
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so I think he's got a little bit of upside if you were to
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get close to twenty minutes and three point seven K is definitely a reasonable price
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tag for him. But that is going to do it here for this small
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three games slate. Good luck tonight, everybody, me and title Tell Mell
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you be back tomorrow for the Wednesday show. Let you guys