Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NHL + NBA Best Bets Friday 2/27/26
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep.
- 0:01Speaker 2: Inside I want to kill myself. We are on Own
- 0:05Speaker 2: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:08Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:10Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
- 0:13Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
- 0:14Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
- 0:17Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
- 0:18Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
- 0:22Speaker 2: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at
- 0:26Speaker 2: all all in four that.
- 0:29Speaker 1: Have not had a good season.
- 0:31Speaker 2: Man with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the
- 0:35Speaker 2: slump continues.
- 0:36Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak.
- 0:38Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my bruins hat Man. I
- 0:42Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
- 0:45Speaker 1: Is that what it is?
- 0:46Speaker 2: I don't even know it's March ninth, I think who
- 0:49Speaker 2: even knows?
- 0:50Speaker 1: Man, I don't know what data is anymore. I'm not
- 0:53Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore.
- 0:54Speaker 2: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
- 0:58Speaker 2: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
- 1:01Speaker 1: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
- 1:05Speaker 1: yesterday it did not go well for me.
- 1:07Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:11Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:15Speaker 1: To the slumpers, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
- 1:20Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please.
- 1:22Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
- 1:25Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
- 1:34Speaker 2: towed back with you with toadsol Sports for Friday, February
- 1:39Speaker 2: twenty seventh. We're getting close to March madness.
- 1:42Speaker 1: Man.
- 1:43Speaker 2: We had a three and one night on the show
- 1:45Speaker 2: last night, easy outright win with Charleston's Southern. That line
- 1:49Speaker 2: was up to seven, but it didn't even matter because
- 1:52Speaker 2: they won the game outright. So that was a nice one. Drexel,
- 1:56Speaker 2: in a close game, did get it done. It seems
- 2:00Speaker 2: it was trending in the correct direction. I mean, it
- 2:02Speaker 2: was a slow, defensive game, which is what you want
- 2:04Speaker 2: with Drexels, so it was at their pace.
- 2:07Speaker 1: They were able to get it done although it was closed.
- 2:09Speaker 2: It was tied in the final minute of the game, probably,
- 2:11Speaker 2: but they were able to get it done. I think
- 2:13Speaker 2: they won by five, but I think probably on a
- 2:15Speaker 2: couple of intentional fouls at the end. And then you
- 2:19Speaker 2: see Riverside covered the eleven and a half although the
- 2:22Speaker 2: line was down to ten and a half in a
- 2:23Speaker 2: lot of spots, and it landed eleven, which is absolutely ridiculous.
- 2:28Speaker 2: So my eleven and a half did hit. Dude, they
- 2:32Speaker 2: should have covered every number. It was like a wire
- 2:34Speaker 2: to wire cover of a riverside. They were down seven
- 2:37Speaker 2: with like fifteen seconds left, and you usually do not
- 2:40Speaker 2: intentionally foul anymore when you're down seven plus because it's
- 2:43Speaker 2: three possessions, Like you're not gonna be able to come
- 2:45Speaker 2: back at that point. I don't know how they want
- 2:48Speaker 2: to losing that game by eleven. It makes no sense. Yeah,
- 2:53Speaker 2: I think it was basically a wired to wire cover.
- 2:54Speaker 2: And then my least favorite of my plays yesterday, the Bulls.
- 2:58Speaker 2: I shouldn't have even added it sucked. The Bulls faded
- 3:02Speaker 2: later in the game. I mean they weren't completely out
- 3:06Speaker 2: of position and maybe potentially get that cover still, but
- 3:09Speaker 2: didn't happen.
- 3:10Speaker 1: We're gonna move on to today.
- 3:11Speaker 2: I will have one play in each sport, so we
- 3:13Speaker 2: will be jumping back into the NHL today. I'm gonna
- 3:17Speaker 2: have one college basketball play and one NBA play. I
- 3:21Speaker 2: think my college basketball play is probably the most obvious
- 3:24Speaker 2: what it's gonna be already if you know how I
- 3:26Speaker 2: do things.
- 3:27Speaker 1: But let's get into it. Man. College basketball, we do have.
- 3:31Speaker 2: Miami Ohio getting a spotlight game at six pm on
- 3:35Speaker 2: CBS Sports number twenty one in Miami Ohio at Western Michigan.
- 3:42Speaker 2: Of course, Miami Ohio is the way better team here.
- 3:45Speaker 2: Western Michigan is not good. But Miami Ohio did already
- 3:48Speaker 2: beat Western Michigan by eleven at home, so there's the
- 3:52Speaker 2: chance that they don't take them as seriously. Though my
- 3:55Speaker 2: guess is they didn't cover the number there because they're
- 3:57Speaker 2: about an eleven point favorite tonight. They're fourteen and a
- 4:00Speaker 2: half in that one. But even so, you beat a
- 4:03Speaker 2: team by double digits, you may not take them seriously
- 4:05Speaker 2: the next time. It's a second straight road game, third
- 4:08Speaker 2: road game in four games for Miami Ohio. Here it
- 4:12Speaker 2: is their sixth road game in eight games as well.
- 4:15Speaker 1: So I think I said, did I say days? I
- 4:19Speaker 1: meant games?
- 4:20Speaker 2: But yes, six road games in the last eight games
- 4:25Speaker 2: could be a little bit.
- 4:25Speaker 1: Of a tricky spot for them.
- 4:27Speaker 2: However, it's not a good spot for Western Michigan, even
- 4:29Speaker 2: though you got to think, well, they'll probably get up
- 4:31Speaker 2: for a home game. They get a televised game against
- 4:33Speaker 2: Miami Ohio. I agree that should keep them focused, but
- 4:38Speaker 2: keep in mind they are coming of an upset.
- 4:40Speaker 1: Of Bowling Green.
- 4:40Speaker 2: That was a big double digit upset for Western Michigan
- 4:44Speaker 2: on the road. I think they caught Bowling Green after
- 4:46Speaker 2: they played Miami Ohio, so I don't want anything to
- 4:50Speaker 2: do with the game. Miami Ohio did drop from twelve
- 4:52Speaker 2: and a half to eleven and a half. Miami Ohio
- 4:56Speaker 2: is all the hype, so you got to think, well,
- 4:58Speaker 2: you know, if they're fourteen and a half at home,
- 5:00Speaker 2: eleven and a half does seem a little bit like
- 5:02Speaker 2: a big number on the road. I mean, I know
- 5:04Speaker 2: you got to adjust the numbers a little bit and whatever,
- 5:06Speaker 2: but probably the line value is on the Western Michigan side.
- 5:10Speaker 2: I guess i'd lean that way, but I don't want
- 5:12Speaker 2: to do that. You know, I don't want anything to
- 5:14Speaker 2: do with that. But the fact that they're coming off
- 5:15Speaker 2: an upset themselves, so I don't really want to do
- 5:18Speaker 2: anything with that.
- 5:20Speaker 1: Kyle, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
- 5:23Speaker 2: Yale at Cornell gets a TV game on ESPNU.
- 5:28Speaker 1: These are two of the better teams.
- 5:30Speaker 2: Than the IVY at the very least like probably two
- 5:32Speaker 2: of the top three in the IVY. I don't believe
- 5:34Speaker 2: Penn is actually that good. I think it's Yale, Harvard, Cornell,
- 5:37Speaker 2: or clearly the top three. Yale is coming off beating Penn,
- 5:41Speaker 2: but they barely got by them. I think Yale probably
- 5:45Speaker 2: were double digit favorites in that game or close to
- 5:47Speaker 2: it at home.
- 5:49Speaker 1: Nine and a half.
- 5:50Speaker 2: Yeah, so Yale is coming off a non covering win.
- 5:54Speaker 2: They are continuing their continuing their momentum here. But they
- 5:57Speaker 2: did already beat Cornell in absurd and at Yale they
- 6:01Speaker 2: beat them one oh two to sixty eight. So that
- 6:06Speaker 2: is a major, like kind of outlier type of result there. Man,
- 6:09Speaker 2: if you beat a team by forty points the first
- 6:12Speaker 2: time and that team is actually reasonably competitive with you,
- 6:17Speaker 2: I think you might take them for granted the next game.
- 6:19Speaker 1: So I do think that the I do think that
- 6:22Speaker 1: Cornell uh.
- 6:23Speaker 2: Is probably the way to look, just because that last
- 6:25Speaker 2: result was so insane.
- 6:27Speaker 1: Cornell is staying at home and they just took a
- 6:29Speaker 1: pretty ugly loss to Harvard.
- 6:30Speaker 2: Although I know Harvard is a good team as far
- 6:33Speaker 2: as the IVY is concerned, but still I would have
- 6:36Speaker 2: to lean to Cornell here.
- 6:37Speaker 1: It looks way too easy when you see that Yale.
- 6:39Speaker 2: Won by almost forty points the first time and now
- 6:42Speaker 2: they're laying four down from four and a half. I
- 6:45Speaker 2: would lean to Cornell in this one plus the points,
- 6:48Speaker 2: but it's not something I really want to get involved in,
- 6:51Speaker 2: especially with Yale off the non covering win like that.
- 6:54Speaker 2: But Cornell did just lose by like nineteen at home
- 6:57Speaker 2: to Harvard, so they might be in more of a
- 7:01Speaker 2: bounce back spot there. Yes, the winner of the IVY
- 7:05Speaker 2: makes the tournament. It's not the regular season winner anymore.
- 7:10Speaker 2: Though the IVY League added a four team tournament. I
- 7:14Speaker 2: don't know probably, I would say within the last twenty
- 7:18Speaker 2: years or so. I don't know how long they've had
- 7:20Speaker 2: their conference tournament, but they do have one. They don't
- 7:24Speaker 2: give the tournament bid to the regular season winner anymore.
- 7:27Speaker 2: The top four teams in the IVY play a tournament
- 7:31Speaker 2: to determine it. So it is not determined yet that
- 7:34Speaker 2: it will be Yale, although Yale is only one game
- 7:37Speaker 2: ahead of Harvard in the standings as well. But yeah,
- 7:41Speaker 2: it'll be Yale, Harvard, Cornell, I would imagine, and then
- 7:46Speaker 2: you know, it would be interesting if Dartmouth gets into
- 7:48Speaker 2: the tournament.
- 7:49Speaker 1: Maybe they'll be able to overtake Penn. I don't know,
- 7:51Speaker 1: but Dartmouth.
- 7:53Speaker 2: They haven't been to the tournament, like, they have not
- 7:55Speaker 2: been to the NCAA tournament probably since like the nineteen fifties.
- 7:58Speaker 2: So it would be interesting if Artmouth gets into the
- 8:01Speaker 2: IVY tournament. But they're not gonna win it, but you know,
- 8:04Speaker 2: just it would be interesting if they just have that chance,
- 8:07Speaker 2: you know, just as a little bit of a story there,
- 8:11Speaker 2: because they're having, you know, a season that's at least
- 8:14Speaker 2: not horrible, all right. Quinnipiac at Niagara is a little
- 8:18Speaker 2: bit of an interesting game because these teams that are
- 8:21Speaker 2: having to travel from like New England all the way
- 8:23Speaker 2: over to Buffalo. It's like, how much do they really
- 8:26Speaker 2: want to do that?
- 8:27Speaker 1: Man?
- 8:27Speaker 2: Although I'm gonna say that with Merrimack when I talk
- 8:29Speaker 2: about them in a little while, because Merrimack has nothing
- 8:32Speaker 2: left to play for in the matt Act.
- 8:34Speaker 1: They're already the one seed.
- 8:35Speaker 2: Quinnipiac is still playing for seeding, so they still might
- 8:39Speaker 2: show up because they still.
- 8:40Speaker 1: Have a chance to get the two seed.
- 8:41Speaker 2: I think they got, yeah, two games remaining but well,
- 8:46Speaker 2: and I should say, and also, they only beat Niagara
- 8:49Speaker 2: by one the last time they played them at home,
- 8:51Speaker 2: so Quinnipiac almost lost as a pretty big favorite at home,
- 8:55Speaker 2: so that might mean that they will take Niagara seriously here.
- 8:59Speaker 2: But it is a bit of a weird travel spot
- 9:01Speaker 2: going out to Buffalo though. I think these teams you
- 9:03Speaker 2: have to make this trip once a year, but kind
- 9:05Speaker 2: of at the end of the year.
- 9:06Speaker 1: It's a little weird.
- 9:07Speaker 2: Although Quinnipiac is also coming off an ugly loss at
- 9:10Speaker 2: home to Fairfield in state rival. I guess Fairfield in
- 9:15Speaker 2: State brother little brother to them maybe, so Quinnipiac is
- 9:19Speaker 2: coming off a losing game as a favorite, So there
- 9:22Speaker 2: are a couple of reasons to maybe look towards Quinnipiac here,
- 9:25Speaker 2: man because I think they are still going to want
- 9:27Speaker 2: to give it an effort here.
- 9:28Speaker 1: They barely beat Niagara before.
- 9:30Speaker 2: They're coming off of a loss at home that wasn't
- 9:32Speaker 2: very good, so I don't really want to fade them,
- 9:35Speaker 2: even though it is kind of a weird travel spot here.
- 9:38Speaker 2: Niagara does have one more game remaining against Merrimac. Now,
- 9:42Speaker 2: Niagara is not making the matt Act Tournament, so this
- 9:45Speaker 2: is Another thing we got to look at at the
- 9:47Speaker 2: end of the season is how many of these teams
- 9:52Speaker 2: are eliminated from the conference tournaments, Like these teams are
- 9:56Speaker 2: not going to play anymore after the regular season, and
- 9:59Speaker 2: that is the case in matt ACT. The last three
- 10:01Speaker 2: teams don't make the conference tournament and it's already decided.
- 10:05Speaker 2: So Canesius, Niagara, and Ryde are all eliminated from the
- 10:09Speaker 2: matt ACT tournament. So their final games will be these
- 10:13Speaker 2: regular season games.
- 10:15Speaker 1: So that's somebody keep in mind.
- 10:16Speaker 2: Where a team might like want to show up with
- 10:19Speaker 2: a big effort in what they know is gonna be
- 10:20Speaker 2: their absolute last game of the season, you.
- 10:23Speaker 1: Know, So that's somebody to keep in mind.
- 10:25Speaker 2: Whereas they are probably gonna be playing a team that
- 10:27Speaker 2: has more pressure on them and that team, you know
- 10:30Speaker 2: needs to you know, that team might be jocking for
- 10:33Speaker 2: positioning or when it's Merrimack, Merrimack has nothing to play
- 10:36Speaker 2: for at all, so because the Merrimack is already looking ahead
- 10:39Speaker 2: to the conference tournament. So you know, you gotta keep
- 10:43Speaker 2: these situations in mind here at the end of the
- 10:45Speaker 2: regular season. And yes, there will be no Buffalo representation
- 10:49Speaker 2: in the matt ACT tournament with both of those teams
- 10:52Speaker 2: being out of it.
- 10:53Speaker 1: But yeah, in this Niagara.
- 10:55Speaker 2: Quinnipiac game, I actually probably lean towards laying with Quinnipiac.
- 11:00Speaker 2: They're down for May and a half to eight, but
- 11:02Speaker 2: I think the spot is actually a little bit better
- 11:04Speaker 2: for them, even though it is an odd travel spot.
- 11:08Speaker 2: All right, best bet is the next game, which you
- 11:10Speaker 2: might have already figured. We're gonna go with George Washington
- 11:16Speaker 2: against Dayton on ESPN two. So you get a TV
- 11:19Speaker 2: college basketball game from me here at seven pm.
- 11:23Speaker 1: We're gonna lay it.
- 11:24Speaker 2: They're three and a half right now, and the public,
- 11:27Speaker 2: if they want involvement in this game, they're gonna look
- 11:29Speaker 2: at this and there's no way they're gonna lay points here, right.
- 11:31Speaker 2: They're gonna think, oh my god, Dayton. Well, Dayton just
- 11:34Speaker 2: smash Saint Louis. So that's pretty much the main reason
- 11:37Speaker 2: why I want to fade them here.
- 11:39Speaker 1: Which I'll get to that in a minute.
- 11:41Speaker 2: But people are gonna look at that fact and see
- 11:44Speaker 2: the Dayton as the better record overall and in conference,
- 11:47Speaker 2: and why would the public want to lay points against them?
- 11:50Speaker 1: You know what I mean? It looks so easy to
- 11:52Speaker 1: take them.
- 11:52Speaker 2: Oh, my god, I'm getting points with the better team. Well,
- 11:56Speaker 2: what the oddsbeggers are telling you is they're not really
- 11:59Speaker 2: the better team. That these teams are close to each other.
- 12:01Speaker 2: Ken Bum does bear that out. He has these teams
- 12:06Speaker 2: fairly close.
- 12:06Speaker 1: He's got.
- 12:09Speaker 2: George Washington actually three ranking spots higher than Dayton. George
- 12:13Speaker 2: Washington is ken Bum's absolute unluckiest Team's unluckiest team in
- 12:18Speaker 2: the entire country. And by the way, I apologize for
- 12:21Speaker 2: not talking about Liberty yesterday because that was a correct
- 12:24Speaker 2: lean for me and I completely forgot to talk about
- 12:27Speaker 2: the game. Liberty had lost their first game in the
- 12:30Speaker 2: in conference play. It was their first loss, so they
- 12:33Speaker 2: had a long win streak disrupted. You know, I talk
- 12:35Speaker 2: about that when a team takes their first conference loss.
- 12:38Speaker 2: It's been almost every single time that team has lost
- 12:41Speaker 2: the next game, except when I tried to face Saint
- 12:43Speaker 2: Louis after it happened to them. But yes, Liberty was
- 12:48Speaker 2: playing all these close games too, so I thought that
- 12:51Speaker 2: was gonna be a hangover, and indeed it was.
- 12:53Speaker 1: They lost outright last night to Kennesaw.
- 12:55Speaker 2: But the reason this reminded me of that was that
- 12:58Speaker 2: Liberty is ken Bum's number one luckiest team in the
- 13:01Speaker 2: entire country. So if they make the NCAA Tournament, they're
- 13:05Speaker 2: gonna be a team probably that you're gonna be looking at.
- 13:08Speaker 1: We're gonna be looking to fade them.
- 13:09Speaker 2: And that's even that's if they even are able to
- 13:11Speaker 2: make it through the Conference USA tournament, which is certainly
- 13:15Speaker 2: not a not a definite. But here George Washington, we're
- 13:20Speaker 2: gonna play on them because they have underperformed big time.
- 13:22Speaker 2: They're the unluckiest team in the country according to kem Bum,
- 13:26Speaker 2: so that's really something. Now, they do play at a
- 13:30Speaker 2: fast tempo, so there is a bit of a contrast
- 13:33Speaker 2: of styles here where George Washington has the better offense
- 13:36Speaker 2: out of these two teams, which does mean Dayton does
- 13:39Speaker 2: have the better defense. And usually I do like the
- 13:41Speaker 2: better defense getting points, and that is what Dayton is here.
- 13:45Speaker 2: But in this spot, I'm gonna go with George Washington
- 13:47Speaker 2: to control the pace, score and speed this game, mop Man,
- 13:51Speaker 2: because they're gonna want to speed it up. Dayton's probably
- 13:54Speaker 2: gonna want to slow the game down a bit, even
- 13:56Speaker 2: though they're kind of a mid tempo team this year.
- 13:59Speaker 1: But I think the home team.
- 14:02Speaker 2: Might be able to control the pace in a game
- 14:04Speaker 2: like this and hosting the game at home, you know,
- 14:07Speaker 2: on a Friday night.
- 14:08Speaker 1: I think it's kind of a.
- 14:08Speaker 2: Big deal for GW because I don't think they get
- 14:11Speaker 2: to host huge games like this on the ESPN networks
- 14:15Speaker 2: that often, so I think it will be.
- 14:16Speaker 1: A big deal for them. I think they will come
- 14:18Speaker 1: out with some fire.
- 14:20Speaker 2: Yes, these two teams are both playing for seeding in
- 14:22Speaker 2: the A ten Conference tournament, but seating only means so much.
- 14:27Speaker 1: Man.
- 14:28Speaker 2: You know, Dayton's not gonna get the one seed at
- 14:31Speaker 2: this point, so they're pretty much they are playing for
- 14:34Speaker 2: a first.
- 14:35Speaker 1: Round by I believe.
- 14:35Speaker 2: I think the top four teams do get a first
- 14:37Speaker 2: round by, but with three games remaining, and look at
- 14:41Speaker 2: the setup for them, man, Like I said, they just
- 14:43Speaker 2: beat Saint Louis by fifteen. That was a monster game
- 14:46Speaker 2: for Dayton at home. I think that was a TV
- 14:49Speaker 2: game for them too, huge, huge win for them.
- 14:54Speaker 1: It was actually it was not. It was on ESPN.
- 14:56Speaker 2: Plus I did have an on for a little while.
- 14:59Speaker 2: But yeah, monster win for Dayton and Dayton. By the way,
- 15:03Speaker 2: they already beat George Washington earlier in the season in
- 15:06Speaker 2: Dayton by five, so this is a little bit of
- 15:08Speaker 2: a revenge angle for GW. Here if you look at
- 15:11Speaker 2: what happened in this game, Dayton was a two and
- 15:13Speaker 2: a half point favorite, so the odds bakers were kind
- 15:16Speaker 2: of telling you that GW is a slightly better team
- 15:18Speaker 2: even back then. The one thing to really look at
- 15:23Speaker 2: in the box score is GW outrebounded Dayton in the game,
- 15:27Speaker 2: So George Washington actually beat Dayton in the most predictive metric,
- 15:31Speaker 2: which is rebounding. So GW actually played better than Dayton debatably,
- 15:36Speaker 2: and they led for a higher percentage of the game.
- 15:39Speaker 2: They led for more than half of the games, so
- 15:41Speaker 2: they actually had the upper hand in that game at
- 15:43Speaker 2: Dayton more than you would think. And then if you
- 15:46Speaker 2: look at what happened statistically otherwise, GW was minus eleven
- 15:52Speaker 2: in turnover so at home, I don't expect that to
- 15:54Speaker 2: be the case again, even though they're going up against
- 15:57Speaker 2: a good deffense, and I know GW has kind of
- 15:59Speaker 2: a frenetic offense, but minus eleven in turnovers that definitely
- 16:03Speaker 2: skewed the game against them.
- 16:05Speaker 1: That's a bit of an outlier.
- 16:07Speaker 2: And Dayton went to the free throw line thirty times
- 16:10Speaker 2: and hit ninety percent of their free throws. GW only
- 16:13Speaker 2: went twenty times it hit sixty percent, So the free
- 16:16Speaker 2: throws are a bit of an outlier in that game too,
- 16:18Speaker 2: and I don't really expect that to continue into this
- 16:21Speaker 2: game either. So they're definitely signs that this game should
- 16:25Speaker 2: be a lot different than this first game was. Man Like,
- 16:28Speaker 2: there are definitely some outliers to see in this box score, Like,
- 16:31Speaker 2: you're not gonna get a team shooting ninety percent from
- 16:33Speaker 2: the free throw line in most games, probably the free
- 16:36Speaker 2: throw disparity won't be as big in how many each
- 16:39Speaker 2: team gets, and or at least it won't be that
- 16:42Speaker 2: big against GW when they're the home team.
- 16:44Speaker 1: I wouldn't imagine.
- 16:46Speaker 2: And GW is probably not gonna be as bad as
- 16:49Speaker 2: sixty percent from the free throw line either, So actually
- 16:52Speaker 2: a lot of discrepancies to look at there. GW is
- 16:55Speaker 2: at minus three and a half here. That's what we're
- 16:57Speaker 2: going with. We're taking George Washington. It is not their
- 17:00Speaker 2: final home game, but they are coming back home off
- 17:03Speaker 2: a nice easy bounce back win over LASAL. I know
- 17:06Speaker 2: they looked good in that game, they put up over
- 17:07Speaker 2: one hundred points, but we're still going to do this here.
- 17:11Speaker 2: Man the spot dictates it. It's a horrible letdown spot
- 17:14Speaker 2: for dayton a lot going into this one Man numbers
- 17:19Speaker 2: being a little bit misleading a second matchup that I
- 17:21Speaker 2: think is beneficial to us here as well, like that
- 17:24Speaker 2: type of spot, So I think GW will be able
- 17:27Speaker 2: to make the adjustments in that second matchup there, all right,
- 17:33Speaker 2: Oh my neck? A Rider at Iona?
- 17:38Speaker 1: I thought, actually, I thought.
- 17:39Speaker 2: This was Ryder's last game. One of these teams is
- 17:42Speaker 2: playing their last regular season game. It may be Sacred Heart,
- 17:45Speaker 2: but Sacred Heart is going to make the conference tournament,
- 17:48Speaker 2: so they're not playing their absolute last game. But you know,
- 17:53Speaker 2: I don't even know if there was anything for me
- 17:55Speaker 2: to really talk about in this game. I thought it
- 17:56Speaker 2: was riders last game, but it isn't. A Rider did
- 17:59Speaker 2: just win their last home game against Niagara, which did
- 18:02Speaker 2: end a five game losing streak for them, so maybe
- 18:05Speaker 2: they will have momentum coming into this. Iona is coming
- 18:07Speaker 2: up a pretty big game against Merrimack where they played
- 18:10Speaker 2: hard they only lost by two, so they are coming
- 18:13Speaker 2: off some big games.
- 18:14Speaker 1: They played Saint Peter's the game before that.
- 18:17Speaker 2: They already actually they lost to Ryder once, so it's interesting,
- 18:21Speaker 2: so Iwonim might actually still take Ryder seriously because Ryder
- 18:24Speaker 2: actually beat them the other time they played them, so
- 18:26Speaker 2: that is kind of an interesting part of the handicap.
- 18:29Speaker 2: And it is Iona's last home game, so there are
- 18:31Speaker 2: some positives for Iona here. They're off from eleven and
- 18:35Speaker 2: a half to twelve though, But I don't know, man.
- 18:40Speaker 2: I do kind of lean towards taking the points with
- 18:42Speaker 2: Ryder in that one though, even though usually if the
- 18:47Speaker 2: better team lost the first matchup, they're gonna show up
- 18:51Speaker 2: in the next game. But you know, Iona is still
- 18:53Speaker 2: playing for seeding or whatever. Riders is not really playing
- 18:55Speaker 2: for a whole lot other than trying to get some
- 18:58Speaker 2: wins at the end of the season. I think as
- 19:00Speaker 2: far as what these teams did in their last games,
- 19:02Speaker 2: I think the spot does set up better for Rider
- 19:04Speaker 2: on that one. But it's a tough read, all right.
- 19:09Speaker 1: What are the games that I want to talk about here?
- 19:13Speaker 2: I mean, I did mention that Sacred Heart is playing
- 19:15Speaker 2: their last regular season game, but it is not their
- 19:18Speaker 2: final game because they will play in the matt Act tournaments,
- 19:21Speaker 2: so so I don't know how big.
- 19:24Speaker 1: That game will be for them. Although for Sacred Heart.
- 19:27Speaker 2: Just looking at that real quick, I guess, yeah, it's
- 19:30Speaker 2: weird that it's the last game.
- 19:31Speaker 1: It is their last home game.
- 19:32Speaker 2: They aren't a two game losing streak, but they did
- 19:34Speaker 2: just play a big game against Marist the game before that,
- 19:38Speaker 2: and they only lost by two to a superior team
- 19:41Speaker 2: to them, So sometimes that will take a lot out
- 19:45Speaker 2: of you, you know, and.
- 19:45Speaker 1: You won't have that much left.
- 19:49Speaker 2: They did beat Mount Saint Mary's on the road already,
- 19:51Speaker 2: by the way, so Sacred Heart is coming up a
- 19:53Speaker 2: big game and it's kind of a revenge spot for
- 19:56Speaker 2: Mount Saint Mary's where Sacred Heart might not take them
- 19:58Speaker 2: as seriously. So you know, maybe Sacred Heart's gonna start
- 20:02Speaker 2: looking ahead to the conference tournament.
- 20:05Speaker 1: The line in that one did go up from.
- 20:07Speaker 2: Two to three, but I would probably lean towards Mount
- 20:09Speaker 2: Saint Mary's in that one.
- 20:11Speaker 1: Not a strong opinion at all Merrimac.
- 20:13Speaker 2: Like I said, there's no way that I would lay
- 20:15Speaker 2: the points with Merrimack here because they have nothing to
- 20:17Speaker 2: play for. They already wrapped up the matt Ac one seed.
- 20:21Speaker 2: They're looking ahead to the conference tournament already. Do you
- 20:23Speaker 2: really think they're gonna want to go out to Buffalo
- 20:25Speaker 2: and really put it in an effort here against two
- 20:28Speaker 2: teams that are not making the matt Act Tournament. So
- 20:31Speaker 2: I think where it really might come to a head
- 20:33Speaker 2: is the second game against Niagara, where it's gonna be
- 20:36Speaker 2: Niagara's literal last game of the season at home and
- 20:40Speaker 2: Merrimack will have absolutely nothing to play for. That's a
- 20:43Speaker 2: game where you really might want to consider Niagara in
- 20:46Speaker 2: that one, depending on what happens tonight too. But yeah,
- 20:49Speaker 2: I don't think Merrimack is gonna give you that much
- 20:51Speaker 2: of an effort here in this one. I don't think
- 20:52Speaker 2: these teams have played this year, But I see no
- 20:55Speaker 2: reason at all why Merrimac should be laying double digits
- 20:58Speaker 2: on the road here. Kenizia just lost by twenty plus
- 21:01Speaker 2: on the road to Mount Saint Mary's. Now they're back home,
- 21:04Speaker 2: they have an opportunity to play the one seed in
- 21:06Speaker 2: the conference and actually put up a decent effort here.
- 21:10Speaker 2: So I think Canese just will actually get up for
- 21:12Speaker 2: this game. Merrimack down from ten to nine and a half.
- 21:15Speaker 2: Like like I said, I don't see how you could
- 21:17Speaker 2: justify having the line like that when Merrimack has literally
- 21:20Speaker 2: nothing to play for here. And they're traveling out to Buffalo.
- 21:25Speaker 2: It makes no sense. And Merrimack, by the way, they're
- 21:27Speaker 2: new to this conference, so they've never made this trip before.
- 21:30Speaker 2: I don't think the Buffalo trip in the matt act,
- 21:34Speaker 2: which is not a fun thing to do, even though
- 21:35Speaker 2: both these teams are bad. Yeah, the only way I
- 21:38Speaker 2: could play this game is to take the points with Canes.
- 21:41Speaker 2: Just the total is pretty low as well, at one
- 21:43Speaker 2: point thirty, so a point's probably gonna be at a
- 21:47Speaker 2: premium in that one too. Yeah, that one is close
- 21:53Speaker 2: to being a play for me, to be honest. It
- 21:55Speaker 2: just makes no sense that the line would be like that.
- 21:58Speaker 2: And Merrimack is kind of just rolling right now. They
- 22:00Speaker 2: do just barely get by Iona, though, but I think
- 22:03Speaker 2: Merrimack is starting to pack it in. But that game
- 22:05Speaker 2: was a two overtime game, man, So yeah, you could
- 22:08Speaker 2: argue that, well they barely got by as a huge
- 22:11Speaker 2: favor Well, it was a six and a half point favorite,
- 22:13Speaker 2: and a lot of times teams will bounce back from that.
- 22:15Speaker 2: But in this case, I think they're just done for
- 22:18Speaker 2: the regular season, man, Like, no reason for them to
- 22:21Speaker 2: put in a ton.
- 22:21Speaker 1: Of effort here. They got to get ready for the tournament.
- 22:24Speaker 2: I mean, they don't want to go completely rusty, you know,
- 22:26Speaker 2: so maybe they'll give you like half a game of
- 22:29Speaker 2: effort or something here. But again, even at the beginning
- 22:31Speaker 2: of the game, it might be tough for them because
- 22:33Speaker 2: they're coming off a double ot game. So and that
- 22:36Speaker 2: does mean that Iona also is by the way, so
- 22:38Speaker 2: that's another reason to fade Iona, because they're coming off
- 22:42Speaker 2: taking Merrimac to double overtime as a big underdog there.
- 22:46Speaker 2: So that's another reason to lean towards Ride or in
- 22:48Speaker 2: that one.
- 22:50Speaker 1: Okay, for some of the rest.
- 22:52Speaker 2: Of these games here, we do have a lot going
- 22:55Speaker 2: on in the Sun Belt here where I thought it
- 22:59Speaker 2: was a seven way tie for first place in the
- 23:01Speaker 2: Sun Belt when I talked about bracketology last time, I
- 23:04Speaker 2: apologize I forgot to mention South Delbaama is one of
- 23:08Speaker 2: those teams tied at the top of the conference. They're
- 23:10Speaker 2: a pretty solid team in the Sun Belt. But I
- 23:13Speaker 2: was wrong about the seven way tie. It's four teams
- 23:16Speaker 2: tied at the top and three teams tied one game
- 23:18Speaker 2: behind them, so it's a seven way race for the
- 23:23Speaker 2: one seed. Still, though Troy is one of those teams.
- 23:26Speaker 2: Troy is gonna be a big favorite here. But the
- 23:28Speaker 2: interesting thing about this Normally it would not be interesting
- 23:31Speaker 2: that they're playing U All Monroe. Okay, but here's the
- 23:33Speaker 2: interesting thing about this game.
- 23:36Speaker 1: Two things.
- 23:36Speaker 2: One, U All Monroe almost beat Troy at home three
- 23:40Speaker 2: games ago, so Troy might take them seriously for that reason,
- 23:43Speaker 2: because Troy knows they almost lost to them.
- 23:45Speaker 1: Now.
- 23:46Speaker 2: The other thing is U All Monroe has nothing to
- 23:48Speaker 2: play for here, even though this is their last regular
- 23:51Speaker 2: season game. Every team in the Sun Belt makes the
- 23:55Speaker 2: conference tournament, and U all Monroe already is guaranteed the
- 23:58Speaker 2: fourteen seed in the tournament. None of the other seeds
- 24:02Speaker 2: have been clinched by any of the teams. So it's
- 24:04Speaker 2: hilarious that Jolman Roe is that bad that they're five
- 24:09Speaker 2: games behind their nearest competitor in the conference, and actually
- 24:12Speaker 2: Oldamanion and Georgia State actually aren't even that bad. I
- 24:15Speaker 2: think Louisiana is worse than they are. So interesting there
- 24:20Speaker 2: that New Olman Roe has nothing to play for basically
- 24:23Speaker 2: other than the fact that, yeah, maybe they'll get up
- 24:25Speaker 2: for a game against one of the top teams Troy
- 24:27Speaker 2: like they did last time. But Troy has something to
- 24:30Speaker 2: play for because they're vibe for the one seed.
- 24:33Speaker 1: Jolman.
- 24:33Speaker 2: Roe is already locked into the bottom seed here, and
- 24:36Speaker 2: Troy might take them seriously after almost losing them a
- 24:39Speaker 2: couple of games ago, because you know, I think Troy
- 24:41Speaker 2: might have been looking ahead to South Alabama. It was
- 24:43Speaker 2: a third road game in a row for them. Wasn't
- 24:46Speaker 2: the easiest spot. But now this sets up way better
- 24:48Speaker 2: for Troy because it is Senior Day for them, Senior Night,
- 24:52Speaker 2: it is their final home games, so they might get
- 24:54Speaker 2: up a little bit extra for that reason. They just
- 24:57Speaker 2: won easily against Louisiana Yeoman Rose on a losing skid
- 25:01Speaker 2: and they probably want to at least, I guess, maybe
- 25:03Speaker 2: try to win a game. Yeah, they did just lose
- 25:05Speaker 2: by thirty plus, So I'm not gonna say you're not
- 25:07Speaker 2: gonna get an effort out of them here, But I
- 25:09Speaker 2: would lean to Troy in this one, man. Troy does
- 25:14Speaker 2: have reasons to show up here. They're nineteen point favorite there.
- 25:19Speaker 2: So for all the reasons that I state it, and.
- 25:20Speaker 1: I don't want to.
- 25:21Speaker 2: I feel like I repeat myself too much. It makes
- 25:23Speaker 2: the show longer, man, But yeah, I would probably lay
- 25:26Speaker 2: it with Troy if I was gonna do anything with
- 25:28Speaker 2: that game. The big game of the night on Fox
- 25:32Speaker 2: at eight pm is in the Big Ten, number three
- 25:37Speaker 2: Michigan at number ten Illinois.
- 25:39Speaker 1: This is a huge game, dude. It's an interesting game.
- 25:43Speaker 2: These teams are both projected to be top two seeds
- 25:46Speaker 2: in the tournament. Michigan is very close to wrapping up
- 25:51Speaker 2: the Big Ten regular season title.
- 25:53Speaker 1: In fact, I believe they would clinch it with a win.
- 25:56Speaker 2: Illinois is one of the teams that does have the
- 25:59Speaker 2: potential to tie Michigan. They would have to win tonight
- 26:02Speaker 2: for that to even be a possibility. Michigan's not gonna
- 26:06Speaker 2: lose out, thom Man, There's no way. But is there
- 26:09Speaker 2: the potential that they lose this game?
- 26:12Speaker 1: You know, maybe? Actually, you know what it is.
- 26:14Speaker 2: I guess it's theoretically possible that Michigan loses out. Highly unlikely,
- 26:18Speaker 2: but they do have road games here against Illinois Iowa,
- 26:21Speaker 2: and then they finish against Michigan State, who, as we
- 26:24Speaker 2: saw last night, Michigan State does have the ability to
- 26:27Speaker 2: pretty much beat anybody on any given night. So yeah,
- 26:33Speaker 2: there's a lot to think about in this game, man.
- 26:35Speaker 2: But I think the fact that Michigan knows, hey, if
- 26:37Speaker 2: we win, we clinched the big ten. I think that
- 26:39Speaker 2: kind of puts some pressure on you, you know what
- 26:41Speaker 2: I mean, Like, I think that makes you a little
- 26:43Speaker 2: bit overvalued. So I don't like that aspect of this
- 26:46Speaker 2: from Michigan. Michigan is coming off a lackluster game against Minnesota.
- 26:52Speaker 2: I gave you guys Minnesota as a player in that one.
- 26:54Speaker 2: Minnesota definitely covered. Michigan only won by ten is twenty
- 26:58Speaker 2: two and a half point favorites.
- 27:00Speaker 1: They were coming off that.
- 27:01Speaker 2: Huge game against Duke, two huge games against Purdue and Duke,
- 27:05Speaker 2: and they had this Illinois game on deck.
- 27:06Speaker 1: So that was a major sandwich spot.
- 27:09Speaker 2: Plus it was a hangover spot after the Duke game
- 27:11Speaker 2: and loss of a long win streak. So I think
- 27:14Speaker 2: you knew you weren't going to get that great an
- 27:16Speaker 2: effort out of Michigan there. So maybe you could debate
- 27:19Speaker 2: that Michigan will bounce back and give you a better
- 27:21Speaker 2: effort here. But this is also a monster game for Illinois.
- 27:24Speaker 2: They're coming off a horrible game against UCLA where Illinois
- 27:30Speaker 2: had that game put away. Man, they're winning that game
- 27:32Speaker 2: by twenty plus early and they wind up losing the game.
- 27:36Speaker 2: Now the problem for Illinois is they're having to travel
- 27:38Speaker 2: across time zones. They're traveling back from the Pacific coast,
- 27:42Speaker 2: and they had to play multiple overtimes in that game.
- 27:47Speaker 2: But I guess the good thing for Illinois they haven't
- 27:49Speaker 2: played since Saturday, so they have extra rest after the
- 27:51Speaker 2: double overtime. Michigan played in the middle of the week
- 27:56Speaker 2: on Tuesday, so there is more rest on the side
- 27:59Speaker 2: of Illinois.
- 28:01Speaker 1: So what do we do with this game?
- 28:02Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I'm not touching the game. Michigan up
- 28:06Speaker 2: from one to two. Here, sixty nine percent of tickets,
- 28:08Speaker 2: only sixty six percent of the cash.
- 28:12Speaker 1: Wow, it's a It's a tough call. Man.
- 28:14Speaker 2: Michigan is definitely the better defense, So I do you know,
- 28:17Speaker 2: I usually do like the better defense in like a
- 28:20Speaker 2: pick the winner type of scenario. Michigan's the number two
- 28:23Speaker 2: defense in the country according to Kenbom. Illinois not good
- 28:27Speaker 2: on defense, but they are the number one offense according
- 28:30Speaker 2: to Kenpom.
- 28:33Speaker 1: Now, Illinois plays slow.
- 28:34Speaker 2: That's the other thing to keep in mind, very very
- 28:36Speaker 2: strange that the offensive team in the matchup is actually
- 28:39Speaker 2: gonna be the team trying to slow the game down.
- 28:42Speaker 2: And you're used to Illinois being like a fast paced
- 28:44Speaker 2: team in recent years, and they still have the same
- 28:46Speaker 2: coach Underwood, but maybe he adapts to what his personnel
- 28:51Speaker 2: looks like and whatever. We have a slow paced Illinois
- 28:55Speaker 2: team this year, and maybe they will slow it down
- 28:57Speaker 2: and frustrate Michigan in this one. You know, I think
- 29:00Speaker 2: I would lean with the market in this one and
- 29:02Speaker 2: lead towards taking the points with Illinois.
- 29:04Speaker 1: But it's a tough call there.
- 29:07Speaker 2: Akron at Kent State gets espn U billing at eight pm.
- 29:11Speaker 1: Pretty good game man. In the MAC Conference.
- 29:14Speaker 2: Here Akron is still alive for the one seed in
- 29:20Speaker 2: the MAC. But of course their one loss was to
- 29:22Speaker 2: Miami Ohio, and of course we know Miami Ohio hasn't
- 29:26Speaker 2: lost and they may very well go undefeated for the
- 29:28Speaker 2: rest of the regular season. This is definitely Akron's most
- 29:32Speaker 2: difficult game remaining, and the setup is not that easy,
- 29:35Speaker 2: as they're playing a fifth road game in seven games.
- 29:39Speaker 2: That's not easy to do, man. So Acron's traveling a
- 29:42Speaker 2: lot of the at least with Kent State. They're staying
- 29:44Speaker 2: within the state of Ohio for this, so it's a
- 29:48Speaker 2: familiar travel spot for them.
- 29:50Speaker 1: It is a big rivalry game.
- 29:52Speaker 2: Akron already won the first meeting in Akron by seventeen,
- 29:55Speaker 2: which might mean that Kent will be the team to.
- 29:58Speaker 1: Make the adjustments here.
- 29:59Speaker 2: Akron playing a lot lot of road games here coming
- 30:01Speaker 2: off an easy double digit win over Buffalo, Kent State
- 30:05Speaker 2: is coming off a bad performance where they barely got
- 30:07Speaker 2: by Central Michigan as a big favorite, but that was
- 30:11Speaker 2: an ugly spot for Kent State. Man, I talked about
- 30:14Speaker 2: that game, and I did have some reservations. I leaned
- 30:17Speaker 2: to Central Michigan, but one of my reservations was Kent
- 30:20Speaker 2: State had actually lost to Central Michigan earlier in the year,
- 30:23Speaker 2: so I thought, maybe they'll take them seriously. But the
- 30:25Speaker 2: problem was Kent State had just played Bowling Green on
- 30:28Speaker 2: the road, which is a pretty big game, and they
- 30:30Speaker 2: had this huge game against Akron on TV on deck.
- 30:34Speaker 2: So it was still a pretty bad spot for Kent State.
- 30:37Speaker 2: They barely got through. But you know, I talk about
- 30:39Speaker 2: this one. A big favorite barely gets by an inferior
- 30:43Speaker 2: team a lot of times it's because they're looking ahead,
- 30:46Speaker 2: which I think they were, So I think you're gonna
- 30:47Speaker 2: get a much better effort out of Kent after that
- 30:50Speaker 2: bad game. So I do lean to Kent State in
- 30:52Speaker 2: this game. Akron down from four and a half to four.
- 30:55Speaker 2: Here seventy one percent of tickets, only fifty eight percent
- 30:58Speaker 2: of the cash on them. I would take the points
- 31:00Speaker 2: with Kent I know Akron I keep saying they're the
- 31:02Speaker 2: best team in that conference. I still think they are,
- 31:06Speaker 2: with Miami Ohio second, but I think Kent State is
- 31:08Speaker 2: probably the third best team in the conference, although their
- 31:12Speaker 2: defense does leave something to be desired. App State in
- 31:16Speaker 2: Texas State is actually the only game in the Sun
- 31:21Speaker 2: Belt tonight between two teams that are in that seventeen mix.
- 31:25Speaker 2: You'd think there'd be more games involving those two teams,
- 31:28Speaker 2: involving those seven teams tonight playing each other, but there's
- 31:32Speaker 2: only one as far as I could see. It's this
- 31:35Speaker 2: game app State against who did I say, Oh, yeah,
- 31:38Speaker 2: Texas State. So Texas State is one game behind them.
- 31:42Speaker 2: I believe they did not play this season. So this
- 31:45Speaker 2: is the first meeting between these two teams, the only
- 31:48Speaker 2: meeting now. It's app State's regular season finale. They did
- 31:52Speaker 2: just beat Georgia Southern in their home finale. Georgia Southern
- 31:56Speaker 2: not a great team though, Texas State is coming off
- 31:59Speaker 2: a really ugly loss to Louisiana.
- 32:02Speaker 1: Now.
- 32:02Speaker 2: The problem for Texas State though, is that did break
- 32:05Speaker 2: a seven game win streak for them. They were on fire, dude,
- 32:08Speaker 2: and then I think they were in a letdown spot
- 32:10Speaker 2: after a nice win over South Alabama with app State
- 32:13Speaker 2: on deck. I think I might have talked about that game.
- 32:15Speaker 2: I leaned to Louisiana there second straight road game too,
- 32:19Speaker 2: So it was a bad spot for Texas State there
- 32:21Speaker 2: and they lost the game. Now, when a team loses
- 32:24Speaker 2: a win streak, a lot of times it will hang
- 32:25Speaker 2: them over. But you gotta think Texas State is gonna
- 32:29Speaker 2: get up for this game. Man, It's senior night, it's
- 32:31Speaker 2: a final home game. They're playing against one of the
- 32:34Speaker 2: teams that's tied to first place. They got a chance
- 32:37Speaker 2: to pull into a tie with them here, and they
- 32:39Speaker 2: would have the tiebreaker too, so they'd pull ahead of
- 32:41Speaker 2: Apps State if they got the win here, because I
- 32:44Speaker 2: think the tiebreaker would be the head to head matchup.
- 32:46Speaker 1: And this is the only one the money is coming
- 32:49Speaker 1: in ont of Texas State. I do agree with that.
- 32:51Speaker 2: Side, even though I worry a little bit about the
- 32:54Speaker 2: loss of wind streak hangover but I think the circumstances
- 32:59Speaker 2: kind of mitigate that Texas State is fliped from one
- 33:01Speaker 2: point dog to a pick them seventy five tickets, eighty
- 33:04Speaker 2: nine percent of the cash on them. I agree with
- 33:07Speaker 2: that move in that when I lean to Texas State
- 33:09Speaker 2: there as well, it would be a money line play.
- 33:14Speaker 2: And Coastal is at James Madison in that conference, that's
- 33:17Speaker 2: a game between Coastal is one of the teams that's
- 33:21Speaker 2: tied one game behind the lead in the conference that
- 33:24Speaker 2: James Madison is only one game behind that. So this
- 33:27Speaker 2: Sun Belt Conference is insane, dude, Like the entire conference
- 33:30Speaker 2: is within five games of each other except for you
- 33:33Speaker 2: all Monroe. James Madison's on a six game win streak.
- 33:37Speaker 2: They've been playing good basketball. This is their final home
- 33:40Speaker 2: game as well, so and final games they might show
- 33:44Speaker 2: up a little bit extra for that for Senior Night whatever.
- 33:47Speaker 1: Uh.
- 33:47Speaker 2: They already beat Coastal on the road, though, so it
- 33:50Speaker 2: is the road revenge angle for Coastal here, so we'll
- 33:54Speaker 2: see if that comes into play as far as Coastal
- 33:58Speaker 2: is concerned. They only beat them by two on the road, though,
- 34:00Speaker 2: so they might not have covered because James Madison, well,
- 34:03Speaker 2: they're six and a half point favorite here, so they're
- 34:05Speaker 2: probably a slight underdog at Coastal probably, but I don't know.
- 34:08Speaker 2: That was only a few games ago they were one
- 34:12Speaker 2: and a half way favorites, so they did cover in
- 34:14Speaker 2: that one Coastal.
- 34:16Speaker 1: This is their final regular season game as well.
- 34:18Speaker 2: They're coming up beating Georgia State, which is not an
- 34:21Speaker 2: impressive win.
- 34:24Speaker 1: And then who did James Madison just beat?
- 34:26Speaker 2: I don't even remember. Oh yeah, Georgia Southern, all right,
- 34:30Speaker 2: So yeah, in this game. I don't know what to
- 34:32Speaker 2: do with this game. It's just kind of interressing that
- 34:36Speaker 2: JMU has worked their way up to within two games
- 34:39Speaker 2: of the conference lead here, even though.
- 34:41Speaker 1: They're in eighth place.
- 34:43Speaker 2: Really really insane things going on in the Sun Belt,
- 34:47Speaker 2: and it's all for one team to get like a
- 34:49Speaker 2: fourteen or fifteen seed. James Madison is a six point
- 34:54Speaker 2: favorite in this game for what it's worth, you know,
- 34:58Speaker 2: I I don't I think Coastal is that good, but
- 35:02Speaker 2: and they're not the better team here, but I don't know.
- 35:04Speaker 1: I probably lean their way a little bit.
- 35:06Speaker 2: In the road revenge angle, but I don't really want
- 35:08Speaker 2: to fade a team in their conference final either man,
- 35:12Speaker 2: So a lot of interesting stuff going on. Then you know,
- 35:17Speaker 2: we have Louisiana at Arkansas State in the Sun Belt.
- 35:19Speaker 2: As I said, Louisiana had pulled off that upset over
- 35:23Speaker 2: Texas State, but they actually played again after that and
- 35:25Speaker 2: lost to Troy. Now they're playing an Arkansas State team
- 35:29Speaker 2: that just beat them the game before the Texas State game.
- 35:32Speaker 2: So Arkansas State won at Louisiana already, So maybe a
- 35:36Speaker 2: little bit of a road revenge angle for Louisiana here.
- 35:39Speaker 2: Arkansas State does have something to play for, though, because
- 35:43Speaker 2: they're trying to get into the mix for the one
- 35:45Speaker 2: seed discussion here. I don't know if they could actually
- 35:48Speaker 2: get it depending on the tie breakers. I don't know
- 35:50Speaker 2: who has what tiebreaker in the Sun Belt. It's impossible
- 35:53Speaker 2: to keep track of it. Arkansas State is playing their
- 35:56Speaker 2: final home game, though, and staying at home coming off
- 36:00Speaker 2: a performance where, yeah, they didn't do that well against
- 36:02Speaker 2: Southern Miss in their last game.
- 36:06Speaker 1: They're a fifteen point favorite here in this one. Yeah.
- 36:10Speaker 1: I don't have a whole lot else to say about
- 36:12Speaker 1: this game.
- 36:12Speaker 2: Even I think Arkansas State might be the best team
- 36:14Speaker 2: in this conference, I probably wouldn't.
- 36:16Speaker 1: Lay fifteen with them though, you know, I mean.
- 36:20Speaker 2: Like these teams that you know they're trying to get
- 36:22Speaker 2: the one seed and whatever in the conference, you know,
- 36:25Speaker 2: they're probably gonna be a little bit overvalue to us.
- 36:27Speaker 2: So probably hadn't leaned towards the road revenge angle there.
- 36:30Speaker 2: Georgia Southern is at Marshall on ESPN two. They get
- 36:34Speaker 2: a TV game. Georgia Southern I don't think is as
- 36:37Speaker 2: good as their record makes them look a though again
- 36:39Speaker 2: they haven't been playing like it recently anyway, They've lost
- 36:42Speaker 2: six of their last seven.
- 36:44Speaker 1: After I told you they're not as good as their
- 36:46Speaker 1: record looks.
- 36:48Speaker 2: Maybe they'll try to get something going here, but it
- 36:50Speaker 2: is a fourth road game in a row, which is
- 36:52Speaker 2: not gonna be that easy, and they're already beat Marshall
- 36:55Speaker 2: at home, So Marshall might make the adjustments here, man,
- 36:58Speaker 2: because Marshall.
- 37:01Speaker 1: Is clearly the better team here, and.
- 37:02Speaker 2: The fact that they lost to Georgia Southern at home
- 37:05Speaker 2: and now they're playing their final home game, they're staying
- 37:07Speaker 2: at home of an easy win overrole dominion, Marshall is
- 37:11Speaker 2: vying for the one seed here, so ye, maybe they'll
- 37:13Speaker 2: be a little bit overvalued for that reason. But I
- 37:16Speaker 2: think the spot does set up better for Marshall here man.
- 37:19Speaker 1: Too many road games for Georgia Southern in a row.
- 37:21Speaker 2: Here, Marshall probably a bit angry about losing in the
- 37:25Speaker 2: earlier of the season and maybe having the adjustments to make.
- 37:28Speaker 2: Here Marshall did drop from eight to seven. But I
- 37:30Speaker 2: think if I was gonna do anything with the game,
- 37:31Speaker 2: I would probably lay it with the Marshall me, you know,
- 37:35Speaker 2: just analyzing sides here man. And then we're gonna have
- 37:38Speaker 2: four NHL games to talk about five NBA and I
- 37:41Speaker 2: have one playing each of them. And I'll be back
- 37:43Speaker 2: in one second. All right, NHL, let's get into it, man,
- 39:19Speaker 2: all right. First game up is Buffalo at Florida. I
- 39:23Speaker 2: think at this point every NHL team has played since
- 39:26Speaker 2: the Olympic break. Now, not entirely sure about that. Buffalo
- 39:30Speaker 2: did beat in New Jersey coming out of the break,
- 39:32Speaker 2: a nice road win for them, two to one.
- 39:35Speaker 1: Now they have to travel down to Florida.
- 39:36Speaker 2: They do have Tampa Bay on deck, who just beat
- 39:39Speaker 2: them in Tampa in overtime at February third. And by
- 39:43Speaker 2: the way, Buffalo actually went into Florida and beat them
- 39:47Speaker 2: the day before that in Florida. So this is a
- 39:49Speaker 2: little bit of a quick ish revenge spot for Florida
- 39:53Speaker 2: having lost at home to Buffalo earlier in the month,
- 39:56Speaker 2: so Florida might have some adjustments to make your man
- 40:00Speaker 2: a little bit of a weird travel spot for Buffalo
- 40:03Speaker 2: to have to travel down here.
- 40:05Speaker 1: Florida is staying at home. Florida just had an easy win.
- 40:08Speaker 2: They're on a back to back, but remember that not
- 40:11Speaker 2: all back to backs are made equal, and for Florida,
- 40:14Speaker 2: they were coming out of the break, so that's their
- 40:16Speaker 2: only game they played since the break was yesterday, so
- 40:19Speaker 2: I'm not as worried about the back to back, although
- 40:21Speaker 2: probably they will switch to tarsof in net because they
- 40:24Speaker 2: did use Bobrovsky last night.
- 40:26Speaker 1: He is their better goalie.
- 40:28Speaker 2: They won easily, they looked good five to one against
- 40:31Speaker 2: a not very good Toronto team. But I think I
- 40:33Speaker 2: would still lean to Florida on this one man, even
- 40:36Speaker 2: though they are on the back to back, they're staying
- 40:38Speaker 2: at home. They have a little bit of a quick
- 40:40Speaker 2: revenge spot, and again, they hadn't played for quite a
- 40:44Speaker 2: while before.
- 40:44Speaker 1: That game, so it's not like they're gonna be like
- 40:47Speaker 1: totally tired or.
- 40:48Speaker 2: Anything just because they played yesterday, because we're not in
- 40:51Speaker 2: the thick of the schedule at this point right now,
- 40:55Speaker 2: Florida down from minus one twenty five to minus one fourteen,
- 40:58Speaker 2: but they are getting the money now. It looks like
- 41:00Speaker 2: Buffalo being kind of a public side, believe it or not.
- 41:03Speaker 1: Sixty of the tickets, fifty two of the cash.
- 41:06Speaker 2: Though on Florida, the public just they're kind of off
- 41:09Speaker 2: of Florida now.
- 41:10Speaker 1: Man, Buffalo is having a good season. They have the
- 41:13Speaker 1: better record.
- 41:14Speaker 2: But yeah, even though the oddsmakers are actually even telling you,
- 41:18Speaker 2: basically the Buffalo is the better team here.
- 41:20Speaker 1: But in this spot I.
- 41:21Speaker 2: Think Florida is the opinion that I would have.
- 41:26Speaker 1: Vegas is at Washington.
- 41:29Speaker 2: Vegas just beat LA a couple of nights ago. Even
- 41:33Speaker 2: though they'd beaten them going into the break, they also
- 41:36Speaker 2: beat them coming out of the break. Now Vegas has
- 41:38Speaker 2: traveling cross country from LA to Washington. Kind of a
- 41:41Speaker 2: weird spot for Vegas step to adust time zones like that.
- 41:46Speaker 2: For I get, well, they're playing Washington, then they're playing Pittsburgh,
- 41:50Speaker 2: I guess, so it's not just for one game. Washington
- 41:53Speaker 2: just beat Philadelphia coming out of the break on Wednesday,
- 41:55Speaker 2: they're staying at home. To me, I think the spot
- 41:58Speaker 2: is better for Washington in here just because of the
- 42:01Speaker 2: travel The money looks like it's all coming in a Vegas.
- 42:04Speaker 1: But I don't really agree with it.
- 42:06Speaker 2: Washington down for minus one fifteen it minus won twelve
- 42:08Speaker 2: fifty seven percent of tickets on them, seventy five percent
- 42:11Speaker 2: of the cash on Vegas. I think it might be
- 42:14Speaker 2: numbers guys who are doing that because Vegas is the
- 42:17Speaker 2: better team here.
- 42:18Speaker 1: But I don't like how the travel spot sets up
- 42:22Speaker 1: for them there, man.
- 42:23Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, you could make the argument that well,
- 42:25Speaker 2: teams do well when they start a road trip usually
- 42:27Speaker 2: like they have like some momentum, and maybe you consider this.
- 42:30Speaker 1: To be that for Vegas, But I don't know.
- 42:33Speaker 2: It is a bit of a weird travel spot though,
- 42:35Speaker 2: Like to me, it seems like it is.
- 42:37Speaker 1: Although these West Coast.
- 42:39Speaker 2: Teams going east to play a game, it's a lot
- 42:41Speaker 2: easier for them to do that than for East Coast
- 42:43Speaker 2: teams to have to go west and play a really
- 42:45Speaker 2: late game on their biological clock. Like for Vegas, they're
- 42:48Speaker 2: just going to be playing a game that's biologically at
- 42:51Speaker 2: like four in the afternoon for them. So that's nowhere
- 42:54Speaker 2: near as bad because you still have energy at that
- 42:56Speaker 2: time of the day.
- 42:58Speaker 1: Dirty sock, what's up?
- 42:59Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. Next game up is gonna be
- 43:04Speaker 2: my play and we are gonna play Utah on the
- 43:07Speaker 2: money line. We will play the Mammoth against Minnesota.
- 43:11Speaker 1: Here. The public is probably gonna be on Minnesota.
- 43:14Speaker 2: I mean they're gonna see this record and think, well,
- 43:16Speaker 2: I'm getting Minnesota.
- 43:17Speaker 1: As an underdog here.
- 43:18Speaker 2: This looks crazy, right, like the osmakers are actually telling
- 43:21Speaker 2: you Utah is the better team at least in this spot.
- 43:25Speaker 2: They are, and it does have to do with the
- 43:27Speaker 2: goaltender as well here, which I'll talk about as well.
- 43:32Speaker 2: But yeah, from Minnesota. You know, I've been talking about
- 43:34Speaker 2: how I don't think they're as good as the record looks.
- 43:36Speaker 2: They play a lot of close games. They've had a
- 43:38Speaker 2: lot more overtime games than Utah has. Utah just has
- 43:42Speaker 2: a lot more games that have landed in regulation. Now, Minnesota,
- 43:47Speaker 2: the record is good, yes, that's true. The road record
- 43:49Speaker 2: is actually good and they don't play that many OT
- 43:52Speaker 2: games on the road, at least when they do it
- 43:55Speaker 2: looks like they win them. But for Utah, they're good
- 43:58Speaker 2: at home though Utah seventeen nine and two at home,
- 44:01Speaker 2: So Utah has some really huge home roads splits, whereas
- 44:04Speaker 2: Minnesota is actually pretty good both at home and on
- 44:07Speaker 2: the road. Utah is specifically significantly better at home, I believe.
- 44:11Speaker 2: So we are getting Utah where they play better, I
- 44:14Speaker 2: think because they have, you know, an elevation edge here.
- 44:17Speaker 2: But look at how this spot sets up, man, Minnesota
- 44:21Speaker 2: just beat the Avalanche yesterday, so they're on a back
- 44:24Speaker 2: to back, and I know, like I just said, with Florida,
- 44:27Speaker 2: the back to back isn't as bad because they hadn't
- 44:31Speaker 2: played since before the break, but I've thought that break
- 44:33Speaker 2: might disrupt their momentum. And Minnesota came out and beat
- 44:36Speaker 2: Colorado on the road. Anyway, that's a monster win man
- 44:40Speaker 2: for Minnesota, and I think Minnesota might be in a
- 44:43Speaker 2: pretty major letdown spot here. And the game wasn't exactly
- 44:47Speaker 2: what it looked like. They had two empty net goals
- 44:50Speaker 2: late in the game. Colorado actually outshot them out face
- 44:55Speaker 2: off them with sixty five point two percent of the
- 44:58Speaker 2: face offs going Colorado's way, and the hits were even
- 45:02Speaker 2: Colorado with eleven more shots, although some of that was
- 45:04Speaker 2: because they were behind, but statistically, this game, the final
- 45:09Speaker 2: score is completely misleading. Basically, if you look at what
- 45:12Speaker 2: that game was statistically, Minnesota did not win that game.
- 45:17Speaker 1: You know, by a lot statistically.
- 45:19Speaker 2: In fact, I think they lost the game statistically, So
- 45:22Speaker 2: the game was not what it appeared to be. So
- 45:25Speaker 2: I think Minnesota is gonna be in a letdown spot
- 45:27Speaker 2: having to play a second straight night in elevation coming
- 45:30Speaker 2: up that monster win.
- 45:32Speaker 1: And Minnesota used Gustafson.
- 45:34Speaker 2: Last night, so I told you I would talk about
- 45:35Speaker 2: the goalies here. They will use Wallstet in net here,
- 45:39Speaker 2: and I believe they're two and three in Wallstet's last
- 45:42Speaker 2: five games, so that's not exactly the greatest for them.
- 45:45Speaker 2: Gustafson is their better goalie, so they will be using
- 45:49Speaker 2: their lesser goalie tonight loheras Utah is staying at home. Yes,
- 45:55Speaker 2: they did just play Colorado as well, but they lost
- 45:58Speaker 2: at home and that was on Wednesday, so Utah has
- 46:03Speaker 2: a day off. And I think they're gonna be using
- 46:05Speaker 2: Vamilka in net again man because he's their better goalie,
- 46:08Speaker 2: even though he played against Colorado on Wednesday. I think
- 46:11Speaker 2: that's a good thing because remember they were coming out
- 46:12Speaker 2: of the Olympic break. So I think it's better for
- 46:16Speaker 2: them if they use Vameilka again here.
- 46:18Speaker 1: Right, because he won't be rusty. So that's the other thing.
- 46:23Speaker 2: Uh, If Vameilka is in NET, it looks like I
- 46:25Speaker 2: think he's is slated to be in NET because he
- 46:27Speaker 2: usually plays a bunch of games in a row.
- 46:30Speaker 1: You want him after he has a game under his belt,
- 46:33Speaker 1: you know.
- 46:33Speaker 2: So I think that's a big advantage to Utah tonight
- 46:36Speaker 2: if they have Vameilka having a game under his belt
- 46:39Speaker 2: already since the break. Now he's used to it, he's
- 46:42Speaker 2: back in rhythm again. Whereas from Minnesota, that's not gonna
- 46:44Speaker 2: be the case because Wallstet hasn't played since well before
- 46:47Speaker 2: the break. So you're gonna you're gonna get a potentially
- 46:50Speaker 2: rusty goalie from Minnesota. They're gonna be on a back
- 46:53Speaker 2: to back off a monster game. Utah is staying at home.
- 46:57Speaker 2: They lost to Colorado, Like I said, even though yes,
- 46:59Speaker 2: that was a big game, but this game wasn't really close.
- 47:03Speaker 2: I mean they were down three to one in the
- 47:05Speaker 2: third period. Yeah, they cut it to three two, I guess,
- 47:08Speaker 2: so yeah, you know, I guess you could make the
- 47:10Speaker 2: argument they played fairly close there. But one thing that
- 47:12Speaker 2: I do like to see is that Utah actually outplayed
- 47:15Speaker 2: Colorado in the game. So if you look at the
- 47:17Speaker 2: box scores, Minnesota got outplayed by Colorado even though they won.
- 47:22Speaker 1: Utah outplayed Colorado and lost. I mean, look at this.
- 47:24Speaker 2: They had more shots, although yeah that was because they
- 47:26Speaker 2: were behind. They won almost sixty one percent of the
- 47:29Speaker 2: faceoffs in the game, and Colorado just wasn't even physical
- 47:33Speaker 2: in the game. Utah out physicaled them, had ten more
- 47:36Speaker 2: hits in the game, almost double the amount of hits.
- 47:39Speaker 2: So very very interesting. But yes, we're gonna take Utah
- 47:43Speaker 2: for all those reasons, man. And again, the public is
- 47:46Speaker 2: not gonna want to play Utah as a favorite here.
- 47:48Speaker 2: They're gonna think why am I getting, Like, how is
- 47:50Speaker 2: it so easy that I'm getting the quote unquote.
- 47:54Speaker 1: Better team as an underdog here? Right? But we're not
- 47:56Speaker 1: gonna fallow into that.
- 47:58Speaker 2: We have fifty five percent of tickets on minnesot out
- 48:00Speaker 2: of fifty percent of the cash on Utah, where it
- 48:02Speaker 2: mightus won thirty five here, Utah will be the play
- 48:05Speaker 2: money line.
- 48:07Speaker 1: Zach, what's up?
- 48:08Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out the Royals. Are they playing in
- 48:12Speaker 2: spring training.
- 48:13Speaker 1: I don't know.
- 48:14Speaker 2: Queens isn't playing though, and then we have Winnipeg and Anaheim.
- 48:20Speaker 2: Now Winnipeg, as I talked about, Hellabook of course, is
- 48:25Speaker 2: their goalie, and he was the goalie in the gold
- 48:28Speaker 2: medal game for the US. He had a great game,
- 48:30Speaker 2: so he could be potentially in a personal letdown spot
- 48:33Speaker 2: and this will be his first time playing since then
- 48:36Speaker 2: because Winnipeg did not use him in their first game
- 48:38Speaker 2: out of the break then won anyway against Vancouver Roll
- 48:41Speaker 2: that was a very close call.
- 48:43Speaker 1: They had Comray in that, so now it will be Hellabuk.
- 48:46Speaker 2: So the spot I think in this game actually does
- 48:50Speaker 2: look okay for Winnipeg because they're coming out of a
- 48:52Speaker 2: bad game against probably the worst team in the NHL, Vancouver.
- 48:56Speaker 2: They barely got by them, so that should focus Winnipeg here,
- 49:00Speaker 2: although they are having to travel down to Anaheim. But
- 49:02Speaker 2: I worry about Hello book man, what he's gonna look
- 49:04Speaker 2: like coming off that gold medal game, you know.
- 49:06Speaker 1: So I think that is a concern for Anaheim.
- 49:09Speaker 2: I don't like the spot that they're in really though,
- 49:12Speaker 2: as they just beat Edmonton coming out of the break,
- 49:15Speaker 2: you know, comeback, they were down four to two in
- 49:17Speaker 2: the third period, and they came back in one six
- 49:20Speaker 2: to five. That was a monster win for Anaheim there,
- 49:24Speaker 2: so I think they could be in a letdown spot
- 49:26Speaker 2: here coming off of that game with Unfortunately they don't
- 49:29Speaker 2: have Colorado next.
- 49:30Speaker 1: They have Calgary next.
- 49:32Speaker 2: Because if they had Colorado next, I would be considering
- 49:35Speaker 2: Winnipeg a little bit more strongly because it would be
- 49:37Speaker 2: a sandwich spot, and I know Minnesota is not in
- 49:40Speaker 2: a sandwich spot, but still I like the Utah side
- 49:43Speaker 2: there in Minnesota. By the way, I didn't mention who
- 49:45Speaker 2: they're playing next, It's only Saint Louis, But even so.
- 49:51Speaker 1: I still like the Utah spot there. This one I'm gonna.
- 49:53Speaker 2: Stay away from because there's some conflicting factors here. I
- 49:57Speaker 2: do lean to Winnipeg in this game slightly. Anaheim's the
- 50:00Speaker 2: minus one twenty five favorite, ninety percent of the tickets
- 50:03Speaker 2: and ninety eight percent of the cash on them. I
- 50:05Speaker 2: think the public will kind of want Anaheim here. They
- 50:08Speaker 2: are good home teams, so you don't usually want to
- 50:10Speaker 2: fade them at home. Winnipeg is not very good on
- 50:12Speaker 2: the road. The public is gonna want Anaheim in general,
- 50:16Speaker 2: just because their record is way better, but the oddsmakers
- 50:19Speaker 2: are kind of telling you that Anaheim is not that
- 50:20Speaker 2: much better than Winnipeg. So I think it all kind
- 50:24Speaker 2: of comes down to what hell book is gonna be
- 50:26Speaker 2: like coming off the gold medal game, you know, But
- 50:29Speaker 2: maybe it's a somewhat of a good thing because it
- 50:31Speaker 2: means you won't be rusty, you know what I mean.
- 50:35Speaker 2: So I don't know, we'll see, but it could still
- 50:37Speaker 2: be a personal let down spot for him. But if
- 50:40Speaker 2: we were just looking at the scheduling spot, I think
- 50:42Speaker 2: it does land in favor of Winnipeg, all right. And
- 50:46Speaker 2: then we got some NBA five NBA games tonight there's
- 50:50Speaker 2: an ESPN doubleheader where both games are actually good ish.
- 50:55Speaker 1: Cleveland at Detroit is the first game up.
- 50:57Speaker 2: This is a big game, man, it'll be a potential
- 51:00Speaker 2: Eastern Conference playoff preview of a sort.
- 51:03Speaker 1: Here.
- 51:04Speaker 2: Cleveland is coming off losing to Milwaukee. That was a
- 51:07Speaker 2: bad loss to them. And I gave you, guys, Milwaukee
- 51:10Speaker 2: in that game, and I gave it to you in
- 51:12Speaker 2: the morning at plus nine, and it was at two
- 51:14Speaker 2: and a half when the game went off because Cleveland
- 51:17Speaker 2: rested all their players because I think they were focusing
- 51:19Speaker 2: ahead on this game. So I think that tells you
- 51:22Speaker 2: that Cleveland they pretty much just threw that game against Milwaukee,
- 51:26Speaker 2: like they basically just they passed on the game because
- 51:30Speaker 2: you know, this is what happens in the NBA. It's
- 51:32Speaker 2: the Greg Popovich. They popoviched it and they rested their players.
- 51:38Speaker 1: But I also think because they lost to.
- 51:39Speaker 2: A bad Bucks team that they're probably gonna be in
- 51:42Speaker 2: a bounce back mode too. So I do like Cleveland
- 51:44Speaker 2: in this one. You're gonna get a full effort out
- 51:46Speaker 2: of them here. That's why they rested their guys. Although
- 51:49Speaker 2: Donovan Mitchell is listed as being out, but I don't
- 51:52Speaker 2: really think. Actually, I guess he's not playing, my mistake,
- 51:55Speaker 2: So Mitchell, I guess, is actually legitimately injured. I thought
- 51:58Speaker 2: these guys just rested, But that's I guess. I'm going
- 52:00Speaker 2: to keep in mind that Mitchell is not playing in
- 52:02Speaker 2: this game, which I guess kind of explains why Detroit
- 52:05Speaker 2: is as big as as big of a favorite as
- 52:08Speaker 2: they are here. So Mitchell is gonna be out, So
- 52:10Speaker 2: that is one thing I guess to be concerned with
- 52:13Speaker 2: for Cleveland. But the rest of their guys, like James
- 52:16Speaker 2: Hard and I expect him to play. And then for Detroit,
- 52:19Speaker 2: they have pretty much a full roster except Stewart is
- 52:22Speaker 2: still suspended from the brawl against Charlotte. But for Detroit,
- 52:29Speaker 2: Detroit's coming off a win over Oklahoma City. Man, So
- 52:32Speaker 2: I think Detroit is in the worst spot here. You know,
- 52:37Speaker 2: they kind of went all out in that game to
- 52:38Speaker 2: beat Oklahoma City the other night that they are staying
- 52:41Speaker 2: at home, but they've had a rough schedule out of
- 52:43Speaker 2: the break, Man, After they had they had one easy
- 52:46Speaker 2: game against Chicago, but look at the rest of their
- 52:49Speaker 2: games out of the break. They already had to play
- 52:51Speaker 2: the Nick San Antonio Thunder and Cleveland. Now very very
- 52:55Speaker 2: difficult schedule for Detroit here, man, and I think it
- 52:58Speaker 2: might catch up to them a little bit. I actually
- 53:00Speaker 2: lean Cleveland in this game. Pistons are down from seven
- 53:03Speaker 2: to six here, fifty nine percent of the tickets, sixty
- 53:05Speaker 2: three percent.
- 53:05Speaker 1: Of the cash.
- 53:06Speaker 2: I know it's no Mitchell, and I know Mitchell missed
- 53:08Speaker 2: the last game two with Cleveland, which I guess you
- 53:12Speaker 2: could have debated that was the injured player theory spot.
- 53:14Speaker 2: But I think the Calves are gonna give you a
- 53:16Speaker 2: huge effort in this one. They're coming off the loss.
- 53:19Speaker 2: They rested their other guys.
- 53:20Speaker 1: In that game. It was a bad loss.
- 53:22Speaker 2: The Pistons are coming up a big performance and having
- 53:24Speaker 2: to put it in another effort like that and duplicate
- 53:27Speaker 2: that and cover a large number here. Yeah, I'm gonna
- 53:30Speaker 2: lean to the Calves in that one. You know, it
- 53:34Speaker 2: wouldn't even shock me if they won the game outright,
- 53:36Speaker 2: to be honest, even without Mitchell in that one, it's
- 53:39Speaker 2: a pretty good Calves team still. So those are my
- 53:43Speaker 2: thoughts on that game. And the Calves probably are gonna
- 53:46Speaker 2: step up their effort, you know, because it's a big
- 53:48Speaker 2: game gets Detroit and they probably know they have.
- 53:50Speaker 1: To put it in.
- 53:50Speaker 2: Might the injured player spot might actually happen in this game.
- 53:54Speaker 2: Next up is my best bet, and I'm gonna hope
- 53:58Speaker 2: that my gauge is a little bit better than it
- 54:00Speaker 2: was on the Celtics the last time I tried to
- 54:02Speaker 2: fade them against Phoenix and the Celtics still turned it
- 54:06Speaker 2: around and won the game. But we're gonna fade the
- 54:08Speaker 2: Celtics here and I think it's a bad spot for
- 54:11Speaker 2: the Celtics. We're gonna take the Brooklyn Nets and hopefully
- 54:14Speaker 2: the Nets whispering will continue here. The Nets are eighteen
- 54:18Speaker 2: point underdogs here. Now, first of all, these two teams
- 54:23Speaker 2: have already played three times this year. And you want
- 54:25Speaker 2: to take a guess how many of those games the
- 54:27Speaker 2: Celtics won by eighteen or more.
- 54:31Speaker 1: The answer is zero.
- 54:32Speaker 2: The Celtics are zero and three at covering this number
- 54:36Speaker 2: against Brooklyn this year. And I believe the Celtics are
- 54:40Speaker 2: one and two against the spread in those games. And
- 54:43Speaker 2: what the spreads were in those games? They had one
- 54:45Speaker 2: fourteen point win at Brooklyn.
- 54:48Speaker 1: I believe.
- 54:51Speaker 2: They had actually, let me look real quick, I know
- 54:53Speaker 2: the Celtics the last time they played. I know it
- 54:56Speaker 2: was a double overtime game where they almost lost and
- 54:59Speaker 2: Brooklyn actually beat them the other time. Yeah, So the
- 55:03Speaker 2: Celtics won at Brooklyn by fourteen. Then there was a
- 55:07Speaker 2: zig zag spot right after that, and the Celtics lost
- 55:10Speaker 2: at home by eight. Then at Brooklyn later on in January.
- 55:16Speaker 2: You know, spot, that wasn't even really bad for the Celtics.
- 55:18Speaker 2: Brooklyn took them to double overtime, really really crazy, man.
- 55:23Speaker 2: So Brooklyn has played well against the Celtics. You know,
- 55:27Speaker 2: they haven't lost by more than fourteen in any game,
- 55:29Speaker 2: and in fact, in the two games that they didn't
- 55:32Speaker 2: lose by double digits, one of the games went to
- 55:34Speaker 2: double overtime and Brooklyn won the other game. So Brooklyn
- 55:38Speaker 2: has played well against them. The Celtics are in a
- 55:41Speaker 2: bad spot. They're returning over a road trip. They've been
- 55:44Speaker 2: on the road since coming out of the All Star Break,
- 55:46Speaker 2: and they had to go to the Pacific Coast. They
- 55:48Speaker 2: won three games on the road trip. They had to
- 55:50Speaker 2: go into Arizona. They won that game, even though I
- 55:53Speaker 2: thought it was a bad spot. Then they lost to
- 55:55Speaker 2: Denver in their last game, and I know they lost
- 55:57Speaker 2: badly in the end of it by nineteen, but I
- 55:59Speaker 2: don't see this as a bounce back spot.
- 56:01Speaker 1: Man, it's a return home spot.
- 56:03Speaker 2: They're playing a fourth game in six days, all in
- 56:05Speaker 2: different cities, all across different time zones, one of them
- 56:09Speaker 2: in elevation. This is a really bad spot for the Celtics.
- 56:12Speaker 1: Tune.
- 56:13Speaker 2: You know, I talked about just in general, the return
- 56:15Speaker 2: home spot. When you've been gone for more than a week,
- 56:17Speaker 2: it's bad. You have to get back to home life.
- 56:19Speaker 2: You might not be paying attention. Even though I know
- 56:21Speaker 2: Brooklyn has been competitive against them this year, It's like,
- 56:24Speaker 2: do you really pay that much attention to the Brooklyn Nets?
- 56:27Speaker 2: Even still, I don't think so. So this is a
- 56:30Speaker 2: really bad spot for the Celtics. June the home distractions
- 56:34Speaker 2: coming into play, and on Sunday they got an NBC
- 56:37Speaker 2: in Peacock game against the seventy six or so that is.
- 56:40Speaker 1: A bigger game for the Celtics than this one is.
- 56:43Speaker 2: So you know, there is an argument to me made
- 56:46Speaker 2: that it's a little bit of a sandwich spot here too.
- 56:48Speaker 1: So I do not like the spot at all for
- 56:50Speaker 1: the Celtics.
- 56:51Speaker 2: Brooklyn was just in New York, so their travel spot
- 56:54Speaker 2: is a lot better. They're just going from New York
- 56:56Speaker 2: to Boston. They should show up for a game against
- 56:59Speaker 2: the Seltics. Plus Brooklyn's lost six games in a row now,
- 57:03Speaker 2: but if you look at what they've done in their
- 57:05Speaker 2: last few games, they look like they are still giving
- 57:07Speaker 2: you an effort here, as they had an eleven point
- 57:10Speaker 2: loss at Atlanta, a nine point loss at Only against Dallas.
- 57:14Speaker 2: They did lose by sixteen to San Antonio. But they're
- 57:16Speaker 2: not getting absolutely erased in most of these games. So
- 57:19Speaker 2: it looks like Brooklyn is trying. And I think this
- 57:22Speaker 2: is the type of game where they will get up
- 57:23Speaker 2: for it. I know they're on a back to back,
- 57:26Speaker 2: so that's one concern here. They are actually playing a
- 57:30Speaker 2: let me see what this is a fourth game in
- 57:31Speaker 2: six days.
- 57:32Speaker 1: Just like the Celtics are.
- 57:33Speaker 2: But the two middle ones were in New York and
- 57:35Speaker 2: this one is in Boston, so Brooklyn is not having
- 57:38Speaker 2: to travel that much over these last few games. Yes,
- 57:42Speaker 2: I know it's a back to back, but I think
- 57:43Speaker 2: we're getting extra value on Brooklyn because it is a
- 57:46Speaker 2: back to back here. Normally I'm not going to play
- 57:48Speaker 2: the back to backstentaria, but I'm gonna do it here.
- 57:51Speaker 2: Celtics are eighteen seventeen and a half. Whatever the number is.
- 57:55Speaker 2: Hopefully it doesn't matter. It's a big number. Sixty nine
- 57:57Speaker 2: percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash on
- 57:59Speaker 2: the Celtics. I do not agree with that cash percentage there.
- 58:03Speaker 2: We're gonna fade the Celtics, man bad spot. The only
- 58:07Speaker 2: caveat is the Brooklyn's on a back to back. And yes,
- 58:11Speaker 2: because they are multiple games removed from the break now,
- 58:13Speaker 2: it is definitely a true back to back here. But still,
- 58:18Speaker 2: you know, I expect an effort out of them and
- 58:20Speaker 2: it's a horrible spot for the Celtics.
- 58:24Speaker 1: Knicks at Milwaukee.
- 58:26Speaker 2: The Knicks are coming off of a loss to Cleveland by
- 58:29Speaker 2: double digits, They've had a couple of days off.
- 58:31Speaker 1: I think the Knicks probably will show up here, even
- 58:34Speaker 1: though they.
- 58:34Speaker 2: Do San Antonio on ABC next on Sunday. That's a
- 58:38Speaker 2: big game for them. But the Knicks, Yeah, they're coming
- 58:40Speaker 2: off a big game against Cleveland, but with multiple days
- 58:43Speaker 2: off after that and that being a double digit loss,
- 58:46Speaker 2: I think they'll give you an effort.
- 58:47Speaker 1: And they probably see.
- 58:48Speaker 2: That Milwaukee has been playing really competitive recently and Milwaukee
- 58:52Speaker 2: just pulled off that upset against Cleveland after pulling off
- 58:55Speaker 2: an upset against Miami. So yeah, the one good thing
- 58:59Speaker 2: about Milwaukee is they're playing hard. They're giving you an effort.
- 59:01Speaker 2: Even without Yiannis. They're not going away Milwaukee. Uh Like
- 59:06Speaker 2: there's actually a chance they get into the play in
- 59:09Speaker 2: round of the playoffs still.
- 59:11Speaker 1: So yeah, Milwaukee does look.
- 59:12Speaker 2: Like they're gonna give you an effort here, But in
- 59:14Speaker 2: this game, it's gonna be really difficult for them to
- 59:18Speaker 2: try to pull off three straight upsets in a row.
- 59:20Speaker 1: Man here.
- 59:22Speaker 2: Knicks with extra rest here and coming off a kind
- 59:24Speaker 2: of an ugly loss. I think I would have to
- 59:26Speaker 2: lay it with the Knicks if I was gonna play
- 59:28Speaker 2: this game. I'm not gonna do it. But sixty six
- 59:30Speaker 2: percent of tickets, seventy two percent of the cash on
- 59:32Speaker 2: the Knicks, they're up from eight to eight and a half.
- 59:34Speaker 2: That would be the way I would lean in that game,
- 59:40Speaker 2: just based on, you know, the scheduling dynamics of it.
- 59:42Speaker 2: But Milwaukee has been impressive. But maybe the Knicks kind
- 59:45Speaker 2: of noticed that. It's the Oh this Milwaukee team. They're
- 59:48Speaker 2: playing tough, so we have to take them seriously. Memphis
- 59:51Speaker 2: at Dallas is not not a great one. Memphis, of course,
- 59:55Speaker 2: is playing basically with a mash unit. They lost to Sacramento,
- 59:59Speaker 2: which is really and then they lost a Golden State
- 1:00:02Speaker 2: following that up. But maybe from Memphis is good to
- 1:00:04Speaker 2: just forget about that, just go on the road, leave home.
- 1:00:07Speaker 2: You're not playing well, you know, just go focus on basketball.
- 1:00:12Speaker 2: Maybe you gotta worry about.
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: Memphis tanking at this point.
- 1:00:15Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I don't think you have to worry
- 1:00:16Speaker 2: about tanking as far as like the players on the
- 1:00:18Speaker 2: court not giving you an effort, though, I think it's
- 1:00:21Speaker 2: just that Memphis just doesn't have anybody in their lineup
- 1:00:24Speaker 2: at this point, like everybody's been shut down. So that's
- 1:00:26Speaker 2: kind of the tanking that exists in the NBA. Dallas,
- 1:00:30Speaker 2: by the way, they just lost the Sacramento too last night,
- 1:00:33Speaker 2: so Sacramento is on a little two game wins streak.
- 1:00:36Speaker 2: I think there that's a pretty bad loss, and Dallas
- 1:00:40Speaker 2: was returning home from a road trip. It was almost
- 1:00:42Speaker 2: a week long road trip. Not exactly the greatest spot
- 1:00:45Speaker 2: for Dallas there. I think I did lean to the
- 1:00:47Speaker 2: Kings in that one. Dallas does have OKAC on deck,
- 1:00:51Speaker 2: so maybe they're looking ahead to that.
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: They aren't a back to back here.
- 1:00:56Speaker 2: Both teams might show up because they're both off ugly losses.
- 1:00:59Speaker 2: The money is coming in on the Grizzlies, and I
- 1:01:01Speaker 2: don't really disagree with it. I think I probably would
- 1:01:04Speaker 2: agree with that MAV's down from five and a half
- 1:01:06Speaker 2: to four and a half. You're fifty two tickets in
- 1:01:08Speaker 2: ninety nine percent of the cash on the Grizzlies. I'll
- 1:01:11Speaker 2: agree with the Grizzlies in that one, but not a
- 1:01:14Speaker 2: strong opinion. And then the second ESPN game is Denver
- 1:01:17Speaker 2: at Oklahoma City. I believe this is still gonna be
- 1:01:21Speaker 2: Oklahoma City without SGA or is he back?
- 1:01:23Speaker 1: Now? Let me say.
- 1:01:26Speaker 2: That is definitely something to know. Aaron Gordon is still out.
- 1:01:29Speaker 2: He's slated to come back on March first. For Denver.
- 1:01:33Speaker 2: Jamal Murray is a game time decision. I think he'll
- 1:01:37Speaker 2: suit up if he can. He I guess tried against
- 1:01:40Speaker 2: the Celtics, but he left after eight minutes, so I
- 1:01:42Speaker 2: don't know what's going on, So we'll see if he
- 1:01:44Speaker 2: actually plays. This is a big game, so I think
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: he's gonna try to play at the very least. Jalen
- 1:01:50Speaker 2: Williams is still out for Oklahoma City, but it does
- 1:01:52Speaker 2: look like SGA is back. Now I gotta see if
- 1:01:55Speaker 2: he played in the last game or not, because sometimes
- 1:01:57Speaker 2: I just don't even notice.
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: He did not. So this is SGA's first game back.
- 1:02:03Speaker 2: Now that is a problem for Oklahoma City because you know,
- 1:02:07Speaker 2: I'm gonna talk about it the reverse injured player spot
- 1:02:10Speaker 2: when you're a star player and we're talking about possibly
- 1:02:13Speaker 2: the MVP of the league SGA. Even though I know
- 1:02:15Speaker 2: Oklahoma City is so deep that they win games anyway
- 1:02:18Speaker 2: without him, but I should have known him based on
- 1:02:21Speaker 2: the line, the fact that they're eight and a half
- 1:02:22Speaker 2: at home against a really good team like Denver. With
- 1:02:25Speaker 2: Jokic playing, you gotta think, yeah, that does tell you
- 1:02:27Speaker 2: that SGA is back here, but anyway Oklahoma City yet
- 1:02:34Speaker 2: they're like used to playing without SGA.
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: Now he's been out for almost a month.
- 1:02:38Speaker 2: And when you're star player, MVP caliber player has been
- 1:02:41Speaker 2: out for a month, and now he comes back, he
- 1:02:44Speaker 2: might he might not be totally one hundred percent yet,
- 1:02:46Speaker 2: you know, he's not used to being out there. You know,
- 1:02:48Speaker 2: in an actual game, you have to readjust to what
- 1:02:51Speaker 2: your roles are with him out there on the court.
- 1:02:53Speaker 2: So sometimes you don't like gel right away. So this
- 1:02:55Speaker 2: is a reverse injured player spot for Oklahoma City here,
- 1:02:59Speaker 2: So I think that is a and you might get
- 1:03:01Speaker 2: a little bit of value in fading them because the line.
- 1:03:03Speaker 1: Has to shift towards Oklahoma City. That's how it works.
- 1:03:07Speaker 2: Denver is coming up a pretty big win over Boston
- 1:03:11Speaker 2: going out on the road here. They're not going to
- 1:03:12Speaker 2: overlook Oklahoma City though, obviously, and Denver had two days
- 1:03:16Speaker 2: off prior to the Celtic game and then they were
- 1:03:19Speaker 2: traveling prior to that.
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: But they're not like a totally unrested team here for OKC.
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: They did just lose that Detroit.
- 1:03:27Speaker 2: They're playing a third game in four and a's though
- 1:03:29Speaker 2: all in different cities, in a fourth game in six
- 1:03:31Speaker 2: days with travel between all the games, and they did
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: just have a big game against Detroit, close game that
- 1:03:37Speaker 2: they lost. So you know, it's not really the greatest
- 1:03:40Speaker 2: spot for okase the money's coming in an Okay see,
- 1:03:44Speaker 2: but I actually disagree with that. I would probably lean
- 1:03:46Speaker 2: towards taking the points with the Nuggets. It's fifty to
- 1:03:49Speaker 2: fifty on the tickets and seventy seven percent of the
- 1:03:51Speaker 2: cash on the Thunder. I know the Thunder are really
- 1:03:54Speaker 2: good at home uh and tough to fade at home,
- 1:03:57Speaker 2: but the reverse injured players about I think really does
- 1:04:00Speaker 2: kind of loom large in that game with SGA coming back,
- 1:04:03Speaker 2: But that.
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: Doesn't mean it'll be It'll be good for ESPN.
- 1:04:05Speaker 2: And for the viewership because you'll get an actual Jokic
- 1:04:09Speaker 2: SGA matchup in that one, any potential playoff preview in
- 1:04:12Speaker 2: that game. So those are my thoughts on it, but
- 1:04:16Speaker 2: I do lean to the Nuggets plus the points.
- 1:04:18Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Man.
- 1:04:19Speaker 2: So my place today are college basketball George Washington minus
- 1:04:23Speaker 2: a three and a half hockey we're back in the
- 1:04:26Speaker 2: hockey action now with the Utah Mammoth on the money line,
- 1:04:30Speaker 2: and then we're taking the Brooklyn Nets plus.
- 1:04:32Speaker 1: A ton of points in the NBA.
- 1:04:34Speaker 2: The other thing that helps that out, by the way,
- 1:04:36Speaker 2: is the Celtics are a half court style team, the Celtics.
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: I know pacing doesn't matter as much.
- 1:04:41Speaker 2: In the NBA as it does in college, like you
- 1:04:44Speaker 2: have less extremes in the NBA, or fewer extremes or
- 1:04:47Speaker 2: the pacing mismatches are less extreme. But if you want
- 1:04:50Speaker 2: to talk about it, the Celtics are the slowest paced
- 1:04:53Speaker 2: team in the NBA.
- 1:04:54Speaker 1: So there is that to consider.
- 1:04:56Speaker 2: Even though I know the Celtics have their fair share
- 1:04:58Speaker 2: of blow out wins of course because they are really good.
- 1:05:01Speaker 2: But it looks like a spot where you're not gonna
- 1:05:03Speaker 2: get the best effort out of the Celtics. So that's
- 1:05:05Speaker 2: gonna do it. Learn a toad on Twitter. You can
- 1:05:08Speaker 2: subscribe to me there and that helps me out. Man
- 1:05:11Speaker 2: with the support Instagram. Learn a toad there as well.
- 1:05:14Speaker 2: I put out the short form content there like it.
- 1:05:17Speaker 2: Subscribe to the channel here, man, tell everybody, tell your
- 1:05:20Speaker 2: friends like Garrett and his guys here. Yeah, bring some
- 1:05:23Speaker 2: more people over, man, so that I can yell at
- 1:05:26Speaker 2: them in the comments section. Yell at the people that
- 1:05:29Speaker 2: are in the comments section. Yeah, let's boost this thing up.
- 1:05:34Speaker 1: Man. We're on audio as well, Apple Spotify. Check that out.
- 1:05:37Speaker 2: Give me a good review there, listen that helps me out.
- 1:05:40Speaker 2: Covered in Yuke is my Yuke channel on YouTube. You
- 1:05:43Speaker 2: can check that out. I did upload my most recent
- 1:05:45Speaker 2: cover there. Patreon dot com slash learn to toad. You
- 1:05:48Speaker 2: can throw me some support there. There's a Patreon feed
- 1:05:52Speaker 2: for the Yuke stuff there as well that is updated
- 1:05:55Speaker 2: except for the last cover that I just put up
- 1:05:57Speaker 2: on YouTube, so I'm gonna keep that up today. I
- 1:05:59Speaker 2: do requests there as well, though it's taking me a
- 1:06:02Speaker 2: while to do it.
- 1:06:03Speaker 1: And then Loser Cast, of course, how could I forget.
- 1:06:08Speaker 2: The you know, the new comedy podcast that I'm on
- 1:06:12Speaker 2: every Tuesday night at ten pm Eastern. That's gonna do it, man.
- 1:06:16Speaker 2: I'll figure out what I want to do with Saturday.
- 1:06:18Speaker 2: I think the Saturday card is gonna start shrinking a
- 1:06:20Speaker 2: little bit because some of these conferences are finishing. So, like,
- 1:06:24Speaker 2: I think the Matt Act might not have any action
- 1:06:27Speaker 2: on Saturday anymore. So that'll shrink the board a little
- 1:06:29Speaker 2: bit on Saturday, but still gonna be a huge board
- 1:06:32Speaker 2: to have to deal with us. So we're gonna talk
- 1:06:34Speaker 2: about that. I don't know if I'm gonna do that
- 1:06:35Speaker 2: show tonight or in the morning, but we'll figure it out.
- 1:06:38Speaker 2: That's gonna do it for now, guys. I appreciate it. Everybody,
- 1:06:41Speaker 2: have a good one. Let's get some winds tonight. Back
- 1:06:44Speaker 2: in action with the NHL. Finally feels good. Mark Clair,
- 1:06:47Speaker 2: if you're out there, here's your first hockey play for me,
- 1:06:50Speaker 2: you know.
- 1:06:51Speaker 1: Of the.
- 1:06:53Speaker 2: Rest of the season. Let's say that's gonna do it. Peace, guys,