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NFL Combine with Matthew Freedman · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: the Tennessee Redline one eight nine or visit one eight
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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites
1:19
Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Nowman,
1:23
Speaker 1: chief Content officer of the Action Network. Big NFL Show Today.
1:28
Speaker 1: You say, how can it be a Big NFL show
1:31
Speaker 1: where three weeks past the Super Bowl but Combine is
1:35
Speaker 1: coming up Aaron Rodgers speculation has us all on high alert.
1:41
Speaker 1: I am going to be joined by the one that
1:43
Speaker 1: got Away. In addition to Simon Hunter Professional Better, my bff,
1:47
Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre still on his world tour
1:50
Speaker 1: of God Knows where, Matthew Freedman, chief Strategists at f
1:55
Speaker 1: t N, former Action Network analyst Draft Genius, the man
2:03
Speaker 1: who originated the draft coverage for the Action Network, is
2:06
Speaker 1: joining us on the podcast today. Simon, how excited are
2:09
Speaker 1: we do to see Freedman? I'm so excited, Chad. And
2:13
Speaker 1: I didn't realize that said you were to hear a
2:14
Speaker 1: story about a fan of yours in Cuba. I don't
2:17
Speaker 1: know what you're talking about. I would never twist your
2:19
Speaker 1: arm to tell people in public a story about when
2:21
Speaker 1: someone recognized me from another country. No, you would not.
2:25
Speaker 1: Someone named Chad would not do something like that way.
2:30
Speaker 1: But yes, Chad, the rumors are true. We have fans
2:33
Speaker 1: in the Middle East, we have fans all over the world.
2:35
Speaker 1: We even have a fan in Cuba, which people wouldn't
2:38
Speaker 1: believe it. They use satellites to get internet and like
2:41
Speaker 1: get music, podcasts, everything you can think of from America.
2:45
Speaker 1: Hearing a Cuban person talking about liking Chad and how
2:48
Speaker 1: they went out of their way through smuggle a book
2:50
Speaker 1: from America that Chad wrote so they could read some
2:53
Speaker 1: of your writing, Chad was truly alarming. Chad Millman wrote
2:57
Speaker 1: a book which fun fact, people doesn't know Cuba has
3:01
Speaker 1: the most literate country in the entire world. Like it
3:05
Speaker 1: was shocking hearing and Cuban talking about his love for Chad,
3:08
Speaker 1: his writing and his gab, his gambling knowledge. There's a
3:11
Speaker 1: lot to take in. Chad doesn't sound shocking to me
3:14
Speaker 1: at all. Simon, I'm surprised you would tell that story
3:17
Speaker 1: that comes out of nowhere. To me, I'm so glad
3:20
Speaker 1: you would spontaneously share that. We're definitely not going to
3:23
Speaker 1: clip this and put it on YouTube. There's no way
3:27
Speaker 1: we would do something that shameless, and I probably won't
3:30
Speaker 1: text it to everyone in my family. I feel like
3:32
Speaker 1: Freedman should be disappointed that he decided to ditch the
3:36
Speaker 1: Action Network, where he could have been working with someone
3:38
Speaker 1: who's known worldwide. I don't know how many people at
3:41
Speaker 1: f t N Freedman are known have fans in Cuba.
3:44
Speaker 1: First of all, I just want to say I previously
3:46
Speaker 1: thought that all Millman books should be banned. Uh Now
3:50
Speaker 1: I no longer think that. You've given that they are
3:52
Speaker 1: spreading the good news in Cuba chat. Thank you for
3:55
Speaker 1: the wonderful introduction, Although I want to say I'm not
3:58
Speaker 1: just the chief strategy officer a f IN. By the way,
4:00
Speaker 1: great title sounds impressive, but no one knows what it means,
4:03
Speaker 1: so they don't expect anything from me. But not just
4:06
Speaker 1: the chief strategist at ft IN, I'm also the former
4:09
Speaker 1: one time fill in host of the favorite podcast. While
4:12
Speaker 1: you were off last summer gallivanting around the country, Simon,
4:16
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and I were holding down the Fort and
4:18
Speaker 1: it was probably the greatest episode the show has ever had.
4:21
Speaker 1: Simon won't say that because I imagine he still has
4:23
Speaker 1: a performance review coming up, but he knows he knows
4:26
Speaker 1: it's true. Also, Simon, great job on the Sunday Morning
4:29
Speaker 1: Live Show this year, a real upgrade on the Bozo
4:32
Speaker 1: Who's that Chair Flash year. I mean, the show is
4:36
Speaker 1: obviously great, but one thing the show is missing, missing
4:38
Speaker 1: the nemesis, the donkey everyman who can sometimes make sense
4:42
Speaker 1: out of stupidity. You need to get yourself a freedman
4:45
Speaker 1: another someone that you love to hate. And speaking of
4:48
Speaker 1: which you know, I know I'm going on the tangent now.
4:50
Speaker 1: But anyway, I had a girlfriend early in college from
4:53
Speaker 1: my hometown. I gave her a ring, not like a
4:55
Speaker 1: ring ring, but like we've been dating a while, here's
4:57
Speaker 1: a ring kind of ring. Anyway, we eventually broke up
5:00
Speaker 1: after we graduated. I was with someone else, she was
5:02
Speaker 1: with someone else, but we were both back in our
5:04
Speaker 1: hometown for the summer. So one evening we met up
5:06
Speaker 1: just to catch up, and she wore the ring. It
5:09
Speaker 1: was a nice gesture, you know, for old time's sake.
5:11
Speaker 1: And so that's what's happening here, Chad, for you, not
5:13
Speaker 1: for Simon, not for Matt Mitchell, but for you, Chad,
5:16
Speaker 1: you alone. I am wearing the Action Network hoodie because
5:20
Speaker 1: you know, we did have some good times together, and
5:22
Speaker 1: you know, I just want to say thanks for having
5:25
Speaker 1: me on the show. It's good to be back. You
5:26
Speaker 1: are a hundred percent of class. Act Fredman, I rue
5:29
Speaker 1: the day you decided to ditch us. Speaking of ditching,
5:32
Speaker 1: there's a lot of speculation about what Aaron Rodgers is
5:35
Speaker 1: gonna do. So on Tuesday, midday before he made his
5:40
Speaker 1: appearance with Pat McAfee, there was an announcement that the
5:43
Speaker 1: Packers were having a conference press conference on Wednesday with
5:45
Speaker 1: their GM. He put out a post about on Instagram
5:48
Speaker 1: about how gratefully was Um for this past season with
5:51
Speaker 1: the Packers. Um. He goes on McAfee and immediately punctures
5:56
Speaker 1: a hole in any speculation says, look, I'm not making
5:59
Speaker 1: an announced it right now. I'm still contemplating my decision.
6:03
Speaker 1: I was on a Pancha Karma cleans on which he
6:06
Speaker 1: does every offseason, for twelve days, and when he was done,
6:10
Speaker 1: it filled him with gratitude. That's why he put out
6:12
Speaker 1: the post. That's all it was about. If we're betting
6:14
Speaker 1: on this, if we are betting people, which we are,
6:19
Speaker 1: Simon already know your future is Ravens Jags Steelers Falcons,
6:23
Speaker 1: and we're trying to make a bet on where we
6:25
Speaker 1: think Aaron Rodgers will be next year. Do you think
6:28
Speaker 1: he'll be with the Packers? If not, where do you
6:30
Speaker 1: think he goes? And is there value of making that bet?
6:33
Speaker 1: I think he will likely be with the Packers, But
6:36
Speaker 1: I will say if you're of the mind that he
6:39
Speaker 1: won't be with the Packers, I think the bet is
6:41
Speaker 1: actually on the Bears. Chad, this is blatant. I'm trying
6:45
Speaker 1: to appeal to your homeraism. In fact, I would say
6:48
Speaker 1: you could take it a step further. Right now, you
6:51
Speaker 1: can find a hundred and fifty to one odds for
6:54
Speaker 1: one second year quarterback who happens to play for the
6:57
Speaker 1: Bears to be the league envy p and I actually
7:01
Speaker 1: kind of don't hate that bet on its own anyway.
7:04
Speaker 1: But if you think Aaron Rodgers is leaving the gray
7:06
Speaker 1: A Packers, then that bet all of a sudden becomes
7:09
Speaker 1: a little more intriguing. So if I had to think
7:11
Speaker 1: about Aaron Rodgers and what that might mean if he leaves,
7:15
Speaker 1: I'm actually looking at Justin Fields at a hundred and
7:18
Speaker 1: fifty one to be the NFL MVP. Simon. That's an
7:22
Speaker 1: interesting take. That's what we love, Matt. He's thinking outside
7:26
Speaker 1: the box here. That's that's a good way to look
7:27
Speaker 1: at this position where you're if you're looking to get
7:30
Speaker 1: value off there in Rodgers move, he is gonna move.
7:33
Speaker 1: Those are the kind of bet you make. I just
7:34
Speaker 1: don't believe it either. I'm I'm I'm thinking Rodgers needs
7:38
Speaker 1: to go eat mushrooms in Hawaii and walk around but
7:40
Speaker 1: naked for a couple of weeks and then he'll make
7:42
Speaker 1: a decision like he always does. So we know he's
7:44
Speaker 1: a weird guy. He's gonna do some weird stuff. So
7:47
Speaker 1: it's impossible to say. But last year what we did
7:50
Speaker 1: chat is we just faded the noise. And what we
7:52
Speaker 1: do is we wait. We wait for Rogers to become
7:56
Speaker 1: the narcissist he is. He'll talk more, He'll throw out
7:58
Speaker 1: more speculation. The Green Bay odds will keep shifting up.
8:02
Speaker 1: More people on ESPN and the Action Network will talk
8:05
Speaker 1: about Aaron Rodgers going to Denver, Aaron Rodgers going to Pittsburgh.
8:09
Speaker 1: Green Bay's odds will keep going up. And last year
8:11
Speaker 1: we got green Bay one to make the super Bowl.
8:15
Speaker 1: Obviously that was a terrible bet. They lost in the
8:17
Speaker 1: second round at home. But that's a value bet. They
8:20
Speaker 1: dropped all the way down to six to one, five
8:22
Speaker 1: to one in some books for Super Bowl at that point.
8:25
Speaker 1: So when you're trying to find value a long term,
8:28
Speaker 1: long term bet, usually the waiting games to go. So
8:30
Speaker 1: if you do believe the hype, you do think he's
8:32
Speaker 1: gonna leave, don't speculate what team he's gonna go to.
8:35
Speaker 1: Try to take Matt Freeman's approach here and just take
8:38
Speaker 1: you know, the Bears to win the division because we
8:40
Speaker 1: obviously don't believe in Minnesota. We we don't believe in Detroit.
8:44
Speaker 1: That's a good bet on a second year quarterback and
8:46
Speaker 1: fields with the with this Bears team. So I like
8:48
Speaker 1: respecting with that. I love both of those things. That's great.
8:52
Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to the Combine because that is
8:54
Speaker 1: coming up more and more. You're able to bet on
8:56
Speaker 1: the Combine more and more markets. For those who don't know,
9:00
Speaker 1: the Combine has been going on four years. I covered
9:03
Speaker 1: the Combine when I got out of college and worked
9:05
Speaker 1: at Sports Illustrated in the mid nineties. And Peter King,
9:09
Speaker 1: who is probably one of the pre eminent NFL writers
9:12
Speaker 1: in the history of covering the NFL. He couldn't go
9:15
Speaker 1: one year, and he whispered to me, he said to me,
9:17
Speaker 1: before I was going, he called me on a telephone
9:19
Speaker 1: on landline because that's all we had, and he's like, Chad,
9:24
Speaker 1: you're gonna love the Combine. You're gonna have GMS just
9:27
Speaker 1: whispering sweet nothings in your ear all week long. And
9:31
Speaker 1: I'm like, this is gonna be amazing, and it actually
9:34
Speaker 1: is great to cover. You go. You basically hang out
9:36
Speaker 1: at Saint Almost the Steakhouse, which is a block away
9:39
Speaker 1: from where they hold the Combine. The coaches, the gens,
9:42
Speaker 1: the writers, the analysts, everyone sent to the bar for
9:45
Speaker 1: eight straight nights or seven straight nights whatever. It is,
9:49
Speaker 1: getting drunk, trading gossip and sharing news about what's happening
9:52
Speaker 1: at the Combine and elsewhere. That's everything you'll see from
9:55
Speaker 1: on every single media outlet. It is coming from somebody
9:58
Speaker 1: at Saint Almost Seakhouse. I'm just telling you right now,
10:00
Speaker 1: all that talking just to drop Peter King's name. Alright, Chad,
10:03
Speaker 1: let's keep it going. Why why are you being me?
10:05
Speaker 1: Are you mad? Because I'm known in Cuba. It's just anorable.
10:08
Speaker 1: It's just a long story to just drop Peter King's name.
10:11
Speaker 1: We love it. We love Peter King. We love Chad
10:13
Speaker 1: dropping names. Oh my god. So here we go. All
10:16
Speaker 1: these players are flying to Indie. Three players are flying Indie.
10:19
Speaker 1: They're gonna be tested physically, mentally, They're going to be interviewed.
10:24
Speaker 1: Everybody is going to get poked and product. You've all
10:28
Speaker 1: seen that famous picture of Tom Brady sort of in
10:30
Speaker 1: his combine photo. This is where decisions are made, Fortunes
10:35
Speaker 1: are made, fortunes are lost. Players move up and down
10:38
Speaker 1: the draft board based on combine performance. So, Freeman, I'll
10:42
Speaker 1: start with you what type of player has the most
10:46
Speaker 1: to gain from the combine right now? So I think
10:49
Speaker 1: there are two types of players. The first is maybe
10:52
Speaker 1: like the smaller school type of prospect, the guy who's
10:54
Speaker 1: on the fringe of NFL value. And so I would
10:57
Speaker 1: put that as the guy who, you know, does he
10:59
Speaker 1: go on Day two with a good combine or does
11:02
Speaker 1: he fail at the combine and go Day three or
11:05
Speaker 1: go undrafted. And then the second kind of guy is
11:07
Speaker 1: the one that already like has clear NFL value. The
11:11
Speaker 1: question is does he catapult himself to being a top
11:14
Speaker 1: player at his position? His position? So think of Cavon Thibodeau, right,
11:19
Speaker 1: who just you know, four to six weeks ago, look
11:21
Speaker 1: like he might be the number one player in the draft.
11:24
Speaker 1: His draft stock is declined, but we know the guy
11:27
Speaker 1: is a freak athlete. We know that from his days
11:30
Speaker 1: as a high school student. He was potentially one of
11:33
Speaker 1: the if not the top prospect in his recruitment class,
11:37
Speaker 1: a five star recruit, the top defensive lineman in his class.
11:40
Speaker 1: We know he could tear up the combine. If he
11:42
Speaker 1: does it, he shoots right back up to having potentially
11:45
Speaker 1: number one draft stock. So a guy like that, he
11:48
Speaker 1: has a lot to gain from the combine. And then
11:51
Speaker 1: smaller school guys, if they have a good combine, they
11:54
Speaker 1: have the college production, you know, they've got the size,
11:57
Speaker 1: if they have athleticism, the draft capital wolf follow who
12:01
Speaker 1: has the most to lose? I mean they, I would say,
12:04
Speaker 1: guys who have already checked all of the boxes or
12:08
Speaker 1: most of the boxes, and they just need to avoid
12:10
Speaker 1: a catastrophic combined. And so there are some guys who
12:14
Speaker 1: who come to mind, I would say, this is a
12:16
Speaker 1: decent wide receiver class in comparison to some of the
12:19
Speaker 1: other positions. It's a decent wide receiver class, so we
12:22
Speaker 1: could see five to six guys go in the top
12:25
Speaker 1: we'll say fourty picks at the wide receiver position. So
12:29
Speaker 1: there are a number of guys who just need not
12:32
Speaker 1: to destroy themselves at the combine. I'm thinking of someone
12:37
Speaker 1: like Brake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olava. All of these
12:42
Speaker 1: guys are kind of consensus e first round wide receivers.
12:47
Speaker 1: As long as they don't do anything terrible at the combine,
12:50
Speaker 1: they should all go in the first round. So guys
12:53
Speaker 1: who are in you know, the wheelhouse of locked in
12:58
Speaker 1: top forty, top fifty NFL value, those are the guys
13:02
Speaker 1: who have a lot to lose this draft class. I stay.
13:06
Speaker 1: I think we talked last year a lot about it.
13:08
Speaker 1: I I've mainly focused towards the quarterback because quarterback that
13:11
Speaker 1: lets me help prepare for the upcoming season knowing these
13:13
Speaker 1: quarterbacks note their strength or weaknesses are I kind of
13:16
Speaker 1: had millions now run through the draft and other prospects,
13:19
Speaker 1: and when I bet the draft, I bet off rumor
13:22
Speaker 1: and try to find the value in what the pros
13:25
Speaker 1: are talking about and where I can like find where
13:28
Speaker 1: the public here is one thing, but the pros. Note,
13:30
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a different thing. So this draft class,
13:32
Speaker 1: just on paper, people are gonna talk about it. It's
13:35
Speaker 1: it's not what last year was. Like. Last year was
13:37
Speaker 1: we could argue one of the best draft classes we
13:39
Speaker 1: bell oversee the three receivers taking the top ten. We're
13:43
Speaker 1: all incredible, Like, none of them were bad. Pits was
13:46
Speaker 1: great at tight end, both offensive linemen were great. It
13:49
Speaker 1: was just a very special draft last year. Where this
13:51
Speaker 1: draft is more of a class of just solid players.
13:56
Speaker 1: Like there, as an Eagles fan, we have three first
13:59
Speaker 1: round picks. That's a big deal in this draft. Like
14:01
Speaker 1: if you need a d linement, if you need an
14:03
Speaker 1: offensive lineman, if you need linebacker help this this draft
14:06
Speaker 1: class is littered with studs. So I definitely want to
14:10
Speaker 1: hear a Matt stake on this quarterback class. You know,
14:12
Speaker 1: there's a there's a couple of different athletes that could
14:14
Speaker 1: push their way into being the first quarterback taken. But
14:18
Speaker 1: like Chad talked earlier in the year, it's it's hard
14:20
Speaker 1: to see a quarterback on the top ten, but I
14:21
Speaker 1: can see it happening, just because teams are gonna be desperate.
14:24
Speaker 1: We always know who teams are gonna take a quarterback.
14:26
Speaker 1: So I would love to hear what you think, Matt, like,
14:28
Speaker 1: who do you think will be the first quarterback to go?
14:30
Speaker 1: And do you think there would be one of the
14:31
Speaker 1: top ten? Hold on, I want Freemen to answer this.
14:35
Speaker 1: But Chad didn't say it'll be tough for a quarterback
14:38
Speaker 1: to be in the top ten. Chad said there will
14:41
Speaker 1: not be a quarterback taken in the top ten, and
14:46
Speaker 1: you and Mitchell laughed uproarially. So Freedman, please weigh in.
14:52
Speaker 1: It's a great take, Chad. The two teams that might
14:56
Speaker 1: give problems the Panthers and the Broncos, But I think
15:00
Speaker 1: both of those teams have a decent chance of going
15:03
Speaker 1: after other quarterbacks. So let's say Aaron Rodgers. I mean,
15:06
Speaker 1: there's a natural landing spot with the Broncos and the Panthers.
15:10
Speaker 1: I could see them looking to uh to make a
15:12
Speaker 1: splash in the trade market. You know, you could see
15:15
Speaker 1: them going with Jimmy Garoppolo. You can see them going
15:17
Speaker 1: with Deshaun Watson. And I mean, you would rather have
15:20
Speaker 1: any of those quarterbacks over one of the rookies in
15:24
Speaker 1: this class, because, as Simon said, this is a nasty class.
15:28
Speaker 1: Balance of probability, we probably get one quarterback in the
15:32
Speaker 1: top ten, but I think it happens at pick number nine.
15:34
Speaker 1: But I don't have any confidence in that. I would
15:37
Speaker 1: just say I think it's probably likely. But this is
15:41
Speaker 1: a disgusting quarterback class. Any of the quarterbacks who go
15:44
Speaker 1: in round one this year one didn't have gone in
15:47
Speaker 1: round one last year. I think if you're looking at
15:50
Speaker 1: the betting market, we might talk about that a little
15:52
Speaker 1: bit later. But Malik Willis is interesting as the guy
15:56
Speaker 1: who could be the number one quarterback. I think, you know,
15:58
Speaker 1: he's starting to get some heat. He had a good
16:00
Speaker 1: Senior Bowl. He's the guy would look at right now
16:03
Speaker 1: to be the number one quarterback drafted. But Kenny Pickett
16:06
Speaker 1: is also a guy who's been universally mocked in round one.
16:09
Speaker 1: I'm going to be interested at the combine. The hand
16:12
Speaker 1: measurement thing is hilarious and ridiculous. So you know, nine
16:16
Speaker 1: inches is sort of like the threshold, like are you
16:18
Speaker 1: a legitimate NFL quarterback? Nine inches is a threshold. Kenny
16:22
Speaker 1: Pickett would not let his hand be measured at the
16:24
Speaker 1: Senior Bowl because he is reportedly double jointed, so his
16:28
Speaker 1: thumb sticks out at a weird angle. Uh okay, whatever.
16:32
Speaker 1: That's a sign of where we are in the off
16:34
Speaker 1: season that we're talking about a dude's thumb. Anyway, he's
16:37
Speaker 1: apparently doing thumb exercises to try to stretch out his hand.
16:41
Speaker 1: This is ridiculous. I think he has small hands and
16:44
Speaker 1: is using the double jointed stuff as an excuse. Like
16:47
Speaker 1: I think it's real. He does have double joint enhanced,
16:49
Speaker 1: but it's an excuse. So I will be curious to
16:51
Speaker 1: see the hand measurement for Kinney Pickett. But that's the
16:54
Speaker 1: most notable thing about these quarterbacks at the combine out
16:58
Speaker 1: of what we see for the most part doesn't matter.
17:01
Speaker 1: This is a class that is really boring. I cannot
17:04
Speaker 1: believe we're having a conversation about a quarterback who would
17:07
Speaker 1: be a third or fourth round pick, but because of
17:10
Speaker 1: the the shallow nature of this particular draft and the
17:15
Speaker 1: quarterbacks in it, he can be a first round pick,
17:18
Speaker 1: and we got to talk about him being double jointed.
17:21
Speaker 1: I got validation from Freedom and that there will not
17:24
Speaker 1: be a top ten quarter quarterback taken in the top ten. Simon,
17:27
Speaker 1: you mentioned the rumors. Do you feel that the rumors
17:30
Speaker 1: that come out of the combine are reliable and do
17:35
Speaker 1: they drive any sort of betting actionable betting for you guys.
17:41
Speaker 1: So I think there are two types of rumors that
17:45
Speaker 1: come out of the combine. One has to do with
17:46
Speaker 1: the prospects, that's obvious. The other type of rumors are
17:49
Speaker 1: like free agent type of rumors, like, you know, we
17:52
Speaker 1: think that this guy is going to be released by
17:55
Speaker 1: his team or something like that. Those rumors seem to
17:57
Speaker 1: have more validity because it's like, why else would would
18:00
Speaker 1: teams to be talking about that are like, this guy's
18:02
Speaker 1: on the trade market stuff like that. Those rumors are interesting,
18:06
Speaker 1: and we can see them come to fruition pretty quickly
18:09
Speaker 1: with free agency coming up just a little bit after
18:12
Speaker 1: the combine. The rumors that have to do with the prospects,
18:15
Speaker 1: a lot of those are fluffy type of rumors, you know,
18:19
Speaker 1: to where it's like, oh, NFL teams evaluators are high
18:22
Speaker 1: on this guy. He seems really likely to be a
18:24
Speaker 1: first round pick. You add up all of the rumors
18:26
Speaker 1: and it's like, look, everyone's saying that fifty guys are
18:28
Speaker 1: going to go in the first round, Like mathematically that
18:31
Speaker 1: is not possible. But the rumors that are negative on guys.
18:35
Speaker 1: Those are the rumors that really catch your eye, because
18:39
Speaker 1: I mean, it's fluff season. Everyone's in love with different prospects.
18:43
Speaker 1: If people are out there talking about how a guy
18:45
Speaker 1: isn't really impressing the evaluators, that stuff means something. So
18:49
Speaker 1: that is really where I start to pay attention on
18:52
Speaker 1: prospect rumors. Yeah, I'm right there with them. It's hard, though, Like,
18:57
Speaker 1: especially the more I've learned about media, it feels like
19:00
Speaker 1: unless I know. But the one thing I have learned
19:02
Speaker 1: is there are certain guys are just straight puppets. You
19:05
Speaker 1: kind of when you kind of need to make a
19:07
Speaker 1: list of who's legit and who's reporting stuff that you're like, Okay,
19:10
Speaker 1: this is really good infot and there's other people that
19:12
Speaker 1: they're just reporting back what other general managers are telling them,
19:15
Speaker 1: which is to get people off their scent or whatever.
19:18
Speaker 1: And we've seen people in the media they drive markets.
19:21
Speaker 1: Like we talked all last year. I mean it literally,
19:24
Speaker 1: I like not to brag, but it felt like we're
19:26
Speaker 1: the only show that said Mac Jones was not gonna
19:29
Speaker 1: be the third pick. And it was just one of
19:30
Speaker 1: those where I mean we took a lot of heatport
19:33
Speaker 1: because people are just like well Pro Football Focus or
19:36
Speaker 1: ESPN or all these different shows we're talking about that
19:39
Speaker 1: Mac was a lock to be the third pick of
19:41
Speaker 1: role and that it was Shana Hand's guy, and John
19:43
Speaker 1: Lynch was obsessed with him and he had traveled out
19:45
Speaker 1: to go see him, and he had visit him in
19:47
Speaker 1: Bam and all this other stuff that I mean, for
19:49
Speaker 1: the fact, for not to just simply not be true.
19:51
Speaker 1: It's like these people have to fill two months of conversation.
19:54
Speaker 1: That's their job. Their job is not to be right,
19:56
Speaker 1: Their job is just to get people to will listen
19:58
Speaker 1: and watch the stuff they're saying. So my advice and
20:01
Speaker 1: would be two people is a lot of it is true,
20:04
Speaker 1: but it's so much of it just bs where it's
20:06
Speaker 1: the general managers trying to mess around with other teams
20:08
Speaker 1: either trying to get team to trade up, trade down,
20:11
Speaker 1: different players to follow them. So definitely, definitely be careful
20:14
Speaker 1: what sources you use. It is a fluff season. It
20:17
Speaker 1: is definitely fluff season. What I will say, I'm like, Okay,
20:22
Speaker 1: I am blocked now by Adam Schefter, which is hilarious
20:26
Speaker 1: to me. But Schefter, I mean he outright said last
20:29
Speaker 1: year he outright said it will be Mac Jones when
20:33
Speaker 1: someone asked him about the number three pick. He backtracked
20:36
Speaker 1: a little bit after that. But you know, Schefter hasn't
20:39
Speaker 1: had a great year. I said that on Twitter and
20:41
Speaker 1: he blocked me. So now I'm just gonna say, if
20:43
Speaker 1: Adam Schefter says anything, Adam, please stop blocking me. Uh
20:47
Speaker 1: you are great at your job. If Schefter reports it,
20:51
Speaker 1: it must be true. Here's the thing, Simon, You're wrong
20:55
Speaker 1: in that people are trying to just fill the airwaves. Yeah,
21:00
Speaker 1: they're trying to fill the airwaves, but they also want
21:02
Speaker 1: to be right. You don't want to give bad information.
21:06
Speaker 1: Don't listen. Don't be that x NFL player who goes
21:08
Speaker 1: into the broadcast booth and then whines about the media
21:12
Speaker 1: as if you're not a part of the media. You're
21:14
Speaker 1: a part of the media, buddy. You have a massively
21:17
Speaker 1: popular podcast. Your face is part of the logo. You
21:20
Speaker 1: are in the media. You want to be right as
21:22
Speaker 1: much as the next guy. Yeah, but my job is easy.
21:26
Speaker 1: I have a job where I need to be right
21:27
Speaker 1: for a half hour segment or an hour or show,
21:31
Speaker 1: whatever we're doing. And I know what I'm talking about.
21:33
Speaker 1: These other people on TV they don't know, Like, no,
21:36
Speaker 1: not everyone has sources. It's so hard to get good,
21:39
Speaker 1: reliable sources in life. Like that's the thing I joke
21:41
Speaker 1: all the time. There are not thousands of professional sports
21:44
Speaker 1: bettors on Twitter chat Like it's the same thing I media.
21:47
Speaker 1: There aren't hundreds of people with good intel. Here's people
21:50
Speaker 1: that do shows five days a week that just need
21:52
Speaker 1: to fill the airwaves. Yeah, they might be right every
21:54
Speaker 1: now and then they're gonna talk up those rights. They're
21:57
Speaker 1: not gonna talk about their losses, which just gonna show
21:59
Speaker 1: right into the carpet. Like do you ever hear Chris
22:02
Speaker 1: Simms go backtrack about how loud wrong he was or
22:05
Speaker 1: Adam Schefter, how loud wrong they were about mac Jones. No,
22:08
Speaker 1: they moved on to the second day of the draft
22:09
Speaker 1: and kept it moving. So people in the media they
22:12
Speaker 1: ship all the time. But I think more often than not,
22:15
Speaker 1: it's gonna be good info. Like again, we just talked
22:17
Speaker 1: about Schefter had a rough year, that's because he was
22:20
Speaker 1: so good at his job all these other years, and
22:21
Speaker 1: like that's what I'm trying to give the people. It's like, yeah,
22:24
Speaker 1: I think a lot of it it's fluff, like Matt
22:26
Speaker 1: was saying, but there are is a lot of good information.
22:28
Speaker 1: That's your job. You have to kind of figure out
22:30
Speaker 1: who to trust and who not to trust. All Right,
22:32
Speaker 1: that's very that's a good point. I like the way
22:35
Speaker 1: you're framing it excellent. As a member of the media,
22:38
Speaker 1: a longstanding Capital j journalist, I feel like people do
22:41
Speaker 1: their best and sometimes you get it right, sometimes you
22:43
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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Friedman, You're kind of a
24:35
Speaker 1: draft freak, are you, already thinking about players you're excited
24:39
Speaker 1: to see at the combine, excited to get reports on
24:41
Speaker 1: who are they? Yeah, so you know running backs. You know,
24:45
Speaker 1: I'm a I'm a fantasy guy, so I always like
24:47
Speaker 1: to think about the running backs. There were three running
24:49
Speaker 1: backs in this class that I think have a decent
24:51
Speaker 1: chance of being you know, you're you're sort of typical
24:55
Speaker 1: three down leadback grinder. Those guys Bruce Hall, I Jais, Biller,
25:00
Speaker 1: Kenny Walker. All three of them had multiple years of production.
25:04
Speaker 1: I want to see how big these guys actually are, Like,
25:06
Speaker 1: we want verified size on them. Are they the type
25:10
Speaker 1: of build that can be an NFL lead back? And
25:13
Speaker 1: then you know, we want reports on them in the
25:15
Speaker 1: past catching drills. Can they actually be three down backs,
25:19
Speaker 1: high volume guys who can contribute on the ground or
25:21
Speaker 1: through the air. If so, I think all of them
25:24
Speaker 1: have a decent chance of going in Round two. If
25:26
Speaker 1: not maybe round two, probably more like rounds three or four.
25:30
Speaker 1: And there's for running backs a pretty big difference between
25:33
Speaker 1: the guys who go in round two and the guys
25:35
Speaker 1: who go after that. And then a couple of wide
25:38
Speaker 1: receivers really catch my eye. The first one is Treylon
25:41
Speaker 1: Burke's stud sec receiver Dominator out of Arkansas listed at
25:46
Speaker 1: six pounds. Is he really that big, right? And then
25:51
Speaker 1: if he is, what kind of athleticism accompanies that size?
25:54
Speaker 1: His tape looks great. Does he have the measurements to
25:57
Speaker 1: back it up the way that Justin Jefferson and Mark
26:00
Speaker 1: chased it. If he's big, easily going in round one.
26:04
Speaker 1: If he's big and fast, I think he could go
26:07
Speaker 1: in the top ten. Personally right now, I have him
26:09
Speaker 1: as the number one wide receiver in the class, and
26:12
Speaker 1: part that's because Jamison Williams is injured. But I have
26:15
Speaker 1: him as the number one wide receiver in the class.
26:17
Speaker 1: It could could it could change based on the combine,
26:20
Speaker 1: but I'm excited to see him. And then the other
26:22
Speaker 1: wide receiver, John Dotson out of Penn State. He's a
26:25
Speaker 1: do it all type of playmaker. He's scored touchdowns as
26:29
Speaker 1: a receiver, a runner, as a punt returner. He's a
26:32
Speaker 1: smaller guy with an electric skill set. And he's on
26:35
Speaker 1: the round one borderline. So if he blazes a really
26:39
Speaker 1: fast forty time and the low four fours or the
26:41
Speaker 1: high four threes, I think he's gonna go on Day
26:44
Speaker 1: one so excited to see what he can do at
26:46
Speaker 1: the combine, Like a signon has already indicated he's coming
26:50
Speaker 1: after me for dropping Peter King, but how he casually
26:55
Speaker 1: drops in there. I got millions who are helping me
26:58
Speaker 1: manage a lot of I draft research, so I will
27:03
Speaker 1: throw this one to sign it. Have you or your
27:06
Speaker 1: minions considered either of the two draft props that are
27:10
Speaker 1: currently up at fandel number one overall pick or first
27:15
Speaker 1: QB taken? Do you have an opinion on either one
27:19
Speaker 1: of those? Yeah, I definitely struck gall the first overall pick.
27:22
Speaker 1: I basically was betting on either Detroit having the worst
27:26
Speaker 1: record in football or just anyone but like the jack
27:29
Speaker 1: like the Jaguars, like you just didn't want to have
27:31
Speaker 1: the worst team and football have a quarterback that they
27:34
Speaker 1: just drafted last year. So I was hoping it was
27:36
Speaker 1: gonna be Detroit and then maybe hit on one of
27:38
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks to be the first pick, just because you
27:41
Speaker 1: know Detroit would be desperate and they would maybe just
27:42
Speaker 1: take a quarterback. But I failed that one. So the
27:46
Speaker 1: way the first pick is looking, it seems like they're
27:48
Speaker 1: either gonna taken offense a lignment or d N with
27:50
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, So we touched on a little bit this offseason.
27:53
Speaker 1: We had d NC state offensive alignment. I don't know
27:55
Speaker 1: if you remember, oh, but I remember we talked about
27:57
Speaker 1: how his draft numbers were moving, right, so went from
28:00
Speaker 1: about a hundred oh one to eight to one, seven
28:03
Speaker 1: oh one down to five to one to be the
28:04
Speaker 1: first to roll fixed. So it's between him and it's
28:07
Speaker 1: kid from Bama right now for offensive linemen, and then
28:10
Speaker 1: we all know the d n story and stuff. We
28:12
Speaker 1: got the kid out of Michigan, which is like being
28:14
Speaker 1: hyped up. So I'm gonna get more into it. But
28:17
Speaker 1: as we sit here right now, I just see again
28:20
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk a lot of Jacks this year. People
28:22
Speaker 1: are gonna learn I really love the Jaguars, and I
28:23
Speaker 1: love the hire of Doug Peterson, which we can argue
28:26
Speaker 1: all day about how Carson Wentz might be one of
28:28
Speaker 1: the worst quarterbacks in football. He turned that get into
28:30
Speaker 1: a stud and was one number one seed in football
28:33
Speaker 1: the year he coached Carson Wentz. So that was Carson
28:35
Speaker 1: went second year. So I'm I'm been in a big
28:37
Speaker 1: leap from this Jaguars team with Trevor Lawrence at the
28:40
Speaker 1: quarterback position. They gotta get offensive lineman. The kid was
28:44
Speaker 1: running for his life all the time. So if you're
28:46
Speaker 1: if you're looking to make I bet right now you
28:48
Speaker 1: just want action. I like being the first pick overall
28:51
Speaker 1: being offensive lineman. It's it's good value right now. But
28:54
Speaker 1: leave the Vanduel was plus one forty. They took it down.
28:57
Speaker 1: So again, I've been away for a week. Out they
29:00
Speaker 1: hang it again. It's probably gonna be plus one ten
29:02
Speaker 1: plus one twenty because all the pros I've talked to
29:05
Speaker 1: they think the same way I do. They think. Once
29:07
Speaker 1: they hired Doug Peterson, that's that's the sign they're gonna
29:10
Speaker 1: take an offensive linement for this team. Freedman number one
29:13
Speaker 1: over I'll pick first be taken. So on first quarterback taken,
29:17
Speaker 1: I already have positions. Malik Willis a plus two hundred
29:21
Speaker 1: and Kinney Pickett plus one seventy five. If fan duel,
29:23
Speaker 1: those lines are now Malik Willis I believe plus one
29:27
Speaker 1: fifty and Kinney Pickett plus one twenty. So shout out
29:31
Speaker 1: me on getting that sweet sweet closing line value. But
29:34
Speaker 1: I still think that there's value on both of those guys.
29:36
Speaker 1: I don't see Sam Howell, Matt mac coral, Desmond Ritter.
29:40
Speaker 1: I don't see any of those guys challenging to be
29:42
Speaker 1: the number one quarterback. I think it's a two man
29:45
Speaker 1: race between Willis and Pike It and for the number
29:47
Speaker 1: one pick, I mean came on Thibodeaux at six to one.
29:52
Speaker 1: He is intriguing because, I mean, just a couple of
29:55
Speaker 1: months ago he seemed kind of locked in is the
29:58
Speaker 1: number one pick. Now. I do know that we could
30:01
Speaker 1: see as Simon was mentioning offensive tackle as the number
30:04
Speaker 1: one player taken, and it's between Evan Neil and Kim
30:08
Speaker 1: a Quantu And okay, I think this is very similar
30:11
Speaker 1: to the situation we have last year where everyone had
30:14
Speaker 1: Piney Sewell as the number one offensive tackle, but really
30:18
Speaker 1: close just behind him was Rashawn Slater, and I think
30:22
Speaker 1: similarly now Neil and a Quantu are very close. Everyone
30:26
Speaker 1: is saying that Neil is number one, but a Quantu
30:28
Speaker 1: has a very very good chance of going in the
30:30
Speaker 1: top five, and if he does well at the combine
30:33
Speaker 1: or Evan Neil slips a little bit, a Quantu could
30:35
Speaker 1: be the top tackle in the class. And right now
30:38
Speaker 1: he's available ten to one at Vandel I think there's
30:41
Speaker 1: some value there, so a quantu. If I had to
30:44
Speaker 1: make a bet on the number one pick right now,
30:47
Speaker 1: I would go a quantum. That's exciting. I like both
30:51
Speaker 1: of these conversations the top q B. I'm just I'm
30:53
Speaker 1: positive because I'm making a note on ma leak or
30:57
Speaker 1: pick it and a quanta at number one overall. Freedman,
31:02
Speaker 1: you know what he came back. I think it shows
31:05
Speaker 1: what what big people me and Simon and Matt Mitchell
31:09
Speaker 1: are and that we're having me back on because we
31:12
Speaker 1: respect your draft authority, even though you know he bailed
31:15
Speaker 1: on us. But no one questions your largest Chad. Everyone
31:19
Speaker 1: knows how magnanimous you are as a person all the
31:22
Speaker 1: way to Cuba. They know absolutely. Chad Millman is proud
31:28
Speaker 1: of himself. Matt Friedman, chief strategist at f t N.
31:37
Speaker 1: Check it out really good content, really good ideas on
31:42
Speaker 1: the ft N network overall, whether you listen to podcasts
31:46
Speaker 1: or watch it on video or go to the site,
31:50
Speaker 1: or you're on Twitter at Matt f the Oracle on Twitter.
31:54
Speaker 1: His m a's are legendary. Simon Hunter professional better might
31:59
Speaker 1: be f F. I'm so glad you're enjoying your world
32:02
Speaker 1: tour and taking your job seriously and coming on even
32:04
Speaker 1: when you're on vacation because I'm not. I'm not doing
32:06
Speaker 1: that for Matt Mitchell, our producer. I am Chad Millman.
32:10
Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast Network.
32:14
Speaker 1: Download us from Apple Podcasts, got Spotify. Until next time,
32:18
Speaker 1: I Love you,