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Transcript

2024 Crop Tour Day 1 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Today is August 4th, 2024.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: We've got the first day of the crop tour for professional egg marketing underway here.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: We wrapped up uh about how many miles did we travel today, Branston?
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: 492.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: So we went from uh northwest Iowa over in Sioux County, kind of worked our way over into Nebraska, made some stops in northeast Nebraska, worked our way down into the south part of Nebraska on the southeast corner, and then worked our way kind of through the southwest side of Iowa again, back into Missouri to close out our night, Branston.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: So uh with our fun journey today, we started off in northwest Iowa, uh kind of the heart of uh some really good, expensive corn growing country and really good crops historically.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: We've checked this field numerous times over the years, Branston, and uh tell me a little bit about what you caught from that first stop, I guess, and then I'll give you my thoughts.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: So uh like my guided said, we went back and looked at this uh piece of ground about two years ago.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh normally we have the local area receiving uh larger than normal amounts of rainfall.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the farmer's guess this year was around 210 to 215 yield for this piece of land.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Uh but didn't mention that, you know, in the last month the crop itself has improved greatly.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um with our kind of samples, we showed a field stand count of 33 and our range came anywhere between 210 and 250, with our average guess being about 220.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Um it was a lot higher than our expectation due to how wet June was, but you know, it's looking really good out there.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: So normal yields would have been around that like 225 for that piece, and uh he was expecting somewhere around 210 just because kind of he planted it the middle of April.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: It looked pretty good right off the bat, uh, you know, of planting date.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh things were getting in the field pretty good, and then it just started raining and didn't shut off through May and June.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: It took a long time to come out of the ground.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so then it struggled here for a little bit through May, June, and then over the last month it really the crop got saved in a great way.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: Uh really caught up uh it it's hiding a lot of the sins out there, I think, from earlier on in the growing season, and uh that's helping out in northwest Iowa at this point.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: So from the road and from the samples, they were probably better for that area than what we had expected to see.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: Uh there are definitely some very, very good crops in in northwest Iowa, and there are some spots that are getting probably hidden a little bit based on some of the earlier since for uh planting time frames and some of the water uh that had come through that part of the world, but honestly, it looked better than what we had expected.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: It looked better than probably what the farmer uh had expected from the samples, and uh that was a little bit surprising for that part of the world.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe close to an average uh crop, uh maybe a little bit lighter than average, but maybe not quite as bad as what uh that farmer had been thinking, and that really sums up, I think, northwest Iowa.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: As we worked our way into northeast Nebraska, the crops were superb from that uh from that side of the world.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you know, tonight we're gonna come out with our final Nebraska yield, and I would say it was really easy to see.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_01: We we had really green conditions all the way from northeast Nebraska, uh, all the way to the south side of Nebraska, really.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: We started uh to see some very good corn uh as we got worked our way into Nebraska there.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that area you can typically start to see a really big difference between where the pivots are and where the corner of the fields are that are a little bit dry.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh this year, that's not the case.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: It was very green, they've received pretty ample rainfall.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_01: If they continue to receive good rainfall throughout the rest of the growing season here, uh maybe not a record, but it it could push uh very, very above average levels here.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_01: And our samples would suggest that anyways from our northeast Nebraska stop uh at uh at some pieces there.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: We did both dry and irrigated uh on some pieces that had been a very similar middle of May plant date on those two pieces, and uh the dry it was about a 40 bushel difference on dry to irrigated, which was a little bit bigger than I still expected to see with the ample rainfall they've got, but nonetheless, um yeah, a pretty uh pretty average to just above average uh for that northeast Nebraska crop, and I won't be surprised if we do well above average, but probably not quite a record because of the samples that we had pulled.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: And when you get working towards like Norfolk, I mean that area there, it started to show some signs of stress, maybe along the the drier side in some of those spots, um maybe some uh inconsistencies in that crop, but still really good for the state of Nebraska, all the way down into York and the surrounding counties around York had experienced some earlier problems with big hailstorms, um, some flooding areas as we kind of worked east of that uh county.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: Our York samples pulled out very close to what the five-year averages had been.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: We pulled out some really good uh samples there as well.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the majority of crops were fantastic through Nebraska.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'd say good to excellent the whole way through the entire state, basically, with a couple hiccups very minute here or there, you know, maybe two percent, something like that, that had been either flooded out or uh maybe caught some hailstorms earlier on, but they were very hard to see.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: You really had to be looking for them on our route.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: I know some of the other areas, if we would have traveled, uh we would have definitely seen some harder hit areas uh in that southern part of Nebraska for hailstorms and whatnot.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: But the the crop in general was awesome for Nebraska.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna come out with our average um uh for the state of Nebraska tonight, which is gonna be right around 190.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: And I would say the given the current crop conditions, it's probably a little bit more beneficial to higher than 190.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: The prior record for the state of Nebraska was 194.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: And our samples, and just from what I had seen, was maybe a little bit disappointing to give us like uh over a record, you know, from when I had gone through in 2021, um uh my samples versus that year, the crop conditions versus that year.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna have maybe a little bit of a hard time breaking above that 2021 uh record yield at 194 uh for the majority of the stops that we saw today.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_01: But the crop conditions throughout were good to excellent, not a whole lot of hiccups, which I think is gonna lead to a really good Nebraska score.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: Uh if it doesn't do a record, it's maybe because we don't have the best finish to the crop that we could, or we have uh maybe that hailstorm that took out near half a million acres or so that they had thought uh from some other surveys and analysts, maybe that plays a bigger part in dragging that yield off of a record.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: But nonetheless, I don't think we're far off of uh 190 to 194, depending on how it looks like we're gonna finish.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: And with the next seven to ten day rainfall being a little bit better, I think the Nebraska crops off to a very good start.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: So in general, I think if the national yield is gonna be somewhere near trend line at 181, which is gonna be the big question of our crop tour this year, is are we a 181 yield or not?
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: Because that's gonna be the true question.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: Uh um at uh at this point, you know, the USDA hasn't had a reason to come off of that, and we're gonna go state by state and say if we're gonna pull off 181, this state's probably a good reason to go lower than 181.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: Nebraska's not gonna be that state that's gonna be pushing record yield.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: So even with a few of the hiccups here or there, I'm just gonna X that out and say that's not gonna be the reason for being a below uh trend line uh yield at this point.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: So uh I would give uh Nebraska the benefit of the doubt to help us out for a record U.S.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: corn yield.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um are we able to hit 181?
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: Nebraska's doing its part in in that case study for us here this year.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: Any final thoughts from you, Branston, before I wrap up?
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Uh nothing other than pretty much what we've already said, Mike.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it all the crops really look good and just kind of being nitpicky there with a few of the spots that were maybe not as ideal, but other than that, you know, y you said everything, you hit the nail on the head.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's perfect the way to put that too.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: Some of the spots like I had talked about with the bumps in the road, it it's very nitpicky.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: I had to really be really watching to see some of those uh, you know, outside corners of the field maybe drying up around Norfolk.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you had to r really look hard to find some imperfections in this route in our first day.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: And that's not always the case in eastern Nebraska there the whole way through.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we can tap definitely get into some drier parts uh most years.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see how the crop trends from here on out, but it looks like it's gonna finish pretty strong, guys.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for your time today.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: Catch us tomorrow.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna be traveling through Missouri into Illinois and potentially Indiana here.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: So uh listen in for tomorrow.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: We'll have some uh pretty decent yield forecasts ahead of us here and uh a fun uh oh just under 2,000 miles left, guys.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us at professional eggmarketing.com.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing, that's released every Friday.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: See you next time.