Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Inside the shutdown: farm payments, China, and what’s next for ag policy

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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Inside the shutdown: farm payments, China, and what’s next for ag policy · AG Bull

0:22
SPEAKER_00: Happy Friday, everyone.
0:23
SPEAKER_00: Tom Grassofi, Ag Bowl Media, Egg Bull Trading.
0:27
SPEAKER_00: I'm in Nashville, Tennessee today at the Nesvik Trading Office.
0:31
SPEAKER_00: And we got the one and only.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
0:33
SPEAKER_00: Jim Wiesmeyer.
0:34
SPEAKER_00: To say I'm excited that this week's over, I could use a nap.
0:38
SPEAKER_00: Are you tired?
0:40
SPEAKER_02: I am very tired because of all the shutdown of the government, uh, trade aid to farmers under review could be announced uh if the government's open next week.
0:52
SPEAKER_02: Trump is going to meet with Canada's prime minister next week.
0:56
SPEAKER_02: And we have more than that that we'll talk about today.
1:00
SPEAKER_02: And I do want to tell your listeners that I'll be in Savannah, Georgia, early part of this coming week to a crop insurance agents meeting.
1:09
SPEAKER_02: So I'll have fun there.
1:11
SPEAKER_00: Good, good.
1:12
SPEAKER_00: Uh hope uh I hope someone it'd be really cool if someone watches this show and they see you.
1:16
SPEAKER_00: I'll uh I'll pull up the bullet points and we'll have a nice conversation.
1:20
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
1:21
SPEAKER_00: Got a good organized show.
1:22
SPEAKER_00: You know why we got a good organized show?
1:24
SPEAKER_00: Because you sent us good organized notes.
1:27
SPEAKER_00: Government shutdown, Mr.
1:28
SPEAKER_00: Jim Weesmeyer.
1:30
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we just had a vote on the Senate floor.
1:33
SPEAKER_02: They rejected uh the bill again, a clean, a clean bill to reopen the government until November the 21st.
1:42
SPEAKER_02: That's the Republican bill that they voted down.
1:45
SPEAKER_02: We all know the Democrat alternative will not pass.
1:47
SPEAKER_02: So it looks like we're into next week.
1:50
SPEAKER_02: I don't know what, I don't think they'll meet this weekend unless they have a surprising agreement.
1:57
SPEAKER_02: And the one issue to watch for is health care, the Obamacare.
2:03
SPEAKER_02: The Democrats uh want a lot of money for that.
2:06
SPEAKER_02: But there's time, Tommy, on this one.
2:08
SPEAKER_02: And this is what the Republicans are are telling the Democrats that this increase, because they're gonna get away, they're gonna do away with the COVID time period increase that we saw in Obamacare payments.
2:23
SPEAKER_02: But COVID is basically over, not totally over, basically over.
2:29
SPEAKER_02: And they don't take uh the an increase coming in the uh Obamacare payments won't come until December the 31st of this year.
2:39
SPEAKER_02: So, how Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican from Louisiana, is telling the Democrats, hey, let's get this government opened again, and then we'll have seven weeks to talk about whether or not we can come to an agreement on some portions of what the Democrats want on Obamacare changes and what the Republicans want on Obamacare changes, such as reform.
3:07
SPEAKER_02: There could be there, they want a means test on that program, and they want to get into a significant percentage of Obamacare payments have been filed by insurance companies that had no claims on it.
3:21
SPEAKER_00: Oh boy, yeah.
3:23
SPEAKER_02: So there's a need for a reform.
3:24
SPEAKER_02: So that's where we're at, uh, at least on uh bringing back the government.
3:30
SPEAKER_02: We really don't know.
3:31
SPEAKER_02: You have to have a another vote.
3:33
SPEAKER_02: So I think they're gonna take the weekend to try to get an agreement between the congressional leaders in both the House and the Senate and both parties, and really you have to have President Trump's approval as well on that Obamacare provision.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I I think that Obamacare, there was a lot more in that recipe than we all realize when we I remember when they signed that many years ago, and then a lot of us thought it was a wonderful thing, but there was it was like a ticking time bomb for all the things that are cooked in that.
4:05
SPEAKER_00: Is that accurate?
4:07
SPEAKER_02: Very accurate, and there was so much misreporting or sleight of hand when they did it, because remember, it was supposed to save money.
4:16
SPEAKER_02: Well, it it was really a huge cost factor.
4:20
SPEAKER_02: And this one provision on the COVID-related increases, that's only 200 billion dollars cost.
4:28
SPEAKER_00: What's 200b amongst friends, Mr.
4:31
SPEAKER_00: Wee Spider?
4:32
SPEAKER_02: So there needs to be reform.
4:35
SPEAKER_02: And I'm just being honest, uh just it needs to be reformed.
4:39
SPEAKER_02: And they have seven weeks to talk about it.
4:42
SPEAKER_02: Now, to be fair to the Democrat side, they're saying, you know, we can't trust you unless we have it in writing from the congressional leadership on the other side, Republicans, and also we have to have an agreement that uh President uh Trump and his OMB people, Russell Volt, the the the head of office management and budget, won't rescind this funding after after we get it.
5:06
SPEAKER_02: So you'll eventually some of that will be part of an eventual agreement to bring the government out of shutdown, but we're not there yet.
5:17
SPEAKER_00: Well, let's talk about the easy stuff now.
5:20
SPEAKER_00: Status of the USDA payments until doors reopen.
5:25
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, uh a lot.
5:26
SPEAKER_02: Now, every shutdown is different, and this administration has taken a more aggressive role on payments, even mandatory payments.
5:35
SPEAKER_02: So if you could pull up the uh bullet points, uh yeah, there's yeah, most farmers are wanting to say the first one's important.
5:43
SPEAKER_02: The additional 14% payment under ECAP is out the door, so this is not affected.
5:49
SPEAKER_02: Most of those payments were made, thank goodness.
5:51
SPEAKER_02: Okay, I got a lot of emails from farmers saying, hey, they they deposited it in my account.
5:56
SPEAKER_02: I've got the money.
5:57
SPEAKER_02: Crop insurance is not impacted, okay, but ARC and PLC is affected.
6:04
SPEAKER_02: Now that hasn't occurred in prior shutdowns, so that won't those won't be paid for the 2024 crop until USDA reopens.
6:14
SPEAKER_02: And that's uh$2.3 billion.
6:16
SPEAKER_02: That's a chunk of change.
6:18
SPEAKER_02: There's no uh commodity loan activity, and loans won't be made or redeemed until USDA reopens.
6:25
SPEAKER_02: And here's another one: the stage two, and the under the disaster program SDRP, which was slated for this month, uh, that's on hold right now.
6:35
SPEAKER_02: ERP, ER, ELRP, livestock.
6:39
SPEAKER_02: They're halted those applications until USDA comes back, and the block grants where certain states are on pause until we get the government back and running.
6:49
SPEAKER_02: And so that's pretty important stuff as far as uh you know USDA is concerned.
6:54
SPEAKER_02: And we have about 50 percent of uh USDA employees being furloughed.
6:59
SPEAKER_02: That's that that's a lot of people.
7:01
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think I have a chart of that too, don't I?
7:03
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think we do.
7:04
SPEAKER_02: It's just yeah, right there.
7:05
SPEAKER_02: Well, yeah, these are by uh agencies within USDA.
7:09
SPEAKER_02: Look at Farm Service Agency.
7:11
SPEAKER_02: The purple is furloughed, that means not working, and the Aqua, I guess, or maybe blue.
7:19
SPEAKER_02: I like Aqua Aqua, yeah.
7:20
SPEAKER_02: Uh the uh that's exempt.
7:23
SPEAKER_02: So there's more than a few are still working over there, but a lot who are not, and that's the problem of uh implementing.
7:31
SPEAKER_02: You have to have people to actually implement some of these payments, and they're they're not there, they're not there.
7:37
SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
7:38
SPEAKER_00: All righty.
7:39
SPEAKER_00: Well, speaking of interesting, let's see what's next.
7:43
SPEAKER_00: We got it.
7:44
SPEAKER_00: Oh, I do have a question for you.
7:45
SPEAKER_00: Sure, okay.
7:47
SPEAKER_00: This I I don't even know what the heck I'm talking about here.
7:49
SPEAKER_00: But a farmer called me today, he said he got all his money for his payments, last 15, but the government held back one percent.
7:56
SPEAKER_00: What was he talking about?
7:57
SPEAKER_02: Well, that's I don't know about one percent.
7:59
SPEAKER_02: It was 14.
7:59
SPEAKER_02: Remember, they got 85.
8:02
SPEAKER_02: So they didn't hold back, they're just gonna pay for 99.
8:06
SPEAKER_00: That's the equal, they're not holding back.
8:08
SPEAKER_02: No, no, no.
8:09
SPEAKER_00: He expected, yeah.
8:11
SPEAKER_00: That's the 14th.
8:11
SPEAKER_00: What do we call that garbage in, garbage out?
8:15
SPEAKER_00: All right, thank you for clearing that.
8:16
SPEAKER_02: They wanted a hundred percent, but they got ninety-nine.
8:19
SPEAKER_02: Let me tell you if I get ninety-nine percent of anything, I'm happy.
8:23
SPEAKER_02: And and I'm a cynic, so I'm happy at 99.
8:27
SPEAKER_00: What's this bad boy?
8:29
SPEAKER_00: Website showdown.
8:30
SPEAKER_02: Oh, this is the funny politics of a shutdown.
8:34
SPEAKER_02: Now, it's not happy if you're not working and you want to check and things like that.
8:38
SPEAKER_02: So I fully understand the sensitivity on that, but it didn't take the Republicans long to fire off some some websites uh at the White House and at USDA is very aggressive.
8:51
SPEAKER_02: And I think we have a couple of them or or not, Tommy.
8:55
SPEAKER_00: Oh, on the charts of those?
8:56
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
8:57
SPEAKER_00: Oh, with the uh that pretty picture of Amtrak and stuff.
9:00
SPEAKER_02: Well, no, that's that's just the impacts of the uh of the government shutdown.
9:06
SPEAKER_02: But the websites of the White House just we'll have to talk our way through.
9:10
SPEAKER_02: Okay, the White House squarely put it on uh oh, I see it here in your notes.
9:16
SPEAKER_00: This one I'll read it to you.
9:18
SPEAKER_00: Due to the radical left democrat shutdown, the government website will not be updated.
9:23
SPEAKER_02: That one, yeah, that's from you.
9:24
SPEAKER_02: That's on USDA's website.
9:26
SPEAKER_00: Dear Lord, is that even legal?
9:28
SPEAKER_02: That's pretty all that all all is fair and love and politics.
9:32
SPEAKER_02: Okay, so yeah, and the White House has it on their main page, but now the Democrats is are trying to counter with some odd graphics, I think, of a of a cat.
9:43
SPEAKER_02: I I just can't understand where they're going.
9:46
SPEAKER_02: And Governor uh Newsom, Democrat governor from California, has a countdown of how long the Republican shutdown is lasting.
9:55
SPEAKER_02: So you can see his spin on that one.
9:57
SPEAKER_02: It's just there's they're and all this is happening to get the spin on who Americans voters are gonna blame for this shutdown.
10:08
SPEAKER_02: Now, I will tell you there were there was a Wall Street Journal story today that the White House and some Republican lawmakers are getting nervous about this health care provision because they're they're thinking that the majority will blame the Republicans, even though the Republicans want a clean, want a clean bill relative to getting the government back.
10:35
SPEAKER_02: And it's usually not the case.
10:37
SPEAKER_02: It's usually the Republicans asking for something to keep the government open.
10:42
SPEAKER_02: If you recall when Trump was in when they shut down the government, they wanted they wanted funding for the wall, they wanted to delete Obamacare.
10:52
SPEAKER_02: This was all the Republicans asked when they shut down the government.
10:56
SPEAKER_02: This time, the Republicans want a clean bill, and the Democrats are asking around, I think, 1.5 trillion with a T trillion dollars in increased funding in order to get their votes to pass the Senate.
11:13
SPEAKER_02: They're five votes away in the Senate, Tommy.
11:15
SPEAKER_02: We've wow.
11:16
SPEAKER_02: So, but three Democratic senators have already broken with their party leadership and have voted with the Republicans.
11:25
SPEAKER_02: They need five more, and that's where they're continuing to talk to get five more Democrats.
11:32
SPEAKER_02: I think eventually, I think by the end of next week, you know, we'll have the government open.
11:38
SPEAKER_02: I I hope I'm right there.
11:40
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
11:40
SPEAKER_00: I was gonna ask you, and you might not remember the longest the government's ever been closed.
11:45
SPEAKER_00: I want to say for some reason the 35 days, maybe 35, 40.
11:50
SPEAKER_00: Stock market earlier today, just side note, folks, Dow Jones was up 500 earlier.
11:55
SPEAKER_02: Uh, that's not exactly a market that's really uh scared or uh gives two licks that uh were shut down for no, they they know that although it hurts each day, you know, but uh overall, no, they're they're probably thinking what I just told you that uh so we we pretty much just covered this point, right, Jim?
12:13
SPEAKER_00: How long will the government shut up?
12:14
SPEAKER_02: They're covering it now.
12:15
SPEAKER_02: They're betting markets, you know.
12:17
SPEAKER_02: There's the betting markets on it.
12:19
SPEAKER_02: Now the betting markets are thinking it could last about 10 days when I really read read the betting markets, and at least that's the consensus view.
12:28
SPEAKER_02: I would I think how this is gonna end is that the Democrats want it in writing that they're going to do something on Obamacare, their Obamacare asked.
12:40
SPEAKER_02: Usually that signals that on the uh a House and Senate floor there'll be a colleague soliloquies on by all leaders of what they're going, what they've agreed to.
12:52
SPEAKER_02: And I think you'll see that sometime next week.
12:56
SPEAKER_02: And if if everybody's in agreement, then they'll have a vote and we'll get the government uh you know back.
13:03
SPEAKER_02: But how far do the Republicans go relative to the Obamacare?
13:09
SPEAKER_02: Because they may have a problem with uh really right-wing Republicans in the House who don't want to give hardly anything, if at all, on Obamacare.
13:19
SPEAKER_02: So this is not a hundred percent that that uh it will occur.
13:24
SPEAKER_00: Now, this is the part that uh I know so many of our viewers and listeners are very much agg-related.
13:30
SPEAKER_00: Farmer aid program.
13:31
SPEAKER_00: What can you tell us about that?
13:32
SPEAKER_02: I spent a lot of time on this one, and I think I almost understand what they're going to do.
13:40
SPEAKER_02: Now, I don't think you'll have a uh uh uh Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said uh uh on a CNBC show that a uh trade aid uh plan could be announced as soon as Tuesday next week.
13:57
SPEAKER_02: Yes, that's it.
13:58
SPEAKER_02: Yes.
13:58
SPEAKER_02: And but I think the government's gonna have to be open for them to actually announce it.
14:04
SPEAKER_02: But now hear me out on this one.
14:07
SPEAKER_02: I think we're gonna have farmer aid in two phases.
14:10
SPEAKER_02: Okay, one will be what the White House eventually announces, anywhere from 10 billion to 14 billion dollars, and that'll be primarily as a result of one country, China.
14:23
SPEAKER_02: Because when you look at US ag exports, they're tracking pretty close for other countries, exports, but not to China.
14:32
SPEAKER_02: So we could have an announcement of 10 to 14 billion dollars.
14:36
SPEAKER_02: The Wall Street Journal reported that, but they're gonna call that trade aid, but they'll probably, when they do announce it, put an economic spin on it.
14:44
SPEAKER_02: Where they're going to get the money, the funding, I think four to five billion dollars will come from the Commodity Credit Corporation.
14:51
SPEAKER_02: That's what remains, that's not obligated for other payments.
14:55
SPEAKER_02: And yeah, they're gonna figure some other way, and you know, the government can look in drawers and five billions of dollars to be blunt.
15:03
SPEAKER_02: So it looks like 10 to 14 billion dollars for perspective.
15:10
SPEAKER_02: Uh first administration, Trump 1.0, we had 12 billion dollars in China trade war payments the first year, and then the second year, 2019, we had 16 billion.
15:22
SPEAKER_02: So a total of 28 billion, but that was over two years.
15:26
SPEAKER_02: So if the 12 billion dollars, you know, that's right in that range, right?
15:30
SPEAKER_02: The 10 to 14 billion dollars that the Wall Street Journal speculated on based on sources, so it could be that now.
15:39
SPEAKER_02: If it's China related again, soybeans, uh sorghum, and cotton and some other come on cherries in California will get payments.
15:49
SPEAKER_02: I'm not so sure about corn.
15:51
SPEAKER_02: We have record corn really, yeah.
15:54
SPEAKER_02: I'm not quite, you know, the first uh trade war payments uh corn, you know, yeah, car producers didn't get hardly anything.
16:01
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it was it's wasn't that something stupid like a penny.
16:04
SPEAKER_02: It was, it wasn't that a cheap or or whatever it was, it was yeah, per bushel and that it was and something similar to that.
16:12
SPEAKER_02: So they would look to Congress uh for a another economic aid package.
16:20
SPEAKER_02: Remember, we had on December 21st last year, Congress passed uh twofold$10 billion in economic aid.
16:29
SPEAKER_02: That was the ECAP program that they just paid the other 14% on, uh 99%, and then they announced around$21 billion in ag disaster payments.
16:40
SPEAKER_02: Now, what's gonna happen is Republican lawmakers are already penciling out what they could propose, and I think it'll come under probably Section 5 authority under the Commodity Credit Corporation when it's eventually done.
16:57
SPEAKER_02: When will that occur?
16:58
SPEAKER_02: I it's not gonna be right away.
17:00
SPEAKER_02: I think it'll take until the end of year spending bill as an add-on.
17:06
SPEAKER_02: And I I've heard all sorts of uh levels as far as aid, but it'll be above whatever the White House announces.
17:14
SPEAKER_02: Okay.
17:15
SPEAKER_00: That'll be interesting.
17:16
SPEAKER_02: And but now then you have to see what will the Democrats go along with that?
17:20
SPEAKER_02: Or do will they want to extract appendages to that in order to sign off on this additional spending?
17:27
SPEAKER_02: Now, I think farm state lawmakers from democratic states should sign on, but will the leadership so that's not a hundred percent that they can get that that types of billions of dollars in phase two, even though I my hunch would say that it'll eventually happen because the economic aid uh is there.
17:47
SPEAKER_02: So two phases for farmer aid.
17:49
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, there's the fearless leaders and Dick Derman from Illinois, Schumer from New York, and now the Republicans say the reason why Schumer did not go along with the clean um continuing resolution or stop gap spending measure is he's worried uh in 2028 when he's up for re-election that he's gonna be uh challenged by AOC, uh Ocasio Cortez, and that's why he's gonna appear to be very strong against the White House and against the Republicans in Congress.
18:23
SPEAKER_02: So that's where we're at politically on this one.
18:26
SPEAKER_00: So very interesting.
18:27
SPEAKER_00: I got a little breaking news tweet, if you don't mind me interjecting here.
18:31
SPEAKER_00: All right, I'll read it to the crowd.
18:33
SPEAKER_00: This is from Senator John Hovind.
18:35
SPEAKER_00: It's a little uh seven-minute video that was just released on X.
18:39
SPEAKER_00: It's time to end the Schumer shutdown.
18:41
SPEAKER_00: We need to reopen the government, deliver disaster aid to farmers, and push back on China's pressure tactics.
18:48
SPEAKER_00: Let's pass a clean CR and get back to work for the American people.
18:54
SPEAKER_00: That is Senator John Hovind from the great state of North Dakota.
18:57
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
18:58
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, he's appropriate, he's big kingman and appropriate checkbook in the past.
19:03
SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
19:04
SPEAKER_02: Let's go through that a little bit now.
19:06
SPEAKER_02: This is China, yes, because they're the reason for this.
19:12
SPEAKER_02: And yes, Trump is going to meet as well.
19:15
SPEAKER_02: We know now, at the end of this month at the in South Korea, he's gonna meet with Xi Jinping.
19:22
SPEAKER_02: Now, Scott Besson has already said that soybeans are gonna be a big ask uh for by Trump, like saying to China, you need to buy some US soybeans.
19:34
SPEAKER_02: My point in this is what's China gonna ask?
19:37
SPEAKER_02: What does Xi Jinping want?
19:39
SPEAKER_02: Because he's already given to a degree on TikTok, and if they agree on purchasing U.S.
19:45
SPEAKER_02: soybeans, how much, when, uh that's still to be determined.
19:50
SPEAKER_02: What's he gonna want?
19:52
SPEAKER_00: Very interesting.
19:53
SPEAKER_02: What's he gonna want?
19:53
SPEAKER_02: And that could get into geopolitics, it could get into Taiwan, etc.
19:58
SPEAKER_02: And even if we have a trade agreement with China, I know the last time how long that took to get it done.
20:05
SPEAKER_02: So that's why this bridge payment relative to China is gonna have to take place.
20:11
SPEAKER_02: Because when you negotiate with China, the only country that takes longer is India to get any agreement, if you ever get an agreement with India.
20:20
SPEAKER_02: So that's what's in the making.
20:22
SPEAKER_02: Now, if they were as a good faith going into this late October, first few days of November in South Korea meeting, China could uh do a good good faith uh purchase of U.S.
20:36
SPEAKER_02: soybeans.
20:37
SPEAKER_00: Okay, that would be great.
20:38
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it wouldn't hurt, but when do they need the beans?
20:41
SPEAKER_02: Because you know that uh combination of Brazil and Argentina, they're almost filled in their soybean needs almost through the end of this year.
20:51
SPEAKER_02: So we're really talking next year, Tommy, in my judgment.
20:55
SPEAKER_02: Here's another side story.
20:57
SPEAKER_02: Why has Scott Bessant, the Treasury Secretary, been so open about this trade aid coming?
21:04
SPEAKER_02: Well, he's he's one of the top economic advisors to uh Trump.
21:08
SPEAKER_02: That's one reason.
21:09
SPEAKER_02: But the other one is he's taken holy H from the proposed uh$20 billion bond swap to backstop Argentina.
21:20
SPEAKER_02: Well, if you recall, we talked about that in the prior podcast and said the American Soybean Association was very upset about saying, hey, wait a minute, but what about us?
21:30
SPEAKER_02: You know, what about us?
21:31
SPEAKER_02: Senator Chuck Grassley, Republican uh from Iowa, lambasted like saying, you need to look to the U.S.
21:38
SPEAKER_02: farmer.
21:38
SPEAKER_02: I think uh Scott Bessett has been so out in front because he he wants to temper some of the negatives that he's been getting in the press about that Argentine proposal.
21:50
SPEAKER_02: So there's a cause and effect here.
21:53
SPEAKER_02: The other official from the Trump administration I really listened to is uh the National Economic Uh Council director, Hassett, because he's he also said this week that there's billions and billions of dollars is the exact quote that they uh have in order to get a trade-related payment.
22:17
SPEAKER_02: Now, here's another angle to this trade aid, Tommy.
22:21
SPEAKER_02: Again, we've talked a little about it in the past.
22:24
SPEAKER_02: President Trump always says you can tap the the uh the billions of dollars in trade tariff revenue that's coming in.
22:34
SPEAKER_02: But when you look at the at the legislation embodying that, it's not necessarily the case where you can move that money from the Treasury Department, that's where the tariff revenue goes, into a direct farmer payment.
22:49
SPEAKER_02: So I think that may need congressional legislation, unless they have very creative lawyers in the Trump administration that has found that have found a way in order to tap this trade uh revenue as a direct uh farmer payment.
23:08
SPEAKER_02: I have my doubts, but I never rule out creative lawyers.
23:13
SPEAKER_00: I like creative lawyers and accountants and whatnot.
23:16
SPEAKER_00: Hey, uh, we had a little surprise, Mr.
23:18
SPEAKER_00: Wiesmeyer, this week.
23:19
SPEAKER_00: The USDA really gave us, they said the American farmers are awesome at growing corn, and we have plenty of it.
23:26
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they increased uh the 2024 crop a tad.
23:30
SPEAKER_02: I think what 24 million bushels.
23:32
SPEAKER_02: I may be wrong on that.
23:33
SPEAKER_02: But then demand, remember, demand sometimes is subjective.
23:37
SPEAKER_02: It's unlike soybeans where we have data checks, but feed demand and well, we have exports data check, it was less than expected.
23:45
SPEAKER_02: So stocks went up.
23:46
SPEAKER_02: And look at here's the numbers that you look at USDA at 1.53 to billion bushels.
23:54
SPEAKER_02: The average trade guesstimate was around just shy of 200 million bushels less than that.
24:01
SPEAKER_02: So USDA surprised on stocks to the upside, they were higher.
24:07
SPEAKER_02: Now that's a bearish number.
24:08
SPEAKER_02: I don't care any way you look at it.
24:10
SPEAKER_02: Now we we we went down for a few days, if I recall, but then we've rallied back pretty good, Tommy, right?
24:17
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, corn.
24:18
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we've had uh, yeah, and soybeans actually finished the uh week higher.
24:22
SPEAKER_00: And corn and wheat looked over at soybeans going up and said, Hell with it, we got to go up too.
24:27
SPEAKER_00: So it was not a I gotta tell you, Jim, with the United States government closed, with China going on holiday next week, with all the BS going on and with harvest going on, full-blown harvest pressure.
24:40
SPEAKER_00: The uh here's what's going on all across rural America, right here.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: I think grains did incredibly well this week.
24:48
SPEAKER_00: I I agree with you.
24:49
SPEAKER_00: I think sometimes when guys like you and I get on, you know, we could seem like we're down, government shut China, but really there was a lot of great things that happened this week.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: And depending on what political party you're in or spin, yeah, sure, you can make it seem like America, the world's ending.
25:04
SPEAKER_00: But I gotta tell you something, Jim.
25:06
SPEAKER_00: I went to Laney Wilson concert last night in Nashville.
25:10
SPEAKER_00: Yes, it was packed, it was sold out, and then Ella Langley.
25:14
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I saw pictures of it.
25:15
SPEAKER_00: Ella Langley came on stage with her, jelly roll came on stage with their Broadway was packed.
25:21
SPEAKER_00: How late it was packed, you know, me being responsible, knowing I had to film We Smares Perspectives went home, but it was going on.
25:28
SPEAKER_00: America's booming.
25:29
SPEAKER_00: Now, I'm sitting in downtown Nashville in a high-rise.
25:33
SPEAKER_00: That the American economy is good, not for everyone, yeah, but for a lot of us.
25:39
SPEAKER_02: Yes, my friend Sean Haney, I think you know him in Canada.
25:43
SPEAKER_02: He was at the concert last week.
25:46
SPEAKER_02: Yes, uh, he sent me pictures.
25:48
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, gun.
25:49
SPEAKER_02: Is he still in town?
25:50
SPEAKER_02: He he and his wife, he probably is.
25:52
SPEAKER_02: I think he because he wasn't on agri talk today.
25:55
SPEAKER_00: Let's post his number here on the uh bottom give Sean Amy a couple.
26:00
SPEAKER_02: Here's the one on the on the corn.
26:02
SPEAKER_02: See, I'm from Illinois, so I have to watch how I say corn because Illinois says corn.
26:06
SPEAKER_00: Illinois, how many S's at the end of Illinois?
26:10
SPEAKER_00: You never hear someone do that.
26:12
SPEAKER_02: I still say the kitchen zinc.
26:14
SPEAKER_02: Okay, so that's my Illinois coming back at me.
26:16
SPEAKER_02: But anyway, will we have an October crop production report?
26:21
SPEAKER_02: Uh, it's looking less so because of uh, unless they there maybe would be a chance that they had an agreement over the weekend, but I want to hear that from NAS.
26:32
SPEAKER_02: But it looks like uh this estimate is as of October one.
26:36
SPEAKER_02: So I I don't know how much advanced work that NAS did.
26:41
SPEAKER_02: So we may not have an October crop production report to see whether or not the size of that corn crop has gone lower relative to all these disease and other problems that the general farm media are are pointing out, Tommy.
26:57
SPEAKER_02: So that means the private estimates not on site are gonna be uh important, right?
27:03
SPEAKER_00: Like ADP jobs report, for example.
27:06
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yes, right, yeah, oh yeah, absolutely, because we didn't have the jobs report this morning.
27:11
SPEAKER_02: I'm already geared up on always geared up on jobs report day to have the impact short-term, long-term.
27:17
SPEAKER_02: We we we didn't have it, so yeah, we're flying blind, and that means the Federal Reserve too, in their October Federal Open Market Committee, but they have other data data sources.
27:30
SPEAKER_02: So I I you know I think that they can do their work and the the financial futures market clearly signal another 25 basis point cut in interest rates.
27:40
SPEAKER_02: And I uh while that's not 100% given it looks to be the case because the job job new jobs is a little weak right now because of all the uncertainty.
27:52
SPEAKER_02: I think once we get through the the trade uh morass and these tariffs, we get the Supreme Court ruling on whether or not Trump was on legal grounds to do those uh tariffs uh because he used emergency authority.
28:07
SPEAKER_02: We'll know that either late this year or early next year.
28:11
SPEAKER_02: We want a little more uh certainty with US-China relations.
28:15
SPEAKER_02: You know, at least that's coming in the near horizon.
28:19
SPEAKER_02: So once we get through with that, then you're gonna see businesses can plan, they can hire more people, they can come out with different products.
28:28
SPEAKER_02: But right now, I think a number of companies are on hold, wanting some answers.
28:33
SPEAKER_00: That makes sense.
28:34
SPEAKER_00: That makes sense.
28:35
SPEAKER_00: Let's head out to uh your buddy over here, Mr.
28:38
SPEAKER_00: Newsom.
28:38
SPEAKER_00: What's what's he what's gavin newsome?
28:40
SPEAKER_02: Well, we have good news for corn because California was the only state that had not approved uh uh E-15.
28:47
SPEAKER_02: We've got that out of the way.
28:49
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, but now the the key there is when will they actually sell E15?
28:56
SPEAKER_02: Do we have some of the reasons in the in a in a chart or not?
29:01
SPEAKER_00: No, didn't didn't it didn't make the uh cutting room as easy in Hollywood.
29:05
SPEAKER_00: Okay, okay.
29:07
SPEAKER_00: But I can read them to you.
29:08
SPEAKER_02: Would you like to well no let me go through the the the big one is infrastructure?
29:14
SPEAKER_02: Most stations are not yet certified.
29:16
SPEAKER_02: I don't care what the carn growers tell me, they're not they're not yet certified, and compatible hardware exists, you well listed pumps and tanks, but approvals, Tommy, and fire marshal certifications are required.
29:31
SPEAKER_02: That takes time.
29:32
SPEAKER_02: Then another one is I have here carbon environment review.
29:36
SPEAKER_02: Well, the the refiners and distributors, they have to retool the blending storage for for E15.
29:43
SPEAKER_02: Some terminals have begun the upgrades, I was told, but coverage is limited.
29:48
SPEAKER_02: That takes time, but at least it's in progress.
29:50
SPEAKER_02: Pending EPA labels exist, but California specific dispenser labeling has not yet been finalized by California's carb.
30:02
SPEAKER_02: So now here's here's here's one of the key California's carb is going To have a meeting October 14th, they set a workshop, so we're gonna see how that turns out because they're going to have a public comment period after that workshop on E15.
30:23
SPEAKER_02: And the public comment period goes from October 14th to November the 12th this year.
30:29
SPEAKER_02: What's the bottom line?
30:30
SPEAKER_02: Why am I saying all this?
30:32
SPEAKER_02: I I think it's gonna take into 2026, maybe well into 2026, before we see a significant, now hear me correct, a significant availability of E15 in California, which is a big market, but it's coming.
30:48
SPEAKER_02: We just but watch carb, watch carb.
30:51
SPEAKER_00: That's interesting.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: Real quick, while uh you were speaking, we had some breaking news.
30:55
SPEAKER_00: I don't know how much you know about it, but we'll just talk about it.
30:57
SPEAKER_00: Trump considering uh significant tariff relief for uh U.S.
31:01
SPEAKER_00: auto production, Republican senator.
31:03
SPEAKER_00: Uh, how would he pronounce it?
31:05
SPEAKER_00: Morano says, Morano.
31:06
SPEAKER_02: Uh Trump Senator, yeah.
31:09
SPEAKER_02: Well, because there's a number of plants in Ohio, so I can understand.
31:13
SPEAKER_02: Uh Trump has got pushback under some of the trucks and some of the exemptions that he gave a number of countries.
31:20
SPEAKER_02: So he's having to uh double up here and give financial aid to certain of the uh uh auto sectors, and that's a big, big political importance in the uh manufacturing, in the jobs, etc.
31:33
SPEAKER_02: So I'm not surprised that that he's doing some economic aid for that sector as well.
31:39
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
31:40
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
31:41
SPEAKER_00: Jim Wiesmeyer, we're listening to Weissmeyer's Perspectives.
31:44
SPEAKER_00: I'm Tommy Grassaffee.
31:45
SPEAKER_00: We want to take a moment for station identification and promote Mr.
31:49
SPEAKER_00: Weesmeier.
31:50
SPEAKER_00: I know you like him because you're watching the show.
31:53
SPEAKER_00: If you'd like to be on his newsletter right there, Weismeyer at Gmail.
31:58
SPEAKER_00: Handsome alert.
31:58
SPEAKER_00: We'll get some sound effects where we ring a bell.
32:01
SPEAKER_00: I might even have a bell.
32:02
SPEAKER_00: Let me try.
32:03
SPEAKER_00: Well, there you go.
32:05
SPEAKER_00: We smire at gmail.
32:07
SPEAKER_00: All right.
32:07
SPEAKER_02: And a number of listeners and viewers have already uh asked me, and hopefully, if I haven't put you on my list, you should be getting my newsletter.
32:16
SPEAKER_02: If not, email me right back at uh the email.
32:19
SPEAKER_02: That was my last name at gmail.com.
32:22
SPEAKER_02: And this is my give back to the industry that has been so good to me for five decades.
32:27
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
32:28
SPEAKER_00: Now, here's my little sales pitch.
32:31
SPEAKER_00: I got a new website up, www.agbull.com.
32:35
SPEAKER_00: We do commodity brokerage and we have an information video tech service where we uh put out a lot of other content.
32:41
SPEAKER_00: You see Wees Meyer's perspectives, but there's a lot of videos we do that we don't let out to the general public.
32:46
SPEAKER_00: And what that is called is this service right here.
32:50
SPEAKER_00: You go to www.agbull and you go to agbull intel monthly or agbull intel annually, and you can get signed up for that.
32:57
SPEAKER_00: I think it's pretty affordable, Jim.
32:59
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that's asking too much for someone to pay$25 a month.
33:03
SPEAKER_02: No, that's a lot less than my beer tab at my my bar.
33:07
SPEAKER_00: I like that.
33:08
SPEAKER_00: I like that.
33:09
SPEAKER_00: Speaking of beer tabs and bars, back in the day when I was a kid uh working at the Board of Trade, remember the restaurant series?
33:16
SPEAKER_00: Yes, uh you used to just sign your bill and they would series and traders and brokers at the restaurants, they would just send you a uh a bill at the end of the month.
33:25
SPEAKER_00: And no further bills.
33:26
SPEAKER_00: There's nothing like that anymore, huh?
33:29
SPEAKER_02: My local bar here, where we have what I call thirst thirsty Thursdays, where I meet with my city folk to try to meet.
33:41
SPEAKER_00: Emergency uh meetings and Thursdays, yeah.
33:43
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but at least I walk to it, it's right around the corner from my house.
33:48
SPEAKER_01: That's called dangerous.
33:49
SPEAKER_00: Being responsible.
33:50
SPEAKER_00: Hey, uh, real quick before we get out of here, is there anything we could expect over the weekend?
33:55
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna get the show bundled up.
33:56
SPEAKER_00: It's Friday afternoon, it'll be out by 3, 3:30.
33:59
SPEAKER_00: You can let all your good listeners and I want to thank your listeners and viewers, they've been coming over to the Eggbow Podcast, clicking, liking, and subscribing.
34:05
SPEAKER_00: But good.
34:06
SPEAKER_02: There could be an agreement uh between the Democrats and Republicans.
34:09
SPEAKER_02: I'm not gonna rule that out because they're talking.
34:12
SPEAKER_02: And you've heard me say before: as long as you're talking, there's a possibility of success.
34:18
SPEAKER_02: And number two, we we may be able to find out more on this coming trade-related aid to get a little bit more specific.
34:28
SPEAKER_02: So there you listen to Scott Bessent, you know, uh, and the NEC director Hassett, and then USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins.
34:39
SPEAKER_02: I think uh just be on the lookout for some of those comments.
34:43
SPEAKER_02: But it's not a question of if it's coming, it's when and and how much and how they're gonna be funded, as we've already talked about.
34:50
SPEAKER_02: And and then the second phase, I think is gonna be up to Congress later this year under the true economic aid, and then that'll that'll cover a lot more commodities.
35:01
SPEAKER_02: I think this first one, trade-related, is gonna be China-centric, and it's gonna be for those commodities who've lost market share as a result of China pulling back from the U.S.
35:13
SPEAKER_02: market, soybeans, sorghum, cotton, cherries, and a number of other commodities.
35:19
SPEAKER_00: Very interesting.
35:20
SPEAKER_00: Very interesting.
35:21
SPEAKER_00: All right, we're gonna end the show this way.
35:22
SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
35:23
SPEAKER_00: Do you love America?
35:24
SPEAKER_00: I love America.
35:25
SPEAKER_00: I love the stars, yeah.
35:27
SPEAKER_00: If you uh if you listened all the way to the end, you call 1-855-737-Farm or email us or go to www.agbull.com.
35:34
SPEAKER_00: I got two free flags, three by five American-made flags we want to give away to the listeners of Wiesmeyer's perspectives.
35:42
SPEAKER_00: And with that, Mr.
35:42
SPEAKER_00: Jim Wiesmeyer is the star of the show.
35:44
SPEAKER_00: He came prepared.
35:46
SPEAKER_00: Jim, I will see you next week.
35:47
SPEAKER_00: If there's breaking news, folks, you've got to get signed up for Jim's newsletter because he'll get it out to you.
35:52
SPEAKER_00: He'll be pumping out content all weekend.
35:56
SPEAKER_00: See ya, my friend.
35:57
SPEAKER_00: See ya.