Latest / Toadstool Sports / TUESDAY BEST BETS | College Basketball Conference Tournaments & NHL & NBA | 3/10/26

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TUESDAY BEST BETS | College Basketball Conference Tournaments & NHL & NBA | 3/10/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all all in
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season. Man with
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm I'm going to
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: burn my browins hack Man, I don't know what is
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: going on with the Bruins arch Haape? Is that what
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: it is? I don't even know it's March ninth, I
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: think who even knows? Man, I don't know what data
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: is anymore. But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: about this anymore. To the slumpers, the slump discontinuous, the
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: know what I should do at this point, other than
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed back
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Tuesday, March tenth,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: That's what it is. March eighth, March ninth. Uh slight
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: win on the show yesterday. If you sprinkle underdog money
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: lines like I recommend that you do. I told you
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Santa Clara is gonna win the game out right. We
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: lost on Robert Morris, fuck them, blowing a six point
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: lead almost immediately in the middle of the second half
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: and then never coming back. Santa Clara outright win. So
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: made it an okay day. Good thing. I added that
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: to the card. Trying to be selective here. The big
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: conference tournaments start with their opening rounds. As you know,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the madness really starts to ramp up here. I'm gonna
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: give out one college basketball play. You already know what
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: it is because I gave it to you last night.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about it. It's not really the greatest number,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: but I still think it's worthy. And then I'm gonna
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: give out one hockey playoff a few hockey leans. There's
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: some games that I like in hockey that just don't
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: quite get there for me. I got one play, you
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: probably won't guess what it is. And then I will
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: give up one NBA play and you probably won't guess
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: that one either. Actually, So that's how we're doing it.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: No to gems. What's up man? Thank you sir, thank
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: you for checking out the show. Baylor and ASU. All right,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: let's talk about it. That'll be the first game i'll
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: talk about. It's at twelve thirty. So I'm gonna do
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: it conference by conference, I guess, because that's what I
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: usually do. Just to kind of avoid confusion. I do
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: it in in chronological order. But conference by conference we'll
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: get the whole show will be done in plenty of time.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Uh Baylor in Arizona State. Baylor is up from three
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: point favorite to a four point favorite. My initial reaction
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: to this was like, I didn't know what the line
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: was gonna be. I knew Baylor was gonna be favored.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I'm like, well, Baylor's the better team, so I think
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: they should win this game. In fact, I think they're
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: a pretty underrated team. But looking at the market here,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: we got Baylor. The initial move move Baylor up to
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: a four point favorite. They got eighty five percent of
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the tickets on them, but only fifty six percent of
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the cash. So the market read is saying to take
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: the points of Arizona State, saying that that's where the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: money is coming back. I don't know, man, this is
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: not gonna be one of my plays. Baylor is the
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: better team. These teams did play once this year, I
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: believe once Baylor won only by five though at home.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: The other thing you do have to look at is like,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: what was the number when these teams played. Baylor was
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: actually an eight and a half point favorite in the
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: home game, and that would indicate that they should probably
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: be a heavier favorite than a four point favorite here.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: If they were eight eight and a half not that
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: long ago at home. It seems like this line is short.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I don't believe they played otherwise. I think that was
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: the only time they played this year. But then you
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: do have to also take into account. I believe Hurley
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: is fired now right, Let me see for Arizona State. Here,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Am I right about that? I'm not? Yeah, here, it
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: is possible send off. I think he did get fired, though,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: let me make sure that Bobby or Hurley, Arizona State's coach.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Hold on, I'm gonna look it up real quick. U
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: he's not gonna return. I believe he's going to coach
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: in this game. Though it looks like I don't think
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: he got fired. I think he stepped down. Let me see,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: this doesn't really say if he's going to coach this
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: game or not. I think he will. Yeah, So I
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: don't know. So that might motivate Arizona State a little bit,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: to be honest. So you know, I guess I will
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: lean slightly to Arizona State just because of that, because
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: they might be a little bit more motivated, just because
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: they don't want to set you know, they want to
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: send Early off. But maybe they don't like him because
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: he's a dick. I don't know, but I mean, he's
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: been there for a while. It seems like maybe the
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: team might want to step it up in a case
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: like this just to send him off. You know, I
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: would say, actually, both of these teams are better than
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: people think they are. You know these games are in
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Kansas City, by the way, so no real location edge
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: for either team here. I'll agree with the market and
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: slightly lean towards taking the four with the Arizona State,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: but I don't think there's a whole lot of line
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: value there, to be honest, Thank you, sir, I appreciate it. Yes, sir,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: I'm very selective man, So I'm gonna talk about like
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: all the games and give you know, kind of loose
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: opinions on them, but my strongest opinions are the plays
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: that I give out here. Mister Pinsey won on Troy. Yes,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: that was easy. I should have added it to my card,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: to be honest. I mean, when you have a rare
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: situation of a team playing a sixth game in six nights,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: and like I said, Troy was not at the same
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: disadvantage a lot of those other teams are at because
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Troy had already played a game in the tournament as
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: well on the other side, so they got used to
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: the venue again. They shook off the nerves, you know
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: what I mean, And Troy actually dominated Southern miss even
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: though the final score didn't look that way. Troy clearly
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: the better team as well, and they're unlike Marshall, Coastal whatever.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Those teams are bad. Those two specific teams really, especially
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Marshall not good on defense. Troy kind of is. So
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: that was definitely different there, Kyle, what's up not to gems? Yes? Oh,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: thank you, thank you, sir. Yeah, I mean, I don't
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: know about a tough defense, but Troy's defense is better
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: than a lot of those crappy defenses in that conference,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: including Georgia southerns Yes, sir, all right, Big twelve. We'll
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: continue with the Big Twelve. Utah is playing Cincinnati in
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the afternoon here. Cincinnati is up to an eleven and
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite in this one. Now, Cincinnati is
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: definitely the better team. I think Utah is legitimately the
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: worst team in this conference. In the Big Twelve, they
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: did finish on a huge losing streak, and sometimes I
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: will say these conference tournaments are kind of like a
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: reset where when you finish the season on a horrible note,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: sometimes you will just reset and you'll come out, you know,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: because you have nothing to look, you have nothing to lose.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: At this point of view, Utah just go out play loose,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: you know, try to put up a good performance and
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: in fact, they did actually play fairly well at Cincinnati
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: when they played them recently. They only lost by four.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: The issue with that is that Cincinnati might take them
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: more seriously because of that, because they'll remember that Cincinnati,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: by the way, they were twelve and a half way
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: favorites in that game, and they're almost favored by the
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: same amount here on a neutral So that would indicate
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: that the line in the game today is a little
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: bit big based on this, like it should probably not
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: be as high as it is if you consider this
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: line to have been accurate. Now, I believe Cincinnati was
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot in that game too well, they
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: had to look ahead to Kansas, I guess, a game
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: they wound up winning, by the way, So I think
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: they probably got caught looking ahead there and almost lost
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: to Utah. For that reason, Cincinnati has a motivational edge here,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: and I think that's actually what's jacking the line up
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: on Cincinnati is that everybody knows Cincinnati is like a
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: bubble team, and they got to win a couple of
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: games in this tournament, like they got to beat Utah
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: and then win another game or maybe two to maybe
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: even be in consideration here. But what that's gonna do
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: on a team like Cincinnati, who's clearly the better team,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: it's gonna make that line a little bit too big.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: And as you can see here, seventy one percent of
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on Cincinnati, but fifty two percent of
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: the cash on Utah. So I would actually lead to
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: taking the points with Utah in this one. I think
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: the lines just too high. I think Cincinnati will win
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: the game, but I would not lay those points. Cincinnati
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: is also not a very good offensive team, they're very
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: good on defense. The total's really low as well for
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: that reason. So I think Cincinnati will get through the game,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: but I wouldn't expect like a blowout win from them there,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: which is not something that they're really equipped to do necessarily.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: All Right, Big twelve Nights Slate, we have Kansas State
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: and BYU. BYU, despite being down their second best player, Saunders.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: BYU is up to ten and a half point favorite
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: in this one. BYU, you know, they should get into
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: the tournament even if they lose this game, and the
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: losing this game wouldn't help them really. This Kansas State
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: team is quite bad, but the spot's not very good
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: for BYU. BYU ended the season with a really good
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: win over Texas Tech, and I don't like that when
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: a team ends the season on a good note like that,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: like it could still put them kind of in a
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: letdown spot coming into this one. They already won the
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: one game they played at Kansas State, they beat them
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: by double digits, so they might not totally take Kansas
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: State seriously. Now, Kansas State, we don't know what we're
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: gonna get out of them. They're riding out the stretch here.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: They fired their coach not too long ago, which I
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: don't know if it really sparked them or not. They
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: did get a win against West Virginia in there. They
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: finished the season with a loss to Kansas on the road.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I mean pretty expected this Kansas State team. You know,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: the problem with them playing against BYU is that both
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: teams are kind of similar and that both teams like
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: to go fast. Teams are not very good on defense,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: so I you know, BYU is just better at it,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: so BYU should win the game. But I also wouldn't
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: lay the points. It's all, you know, the totals actually
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: gone down. So I actually think this game, I think
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: in over is maybe the way to look in this one.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Just the way these two teams match up like stylistically,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: the way these two teams play over makes sense to me.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: The total one sixty six seems doesn't even seem that
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: high to me, to be honest. Seventy one percent of
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on BYU for a side, there sixty
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on Kansas State. I'd agree
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: with taking the points to Kansas State. When you get
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: into games with totals that high, though, it gets a
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: little bit more iffy taking the points. So uh, probably
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: my preference in that one would be over and then
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State Colorado. In the later game here, Colorado down
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: from a two and a half point favorite to a
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: two point favorite. Public looks like they've come in and
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: call Colorado, which is odd. I thought the public would
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: come in on Oklahoma State because they pretty much have
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: had the better record than Colorado all season seventy five
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets and only fifty five percent of
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the cash on Colorado though, so the oddsmakers, I was
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: actually kind of surprised the line came out at two
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: and a half. I thought it might be like one
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: one and a half, like almost either way really, but
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: the odds makers telling you Colorado is actually surprisingly this
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: slightly better team, But now the money seems to be
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: coming in on Oklahoma State. You know, I think you
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: could argue Oklahoma State's resume is better this game. This
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: is probably the game that I have the least good
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: of a read on in this conference. I don't like
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: this game at all. Oklahoma State, Well, both teams actually
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: put up huge performances in their final games. Oklahoma State
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: almost beat Houston. I mean they were like tied with
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Houston in the final couple minutes of that game. They
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: wound up losing by seven. I watched the end of
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: that game, so I would really not want Oklahoma State
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: coming off of a game like that. But Colorado did
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: play fairly tough against Arizona as well, but they weren't
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: as close by the end of it. They lost by ten,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: and they were down pretty much double digits with probably
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: about four minutes to go in that game. So Oklahoma
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: State did put in the stronger effort in their games.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: So I actually kind of like Colorado in this game.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with the market there.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Colorado did beat Oklahoma State at home, but I don't
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: know how much you could how much weight you can
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: put into that they won by fourteen, but that's you know,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State going into a high elevation game in Colorado
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: probably not the best spot for Oklahoma State there. But
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: you know, because Colorado won that game, that might mean
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State would be the team to make the adjustments,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: right Like, you don't want to automatically say, oh, this
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: team beat this team once, that means it's going to
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: happen again, And in fact, a lot of times the
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: opposite can be true, especially if it's in quick succession,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: like with unfortunately Montana last night. Because I still thought
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Northern Colorado would win that game, that did not happen.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: All right, anyway, that's the big twelve breakdown there. Next up,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: we are going to go to the Swack because they
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: have an afternoon game at two pm. Al Corn State
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: with a surprise upset win last night. Steve McNair or
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: as alma mater. By the way, Alcorn State didn't play basketball,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think, only football. They pulled off the upset
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: yesterday in a pretty big way, winning by double digits
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: against an Alabama State team that was probably about a
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: seven point favorite. I think in that game. Now, Normally
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: you would say, well, that's gonna put them in a
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: letdown spot here, But tournaments are a little bit different. Man.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Every team's got motivation, every team's trying to win. Alcorn
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: State now has a game under their belt. These games
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: are all neutral site as well. They're all being played
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: in Atlanta or outside of Atlanta. Alcorn State won yesterday,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: and even though they did pull off the upset, I
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: think it does give them an advantage to some extent
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: because you're not gonna be that tired yet. Even though
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: you're playing a back to back, you know, you've only
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: played one game, you had some days off before that game,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: and you get adjusted to the venue. So a team
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: that just played a game actually has an edge. Prairie
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: View A and M here has not played yet in
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: the tournament, and these teams faced off near the end
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: of the season in Prairie View won with ease by
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: twenty one points at prairie View close to the end
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: of the season, So that result could mislead you a
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: little bit. Maybe. I know Alcorn sucks, there's no doubt
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: about it. They're a really bad team. They're not the
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: better team here either, But I think that they might
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: make some adjustments off of that loss. I think the
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: fact they have this game under the belt is actually
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: a positive more than a negative. And I think it's
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: more of a negative that prairie View has to come
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: into this with some additional time off. They haven't played
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: yet in the tournament, and they finished the season winning
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: three games in a row. So I actually would lean
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: to Alcorn in this game. Let me see here, prairie
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: View is up to a six and a half point favorite.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: By the way, The other thing that is really interesting
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: about this is this line seems way off. And I
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: don't know the personnel on these teams at all, so
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know if there's an injury or what. But
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: looking at this game where prairie View was at home
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: like three games ago, this game was on February twenty eighth,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: prairie View at home was a four and a half
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: point favorite, and now they're links six on a neutral
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: What the hell is going on with that line? How
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: could the line be bigger on a neutral court than
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: it was at home for Prairie View. Now I know
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: these teams have like zero home court advantage, so you know,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: all right, So all right, so the line today should
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: probably be about the same than four and a half.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: The fact that it's six is very strange to me,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: So I think there is actually line value on how
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: court stayed as well. So yeah, I would take the
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: points with Alcorn and that one. They're an awful team,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: but that's probably one of the stronger opinions I have
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: on the I don't really want to put that on
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: my card, but that is what I think about that game.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: And then the other game in the swack is I
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: think there are only two, let me see, is Grambling
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: State and Jackson State. And I told you Grambling is
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: the better of these two teams significantly. So even though
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: this is Grambling is the nine seed and Jackson State
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: is I don't even know what seed they are, but
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: they're a higher seed than Grambling is. Grambling had to
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: play yesterday. But Grambling is like the best deepense in
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: this entire conference. So the fact they got a nine
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: seed is really really mislead and Grambling is a lot
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: better than that. And as you can see the they're
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: now an eight point favorite the open five and a
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: half for six and it's already up to eight. So
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: there's been steam on Grambling here and I agree with it.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards laying the points with Grambling in
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: this one. Eight is getting a little pricey though. Fifty
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets eighty five percent of the cash on Grambling. Yeah,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: I would worry that that line is just a bit
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: too high. But Grambling they're the better team here. It's
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: a misleading set up here because they're the lesser seed.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Like I said, so when you see the lesser seed
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: being that much of a favorite, that is something you
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: got to pay attention to, because the oddsmakers are telling you, like,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: don't pay attention to the seeding here at all. The
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: seeding is actually wrong. Grambling won easily yet last night
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: against Mississippi Valley. Mississippi Valley State they're the worst team
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: in Division One, so Grambling they basically had like a
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: tune up in that game. But that's good because they
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: got a game out of the way in the tournament,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: just like I said with Alcorn. But this is better
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: for Grahamley because they had an easy game. They were
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: a favorite. They won, they actually covered, but it was
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: just an easy game. So they get that game out
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: of the way, get the nerves out of the way,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: you get adjusted to the venue. Jackson State has not
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: done that yet. They haven't played in the tournament yet.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: They finished the season on a two game win streak,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: also finishing by beating Mississippi Valley, but you know that
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: momentum could be stopped a little bit by the fact
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: that they had some time off. Now, these two teams
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: did play each other during the regular season, Grambling one
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: at Jackson's State by three. It looks like that was
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the only time they played. I might be missing something,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: but I think so. But Grambling, I'm assuming they were
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: a favorite on the road in that game. They're just
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: the better team, man. You know, I would lean towards
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: laying it with Grambling, but eight again is a little
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: bit too much of a price. I would say. Historical
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: spreads and totals, I haven't found one that like makes
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: it like really easy to see them in like a
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: good way. But you can find them on this site
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: on pregame, which is what I use every day. If
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: you go, you can select any date you want here.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: But the issue is, like you pick a date, you know,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: you have to use this stupid date selector. So if
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: you want to go back like years ago, it makes
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: it a little bit difficult. I don't know. You if
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: you c come one of the dates, see if it
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: adds anything to the URL, and you might be able
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: to like manually update the URL with a different date.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I'm not sure if it does, because
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: it might just use JavaScript behind the scenes and not
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: update the URL. Uh So, I don't know. All right,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: let me see what else we got. Uh So that
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: was the swack. The ACC starts at two pm with
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: pitt and Stanford. These games are in Charlotte, North Carolina.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Could be a weird venue for these specific coast teams,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: you know, having to now play on the East Coast again,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: although of course they all did it at some point
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: this year, but it's still kind of weird for them.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: Now for Stanford, everybody knows Stanford's a bubble team. Now, oh,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: they got twenty wins, you know, everybody like pretty much.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: I think the public is gonna be trying to bet
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Stanford here because they know, Oh, Stanford's gonna have a
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: huge motivation here because they gotta They're trying to make
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: the tournament now that they've won four games in a row.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: But that's kind of the problem. They've won four games
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: in a row. They just finished the season beating NC State,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: which is a huge win and upset on the road. Now,
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: I wonder do you think Stanford stayed in North Carolina
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: knowing that the ACC Tournament was gonna be here. Did
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: they just stay in North Carolina? Because that would actually
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: help them a little bit if they did, because they
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: were at NC State. It wouldn't really make sense to
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: fly back to Stanford when you know you're gonna be
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: in the ACC Tournament, right, So my guests would be
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: that they did stay here. But having days off is
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: gonna hurt their momentum a little bit. I think with
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: four wins in a row, they're coming off a huge win.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Everybody's talking about how they're a bubble team now and
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Pitt sucks, so nobody's gonna want Pitt here. Pitt did
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: finish the season with a win at Syracuse. Pitt did
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: play Stanford a few games prior to that lost at Stanford,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: But you know, Pitt having to play on the Pacific Coast,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: you don't expect them to win that game. They only
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: lost by eight, which isn't too bad. Stanford laying a
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: lot of points I think in this game. Let me
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: see it's less than I thought. Actually five and a
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: half eighty eight percent of the tickets and cash on Stanford,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: though it really looks pretty easy to lay it with Stanford,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: you know, So I wouldn't do that. I would take
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: the points of Pitt. Like I've been saying, When you
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: have these teams that everybody knows this team is on
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: the bubble and whatever, and they're gonna give you motivation,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: you want to find spots where that team is an
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: underdog against the team it's better than they are. You
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: don't want to play them as a favorite because you're
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: not really getting any value doing it. They'll usually be
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: jacked up as a favorite, like the line will be
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: too high, you know what I mean. So yeah, I
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: would probably take the points with Pitt here. And if
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Stafford actually loses that game, yeah, they're not gonna make
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the tournament. I don't know if they're gonna make it anyway,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: they're gonna have to make a run here. But you know,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: it also does put the pressure on a team like that.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: The reason why I liked Santa Clara last night was, Yeah,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: they're a bubble team, but they were an underdog against
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: the team that's considered to be better than they are,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: and they already had played game in that tournament, you
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. So the setup was different for
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Santa Clara last night. All right, other games in the ACC,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: Syracuse and SMU are playing same thing. With SMU. Everybody
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: knows SMU's on the bubble. They gotta win. They've been
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: playing bad basketball, They've fallen onto the bubble. So there
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: is a little bit of a difference between SMU and Stanford.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: Stanford finished the season hot, which I think is actually
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: bad going into the tournament because the tournament is like
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: a reset. So whatever momentum you had, depending on how
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: many days off you had, if you had the more
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: days off that you had, the worst that it is,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: I think as far as like breaking your momentum. So
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I think it's not that great for Stanford, But for SMU,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's actually a positive to have that break
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: with the fact that they lost like four games in
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: a row to finish the season. But everybody still knows
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: SMU is trying to make the tournament. Here, man, they're
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: laying five against Syracuse, which might be a little bit
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: too extreme here, nobody's gonna want Syracuse in this one. SMU.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: The pressure is gonna be on them here, man, and
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: they're not that used to playing in this a SEC
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: tournament either. Neither is Stanford. Like I said, these teams
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: that are newer to the ACC, they're not really used
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: to this particular tournament set up. So for SMU, you know,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I would fade them as well. They did lose at Syracuse,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: by the way, not that long ago, which was one
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: of their losses when they're still playing well. They had
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: to go to Syracuse and they lost a really close game.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Syracuse is just free rolling though, and they had a
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: bad end to the season as well, they lost five
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: games in a row. So the same thing applies to
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: both teams here as far as that's concerned. Both teams
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: end of the season on a bad note, so that
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the extra rest can kind of help break that momentum
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: for both teams. I would lean towards taking the points
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: of Syracuse in that one, but you know, again, it's
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: not a strong opinion from me. And then the ACC.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: The last game at night is Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: These teams actually played twice during the regular season. I
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: believe Wake won at home by three, and then Virginia
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Tech won at home by nineteen in the most recent matchup.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the spreads, the spreads in
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: those games are kind of telling you that Wake is
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: actually the somewhat better team. Virginia Tech was three and
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: a half at home, so they weren't quite getting full
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: home court. I don't think I think Virginia Tech's home
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: court is pretty strong, and Wake when they played at
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: home were actually a five and a half way favored.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: The Lions have to adjust a little bit once you see, oh,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: this team's not as good as we thought that they were.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: They are not who we thought that they were. Wake
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: did finish the season with a win over Cal at home.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: But Virginia Tech is coming off a much more difficult
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: game of Virginia Tech. Plus, everybody knows Virginia Tech's on
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: the bubble. The public's gonna look at this to see
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: a short line of Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech has the
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: better record. The public is gonna flock to Virginia Tech
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: in this game. Man, and I don't like the setup
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: because they did just have a huge game against Virginia
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: They're huge rival, they'd beaten them the first time this
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: season two But to finish the season, they went on
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: the road and they only lost by ford to Virginia.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: They played really tough there, so I think it's gonna
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: be tough for them to get up off the mat
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: and play this game again, especially against a team they
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: just smacked in wake Forest. I think wake Forest is
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: under the radar here, man, I would lean to Waken
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: this one. It looks like the market agrees with me here.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech eighty three percent of the tickets and only
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: fifty two percent of the cash, so there's a major
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: ticket versus cash disparity right now. Again, these numbers could
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: change a lot during the day, but it looks way
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: too easy to lay the two to two and a
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: half of the Virginia Tech, so I would not do that. Yeah,
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards taking the points in that one.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: All right. Big Ten starts in the early evening on
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: Peacock at five PM with Maryland and Oregon. Oregon. I
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: think Oregon is one of the more underrated teams in
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: the Big Ten. People. I just think that they suck
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: and I'm not gonna say that they're good, but they're
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: definitely better than Maryland. And Maryland is coming off a
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly. Well not excuse me. Maryland is coming off
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: a really tough performance against Illinois. They almost beat Illinois.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: I watched some of that game the other night. That
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: was a huge home finale from Maryland. This Maryland team,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: they know they're not going anywhere. Men. They kind of
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: treated that game like they're Super Bowl. So I do
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: not like Maryland coming off a game like this. Is
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: one of my stronger opinions of the day. I almost
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: added Oregon to my card. Man. I like Oregon in
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: this game. Maryland really tough spot coming off that game.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: I know they lost four in a row to end
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the season, and like I did say, a team on
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: a losing streak sometimes will hit a reset button when
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: they get into the tournament, but I just don't see
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: it in this case. Oregon, by the way, did win
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: at Maryland earlier this year, which is one of Oregon's
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: only good road performances. Because Oregon has been really bad
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: outside of the Pacific times on a lot of these
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: these Pacific Coast Big Ten teams, especially UCLA, they are
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: having real problems playing outside at the Pacific time zone.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: But at least for Oregon, one of their best road
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: games was the game where they beat Maryland on the
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: road for Oregon. They finished the season beating Washington. That
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: was a decent win for Oregon there, but they're the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: better team here. I just worry about the venue here. Now.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: These games are all being played in Chicago, so I mean,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: the venue is not really that helpful to Maryland either.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: They got to travel to Chicago for Oregon. I don't know,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: I really kind of wanted to add to Oregon here, man.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: But I looked at their road games and I'm like,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: this isn't good. Like They're one really good one was
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: the one against this Maryland team. But they lost at Rutgers.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: They got absolutely destroyed at Nebraska. They lost at Washington,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: but that's a Pacific Coast game. They lost close at Purdue,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: that was a good one. They got killed at Indiana.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: They did win at USC, but again Pacific Coast. They
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: lost at Northwestern only by one, though Northwestern is not
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: that bad, and they got killed by Illinois. You know,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm considering it because I'm looking at it and
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: I'm like, well, the games that they lost badly on
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: the road were pretty much to all the better teams,
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: and they did fine against like the worst teams for
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: the most part, although they did lose to Rutgers. It
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: was close though. But you will be asking Oregon to
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: lay points in this game. They're up to a three
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: and a half way favorite. They are getting the money
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: fifty tickets on Maryland, fifty eight percent of the cash
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: on Oregon. So the real money I think is coming
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: in in Oregon in this game. This is very close
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: to being a play for me. I think I'm not
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: going to quite do it, but yeah, I would lean
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: to Oregon. And you know, it kind of surprises me.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: The public likes Maryland in this game, probably just because
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: they just saw what Maryland did against Illinois. That's probably
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: the only reason why. Because Oregon, as bad as they've
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: been this year, the record is better than Maryland's is,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: and they're the better team. The oddsmakers are telling you
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: they are the better team here. So that's what I
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: got in that game. That's one of my stronger opinions
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: of the day for Shore or Oregon. And then Penn
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: State is playing Northwestern. Northwestern is definitely the better team
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Penn State. Penn State is legitimately one of the worst
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: teams in this conference. Ninety four percent of tickets, ninety
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on Northwestern. For now, they're
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: lang six. You know this game also on Peacock. By
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: the way, I don't really see Northwestern losing this game.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: They're really undervalue comodity. Man Like people are gonna look
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: and see on Northwestern had this horrible record that wasn't
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: even that much better than Penn State's and maybe think
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: the six looks too big, even though right now it
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: does look like the public percentage is on Northwestern. Yeah,
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Northwestern did blow out Penn State when they played at Northwestern,
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: but I would probably lay it with Northwestern and this one.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: I know, Penn State ended the season on another losing streak.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: You know, Northwestern lost as well at Minnesota, which wasn't
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: that great either. So if both teams show up and
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: give you an effort in this one, Northwestern they are
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: an undervalue commodity. They've been undervalued pretty much all seasons.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: So I would probably lean towards the favorite in that
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: game as well and laying it with Northwestern. But that one, yeah,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: I don't like that one anywhere near as much as
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: I like Oregon though of course, you know, in fact,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: I don't really have a strong opinion on this one, really,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: but Oregon, I like, all right, now we'll go to
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: American East. Is that next? Yeah, UMass Lowell and UNBC.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: We're in the semifinals in the American East, and in
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: the American East, the better seed is hosting these games.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: So UNBC is at home for this game, which is
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why they're such a big favorite here.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: U mass Lowell is not that good. They're the four
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: seed here. They did beat the five Albany. They did
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: just play UNBC at home and they lost horribly by
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: twenty four. But UNBC is just the better team. Man.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: U mass Lowell has been very non competitive against them.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: They lost the game at UNBC earlier in the Sea
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: and by over twenty points as well. They just haven't
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: been able to match up against them. So yeah, UNBC,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: you know, they might take them a bit lightly for
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: that reason, but I really don't think they're gonna lose
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: this game UNBC. Both teams have already played in the tournament,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: so both teams have like a similar rest scenario here,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: and both teams coming off a win. UNBC easily beat
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: a bad UNH team coming into this one. You know,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I would lay the points with
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: UNBC in this one, though, I think the line is
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: pretty close to where it was when they played at
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: home against Lowell earlier in the season. Actually, no, it's not.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: I think UNBC was like a double digit favorite the
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: first time they played at home. Yeah, I'm pretty sure
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: they were like at least a ten point favorite. Now
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: they're only eight, so believe it or not, I actually
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: think maybe there's even some value on the UNBC side
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: here fifty three percent of the tickets and seventy eight
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on UNBC. They opened at seven,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: and it's gone kind of above that now that key
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: ish number seven because teams stop potentially fouling usually when
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: they're around you know, down by seven, because it's the
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: three possession threshold. I would still probably lay it, though
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play this game, it's up to eight,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: you know. I just I think it's a mismatch. I
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: just don't think U mass Lowell can really compete with them.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Then I think the line is low although it might
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: the line is the line is Lowell. Uh yeah, I
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: you know, I don't know. It looks almost too easy
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: to do it, but this is not a game the
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: public is really gonna have that much of an eye on.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: And then the other game is nj T and Vermont.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm in saying it all year that NJIT
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: is a fraud. They did beat Maine in the six
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: versus three match up, barely. It didn't end a losing
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: streak for them, so that's at least a positive for them,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Believe it or not. They split the season series with Vermont.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: They won on the road at Vermont and then they
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: only lost at home by six. But I don't think
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: they're gonna go into Vermont and win this game again.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: There's no way Vermont is gonna take them more seriously
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: as well. I think that was more of a major
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: outlier than anything else. Vermont's first loss, uh, the only
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: loss they had to nj T this year, the one
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: at home. Vermont was a thirteen and a half point
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: favorite in that game, and they're actually not as big
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: of a favorite this time. NJIT hit a large percentage
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: of their threes in the game. You know, it really
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: wasn't that misleading of a result, though, I mean, Vermont
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: did have more field goal attempts in the game. The
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: game was actually close statistically so I'll give it to
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: Nji T for that, But I think Vermont is going
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: to show up with a better reffort this time. They
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: are actually now up to the same favorite price yere
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. Sixty two percent of tickets arend NJIT.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: The public wants NJIT. I guess if they're playing this game,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: I would not eighty seven percent of the cash on Vermont.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: I would probably actually lay it with Vermont here. But
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: the total is pretty low in the one thirties. So
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: there's certainly a distin possibility that Vermont wins this game.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: It doesn't cover. I highly doubt that they lose. So
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: you know, those are my thoughts on that that game
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: is at Vermont. Like I said, all right, then we
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: have what else do we have here? All right? That
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: was the America East Conference USA begins as well, Missouri
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: State playing FIU. I think Conference USA has two games today.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: I think this is the eight versus nine matchup. These
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: teams split the season series, with the home team winning
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: each game. The games were both fairly close. This is
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: a close matchup to Missouri State finished the season with
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: a loss to a pretty underrated Middle Tennessee team. FIU
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: finished with a pretty good win. They blew out Western
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Kentucky actually, and most recently they did beat Missouri State
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: at home. This game will not be at home for them.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: This game is going to be in where are these
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: games being played again? I forget already, Huntsville, Alabama. All
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: the money looks like it's coming out of Missouri State
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: in this one. Man. I don't really have a strong
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: opinion on this one, but the market read is really
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: really indicating on Missouri State. They flip from a one
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: point dog to one and a half point favorite. FU
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: eighty two percent of the tickets on them, eighty five
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Missouri State. I'm not gonna disagree.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, people did see FIU almost beat Liberty recently
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: and they might put some weight into that effort and whatever.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: It's definitely a close matchup though this game could go
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: either way, but the money is all saying Missouri State. Here.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: One thing that I don't love about Missouri State. Though
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: they're new, they're pretty new to this conference. They switched
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: over from the Missouri Valley so they're not really used
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: to playing in this particular tournament, so that might be
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an issue. For them, but the
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: money is all coming out of Missouri State, So I
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: guess if I was going to play that game, I
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: would money line Missouri State probably in that one. Then
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: the other game in that conference is New Mexico State
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: and Jacksonville State, which I think is the ten versus
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: seven matchup. But New Mexico State actually is the favorite.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: And I've been telling you they're really underrated, like they've
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: been one of the unluckiest teams in ken Bond this year.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: The problem is they commit way too many fouls do
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: it and it's not stopping. Like throughout a huge chunk
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: of the season, I was like, that's a statistical outlier
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: like that can't keep continuing, and it has. They keep
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: losing the free throw battle constantly, like they're one of
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: the worst. I think they might be the worst team
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: in the country in free throw disparity, And at some
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: point I was like, that's gonna turn around, but it
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: just hasn't happened. New Mexico State did finish the season
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: with two wins, one of them was against Jacksonville State.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: They did actually beat them both games this year, by
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: nine on the road and by two at home. But
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: I think New Mexico State is the better team. Now.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: I know there is some one of those you know,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: kind of zig zags setups here where they did just
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: beat Jacksonville State not that long ago, so Jacksonville State
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: might make the adjustments here. New Mexico State did finish
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: on two straight wins, so that momentum might get a
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: little bit disrupted, whereas Jacksonville State only finished by barely
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: getting by UTEP, who I believe didn't even make the
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: conference tournament, so they finished the season on a lower note,
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: so they might show up harder for this game. New
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: Mexico State is a one point favorite, and they are
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: favorite for a reason. You know. I usually like the
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: underseeded team being favored. That's the way that I look
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: usually because the seed, when the seating doesn't align with
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: the odds makers, you gotta listen to what the odds
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: makers are telling you because they're the ones that have
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: money on it. The seeding is just based off of
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: what happened during the season, you know, which can be misleading.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: But the money looks like it is kind of coming
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: into Jacksonville State seventy five percent takes ninety three percent
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: of the cash at Jacksonville State. You know, I think
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: I probably will agree with Jacksonville State slightly. The venue
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: is actually helpful because Jacksonville State, they are actually in Alabama.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: Believe it or not. They're not Jacksonville, Florida. They're located
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: in Jacksonville, Alabama, so the location is actually more helpful
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: to them. In New Mexico State, I don't know when
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: they moved over to this conference, but I don't think
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: it was that long ago because they used to be
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: in the Whack. So I don't know, man, there are
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: some reasons to maybe lead towards Jacksonville State in that one.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: That one is not one that's really on my radar
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: or anything, though. I mean I look at every single
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: game to try to find, you know, the spots that
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: I like and whatever. CBS Sports At seven pm, we
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: will have an auto bid clinched in the Colonial. I'm
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: still refusing to call it the Coastal. The four versus
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: three seeds got into the final here between Monmouth and Hostra.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I've showed you the power ratings though. Power ratings wise,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: HOSTRA is the best team in this conference and they
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: will be a favorite in this game. Monmouth is a
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: decent defense at the very least. Though Monmouth beat Campbell
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: yesterday to get here, they played two games in the tournament.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: Hostro I believe has also played two games in the tournament.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Host did not look good. They really almost lost that game.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: After they did look good and they win over William
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: and Mary last night, they almost lost. A thousand thousand
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: is a much better defense than William and Mary is thousand.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: Gave HOSTRA some issues. Man and one of Host's best players,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: I want to say, Cruise is his name. He I
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: was watching the end of that game. He fouled out
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: like towards the end of regulation. The game went into
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: overtime too. So Host did escape in that game. And
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of times when a favorite escapes, they were
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: like a four and a half point favorite in that game.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: I like it better when it's a big favorite that escapes.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: But Host was a favorite that escaped in that game,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times you'll see a better effort
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: out of them the next time. Now, the problem is
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: HOST might be a little bit more tire because they
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: played the later game than Monmouth did yesterday, and they
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: played a tougher game. So those are kind of the
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: issues with HOSTRA. Here coming into this one, Monmouth you know,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: played earlier in the day, didn't have to play an overtime.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: But again, Hostra people are not gonna give them that
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: much credit for that win. I don't think, Oh, they
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: almost lost to the seven seed, so you know, that's
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: not gonna inspire confidence in the public. Let's just say,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: and they might be a little bit more impressed by
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Monmouth beating a Campbell team that took out the one seed.
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: Campbell had taken out UNC Wilmington in the prior game
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: that they had, So you know, that Monmouth win I
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: guess looks a little bit better in some ways. The
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: money looks like it is coming in a Monmouth though,
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: Hostra down from five and a half to four and
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: a half here, the total is low, seventy five percent
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: of tickets eighty one percent of the cash coming in
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: a Monmouth, so the money is indicating a Monmouth. You know,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: I think an under might be worth a look here
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: because these championship games, a lot of times you see
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: real focus on deepfense. But the problem is Hostra their
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: deep their legs might be a little bit tired, which
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: might affect the deepfense. After you know, having to go
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: into overtime late last night, so I would worry about
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: that a little bit too. The total in the one thirties,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: but I could definitely see this being a lower scoring game.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Ken Bomb has Hostra in the top one hundred defensively
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: on Monmouth is just outside the top one hundred, so
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: both teams are pretty good on defense. Hostra is still
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: the better team though, and they are the more balanced team.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: I still think Hostra should win this game, but the
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: money is indicating on taking the points with Monmouth could
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: be a close one. Man. You know, I think Hostra
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: will win the game, and if Monmouth wins, it's gonna
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: weaken the tournament field even more here. So we'll see
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: what happens. Because Hostra is a top one hundred ken
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Pomb team, Monmouth is not. Monmouth is, you know, probably
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: closer to the one fifties. I think I just showed it.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: I forget what we have one seventy nine. That's way
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: way worse. Uh, But you know, the setup could be
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: better for roster here. It's not particularly great for Hoster.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: The one good thing though, is that because their best
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: player there or whatever fouled out and didn't play the overtime.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: He's gonna be a little bit less tired in this one,
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: so there is that at least. All right, we got
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: the Southland Conference going on at night. ESPNU I think
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: has both of these games. The top two seeds jump
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: into the fray here now, but they haven't played yet
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: in this tournament. So this tournament being played in Lake Charles, Louisiana,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: so the teams have played yesterday might have a little
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: bit of an advantage here because they got a game
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: under their belt. Texas A and M Corpus Christy beat
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: New Orleans yesterday, a pretty easy win for them, and
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: they played the earlier of the two games as well,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: so they might show up with some focus here. They
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: did lose both regular season games to Steve and of Austin.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: Steven of Austin is definitely the better team here, but
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: an mc C. You know, at least they got a
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: game out of the way yesterday, so now they're used
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: to the venue. Easy win, you know, you get settled,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: you don't have the nerves now, so there is a
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: little bit of an advantage to them for that reason.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: Stephen of Austin finished the season with two wins in
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: a row, so you know that momentum might stall out
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit. They were definitely hot down the stretch,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: of course, because they only had a couple of conference
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: losses overall. Steven of Austin obviously is gonna be a
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: big favorite here. Not as big as you might think though,
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: six and a half and they're really public ninety four
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety six percent of the cash, it
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: looks like for now, but I would probably in towards
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: taking the points with an mc s man, Austin should
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: win the game. But yeah, I mean, I don't know.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, the osbeggers are telling you something that it
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: looks pretty easy to lay the six and a half
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: in that one, So I would not do it, because
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: when things look too easy, a lot of times they are.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: The total is quite low, and it's gone down into
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: the very low one thirties. So that's what's going on
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: in that game. The other game, of course, features the
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: team that I think is the best team in the conference, MacNeice.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: They jump in, but they have a similar issue to
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: see you and have Austin, and that they haven't played
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: since the end of the regular season as well, so
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: their momentum could be disrupted. They won eight games in
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: a row to finish the season, and so that momentum
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: could be stalled out. They're playing Rio Grande Valley, who,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, beat them once this year at
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: Rio Grande. MacNeice did get revenge and beat them at home,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: but only by seven. So Real Grande Valley has given
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: MacNeice problems and it's basically it's Real Grande Valley. They
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: just they shoot a lot of threes and they defend
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: the three. Well, they actually didn't hit that many of
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: their threes in the game against MacNeice. Macnice was the
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: better team in this game. They did win, but MacNeice
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: got to the free throw line a lot more so
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: they had that disparity helping them out there a little bit.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: The game was you know, it was a little bit
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: closer than it looked. So, you know, Macnice they haven't
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: been that great against Rio Grande Valley. But maybe they'll
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: turn it on a little bit, maybe because they'll take
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: Rio Grande Valley, you know, super seriously this time. The
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: other thing for McNeice here is that this game is
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: being played in their home city. It might even be
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: in their home arena. To be honest. These games. For
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: some reason, they're in Lake Charles and that's where MacNeice is,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. So they have like a home court
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: advantage in this game, which is kind of unfair, but
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: I'm fine with it when macnice is actually the best
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: team in the conference power ratings wise, they are, so,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: you know, it's it's a little bit of a difficult call.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Macnice does like to slow the game way down. They
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: have the longest opponent possession time in the entire country.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: They force opponents to, you know, really try like they
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: really force opponents to try to find like a good
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: shot or force them into situations where they can't even
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: find one, you know. And macnice is also going to
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: play aggressively on deepfense and try to turn you over.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: MacNeice is an eight point favorite in this one. Sixty
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on Rio Grande Valley, which I find
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: that hard to believe that the public wouldn't be on
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: Macnice here seventy four percent of the cash on MacNeice.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: I still think I would lean towards taking the points
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: with the Rio Grande Valley in this one, though, But
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: the money is saying lay it with MacNeice. I don't
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: quite agree with that, but there might be some line
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: value there because I think when MacNeice played them at home,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: I think they were like an eleven and a half
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: point favorite. But even if this game is at their
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: home arena, it's not entirely a home game because it
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: is a conference tournament game, so real Grande Valley's crowd
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: will probably still show up for it, coming up from
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: wherever the hell they are, so somewhere somewhere in South
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: Texas on the on the Rio Grande. All right, what
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: other games we got? Next? Up? Is my best bet,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: and it's an ESPN two game, and it is in
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: a conference final that is somewhat meaningless for one team.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: So let's go to the best bets here. If you've
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: listened to me, you know over the last few days,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: you know what this play is my only playing college basketball.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take Mercyhurst plus six. Now they're at Long Island.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: The game is at Long Island, so they do have
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: a home court advantage here, and I know Long Island.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: They were a bigger favorite than this when they played
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: at home against Mercyhurst earlier this year. They were an
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: eight point favorite, So you know, line value wise, it's
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit questionable here. I would much rather be
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: taking at least seven on this. We're not gonna get it, though,
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: But I still like this because I think the situation
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: is just really strong and the money is still agreeing
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: with me. Long Island did open seven very briefly. I
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: never saw it. It's five and a half or six
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: right now, I would, you know, I would still do it.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: Sixty five percent of the tickets on Long Island, sixty
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on Mercyhurst, money coming in
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: on mercy Hurst. It looks like it's gonna be an
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: ugly low scoring game, as usual in this conference. One
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: thirty six and a half is the total. Now we
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: look at what these teams did during the regular season.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Mercy Hurst covered this number both times. Mercy Hurst lost
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: by two at Long Island, and you might say, well
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: that that means Long Island will take them seriously here. Maybe,
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: But the this situation sets up there's a huge motivational
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: disparity here, which I'm gonna talk about in a second.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: This is one of these rare scenarios where I make
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: this an auto play, and I'll tell you about why
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: that is in a minute. I think it's even greater
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: when it's an underdog, because usually the last couple of
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: times this has happened, it's been like a favorite. This
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: time it's an underdog, so I'm like, hell yeah. Anyway,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Long Island they only won by two against mercy Hurst
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: at home, and they actually lost at mercy Hurst by eight,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: and I dug into those box scores and they weren't
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: misleading results. Like mercy Hurst played well both times against
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Long Island, Long Island did not. Like if you look
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: at the stat sheet, Long Island was not like the
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: significantly better team or anything like that. The team's played
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: really close in those games. So I like all of that.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: I like the fact that the game at Long Island
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: was really slow. But the main thing that I like
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: about this is that if if you're unaware, even though
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: this is the conference final, Long Island is already in
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: the NCAAA tournament after beating Wagner because Mercyhurst, along with
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Lemoye in this conference, are ineligible for the tournament because
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: they're still transitioning up to Division IE from Division two.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: So Long Island that was basically the basically the de
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: facto conference final, and unfortunately, my play lost by a
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: half point in that one, and Long Island actually covered
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: all the lower numbers in that game, and I wunt
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: up stuck with a bad number there. I'm pissed. But
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: whatever Long Island celebrated after that win, man, that was
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: their game. They won. They got into the NCAA tournament.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be headed to one of the sixteen seed
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: players probably, So this game doesn't have much meaning to
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: Long Island other than the fact that they get to
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: win the conference in name only, you know what I mean.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: And you're asking them to lay points in a situation
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: like that where they're already gonna be looking ahead to
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: the to the tournament, man, like they're potentially gonna be playing,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: you know, like a week from now basically, so I
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: think they're already looking ahead to that. And for mercy Hurst,
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: this is their last game unless they get I don't
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: I don't even think they're gonna be eligible because they're
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: in transition. I think that means they're not eligible for
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: the other tournaments either, like the the CIT the CBI.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna be in the College Basketball Crown because
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: that usually has like the bigger conference teams in it,
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: and then the NIT has kind of gone to because
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: the Crown took that over. The NIT now has lesser
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: teams in it. But I don't even think mercy Hurst
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: is you know, I don't know if they're eligible for
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: those or not. They it's possible they might be if
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: they win this game, but that, you know, that just
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: means mercy Hurst has more of a reason to want
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: to try to win this game, right because if they're
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: eligible for any of those extra tournaments and they need
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: to win this game to get into them, they'll be
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: motivated for that reason. If they want to play some
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: more games, and I think they want to just prove something,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. If this is their last
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: game of the season and they're still ineligible, then I
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: want to say, hey, fuck that, we're good enough to
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: be the winners of this conference. We should be the
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: team in the tournament, you know what I mean. So
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: I think you will absolutely get an effort out of
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: them here. And they didn't look particularly great in their
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: win over stone Hill. I watched the end of that game.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: It was a close game. So you know, for all
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: those reasons, Yeah, we're gonna do it. Man. We have
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: this ineligibility situation here where Long Island already has the
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: tournament bid, so we're taking Mercyhurst plus the points against
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: them here. The last time I did this, it was
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Merrimack was in this situation I think two years ago
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: when they were still in this conference, but they were
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: a home favorite in that game. So that was one
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: where I was like, should I money line it, should
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I lay the spread? And I think I laid the spread,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: and I think it pushed. I think it was minus
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: three and I think it pushed if I'm not mistaken.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: So that kind of pissed me off, but and money
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: line would have won. And then the other time I
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: remember this happening recently, was Bellerman against Jacksonville State or
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: something like that, back when jackson I think Jacksonville State
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: was still in the A Sun at the time. It
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: was actually I don't know if that was the A
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Sun or Bellerman was in CUSA. Actually, I think Bellerman
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: might have been in CUSA. Dude, I forget these teams
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: keep moving conferences. I don't remember, but I do remember
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Bellerman was the team that was ineligible at the time,
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: and they were like hosting a game where they, you know,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: the other team had already clinched, so I'm like, you
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: gotta play Bellerman here, and I think that I think
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: that was a winner as well, So that's what we're
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: doing here. I think this situation has come up maybe
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: three times over the last five or six years, and
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: I don't remember what the other one was, but yeah,
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: this is the This is one where it's you're getting
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: this team as a bigger underdog than usual. Like I
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: think those two scenarios I just mentioned, the team was
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: a favorite both times. This time you're getting it was
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: an underdog. Yeah, let's do it. Mercy Hurst is the
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: play there, all right. I'm not to be confused with
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy, who I'm very pissed about, who are playing
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: against Right State in the Horizon Final on ESPN. So
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: whoever wins this game, we'll get a tournament bid. Right
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: State is a significantly better team here, man, Like according
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: to ken Bom and all the metrics, they're way higher
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: in ken bomb than Detroit Mercy is. I don't know
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: how Detroit Mercy keeps doing this. I mean they got
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: hot at the right time. I guess they just upset
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: Robert Morris, so I think was the highest Ken Pom
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: rated team in the conference. Right State I think is
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: second even though they are the one seed. You know,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy, I mean I think I heard that they
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: had not even made it to this stage of the tournament,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: like they hadn't made it to Indianapolis for like a decade.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: So I guess good for Detroit Mercy for being able
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: to do that. This will be sponsored by Barbasol again,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: so again, you know, Unfortunately I shaved yesterday though, so
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: I'm not shaving during this game. Right State I thought
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: they were up against it in that spot last night, man,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: because Right State have been off for a in Northern
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: Kentucky had gotten a game under their belt in Indianapolis already.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: I thought Northern Kentucky was gonna win that game, and
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: it was close for a while, and then Right State
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: pulled away. Now the problem, Right State looked really good
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: in that game, winning and scoring over one hundred points.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: That's gonna impress people. Right State definitely could score. But
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: you know that might impress people too much coming into
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: this game. So looking at the market in this game,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: Right State is a four and a half way favorite.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: They are getting the money. Seventy five percent of tickets
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on them. The money is
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: saying Right State here, you know, I think I'll slightly
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: agree with it, just because usually the cream does rise
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: in these conference finals, and usually the better team does
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: win out when there's like a significant gap between the two.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: But Right State actually lost at home to Detroit Mercy
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: the last time they played. Looking into the box score here,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: it wasn't really that misleading either. It was actually a
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: pretty close game, and Detroit they outrebounded Right State both
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: times they played this year, so that does worry me.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: And Wright State had way more free throws in that
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: game too, so that worries me as well, and the
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: fact that they still didn't even win that worries me.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: Right State was an eleven and a half point favored
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: in that game, though, so the fact that they were
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half at home really not that long
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Agoing out on a neutral, they're four and a half,
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: that line does seem low at four and a half,
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: so it does seem like there is some line value
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: on Right State given that huge jump there. Right State
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: only one by two by the way at Detroit Mercy,
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: so Right State never covered this even a four and
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: a half number. Against them either time, and like I said,
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy was the better rebounding team in both games. Yeah,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: I don't have much else to say about this, but yeah,
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy also had more possessions in that first game
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: of the game at home, although Right State came away
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: with the win in that one. But the money in
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: that one is saying Right State, and again I think
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: it's just because the number looks low. I think in
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: that game at Detroit, I think they were actually favored
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: by more than that. So after Wright State didn't do
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: well against Detroit both times, Man, and the fact that
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: Right State did get upset by them as a huge
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: favorite at home, I think Right State might at least
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: take them way more seriously this time, especially now that
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: this is the championship game. So I'll still agree with
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: the Right State, but I don't really love it man.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: All right, but else we got left. I think we're
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: done with the Big Conference this year. I talked about
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: all those games already. We have the West Coast Conference
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: final at nine PM. I thought they waited usually, I
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: thought they got to the final and then they delayed
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: it until like Saturday. But I guess they're not doing
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: their Friday. Maybe they're not doing that this time though.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: They're playing it right away in Las Vegas at the Orleans.
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be Santa Clara and Gonzaga. Santa Clara. Nice
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: win last night from them, Man, that might be enough
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: to put them, like almost to almost assure them a
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: tournament spot. Man. Nice win for them over Saint Mary's.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: That was the win that I gave out on the
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: show yesterday. Now they gotta play Gonzaga, and they did
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: lose both games to Gonzaga this year. They lost by
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: eight at home and they lost by twelve on the road,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: So they didn't really get absolutely but you know, they
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: didn't get blown out or embarrassed or anything like that.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: But they were asking Santa Clara to play in a
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: situation that they're really not used to because this conference
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: final is almost always Gonzaga Saint Mary's. You know what
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: I mean. Now Santa Clara's in here. They just pulled
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: off a huge win that might be enough to get
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: them in the tournament. Nice upset they played the later
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: game last night to him. Meanwhile, Gonzaga, they didn't look
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: good yesterday. I mean, that final score was bad against
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: Oregon State. But they were never in danger of losing
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: that game. I think good Zaga just barely showed up
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: in the game. They were like, whatever, we can beat
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: this team. They didn't even come close to covering, which
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: I told you I didn't think they were gonna cover.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: They were like a twenty point favorite, really really bad
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: looking final score there. Gonzaga only scored sixty five points
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: the game. But again, I just don't think they put
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: in a ton of effort in that one. So I
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: do think this game sets up a lot better for
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: Gonzaga here. I think they're gonna win the conference tournament. Again.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: They're in this game every year, and I think they
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: win it more often than they don't, so they're used
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: to it happens every year. I would probably lay the
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: points with Gonzaga on this one. Man, they really didn't
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: look good last night, so people might even hesitate to
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: do so. And Santa Clara is this nice story. You know,
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Santa Clara looked like the better team last night over Gonzaga. Really,
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: but again, you can't put all that weight into one game,
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: especially when you pretty much know GONZAGAA just didn't even
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: give a shit about that game, and they just looked
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: like they wanted the game to end. By the end
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: of it, like whatever, let's move on. Gonzaga was six
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: and a half with juice. It looks like at the
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: opener it's now seven and a half Excuseuly, seventy percent
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on Gonzaga. Yeah,
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: I mean the money is coming in in Gonzaga. I
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: agree with it. I would lay the points with them
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: in this one after last night last night makes that
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: look a little bit more difficult to do. Now. I
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: believe Goodzaga is still without Braden huff here, who really
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: does matter for them. Yeah, he's still out, so you know,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know if and when he's ever even coming back,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: but Gonzaga definitely takes a hit with him not in there.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: So as I mentioned last night, we will see man.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think Goodzaga will get it done yet
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: again in that one there. Oh, I was gonna look
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: at what was the number when Goozaga played most recently
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: against Santa Clara. Let me see, this was at Santa Clara.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: Gonzaga were four and a half point favorites, So you know,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: seven and a half would be about right for a
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: neutral site game. Based on that, if you think Santa
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: Clara has about three for home court, which I think
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: is probably about right. All right, then we got the
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: matt AC Final in Atlantic City, New Jersey, so another
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: auto bid. We'll get clinch to the tournament. In this
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: game between Sianna and Merrimack, Zach, what's up? I told you.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: I told you Santa Clara is gonna win that game
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: out right, man? All right? This game, I dude, I
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: told you that Sianna was a decent like look in
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: like the futures market and whatever, because their path was
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: pretty easy. But they're also a pretty good team, man.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: But they really have not been tested in this tournament.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: They only had to beat Mount Saint Mary's and then Fairfield,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: who had knocked out Saint Peter's, who I thought was
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: an overrated team though. But Sianna, they've done what they
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: were supposed to do. But you know, they've done what
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: they were supposed to do. I should say they're in
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: the final here now, both these teams that they had
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: yesterday off, so the rest is about the same here.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: Merrimack more impressive win over Maris. Maris is a legit team.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: They were a very good defense, Merrimack had it easy
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: in the prior game though against a pretty bad Sacred
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: Hot team. Beating Maris is pretty impressive, though I know
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: it doesn't look like a good win. Fifty fifty seven.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: Maris is a very very good defensive team though in
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: this conference, so you know, and really even overall, Maris
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: is quite good on the defensive side. Merrimack still got
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: the job done, but they are coming off kind of
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: a tougher game, which maybe that'll hurt them a little bit. Now,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: these teams did play not that long ago, and Merrimack
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: won the game at home, but they wanted an overtime,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: and Siana was winning that game outright from more than
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: half of the game. And Sianna was actually the better
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: team in this game in a lot of ways. They
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: were winning for fifty three percent of the game. They
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: outrebounded Merrimack in the game. Merrimack had a weird outlier
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: here where they hit one hundred percent of their free throws.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: They were twenty six for twenty six. Now, I know Merrimack,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think they're a pretty decent free throw
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: shooting team, but one hundred percent with twenty six attempts
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: is ridiculous, like that's not going to happen again, So
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: expect some regression there. And Merrimack did have a plus
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: six to three point advantage there where I should say
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: plus eighteen point advantage from behind the arc there. Merrimack
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: does take a lot of threes, that's what they do.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: Sianna doesn't do that. Sianna plays, you know, in the
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: paint and whatever, but still that kind of you know,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: those were somewhat outliers here. Merrimack shooting forty four from three.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: They're not going to do that in every game either.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: So some indicators, you know, in this game indicate that
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: this game wasn't what it looked like. And Sianna definitely
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: could have and maybe should have won that game at Merrimack.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: These teams also played at Sianna, and Merrimack won that
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: game two by four points earlier in the season. Sianna
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: was actually a five and a half point favorite in
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: that game. So back then the oddsmakers had Sianna as
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: the slightly better team, and now they don't. But I
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: think the line might have shifted too much man in
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: favor of Merrimack here. Look at this game. Sianna dominated
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: in the paint again in this game, and you know
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: I like dominant paint teams. They had a plus fourteen
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: rebounding edge in the game. Merrimack again just hit a
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: large percentage of their threes. That's what they do. I'd
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: happen in both games, and Sianna hardly went to the
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: free throw line at all, even though they were at home.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: So even though Merrimack basically led the game wire to wire,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know that that game was really what it
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: appeared to be either. And again Siana was favored by
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: five and a half. Merrimack was a three and a
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: half point favorite when they were at home, not that
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: long ago. This game's on ESPN two, by the way.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: But now Merrimack is laying four points on a neutral,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: so they're actually laying more points than they were at
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: home like a couple of weeks ago against Sianna. That
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: seems ridiculous to me. I would take the points with Sianna. Here,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: cash on Sianna. The total is really low at one
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: twenty four. It's dropped eight points already, a lot of
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the under. I wouldn't really disagree
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: with the under but I wouldn't want to play it
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: eight points lower than where it opened. I think the
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: value is all gone from that number, you know, especially
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: you know points are at a premium when it's that low.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: I think think it will be a low scoring game though,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: which also does help the underdog. I think if we're
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: gonna play this game, grabbing the points with Sianna does
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: make sense here. That's how I would look at that game,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: all right, And then we have the Big Sky has
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: their semi finals, I believe going on, and then I
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: will have to go over to NHL and NBA. I'm
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: gonna take a break and then come back because there
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: are a lot of games in the NHL and NBA
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: as well. I have one play in each. Montana and
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: Portland State are playing. These games are all in Boise,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: Idaho on ESPNU and ESPN two for these two games respectively.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: Montana got the nice win last night, revenge win over
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: in Northern Colorado, even though I think Northern Colorado is
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: the better team. The game got close at the end,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: but Montana did have the upper hand in that game
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: for most of it. Now they gotta play Portland State.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: Montana actually beat Portland State both times this year, by
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: four on the road and by six at home. So Montana,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: you know, I looked into those box scores and it
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: wasn't really that misleading. Montana does seem to match up
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: decently against Portland State. Portland State, they are the best
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: deepfense in this conference. They're coming off beating Idaho State.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: Now here's the thing people might look at say, oh, well,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: I don't want Montana because Montana played last night, right,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Montana, they have like a rest disadvantage because
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: they played last night. But I think the fact that
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: Portland State, I don't know, man, Well, I guess because
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: they only had one day off. I guess that is
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: kind of an edge. I was gonna say, maybe they're
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: momentum stalls out a little bit, but I guess because
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: they only had one day off, I guess that is
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: not really that unhelpful to them. But yes, Montana played
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: last night. Portland State had last night off. So what
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: do we do with this game? Well, I'm gonna say
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: stay away from it. But the money is all coming
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: in a Montana here man. Portland State two and a
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, fifty nine percent of the tickets on them,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: ninety one percent of the cash on Montana though, so
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: the money is saying Montana in this one. I think
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: they do match up decently against Portland's State Porland State. Again,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: they are the better defense, but I don't know, for
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: whatever reason, it seems like they just don't do well
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: against Montana specifically. Ken bum has Montana, you know, they're
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: better on defense than offense as well. They're kind of
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: a lucky team, though he has Portland State about forty
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: ranking spots ahead of them. They're a lucky team as well.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: They're way better on defense, but they're not a good
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: offense Portland State, so I don't know. They're kind of
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: a weird mix. And they don't play that slow either,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: so kind of weird. And then in the late game
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: on ESPN two, Idaho playing against Eastern Washington. Idaho also
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: had yesterday off, so I think that's probably an advantage
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: to Idaho, to be honest, But they are coming off
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: beating Montana State, who's the highest power rated team ken
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: bom wise in the conference. That was a pretty big
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: win for Idaho, But they had yesterday off and they
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: will show up for a game against Eastern Washington. Believe
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: it or not, they beat Eastern Washington both times this year.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: Both games are close, winning by three and four. Eastern
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: Washington has been the hottest team in the conference pretty much,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: but their only loss recently was to Idaho. It was
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: the final regular season game. I believe, well yeah, because
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: otherwise one of the teams would be eliminated from the tournament.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: Eastern Washington won last night against Weber State. It was
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: a pretty close call against Web. Now Eastern Washington does
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: have to turn around and play again after playing late
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: last night. Idaho had the day off. They're playing in Boise,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: which you know, if any team has a location edge
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: in this tournament, it is probably Idaho because I think
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: they are located the closest to where this tournament is
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: being played. And I do think Idaho is an under
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: the radar team. I think they're actually like the fourth
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: or fifth best team in this conference, and the osbagers
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: are telling you they're better than Eastern Washington even though
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: there is seventh seed and Eastern Washington is the three.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: And by the way, Montana I think is like the
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: five or of the four. I guess at Broad State's
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: the one, but Yeah, the seven being favored over the
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: three is very interesting. Now, Eastern Washington, the one thing
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: they have in their back pocket is the reason why
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: their record overall looks really bad is because they played
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: a really difficult out of conference schedule. But that might
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: not be enough. I mean, Northern Colorado did as well,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: and they lost last night. Idaho's a one and a
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: half away favorite. They're getting all the money. It looks
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: like sixty percent of tickets on Eastern Washington's sixty six
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: percent of the catch on Idaho. So the money is
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: indicating on Idaho, and I'm not going to disagree. I
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: would lean to Idaho as well here man, you know,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: I'm leaning to both teams that won both regular season matchups,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: even though I know it's difficult to beat a team
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: three times. Well, when you've already done it twice, that
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: means you just have to win one more game. And
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: the reason why it's difficult is, yes, the other team
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: will make adjustments to what went wrong in those first
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: two games, you know what I mean, Whereas the team
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: that won might not have the adjustments to make. But
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: sometimes the team just is the better team or matches
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: up better against that team. You know what I mean.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts those games. I will be
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: right back and then we'll talk about this massive NHL
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: board here. I have a few opinions here. One rises
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: to the level of a play for me. I'll be
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: right back, all right, NHL, let's do it, man. We
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: have thirteen games, I think the NHL doing these like
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: Super Tuesdays or whatever. A lot of games on the board.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: They're all in the evening. The LA Kings are at Boston.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: Seems like the Kings like keep coming into Boston and
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: beating my Boston Bruins. Though Kings did play an overtime
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: last night though at Columbus, so they're on a back
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: to back and they have to go to Boston now,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: so that's not exactly the greatest setup for them here.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: For the Bruins here, they lost to Pittsburgh in overtime
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: I think two nights ago, so they were all yesterday
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: coming back home only from a single game on the
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: road though, so not returning home for a road trip
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: or anything. Corpus Salo is a net in that one.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: He hasn't been that good, but it'll be swaying, I assume.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: Back in net for the Bruins this time, which is
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why they're favored by as much
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: as they are. Well, that plus the rest advantage here.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: But the money is somewhat disagreeing with the Bruins here.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus one fifty five to minus one
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: fifty two on the money line, seventy five percent of
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: the tickets only seventy four percent of the cash on
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: the Bruins, so the money is somewhat fading the Bruins here.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: I kind of disagree. I would kind of lean to
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: the Bruins in this one, but I mean it's probably
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: about the price because a lot of times the team
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: at the rest disadvantage, a lot of times will be
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: undervalued in the market just because of the rest disadvantage.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: But I still don't like that. I mean, the team
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: went into overtime last night. I don't like that. Plus
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: they have to travel from Columbus to Boston. I don't know. Hopefully,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: for my sake the Bruins win because they're my team,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: but that's not a game I want to touch at all.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: San Jose at Buffalo, I do have an opinion on
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: this one. This one was close to being a play
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: for me. San Jose. They're coming off two overtime games.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: They lost in overtime to the Islanders. Now, the one
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: thing that worries me about San Jose, because I like
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: San Jose in this game, the one thing that kind
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: of worries me is that was a pretty big game
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: the Islanders. You know, they have a good record at least,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: so San Jose is coming off of that. But pretty
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: much everything else I like about San Jose. Here, they're
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip. They have two days off, so
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: having a couple of days off can help them overcome
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: that overtime loss. You know, they could break that losing
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: momentum with the time off. That's helpful. When you have
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: a couple of losses in a row and starting a
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: road trip, you're usually really focused to start the road trip,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: especially because they're playing a really hot Buffalo team that
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: has a really good record, So you will get effort
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: out of San Jose. I would have to imagine here
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is staying at home off a just an absurd
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: game where they beat Tampa Bay eight to seven on Sunday,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: which is one of the highest scoring games probably an
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: NHL history. Ridiculous game where neither team could stop each
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: other absolutely crazy. And Tampa Bay is a really good
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: team too, so that was a huge win for Buffalo.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: They might not have a whole lot left in the
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: tank after that or really pay that much attention to
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: San Jose. So I like San Jose in this game,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: really close to being a play for me. You're gonna
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: get them as a big underdog too, Buffalo minus two
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: hundred ninety one percent of tickets, only eighty percent of
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. Yeah, I would grab like a
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: puck line probably with San Jose. I don't know what
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: the price you can get on that is. Sometimes I
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: recommend like finding a plus one puck line or splitting
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: it to make your own plus one. Let me see
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: what's the price on San Jose here? Because I like them.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, this one is very close to a play
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: for me. You can get san Jose. Yeah, it would
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: be a split puck line money line situation. Probably you
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: can get them at plus one and a half at
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: about minus one forty five. I would put like sixty
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: percent of the bet on that and then the rest
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: of it on the plus one seventy money line probably
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: is what I would do in that one. Something like that,
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that one is pretty close to a play
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: for me man, And then the next one also is
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: I like Toronto against Montreal here as well, This would
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: be a split puck line situation as well. Or you
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: could just go right money line, you know what I mean.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: You can put less money on the money line to
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: try to win more, you know what I mean, Like
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: I try to every one of my bets typically is
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: usually to try to win three hundred. So like on
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: the money line, I would put less money on it
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: so that the win would be three hundred, if that
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: makes sense. If I did it money line only, Toronto's
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: lost a bunch of games in a row, seven in
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: a row. Nobody's gonna want this Toronto team. They haven't
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: won since before the Olympic break. But you know, they
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: played some good teams in the mix here. They just
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: to Tampa Bay. They've had two days off and if
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: anything's gonna help, you know, having a couple of days
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: off to break that losing momentum. They're going to a
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: team they'll probably be focused on, Montreal, one of their
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: primary arrivals. It's an Original six matchup here in the
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: Original six Canada matchup. Basically, Montreal also has been a
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: pretty good team this year. Montreal is returning on from
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: a road trip where they've been on the road for
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: basically a week. They went to the Pacific coast. You know,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: I talk about this, when a team returns home from
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: a road trip, a lot of times they will not
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: be focused and they'll overlook their opponent. They've had two
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: days off. But I don't think that's that helpful when
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: you're returning on from a road trip, because I think
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: it helps you, like settle back in at home. You
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: got stuff to do at home. You know, these guys
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: have families whatever, so that can become a distraction. Toronto's
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: been playing awful, so they could easily overlook Toronto. They
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: got an Outawa team that's been playing a bit better
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: on deck tomorrow. So yeah, I like Toronto in this
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: one man. Money seems to be agreeing with me on
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: this one too. Montreal ninety three percent of tickets, only
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the cash on them. They're down
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: from minus one seventy to minus one sixty five here,
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: So the money has agreed with me on that one
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: as well, and faded Montreal here. I think I like
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: this one better than the San jose One, but I like,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: you know, both, I lean towards both pretty strongly. So
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: I like both of those. I know they're neither of
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: them are my play which seems a little bit crazy,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean that the return home spot I
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: think is like one of the strongest angles that you have,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. But yeah, I like Toronto there.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: That would I would probably recommend doing a split be
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: they're partially puck line, partially money line. Columbus is at
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Columbus, they did lose last night in overtime.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: Like I said to the Kings, by the way, I
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: will say the Kings are better on the road than
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: they are at home. So that does help the Kings
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: today in the game against the Bruins. Columbus lost that
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: game at home yesterday. Now they got to go on
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: the road to play Tampa Bay. It's a game they
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: should get up for, but on a back to back
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: that makes it a little bit of a difficult situation
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: for Tampa Bay. They haven't been playing well recently. They
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: were the loser in that game against Buffalo, losing eight
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: to seven, and that's a crazy game to have to
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: come off of man and they're returning home from a
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: road trip, so that makes it worse. They've been on
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: the road for a week. They went to Minnesota, Winnipeg, Toronto, Buffalo.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming back to Florida. They got to play
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: this Columbus team that's not great, and then they got
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: Detroit and Carolina on deck, which I think they might
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: even look ahead to those games, even though I think
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: Columbus actually has a good record right now though, so
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess there's the chance they don't overlook
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: Columbus for that reason. But I like Columbus in this game.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: This is a bad spot for Tampa Bay, the return
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: home spot. You got stuff to do when you come
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: back home. Third game in four days, fourth game in
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: six days, fifth and eight I believe as well, all
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: in different cities. That's not easy either. With a potential
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: look ahead here coming off a ridiculous game. The couple
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: of things that are good for Tampa One is that
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: Vasilevsky will be back in net. He's still their better goalie,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: even though he hasn't looked good recently. And Columbus is
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: on the back to back with travel, which makes it
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: a bit difficult. Though they are starting a road trip,
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times teams will be focused to
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: start the road trips, so at least they have that
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: in their pocket. I lean to Columbus in this one.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: This one has not made my card, but I have
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: an opinion on it. At least Tampa Bay down for
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: minus two to sixty to minus two thirty three, ninety
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets, ninety eight percent of the cash
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: on Tampa Bay. So the money for now seems to
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: me indicating on Tampa Bay sort of, but I don't
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: think so, because the line has already dropped on them.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: They're a public side, so it looks like a reverse
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: line movement in agreement with me, That's one where the
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: price is so big on Tampa that a Columbus puck
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: line might be like pretty close to like a minus
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: one ten price in that one. Detroit at Florida interesting
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: game here. Detroit having a good season, Florida not so much.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: But there's still the back to back returning champs. Detroit
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: just beat New Jersey on Sunday. Highly doubt they're going
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: to overlook Florida when Florida beat them in Detroit the
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: game prior to that, So there is a quick revenge
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: angle here, which does work somewhat well, and it's not
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: necessarily because of revenge. It's more so that the team
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: that won won't have any adjustments to make you know
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: what I mean, because everything went well for them in
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: that prior game. For Florida, they haven't played since then,
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: So Florida won at Detroit, and that means Florida's were
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: turning over from a road trip that they've been on
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: since Sunday the first, So I don't love that. Again,
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: when teams are turning over from road trips, I think
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: it's a bad spot. They actually have three days off,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: so they do have kind of a rest edge. And
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: I guess it's good for Florida that they ended their
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: losing They ended their losing streak, so sometimes when a
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: team ends a losing streak, it will give them some
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: new found momentum. But still, they were turning over from
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: a road trip. They just won at Detroit to finish
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: the road trip. The extra time off, I think actually
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: kind of exacerbates the return home in a lot of
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: cases because you get settled back in at home and
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: it can cause you to not be focused on the
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: game even more so, so I do like Detroit in
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: this one doesn't make my card, but yeah, I have
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of opinions in hockey today. Man. The money
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: seems to agree with Florida down for minus one forty
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: to minus one twenty six seventy one percent of tickets
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: and eighty five percent of the cash on Detroit. So
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: the money is agreeing with me on Detroit. In that one,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: Calgary is at the Rangers. Calgary just took a really
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: ugly seven to three loss to Washington last night, so
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: they're on a back to back. But I think the
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: Rangers might be too. I got to make sure of
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: that in a minute. But that was also a bad
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: spot for Calgary because Calgary pulled off a huge upset
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: against Carolina the game before that, so they were definitely
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: gonna letdown spot. I considered giving out Washington yesterday as
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: a play. I held off it, but yeah, or yeah
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: last night, Yeah, Washington absolutely destroyed them. So maybe Calgary,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: you know, bounces back. Here. We're looking at the Rangers
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: being at home, man, And you know about the Rangers
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: at home by now if you watch my show, the
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: Rangers have the worst home record in the NHL. They're
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: terrible at home. Eight point fifteen and six. Awful, absolutely awful,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: And they're coming off a blowout win at Philadelphia last
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: night six to two with Shawsterkin a net their better goalie,
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: so Quick is probably gonna be a net here. And
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: looking at what the Rangers have done with Quick, they've
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: lost four games in a row where he's been in net,
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: so that's not great. He's been a good goaltender throughout
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: his career, but he's kind of old now and the
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: spot's not good. It's a third game of four days
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: for the Rangers, all in different cities. They blow at home.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: They just had a huge win last night, well a
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: win by lot, I should say. Whereas you're looking at
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: Calgary off an embarrassing game last night, I like Calgary
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: in this game the Rangers. You know, the osbigers are
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: telling you the Rangers an't that good. If they're only
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty six at home against Calgary and they're
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: getting the public action, it looks like ninety seven percent
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety ave percent of the cash. I like
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: Calgary in that one. That's the way I would lean
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: in that one. Yeah, I don't think I have much
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: else to say about that one, but yeah, Calgary would
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: be the way I would lean there. Pittsburgh at Carolina.
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh just beat Boston, Unfortunately. I think the Bruins had
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: like a three to nothing lead in that game too,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: so that pisses me off even more. They lost in overtime,
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: and I think the Bruins were never losing that game
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: in regulation. Pittsburgh now starting a road trip against Carolina.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: I think they will show up for a game against Carolina.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: Carolina is a really good team. Carolina is returning over
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, so another road trip return. It's
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: surprising we have all these road trip returns and I
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: only have one play today in hockey. Only one made
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: the cut man Carolina returning home. They lost to Calgary
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: though in their last game, so that was a really
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: ugly loss. But it's still a road to return, and
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: I think the gut instinct as well, the team's gonna
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: do better back home. They're gonna bounce back, right, But
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: typically that doesn't happen when you've been away for more
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: than a week. Carolina, I had to go all the
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: way up to the Pacific Northwest. Not a good spot
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: for them. Man, Like they they're gonna have to get
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: settled back in at home. They do have a couple
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: of days off, but it's a bad spot. I would
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: like it better if they had a huge game on
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: deck like Tampa Bay, but unfortunately they have Saint Louis
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: next than Tampa Bay. But yeah, I still need to
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in this game for sure. Carolina down for minus
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: two to thirty five to minus two hundred and eighty
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets, eighty one percent of the cash
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: on them, So the money is agreeing with me on
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: that one. It would be again probably a split puck
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: line money line situation there with Pittsburgh. Next up is
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: the first TNT HBO Max True TV game of the night,
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: Islanders at se Lewis. This is the game that I'm
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: going with best bet man, and yeah, we're gonna be
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: on a road favorite. We're gonna lay the price with
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: the Islanders minus one twenty four. This is another road
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: trip return spot and it might be the worst one
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: that's on the board today. Saint Louis has been on
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: the road since Sunday, March first. Yeah, they went all
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: the way to the Pacific. They had to go to Minnesota, Seattle,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: San Jose, Anaheim, and they swept the road trip, so
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: they're looking really good right now. And I know the
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: Islanders have a good record, but not only is Saint
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: Louis are turning over from a road trip. They've been
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: on the road for a while. I talk about that,
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: how you return home. It can completely stop your momentum.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: You gotta get back to home life. It becomes a distraction.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: But they have a huge game on deck against Caroline,
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: and they got Edmonton the day after that, so I
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: think they might overlook the Islanders, even though the Islanders
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: are having a decent season. Caroline is really good and
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: Edmund is in Saint Louis's conference, so those games might
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: mean more than this one does. I think it's a
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: bad spot. I think it's actually a sandwich spot, given
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: the Carolinas on deck, and for the Islanders, they did
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: just play in San Jose, I know, so they're having
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: to travel across time zones here. But the Islanders, I
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna put in some effort, man, because they're
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: only one and two on the road trip here, so
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up for this one. And
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: by the way, Saint Louis is a bad team, and
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: when bad teams will turn on from road trips. A
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: lot of times they do even worse in that spot
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: because it's a bad team in a bad spot. A
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: lot of times they do really bad. So laying these
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: small favorites in situations like this a lot of times
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: is a very good idea. The Islanders have had two
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: days off, so they do have some rest here they're traveling.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna put in an effort to try
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: to split the road trip here. Man. They did just
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: meet San Jose to end a losing streak that they had. Here,
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a better effort out of
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: them here. I don't know who their goalie is gonna
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: be in this one. Don't think it's a big deal.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: It should probably be Soroka again because he usually plays
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: a bunch of games in a row, and they've had
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: two days off, so you'll probably get the Islanders primary
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: goaltender here in this one. That's what we're gonna go
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: with for Saint Louis. I don't even care who's who's
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: in net for them, to be honest, I really don't
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: think Bennington is that good man. We're going with the Islanders.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: They're about minus one twenty one right now. According to
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: this screen, they're a little bit public eighty four percent
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, but I think they're gonna get the
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: money as well, ninety nine percent of the cash for now.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: But yeah, this is the one spot that actually was
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot out of all the games that I've
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: talked about so far. So Islanders will be the play
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: for me there and the one where we weren't, you know,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: jumping in on a puck line fading like a huge
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: favorite here. But I do like those situations too, though.
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: We'll see how many of them work out. But I'm
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: being really selective today. Vegas at Dallas is one of
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: the better games of the day. Vegas not really having
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: a great season right now that they got a lot
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: of overtime losses. Man Vegas lost two games in a
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: row at home too, so it might be good for
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: them to just go out on the road. You know
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get effort out of them in a game
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: against Dallas, at least coming off a couple of losses.
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: Dallas just beat Chicago, I believe last night. I want
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: to say, no, two nights ago. That's right, Chicago lost.
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: Chicago beat Utah last night. I got that game wrong,
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: made a big mistake there, but it didn't give it
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: out as a player or anything. That's why I didn't
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: feel strongly enough about it. Dallas did beat Chicago in
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: their last game, although they barely escaped that game, but
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: you can see why. Dallas was coming off a huge
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: game against Colorado where they took Colorado into a shootout,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: so it was a bad spot for Dallas. In fact,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: I think I actually might have given out Chicago as
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: a play in that one and they Chicago could have
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: won the game, but I think they at least covered.
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: It was a plus one and a half puck line
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: for us there. De Smith was in net in that
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: one for Dallas, so Atinger, who's their better goalie, will
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: be back in net presumably for this one. It's a
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: game that I don't want to touch at all, but
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: I will lean to Vegas slightly here, and the money
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: is agreeing with me. Dallas is up to minus one
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: fifty ninety two percent of tickets on them fifty one
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Vegas. Though, You're getting a
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: pretty good Vegas team in a spot where I think
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: they will show up focused as an underdog here. So yeah,
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: I like Vegas in that one as a money line
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: underdog Utah at Minnesota. Utah played last night, like I said,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: but it was not a good result for them. They
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: lost at Chicago. They're playing a third game in four days, though,
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: fourth and six, fifth and eight, and a six game
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: in ten days, all in different cities, which is not
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: easy to do at all. They're playing Minnesota, who they
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: actually beat in Utah back before the road trip started
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: on February twenty seven, so there is a little bit
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: of a revenge angle for Minnesota here. Quick revenge or
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: quick adjustment for Minnesota. But Utah is coming up a
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: bad game last night, so even though they're on the
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: back to back, they'll use Vamelka in net tonight. He's
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: their better goalie. Vanachek was in net last night the
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: two v's, so they will switch to a rested goalie
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: who is their primary goalie tonight. So that's not horrible
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: for Utah at least for Minnesota. They didn't play yesterday,
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: but they're coming off of a big game. They're returning
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: over from a road trip. It was only Friday Sunday though,
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: so not a long road trip return spot. But they
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: still finished the road trip by playing Colorado. So in
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: their last three games, they beat Tampa Bay, went on
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: the road to beat Vegas, and then they almost beat
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: Colorado on the road. Those are huge games from Minnesota. Man,
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: so they could possibly be in a hangover spot against
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: Utah here. So even though they might not overlook them
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: because Utah did beat them not that long ago, I
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: would kind of lead to Utah in this game, man,
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: Minnesota already dropped from minus one seventy to minus one
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: forty two, though we don't see any percentages yet, but
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: that's a crazy drop on the money line. I don't
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: know why that happened, but yeah, it would be I
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: guess Utah money line in that one. That game is
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: on Hulu. Anaheim at Winnipeg. Anaheim is a much better
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: home team than road team. But Anaheim is coming off
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: a really gross loss to Saint Louis Ford to nothing.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: So you know that's usually you bounce back when you
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: lose horribly at home like that and you get shut
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: out at home and starting a road trip, you're usually
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: focused to start the road trips. I think you will
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: get a good effort out of Anaheim here Winnipeg. These
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: teams played each other not that long ago too, and
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think yeah, I think yeah. Winnipeg lost at
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: Anaheim though, five to four, so maybe I guess there's
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a revenge angle for Winnipeg here.
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: That game was on February twenty seventh, and overtime game
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: wasn't that long ago. Winnipeg's been going into overtime and
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: virtually every game recently, which is crazy, including their most
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: recent game, which was against Vancouver. And you know, Winnipeg
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: playing against Vancouver like that, not playing well, they should
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: probably be in a focused spot here too. Man having
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: a game that wasn't good against Vancouver, he got a
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: couple of days off here. Now the days off might
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: hurt their momentum a little bit because they won three
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: games in a row, But that was a bad performance
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: against a bad Vancouver team, and you can kind of
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: see why because Winnipeg had had a huge win against
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: Tampa the game before that. So I think both teams
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: are in positive spots in this one. A lot of
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: times when that's the case, the under can kind of
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: be worth a look, especially if Winnipeg's gonna have hellabuck
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: and net again. Who is an elite goalie. Winnipeg's getting
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: the money sixty percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: the cash, and the rough for minus won twenty five
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: to minus one thirty five here. I would kind of
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: need to Anaheim in this one though, given what the
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: spot looks like. But I think both teams should show
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: up focus here. So yeah, again, I think an under
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: maybe worth a consideration in that one. The rare underlean
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: for me and hockey Edmonton at Colorado is the other TNT,
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: True TV in HBO Max game. It's a pretty good game.
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: Edmonton is coming off a winner for Vegas, which is
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: a big game. They're not gonna overlook Colorado, but having
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: to play Vegas, Colorado and then they have to play Dallas.
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: Playing all three of those teams three games in a
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: row is not that easy to do. Colorado is coming
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: off beating Minnesota, which was a decent win for them
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: as well. They played their last two games, had to
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: shootouts against Dallas on the road, then return home, did
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: it again against Minnesota, got some quick revenge against Minnesota two.
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: So you know, both teams are having to put in
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: big efforts a couple of games in a row here,
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: so I think that kind of balances out. The money
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: is indicating on Edmonton in this one. Colorado down for
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy eight to minus one sixty six, seventy
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: three percent of the tickets on them and seventy one
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. So Colorado is a public side,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: but the money kind of indicating on Edmonton here. It's
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: It's difficult, man. I guess I don't really have much
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: of a reason to disagree with that, but I don't know.
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: I just I never really love just the style of Edmonton,
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Just I think their goaltending
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: is crap. They score a lot and that's what they do.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: I just don't like teams that score a lot and
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: don't really play defense or goaltend, you know what I mean.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: The final game is Nashville at Seattle. Nashville is coming
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: off beating or excuse me, almost beating Buffalo. That game
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: I think was it was within one goal. I think
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: really late in the game they didn't almost beat them,
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: but they were down. I think they were down two.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: They were down. No, wait, maybe they did almost beat them.
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: Hang on, wait what they had cut it to one
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: goal on a power play with like four minutes to go,
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: so they were down one goal for the final four
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: minutes of the game. They're still a tough game to
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: come off of against Buffalo. Now they're having to go
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: all the way to Seattle for this, which a lot
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: of times that first game for like a more easterly
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: team having to play a late night ten PM out west,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: sometimes that will mess with that team's biological clock. So
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: even though they've had a couple of days off, they
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: probably traveled out there to try to get used to it.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: But I'm not sure I love the spot for Nashville
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: here off of playing a big opponent, Where's Seattle? Even
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: though Seattle's not as good as the record might make
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: it look. They're coming off a really ugly loss at
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: home to Ottawa seven to four, and they had kind
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: of a bad loss prior to that to Saint Louis
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: at home as well, So I think you're gonna get
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: an effort out of Seattle here, even though they do
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: have Colorado next. You can't keep losing at home like that, man,
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: and that Saint Louis one was when they were coming
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: off a huge win over Carolina, so they were in
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot there. But that last game, they played
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: horrible loss at home to Ottawa, so I expect they
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: will bounce back. They have two days off as well
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: to break that losing momentum, so I would lean to Seattle.
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: In this game. They did drop from minus one twenty
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: to minus one away. Again, a lot of respect in
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: the market for Nashville, and it can't happen every game.
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: Man eighty three percent of tickets, eighty five percent of
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: the cash on Nashville, I don't agree with it. Yeah,
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Seattle and that one. And I
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 1: think that Chicago game that I mentioned was a win
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: for us, by the way, on the on the puck
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: line the other day, because I think it was a
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: plus one and a half, I was thinking of the
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: push that I had with Nashville and the other puck
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: line that I gave out not that long ago. All right,
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: So that's the hockey board for today. Gave out one
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: play in hockey and a bunch of opinions. I guess
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: I would order my opinions the Islanders, obviously, because that's
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: my one play. Then I'm trying to remember what I
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: even talked about here. Let me see, probably Toronto would
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: be next. Then I you know, I did like what
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: was the other one that I liked, San Jose, That
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: one would probably be next after that. Then then probably Calgary.
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: It would be that order, and then I don't really
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: have a strong enough opinion on the rest of them,
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: but that would probably be how I would order the
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: strength of those. But don't put too much weight into that, man,
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: because what do I know about weighing the strength of these.
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: I'm more of a guy that's like, if it's good enough,
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: it makes my card, and I pretty much play it
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: for the same amount every time. All right, NBA? Oh man,
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: A lot of games in the NBA today too, I
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: think ten, maybe eleven. The first game up is Memphis
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: and Philadelphia. Philadelphia is still a massively injured team. Edgecomb
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: actually missed their game last night too. He might be
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: back tonight. There's still gonna be without Maxi embiide George
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: who was suspended. So you're looking at, yeah, Philadelphia team
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: that has basically nobody, although they might have edge Comb
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: back here, like I said, but Philadelphia, they had a
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: big game last night against Cleveland, Man, and now they're
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: playing a third game in four DA's all in different cities.
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: I know that game wasn't close, but if they get
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: edge Comb back here, you know it's gonna be kind
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: of like a reverse injured player spot as well, where
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: you know you have to work him back into the
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: lineup again and whatever. And they might not totally focus
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: on Memphis because they do have Detroit on deck, which
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: is a bigger game for them as well. So I
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: would probably have to lean to Memphis in this one,
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: even though I know Philly is a small favorite here
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: because nobody is playing for them. Memphis is also on
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 1: a back to back that was a bad loss last
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: night in Brooklyn. Man, now they're traveling for Brooklyn to Philadelphia. Memphis,
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: they pretty much had been putting an effort in these games, though.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: I thought both teams were in bad spots last night.
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: But I liked Memphis because I thought the spot was
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: really bad for Brooklyn off that ridiculous win over Detroit
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: didn't happen. But with both teams on back to backs,
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: I prefer Memphis in this game off that bad loss
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: last night to Brooklyn. The money appears to be agreeing
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: with me pretty strongly. The Sixers are a three point
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: favorite fifty six percent of the tickets on them ninety
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on the Grizzlies though, so
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the Grizzlies. I agree
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: with that Detroit at Brooklyn, and as I just said,
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: Detroit just lost to Brooklyn two games ago, so I
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: don't think Detroit is gonna take them lightly this time.
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: If that team, if that bad team went into your
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: place and beat you at home, you're probably gonna pay
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: attention to them the next time. And I think it
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 1: was some ridiculous comeback for Brooklyn in that game as well,
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: So I think Detroit will be focused here. Man. I
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: know they're playing a third game in four days, fourth
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: game in six days, fifth game and eight and a
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: sixth game in ten all in different cities, and actually
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: a seventh game in eleven days too would travel between
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: all of them, so I know it's not easy. Detroit
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: has no rest here, but they just lost by double
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: digits at Miami. They're playing a Brooklyn team that just
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: embarrassed them. I think you're gonna get an effort out
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: of Detroit in this one. Brooklyn played last night, so
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: they have no rest here. They beat Memphis, it was
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: a return home spot for them as well. They will
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: get up for a game against Detroit, I would think,
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: but with no rest here and with Detroit probably giving
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: you an effort here, I would lay the points with
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: Detroit in this one. Man, NBA, you don't want to
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: be you don't want to always avoid laying double digits
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: on the road in the NBA. Man, it's like the
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: one sport where it kind of makes sense to do
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: it sometimes, even though it's not really totally in my repertoire,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: Occasionally I do it. I'm not gonna make this a play,
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: but I would lean to laying the points with Detroit here.
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: They're up to minus fifteen and a half though, so
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: the money has come in on Detroit in agreement with me,
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I agree with that. Yeah, it was
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: like a twenty point comeback. Yeah. I think after that happened,
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: I expect Detroit will not overlook them that this time.
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: And I think Detroit wins the game pretty easily this time.
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: Washington at Miami. The problem with Washington is how much
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: effort are you gonna get out of them? And I
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: think some of their guys came back who were injured,
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: but they have not been looking good. They just got
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: killed by New Orleans. Although I think you're occasionally gonna
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: get an effort out of teams like this, just you
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: gotta figure out when it's gonna happen. You know, will
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: it happen After they lost by twenty to a not
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: very good Pelican team, I don't know, man. They caught
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: New Orleans in a bad spot too, and they still
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: got blown out. Like New Orleans was in a bad
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: spot in that game. I think it was a return
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: home spot. So this Washington team not impressive. I think
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: they caught Utah in kind of a bad spot to instill,
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: didn't do well. So I can't do anything with Washington.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: But I don't think Miami's in a very good spot here.
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: Miami's gonna letdown spot. In fact, they just beat Detroit.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: That was a big game, like big win for Miami
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: beating Detroit. They do a Milwaukee next, which is a
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: bigger game than Washington at least because it is still
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: Yahannis and whatever. So this is a bad spot for Miami.
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: So there's no way that I could lay the points
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: of Miami here. I would have to lean to the Wizards.
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: Plus the points in this one. I can't do it.
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: And it's a high total, probably because the Wizards are
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: expected to put in no effort on deepense. Again, two
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: forty three is a ridiculous, ridiculous total, and the money's
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: coming in on the over. So hey, when totals are,
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: you know, obscenely high, usually the odds makers are indicating
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: something to you. So maybe you do want to look
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: towards an over in this game. But man, that total
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: is crazy high. But the money looks like it is
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: coming in on the over. For what that's worth, you've
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: lost about a point and a half on that. Although
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: a lot of points get scored in the NBA, excuse
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: me sixty. The tickets are on the heat fifty nine
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Wizards, so the money
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: is agreeing with the Wizards. But there's no way I
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: could do that. Dallas at Atlanta. Dallas has lost a
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 1: bunch of games in a row. They got Cooper flagged back,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: but they're not playing well. They were just in Toronto
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: they lost again. Their schedule has been pretty packed. They're
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: playing a lot of road games in quick succession. Here.
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: They had a back to back on Thursday Friday, so
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: they're playing a fourth game in six days, a fifth
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: game in eight days, a six game ten all in
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: different cities. Not that easy. But they did get pretty
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: embarrassed losing by thirty points to Toronto in their last game.
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: So when that happens a lot of times you will
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: see the team try to put it in an effort
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: in the next game. Atlanta has won a bunch of
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: games in a row, so we have opposing streaks coming
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: into play here, with Atlanta winning six in a row,
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: Dallas losing probably more than six in a row at
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: this point, Atlanta coming up a decent win over Philadelphia.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: They've had a couple of days off, which I don't
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: think is helpful. Man, when you are rolling like this,
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: you don't want to have a ton of time off,
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. It could hurt your momentum
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit. So I would lean to Dallas in
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: this game, but I do worry about the rest situation
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: for them. But Atlanta is a big favorite. Nine and
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 1: a half. The money's agreeing with me on this one too.
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: Eighty six percent of the tickets, only seventy five percent
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Hawks. I would take the
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: points with the Mavericks in that game. Toronto is at Houston.
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: Toronto coming up that blowout win over Dallas, But I
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: think it does mean they have momentum. Now they're starting
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: a road trip here, you'll probably get an effort out
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: of Toronto. Toronto, by the way, they're actually a little
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: bit better on the road than they are at home.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: So Toronto's a pretty good road team for what it's worth.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: Starting a road trip with a little bit of momentum,
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: they won't be over confident after killing Dallas. I don't think.
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: I think they will show up because Houston's a good team.
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: Houston coming into this game off a blowout loss. It
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: was a big game against San Antonio, but they got embarrassed.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: So I could see it going two ways, because you
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: get up for that game emotionally, man, so sometimes even
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: if you get blown out, you won't want you won't
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: bounce back from a game like that right away. And
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: Houston does have Denver on deck in an ESPN game tomorrow,
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: so I would lean to Toronto in this game. The
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: money is slightly disagreement with me. It looks like with
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: the Rockets a five point favorite here, the line hasn't
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: really moved much. Sixty two ticket, sixty percent of the
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: cash on the Rockets. I think I would lean towards
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: taking the boys with the Raptors in that game, though,
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: my Boston Celtics are at San Antonio. This is the
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: first of the NBC Peacock doubleheader here. You know the Celtics,
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: I think they lost at home to San Antonio earlier
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: this year. San Antonio is really good. Man. I guess
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a revenge motive for the
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: Celtics if they care about that. That was a five
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: point san Antonio win back on January tenth. Of course,
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: the Celtics have Jason Tatum now. But the Celtics are
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: coming up a really nice win against Cleveland, very satisfying
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: win against the potential playoff opponent, and they swept the
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: season series with Cleveland. Big win for the Celtics. Now
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: is starting a road trip. I would say, usually you're
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: gonna get focus out of a team starting a road trip,
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: and yeah, the Celtics should bring focus against a team
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: like San Antonio. But they're coming off a big win
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland, they got Oklahoma City on deck. They can't focus,
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: you know, they can't give it one hundred percent effort
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: in every one of these games, you know what I mean.
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: Just it's against like human nature. You just can't do it.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: At some point you're gonna be too tired. San Antonio
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: is coming up a very satisfying blowout win over Houston, though,
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: and they do have Denverron deck, So I don't love
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: the spot, particularly for either team here. But I can
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: tell you the money is really indicating on the Spurs here.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: They're up to a three and a half point favorite, Celtics,
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the tickets on them, seventy eight
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Spurs, and the money
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: is saying the Spurs here. I'm not really gonna disagree
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 1: with it. Not a strong opinion for me on that game, though,
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 1: you know, an under might be in consideration in that one,
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: except for the fact that I don't love the spot
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 1: for either team both teams, you know, but you know,
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: both teams should bring focus in this game. Like I
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: lean towards over as when I think teams are gonna
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: either lack and focus or be really tired. You could
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 1: make the argument they'll be tired off those previous games.
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 1: But the money is indicating on the under, and it
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: is a pretty low to total at two twenty two, it's
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: only dropped a point and under kind of makes sense
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: and the Celtics, even though Temple doesn't matter as much
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: in the NBA, the Celtics do play the slowest pace
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: in the NBA and they also are like the second
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: best defense in the NBA, so things to keep in
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: mind there. Chicago is at Golden State. Chicago coming off
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: a pretty bad loss at Sacramento. Kind of explainable because
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: they had a nice win over Phoenix the game before that,
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: so they were in kind of a letdown spot. Maybe
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: they will bounce back here for a game against a
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: better team like Golden State. Golden State's not exactly great though,
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: and they're missing a lot of guys. Still have no
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: idea when Curry's coming back, Butler obviously is not coming back.
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: Golden State is returning over from a road trip here
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: and they played last night, So not a great spot
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: for Golden State here. But they did lose last night
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: to Utah, not a great loss, but still they were
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: turning over from a road trip. They were on the
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 1: road since so it was, you know, not a not
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: a long road trip. I like to fade teams are
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: running on from long road trips, but still a road trip,
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 1: nonetheless coming back from elevation. They're on a back to back.
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: They're playing a third game in four days, fourth and
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: six all in different cities, having to cross time zones
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: here with no time off, and again, when you return
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 1: home a lot of times it's a distracted spot. You
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: got to get back to home life. And they have
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: a couple of big games on deck against Minnesota and
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: the Knicks, So I might be talking myself into an
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: additional play here. Man. The Bulls are staying on the
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 1: Pacific coast here, so they're already adjusted to the time zone.
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: Ugly loss from them. Let's look at the injury report
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: real quick. Here Giddy is a game time decision again.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: It looks like here ankle injury. I don't know is
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: he gonna play. He played in their last game. He's probable,
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: so he will play. Simons is still out for the Bulls.
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: He hasn't played much for them since the Celtics traded
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: him over there. Jalen Smith looks like he is gonna play.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: He came back in their last game. He didn't play
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: well though, so actually that's good for the Bulls. He's
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: one of their better ish players. He didn't play well
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: in his first game back against Sacramento, so I think
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: you could expect Smith was a little bit rusty and
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: that he will play better in this game this time.
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: Curry is still out. It looks like he's projected to
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: come back in three days. I don't know if he will.
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: The former Celtics and Porzingis and Horford are both game
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: time decisions. Horford did not excuse me. Porzingis did not
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: play in the last game. He still has an illness.
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the fuck that even is. Horford
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: has a toe injury. Why does that stuff keep these
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: guys out? I have no idea. There's something weird going
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: on with Porzingis. Man. The NBA is just weird in general.
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: But yes, I absolutely like the Bulls in this game.
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 1: Warriors are a six point favorite, seventy five percent of
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 1: tickets on them, only seventy three percent of the cash.
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: Oh man, it's tough. I like the Bulls here. Man. Man,
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: I'm very tempted. I know I didn't. I didn't add
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: any other hockey plays to my to my card today,
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: trying to be very very selective here, you know, I mean,
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: I guess one of my hesitations was the Warriors road
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: trip wasn't that long and they had a bad loss
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: to Utah. Those are really my hesitations with it. I'll
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: stay off it, but I like the Bulls. If I
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: was gonna add another play to my card, it would
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 1: definitely be the Bulls plus the points there all right,
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 1: Charlotte and Portland. Charlotte didn't do well in Phoenix in
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 1: their last game, and I told you, man, Phoenix very
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 1: good against the spread. They're pretty good at home as well.
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: Nice win for Phoenix there. Charlotte's lost two games in
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: a row. Now might be in bounced back mode. Now
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: they're they're adjusted to the kind of well, not adjusted
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific coast, but adjusted to a more western
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: time zone. Let's say they're going up to Portland. But
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: they did beat Portland at home by double digits not
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: that long ago, so it could be a little bit
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 1: of a revenge or you know, adjustment, zigzag spot, whatever
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 1: you want to call it for Portland. Here. Portland is
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 1: already back at home. They actually did well in a
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: return home spot. Believe it or not, I lost on
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 1: that game, So wasn't that just great? On Indiana. Portland
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 1: still had a nice game in that one, in the
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: return home spot. I think it's a decent spot for
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: them to still show up against Charlotte here. So I
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: don't want anything to do with this game. The money
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 1: is indicating on the Blazers, though the Hornets are a
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: three three and a half point road favorite. Sixty six
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, sixty three percent of the cash on
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: the Hornets, the money indicating on the Trailblazers in that one.
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with it, but not really a strong
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 1: opinion there. Indiana at Sacramento, this is this is a
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: bad game, dude. You know what you're gonna get out
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: of either of these teams. They're both really injured. They're
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: both just playing out the stretch. Now. Indiana couldn't even
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: put in an effort against a Portland team in a
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 1: bad spot. Indiana, coming off of that, maybe they will
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: show up for a game against Sacramento, you know, just
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 1: because they've been losing every game. Sacramento did finally put
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: in an effort and beat Chicago, but that ended a
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: losing streaks, So maybe that's good for Sacramento. Maybe they
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: have some momentum now. Coming into this game, and they
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: look like the team that's putting in more effort. Right now,
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 1: Kings have flipped to a three point favorite in this one.
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 1: When would you ever want to lay points with the Kings?
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: Man six tickets ninety eight percent of the cash on
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 1: the Pacers though, so the money's coming in on the Pacers.
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: I kind of lean to the Kings. I don't know, man,
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: this is There's no way that I would have my
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: money on the side in this game. In any way.
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: The over might be in consideration here because when you
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 1: got two teams that are playing out the stretch a
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 1: lot of times, you just won't get a lot of
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: defensive intensity, you know what I mean. Kind of like
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: that last week in the NFL when teams if you
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: got two teams with nothing to play for playing each other,
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 1: you know, players don't want to get injured and stuff
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: like that. You know, it kind of turns into a scrimmage.
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 1: This could be that type of game. But the total
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: has already gone up about four points, so you're losing
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: some value on the total there. It's a two thirty
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: six now, but an over would probably be preferable to
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: the side in that game. And then that means my
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: play is actually in the NBC Peacock Late Game, Minnesota
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 1: at the Lakers. This is the best bet. Let's do it.
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: We're gonna play in the Minnesota Timberwolves in this game.
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 1: This is one of those games where it's a team
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: is never as good as they look in their worst game,
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: and a team is never A team is never as
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 1: good as they look in their best game. Team is
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 1: never as bad as they look in their worst. And
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 1: I think that's what we have going on in this game.
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is a road favorite for and by the way,
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: because the Lakers are not as good as people think
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: they are. They're certainly not a good defensive team. Minnesota.
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 1: I know, they did just have a wind streak snapped,
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times I don't like that when
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: a team has a wind streak snapped, they'll be hung over.
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: But this spot looks really good for Minnesota because it
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: was a horrible performance from them. They got blown out
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 1: by Orlando, but if you dig into that box score,
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: it wasn't really what it looked like except well, yeah,
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: Orlando did dominate them in the paint, which I don't love.
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 1: But other than that, Minnesota had one of the worst
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: shooting performances you'll ever see, thirty six percent from the field.
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 1: That's just not gonna do anything, man, So I think
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get some positive regression for Minnesota. They're not
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 1: gonna shoot that poorly. Again, they have a couple of
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 1: days off. I know, I don't like when teams have
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: to go start a road trip on the Pacific coast,
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 1: but at least for Minnesota, they have two days off
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 1: to try to adjust to it. They're coming off a loss.
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: You know they're gonna be focused after an embarrassing home
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 1: loss like that. Starting a road trip as well usually
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: a focused spot, and at least they're not an East
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: Coast team so they can more easily adjust to the
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: time zone for that reason. But this also is not
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: a good spot for the Lakers because the Lakers just
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: had an extremely impressive blowout win over the Knicks. That's
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 1: got to be really really satisfying, man. And even though
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 1: I guess they'll still show up for a TV game
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota, Minnesota I think is definitely the better team
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 1: here and in the much better spot here. The Lakers
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 1: also beat Minnesota both times they played them this year,
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: so I think Minnesota has a little bit of kind
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 1: of revenge in mind here the Lakers. I think that
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 1: was revenge for the Lakers for getting bounced from the
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 1: playoffs last year by Minnesota, if I'm not mistaken. So
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 1: the Lakers pretty much already got their revenge now, and
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 1: I think that's kind of on the other foot now.
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 1: The Lakers beat Minnesota the second game of the season
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 1: to get that revenge by eighteen. I think I actually
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 1: gave out the Lakers as a play in that one.
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 1: And then they actually won at Minnesota in October. By
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 1: these teams haven't played since then. And you remember my
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 1: complaint about Minnesota back then was Minnesota can't beat good teams.
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 1: They hadn't beaten any team with a winning record for
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 1: a long time. But Minnesota is still one of the
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 1: better teams in the NBA. And since then, you know,
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 1: they've started beating better teams. I mean, they have wins
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 1: against Oklahoma City, Denver recently. You know, they've beaten some
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 1: of the best teams. They've beaten San Antonio. Yeah, so
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 1: that's out the window. They've beaten some of the best
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 1: teams in the NBA, Oklahoma Citty multiple times. In fact,
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 1: the Knicks whatever you know. Minnesota is for real. I
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 1: think they're one of the top teams in the entire NBA,
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 1: to be honest. They're up to a three point favorite.
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 1: Now I found a two out there. You probably can
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 1: still find two and a halfs. I think at the
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 1: very least out there. Fifty percent tickets, seventy percent of
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 1: the cash on the t Wolves. We were playing the Twolves,
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 1: so we have two road favorites. Here go figure two
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 1: small road favorites. That's gonna do it. Those are my
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 1: players today. College basketball take the points with Mercy Hurst
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 1: in the basically fake NEC final now, because Long Island
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 1: is already in the NCAA tournament, so very very rare
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: spot with the ineligibility transition stuff, we're gonna take Mercyhurst there. Hockey,
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 1: we got the Islanders on the money line. We're keeping
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: it really limited today. Two small road favorites and then
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 1: the Tea Wolves minus the points in the NBA. That's it.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 1: Let's have some wins today. Man, have a good day, everybody.
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Everybody. I appreciate it. Kyle, thanks
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 1: for hanging out, Zach, mister Pinsey, all the regulars. I
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 1: appreciated guys. Noted Gems, thanks for hanging out as well.
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 1: Man Uncut Gems. I should rewatch that. At some point
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 1: I kind of forget the movie. I don't know, but
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 1: I'm watching that guy's new movie right now to prepare
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 1: for the Oscars, which I know sounds terrible, but it's yeah,
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 1: Marty Supreme, It's I'm it's certainly not the worst of
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 1: the Oscar contenders already, it can't be. Like. I'm kind
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 1: of enjoy it, even though it still has, you know,
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 1: the typical stupid, you know, mainstream history narrative bullshit that
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: goes on there, you know, related to that thing that
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 1: you're not allowed the one thing that you're really not
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 1: allowed to talk about. But it's still a pretty entertaining movie.
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 1: And I'm not a fan of Timothy Shalome at all,
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: but this is like probably his best role that I've
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 1: that I've ever seen, and where he's kind of this
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 1: like like douchebag ping pong player, so you know, in
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: the nineteen fifties and whatever, so, you know, more suitable
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 1: role there. I'm kind of enjoying it so far. That's
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Learn to Toad on Twitter. You can
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 1: subscribe to me there. If you want to throw me
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: some support, learn a tone on Instagram and I put
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 1: out short form content like this on there, reiterating my
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 1: plays like subscribe here of course boosts the channel. Man
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 1: give me you know, leave me replies. Tell everybody about it,
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 1: not to gems. Yeah, tell everybody about everybody. Mister has
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: told people about it. What else do I have to
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 1: plug here? This show is also on audio, Apple and Spotify.
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 1: You can listen over there. It is monetized. I don't
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 1: get much from it, but you can listen over there.
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 1: Give me good reviews over there. Boost that stuff. I
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: have a Ukulele cover channel covered in Yuke that's on
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 1: YouTube as well. You can check that out Patreon, dot com,
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 1: slash and learner toad. If you want to just throw
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 1: me some support, I try to throw it. I have
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 1: some bonus you content I try to throw in there.
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not very good at at keeping up with it
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 1: and doing the requests or whatever. I apologize. Maybe I
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have offered it, you know, it's just, you know,
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 1: the requests just get a little bit insane. I'm gonna
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 1: probably have to do something about that and be like
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna limit it to, you know, just doing covers
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 1: at my discretion basically, and then Loser casts will be
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 1: back tonight at ten pm, so you can check that out.
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 1: If you want me in a more comedy setting, you
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 1: can go check that out tonight. I haven't picked a
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 1: loser for tonight yet. Gotta figure something out and Nana lose.
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 1: All right, Yes, I do the theme song for that
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 1: show as well. That's gonna do it. Thanks guys, I'll
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 1: be back tomorrow morning. I suppose we're getting it's The
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 1: brackets are gonna be out on Sunday, man, and then
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 1: it becomes crunch time. Monday is the crunch day where
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 1: you gotta crunch everything, try to figure out what you
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 1: want to do with your bracket. Last year I did
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 1: a reaction show on Sunday night, so I might still
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 1: do that. And then I did my bracket I think
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 1: on the last day, like when the last playing games
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 1: are happening. I think I did my bracket special on
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 1: on Wednesday night where I showed you me filling out
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 1: my actual bracket. I only fill out one bracket of integrity,
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 1: like Mike Greenberg, Is it Greeney? That does? I think
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 1: it is? I think it's him. I was more of
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 1: a fan of go Look though, because I'm I'm always
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 1: more of a fan of the large men that like
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 1: to eat. So, you know, on the Mike and Mike show,
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 1: that used to exist, but I think they hated each
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 1: other probably and that's why that show broke up. And
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 1: then yeah, so yeah, there's gonna be a lot more
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 1: bracket content. I'm also gonna fill out my women's bracket
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 1: that when I put way less effort into. You see,
• 2:01:08
  Speaker 1: I get all the spreadsheets and I do all the
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 1: game theory for the men's one. The women's bracket is
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 1: really women's has like no parody, dude, So it's really
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 1: just like pick the best teams and the women's So
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 1: I just don't put as much effort into that one,
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 1: and I usually have a pretty good bracknet. Anyway, Yukon
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 1: is gonna win, Okay, they're an undefeated team and they're
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 1: like easily the best teams, So, oh my god, I
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 1: just gave it away already. You know. So the women's bracket,
• 2:01:34
  Speaker 1: you gotta find like leverage points otherwise in the bracket,
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 1: but you could still do that because everybody's gonna be
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 1: picking the same champion and it's probably not the incorrect champion,
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 1: so that's gonna do it, man, But yeah, have a
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 1: lot of bracket content. March Madness is in full swing.
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 1: The games start shortly piece guys,