Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Week 1 of College Football with Scooch and Connor O'Gara from Saturday Down South

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Week 1 of College Football with Scooch and Connor O'Gara from Saturday Down South · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Millman. Listen. Week one of college football is
0:17
Speaker 1: coming up, and uh we have an amazing guest later
0:21
Speaker 1: on the show. Connor O'Gara at c J O'Gara on Twitter.
0:26
Speaker 1: He is a columnist for Saturday down South. He's got
0:29
Speaker 1: great insight into betting the Week one games since he's
0:33
Speaker 1: been covering this thing non stop and it is all
0:36
Speaker 1: over it for Saturday down South dot com. But first up,
0:41
Speaker 1: as always Bookmaker of the World from Boyd Gaming. Here
0:46
Speaker 1: he comes Mr Bob Scoocci, my brother Chad. What's going on, Scooch?
1:09
Speaker 1: We want to college football is here. I feel like
1:11
Speaker 1: college football is getting bigger and bigger every year. And
1:14
Speaker 1: I know that sort of sounds weird, Like why do
1:17
Speaker 1: you feel that way when this spoart has been a
1:19
Speaker 1: massively popular sport for a hundred and fifty years. But
1:23
Speaker 1: here's the truth. Um, The ratings for that Miami Florida
1:28
Speaker 1: game were massive. Our numbers on the first Saturday of
1:32
Speaker 1: college football were massive. They were rivaling what we had
1:35
Speaker 1: done during March Madness, which are the biggest days we've
1:38
Speaker 1: ever had. I would bet that the activity in your
1:41
Speaker 1: sports book for basically two prime college football games was extraordinary.
1:48
Speaker 1: And my take is that betting has a lot to
1:50
Speaker 1: do with it. What do you think, I think absolutely.
1:54
Speaker 1: I think you know now that uh sports books are
1:57
Speaker 1: up and running in eight different states, uh uh, that
2:00
Speaker 1: the mass appeal is starting to to really take effect
2:04
Speaker 1: in both betting and viewership. I think, you know, there's
2:07
Speaker 1: always been the relationship between betting and watching, you know,
2:11
Speaker 1: particularly if there's a team that's supposed to win by
2:13
Speaker 1: twenty or thirty points. Unless there's kind of a rooting
2:16
Speaker 1: interest from a betting perspective, you know, what else is
2:19
Speaker 1: there to kind of keep you captivated watching that game.
2:22
Speaker 1: So I think the viewership is directly related to to betting,
2:26
Speaker 1: and I think I think both are going to be
2:28
Speaker 1: getting bigger and bigger in the next two years. So
2:31
Speaker 1: let's let's talk about that Miami versus Florida game. That
2:34
Speaker 1: total on that game was anywhere from I think as
2:38
Speaker 1: low as forty five or forty six all the way
2:40
Speaker 1: up to maybe fifty and the final score in the
2:45
Speaker 1: last three minutes, there was a litany of pass interference calls,
2:50
Speaker 1: fumbles that were recovered by Miami. Um, all these things
2:54
Speaker 1: that from the perspective of under betters probably had them youing,
3:00
Speaker 1: like there is already some kind of karmic conspiracy against them,
3:05
Speaker 1: Like the gas just did not want that game to
3:08
Speaker 1: go under. Um what side of the game where the
3:11
Speaker 1: books on? And uh tell me how you were feeling
3:13
Speaker 1: during that game at the end? Uh? Probably so the
3:17
Speaker 1: books needed the favorite. We needed Florida. We opened the game.
3:21
Speaker 1: I think we're as high as eight at one point.
3:23
Speaker 1: We closed at seven. A lot of money coming in
3:25
Speaker 1: on Miami. And I actually liked the underdog in that game.
3:29
Speaker 1: Just from from keeping track of a local kid tape Martel,
3:33
Speaker 1: the Martel Tate or the kid from multiple high school
3:38
Speaker 1: here that is on the team. I knew that they
3:42
Speaker 1: would be a live dog in that game. So um,
3:45
Speaker 1: uh we didn't. We didn't need Miami. But obviously they played.
3:50
Speaker 1: They played a great game. From the under perspective, we
3:53
Speaker 1: needed it to stay under, so that that worked in
3:56
Speaker 1: our favor. I think. Uh, just most of the public
3:58
Speaker 1: were on the over. Uh, some of the sharp betters
4:01
Speaker 1: were on the under. But you know the way that
4:03
Speaker 1: the game ended, I mean, obviously there was a lot
4:05
Speaker 1: of penalties throughout the game. I think Miami played a
4:07
Speaker 1: little bit of a sloppy game from the penalty perspective
4:11
Speaker 1: of it. Um you know, from someone watching sports from
4:17
Speaker 1: a betting angle for all these years, it's it's nothing
4:20
Speaker 1: uncommon to me to see that kind of effect. Like
4:23
Speaker 1: in other words, you're rooting for a particular over or
4:26
Speaker 1: under and you think that there's something going on to
4:29
Speaker 1: prevent it from hitting that number, and it's just the
4:31
Speaker 1: way it goes. There's nobody orchestrating that. So let me
4:34
Speaker 1: just kind of clear that up right away. I've seen
4:38
Speaker 1: I've seen a lot of games that you think, are
4:41
Speaker 1: you know, it can't possibly go this way, and it does. Uh.
4:45
Speaker 1: But in the sports book, people were just kind of
4:49
Speaker 1: like it was pretty loud a cheering on every play
4:52
Speaker 1: because half the half the room had the over, the
4:54
Speaker 1: other half had the under. So I think it's exciting
4:57
Speaker 1: when it's kind of sitting right at the number like
4:59
Speaker 1: that teams right in the red zone and that kind
5:02
Speaker 1: of puts the game over and affects the money line
5:05
Speaker 1: that could it couldn't have started with a better game
5:07
Speaker 1: to hop In the college football you do forget. It's
5:09
Speaker 1: almost like a muscle. Like you gotta work out how
5:12
Speaker 1: different the feeling is when you are sweating a football
5:18
Speaker 1: game versus anything else. It is a different pace, there's
5:22
Speaker 1: a different dramatic note to the rhythm of watching football
5:28
Speaker 1: and sort of how everything builds up to sort of
5:32
Speaker 1: a climax that is just a couple of seconds long.
5:35
Speaker 1: I don't mean a double entendre there, and and uh
5:39
Speaker 1: because it is like you it's you don't feel that
5:42
Speaker 1: way when you're sweating a basketball game or sweating a
5:44
Speaker 1: baseball game, as you do when you're sweating a football game.
5:47
Speaker 1: You just don't. It's like it's an entirely different muscle. Yeah, no, absolutely.
5:52
Speaker 1: You know, there's so much drama in football, partially because,
5:55
Speaker 1: like you said, the pace of the game. You know,
5:57
Speaker 1: you're leading up to the particular play, so the dramas
6:00
Speaker 1: kind of enhancing. You don't get that in basketball because
6:03
Speaker 1: it's so fluid, it's back and forth. You only get
6:05
Speaker 1: it in basketball at the end, you know, the last
6:07
Speaker 1: twenty seconds of the game, when there's a lot of
6:09
Speaker 1: timeouts and you're kind of building up to that last shot.
6:12
Speaker 1: But uh, in football, you get so much drama on
6:15
Speaker 1: key plays during the game. You know, those third down
6:18
Speaker 1: plays that kind of make or break whether your your
6:21
Speaker 1: team is going to cover. So um, like I said,
6:23
Speaker 1: it's exciting to see it back. Uh after after a
6:27
Speaker 1: long off season and sweat baseball games. It's great to
6:31
Speaker 1: get back in the football swing of things. Meanwhile, in
6:33
Speaker 1: the middle of all that, Adam Schefter tweets out that
6:36
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck is retiring forces Andrew Luck to up the
6:40
Speaker 1: schedule for when he was going to release that news
6:42
Speaker 1: and go from Sunday to Saturday night. Um. I know
6:46
Speaker 1: at the Action Network we were immediately in slack trading messages.
6:49
Speaker 1: What is this due to the future odds? What is
6:52
Speaker 1: this due to the division odds? What is this due
6:54
Speaker 1: to the win totals? How are we updating the fantasy
6:56
Speaker 1: pro the fantasy projections and models? Um? What is that
7:00
Speaker 1: moment like for you in a sports book when a
7:03
Speaker 1: high profile player like Andrew Luck is unexpectedly announcing his retirement.
7:09
Speaker 1: It's zero to sixty in like you know, two seconds,
7:12
Speaker 1: you're trying to scramble to find out everything that impacts
7:17
Speaker 1: uh that that his retiring impact that you have on
7:20
Speaker 1: the betting board. So right right away we try to
7:23
Speaker 1: suspend betting on Game one, the preseason game game game one,
7:27
Speaker 1: of the regular season odds to win the division, odds
7:30
Speaker 1: to win the a f C, odds to win the
7:32
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and any other props that are associated with it.
7:35
Speaker 1: So you know, eventually then we'll eventually adjust. So we
7:39
Speaker 1: went from the season win total from nine and a
7:41
Speaker 1: half down to seven and a half. We we moved
7:44
Speaker 1: their future odds in the a f C from uh
7:47
Speaker 1: to one to I'm sorry, from six to one up
7:50
Speaker 1: to fifty to one. And then the odds to win
7:53
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, we we went from five to one
7:57
Speaker 1: to two and fifty to one. So you know, everything
8:00
Speaker 1: is just fast and furious and when and you have
8:02
Speaker 1: to move quickly before all the bets come in. And
8:05
Speaker 1: you know he's not the only one. And I've often said,
8:08
Speaker 1: you know, we kind of kind of like the stock market.
8:10
Speaker 1: You buy on the rumor and you sell on the news.
8:14
Speaker 1: That the betters are going to take a chance as
8:16
Speaker 1: soon as they hear something, whether it's actual or not.
8:19
Speaker 1: You know, they take a shot on betting on the
8:22
Speaker 1: rumor and then if it turns out to be true,
8:24
Speaker 1: then they could either try and get off the bet
8:27
Speaker 1: or kind of hedge in some way. So we have
8:30
Speaker 1: to be really quick because as soon as we hear
8:32
Speaker 1: the rumor, we we take the betting off until we
8:34
Speaker 1: kind of assessed the situation and so how long have
8:38
Speaker 1: were you down? And then when did you go back up?
8:41
Speaker 1: So as soon as we knew that it was for real,
8:43
Speaker 1: you know that that he was definitely retiring, that this
8:46
Speaker 1: was not just kind of the lip service. Um, then
8:49
Speaker 1: we went up as soon as the next day, as
8:52
Speaker 1: soon as we knew that it was for real, and
8:54
Speaker 1: then we adjusted everything. We adjusted the division odds, the
8:57
Speaker 1: FC odds. We went in game one, the Chargers were
9:01
Speaker 1: a three point favorite. They're now a seven point favorite
9:03
Speaker 1: without luck. So made made a lot of adjustments very quickly. Um.
9:08
Speaker 1: And then you know in other instances, you know, we're
9:11
Speaker 1: like Cam Newton was in a walking boot. You know,
9:13
Speaker 1: we do the same thing there and then we then
9:15
Speaker 1: we adjust, and you know, it's just constantly you have
9:18
Speaker 1: to pay attention. You have to look at as many
9:21
Speaker 1: sources as you can to see what's real and what's
9:25
Speaker 1: kind of expect it. Uh. I feel like you didn't
9:30
Speaker 1: adjust enough. A lot of other books went from nine
9:33
Speaker 1: and a half down to six and a half on
9:34
Speaker 1: the Colts that we didn't adjust enough. Yeah, so I
9:42
Speaker 1: I mean, we'll let the money dictate it. But right
9:47
Speaker 1: now at at seven and a half, um, we're still
9:52
Speaker 1: getting We're not getting any big bets, but we probably
9:56
Speaker 1: should adjust a little bit more. Um. I guess we'll
10:00
Speaker 1: see how how they look in their their their final
10:04
Speaker 1: game with I don't know if Jacoby Brissett is going
10:07
Speaker 1: to get any playing time, but they've they've they've got
10:09
Speaker 1: to make some moves quick. I think you're gonna find that.
10:11
Speaker 1: I'm right, I think you're gonna find that from now on,
10:13
Speaker 1: you probably should call me before you make any big,
10:18
Speaker 1: high profile moves because I'm very attuned to, uh, the
10:23
Speaker 1: consumer markets when it comes to betting. Well, the reality
10:28
Speaker 1: is that the Colts had a really good team. Obviously
10:32
Speaker 1: Luck is is is a big part of that. And
10:34
Speaker 1: not only mean that as a pun uh, I mean
10:41
Speaker 1: some of the conversation was, you know, should should Luck
10:44
Speaker 1: go through rehab half the season with the understanding that
10:47
Speaker 1: Brissett could probably take them to a four four record
10:50
Speaker 1: going into the latter half of the season, So you know,
10:52
Speaker 1: if he's expected to get four wins just the first
10:56
Speaker 1: half of the season. You know, it's not a big
10:58
Speaker 1: stretch that he could eke out, Uh you know, another
11:00
Speaker 1: another three. Uh So I don't know, you're I'm kind
11:05
Speaker 1: of talking myself out of what my number is, kind
11:08
Speaker 1: of leading towards going on to the seven and a half.
11:10
Speaker 1: So as always, Chad, you are right. You know. Also
11:13
Speaker 1: with your punt, you have made this the most literate
11:15
Speaker 1: betting podcast in the history of betting podcasts, the most
11:20
Speaker 1: literate podcast that. By the way, well, I'll get us
11:24
Speaker 1: some listeners, the favorite, the most literate betting podcast in town.
11:32
Speaker 1: That'll amp up the numbers. Hey, listen, By the way,
11:34
Speaker 1: I don't forget people. Connor Garrett from Saturday Down South
11:37
Speaker 1: is coming on next. He's going to talk a lot
11:39
Speaker 1: about this weekend's week one for college football. The best
11:42
Speaker 1: that he likes the most, UM, the team outside of
11:46
Speaker 1: the the most obvious college football playoff favorites that he
11:51
Speaker 1: would put his money on, UM, the top twenty five
11:54
Speaker 1: that he thinks is the best value this weekend. UM.
11:57
Speaker 1: And if he had to choose between the two biggest
11:58
Speaker 1: favorites to bet this weekend, Clemson it minus thirty seven
12:05
Speaker 1: and a half over Georgia Tech or Penn State minus
12:07
Speaker 1: thirty nine over Idaho. Who would you choose to bet
12:11
Speaker 1: on if you had to bet one of the favorites?
12:13
Speaker 1: Connor is going to answer all those questions, Scooch, Who
12:17
Speaker 1: would you bet? Who would you bet if you had
12:18
Speaker 1: to bet? Uh? You had to bet Penn State minus
12:22
Speaker 1: thirty nine or a Clemson minus thirty seven and a half.
12:26
Speaker 1: I'm taking Clemson just against Georgia. How come? Well, you know,
12:35
Speaker 1: I'm just you're just throwing it at me, so, uh well,
12:38
Speaker 1: I'm asking you to take Why are you taking Clemson
12:40
Speaker 1: is the biggest favorite? These were the two biggest favorites
12:42
Speaker 1: in the top So why would you take Clemson instead
12:46
Speaker 1: of Penn State? More confidence in who? Who would run
12:52
Speaker 1: up a score more? Uh, out of those two teams?
12:56
Speaker 1: And I think and I think it would just be
12:58
Speaker 1: Clemson that would be able to put up you know,
13:00
Speaker 1: fifty six points, knowing what their offenses is capable of.
13:05
Speaker 1: And and I just have more confidence that in Clemson's
13:09
Speaker 1: offense than ten states that that they're going to put
13:12
Speaker 1: up like a fifty or sixty spot. Yeah, I don't
13:15
Speaker 1: disagree with you. I also don't like the fact that
13:17
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech is basically trying to build a brand new
13:19
Speaker 1: offense right now. Um, and then I got to open
13:22
Speaker 1: the season against one of the generationally great college football teams,
13:27
Speaker 1: against a quarterback who might end up winning the Heisman
13:30
Speaker 1: this year and in the year after winning a national
13:32
Speaker 1: title as a freshman, and will probably end up his
13:35
Speaker 1: career as like as storied as Paul Horning. You know
13:39
Speaker 1: what I mean? M M, yeah, I just came up
13:43
Speaker 1: with that. I didn't need the time. Just off the
13:47
Speaker 1: top of your head. Just rattle it off. Give me
13:49
Speaker 1: the five games right now that the wise guys are
13:51
Speaker 1: betting the most as we head into Week one. Um,
13:57
Speaker 1: a little bit on Texas over Louise louise An Attech
14:00
Speaker 1: got some some big money there. What's the number Texas
14:03
Speaker 1: over law Tech. Yeah, so we went from we went
14:09
Speaker 1: from nineteen and a half up to twenty one and
14:11
Speaker 1: a half. Um, Missouri over Wyoming, big move there. Number
14:20
Speaker 1: went from fourteen and a half up to seventeen and
14:23
Speaker 1: a half. So a lot of money on on Missouri there.
14:27
Speaker 1: Do you feel like three points in college football between
14:30
Speaker 1: a team that is you know, SEC, even if it's
14:33
Speaker 1: missoo that isn't going to do anything special this offseason
14:36
Speaker 1: or this this postseason versus Wyoming. Do you think three
14:40
Speaker 1: points is a big move? Like what makes that a
14:42
Speaker 1: big move to you? Well, I will say in college
14:46
Speaker 1: football that three point moves are more the norm than
14:49
Speaker 1: they ever used to be. Yeah, that's what I mean.
14:52
Speaker 1: We are Yeah, no, absolutely, um so if you if
14:57
Speaker 1: you know that, that's also why if you look at
14:59
Speaker 1: teas your payouts, six point teaser in college football, uh
15:04
Speaker 1: as a lot more than a six point teaser in
15:08
Speaker 1: NFL football for that very reason that the six points
15:11
Speaker 1: in the NFL means a lot more uh than it
15:14
Speaker 1: than it does in college and so so yeah, we
15:16
Speaker 1: are seeing those those those bigger swings um uh style
15:20
Speaker 1: of game. You know, the scoring is up in college football,
15:25
Speaker 1: so there's a there's a number of factors that kind
15:28
Speaker 1: of lessen the value of one point move or three
15:31
Speaker 1: point move. So but we have seen it, have noticed
15:34
Speaker 1: it all right, Um what else you got? Um A
15:40
Speaker 1: lot on U c l A against Cincinnati. That's another um,
15:45
Speaker 1: I mean that's around the key numbers. So not a
15:48
Speaker 1: big line move, but just a lot of money on
15:51
Speaker 1: on U c l A. Um. Probably the biggest, Uh, Wisconsin.
15:59
Speaker 1: We have a lot of money, but I mean that's
16:01
Speaker 1: kind of a public game over South Florida that uh
16:05
Speaker 1: minus twelve and a half. Not that's probably not sharp money.
16:09
Speaker 1: That's in fact, we have a couple of sharp bets
16:11
Speaker 1: on South Florida there, but just a ton of money
16:13
Speaker 1: on Wisconsin. And the other one that the wise guys
16:16
Speaker 1: are on where the public is on the opposite team
16:19
Speaker 1: is Oklahoma State Oregon State. Oklahoma State's minus thirteen and
16:23
Speaker 1: a half now and the public is overwhelmingly on oak State,
16:27
Speaker 1: but the wise guys are on Oregon State. So a
16:30
Speaker 1: lot of money on Oregon State there. And we've gone
16:34
Speaker 1: from seventeen down to fourteen and a half on that one,
16:38
Speaker 1: or seventeen down the thirteen and a half on that
16:40
Speaker 1: one again. Yeah, Oregon State, one of the worst teams
16:44
Speaker 1: of the past decade, is getting that much money against
16:49
Speaker 1: a high flying Mike Gundee Oklahoma State cowboy offense. What's
16:53
Speaker 1: going on there? Yeah, that that one scares me a
16:56
Speaker 1: little bit. I Mean, I know Oregon States a lot
17:00
Speaker 1: going to be a lot better than than they have
17:02
Speaker 1: been in previous seasons, but that's not saying much. Getting
17:06
Speaker 1: double digits at home. Uh, it's a wise guy play,
17:10
Speaker 1: but to this extent, uh scares me a little bit.
17:13
Speaker 1: And I don't want to be in a position where
17:15
Speaker 1: I'm sitting at thirteen and a half too long because
17:17
Speaker 1: the public is on Oak State. Uh. You know, I'll
17:20
Speaker 1: be quick to move this right back up as we
17:23
Speaker 1: as we draw closer to game time. And that's another
17:25
Speaker 1: thing that we have seen a trend as well. We've
17:28
Speaker 1: seen a lot of these big points swings, but we
17:31
Speaker 1: half of them go back to the opening number. So
17:34
Speaker 1: it's kind of deciphering which ones are the real plays
17:37
Speaker 1: and which ones are just kind of trying to manipulate
17:41
Speaker 1: the market. Someone's trying to you're ready. Are you ready?
17:44
Speaker 1: Oh my god, talking about literate Here you go, You're ready.
17:47
Speaker 1: Someone's trying to screw the scooch. That is literal, you
17:55
Speaker 1: get it, instead of like a pun on screw the pooch. Yeah. Yeah,
17:59
Speaker 1: they're just trying to screw the scooch. We are so
18:02
Speaker 1: we are so punny. It's a roll. Oh my god,
18:08
Speaker 1: we have better stuff. Hey, here's my last question for you,
18:11
Speaker 1: my last question for you before I let you go. Uh,
18:14
Speaker 1: we are seventy two hours or so away from kickoff
18:18
Speaker 1: for Week one fifty games this weekend. You will then
18:22
Speaker 1: sort of have a really good sense of where you
18:23
Speaker 1: are most vulnerable for the national title. Right now, what
18:27
Speaker 1: team makes you the most vulnerable to win the national title?
18:32
Speaker 1: It's probably Georgia you're talking about, like in in terms
18:35
Speaker 1: of future ability and yeah, yeah, yeah, there was. There
18:39
Speaker 1: was just a lot of money on Georgia. I figured
18:41
Speaker 1: they were the best team to contend with Clemson in Alabama. Um,
18:45
Speaker 1: Notre Dame is right up there again, just because of
18:47
Speaker 1: their popularity in their national appeal. Uh, not so much
18:51
Speaker 1: because from a wise guy perspective, but certainly a lot
18:53
Speaker 1: of people like Georgia. I'm so glad to ask you
18:55
Speaker 1: that question, Scooch, because not even knowing that was the case,
18:58
Speaker 1: you have given me the perfect audition into our next
19:02
Speaker 1: guest who's going to talk a lot about why he
19:06
Speaker 1: loves Georgia to win it all, and that would be
19:10
Speaker 1: Connor O'Gara from Saturday Down South, Bob Scucci. As always,
19:13
Speaker 1: thank you for coming on your podcast. You're on every
19:15
Speaker 1: week now Football Season Star every week through the end
19:19
Speaker 1: of the years. Alright, alright, buddy, thanks man. As promised
19:26
Speaker 1: the next up on the Favorites the podcast. It's almost
19:30
Speaker 1: like this guy's my doppelganger. Connor O'Gara at c J
19:36
Speaker 1: O'Gara c J o g A r A on Twitter,
19:41
Speaker 1: Senior national columns for the Senior national columnist for Saturday
19:47
Speaker 1: down South dot com, co host of the Saturday Down
19:50
Speaker 1: South podcast. You know what that means. He knows a
19:52
Speaker 1: lot about college football, especially in the South, and he's
19:56
Speaker 1: from Chicago. He graduated from IU Indiana University, the only EU,
20:02
Speaker 1: and also got parking tickets parked outside of Ernie Platlehall
20:06
Speaker 1: when we both were working at the Indiana Daily Students,
20:09
Speaker 1: separated by mere decades. Connor, thanks for coming on the podcast, man, Yeah,
20:14
Speaker 1: thanks for thanks for having me. It's always it's always
20:17
Speaker 1: great to meet uh, to meet an i U alone,
20:19
Speaker 1: I feel like it's such a small world. At the
20:21
Speaker 1: same time, the alumni base is it's so massive. Even
20:24
Speaker 1: down here in Orlando. I'll run into Indiana alums every
20:27
Speaker 1: once in a while and I'm like, oh, yeah, that's
20:29
Speaker 1: that's what happens when you go with the Kent school
20:31
Speaker 1: that had like forty moment So, um, did you actually
20:36
Speaker 1: go to i U football games, because I did. I
20:38
Speaker 1: think I was the only person who basically went to
20:40
Speaker 1: every i U football game. Yeah, I mean defined go
20:43
Speaker 1: to if go to means go to tailgates, and I mean, yeah,
20:47
Speaker 1: I went through a ton about you football games. But um, yeah,
20:50
Speaker 1: I mean I went to pretty much every game as
20:52
Speaker 1: a freshman, and sophomore year that kind of faded, and
20:55
Speaker 1: then junior year I covered the team for for the
20:59
Speaker 1: Indiana Daily Students, so I was at every game, and
21:01
Speaker 1: then senior year, yeah, I've got back to my tailgating
21:04
Speaker 1: ways a little bit more so. But yeah, I can't
21:07
Speaker 1: say that I sat there and it became a die
21:09
Speaker 1: hard IU football fans. So when you were covering in
21:12
Speaker 1: college football, is that when you sort of got the
21:15
Speaker 1: bug and you're like, I gotta do this full time.
21:17
Speaker 1: I gotta find a way to do this for a living,
21:19
Speaker 1: and then I gotta find a way to do it
21:21
Speaker 1: in an actual football region, not Indiana. You know, it's
21:25
Speaker 1: funny you mentioned that because back in the day of
21:28
Speaker 1: the way that the hierarchy used to work in a
21:30
Speaker 1: place like Indiana, we cover football so that we can
21:33
Speaker 1: cover basketball because that's what everybody cares about, and football.
21:37
Speaker 1: It's kind of the the step below the basketball beat.
21:40
Speaker 1: I remember getting to school at IU and being a
21:43
Speaker 1: freshman and and signing up to join the newspaper and
21:47
Speaker 1: just thinking to myself, man, if I could just cover
21:49
Speaker 1: the basketball team one day, that would be like made
21:51
Speaker 1: in the shade. And so I covered the football team
21:54
Speaker 1: as a junior and then did sports was sports editor
21:57
Speaker 1: my second semester that year, and then was fortunate enough
22:00
Speaker 1: to be able to cover basketball. But at the time,
22:01
Speaker 1: I kept thinking to myself, college basketball, I I could
22:04
Speaker 1: make a living doing that. And I didn't really have
22:06
Speaker 1: the college football itch. I didn't really grow up with
22:09
Speaker 1: it in the same way that so many people around
22:11
Speaker 1: my area down here did because I grew up in
22:14
Speaker 1: the northwest suburbs of Chicago, where you know, my aunt
22:16
Speaker 1: would take me to the Northwestern games and everyone saw
22:19
Speaker 1: that go down the Champagne for Nonois game, and it's
22:22
Speaker 1: just totally different atmosphere, so to me, you know, I
22:24
Speaker 1: was raised loving college basketball and in pro sports as
22:27
Speaker 1: well growing up where I did, so I didn't really
22:30
Speaker 1: get to college football. It's actually until I, you know,
22:33
Speaker 1: after I graduated, I worked out in Central Nebraska covering
22:36
Speaker 1: high school sports for a local newspaper. And you know,
22:39
Speaker 1: one of the things that I that I did with
22:40
Speaker 1: that is I would make the two hour drive every
22:43
Speaker 1: Saturday in the fall to go cover in Nebraska football
22:46
Speaker 1: home games, and seeing those I kind of just took
22:49
Speaker 1: me back and I was like, Wow, this college football
22:52
Speaker 1: really is as crazy as people say it is. And
22:54
Speaker 1: that ultimately is what led to this opportunity that I
22:57
Speaker 1: was able to get with Saturday down South and Saturday tradition.
23:00
Speaker 1: So yeah, in kind of a weird way, I guess
23:02
Speaker 1: that was the beginning of it. But at the time
23:05
Speaker 1: I was, I was focused on to a college basketball. Yeah.
23:07
Speaker 1: It's so funny you say that, because I remember, Uh,
23:10
Speaker 1: I was on the same path. I covered uh, I
23:14
Speaker 1: you women's volleyball, then I covered A you wrestling, then
23:19
Speaker 1: I covered I you baseball, and the next gig that
23:23
Speaker 1: I was going to get was I you football, and
23:25
Speaker 1: then I was going to cover AU basketball, and um
23:28
Speaker 1: that was like the path, right and um my junior year, uh,
23:34
Speaker 1: instead of staying in school, I went to London and
23:39
Speaker 1: first semester and so they didn't I couldn't cover the
23:41
Speaker 1: basketball team and I couldn't cover the football team. Um,
23:45
Speaker 1: so I missed out on covering a basketball I feel
23:48
Speaker 1: like it worked out okay, But that, like covering college
23:52
Speaker 1: football or college basketball for your school newspaper, is a
23:56
Speaker 1: phenomenal experience and like a phenomenal proving ground, Like you
24:00
Speaker 1: get to learn what it's like to cover something at
24:02
Speaker 1: a really high level for a place that very few
24:06
Speaker 1: people are reading, but everybody is passionate about it, and
24:08
Speaker 1: it means a lot of the players, like you get
24:11
Speaker 1: an outsized amount of attention. You get to deal with
24:14
Speaker 1: what it's like to be criticizing the people that you're
24:17
Speaker 1: covering and have them have to react to that. Oh. Absolutely,
24:21
Speaker 1: And it was just a fantastic way to get started.
24:23
Speaker 1: I always say to people, if you're in the journalism school,
24:27
Speaker 1: that's like cool, like great, you're taking classes that felt
24:30
Speaker 1: well and good. You are the real the real life,
24:33
Speaker 1: real world job experience. Actually being out in the field
24:36
Speaker 1: and doing student newspaper. I think should be a prerequisite
24:39
Speaker 1: for any journalism student, whether you want to do newspaper
24:42
Speaker 1: or not, or you know, into that field, because I
24:45
Speaker 1: think it just teaches you actually how to right and
24:47
Speaker 1: how to work on deadlines and to get to do
24:49
Speaker 1: so while covering a Big ten football program and a
24:53
Speaker 1: Big ten basketball program. It was just such a blessing,
24:56
Speaker 1: and I realized, looking back now, to be able to
24:58
Speaker 1: do that at you know, nine years old, it's just
25:02
Speaker 1: isn't such an incredible opportunity, And I'm I'm grateful that
25:05
Speaker 1: I was able to get that opportunity as early as
25:07
Speaker 1: I did. Alright, so let's get down to brass tacks here,
25:10
Speaker 1: because the college football season opens in earnest week this
25:14
Speaker 1: this weekend Week one. UH. Georgia is one of the
25:17
Speaker 1: most interesting teams to me, and obviously you're writing for
25:19
Speaker 1: Saturday down South, you're living in the South. Um, They're
25:22
Speaker 1: going to be at the centerpiece of a lot of conversations.
25:25
Speaker 1: Generally in the SEC, they've kind of been dominant, and
25:28
Speaker 1: you wrote about this earlier this summer, like what they've
25:32
Speaker 1: done the past two seasons with Kirby Smart, They've won
25:35
Speaker 1: every one of their games by fourteen points. Their average
25:38
Speaker 1: marketing margin of victory is twenty five points in seven
25:42
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty total minutes of game time, they've trailed
25:45
Speaker 1: nine and a half minutes in Kudos to Matt Mitchell,
25:47
Speaker 1: producer Podcast Extraordinaire, forgive me all these staffs from your story.
25:51
Speaker 1: So here's the question. Here's the question. Do you bet
25:56
Speaker 1: Georgia not to win the East or Alabama them not
26:00
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs? Well, I got Georgia winning the
26:04
Speaker 1: national championship. So where do I fall on that? Um?
26:07
Speaker 1: I think this is the year for for Georgia and
26:09
Speaker 1: I think that Bama makes the playoff as well. I
26:11
Speaker 1: think what ultimately happens. I know that's hedging a little bit,
26:15
Speaker 1: but UM, I think what ultimately happens this year is
26:18
Speaker 1: I think Bama goes into the SEC Championship undefeated, just
26:20
Speaker 1: as it did last year. Georgia goes in with one loss,
26:23
Speaker 1: just as it did last year. But this time, I
26:26
Speaker 1: think Georgia is finally able to get over the hump
26:28
Speaker 1: and I think they're finally able to beat Alabama and
26:31
Speaker 1: that paves the way and that's that's the remaining hurdle
26:34
Speaker 1: for them, and I think that they will ultimately go
26:35
Speaker 1: on to win two games and capture their first national
26:38
Speaker 1: championships in and now I've gone back and forth on
26:42
Speaker 1: it throughout the off season, but I just think that
26:43
Speaker 1: sense of urgency is there. I think they have the
26:46
Speaker 1: offensive line where they're going to be able to impose
26:48
Speaker 1: their will against basically everything that they face, maybe with
26:51
Speaker 1: the exception of a team like Auburn, and I'm including
26:53
Speaker 1: Alabama in that group. I think that that Auburn defensive
26:56
Speaker 1: line is just as good as it gets in the country.
26:59
Speaker 1: But Georgia's up front is just gonna be able to
27:01
Speaker 1: bully people. And I think that once they figure out
27:04
Speaker 1: what those receiving options are, I mean there's talent there.
27:06
Speaker 1: They got a couple of five star guys, George Pickens, uh,
27:09
Speaker 1: they got another one to Meetrice Robertson, who's a former
27:12
Speaker 1: Cal transfer who's expected to do some big things this year.
27:14
Speaker 1: Once they figure out what those weapons are, I think
27:17
Speaker 1: that this team is really going to take off. And
27:20
Speaker 1: you know, I've been high on Jake's brom since the
27:22
Speaker 1: first start that he made against Notre Dame two years ago,
27:25
Speaker 1: and I think that he is the type of guy
27:27
Speaker 1: that you won't leading your team. DeAndre Swift in the
27:29
Speaker 1: backfield is just uh just devastating. I mean that's the
27:33
Speaker 1: one word that I would use to describe him. And
27:35
Speaker 1: I think he will be in the highs and trophy conversation.
27:37
Speaker 1: So yeah, I am high on Georgean and that's to
27:39
Speaker 1: say I'm not high in Vama. I think your Avenge
27:41
Speaker 1: tour will go through the SEC. I think it will
27:43
Speaker 1: be another dominant year in the conference. But I think
27:46
Speaker 1: that George is just gonna finally have that thing to
27:48
Speaker 1: get over the hump. And I know people have said
27:50
Speaker 1: that before, but you know, I was there at the
27:52
Speaker 1: SEC championship last year and I just saw how close
27:55
Speaker 1: that game really was and and how just Georgia had
27:58
Speaker 1: him right where they wanted him. I mean, they really did,
28:00
Speaker 1: and then Joe Hurts came in and saved the day.
28:01
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm willing to put my chips on the
28:04
Speaker 1: dogs this year. I like the odds that they're getting
28:07
Speaker 1: as as compared to you know, Alabama Clumpston, which are
28:09
Speaker 1: the overwhelming favorites obviously to win a national championship this year.
28:12
Speaker 1: All right, So but you didn't really answer the question,
28:14
Speaker 1: because so then the answer is you would take you
28:21
Speaker 1: I guess you would take Alabama not making the playoffs
28:27
Speaker 1: because you wouldn't bet Georgia not winning the East. Well,
28:32
Speaker 1: I would bet Georgia winning the East. I Abama and
28:34
Speaker 1: making the playoffs as a four seed. So getting really
28:38
Speaker 1: really close, and then I have Yeah, I don't. I
28:40
Speaker 1: don't think Georgie is gonna lose the game in the division.
28:42
Speaker 1: I think they they're only regular seas and longest would
28:44
Speaker 1: be to Auburn, and then I would have Bama still
28:47
Speaker 1: getting into the playoffs even though they would lose to
28:50
Speaker 1: Georgia at twelve and oh, I think they would still
28:52
Speaker 1: get the four seed, and then they'd be able to
28:55
Speaker 1: beat out you know, like maybe they'd be able to
28:57
Speaker 1: beat out like a Washington or an Oklahoma, a team
29:00
Speaker 1: that could win a conference championship with one off and
29:02
Speaker 1: still not making it all right. So that answers my
29:05
Speaker 1: second question, which is Alabama to go over eleven wins
29:09
Speaker 1: is minus one sixty? Um? Stucky, who is our college
29:14
Speaker 1: football genius? You should everyone should go download the Action
29:17
Speaker 1: Network Colleges podcast. Um, because Stucky has been predicting all
29:22
Speaker 1: preseason that Alabama will lose at least one if not
29:25
Speaker 1: to the following world games Texas A and M at
29:29
Speaker 1: Mississippi State or at Auburn. So you clearly have them
29:35
Speaker 1: winning twelve games, you have them getting into the playoffs.
29:38
Speaker 1: Why do you feel that way? Why do you think
29:40
Speaker 1: that they won't succumb on the road to one of
29:44
Speaker 1: those three teams. Yeah, I just think that it's uh,
29:48
Speaker 1: it's the Vammer evengu Tour. I mean, I've seen the
29:50
Speaker 1: way that Nick Sabans teams respond to losing in the
29:54
Speaker 1: playoff or losing a bowl game. When Nick Sabans teams
29:57
Speaker 1: have come back after losing a bold game, he has
30:00
Speaker 1: won a national championship in four of those five years.
30:03
Speaker 1: And I realized that, I mean, not having Bama to
30:06
Speaker 1: win the national championship, Like, well, why don't you? But um, I,
30:10
Speaker 1: like I said, I just think Georgie is going to
30:11
Speaker 1: have that that advantage, and I think that Bama is
30:13
Speaker 1: ultimately gonna lose in the playoffs to Clemson. But you know,
30:16
Speaker 1: I don't think that Bama is gonna lose one of
30:18
Speaker 1: those road games. I think last year watching what they
30:22
Speaker 1: were able to do, and you know, let's let we
30:23
Speaker 1: talk about how easy the schedule was for BAMMA last year.
30:26
Speaker 1: At the same time, though, like let's not forget that
30:29
Speaker 1: they went into l s U in won that game
30:31
Speaker 1: twenty nine and nothing. I mean that that atmosphere was hustle,
30:35
Speaker 1: the top three LSU team and Bama went in there
30:38
Speaker 1: and just smacked him, just smacked him back to reality.
30:41
Speaker 1: I think that an anime is an interesting matchup. I
30:43
Speaker 1: almost wanted to pull the trigger on that because I
30:45
Speaker 1: think Calaman really is able to play to his competition.
30:48
Speaker 1: We saw that last year with what he did against
30:50
Speaker 1: that really good Clempson defensive line. I think he's actually
30:52
Speaker 1: played pretty well against BAMA the last couple of years,
30:54
Speaker 1: and I don't think he's going to be intimidated by that.
30:56
Speaker 1: I think A and M has an interesting matchup in
30:58
Speaker 1: the trenches, but I still have Bamma winning that game.
31:01
Speaker 1: I still have them eating a really solid Mississippi State
31:04
Speaker 1: team this year as well. I understand that that game
31:06
Speaker 1: was really close a couple of years ago, alright, one
31:09
Speaker 1: of Jalen Hurts's best performances that people kind of forget about.
31:11
Speaker 1: He staged to come back there at in Starkville to
31:14
Speaker 1: be able to pull off that victory back in And Yeah,
31:17
Speaker 1: I think that they go into Jordan Hair this year
31:19
Speaker 1: and I think they beat Auburn. I think that to
31:22
Speaker 1: stretches that defense in a way that it is not
31:24
Speaker 1: necessarily going to be prepared to defend. And I think
31:26
Speaker 1: that that Bama completes another twelve and oh regular season.
31:29
Speaker 1: Although you know those games, I wouldn't It wouldn't absolutely
31:32
Speaker 1: stun me if one of those teams won't. But I'm
31:35
Speaker 1: just not predicting at this point. How much inflated? How
31:38
Speaker 1: inflated do you think Alabama is as a favorite in
31:41
Speaker 1: every single game? How much do you think bookmakers account
31:45
Speaker 1: for the public perception that Alabama, no matter where they're playing, uh,
31:50
Speaker 1: is going to be the team that gets all the money? Well,
31:53
Speaker 1: I mean, I think they accounted forward a lot, and
31:55
Speaker 1: I think they actually accounted for a little bit, maybe
31:58
Speaker 1: a little bit too much in this this first game,
32:00
Speaker 1: uh that you know, this line started at what thirty
32:03
Speaker 1: and a half or thirty and now it's at like
32:05
Speaker 1: thirty four and a half against Duke, And you know
32:08
Speaker 1: I'll be there on Saturday. And I actually just finished
32:11
Speaker 1: writing a column basically saying like, hey, you know, as
32:15
Speaker 1: much as I think Bama is going to dominate the opener,
32:17
Speaker 1: I know that saban has won twelve openers by an
32:20
Speaker 1: average of twenty eight point eight points, and they've just
32:23
Speaker 1: blown the water out of out of so many Power
32:25
Speaker 1: five teams to start the season. I could see a
32:28
Speaker 1: slower start for for Bama, and I it's kind of
32:30
Speaker 1: holding me back from saying, yeah, I'm just gonna give thirty,
32:33
Speaker 1: you know, thirty four and a half points. I could
32:35
Speaker 1: see a slower start just because I think Sarkesian trying
32:38
Speaker 1: to figure out what those you know, what the the
32:41
Speaker 1: offensive pieces are going to work like this year. I
32:43
Speaker 1: think that's gonna be a little bit of a of
32:45
Speaker 1: a tougher battle than some people are expecting, and I
32:48
Speaker 1: think there could potentially be a slow start. But I
32:50
Speaker 1: answer your question, I do think that Vegas usually accounts
32:52
Speaker 1: for that. I think that you know, Bama usually is
32:55
Speaker 1: going to get the better strait of the doubt when
32:57
Speaker 1: it comes to you know, anytime they face a group
32:59
Speaker 1: of five five or an FCS team, And I mean
33:02
Speaker 1: it is always really interesting now because the spread has
33:04
Speaker 1: gotten to the point where, you know, if we're talking
33:06
Speaker 1: about eight points whatever, it is like that that is
33:10
Speaker 1: actually something worth watching and these games could be back
33:12
Speaker 1: and forth in that department. But especially with the year
33:15
Speaker 1: that Alabama had last year, where I mean they just
33:17
Speaker 1: they blew teams out of the water, and that that
33:20
Speaker 1: high flying offense just kind of takes us to a
33:22
Speaker 1: new level. I think Vegas is absolutely going to account
33:24
Speaker 1: for that, and the fact that they have household names,
33:26
Speaker 1: you know, at the skill positions definitely helps them. Well.
33:29
Speaker 1: Speaking of which, so who are the five games? Which
33:32
Speaker 1: are the five games? Right now? When you're looking at
33:34
Speaker 1: this from a point spread perspective, where you're like, I
33:38
Speaker 1: know as much about college football as anybody, this one
33:41
Speaker 1: doesn't make sense to me. Oh that's a good question.
33:44
Speaker 1: So are we just talking week one? Are we talking
33:46
Speaker 1: week one this year? Just week week one? Okay? So
33:50
Speaker 1: I know this is unpopular, but I think Memphis covers
33:54
Speaker 1: that that six points spread against Old Miss. I think Memphis,
33:57
Speaker 1: Memphis is my pick this year to go to the
34:00
Speaker 1: New Year six as a group of five team. And
34:03
Speaker 1: I think that given how inexperienced Oldnesses, I mean, it's
34:06
Speaker 1: the least experienced team in terms of percentage of returning
34:09
Speaker 1: production of any team in the country on the offensive side,
34:13
Speaker 1: and I think that Memphis is able to to score
34:15
Speaker 1: a whole lot of points against an olemous defense has
34:17
Speaker 1: been really bad the last couple of years, and I
34:19
Speaker 1: think that that's six points to me. I'll take Memphis
34:23
Speaker 1: at home to to cover that even though they are
34:25
Speaker 1: a favorite, the rare group of five favorite over an
34:27
Speaker 1: SEC team, and then I don't know, I think you
34:30
Speaker 1: could go you could look at a lot of different places.
34:32
Speaker 1: I think I think that Auburn is ultimately going to
34:34
Speaker 1: cover against Oregon, and I know that that line has
34:36
Speaker 1: kind of gone back and forth a little bit, and
34:38
Speaker 1: there's concern about Refreshman starting in quarterback for Auburn. But
34:43
Speaker 1: I just go back to I think Auburn is gonna
34:45
Speaker 1: be so much better in the trenches than they were
34:47
Speaker 1: last year. And while Oregon might have the best offensive
34:50
Speaker 1: line in the country, at least one of them, I
34:53
Speaker 1: think that the Auburn defensive line is going to be
34:54
Speaker 1: able to put some pressure on Justin Herbert, and I
34:56
Speaker 1: think that they'll be able to cover even if that
34:58
Speaker 1: spread was four. I think at this point I would
35:01
Speaker 1: probably go with Auburn. I just have really really liked
35:04
Speaker 1: the offseason that Gus mils On has hat I think
35:06
Speaker 1: it's a play caller. I think he's gonna be able
35:08
Speaker 1: to do some good things offensively. So yeah, I mean,
35:11
Speaker 1: i'd probably look at at those games, and then you know,
35:13
Speaker 1: if if we're looking around, um, you know, I don't
35:16
Speaker 1: think L s u Is is a team that I'd
35:18
Speaker 1: want to bet on Week one, just because I think
35:21
Speaker 1: that with that game against Texas in Week two, they're
35:25
Speaker 1: facing a triple option team. L s u Is putting
35:28
Speaker 1: in a new RPO offense. It's gonna be in Week one.
35:31
Speaker 1: Maybe they don't want to show all the secrets to it.
35:34
Speaker 1: Covering twenty seven and a half point it seems like
35:36
Speaker 1: a lot. And that's coming from me as somebody who's
35:38
Speaker 1: very high ELSU offense. This year, I think there'll be
35:41
Speaker 1: a top twenty offense. I love Joe Burrow, but I
35:43
Speaker 1: think covering twenty seven and a half it seems like
35:45
Speaker 1: a bit much against the Georgia's southern team that won
35:48
Speaker 1: ten games last year. So um, I do think that
35:50
Speaker 1: that would be a place that I'd look and then yeah,
35:53
Speaker 1: look like I I'm I do like Georgia a lot,
35:56
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna be seeing their praises a ton this year.
35:59
Speaker 1: One they're giving twenty one at Vandy. I just throw
36:02
Speaker 1: out the stat on Twitter. Vivid Seats report that Georgia
36:06
Speaker 1: fans are expected to account for six of the crowd
36:10
Speaker 1: at Vanderbilt on Saturday. That's going to be such a
36:13
Speaker 1: such a pro Georgia crowd, and I think twenty one
36:16
Speaker 1: on the road, I think Georgia covers that relatively easily.
36:19
Speaker 1: And even though you know, I like Dandy skill players,
36:22
Speaker 1: they have a big three and Kalish Lipscomb, Keyshawn Vaughn
36:25
Speaker 1: and Jared Pinkney that I think we're going to be
36:26
Speaker 1: really good. But I just think that Georgia dominates that
36:29
Speaker 1: defensive line and I really think that they're able to
36:32
Speaker 1: put up a big score in that one. So those
36:34
Speaker 1: are probably the places that i'd start at, all right,
36:37
Speaker 1: So the big that's that's really good stuff. The biggest
36:40
Speaker 1: number UH this weekend amongst the top, it looks like
36:45
Speaker 1: it's Penn State as a thirty nine and a half
36:48
Speaker 1: point favorite hosting Idaho. Next up I think is UH Clemson.
36:54
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Action Network gap right now is
36:56
Speaker 1: a thirty seven point favorite over jorgegi Tech that has
37:00
Speaker 1: a brand new coach and just trying to figure out
37:02
Speaker 1: how to no longer be you know, in an option
37:06
Speaker 1: forward offense. If you had to bet one of those games,
37:09
Speaker 1: Penn State thirty nine and a half points over Idaho.
37:12
Speaker 1: Clemson thirty seven points over Georgia Tech. Which one do
37:16
Speaker 1: you take to bet? You have to bet, I'm sorry,
37:19
Speaker 1: you have to bet on the favorite. To bet on
37:21
Speaker 1: the favorite. I'm not betting on Penn State right now
37:23
Speaker 1: to cover. I'm not that's that's way too, way too
37:27
Speaker 1: high spread. I'd much rather take a team like Clemson,
37:30
Speaker 1: and that's you know, a little bit more so. Penn
37:33
Speaker 1: State is just such a mystery. Offensively, I feel like people,
37:36
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have Penn State in my top twenty five
37:38
Speaker 1: third season. I think they're complete mystery. Offensively, I think
37:42
Speaker 1: that what they returned at the quarterback position with Sean Clifford,
37:44
Speaker 1: they feel really good about that. But you return your
37:47
Speaker 1: most your you lose your most prolific pastor and program history.
37:51
Speaker 1: I think trace McSorley is was so valuable. I mean,
37:54
Speaker 1: he's been the quarterback for every meaningful game that they've
37:57
Speaker 1: played in the last five years. And I just think
37:59
Speaker 1: that of the loss that he'll have on that program
38:02
Speaker 1: will be significant. Um And I would not trust Penn
38:05
Speaker 1: State to cover thirty nine and a half point spread,
38:07
Speaker 1: even though it is Idaho, and even though they do
38:09
Speaker 1: have talent on the on the defense, of course, and
38:11
Speaker 1: I like some of their skill players. But yeah, that
38:13
Speaker 1: that just seems a bit lofty to me. Um, yeah,
38:15
Speaker 1: I would still take clumps of the cover. I think
38:17
Speaker 1: the Clemson should be able to impose their will really
38:20
Speaker 1: at the line of scrimmage all year. I don't know
38:23
Speaker 1: who in the world is going to test them. And
38:24
Speaker 1: even though that they have, you know, all those holes
38:27
Speaker 1: on the defensive line or you know, losing three guys
38:29
Speaker 1: like that who we didn't expect to you know, to
38:32
Speaker 1: be there even last year, I think that that that's
38:35
Speaker 1: that's something that will you know, come into play later
38:37
Speaker 1: in the season. But for now, Yeah, give me Clemson.
38:39
Speaker 1: Give me Trevor Lawrence to be able to cover pretty
38:41
Speaker 1: much any spread. I didn't Travisy TM is the best
38:43
Speaker 1: running back in the country. I love Justin Ross as well,
38:47
Speaker 1: the Alabama native who of course torched Alabama National championship
38:50
Speaker 1: last year. So yeah, I would have a lot of
38:52
Speaker 1: confidence in Clemson covering. They'll be able to to pour
38:55
Speaker 1: it on in a hurry. All right, So that's that's
38:57
Speaker 1: also great. My last question for you, if you have
39:00
Speaker 1: to make a choice right now other than Oklahoma, Clemson, Alabama,
39:09
Speaker 1: or Michigan to make the playoff. Where do you think
39:14
Speaker 1: the best value is in terms of odds? Yeah, I'll
39:19
Speaker 1: stick with Georgia. Like that's that. Didn't I say, didn't
39:23
Speaker 1: I say Georgia? Did I not include Georgia? Who did
39:27
Speaker 1: I say George I said, did I? I said Georgia Alabama? No,
39:30
Speaker 1: I said, Clemson take Michigan and out put Georgia in Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma.
39:37
Speaker 1: That I'd probably go in Michigan. Oh my god, I'd
39:42
Speaker 1: probably go in Michigan, just because you know, and I
39:44
Speaker 1: know I've said it with Georgia. I think that this
39:47
Speaker 1: is this is just if iin onally set up really
39:49
Speaker 1: well for for Michigan to do this. And I'm not
39:51
Speaker 1: just saying that as like a blind apologist. I don't
39:54
Speaker 1: say this every year about Michigan. I really don't. Last year,
39:57
Speaker 1: I thought Wisconsin was going to come out of the
39:59
Speaker 1: big town. I thought Wisconsin was going to go the playoff.
40:01
Speaker 1: But I just think it's finally set up for Michigan.
40:03
Speaker 1: I think it's finally clicked with hardball. I love the
40:06
Speaker 1: fact that he turned the entire offense over to Josh Gaddis.
40:09
Speaker 1: That's one of the more underrated storylines this offseason. Josh Gaddis,
40:12
Speaker 1: who of course spent last year as the co offensive
40:14
Speaker 1: coordinator slash wide receivers coach at Alabama, previously was a
40:18
Speaker 1: major part of rebuilding Penn State's offense along with Joe
40:21
Speaker 1: moorehead and I just think that with Josh Gaddis in
40:24
Speaker 1: controls as the play caller, they're gonna run a more
40:27
Speaker 1: modern offense, which they have needed to do for some
40:30
Speaker 1: time now. I think that they're finally going to get through.
40:32
Speaker 1: I think that, you know, predicting Ohio State is the
40:35
Speaker 1: easy thing to do, probably at this point. But at
40:37
Speaker 1: the same time, I have reservations about a first time
40:39
Speaker 1: head coach and a first time starter at quarterback, and
40:42
Speaker 1: I think that, you know, it's it's I think it's
40:44
Speaker 1: been like what I think, it's been twenty one years
40:45
Speaker 1: since that combination, a first time head coach and the
40:48
Speaker 1: first time starting quarterback and started in the top five.
40:51
Speaker 1: I think that Michigan finally gets it done this year.
40:53
Speaker 1: I think they've learned a lot from what they went
40:54
Speaker 1: through at the end of last season. It was a
40:56
Speaker 1: very humbling experience for them after that great long winning
40:59
Speaker 1: Street last year, and I think the message finally gets through.
41:02
Speaker 1: I think Don Brown adjust a little bit, maybe doesn't
41:04
Speaker 1: play as much man in those key games when you
41:07
Speaker 1: know they're facing these up temple offenses. And I think
41:09
Speaker 1: that Michigan finally gets it done and gets a Big
41:12
Speaker 1: Ten championship and obviously a victory against Ohio State and
41:15
Speaker 1: gets to the playoffs this year. All right, cgo, cgo
41:19
Speaker 1: Garret at C j oh Gara on Twitter. You have
41:23
Speaker 1: proven once again why people from Chicago Land and alumnus
41:28
Speaker 1: of Indiana Universities Journalism School can really do it all.
41:32
Speaker 1: Because look what you did. You moved, you moved down
41:35
Speaker 1: South and now you're a senior columnist for Saturday in
41:37
Speaker 1: South and you're co hosting the Saturday Down South podcast.
41:40
Speaker 1: Great stuff. I really appreciate the insight, I appreciate the information.
41:44
Speaker 1: I appreciate you giving me bold takes in your picks
41:49
Speaker 1: for Week one of college football. Absolutely appreciate. Looking forward
41:52
Speaker 1: to doing again soon hopefully. All right, brother, take care,
41:56
Speaker 1: all right, you too. All right, this has been the
41:58
Speaker 1: favorites from the Action Network. I want to thank my
42:00
Speaker 1: guests as always, Bob Scucci from Boyd Gaming Bookmaker to
42:04
Speaker 1: the world for coming on his podcast. He's on with
42:07
Speaker 1: me every week talking lines and market moves from the
42:10
Speaker 1: perspective of Las Vegas and Connor ro Gera from Saturday
42:14
Speaker 1: down South dot com hosted the Saturday Down South podcast.
42:18
Speaker 1: Follow him at c J O'Gara. He had great stuff.
42:21
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42:29
Speaker 1: subscribe until next week. I love you