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Forecaster shifts 4 governors' races toward Dems · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: You are looking at live images of President Trump speaking
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  Speaker 1: in South Carolina, hoping to rally support for Republican Senator
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Darlene Graham, who has fallen far behind in fundraising in
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  Speaker 1: what was once just a completely safe Republican seat and
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  Speaker 1: not a conversation. It comes as Trump is spending the
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  Speaker 1: final days of the campaign in red states. He is
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  Speaker 1: defending a growing number of what.
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  Speaker 2: Should be safe seats.
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  Speaker 1: New polls and projections out tonight show the races are
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  Speaker 1: not going in the right direction for his party. And
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  Speaker 1: of course, whatever Trump says about polls, his actions do
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  Speaker 1: speak the loudest, and he is going to red states.
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  Speaker 1: That's where he's spending his time to try to turn
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  Speaker 1: out the base. Out front now with fresh new data,
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  Speaker 1: Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Koch
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  Speaker 1: Political Report, and Larry Sabato, the editor-in-chief and director of
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  Speaker 1: the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, the
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  Speaker 1: man behind the eponymous.
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  Speaker 2: Sabato's crystal ball.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, I appreciate both of you. So, Larry, I just
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  Speaker 1: want to start with you because crystal ball, making a
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  Speaker 1: big prediction tonight, you're shifting four governor's races, four to
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  Speaker 1: the left. I want to start with the state that
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  Speaker 1: everybody is talking about, and we were just talking about,
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  Speaker 1: of course, Ohio, where you just moved the governor's race
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  Speaker 1: from toss-up to lean Dem. Now, that's a big deal.
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  Speaker 1: Ohio hasn't elected a Democratic governor in 20 years. And
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  Speaker 1: I just want to be clear here, right, that you
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  Speaker 1: reached this decision before Ramaswani's attack ad featuring Amy Acton's
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  Speaker 1: estranged mother. So you made this lean Democrat before that ad.
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  Speaker 1: Do you have a feel for what that ad does
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  Speaker 1: to the race now?
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  Speaker 2: You know, Aaron, I think it's the rancid icing on
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  Speaker 2: a very untasty cake. This was a race, as with
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  Speaker 2: so many others, that just about everybody thought would go
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  Speaker 2: Republican in the end because Ohio has been voting Republican
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  Speaker 2: since Trump came on the scene in 2016. But first
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  Speaker 2: of all, Ramaswamy is not that good a candidate. He
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  Speaker 2: rubs a lot of people the wrong way. He did
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  Speaker 2: in the presidential race when he ran against Donald Trump.
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  Speaker 2: The last time around. And the fact that he was
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  Speaker 2: the choice, I think, had something to do with the
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  Speaker 2: fact that he's very, very wealthy. But, you know, money
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  Speaker 2: can buy a lot of things in life, but it
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  Speaker 2: really can't buy office as frequently, as often as many
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  Speaker 2: people believe. So I think we thought Amy Acton was
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  Speaker 2: ahead before this. This is a disaster. This ad is
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  Speaker 2: a disaster. And it's hard to believe that there are
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  Speaker 2: Republicans out there defending it. You know, you had Republican
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  Speaker 2: former governor of Kansas, Bill Graves, on just a few
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  Speaker 2: minutes ago, and he was powerful in his explanation of
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  Speaker 2: why not only this isn't going to work, but it
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  Speaker 2: is already backfiring.
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  Speaker 1: You know, Dave, the Cook political report, just released brand
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  Speaker 1: new polling as well on the Senate and governor's races
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  Speaker 1: in Ohio. And, you know, just when Larry's talking about
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  Speaker 1: how it was a Republican state, I remember being there, gosh,
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  Speaker 1: I think it was 2012 on election night because it was,
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  Speaker 1: you know, you can't win the White House without Ohio, right?
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  Speaker 2: It was a swing state.
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  Speaker 1: And then that changed. This is a state that went
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  Speaker 1: for Trump by 11 points in 2024, eight points in 2020.
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  Speaker 1: That's not a swing state. But what are you finding now?
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  Speaker 3: Erin, our polling in both the Senate and governor's race
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  Speaker 3: shows up shows Democrats ahead by around five and six points. Now,
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  Speaker 3: the Democrats are not quite at 50, and it's notable
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  Speaker 3: that third-party candidates, libertarians, are taking significant shares of the vote.
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  Speaker 3: That's basically a parking place for dissatisfied Republicans who disapprove
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  Speaker 3: of Trump. They don't love Democrats, and they're not exactly energized.
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  Speaker 3: They're not making a beeline for the polls. Many of
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  Speaker 3: them could end up on the couch, which takes votes
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  Speaker 3: out of Trump's 2024 column and makes the math work
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  Speaker 3: statewide better. for both Democrats in Ohio. And this race
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  Speaker 3: for governor was already so negative and personal, sometimes that
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  Speaker 3: can blind a candidate's judgment. And in this case, Ramaswamy's
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  Speaker 3: ad has divided Republicans in a way that's unhelpful to
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  Speaker 3: turning out their vote on November 3rd. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: And Larry, let me ask you about two other Trump
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  Speaker 1: strongholds as we're talking about how Ohio was once one
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  Speaker 1: of them. Oklahoma, I guess, makes Ohio look like a
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  Speaker 1: relative swing state. Thirty five points was the Trump margin
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  Speaker 1: of victory in Oklahoma. Alabama, 30 points. Now your team
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  Speaker 1: is moving the governor's races in both of those states
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  Speaker 1: from safe Republican to likely Republican. Now, obviously, that's still
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  Speaker 1: likely Republican. But in a state where Trump won by
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  Speaker 1: 35 points or 30 points, to move from safe to
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  Speaker 1: likely is notable. Why is it happening?
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's happening because of all the national trends that
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  Speaker 2: we're seeing around. Moving this election to Democrats is why
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  Speaker 2: so many people are talking about a blue wave of
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  Speaker 2: varying heights. We'll see what it actually turns out to be.
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  Speaker 2: I've got to add, though, you know, for Ohio, I
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  Speaker 2: looked at Dave's polls and I've seen enough. That's got
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  Speaker 2: to be it, Dave. The fact that Amy Acton and,
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  Speaker 2: for that matter, Sherrod Brown are doing so well in
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  Speaker 2: your polls. I'm using a phrase, by the way, in
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  Speaker 2: case people don't know that Dave uses on X and
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  Speaker 2: Twitter and has for many, many years.
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  Speaker 1: And I'm proud of him. He's a UVA graduate.
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  Speaker 2: Former student, former employee of the Center for Politics. I'm
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  Speaker 2: surprised you didn't mention those things, Dave. Now, on the other,
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  Speaker 2: on the two governor's rates that you mentioned, Nobody thinks
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  Speaker 2: the Democrat is really going to win in Oklahoma. Nobody
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  Speaker 2: thinks the Democrat's really going to win in Alabama. Although
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  Speaker 2: the Democrat there, Doug Jones, won a U.S. Senate race
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  Speaker 2: a half a term, three years of a term. And
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  Speaker 2: so he's not without his credentials. It's just that it
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  Speaker 2: is so tough for a Democrat to win, even in
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  Speaker 2: a really good year for Democrats. And Tommy Tuberville, of course,
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  Speaker 2: is an incumbent U.S. Senator there. from Alabama. So we
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  Speaker 2: have to be realistic about this. But what it tells
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  Speaker 2: us is the trend. What is going on underneath? And underneath,
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  Speaker 2: Democrats are doing really well.
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  Speaker 1: So, you know, Dave, and I'm glad that Larry gave
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  Speaker 1: you that pump up there. I've seen enough. Dave Wasserman, right?
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  Speaker 1: So on election night, when Dave says that, you know. Dave,
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  Speaker 1: you looked at Texas and Iowa. So when Larry talks
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  Speaker 1: about what you look under the hood here and that, OK, fine,
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  Speaker 1: Alabama is not going to go for a Democrat, but
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  Speaker 1: it's the trend. Are you finding the same momentum in
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  Speaker 1: Texas and Iowa where things actually could go for Democrats,
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  Speaker 1: depending on how the night goes?
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  Speaker 3: Well, it's true. Everything I know about politics, I owe
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  Speaker 3: to Professor Saboteau. But the key here in Iowa and
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  Speaker 3: Ohio and Texas in our polls, It's one thing for
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  Speaker 3: the Republicans to be down in Paxton's case and in
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  Speaker 3: the Iowa governor's race and in Ohio in both races,
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  Speaker 3: but it's another thing for the Republicans' images to be underwater.
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  Speaker 3: That makes it a lot harder to turn around a
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  Speaker 3: race in the final stretch. And the fact that Paxton's
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  Speaker 3: underwater with voters in terms of his image by double
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  Speaker 3: digits and Zach Lane in Iowa, the only two Republicans
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  Speaker 3: in our poll who are running in contention or have
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  Speaker 3: the potential to be ahead, Greg Abbott in Texas for governor,
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  Speaker 3: and then Ashley Hinson for Senate in Iowa. And both
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  Speaker 3: of them are overperforming their counterparts on the ticket with
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  Speaker 3: college-educated voters. I think we're going to see some ticket
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  Speaker 3: splitting in the suburbs that allows them to narrowly prevail.
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  Speaker 3: But the fact that Republicans have hemorrhaged so much support
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  Speaker 3: among non-college whites, Hispanic voters, and independents is It's allowing
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  Speaker 3: Democrats to win back places they haven't won in over
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  Speaker 3: 10 years. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: And of course, ballot splitting, you know, fascinating when you
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  Speaker 1: actually see it happen. People talk about it. We don't
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  Speaker 1: often see it. The fact that you think that we're
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  Speaker 1: really going to be seeing that in some of those suburbs.