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NFL Week 3 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five, part of the Action Network. Today is our
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: week three Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chadmulman, Chief Content
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. We are coming off of
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: a three and two winning week in our contest. Thank
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: freaking god, we did that. We recorded our Sunday episode
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: before Sunday Night Football, and as we said on the show,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: a lot of lines we liked in the moment that
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: we talked about have already moved, which is why you
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: need to listen to the Sunday show if you want
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: to get the best of the number. Today we will
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: get to our Simon Says pick our exact Decision pick,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: both of which won last week. Thursday. We will do
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: sharp calls, big balls, foxhol and go deeper into the
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: plays we like. Also, this is the last week reminders
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: to sign up for The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand
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  Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest. It's a season long
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  Speaker 1: contest that automatically drops your two worst scores of the
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  Speaker 1: season after Thanksgiving week. First place this season gets forty
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  Speaker 1: thousand bucks plus. If you don't want to play season long,
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  Speaker 1: we have a weekly contest. The top five this week
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  Speaker 1: and every week get their share of three grand You
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  Speaker 1: know the drill. Go to favorites dot actionnetwork dot com
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: to sign up for free. Let's bring in my co host,
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my capadre professional better signon hunter eto.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: So way, men, shot, How are we doing? Brother?
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: We are so freaking good today. I cannot tell you
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I've never felt better than I have after the first
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: two weeks of this football season. What a difference it
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: makes to go three and two versus two and three.
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: And what a difference it doesn't make to me at
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: all because I just feel the exact same.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Just another week grinding, Chad. So that was brutal way
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: to end the week last night.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: Luckily I gave on the app just the Saints' first
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: half and the Saints under I just stayed away from
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: that Pittsburgh Browns game because you nailed it when you
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: were like, what are we doing? Why are we taking
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: the Browns here? Just a great life lesson, Chad. We
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: do not fade Pittsburgh at home on Monday night against
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: the Browns.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: History just keep repeating itself. You ain't knowed us no
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: more now you know what I mean.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Well, look, we're gonna get a chance to dig in
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: deeper on the Browns and the catastrophe that is happening
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: by the lake right now, plus every other game on
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: the slate. We'll start talking about our early leans, narrowing
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: down the games that we like. As a reminder, the
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast is presented by bet three sixty five. Bet
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. They believe that every
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: sport should be epic, every touchdown, every game, every point,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when
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  Speaker 1: you sign up today with Code Action and you'll get
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets when
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  Speaker 1: you bet just one dollar whatever the sport would for
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  Speaker 1: the moment. It's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five.
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  Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older. Must be present in Colorado, Iowa,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. If you or someone you
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  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, in Virginia
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  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and
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  Speaker 1: conditions apply. All right, last bit of housekeeping. Here's our
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Favorites contest update for the Week two winners. Okay, Week
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: two we had one hundred and forty nine entries finished
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: five and zero. Our week two fifteen hundred dollars. First
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: place winner was jay Lenna Sinder. That's Jai Lina Cinder,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: and we paid out another fifteen hundred to the rest
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: of our top five. Tiebreaker was the longest Pittsburgh reception,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: which was a seventy one yard George Pickens touchdown. Top
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: five all got within seventeen yards, but simon our winner
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: guest sixty nine.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Nice, it is nice.
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  Speaker 1: Right. Also, our producer Matt Mitchell wants to call up
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: participant q brown one for finishing dead fucking last and
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: the Week two contest congratulations for finishing h to five,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: including a loss by the hook on Atlanta minus one
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: and a half and missing the tiebreaker by fifty yards.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Please email podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim your
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: non cash prize. Thanks for playing. Week three in our
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: contest is live the Monday night football tiebreaker longest Beangals touchdown.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Good luck everybody, Gill sa Cisco, All right, let's get
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: to it. Let's talk about the Giants visiting San Francisco.
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  Speaker 1: The line is ten and a half. Sa Quon is out.
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  Speaker 1: The Giants old line is banged up. This team can
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  Speaker 1: barely score against bad teams. This line hasn't moved already.
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  Speaker 1: But I do have one Evan Abrams special stat that
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: might sway us. But tell me what you're thinking right now.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it sucks that Auto plays the Giants like this.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: This is one of these I have to tick the Giants,
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: but I'm so thankful we don't have to pick this
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: in our contest because it's one of those I know
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: I can't stay away and it might get me in
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  Speaker 3: trouble because Thursday Night things were always a little weirder
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: and it always favorites the home team. I mean, the
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: Vikings were left for dead and they had some crazy
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: comeback to get that cover last week as the dog.
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  Speaker 3: So that's the perfect summary for these Thursday games where
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: if you're a big favorite like this, you gotta blow
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: them out, like the forty nine Discover This number really
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: have to blow out this Giants team, and I just
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: don't know if the Giants are that bad. So this
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: number diget eleven to a couple of books. After the
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: Saquan news came down, a lot of pro money came in.
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  Speaker 3: It's at ten and a lot of books now, so
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  Speaker 3: ten and a half sounds fair like that's a fair
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  Speaker 3: number to grab.
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  Speaker 2: But you know, I just I'm just glad we don't
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  Speaker 2: think make it one of our.
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  Speaker 3: Five because this is like a true torture chamber of
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: a game where like I don't want to do it,
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  Speaker 3: but that's a big number for a Thursday game, and
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: the Giants say what you want. They might have found
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: a little something in that second half. Like Daniel Jones,
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: his confidence looked like it came roaring back in that
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: second half against Arizona, so that's really great for him.
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  Speaker 3: Now a short week still in the road with the
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  Speaker 3: team head up the coast up to San fran and
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  Speaker 3: you know the forty nine ers team. If you're taking
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  Speaker 3: their number here, this is you buying at the peak,
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  Speaker 3: like this is this is not you getting any type
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  Speaker 3: of value on this forty nine ers team. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: thankful Chad that we don't have to make this one
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  Speaker 3: of our contest pick because it's.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: Kind of hard not to love the Giants in this
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  Speaker 2: exact spot.
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  Speaker 1: Well, we would make it one of our contest picks
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  Speaker 1: if we could do Thursday games. It's sort of what
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: we live on is making these really disgusting plays that
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: percentages favor us. I would also say, if you can't
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: find your confidence against the Arizona Cardinals, then you don't
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: deserve the massive guarantee contract. And Brian Dayball doesn't deserve
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: the massive props that we've been giving him that the
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: entirety of the NFL media universe has been giving him
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  Speaker 1: from being a great coach. They needed that game for
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: their lungs. And I was sitting on that couch, that couch,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: my couch. Nineteen minutes left in the game, Giants down
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: twenty eight to seven, And I said to a buddy
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: I was sitting next to him, like, I got the
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  Speaker 1: Giants minus five. Can they outscore the Cardinals twenty eight
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  Speaker 1: to nothing? And they they almost did it. They almost
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  Speaker 1: did it. They almost got there. They got to twenty four,
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  Speaker 1: twenty four to nothing. Um, here's my stat for you. Okay,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: here's my Evan Abram stat that's going to make us
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  Speaker 1: feel better. Team playing their first home game in Week three,
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  Speaker 1: that's the Niners twenty one, thirty four and two against
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  Speaker 1: the spread over the past twenty years when those teams
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  Speaker 1: are listed as a favorite fourteen twenty six and two
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  Speaker 1: as a favorite of three or more twelve twenty one
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  Speaker 1: and two. So the numbers, the precedent is on our
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  Speaker 1: side to take the Giants minus ten.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense.
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  Speaker 3: The trends are back that up because I would just say,
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  Speaker 3: in my lifetime, anytime this spot pops up, it's like
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  Speaker 3: I kind of have to take the dog in a
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  Speaker 3: big number like this. So I'm not shocking to see
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  Speaker 3: the public loses on this trend because that's just it's
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  Speaker 3: a dumb bet. If you're betting the four nine ers
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  Speaker 3: here over time, it's going to be a loser taking
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  Speaker 3: a team like this in this exact spot. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: thank you Evan for that. I needed that to boost
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  Speaker 3: my Giants love.
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  Speaker 1: Simon feels better. Nice job, Nice job, Evan Abrams. All right, now,
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  Speaker 1: we got to get some games that we know we
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  Speaker 1: can think about.
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  Speaker 2: People are gonna hate this week, but.
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  Speaker 3: It's a little bit of overreaction, a little bit of
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  Speaker 3: these teams aren't as bad as people perceive. So I
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: already know ahead of time, like there's gonna be a
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: couple of games just like last week, where you know
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  Speaker 3: it might not work, just like that Bears number didn't.
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  Speaker 3: But there's a method to the madness. So I hope
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: people got strong stomachs because this week is really tough,
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: because we're really going to ask you go.
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  Speaker 2: Against the grain here for a lot of these games.
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  Speaker 1: The Chargers are plus one at Minnesota. I'm a little
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  Speaker 1: surprised this number hasn't moved yet. The pros like Minnesota.
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  Speaker 1: The money's on the vikings, the bets are on the Chargers. Reminder,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: if you go to the Action Network app or you're
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network website, you see the bets column
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: in the odds page and the public betting page that
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: the bets is where the public money is coming. The
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: money is where the professionals are. I'm going to say
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: right now, I like Minnesota here.
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  Speaker 2: I got no read on it. I just think there's
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: no value. I'll just take the over or something and
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: just stay away from this one.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Well, I think you should take the over. Like, if
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: you watch that Titans game and we're going to talk
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: about this, you would have thought the Chargers were going
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: to kill Ryan Tannel. He was sacked five times, like terrible,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: violent hits, but his stat line was twenty to tw
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: twenty four, nearly seven yards per attempt. All right, and
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Kirk has been awesome this year. Second most passing yards
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: in the league, third highest completion completion percentage, second highest
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: passer rating, and you know it gives it the most
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: yards per attempt. The Los Angeles Chargers a very badly
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: coached team on the road as a one point five,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: what a team we're skeptical about at home as a
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: one point dog. I can see why you want to pass.
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it just it feels like a game we're not
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: getting great value on the line like vikings plus three
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: no brainer play because it just feels like wherever's the
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: ball last is going to win this game. So yeah,
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: definitely a Russian roulette game where it's like there's no
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: model in the world that can predict this game, Like
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: no one knows with either of these teams what's going
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: to happen. We all know it's going to be a
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: shit show. So yeah, I'll I'll just take the overchat
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: and stay away first side.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, see I so all right fine, because
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I really I'm gonna take a little taste of the
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: with the vikings on this one. Evan says that when
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: two winless teams play, the underdog is seventy thirty seven
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: and four over the past twenty years. I don't really
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: think that's a relevant stat here, because this one's bouncing
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: around like it might as well be picked. Let's talk
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: about Buffalo on the road at Washington. The Bills make
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: me want heels and throw your hands up and throw
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: your hair back. Tom Now the Bills, I'm making it happen.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I loved this game all last week. I bet Buffalo
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: minus six on Sunday the look aheadline before any of
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: the games were played. I think we got lucky that
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Washington came back against Evers. The line stayed down, and
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: according to Nick Giffen, one of our predictive analysts co
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: creator of the Luck Rankings, this is one of the
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: top four games with value in favor of Buffalo as
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: a decent sized road favorite. It now it's and a half.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, another game. I'm wait on.
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: I know a really smart group that's heavy on the
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: Washington in this one. They came in and grabbed that.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: It got up to seven to one point. Now it's
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: in a six and a half. You might see some
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: six of some books, but definitely a pro's verse shows game.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: I mean even myself threw the bills right into a
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: teaser as soon as this number came out. It's just like, Oh,
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: all I need is the Bills that win this game.
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: Straight up, It's hard to think Washington's going three and
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: now had a really emotional win Week one, had an incredible,
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: big come from behind win in Week two?
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: How do they not have a letdown spot here?
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: Really interesting number, Like the fact that the pros are
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: coming in on this means there's a couple pros out
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: there that really do believe in this commander's team.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: So I can't get behind it.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: Like I'm trying to find a reason to get on
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: Washington here and I can't do it. I mean, I
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: don't need to look at the splits, but I already
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: know the public is going to be all over the bills.
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: It's just a nice number, a good number of throwing teasers,
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: everything about it.
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: So definitely one of these.
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: I don't hate it that you already took the bills
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: and that I already have the bills and a teaser,
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: but this is one of these numbers. I don't want
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: to get some it for Thursday show, so no real
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: opinion on it. I leaned towards Washington at this point
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: on Tuesday, but no play for me yet.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Well, look, I feel like if you think the Bills
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: are going to win, then you bet the Bills minus six,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: minus six and a half. Evan can tell us in
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: the chat, but I'm fairly certain during Josh Allen's career,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: he's won fifty four career games now, thirty eight of
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: those games he's won by seven or more points. So
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: like when the guy wins, he covers and he.
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: Usually blows out bad teams. Like that's what he's great at.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Like, that's exactly why we loved him. This past weekend
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: against the Raiders, we didn't give a fuck what the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: number was. The number was seven and a half, eight
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: and a half, nine and a half. We were playing
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: it at every single number.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but it's also a little bit of luck because
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: again I do care about the number. If it was
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: eleven eleven and a half, I probably would have came
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: in on the Raiders. So we had great value in
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: a great spot on that Bills team, which that's why
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: I ended up in our contest.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: Jeb Allen forty three of his fifty seven wins by
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: seven or more New Orleans at Green Bay. That number
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: right now is at the Packers' minds one and a half,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: so it's come down a little bit. It was at two.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: The Saints team is so interesting, like they have they've
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: they've won two games. They were clearly better than the
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Panthers last night. Jordan Love. Meanwhile, you see for real
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: passer rating one eighteen, six touchdowns, no interceptions, yars per
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: attempt seven and a half. Right, So I kind of
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: feel like he's for real. But the same stat I
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: just read about teams playing their first home game who
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: are favored fourteen twenty six and two against the spread.
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually think we might be able to get
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: a good deal here on the Saints, just because most
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: people watch that game that that was a gross game,
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: that Saints Carolina game, and Derek Carr historically is not
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: that great on the road, and we still kind of
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: pop up in that game. There's sometimes he looked lost
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: where he really shouldn't. Like Michael Thomas Olive, these weapons
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: he has at his disposal are so good. The Saints
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: defense is so talented I mean that was a brutal,
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: brutal back door, but one of the best back towards
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: you can get if you had Carolina, Like, that's the
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: dream scenario when you get the three and a half
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: and they get the touchdown of the two point after
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: they did nothing for fifty six minutes. That's why we
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: play the numbers JAD. So yeah, interesting to see how
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: this number is gonna go. I initially wanted to get
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: on Green Bay. I was like thinking to myself, if
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: the Saints are two and zero, this this is the
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: kind of game the year where they go and win
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: this game in Green Bay. I really have to really
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: like take more consideration about how good the Saints team
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: is right now, because I still think they're the kind
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: of team where, yeah, I picked him before the season
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: to be the one seed.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: I didn't really believe it.
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: Like I still have a lot of questions, but Derek
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: Carr and I still feel the same after that Carolina
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: game chat. So in a really tough spot for this
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: Saints team to go up to Green Bay and playing.
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: But if it keeps creeping up, like if this gets
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: to two and a half, we're gonna take that number.
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: Like if this was at a pick, i'd be on
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: green Bay. But if it gets to two and a half, three, I'll.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Back the Saints and I'll take that defense.
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: So I'm hoping the public money keeps coming in and
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: maybe some pros coming and take green Bay and we
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: get to two and a half, because that'd be a
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: really nice number to back with this. The Saints defense
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: is just legit, like they're really good in every facet.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: So as much prais I want to give Jordan Love,
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: we also talked about it where it's like a lot
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: of it's with the coach giving him the easy reads
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: and the easy pass and there's some other stuff for
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: Jordan Love looks like a first year starter, Like this
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: guy is gonna have a lot of ugly plays coming up,
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: and that's just how it is in the NFL. Like
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: you learn from your mistakes. He's got a lot of
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: mistakes coming and this is one of these games. Yeah,
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: you get get fat fat off playing the Bears defense,
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: get fat off playing Atlanta indoors. Now you're playing the
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: Saints defense, which I think most people are gonna have
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: them rated as a top eight, top seven defense. So
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: I'm going to learn a lot about Jordan Love in
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: this game for sure, So.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Let me give you the capitol j other side of
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: the story, Jordan Love fifty five percent completion rate, Jordan
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Love playing against a defensive backfield that looks like a
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: bunch of high schoolers in the Chicago Bears playing indoors.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Like you said, uh, week one and two favorites, short favorites,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: field goal or less. Okay, Cordon to Evan Abrams in September.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: The past twenty years one, two, five and two against
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: the spread, they especially don't perform well in the first
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: three weeks ninety two, one, twelve and two for the
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: last twenty years thirty nine and sixty five since twenty fifteen.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: So that's the Packers, that's the Chargers. Two teams we've
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: already talked about more and more. I feel like the
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Saints are one of those teams we're going to want
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: to play because they will be undervalued at least this week,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: and the money and the bets coming in right now
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: in the Packers, so I would expect this number to move.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: That'd be great. Yeah, I would love to be able
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: to get two and a half on this in the contest.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: But when we play it right, now at plus two,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: forget about the contest.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: Betting wise, you could, but I would honestly wait because
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: I just I just see it.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: I could see it keep going up. But that is
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: a risk.
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: Like I just said, the pros could come in on
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: and it could go back down on one one and
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: a half. But I just hate I hate pushes, so like, yeah,
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: I'll put a little on the two here, but I
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: want the two and a half for the three.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: What if it goes to one and a half sucks?
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: But again that's that's just when you make it a
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: teaser play. You want tease it up to seven and
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: a half and you know you're sitting on a great number.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Simon the Favorites Podcast as a new sponsor, you know them,
• 18:56
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  Speaker 1: or pick the toppings you crave. Simon, give me the
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  Speaker 2: I'm a meet Lover's Chad. I go with the pepper
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• 20:00
  Speaker 1: We have not identified, Simon says, we have not identified
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: an executive decision. But we're getting much much closer, all right.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: The next game, Atlanta's visiting Detroit. Detroit is a three
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. This is a game that
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: came up on Sunday night. It was five and a half.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: I loved it, and you've said it was phishy. Now
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: it's down to three and a half. The money and
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: the bets coming in on Atlanta. Can you explain why
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: you thought it was phishy? Do you still think so?
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Should we have better at five and a half on
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night?
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you nailed it, you were You were a spot
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: on looking at it.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: I look at from another perspective, Well, this is a
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: bad number, and that's how you.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: Make books pay. Rights.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: You bet it and the books hang a bad numory
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: you pound it, and that's that's how they pay. So
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: that was a good read by you. And that was
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: just me being skeptical of like, why is this number
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: not three? Two days later now it's down to three.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: So that's exactly what I said to the show, is
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: like I got this at three three and a half,
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: why is that five and a half?
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Like it just felt very bizarre.
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: It was so inflated, way too much respect to that
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: Lions team. So yeah, pissed I missed the best of
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: the number of the pros have just been pounding this
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: down to three and now a lot of books. I mean,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: the value is going to be there in the Lions, Chad,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: this keeps happening, we get two and a half in
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: the Lions. I'm happy to take the Lions there, So
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: it's right where it needs to be right now, like
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: three to me and no value either side. I lean
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: now towards the Lions. But if it goes back to
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: up to three and a half, four, I could see
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: us in Atlanta. If it goes back down below three,
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: I could see some of the Lions. It's just this
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: is a really good number where these teams are not
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: that big. There's not that much big of a difference
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: until you get to the quarterback position, where there's a
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: huge difference with Detroit's quarterback compared to Atlantis quarterback. So yeah,
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: Ritter might be that guy who's incredible at home and
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: we just fade him on the road. So give me
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: the two and a half in the Lions.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: I beg you. Let me tell you something.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: I love this team.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: I got goosebumps.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: Gentlemen, you're gonna be ready to go man, piss and vinegar.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I love this team. The lines were set up to
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: fail in that game against Seattle, right, they were so
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: overhyped that first game at home, the euphoria around the Lions.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: You know, that stadium being sold out with a waiting
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: list for the first time in generations. So now I'm
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: just gonna have to wait until the lines are less
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: than a field goal.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Wayne, we see value on the line again, Dude.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: We got to talk about this Cleveland Browns team, all right.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: I think this is I think this is one of
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: the toughest games out there. So this was another one
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: we discussed at Sunday night. We were in agreement. You
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: take a small position on Tennessee at four and a half,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: and then you sort of made a bigger decision depending
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: on what happened with Cleveland.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and then.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Sort of everything that happened with Cleveland actually makes this
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: murcurer right, Like, this game potentially deflates their entire season.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: They're two hundred and thirty million dollars guaranteed. Quarterback gave
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the game away in multiple ways. Their best offensive weapon
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: is done for the year. We think they lose his
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: favorites on the road in a game they easily could
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: have won to got two to zero for the first
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: time since nineteen ninety three. We lose on a bad beat.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: They lose on a bad play. Here's a great stat
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: that Anthony Debundo, who's one of our analysts covering just
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: about every single sport there is gave me during our
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: Green Dot Daily production meeting this morning. In two games,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: opponents have yet to run a play in the Browns
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: red zone. It's fucking wild. What do we do with
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: this game? It's Mike Vrabel, the only coach in the
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: NFL the past twenty years with a winning record as
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: an underdog.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is really tough one.
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Obviously, Like you said, we already have a position on Tennessee,
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: but I'm gonna throw that away as if I have
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: nothing on it and the value is gonna shift to
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: the Browns. Like it's just like the Lions. If this
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: number gets two and a half, I'm gonna have to
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: do it. I'm probably gonna have to take the brown
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: But man, it's totally what you just said, where it's
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: like Tennessee three and a half. I would love that
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: number because it just feels like two teams with really
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: really strong front fource. So like, defensively, I really like
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: Tennessee to shut down what the Browns are going to
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: do on the ground. They're going to be probably the
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: most public dog of the week. If I had to guess,
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: it's just going to be a team that the pros like.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: The public like together.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: The books are going to need the Browns badly. So
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: if it gets two and a half, that's where the
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: value is going to be. So this number, you know,
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know how much Nick Chubb is worth to
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: it the line, but it was probably half a point.
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: So that's why I'm hoping it does go down to
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: two and a half. So another game, not much ado
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: with probably going to have to end up on the Browns,
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: but another game I just kind of hate. If I'm
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: talking about a mentally weak team, it's going to be
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: the Browns compared to Tennessee. Like Tennessee, I think that
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: was their first win nine weeks going back to last
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: season last week, and that was a perfect Vabel game, right.
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: They just never gave up in that Chargers game. They
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: kept fighting, they held, they held to Herbert in that offense.
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: If you're taking Tennessee, you're you're banking on Tanniel having
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: back to back good games, and that's that's a lot
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: to ask. So yeah, another game where I'll just wait
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: for the line to move. If you want Tennessee, you
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: you should grab the three now because I do think
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: this is going to drop to two and a half.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Here's something else to make us even more confused. You
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: and I both love the luck rankings. This is one
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: of the top four luck ranking differential games in favor
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: of the Browns, meaning to play the Browns if it
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: gets two and a half put on my line alerts
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: for the Action Network app hope that I can be awake.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: You know, you and I last week did our YouTube
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: only Favorites film session in which we picked out plays
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: that sort of impacted our bets from the previous week
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: but also gave us something to think about going into
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: the next week. And mine is going to be about
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: the Titans protecting Tannehill and how that's messing with my
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: head for this game, because I do think that's a
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: big deal, right, Like that Browns defense. They're still healthy
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: and they're fucking awesome. Yeah, Houston at Jacksonville Jacksonville is
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: now an eight and a half point favorite. We're one
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: hundred percent going to have to take the Texans in
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the contest.
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: I won't make it a guarantee, but yeah, it's it's
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: looking that way just because who the hell are the
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: Jaguars and this offense to be you know, rated as
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: the same as the Ravens were in Week one, right
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: that that line in Week one I think was nine
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: and a half.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: Ten.
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: This line opened at nine and a half. I believe
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: down to eight and a half, Like, I'll grab it now.
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: This isn't the ass Simon says, play, but I'll grab
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: you sent at the eight and a half. CJ has
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: looked the best of all the rookies. Went back and
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: watched the film from that Colts game. The Colts did
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: throw a shell defense at them once they had a
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: big lead. But he's still making the throws, which I mean,
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: we talk all the time. These Ohio State quarterbacks usually
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: don't work in the league.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: It's just again, I don't want to shoot on justin fields.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: But there's always these guys who come out really hyped
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: up from Iowa State and it's like, okay, take away.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: All their number.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: You know, they're five star, number one receivers, all these
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: incredible receivers Ohio State has. Now these guys are coming
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: to the league and they're kind of with Scrubs. It's
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: not as easy. They usually don't work out. CJ's making,
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: you know, scrubs and the Stars. I mean, there's a
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: couple of guys on that team that like you know,
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: even Robert Woods, a guy who was left for dead's
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: making catches for the Houston team. So you know, Tank
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: Dell got it in the action Collins like they have
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: some nice pieces down there in Houston. So in in
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: a game where if the Jaguars would have won last week,
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: that's what bums me aut you as like we easily
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: would have got ten and a half on this number,
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: which but an amazing to take you sin At. I'm
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: still happy to take out the number it is. It's
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: just one of those where I feel like the number
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: would have been way higher if the if the Jaguars
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: were covered last week, So we could be going against
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: the Jaguars team where you could be getting a low
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: value on. But don't think it's low enough yet, Like
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: this to me should be a seven. Get eight and
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: a half, which is a key number. So I'm right
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: there with you, Chet, like I like this number.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: It's interesting to me that you say that about CJ. Shroud.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I've seen limited numbers of their plays. I haven't watched
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: a full game film for them, but every time I've
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: seen him, he's looked confused and he's dropping back and
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: running back further, like Robert Woods seems to be the
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: only player he's comfortable making any tight throws to.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: No, he loves Collins, that's his guy.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: What are you seeing right now that makes you feel
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: he's better than anybody else who's playing quarterback as a rookie.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: What if I told you he in his second start
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: of his career, he threw from more yards than any
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: quarterback that's ever come out.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: Ohio State to the NFL. Is that something you might
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: be interested in?
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: No, because we've already said the quarterbacks from Ohio State
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: A haven't been that good and B gross yardage in
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: a game is not an indication of you being very good.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: No one else ever could do it though, Like to me,
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: that's a big deal where it's like this kid could
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: easily have just gotten down, not gone through the motions
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: and not really kept trying. And like I love, they're
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: working through stuff in Houston, it's gonna be a shit show. Dude,
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: my guy Evan. Thank god Evan's here fourth in passing
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: yards with no interceptions. Chad, go fuck yourself, bad mouth
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: and CJ. That's why we need Evan here. But No,
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: I'm with you, Like he could easily come here and
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: just lay a total legg Like I have no idea
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: what this kid's gonna be.
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: It's just the rookie year.
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: I'm looking for little stuff and it is no small feat.
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: Even if you're playing against the shell defense a throw
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: forward three hundred yards NFL, it's really.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: Hard to do.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: So anything you're saying bad about him completely warranted. Like
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: that Ravens gave me.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Look lost. I kind of threw it away.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: I'm just trying to play the number here because I'm
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: totally with you, Chad, Like, if he's down fourteen in
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: the first quarter against this Jaguars team, this BET's probably dead.
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: Like You're exactly right, like I got zero faith and CJ.
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: But if they can just cleep it close, and we've
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: seen the Jaguars have struggled in the red zone this year,
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: that's that's that's a nice bet.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: This is what professionals make their money. Here's a question
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: for me, how can Houston stop Travis atn when they
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: couldn't stop Zach Moss.
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: Now it is tough where it's like you brought in
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: a defensive head coach and the defense hasn't looked great.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: The Houston might be one of the worst teams against
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: the run.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: New England is a now three point favorite at the
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: New York Jets. This is the number one game in
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: our luck rankings. The difference the gap is twenty five.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: So for the record, like, that's that's towards New England, right.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, towards New England like unlucky teams meeting a threshold
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: like New England in our luck rankings hit at a
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent clip since two thousand and eighteen. In
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Week three alone, that goes up to sixty nine percent.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: So the numbers moved. I mean the number was a two,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: we got two and a half. Now it's at three.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: I mean the big thing is Spelichick a sack Wilson, right,
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: Like is in this every year we try to convince
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: ourselves to take the Jets against Belichick here And I
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: don't know if Evan has the number, but I don't
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: think Bell has ever lost to Zach.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: Like.
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: It's just one of those games where even last year,
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: I'm almost positive positive we had the Jets and they
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: dominated the whole game, and they punted and the Patriots
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: returned the punt for a touchdown and we lost the
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: bet on the Jets, like something stupid like that happened
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: last year. Yeah, Wilson owned four straight up and against
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: the spread first New England. So fuck man, we tried
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: to go in the trend last week. We're like, we
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: got to take the Patriots against Tua, who was not
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: going to go five and zer against his Belichick defense.
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: And you know, Belichick might have made the script right.
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: That umbrella defense he ran against Tuoa did slow down
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: that Miami offense. This week, we'll go back to the will.
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: I'll trust Belichick. I'll trust him out to go one three.
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: I'll take the number at three, hopefully two and a
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: half in our contest. And yeah, this is one of
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: those favorites where I usually always loved the home doll,
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: but not when it's a defensive mind like Belichick. First,
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: this quarterback in Zach Wilson. So definitely a huge advantage
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: for this Patriots team. And we want to see the
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: injury report for this Patriots team. If their defense is healthy,
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: you know, if their cornerbacks are going to play this game,
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: everyone's good to go. Yeah, I love as our one
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: solo favorite. This is definitely up the top of the
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: list of taking New England.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Here a circle that's on the board. It's got the
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: luck ranking stamp of approval. Simon, you know what has
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: my stamp of approval. It's the fastest growing ticketing app
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  Speaker 1: I love game Time for two reasons. One they sponsored
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  Speaker 1: lowest price guaranteed this next game. I think we're going
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: to have to have a race between executive decision, and
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Simon says, I think Denver at Miami Miami six and
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite the Dolphins right now at bet
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: three sixty five fourteen to one to win the Super
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: Bowl TUA shortest MVP odds. Not surprisingly eighty percent of
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: the tickets coming into Miami. But my amp, but the
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: money is fifty to fifty split. This is number two
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: in our luck rankings. I will defer to you. I
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: will give you that if you want to make this,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: your son says, feel free. If not, I'm executiving decisioning this.
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: The great minds Chad, just because you can still get
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: seven's out there another week. It's going to be the
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: pros versus the Joe's on this. This going against this
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: Miami team that is incredibly talented, but the lines incredibly inflated.
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: And you know, Denver people won't believe it hearing this,
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: but Russ and a lot of metrics, is considered a
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: top five, top six quarterback right now. Like he's been
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: actually playing really well. That Denver offense.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Has been really good. It's just the defense.
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: So yeah, the hope here the number you're taking is
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: Russ will be able to keep up with this Miami
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: team offensively and the defense will be able to step up.
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: So we've got to take the really desperate team against
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: the team that is beloved by everyone in the public
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: and just not even matchup like matchup wise, this is
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: actually a good matchup for this Denver team. Like a
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: lot of stuff they can do well. They can stop
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: mining wants to do offensively. But just just looking at football,
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: the zero and two team going against the two and
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: oh team that I think you just said it two
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: as the favor right now for MVP, how do we
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: not like we're getting two to three free points on
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: Denver here, just off public perceptions.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: So you can take it because I have one more game.
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: I love you would do that for me.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, because as long as people take it like I
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: love that number, I think that's what our show is
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: built on.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: I'm taking it as the exact decision, the choice between
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: the unthinkable and the impossible.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: Text your number executive decision?
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: Are they number one in the luck ranking? Is that
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: what you said?
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: The number one game is New England and number two
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: is Denver against Miami.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: That makes sense they'd be number one for unlucky and
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: same with Denver. Denver is oh and two easily could
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: be two and oh yeah makes sense.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: First thing to figure out with Denver is are they
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: masters of their own bad luck? Yeah, they've looked amazing
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: in the first half. Russell Wilson has been great when
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: Sean Payton has been able to get him to play
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: the game plan that they've worked on for the entire week.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: And then the second half when adjustments come, Russell Wilson's
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: been terrible and they've let teams back into it to win. Also,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, who started making mistakes right like they were
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: up twenty one to three. Russell Wilson fumbles the ball,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: doesn't try to jump on it, gives Washington the opportunity
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: to come back, and they never recover.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: And did you see that fumbling?
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he looks so like that's the first time Russ
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: really looked old.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: He looked he looked old. Yeah, he looked old.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Yes, I wonder if that's going to be my film
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: session play the week now that I'm playing, I know
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be playing the Broncos. Oh, this is
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: so interesting. So I love the film session. I love it.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: Sean Payton most profitable underdog after Mike Tomlin the past
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: twenty years, most profitable underdog coach the last twenty years.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry, people, we have to do it.
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: Like, if this is seven and a half in our contest,
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: this is going to be a no brainer play for us.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: What if it's six and a half.
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: I'd still take in contests, Like I still think that's
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: too high, So don't don't mind number either.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: I totally agree Indy at Baltimore. Baltimore is an eight
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. I haven't heard anything about
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson yet, have you. I haven't noticed anything.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: No, but I do know a really smart group that
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: took a large position on the Colts. So I could
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: tell you that a bunch of pros don't care. They
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: don't care if it's Mentru, if it's Richardson. They like
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: the Colts of this number. I haven't done anything in
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: this game because I'm with Chad. I just I need
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: to know Richardson's going to play, if he's not playing,
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: if the number will move off of that. So if
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: people want to know what the pros early bet is
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: that they like the Colts in this spot, But to me,
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: I just don't have an opinion on it.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Yet another one. I don't have a great readown it.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe you do. Carolina at Seattle, Like now we've seen
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: Carolina after last night we saw Seattle get a little
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: bit healthier against Detroit. The lines four and a half.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: I don't have a strong opinion on this one.
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I just took the under, Like when this number
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: hung last night, even before the Carolina game, I took
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: the under on it. As great as the Seahawks played
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: against the Lions, the Lions left a ton of opportunity
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: on the field there, and I think Carolina will actually
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: be able to tack those weaknesses that the Seahawks have,
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: which is that offensive line, Like there's just you're replacing
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: your left and right tackle. There's going to be some regression.
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: So incredible win for the Seahawks, really bad loss for
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: this Carolina team. Give me that six and a half seven.
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: I would love to take a six and a half
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: seven on this this Panther team. So yeah, one of
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: those numbers that was way too low at three and
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: a half four on Carolina. Now it's where it should be,
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: Like it should be six and a half seven.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: But it's not six and a half seven. Oh yeah, six,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing five and a half, Okay, I just.
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: Assume it's getting up there where like the public's going
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: to come in really heavy on the Seahawks team here.
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: So yeah, like like Carolina, this spot, like the number,
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: it's just it'll be hard for me to get there.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Is just one of our dog bets, just because we
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: still have so many questions right now about this offensive Carolina,
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: Like I really don't know what they are. I'm trying
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: not to be too mean to them because they're in
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: a rough spot where you know, Bryce Shong's first game
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: was a divisional game against Atlanta on the road. Then
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: he came home and played a really good Saints defense
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: on Monday night, and now he's going to Seattle. Like
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: that's such a brutal start for a rookie quarterback. Like
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: he's just going into really hostile environments. So yeah, if
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: I have a choice between this rookie on the road,
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: Anthony Richardson on the rookie on the road, where CJ
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: is a rookie on the road, I think me and
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: you are both more comfortable taking the numbers above seven
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: and a half, above eight than we are taking a
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: Carolina team here at six and six five and a half.
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: It's just the number is not doing it for me yet.
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: So like Carolina, I just don't like the number yet.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: You know what, we're going to be comfortable doing, really
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: comfortable doing, because it's what we do. Taking the Arizona
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Cardinals as twelve and a half point underdogs at home
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: against the Dallas Cowboys, who are getting eighty two percent
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: of the bets. This is a must play throughout the
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: names and the helmets. You see these numbers and you
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: take the home dog yea.
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: And stinks though because even last week, haven't gave us
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: that stat about Dak versus these bad teams as big
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: favorites like this is actually when the Cowboys do good?
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: But yeah, Chad, how do we not take this number
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: here like this?
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: This is what we do. We take the Cardinals.
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: Kicking myself last week for not being more in line
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: with a lot of the pros on taking them against
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: the Giants.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: Simon. By the way, Cardinals last week against the Giants,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: they were a big, big and one of the reasons
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: we love our sponsor bet three six five is their
• 40:32
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• 40:36
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• 40:40
  Speaker 1: seventeen or more so. People who bet Arizona money line
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: last week got paid even though they blew the game.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: Do you think Arizona could be on the receiving end
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: of a seventeen point deficit this week? It's possible.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: When will this get to thirteen fourteen? That's the real question,
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: right Like.
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: The Bears feels like it's hitching up towards that number. Yeah,
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: I hope we can get here with the Cardinals twelve
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: and a half. Even Chad knows like that's that's not
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: really enough. That's a nothing number like twelve and a
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: half to ten and a half. It's just our number
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: rarely falls in eleven or twelve, like mathematically, it just
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: doesn't happen. So interesting that they've hung this number this way,
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: just because it's a little telling where it's a teaser number.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: It means if you're teasing this number, you can get
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: this below six and a half right now, which we
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: talk all the time.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: That's a big deal. So be careful out there.
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: These sports books keeping this at twelve and a half
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: a little telling because they know this is going to
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: be the most public bet. Like the money line of Dallas.
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: I think it was the number two most bet bet
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: a big sports book. So Dallas looks the part though,
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: Like as much as I want to tear down Dallas,
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: their defense is beat up on crappy teams and the
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: Giants and the Jets, and they handle their business like
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: that's what you want to look for, Like your defense
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: should beat up those teams. That's what you expect. That
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: is Dallas defense. So yeah, the big thing that excites
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: me about back in Arizona chat is it's just and
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: be us in the pros. It's just another one of
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: those weeks, So another number we'll fight on if we
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: can get into the contest or not. But yeah, as
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: the week goes along here, if this gets up to
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: thirteen and a half fourteen, it's gonna be already to
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: keep it out. That's just a huge number for a
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: road favorite on this Cowboys.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: Team, Bears, Chiefs. This is a pros Joe's game right now.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: Numbers are twelve and a half, sixty percent of the
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: bets on the Chiefs, sixty eight percent of the money
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: on the Bears. I can see it. I mean, the
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Chiefs have struggled, the Bears have been terrible, but that's
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: why you're getting such a big number right now. So
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: either you believe this is a get healthy game for
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, or you believe in the stats that the
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: Bears are going to cover a big number and Patrick Mahomes,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: who has a hard time covering numbers like this, will
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: play it for him.
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, another scary, big favorite where you know, if you
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: want to throw the Chiefs in a teaser, I totally
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: get it. I don't see the scenario of this Bears
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: team wins this game, let alone gets us under a touchdown.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: They're just they're lost right now. And you know, the.
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: Players got interviewed said that there wasn't any words spoken
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: on that flight home chat from Tampa back to Chicago.
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: So everything is just bad right now in Chicago. And
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: now they're heading to Kansas City on a team that
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: I think we both agree like their offense. You know,
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: Eric Blimey, they're there, they're Cee left last year with
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: the Washington Now Washington's too and on their offense is
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: clicking where you look at the Chiefs and there's something's
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: missing around their offense. And if there's going to be
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: at a get right game for them, Chad, it's the
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: Chicago's Bears defense, Like this is as good as it gets.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: To get your offense right.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: So if they struggle against his Bears defense, some major
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: major questions now about this Chiefs offense. So yeah, another one,
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: another ugly dog. But it's are we going to take
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: this over the Cardinals? Like, it's gonna be tough to
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: pick this whever other dog.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: So I do like the Bears. I don't know if
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: I love it so far.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: Oh no, I was gonna say this is one of
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: the most beat games, but there's a lot of the
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: games that are more bad. So on Sunday night, we
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: talked about the Raiders at plus one and a half.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: The number is not moved to Raiders minus one and
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: a half. The Raiders do fall into that stat now
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: teams is a short favorite playing their first home game
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: in Week three that you'd want to fade. How do
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: you feel about the Raiders right now as favorites at
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: one and a half against the Steelers. Yeah.
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: We joke all the time about the Spider Man meme,
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: and this is the Spider Man meme. Usually the exact
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: same team against each other. There's literally nothing different other
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: than Jimmy has the experience and I can kind of
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: count on Jimmy and make the throws that I need
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: them too. So yeah, great scenario last week. This is
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: why I wanted to take the Raiders like they got
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: blown out. The public was going to like Pittsburgh, especially
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: if Pittsburgh won, but the pros came and hammered this number.
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: So even though Pittsburgh won, no one's buying it. Like
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: the numbers moved from plus one and a half on
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: the Raiders down to minus one and a half. I
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: still like the Raiders, so I don't hate taking them
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: as a favorite here. I don't hate taking that number.
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: You know the Pittsburgh what an amazing win. But can
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: you rely on your defense to get fourteen points every
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: week for you to cover and win these games? I
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: don't think so, Especially against this Raider team that they
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: played so bad against the Bills. You know that they're
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: going to get.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: Right this week.
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: So yeah, looking at this, if it all comes out
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: that Jimmy is fully healthy, because I don't know if
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: he's injured because he just played so bad in that game,
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: love him to get right.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: And Josh Jacobs, who had one of.
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: The worst games I've ever seen by running back last
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: week against the Bills. Great bounce back spot against Pittsburgh,
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: who just cannot stop the run. Pittsburgh's run defense is atrocious.
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: So yeah, love Vegas. Love it at this number.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Wow? All right? The Eagles minus five and a half
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: against the Bucks. Okay, I don't know if this is
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: the game you're talking about. This one opened at seven,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: it's now five and a half. They have one shared
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: opponent in the Vikings, and they both won. Philly dominated
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: physically against Minnesota twenty more plays for force, fumbles, four sacks,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty yards rushing. Kirk looked amazing against
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: this defense, look amazing against the Bucks defense. The Bucks
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: were outplayed. They got very lucky. Of one hundred and
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: forty four head coaches Todd Balls's in the past twenty years,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Todd balls is one hundred and forty two of one
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty seven against the spread.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: What does that mean He's horrible? Yeah, yeah, it sucks.
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: So this is my simon, says Bett. I wanted it
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: at six the Bucks. It's that five and a half,
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: damn it. So yeah, I still like it five and
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: a half. I was hoping to get the six. This
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: Bucks team if the Eagles were fully healthy, I'd make
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: this number seven. The Eagles are banged up in the secondary.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: We might be without our number one, our number two corner,
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: and our number three corner going up against Godwin and
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: Mike Evans, like this is a huge deal to this
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: Bucks team in that offense. So yeah, Eagles, Eagles might
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: win this game. They're always gonna have the opening for
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: a back door, and seeing how this Bucks team plays
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: and how Baker's played, this is a good spot to
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: back them. So the goddamn pros have coming. They bet
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: it down now. I got it at six six and
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: a half. It sucks now it's five and a half.
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: You could wait, but I'd grab it just in case
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: I could see I could see it keep dropping. The
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: Eagles have a lot of injuries right now. We do science.
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: I think the Eagles will win this game. It's just covering.
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: That's that's a big ask them going down there. I
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: guess his Tampa team that the Pros nailed, and it's
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: it's worked out to what are they all predicted of?
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: Like you know they're gonna if they're gonna play bad teams,
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: they're gonna be able to be in these games and
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: be competitive and when they play good teams, I don't
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: think they're gonna be as bad as people perceived. Eagles
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: last year are a totally different team. They were fully healthy,
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: They had a ton of really good veterans. This Eagles
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: team has a lot of young starters and they have
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: a lot of injuries to this team that couldn't really
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: afford injuries. So yeah, I'm pissed, it's I'm pissed it's
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: blow six, but it's still making my assignment, says I.
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: Just I love the Bucks in the spot against an
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: overvalued Eagles team that everyone's gonna betting this one. It
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: feels like just just what happened on Sunday Nay with
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: that Miami team where the public got the right they
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: hit that one, but you know they're not always gonna
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: get it right, just like we learned last night with
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: the Browns, Like they're stupid things that happen in these games.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: And it feels like that's what is this Bucks number.
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: It's like the public is still thinking of this Eagles
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: team as this team they were last year, and even
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: you were chat you were texting me about it, like
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: this Eagles offense something doesn't look right about this offense.
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: This ain't the team you can run for two hundred
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: yards on. The Bucks are not the team you can
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: just run for two hundred yards against.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: They have a really good run defense. So love this
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: number for this Bucks team.
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: All right? All right? I was actually thinking you would say,
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: because the line is steaming towards the Eagles, because the
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: wise guys have been coming in on the Bucks, do
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: we just keep waiting until this gets low enough when
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: we take the Eagles.
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: I don't think I'll get down to three. That's where
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: my break appoint would be. I had this game at four,
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: so I have the number that should be at four.
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: So it would take a lot for me to want
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: to take the Eagles here just because I do.
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: I do hate this spot for this Eagles team.
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: It's just everything about this game stinks of a trap
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: game for the Eagles.
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: Listen Sunday night. I'm begging you, if you listen to
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: this podcast on Tuesday and Thursday and you're not listening Sunday,
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: then you're only getting sixty six percent of the value.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: And we are about value. On the Favorites podcast Sunday Night,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: we said take the Rams plus six and a half
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: against the Bengals. This line is now two and a half.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Questions about Joe Burrow's health, both short term and potentially
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: long term. The Rams have looked good. They're no name offense,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: They've got a rookie receiver whose odds are now like
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: six to one to win offensive Rookie of the Year.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Are we staying away from this until we get more intel?
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Like at this number, you know, there's not real value
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: for us.
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you missed it.
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: I mean we gave out six and a half and
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: then I reposted the video and I think it was
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: still three and a half. You could have got that
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: number on the Rams too, and now it's down to two,
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: which is kind of a hedge by the books because
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: I don't think they know either, because if he was
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: officially out, we probably would have heard from media and
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: this number would just be ad a pay like this
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: to me would be either Pick or Rams minus one,
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: and then the value is probably gonna shift to the Bengals.
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: Especially if you got that early number six and a
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: half on the Rams. It's like, how do you not
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: take the other side and try to hit the middle. So, yeah,
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: the Rams. It's a great feeling where like I'll get
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: a lot of stupid shit wrong in the preseason. But
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: the Rams, I just for months kept saying myself, like,
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: this team isn't going to be bad as perceived by
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: the public. They were in that four nine ers game.
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: I mean that it was right there for them to
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: steal that game. Stafford threw his first pick and like
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: a year and a half and that kind of flipped
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: the game. So say what you want about McVeigh, Like
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: I knew he would love these this kind of team
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: and coaching them up, and he's really embraced I mean,
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: cam Akers whatever he said. He's like, let's see if
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: get rid of this guy, I'll have a different running back.
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: Like I don't want any of these people that just
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: aren't with us on this journey. And you know, it
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: might have been a complaint about touches, whatever it was.
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: I love the Rams mentality of no, you're not even
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: gonna dress like you're gone, Like they they literally didn't
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: let him come to the game last week and didn't matter.
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: Like that kid Williams looks like a good running back
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: for them. So yeah, this this RAMS team, this faceless team,
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: Like Chad said, we loved the number. That's what sucks
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: so much is this was going to be a play
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: at six and a half for sure, and I was
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: like the public was going to come in on this
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: Bengals team in a get right spot and it was
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: going to be great taking this Rams team. And now, yeah,
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: if this, if it is Joe out and it's their
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: backup quarterback, probably gonna end up on the Bengals at
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: minus you know, or a plus one plus two at home.
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: The Bengals just starting as bad as they've looked. I
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: think it's more on Joe Burrow.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: Joe.
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: Joe's the one that just hasn't looked right. So Bengals
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: defense might not be as good as they've been this
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: past couple of years. That's fair to say too. Like
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: they've struggled these first two weeks, but they went up
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: against a divisional foe in the Browns and then the Ravens.
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: Like that's a really hard stop start for that defense.
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: So right right there with you, Chad, where it's like
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: we wanted to be on the Rams. Now we're gonn
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: and probably be on on the Bengals.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: Let me summarize here exec decision Denver Broncos plus seven,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Bucks plus five and a half games we've
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: circled that we're feeling fairly confident that we'll talk about
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: again on Thursday, that our contest leans right now. It's ugly, folks,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: it's ugly Texans eight and a half, Pats minus three
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: could be Cards plus twelve and a half could be
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: Bears plus twelve and a half Las Vegas. Simon felt
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: really strongly about that one and a half Bucks plus
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: five and a half, Denver plus seven I should say
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: as well. So things will change over the next forty
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: eight hours based on this podcast. Lines will move. But
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: those are some of the conversations we'll pick up on
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Thursday when we do Foxhole, Big Balls, Sharp Calls, all
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: the good stuff. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is
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