Latest / Best of Business / Jarrod Kerr: Kiwibank chief economist on whether inflation is set to go down following recent stats

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Jarrod Kerr: Kiwibank chief economist on whether inflation is set to go down following recent stats · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks'd be follow
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  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio Afternoon.
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  Speaker 2: Inflation has come in today at three percent, which puts
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  Speaker 2: inflation at the very top of the Reserve Bank's target range.
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  Speaker 2: It was driven by council rates up nearly nine percent
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  Speaker 2: and power prices up more than eleven percent. Jared Kerr
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  Speaker 2: is Kiwibank's chief economist and with us Hi, Jared Hi,
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  Speaker 2: are you worried about this or deerkin inflation falls away
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  Speaker 2: from here?
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  Speaker 3: No, we think this is the peak. It's a pretty
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  Speaker 3: tough quarter the third quarter, but things tend to ease
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  Speaker 3: off in the fourth quarter. So we had a bit
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  Speaker 3: of a spike in food, electricity, council rates, you know
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  Speaker 3: that sort of unwinds from here and scratching beneath the surface.
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  Speaker 3: We're quite satisfied that domestic prices are heading in the
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  Speaker 3: right direction. Not much we can do with the international prices.
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  Speaker 2: Where do you see it going? I mean I read
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  Speaker 2: somewhere that it might it might even vote fall below
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  Speaker 2: two percent next year. Do you think that?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's our walkass. We think inflation this time next
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  Speaker 3: year we'll be running at about one point seven one
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  Speaker 3: point eight, So job done for the Reserve Bank. The
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  Speaker 3: Reserve Bank really has employed a scorched earth policy here
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  Speaker 3: with domestic prices coming off quite quickly and likely to
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  Speaker 3: fall over next year.
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  Speaker 2: So what are you going for another cut in November
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  Speaker 2: twenty five basis points.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's done and dust it. I think
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  Speaker 3: we can almost talk about that in the past tense.
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  Speaker 3: It's what they do from there. If the economy does
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  Speaker 3: not show signs of recovering over summer, then I think
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  Speaker 3: the new arvins and government will be more than willing
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  Speaker 3: to drop it to two percent. But we're getting close
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  Speaker 3: to that bottom, which is the key message for business owners,
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  Speaker 3: and we are looking to next year with some optimism.
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  Speaker 2: Jared, it's good to talk to you. Thank you mate.
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  Speaker 2: That's Jared Kirky, we Bank's chief economist.
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