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Dec 22 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the December 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel. He's at agmarket dot net, and we'll hear too about the marketplace from Chad Hart, Iowa State University Extension agricultural economist. And as we close out our time together, we'll take a look at the weather forecast not only for the holiday week here in The United States, but across the planet, particularly in South America as it's related to the corn and soybean crops there.
• 0:37
  We'll do that with Mark Russo. He is at Everstream Analytics all on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.toddgleason services are made available to WILL by University of Extension. March corn settled today at $4.47. That was up three and a quarter.
• 1:03
  The May contract at $4.54 and a half a bushel, three higher. And December futures for new crop up 2 and a half cents. A settlement price there at $4.64 and a half. January soybeans, 4¢ higher at $10.53 and a quarter. The March at $10.65, up 5 and a half cents.
• 1:19
  And November soybeans, $10.72 and a quarter, up 4 and a half. Bean meal, a dollar higher. The bean oil, 90¢ higher for the day, and the wheat future, soft red, at $5.15 and a half for the lead march, up five and three quarters. The hard red march at $5.21 and a quarter, finished 6¢ higher for the afternoon. Live cattle futures, up 62 and a half cents per 100 pounds at $231.42 and a half cents.
• 1:44
  Feeders at $340.50, a dollar 10 higher, and lean hogs traded at $85.35 on their last trade at 85¢ higher for the afternoon. Crude oil up a dollar 42 at $57.94 a barrel, and the wholesale price of gasoline about 3¢ higher at a dollar 74 and 8 tenths of a cent. Here to talk about some of these numbers is Kurt Kimmel. He is with agmarket.net. Hello, Kurt.
• 2:10
  Thanks for being with us on this Monday before Christmas.
• 2:14
  Curt Kimmel: Glad to be here. It is a short trading week. Wednesday, most markets close early around noon, 12:05. No markets on Thursday, of course, then trade resumes in the Grains 08:30 on Friday morning and a full day there. So a little choppy.
• 2:37
  It seems like we've lost a lot of interest. Volumes lightened up quite a bit in through here as traders kinda square away some positions ahead of Christmas and ahead of New Year's end of the year, Todd.
• 2:51
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. Speaking of being away, I will be away for the holiday break since you mentioned when we're being closed at the CME Group. We'll not have our regular updates on the home station from Christmas Eve through January, Monday the fifth, and we'll start then again. And the closing market report will be there. The farm assets conference will run most of the farm assets conference through that week, so you wanna tune in or catch the podcast, and you'll hear what happened on Friday the twelfth at the AgriCenter.
• 3:21
  Really good stuff, by the way. Now some of the things that we should talk about as it's related to the marketplace. Exports were out again, today. Looks like sales continue to come as it's related to China. I think in total around 4,000,000 metric tons officially and, what, something like 7,000,000 metric tons unofficially at this point?
• 3:42
  Curt Kimmel: Oh, boy. Yeah. It that's all over the place. It's kind of a moving target official, not official, shipped, not shipped, you know, this thing is going go on and on and on. But I've seen estimates as high as nine to 10,000,000 metric tons.
• 3:58
  We'll see. Seems to continue this morning we did see 396,000 tons of beans tagged to China. Three thirty is this old crop and 66,000 tons were the twenty sixth crop. So, we're just continuing to see a steady, pacing through here. Surprised the market didn't go down.
• 4:23
  It seems like we announced or have confirmation that the market just eases a little bit, lowering through here. The concern is the Chinese have been liquidating some of the reserve stocks, those stocks have not been going as planned, so I guess all they need to do is just lower the price a little bit, they'll get it moved out, but they continue to talk about that. Then also too on the exports side on the daily sales, we're seeing a situation where we've not seen confirmation of corn being tagged to China off the Pacific Northwest. There was talk of some Asia corn bite. We've not seen a big sale announced there.
• 5:03
  As far as the weekly sales go, we're continuing to play catch up there. Wheat sales was like three eighty one corn, almost 1.5, beans 1.55, so it just confirmed that we actually moved quite a bit of grain here this fall while I think I'm gonna shut down.
• 5:24
  Todd Gleason: Are there things that you're watching technically in the market marketplace? I know there's a head and shoulders in the soybeans and those sorts of things that, might make a difference, over the holiday week when we have, the possibility for larger moves because of lower volume.
• 5:41
  Curt Kimmel: Yeah. Bean Bean chart, we fulfilled the downside on that head, shoulders, top. We fulfilled the gap and then continue to proceed lower. We're actually down to the point of breakout, where the market took off there in October. And with the stochastic momentum indicators kind of flat lined down here at the lower end, I would assume that we'd see some stability and a little recovery to the upside as we approach year end.
• 6:12
  The corn, the beans, kind of the bulls maybe had Thanksgiving, the bears are having Christmas in through here. Corn just sideways, continues sideways. Charts, we've got March corn fairly good support, it's 4.35 area, resistance up around just above, 4.5. So we continue to see the, momentum, move sideways. We've kind of held the uptrend line in corn futures.
• 6:39
  We moved a couple days below it, but we're back above it. And also too, if you're moving average fan, we'll kind of hold that ten to twenty day, moving average, support level. Beans in order to go up and test their ten to twenty day moving average, we've got about $0.10 up for the ten day moving average and about, 28¢ up for the twenty day moving average. So that'd be more than welcome as a late Christmas present as we wrap up 2025.
• 7:08
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it. We'll look forward to talking with you in 2026.
• 7:13
  Curt Kimmel: Very good. Everybody have a safe and enjoyable holiday.
• 7:16
  Todd Gleason: Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net, joined us here on the closing market report on this Monday afternoon. Up next, we'll continue with our elevator pitch series from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention that took place in the month of November. Today, Mosaic.
• 7:41
  Ross Bender: My name is Ross Bender. I'm the director for product development at Mosaic, and I'm an alum 2015 alum of the crop physiology laboratory with doctor Fred Beelow. And what we're doing here today is talking about how we can advance crop nutrition. We bring to the table tools for farmers to help improve their nutrient use efficiency. So we have best in class crop nutrition sources with best in class biological tools.
• 8:08
  The mission of what we're doing here is trying to help farmers improve their nutrient use efficiency. We call that return on fertilizer investment. And what we've learned is with the new advancement in the biological tools, we have two products, Bio Path and Power Coat, We're able to increase uptake efficiency of the fertilizer that is applied during that year or legacy fertility that had been applied in previous years. Economics at the farm gate level I farm myself is very tight And finding ways to improve nutrient use efficiency is absolutely critical, and that's what we're here to talk about.
• 8:41
  Todd Gleason: Let's do talk about that a little bit. Does Mosaic as a company work with the University of Illinois in any way? Of course, you came through crop sciences. I'm suspecting that may be a good connection.
• 8:52
  Ross Bender: Yeah. We've Mosaic has been partnering with the crop sciences department at the University of Illinois in Champaign for fifteen, twenty years. We sponsor several different programs, notably the crop physiology laboratory, Doctor. Fred Bilod, Doctor. Connor Sibel.
• 9:08
  And what we are looking at is how we can develop comprehensive systems to maximize yield, maximize nutrient use efficiency. So a lot of the data that we generate, the the technologies we evaluate are in the backyard. They're in Champaign County. It's very applicable to that area.
• 9:25
  Todd Gleason: What are the things that they're working on today that you think are are of most interest and that you can talk about?
• 9:32
  Ross Bender: Yeah. We're obviously working on some new exciting technologies that we we won't be talking about today. But one of the things that we really have been focusing on is helping address misconceptions or just a lack of understanding around how to use biological tools. So we've been working on developing the technologies and developing data sets that we can help share with farmers so they can make their own informed decisions. One of the ways we've done that is we've created a really great resource called trueresponseworks.com, tru, trueresponseworks.com.
• 10:08
  And what we're doing is sharing all the data that we've generated, a lot of which is in Champaign and other areas of Illinois, so farmers can make some of those informed decisions. Because to your point, one of the questions we get is, do they work, and how do they work, and can you share that with us? So we're trying to be, we're we're we're flipping the script on that and being very transparent while sharing that data with farmers.
• 10:29
  Todd Gleason: Ross Bender is the director of product development for the Mosaic Company. I spoke with him at the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention in November. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Tug Gleason, agricultural economist from Iowa State Extension based on the campus of Ames. Chad Hart now joins us. Thank you for being with us, Chad.
• 11:03
  Let's talk about imports or exports, I suppose, to China of soybeans where we stand today. There's a lot of confusing numbers. Some are at zero, some at 4,000,000 metric tons, some at 7,000,000 metric tons, and frankly, I think they're all correct. It's just how you're putting the addition together. So what numbers are you relying upon?
• 11:32
  Chad Hart: Oh, yeah. So in this case, would say they're all technically correct, which is an academic we always love to be technically correct. But here's the deal. How do you get a zero right now? Well, if you look at the Chinese data as far as US beans that have, you know, hit their shores, we're still at zero.
• 11:53
  When I look at the weekly export sales data that USDA is catching back up on, given the delays during the government shutdown. That would show that China has purchased about 4,000,000 metric tons thus far. And, you know, while those haven't hit the shore yet, they will be moving along that way. And for those eagle eyed observers that have been tracking the daily sales that are reported, under USDA system, you could get yourself up to about that 7,000,000 metric ton level because we have been seeing China being active especially here in late November early December and those data will eventually show up in the weekly sales data probably within the next couple of weeks and then they'll show up in that Chinese data within the next month or so.
• 12:47
  Todd Gleason: How has the marketplace been viewing this data, particularly recently as there's been a pullback, in soybean prices? And what is your expectation for any kind of rally to come if it would based off more reported actual sales?
• 13:07
  Chad Hart: Well, I think as you look at it right now, it was one of those deals of where we really traded up the rumor and then bid down the news. So the idea is we saw the rally before any purchases were made, but when when the agreement was sort of announced. And now with each resulting sale, the market's sort of discounting that along the way. And I think it's because the market is sitting here going, yeah, there's been an agreement. That agreement seems to be being held up here, but it also puts us still in a position to you know, China agreed to purchase 12,000,000 metric tons here for 2025, but that would still only be about half of what they usually do.
• 13:50
  And so hence the, let's call it, lack of excitement within the market as China fulfills that part of the deal.
• 13:58
  Todd Gleason: So the marketplace then has turned its gaze toward the Brazilian and Argentine crops, I take it?
• 14:04
  Chad Hart: It pretty much has. It's it's also looking to see will we see China go beyond what they agreed to, and I think they're betting right now. The answer is no because of what we see coming out of South America. That when you're looking at global soybean supplies, while that total global number is smaller this marketing year, it's not necessarily the case when we look at South America. That we continue to see Brazil growing by leaps and bounds there and therefore keeping downward pressure on soybean prices because no matter what we say about this deal with China, we do know that they usually have a clause in there that says, hey, you know, they can move to the Brazilian market if they find better prices there.
• 14:54
  Todd Gleason: Do you suppose that that means even after February, whether they have made the full 12,000,000 metric ton commitment or not, that when they look into the 2025 commit or '26 commitment, which for for them will be 25,000,000 metric tons, that they may find a negotiating stance that says, oh, wait. We're just gonna hold off on that until we get some better terms, and we'll be at a zero at least at some point during the calendar year for next fall's harvest.
• 15:26
  Chad Hart: Well, I think we could still see them be at a zero even if they didn't take that approach. If you think about it, I think they're gonna sort of argue, okay, that, you know, that this is on a, marketing year basis as opposed to a calendar year basis. And so we could see them slide back to zeros late spring, early summer again as they find those Brazilian soybeans, like I say, probably more attractive from a price perspective, but then start to maybe load up again on ours as we approach our harvest again. Sort of like we're seeing this year, but hopefully moving a bit earlier, than China move this time around. Because if you think about the timing of our sales, we do tend to see more purchases from China traditionally starting around August 1 and then sort of working its way into February.
• 16:23
  That's the six months where we tend to be the major supplier during that part of the year, and then South America tends to dominate the other six months.
• 16:34
  Todd Gleason: At this point of the year, which market do you expect to be the leader? Is it corn, soybeans, or even wheat?
• 16:42
  Chad Hart: Right now, you know, I I would have to tell you, I think it's corn. And when we're looking here, the reason I'm gonna say that is because we've been watching beans and retreat because, yeah, we've like I say, we we bid up the rumor and then we are are downplaying the news. When we look at wheat, it's not necessarily showing a lot of excitement here in the nearby, but we do see some strengths as we look further out in 2026. But corn, I would say, has been trying to figure out which way it's gonna run, and it's been keeping the other two crops sort of with it in a certain sense. And here, I'm gonna point back to exports.
• 17:22
  When you look at what we're seeing on the export side right now, it's helping buffer us from the, you know, still record crop that we, you know, see USDA putting on the board for us here that we have seen incredible sales thus far. But that's also because when we're looking here at the international market, US corn is well priced to move right now.
• 17:49
  Todd Gleason: How do you see if any changes to come in the January world ag supply and demand estimates, particularly on the consumption side?
• 17:58
  Chad Hart: Well, for corn, for example, you know, my my fear would be, I guess, I'll put it this way, is I I do expect the yield to slide some and production to slide. But as soon as that happens, I also expect that feed and residual number to move. Because as you look at USDA's numbers right now, they've got about 600,000,000 bushels worth of growth in feed and residual. Yet when we look at the livestock industry, feed demand's flat at best. So I know that's the number that's going to move there.
• 18:28
  Soybeans, I think in this case, there's still the, you know, the idea that China in 2026 is gonna fulfill that agreement, but it's likely gonna be, like I say, on a marketing year basis as opposed to a calendar year. So that demand will come in later. To me, the big wildcard there will be biofuels. Do we see soybean oil filling more of that renewable diesel guideline, especially as we look forward 2026 and 2027, given the Trump administration's announcement on what they would like to see with the renewable fuel standard.
• 19:05
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks, Buck. We'll talk with you again next month.
• 19:07
  Chad Hart: Thank you, sir.
• 19:08
  Todd Gleason: That's Chad Hart. He's an agricultural economist at Iowa State University based in Ames. I'm the Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson. Let's check-in now on the weather forecast. Mark Russo is here.
• 19:32
  He is with Everstream Analytics. I hope you're looking forward to a great holiday week. Thank you much for being with us again today.
• 19:40
  Mark Russo: Thank you, Todd. Thanks for thanks for having me, and, have merry Christmas to everyone.
• 19:44
  Todd Gleason: Indeed. Speaking of merry Christmas, let's start with that. It's looks like it's gonna be a warm Christmas at least for a good portion of the nation. Tell me about it.
• 19:53
  Mark Russo: It is. We're certainly seeing a retreat of the polar vortex here across The US, and this very mild pattern, which is now set up shop across The US, will be in place for not only this week, but on into next week as well with very mild temperatures, even some record setting temperatures here across the Central US. And along with that, we'll also be generally drier conditions here. So no big winter storms here in the Midwest or for that matter, much of the Central And Eastern US. Actually, all there there will be storminess around, but it's all on the West Coast.
• 20:28
  That's where the abundant precipitation, still warmer temperatures, but that's where all the lower elevation rain and mountain snow is gonna be here.
• 20:38
  Todd Gleason: So there is that old adage. We'll pay for it later, but, hopefully, I'm thinking maybe we paid forward on this one from the call. But but my guess is that's not really true either. So do do
• 20:50
  Mark Russo: we get cold of the two. Yeah. Yeah. Some of it, but there's probably going to be more cold and snow returning here, later in January, but more second half compared to the first half.
• 21:01
  Todd Gleason: Alright. Turn your attention to South America. Let's delve into some of the details of what's been happening, particularly in Brazil, Mato Grosso, where they have, I think, 30 to 40% of the soybean crop between Mato Grosso and a couple of other states in the Center West. How are things progressing there?
• 21:20
  Mark Russo: Things are progressing really well. They have adequate soil rice moisture right now, and that looks to continue going into the January. In fact, not only across Center West, but across all of Brazil. Rainfall totals here will continue to be generally near normal. And any area that has trended a little bit dry lately, can they have opportunities for rainfall and improvement.
• 21:44
  So we still don't see any issues developing for summer crops, especially soybeans here across Brazil. Argentina, also they've had favorable weather up to this point. We are watching a drier and warmer trend here at, well, year's end and into the start of next year into early January, and even some indications that it persists deeper into January as well. It's not across the entire Argentina grain belt, but that southern part of the belt, Buenos Aires and La Pampa, Southern Cordoba, that's the area, that does have some, you know, things to watch here in terms of, drier and warmer pattern that could become problematic, but it has to persist for an extended period of time.
• 22:26
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it.
• 22:28
  Mark Russo: You're welcome, Todd.
• 22:29
  Todd Gleason: That's Mark Russo. He is with AvaStream Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois, a public medium. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Over the winter break, you'll find there portions of the farm assets conference in the closing market report podcast. Make sure that you tune in each and every day right here at Illinois Public Media or catch it online at willag.org, or just look it up in your favorite podcast application by name.
• 23:04
  The Closing Market Report. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.