Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 186: Beef from Argentina? Trump’s Comments Spark Cattle Market Reactions with John Campbell

Transcript

186: Beef from Argentina? Trump’s Comments Spark Cattle Market Reactions with John Campbell · CattleUSA Daily

0:00
I know that this is an episode that so many of our audience
0:03
viewers have been itching for all week, absolutely all week,
0:08
since the current events news came out about Trump and
0:11
Argentina and the Truth Social Post and everything else in
0:15
between. And everyone wants to know what
0:18
are John's thoughts? What does John have to say about
0:21
this? Well, John and I break it down
0:23
today. We get nitty gritty and we we
0:26
get real honest and we talk about what is going on, our
0:29
thoughts, our candid thoughts just from different
0:32
conversations that we've had with other people about this
0:35
from our sources in DC, just different things that have kind
0:38
of got our minds turning right now and what our thoughts kind
0:43
of are on everything. I will say as we go into this
0:47
episode, John is on the road this week and we were trying to
0:52
make it work with John being on the road.
0:54
We got the app downloaded on his phone.
0:56
It was working there for a while.
0:58
And then his phone got a notification that it was
1:00
overheating. And he also got a couple phone
1:02
calls in the middle while we were on the while we were still
1:05
on his phone. And then his phone got a
1:07
conversation that he was overheating and he wasn't even
1:09
saying that many cuss words guys, but he ended up calling
1:12
me. And so at the end of the
1:14
episode, I'm just in here with my phone and John kind of wraps
1:18
it all up for us as well so that you guys can still finish out
1:22
hearing his thoughts on the market and what's next and
1:26
everything like that. So bear with us a little bit
1:28
through some of the technical jumps in this episode.
1:31
Hopefully our editing magic can smooth it out for you guys a
1:35
little bit. But before we jumped in, I did
1:37
just want to clarify that as you go into this episode as well.
1:41
So without further ado, let's go ahead and hop into this episode
1:44
with John. If you guys take a second and
1:46
make sure that you are subscribed on YouTube that you
1:49
are liking this podcast episode. If you enjoyed it, we would
1:52
really appreciate it here at the team.
1:55
Let's go ahead and hear from John.
2:00
Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily Podcast, your go to source for
2:03
the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
2:06
updates shaping agriculture today.
2:08
I'm your host Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
2:11
agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
2:14
Now let's dive into today's episode.
2:20
John, welcome back to the podcast.
2:22
Boy, oh boy, do we have a lot to talk about today.
2:26
I am. Man.
2:27
I'm very excited for this conversation.
2:30
You may not be when we're done. We'll see how it goes.
2:32
We'll see how it goes. Well, how did everything go in
2:36
Lahana this week? You are on the road right now.
2:39
How's how's everything going? How's the cattle market looking
2:42
this week for us? Great.
2:44
You know, it's a, it's just a super busy time of the year, not
2:47
only for me, but if you're in the cattle business that's why
2:50
it's fall and and everything is in full steam ahead right now.
2:55
Talking a little bit about Lahanta, yes, we were the victim
3:00
of limit down on Friday with our sale Monday, first big calf
3:04
sale. We had 7078 cattle here in
3:08
Lahata. Some of the real front end cabs,
3:11
the Wing Cabs, those big strings of reputation cabs, I'm going to
3:16
call them steady. They were probably a little
3:19
softer after, but boy oh boy. The bulk of our calves, I would
3:23
have to tell you 5 to as much as 15 lower.
3:28
I'll, I'll kind of give you some of the highlights, but here's
3:31
some 365 LB steers and I'm telling you about the very best
3:36
$6.10 a pound four weight calves up to 580.
3:42
We still had some 5 weight steers knocking right on $5 load
3:47
lots, all black, all weaned and some unweaned.
3:52
Big but but again, reputation calves, high quality 640 weight
3:57
Spears from down here by Trinidad.
4:00
Just, you know, all out of Caneli Angus bulls, everything
4:04
right about them. Load lots brought 414.
4:08
They're Big Brothers again right off the cow. 700 pounders at
4:12
390. Over on the heifer side here in
4:16
La Hotta, 355 LB heifers at 5:55, we had some 420 weight
4:24
heifers up as high as 520 and five weight heifers 432 1/2 and
4:30
6 weight heifers up to 380. But you know that that's kind of
4:36
what I thought the pressure was. We would have 6 weight heifers
4:39
last week as high as $4.00 so and had more of them this week
4:44
and probably more depth in the quality so it was lower.
4:49
Yeah, Yeah. It definitely was.
4:50
Our markets definitely got hit early on this week and it's
4:55
we've been seeing it. We've been feeling it, that's
4:57
for sure. What about other markets across
4:59
the winter, livestock families? It's definitely a trend that we
5:01
saw kind of across the board. Or what are your thoughts there?
5:05
Yeah, it really was. And now Riverton had an
5:08
outstanding sale their sale the next day on Tuesday.
5:12
But you know, kind of like ours. Here's some 420 weight steers at
5:18
596. They had five weight steers at
5:21
Riverton, WY at 5 and 1/4 had 6 weight cattle up to 430 Heffer
5:28
side. I thought, you know, you go down
5:31
these prices, they were within a dollar of kind of what we got
5:34
done. 4/20 at 521 a pound. They had some 5 weight efforts
5:40
at 4:44 and some 6 weights. Our best was 380.
5:45
Riverton's best was 375. So we're talking about the same
5:49
thing. Dodge City kind of a steady
5:52
affair. 390 LB steers in Dodge City.
5:56
This would have been yesterday, Wednesday at five. 6500 LB
6:02
steers. Now that'd be cheaper. 480-2640
6:06
weight cattle up to $4. But again, LA Hana and Riverton
6:12
would be selling a lot of front end they're in that we're in the
6:16
thick of of our cattle numbers, big numbers and Dodge City is
6:21
just kind of starting on their calves wouldn't have the numbers
6:25
or the the numbers of high quality calves that that we
6:29
would have here in Colorado and and Wyoming.
6:32
But again, Dodge City four way to heifers at 468. 5 weight
6:37
efforts up to 397 weight efforts, 69 Pratt KS.
6:43
And they'll be interesting to see how they get along today.
6:46
But last week they just lit the board up.
6:49
Of course we were going from, you know, everything that caught
6:53
another gear by midweek last week and we were back.
6:57
Off to the. Races and Pratt really resembled
7:01
that. They called their deal 4 to 12
7:03
IR as we did in La Junta last week and to Brad as much as 25
7:10
higher Four weight steers, 645 weight steers 544 six weight
7:19
steers last Thursday, now 435 some big 8 weight guys 381.
7:27
So you know, you kind of compare Monday with the Thursday before
7:32
Monday. We had to go through the hard
7:34
announcement that came out over the weekend where Thursday they
7:38
were just reeling off all the good news that that took place
7:42
Tuesday, Wednesday, which good for them.
7:44
Four and a quarter weight heifers at Pratt five 65522 LB
7:50
heifers at 482 and you can see see like Riverton La Hata five
7:56
way to ever bring 43040 versus 482.
7:59
Now some of that you know may have been an outstanding
8:02
reputation string, but Pratt had 50 some 100 and we had 70 some
8:07
100. So we had some pretty good fruit
8:09
at both of those auctions too. But it just tells you the
8:12
difference Thursday to Monday Tuesday can make Salina not
8:17
getting a lot of cabs. But again, last Thursday, a week
8:21
ago today, which is old news, but three to seven higher at at
8:27
at Salina as well. But they'll probably take it on
8:33
the chin today, Thursday especially, but I hope not.
8:37
But well, that kind of remains to be seen.
8:41
And I I should have all those reports, but I've got a good
8:44
excuse why on the road and and I think my cat had kittens and so
8:51
I've been worried about them. Those are some great excuses,
8:55
John, Great excuses. Thank you, especially since I
8:58
don't even have a cat. You don't have a cat in your
9:01
back seat that's that's not your Rd. buddy.
9:06
No, no, it. Hey, hey, hold it down.
9:10
Sorry. Cat, Cat.
9:12
Cat dancer maybe I am in the PetSmart parking lot, you know,
9:19
So you say the word and then in 10 minutes I can have a cat and
9:23
a gold pen. You.
9:24
Said you were pulling over in the PetSmart parking lot.
9:26
I in Albuquerque, nonetheless. I didn't know whether it was
9:30
because you felt like it was safer or whether it was because
9:33
you needed some cat food. John, what can I say?
9:37
Yeah, I'm out here by the dumpster and it looks like a
9:41
small tornado went through here. Not only trash, but there might
9:46
be a dead body too, I'm not sure.
9:49
You never know. And Albuquerque, I, I commend
9:53
you for stopping in the 1st place.
9:54
You know what? It's still daylight, so it's OK.
9:57
It's OK. Now that's being committed,
10:00
isn't it? Son of a gun, I mean to be
10:04
taking one, taking one for the team here.
10:07
You really are. You really are.
10:08
You know what? It's going to be a really
10:10
eventful podcast if hopefully nothing happens.
10:13
Hopefully nothing happens. And it doesn't need to be an
10:16
eventful podcast. And no one sees a cowboy pulled
10:18
over in the PetSmart parking lot and they're like, whatever he's
10:22
up to. Jeez.
10:27
So on to different topics. What the hell is happening in
10:32
the world right now, John? Oh my gosh, what are your I have
10:39
fielded? A lot of calls.
10:41
AI mean a lot of calls, which I appreciate it.
10:43
I I appreciate. They say well.
10:46
But we can't figure anything else.
10:47
Let's call that big dummy and Lana and see what he's always
10:50
got something to say about something, even if it's wrong.
10:53
But but everybody concerned about Trump's comments and I, I
11:00
didn't like it. I don't think anybody did.
11:02
You know, he opens by relating cattle ranchers.
11:06
That's his first 2 words with beef prices.
11:10
And I've said it a jillion times, we are in the cattle
11:16
business, not the meatpacking business.
11:19
And someone needs to define to him the difference.
11:23
You know, a cattleman carries a whip and a Packer carries a
11:27
knife and no one has been whipped to death, but not many
11:31
people survive having their throat cut.
11:34
It's kind of like blaming the cotton farmer because you're
11:38
fruit of the looms give you a chalk itch.
11:40
But I don't, I don't know much. But, you know, I, I, I, I do
11:46
think I can tell when someone is pissed off.
11:52
And I think Trump's tone on the true social quote was not coming
11:58
from a happy camper. First of all, in just kind of
12:01
reference to the whole matter, if Argentina committed 100% of
12:07
their total exports to the US, it would raise our total meat
12:13
supply by whopping 2.5%. You know.
12:19
Hell, it wouldn't keep Meals on Wheels in cheeseburgers, let
12:23
alone lower the beef. Price.
12:26
Second of all is you know who handles all the meat when it
12:32
gets to the USI mean is the USDA going to set up a card table and
12:38
and give it away like the Nacho cheese program?
12:41
Or maybe if you give a quart of blood while you get a free pound
12:45
of hamburger, like, you know, hell no, they're going to give
12:49
it to the same Brazilian meat Packer that got us into all this
12:53
trouble in the 1st place and hope that the Packer sells it to
12:57
the consumer real cheap. Yeah, that that's really going
13:01
to happen. So, you know, I I either think
13:03
Donald J has been drinking his own bath water or somebody's
13:07
feeding him full of Coon Kaka. Or what I really think happened
13:12
is that a bunch of politicians and Cowboys with white hats and
13:16
no cows stuffed their pockets with check off dollars and went
13:21
to straighten Trump out. And he turned around and spanked
13:25
their ass shit in their nest and sent them back home is what I
13:28
think happened. You know, they got nothing
13:30
accomplished. The commodities crashed $25 a
13:34
hundred and it cost every calf seller from 100 to 150 bucks a
13:40
head right at the beginning of the fall calf run.
13:45
So also from a guy that bought these cabs on Monday and
13:49
Tuesday, whoever you might be today, you woke up and they're
13:54
worth a smooth $100 a head less than what you give to give for
13:59
him 2 days ago. So thank you very much for
14:02
everybody that went back there and pissed him off.
14:05
Have a sucker and a cigar, a big rib eye on me on your trip back
14:10
home. And that's really what I think
14:13
happened. And I'm still a Trump guy.
14:15
I despise what he said. Horrible.
14:18
But those were words of vengeance.
14:21
You know, I, I mean, you Cowboys, I got, I got you in the
14:25
spot you're in now. You'd be busted on your ass like
14:29
you have been the last 20 years if I wouldn't have put you
14:32
there. That is not a tone that comes
14:35
from somebody that hasn't recently been agitated.
14:40
And and I think somebody went up there and said, we're going to
14:44
spank your ass, Mr. Trump, and tell you how the shit goes down.
14:49
And we're upset over this and da, da, da, da, da.
14:51
And rightfully so we are. But man, oh, man, you can't poke
14:57
the lion with a sharp stick. And whether, and he's got a big
15:02
bigger ego than anybody. But all you did is, like I said,
15:06
he changed nothing. They accomplished nothing other
15:10
than train wreck. Everybody out here trying to
15:14
sell their calves that they get to sell once a year.
15:16
And I, I'm not blaming it all on them.
15:19
He was already going to do it. But he made damn sure to put the
15:24
note out there that he's ticked off at the Cowboys, and we are
15:29
Cowboys and we are cattle men and we have nothing, absolutely
15:34
nothing to do with what you give for a pound of hamburger.
15:38
Absolutely nothing. If you're coming and shopping
15:41
from my freezer, yeah, I have control over that.
15:45
But if you're going to Wally World and you're getting your
15:48
hamburger from there, like I have no control over that.
15:52
And like, I wish that I could just send APDF little picture of
15:57
a dollar and how it's split up within the beef market.
16:00
Like how much of the dollar goes to the cattleman, how much of
16:04
the dollar goes to the cow calf guy versus the feeder versus the
16:08
stalker versus the Packer versus the retailer?
16:11
And let's see who's actually influencing these prices.
16:15
And the thing about it is too is people are pissed off that these
16:18
prices are high, which I mean, I get it.
16:21
Grocery prices are high, guys. Like I'm a consumer just like
16:25
everyone else's. Thankfully, I have a freezer
16:27
full of beef because we just get a steer from the house.
16:29
But it's still one of those situations that I am bravely
16:32
aware that steaks are $25 a pound.
16:35
But here's the thing also, I had a great conversation with
16:40
someone this morning and they were like they had spoke to a
16:44
friend, a parent, someone that said if you take the metric
16:47
weight of a Snickers bar and you put 2 lbs, you are paying the
16:54
same for a Snickers bar as you are for a steak.
16:59
Yeah, and you could make that comparison 100 times over.
17:02
It's all your perspective. But I think the thing that
17:06
agitates me is, you know, Trump comes out and says, you cattle
17:10
ranchers, Well, hell, it ain't that.
17:13
And that's what makes me think it's the cattle ranchers that
17:18
supposedly represent us and the senators that they had their
17:22
little meeting up there and they poked the bull and they ticked
17:26
him off. And because, and I'm repeating
17:29
myself, but if you read on true social, like I said, he he's not
17:34
a happy camper. He, he wants a piece of
17:36
somebody's ass and I, he can't help but believe he's not
17:41
surrounded by people that don't tell him, hey, Don, it ain't the
17:47
Cowboys that's causing the meat to get high.
17:50
You know, it's supply. It's the man.
17:53
Yes, the drought had something to do with it.
17:55
But in the big picture, as we talked last time, it is vertical
18:00
integration that has stuffed out 100 and some 1000 cattle
18:05
producers because they can no longer compete.
18:08
And guess what? This is where we're at.
18:11
And so don't take it out on the cow calf guy, on the Cowboys
18:16
that are buying cattle and stalkers and urines because your
18:20
hamburger Patty is too damn high.
18:23
We ain't got nothing to do with that.
18:25
And I think he should know that. But like I said, somebody's
18:29
feeding him full of crap or else the Cowboys went in and twisted
18:35
him off and he said, OK, here's what I'm going to do, boys.
18:40
I'm going to sort you cattlemen out.
18:42
You come up here and preaching to me, I'll sort you boys out
18:46
and we'll see who wins this battle.
18:49
And the results are right now. Down 900 on Friday, down 900 on
18:56
Wednesday, down 4500 again today.
18:59
Who's really taking it on the chin?
19:01
You think the Packer is? Well Christ's sakes, in four
19:06
days you're selling calves. Hell, adios 100 and 5200 bucks a
19:12
head. Yeah, and we're.
19:13
Not even selling cheeseburgers, man, you talk and I'm not, I'm
19:18
still a Trump fan, but it infuriates me.
19:21
But what I really want to know, and I'm speculating on that, I
19:25
want to know who ticked him off, You know what I mean?
19:28
And and he was going to do it anyway.
19:30
But like, here's my thing with it is like, yeah, someone,
19:35
someone walked in and pissed him off.
19:36
Someone walked in and pissed him off.
19:38
Because like you said, that post on Truth Social was very
19:41
aggravated. That's the way I interpreted it.
19:44
I'm. Gonna read it.
19:45
I'm gonna read it real. No, I, I know what it I know
19:47
what it says, yeah. Just for anyone else who hasn't
19:50
read it but it's. Yeah.
19:51
No, no, no, no, no. Good, good make.
19:54
Yeah. Good make make rancors.
19:57
Love don't understand that the only reason they are doing so
20:00
well for the first time in decades is because I put tariffs
20:03
on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% tariff
20:06
on Brazil. They also have to get their
20:09
prices down because the consumer is a very big factor in my
20:11
thinking. Also, this is obviously someone
20:15
who got ticked off who we went up in arms off of his comments
20:20
about Argentinian beef and bringing in more imports and all
20:24
these things. And rightfully so.
20:25
Like I understand where the cattle producer is coming from
20:28
with this. I also think that our reaction
20:31
caused more of a market reaction due to the news then bringing in
20:36
Argentina. Beef actually would have caused
20:38
to the market because like you said, it would have impacted it
20:42
2%. We have other countries that we
20:46
import significantly more beef in than we do Argentina.
20:50
And it's one of those situations that yes, like it's annoying.
20:57
I'm not happy he said it. Do I agree with that single
21:00
thing he said? Absolutely not.
21:03
Do I still think that? Like, his policies have been
21:05
great, He's been doing a great job on other things, Yes.
21:08
I wish that he would have consulted the right people
21:11
before he made those comments in the 1st place and we wouldn't be
21:14
in this PR disaster that we are in right now because it is just
21:20
a cycle. And then he dug his heels in
21:24
with the true social post. And I I agree, I think someone
21:28
aggravated him. And so he went on true social
21:30
like he does with a lot of things.
21:32
And he made a tweet, which I mean, hello to the story of
21:35
politics for his term. Like you piss him off and he's
21:38
going to go on true social and write something about it.
21:41
So someone ticked him off. I just I agree with you.
21:45
And the fact that I wish when they ticked him off, they would
21:47
have at least LED with the fact that like, hey, this isn't
21:49
cattle ranchers problem. Like go talk to your meat
21:52
Packers. Go talk to.
21:53
Your retailers. And the other thing that is
21:55
really annoying 2 is like these retailers and these meat
21:58
Packers, they're not going to adjust their prices.
22:00
Now. We're not going back to dollar
22:02
hamburgers at McDonald's. That's not going to happen.
22:05
If brief prices lower and they're able lower and they're
22:07
able to get a cheaper product, their prices are going to stay
22:11
the same and their margins are just going to increase, so.
22:14
Yeah, because they're going to get, like I said, right there.
22:19
Trump's got to get the beef in their hands because they're the
22:22
only ones that can handle and distribute it and grind it and
22:26
take care of it. So you're putting it right into
22:30
the Brazilians hands and you're saying, well, yeah, yeah, be
22:34
sure, be sure when we give you all this meat, you can back off
22:38
the price now for the boys. And hell, they'll, they'll,
22:41
they'll blend that product with the US product, put a label on
22:45
it, and OK, what are you going to do?
22:47
Mark it down $0.20 a pound and or 30 or 50 and all of a sudden
22:53
everybody's got smiley faces. Now, again, it only counts for
22:58
2% if they'd send every bit of the Argentine meat here.
23:02
Forget about all the other places they send it.
23:04
So you're exactly right. When all you've done is created
23:10
a media Firefall and, and, and firestorm rather.
23:15
And you know when you got the speculators that are in the
23:19
commodity market and you, they can tie up a load of cattle for
23:24
3200 bucks and they don't own the first one of them and they
23:28
get some bad news in their house, they puke and they start
23:33
dumping it. And that's what happened Friday.
23:36
That's what happened Wednesday. And that's what followed through
23:39
today. Again, I repeat myself, it ain't
23:43
the Cowboys that have got the physical inventory that are
23:47
hedged that are puking. They can't.
23:50
They got to stay on for the ride.
23:52
But the speculators, the commercial paper, the Packers
23:56
that own all the commodities, bad news, they markets do not
24:01
like indecisiveness. They do not like bad news.
24:05
And those guys will puke them up and say we're stepping out and
24:10
we're going to wait and see how all this shit shakes out.
24:13
And then we'll decide what we want to do.
24:16
In the meantime, you Cowboys holding the physical inventory,
24:21
Here's your sign. Take it right up the rectum.
24:25
Other than that, I'm not in the. Business structure that allows
24:28
them to do that, like they. And you know what?
24:31
It's good business on their part.
24:32
I can't really freaking blame them for it.
24:34
But that goes back to what we talked about last week, that at
24:38
the end of the day, it is the cattle rancher that gets
24:41
screwed. Like there's.
24:43
Yeah. Yeah.
24:45
And and I don't care if he's a commodity trader or not at these
24:49
levels, warn everybody that is buying feeder cattle, buying
24:54
calves is either buy an insurance or shorten the board
24:59
or doing some kind of a spread that both, all three of those
25:03
are reflected to the CME, the Chicago Merchant Tail Exchange.
25:08
And when you RIP 25 bucks out of that, everybody says I got to
25:13
buy them cheaper. Yeah.
25:14
Yeah, no, it's, it's crazy. And I it just one thing about it
25:20
is one media story causes this much of A disruption to our
25:26
entire industry. Like we have seen the fire get
25:31
absolutely lit on the haystack and everything went up in
25:35
flames. People's reaction, in my
25:38
opinion, was a little too harsh, a little too quick.
25:42
But that is PR like that is public relations.
25:45
That is why these major corporations pay hundreds of
25:48
thousands of dollars and millions of dollars for good PR
25:50
teams because they don't want the haystack to go up in flames,
25:54
right? And so I think that the reaction
25:57
was little bonkers. And then Trump dug his heels in
26:02
and it just made it worse. Like now everyone's really
26:05
focused on it. Everyone is reporting on this.
26:07
We were talking last week about how, like, just keep us out of
26:10
the media. Stop talking about us.
26:12
I don't no one needs to hear about the cattle industry.
26:14
Just let us do our thing. And now everyone is talking
26:18
about us. And they're not going to stop.
26:20
Hopefully this new cycle is quick.
26:23
Luckily, most of the new cycles in DC are quick.
26:26
But the new cycle of the cattle industry is not quick.
26:29
And I think that this is going to be something that we're
26:31
probably going to be feeling for a little while.
26:33
The market correction needs to come.
26:36
My biggest thing is I am really sick of government intervention
26:41
as far as the market goes. Like let the market be a free
26:46
market. Stop trying to influence the
26:48
market in ways that it shouldn't be influenced.
26:51
The market does what the market does and it does it well.
26:55
Like it's going to correct. It's going to have highs, it's
26:57
going to have lows, but don't come in here and try and
27:02
influence that will. Do you have anything else to say
27:05
or I can just kind of wrap us up?
27:06
No. I, I, I, I think it's good other
27:10
than, you know, you might put, we shared thoughts that, you
27:13
know, fundamentally, I don't think a damn thing has changed.
27:17
We have yet to get the first pound of meat from anywhere.
27:24
And, you know, fundamentals are still supply and demand, I think
27:28
are still going to pan out. And I don't think this is going
27:31
to amount to much. The only thing that concerns me
27:34
is he would really have to know Argentina can't supply us with
27:39
enough beef. So I think that's the continued
27:43
pressure on the commodities, Lauren, because he's if he wants
27:47
a lower beef price and get more meat in here, he's got to look
27:50
somewhere besides Argentina. Yeah, Yeah, No, Well, and I
27:54
agree with that too. And I think that that goes back
27:56
to what we were talking about on the 2% thing, right?
27:59
Like Argentina isn't gonna make a dent in anything.
28:01
Like there's nothing in the world cattle market.
28:04
Like do I wanna be bringing in beef from anywhere?
28:08
No. But we also have to acknowledge
28:10
the fact that the US cattle herd is down and our supply, like is
28:14
down and our demand is up. So we need to fill that with
28:17
something. But I don't want us to get in
28:19
this cycle where we're filling it with someone else's beef and
28:22
not supporting the US cattlemen and letting them rebuild their
28:26
herd so that we can be self sustainable.
28:30
Right, right, because we're not going to get it done here.
28:33
And he talks about tariffs on cattle import shit.
28:38
We're not getting any cattle from Brazil.
28:41
Argentina know where they send meat.
28:43
They don't send cattle and we're not gonna get not get.
28:46
So you know, Canada, I and I really shouldn't talk about that
28:51
'cause I don't know what the hell we get, but I don't think
28:53
we get many cows from Canada. So you are a year and a half out
28:59
before any kind of increase comes from the US from
29:04
internally. And that would, you know, and
29:07
that's going to be very minuscule because, yeah, maybe
29:10
we're retaining a few more heifers, but hell, we're killing
29:14
cows faster than we're keeping heifers.
29:17
And it's going to be a while before the US cow herd
29:21
replenishes itself, I can tell you that.
29:24
Yeah, no, exactly, exactly. And like we have so much issue
29:29
with our foreign markets just in general right now and the other
29:33
top producing countries of cattle right now that like I, I
29:39
want to know why Argentina. Like that's the, I think that's
29:42
my question and I have speculation and I have thoughts
29:45
on why he said Argentina. I think that there was maybe
29:48
some meetings with Argentina and they were like, let us into your
29:51
cattle market and we'll play game on something else else.
29:54
Something like there's something else at play that made him say
29:57
Argentina because they're only 2%.
29:59
What's? That OK?
30:01
The Argentine guy, what's his name?
30:04
Melee. Yeah, something like that.
30:06
OK, All right. I and I don't know if it's a
30:09
reelection year or he's taken quite a bit of heat and he is a
30:14
Trump guy. He's a libertarian.
30:17
He is very conservative. Trump wants to keep him in his
30:21
pocket. I think they've got huge.
30:24
General. Deposits now.
30:25
Lauren heard it from a guy that heard it from a guy.
30:28
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So.
30:30
And then he wants to keep that guy on the top of the stack, so
30:35
he sent him 20 billion. And the soybean boys are pissed
30:40
off because they're buying Chinese soybeans and Trump give
30:44
him 20 billion. So they're all pissed off.
30:47
The cattle guys are pissed because he's going to let them
30:51
bring median duty free and he's got he's playing a card with he
30:57
needs something Argentina has got and and these are the cards
31:02
that he's got to play. We've got a really good beef
31:05
market. Hell, pat yourself on the back
31:08
that you made a deal and you dumped a bunch of meat in the US
31:11
at a hell, double the price that you can get for it there.
31:15
And I'll give you 20 billion also.
31:18
And then let's talk again down the road after we get you re
31:22
elected and all the people love you and maybe we make a little
31:27
mineral. Yeah, yeah.
31:28
That is what I think and comes from decent sources I I think.
31:35
Yeah. Well, I mean, it makes sense,
31:38
right? Like you think about it and
31:40
you're like, strategically, it doesn't make a whole hell of a
31:44
lot of sense to play ball with Argentina on a cattle market
31:48
alone. Like that is it?
31:50
We're the cattle market is a pawn like we are.
31:52
We are not the king or queen on this chess board.
31:55
Like I I don't play chess so I might just said all that shit
31:58
wrong but like we're just a pawn in this and being used for
32:02
something bigger. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,
32:03
yeah. And that's why all the more that
32:06
I think, see the NCBA gurus all, like I said, the guys with the
32:11
white hats and no cows, they went down there and and they did
32:16
the head of the NCBA met with Trump and about 34 politicians
32:22
and told him, Oh my God, this Argentine deal, you just can't
32:27
believe it. And our producers won't do it.
32:29
And before they did their homework and it meant nothing.
32:33
If they'd have kept their mouth shut and parked their happy ass
32:36
at home, you know what I'm saying?
32:38
I mean they wouldn't have pissed him off and he's wrong.
32:41
Don't get me wrong Trump is wrong.
32:44
But they didn't accomplish anything.
32:46
And maybe they they'd have probably the media, you know,
32:49
commercial longs would have probably puked anyway just cuz
32:53
that's what they run off the rumor mill.
32:55
But we didn't help our cause, sticking our chest out over
33:00
something that was not a fight we needed to fight.
33:04
Yeah, yeah, let. The damn field come in and let's
33:09
let's find a better battle. It's like fighting over my wife
33:13
and knock down drag out because one of the kids left a sock on
33:17
the couch. Yeah.
33:19
You know, piss on that. Let's wait until we have a
33:22
better day and and something in our toolbox we can work with.
33:27
Not at 2% to the total meat supply and having a meltdown red
33:32
ass over nothing. So anyway.
33:36
No, I agree. I agree with that.
33:38
What are your thoughts on what's next?
33:40
You. Know.
33:41
It's just we, we hope that it goes back.
33:44
And we have seen this about 7 times, Lauren, where we've had a
33:49
Mexican deal, we've had a screw worm deal.
33:52
We've added this and the market has dropped big time and it's
33:57
come back and put a higher high every time, every time in the
34:02
last 6 Times Now. Does it do it this time?
34:05
Like I said the thing and this was Trump to his timing could
34:09
not have been worse. This is harvest time for the cow
34:14
calf producer. 80% of them are doing business.
34:19
They're selling their whole year cap cap crop right now and you
34:23
just kicked them right in the head.
34:26
And. It's it's still good, don't get
34:28
me wrong, but Lauren, 150 bucks is 150 bucks.
34:33
And like I said at the end of the day, and not only the cow
34:37
calf guy gets that jerked out of his slack.
34:41
And I bought about 500 calves on Monday and I'm the guy I'm
34:45
talking about that woke up this morning and now I'm, I don't
34:52
even have a break even and I had 150 bucks May I had made two
34:56
days ago. So it, it jerked the slack out
35:00
of me too. I got part of them hedged ahead
35:02
of time, but not all of them because I thought, well, and I
35:06
still believe that this is going to play out.
35:09
And by the time I get ready to sell cattle in January, we'll
35:13
maybe get some of it back. But you know, I'm a hedger and I
35:18
think most people are or buying insurance or something because
35:24
we're we're at such high levels. I'm not running naked up here at
35:28
$24500 a head on these son of a bucks when I can make 150 bucks,
35:35
I'm going to get it. Hell, I didn't even have time to
35:38
get it. They kicked the ladder out from
35:40
under me down the limit. You couldn't sell them if you
35:43
wanted to. Yeah, yeah.
35:44
No, I, I agree with that. I think that this is a season
35:48
and it's just a season that just happened to come at a really
35:51
freaking bad time. Like I wish that this would have
35:55
been three months ago or something like that.
35:58
That way we could have had time to recover and could have had
36:01
time to come back from this before CAF run, before everyone
36:05
is selling. And I'm just praying that we
36:08
come back in January and February and we're ready to play
36:11
ball again. The market is corrected and
36:14
we're doing what we need to do as far as the cattle industry
36:17
goes. Yeah, and the market is, you
36:20
know, like I said, it's real indecisive.
36:23
I mean, you start hearing stuff about well, I remember what
36:26
happened in 74 when Nixon put a freeze on it.
36:29
And and, you know, I have to be careful because, and I honestly
36:34
believe this. I don't, you know, hell, the
36:36
market is still good. It's still great.
36:40
But you know, crypes sakes some mighty timing just couldn't have
36:45
been more bass ackwards. And I, I don't know, like I
36:49
said, I I don't think Trump realizes that.
36:52
Or if he does, like I said, the Cowboys showed up and he said,
36:56
you know what, you guys are in a windfall and you're in here
37:00
bitching to me about adding. 2% of the deal.
37:06
Well, OK, OK. And his ego took over.
37:10
Well. You know the rest of the story
37:11
I've. Already said it.
37:13
But, and I don't know that that's what happened, but I
37:17
comes from a pretty good source that they all got together and
37:23
told Trump what their displeasure was and I was mad
37:29
too. I didn't, but I was mad after
37:33
the fact. If they don't left it the hell
37:35
alone. Any of this crap.
37:37
Yeah. Story of Story of the.
37:39
Day like it was 2% we reacted a lot to 2% and the media grabbed
37:47
it and they ran with it and we all fell victim to it because
37:51
you see those headlines and it's easy to get wrapped into them
37:55
really quickly and not know the full story and not know
37:58
everything that's going on and I just I hope that this is a
38:02
season and that we're able to push through and then hopefully
38:06
for everyone selling right now that things start to correct in
38:09
the next few weeks and you know what if they don't then
38:12
remembering that hey we got spring like spring will be here
38:16
and we can we can push through until then we just got to get
38:18
through winter and get through these next few months but yeah
38:22
I, I don't agree with anything that was said but hopefully we
38:26
can move forward to this yeah well, but you know.
38:29
The market's emotion, yeah, You know what I mean?
38:32
And nobody, you know, it's kind of like the space shuttle asked
38:37
Lauren and John what they think of the space shuttle.
38:40
And all we can tell you is about what we heard on the news.
38:43
Yeah. Shit we don't know nothing
38:44
about. The space.
38:45
Shuttle. Well, you tell a bunch of
38:48
commercial longs that you're going to dump all this meat on
38:51
the market and they think, my God, Get Me Out.
38:56
Yeah, Yeah, because the. Biggest player in the you know.
38:59
Is some fun that's by the retired teachers union, you
39:06
know, Hey, Charlie, shit. What are we?
39:08
We're in the cattle futures and we're going to have a bunch of
39:11
pissed off retired teachers if we hand their ass to them.
39:15
I say we get out. Yeah, that is that is fact.
39:19
I mean, that's what makes up these commercial longs and all
39:22
this stuff. Hell, they're not going to dig
39:24
around and wait around. Well, let's relax.
39:27
Let's let the market fault $25 a hundred because the fact is it
39:32
doesn't make that much difference.
39:34
Well guess what Joe? You just cost our investors X
39:38
amount of trillions of dollars while you were parked on your
39:42
ass investigating what really is happening.
39:45
And the emotion of it wrecked the market.
39:48
Doesn't matter what's fact or what's not fact.
39:51
Yeah, it's the emotion because. I mean, it takes too long to
39:55
gather the facts. Like people see they got to act
39:57
fast. Like the people that run these
40:00
markets, they have to act fast. They see a headline and they've
40:03
got to act in that second if they want to still maintain
40:06
their positions and their millions of dollars investments
40:09
and all of these things. Otherwise they could be out on
40:12
their ass tomorrow. Like, yeah, it's all so
40:15
emotional. Yeah, what about the cow calf
40:19
guy? Schmuck?
40:20
He's got to sell his now. Yeah, he has no choice.
40:24
Can't wean? Him he don't have no.
40:26
Feed lot, he needs the money, They come off the mountain, he's
40:29
got no place to put him. It's harvest time.
40:32
He has got a perishable commodity that he's got to do
40:36
something with and you're kicking him in the head?
40:39
Yeah, that's the guy I feel for. Piss on the teachers union and
40:45
the. Longs.
40:46
What about the? That's at the bottom of the food
40:49
chain kick because he doesn't have any other option.
40:53
And Trump saying it's the ranchers.
40:56
Yeah, Jesus. We've about wore that out.
41:01
Lauren, do you you kind of get the grip of how I really feel.
41:05
I I think I'm starting to pick. Up on it, John.
41:08
I, I might need you to tell him, like, run us around the merry go
41:11
round a few more times before it really sticks in.
41:14
But hell, I'm going to have to do so much editing on this
41:17
episode that I think I'll get it by the end of the night.
41:22
Leave the PowerPoints. In and I know you will.
41:25
All right. Alrighty, perfect, John.
41:26
Well. Thank you for yes, we'll see you
41:29
later. Thanks John.
41:31
Bye. Thank you guys for sticking with
41:33
us through that episode today. I know it was a little crazy,
41:37
but John and I really wanted to get this episode recorded and
41:41
out to you guys. This is hot news, and I know
41:44
every single one of you really care about what's going on right
41:47
now, and a lot of you want to hear John's thoughts and hear
41:50
John's opinions, and so we really wanted to get this out to
41:53
you today. So sorry about the choppiness of
41:55
the episode and the little impromptu DIY that we had to do
42:00
there at the end. I hope that you guys were still
42:02
able to hear John and stay engaged in all of the things
42:05
like that. You kind of got a glimpse into
42:07
John and I thoughts and opinions on the market Trump's comments
42:11
on Argentina beef and just the cattle market in general.
42:15
It's been a wild week for the cattle rancher.
42:19
Our thoughts and our prayers are with every single one of you.
42:22
I do want you to know that for everyone that does have to be in
42:25
that position of taking your cattle to the sale barn and you
42:27
don't have another choice and you're getting screwed right
42:29
now. Our thoughts and our prayers are
42:31
with you. I I feel you.
42:33
It is not an easy time to be a cattle rancher and the timing
42:37
couldn't have been worse. But hopefully John and I's
42:40
thoughts today and just our conversation was able to spark
42:43
some thoughts in your own mind and you're able to have some
42:47
really great fruitful conversations with those around
42:49
you about what is going on right now, what the cattle market is
42:52
looking like, and that John was just able to glean some insight
42:56
for all of you today. Thank you so much for listening
42:59
to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
43:02
We will see you all next time and hopefully next week John and
43:06
I are able to figure out our technical difficulties as well.
43:10
So thanks y'all. Have a good one.