Latest / The Jake Wimberly Podcast / Raphael Esparza Breaks down All the Betting Action in the NFL and College this Week

Transcript

Raphael Esparza Breaks down All the Betting Action in the NFL and College this Week · The Jake Wimberly Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Busy? I mean, it's football season, so everyone thinks Labor
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Day is an extra day off. I got a Monday holiday. Nope,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: not in my world. I don't have Jake's kind of
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: schedule where he gets vacations and gets to go all
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: over the world and travel with his payroll that he
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: gets at the station. Some of us little guys have to,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: you know, grind every day, 365 days a year. None,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: because last time I'm looking at this list, there's no
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Indiana quarterback who had a great game for the Big Ten. So, no,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, Miami, they played an extra game than everyone
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: else seems like. They're ahead of the schedule. Sam Levitt
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: really against Clemson. I mean, you could have scored on
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Clemson's defense. That list means nothing to me whatsoever. I
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: was excited until Sam Donald's limping around, and he's doubtful
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: to come back with a hip injury. So I was
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: there at 0-0 in the second quarter right now. So
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: I thought we were going to see maybe a high-scoring game.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Just because I thought Drake May probably still has nightmares.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: He got sacked six times in the Super Bowl. So
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: I really thought this might have been a little bit
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: of a scoring feast. But no, so far it's been
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: a borefest. No. But, I mean, living here, and you're
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: probably close to it, I mean, the governor runs everything,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: it seems like, in the state. And I just think
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: people probably were whispering in his ears, saying, hey, we
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: can't lose this. Because I heard from my multiple sources,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: from two reliable sources that I do, there were two
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: easy yeses that they wanted them out of there. So
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: that's just the two people that I talked to. So
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I thought they could have been a very good chance.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: They would have gotten more than 11 points. Boats to
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: kick them out of the SEC. Because I've heard multiple times,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: this is not just about football. Everyone thinks, oh, it's football, football.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: But LSU does this pretty much in almost all sports.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: They're the only school that I know that would do
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: this for every sport. Now, I mean, men's basketball, I
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: still can't believe they have hired Wade back. But, I mean,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: they're doing it right now. They do it every year
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: for baseball. They've been doing it for gymnastics. They've been
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: doing it for women's basketball. So... They're paying so much
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: dead money on other coaches that I think that had
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: to do. I think this was just the icing on
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the cake with LSU and maybe the SEC. Yeah, you're correct.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: But I'm a big believer. One play doesn't do the
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: outcome of the game. Now this one actually does, but
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: how about Western Michigan? How about scoring a touchdown instead
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: of kicking all those field goals? How about doing that?
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: So yes, One play did kind of screw them, but
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I'm a big trend guy in anything in life. One
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: incident starts the trend. Well, if you would have scored
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: a touchdown and not kicked a field goal, it would
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: have been a totally different trend. We're not even talking
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: about this subject because Western Michigan would have won. So, yes,
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Michigan won the extra second. But didn't the conference last
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: year have mics on all the refs and they were
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: talking to the replay? I can't remember what conference that was. Yeah,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: it is, but it's funny. What if we just only
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: had a Power 5 schedule? This would have never happened. But, yeah,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: we would have big upsets. We love to see these
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: types of close games and upsets and stuff. I mean,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Pac-12 is a Power 5 team,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: but we would have missed that great matchup of Boise
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: State and Oregon if it was only Power 5 schedule.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: We would have missed that, so. I hope that never
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: comes to it because I think a lot of these
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Mac schools, WAC schools, Mountain West schools can put some
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: pressure on some of these power five teams. Yeah, they
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: had a really good week out there. A lot of
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: people who bet over his income in USC. Everyone would
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: pound that one over. It was a 39-0. Really, Fresno
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: State couldn't score one. So, yeah, the public didn't do well,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: even at the last game. Everyone had Ole Miss, and
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: then Louisville hit step back to recover and only loses
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: by three. So, LSU was very interesting. Money came in
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: on Clemson. I talked about hate money and all that,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: but then– Purple and gold money came in really, really
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: late on Saturday. I think they were probably waiting to
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: see if nine and a half, like I was hoping.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I thought if it went to nine and a half,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: I was going to jump all over LSU. Clemson's garbage.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: It never went there. Yeah, they do get weird. This
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: one moved already a point open up at six and
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: a half. Now five and a half. I'm going to
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: wait to see if it does continue to move lean
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: towards the under. I think Missouri want to maybe slow
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: this game down, run the ball, just get out of
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: a Friday game before it gets weird. So I'm leaning
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: towards the under. I don't like that 50 and a half.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I thought I was hoping to get maybe 51 or 52.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I love when we have these big NIL players get
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: all this bag and then just don't perform. I mean,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of universities are going to start
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: looking at if he has another bad game against one
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: of the top defenses in college football in Oklahoma. I
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: understand the money that's coming in, but not that much
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: big money because this number opened up at five and
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: a half and it's still at five. Five and a half.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: So it's not like everyone jumped all over the Sooners
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: on this one. It's defense and defense only. Underwood's just
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: a big flop. And a lot of schools are going
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: to use this as an example that, hey, sometimes money
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: doesn't pay off. Oklahoma State won't play better. They have
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: a whole new coaching staff, whole new players out there,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: a lot of transfers in this program. And I'm tired
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: of people bagging on Oregon all day. Boise State is
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: a playoff team. Boise State won the Mountain West last year.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Boise State is favored to win the Pac-12. It's not
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: like There's some scrub team. It's not like they're Colorado
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: State or Fresno State or Wyoming. This is Boise. Boise
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: has been there before. I like Oregon in this spot.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not sold with Oklahoma State. It's going to be
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: a very, very long season for them. I lean towards
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: A & M because Arizona State has a lot of
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: new faces and key positions in this one. It's not
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: the same ASU team we saw last year, but I
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: can't lay this number with A & M. A &
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: M does not deserve my money to lay a 14
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: and a half. Not a 14, not a 13 and
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: a half, but a two touchdown and a half. I
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: want nothing to do with A & M. No, I
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: think Alabama's defense. I thought they played really well. I
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: thought the offensive line held well, even though you said it,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: the quarterback led the team in rushing. But I think
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the offensive line will give him some protection. I like
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Alabama in this one. They've always had good games in Lexington.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Let's face it, Lexington's only known for one thing, bourbon
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: and horse racing. Eh, not lately. Yeah, this total has
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: been dropping, opened up at 51. So I think defense
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: is going to be the key here. And it's defense
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: of BYU, not defense of Arizona. Here's another one. I
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: love BYU, but that evil half a point on week
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: two or week three. I forgot week zero week three.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: I just can't pull the trigger. If this was maybe
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: week five, week six and BYU has been cruising, I
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: would maybe take that seven and a half. But I
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: want to sit back and see if that number comes off.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: I think BYU wins this game. Maybe next year's future bet. Yeah,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: this year. Save your money. Yeah, that's why I'm kind
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: of staying away from this game, because if you're Mississippi State,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: let's win one before the league play goes. But Minnesota
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: is thinking the same thing. Hey, let's win one before
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: we start playing conference play. That's a coin flip. I
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: lean towards the home team on this one, but I'm
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: just going to stay away. I do like the under.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: I think Minnesota is going to want to run the
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: ball and make the clock tick away. Yeah, maybe Georgia
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Tech needs to go back to the I formation because
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I was not sold with them on Colorado. So I
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: like what I saw in Tennessee. I'm leaning towards Tennessee. Yeah. No,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to see a totally opposite. That's
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: why this total opened up at 47.5. Now you called
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: it 49, 49.5. Folks are telling me that we could
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: see a 50 on this total. Because why? It's an
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: evening game. So what do people like to bet on
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: the evening game? Favorite it over, favorite it over, favorite
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: it over. So I can see a 50. And I
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: think we see a higher scoring game. This one screams
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: like a 27, 25 type of game. I don't know
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: who wins this one. I'm actually probably rooting for... Ohio State,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: just because I love to see a Big Ten school
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: beat an SEC team, but I can see Manning having
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: a big game and say, hey, you know what? Last
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: year was a fluke. I think Utah just scored against
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Idaho State while we're talking right now. They looked impressive.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: They look like, yes, we have a new head coach.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: But don't forget, our new head coach was our defensive coordinator.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: So it's not like a lot of new things are happening.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: This Utah team can be very, very scary. As long
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: as their quarterback can stay healthy. Every year, Utah can
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: be up there. And what happens? Their quarterback gets hurt.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: So they just need their quarterback to stay healthy. I
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: think it's going to be an under type game. I
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: hate picking a side on this game because I remember
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: watching the Brazil game and everyone was slipping, broken ankles.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: The field was a mess. I don't know what I'm
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: going to see in this field in Australia. Is this
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: game tomorrow? Is this game on Friday? Is it set?
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what time this game is actually
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: being set on. So, This game reminds me of a
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: dead under type of game. Maybe both teams just, you know,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: run the ball, get, get out and not get hurt
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: type of game. This game reminds me of a week
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: preseason week for type of game. Ugly. You're not missing
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: anything because I think Baltimore is overrated this year. I
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: got the Bengals. I got the Bengals to win the division.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: I think Pittsburgh this week, I think they get the
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: W against Atlanta and Tua at quarterback. I think they
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: can be a surprising team, but I'm not sold on Baltimore.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, if he really, really wanted to stay there,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: he's his own agent. If he really wanted to say
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: that he would have signed a contract by now or
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: something or do something, I don't. And then you got
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: King Henry. Last time I checked, you get older when
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: you wake up, not younger. So he's an older back.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not sold on Baltimore. I like the Colts. No,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: here's another. I'm not. I am Buffalo. Their Super Bowl
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: aspirations are done. I'm sorry, Mafia, Bill's Mafia, but they're done.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, you had you had last year. You didn't
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: have Patrick Mahomes. That was your year. And you sorry,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: my friends, you shit the bed. So, no, I think
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: they're done is what you have a new stadium. OK,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: good luck in a new stadium. You're not going anywhere.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: I think they can. They short a lot of new
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: faces on offense. They're missing their one-two punch in the
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: backfield with the trade that happened over the summer. I
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: think the Saints can keep it close. I have the
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Lions winning by four, like a 24-20 type of game.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: They do, as long as they stay healthy. I think
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: if Burrow can stay healthy, they win the division. Now,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: if it's like last year and the year before where
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: he can't stay healthy, then I think it's wide open
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh and Baltimore. But if they're healthy, I think
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: their defense is going to be, I'm not saying much improved.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: I think a little improved. Then I think they can
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: stick around. I kind of like Cincinnati. I want to
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: see Tampa. Yes, their offense has some weapons. Now Baker...
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: I got his contract, but I really wanted to see
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: a chip Baker. I wanted to see a chip on
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: his shoulder play. Now he's got his bag. So how
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: is he going to play now? I was really hoping
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: he didn't get that contract. I thought he'd be a
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: really good quarterback this year, showing something he had improved.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe Lane Kiffin should call him and see if he
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: has any eligibility. But, yeah, I agree. I'm a little
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: bit shocked that he's third string. But at the same time,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: you know who I have winning the division? Tennessee North.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: I got the Vikings winning it. I think Kyler Murray
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: is the Sam Donald. Well, a healthier hip than Sam
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Donald if you're watching the game right now. I like
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, and I like the Vikings in the spot.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not sold on Green Bay. Both teams have massive
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: question marks. Philly has question marks if they lose all
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: of a sudden. do they fire their head coach? I mean,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: they didn't really do anything on their offensive side of
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: the ball. Washington, they didn't do anything on the defensive
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: side of the ball. So it is huge question marks.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: I like the Eagles. They're at home. You're laying a
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: soft number. Shop around. Four and a half are out there.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: So make sure you get a better number than five
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: and a half. But I like the Eagles at this spot.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: You should be very serious. They win a division. They
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: have one of the best offenses. I love them this
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: week on the road against the Giants. Every time I
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: blink my eye, the Giants quarterback or running back is
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: in a blue tent. So they can't stay healthy. I
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: like Dallas. I think they win a division. I'm not
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: sold on giving them the Super Bowl. I think they
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: have a very good shot. I'm getting there. I have
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: them just winning the division. I think that's a good
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: shot just in general. But if they're going to make
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: some noise, this is it. And I think they're going
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: to make a big trade this season to improve that defense. Raiders.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Everyone knows I do a show called Coaching Company with
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Jonathan Coachman. He used to work for WWE, SportsCenter, and
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: all that. He's a huge Kansas City fan. And I
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: have to do the Monday Night Grind. We do a
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: show right before Monday Night Football kicks off. And so
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: I'm going to have to hear him all show long
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: that the KC's back. Patrick Mahomes is back. No, he's not.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: They're old. I mean... I don't like anything that they
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: did offseason. They did nothing, especially on that D side.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Bo Nix is healthy. Denver Broncos defense is really, really good.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey just got married to one of the richest
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: white ladies you'll ever see and hear. What is his
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: motivation going to be like? I don't care if he's like, oh,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: it's my last year. I want to go and I'm
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: on top. You're already on top. You married Taylor Swift.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: It doesn't matter what you do in football. He can
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: be the quarterback throw for 300 yards, catch for 200 yards,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: and rush for two touchdowns, and he still won't be
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: more famous than his wife. You can find me on
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: X at VSI.Sports. You can find me on Instagram at
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Rafael Esparza, and you can find me on your show tomorrow.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Take it easy.