Latest / The Mike Blitz Show / THE OFFSEASON, PART I: 16 over/under win totals from the P4 conferences

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THE OFFSEASON, PART I: 16 over/under win totals from the P4 conferences · The Mike Blitz Show

0:15
SPEAKER_04: How do you want to go?
0:22
SPEAKER_04: How do you want to go?
0:30
SPEAKER_02: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to welcome back to the Mike Blitz coming back for year three, year four, I'm not even sure.
0:37
SPEAKER_02: I'm your host, Mike Wade, my co-host over there in South Richmond, Mike White.
0:40
SPEAKER_02: What's up, dude?
0:41
SPEAKER_02: Good to see you.
0:43
SPEAKER_02: How you feeling, my man?
0:44
SPEAKER_02: I'm good, man.
0:45
SPEAKER_02: We are within a week from the first college football game worth our time to watch.
0:50
SPEAKER_02: We are two weeks away from Tennessee's first game.
0:53
SPEAKER_02: I think 14 from LSU's.
0:54
SPEAKER_02: So, like, we're, I mean, we're we're getting there.
0:56
SPEAKER_02: We're we're knocking on the doorstep here.
0:58
SPEAKER_01: Summer is coming to an end.
1:00
SPEAKER_01: The Paris Olympics are behind us.
1:02
SPEAKER_01: Thank God.
1:03
SPEAKER_01: It's time to move on.
1:05
SPEAKER_02: It is time to move on.
1:06
SPEAKER_02: Uh, now we've got 12-year-olds on the television screen playing baseball.
1:09
SPEAKER_02: That's kind of a good annual reminder every year like we're gonna be watching college football soon because there's 12-year-olds at Williamsport playing baseball.
1:16
SPEAKER_01: You do tell us about it every year.
1:17
SPEAKER_02: It's kind of my thing.
1:18
SPEAKER_02: It's kind of my thing.
1:19
SPEAKER_02: If you come here before you know that.
1:20
SPEAKER_02: Um, it's also my kids are starting school tomorrow.
1:22
SPEAKER_02: Uh, it's their first day back in school.
1:24
SPEAKER_02: So, like, you know, obviously the whole transition, we brought all the school supplies, did all the things.
1:28
SPEAKER_02: Um, I can't wait to have them in my house.
1:30
SPEAKER_01: It's so fun.
1:30
SPEAKER_01: Like, I don't know why it's fun as a kid to go get number two pencils, but it's kind of a fun thing.
1:36
SPEAKER_02: It it I didn't hate it.
1:37
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we went to Staples, we loaded up, we got um tissue boxes, band-aids, uh crayons, um, a plethora of uh glue sticks.
1:45
SPEAKER_02: Um, so I mean that's vanilla envelopes, um, got them haircuts, got them new shoes, got them, you know, all the things, you know.
1:52
SPEAKER_02: Wife's I'm sure is gonna take a photograph of them like at the bus stop, like you know, classic stuff.
1:57
SPEAKER_02: So we are in full go-to-school tomorrow mode, which is which is great because summer is over.
2:03
SPEAKER_02: I'm ready for summer to be over.
2:04
SPEAKER_02: I'm ready to start the fall.
2:05
SPEAKER_01: I'm ready for the fall.
2:07
SPEAKER_01: We had a nice, cool week, cooler weekend, and my uh appetite has been wet.
2:13
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
2:14
SPEAKER_02: Have you uh any big major life events updates since the last time we last time we did spot was December of last year?
2:20
SPEAKER_02: So it's been a minute, it's been nine months.
2:21
SPEAKER_02: Uh, anything, anything for the good of the order, pass on?
2:25
SPEAKER_01: Um, well, in in tradition with you and I doing this show, I'll go ahead and get it out of the way.
2:33
SPEAKER_01: No one's pregnant, no one is having a baby.
2:35
SPEAKER_01: There are there's been no babies have been born since since then.
2:39
SPEAKER_01: So I think we're good.
2:40
SPEAKER_01: I think we're clear on that too.
2:41
SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna also go ahead and make an update as well.
2:43
SPEAKER_02: There's also been no new additions into my family as well.
2:46
SPEAKER_02: So I think on life it does, I think life we are now at that point of our lives where like it's it's weird if it doesn't look the same as last year.
2:53
SPEAKER_02: Like, we are now creatures of habit, we're getting to that age, so um, it's getting to that point.
2:58
SPEAKER_02: But anyway, uh football, it's time for uh before we do that.
3:01
SPEAKER_02: Obviously, we look so we record a lot of podcasts in the morning, so we didn't do this, but it is uh 9.04 on Sunday evening on uh June 19th.
3:09
SPEAKER_02: So you and I are having a beer.
3:10
SPEAKER_02: Um, bringing back old classic uh Mike Blitz stuff.
3:13
SPEAKER_02: What you dranking?
3:14
SPEAKER_02: Uh you want to go first?
3:15
SPEAKER_02: What do you what you got in your hand?
3:17
SPEAKER_01: I have a tropical beer hug, which is a nice little Goose Island sort of rebrand, and I'm drinking it out of uh Star Wars Ewok koozie.
3:26
SPEAKER_02: I appreciate uh a good Ewok koozie that makes things oh that's sure enough.
3:30
SPEAKER_02: That is an Ewok.
3:31
SPEAKER_02: You can oh it's got ears, it's got furry ears.
3:33
SPEAKER_02: Look at that.
3:34
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's pretty fun.
3:35
SPEAKER_02: That's not bad.
3:36
SPEAKER_02: That's not bad.
3:37
SPEAKER_02: I am drinking a Ragna IPA, Citro Mosaic, Nelson, Savillon, and Rakao hops from Vasin or Vassin here in Richmond.
3:45
SPEAKER_02: Rakao Rakao hops, R-A-K-A-U.
3:49
SPEAKER_02: Is that a hop?
3:49
SPEAKER_02: It's in a it's on the line next to all these other hops.
3:51
SPEAKER_02: I'm not really sure.
3:52
SPEAKER_02: I think it's another it sounds like a sound effect.
3:54
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it also might be that.
3:56
SPEAKER_02: Um, it's not entirely clear, but this is Ragna IPA.
3:59
SPEAKER_02: Um, Patreon member Mark Fransom, next door neighbor, he brought these over for me just the other day.
4:03
SPEAKER_02: Um, Mike Blitz van uh thank you, Mark.
4:06
SPEAKER_02: Shout out.
4:06
SPEAKER_02: Um, and this is delicious.
4:08
SPEAKER_02: So it's good to be having a beer with you um talking about football because we're gonna do so much of that this year.
4:14
SPEAKER_02: Um, so that's that rules.
4:15
SPEAKER_02: Uh, quick little uh housekeeping note.
4:17
SPEAKER_02: So Mike and I are gonna be doing an off-season series.
4:20
SPEAKER_02: This is part one tonight of three parts.
4:23
SPEAKER_02: Tonight we are going to talk about betting lines.
4:25
SPEAKER_02: Mike and I are going to each pick um, but we'll talk about it.
4:28
SPEAKER_02: We're gonna do betting lines tonight.
4:29
SPEAKER_02: Part two is gonna be off-season storylines, and then part three is gonna be bold predictions.
4:33
SPEAKER_02: So we'll have a three-part kind of primer get you ready for the college football season, three different episodes, focusing on three different things off season storylines, gambling, and uh bold predictions.
4:43
SPEAKER_02: Uh so tonight is gonna be that.
4:46
SPEAKER_02: Um, with that said, uh, let's go ahead and talk a little bit more about what we're doing tonight.
4:49
SPEAKER_02: So tonight, Mike and I are going, we've each preemptively we have each uh looked at all of the lines according to FanDuel, as of I don't know, I'm not sure when you looked.
4:57
SPEAKER_02: I looked like yesterday, so they might have adjusted a little bit based on whenever you've heard this, but you know, as close as we can.
5:02
SPEAKER_02: Mike and I are each gonna pick an over and an under from each of the power four conferences, no long power five.
5:07
SPEAKER_02: We're we are now in a power four world and we're just kind of living in it.
5:10
SPEAKER_02: Um, and we're gonna talk about why we like those teams.
5:12
SPEAKER_02: So we're gonna talk about as many as 16 teams tonight.
5:15
SPEAKER_02: Although we didn't cross notes.
5:17
SPEAKER_02: How many how many picks do you think we made that were the same without blind taste test here?
5:21
SPEAKER_02: How many do you think we that were the same?
5:24
SPEAKER_01: Um, I guess it depends on if you picked your picks based on how interesting the thought was or the conversation, or if you would actually put your money down on that bet, and if that's like the juiciest bet that you see.
5:37
SPEAKER_02: That's a great question because I'll tell you which I had no formula and I kind of did a little bit of both.
5:41
SPEAKER_02: There's one or two where I was like, um, I really like that bet, but I'm not sure about it.
5:44
SPEAKER_02: That one feels like free money, that one's just interesting because that seems gonna be weird.
5:48
SPEAKER_02: So, like, I really I started some some of the uh conferences one way, some of the picks the other way.
5:54
SPEAKER_02: So I had no methodology.
5:56
SPEAKER_02: I bet you I'm setting the overunder at one and a half.
5:58
SPEAKER_02: Were you and I are gonna have one and a half of the same picks, I'll take the over.
6:01
SPEAKER_01: Oh, I'd say we at least have two.
6:03
SPEAKER_01: We still my thought process was I tried to be as true to the game as possible by saying, like, you know, what what actually sticks out to me is something that I could get behind, you know.
6:13
SPEAKER_01: And a lot of these, you know, the obviously the the margin is pretty pretty thin.
6:17
SPEAKER_01: Um, but if you can if you can look at a team and say, okay, maybe I don't know that team so well, but if I know their schedule pretty well and and then and you feel like you've got two games, you know, I think that's the number.
6:31
SPEAKER_01: If you're looking for like two, if there's two games that that stick out to you, then you can maybe make a good good good good guess on that.
6:39
SPEAKER_02: All right.
6:40
SPEAKER_02: I like that.
6:40
SPEAKER_02: So what we'll do what we'll do is um uh we'll we'll just we'll kind of go one at a time, explain why we like it, and kind of break break it down from there.
6:48
SPEAKER_02: Um what we'll do, we'll also Mike and I will bet imaginary$100 on each of these things.
6:52
SPEAKER_02: So we'll have the at the end of the season, we'll have to compare your eight bets against my eight bets and we'll see who came out ahead.
6:58
SPEAKER_02: We'll talk about that in December.
6:59
SPEAKER_02: That'll be a fun way to unpack all of our good and bad takes, which we're gonna, which tonight we you and I are gonna have two or three brilliant picks tonight, or we're gonna have one or two picks that are just gonna be just abysmal.
7:11
SPEAKER_02: You think that's all?
7:12
SPEAKER_02: I hope so.
7:13
SPEAKER_02: I hope that's all.
7:13
SPEAKER_02: I hope that's all.
7:14
SPEAKER_02: So without further ado, uh let's go ahead and jump into that.
7:19
SPEAKER_04: All I do is win, win, win, no matter what.
7:22
SPEAKER_02: So we're gonna start with the uh ACC conference.
7:24
SPEAKER_02: First off, I'm gonna go ahead and start with my first under.
7:26
SPEAKER_02: I got Florida State under nine and a half wins.
7:29
SPEAKER_02: Uh the odds are minus 128.
7:32
SPEAKER_02: Uh, this was pretty easy for me, actually.
7:34
SPEAKER_02: Florida State, after getting absolutely screwed last year, the Jordan Travis saga should have hit the playoffs.
7:39
SPEAKER_02: They had all kinds of opt-outs, all kinds of people uh head off to the pros.
7:43
SPEAKER_02: Um, couldn't Jordan Travis.
7:45
SPEAKER_02: They are worse at every single position.
7:49
SPEAKER_02: Um, it's it's really just as simple as that when it comes down to me.
7:52
SPEAKER_02: Uh DJ U, DJ Ugale Ugale, DJ Ugala Ugalay, who we've talked a lot about.
7:56
SPEAKER_02: Uh yeah, Ugale.
7:57
SPEAKER_02: Thank you very much.
7:57
SPEAKER_02: Uh formerly with Clemson, formerly Oregon State.
8:00
SPEAKER_02: He is now in his third school.
8:01
SPEAKER_02: Generally speaking, as a rule of thumb, I don't like schools, I don't like quarterbacks going to their third school.
8:06
SPEAKER_02: Um, they've got a lot of losable games.
8:08
SPEAKER_02: Memphis is one of the best group uh uh group G4 teams out there at SMU is gonna be tough.
8:14
SPEAKER_02: Preston Stone, Clemson at Miami, at Notre Dame versus Florida.
8:18
SPEAKER_02: And who knows what Florida's gonna look like at the end of the season?
8:20
SPEAKER_02: The worst schedule maybe in the history of college football.
8:22
SPEAKER_02: I just I got three losses in there, so I'm I'm hitting the under on Florida State.
8:28
SPEAKER_01: I like that.
8:28
SPEAKER_01: I like that.
8:29
SPEAKER_01: Um, I I I was tempted to go Florida State as well, but I was kind of thinking not in the same vein, but um uh in the same state at least.
8:39
SPEAKER_01: I went with Miami as my under.
8:42
SPEAKER_01: Um they they're they're nine and a half, uh, but they have a very I guess it's a pretty tough schedule.
8:49
SPEAKER_01: Uh when you look across the board.
8:51
SPEAKER_01: Uh, I think that you know, I think my uh the Florida game is kind of my swing game here because it's the start of the season, it's the first game, nobody knows what to expect out of out of Florida, and it's in the swamp.
9:05
SPEAKER_01: And so if they lose that game to Florida, I think that sets you up for a nice, nice under here for Miami.
9:12
SPEAKER_01: I think they're still gonna obviously have a really good season.
9:14
SPEAKER_01: Um, the rest of their games uh are very, very winnable that Florida State game.
9:20
SPEAKER_01: I think between our if we're betting one-on-one, that Florida State Miami game looms large October 26th.
9:28
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you know, I see him.
9:29
SPEAKER_02: I'm seeing at Louis at Louisville, Louisville might be the third best team there.
9:32
SPEAKER_02: Um, and then uh at Syracuse in the or in the what's what they call it, the the carrier dome.
9:37
SPEAKER_02: That's a tough place to play, but Syracuse is a rebuild, the new Fran Brown, uh Will Howard Trinch quarterback up there.
9:42
SPEAKER_02: Uh obviously, our beloved Hokies, um, they they're they they have them as well.
9:45
SPEAKER_02: And we've we've we're pretty, I think you and I have talked a little bit, but I think we're pretty bullish on the hook.
9:49
SPEAKER_01: We're high on the hookies, yeah.
9:50
SPEAKER_02: High on the hookies.
9:51
SPEAKER_02: This is the best Miami roster that Myer Christoph has had that any Miami coach has had in a long time.
9:56
SPEAKER_01: I know.
9:56
SPEAKER_02: But how much do we love Meyer Christopher and his death?
10:00
SPEAKER_01: This is the prove it year for them.
10:02
SPEAKER_02: This is the same guy that lost Georgia Tech.
10:04
SPEAKER_02: So this is if those of you remember, this is the game where they had the game, all they had to do was squat on the ball and win the game, which is arguably from a coaching standpoint, probably the worst loss in D1 football history, like all time bad.
10:17
SPEAKER_02: And he's had a couple blunders like that.
10:19
SPEAKER_02: It's not that's happened, that's happened twice to him.
10:21
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, just him.
10:23
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so I mean, in terms of like game day coach, I hate the guy.
10:27
SPEAKER_02: Um, he's he's awful, which makes me I don't I don't hate this bet at all for you.
10:30
SPEAKER_02: I don't know who's I don't know who's gonna come on top of the ACC.
10:33
SPEAKER_02: I guess by default, you and I are picking Clemson, but we can talk more about their flaws later.
10:37
SPEAKER_02: But I love the uh Miami under as well.
10:40
SPEAKER_02: Um, I just uh it's a there's too many.
10:42
SPEAKER_02: I have no faith in Crystal Ball.
10:44
SPEAKER_02: I love Cam Ward, I think he's a baller.
10:46
SPEAKER_02: Uh I think their defense is stacked.
10:48
SPEAKER_02: I think they've got guy, I think Rostrepo, the receiver, the slot back, is super is super uh versatile, good good player.
10:54
SPEAKER_02: But I just I mean Crystal Ball's got a couple of these and he's gonna blow.
10:58
SPEAKER_02: So yeah, let's go ahead and uh pound that under.
11:01
SPEAKER_02: I like that.
11:01
SPEAKER_02: All right, gimme give me your over.
11:03
SPEAKER_02: Over SMU over eight and a half.
11:06
SPEAKER_02: This one's actually plus money, or as it was as of yesterday, plus one oh four.
11:10
SPEAKER_02: Here's what you don't know about SMU.
11:12
SPEAKER_02: SMU has moved up to the ACC, they pretty much sold their soul to get there.
11:16
SPEAKER_02: They're taking no money for seven years, the boosters are backing them.
11:20
SPEAKER_02: They are based in the Dallas Fort Worth area, long historic program, pony XS.
11:24
SPEAKER_02: Go look it up, ESPN 30 for 30, one of the best ever.
11:27
SPEAKER_02: Um, they are finally back in the Power Four conference, and they are so excited to be there.
11:31
SPEAKER_02: And they've got some things going for them.
11:33
SPEAKER_02: Rhett Lashley, awesome coach.
11:35
SPEAKER_02: Preston Stone might actually be the best quarterback in the ACC in year one.
11:40
SPEAKER_02: I think Ken Ward's probably that guy.
11:41
SPEAKER_02: Kyron Jones could be, but Preston Stone is right there.
11:45
SPEAKER_02: He's really good.
11:45
SPEAKER_02: They're bringing nine guys back on offense, which I really like.
11:49
SPEAKER_02: You look at their schedule, home versus Florida State is probably their only.
11:54
SPEAKER_02: I, you know, I'm I'm gonna I'll call that a loss.
11:56
SPEAKER_02: We'll we'll call that a loss.
11:57
SPEAKER_02: But you look at the rest of the way, pencil that in pencil that one in.
12:00
SPEAKER_02: Look at the hardest game the rest of the way at Louisville, and then what am I looking?
12:04
SPEAKER_02: I've got I got TCU rebuild, BYU, terrible.
12:07
SPEAKER_02: Um, I don't even know who HCU is, HCU huskies.
12:10
SPEAKER_02: Can you tell me who that is?
12:11
SPEAKER_02: I'm not even sure.
12:12
SPEAKER_02: Um, Stanford, Duke are all major rebuilds.
12:14
SPEAKER_02: Pitts a shell of who they were.
12:16
SPEAKER_02: Boston College, UVA, Cal.
12:18
SPEAKER_02: Even if they lose those two losable games, that's 10.
12:21
SPEAKER_02: They still have so all I'm saying is over eight and a half.
12:24
SPEAKER_02: They got to get to nine for that to bank.
12:27
SPEAKER_02: This is actually one of my favorite guys we're gonna talk about.
12:28
SPEAKER_02: Love SMU.
12:30
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I love you.
12:30
SPEAKER_01: I love you, obviously, but I love I love you.
12:34
SPEAKER_01: I love this pick.
12:35
SPEAKER_01: SMU is kind of a dark horse to make a run for the conference, and no one's really talking about them a whole lot because they're they're new, obviously.
12:43
SPEAKER_01: Um, that's a great pick.
12:46
SPEAKER_01: I actually went with Syracuse for this, okay, because if you look at their schedule, and this is why I love this game, it is just schedule.
12:55
SPEAKER_01: Look at the schedule every time.
12:56
SPEAKER_01: Look at the schedule.
12:57
SPEAKER_01: Who do they got?
12:58
SPEAKER_01: Um big theme tonight.
12:59
SPEAKER_01: Look at schedule.
13:00
SPEAKER_01: They've kind of got like seven built-in gimme's, and so they just kind of win one.
13:06
SPEAKER_01: Just give me one swing game.
13:07
SPEAKER_01: Give me one swing game.
13:09
SPEAKER_02: What's the line you said was I miss it over eight?
13:11
SPEAKER_01: Seven and a half, seven and a half, and they've got they've got they've got top 20 uh returning production on the roster.
13:18
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
13:18
SPEAKER_01: So they've got guys who have been there, they've they've got some experience, and they've got a lot of very winnable games on the roster on the on the schedule.
13:26
SPEAKER_01: So it's really just like win a swing game, win one of those, you know, toss-ups, and and and then, and then you hit.
13:33
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you're not losing to Holy Cross, you're not using this losing to Stanford, Georgia Tech, Ohio.
13:39
SPEAKER_02: UNLV is all UNEM LV's approach is is atrocious.
13:43
SPEAKER_02: I I think Cal is pretty bad.
13:46
SPEAKER_01: Um, I'm not sure if Pittsburgh not losing to BC, not losing a Utah.
13:50
SPEAKER_02: Like Jerry Hill.
13:51
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, good all respect to the fighting Rob Reeds, but I just don't I don't see it.
13:55
SPEAKER_02: No, I think seven and a half wins for Syracuse in year one.
13:59
SPEAKER_02: Also keep in mind their starting quarterback is Kyle McCord.
14:02
SPEAKER_02: That's the guy who took Ohio State to an 11-1 record.
14:05
SPEAKER_02: I get that he lost to Michigan.
14:06
SPEAKER_02: I get that he gets a lot of blame for that, but like he was a former five-star, high four-star.
14:12
SPEAKER_02: He is a high-ceiling guy who's getting a fresh start to prove himself.
14:16
SPEAKER_02: I think he got unceremoniously shown out of town by the Ohio State Powers to be.
14:20
SPEAKER_02: I'm I'm I'm maybe a little chip, a little chip on his shoulder, a little motivation, a little motivation to make Syracuse a master.
14:26
SPEAKER_02: So let's let's give Syracuse a little love.
14:28
SPEAKER_02: They also uh um LSU defensive back to his chestnut transferred back there.
14:32
SPEAKER_02: He played really well.
14:33
SPEAKER_02: That LSU career was a little less ideal, but they've got a bunch, they've plugged a bunch of holes.
14:37
SPEAKER_02: And Fran Brown, who I think is a defensive backs coach from Georgia, is their head coach right now.
14:42
SPEAKER_02: Um, he knows what he's doing.
14:43
SPEAKER_02: So I feel good about uh Syracuse.
14:46
SPEAKER_02: Um all right, so that's the ACC, right?
14:48
SPEAKER_02: I think we've we've done that.
14:49
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
14:49
SPEAKER_02: All right, slide on into the Big Ten.
14:51
SPEAKER_02: Let's slide on over to the Big Ten.
14:53
SPEAKER_02: My first Big Ten pick.
14:55
SPEAKER_02: Um, this is a little bit of a homework pick.
14:57
SPEAKER_02: I don't care.
14:58
SPEAKER_02: I'm gonna do it anyway.
14:59
SPEAKER_02: Uh, I got USC going under seven and a half wins.
15:04
SPEAKER_02: Uh minus the uh the the odds are minus 115 under seven and a half wins.
15:09
SPEAKER_02: Um, so a couple things.
15:10
SPEAKER_02: Obviously, they're opening up with LSU in 14 days from right now.
15:14
SPEAKER_02: I'm calling that a lot of swing, big swing game.
15:17
SPEAKER_02: Big huge, probably the big swing game because there's a world where I mean, obviously, I'm obviously a bit biased.
15:22
SPEAKER_02: Anybody who listens know this, there's a world where LSU vaporizes them.
15:26
SPEAKER_02: Their defense is so bad.
15:27
SPEAKER_02: We run the ball down the field on them constantly, it can't stop anything.
15:30
SPEAKER_02: The wheels could fall off the bus early.
15:33
SPEAKER_02: And LSU has the O-line to do that.
15:34
SPEAKER_02: Exactly.
15:35
SPEAKER_02: LSU is one of the top three balls of lines in the country, it's one of the best units, one of the best units.
15:39
SPEAKER_02: D line for URC.
15:40
SPEAKER_02: Yes, little light.
15:41
SPEAKER_02: Not so much.
15:42
SPEAKER_02: I don't think anything about defense.
15:43
SPEAKER_02: Now they did hire uh uh Danton Lynn, who's the uh the defensive coordinator from US UCLA, so they have some better coaching upgrades.
15:52
SPEAKER_02: But something does that mean something?
15:54
SPEAKER_02: I has Lincoln Riley was was was any has he ever had a defense at this level that's ever been any good?
16:02
SPEAKER_02: I just I'm I'm not seeing it.
16:05
SPEAKER_02: I've I'm their their receivers are lights out.
16:07
SPEAKER_02: Malachi Nelson is an excellent quarterback.
16:09
SPEAKER_02: I'm not doubting they're gonna score.
16:11
SPEAKER_02: I just have seen nothing in Lincoln Riley's whole tenure uh as a USC, as a college core coach, to make him think that his defense is gonna be ready.
16:19
SPEAKER_02: And I think it's gonna be physical ball.
16:20
SPEAKER_02: I mean, so anyway, seven and a half.
16:23
SPEAKER_02: You um here's here's the losses that I see uh right now.
16:26
SPEAKER_02: LSU at Michigan, Penn State, um, Notre Dame, that's four right there.
16:33
SPEAKER_02: And then they got a bunch of toughies that could be tough.
16:36
SPEAKER_02: Ruckers, which I'm actually gonna talk about in a minute, at Maryland, Wisconsin, playing Wisconsin is a physical.
16:41
SPEAKER_02: Please talk about Rutgers.
16:42
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Nebraska, uh, Nebraska might be good.
16:45
SPEAKER_02: All they have to do drop all things to do is drop.
16:47
SPEAKER_01: Nebraska and Wisconsin are both complete question marks heading into the season.
16:51
SPEAKER_01: They could be complete wild cards.
16:52
SPEAKER_02: I mean, both of those teams are capable with the one totally agree.
16:56
SPEAKER_02: But the thing that the thing that Wisconsin, Maryland, Rutgers, and Nebraska all have in common, besides the fact they all wear red and white, which is kind of weird, they all play good defense, or they're all actually at least they're all expected to based on returning production coming back from next year.
17:08
SPEAKER_02: So, my point is I'm seeing a lot of teams that are going to play hard-nosed punch-in-your-mouth football.
17:14
SPEAKER_02: And I haven't seen USC do that since the Pete Carroll days.
17:16
SPEAKER_02: So, what am I banking on here?
17:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, I like the pick, I think it's a good one.
18:01
SPEAKER_01: Uh, I am going to go uh kicking off my side of things, I'm gonna start with Washington uh at six and a half games on the over.
18:11
SPEAKER_01: Yep, yep.
18:13
SPEAKER_01: And I I do this for a couple reasons.
18:16
SPEAKER_01: Uh, first off, I know that they lost a lot of their staff, obviously their head coach and a handful of really talented players, but they do have a lot of continuity uh because they've got uh a longtime staff member taking over, forget his name right now.
18:33
SPEAKER_01: Uh a lot of players have stayed, they still have a really solid team, and six and a half is all gonna be based on their backloaded schedule.
18:43
SPEAKER_01: They start off with Weaver State, Eastern Michigan, Washington State, Northwestern.
18:47
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you're gonna know who you've got, and then Rutgers uh mid-season, they should be probably undefeated.
18:54
SPEAKER_01: And then they've got then they've got the tough part of their schedule going uh Michigan, their hosting, going to Iowa, then Indiana, USC, Penn State, UCLA, Oregon.
19:06
SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, if this is again, this is a pretty razor-thin margin.
19:10
SPEAKER_01: I just kind of like the way this sets up for them.
19:12
SPEAKER_01: If they can get some confidence early, again, you know, I think having a a former, I think it was their DC.
19:19
SPEAKER_02: Uh we're talking about UW, right?
19:22
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
19:22
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
19:23
SPEAKER_02: Jed, it's Jedfish from Arizona.
19:25
SPEAKER_02: Ah, yes.
19:26
SPEAKER_02: Okay, Jed Fish from Arizona.
19:28
SPEAKER_02: So let me tell you why I why I like UW.
19:30
SPEAKER_02: So they are technically they are they're returning nobody um on their starting 22 from last team, but all of the guys they brought in, many of which started somewhere else.
19:41
SPEAKER_02: So they're they look on paper like they don't have a lot going for them.
19:43
SPEAKER_02: They actually do.
19:44
SPEAKER_02: Will Rogers, who's uh who's actually an excellent quarterback at Mississippi State, who had a really nice run.
19:49
SPEAKER_02: He just got the when they went to when um uh Mike Leach passed RIP, um, they shifted uh to our net, they played a more physical defense, he wasn't the right fit there anymore, it didn't work out.
19:58
SPEAKER_02: But before that, he threw for a bajillion yards in Mississippi State.
20:01
SPEAKER_02: He's a great fish fit for fish.
20:03
SPEAKER_02: I said great fish for Jed Fish.
20:05
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's been playing for like five or six years.
20:08
SPEAKER_02: He's really good.
20:09
SPEAKER_02: The thing I really like is Steve Belichick, uh uh the former Bill Belichick, I mean the former, former New England Patriots, uh son, defensive coordinator.
20:16
SPEAKER_02: If you go look at the Patriots, just kind of shift into the NFL topic really quickly.
20:20
SPEAKER_02: They played a lot of really good defense without a lot of talent.
20:23
SPEAKER_02: That guy's gonna go in there and he's gonna make their defense play pretty well.
20:27
SPEAKER_02: I like, I mean, I don't think what I read about UW this year was that this is gonna be a little bit of a rebuild.
20:33
SPEAKER_02: I think that's fair.
20:34
SPEAKER_02: They were in the national championship runner-up.
20:36
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it will be a rebuild.
20:36
SPEAKER_03: That's why the O'Connor's Oregon six and a half.
20:38
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they beat Oregon twice.
20:40
SPEAKER_02: I mean, they had an amazing run camp short against Michigan National Championship, but they were really, really solid up until that point.
20:46
SPEAKER_02: Um, but they're just a they're going to be a well-run team.
20:48
SPEAKER_02: I'm really bullish on Jed Fish, really bullish, bullish on Steve Belichick, on uh Will Rogers, the quarterback, um, and all those guys they brought from Arizona with them who weren't who were not stars at UW but were at Arizona, six and a half is uh too low.
21:02
SPEAKER_02: It's too low.
21:03
SPEAKER_02: And I could see I could see four wins right now that I would absolutely fence.
21:06
SPEAKER_02: The first three are absolutely gimme's UCLA is going to be terrible, and then the other eight, there's a couple ones that we just wanna know.
21:13
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so yeah, I mean it's gonna be completely do not get completely obliterated at the end of the season.
21:20
SPEAKER_01: If you can pull out a couple of those, you got to reprieve.
21:22
SPEAKER_01: I think what was it, Illinois, yeah, mixed in there somewhere.
21:26
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's at Indiana.
21:27
SPEAKER_02: I mean, UCLA is not good.
21:28
SPEAKER_02: I mean, Northwestern's going to be really bad.
21:31
SPEAKER_02: Is the for this one to hit, it's just gonna be win the ones you're supposed to, just win the ones weaver, eastern, northwestern, probably Indiana, UCLA for sure.
21:41
SPEAKER_01: You hit the well in that ruckers game.
21:42
SPEAKER_01: That's you're about to talk about them, right?
21:44
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so let's let's go ahead and shift gears.
21:46
SPEAKER_02: So that Ruckers game is no gimme.
21:48
SPEAKER_02: I'm actually bullish on ruckers.
21:49
SPEAKER_02: I got ruckers over six and a half.
21:51
SPEAKER_02: That's a plus one oh two on FanDuel, another plus money bet.
21:56
SPEAKER_02: I know the Tennessee fans don't feel this way, but Greg Ciano's actually a pretty darn good coach.
22:01
SPEAKER_02: Um, no, he's not.
22:03
SPEAKER_02: He's not, he's not.
22:05
SPEAKER_02: So for those of you who so a little context, uh, before uh Tennessee hired Josh Heifel, uh Greg, you you know better than I do.
22:11
SPEAKER_02: What happened with Greg Ciano in Tennessee, really quick?
22:13
SPEAKER_01: No, this was not before this was this was way back.
22:17
SPEAKER_01: Um he was penciled in by the previous AD, basically, to be brought on.
22:26
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
22:26
SPEAKER_01: Um the deal was like in flux, basically.
22:29
SPEAKER_01: It was like, okay, I think we're gonna hire this guy.
22:32
SPEAKER_01: And the Tennessee fans said, No, you're not, and spoke up very loudly on Twitter and social media.
22:39
SPEAKER_01: Everywhere else, um, largely leaning on his ties to the Penn State football scandal, um, because Shiano was on staff at the time and allegedly knew about what was going on.
22:52
SPEAKER_01: Um, but real talk, it was because he is a mediocre football coach with zero track record of winning.
23:00
SPEAKER_01: I mean, let's be real.
23:01
SPEAKER_01: Yes, we can hang our hat on our morals here, but what really happened was everyone looked at if he was like, you know, a two-time Super Bowl-winning coach with like three FEC championships and like two national championships under his belt, nobody, everyone would be like, ah, he probably didn't know.
23:17
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
23:17
SPEAKER_01: Um, I think no, we know how this works.
23:21
SPEAKER_01: Complete mediocre track record.
23:22
SPEAKER_02: We like to pretend Auburn is just like a you know, this case.
23:25
SPEAKER_02: I mean, they literally hired probably the scummiest person on the planet, but there's a lot of teams, I think, including yours and mine, that if we had the chance to hire the Bill Belichick of the next statement of coaches, we would forgive some things.
23:36
SPEAKER_02: So we can have a look at that.
23:37
SPEAKER_02: We can be clear-eyed about that.
23:38
SPEAKER_02: Anyway, back to Ruckers.
23:40
SPEAKER_02: Ruckers plus over six and a half, plus one oh two.
23:43
SPEAKER_02: Giano, at least for Ruckers level, is a good coach.
23:46
SPEAKER_02: And he's gotten Ruckers back to respectability.
23:49
SPEAKER_02: Uh, he had a nice run with them a long time ago, had the stint with the uh new with the um Tiffany Buccaneers, bounced around a little bit, back in Piscatoway, leading the Scarlet Knights as the head coach.
23:58
SPEAKER_02: He's got 11 seniors on defense, almost all of which are returning starters.
24:03
SPEAKER_02: So he's got a really got a ton of ton of seniors.
24:05
SPEAKER_02: He's got the vet offensive line, strong running game.
24:07
SPEAKER_02: Athan Kallack Manis, do you remember this name?
24:10
SPEAKER_02: The Greek rocket former.
24:12
SPEAKER_02: He was the minute he was a Minnesota quarterback that I was actually excited about going into the Minnesota UNC opener last year.
24:18
SPEAKER_02: He did not work out.
24:18
SPEAKER_02: He did not work out in Minnesota, rowing the boat under PJ Fleck.
24:22
SPEAKER_02: He's at Chiano.
24:23
SPEAKER_02: He's been around, he's done some things well.
24:25
SPEAKER_02: Again, for Rutgers, uh, he's a pretty good, he's a pretty good quarterback.
24:29
SPEAKER_02: So, and he's got again, he has a really senior offensive line, he's got great running backs, and he has a ton of defensive uh defensive starters and upperclassmen returning.
24:37
SPEAKER_02: Schedule, not that bad.
24:39
SPEAKER_02: Howard, Akron at Virginia Tech, which is gonna be at Virginia Tech's gonna be a tough game because Rutgers beat them last year and Virginia Tech's way better.
24:46
SPEAKER_02: UW, which we'll see, they're six six and a half, at Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA at USC, Minnesota, at Maryland, Illinois, Michigan State.
24:55
SPEAKER_02: In my mind, I got Illinois at Michigan State, Akron, Howard, UCLA, Minnesota.
25:03
SPEAKER_02: Those are six teams that they will absolutely be favored against for sure.
25:07
SPEAKER_02: Illinois does not scare me.
25:09
SPEAKER_02: At Maryland, does not scare me.
25:11
SPEAKER_02: I don't even think at USC even really scares me, though USC is probably a better team.
25:15
SPEAKER_02: Six and a half is not a big number.
25:16
SPEAKER_01: They're going, they're traveling.
25:17
SPEAKER_01: Think about this, dude.
25:18
SPEAKER_01: They're traveling from Rutgers, New York to USC to play a football game.
25:24
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I don't love that.
25:25
SPEAKER_01: And and USC is much more talented.
25:27
SPEAKER_01: And Rutgers is coached by Greg Shiano, who sucks.
25:31
SPEAKER_02: We'll see.
25:32
SPEAKER_02: Give me the over on Rutgers.
25:34
SPEAKER_02: Um what was the over under six and a half?
25:36
SPEAKER_02: Six and a half.
25:36
SPEAKER_02: Seven and five is all you need.
25:37
SPEAKER_02: So I'm under on USC and I'm over on Rutgers six and a half.
25:40
SPEAKER_01: No, this is one I really want to deep dive.
25:44
SPEAKER_01: Well, let's let me just look at this.
25:46
SPEAKER_02: One, two, uh you look at the Rutgers schedule right now.
25:49
SPEAKER_01: I mean, yeah, it's it's Nebraska and and Wisconsin.
25:52
SPEAKER_01: What do we get out of those teams?
25:53
SPEAKER_01: Because UCLA UCLA is bad, Minnesota.
25:56
SPEAKER_02: Bad.
25:56
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I know.
25:57
SPEAKER_02: Illinois, I think Illinois and Michigan State are bad too.
25:59
SPEAKER_01: Ruckers, yeah.
26:00
SPEAKER_01: Nebraska and and and Wisconsin are the two teams that could completely throw a wrench in this.
26:06
SPEAKER_01: If you even if you call that a lot of people, because Shiano's terrible.
26:10
SPEAKER_02: It's just not true.
26:12
SPEAKER_02: Call the Wisconsin-Nebraska split.
26:13
SPEAKER_02: So you get Howard, Akron, you split those two, UCLA four, Minnesota five, Illinois, Michigan State seven.
26:20
SPEAKER_02: You need one more.
26:21
SPEAKER_02: One more at Maryland, at USC.
26:24
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
26:25
SPEAKER_02: We're counting at Virginia Tech a loss, but they did beat them last year.
26:28
SPEAKER_02: I think Virginia Tech.
26:29
SPEAKER_01: They're not going to, they're not going to Lane Stadium and we and winning that game.
26:33
SPEAKER_01: I think you're right.
26:34
SPEAKER_02: I think you're right.
26:34
SPEAKER_02: And then they and they're and they're hosting your UW Huggies, Huskies.
26:37
SPEAKER_02: So you're over.
26:38
SPEAKER_02: That could be the swim game.
26:39
SPEAKER_02: Watch them be six to six, six to five going to that game.
26:42
SPEAKER_02: That could be the UW.
26:44
SPEAKER_02: We'll see.
26:45
SPEAKER_02: All right.
26:46
SPEAKER_02: So I've got Ruckers over, USC under.
26:48
SPEAKER_02: You've got UW over.
26:49
SPEAKER_02: What's your Big Ten under?
26:52
SPEAKER_01: Um, I'm gonna go.
26:53
SPEAKER_01: I it kills me to do this because, but for the sake of the game, I'm I'm going Nebraska.
27:00
SPEAKER_01: Um, but I actually like I know I actually I like Nebraska and I like Wisconsin to both be kind of sleeper teams.
27:06
SPEAKER_01: Um, but I am gonna go Nebraska uh back against the wall because, and this is like a little bit telling later, I think when you're looking at their schedule in the big swing game that we're talking about is potentially um Colorado, Nebraska early.
27:22
SPEAKER_01: Yes, and I think early Colorado is kind of dangerous.
27:26
SPEAKER_01: I don't think they have the sustainability, uh, but I think they have kind of that that flash in the pan talent to get that win.
27:34
SPEAKER_01: Um but looking at their schedule, it's no it's no Thunderdome.
27:37
SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's it's it's UTEP, Colorado, Northern Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, uh Shiana's Ruckers.
27:49
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, but they do play Iowa, they do uh do play uh Wisconsin, which I do think Wisconsin is gonna be pretty good this year.
27:57
SPEAKER_01: So um it's it's pretty thin for me, but I am gonna pick Nebraska.
28:01
SPEAKER_01: I think they probably come in at like seven wins, and it's seven and a half, right?
28:05
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think it's it's it's super thin, but I I kind of want to take Colorado in that early season game, and that that gives me that's that brings us to where we are.
28:14
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean that I mean UCLA is a loss.
28:16
SPEAKER_02: I at Iowa, I hate I like Nebraska and I'm bullish on them.
28:19
SPEAKER_02: I know you're here, let me talk with them a lot, but I think that's a loss.
28:22
SPEAKER_02: Um it's it's gonna be it's gonna be tough.
28:26
SPEAKER_02: But I mean the question for them is obviously I mean, last year was a disaster.
28:30
SPEAKER_02: Uh Henrik Harburg didn't work out.
28:32
SPEAKER_02: Uh the former Georgia Tech quarterback whose name escaped me didn't work out.
28:35
SPEAKER_02: They had a lot of their defense was really, really good.
28:37
SPEAKER_02: Matt rule had them playing really high defense.
28:39
SPEAKER_02: What you don't, what you, those of you who aren't paying super attention to, you know, is they got their they have a five-star freshman starting quarterback, Dylan Riola, who's the son of a former Nebraska player.
28:48
SPEAKER_01: Pull him from Georgia.
28:49
SPEAKER_02: From Georgia, yeah, pulled him from Georgia.
28:51
SPEAKER_02: He is the son of a former Nebraska player.
28:54
SPEAKER_02: He looks like, to all accounts, be the guy.
28:57
SPEAKER_02: One, because Nebraska's quarterback room is terrible, and two, everybody, Nebraska really, really wants him to be the guy.
29:03
SPEAKER_02: So what do you have?
29:04
SPEAKER_02: You have a good defense, a older veteran offensive line, and a true freshman quarterback with a meaty Big Ten schedule.
29:12
SPEAKER_02: I don't hate it.
29:14
SPEAKER_01: Meaty, yeah.
29:15
SPEAKER_02: Meaty.
29:16
SPEAKER_01: I guess this is not one I'm super confident in.
29:18
SPEAKER_01: I'd actually love to see Nebraska win eight or nine.
29:20
SPEAKER_01: Me too.
29:21
SPEAKER_02: We've been pulling, I think you and I have picked Nebraska to go over in this regard, like two years in a row.
29:24
SPEAKER_02: We've got we've gotten cooked on it.
29:26
SPEAKER_02: So you might be in the rush.
29:27
SPEAKER_01: And now they've got Matt Rule.
29:28
SPEAKER_01: And now I've really I like Matt Rule.
29:29
SPEAKER_01: And I think they've got you know, with Ryola, I think they've got some good building pieces.
29:33
SPEAKER_01: I just think for the sake of the game, you know, I do like what Washington for me was uh kind of an easier over.
29:39
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
29:40
SPEAKER_01: Um, and there's a lot of teams, especially, you know, when you look at the Big Ten, you've got a pretty big divide between your upper teams and your kind of middle of the pack teams.
29:51
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
29:51
SPEAKER_01: So that's kind of where we landed.
29:53
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
29:54
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
29:54
SPEAKER_02: Let's do it.
29:55
SPEAKER_02: All right, let's keep rolling.
29:56
SPEAKER_02: Let's go.
29:56
SPEAKER_02: Oh, let's go to the um S E C S E C S E C.
30:00
SPEAKER_02: Uh, I'll start with my under.
30:03
SPEAKER_02: Um, this is kind of a I think they're gonna lose early and the wheels are gonna fall off the bus, and therefore they're just gonna stay off the bus.
30:08
SPEAKER_02: I got no I got Arkansas under four and a half wins at plus one oh five, is where I see it.
30:15
SPEAKER_02: Arkansas find bluff, UAB, LaTeX.
30:20
SPEAKER_02: That is it.
30:21
SPEAKER_02: Those are their three wins.
30:23
SPEAKER_02: At Auburn, no profit.
30:24
SPEAKER_02: Uh versus Texas AM, no profit.
30:26
SPEAKER_02: Tennessee, nope, LSU, nope.
30:28
SPEAKER_02: Ole Miss, nope, Texas, nope, at Missouri, nope.
30:31
SPEAKER_02: The only swing game is at Mississippi State.
30:34
SPEAKER_02: They got to get that at Mississippi State game, which is gonna be the Cowbells.
30:37
SPEAKER_02: They're gonna be uh Jeff Levy's gonna be fighting for some traction.
30:41
SPEAKER_02: He knows it's a very winnable game.
30:42
SPEAKER_02: I think by then Sam Pittman is fired, the head coach of uh uh Arkansas.
30:48
SPEAKER_01: So and it's he was he was the media darling, you know, sweetheart like not years ago.
30:55
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, not that long ago.
30:56
SPEAKER_02: Arkansas was all Arkansas was the hot, was was peacocking a little bit there.
31:00
SPEAKER_01: AJ Jefferson.
31:01
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they had like a nine-win season in there, not so much anymore.
31:04
SPEAKER_02: So I'm thinking I'm looking at a two and ten, three and nine Arkansas with Bobby Petrino as the offensive coordinator taking over as the interim.
31:14
SPEAKER_02: Um, I don't like any of their pieces.
31:16
SPEAKER_02: I don't like, I mean, they've got they've got they've got a couple of nice guys on the defensive line, but I just their schedule is brutal.
31:23
SPEAKER_01: Um yeah, and the Petrino hire, I mean, that could spark a little something.
31:28
SPEAKER_01: I mean, he was always a pretty good offensive mind.
31:30
SPEAKER_01: He did some really creative things.
31:32
SPEAKER_01: Um but I think you're right.
31:34
SPEAKER_01: Their their schedule just doesn't line up.
31:36
SPEAKER_01: They just they have no breaks, and yeah, just uh I I I I 100% get where you're coming from on that.
31:44
SPEAKER_01: In the same vein, my pick is Florida at four and a half for the under.
31:50
SPEAKER_01: And when I first looked at this, I was like, man, four and a half for Florida.
31:54
SPEAKER_01: I know how schedule, I know how tough their schedule is.
31:56
SPEAKER_01: I know how tough their schedule is, but they are a super talented team.
31:59
SPEAKER_01: And I was like, they're gonna they're gonna hit an upset somewhere, they're gonna hit one, maybe two, but I kept I just kept looking at their schedule, and I just even if they hit one, it's it's so brutal that I just I think I think like what you said with Arkansas that the wheels kind of fall off and they just don't care by like you know, three quarters of the way through the season, Napier's already on the hot seat.
32:22
SPEAKER_01: I do think if they get to like six wins, he's probably good till next year.
32:26
SPEAKER_02: But I think if they you know if they if they can't hit four, they can't hit five, that's you know, there's a there's a reason there's a world where he's seven and five or eight and four, and he wins coach of the year with with this schedule.
32:40
SPEAKER_02: So just a little context.
32:40
SPEAKER_02: Oh, yeah, Billy Napier's going into year three, and they just happen to have an insane schedule.
32:48
SPEAKER_01: Uh oh, they they open the season with just roll it off for I know everyone knows, but yeah, yeah.
32:54
SPEAKER_02: Miami.
32:54
SPEAKER_02: Uh the only gimme's are Stanford and that's it.
33:00
SPEAKER_02: Stanford.
33:00
SPEAKER_02: Sanford is literally the only gimme.
33:02
SPEAKER_02: Miami, Texas AL at Mississippi State, they think.
33:05
SPEAKER_02: Miami, Texas AM at Mississippi State, UCF was actually pretty good.
33:09
SPEAKER_02: They have KJ Jefferson.
33:10
SPEAKER_01: They have and again, they have to go on the road at Mississippi State.
33:14
SPEAKER_01: So they're on the road.
33:15
SPEAKER_02: They're on the bell with the cowbells.
33:17
SPEAKER_02: Cowbells just a crazy thing.
33:18
SPEAKER_02: We all know that.
33:18
SPEAKER_02: Uh, they're going to Naylon.
33:20
SPEAKER_02: Naylon's uh the Vols dropped that one last year.
33:22
SPEAKER_02: I know the Vols are gonna be out for blood for that one for sure.
33:24
SPEAKER_02: Uh Kentucky with Brock Vandergriff.
33:26
SPEAKER_02: We don't know what they're gonna say.
33:27
SPEAKER_02: Kentucky might be all right, and then it gets that Kentucky Florida game is always a little weird.
33:31
SPEAKER_02: It is always a little weird.
33:32
SPEAKER_02: I think Kentucky beat him last year.
33:34
SPEAKER_02: Uh and then it's just it's unforgivingly bad.
33:38
SPEAKER_02: Georgia at Texas, uh-huh, LSU, uh-huh, Ole Miss at Florida State.
33:44
SPEAKER_02: Uh-huh.
33:44
SPEAKER_02: Good grief.
33:45
SPEAKER_02: I don't think I've ever seen, I've been watching college football pretty closely for 25 years now.
33:50
SPEAKER_02: I've never seen any team go through a worse five grade stretch.
33:54
SPEAKER_02: And at that point, if they're if they have any injury trouble, if the quarterback is, I'm sorry, if the head coach is fired, if he is done by then, how is how is the interim going to get any squad up for any of those?
34:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's it's yeah, and that's that's why this is maybe an easy pick, but still, I mean, for to to pick an under at for Florida at four and a half, um, it doesn't feel like an easy pick.
34:17
SPEAKER_01: Um it even just I had to look at the schedule so many times and and look.
34:22
SPEAKER_01: I mean, Graham Mertz transferred from Wisconsin, came in last year and did a really good job.
34:27
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they've got so much talent across, I mean, they're still recruiting pretty well.
34:32
SPEAKER_01: Um, their offensive line um is is a concern, but uh, they've got skill position guys all over the place.
34:39
SPEAKER_01: And I just think, yeah, it's just gonna be tough to sustain with what what they've got to deal with.
34:44
SPEAKER_02: The fun thing about Florida is we're gonna know pretty early.
34:46
SPEAKER_02: If they're three and one after September, which is the Miami game at home, Sanford, which is a win, Texas AM at Mississippi State, they're probably gonna be two and two, but they're if they're one and three, he's done.
34:57
SPEAKER_02: If they're three and one, they're gonna be they're they're gonna get two more wins.
35:01
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, this bet is over.
35:02
SPEAKER_02: So we're gonna know about this four and a half bet because those last five games, those are five losses.
35:07
SPEAKER_02: Those are five losses.
35:08
SPEAKER_02: They're gonna lose all five of those games.
35:10
SPEAKER_02: I really do think so.
35:11
SPEAKER_02: Um, for Florida, the whole goal this year is just to keep the game intact.
35:14
SPEAKER_02: They've got the five-star plus DJ Lagway super commit on board.
35:18
SPEAKER_02: They've made some nice inroads, they've got they've picked up some talent.
35:21
SPEAKER_02: You know, Napier really had to rebuild the roster from the last regime.
35:25
SPEAKER_02: Um, so for Napier, it's just can they get to a bowl?
35:28
SPEAKER_02: Can they survive?
35:29
SPEAKER_02: I don't think they can.
35:30
SPEAKER_02: And I think I'm with you.
35:31
SPEAKER_02: I like Florida's, I like Florida going under four and a half as well.
35:35
SPEAKER_02: Uh, let's move on to the next one.
35:37
SPEAKER_02: This is a big one.
35:38
SPEAKER_02: I guess it's a big payout on this one.
35:39
SPEAKER_02: I got Missouri over nine and a half wins at plus one fifty-four.
35:47
SPEAKER_02: So you're getting three to two on your money.
35:50
SPEAKER_02: And I'm gonna be honest with you, a lot of this is just schedule.
35:54
SPEAKER_02: Okay, they have schedule, they've got the Charmin baby soft schedule.
35:59
SPEAKER_02: I cannot believe how easy their schedule is.
36:02
SPEAKER_02: Murray State.
36:03
SPEAKER_02: It's actually coming right after Florida.
36:05
SPEAKER_02: Like, look at this.
36:05
SPEAKER_02: It's on almost like unfair.
36:07
SPEAKER_02: Yes.
36:08
SPEAKER_02: They have what I would I would say for one.
36:12
SPEAKER_02: Let's give Missouri their flowers.
36:14
SPEAKER_02: They're a good team.
36:15
SPEAKER_02: They got brave cardbacks, they're bringing back Luther Burden, who's an all-American wide receiver.
36:19
SPEAKER_02: They're bringing back the only thing they're really losing is their running back, uh Cody Schrader, and their defensive coordinator, Blake Baker, who's actually now LSU's defensive coordinator, which we'll hear more about later.
36:28
SPEAKER_02: Um, but otherwise, they're bringing a lot back, and they were 10-2 last year.
36:32
SPEAKER_02: They were 11-2.
36:33
SPEAKER_02: Who they beating that bowl again?
36:34
SPEAKER_02: They had a big bowl win.
36:35
SPEAKER_02: Was it Ohio State?
36:36
SPEAKER_02: Ohio State.
36:37
SPEAKER_02: Ohio State, yeah.
36:38
SPEAKER_02: So they they finished 11-2.
36:39
SPEAKER_02: They're bringing up.
36:40
SPEAKER_02: But a lot of those Ohio State guys.
36:42
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they're fair enough.
36:43
SPEAKER_02: But Eli Drinkowitz is a really good coach, and he knows they're doing he's a pretty good coach.
36:48
SPEAKER_02: 11 and actually he's pretty good.
36:50
SPEAKER_02: If he goes back to back double win season, which I think he's going to this year, I don't think you can really say that.
36:54
SPEAKER_02: But anyway, um I think you can say that when you look at their dog crap schedule that they're looking at this year.
37:00
SPEAKER_01: There's a good team with like they're a good team that somebody gave like a shot in the arm to.
37:08
SPEAKER_01: Like they would have to actively try to mess this up.
37:12
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
37:13
SPEAKER_02: Uh yeah, I hear you.
37:15
SPEAKER_02: I'm looking at their schedule, though.
37:16
SPEAKER_02: So they've got, in my opinion, they've got four losable games at AM versus Auburn, which maybe not be losable, at Bama and versus Oklahoma.
37:24
SPEAKER_02: So those are the four only losable games at UMass, South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Boston College, Buffalo, Murray.
37:35
SPEAKER_02: They're not losing any of those games.
37:36
SPEAKER_02: They're not losing any of those games.
37:37
SPEAKER_02: They're too well coached, they got too good a quarterback, they got Luther Burden, they got too many good players.
37:42
SPEAKER_01: They're an FCC, they're an upper tier SEC team this year.
37:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
37:47
SPEAKER_01: This year, which means they don't that you can't lose those games.
37:51
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I I kind of like I kind of like Missouri to make the playoff this year.
37:54
SPEAKER_02: I think they're gonna see four SEC teams get in.
37:56
SPEAKER_02: I'm not saying they're the best one of the best four teams in the SEC, but I think I think they're gonna backdoor.
38:02
SPEAKER_02: They might very well might backdoor their wins.
38:04
SPEAKER_02: So anyway, that's a three to two.
38:05
SPEAKER_02: That's actually my best bet for making money is Missouri over nine and a half wins at plus 150.
38:11
SPEAKER_02: Love that.
38:11
SPEAKER_02: They're not losing more than two games.
38:13
SPEAKER_02: Uh yeah.
38:14
SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah.
38:15
SPEAKER_02: Your next SEC one.
38:17
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this one is really fun for me.
38:20
SPEAKER_01: And I this happens so this happens like almost every year when I when I look at this.
38:24
SPEAKER_01: I'm like, what is the over under on Vanderbilt's win total?
38:29
SPEAKER_01: Because it's always like two, and they always hit the over.
38:34
SPEAKER_01: So it's two and a half this year, and they're gonna hit the over.
38:38
SPEAKER_01: They're not a good team.
38:40
SPEAKER_01: Um, but it's just like you just you you can't keep a good door down.
38:46
SPEAKER_01: Uh they've got Georgia State, Alcorn State, and then they'll they'll win one more somewhere.
38:52
SPEAKER_01: Ball state, three wins, count it, go make money.
38:56
SPEAKER_02: That's so it's two.
38:58
SPEAKER_02: What's what are the odds, Jimber?
38:59
SPEAKER_02: You said two and a half.
39:00
SPEAKER_01: Uh I don't I don't know what the odds are.
39:02
SPEAKER_02: Alcorn, Georgia State.
39:05
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I I like it.
39:06
SPEAKER_02: I don't think it's gotta be those three.
39:08
SPEAKER_02: It's gotta be ball state, yeah.
39:10
SPEAKER_02: Georgia's gotta be those three.
39:11
SPEAKER_02: Um, they're not gonna beat the hookies neither.
39:15
SPEAKER_01: But that's a pretty good three, right?
39:16
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it is a good three.
39:17
SPEAKER_02: And I mean, they're not they're not dead at Kentucky, they're not dead versus South Carolina at home.
39:22
SPEAKER_02: Aren't they playing in like a parking lot though?
39:24
SPEAKER_02: Because in their stadium, like still like under major renovations or something.
39:27
SPEAKER_01: So last, yeah.
39:28
SPEAKER_01: I mean, they they were doing renovations like during games last year.
39:31
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no idea what's gonna be.
39:32
SPEAKER_02: I'm not gonna argue they're gonna be fans at Vanderbilt Games anyway, but I don't think I think their stadium is an absolute mess right now.
39:39
SPEAKER_01: So I will say that that South Carolina Vanderbilt game late in the season at Vandy could be.
39:46
SPEAKER_01: South Carolina could be reeling.
39:47
SPEAKER_01: Their over-under was like five, five and a half, and they have a really tough schedule too.
39:52
SPEAKER_01: Who knows what shape they'll be in?
39:53
SPEAKER_01: Yep, but there are opportunities on this schedule to to blow this blow this two and a half out of the water.
39:59
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
40:00
SPEAKER_02: No, I I I think I I think I like it as well.
40:02
SPEAKER_02: And one more thing, I think actually, I think of all the things, of all the Vandy things that I think I have that they have for work for Clark Lee is probably the coach on the hot seat more than any other coach in the country.
40:12
SPEAKER_02: So he is fighting for his life.
40:13
SPEAKER_02: So, you know, is it is it is this like a is this like a wounded, you know, wounded animal situation where like they'll he's pulling all the cats out of the bag, trick plays, firing up, saving all of his best speeches, you know, anything that Clark Lee has left for a chance to try and save his job, he's gonna show it now.
40:30
SPEAKER_02: And I think that's probably enough to get three wins.
40:33
SPEAKER_02: I think it is.
40:34
SPEAKER_02: No, three.
40:35
SPEAKER_02: Let's go ahead and agree.
40:36
SPEAKER_02: Not asking for lunch.
40:38
SPEAKER_02: Not asking for lunch.
40:39
SPEAKER_02: Come on, Vandy, anchors down.
40:42
SPEAKER_02: Um, all right, cool.
40:43
SPEAKER_02: Are we good?
40:44
SPEAKER_02: Oh, have you finished up?
40:45
SPEAKER_02: You did both your S you did both your SCC?
40:46
SPEAKER_02: Okay, cool.
40:47
SPEAKER_02: We just cleaned up the FCC.
40:48
SPEAKER_02: We did.
40:49
SPEAKER_02: All right, let's go, let's go to the big 12 for our last four picks.
40:53
SPEAKER_02: Um I'll start off.
40:55
SPEAKER_02: We'll start with mine.
40:56
SPEAKER_02: My under is Cincinnati, five and a half minus 102.
41:01
SPEAKER_02: So it's almost even money, give or take.
41:03
SPEAKER_02: I'm gonna be honest with you.
41:04
SPEAKER_02: Cincinnati is the worst team in power four, uh including Vandy.
41:07
SPEAKER_02: Uh, there's nobody worse.
41:08
SPEAKER_02: Um, I think I I think what they're doing uh is terrible.
41:13
SPEAKER_02: Um, I don't like any.
41:14
SPEAKER_02: They they shouldn't they shouldn't have moved up.
41:16
SPEAKER_02: I wreck they are so far from where they were with Sauce Gardner and making the playoff a couple years ago.
41:21
SPEAKER_02: Um there they only have two gimme's uh Towson at Miami.
41:26
SPEAKER_02: They play 10 uh P4 teams, they play Arizona State, who's not very good, and at Pitt, but those are power four squads, those are good.
41:34
SPEAKER_02: They might luck their way to four, possibly five.
41:38
SPEAKER_02: There is no way this Cincinnati team is going bowling, which is what this game was what this what would have to happen for this bet to lose under five and a half.
41:49
SPEAKER_02: You can't find me six wins on Cincinnati's football schedule, especially since they're the worst team in power four, and uh and they're playing 10 power four teams.
41:58
SPEAKER_01: I like it.
41:59
SPEAKER_01: Good call.
42:00
SPEAKER_01: Very well succinct, good presentation.
42:03
SPEAKER_01: Um, give me ten thousand dollars.
42:06
SPEAKER_02: One more thing I will say about the big 12.
42:07
SPEAKER_02: We'll put the big 12.
42:08
SPEAKER_02: So the Big 12 in my mind is like two or three teams that are like probably vying for it.
42:12
SPEAKER_02: K-State, uh, see, I think the big Big 12 is kind of wide open.
42:17
SPEAKER_02: Well, that's kind of that's kind of what I'm gonna say.
42:18
SPEAKER_02: I think there's like a small upper crust, and then there's like nine, 10 teams that are all like kind of good, like could could be like plucky, hard to win, yeah, gonna beat a lot.
42:28
SPEAKER_02: So Cincinnati, uh my point is that Cincinnati's just gonna have to find their way six wins through there.
42:33
SPEAKER_02: Uh Houston, uh Texas Tech, UCF, uh, uh, Colorado, uh, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU.
42:41
SPEAKER_02: These are all hit.
42:42
SPEAKER_02: These are all very losable games.
42:44
SPEAKER_02: I just can't see them getting a six and six because the Big 12 is not super top heavy like like maybe the ACC is, maybe the Big Ten is in a little bit.
42:52
SPEAKER_02: The Big 12 is going to have a really meaty middle, and you're gonna have to be pretty good to get full eligible.
42:58
SPEAKER_02: You're not gonna be able to like give up losses to Clemson and Florida State and then run up the wins everywhere else.
43:03
SPEAKER_02: So give me Cincinnati under no bearcats.
43:08
SPEAKER_01: I like it, especially the raw at the end.
43:11
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's um, so I kind of played my hand earlier.
43:13
SPEAKER_01: Um, but I'm going with um Colorado and and prime time to get over that five and a half.
43:20
SPEAKER_01: All right.
43:22
SPEAKER_01: Again, tell me talking about the big 12.
43:24
SPEAKER_02: Yep.
43:25
SPEAKER_02: I huge, huge improvement from where they were at four and eight and the power 12, big pack 12.
43:29
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and this is kind of so this is kind of the year for them.
43:34
SPEAKER_01: Like, if if they don't move the needle a little bit more, like the circus is over, you know, like they're riding high on transfers.
43:42
SPEAKER_01: Uh, there's been a ton, and we maybe we get into this in our off the in the off-season conversation.
43:49
SPEAKER_01: Um, a ton of stuff coming out of Colorado around their culture, um a lot of just bad news.
43:56
SPEAKER_01: So this is like rubber meets the road.
44:00
SPEAKER_01: Five and a half wins.
44:01
SPEAKER_01: You look at their schedule.
44:03
SPEAKER_01: Uh, I'm gonna just click it, click it all for you.
44:05
SPEAKER_01: Um North Dakota State, no pushover, but they should handle um Nebraska.
44:11
SPEAKER_01: Two touchdowns, Faber, Baylor.
44:14
SPEAKER_01: So when I'm looking at this schedule, those are kind of the first games I'm circling State, North Dakota State, Nebraska, Colorado State, Baylor.
44:23
SPEAKER_01: Baylor's in a big rebuild.
44:25
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
44:25
SPEAKER_01: Um Aranda potentially on the hot seat.
44:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they might be bad again.
44:29
SPEAKER_01: Cincinnati, um, Cincinnati, you just highlighted.
44:33
SPEAKER_01: And then it's like, can you can you get one one of those flip games?
44:37
SPEAKER_01: And then you're good.
44:38
SPEAKER_01: They're not beaten.
44:39
SPEAKER_01: Utah, probably not beating Oklahoma State or Kansas late, really, for that matter.
44:43
SPEAKER_01: So it's all about the front end of the schedule for them.
44:46
SPEAKER_01: And you know, it's a fun one.
44:48
SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about Dion more.
44:50
SPEAKER_02: So here's my case for Colorado.
44:51
SPEAKER_02: Colorado has, I mean, I totally agree with what you're saying because frankly, he has I say what you will about Colorado, they have an NFL quarterback.
44:59
SPEAKER_02: Shadur Sanders is an NFL quarterback.
45:01
SPEAKER_02: They've got Travis Hunter.
45:02
SPEAKER_02: They've got talent spots.
45:03
SPEAKER_02: They're not deep.
45:04
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they're not deep.
45:05
SPEAKER_02: Travis Hunter is one of the best, if not the if not the best, dynamic playmakers in college football.
45:10
SPEAKER_02: Jimmy Horns, excellent receiver.
45:12
SPEAKER_02: All of those guys are gonna move on next year.
45:15
SPEAKER_02: So I kind of think Dion will as well.
45:17
SPEAKER_02: Then they're in big trouble.
45:18
SPEAKER_02: Then they're in big, big trouble.
45:20
SPEAKER_02: And I kind of think Dion will.
45:21
SPEAKER_02: What they've done this year, uh, and I know they lost their running back Dylan Edwards.
45:24
SPEAKER_02: I know he transferred out, can't remember where top of my mind.
45:26
SPEAKER_02: Um, but they they've retained most of their offense.
45:28
SPEAKER_02: The offensive line got a lot better.
45:30
SPEAKER_02: They are starting a five-star true freshman left tackle.
45:33
SPEAKER_02: We'll see how that goes.
45:34
SPEAKER_02: Uh, not necessarily great start true freshman.
45:36
SPEAKER_01: Not the best, uh not the best position you want to start, even a five-star.
45:40
SPEAKER_02: The thing is, is Colorado for their frontline offense is actually pretty darn good.
45:45
SPEAKER_02: They've got skills and talent.
45:46
SPEAKER_02: The question is depth, especially in the trenches.
45:49
SPEAKER_02: I'm kind of might what what's the uh how many wins the total?
45:52
SPEAKER_02: Was he said five and a half?
45:53
SPEAKER_02: Five and a half.
45:54
SPEAKER_02: Five and a half.
45:55
SPEAKER_02: If they can beat bowl eligible, they gotta get it early.
45:57
SPEAKER_02: I think they have to go.
45:58
SPEAKER_02: So I think that for your bet to hit, I think they have to be four and one in the first month.
46:02
SPEAKER_02: That's what I'm saying.
46:03
SPEAKER_02: They can at Nebraska, at Colorado, Baylor, UCF.
46:06
SPEAKER_02: I think they gotta win.
46:07
SPEAKER_02: I think they win they gotta win four of those.
46:09
SPEAKER_02: They're gonna win Cincinnati and then they'll they could squeeze one more out.
46:12
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
46:13
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think that's what makes it a good bet because you've got half the season to win like one more game.
46:19
SPEAKER_01: And it's true.
46:19
SPEAKER_02: And honestly, if they're four and one and their confidence, there's gonna be a lot of buzz around there and they're playing high-level football, like the wheels will still be intact.
46:26
SPEAKER_01: The amount of buzz will be obnoxious.
46:28
SPEAKER_02: Obnoxious, but I mean, like, honestly, if they're four and one at that point, they might they might deserve some of it.
46:32
SPEAKER_02: And that means, and that that point that also means they're still relatively healthy.
46:36
SPEAKER_02: So they could go into those games, and a lot of their toughest games are actually home games.
46:40
SPEAKER_02: K-State, really good, got them at home.
46:43
SPEAKER_02: Um, yeah, uh Utah, really, really good.
46:46
SPEAKER_02: Get them at home.
46:47
SPEAKER_02: Oklahoma State, really good, get them at home.
46:49
SPEAKER_02: Going to altitude, boulders 6,000 feet, the mile above, you know.
46:53
SPEAKER_02: Maybe, maybe they maybe, maybe they catch one.
46:56
SPEAKER_01: Maybe the maybe the defense gets distracted by the view of the mountains.
47:00
SPEAKER_01: They're they're they're quite nice.
47:01
SPEAKER_01: They've been out there, it's very beautiful.
47:03
SPEAKER_02: Uh, all right, let's go my next one.
47:04
SPEAKER_02: Um, I'm actually gonna go.
47:05
SPEAKER_02: This is my sleeper pick to actually win the Big Ten.
47:07
SPEAKER_02: This low, this line's only seven and a half.
47:09
SPEAKER_02: Give me the Iowa State Cyclones over seven and a half.
47:14
SPEAKER_02: I love Iowa State this year.
47:17
SPEAKER_02: Minus 115 over seven and a half.
47:19
SPEAKER_02: They might win the Big 12 outright.
47:21
SPEAKER_02: I think they have the fourth best odds right now behind Utah, K-State, and Oklahoma State.
47:25
SPEAKER_02: I think they're number, I think they're sitting there at number four.
47:28
SPEAKER_02: So some things happened to that you should know about Ohio State.
47:30
SPEAKER_02: Iowa State had the big gambling uh controversy last year.
47:33
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they dismissed their quarterback.
47:35
SPEAKER_02: Um, and they Rocco Beck had to be thrust to play.
47:38
SPEAKER_02: There's a lot of players.
47:39
SPEAKER_02: The point is blah, blah, blah, blah.
47:40
SPEAKER_02: There was a lot of guys that were supposed to be bench warmers, depth guys last year, like got a lot of seasoning, got a lot of snaps, got a lot of action, a lot of experience this year.
47:50
SPEAKER_02: So they are actually bringing back a far more experienced teams than they want to.
47:55
SPEAKER_02: 18 of 22 starters back, number one in returning production in the nation at 86%.
48:03
SPEAKER_02: Um, I like that.
48:05
SPEAKER_02: Mike and I have talked about Matt Campbell on here before.
48:07
SPEAKER_02: Um, I, you know, other than Kyle Winningham, I think he's the second best coach in the conference.
48:11
SPEAKER_02: Um, Kyle Winningham, the coach of Utah.
48:13
SPEAKER_02: He's a very good coach, very good quarterback, a ton of experience.
48:17
SPEAKER_02: They always play good defense.
48:19
SPEAKER_02: The one thing I don't like about this is I don't love their schedule.
48:23
SPEAKER_02: Their schedule is uh tough.
48:25
SPEAKER_02: North Dakota, uh, not not a put not an FCS pushover, probably went with a ton of pushover at Iowa.
48:31
SPEAKER_02: That's gonna be the big rivalry game, playing obviously at Kennick.
48:34
SPEAKER_02: That's gonna be brutal.
48:35
SPEAKER_02: Um, Houston, West Virginia, UCF, Kansas, Utah, K-State.
48:40
SPEAKER_02: Those are all losable games.
48:42
SPEAKER_02: Those are all good teams.
48:43
SPEAKER_02: So sure, there's a world where Iowa State goes seven and five.
48:47
SPEAKER_02: I don't think it's gonna happen.
48:48
SPEAKER_02: I think they're 10 and 2.
48:50
SPEAKER_02: I like I like Iowa State to make an appearance in the Big 12 championship game and crush this.
48:56
SPEAKER_02: I think they're gonna go way over seven and a half.
48:59
SPEAKER_02: I don't see a I don't see a world where they're worse than eight and four.
49:02
SPEAKER_02: Uh, as was what I'm saying.
49:04
SPEAKER_02: So give me the over, give me the clones.
49:06
SPEAKER_02: I'm really bullish on them.
49:07
SPEAKER_02: You're gonna hear me talk about them a lot this year.
49:08
SPEAKER_02: Seven and a half is way too low.
49:10
SPEAKER_02: Give me that money.
49:12
SPEAKER_01: I like it.
49:12
SPEAKER_01: I like it a lot.
49:13
SPEAKER_01: Um, I had a really, really hard time with picking the under here because, like we said, there were so many of these like middle of the road teams, um, teams that you know could very easily compete for the conference championship.
49:30
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, it's just I don't I had a hard time, put it that way.
49:36
SPEAKER_01: Uh so I went with Houston.
49:39
SPEAKER_01: They've got over-under at three and a half wins, and I want you to lose all of your games.
49:47
SPEAKER_01: And their schedule is probably not going to warrant that because they've got some winnable games on there.
49:56
SPEAKER_01: They do uh UNLV, Rice, Rice is a gimme, don't lose the food, um, and and Baylor.
50:02
SPEAKER_01: Yep, don't lose the food.
50:04
SPEAKER_01: So it's it's we're right there.
50:07
SPEAKER_01: Um, but give me an injury or two.
50:09
SPEAKER_01: Houston loses all the games except they're in the midst of a major rebuild.
50:15
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they're in the midst of a major rebuild.
50:17
SPEAKER_02: Um at BYU is a is is uh I mean BYU is gonna be bad this year as well, but we don't know what BYU by November they actually might be a little bit better.
50:25
SPEAKER_02: Um, and they're going up to Provo for that one.
50:28
SPEAKER_02: So I wouldn't be surprised if BYU is a much better team at that point.
50:31
SPEAKER_02: Um, I'm bullish on Houston long term.
50:33
SPEAKER_02: I think what they're doing down there with Tillman Fertita, one of the best uh prom one of the best uh NIL boosters you could have.
50:41
SPEAKER_02: Amazing guy.
50:42
SPEAKER_02: The Houston area is just ripe with talent.
50:45
SPEAKER_02: Um I like their coaching, I like what they're doing.
50:48
SPEAKER_02: It's just gonna take a minute.
50:49
SPEAKER_02: It's gonna take a minute.
50:50
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean it's not gonna end this year.
50:51
SPEAKER_01: To lose that many games is is kind of a stretch, I think.
50:54
SPEAKER_01: Um, but that's why they put the the over under there.
50:57
SPEAKER_01: All it takes is an injury, uh, but kind of a throwaway pick for me.
51:01
SPEAKER_01: Give me Houston to win.
51:03
SPEAKER_02: Houston.
51:03
SPEAKER_02: I really like Willie Fritz.
51:04
SPEAKER_02: I mean, Willie Fritz is the new head coach.
51:06
SPEAKER_02: He came over from Tulane, I believe, where he did a lot of the really good things at Tulane.
51:10
SPEAKER_02: They obviously went to the uh ultimate with the sugar bowl, knocked off USC.
51:13
SPEAKER_02: So Willie Fritz was one of the better names in college football to get a uh P4 job.
51:18
SPEAKER_02: But again, for now, give him it some give him some time, give him a minute.
51:22
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, Houston is a place you can you can you can win.
51:25
SPEAKER_01: And obviously, now if they're in a major conference, so that bodes well for the future for them.
51:29
SPEAKER_01: They're gonna have better recruiting.
51:31
SPEAKER_02: Um Hermann Tom Herman won 12 games there or 11 games there.
51:35
SPEAKER_02: I mean, you can do it, it's it's possible.
51:37
SPEAKER_02: Um, but um, I don't think it's gonna happen in 2024 if just between you and me.
51:41
SPEAKER_02: So yeah, three games.
51:42
SPEAKER_02: Three games.
51:44
SPEAKER_02: Uh very cool.
51:45
SPEAKER_02: All right, uh, let's go quickly run through them again.
51:47
SPEAKER_02: ACC, uh Florida State under nine and a half, SMU over eight and a half.
51:51
SPEAKER_02: You had what'd you have for the ACC?
51:53
SPEAKER_01: Miami under Syracuse over.
51:56
SPEAKER_02: All right, very cool.
51:57
SPEAKER_02: Big Ten.
51:57
SPEAKER_02: I got Rutgers over six and a half, USC under seven and a half.
52:02
SPEAKER_02: What'd you have?
52:03
SPEAKER_01: Washington over six and a half, Nebraska under seven and a half.
52:08
SPEAKER_01: Perfect.
52:08
SPEAKER_02: Arkansas, oh I'm sorry, Arkansas under four and a half, Missouri, best bet, best my gold star, mic wave bet of the day over nine and a half.
52:16
SPEAKER_02: What'd you have?
52:17
SPEAKER_02: The SEC?
52:18
SPEAKER_01: Florida, uh under four and a half, Van D.
52:23
SPEAKER_01: Over two and a half.
52:24
SPEAKER_01: That's that's you can take that one to the freaking bank, man.
52:27
SPEAKER_02: There it is.
52:28
SPEAKER_02: Missouri and Vanny are the ones you make making most money on.
52:30
SPEAKER_02: And last not least, you know, the Big 12.
52:31
SPEAKER_02: I got Cincinnati is the worst team in power four under five and a half.
52:34
SPEAKER_02: There's no way they're gonna have many games, and Iowa State over seven and a half.
52:38
SPEAKER_02: And who's your who are your Big 12 teams?
52:40
SPEAKER_01: Colorado, five and a half over and Houston.
52:45
SPEAKER_01: Nice, very nice.
52:47
SPEAKER_02: So, folks, uh yeah, we were wrong.
52:48
SPEAKER_02: We thought we were gonna have some.
52:49
SPEAKER_02: I'm surprised.
52:50
SPEAKER_02: We'd have us, we didn't talk about the same team once.
52:53
SPEAKER_02: That's pretty crazy.
52:54
SPEAKER_02: I'm I'm shocked.
52:55
SPEAKER_01: I'm actually kind of disappointed.
52:56
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, also Greg Ciano, terrible coach.
52:59
SPEAKER_01: We'll see, man.
53:01
SPEAKER_01: Should we rattle off his his his track record at Ruckers?
53:04
SPEAKER_01: When you say he's a good coach for Ruckers, what do you exactly mean by that?
53:08
SPEAKER_01: Uh, so I know they've gotten bull eligible, I think, once.
53:12
SPEAKER_02: Well, his first ruckers, yeah, he had that great year with um uh Ray Rice.
53:17
SPEAKER_02: I mean, they did some things once upon a time.
53:19
SPEAKER_02: So he is he has he is he has brought them to respect.
53:22
SPEAKER_02: We're talking about Ruckers, Ruckers, which is like historically one of the worst teams ever.
53:27
SPEAKER_02: They are a far cry from that.
53:30
SPEAKER_02: That's really this is all about perspective.
53:31
SPEAKER_01: And I what I have they they have they're always one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.
53:35
SPEAKER_01: I don't know what you're talking about.
53:36
SPEAKER_02: No, I was just saying, so from that, from that perspective, they're great.
53:41
SPEAKER_02: I'm saying, I'm saying to take a program that's just historically bad, always bad.
53:45
SPEAKER_02: He this year and last year, he's gotten them better, he's gotten them more respectful.
53:49
SPEAKER_01: What I won a bowl game in 2023.
53:51
SPEAKER_01: Before that, he won four games, five games, and three games.
53:55
SPEAKER_02: Okay, that's not well, three games a little tough, but four games, five games, okay.
53:59
SPEAKER_02: Four games is good, even at ruckers.
54:00
SPEAKER_02: That's not good.
54:01
SPEAKER_02: That's let's let's get better.
54:02
SPEAKER_02: What are we talking about?
54:03
SPEAKER_02: I'm saying over, I'm saying over six and a half.
54:05
SPEAKER_02: Okay, maybe I'm a little bullish, but we'll find out.
54:07
SPEAKER_02: Anyway, I'm bullish on ruckers.
54:08
SPEAKER_02: They bring coach the bring week coach, and they get the Greek and they got the Greek rocket, they got Ethan Calic Matis.
54:14
SPEAKER_02: Um miss note transfer.
54:15
SPEAKER_02: So we shall see.
54:17
SPEAKER_02: We shall see.
54:18
SPEAKER_02: All right, that's uh that's we said we'd have a quick show, we're still talking for an hour.
54:21
SPEAKER_02: How about that?
54:21
SPEAKER_02: Um, let's go ahead and put a bow in this thing.
54:23
SPEAKER_02: Um, folks, thank you so much for listening.
54:25
SPEAKER_02: Again, we're gonna tune in later this week for off-season storylines and bold predictions.
54:30
SPEAKER_02: Bold predictions, we're gonna talk about conference winners, playoffs, national champion, Heisman, uh, hopefuls, um, coach of the year.
54:36
SPEAKER_02: I'm still scripting at it right now, but we're gonna predict a bunch of silly stuff.
54:39
SPEAKER_02: So that'll be really fun.
54:41
SPEAKER_02: We've we'll love doing that, and we'll talk about that at the end of the year.
54:44
SPEAKER_02: All season storylines, just a great way to get you caught up.
54:46
SPEAKER_02: It's been Mike and I were talking about before the show the show started.
54:49
SPEAKER_02: It has been a crazy, crazy offseason.
54:52
SPEAKER_02: Crazy.
54:53
SPEAKER_02: Nine, so we're gonna devote a pretty much a whole show just to try and talk about as we're just to really summarize closely what has happened in the last nine months, and it's still happening.
55:02
SPEAKER_02: So we'll kind of get you caught up on what you need to know going into um opening wake-off.
55:06
SPEAKER_02: I mean, week zero is in six days, man.
55:08
SPEAKER_02: Week zero.
55:09
SPEAKER_01: I am excited.
55:10
SPEAKER_01: I it's crept up on me so much that I like I haven't even like fully gotten like heights for it yet.
55:16
SPEAKER_01: But like, yeah, we're we're getting into the college football season, baby.
55:19
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's time, it is time.
55:21
SPEAKER_02: Uh, for me, my for me, Mike Wade over here.
55:23
SPEAKER_02: I'm your host, Mike Blitz, my co-host over there, Mike Wade.
55:26
SPEAKER_02: It's been awesome.
55:27
SPEAKER_02: Thank you so much for coming, listening, Mike Blitz.
55:29
SPEAKER_02: Uh, we'll see you guys next time.
55:31
SPEAKER_02: Check it later.
55:34
SPEAKER_00: If you go to go Hallie will go.
55:53
SPEAKER_04: Hey, Hallie will go.