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Transcript

We Owe You an Apology. · The Curve

• 0:00
  Welcome to the Curve Weekly, where we read the finance news so you don't have to.
• 0:04
  I'm Vic Harris, I'm a finance professional and I've made a career out of making money
• 0:08
  for other people.
• 0:09
  And I'm Sophie Hallwright, I am a ex-producer of TV radio.
• 0:14
  I just was really sick and tired of not knowing what's going on so we created this podcast.
• 0:18
  In today's episode, the first thing we speak about is what is going on with oil and
• 0:22
  the war and actually quite interestingly, what is all of the drama and sneaky stuff that's
• 0:27
  going on in the prediction markets as a result of that.
• 0:30
  One of the biggest music companies in the world is about to be taken over and we talk about
• 0:34
  why this is such an attractive space at the moment.
• 0:37
  Weight loss drugs, we've spoken about this quite a lot.
• 0:40
  There's a huge innovation that's just happened which means that so many more people are going
• 0:44
  to have access and probably want to take this drug.
• 0:47
  What does it mean not only for this space as an investing opportunity but all of the adjacent
• 0:52
  investing opportunities that are popping up as a result of more people flocking to these
• 0:56
  drugs?
• 0:57
  A new Netflix series that might be about to start in the AI space as Elon Musk and Open
• 1:04
  AI go head to head in court but before we jump in, we have a bit of an apology.
• 1:10
  Quite a serious one.
• 1:12
  Look, I think we need to start this podcast with a bit of an apology.
• 1:17
  Oh God, what are we apologising for?
• 1:19
  I think we've upset a few people.
• 1:21
  Have we?
• 1:22
  Yes.
• 1:23
  Oh God.
• 1:24
  Who?
• 1:25
  Are you being?
• 1:26
  I can't tell if this is fully serious.
• 1:27
  I really hurt a lot of people.
• 1:31
  Just don't really know how to apologise for this, to be honest.
• 1:34
  What have we done?
• 1:35
  I'm like really worried.
• 1:36
  I don't know about you but I have had a lot of friends message me after last week's
• 1:40
  episode.
• 1:41
  Oh man.
• 1:42
  Oh man.
• 1:43
  I first see I'm really sorry and I know this I'm sorry too.
• 1:50
  We're both sorry for anyone that's been offended but I stand by the fact that all birds
• 1:56
  are not an attractive show.
• 1:59
  Oh, it's so, I was honestly so worried, like so worried about what we've done because
• 2:06
  but that's hilarious.
• 2:07
  Yeah, there's been so many people messaging saying, if you, I have, I have all birds.
• 2:12
  People have seen me photos of their fate being like, I was listening to the podcast.
• 2:15
  Well, I was wearing my all birds and they do have different styles.
• 2:19
  Thank you.
• 2:20
  Oh my God.
• 2:21
  Okay, right.
• 2:22
  So actually maybe we're the.
• 2:23
  We're the fake news.
• 2:24
  Sorry.
• 2:25
  Oh my God.
• 2:26
  Okay, right.
• 2:27
  For anyone who has all birds and stands by their hideous woolen shows, I'm really sorry.
• 2:33
  Oh yeah.
• 2:34
  One free demon was like, you know, if you need an all birds expert to come on the podcast
• 2:38
  and just job it, it's so funny.
• 2:42
  So yeah, apologies but kind of not apologies.
• 2:46
  I don't think we're apologizing.
• 2:47
  I'm feeling pretty confident.
• 2:49
  I will, I will say completely honestly, having a podcast and talking is quite an alarming
• 2:56
  high-risk career, I would say because not only do I say really stupid things a lot of
• 3:04
  the time, I'm also not a finance expert and I feel honestly I'm teetering on the edge
• 3:11
  of being like completely hung out to dry at some point for accidentally saying the wrong
• 3:16
  thing.
• 3:17
  You started saying that, I was like, oh my God, it's happened, it's happened.
• 3:23
  Cause like we don't mean to but you can't, you actually can't get it right all the time.
• 3:28
  But like I definitely will not be apologising for saying all birds ugly.
• 3:32
  And you know what?
• 3:33
  They'll probably be a collector's item soon.
• 3:35
  So like all those people, you know, will probably be a great investment down the track.
• 3:40
  Honestly that is so funny.
• 3:43
  I can't believe how many people were like, excuse me.
• 3:46
  Yeah.
• 3:47
  I did see someone that said they found it funny, like they were like, I still love them,
• 3:51
  but it pretty hilarious, I was like, okay, great, well at least you can see the light
• 3:54
  side to that.
• 3:55
  I think the proofs in the pudding here, Vic.
• 3:57
  Totally.
• 3:58
  The businesses totally tanked, so like if the designs were amazing, that business would
• 4:03
  be flying.
• 4:04
  And if they were, you know, a mess of trend and people were buying them and more people
• 4:09
  buying them, then their sales would go up and they wouldn't have these issues, so yes.
• 4:13
  100% the kind of broadcasting live from the depths of the country in England.
• 4:19
  In Devon.
• 4:20
  In Devon.
• 4:21
  I'm living my best country life.
• 4:22
  I must say it's stunning out here, like so beautiful.
• 4:28
  I'm in like rolling hills, mini sheep.
• 4:31
  Mini sheep, just like New Zealand, just like home, but it's just like so quintessential
• 4:37
  what you would imagine from like British countries.
• 4:40
  Yeah.
• 4:41
  So gorgeous.
• 4:42
  I've been staying at my boyfriend's parents' house and they've got these two dogs called
• 4:45
  Dido and Toast.
• 4:47
  Dido.
• 4:48
  I know.
• 4:49
  Isn't that the best dog name you've ever heard?
• 4:50
  You know what I mean?
• 4:51
  I'm just yelling in the park.
• 4:52
  Dido.
• 4:53
  Dido.
• 4:54
  So this is the thing, like every day and every morning they bark, like you've never heard
• 4:58
  two dogs bark.
• 4:59
  Like and you just hear his mum outside, Dido, Toast, Shrata, so funny, you know, they've put
• 5:07
  the dogs in a field like over so that we can't hear them barking in the back of the podcast
• 5:13
  recording.
• 5:14
  And like you, you are so quiet, aren't you, me so?
• 5:16
  It's me so there.
• 5:17
  It's here.
• 5:18
  And me so.
• 5:19
  For anyone that does want to watch this episode on YouTube, Emily, our wonderful producers
• 5:24
  just said, we used to promote our YouTube hapes and we haven't lately.
• 5:27
  Can you please?
• 5:28
  And I thought, sure, because actually where I am right now, the lighting is looking great.
• 5:33
  I've positioned myself up by my country window.
• 5:37
  You can see inside the gorgeous little countryside home I'm in and fixing the studio in London.
• 5:41
  So if you would like to watch this as a video, we now record very high spec, don't we?
• 5:45
  You could always put it on and relax into it like it's a film.
• 5:48
  So, you know, there's that option.
• 5:51
  And you can even listen to us on 0.7 times if you want.
• 5:54
  Don't do that.
• 5:55
  Do not do that.
• 5:57
  We sound absolutely like we've had an abender for days.
• 6:02
  We have an update.
• 6:03
  Oh, God.
• 6:04
  I think this should be a bit of a running segment until, until it's not markets are out.
• 6:08
  Oh, yeah.
• 6:09
  Sorry.
• 6:10
  Oils down.
• 6:11
  Ceasifiers kind of probably happening.
• 6:13
  There seems to be an end in sight for the war, but maybe not.
• 6:16
  It changes every week.
• 6:18
  Earline stalks are up.
• 6:19
  So things are looking a bit more positive than last week, I would say.
• 6:24
  Oil fell by its biggest move in a day in like recent history and it was a fell about
• 6:30
  $20, so hopefully we are on the way.
• 6:34
  It's kind of an interesting one isn't it?
• 6:36
  So for anyone that saw, I mean, Trump, you know, put up that pretty horrendous outrageous
• 6:42
  post about essentially eradicating the entire population.
• 6:47
  I mean, I just was like, this is the president of the United States.
• 6:51
  What the hell is going on anyway?
• 6:53
  What flowed on from that was they're now in negotiations about hopefully the war stopping.
• 6:58
  And you literally as soon as that was announced, the stock market rebounded, didn't it?
• 7:03
  It was almost like instantaneous.
• 7:05
  I mean, whether or not the war stops, which obviously everyone hopes for, regardless
• 7:10
  of what it is doing to the economy, like for that to be over, would be such a relief.
• 7:16
  And yeah, and hopefully what we'll see roll out, but I don't know.
• 7:20
  I just wanted to hear your thoughts, Vic, on the idea that he's obviously trying to decrease
• 7:27
  oil prices.
• 7:28
  He's obviously trying to get access to the Strait of Hamas so that he can get oil for the
• 7:33
  US.
• 7:34
  And he obviously is wanting to manipulate the American stock market so that it's not plummeting
• 7:38
  like it was when we were last doing this podcast record.
• 7:41
  What do you think we're going to see play out in terms of the markets?
• 7:45
  I know we have no idea what Trump's going to do, but I don't know.
• 7:49
  Like the fact that airlines like Delta went up by 12% American airlines, 11% like that's
• 7:55
  a huge rebound of not even the war ending.
• 7:59
  I don't know.
• 8:00
  I just wanted to hear your thoughts on the whole thing.
• 8:02
  Yeah.
• 8:03
  I mean, those airlines have fallen massively, right?
• 8:05
  So 11%.
• 8:06
  It's a good sign, but it's not a huge move.
• 8:09
  Like markets are forward looking.
• 8:11
  So any indication of the opening up of the Strait of Hamas is like going to be positive
• 8:18
  for stock markets for the world for inflation.
• 8:21
  There is, and I actually, I actually was like talking to a guy who works for, you know,
• 8:28
  one of the biggest French oil companies in the world.
• 8:31
  And he's like, yeah, we all got evacuated out of the Middle East like.
• 8:36
  And now they're kind of slowly going back, but he's like, they've stopped all production.
• 8:40
  Like there is no war's over, cool, we go back to normal oil prices.
• 8:44
  He's like, this is going to take over three months once the war ends for the backlog for
• 8:50
  oil facilities that have been closed down to reopen for people to go back to the Middle
• 8:54
  East.
• 8:55
  Like, this is not like an overnight thing, but this is what I mean, markets are forward
• 8:58
  looking.
• 8:59
  So they know all that.
• 9:00
  And so it's like, if there is an end in sight, then the sheer price moves before everything
• 9:06
  else, economic wise, like in terms of inflation, in terms of, you know, actual goods and services,
• 9:12
  like the markets move first.
• 9:14
  So we've got like a lag when it comes to inflation, because inflation is the actual price of goods.
• 9:19
  And that takes time to get through the system, you know, oil prices increased.
• 9:23
  You know, let's take your lines, for example, airline prices go up, people feel the pinch,
• 9:28
  like that leads to inflation, like that's a lag, lagging indicator, which is what we call
• 9:33
  it.
• 9:34
  And then, yeah, like a forward indicator is things like the stock market.
• 9:37
  So it will end, will there it will be next week or next year?
• 9:43
  I don't know, but if it's next year, there's going to be some serious, serious pain.
• 9:48
  And I think that's what Donald Trump doesn't want happening, because it's going to impact
• 9:54
  not only the stock market, which he's, you know, very much aligned to doing well, but
• 9:59
  also for everyday consumers.
• 10:02
  So it's an everyone's best interest that the war ends.
• 10:06
  Let's say the war, they come to a ceasefire and, you know, the war is over and they've
• 10:13
  agreed on what's happening with the oil and who has access to water and that happens.
• 10:18
  But then we see this flow on, because even now if everything open back up, you're saying
• 10:23
  there's a three month lag, obviously, that's going to flow in so many ways.
• 10:27
  Is the stock market reacting, saying we already know that, but because there's an end
• 10:32
  in sight, we're comfortable that even though we're going to have to go through all of
• 10:36
  this turmoil and so many consumers and like, there'll be lack of access to oil for a long
• 10:40
  time, that's okay, because at least the war's over.
• 10:45
  And it's only short term.
• 10:46
  It's only a short term impact.
• 10:48
  I see.
• 10:49
  Like as in all those things, you're talking about flow on and not long term, but if the
• 10:52
  war continued for another nine months, the flow on from that could be so detrimental
• 10:56
  that the stock market reacts in a way that they're like, no, these impacts now are long
• 11:00
  term.
• 11:01
  Yeah.
• 11:02
  Okay.
• 11:03
  Yeah, spot on.
• 11:04
  It's like the stock market can look through, you know, a company's earnings or profits
• 11:08
  being impacted for, you know, one month, two months or quarter.
• 11:12
  But when this starts being more long term, more systemic starts, like businesses actually
• 11:17
  having to shut down, but you know, like that's more permanent stuff happening, you know,
• 11:20
  job cuts, like all of that starts happening, that's way more impactful and has more of
• 11:25
  a long term impact than the oil price just being high for a couple of months.
• 11:30
  One of the things I thought was quite interesting is the idea that, you know, in the last, I
• 11:34
  don't know if it's 12 months, but recently the European stock market was kind of doing
• 11:38
  quite well and now it's doing terribly, is that because they rely so much on power from
• 11:49
  offshore, like what's going on with that?
• 11:51
  Because I, you know, when we've been talking about, everyone's a bit worried about Trump
• 11:55
  and the stock market.
• 11:56
  So people have been diversifying to other stock markets and I don't know, I just, I'm not
• 12:02
  really sure what's going on there, but I, for people who may have diversified and gone,
• 12:06
  okay, I'm a bit scared of the US, I'm going to put money elsewhere.
• 12:09
  It was doing kind of well and now it's not so much what's there.
• 12:12
  So there's no European stock market just, just to me, there's, there's like, because Europe
• 12:17
  is, there's like Spain, France, you know, they've all got the individual, the UK stock market,
• 12:24
  there's a UK stock market and then there's like Asia was doing really well.
• 12:28
  So the Japanese career, though those stock markets were doing super, super well last, last
• 12:33
  year, end of last year, those countries are the most reliant on oil out of the Middle
• 12:39
  East.
• 12:40
  Oh, so it's not Europe, it's actually Asia.
• 12:42
  Yeah, and the UK as well.
• 12:43
  Okay.
• 12:44
  Because the UK is a very energy, hungry country and we don't have our own supply here,
• 12:50
  like UK growth forecasts, finesse share have been, have been slashed, we've had interest rates
• 12:56
  which are supposed to go down, have now been on hold.
• 12:59
  You've got to be really, really careful here because if we get into a period of what
• 13:03
  we call stagflation, which is when we've got low growth in countries, but high inflation,
• 13:11
  you kind of can't really do anything with interest rates because if you reduce them, inflation
• 13:15
  will take off.
• 13:16
  Oh, shit.
• 13:17
  If you increase them, that's going to impact the growth in the economy.
• 13:20
  So you're kind of like, what do we do?
• 13:22
  You've got to be so busy.
• 13:23
  They're really, really stressful and tough space to be in is in stagflation.
• 13:29
  And so that's kind of what they're trying to avoid with all this oil chat.
• 13:33
  Okay, okay, cool.
• 13:35
  And then the other thing that I wanted to ask you about is, we've spoken about this
• 13:40
  quite a bit like the polymarkets or Kelsey, you know, the alternative stock, not stock
• 13:46
  markets, sorry, like prediction markets where people are better, not got my language,
• 13:52
  but still the jury's out on whether this is betting or investing, but can we talk about
• 13:58
  what happened with potentially insider trading happening in this space?
• 14:04
  Because when I, when I saw a headline on this, I did a bit of digging and I was like,
• 14:09
  oh my god, this is, this is existed forever like this isn't just coming up because of
• 14:13
  the alternative market.
• 14:15
  So can you maybe just give an overview of what has happened with people making money
• 14:22
  on like the outcome of the war stopping and what, what that means?
• 14:28
  Yeah, well, it's kind of, I think when we were first talking about this, we spoke about
• 14:32
  the like, there's like a moral side, right?
• 14:34
  It's like, I'm going to make money off the war continuing, you know, like it's kind of
• 14:38
  like, oh, I'm going to make money off, you know, there's many people dying, like it's,
• 14:41
  horrible.
• 14:42
  And so effectively, people had made a lot of money on whether the ceasefire ended or didn't
• 14:49
  end, you know, like they're making a lot of money out of this, out of the war.
• 14:54
  And it just seems a bit morally, morally wrong.
• 14:57
  But then on the flip side, you can invest in defense stocks and make a lot of money off
• 15:02
  the back of war and people needing defense machinery and all of that.
• 15:06
  So it's kind of, you know, how is this different?
• 15:09
  But I don't know, yeah, there's, there's just been a lot of money that's been made around
• 15:12
  announcements to do with the, with the war and actions around the war.
• 15:18
  Or like just geopolitical movements or things happening and I, I think this is so interesting
• 15:23
  because, you know, we were talking, we've been talking the last few weeks about whether
• 15:26
  or not these production markets are betting and these two states in the US, Washington
• 15:33
  and Arizona, who are actually suing Kelsey, one of the alternative, like markets, because
• 15:41
  in one state, they're not allowed to bet on like the NBA or sports or any outcomes.
• 15:47
  So they're saying actually that Kelsey is breaking the law and allowing people to bet
• 15:51
  on sport and then the same and in Arizona, it was the idea of you're not allowed to make
• 15:55
  money or bet on elections because people were betting on who was going to win the Arizona
• 15:59
  elections.
• 16:01
  I just think it brings up a really interesting question around, and I know you've said
• 16:06
  this before, but around like the, how do you regulate something like this and is it
• 16:12
  the platform's fault, like are they the issue or actually is it just that they need to
• 16:16
  be regulation around like who can make money on what based on the information they have
• 16:22
  because if you're making money on when the ceasefire is going to end, do you have insider
• 16:29
  information and what's the difference between that and someone, you know, investing in
• 16:34
  Apple because they know that sales are going to go through the roof.
• 16:37
  Yeah, I guess that's the, that's the crux of it, right?
• 16:40
  It's if you have inside information, should you be able to trade in a production market
• 16:45
  and it's like surely the answer's no, right?
• 16:48
  But then how do you, like with a company reporting on the stock exchange, there is key people
• 16:55
  and you know to keep that information secret and it's just financial information, you
• 16:59
  know to keep that information secret if you're a key person of influence and therefore,
• 17:04
  you know, you can't inside a trade on that information, whereas the production markets
• 17:09
  are so broad, it can be pop culture, it can be the Oscars, it can be, you know, like it's
• 17:13
  not just financial information as a result of companies that are, that are public companies
• 17:18
  on the stock market, which is such a narrow thing to control and be like you're a CEO,
• 17:23
  you're a CFO, you know, you might be chief product officer or whatever, and investor
• 17:28
  relations.
• 17:29
  So you guys, you guys are the key people that, if this information leaks, it's on you
• 17:33
  and also that means that you have to release it quickly to the public and it's like where
• 17:37
  does it stop in terms of how do you regulate?
• 17:40
  Totally.
• 17:41
  Because if you take a regular sports betting platform, you know, there might be someone
• 17:45
  that's friends with LeBron James and he knows he's injured and he's going to lose the
• 17:50
  Lakers game or whatever, that's inside information, in my opinion.
• 17:54
  But like, do you know what I mean, like where do you draw the line?
• 17:57
  Yeah, but I think that's exactly what I mean.
• 17:59
  I just think it's so weird that we can have such strict and clever regulations around
• 18:04
  business who can and can't inside a trade.
• 18:07
  But then why are we not having the same, why can't we put parameters in place so that
• 18:10
  people can and can't invest or vote or whatever on outcomes where that obviously prevent
• 18:17
  information?
• 18:18
  Like there was a case in like 2024, I was reading about and there was like 15 people
• 18:23
  that essentially bet on the outcome, like some political outcome in the UK and someone
• 18:30
  sniffed a rat and like said, this is there's something dodgy going on here and then they
• 18:35
  did an investigation and now all those people are being charged, why can we not have the
• 18:39
  same type of regulation around all this other stuff?
• 18:42
  Political politics and business, there's these key defining events, right?
• 18:46
  Whereas if you think of having to regulate every sports game around the world, you know,
• 18:52
  like reporting season in the US is like key periods of time, like there's, you know, like
• 18:57
  and you can see trades and you can see people that have made them and you can see, I don't
• 19:01
  know, like I think it's just you wouldn't be able to police every and then there's still
• 19:05
  there's still people that inside a trade in the stock market, you know, and they think
• 19:09
  that there's ones that get away with it and there's ones that don't, you can only police
• 19:13
  I guess the cost versus the benefit, right?
• 19:15
  The cost of policing, sports betting platforms, prediction markets, all of that versus,
• 19:20
  you know, the AC impact on society, it's quite interesting.
• 19:23
  Yeah, no, it is, it is, it is very interesting and it's like, it differently blows the lines,
• 19:28
  right?
• 19:29
  Because it's like, you can invest in defense companies and make lots of money off the
• 19:32
  back of when war breaks out, but you can't participate in a prediction of when the war's
• 19:37
  going to end, you know, like if that was kind of how it was going to go down, but also
• 19:42
  I've been looking at the prediction markets to see when, when is the, when, when do people
• 19:46
  think the war is going to end?
• 19:48
  You know, I've been using it as an information gathering tool for like, okay, what is the
• 19:53
  most expected release of Tesla cars in X quarter, like all of that kind of stuff?
• 19:59
  I'm not using it as like a make money tool, but as an information gathering, it's, you
• 20:03
  know, as they get bigger and bigger, they could actually help sway investing decisions
• 20:09
  in a roundabout way, if that makes sense.
• 20:12
  I think it's like, it's innovative and like a lot of things, you know, like they pivot
• 20:15
  this regulation, they see an opportunity, then regulation comes in, they pivot something
• 20:19
  else.
• 20:20
  I don't know.
• 20:21
  Yeah, it's always adapting and evolving and well, speaking of that, Victoria Harris, that's
• 20:26
  quite a good segue to this next story with Universal Music as well, because it's almost
• 20:31
  like kind of an innovative asset class.
• 20:34
  So yes, so Universal Music is, it's been taken over essentially, well, there's been a
• 20:41
  bid for it.
• 20:42
  It's not never done these things always take so long, but yes, Universal Music has had
• 20:46
  a takeover offer.
• 20:47
  So Universal Music, they're the record label that own the rights to Taylor Swift, Drake,
• 20:54
  Billy Eilers, like tons of tons of artists that we know, and they like the infrastructure
• 20:59
  that allows artists to distribute and monetize their music, they're one of the biggest music
• 21:04
  companies in the world.
• 21:05
  And the why there is a takeover offer and so much interest in this is like, it's a
• 21:10
  sexually royalty stream on music.
• 21:14
  So when Eilers Swift song is played, if it's on Spotify, if it's on an ad on TV, then
• 21:23
  a little bit of money goes back to Universal Music.
• 21:28
  And so the more good artists that they have, the bigger their backlog of artists, like
• 21:35
  old songs that research and get used for ads and media campaigns and stuff, that little
• 21:43
  bit of revenue goes back to Universal Music.
• 21:45
  And so it's an incredible business model.
• 21:50
  And as Spotify gets bigger and bigger, and the access to music is made much more easy
• 21:56
  for people that just goes straight into Universal Music's pocket.
• 22:02
  It's almost like if you thought of other assets, like a dividend where you own it and
• 22:08
  then it pays you a little bit of money or owning rental property and it pays you rental
• 22:14
  income.
• 22:15
  Is the idea of an asset constantly kind of paying out or like, I don't know, like trailing
• 22:20
  revenue?
• 22:22
  Because if you, because yeah, I guess the idea here is that if all these artists, like
• 22:26
  if Taylor Swift and Billie Eilersion Drake and all of these amazing artists continue to
• 22:31
  produce music, and then their music is hosted on these platforms and there's always a cart
• 22:37
  like a royalty that goes back into Universal.
• 22:41
  It's like, they just sit there and clip the ticket.
• 22:43
  It's almost like guaranteed revenue, isn't it?
• 22:45
  It's like, they don't have to do anything.
• 22:47
  It's like passing.
• 22:48
  Yeah.
• 22:49
  And it's, yeah, as Spotify gets bigger, as YouTube gets bigger, doesn't matter what platform
• 22:52
  people listen to the music.
• 22:54
  They don't really care about that.
• 22:55
  They don't, you know, like the distribution, if that just continues to grow, that's great
• 23:00
  for them.
• 23:01
  It doesn't matter what platform.
• 23:02
  So yeah, they're sitting in a pretty, pretty sweet spot.
• 23:05
  But this was actually a company that was spun out of a big French media company on the
• 23:12
  five years ago and listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange.
• 23:18
  And this is why it's had a takeover offer because the person that's taken it over, he has
• 23:22
  about a 10% stake and he has a huge fund.
• 23:26
  So he has an investment company that it takes large stakes in public companies.
• 23:32
  And he has owned 10% of Universal for a while and there is one big French billionaire
• 23:39
  shareholder in there who he's trying to get across the line to make changes.
• 23:44
  But one of the big changes is that he wants to move the listing from Amsterdam to the
• 23:51
  US because he thinks being an Amsterdam is a disadvantage.
• 23:55
  There's not enough investors and not enough interest.
• 23:58
  If you put it on like a main stock exchange, like the New York Stock Exchange or the NAS
• 24:02
  deck, then it's going to get a lot more interest.
• 24:04
  It's going to be valued a lot better.
• 24:05
  The share price will go up like all of that stuff.
• 24:07
  So he just thinks it's been a bit of a forgotten child and when you do takeover a business
• 24:13
  or make a takeover offer, you usually state like these are the reasons why I think it
• 24:18
  can do better.
• 24:19
  And you're trying to sell that to shareholders, right?
• 24:20
  You're trying to sell the dream of like, look, if we move it to the US and we do this and
• 24:25
  we do that, you know, your share price could triple in value and then you're like, yeah,
• 24:31
  okay, cool.
• 24:32
  Oh, yeah, okay, let's do it.
• 24:34
  I'll do that.
• 24:35
  I just wanted to ask Vic, because this is a hedge fund you said, right?
• 24:40
  Yeah.
• 24:41
  And normally hedge funds make quite high returns.
• 24:44
  The whole point is they're sort of like hedging their bets, right?
• 24:47
  So they're aiming for higher returns, like 12% 15, like quite high.
• 24:51
  Oh no, they're like hundreds of percent returns.
• 24:54
  Yeah.
• 24:55
  Wow.
• 24:56
  It depends, right?
• 24:57
  Good ones.
• 24:58
  Because you're going with a hedge fund.
• 24:59
  The reason it's called a hedge fund is because you can go long or you can go short and
• 25:03
  that means that you can buy shares in a business and do well when it does well.
• 25:07
  Or you can effectively own shares in a business and do well when it doesn't do well.
• 25:13
  So they can go either way.
• 25:15
  And so it's like amplifying good or bad returns.
• 25:18
  It's kind of like, yeah.
• 25:19
  Yeah.
• 25:20
  And you take, like a hedge fund, you take very risky bets.
• 25:22
  Like this guy, he has a 10% share holding in a $60 billion company.
• 25:29
  So they're making, you know, this is a $6 billion share holding.
• 25:32
  Like they're making big, chunky decisions when they make these moves.
• 25:36
  And they go kind of all in on a few things, you know, they don't diversify around a lot.
• 25:43
  But they'll buy a share, they'll buy a position in a company and then do something like this
• 25:48
  where they create, you know, multiple times more value, but they get in there if that makes
• 25:53
  sense.
• 25:54
  Like and actually.
• 25:55
  But that's kind of, I guess that's sort of my point is, you know, when you're talking
• 25:58
  about universal and it's steady revenue, the idea that you're clipping a ticket on all
• 26:02
  of these artists music, like that all makes sense to me.
• 26:05
  But it almost baffles me that they think, or I'd love to know, I guess like your thoughts
• 26:11
  on, they're obviously buying this because they think they can get better returns in universal
• 26:15
  than other big risky bets.
• 26:18
  Like what, what are they seeing here that in terms of a bigger trend and like why is it
• 26:23
  that they're choosing this company?
• 26:25
  Yeah, a lot of companies that are listed or public can not be valued, right?
• 26:31
  So they could be like, people are missing, they're missing something or they're like, there's
• 26:35
  this really great product that nobody actually realises that great or they've got this huge
• 26:39
  opportunity, but the CEO doesn't want to take advantage of it.
• 26:42
  You know, there's so many things within companies.
• 26:44
  And so this is what he's trying to do.
• 26:46
  Bill Ekman is the guy and he is trying to say, look, being listed in Amsterdam is doing
• 26:51
  you a complete disadvantage, like there are so many people in the US that would invest
• 26:56
  in you if you were listed in a US stock exchange.
• 27:00
  You're also then compared to US companies, right?
• 27:03
  So you're compared to similar companies with higher valuations.
• 27:06
  So therefore, you know, as a byproduct of that, you're valued at a higher price.
• 27:12
  He's also saying that people don't appreciate the relationship that universal has with Spotify.
• 27:18
  And people don't appreciate the, you're right, the opportunity here.
• 27:22
  And so part of his role would be either getting a CEO in there that can really, you know,
• 27:28
  drive things and make it better, or I guess selling it to shareholders that this is actually
• 27:34
  an incredible business.
• 27:35
  You know, you don't understand, they could do this, this, this, and like the Spotify
• 27:38
  stake and like all of this, like, yeah, there's so many things.
• 27:41
  But I just, like, if you heard that though, if, for example, this has gone public,
• 27:45
  everyone knows his business plan and the reasons why he thinks he can make more money
• 27:50
  through this business, if he buys it, why wouldn't the existing shareholders CEO, etc.
• 27:57
  Just take on what he's saying.
• 27:58
  And if they think it's a good idea, do it themselves.
• 28:01
  They could.
• 28:02
  Yeah, but he's already made a takeover off for now.
• 28:04
  So the shareholders will be like, well, hang on.
• 28:06
  Why didn't you do it then?
• 28:07
  If you could, if you thought these ideas were great, we've been sitting here for years.
• 28:11
  Ah, so people just like lose trust in the existing.
• 28:14
  Yeah.
• 28:15
  And it's kind of just like, it's like that, it's like that movie, um, oh my God,
• 28:23
  what's that one where she like is the super geek and then that popular guy dates
• 28:27
  her and like gives her a glow up, put it and then she comes down there.
• 28:31
  Never been cast.
• 28:32
  Oh, no, it's the one.
• 28:33
  Oh my God.
• 28:34
  And she's like coming down the stairs, people were like screaming.
• 28:37
  Oh my God, what is it?
• 28:38
  She's all that you would remember.
• 28:40
  I've not seen that movie.
• 28:41
  You would so remember.
• 28:43
  In a minute, she's like, he has this deer about taking her to the prom,
• 28:46
  which is kind of like the storyline.
• 28:47
  And we've been very nice.
• 28:48
  Oh, yes, yes, yes.
• 28:50
  And anyway, she's like this geeky artist and then she comes down, she's had a glow up.
• 28:54
  And it's like, it's kind of like, you could not realize your potential for ages
• 28:59
  until someone else kind of like makes you realize it if that makes sense.
• 29:03
  So it's such a funny analogy.
• 29:06
  You know, it's like, you're the same product.
• 29:08
  Sorry, you're the same company.
• 29:09
  It's just, you've just been someone's put you on a pedestal.
• 29:13
  Yeah, you've just had a little bit of a glow up and look, look at her hair.
• 29:16
  Look at her outfit.
• 29:17
  Yeah, I realized your potential.
• 29:19
  Exactly.
• 29:19
  Yeah.
• 29:20
  So basically this guy, the takeover guy, is almost like the heart.
• 29:24
  He's Freddie Prince Jr.
• 29:25
  Yeah, he's Freddie Prince Jr.
• 29:27
  And he's basically said, you guys are all idiots for not wanting to take universal to the prom.
• 29:33
  Yeah.
• 29:33
  I actually think if we did X, she is a hot, hot, hot, and then
• 29:39
  and if we did all these little things, the glow up would be massive
• 29:43
  and all of you would be so, so impressed, like trust me.
• 29:47
  Okay, and so then basically the idea is that the shareholders,
• 29:50
  because he's offered a bid, the shareholders are like, okay, he knows what he's talking about.
• 29:55
  So I'm going to take that offer, rather than, you know,
• 29:58
  trying to still a date with her themselves.
• 30:00
  Yeah.
• 30:01
  And there might be someone else that comes out of the woodwork and, you know,
• 30:04
  it could be Channing Tatum that's like, hang on,
• 30:07
  I reckon I can make her even hotter.
• 30:09
  Yeah.
• 30:10
  Okay, right.
• 30:11
  The other thing I feel is quite interesting just to point out is,
• 30:14
  you were just talking earlier in this podcast about innovation and like,
• 30:17
  innovation with investing and thinking about things differently.
• 30:21
  I do think that this is a really good example of that.
• 30:23
  No one really used to think of music.
• 30:26
  It was more art than an asset class.
• 30:29
  It's just kind of interesting to see, you know, like digital art become an asset.
• 30:33
  Yes.
• 30:34
  Now, real music become an asset and there's just so many, like,
• 30:38
  little innovations, I think, and that's making investing in general way more interesting.
• 30:44
  It's not just invest in the stock market.
• 30:45
  There's actually so many other ways you can put money into something that could grow in value.
• 30:49
  Yes.
• 30:50
  And I think there's, like, there's such a tension here.
• 30:53
  Like, in the music industry specifically, it's like,
• 30:56
  Spotify controls the distribution and the discovery, right?
• 31:00
  The algorithms, like, all of that is like, you're at the mercy of Spotify, really.
• 31:04
  It's the number one player.
• 31:07
  But Universal holds most of the content, you know,
• 31:11
  it's the largest player in terms of all the content, in terms of the actual music,
• 31:15
  the licensing and all of that.
• 31:17
  So what I see, and it might not be in the near term,
• 31:20
  but I definitely think what will start happening is you start getting,
• 31:24
  I mean, we've seen it happen with the likes of Netflix wanting to buy Warner Brothers.
• 31:29
  In the media space, people are growing vertically.
• 31:34
  They're wanting to control everything from, you know, not only the content,
• 31:38
  but the distribution, but like everything.
• 31:41
  And I mean, if I was Spotify, I'd be sitting here going, hang on a second.
• 31:46
  This could be, we should buy Universal.
• 31:48
  This could be a perfect opportunity for us to chime in and like, you know,
• 31:52
  but then you've got regulators, you know, if you control the biggest music company
• 31:56
  with the biggest distributor, like artists would have probably, you know, kittens.
• 32:00
  So it's like, yeah, you do have to be a bit careful.
• 32:02
  And there's probably companies that you just can't outright buy,
• 32:06
  but you may as well have sugar short.
• 32:07
  It's also so interesting though,
• 32:09
  because like the whole discoverability thing,
• 32:10
  it used to be so powerful to people.
• 32:13
  You know, and if someone's listening to some random artists in the middle of like
• 32:17
  that created their song, the backyard of Iceland and, you know,
• 32:20
  and then the song pops off,
• 32:22
  whereas there is so much more selection and curation around what people hear
• 32:27
  and how they hear it and play listen, blah, blah, blah.
• 32:30
  So if you were then creating music internally, of course,
• 32:34
  you're going to then push that music on your platform, you know,
• 32:37
  it kind of changes the whole premise of online streaming, doesn't it?
• 32:41
  And also it's like, it's funny because you do think that you're like,
• 32:44
  oh, I'm discovering this new artist and like, you know, you think,
• 32:47
  and it's like, no, no, no, that's been curated and fed to your hot hits
• 32:50
  New Zealand and Australia.
• 32:52
  Yeah, it's like, oh my God, on TikTok, I learned this new thing.
• 32:55
  It's like, no, no, no, they wanted you to see that.
• 32:57
  Like, you think you're being so independent, am I?
• 33:00
  I hate it.
• 33:01
  We're just, we're absolute poins.
• 33:03
  We're absolute emmings.
• 33:04
  Yeah, yeah.
• 33:05
  One other, I guess, trend we've spoken about to the cows come home,
• 33:11
  but this just really fascinates me because I think it's just how much it is
• 33:15
  permeating into other areas and having other impacts
• 33:19
  than I ever, ever thought were possible.
• 33:22
  I'm so interested in this whole topic, too.
• 33:24
  I think that you're right.
• 33:26
  It's like, what we thought was a conversation about X has turned into a conversation
• 33:31
  about the entire alphabet.
• 33:32
  Totally, yeah, exactly.
• 33:34
  And it's really interesting because it's got me thinking,
• 33:36
  well, what are we not seeing?
• 33:38
  You know, what is the next thing?
• 33:40
  And it's like, yes, what we're seeing happen unfold now.
• 33:44
  We haven't even told people what we're talking about.
• 33:46
  I love that we're like speaking in code.
• 33:48
  I was like, what trend?
• 33:49
  What are we talking about?
• 33:50
  It's the GLP1 trend.
• 33:52
  We had an announcement this week that Eli Lilly, which is one of the biggest GLP1 manufacturers,
• 33:59
  has released a pill form.
• 34:02
  So previously you had to inject yourself and now you can take a pill for these weight
• 34:08
  lost drugs.
• 34:09
  I mean, think about the amount of people that wouldn't go near an injection for so many
• 34:15
  reasons.
• 34:16
  I mean, this just opens up the most.
• 34:18
  It's almost like making it so mainstream and so accessible.
• 34:23
  But yeah, I do worry with the pill form.
• 34:25
  It does open up to a whole lot of people that you're right wouldn't have wanted to do
• 34:29
  an injection.
• 34:30
  But Eli Lilly is the kind of the second player that's come out of the woodwork and has
• 34:38
  just like absolutely roofed it.
• 34:41
  And Nova Nordis, who was the poster child for GLP1, drugs has just like absolutely fallen
• 34:47
  off a cliff.
• 34:48
  And now, you know, releasing a pill form, it's just like salt in the wound.
• 34:52
  Like Nova Nordis is kind of, yeah, absolutely arsonese.
• 34:55
  But that was also one of the most like, wasn't that one of the highest performing stocks
• 34:58
  last year?
• 34:59
  It was, it was in 2024, yeah, huge, but the trend on back of this trend is ultra beauty,
• 35:08
  which is one of the biggest, you know, beauty chains in the US, kind of like Sephora and
• 35:13
  Mekka.
• 35:14
  They've come out.
• 35:16
  And sorry, as it's not funny, but it's just like I'm, it's just how everything's been
• 35:20
  impacted by these GLP1 drugs is crazy.
• 35:23
  And they're saying that hair loss and skin elasticity caused by rapid weight loss has
• 35:28
  driven a surge in demand for a lot of their beauty treatments.
• 35:32
  And they're just saying this overwhelming, God, demand for their products and those specific
• 35:37
  products in their stores.
• 35:39
  So it's kind of, but I mean, think about it.
• 35:42
  If you lose a lot of weight, you're going to have a lot of excess scandal.
• 35:45
  You are, it makes total sense.
• 35:49
  I mean, how annoying to then have to deal with two new issues, i.e. going bald, and also
• 35:54
  like, wouldn't cling before your time, but of course, like it makes so much sense.
• 35:59
  And like, we spoke a few weeks ago around the whole extended, you know, people wanting
• 36:03
  to extend their, their life, it'd be a lot more like active and, and healthy in that kind
• 36:09
  of 20, 30, 40 year old age group, like you throw this on top of it, ultra beauty is just
• 36:15
  sitting there going to change, stunning, pile in everyone.
• 36:20
  We've got what you need for school, what you need for hair, come here, GLP1 is come here,
• 36:25
  you know, old women still trying to be young and trying to, yeah, it's like come here,
• 36:29
  people try to extend their lives.
• 36:30
  It's honestly, they must be there in such a sweet spot.
• 36:33
  Well, that's why you see every famous person right now, every influencer launching a skincare
• 36:37
  brand and a, you know, like, it's because the market is huge, the demand is there.
• 36:42
  I think it's really, you know, I fully agree with you going from injection to pill kind of
• 36:48
  scares me, who else is going to be jumping on this that doesn't need it, but also the fact
• 36:53
  that only 6% of obese people in America are using it, there's obviously people who are scared
• 37:00
  either of injection or like it doesn't feel accessible.
• 37:02
  I mean, I know a lot of people who actually, and I mean older people, friends of parents
• 37:06
  that probably should use it for health reasons, but don't.
• 37:10
  So maybe this is a good thing for people that need the weight loss drug, but
• 37:14
  and I'm kind of hopeful that like with anything right, like, and this is my hope, this is not
• 37:20
  based on any research or anything, but, you know, when something new and exciting comes
• 37:27
  to the market, there is a bit of a, like, a bit of a craze, everyone gets like excited
• 37:33
  or kind of overindexes on something, like if we think about when they reduce the drinking
• 37:37
  age, right, everyone's like, oh my god, amazing, I can go like, and everyone gets absolutely
• 37:41
  totaled, and then there's like almost like a calmness of like, okay, actually it's not
• 37:46
  cool, no, we need to be really drinking responsibly, and I'm just hoping that maybe this euphoria
• 37:52
  and, you know, all the media and all the attention on this is just part of the process,
• 37:58
  and we get to a point where it's actually like being used for what it's supposed to be used for,
• 38:03
  and it's not cool, and it's not, you know, like, and there's just a bit of a like, uh-huh moment.
• 38:08
  We're having a hype moment. She's hoping.
• 38:11
  I, it's so interesting, I saw this story about, did you, have you heard, maybe you've all
• 38:15
  over it, but there was this guy, Matthew Gallagher, who was a founder of like a
• 38:20
  telehealth care startup, and it was basically marketing the gelp1 drug, and they started,
• 38:27
  he started like $20, you know, he had no employees, he made like over 400 million in revenue last
• 38:33
  year, but he didn't like build the drug, he didn't have clinics, it was all basically marketing,
• 38:39
  you know, like, he had these incredible marketing layers where he was essential, and he's now
• 38:45
  being done for like, you know, like AI generated ads that actually were misleading, and you know,
• 38:50
  false marketing claims and blah, blah, blah, but to me saying that just is, it's so obvious,
• 38:57
  the market for people who still want to be skinny or want to have access to, you know, like the,
• 39:03
  the fact that he doesn't even really have a business, he was just a marketing place.
• 39:08
  Well, it's like when there's big opportunities, people take advantage, right?
• 39:12
  COVID with, you know, hand sanitizer, people who, he never made hand sanitizers before,
• 39:17
  were like, you know what, I think it's a hand sanitizer for 50 bucks. This is my limit.
• 39:22
  You know, people get opportunistic, and when there's such hype and there's such demand,
• 39:27
  it's right for people taking advantage, so yeah.
• 39:30
  It'd be so interesting to see like how or what regulation we put in place as well around
• 39:34
  like the marketing and what you can and can't say, and like images you can and can't use in the
• 39:39
  ages of people that are in that marketing, because I think, yeah, they'll have to be so careful to,
• 39:45
  yeah, not make it look even more appealing to people who don't need it.
• 39:48
  Yeah, it's like advertising a financial product, you know, can't guarantee returns or weight loss,
• 39:55
  you know, and there's always risks that it's actually a good, it's a good analogy,
• 39:59
  because it's also like high risk is not necessarily good for everyone, or low risk is not
• 40:04
  necessarily good for everyone. It's, yeah, it'll be interesting.
• 40:13
  Yeah, look, we're about to have another Netflix drama hit the screens, the stock market,
• 40:19
  hit the news, hit the screens, yeah.
• 40:22
  At what point they're going to start a Netflix docker about all of the shit going on in their business?
• 40:27
  Oh, they've got to. I mean, surely there's a producer internally that's like, this is
• 40:32
  done in documentary making. It just continues to evolve though. They're probably like,
• 40:36
  oh, and that's a season finale. Oh, no, no, no, it's still going still going.
• 40:40
  That's the perfect type of totally. Yeah, and we're up to season 27.
• 40:44
  So what's happening in today's installment of our Netflix docker?
• 40:48
  We have a trial that's about to start in a few weeks time. On the 27th of April,
• 40:54
  we have Elon Musk Sewing Open AI, which owns Chaturvy T. It is Elon Musk Sewing Open AI for
• 41:02
  about 100 billion in damages because he initially invested in Open AI when it was a not-for-profit,
• 41:10
  and then they changed to a four-profit structure, and he's saying that there is compensation for that.
• 41:17
  Also, he has a little bit in his bonnet because he's got his own AI company.
• 41:21
  And so it was literally about to say that. Open AI is saying, like, piss off. This is just a
• 41:26
  distraction tactic. Like, you've just pissed off that we are doing so well, and run, run, run, run,
• 41:32
  and so. But anyway, Elon is also saying that all the winnings that he gets from the outcome
• 41:40
  of this court case, he'll give to Charity. So he does have a little bit of that.
• 41:44
  I know, but that's just not. I totally think he knows that he's behind in his research.
• 41:52
  You know, is it Grog? Grog is obviously not doing as well. He's trying to distract
• 41:58
  them so that they have to spend all this money on this giant lawsuit, and he's wanting as much
• 42:03
  PR for this case as possible. And so he's saying, I'm going to donate this to Charity. He's got a
• 42:08
  good heart. As if that's not the most self-serving thing ever. Let's not pretend that you care
• 42:14
  about Charity. I would hate to go up against Elon Musk in a court case. He has the most endless
• 42:19
  pockets of anyone on the planet. I mean, you could win any case. Yeah, I'd be like, okay,
• 42:25
  yeah, which is, I don't know. He's got so much on as well. He's got a SpaceX IPO coming. He's
• 42:30
  still CEO of Tesla. He's got this court case. He's got his... But surely he's just like someone
• 42:35
  just deal with this court case. Distract them, make them use heaps of money so that it slows them
• 42:39
  down. I don't know. I think sometimes, well, maybe it's the more that I've learned about the stock
• 42:44
  market and like politics and how intertwined all the stuff is. There's so much beneath the surface
• 42:50
  with all of the stuff that's the headlines. It's ego. It's ego. It's trying to get the biggest
• 42:56
  most expensive company. I mean, it's fun for lawyers working on these deals. They get paid.
• 43:00
  It's also fun to watch. Like I'm not complaining. So yes, in a few weeks, this will all start
• 43:07
  unfolding and we'll keep you live updates, not live. Do you think Elon will be showing up to court?
• 43:13
  How is this even going to work? Is it going to be Sam Altman, like, you know, OpenAI and Elon Musk
• 43:17
  actually in court? Like... Probably. To some points of it, yeah. Hopefully we get like clips,
• 43:23
  you know, like media clips and we can... He'll go off in a tangent and say something about
• 43:27
  you're like, he's kind of a bit Kanye Westk, you know, I was just like, what are you going to say?
• 43:32
  I don't actually know what you're going to say, you know, like nothing really makes sense.
• 43:35
  He just fascinates me like a hate that he fascinates me. It makes me really annoyed that I care
• 43:40
  about it, but I just can't help but be interested. But someone said they're like, you couldn't have
• 43:44
  a normal person achieve what he's achieved in a lifetime. So he has to be a bit, a bit weird.
• 43:49
  Bonkers. Absolutely bonkers. Okay, so we put out to the community last week, Vic, about what should we
• 43:56
  do about this 30 episode that we're about to introduce? Like, should we do Monday, Wednesday,
• 44:00
  Friday or do Monday, Thursday, Friday or whatever? And anyway, would the polls come in?
• 44:06
  71% of people want to do Monday, Wednesday, Friday, which is just great news. I feel like that's
• 44:11
  probably best for us internally too. But if anyone has any issues with this, imagine that we're at
• 44:17
  the altar, the wedding, you know, speak now, if you ever hold your peace. Yeah, we're going to
• 44:21
  three episodes, which is super exciting. And yeah, I think, unless anyone's got any major issues
• 44:27
  with this, consider it decided. Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Okay, watch the space everyone. Thank
• 44:32
  you so much for those who voted this Thursday on Raising the Curve. I am talking about my second
• 44:40
  investment, the one that I did with Peter West. So I've been kind of breadcrumbing this for ages
• 44:46
  and not really given any context for like how I did it, what happened. So we're going to release that
• 44:51
  on Thursday this week. So if you're interested in learning more about that, like subscribe to the
• 44:58
  podcast. But yeah, have a great week, everyone. And thanks for our research for your worries.
• 45:06
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• 45:13
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• 45:21
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  chat about all things money. We're also around all week on socials if you're hungry for more
• 45:29
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• 45:33
  for the next episode of The Curve Weekly on Monday. Okay, quickly, the curve was created to empower
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• 46:10
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