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Keep Hope Alive - Short Session Begins · Crosstabs

0:16
SPEAKER_00: No, I'm pulling the notes.
0:20
SPEAKER_00: The notes.
0:21
SPEAKER_00: All right.
0:22
SPEAKER_00: I do like the tree in the background.
0:24
SPEAKER_00: You have learned a lot about farm stands, Reagan.
0:26
SPEAKER_00: You're going to become a farmer, I think, one day.
0:28
I think that's the...
0:29
I mean,
0:29
bigger than your little hobby farm that you have.
0:31
SPEAKER_00: I have made...
0:33
SPEAKER_01: No, listen, I made this very clear.
0:35
SPEAKER_01: I own horses.
0:35
SPEAKER_01: I do not.
0:36
SPEAKER_01: I do not claim to be a farmer.
0:38
SPEAKER_01: I do not claim to be a rancher.
0:40
SPEAKER_01: I couldn't even tell you what the differences are.
0:42
Ryan,
0:43
frankly,
0:43
I can't tell you the difference between a rancher and a farmer.
0:45
SPEAKER_01: I had cows.
0:46
SPEAKER_01: Did that make me a rancher?
0:47
SPEAKER_01: I had two of them.
0:48
SPEAKER_01: Now they're in the freezer.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think, you know, the difference is, is you can be both.
0:54
So because if you farm something,
0:56
that means you actually grow something to sell it.
0:59
SPEAKER_00: Right.
0:59
SPEAKER_00: So that's that's the farmer.
1:02
SPEAKER_00: And then if you're a rancher, you tend to have cows.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: So and you tend to do grazing and you tend to do things like that.
1:10
SPEAKER_00: So you can be both.
1:11
Some people like to just classify a rancher and some people
1:14
like to just classify a farmer.
1:16
Usually it's east side of the mountains versus west side of the
1:20
mountains.
1:21
SPEAKER_01: So since I live on the west side of the mountains, I would be a farmer.
1:24
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, who does some rancher?
1:28
SPEAKER_01: Like, we own a ranch that does some farming, right?
1:33
I think it's clear as mud,
1:34
frankly,
1:34
just like a lot of our farming statutes.
1:38
SPEAKER_00: Oh, geez.
1:38
Just like it seems like most of the bills and stuff in session
1:41
right now,
1:42
right?
1:42
SPEAKER_00: So...
1:44
SPEAKER_00: It's crazy.
1:45
SPEAKER_00: Everything is clear as mud.
1:47
SPEAKER_00: So here we go.
1:48
SPEAKER_00: Off to the races.
1:49
SPEAKER_00: We're two days in on,
1:52
SPEAKER_00: I was going to say special session,
1:55
SPEAKER_00: on short session,
1:56
SPEAKER_00: and we're just bombing away.
1:57
SPEAKER_00: So lots has happened.
2:00
SPEAKER_00: What's going on on your end?
2:02
SPEAKER_01: Well, here's, I think overall, so we start with the overall picture.
2:05
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
2:06
SPEAKER_01: The tough part about special session was,
2:08
SPEAKER_01: and I think we talked about this,
2:10
SPEAKER_01: is it felt like we just unpaused the very end of long session.
2:13
SPEAKER_01: And I don't know if you remember the very end of long session.
2:15
SPEAKER_01: No one's particularly happy.
2:18
SPEAKER_01: And I felt like that came through in the special session here.
2:21
SPEAKER_01: We've had the reset.
2:23
SPEAKER_01: We've had the work groups.
2:24
SPEAKER_01: We've had a couple of interim days.
2:25
SPEAKER_01: People have drafted their bills.
2:27
SPEAKER_01: There's new hope in the air, Brian.
2:29
SPEAKER_01: And people are once again trying to get their bills passed.
2:32
SPEAKER_01: And so now they're nice again.
2:34
SPEAKER_01: Right.
2:34
SPEAKER_01: Not all their bills are dead.
2:36
SPEAKER_01: Not yet.
2:36
SPEAKER_01: Anyways.
2:37
SPEAKER_01: Right.
2:38
um there's still hope alive in the air and that i think is what
2:41
makes it feel a
2:42
little bit fresh and new and not as ugly as as a special
2:46
session or the end of a
2:47
session so i think that is the table setting here where we've
2:50
got a new table
2:51
that's been set some of the same issues are back some of the
2:53
same dishes are here
2:55
SPEAKER_01: we had i i heard uh leader elmer talking about setting a table and
2:58
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, a menu that can make you sick or pass out or whatnot.
3:02
SPEAKER_01: So I'm continuing that narrative here.
3:04
SPEAKER_01: A new table set.
3:05
SPEAKER_01: Some of the same dishes are back, but there's also new stuff.
3:07
And so if you didn't like the old stuff,
3:09
you can kind of get involved in some of the new stuff.
3:12
SPEAKER_01: So that's what I kind of think.
3:14
SPEAKER_01: It's a little better in that sense.
3:17
SPEAKER_00: That's good.
3:18
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
3:18
SPEAKER_00: no,
3:19
SPEAKER_00: I think we're kind of off and running over here in the Senate,
3:22
SPEAKER_00: and things are going pretty quick.
3:25
SPEAKER_00: But I think the good part about short session is stuff dies quick, too.
3:31
SPEAKER_00: So things are either – it's either moving or it's dead.
3:35
SPEAKER_00: So it's good to – from that standpoint, it's good.
3:38
SPEAKER_00: It's bad if it's your bill that's dead.
3:39
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
3:41
Every day that you get bumped on a hearing or anything like
3:45
that is a day closer to
3:46
SPEAKER_00: your death as a bill.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: But there's not a whole bunch of bills.
3:50
The biggest turmoil yesterday was probably just the craziness
3:54
in the House
3:57
SPEAKER_00: Judiciary,
3:59
SPEAKER_00: which is normally safe for Senate Judiciary.
4:01
SPEAKER_00: But apparently,
4:02
Rob Krupp has decided to take up the Measure 114 banner and run
4:06
with it some more.
4:07
SPEAKER_00: Again, with Measure 114.
4:10
It's nice of him to lighten the load for Senate Judiciary and
4:14
Senator Perzanski and
4:15
SPEAKER_01: those folks over there.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: I have been ignoring that as much as possible.
4:20
I'm sure that that will be relevant on the floor at some point
4:23
if it does escape committee.
4:25
SPEAKER_01: But luckily, I don't have to care about that yet.
4:27
SPEAKER_01: And that's the key, too.
4:28
SPEAKER_01: I was talking to a lot of people.
4:29
SPEAKER_01: You just have to choose what you're going to care about, right?
4:32
I think that's the hardest thing about leadership is you almost
4:34
kind of have to
4:35
SPEAKER_01: have a pulse and a monitor and aware of everything.
4:38
SPEAKER_01: And here in this,
4:39
SPEAKER_01: in our lowly individual members offices,
4:42
SPEAKER_01: I can say,
4:43
SPEAKER_01: well,
4:43
SPEAKER_01: let's see,
4:43
SPEAKER_01: that's not in my committee.
4:44
SPEAKER_01: So I don't have to care about that yet.
4:47
SPEAKER_01: And I love, I love that.
4:49
SPEAKER_01: So I'm in natural resource world.
4:51
SPEAKER_01: I'm not even in full ways and means world yet.
4:53
SPEAKER_01: If you haven't escaped the subcommittee,
4:54
SPEAKER_01: which you definitely haven't,
4:55
SPEAKER_01: I don't even want to talk to you yet.
4:57
SPEAKER_01: Um, yeah,
4:59
SPEAKER_01: And you go talk to your whatever sub is relevant.
5:02
SPEAKER_01: If you're a natural resource sub, I'd love to talk to you.
5:04
SPEAKER_01: There's lots to do on natural resources or housing, right?
5:07
SPEAKER_01: And I think that if you're a smart staffer,
5:10
SPEAKER_01: if you're a smart legislator,
5:11
work your own bills and then work your committees and don't try
5:14
to step too far out
5:18
on some of these other issues unless you've got something
5:21
really solid on that.
5:22
Because you can really spread yourself too thin and then
5:24
actually accomplish literally nothing.
5:26
And I think that's the worst feeling is to go through a whole
5:29
session and then not
5:30
SPEAKER_01: feel like you've accomplished anything.
5:31
SPEAKER_01: You didn't didn't have anything to take away.
5:34
SPEAKER_01: You didn't have a funding.
5:35
SPEAKER_01: You didn't have a great speech.
5:37
SPEAKER_01: You didn't have a bill.
5:38
SPEAKER_01: You didn't have an amendment.
5:39
SPEAKER_01: You know, it's just zero.
5:42
Well,
5:42
I was going to start today with,
5:45
you know,
5:45
what Oregonians actually care about.
5:47
SPEAKER_00: So there was a fun DHM survey that was commissioned by OBI,
5:52
SPEAKER_00: Oregon Business and Industry,
5:55
SPEAKER_00: just in January.
5:56
SPEAKER_00: And I thought that report was pretty telling.
6:00
SPEAKER_00: And I think the key finding,
6:02
SPEAKER_00: which I thought was very interesting,
6:04
SPEAKER_00: and I think we all inherently believe this,
6:06
SPEAKER_00: is that
6:07
SPEAKER_00: Only 26% say the state is heading in the right direction.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: And that just seems, you know, even a little high to me.
6:18
SPEAKER_00: And I think the other one is that 85% say cost of living.
6:24
And then deep into that means 77 percent say housing
6:28
affordability are like the key issues.
6:32
SPEAKER_00: So basically,
6:34
SPEAKER_00: if we're talking about anything except for that,
6:36
SPEAKER_00: we're probably just wasting our time with voters and voters.
6:40
SPEAKER_00: Right.
6:40
SPEAKER_00: Right.
6:42
SPEAKER_00: In voters' minds,
6:42
SPEAKER_00: it doesn't mean other people have pet projects,
6:44
SPEAKER_00: but basically in the voters' minds,
6:46
SPEAKER_00: if you're not dealing with cost of living or housing affordability,
6:49
SPEAKER_00: basically they don't care.
6:52
SPEAKER_00: The elected leader's job performance,
6:54
SPEAKER_00: I thought,
6:55
SPEAKER_00: Governor Kotech near an all-time low,
6:57
SPEAKER_00: 64% disapprove of her performance.
7:02
SPEAKER_00: And 64% tied disapproved of the legislature's performance,
7:06
SPEAKER_00: which I thought was pretty interesting.
7:08
SPEAKER_00: So I think Governor Kotek is dragging us down, Reagan.
7:12
SPEAKER_00: I really feel like,
7:14
SPEAKER_00: I really feel that she,
7:16
SPEAKER_00: the special session,
7:17
I think she's really pulled us into the doldrums of running the
7:21
gas tax through
7:21
SPEAKER_00: there.
7:22
SPEAKER_00: And I really feel that she's pulled us down.
7:24
SPEAKER_00: She's like, if I'm going down, you're going with me.
7:27
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
7:29
But juxtapose that with only 55 percent disapprove of President
7:34
Trump's performance.
7:36
And I need to see I need to look for the crosstabs on this
7:40
because I would like to
7:41
SPEAKER_01: know because we're called crosstabs.
7:43
SPEAKER_01: Right.
7:43
SPEAKER_01: I want to see what's his approval rating.
7:45
SPEAKER_01: Is it 35 percent?
7:47
SPEAKER_01: Is it a little higher?
7:48
SPEAKER_01: That's that's what I the number I need to see.
7:50
SPEAKER_01: So I'm going to go looking for that.
7:51
uh at some point here if i don't find it right now uh but that
7:55
i think that is
7:56
interesting i do think you know oregonians are very fair and so
8:00
they're going to
8:01
blame the governor and the legislature equally uh hard to argue
8:04
with that in a lot
8:05
of ways uh because you know we're not the greatest uh body of
8:10
folks uh sometimes
8:11
sometimes we do some pretty some pretty silly stuff uh so you
8:15
know i i i can kind
8:16
SPEAKER_01: of hear that
8:18
SPEAKER_01: I think one of the numbers I found interesting.
8:20
SPEAKER_01: Oh, did you find it?
8:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so Governor Kokotek has a 24% approval.
8:24
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
8:26
SPEAKER_00: The legislature is slightly better, 28%.
8:28
SPEAKER_00: And President Trump has...
8:33
SPEAKER_00: A 42% approval, 43% approval rating.
8:36
SPEAKER_01: Okay, so 42 to 43 is higher than I would have thought.
8:39
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
8:39
SPEAKER_01: So that's a little, that's 11 points, negative 11 or 12.
8:43
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, about.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: Wow.
8:46
SPEAKER_00: With Kotech at a, what did it say, 64 and then she's 32.
8:50
SPEAKER_00: So she's minus 32.
8:50
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
8:53
SPEAKER_00: Huh.
8:54
SPEAKER_00: That's a big difference.
8:55
SPEAKER_01: I would not have predicted that.
8:58
SPEAKER_01: And I was looking for the front.
9:00
SPEAKER_01: So the methodology, 600 registered voters across the state sample size.
9:05
SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, that's a, that's a reasonable sample size too.
9:07
SPEAKER_01: Wow.
9:08
SPEAKER_01: Wow.
9:08
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
9:09
SPEAKER_00: Well, that's DHM.
9:10
And we know that they don't do,
9:11
you know,
9:12
John has been on our show,
9:13
right?
9:13
SPEAKER_00: He's done a lot.
9:14
SPEAKER_00: Many times.
9:15
And I think,
9:16
you know,
9:16
he doesn't get into,
9:17
he doesn't do campaign polling.
9:18
So he really can be a little bit more trusted in regards to his
9:22
polling stuff.
9:23
SPEAKER_00: So he's not pushing one side or the other.
9:24
SPEAKER_00: So.
9:27
But one of the things when he took up is like political issues
9:29
and stuff.
9:30
SPEAKER_00: We were talking about taxes and all of the cost of living things.
9:34
One of the things I thought was pretty interesting is like
9:36
government mismanagement
9:37
SPEAKER_00: is kind of starting to slide up the scale as an issue.
9:42
SPEAKER_00: That people really care about.
9:44
SPEAKER_00: And I find that to be very interesting, right?
9:47
SPEAKER_00: To see government mismanagement, I guess, would be fraud.
9:52
SPEAKER_00: If John was here, he'd probably speak to that.
9:54
But that's what I'm going to just go ahead and go with is that
9:56
means fraud.
9:58
SPEAKER_00: So that's really kind of a key thing.
10:00
SPEAKER_00: But the key to the right direction and all this stuff with Kotech and I,
10:04
SPEAKER_00: and I really looked at all of the differences in all these things,
10:08
SPEAKER_00: Reagan.
10:08
SPEAKER_00: And the key to this is over,
10:11
SPEAKER_00: I went back to,
10:12
SPEAKER_00: he has a slide in here that was slide two,
10:15
SPEAKER_00: and you could probably look at that one.
10:18
I'll try to put some of these slides up in the pod so people
10:20
can see them.
10:22
He goes all the way back to 2001 when you look at right track,
10:26
wrong track kind of stuff.
10:28
SPEAKER_00: Are we going in the right direction?
10:29
SPEAKER_00: Do Republicans feel optimistic?
10:33
SPEAKER_00: Democrats?
10:35
SPEAKER_00: We were about where we were in 22 years.
10:40
SPEAKER_00: across the board with Republicans, NAVs, and Democrats.
10:43
SPEAKER_00: And so that ended up being a good Republican year in Oregon.
10:47
SPEAKER_00: And I wonder if you think about that,
10:51
SPEAKER_00: like in 18,
10:52
SPEAKER_00: Democrats were way more right direction on things.
10:58
SPEAKER_00: Republicans were way more down in the tank.
11:02
But Democrats now are way off the mark where they were in 2018
11:06
when last time you
11:07
SPEAKER_00: had a Trump midterm.
11:08
SPEAKER_00: So
11:09
SPEAKER_00: I feel like in the NAVs are pretty upset.
11:12
SPEAKER_00: They're below where they were in 2018.
11:15
So maybe if you had a negative outlook,
11:18
that means you're going to vote against the majority.
11:22
SPEAKER_01: So here's the thing, too.
11:23
Did you keep scrolling on these if the election for legislature
11:26
were today?
11:28
SPEAKER_01: Did you see that one?
11:29
SPEAKER_00: Well, I did.
11:30
SPEAKER_00: But I mean, you're you know, you're kind of blowing the.
11:32
SPEAKER_00: Oh, sorry.
11:33
SPEAKER_00: Sorry.
11:34
SPEAKER_00: Go ahead.
11:34
SPEAKER_01: No, I'm just kidding.
11:35
SPEAKER_01: Go ahead.
11:35
SPEAKER_01: Republicans, 45, Democrats, 42 statewide.
11:39
SPEAKER_01: How could we be running?
11:40
I don't think if you asked anybody on the street today or any
11:43
prognosticator,
11:44
SPEAKER_01: any professional consultant on either side,
11:47
SPEAKER_01: what is the current state?
11:49
SPEAKER_01: What is the current generic ballot statewide?
11:51
SPEAKER_01: So we're a D plus nine state and we're R plus three.
11:54
SPEAKER_01: In a January poll.
11:56
SPEAKER_01: Now, granted, again, January poll.
11:58
SPEAKER_01: But I think one of the things driving that right now,
12:01
SPEAKER_01: and this is going to be the Democrats' main thing that they have to do,
12:05
SPEAKER_01: is can they get Democrats to come home?
12:07
SPEAKER_01: Because only 75% of Democratic voters are supporting Democrat candidates,
12:12
SPEAKER_01: whereas 92% of Republicans' voters are supporting Republican candidates.
12:17
SPEAKER_00: That's the difference, yeah.
12:19
SPEAKER_00: Like the Republican candidates.
12:20
SPEAKER_00: So what that tells me is our base is...
12:23
SPEAKER_00: Holding strong, which and then the Democrats are wavering.
12:27
So,
12:28
Reagan,
12:28
that really goes to what policies are the Democrats putting
12:32
forth in this session?
12:34
SPEAKER_00: Very base driven policies.
12:38
SPEAKER_00: Right.
12:38
SPEAKER_00: Right.
12:39
Illegal immigration,
12:40
disconnect from federal tax code,
12:43
a very anti anything anti Trump.
12:45
SPEAKER_00: Right.
12:45
SPEAKER_00: Pro union stuff.
12:47
SPEAKER_00: So they're going back.
12:48
We got the obviously the the one deal that they did yesterday
12:52
in house rules as
12:53
SPEAKER_00: well,
12:53
SPEAKER_00: which was the abortion bill and stuff.
12:55
SPEAKER_00: So we're kind of sticky.
12:57
They're very sticking into their base because they figured all
13:00
they need to do is
13:01
SPEAKER_00: shore up their base to make sure that they drive home the elections.
13:03
SPEAKER_00: Right.
13:06
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
13:06
SPEAKER_01: And I mean,
13:06
SPEAKER_01: you're seeing that across the board here with,
13:09
SPEAKER_01: I would say,
13:10
SPEAKER_01: a pedal to the metal approach,
13:13
SPEAKER_01: like you said,
13:13
on those Democratic issues where they're not softening up where
13:16
they were at in the
13:17
SPEAKER_01: last session.
13:18
SPEAKER_01: They are doubling down.
13:20
SPEAKER_01: And so I think it'll be interesting to see.
13:23
SPEAKER_01: how that stuff moves.
13:25
SPEAKER_01: Generally,
13:26
the sort of general sense around the building is that the
13:30
unions have overstepped a
13:32
bit on their disconnect messaging against maybe some of the
13:36
folks that they
13:36
SPEAKER_01: perceive to be swings.
13:38
SPEAKER_01: Now,
13:38
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if they're swings on the actual proposal that came out,
13:42
and I don't necessarily want to get into the technicalities of
13:44
that proposal yet.
13:45
SPEAKER_01: I think it's a little early, maybe next week.
13:48
SPEAKER_01: But it was not it's not full disconnect,
13:50
but it definitely has pieces where they try to recapture some
13:53
revenue and they try
13:54
SPEAKER_01: to do some tax credits around the edges,
13:55
SPEAKER_01: which is the classic Democrat.
13:57
SPEAKER_01: We're never going to lower your taxes,
13:59
SPEAKER_01: but we might try to give you,
14:01
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:01
SPEAKER_01: a tax credit that one in 10 people can use.
14:04
SPEAKER_01: Right.
14:04
SPEAKER_01: So.
14:05
That's their classic straight because they're really trying to
14:07
recoup revenue
14:07
SPEAKER_01: because I don't think they yet know.
14:09
And we'll find out tomorrow how big the gap actually is with
14:13
the revenue forecast.
14:14
SPEAKER_01: Right.
14:15
SPEAKER_01: And is that cap is the gap getting bigger or is it getting smaller?
14:19
SPEAKER_01: Is there a kicker?
14:20
SPEAKER_01: Is the kicker getting bigger or smaller?
14:22
SPEAKER_01: All of those things.
14:23
SPEAKER_01: Right.
14:24
SPEAKER_01: And I think this also goes to excuse me.
14:29
So which of the three options do you think you should use to
14:32
close the state budget gap?
14:34
SPEAKER_01: Essentially is what they asked.
14:37
SPEAKER_01: 12% raise taxes.
14:38
Well,
14:38
first of all,
14:38
I'd like to appreciate the 9% who say they don't know.
14:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
14:43
SPEAKER_01: Sometimes I don't either.
14:44
And so far I'm hearing that when you meet with a lot of the
14:47
folks in ways and means
14:48
SPEAKER_01: and ask,
14:48
SPEAKER_01: how are you fixing the budget problem?
14:50
SPEAKER_01: They also say they don't know.
14:53
SPEAKER_01: Maybe the co-chairs are in that 9%.
14:54
SPEAKER_01: Don't blame them.
14:55
SPEAKER_01: 12% say raise taxes.
14:56
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
14:58
SPEAKER_01: Okay, now that is much heavily more Democrat.
15:03
SPEAKER_01: 27%, so more than double, say reduce spending.
15:06
SPEAKER_01: And that's 42% of those guys are Republicans.
15:09
SPEAKER_01: That's one of the heavier sections of Republicans.
15:12
SPEAKER_01: And then double it again to 52%,
15:15
SPEAKER_01: and you've got almost double,
15:17
SPEAKER_01: as reduce regulations and create incentives,
15:19
SPEAKER_01: which is,
15:20
SPEAKER_01: of course,
15:20
SPEAKER_01: kind of OBI's point,
15:21
SPEAKER_01: which is they would like to grow the economy,
15:24
SPEAKER_01: so you grow the pie financially.
15:26
SPEAKER_01: which helps you have to not do cutting and not have to raise taxes.
15:29
SPEAKER_01: Right.
15:30
SPEAKER_01: And so that's obviously,
15:31
SPEAKER_01: you know,
15:31
SPEAKER_01: very good argument they're making,
15:33
SPEAKER_01: not only based on their experience in business,
15:35
SPEAKER_01: but also what people are saying.
15:37
And I think if you give people raising taxes is painful,
15:40
cutting spending is also painful.
15:42
I don't think it's always painful for all the same people,
15:44
but it's not easy either.
15:45
SPEAKER_01: And I think even if you handed
15:47
SPEAKER_01: even if the,
15:48
SPEAKER_01: even if the co-chairs walked into the Republican offices today and said,
15:51
SPEAKER_01: we are done with this,
15:51
SPEAKER_01: you guys get the budget,
15:52
SPEAKER_01: right?
15:53
SPEAKER_01: It's not going to be a walk in the park to figure out what to cut.
15:56
SPEAKER_01: All right.
15:57
SPEAKER_01: I think some people pretend it's a simple equation.
15:59
It's not,
16:00
but there's a door magic door number three that people want and
16:04
it's economic growth.
16:05
SPEAKER_01: Right.
16:05
SPEAKER_01: And the question is,
16:06
SPEAKER_01: is are these little tax credit moves,
16:10
are those going to drive economic growth or do we need bigger
16:13
changes to be,
16:14
SPEAKER_01: Big changes to land use, for instance.
16:17
Need the Jobs Act that's over there in the Senate that does
16:20
some pretty big things
16:21
SPEAKER_01: and has a lot of sponsors,
16:22
SPEAKER_01: but also is maybe on a particular hot list of a particular group of
16:30
SPEAKER_01: conservationists.
16:31
SPEAKER_01: I was going to use a different term.
16:33
SPEAKER_01: I'm not going to.
16:35
SPEAKER_01: Right?
16:36
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
16:38
SPEAKER_00: No, I think you're right.
16:40
SPEAKER_00: I think that what we really...
16:43
SPEAKER_00: are starting to see.
16:44
SPEAKER_00: I like the idea of the reduced regulations and create economic growth.
16:49
SPEAKER_00: I think that's where most people want to fight into and say,
16:53
SPEAKER_00: hey,
16:53
SPEAKER_00: how do we get...
16:54
SPEAKER_00: Because we're an economic...
16:56
our state our economy is driven by jobs and then that also
17:00
drives our spending
17:02
because all of our most of our money is derived from income tax
17:05
so i think people
17:07
people kind of know that inherently so they want to say hey
17:11
let's just get
17:11
regulations out of the way and let's get incentives and let's
17:14
get some businesses
17:15
going again and that seems a little bit better than just trying
17:18
to go in there and
17:19
SPEAKER_00: reduce spending and that's where i wish the republicans
17:22
SPEAKER_00: I know we love the harp on reducing spending,
17:25
SPEAKER_00: living within our means,
17:27
SPEAKER_00: but those are,
17:28
SPEAKER_00: they're decent little buzzwords,
17:31
but they're not as strategic or very concrete on here's exactly
17:38
what we need to do
17:39
SPEAKER_00: to get ourselves out of this mess is let's go raise revenue,
17:45
SPEAKER_00: not by taxes,
17:46
SPEAKER_00: but raise revenue by creating more growth.
17:49
SPEAKER_00: And I like that message.
17:52
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
17:52
SPEAKER_01: Only one in four people like the cut spending message anyway.
17:55
SPEAKER_01: So you're only going to be able to reach a quarter of your audience.
17:58
And it's already an audience that is pretty locked into
18:02
supporting Republican candidates.
18:04
SPEAKER_01: Right.
18:04
SPEAKER_01: So you're upside there.
18:06
SPEAKER_01: It's low upside messaging.
18:08
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
18:09
SPEAKER_01: So I think that's probably all Republicans.
18:11
SPEAKER_01: The reason that Republicans...
18:14
SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
18:14
I think the other reason that Republicans are fired up is
18:18
because of we've just won
18:20
SPEAKER_01: this big victory on the tax measure.
18:22
SPEAKER_01: Right.
18:22
SPEAKER_01: And it's been referred.
18:23
SPEAKER_01: And now Democrats are trying to move it to me.
18:26
SPEAKER_01: And I noticed and I had to laugh.
18:29
SPEAKER_01: And,
18:29
SPEAKER_01: you know,
18:29
this this may create a new category for the awards at the end
18:32
of the year,
18:33
SPEAKER_01: beginning of next year.
18:34
SPEAKER_01: Right.
18:35
SPEAKER_01: But the the the oof where it is award, oof, there it is.
18:42
SPEAKER_01: Senate President Rob Wagner recently kind of did the classic Republican,
18:48
SPEAKER_01: the classic political blender,
18:49
SPEAKER_01: which is accidentally speaking the truth out loud.
18:52
SPEAKER_01: He says he's quoted by OPB.
18:54
SPEAKER_01: Is it political?
18:55
For sure,
18:56
Senate President Rob Wagner,
18:57
D.
18:58
Lake Oswego,
18:58
told the reporters last week.
19:00
SPEAKER_01: I don't think people want to see this on a November ballot.
19:02
SPEAKER_01: Now, I don't know which people he was talking about.
19:05
SPEAKER_01: He wasn't talking about anybody who signed the petition.
19:07
SPEAKER_01: He wasn't talking about Republicans.
19:10
SPEAKER_01: People may know who he's talking about.
19:11
SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure.
19:12
SPEAKER_01: Wagner's office later sought to downplay his remarks.
19:15
SPEAKER_01: Don't you just love when you got to clean up that quote?
19:17
SPEAKER_00: Oh, great.
19:18
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
19:20
SPEAKER_00: That is the best.
19:22
There's nothing better than when they have to go clean up
19:25
somebody else's remarks
19:26
SPEAKER_00: when you're the comms director or whatever.
19:29
SPEAKER_00: There's nothing that drives you more crazy.
19:33
SPEAKER_01: The worst one is if you're in the room when the quote is made.
19:36
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
19:37
You've got to not let on that you're just cringed because your
19:41
journalist,
19:41
SPEAKER_01: unless they're on the phone,
19:43
may notice that and you don't really want to tip them off and
19:46
hope maybe they don't
19:47
SPEAKER_01: use it.
19:48
SPEAKER_01: But, yeah, I think they kind of realized where they were at on that one.
19:54
SPEAKER_01: But, you know, props to OPP for going out there and printing it.
19:58
SPEAKER_00: That is good.
19:59
SPEAKER_00: But also, too, why not... Actually, the sad part is props for...
20:05
SPEAKER_00: President Wagner for actually admitting the truth.
20:09
SPEAKER_00: And then and then but a bummer.
20:11
SPEAKER_00: They tried to clarify it.
20:12
SPEAKER_00: Right.
20:13
SPEAKER_00: Like he had a good props by just stating the obvious.
20:17
And I think we need to do a little bit more of that in Salem
20:20
and politics in
20:21
SPEAKER_00: general is just just state the obvious.
20:24
Like,
20:24
clearly,
20:25
it's better politically for the Democrats to have it in May.
20:30
And it's clearly more beneficial for the Republicans to have it
20:33
in November.
20:34
SPEAKER_00: Right.
20:35
SPEAKER_00: Especially on the governor's race,
20:36
because it'll be called co-tax tax increase by whoever wins the
20:42
Republican primary.
20:44
And that's going to help with non-affiliated voters who,
20:47
you know,
20:47
don't want a gas tax.
20:49
SPEAKER_00: So I.
20:51
SPEAKER_00: I don't know why that's controversial.
20:53
I mean,
20:54
why not just I mean,
20:55
it's inherent,
20:56
right,
20:57
that that's going to be the case.
20:58
So and if you're the party in power,
21:03
you want to limit your exposure to losing elections.
21:07
SPEAKER_00: That is called politics.
21:11
SPEAKER_00: Nationally, Republicans are doing it right.
21:13
SPEAKER_00: They're trying to figure out how do they use politics.
21:16
the majority in Congress to help position themselves in a way
21:21
that helps them win votes.
21:23
SPEAKER_00: It's what you do.
21:24
SPEAKER_00: I'm not against that.
21:27
SPEAKER_01: I think you make a pretty good argument for that, Brian.
21:31
And I do think generally what you hear from people is they're
21:34
tired of the lies.
21:35
SPEAKER_01: So maybe more frank communication,
21:39
even if it's saying the kind of politically convenient thing or
21:44
the thing about
21:45
SPEAKER_01: what's politically inconvenient.
21:46
SPEAKER_01: Maybe that is the right call.
21:47
SPEAKER_01: I do not know.
21:50
SPEAKER_01: You could be totally right about that.
21:53
SPEAKER_00: I just think people,
21:55
SPEAKER_00: especially in politics today,
21:57
they're so anti-fake and they think everybody's just talking
22:02
point heads and
22:03
SPEAKER_00: talking heads.
22:04
SPEAKER_00: A little bit of frankness can really help a candidate be real.
22:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
22:14
SPEAKER_01: No, I do think that candidates have to be true to themselves.
22:18
And so if they just need to say the truth and it's going to
22:22
ruffle some feathers,
22:23
I think.
22:23
SPEAKER_01: So where do we go from here, Brian?
22:25
SPEAKER_01: It's already day two.
22:25
SPEAKER_01: And like you said, there are some bills that are already dead.
22:29
SPEAKER_01: Maybe their sponsors don't know it yet.
22:32
SPEAKER_01: But the chairs and maybe the vice chairs do know it.
22:35
SPEAKER_01: And I think that, but what I've been telling people,
22:41
SPEAKER_01: And I got this.
22:42
SPEAKER_01: I'm going to take credit for it,
22:43
but it was really my wife that said this is if long session is
22:47
like drinking from a
22:48
SPEAKER_01: fire hose,
22:49
SPEAKER_01: short session would be like drinking from a fire hydrant.
22:53
And I think that that is very accurate because it's day two and
22:56
I already feel like
22:57
SPEAKER_01: I've been here for a month.
22:59
SPEAKER_01: And I'm everybody's already tired and it only gets worse from here.
23:04
SPEAKER_01: My hope really is the Senate doesn't send us too many bills to work.
23:07
Second chamber,
23:07
Brian,
23:08
I don't know what I'm going to do if we get too many bills.
23:12
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, right.
23:13
SPEAKER_00: I think that the second chamber part of it,
23:14
SPEAKER_00: because that's really when it becomes a sprint,
23:17
SPEAKER_00: right?
23:17
When you get stuff over the first finish line and then we start
23:22
getting close to,
23:23
SPEAKER_00: you know,
23:24
SPEAKER_00: walkout zone,
23:25
SPEAKER_00: which is very difficult.
23:26
SPEAKER_00: So it's 35 days.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: So then you get the day 28th.
23:30
SPEAKER_00: Day 26,
23:31
SPEAKER_00: day 25,
23:32
SPEAKER_00: you start going,
23:33
SPEAKER_00: well,
23:33
let's not blow it up because the one side could just walk out
23:37
and everything just
23:38
SPEAKER_00: goes to shit.
23:41
And then if you have a bill you want to pass or you barely got
23:43
it on one side of
23:44
SPEAKER_00: the chamber and you're secretly going,
23:47
SPEAKER_00: please,
23:47
SPEAKER_00: let's not walk out.
23:48
SPEAKER_00: I've really been working on this bill forever here.
23:51
there's always one or two of those oh man so looking at the
23:55
calendar we end
23:57
technically constitutionally the last day of session would be
24:01
march 9th which is a
24:02
monday i'm putting this out there right now and i've been
24:05
telling people we've
24:06
worked we've worked a friday we've worked a saturday yeah i
24:11
think we've even come
24:12
SPEAKER_01: in on sunday before
24:14
I don't think you win the next vote for Speaker or Senate
24:16
President if you bring
24:17
SPEAKER_01: people back on that Monday.
24:19
SPEAKER_01: I just don't see it, Brian.
24:21
SPEAKER_01: I really do not.
24:23
SPEAKER_01: I think that there's enough margin by starting early,
24:27
SPEAKER_01: going overtime in that Friday,
24:29
SPEAKER_01: Saturday,
24:29
Sunday zone that you really have to want to bring some pain if
24:33
you're bringing back
24:34
SPEAKER_01: people on Monday,
24:35
SPEAKER_01: March 9th.
24:36
SPEAKER_01: So I really think this is a 34-day session, truth be told.
24:40
SPEAKER_01: And, uh, so, and which already shortens your runway.
24:43
SPEAKER_01: Right.
24:44
SPEAKER_01: And so we'll see how we do.
24:46
Um,
24:47
as,
24:48
uh,
24:48
the,
24:48
it looks like the four 30,
24:49
uh,
24:49
committees are wrapping up.
24:51
SPEAKER_00: So, you know, geez, look at us.
24:52
SPEAKER_00: We might have to go back to work for a little while.
24:54
SPEAKER_00: Ways and means, right.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: Five to eight.
24:56
SPEAKER_00: Jimity Christmas.
24:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
24:58
SPEAKER_01: And reduction options.
24:59
SPEAKER_01: That can be fun.
25:01
SPEAKER_00: Well, we'll come back.
25:02
SPEAKER_00: Reagan and I, Reagan forgot his microphones.
25:04
SPEAKER_00: That's why we had to do it over zoom.
25:06
Yeah.
25:07
SPEAKER_00: We'll come back on Friday, I think, right?
25:11
SPEAKER_00: Isn't that what we're planning on?
25:12
SPEAKER_00: Or maybe Thursday and do another episode?
25:14
And then we'll get into some bill-specific stuff because I kind
25:16
of wanted to see –
25:17
we needed to see what kind of got dropped and what was kind of
25:21
getting pushed in,
25:21
SPEAKER_00: and then we'll go into some specific bills,
25:23
SPEAKER_00: I think,
25:23
SPEAKER_00: in the next episode.
25:25
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we'll see if I even have time to do that.
25:27
I mean,
25:27
goodness,
25:28
just trying to keep a handle on our committees,
25:30
our handful of stuff.
25:32
SPEAKER_01: It's amazing.
25:32
SPEAKER_01: And that's with two bill limits and two limits on Capcom submissions,
25:36
SPEAKER_00: which,
25:36
SPEAKER_01: thank goodness,
25:37
SPEAKER_01: we need more of that.
25:38
SPEAKER_01: We need bill limits.
25:39
SPEAKER_01: We need Capcom limits.
25:41
SPEAKER_01: Those are some things we need desperately.
25:43
SPEAKER_01: Yes, we'll be back Thursday or Friday.
25:45
SPEAKER_01: It's hard to keep those folks here after Ways and Means on Friday.
25:50
People are just running out of the Capitol,
25:52
desperately trying to get home.
25:54
And right now,
25:55
it kind of looks like we may not even have Ways and Means on
25:57
Friday.
25:58
SPEAKER_01: So that would be tremendous.
26:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that'd be good.
26:01
SPEAKER_01: So keep hoping that that's the case.
26:04
SPEAKER_00: If that happens, I'm flying down to Arizona for the weekend.
26:09
SPEAKER_01: All right.
26:09
SPEAKER_01: Well, you enjoy that.
26:10
SPEAKER_01: I think I'll just sleep or more likely prep for Monday.
26:14
SPEAKER_01: All right.
26:15
SPEAKER_01: We'll talk soon.
26:16
SPEAKER_01: Sounds good.
26:17
SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Brian.
26:17
SPEAKER_01: All right.
26:18
SPEAKER_01: See ya.