Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Luke Broyles | You Ain't Bullish Enough | Simply Bitcoin IRL

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Luke Broyles | You Ain't Bullish Enough | Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:08
  Yo Hello everybody. Welcome to another episode of
• 0:11
  Simply Bitcoin IRL. Today's guest is Luke Broyles
• 0:16
  been a huge fan of some of his threads that he's been dropping.
• 0:20
  We're going to explore all that. I'm really looking forward to
• 0:23
  this conversation. But before we start the show, I
• 0:26
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• 1:00
  I want to bring up our awesome. Guest Luke.
• 1:02
  Thank you so much for for joining us today.
• 1:06
  Yeah, Tapper to. Can you hear me?
• 1:08
  Yes, I can. I can hear you perfectly great.
• 1:10
  Well, I love your setup. Looks like you're outside.
• 1:13
  Yeah, I know only if it was warmer enclosed porch here.
• 1:19
  So yeah, okay. Okay, awesome.
• 1:22
  Very, very cool. Anyways, Luke.
• 1:25
  I am a huge fan of some of your threads, and If I want to talk a
• 1:30
  little bit about like the psychology of it, so you went
• 1:33
  from being relatively unknown, right to being projected into
• 1:38
  the stratosphere and the podcasting world.
• 1:40
  You were invited on Preston pitches podcast recently, right?
• 1:44
  So and I'm sure you're going to make the rounds at some of the
• 1:46
  Bitcoin conferences, as well. From what I'm hearing and yeah,
• 1:52
  man, how has that been like, was it kind of surreal for you to
• 1:55
  just, you know? Because usually most most people
• 1:58
  you know they're well known. Known for a while and then they
• 2:00
  built it up and then they take off.
• 2:02
  But, you know, it was very quick for you.
• 2:04
  How did that feel like? Yeah, it's been very strange,
• 2:08
  you know, I've large part of buy Bitcoin education.
• 2:12
  I would say, I was from podcasts videos and listening to folks.
• 2:18
  I never really got that much out of reading books.
• 2:22
  Frankly, when it came to bitcoin, I did much better with
• 2:26
  hearing the ideas spoken by the authors.
• 2:29
  You know, especially or Jeff Booth Michael sailor and a few
• 2:33
  other folks, especially very key for that for me.
• 2:35
  Lynn Allen was one. Greg Faust was one and a few
• 2:39
  other people too that really helped solidify my mind.
• 2:43
  So it's been very strange. The strangest part has been the
• 2:48
  fact that you know, these people are sort of like these online
• 2:53
  personas that you are just used to watching and like listening
• 2:57
  to and then all of a sudden A sudden one day it's like you're
• 3:00
  interacting with them and it's like, it's all still virtual at
• 3:02
  least most of it still virtual. So that that's very strange to
• 3:05
  go from a passive place of listening to, you know, the same
• 3:09
  dozen or two, dozen voices and all of a sudden it's like, oh
• 3:13
  like half of them. I'm talking to you now.
• 3:16
  So anyway, I think that that's the one of the strangest Parts.
• 3:20
  It was really cool to meet. Greg Faust Summit him one or two
• 3:23
  weeks ago in person and it was really funny because we talked
• 3:27
  about a lot of things that are about.
• 3:29
  Bonds and Bitcoin to. So it was kind of funny because,
• 3:31
  you know, he's like the exact same real life as he is lying
• 3:34
  with with everything. So that was, it was quite
• 3:36
  enjoyable to meet him and get to talk to him.
• 3:39
  And I'm looking forward to as your as your sponsor is a
• 3:43
  Bitcoin conference looking forward to that to meet more
• 3:46
  people. So, that's been the strangest
• 3:47
  part, but besides that, another strange component has just been
• 3:53
  how quickly people been supportive online tests.
• 3:57
  That's very nice to feel that. To a certain degree and helping
• 4:00
  people. I would say probably most of the
• 4:03
  help has been helping people that are early bitcoiners, the
• 4:06
  new bitcoiners understand the significance of it.
• 4:09
  Although there's a lot of no corners and pre Corners that
• 4:12
  have expressed that whatever I've said, or something.
• 4:16
  I've said, has been a help to them so they have all that
• 4:18
  positive feedback has been really You know it times moving
• 4:24
  and in general it's just been very encouraging, very exciting.
• 4:26
  So yeah. But yeah, it was definitely
• 4:28
  extremely fast and almost everyone keeps saying how fast
• 4:31
  it's been and it's definitely been quite a lot.
• 4:33
  So yeah. And you know, your example, I
• 4:36
  think is a testament to how different things work now,
• 4:41
  right. And how Society doesn't really
• 4:47
  They Don't Really judge you based on credentials anymore.
• 4:51
  It's just raw proof of work. You did you put in the work?
• 4:54
  Do people appreciate that work. And whether people appreciate
• 4:58
  that work or not, Determines a lot actually, right?
• 5:04
  So, can you talk a little bit about that, right?
• 5:06
  Because I think that phenomenon is very interesting because
• 5:09
  we've lived in a world that that wasn't the case for a very long
• 5:12
  time, you needed the credentials, you needed that,
• 5:14
  you know, the stamps of approval so to speak.
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  And now the internet's just like, nah, you don't, you don't
• 5:20
  need that anymore. So what are your thoughts on
• 5:21
  that? Yeah, that's that's a great
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  point. I would say that I can fully
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  agree with that. It's very strange.
• 5:28
  How much attention I've gotten and how little My credentials, I
• 5:31
  better. And frankly, if I had thought
• 5:33
  about that earlier, I probably would have started posting
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  online Twitter and talking much more publicly then that I have
• 5:40
  you don't because I thought, okay, I don't have a degree in
• 5:44
  economics or it monetary history and so who's going to listen to,
• 5:47
  you know, this 23 year old blabber and ran online about
• 5:52
  technology and the pace of change and everything.
• 5:54
  That's why I thought it very low few people.
• 5:55
  So I do too much, but but it's your point really, it's been an
• 6:00
  honor. You for folks.
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  And it has sparked a little bit of thought more than it's
• 6:05
  already been going on in mind. But I think the reason for that
• 6:08
  is because previously in the past we didn't have this thing
• 6:13
  called the internet. We didn't have this constant
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  24/7 communication 365 days of the year.
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  And so what did people do they more or less off?
• 6:21
  Sourced? The application process in the
• 6:25
  critical thinking process to schools, you know, we don't have
• 6:29
  the time and ability to exert. The resources necessary to vet
• 6:32
  all of these candidates and all these people, if their
• 6:36
  backgrounds. So we're going to have these
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  institutions have their stamp of approval and these pieces of
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  paper that basically verifies that.
• 6:44
  Okay, this person is legit but now that we do have the internet
• 6:47
  and now that we do have online instant communication.
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  It's almost as if that instead of people off sourcing or
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  Outsourcing it's becoming much more Paramount.
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  Much more towards the front, you know it's like right now anyone
• 7:00
  can For free, go online and read basically, all of my views on
• 7:06
  Twitter and you know, you couldn't do that 30 years ago.
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  You'd have to do much more work to do that and so I think that's
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  an interesting transition that with the internet it makes the
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  axis of information more accessible to people like me you
• 7:19
  know I don't have to go to college to learn all of these
• 7:22
  things necessarily, I can a lot of it online for free.
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  I don't have to go to college to learn about Bitcoin.
• 7:27
  I can learn about online for free.
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  And and then not only just from the workers or employee side
• 7:34
  bills. From the employer side, it's
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  easier because you don't have to rely on an institution and give
• 7:39
  a stamp of approval you can just look it up yourself.
• 7:42
  So it's interesting how it has different Dynamics and different
• 7:44
  ends and really, really by Rise more, or less on Twitter, or at
• 7:51
  least a couple of threads. I did, the went viral is more or
• 7:55
  less a Stamp of approval of the idea that the world is changing
• 8:01
  faster and faster faster. We busted come with the future
• 8:04
  is in the past, you know, for for 500, 800 thousand years you
• 8:07
  have a longer a Define it. You know that was the way that
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  we determine who's educated, who knows what they're talking
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  about. Who does it?
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  And now it's like for the first time and the last Millennia we
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  have this new way of defining who's educated who's right?
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  And who's not. And and obviously the number of
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  followers does not equate to The intelligence of a person, you
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  know, I don't think anyone should take anything.
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  I'm saying seriously because I have, you know, a few thousand
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  followers. I think they should take the
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  ideas at face value and think about it but I think I think
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  even though it's not a direct correlation, I think a lot of
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  people take that in direct correlation.
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  And so anyway those are just some thoughts about that.
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  You're right. And it isn't a direct
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  correlation but you can. I definitely use Twitter.
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  Twitter is a very effective filter.
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  Right? And you can know a lot about
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  someone very, very quickly based on their Twitter profile.
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  So I agree, you know, and there's different ways to like
• 9:07
  hack the the growth hack where he like you you tweet out
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  specific things and obviously you're going to grow a little
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  bit faster, right? But the people that just use
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  Twitter without the growth hacking and they're just putting
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  on their work on there. I think it is a good
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  representation of how valuable your work is, right?
• 9:24
  I think. Yeah.
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  You think about it like more people follow you?
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  Ways I want to talk a little bit about, I want to talk about one
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  of your tweets here. It says, quote, there are
• 9:35
  infinite amount of assets to be chasing a finite amount of
• 9:38
  Bitcoin. It doesn't, how does it matter
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  how much Bitcoin you own? You'll be able to buy things.
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  It doesn't matter how much of anything else you own any amount
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  of Bitcoin will eventually become worth more.
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  If you understand this, or if you understand, yeah.
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  What do you mean by that? Well, that's that's a good
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  question. I was.
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  This is one of the thoughts that for me really Hammered at home.
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  And I think this is one of the things that most people I would
• 10:08
  argue even those people that own Bitcoin don't.
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  Yeah, I appreciate the probability of this idea
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  occurring. So, so I'll speak the idea first
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  and then my guests of the probability of it and folding,
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  the idea is that with every other asset, every other
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  technology, every other system, everything we've ever been able
• 10:26
  to do, there's a way to make more of it, there's a way to
• 10:30
  increase the supply of that thing.
• 10:32
  So, right now, real estate, you know, I'm in a beautiful spot
• 10:36
  right here is always beautiful lake homes or like three more
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  houses being built, you know, granted, there's a more or less
• 10:43
  finite amount of lakefront property, but, you know, we're
• 10:46
  able to build more houses and able to be bigger with more
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  stories and more square footage. And you know, who's to say in
• 10:52
  the future, when we use 10 times 50 times more energy globally
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  that we can just make more lakes and make more Lakefront.
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  You know, who knows? But even real estate.
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  What's often considered one of the most Difficult asses to make
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  more of, you know, one of the slowest assets to develop even
• 11:09
  real estate, were always able to make more real estate and then
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  obviously everything else to a lesser degree.
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  You know, you've gold, you cash, you've Stacks, you have cars,
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  you have all these other Technologies and things that are
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  more common, you know, it's obviously easier to make more
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  and more of those. I mean, you know, most people
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  don't realize it but the vast majority of gold in the world
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  has been produced since 1950. I forget the exact percentage.
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  So I don't want to say that but you can look it up.
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  It's It's pretty easy. I think it's 2/3 or 3/4 or like
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  some really absurd percentage of gold is just been a last 70
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  years and Gold's been the global store value for thousands of
• 11:43
  years. And the vast majority has just
• 11:45
  been crazy, last few decades. And so, basically the
• 11:47
  questionnaire is, well, you know what, if amount of goalie making
• 11:50
  the next 70 decades dwarfs, the total supply of go, we've made a
• 11:53
  last 70 years, you know? And then more about the 70 years
• 11:56
  after that. And again, and again, and again,
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  it's like an exponential curve. And as we progress further in
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  time and the rate of technological It gets better
• 12:04
  that curve just gets steeper and steeper and so the farther out
• 12:07
  you go into the future. To me, it seems logical to
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  assume that the total supply of Any Given asset.
• 12:16
  Only increases exponentially whether we're talking about
• 12:18
  gold, but every talk about real estate or we're talking about
• 12:21
  people's asses to food. I mean, you know, like this is a
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  good wonderful reality. It's good.
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  When housing becomes more abundant, it's good, when food
• 12:29
  becomes more but these are good things.
• 12:31
  And so the main problem We're in now, is that, you know, we're
• 12:35
  looking back and we're at the very top of this exponential
• 12:38
  curve. It's led up to us.
• 12:40
  And now, we're looking forward and the curb only gets steeper.
• 12:44
  And so, the problem is, how am I going to save my money?
• 12:48
  How am I going to save my economic purchasing power, my my
• 12:51
  my energy, my fruit Force physical cost, I'm exerting on
• 12:54
  of the world. How am I going to save that into
• 12:55
  the future? Because I can't save it in Gold
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  because it's total. Supplied goes just going to
• 13:00
  continue to get dumped on faster and faster, and faster, and
• 13:03
  faster. Esther, into the future.
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  I mean, really the best case scenario for total supply of
• 13:09
  gold globally. Shrinking, or diminishing are
• 13:12
  staying? Flat is some sort of
• 13:15
  catastrophe. We have a major war or famine
• 13:17
  or, I mean, it's like, you know, either we are going to have
• 13:19
  hyper abundance of everything or a complete collapse.
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  Like, there's like, I can't see any of their Bill Graham here
• 13:25
  and so, the question becomes. Okay.
• 13:27
  If we we hold hold on a sec. Hold.
• 13:29
  Yeah. Because you buried the lead
• 13:31
  right there. You said that it was Is either
• 13:34
  hyper abundance of anything. Or what was the, what was the
• 13:36
  other one? Like just collapse.
• 13:39
  Why? Why do you say that?
• 13:40
  Well, I why is it so binary? Why is it one or the other?
• 13:44
  Yeah, okay, that's your question.
• 13:47
  I would say the reason is because that's exactly what
• 13:50
  we've been doing for thousands of years and that the momentum
• 13:54
  is moving so quickly of technological change.
• 13:56
  If it were to slow down, it's because a force greater than
• 13:59
  that. Momentum will have had to stop
• 14:01
  that momentum. So the The incentive of the
• 14:04
  monetary incentive and the societal incentive to continue
• 14:07
  technological progress in all facets of life is so great right
• 14:11
  now that the force required to slow that to where we don't have
• 14:15
  that. Hyper abundance would have to be
• 14:17
  so great that to me, it's basically catastrophe.
• 14:20
  So that's the basic idea there. And I mean, I think beyond that
• 14:25
  big picture idea. I think it's also true.
• 14:27
  If we look at specific examples, like if you look at food
• 14:29
  production, I mean, if we don't increase Global food production,
• 14:33
  Action by X percent. Yeah.
• 14:35
  We'll have some sort of global famine and, you know, couple
• 14:38
  decades because the population is growing at an exponential
• 14:42
  rate, we're having so many babies and there's the
• 14:44
  population is growing so much especially in places like Asia
• 14:47
  and Africa that if we don't have that continuing abundance of
• 14:51
  food and real estate and energy grid and you know all and
• 14:55
  medicine and all these things that we need more of well then
• 14:58
  you know, we pretty much bacon, some sort of Crisis down at that
• 15:01
  point and then on top of that, Or of not enough resources, any
• 15:04
  of the political instability that if you have this increasing
• 15:08
  population and the technology isn't able to keep up with that.
• 15:12
  Well, then not only do you have the just the just general
• 15:14
  shortage. But then you have these
• 15:15
  political institutions all fighting against each other war
• 15:18
  and everything of that sort. And so anyway, that's the basic
• 15:22
  idea there, you know, I don't think it's possible to have an
• 15:26
  exponential increase in population and somehow feed them
• 15:32
  all and house them all. All and stop the momentum that
• 15:35
  we're currently on and avoid some sort of disaster.
• 15:39
  So I'm not saying, I know what that would be, but that's the
• 15:41
  basic idea. I don't think there's a way to
• 15:43
  do both. I don't think you can have
• 15:45
  Global prosperity and Global, you know, lack of prosperity
• 15:50
  without some sort of disaster that gets us from one to the
• 15:53
  other. So that's why I view it more or
• 15:55
  less than as binary. And perhaps, perhaps I'm wrong,
• 15:58
  perhaps or some third option but I don't know what it is.
• 16:01
  So yeah. So let's, let's talk a little
• 16:04
  bit about the transition, right? I think a lot of us feel it, you
• 16:11
  know, we have a live show every day, so we're slaves to the new
• 16:15
  cycle. So we were in this very unique
• 16:17
  position where we because we have to cover the news daily.
• 16:20
  We see the ominous clouds at moving ever, so slowly closer to
• 16:24
  us. I do believe that it's going to
• 16:29
  be a little bit darker before it gets brighter.
• 16:32
  I do believe that it's going to I agree with you.
• 16:36
  I just don't see. How did you see that tweet by
• 16:40
  Lynn Alden? Where she and it was like, it
• 16:43
  was like a parabolic tweet and she basically posted like this
• 16:47
  chart is real. It's the amount of us, the
• 16:49
  amount of debt that the u.s. government will have and it and
• 16:52
  it just goes on forever and then you're like in in 20 and 20
• 16:56
  years. R20, like, how, how could they
• 16:58
  pay for this, you know, so is that what you're referring to up
• 17:02
  to you, if you could be? So kind, could you pull it up?
• 17:04
  So we could show everyone visually?
• 17:05
  Yeah, we're against its. I'm laughing because it's so
• 17:09
  bad. I don't know which chart you're
• 17:10
  talking about. I don't know if you're talking
• 17:11
  about exponential interest payments or exponential seat.
• 17:14
  Yeah, that's not even why I thought you were talking about,
• 17:15
  you know, like that's not the one that's not.
• 17:17
  Yeah, that's not the one off T. Oh, okay.
• 17:18
  Yeah, wrong exponential. Chart of impending disaster.
• 17:21
  Whoops, is find the right one. But yeah, it's so your to your
• 17:25
  question. Or to your statement.
• 17:28
  I think you're probably right with how it gets darker for gets
• 17:31
  light, although I do think it depends on what worldview you
• 17:34
  looking from. So, you know, people often like
• 17:37
  to compare the United States to Rome, which I guess has, you
• 17:41
  know, eerily number Theory, number of similarities but I
• 17:45
  don't know if it's the best example.
• 17:47
  But either way, you know, like if we look at Rome I mean yeah
• 17:49
  if you were in Rome, it just got darker and darker and darker
• 17:53
  until Rome collapsed. But I mean other places the
• 17:55
  world actually did. Quite well during that time and
• 17:57
  why was it like? Well, it was getting darker and
• 18:00
  darker and Rome. And so, people were leaving and
• 18:03
  going to these other places and like, I talked about, in
• 18:05
  Preston's podcast, it's like this whole cycle of Empires and
• 18:09
  why one rises in the ashes of the other.
• 18:11
  It's all demographics, it's all technology.
• 18:13
  It's all, you know, it's just all basic incentives.
• 18:16
  If you have one Empire, You've Won political system is
• 18:19
  beginning to deteriorate or is towards the end of its
• 18:21
  deterioration. What are people going to do?
• 18:23
  They're going to flee to the new system?
• 18:25
  They're going to flee to the new political vision.
• 18:27
  And they're going to take all their intelligence with them,
• 18:29
  all their talent with them. And of course, frankly a lot of
• 18:31
  people that leave first are the ones that are the most ambitious
• 18:34
  and the most talented. And you know, essentially what
• 18:37
  you do is you like kick start this hyperdrive of abundance and
• 18:41
  production you know, well before the collapse is fully occurred
• 18:43
  and so, yeah, I do think it will get darker, but I think it
• 18:46
  depends. What Paradigm you looking from?
• 18:49
  I think if I don't know if they pull up the chart yet but if
• 18:51
  we're looking from the perspective of the current more
• 18:56
  or less School, Global political Reserve currency system being,
• 19:00
  you know, treasuries cash petrodollar, whatever you wanna
• 19:02
  call it. I mean, I think it's just going
• 19:04
  to get darker and I probably shouldn't say that with a smile
• 19:07
  but I don't see any other path forward.
• 19:10
  I mean we had the other chart that we took down a minute ago
• 19:14
  of CPI. We had this one that's just as
• 19:17
  exponential and just as catastrophic so this is what
• 19:21
  you're describing like this is we're describing where it's
• 19:25
  basically binary things. Break.
• 19:27
  You know why? I didn't see it.
• 19:28
  Luke is because we're in the thick of it, right?
• 19:30
  And some hot sometimes. Especially when you're looking
• 19:33
  at history, it's really difficult to zoom out.
• 19:35
  It's really difficult to get a perspective on things sometimes.
• 19:40
  Yeah, yeah, it definitely is now, you think, I think that's
• 19:43
  one of the most difficult things for people to do is to realize
• 19:46
  where they aren't history. And really, you know, the
• 19:50
  people, if you look back in history, the people that make
• 19:53
  the most money not that that's the most important thing in
• 19:55
  life, but the people that Make the most money.
• 19:57
  The people that are the most prepared in the people that
• 20:00
  have, you know, more or less, make the large Legacy for
• 20:04
  themselves. Are those that solve the
• 20:06
  problems of Tomorrow, the ones, the one the people that solve
• 20:09
  the problems of Tomorrow, the problems that don't even exist
• 20:11
  yet. Those are the people that really
• 20:13
  have an impact. It's not even people that solve
• 20:14
  today's problems. So what's up?
• 20:15
  Tomorrow's problems and I think as this curve technology gets
• 20:20
  steeper and steeper and steeper that's only going to become more
• 20:23
  important like right now, if we were to picture the ratio of
• 20:26
  people there Solving today's problems versus the people are
• 20:28
  solving tomorrow's problems. I would say, most of the
• 20:31
  bitcoiners are in that latter group solving tomorrow's
• 20:33
  problems of the world. That is manifesting into
• 20:37
  existence, quicker and quicker. But I think as that curve gets
• 20:40
  steeper that ratios only going to get larger and larger and
• 20:43
  larger. And in the future, I think, the
• 20:46
  economic financial and societal incentive for people to only
• 20:49
  continue thinking about the future if they're working, is
• 20:53
  only going to get greater. Because the economic incentive
• 20:55
  will only grow. And the amount of time it will
• 20:58
  take to get to those problems of tomorrow.
• 21:01
  But only shrink and so there you know there's just lower risk in
• 21:04
  projecting forward to that. Anyway, that's more of a larger
• 21:07
  idea but they yeah, going back to the Chart there of.
• 21:13
  Yeah, I would guess. Is that the u.s. or what was it?
• 21:16
  You mind pulling up that chart. Again, I'd like to look at that.
• 21:18
  Yeah, I'm smart. I'm and it makes it so it makes
• 21:21
  sense. That makes me happy.
• 21:26
  Chart, that's not lens chart, that's the official chart,
• 21:29
  right? Do understand that right from
• 21:31
  the treasury, yast Oracle and current policy projections for
• 21:35
  debt held by the public 1982 2096, this store called
• 21:41
  projected. I mean, it's like it's like it's
• 21:44
  left over 100 percent now are saying it's going to be seven
• 21:47
  hundred percent of GDP by the end of the century and it's like
• 21:52
  that's today's numbers. That's assuming we have zero
• 21:55
  Wars. We have zero resistance.
• 21:56
  Options with zero lockdowns and zero diseases.
• 22:00
  We have zero more interest or desire to create entitlement
• 22:04
  programs. It's like like this is their own
• 22:07
  admission of, just how absurd is going to get and I listen to a
• 22:13
  little bit of drum pedals testimony before.
• 22:15
  Congress was that just yesterday?
• 22:17
  Goodness, I feel like grammar go but I was listening to a little
• 22:19
  bit of it and he was like, yeah, basically everything's fine as
• 22:22
  long as we raise the debt ceiling and you know, yeah,
• 22:26
  that's Okay. It was it's very strange that
• 22:30
  people can listen to that and not feel that the training, the
• 22:33
  training wheels and are coming off of the bike.
• 22:36
  And that were, you know, we don't know how to ride it, you
• 22:38
  know, it's it's quite funny, you know, basically the idea being
• 22:41
  that, yeah, the debt level as sustainable as long as we can
• 22:44
  expand forever. It's just, you know, the only
• 22:48
  thing that gives the dollar its value is its scarce in relation
• 22:51
  to other things in the world. And when people begin to lose
• 22:56
  faith in that, And what we have to release the valve a little
• 22:58
  bit and cause it to expand, so it doesn't pop.
• 23:01
  You know, you're what you're doing is you're decreasing
• 23:04
  societal trust exponentially until people just don't anymore.
• 23:08
  100%, let's talk a little bit about the consequences of this
• 23:12
  clown World stuff. Right.
• 23:14
  I think this, when you were talking this tweet that you said
• 23:17
  really resonated with me, says, quote markets, feel increasingly
• 23:21
  disconnected from reality, because the Ledger at which you
• 23:24
  price those assets isn't it ass? As in is increasingly detached
• 23:28
  with reality math and the law of conservation of energy, the
• 23:32
  problem disparity isn't in the asset.
• 23:34
  It's the currency wake up Bitcoin now and I would even say
• 23:39
  that it's not only markets. I think that this has a
• 23:41
  psychological effect on people as well.
• 23:44
  And I think that people in here because a lot of people don't
• 23:48
  understand and I'm sure you understand, Luke right money,
• 23:51
  plays an essential role in human society and if that money is
• 23:56
  Elected from reality. I think there's a lot of
• 23:58
  consequences to that that I think a lot of people don't
• 24:02
  fully appreciate Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 24:06
  I think a lot of that just comes to our brains.
• 24:09
  Frankly, one of the reasons I talk so much in my threads and
• 24:13
  my videos about How human brains like to think in linear terms.
• 24:18
  I think that's really important people understand because
• 24:22
  sometimes the impression comes off from bitcoiners.
• 24:25
  I think that, oh, you're just stupid.
• 24:27
  You don't, we talk about Bitcoins could take over it and,
• 24:29
  you know, it's whether it's true or not.
• 24:32
  I think I think at the end of the day, it just comes down to
• 24:35
  psychology. I think it just comes down to a
• 24:37
  human brains are good at doing and human, brains are really
• 24:40
  good at predicting the future based on a given set of rules.
• 24:44
  You know, I Used to add a being the same length of time.
• 24:48
  I'm used to the seasons being the same length of time.
• 24:51
  I'm used to having, you know, this meaning roughly the same
• 24:53
  number of calories every day. You know, our brains are
• 24:56
  hard-wired to think about the future based on a set of
• 25:00
  presuppositions that remain constant at a linear rate and
• 25:05
  this is problem. This beautiful thing with
• 25:08
  technology. It's exponential and things get
• 25:10
  better exponentially. But the problem or the downside
• 25:12
  of that is that we Face the inevitable transition.
• 25:15
  Costs of these paradigms upgrading at a faster and faster
• 25:18
  rate, you know, the internet is one of those examples that, you
• 25:21
  know, just 25 years ago, the world is entirely different and
• 25:25
  most people. Most experts, 25 years ago,
• 25:28
  couldn't predict how different the world is today and laughably
• 25:31
  wrong and One Direction or the other.
• 25:33
  You know, it's because our models basically break down, our
• 25:36
  assumptions, basically breakdown and are envisioning of the
• 25:39
  future world basically breaks down because it goes against our
• 25:43
  brains, it goes against our intuitive.
• 25:45
  Thinking. And so yeah, when it comes to
• 25:48
  money, we like to look out in the world and we like to think,
• 25:51
  okay, this house cost this number of linear units when your
• 25:55
  political currency units and, you know, that works on a
• 25:59
  day-to-day week-to-week month-to-month basis.
• 26:01
  But when you start zooming out and looking at the whole picture
• 26:04
  and logarithmic terms and not linear terms, all of a sudden
• 26:07
  you realize how how flawed thinking that is.
• 26:10
  And so regarding that tweet out if we can pull it back up again
• 26:13
  but absolutely. But that's the idea.
• 26:15
  Yeah, that essential idea. I'm trying to hammer home there
• 26:18
  is that right now most people, you know, just every day not
• 26:22
  even within the coin you're like, oh my goodness, real
• 26:24
  estate market is so hot. Oh my, I can't believe stocks
• 26:27
  are so high stock is going to crash.
• 26:28
  Oh man, this is, this is crazy. That's crazy.
• 26:30
  What's going on? Why like my business not find
• 26:33
  people to work for me? Why are there so many people
• 26:35
  doing this? And why our politicians lying so
• 26:37
  much more than these two? Or perhaps even more
• 26:39
  importantly, getting away with the lies and much more bold
• 26:42
  lies. You know, why is all this
• 26:43
  happening and the point Tweet being that as The Ledger.
• 26:48
  We priced everything within becomes corrupted our perception
• 26:52
  on those things, becomes corrupted.
• 26:54
  And so then we assume that those things are corrupted, you know,
• 26:57
  like right now, real estate, you know, is very very high prices
• 27:02
  are crazy, high prices. If I got more in the last two
• 27:05
  years in the couple years before the recession, the great
• 27:09
  financial crisis in 2008 mean it's like prices are
• 27:13
  astronomically absurd, because people know it most People cite
• 27:15
  it. Most people talk about it and
• 27:17
  people assume that there for the housing market is a bubble and
• 27:20
  it's going to crash and that was true in 2008 before 2008.
• 27:26
  And I think it's true today to some degree.
• 27:29
  However, what if the majority of that bubble both in 2008 and
• 27:32
  today is actually and the currency itself?
• 27:36
  What if real estate is not in the bubble would have stocks are
• 27:39
  in the bubble? What if the bubble is the
• 27:41
  currency? What you're valuing those
• 27:43
  assitive. And that's a really important
• 27:45
  distinction, because if the asset itself gold real estate
• 27:49
  stocks, whatever. If the asset itself is the
• 27:51
  bubble, then, what happens? Well, it comes down in price and
• 27:54
  it crashes or collapses, it's, you know, the end of that era.
• 27:58
  But if its currency is to bubble and that bubble continues to
• 28:02
  grow, because we have an artificial issuer of said,
• 28:06
  Bubble AKA said currency at the centralized point that can just
• 28:10
  continue to distort reality, it early, well, then it's the
• 28:14
  crash. Quote unquote, it's precise
• 28:16
  opposite, if it's the acid, that's crashing, it crashes.
• 28:18
  In terms of the currency, if it's a currency that crashes,
• 28:21
  it's the asset that just crashes up forever, denominated in that
• 28:26
  currency. So, anyway, it's it's a very
• 28:30
  difficult thing to explain to people, but in my experience,
• 28:33
  I've never seen somebody that's understood this principle.
• 28:36
  It's ever been able to win, see it?
• 28:38
  Because you're like, oh my goodness.
• 28:39
  It makes perfect sense. Why the everything but why are
• 28:42
  stocks and why are all these Is going up exponentially is
• 28:45
  because currency is being devalues so fast and and if you
• 28:49
  look into the future and you you know that changes your entire
• 28:53
  view, what the future look like and that changes your entire
• 28:56
  actions and it forces you to realize oh wait a minute,
• 28:58
  Bitcoin is not this asset, that's becoming more and more of
• 29:02
  a bubble going up. Exponentially.
• 29:04
  It's the value of the dollar, in relation to it.
• 29:06
  That's going down exponentially. I really went into that in a
• 29:09
  couple of my threats but hopefully it made my point
• 29:11
  there. That, is that distinction, so
• 29:13
  hard for people? And I think at the end of the
• 29:15
  day, it's just because our brains, including mine, take a
• 29:18
  long time to ship thinking. Like for me it's years to
• 29:21
  understand. Yes.
• 29:22
  Yeah. And the analogy that I always
• 29:25
  use it and I know exactly what you're talking about.
• 29:27
  Looking the analogy that I was used on simply to describe this
• 29:30
  phenomenon is called the Fiat Matrix, right?
• 29:34
  You spent most most people spent the majority of their lives in
• 29:37
  the Fiat Matrix and they get unplugged and they get
• 29:40
  disconnected there, they change their operating system to
• 29:42
  bitcoin. It's a you have to look at
• 29:45
  totally, your perception of reality changes.
• 29:48
  All of a sudden you can, you can afford things.
• 29:52
  It's not a matter of whether you can afford things as how long do
• 29:54
  I have to wait? Right?
• 29:56
  If, of course, if you work hard and all that good stuff.
• 29:59
  Anyways, so you mentioned something there and it reminded
• 30:02
  me of this tweet, right? You said you're not an idiot if
• 30:05
  you don't understand Bitcoin yet and here you said, but but
• 30:08
  considering that Bitcoin was designed to force asset prices
• 30:11
  towards zero has been fulfilling that for Eighteen years and that
• 30:15
  there is zero competition. You're an idiot.
• 30:17
  If you don't allocate just point 12 percent just in case y Point,
• 30:22
  12 percent that number is caputi.
• 30:25
  I mean it's more or less arbitrary that that's part of
• 30:28
  the long enough. Luke what's going on?
• 30:32
  No, I went into it, the whole thread, how I talked about how,
• 30:36
  you know, basically what I did in that thread for those that
• 30:38
  haven't read it, is basically I said, okay, here's stays current
• 30:41
  wealth distribution, okay, here's The current number of
• 30:44
  Bitcoins remaining and will ever remain.
• 30:47
  And I simply put the two together and I said, okay, if
• 30:50
  your net worth is this, you know, I just ranked a whole
• 30:53
  bunch of levels of network and I was like, okay, you know, point
• 30:56
  one percent was an allocation of you know, middle class, you know
• 31:01
  comfortable you know 800 thousand three million dollar
• 31:04
  net worth something like that. I remember exactly.
• 31:06
  But you know, it was like, okay, my the point of my friend there
• 31:09
  before that being that To your question earlier like if Bitcoin
• 31:13
  is a closed system and if it has if it's like a Mona Lisa with a
• 31:17
  finite frame and there's only a fixed amount of you know, square
• 31:21
  inches within this system, it's like okay well then if you
• 31:24
  compare that to the exponentially increasing supply
• 31:29
  of everything else, eventually whatever portion of that closed
• 31:33
  system, you buy will inevitably come worth more than the rest of
• 31:36
  it? That's kind of the idea, your
• 31:38
  but we were talking about or briefly mentioned earlier.
• 31:41
  And so then that's the basic point there that it's like even
• 31:43
  a point, one percent or point, five percent or 1 percent,
• 31:47
  allocation theoretically should be enough to protect the rest of
• 31:52
  your portfolio because let's take a simple and it will say 1
• 31:55
  percent, you know, if you have 99 percent of your net worth or
• 31:59
  your monetizable value in real estate, stocks bonds, Fine, Art
• 32:03
  cash, treasuries, whatever, you know, 99 percent versus 1% and
• 32:07
  close monetary system. Name of it's irrelevant.
• 32:10
  We happen to call it big. And if that's the case, then as
• 32:13
  this ice cube shrinks more and more, and more exponentially.
• 32:17
  And this one absorbs that value that's being lost, eventually
• 32:20
  the value of this becomes greater than everything else.
• 32:24
  And so the basic point there and that thread being that, you
• 32:27
  know, you don't have to understand understand Bitcoin
• 32:29
  fully you don't have to go all in on bitcoin.
• 32:31
  Don't have to take out a loan to buy a whole bit.
• 32:34
  You don't have to buy certain amount of Bitcoin.
• 32:36
  It's just when it comes to allocation, most people don't
• 32:39
  realize that. A coin is not something that you
• 32:42
  add to a diversified portfolio and it's participle button like
• 32:45
  no Bitcoins designed to negate the need for Diversified
• 32:49
  portfolio entirely. And so if you have this little
• 32:52
  Diversified portfolio, and if we assume Bitcoin is the technology
• 32:56
  that is trying to make it irrelevant, it's like it's
• 33:00
  survived for 14 years. It's a filling every prediction
• 33:04
  by its early Founders, that it would have.
• 33:07
  It has, you know what ninety nine?
• 33:08
  Point, eight, seven, three, four, Set up time, something
• 33:11
  like that. Ridiculous.
• 33:12
  You know, it's like there is there's no competition.
• 33:16
  And if this thing nearly continues to survive, it will
• 33:19
  become like a global monetary Singularity and so, you know.
• 33:24
  But like I said, in that thread, I try not to mock people a
• 33:27
  really cool people or put people down that, don't understand.
• 33:29
  Like, I know, most people don't understand it, and frankly, most
• 33:32
  people are going to understand it for years.
• 33:34
  But if you look at something and say, you know like take the
• 33:38
  internet, you know, if I say to you the internet, this is a big
• 33:41
  deal. It's going to absorb all Global
• 33:43
  Communications networks. It's like you think you're safe
• 33:45
  with your book stores and with your codec stock and your Sears
• 33:49
  stock and it you know y'all it's all your stocks and your
• 33:51
  Diversified assets and all these things.
• 33:54
  Like, who knows? Maybe the internet fails but the
• 33:58
  fact that survived and in Bitcoins case for 14 years was
• 34:01
  Zero oversight and is only getting stronger and only will
• 34:05
  continue to get stronger and more decentralized and more
• 34:08
  difficult to stop and more difficult to censor.
• 34:10
  It's like, you don't have to understand how those new thing
• 34:13
  works where we're talking about Bitcoin, talk about internet.
• 34:16
  We're top of the locomotive. It's like if you don't just
• 34:19
  take, a tiny minuscule amount of your allocation and put it in
• 34:24
  that just to protect the rest of it.
• 34:26
  Like, think of it like insurance.
• 34:29
  It's like, I think that's a really, really bad idea.
• 34:31
  This is one of the things that Greg Faust talks about that, why
• 34:34
  I like him. That just because, you know,
• 34:35
  he's from the bond world. And so he's from that deep, deep
• 34:40
  traditional Finance world and he talks continually about how Risk
• 34:43
  Managers are making one of the greatest mistakes of all time
• 34:46
  and not allocating to bitcoin like a zero percent.
• 34:49
  Allocation, a Bitcoin is so much worse than a one percent or 0.5
• 34:53
  percent or 0.1 percent. You know.
• 34:56
  Anyway, I've made my point but that's the basic idea they are
• 34:59
  the visual that chart might be nice to that.
• 35:02
  Goes back to an earlier idea of what we were talking about.
• 35:04
  About yeah we're going to paradigms.
• 35:07
  Yeah 100%. I'm going to pull up the visual
• 35:09
  because I love people really appreciate the visual so let me
• 35:13
  pull it up and yeah look of course you know, you're
• 35:17
  preaching you're preaching to the choir here and I'm like,
• 35:18
  yeah, I absolutely 100% agree with you, but I think it's the
• 35:22
  way that you described it, that really resonates with people.
• 35:25
  So here, it says, for audio listener, says continued, 90
• 35:29
  percent losses, faster, and faster forever.
• 35:32
  And then, the old world is already Ugly ancient.
• 35:35
  And then it's this idea of this exponential growth.
• 35:38
  And I would you say the supply you're talking at?
• 35:40
  This will also applies to technology right?
• 35:42
  Like yeah. And I feel it right.
• 35:45
  Just like you know I think 20 years from now or 20 years, 20
• 35:49
  year, I'm a little bit older than you look but like, you
• 35:50
  know, 20 years ago when you know, I was watching.
• 35:54
  I was a little kid and I was watching VHS tapes, I would have
• 35:57
  never imagined, you know, having this software where people could
• 36:02
  just communicate through video hundreds.
• 36:04
  If not thousands of miles away from each other instantaneously
• 36:08
  and then at the same time live stream that to all the corners
• 36:12
  of the earth, you know, via the Internet, right?
• 36:14
  So, is that what you mean or is this only referring to a
• 36:17
  specific thing? No, no, that's definitely
• 36:20
  referring to all technology. One of my favorite metaphors and
• 36:23
  or comparisons, probably the metaphor, or my favorite
• 36:27
  comparisons is the internet. Just because, like, most people
• 36:30
  even my age can't deny. Just how painful?
• 36:33
  Yeah, obviously this, you know, One of the things that's talked
• 36:35
  about in Preston's show, in a couple, other shows is like take
• 36:38
  the internet. We are still in the early days
• 36:41
  of the internet and again because we think in linear
• 36:44
  terms, we don't think about that because we're just looking our
• 36:47
  own life and we look backwards and we think look at how much my
• 36:49
  life has already changed. Because internet, we forget to
• 36:52
  think about the future and realize.
• 36:54
  It's only going to change that the air.
• 36:56
  It's going to cause my life is only going to get more dramatic
• 36:58
  you know today roughly 60 65 percent of the world has
• 37:03
  internet access. So there's what almost half of
• 37:07
  the world population doesn't use internet and oh by the way,
• 37:11
  we're going to add another couple billion people, the
• 37:12
  global population, a few over the next few decades.
• 37:14
  So it's like, you know, theoretically the total number
• 37:17
  of users of the internet will easily double just in the next
• 37:21
  what decade, two decades, three decades, you don't want to pick
• 37:25
  a number of years, you know, people smarter than me could map
• 37:27
  that out for you. But it's like, you know, people
• 37:30
  think that it won't be a big deal until it's already
• 37:34
  everywhere. And you know, I would, I would
• 37:36
  disagree with that I think again, using internet as a
• 37:39
  comparison by the time, the internet got to ten percent
• 37:42
  Global adoption. Or 15% Global adoption is like
• 37:44
  it already changed the world at a taken, hold of like, whole
• 37:49
  younger generation with social media, everything.
• 37:50
  Right. And now we're, you know, at the
• 37:52
  roughly two-thirds Mark, or just under the 2/3, Mark.
• 37:55
  So anyway, I think Bitcoin is going to be a similar way.
• 37:58
  I think that most people are going to ignore it because they
• 38:02
  think that oh that's you know whatever you know, maybe that's
• 38:04
  way up there. Yeah.
• 38:06
  But the problem is that the air, it took roughly 30 years
• 38:08
  Bitcoins, roughly 14 years in and because it's comp annual
• 38:13
  growth, rate of adoption is so much faster.
• 38:15
  The internet's edit, same age added, same number of users that
• 38:18
  the curve is going to be much steeper than the internet and
• 38:22
  and so, you know, even frankly, by that time I think Bitcoins
• 38:25
  that 10% Global adoption. It's like the world will look so
• 38:28
  different than it does today will be almost recognizable.
• 38:32
  You know, I don't, I don't think one has to wait.
• 38:35
  Thirty years or 20 years to see massive declines in the current
• 38:38
  system and massive explosions of growth and incoming system.
• 38:43
  And so kind of like how earlier I was talking about how it
• 38:45
  depends, what Paradigm you're in, whether the world is getting
• 38:47
  darker, getting brighter, kind of like that orange line and the
• 38:50
  red line and the chart and my chart that you pull up, I think
• 38:54
  it's like the same idea. You know, I think if we're
• 38:57
  looking from the perspective outwards from the political
• 39:00
  currency unit system, I think today is literally The Darkest
• 39:04
  Day Hold on, as long as I keep going to that because that was
• 39:10
  my next question. Political currency.
• 39:13
  What do you mean by that brother?
• 39:15
  Why did you call it that? I'm gonna pull up, what?
• 39:18
  Why you answer that? I'll pull up the the Samson
• 39:20
  think the Samson Mount thing that you retweeted?
• 39:23
  Okay, sir. Yeah, why that term?
• 39:26
  Yeah, people love that term. That's it's funny because I
• 39:29
  wasn't intending it to be this big term people to start using,
• 39:31
  but people love it and they're posting it and I don't know if I
• 39:34
  was the first one to come. With it or not, if someone can
• 39:36
  find an earlier, one that said it, cuz I don't remember where
• 39:39
  it came from. I don't member the moment.
• 39:41
  I either thought of it or found it.
• 39:42
  So I may not have come up with it but I don't remember.
• 39:45
  But anyway, that the basic idea being that all money is energy.
• 39:49
  Gold is energy. You know, gold is metallic
• 39:51
  energy that we've monetized as a form of money.
• 39:55
  You know, what is real estate? Well, real estate's, a consumer,
• 39:57
  good, you know, takes energy to make and we monetize that you
• 40:01
  don't take, take the cash in your wallet or or the io Using
• 40:05
  your bank, the digital money in your bank, what is that?
• 40:08
  Well, it's also energy, it's also monetized.
• 40:11
  But what is how do we Define that it's not?
• 40:14
  The energy is not in the paper. The energy is in the political
• 40:18
  regime at the political system that backs that paper and so
• 40:23
  it's like the US dollar or the Euro or the energy want or any
• 40:26
  other currency. Any other fiat currency, what
• 40:29
  people typically call fiat currency.
• 40:31
  Really is basically just you're owning a Porsche Of The Ledger
• 40:35
  of that bank of that Central Bank of that government, you
• 40:38
  know, and that government survives is a function of its
• 40:41
  political influence on the world.
• 40:43
  And so when you own US Dollars, why are you a stellar system?
• 40:46
  And it's like, well US Dollars on the world or in such demand
• 40:49
  over other Fiat currencies because the political might and
• 40:53
  strength of the US Army and the US Navy and US Congress.
• 40:58
  The US Constitution is much more globally, dominant and much more
• 41:01
  powerful than the rest of the world's Nations.
• 41:04
  And so, you know, Know, if you own a Euro, if you own Euros,
• 41:09
  you're basically rely on the political energy of the Eurozone
• 41:12
  and the in the continent we call Europe and if you're relying on
• 41:16
  the US dollar, you're basically dependent on the United States
• 41:19
  of America. And so that's basic idea there
• 41:21
  that you're owning the energy of a political system and you
• 41:25
  dominate that in currency units within that system.
• 41:28
  And so, obviously the problem becomes in that, that political
• 41:31
  regime wants to issue more currency units to pay off its
• 41:33
  debt. And that weakens the overall,
• 41:35
  Political energy of a system so it's like a double whammy,
• 41:37
  you're having the basement and dilution of the number of units
• 41:41
  in your pocket and simultaneously, they're reducing
• 41:43
  their own Global political influence.
• 41:45
  So that's what it's like to exponential Trends and top of
• 41:48
  each other. It's like a super exponential
• 41:50
  decline where not only is the total political influence
• 41:54
  declining, but the value of your, the relative value of that
• 41:59
  political influence, on the global stage is decreasing and
• 42:03
  your share of that. Global pie is Creasing
• 42:05
  simultaneously. So hopefully that makes sense
• 42:07
  but that's the basic idea. It makes total sense, but I want
• 42:10
  to focus on this last part right where it says dark times as well
• 42:14
  as bright and of the tunnel ahead.
• 42:18
  And because I want to go back to that, because it sure doesn't
• 42:21
  feel like right now, Mark, caught, Mark Moss, calls it Peak
• 42:24
  centralization, right? Sure.
• 42:26
  Doesn't feel like the Pete. The political influence is
• 42:30
  decreasing. I would say that it feels like
• 42:32
  it's like it speaking. If Like this, this is I don't
• 42:36
  think we've ever seen government as big as it is today.
• 42:40
  So are you saying as time progresses and more people
• 42:46
  migrate to a Bitcoin standard that's when the political
• 42:49
  influence? Like, that's when that's when
• 42:51
  politics kind of takes a backseat.
• 42:54
  No, I think it's true today. I think it depends on your frame
• 42:56
  of reference. You know.
• 42:57
  You said that it feels like the political is peaking looks like.
• 42:59
  Well, you could say it speaking but you also could say it's
• 43:02
  about to be dwarfed by whatever's next.
• 43:05
  You know, it depends your frame of reference.
• 43:06
  Yeah, looking backwards over the last 50, 60, 70 years, like
• 43:09
  political influence, globally is like more terrifying than it's
• 43:13
  ever been. However, if you look for the
• 43:15
  next 30 Years, I hate to say it. But I think that we are in the
• 43:19
  good times, say quote unquote, I think whatever level of
• 43:22
  centralization or corruption in this current Paradigm, is only
• 43:26
  gonna be worse than the future and the past.
• 43:28
  And if instead of saying, or instead of viewing the world as
• 43:31
  getting darker and darker because we're looking at from
• 43:33
  this political ends, we look at From the Sutherlands, I think
• 43:37
  the world is getting brighter. I mean, you know, like like take
• 43:39
  like take Bitcoin as an example. You know, it's hash rate is
• 43:42
  either at all-time Highs, are near all-time highs, it's price
• 43:46
  is currently in a bear Market, but its current prices above the
• 43:51
  all-time highs of 2017, you know, by a considerable margin
• 43:54
  and its trading volume is considerably higher.
• 43:56
  I mean, it's like, you know, it's like right now, besides
• 43:59
  price, not being an ultra-high, pretty much every metric for
• 44:02
  Bitcoins and all-time high at Waldo.
• 44:05
  Allergists. Excuse me, while addresses that
• 44:08
  have one Bitcoins to all-time high.
• 44:09
  The number of nodes is an all-time high but of cash rate
• 44:11
  is at an all-time high. The number of nations, the own
• 44:14
  Bitcoin on their balance, sheets is at an all-time high.
• 44:16
  The never mentions have it, the legal tenders, an all-time high.
• 44:18
  It's like, for Bitcoin. It, it has never been in as good
• 44:23
  of a spot as it is today. And I think looking forward,
• 44:25
  it's like today are the dark times for Bitcoin.
• 44:28
  It's only going to get better. So I think everything you're
• 44:30
  saying is correct, but I think it depends on perspective for
• 44:34
  looking in that one. Second of the red line that goes
• 44:36
  down. It continued 90% loss is
• 44:38
  forever. It's like you know looking back
• 44:40
  it's never been worse but looking forward it's never going
• 44:42
  to be as good as it is right now.
• 44:44
  And that's why it's so important for people to get off 0 because
• 44:46
  you know, these two lines, the one that's going up in the u.s.
• 44:49
  going down and the disparity from the one line, decreasing to
• 44:54
  the other light, increasing only gets larger.
• 44:56
  So right now the difference is not very much but continue it
• 44:59
  out a few years. The difference will get much
• 45:01
  worse and then you know it just gets more and more.
• 45:05
  Rachel. So, you know, say if we go out
• 45:07
  20 years throughout 10 years, or 15 years, or however many years
• 45:11
  you want to, if we assume that the current system is much more
• 45:15
  corrupt than just today, I was much more centralized much with
• 45:18
  much more information and much more chaos is today, and we also
• 45:22
  assume that Bitcoin is doing much better than it is today.
• 45:25
  Not just price, but also like the network and the network
• 45:28
  stability. It's like their transition costs
• 45:30
  for people, trying to escape the wind, get into the other.
• 45:32
  It is just Comes only more difficult.
• 45:36
  You know, it's kind of like transitioning from newspaper to
• 45:40
  online web articles as a media company in 2004/2005 versus 2010
• 45:47
  versus 2020. It's like the transition cost of
• 45:50
  you migrating your audience from one medium for one Paradigm to
• 45:53
  the other medium, a time only gets exponentially more
• 45:56
  difficult and you know at what point you're going to go
• 45:59
  bankrupt but inevitably you will.
• 46:01
  It's just a matter of when and likewise today if it's like a
• 46:04
  never leave it. Queen will take over everything
• 46:06
  else. I believe it's just a matter of
• 46:08
  when and the probability of that happening in my view will only
• 46:12
  go up exponentially and the transition cost of moving over
• 46:17
  will only go up, which is why I think it's completely idiotic to
• 46:20
  have a zero percent allocation, like it's been 14 years.
• 46:23
  How many more years do you want? You know, it's like if you're a
• 46:26
  risk manager, how many more years do you want under Bitcoins
• 46:30
  built? It's like you know Federal
• 46:32
  Reserve is barely a 30 percent uptime it.
• 46:35
  Not even that Bitcoin is up like 24/7 365 with zero audits work.
• 46:41
  She made a Fed is like zero Audits and Bitcoin is not every
• 46:43
  10 minutes. It's like, you know, it's very
• 46:47
  concerning and I think and I genuinely think most people are
• 46:50
  going to learn the hard way. Most people will learn but
• 46:53
  they'll either learn through giving it an extreme amount of
• 46:57
  thought kind of like how we're doing now and then they'll be
• 47:00
  transition before it's happened or they will be forced to learn
• 47:03
  through the brutal nature of creative destruction.
• 47:06
  And I think the people that should be making the transition
• 47:09
  right now are the precise kinds of people that will make the
• 47:12
  transition to late. Because again if we think of
• 47:15
  this from a psychology perspective okay financial
• 47:17
  advisors money managers hedge fund managers and people that
• 47:22
  manage political currency units have been trained for thousands
• 47:25
  of hours to understand how the political currency unit system
• 47:28
  works. And where its risks are and how
• 47:30
  to allocate for risk within that system, they are not trained to
• 47:34
  think outside. This is there never trained to
• 47:36
  think outside the system. It's like, yeah, I've given this
• 47:39
  metaphor before, but I think it's worth saying again.
• 47:41
  It's like taking someone in the early 19th century.
• 47:45
  The 1800's there has been breeding horses their entire
• 47:48
  life. They went to school for four
• 47:51
  years or eight years or perhaps even 12 years to learn how to
• 47:55
  breed horses and make better horses, stronger.
• 47:57
  Horses were beautiful horses, you know, whatever your metrics
• 47:59
  are for determining the best horse, they've been trained for
• 48:03
  so long to make the best horse. That when you present to them a
• 48:06
  locomotive, it has zero no indication to them of being of
• 48:13
  something of value. And it's not because they're
• 48:15
  stupid is just their brains have been trained for thousands of
• 48:17
  hours to not recognize that they aren't being trained, they
• 48:23
  aren't being trained with the question.
• 48:24
  How do we get the most number of people from point A to point B
• 48:27
  in the most efficient manner possible?
• 48:28
  They've been trained, how do we make a better horse?
• 48:31
  And there are two very different things.
• 48:32
  And likewise today, I believe our He's in our money, managers
• 48:37
  that have been trained for decades to to how do I, how do I
• 48:42
  diversify? My purchasing power in Annex
• 48:45
  basket of assets, Securities, and consumer goods, to lose the
• 48:50
  least amount of purchasing power possible as a currency basis.
• 48:53
  Like that's what they're trying to do, they're not trained to
• 48:55
  think. How do I find the best money
• 48:57
  possible? Yeah, yeah, holy cow man.
• 49:04
  You're on fire, bro. Okay, so I want to focus on this
• 49:08
  thread and I think this is the, this is your most well-known
• 49:12
  thread. I want to start off with this,
• 49:14
  right? So give me one second, here we
• 49:18
  go, there you go. All right, so let's say
• 49:21
  comments, by the way, you have a great audience.
• 49:26
  It's always a danger to the live shows, the live chat.
• 49:28
  Yeah. Okay, so this is how much
• 49:35
  Bitcoin to get rich, fun your lifestyle.
• 49:38
  How little bit coin to protect yourself against inevitable?
• 49:41
  Inflation Bank runs and Fiat demise, are you too late to
• 49:45
  bitcoin? What would a one percent
• 49:47
  allocation do? Let's run through the
• 49:50
  mind-blowing Bitcoin math? And the reason I saved this to
• 49:52
  last is I I would, I loved having this conversation with
• 49:56
  you, because I think you explained a lot of the concepts
• 49:59
  that you used in this thread. So, I mean, I'll ask you, like
• 50:02
  point-blank, like, are we, you know, and I think a lot of
• 50:05
  people perceive that with Bitcoin being currently sitting
• 50:09
  at 20 1989 dollars. Do you believe that?
• 50:13
  You know, the again like peoples?
• 50:16
  Like I'm too late to bitcoin. I missed hundred dollar Bitcoin.
• 50:18
  What would you respond to them be?
• 50:21
  Yeah. So my dad.
• 50:23
  Thread titles a little click Beatty, I guess and that's
• 50:26
  partly the design. But really, if you read it, it
• 50:29
  it really I'm trying to do two things here.
• 50:31
  The first thing is to calm bitcoiners nerves because
• 50:34
  frankly, a lot of people in Bitcoin are extremely paranoid
• 50:37
  and they think they don't have enough and they think they're
• 50:38
  too late or they think whatever. At my first point with that
• 50:41
  threat is like calm down. Like, I don't like not even I
• 50:45
  don't think any of us realize, like how early it is and I mean,
• 50:51
  that, in terms of getting rich, like, oh, you're so early.
• 50:53
  Going to be. But no, I mean, like, as early
• 50:55
  as like, okay, you're safe, you're okay.
• 50:57
  Just from a means of self-preservation, not a means
• 51:00
  of excess luxury, but the second point is also the reverse for
• 51:04
  people that aren't exposed to that to kind of like Peak that
• 51:06
  little curiosity, and a little, a little gentle, loving little
• 51:10
  bit of fear and existential dread because the way I would
• 51:15
  describe Bitcoins. It's basically an insurance
• 51:17
  policy, you know, if we think Basically Bitcoins like a
• 51:23
  premium free form of insurance on everything else as far as
• 51:29
  monetary premium on everything else all monetary premium in
• 51:32
  cash real estate gold silver oil, whatever it's like Bitcoins
• 51:36
  basically. An insurance policy on that, you
• 51:38
  know? And so if we think of all those
• 51:42
  things declining, the insurance keeps going up.
• 51:45
  The value that insurance keeps going up.
• 51:47
  And so, I think the best way to put it is that basically an
• 51:52
  insurance. See, it's completely worthless
• 51:55
  until the moment is worth, like everything.
• 51:57
  I mean, that's why 2008 the great financial crisis GFC
• 52:00
  happens. So quick is because, you know,
• 52:03
  you had all these mortgages that were going bust and more and
• 52:06
  more, we're going bust, and all of a sudden, all the insurance
• 52:09
  companies and always rehypothecation packages that
• 52:12
  were ensuring. It's a veil being about, it's
• 52:14
  like all of a sudden you have toxic assets plus, nobody's able
• 52:18
  to cover, it's like that that's when you have compounding risk
• 52:21
  and everything. So, so fast and so I think I
• 52:23
  think the way to put it with Bitcoin is that it's just going
• 52:26
  to continue oscillating virtually near zero for very
• 52:31
  long time until something happens, it just re prices
• 52:35
  Twitter should be and I think people get caught up in the
• 52:38
  noise you know but it's like it's all noise, you know at
• 52:41
  thousand dollars a Bitcoin twenty thousand dollars, a
• 52:43
  Bitcoin three thousand dollars sixty thousand dollars, four
• 52:48
  hundred thousand dollars, two hundred dollars, it's like it's
• 52:51
  all noise, you know, like If if we say theoretically like
• 52:55
  there's many great pieces of work out there that say Bitcoin
• 52:57
  should be 10 million dollars. Like in today's purchasing,
• 53:00
  power Health, in e in 2009, when week after the Queen's distance
• 53:04
  predicted Bitcoin could be 10 million dollars which today just
• 53:07
  for inflation. That's like 25 million dollars.
• 53:09
  Greg Faust, thanks to million is ridiculously cheap.
• 53:13
  I think, you know, probably five, Millions cheap, Michael
• 53:15
  Sailors, total. Finally, I mean, you know if we
• 53:17
  just Pick a number and clean, easy number of 10 million, in
• 53:22
  today's current purchasing power.
• 53:23
  And we've you like an insurance policy.
• 53:25
  The way the way you can put it is that basically the political
• 53:30
  currency system and diversified portfolio of assets, consumers
• 53:35
  consumer goods, they have an exponentially increasing Supply.
• 53:38
  If we view that as like a house that slowly burning down and
• 53:42
  less and less than we bring down because it's burning down an
• 53:44
  exponential rate, like how a house is burning down.
• 53:47
  And we call Bitcoin that insurance policy on that well
• 53:49
  right now, the insurance policy is trading.
• 53:52
  Let's see if we just say 25,000 dollars.
• 53:55
  That's zero point zero zero two cents on the dollar, something
• 53:58
  like that. So I mean you know Bitcoin could
• 54:01
  go up by a factor five a factor of 10 and still be like a cent
• 54:05
  on the dollar or two cents on the dollar.
• 54:08
  I mean you know it's so anyway the point with that thread and
• 54:10
  my general point in emphasizing both of those dynamics of how
• 54:15
  much Bitcoin is a to get rich and how much to take To protect
• 54:17
  yourself. The point either way is that
• 54:19
  Bitcoin will probably continue to Trend up with time, and then
• 54:23
  they'll probably just be a moment or a day or a brief
• 54:25
  period where the free market or a series of free markets.
• 54:31
  Begin to realize that this is a risk off asset.
• 54:33
  And now, there is gone asset and that's what I'm concerned about.
• 54:36
  I think that's well Louise away, but I don't think I think
• 54:42
  Pension funds and Nations and large corporations will realize
• 54:45
  that before. People do before, I was people
• 54:49
  granted for people realizing it now, but I think the mass of
• 54:52
  people will not realize it until that insurance policy is
• 54:55
  already. Gapping up to where it should
• 54:58
  be. So anyway, I kind of went off.
• 55:00
  The rails are no, you totally did it, man.
• 55:03
  People are loving in the chart, you're blowing, everyone's mind.
• 55:06
  So, yeah, it didn't. Then why is it like, why is it?
• 55:10
  And I know you answered this right?
• 55:12
  Which is people Thinkin, they think linearly, right?
• 55:15
  But like why is it that you? Oh, some bitcoiners believe that
• 55:19
  they don't have enough Bitcoin and I'll follow that question up
• 55:22
  with with. If you wanted an upper
• 55:27
  middle-class lifestyle how much Bitcoin would you need to
• 55:31
  achieve that and of course and this is total speculation over
• 55:35
  spitballing here. This is not Financial advice.
• 55:37
  You got no nose yeah. Go buy a bunch of Treasury Bonds
• 55:41
  on it - real yield. Yeah, do that.
• 55:46
  Yeah. The second question, let's look
• 55:48
  at the chart I pulled up. So I don't if you want to pull
• 55:51
  it up when I'm answering the first question.
• 55:52
  Yes. For the first question.
• 55:54
  Why do people feel that they're always too late?
• 55:55
  It's like again, it all comes down to perspective, you know?
• 55:59
  Right now if you're like me and you're relatively new to
• 56:01
  bitcoin. Yeah, you're the last of the
• 56:04
  party because you're looking back people.
• 56:06
  Five years ahead of you, 10 years, to have you.
• 56:08
  There are also much earlier than you, but again, look the other
• 56:12
  direction. Look forward to the future.
• 56:13
  You know, roughly 1 in 3,000 humans and Earth actually.
• 56:16
  As a Bitcoin address and wallet, their own Bitcoin in their own
• 56:20
  Keys, our own store just like, okay, yeah, sure.
• 56:23
  You sad that you weren't here in 2014 or 2011 or 2017 or 2019.
• 56:28
  However, recent refer back, you want to go?
• 56:29
  But it's like, okay, you're still the first out of 2,500 to
• 56:33
  the, you know, 3,000 people. It's like, okay, you know, let's
• 56:36
  say there's five million hardcore bitcoiners today, which
• 56:39
  I think is probably true. It's like okay there's another
• 56:41
  4.99 4.5 billion. Plus plus the growing
• 56:48
  population, plus the fact that Global Prosperity should
• 56:51
  increase over time. It's like, you know, people
• 56:54
  think you're too late because it looking backwards and it's like,
• 56:56
  just people need to calm down and step back and have
• 56:59
  conviction in the long time frame and realize, oh wait, I'm
• 57:02
  like, well, within the first percent of doctors and like,
• 57:06
  well within perhaps even the first, like 5% of the first
• 57:09
  percent of adopters, but for the people that aren't within
• 57:13
  Bitcoin, you know, they hear me say that Antonio so it's early
• 57:16
  I've time I've Time, right. It's like Maybe, we don't know,
• 57:22
  you know, again by the time they created by percent Global
• 57:24
  adoption, we don't know how dire the situation will be for the
• 57:31
  fee. Our fractional Reserve System
• 57:34
  like we don't know what I mean, what does five percent of the
• 57:38
  users of a fractional? Reserve Bank selling older
• 57:42
  political currency, that's away from their bank and into
• 57:44
  Bitcoin? Like what does that do?
• 57:45
  I don't know, but it's not good. I can tell you that, so So
• 57:49
  anyway that those are the better for us like to use but yeah I
• 57:54
  think I think ultimately what it comes down to is that people
• 57:56
  outside Bitcoin are looking at its price and they think, oh my
• 57:59
  goodness, it's never been higher.
• 58:01
  And it's like, okay, but you could go back to literally any
• 58:04
  point in Bitcoins history. And that's true.
• 58:06
  You know what? One of my favorite models is
• 58:07
  that a wicked, smarts, Wicked, smart, hit that that Twitter
• 58:12
  guy, Wicked smart. We get smart Bitcoin, his model
• 58:15
  of Bitcoins hyperbolic adoption trajectory and then overlaying
• 58:18
  price over. That is one of my favorite
• 58:20
  examples and I put that in my throat, I believe.
• 58:21
  But it just because it's basically the same thing.
• 58:23
  It's like Bitcoin was one dollar and people thought it's a bubble
• 58:27
  to scam is going as your it crossed 100 dollars in 2011 and
• 58:31
  people thought it was over. It's you know I'm too late
• 58:32
  whatever. And you know people thought the
• 58:34
  same thing at thousand dollars. If the same day ten thousand
• 58:37
  dollars they're thinking the same thing about twenty two
• 58:38
  seventy thousand dollars probably in two to three years
• 58:42
  Bitcoin will be at a hundred thousand, two hundred thousand a
• 58:44
  hundred fifty thousand dollars and people be saying the same
• 58:47
  thing. All it's about what was too
• 58:48
  late. But buying it 15,000.
• 58:49
  Why wasn't I buying World Bitcoin?
• 58:51
  Just told me about 15,000 and then we'll crash.
• 58:53
  And then look at themselves the back, like, oh, so glad I
• 58:55
  applied it and it'll go up again, I'll be five hundred
• 58:57
  thousand, eight hundred thousand billion dollars and they'll be
• 58:59
  saying the same thing Cohen too late.
• 59:00
  And it's, it all comes down to perspective.
• 59:03
  It's because it's like, yeah. If you're entering in, in the
• 59:05
  year 2029 and you look back. Yeah, you're the last one, but
• 59:08
  look forward ahead. You're still within the first
• 59:10
  five percent of adopters or whatever it is you know.
• 59:13
  And so I think it's just going to continue.
• 59:16
  I think Bitcoin will be trading at like 15 million.
• 59:18
  U.s. dollars and a significant portion if not, the majority of
• 59:23
  people will still be some tight saying to themselves.
• 59:26
  Oh it's a bubble. I don't understand you know it
• 59:28
  all people are just scared because the dollars like it's a
• 59:30
  threat to the dollar and you know it's like I mean people
• 59:33
  might think that's crazy but I think it that level of cognitive
• 59:39
  dissonance accuracy and dissidents is just going to
• 59:42
  continue Forever Until that line of thought will completely
• 59:47
  utterly been shattered. I Don't Lie by the free market.
• 59:50
  Yeah, it is. You definitely don't want to be
• 59:51
  the last, the last, in that line of people thinking that either.
• 59:55
  Okay, yeah, so Luke. So, the second part of the
• 59:58
  question was, how much Bitcoin do you believe will be necessary
• 1:00:03
  to achieve upper middle class in the future in today's terms?
• 1:00:06
  I mean, any amount, mmm, the value or The cost of process of
• 1:00:14
  what we call. Oh yeah, here's that chart.
• 1:00:16
  Yeah, let's watch this first real quick.
• 1:00:18
  So yeah, that white line. You zoom in a bit?
• 1:00:21
  Yeah, that'd be great. This is not my chart.
• 1:00:23
  This is cited on there somewhere?
• 1:00:24
  Yeah, we're smart. Yeah.
• 1:00:26
  So the Orange Line obviously is Bitcoins price on the left hand
• 1:00:28
  side. We have linear terms.
• 1:00:29
  On the right hand side, we've logarithmic terms human brains
• 1:00:32
  like to think in linear terms technology like to operate in
• 1:00:35
  logarithmic terms. So, we look at that orange line,
• 1:00:38
  and it keeps going up and crashing up and crashing up, and
• 1:00:39
  crashing forever. And because we View You the
• 1:00:43
  political currency unit of choice is our constant.
• 1:00:45
  We think it's a bubble. That's just expanding forever.
• 1:00:47
  Like, oh my goodness, it. But it must therefore collapse.
• 1:00:50
  It must therefore die and we don't want to ourselves.
• 1:00:53
  Well, if it's actually the dollar that's declining in
• 1:00:55
  relative value at an exponential rate forever because we can just
• 1:00:58
  continue printing exponential rate of currency as forever.
• 1:01:01
  And so that that's the basic idea here.
• 1:01:03
  I think genuinely Bitcoin will continue to Skyrocket and
• 1:01:06
  appreciate and then crash in sideline continually forever.
• 1:01:11
  And I think the No one realizes that and sooner one realizes
• 1:01:14
  that nothing fundamentally is going to change a Bitcoin.
• 1:01:17
  And any point in the future, theoretically it's like okay.
• 1:01:21
  So you're telling me, you know it's it's almost Indescribable
• 1:01:26
  how different it is to everything else because unlike
• 1:01:29
  every other currency system today to larger, they get the
• 1:01:32
  higher risk, they become because the incentive to corrupt, The
• 1:01:35
  Ledger becomes greater. But with Bitcoin is the precise
• 1:01:37
  opposite, the bigger Bitcoin, grows the lower risk, it gets
• 1:01:40
  and the upside increases. You know, it's like when Bitcoin
• 1:01:43
  was five days old. It's upside was much less than
• 1:01:46
  it is today, or I did an interview with great boss
• 1:01:48
  recently and like he said, he said Bitcoin today.
• 1:01:51
  At twenty thousand dollars is has a higher up side and lower
• 1:01:55
  risk than it did at $1000. It's the same idea because
• 1:01:59
  information as fast ascribe the information has changed so much
• 1:02:03
  that it's become a better asymmetric bet and I would say
• 1:02:07
  better asymmetric bet on the future of humanity and I think
• 1:02:10
  that will continue You know, perpetually forever as the what
• 1:02:14
  system declines in either increase, I think that's true
• 1:02:16
  for every so. So anyway, that's, that's my
• 1:02:19
  basic point, with that, and perhaps idea is wrong.
• 1:02:22
  I don't know how it's wrong, obviously.
• 1:02:23
  Otherwise I wouldn't believe it to be the case, but I yet to
• 1:02:27
  find somebody that can convincingly give me a counter
• 1:02:30
  argument and that that's the reason why I think I'm more I'm
• 1:02:33
  so knowledgeable about Bitcoins because I really tried to prove
• 1:02:37
  to myself that this thing was stupid.
• 1:02:40
  And I could it's like every argument I threw at it I just
• 1:02:44
  had to cringe be like oh that's not right.
• 1:02:46
  It doesn't make sense. You don't like oh so insert
• 1:02:48
  mmmm. No like it w.
• 1:02:50
  Okay. Well then it's not backed by
• 1:02:52
  anything, you know? Anyway, I think most people have
• 1:02:55
  to go through that route and they're either going to go
• 1:02:57
  through it by giving it a lot of mental work and eventually
• 1:03:00
  realizing at the end or they're going to have to experience
• 1:03:04
  their portfolio of everything else just decline in Bitcoin
• 1:03:07
  relative terms forever. So yeah.
• 1:03:09
  And it's funny, you say that because when when I started my
• 1:03:13
  Bitcoin Journey was the same thing, it was like I was looking
• 1:03:16
  forward to arguing with someone that would prove Me wrong on
• 1:03:24
  bitcoin and I spoke to a lot of people right.
• 1:03:27
  You know, speak people that worked at huge investment Banks
• 1:03:29
  and whatever. And the only talking points they
• 1:03:32
  had back, was talking points to hear it on the media, right?
• 1:03:35
  None of it came from our G. Yeah, yeah.
• 1:03:37
  Energy censorship, not backed by anything.
• 1:03:40
  No intrinsic value. It's like, it's going to ban it.
• 1:03:42
  Yeah, it's like you say no to me and that's why I said that once
• 1:03:49
  we looked at earlier that you know, you're on a team, if you
• 1:03:52
  don't understand. But you're an idiot, if you're
• 1:03:55
  not at least paying attention to it because it's like everyone is
• 1:03:58
  saying the same half-dozen argument or so like everyone
• 1:04:01
  every news station, it doesn't matter if they're broke college
• 1:04:04
  student or managing a hundred million dollars.
• 1:04:05
  Everyone has the same five or six cognitive biases against
• 1:04:09
  this thing and we just keep repeating them to ourselves.
• 1:04:11
  We put our TVs, we put her in articles.
• 1:04:13
  We have our PhD economists, you know.
• 1:04:16
  Just keep re touting these things and nobody questions.
• 1:04:19
  What if those aren't true? And I think I could be a really
• 1:04:22
  harsh Awakening. You know so anyway my point
• 1:04:27
  there but anyway I know we're getting short on time here but
• 1:04:30
  you had the other question about how much?
• 1:04:33
  Yeah I mean yeah yeah yeah so why don't we why don't we end up
• 1:04:40
  with that with that last question right here.
• 1:04:42
  So the question for anyone to anyone who's listening is how
• 1:04:46
  much Bitcoin do you need to to live an upper middle-class
• 1:04:52
  lifestyle? How much When do you need to
• 1:04:54
  save in order to achieve that? So Opti, do we have a chart?
• 1:04:58
  Yeah. Wasn't that thread tie wrap?
• 1:05:02
  Yeah. Like I was saying earlier, I
• 1:05:03
  think any amount because the cost of what we today call an
• 1:05:07
  upper middle-class lifestyle should only go down in time.
• 1:05:10
  You know if we think about a hundred years from today amount
• 1:05:12
  of luxury and Comforts, I have personally will be much cheaper
• 1:05:16
  to to my grandkids 100 years mail.
• 1:05:20
  That is for me today in the same way today that I'm living a Life
• 1:05:23
  much more luxurious than Rockefeller did.
• 1:05:26
  Even though I much lower in total Global Society device.
• 1:05:29
  Obviously, it's the same idea. So I think any amount is the
• 1:05:33
  correct answer, but most people don't have a time preference
• 1:05:36
  that long. So yeah, I don't think scrolling
• 1:05:41
  up perhaps on this thread. It's like a spreadsheet to
• 1:05:44
  chart. Yep, up.
• 1:05:48
  Yep, that one. Yeah so yeah again all I did
• 1:05:51
  here at a lot of people didn't like it because I thought this
• 1:05:53
  was too bullish or whatever. But all I did here was I said,
• 1:05:56
  okay if we assume they're 16 million, the coin left to be
• 1:05:59
  exchanged, which I think that's really conservative, I think
• 1:06:02
  it's much less than 16 million, but let's say 16 million but
• 1:06:04
  that's generally agreement of. The upper end of the spectrum of
• 1:06:08
  predictions, like, okay, if we think there's roughly 16
• 1:06:11
  million, and we take a current Pareto distribution of all
• 1:06:14
  Global wealth, and prosperity, ranging from people that have
• 1:06:16
  one, you Dollar worth of assets to the name to people that are
• 1:06:21
  100 billionaires. And, you know, corporations the
• 1:06:24
  nation's trillionaires multi-trillion ears or whatever,
• 1:06:26
  you know, if you create that Spectrum, this is more or less.
• 1:06:28
  What you get, if we send theirs, 10 mega Rich entities, they each
• 1:06:31
  have roughly 140,000 Bitcoin, which there's already multiple
• 1:06:36
  digital us government's one of them, Michael Sailors.
• 1:06:38
  One of them. There's a few others that are
• 1:06:40
  probably up there. We all probably know who they
• 1:06:42
  are, but you know, if just to conserve 10 number of entities,
• 1:06:45
  get their hands on that money Bitcoin and Then let's say, 200
• 1:06:48
  of a nation states, are Mega corporations around the world,
• 1:06:50
  use roughly 200 nations in the world and many many other large
• 1:06:56
  corporations in the world, you know, five thousand billion
• 1:06:58
  years or so 65,000, other corporations 80 million
• 1:07:02
  Millionaires, and middle-sized companies.
• 1:07:05
  And then all the hundreds of millions and billions of other
• 1:07:08
  people of different classes, I don't really like that word but
• 1:07:12
  you know, for lack of a better term, you know, I mean you
• 1:07:14
  pretty much do the math and you assume it's going to be
• 1:07:16
  distributed Tween them, roughly a similar distribution of
• 1:07:20
  today's wealth. I mean that the numbers get
• 1:07:22
  pretty absurd, pretty quickly. You know, people think, again,
• 1:07:26
  it all comes back down to your perspective and your numerical
• 1:07:31
  bias and your psychological bias.
• 1:07:33
  Most people think they're too late because one Bitcoin cost,
• 1:07:36
  20 thousand dollars and it's like, do the math like, in the
• 1:07:39
  spreadsheet, has been done here and it's like, you realize, if
• 1:07:42
  this thing survives, it's like, of course, you're not going to
• 1:07:45
  own a whole Bitcoin. Lee, nobody is going to own a
• 1:07:48
  whole Bitcoin. It's like it's like the odds of
• 1:07:52
  you owning a whole Bitcoins like just say statistically speaking,
• 1:07:55
  you are random person in the future in a theoretically, hyper
• 1:07:58
  Bitcoin I used world. It's like the odds of you owning
• 1:08:00
  a whole Bitcoin or tenth of a Bitcoin or the 1% of a Bitcoin
• 1:08:04
  are crazy low. And so you know it's because
• 1:08:07
  people are thinking the terms of Bitcoins are not thinking terms
• 1:08:09
  of SATs, you know, it's like you could exchange like what for for
• 1:08:13
  4500 SATs for $1. I mean that to me seems really A
• 1:08:17
  cheap because I think once that should be worth more than $1.
• 1:08:20
  But anyway, yeah, what amount of Bitcoin should a person have?
• 1:08:24
  I mean I think that depends on their time Horizon.
• 1:08:27
  I think it depends on what their net worth is currently think.
• 1:08:30
  It depends on what their risk tolerance is I would say
• 1:08:32
  personally I think the coins lower risk than the majority of
• 1:08:35
  other financial instruments in fact that they all of the
• 1:08:37
  financial instruments but that's my perspective.
• 1:08:40
  But yeah I mean I think most people Again it's all
• 1:08:44
  perspective right now someone that has you know I don't I
• 1:08:49
  don't want to say too much here but you know I get messages from
• 1:08:51
  people in other parts of the world non-western parts of the
• 1:08:54
  world you know developing world and they have one percent of a
• 1:08:59
  Bitcoin or they have you know, a few hundred dollars worth and
• 1:09:01
  they they ask. What do I do?
• 1:09:04
  I'm too late and I Without trying to it as politely as I
• 1:09:11
  can. I try to explain that, you know,
• 1:09:13
  it's just your psychology messing with you, you know, it's
• 1:09:17
  like if you own one percent of the Bitcoin.
• 1:09:19
  Like, that's, that's so much money, you know, again, to go
• 1:09:22
  specifically in the math people that perhaps were listening
• 1:09:24
  audibly. You know, we'll see if we go,
• 1:09:27
  you know, like millionaire or a company, you know, like the
• 1:09:30
  average company in the future, my own six percent of a Bitcoin.
• 1:09:33
  It's like that's kind of crazy, especially when you keep in mind
• 1:09:37
  that That probably the average company of the future will be
• 1:09:40
  able to channel much more energy than the average company.
• 1:09:41
  And today, you know, if we take an energy company, they have,
• 1:09:44
  you know what? They use, coal and natural gas.
• 1:09:47
  What if an energy company of the future uses fusion and fission
• 1:09:51
  and has other means of energy? We haven't even conceived of yet
• 1:09:54
  and their entire balance sheet is like 8% of the Bitcoin or 10%
• 1:09:59
  of the Bitcoin. I mean, it's like, it's
• 1:10:00
  completely, it's completely Preposterous, you know?
• 1:10:03
  So yeah, wine Bitcoins, a lot of money, one percent of the coins,
• 1:10:07
  a lot of money. A hundred thousand sets or a
• 1:10:10
  quarter of a million stats, you know, I mean, it's like it's all
• 1:10:13
  a lot. It's just a matter of how many
• 1:10:14
  years in the future. Do you want to go?
• 1:10:16
  Yeah, 100% Luke man. Thank you so much for joining us
• 1:10:22
  on simply Bitcoin. IRL.
• 1:10:23
  That was quite a rabbit hole. So many people in the chat
• 1:10:27
  saying, you know, you're making them incredibly bullish.
• 1:10:30
  And I, you know what, I what I would take from today's
• 1:10:33
  conversation is and, and that really resonated with me is the
• 1:10:37
  fact That human beings think in a linear fashion.
• 1:10:41
  And people do not grasp or maybe you could even say that, just a
• 1:10:46
  human, brain wasn't designed to grasp exponential growth and I
• 1:10:50
  think I do agree with you. We're on the verge of that if
• 1:10:53
  technology is and I think that is to me the biggest proof,
• 1:10:58
  right? Look at look at the exponential
• 1:11:01
  development of Technology, the internet cell phones.
• 1:11:05
  I told you 20 years ago. No, I said this during the show.
• 1:11:07
  Right? So Luke, thank you so much for
• 1:11:10
  joining us today. Why don't you tell everybody
• 1:11:12
  where they could find you online and what projects are working on
• 1:11:14
  these days? Thanks.
• 1:11:16
  Yeah. If I could have one more thought
• 1:11:17
  to what you just said, absolutely, I think a parting
• 1:11:19
  thought would be that they coins combat.
• 1:11:21
  Internal growth rate for adoption is 80% faster than the
• 1:11:24
  internet. We all know how fast the
• 1:11:27
  internet's option was. So when we keep in mind that the
• 1:11:29
  internet is only at 60 percent adoption that Bitcoin is going
• 1:11:33
  80% faster on an annualized growth rate.
• 1:11:36
  And whatever is next, after Bitcoin is just going to be
• 1:11:40
  faster. I think that's pretty convincing
• 1:11:44
  as to why everyone should not have a zero percent allocation
• 1:11:48
  to bitcoin. Amen, Amen to that.
• 1:11:51
  Yeah. Now, what?
• 1:11:52
  Now, where am I online? I'm on Twitter.
• 1:11:53
  That's where I am most. Most of my online time right
• 1:11:56
  now. At Luke underscore Broyles.
• 1:11:58
  Like you see in the screen there.
• 1:12:00
  So yeah, that's why I'm on there.
• 1:12:02
  I just got an austere kind of exploring with that.
• 1:12:04
  I do have YouTube channel. People can find me on YouTube.
• 1:12:08
  I'm not really promoted that at all, so it's gotten.
• 1:12:11
  Bit of use, hurry. So that's kind of cool, but I
• 1:12:13
  really go into the full presentation, narrating, some
• 1:12:16
  slides. I don't have on Twitter at all
• 1:12:18
  yet. So, so yeah.
• 1:12:20
  YouTube and Twitter are the main places.
• 1:12:22
  I hope to be doing some other cool stuff in the future.
• 1:12:24
  I'm going to bitcoin conference in Miami.
• 1:12:26
  I'm going to mass adoption in Boston coming up here in April.
• 1:12:31
  I believe mid-april and yeah a few other projects I have on the
• 1:12:38
  back burner that I hope I can finish later this year or early
• 1:12:40
  next year or so. So yeah, awesome.
• 1:12:42
  Well dude, thank you so much for joining us today man.
• 1:12:46
  Really, really appreciate it. This has been quite a blast.
• 1:12:49
  Thanks Luke. Appreciate it guys.
• 1:12:51
  Thank you so much for tuning in to another episode of Simply
• 1:12:54
  Bitcoin IR. L will be back tomorrow at 12:15
• 1:12:57
  p.m. Eastern Standard Time for simply
• 1:12:59
  Bitcoin live. Love you all see you on the next
• 1:13:03
  one. It's out.