Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 60 : Second Half Breakouts

Transcript

Ep. 60 : Second Half Breakouts · Cards & Categories

0:15
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode sixty of Cards and Categories.
0:19
Speaker 1: I am Mike Coolard from Rasball, joined as always by
0:22
Speaker 1: my very good friend Jeremy Burr, also from Rasball.
0:25
Speaker 2: How you doing tonight, buddy, I'm doing just dandy. I'm
0:28
Speaker 2: like the Mets trying to make the wild card. I
0:30
Speaker 2: have hope, but my business guided.
0:33
Speaker 1: Wow, really threw them underneath the bus for being in
0:36
Speaker 1: a wild card lead and like looking pretty good. That's
0:40
Speaker 1: that's pretty harsh.
0:41
Speaker 2: I mean, it's the Mets, like it. I mean, to
0:45
Speaker 2: be at that level, you gotta have a team that's
0:47
Speaker 2: just good enough but also fun. You gotta make fun
0:50
Speaker 2: of them. Like I couldn't say the White Sox because
0:52
Speaker 2: like they're not even in the conversations. So I mean,
0:55
Speaker 2: I guess I could have said like Detroit that that
0:57
Speaker 2: might be more appropriate.
0:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I the Detroit Tigers have been playing
1:03
Speaker 1: really well and have a great last week of the
1:05
Speaker 1: season set up against Tampa and the White Sox that
1:08
Speaker 1: I think they might sneak past the Twins. Here is,
1:11
Speaker 1: the Twins have just been really really rough. As I
1:14
Speaker 1: should also stay we're speaking on Wednesday, September eighteenth, so
1:19
Speaker 1: that you can kind of get a framing of when
1:21
Speaker 1: this discussion happened, to see how well or poorly these
1:25
Speaker 1: takes have aged. But yeah, I mean, I think we
1:28
Speaker 1: haven't touched base on the I feel terrible using that
1:32
Speaker 1: phrase on a podcast, but I've got to break out
1:35
Speaker 1: of my work mode here. But we haven't discussed the
1:40
Speaker 1: overall like MLB actual kind of like playoff structure and
1:44
Speaker 1: standings in a while. We've been lost of the minutia
1:46
Speaker 1: of transactions and injuries and what screw up Bowman's going
1:51
Speaker 1: to be having in this year's set. That it's been
1:55
Speaker 1: a slowly matriculating but I would say that the the
2:00
Speaker 1: overall playoff race is forming into I think it could
2:03
Speaker 1: be a pretty good one down the stretch here that
2:05
Speaker 1: it does look like I said that ale wild card
2:08
Speaker 1: is going to come down to the last few games
2:10
Speaker 1: between Minnesota, Seattle and Detroit, and in the NL, that
2:15
Speaker 1: last wildcard spot's really gonna come down to the coin
2:18
Speaker 1: foot between the Braves and the Mets. As the Cubs
2:21
Speaker 1: are still hanging in at six and a half out,
2:23
Speaker 1: but six and a half out with like eight games
2:25
Speaker 1: left while losing a series to the Oakland A's not
2:29
Speaker 1: looking so hot for them. So which of these races
2:32
Speaker 1: I think are you more interested in between the A
2:36
Speaker 1: NL wild Card or is there even maybe another race
2:39
Speaker 1: for like number one seed or the NL West that
2:42
Speaker 1: I haven't covered that is really fascinating you right now?
2:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, sorry, no tall above, No, the lens.
2:50
Speaker 2: Actually slightly interesting to me is what we call the
2:55
Speaker 2: intra league wild card battle here, which is is Kansas
3:01
Speaker 2: City and Atlanta. They finished the season against each other,
3:04
Speaker 2: and Kansas City's scuffling a little bit right now, and
3:07
Speaker 2: so they're kind of bringing themselves down, and you've got
3:11
Speaker 2: Detroit and Minnesota there. We actually have relatively decent schedules
3:17
Speaker 2: the rest of the season. And you already heard my
3:20
Speaker 2: my feelings on the Mets. I'm not too locked in there.
3:23
Speaker 2: I feel like that series is gonna be pivotal for
3:26
Speaker 2: both wild card races, and you might be in a
3:29
Speaker 2: situation here where like the winner of that series literally
3:33
Speaker 2: determines both wildcard races, And so I think it's gonna
3:36
Speaker 2: be a lot of fun here down the stretch. And
3:38
Speaker 2: so I'm I'm I'm just gearing up for like that
3:40
Speaker 2: last weekend, you know, the game one sixty three type
3:43
Speaker 2: of conversations, which you know can't quite happen the way
3:46
Speaker 2: it used to. But like I'm I'm excited about seeing that,
3:51
Speaker 2: like last week in a baseball where everybody's playing at
3:53
Speaker 2: the same time, you know, all the races coming down
3:56
Speaker 2: to that what potentially is that last day. So I
3:59
Speaker 2: don't know, that's that's kind of the weird kink that
4:01
Speaker 2: I'm looking at.
4:02
Speaker 1: What excites you, well, I mean, I do think that
4:06
Speaker 1: the Mets are going to be interesting, just because the
4:08
Speaker 1: pageantry of the Mets is going to be on full
4:10
Speaker 1: display here for the next week and a half in
4:12
Speaker 1: terms of the heartbreak or the triumph of what they
4:17
Speaker 1: do with this wild card spot. And then I mean,
4:19
Speaker 1: obviously they'll fall apart in the playoffs because they're the
4:21
Speaker 1: New York Mets. But as I'm just.
4:23
Speaker 2: I'm not letting them get there am my dreams here.
4:26
Speaker 2: It's just like you're gonna fall apart before you to happen,
4:28
Speaker 2: so why bother.
4:30
Speaker 1: I mean, that rotation is just not in a good
4:33
Speaker 1: shape for them to make a playoff run. I mean,
4:35
Speaker 1: I guess I could have said just about the same
4:37
Speaker 1: with the Diamondbacks last year. But it will be good
4:41
Speaker 1: for the Mets, if anything, to also showcase how close
4:45
Speaker 1: they are to really competing for that division going into
4:48
Speaker 1: twenty five, that they just need to add the pitching.
4:51
Speaker 1: And yeah, it will alstily give me a chance to
4:54
Speaker 1: really enjoy watching the S and Y broadcasts. It's one
4:58
Speaker 1: of my favorite crews watching MOABTV. But you know me,
5:02
Speaker 1: I'm a sicko. The actual series I'm the most excited about.
5:05
Speaker 1: I already mentioned it, it's that Tigers White Sox series
5:09
Speaker 1: to end the season, because one like, it's gonna be
5:13
Speaker 1: very pittaful for this wild card race because currently Minnesota
5:18
Speaker 1: is a game and a half up on Detroit, but
5:20
Speaker 1: you might as well say that Minnesota is a game
5:23
Speaker 1: and a half back because the Tigers are almost kind
5:26
Speaker 1: of banking those three wins on top of it all.
5:29
Speaker 1: I mean, that's gonna be the last final stretch to
5:32
Speaker 1: see how low this win total can go for the
5:35
Speaker 1: White Sox in terms of like historical standing. So it's
5:39
Speaker 1: going to be, I think, just a crazy environment. And
5:42
Speaker 1: then you add in the Jason Bennetti announcing the Tigers
5:45
Speaker 1: games on top of it that, you know it's gonna
5:48
Speaker 1: be just a fascinating circus. I think in that last
5:51
Speaker 1: three game series between the Tigers and the White Sox
5:54
Speaker 1: and just kind of seeing the interaction between all of
5:57
Speaker 1: the hopes and dreams of both those teams meeting at
6:00
Speaker 1: the same spot.
6:01
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, yeah, you're at this. There's just so
6:04
Speaker 2: many mini storylines and I think, you know, when they
6:07
Speaker 2: first kind of expanded the playoffs, it's like, you know,
6:09
Speaker 2: I'm kind of a traditionalist in baseball. I kind of
6:12
Speaker 2: like the way things are, and but it really has
6:14
Speaker 2: created so many of these interesting storylines dynamics down the
6:17
Speaker 2: stretch of like what could be possible because you're looking
6:20
Speaker 2: at you know, I think it's Minnesota. There are they
6:25
Speaker 2: the ones playing against Baltimore to kind of finish the
6:29
Speaker 2: season there and so yeah, they finished out against Baltimore,
6:34
Speaker 2: who has the Yankees for three games right before that,
6:38
Speaker 2: so they're gonna have a chance to go after the
6:40
Speaker 2: Yankees and then go for the go for the division.
6:43
Speaker 2: And so another team that's gonna be going into the
6:45
Speaker 2: last series of the season trying to prove something for
6:48
Speaker 2: a team fighting for the wild card. Like you have
6:50
Speaker 2: all of these teams playing against each other across all
6:54
Speaker 2: the leagues, just causing chaos, and then the White Sox
6:58
Speaker 2: just happen to like insert themselves for fun. That's just
7:02
Speaker 2: that's so uh, Chicago White Sox for you. So I
7:05
Speaker 2: think it's gonna be a blast the next week and
7:07
Speaker 2: a half here of of games, and there's just yeah,
7:11
Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to next week when we chat because
7:14
Speaker 2: it'll all be crystallizing right then and we'll just get
7:16
Speaker 2: to say, yeah, here's my prediction, here's what's gonna happen.
7:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, to really round out the season. And then I mean,
7:22
Speaker 1: the other big piece of news that we've kind of
7:23
Speaker 1: had in the baseball sphere at large going into this
7:27
Speaker 1: conversation tonight is whether or not Otani's gonna be pitching
7:30
Speaker 1: in the postseason. It's been floated in the media by
7:33
Speaker 1: Dave Roberts there in La that he said that it
7:36
Speaker 1: could happen, which I feel like it's on pace two
7:40
Speaker 1: happen if you're gonna float that as the manager. I've
7:43
Speaker 1: been reading Andrew McCullough's Andy McCullough's Clinton Kershaw and the
7:49
Speaker 1: Burden of Greatness book, and there's a lot of just
7:52
Speaker 1: kind of like small Dave Robertism's in there in terms
7:55
Speaker 1: of like him mishandling Kershaw throughout the years when he
7:59
Speaker 1: first came to l and you can tell that he
8:02
Speaker 1: just wasn't used to handling a superstar or a media
8:05
Speaker 1: market like Los Angeles before he arrived. And I've considered that,
8:10
Speaker 1: like when he's been talking about Otani in the news
8:12
Speaker 1: the past couple of days, that I do feel that
8:15
Speaker 1: he doesn't float this thing out there unless it's actually
8:18
Speaker 1: really gonna happen, because otherwise, like why even put that
8:23
Speaker 1: into the world, you know what I mean, Like why
8:25
Speaker 1: not just make it? You don't even need to like
8:29
Speaker 1: put any statement out there. It could be neutral in
8:31
Speaker 1: terms of what Otani's gonna be doing or just being
8:34
Speaker 1: able to kind of like kick the can down the
8:37
Speaker 1: road on the question. It's been fascinating to see like
8:40
Speaker 1: how he has answered and responded to any questions around
8:45
Speaker 1: Otani pitching that I think that working into territory where
8:49
Speaker 1: the scales might be tipping, that he's going to make
8:51
Speaker 1: an appearance or two. Do you think it's possible?
8:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I all conventional wisdom says no, like
8:59
Speaker 2: it shouldn't be. It's a bad idea, like not not
9:03
Speaker 2: just from like it's it's not been long enough, like
9:06
Speaker 2: that surgery traditionally needs, you know, twelve to eighteen months.
9:09
Speaker 2: We're like at twelve, right, we're right there, and then
9:13
Speaker 2: when people come back from that, it does seem to
9:15
Speaker 2: take two to three months to like kind of round
9:19
Speaker 2: back into form, get your control back, all those kind
9:21
Speaker 2: of things. It just seems to be kind of the
9:25
Speaker 2: measure for players, and so why would you want to
9:28
Speaker 2: bring something back for high octane like biggest moment type
9:33
Speaker 2: of things. But it's show hey with Tani, Like what
9:37
Speaker 2: can't the guy do? And so that's where I, you know,
9:40
Speaker 2: the rational side of me says no, But then I
9:43
Speaker 2: look at it and go, what have we ever said?
9:45
Speaker 2: This rational bot? Show hey Atani? That's actually mattered. Like
9:48
Speaker 2: this is a guy that's came over from Japan at
9:51
Speaker 2: what you'd argue was the wrong time because he didn't
9:54
Speaker 2: get the big contract and things like that. He did
9:57
Speaker 2: everything he need to do. He's he's who's gonna get
9:59
Speaker 2: a good contract and free agency and he got you
10:01
Speaker 2: know the world's largest ever contracting free agency. You know,
10:05
Speaker 2: he what is he gonna be able to hit? Okay,
10:08
Speaker 2: if he's not pitching his value there let's just try
10:10
Speaker 2: to go fifty to fifty, Like the guy is just insane,
10:15
Speaker 2: And so I think that there's uh, I'm gonna say
10:18
Speaker 2: there's a non zero chance, as Dave Roberts would say,
10:21
Speaker 2: that Otani's pitching the playoffs, and if if you're the
10:25
Speaker 2: Dodgers brass, you're making it happen just for the media
10:28
Speaker 2: frenzy of it, like the Jersey sales or whatever comes
10:31
Speaker 2: out of it, like, oh, you're bringing Otani in in
10:34
Speaker 2: a really crazy spot, you know, up you know, three
10:36
Speaker 2: games to one in a series to try to close
10:38
Speaker 2: it out or something like that just for grins. This
10:42
Speaker 2: is why I'm not ever a manager of a team.
10:46
Speaker 1: Very video game land, Yes, but exactly so. I think
10:51
Speaker 1: it's it's also not a terrible strategy for the Dodger says,
10:55
Speaker 1: I mean, they're banged up in the rotation. Now, we've
10:57
Speaker 1: discussed it last week, and we'll have a little bit
10:59
Speaker 1: when we get in to news and notes here in
11:01
Speaker 1: terms of that rotation is thinned out to just Jack Flaherty,
11:06
Speaker 1: Walker Beeler, Yoshinovo Yamamoto, and Landon Nak Right now, that
11:11
Speaker 1: the way to make that look a lot better going
11:13
Speaker 1: into the playoffs is to turn one of the like
11:16
Speaker 1: rotation games, especially maybe the walker bueler one take him
11:19
Speaker 1: out slimit down to the three with making a bullpen
11:23
Speaker 1: game that features an Otani inning maybe two, and then yep,
11:27
Speaker 1: you know you can stretch Kopeck out to an inning
11:29
Speaker 1: or two again, and then you've got Bruce star Gratterol
11:32
Speaker 1: back there too, who should be able to do you know,
11:35
Speaker 1: an an ing or or two that you can see
11:38
Speaker 1: the path forward where it kind of works in concert
11:41
Speaker 1: with Otani semi rehabbing but also performing and rehabbing.
11:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's gonna be fun to watch like that.
11:50
Speaker 2: That's the that's the beauty that is this game that
11:52
Speaker 2: we love. So I'm hoping, I'm kind of hoping it happens.
11:55
Speaker 2: The one thing, if it happens, please to let them
11:57
Speaker 2: get hurt.
11:59
Speaker 1: Please, a huge bummer.
12:01
Speaker 2: Yeah.
12:02
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, we've got a great show coming up. So
12:05
Speaker 1: what we're going to talk about in our big segment
12:07
Speaker 1: is just second half breakouts in terms of especially when
12:10
Speaker 1: you're looking at some of those season lines for players
12:12
Speaker 1: out there and looking at total season values in those fantasies,
12:18
Speaker 1: you know, fantasy rankings and fantasy values that they obviously
12:23
Speaker 1: have the entire line in there. So there's been some
12:26
Speaker 1: players who have really broken out over the last two
12:28
Speaker 1: months and been able to show new skills, you know,
12:32
Speaker 1: be able to secure new new bouts at playing times.
12:34
Speaker 1: So we're going to dive into some of those players,
12:37
Speaker 1: but first we're going to dive into some of those
12:38
Speaker 1: news and notes with first our injuries, so we're sticking
12:43
Speaker 1: with those Mets. Francisco Lindor is ify right now with
12:47
Speaker 1: a back injury. So they did an MRI on his back,
12:51
Speaker 1: and obviously it was sore from carrying this team all
12:54
Speaker 1: summer is what I think the real issue was. But
12:58
Speaker 1: he's been out now for a couple of days. It's
13:00
Speaker 1: kind of a day to day situation where I think
13:02
Speaker 1: if it wasn't where we're at in the calendar, he
13:06
Speaker 1: would obviously have already been shelled for ten days, gotten
13:10
Speaker 1: a stretch of time off, and then come back fresh.
13:12
Speaker 1: But with the day to day nature, the New York
13:15
Speaker 1: Mets have called up Louis on hell Acunya, Ronald's little brother,
13:20
Speaker 1: to play shortstop in Francisco Lindor instead. And so yeah,
13:24
Speaker 1: the question here is what do you see for Luis
13:28
Speaker 1: Lacuna angel or Louis on hell Acunya. That's mouthful to say, sorry,
13:36
Speaker 1: in terms of his fantasy value, maybe over the last
13:39
Speaker 1: week and a half, are you moving to pick him
13:41
Speaker 1: up in leads where you might be needing steals and
13:44
Speaker 1: speed down the stretch? Yeah?
13:45
Speaker 2: I think you think you hit the nail the head
13:47
Speaker 2: right there with your questions, which is that's the only
13:49
Speaker 2: spot I'm looking right now to pick up Acunya, which
13:52
Speaker 2: is if I need speed, because I you know, he
13:56
Speaker 2: wasn't great in Triple A. I think he WRC plus
14:01
Speaker 2: was a paltry sixty nine. What worked really really well there?
14:04
Speaker 2: And I really see them like the Mets are in
14:08
Speaker 2: the playoff punt. We just talked about it, and so
14:10
Speaker 2: let's bring up a guy that's that's kind of struggling
14:12
Speaker 2: the miners, hasn't necessarily done everything we've wanted, and let's
14:17
Speaker 2: hope that it works, right. I think he's brought up
14:19
Speaker 2: for the speed, to be honest, I think that's why
14:21
Speaker 2: they're bringing him up is Yeah, he might fill the
14:23
Speaker 2: gap for a few days when Lindor is kind of healing,
14:25
Speaker 2: and then they're going to keep him up there just
14:28
Speaker 2: at a certain point a la Terrence Gore back in
14:32
Speaker 2: the day of Kansas City, when we need a guy
14:35
Speaker 2: to steal a base, we got a guy with speed
14:37
Speaker 2: or to pinch run or something like that. That's what
14:39
Speaker 2: they're gonna do with Akunya. I don't think that they're
14:42
Speaker 2: looking to like develop him all of a sudden at
14:46
Speaker 2: the eleventh hour and the majors in the playoff race.
14:49
Speaker 2: So I think it's really more of a need. They're
14:52
Speaker 2: trying to fill that gap, and as soon as that
14:54
Speaker 2: need is not so severe, then he's I don't think
14:57
Speaker 2: he's anything back down. I think he's going to making
15:00
Speaker 2: pinch running conshitting type appearances, just kind of spelling as
15:04
Speaker 2: here and there. So I'm I'm probably not too intrigued,
15:07
Speaker 2: unless to your point, like I'm in a head to
15:08
Speaker 2: head league going to the playoffs at the end of
15:12
Speaker 2: the season here and I need a little speed to
15:14
Speaker 2: give me a little pick up, pick me up. Yeah,
15:16
Speaker 2: That's where I'm going after a Cunya. But that's about it.
15:19
Speaker 2: So am I am I too far down on Acunya
15:21
Speaker 2: here just with the situation.
15:24
Speaker 1: No, I don't think so. I think that's probably appropriate
15:26
Speaker 1: that it does seem like he needs another year of
15:29
Speaker 1: seasoning down in the minors before he's ready to go,
15:32
Speaker 1: And I mean, I think that could happen pretty quickly
15:34
Speaker 1: going into twenty five. But certainly here for the rest
15:38
Speaker 1: of twenty four somebody that you if you desperately need
15:42
Speaker 1: like two or three steals, he's probably one of your
15:45
Speaker 1: better chances. And certainly there are leagues out there between
15:49
Speaker 1: head to heads and roto standings that are that tight
15:52
Speaker 1: that it could make a difference. So certainly somebody to
15:54
Speaker 1: check out. Okay, next injury we have is the kind
15:59
Speaker 1: of I've previously mentioned Dodgers. Here's the fallout that I
16:02
Speaker 1: was talking about. Tabler glassnow has been diagnosed with a
16:05
Speaker 1: sprained elbow that he it apparently suffered in terms of
16:09
Speaker 1: like his rehab coming back from just general elbow sotness
16:13
Speaker 1: and tend to ninetis originally that maybe this was lingering
16:16
Speaker 1: in there and he made it worse, but it is
16:19
Speaker 1: certainly going to shut him down for the rest of
16:22
Speaker 1: the season. And I mean, I guess the question here
16:24
Speaker 1: is how far into twenty twenty five do you think
16:28
Speaker 1: this lingers? And is he falling down draft boards coming
16:32
Speaker 1: all the way off draft boards for you or are
16:34
Speaker 1: there any things that he can do to mitigate anything
16:38
Speaker 1: from that aspect as he's been a decently solid pitcher
16:42
Speaker 1: this year, but it's been another year of injuries for him.
16:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we've talked about last night a number
16:49
Speaker 2: of times in this podcast, and it's you just have
16:51
Speaker 2: to look at him for who he is. He's the
16:53
Speaker 2: guy that you hope for one hundred innings at Max
16:56
Speaker 2: and those are going to be pretty good innings when
16:58
Speaker 2: he gives them to you, but you can't rely on
17:01
Speaker 2: it beyond that. And ultimately, there's always gonna be another
17:04
Speaker 2: guy in your league that believes he's gonna pitch two
17:06
Speaker 2: hunder names and they're gonna invest in him like a
17:09
Speaker 2: number one overall pitcher, and because of that, you're not
17:12
Speaker 2: gonna own him like and if you're going with that approach,
17:14
Speaker 2: you're fine. Like I wouldn't be touching last night with
17:17
Speaker 2: a ten foot pole in leagues next year. Too much
17:21
Speaker 2: injury risk. And it's not Again we've we've talked about
17:23
Speaker 2: this where yeah, injuries happen like as a part of
17:25
Speaker 2: the game, and you know, foolmy wants foomy twice fully
17:28
Speaker 2: three times, woolly eight times, with Tyler Glass. Now, like
17:32
Speaker 2: it's we're already there, guys, And this is coming from
17:35
Speaker 2: a guy that like will play the injury card team times.
17:39
Speaker 2: You know that. And I'm just I'm so far out
17:43
Speaker 2: in Tyler Glass now at this point because it is
17:45
Speaker 2: so shiny, so fun, and it is such a terrible idea.
17:50
Speaker 2: So I'm taking him off my draft boards. To your point,
17:53
Speaker 2: the only chance I'm bringing him in is if he
17:56
Speaker 2: is sitting there in the late rounds and I'm getting
17:57
Speaker 2: him for basically free, and I can basically cut him
18:00
Speaker 2: as soon as he gets hurt. But I highly doubt
18:04
Speaker 2: that's even the consideration that anybody will let that happen,
18:07
Speaker 2: because somebody is going to see the shiny object and
18:10
Speaker 2: they're going to go after it. So off my draft board,
18:13
Speaker 2: is he still on yours?
18:14
Speaker 1: I think he is, but like I mean, just in
18:17
Speaker 1: terms of like higher than what you had, yes, you
18:20
Speaker 1: obviously that's pretty far down the barrel. But like I mean,
18:24
Speaker 1: if I was allowed to take him as like a
18:27
Speaker 1: fifteenth overall pitcher, I would because like at that point,
18:32
Speaker 1: that is about where I think the break even point is.
18:35
Speaker 1: So right now, he's sixteen dollars in our ras Ball
18:40
Speaker 1: Player Raider, and that is the twenty second overall starting
18:43
Speaker 1: pitcher that if I could draft him somewhere like twelve
18:48
Speaker 1: to fifteen. The nice thing about glass Now is that
18:52
Speaker 1: he obviously puts up those numbers while he's in and
18:56
Speaker 1: it's amongst the best rate stats. You know, you can
18:58
Speaker 1: see that in our player. His dollars per game is
19:02
Speaker 1: thirty bucks, which would rank him just kind of eyeballing it,
19:06
Speaker 1: but that put him like top six, I think top
19:09
Speaker 1: eight or six. And so when he's in there, he's great.
19:13
Speaker 1: And if you're able to find other pitching on the
19:16
Speaker 1: wire to people sub in when he's out and that's
19:18
Speaker 1: one of your skills and you want to focus on that,
19:20
Speaker 1: then he's a usable pitcher. No way I'm ever going
19:23
Speaker 1: to be able to draft Tyler Glasnow as the fifteenth
19:26
Speaker 1: overall starting pitcher in a draft. So that's why, like
19:29
Speaker 1: I have never I can't remember the last time I've
19:32
Speaker 1: had him on a team, because like that calculus just
19:35
Speaker 1: never meets up for me that like I'm never going
19:37
Speaker 1: to be drafting him as the top like eight or
19:41
Speaker 1: ten pitcher that he is per game when lots of
19:44
Speaker 1: other people will.
19:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, and That's That's what it comes down to, is
19:47
Speaker 2: it's too easy, Like because if you he reminds me
19:51
Speaker 2: of like Noah Cinderguard back back in the day, Like
19:54
Speaker 2: you look at everything he does, it's like, yes, it
19:56
Speaker 2: checks all the boxes. He just needs a good year
19:58
Speaker 2: and then it just never happens, and then he gets
20:00
Speaker 2: traded to Anaheim and so we'll we'll see what happens. Right,
20:08
Speaker 2: But I do think it's You're right. It's gonna be
20:11
Speaker 2: too tempting to dream on him and it's just gonna
20:15
Speaker 2: go go poorly. So I'll stick away. Maybe I was
20:19
Speaker 2: a little over zealous. I'll own it, but I'm still
20:23
Speaker 2: I'm even fifteen. I'm so far out taking top fifteen
20:26
Speaker 2: pitture like I'm talking like forty. So I'm just I'm
20:31
Speaker 2: so far out in glass now at this point.
20:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, I hear you. Okay, Next injury you have is
20:36
Speaker 1: blue Jay's outfielder Dalton Varshow is out with just a
20:40
Speaker 1: shoulder injury. He's gonna undergo right rotator cuff surgery. Because
20:44
Speaker 1: the blue Jay season has been over for quite some
20:46
Speaker 1: time at this point, they do have him under contract still,
20:51
Speaker 1: he's in arbitration, so he will be coming back. That's
20:55
Speaker 1: why Toronto is moving on to get surgery with him now.
20:59
Speaker 1: And it's been a chaotics season. I'd say for varshow
21:03
Speaker 1: like he was one of the sleepers that we both
21:07
Speaker 1: liked coming into the spring just because of like the
21:10
Speaker 1: baseline of playing every day. He's got a great glove
21:13
Speaker 1: gives you stolen bases. The stolen bases weren't quite as
21:17
Speaker 1: great as they were last year, and he ended up
21:19
Speaker 1: slashing fourteen two ninety three four oh seven over one
21:23
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty six games. That sounds gross, but it
21:26
Speaker 1: was a ninety nine WRC plus he was a three
21:29
Speaker 1: point three win player by war On fangrafts, and it
21:33
Speaker 1: came with eighteen homers, ten stolen bases, the two fourteen average.
21:38
Speaker 1: It's it takes a lot to wrap your head around because,
21:40
Speaker 1: like the league average is so low that it's not
21:42
Speaker 1: killing you. I guess with this rotator cuff surgery, which
21:47
Speaker 1: way are you going with it with Varshow do you
21:49
Speaker 1: see that line that he put up and say he
21:51
Speaker 1: did some of that with a bum shoulder that he
21:53
Speaker 1: needed to get cleaned up, or going into twenty twenty
21:57
Speaker 1: five he just had shoulder surgery. It's still feeling I
22:01
Speaker 1: don't trust him.
22:03
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I feel like we've had this conversation this
22:05
Speaker 2: podcast before, every time we talk about an injury, I've
22:07
Speaker 2: had it, which is dangerous. But I've also had rotater
22:11
Speaker 2: cuff surgery playing baseball, and not probably the same level
22:15
Speaker 2: as of our show. Maybe looking at a slash line,
22:17
Speaker 2: maybe close, But I think both are true. I think
22:23
Speaker 2: both the things you just throw out there are true.
22:25
Speaker 2: Is that it did hamper him this year, and it
22:29
Speaker 2: did probably zap some of that power, and I would
22:34
Speaker 2: even argue it may have zapped some of his willingness
22:36
Speaker 2: to run, just because of the of the potential danger
22:40
Speaker 2: to make things worse if you're sliding and things like that.
22:43
Speaker 2: And I think the other side can be true, which
22:45
Speaker 2: is I think this is one of those injuries that
22:48
Speaker 2: takes a lot more to rehab than you realize. And
22:51
Speaker 2: it's not one of those that it's you struggle to
22:54
Speaker 2: come back from, like you have a lot of setbacks
22:57
Speaker 2: and things like that. It just takes a lot longer
22:59
Speaker 2: to get that shoulder back into game shape, not only
23:03
Speaker 2: from throwing, but also from hitting, from that power that
23:07
Speaker 2: you generate from that shoulder it takes a lot longer
23:10
Speaker 2: to get that back, and so I think he's gonna
23:12
Speaker 2: have a little power during next year, which is probably
23:15
Speaker 2: part of what he had this year. Like his his
23:18
Speaker 2: power was just awful this year, like somehow he hit
23:22
Speaker 2: eighteen home runs. But just look at his kind of
23:26
Speaker 2: stack cast numbers. His he was lucky with his average.
23:32
Speaker 2: His two fourteen averages X man average was one eighty nine.
23:35
Speaker 2: He was bottom eighteen percent hard hit.
23:39
Speaker 1: He was.
23:41
Speaker 2: He was the first percentile of squaring the ball up,
23:43
Speaker 2: Like that's how he was league average. I don't understand,
23:50
Speaker 2: and I think it all comes from the glove, because
23:52
Speaker 2: he played gold glove outfield, and so I think that's
23:55
Speaker 2: what the Blue Jees a looking at. It's like, IY,
23:57
Speaker 2: we can keep a guy around plays gold glove defense,
23:59
Speaker 2: and if he keeps, you know, if he can mature,
24:00
Speaker 2: play a little ticket or have a bounce back. Because
24:04
Speaker 2: he's not been that bad at the play before. There
24:06
Speaker 2: is probably his worst season he's had from just a
24:08
Speaker 2: peer like plate approach. He's just had the stats pretty decently.
24:12
Speaker 2: So all that put together, I'm not too injured with
24:16
Speaker 2: varshow next year, I think there's enough red flags here
24:20
Speaker 2: that he's a better real ballplayer than a fantasy ball player,
24:24
Speaker 2: and so I'll probably sticking away. But man, there's something
24:27
Speaker 2: about Dalton Barshow that we just love and it is
24:29
Speaker 2: hard to give up on. Even when he's lost that
24:31
Speaker 2: catcher eligibility, there's still something there's like, but what if
24:34
Speaker 2: he gets a back, so it's it's still still fun.
24:39
Speaker 2: I'll still probably drink a little that kool aid when
24:42
Speaker 2: the spring comes around.
24:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so too. And I mean a lot
24:45
Speaker 1: of the reason that we had him as a sleeper
24:47
Speaker 1: going into this season was that he was pretty much
24:50
Speaker 1: free at draft boards. You know, he was able to
24:52
Speaker 1: be drafted as a bench piece or a last outfielder,
24:56
Speaker 1: and he turned around four dollars of value in a
24:58
Speaker 1: standard twelve team league. So that's what we're talking about. Like,
25:01
Speaker 1: it's not sexy and it's not like, hey, I hit
25:04
Speaker 1: a huge home run here, but if you can get
25:06
Speaker 1: positive value out of the back end of a outfield spot,
25:10
Speaker 1: it really pays dividends throughout the season for roto baseball.
25:15
Speaker 1: That Like, that's why I'm always interested in var Show
25:18
Speaker 1: and other players like him that are kept on the
25:22
Speaker 1: field with their fielding ability because they play every day
25:25
Speaker 1: and just can kind of learn how to hit over time.
25:28
Speaker 1: And yeah, I think I'm still gonna probably be taking
25:32
Speaker 1: a few shares in the spring next year and kind
25:34
Speaker 1: of hoping that I can find the next Brinton Doyle
25:37
Speaker 1: outside of Colorado, because that's those types of players live
25:41
Speaker 1: in center field across the league.
25:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, that they certainly do.
25:46
Speaker 1: Okay. The next injury we have is another back injury.
25:48
Speaker 1: This one is for Cleveland Guardians outfielder Stephen Kwan. Who
25:53
Speaker 1: I mean, if you turned off baseball, like at the
25:57
Speaker 1: All Star Game, you probably thought that Stephen Kuan was
26:00
Speaker 1: still like in the discussion for MVP votes and really
26:03
Speaker 1: leading the Cleveland Guardians to a charge of the division
26:07
Speaker 1: title for the Ale Central. But it has been rough
26:13
Speaker 1: in the second half. So I'm just looking at first
26:15
Speaker 1: half second half splits. It's even just it's worse actually
26:20
Speaker 1: if you start looking like month by month production. And
26:22
Speaker 1: obviously this month in September has been rough for On
26:24
Speaker 1: as he spatted one sixty seven in September before he
26:28
Speaker 1: hit the IL because of this injury. But in the
26:30
Speaker 1: first half he hit three fifty two, the second half
26:34
Speaker 1: two a one, And certainly I think This was always
26:39
Speaker 1: kind of a Cinderella situation where you were waiting for
26:41
Speaker 1: that pumpkin to turn or that carriage to turn back
26:43
Speaker 1: into a pumpkin. At midnight. Almost got that reverse there,
26:47
Speaker 1: just like the Luisa on Helakunya there. But what do
26:53
Speaker 1: you make of Stephen Kwan? You're a resident local top
26:55
Speaker 1: one hundred hitter. I've never been a Kwan like guy,
26:59
Speaker 1: and I thought that maybe I had some reevaluating and
27:02
Speaker 1: reflection to do after that first half. But is that
27:05
Speaker 1: who he is or is it more the second half
27:08
Speaker 1: or is it somewhere in between.
27:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's somewhere between. Like he you know,
27:13
Speaker 2: if you look at his line between the first half
27:15
Speaker 2: of the second half, like the all this kind of
27:19
Speaker 2: stats around him, his walk rates, to strikeout raids, you know,
27:23
Speaker 2: his his running things like that, like all of them
27:25
Speaker 2: are pretty consistent. Like he struck out a little more
27:28
Speaker 2: in the second half, but he also walked a little
27:30
Speaker 2: more in the second half. Things were consistent. But the
27:33
Speaker 2: thing was a big difference was his babeb It was
27:35
Speaker 2: three sixty four in the second half in the first half,
27:37
Speaker 2: is two twelve in the second half. Guess what happened
27:40
Speaker 2: his average tank like he is. He isn't a big
27:43
Speaker 2: power hitter, He isn't like the speediest of guys like
27:46
Speaker 2: he just he's a volume player and he's a singles
27:51
Speaker 2: type hitter like maybe in singles and doubles are give
27:53
Speaker 2: him that and if that falls off, everything falls off
27:58
Speaker 2: for him. That's that's the the challenge with the guy
28:01
Speaker 2: like Kwan, and that's why it is really hard to
28:04
Speaker 2: invest in them because so much his value is connected
28:06
Speaker 2: to that average and just continue to get on base
28:09
Speaker 2: and get volume because his greatest asset is the building's
28:12
Speaker 2: score runs because he's always getting on base and he's
28:15
Speaker 2: always running, he's always taking an extra chance. So Kwan
28:20
Speaker 2: is one of the guys that keeps like showing up
28:23
Speaker 2: in the back one hundred of the top one hundred
28:26
Speaker 2: and then like, but what's happening here? And so I
28:29
Speaker 2: think if you average the whole season out, that's probably
28:31
Speaker 2: who he is. He just happened that he got hot
28:33
Speaker 2: at the beginning and cold the end. Next year might
28:36
Speaker 2: just go every other month, we'll kind of see. So
28:39
Speaker 2: I'm kind of with you here. I'm generally out on
28:41
Speaker 2: Stephen Kuan is just he's just average at most things,
28:46
Speaker 2: and that makes a really good ballplayer and not great
28:50
Speaker 2: for the fantasy game. He is, you know, your fifth
28:53
Speaker 2: outfielder type, fourth outfielder type that you should be happy with,
28:56
Speaker 2: but you don't actually ever target.
28:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. All right, let's move on to
29:03
Speaker 1: some transactions. As this first guy we're going to talk about, also,
29:08
Speaker 1: the second half went really awry for him, and that
29:11
Speaker 1: is the enigmatic Craig. Kimberl has been cut by the
29:16
Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles. It'd seen enough, had shored up that bullpen.
29:20
Speaker 1: I guess without him, I mean, it's still at a
29:22
Speaker 1: rough bullpen there in Baltimore, but certainly kim Berle pitched
29:26
Speaker 1: his way out of it. But if you had told
29:29
Speaker 1: me this in early July, I, I don't know, I
29:33
Speaker 1: guess I wouldn't have been terribly shocked at his Craig.
29:36
Speaker 1: But through July seventh, he had a two ten ERA
29:41
Speaker 1: over thirty four and third innings with a thirteen point
29:45
Speaker 1: six K nine. He was on fire, twenty three saves.
29:50
Speaker 1: It looked great and honestly, considering what he costs at
29:55
Speaker 1: the at the draft table like that, that's fantastic. Because
29:58
Speaker 1: the the overall line got real out of whack after
30:02
Speaker 1: that in the second half. Ever since the All Star break,
30:06
Speaker 1: he has put up a come on, fangrass, let me
30:09
Speaker 1: click on things correctly, a ten to fifty nine era
30:15
Speaker 1: over seventeen innings, fifteen strikeouts to or twenty strikeouts to
30:21
Speaker 1: fifteen walks, zero saves, no saves after collecting twenty three
30:27
Speaker 1: through early July. That like, I don't know what totally
30:32
Speaker 1: happened here to Craig Kimberll. Obviously the control totally just
30:36
Speaker 1: disappeared overnight, and it's been the story of his career. Honestly,
30:40
Speaker 1: this has been also such a rough ending to the
30:42
Speaker 1: season that it's really kind of altered a lot of
30:45
Speaker 1: his overall career lines. So like it's really pushed him
30:50
Speaker 1: away from where he was probably entering the season as
30:53
Speaker 1: like a borderline Hall of famer to I think is
30:57
Speaker 1: pretty obviously not now at this point, probably has done
31:01
Speaker 1: in baseball given how many teams he's been doing this
31:04
Speaker 1: tour over the past couple of years. Are you in
31:06
Speaker 1: that boat where you have totally thrown away? I know
31:09
Speaker 1: you were probably out on like Kimberle a lot during
31:12
Speaker 1: the season, but did you see this sort of disaster
31:16
Speaker 1: coming down the pike. Win, especially that first half is
31:19
Speaker 1: so fantastic.
31:20
Speaker 2: It's one of those weird things to say, like yes
31:23
Speaker 2: to this conversation because like it was so so bad
31:27
Speaker 2: it was it just fell off, you know the table here.
31:32
Speaker 2: But this is literally who Craig Grimble has been for
31:34
Speaker 2: like five years now, and it's literally like he does
31:37
Speaker 2: really well. He hangs in there, he has a little bump,
31:40
Speaker 2: he figures it out, and then at some point the
31:42
Speaker 2: wheels fell off, like last year was in the playoffs
31:44
Speaker 2: where it fell off. But like it always seems to
31:46
Speaker 2: fall off. It's just a matter of when it gets there.
31:48
Speaker 2: And I'm not sure if you've hit like the aging
31:50
Speaker 2: curve of when it falls off. And so he just
31:52
Speaker 2: gets there sooner. Maybe he needed to take the rich
31:54
Speaker 2: Hill approach and start the season later and he just
31:57
Speaker 2: be fantastic. But this this is like yeah to your point,
32:03
Speaker 2: Like it's kind of a nail in the coffin for
32:05
Speaker 2: kay Craig Kimberl this point, like he's he'll he'll be
32:08
Speaker 2: going into his thirty seven year old season next year
32:11
Speaker 2: and who like somebody's gonna take a chance on him,
32:15
Speaker 2: Like it's just gonna happen.
32:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's gonna but somewhere Yeah.
32:19
Speaker 2: And and and he's you know, he's one of those that, uh,
32:22
Speaker 2: some team like that's going to call it the White
32:24
Speaker 2: Sox are gonna sign him. Like somebody's gonna sign him.
32:27
Speaker 2: Hope he does the same thing the first half him
32:29
Speaker 2: on the deadline, and you know, like that's just the
32:32
Speaker 2: pattern here. But it you know, you can just look
32:37
Speaker 2: at the number of teams he's played for in the
32:39
Speaker 2: last you know, four or five years. It's it's like
32:41
Speaker 2: he's getting he's averaged a team a year here, and
32:44
Speaker 2: it's because he is such a roller coaster that you
32:46
Speaker 2: just can't rely on. He's like your last resort for
32:49
Speaker 2: agent signing. And so I do think he's kind of
32:52
Speaker 2: burned those bridges at this point. And he really I
32:57
Speaker 2: hate to say he doesn't know where the ball is going,
33:00
Speaker 2: but the thing is, I think that's been most of
33:01
Speaker 2: his career. He really hasn't truly known where the ball's going.
33:03
Speaker 2: He just nobody else knew either. And maybe maybe maybe
33:07
Speaker 2: there's a little velosty uh we rop here that's uh,
33:10
Speaker 2: people actually can decide with us that's going because his
33:13
Speaker 2: veloss he's the lowest has ever been his career by
33:15
Speaker 2: a pretty significant margins, down at ninety four mile an hour,
33:18
Speaker 2: and his peak he was a ninety eight ninety nine guy. So, yeah, Kimbrel,
33:23
Speaker 2: did we see it coming? How did you not?
33:27
Speaker 1: That's what's so weird. It's like I did and I didn't.
33:31
Speaker 1: And if we don't have to say drink you drink
33:33
Speaker 1: the koolaid again? Yes, And if we don't have to
33:36
Speaker 1: say Craig Kimberl anymore, because I can't. I can't even
33:39
Speaker 1: count how many times both of us have kind of
33:42
Speaker 1: tripped over that name. It's just like the all the
33:45
Speaker 1: hard sea sounds and the rs and like, yeah, it's
33:48
Speaker 1: a it's a bit of a mouthful. So it'll be
33:50
Speaker 1: nice to not have to say Craig Kimberrel anymore. So
33:55
Speaker 1: next transaction we have is it's an injury slash transaction.
33:59
Speaker 1: I'm moreocused on the transaction side here. Lance Lynn is
34:03
Speaker 1: hitting the il with a sore knee. I think it's
34:06
Speaker 1: mostly that Lancelyn is done pitching for this season and
34:09
Speaker 1: wants to pack it up. And it's certainly also been
34:14
Speaker 1: a warm September. I wouldn't want to be out there
34:16
Speaker 1: pitching in Saint Louis anymore so Lanceln done for the year.
34:20
Speaker 1: But in instead, we've got my boy Michael McGreevey coming
34:24
Speaker 1: back up to the majors. I think he's walking into
34:27
Speaker 1: a two start next week with at Colorado at San Francisco.
34:33
Speaker 1: Are you rolling the dice there?
34:37
Speaker 2: That's a tough one. It It depends what I'm trying
34:41
Speaker 2: to do. Like it's if I'm in a league chasing
34:45
Speaker 2: some categories, so maybe some wins or some k's, I'm
34:48
Speaker 2: rolling with it. If I'm protecting my whip, I am
34:51
Speaker 2: not rolling with it whatsoever. I think it's you know,
34:54
Speaker 2: but it is a two start week, and you know
34:57
Speaker 2: Cardinal has been playing a little bit better as of late.
35:00
Speaker 2: It's all relative, I guess, And so uh in Colorado
35:04
Speaker 2: is not what it used to beat a pitchon. It's
35:06
Speaker 2: still not good, but it's not as bad as it
35:08
Speaker 2: used to be. So yeah, it's there's worst rolls of
35:12
Speaker 2: the dice there, but probably not one I'm taking unless
35:15
Speaker 2: I'm absolutely desperate at the at the end of the
35:18
Speaker 2: end of the week. The bigger thing that I think
35:20
Speaker 2: you're forgetting lance Lynn got so much grief going to
35:23
Speaker 2: this year, and he had an al standing year for
35:25
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. Yeah, like I mean, all things, all standing
35:28
Speaker 2: might be an over over selling here we're talking about
35:30
Speaker 2: three eighty four e RA one hundred and seventeen innings,
35:33
Speaker 2: seven and four record, But for the ten million dollar
35:36
Speaker 2: I think it was ten million, ten and eleven million
35:38
Speaker 2: dollar contract he had, like you couldn't you know, they
35:42
Speaker 2: got to have so much grief for Kyle Gibson and
35:44
Speaker 2: lance Lynn signings, and those were like the best two
35:46
Speaker 2: pictures they've had. So maybe John Mozailac knows what he's doing,
35:52
Speaker 2: wouldn't go that far, but just maybe Yeah.
35:56
Speaker 1: Well, and I mean their two best pictures that were
36:00
Speaker 1: in the majors. Because Michael mcgreevy's been rotten in Triple
36:02
Speaker 1: A since he's been down. After that great debut he
36:07
Speaker 1: had where he went the seven shutout innings, he's been
36:09
Speaker 1: nails in Triple A. He's made seven starts, two eighty
36:13
Speaker 1: eight ERA over forty and two thirds, two complete games
36:17
Speaker 1: through two complete games. Actually I take that back. One's
36:20
Speaker 1: a seven inning, ones a five inning, so I think
36:23
Speaker 1: there's a rainout in a double header situation. But still
36:26
Speaker 1: he's been really good down in triple A forty two
36:29
Speaker 1: k's and those forty and two thirds that I'm rolling
36:33
Speaker 1: with him in the two start if I need those
36:36
Speaker 1: wins because he's also this is the type of picture
36:40
Speaker 1: where if there's anyone you feel a little bit better
36:43
Speaker 1: with maybe sending them to Colorado. It is a ground
36:45
Speaker 1: ball heavy pitcher like McGreevy, where also the Rockies haven't
36:49
Speaker 1: seen him, and knowing that organization, they also probably don't
36:52
Speaker 1: have a great scouting report on him, so they should
36:56
Speaker 1: be pretty vulnerable to what he throws. And I'm excited
37:00
Speaker 1: for this because McGreevy I think is gonna be one
37:03
Speaker 1: of my sleepers going into next year because he should
37:05
Speaker 1: have a rotation spot in Saint Louis. And it's just
37:08
Speaker 1: like Kyle Gibson reincarnate if Kyle Gibson, I mean, Kyle
37:13
Speaker 1: Gibson isn't dead yet, so I don't know if you
37:15
Speaker 1: can like have your spirit like copied. Maybe it is
37:18
Speaker 1: a clone of Kyle Gibson. But that's what McGreevy is
37:21
Speaker 1: that he's a great sinker ball pitcher, great control, will
37:24
Speaker 1: pick up strikeouts, throws hard. I think it's also a
37:27
Speaker 1: great fit in that ballpark down Saint Louis. I'm gonna
37:31
Speaker 1: be picking him up I think, like I said, in
37:32
Speaker 1: quite a few drafts in the back end, because I
37:35
Speaker 1: don't think he's going to be a very kind of
37:37
Speaker 1: sexier popular name going into the twenty five draft season.
37:40
Speaker 2: Yeah he is. He is one of those guys that,
37:43
Speaker 2: like you after he breaks out and you go back
37:48
Speaker 2: and look at where he came from and kind of
37:50
Speaker 2: the profile, the steadiness, the ground balls, the you know,
37:55
Speaker 2: the way he kind of just made his way through
37:57
Speaker 2: the miners, just doing a little bit of everything good.
38:00
Speaker 2: Like you, You look back, like man, he just why
38:03
Speaker 2: don't we see this coming? Like you very well could
38:05
Speaker 2: feel that type of thing. With McGreevy, I I do
38:10
Speaker 2: kind of question the Cardinals development system the last few
38:13
Speaker 2: years here, So I'm putting a little bit there, but
38:16
Speaker 2: I whole I hope that Yadi Erlina is the next
38:19
Speaker 2: manager of the Cardinals, and then that will instantly give
38:22
Speaker 2: twenty percent more incredibility to every Cardinal player. So Michael
38:26
Speaker 2: McGreevy will absolutely love that because that's player manager, by
38:29
Speaker 2: the way, as I'm predicting, So yes, I like that.
38:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're getting real bold here today. Okay, Well, in
38:38
Speaker 1: a sad bit of news, I reserve some space that
38:42
Speaker 1: we can both more in the loss of Matt Adams
38:46
Speaker 1: in our lives. As he officially retired today, hasn't actually
38:50
Speaker 1: played in a hot minute, so it's been a little
38:54
Speaker 1: bit of a stretch to worry about where he was.
38:57
Speaker 1: Hasn't played since twenty twenty one, when he was in
39:00
Speaker 1: Colorado for a little bit and signed a one day
39:03
Speaker 1: contract with the Cardinals to retire a Cardinal. I know
39:07
Speaker 1: both of us probably have more Matt Adams cards than
39:10
Speaker 1: we'd be we'd care to admit, just because they find
39:13
Speaker 1: your way into collections when they get cheap, and he
39:17
Speaker 1: signed a lot of cards, especially when he was like
39:19
Speaker 1: younger and you know, was kind of a prospect for
39:24
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. Like it wasn't a huge one, but just
39:26
Speaker 1: because he was such a tremendous bat in Triple A,
39:28
Speaker 1: it really popped when he came through that minor league season.
39:31
Speaker 1: I'm always going to remember the homer that he hit
39:34
Speaker 1: off of Clayton Kershaw in the twenty fourteen NLDS that
39:38
Speaker 1: that was like one of the craziest homers I'd ever seen,
39:42
Speaker 1: lefty on lefty and Pete Kershaw and especially Matt Adams
39:45
Speaker 1: was not a person you ever sent up against South Pause,
39:49
Speaker 1: but it was a fun moment. So mazeltof to Matt Adams,
39:53
Speaker 1: and uh, yeah, congrats on your retirement overall, Bud. So
39:57
Speaker 1: I'm going to open up the floor for you to
39:59
Speaker 1: u say your piece about Matt Adams.
40:01
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, well I need to go back and look
40:05
Speaker 2: at that Matt Adams home run because it's possibly might
40:08
Speaker 2: have been out the game, but it's a whole different discussion.
40:13
Speaker 1: And saw that and don't remember.
40:15
Speaker 2: No, well I was, Well, the thing that I'm remembering
40:19
Speaker 2: is I went to an NLDS game where Kershaw got
40:21
Speaker 2: hammered by the Cardinals. But there was multiple of those
40:24
Speaker 2: because because there was kryptonite, and well, I'm pretty sure
40:27
Speaker 2: it wasn't that game because it was one of those
40:28
Speaker 2: games where Michael Waka out dueled Clayton Kershaw in the
40:32
Speaker 2: nld S. And then I think it was the next
40:33
Speaker 2: year that that actually took place. But yeah, you're actually right,
40:38
Speaker 2: Big Country gotta love him. You know, he is that
40:41
Speaker 2: commission you know that that prototypical Cardinals, you know, voodoo
40:46
Speaker 2: magic type of player. Not quite Alan Craig asked, but
40:50
Speaker 2: you know, very very close to it, and the fact
40:53
Speaker 2: that he made a career of just being this like
40:56
Speaker 2: bopper that came in and I think he's just also
40:59
Speaker 2: is just genuinely great guy, like great for the club house.
41:04
Speaker 2: Ever loved him. You know, he played the whole minor
41:07
Speaker 2: league season the Nationals last year, didn't sniff the majors
41:10
Speaker 2: and had no problem with it. He played the independaball
41:13
Speaker 2: like he still like seemed to have fun zest for
41:15
Speaker 2: the game. And so I love Matt Adams. Was you know,
41:19
Speaker 2: happy to see the sign the one day retire the Cardinals.
41:22
Speaker 2: To your point, we will not talk about the size
41:24
Speaker 2: of the Matt Adams PC. Probably accidental PC is probably
41:28
Speaker 2: fair on that one. But wishing to all the best
41:31
Speaker 2: for Matt adams retirement.
41:33
Speaker 1: Yes, exactly. So I knew the name Big City, But
41:38
Speaker 1: did you know his other nickname? I just find it
41:43
Speaker 1: out reference.
41:44
Speaker 2: Give me his other one, Jumbo Pepsi, Jumbo Pepsi.
41:49
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to look up the story behind that one.
41:51
Speaker 1: After this. That that's that's a good one. Jumbo Pepsi.
41:55
Speaker 2: Oh I misspoke. I called the big Big Country, but
41:58
Speaker 2: the city well, yeah, I know, I just didn't bad
42:02
Speaker 2: their big city in jumbo PEPSI. Yep, We're to have
42:08
Speaker 2: to put the podcast research department on that one later
42:13
Speaker 2: later today, Yes, precisely.
42:16
Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's move on to a little bit of
42:18
Speaker 1: card news before we take a break and come back
42:20
Speaker 1: with those second half breakouts. So no change to the
42:24
Speaker 1: overall calendar. In terms of releases coming up, I did
42:27
Speaker 1: see that Tops Update pre order came out on tops
42:30
Speaker 1: dot com, So they're actually offering a bundle deal of
42:34
Speaker 1: Update with one hobby box and a value box, so
42:39
Speaker 1: a blaster box for one hundred bucks. So I think
42:43
Speaker 1: that'll be pretty popular with people. I would say be
42:46
Speaker 1: careful because those hobby boxes are not going to have
42:49
Speaker 1: a guaranteed auto in them. That they're going to have
42:51
Speaker 1: a guaranteed auto or relic, and I'm pretty sure that
42:55
Speaker 1: once again it's going to be the situation where those
42:57
Speaker 1: fake patch relics were like the manufactured ones will count
43:02
Speaker 1: and that will be a bloodbath for those hobby boxes
43:05
Speaker 1: because Tops is certainly ready to cash in on this
43:08
Speaker 1: rookie class and Update is going to be a bonanza
43:11
Speaker 1: that like, honestly, I don't remember the last time I've
43:13
Speaker 1: seen such a significant kind of pre order set up
43:16
Speaker 1: for update or that type of package. So that's a
43:20
Speaker 1: pretty good indicator of how hard I think pot Tops
43:22
Speaker 1: is going to be pushing this out in the market.
43:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking forward to this set. I think it's
43:27
Speaker 2: gonna be fun. It's gonna be one of the best
43:29
Speaker 2: update sets for for the last few years to your point,
43:32
Speaker 2: But it's also how far do they go? How far
43:36
Speaker 2: does tops overproduce it and just water down the fun?
43:39
Speaker 2: So yeah, time will time, time will tell. I don't
43:44
Speaker 2: know that we really need to wait time on this one.
43:46
Speaker 2: We can kind of predict where it's going to go.
43:48
Speaker 1: Yes, exactly. Well, we've got a little bit of a
43:51
Speaker 1: couple of fun stories, I would say in the baseball
43:53
Speaker 1: card space compared to get a little negative here in
43:57
Speaker 1: there on some of the new stuff. But I think
44:00
Speaker 1: especially like it seems like the New York Times and
44:03
Speaker 1: The Athletic have been kind of like working the baseball
44:06
Speaker 1: card beat a little bit more, which is fantastic for
44:09
Speaker 1: us because certainly brings new stories to light. And one
44:11
Speaker 1: of them that they uncovered I will link to this
44:14
Speaker 1: in the show notes, is that a new York Times
44:16
Speaker 1: piece on this guy who picked up this twenty million
44:19
Speaker 1: dollar or twenty million card baseball card collection from somebody
44:25
Speaker 1: who was having an estate sale. And it's just a
44:28
Speaker 1: great read in terms of like seeing the lengths that
44:31
Speaker 1: he has to go to to try to maintain this thing. Also,
44:34
Speaker 1: it's really funny like thinking like he's trying to develop
44:37
Speaker 1: it into like a podcast and have like a TV show,
44:41
Speaker 1: like like you know, something akin to what's on History
44:45
Speaker 1: Channel nowadays, or a museum or stuff. And not to
44:50
Speaker 1: like burst his bubble too much, but I do wish
44:51
Speaker 1: him luck trying to take some of those pursuits underneath
44:55
Speaker 1: his wing, considering I know what some of the ad
44:58
Speaker 1: revenue for baseball card podcasts kind of kicks back. And
45:03
Speaker 1: it's just like a crazy story in terms of like
45:05
Speaker 1: these twenty million cards. He's been moving them around from
45:09
Speaker 1: place to place, from like retail front locations and renting
45:13
Speaker 1: old stores to be able store on the hall. He
45:15
Speaker 1: had to buy like thousands of dollars of racking just
45:17
Speaker 1: to be able to like put them somewhere. And some
45:21
Speaker 1: of the cards that he's got in there are absolutely crazy.
45:24
Speaker 1: You're looking at every top set from nineteen fifty four
45:29
Speaker 1: to twenty sixteen, ten thousand Michael Jordan cards, six thousand
45:33
Speaker 1: Kobe Bryant's four thousand Lebrons, five ish Babe Bruce, and
45:37
Speaker 1: then all sorts of like T two O six's T
45:40
Speaker 1: two o five bats balls catching gear worn by Bill Dickey,
45:47
Speaker 1: and like, this dude hasn't even like gotten into much
45:50
Speaker 1: of what he like even has, like he's only cracked
45:52
Speaker 1: the surface. And it's also there's a great kind of
45:55
Speaker 1: sidebar and in the story of it reminds me of
45:59
Speaker 1: like something like we would do where he had like
46:01
Speaker 1: a buddy come in to try to like help him
46:03
Speaker 1: for a little bit, and the buddy was like, ah,
46:04
Speaker 1: this is way too much. Although I'm just gonna throw
46:08
Speaker 1: this out there. His name is Tim Banazek. I think
46:14
Speaker 1: I'm saying that right, But Tim Bannazek, this is your call.
46:17
Speaker 1: If you need somebody to help you sort through these
46:19
Speaker 1: twenty million baseball cards, Jeremy and I will help. And uh,
46:23
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm voluntelling you, I guess, but I'm guessing
46:26
Speaker 1: you're down right.
46:26
Speaker 2: I'm I'm so down like I it will take me
46:30
Speaker 2: a long time. Let me let me own that it
46:32
Speaker 2: takes me like two hours to go through like a
46:35
Speaker 2: small like box of cards, like because you gotta check
46:38
Speaker 2: it all out, because you can miss things so easily.
46:42
Speaker 2: But like just I mean, I've seen a few pictures
46:44
Speaker 2: of this, and it's just like the treasure trove that
46:48
Speaker 2: like this this is and from as a as a
46:52
Speaker 2: card collector, the the possibilities and the way that you
46:55
Speaker 2: approach this is so so vast and I do actually
47:00
Speaker 2: appreciate maybe not to the same degree of where he's
47:03
Speaker 2: going with it, but like the thinking about how to
47:05
Speaker 2: take advantage of this collection and do different things with it,
47:10
Speaker 2: and so like it does feel like you should be
47:12
Speaker 2: creating some museum to a degree of this, Like we
47:16
Speaker 2: don't know what he paid for the collection. It has
47:19
Speaker 2: to be an insane amount for what's in there. But
47:23
Speaker 2: like you could start your own card store just with
47:27
Speaker 2: the collection, right, you know, I would be going through
47:30
Speaker 2: every single of those complete sets and trying to find
47:32
Speaker 2: like the highest quality, you know, Willie's May's Rookie and
47:37
Speaker 2: Jackie Robinson Rookie and all those kind of things, and
47:39
Speaker 2: like grading them. Like there's just so much fun things
47:43
Speaker 2: you could do with us, And what's your point it's
47:46
Speaker 2: not just baseball, it's basketball, it's it's signed baseball, designed
47:49
Speaker 2: bats like that. It's just such a vast collection and
47:52
Speaker 2: it's probably endless, and it's probably can just give you
47:58
Speaker 2: years of inner tament and fun. But he has to
48:02
Speaker 2: realize at some point he's got to do the same
48:03
Speaker 2: thing with this collection. So if you're not gonna call,
48:06
Speaker 2: you gotta start calling nothing down and letting others enjoy
48:10
Speaker 2: the beauty that is. So fifty years to create that collection,
48:14
Speaker 2: it's gonna take fifty years to kind of break that
48:16
Speaker 2: down and get the full enjoyment for the world out
48:19
Speaker 2: of it.
48:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it'll be fascinating to see what he uncovers
48:23
Speaker 1: in it. So hopefully we get more stories from him
48:26
Speaker 1: going forward. And I think it's also great that the
48:28
Speaker 1: cover photo for the story is him just standing next
48:31
Speaker 1: to I don't know what, is it like like forty
48:37
Speaker 1: tops eighty seven sets. It's like it would also just
48:42
Speaker 1: be cool to see, like what the levels of like
48:44
Speaker 1: this collection are. Is there a lot of vintage or
48:46
Speaker 1: is it just like all late eighty stuff where it's
48:50
Speaker 1: just if you sent us in there, we would be
48:52
Speaker 1: marveling at each Todd Zeal and Tom pag Nazi that
48:55
Speaker 1: we pulled out and probably just annoying this guy to
48:59
Speaker 1: his wits end.
49:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, it'd be like, please just take it and leave.
49:05
Speaker 1: And then the other piece of news that we came
49:07
Speaker 1: that came out just today. It was in on the
49:11
Speaker 1: Athletic today, So I will again link to this piece.
49:15
Speaker 1: But Dennis Lynn, the beat reporter for the San Diego Padres,
49:21
Speaker 1: really dove into the mystery behind the Jackson Merril Bowman
49:24
Speaker 1: first that we discussed the other week when we put
49:27
Speaker 1: Jackson Merril into our Player of the Month PC that
49:30
Speaker 1: there is a different player on the front of his
49:33
Speaker 1: Bowman first card, and it goes through how it got
49:36
Speaker 1: mixed up in terms of how at like a high
49:39
Speaker 1: school game, even it got entered incorrectly into the box
49:42
Speaker 1: score too. That the that's what also threw off the
49:45
Speaker 1: photographer when he was labeling all this and getting it
49:47
Speaker 1: through the production line with tops that it is the
49:53
Speaker 1: player that we had mentioned previously. It is Isaac Frye
49:56
Speaker 1: on the front of it, and he came in to
49:58
Speaker 1: pinch hit for Jackson Merril at the end of this
49:59
Speaker 1: like high school showcase and now is just like forever
50:03
Speaker 1: plastered on the Bowman first of what I think is
50:06
Speaker 1: the presumptive in all Rookie of the Year, And it's
50:08
Speaker 1: just really funny that Jackson Merrill is going to be
50:12
Speaker 1: set to be this big star in MLB going forward,
50:15
Speaker 1: but his Bowman first card has the picture of this guy,
50:19
Speaker 1: Isaac Frye, who is just a high school like youth
50:23
Speaker 1: baseball coach. Now, so it's a fascinating read, really fun
50:27
Speaker 1: just to kind of round out that conversation that we
50:29
Speaker 1: had the other week on Jackson Merril.
50:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's just the fact that we talked about
50:36
Speaker 2: it and now we're getting a full backstor is just
50:38
Speaker 2: is pretty incredible, and it just gives you a little
50:41
Speaker 2: bit of insight into like how these things happen. We
50:43
Speaker 2: give tops such a hard time for what goes on,
50:45
Speaker 2: Like maybe it wasn't actually their fault, Like yeah, it's
50:48
Speaker 2: still kind of was, but like you know, the chain, say,
50:51
Speaker 2: the chain of custody of the photos of a high
50:54
Speaker 2: school ballplayer is probably something folks don't really think about.
50:59
Speaker 2: So a lot of fun here Jackson Merrill. All the
51:04
Speaker 2: best to him here. I think he's gonna be the
51:05
Speaker 2: a little Rookie the Year as you mentioned, and uh,
51:08
Speaker 2: what do you think he's doing in drafts next year?
51:10
Speaker 2: I'm just i gotta put you on the spot here
51:12
Speaker 2: because I've been I've been really struggling with where I
51:15
Speaker 2: see Jackson Merrill like next year, because he just seems
51:18
Speaker 2: like he keeps getting better, and like every time I
51:21
Speaker 2: look at him was like, man, he is like he's like,
51:24
Speaker 2: oh man, this is like like you know, top you know,
51:26
Speaker 2: seventy five players also in the top fifty's, Like is
51:29
Speaker 2: he a top twenty five player? Like what happened? Like
51:34
Speaker 2: and is this sustainable? And I does? It looks like
51:37
Speaker 2: it is. So I don't know. I gotta throw that
51:40
Speaker 2: out at you. What are you doing with with Jackson
51:41
Speaker 2: Merril next year?
51:43
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, he's gonna be up there like I would.
51:47
Speaker 2: I don't know.
51:48
Speaker 1: I was kind of anticipating that you'd be able to
51:50
Speaker 1: get him maybe in the third round, but he's gonna
51:53
Speaker 1: be pushed into the second round. I think that on
51:55
Speaker 1: our player rader right now, he is the twenty fifth
51:58
Speaker 1: overall player, like period, twenty fifth overall player at twenty
52:02
Speaker 1: five dollars. Uh, it's I mean that's a back of
52:07
Speaker 1: the second round type player. The plate skills look tremendous,
52:11
Speaker 1: like they are otherworldly and honestly, like I view him
52:15
Speaker 1: almost a little bit of like a Corey seeker, but
52:19
Speaker 1: with power, with speed and so like, once you start
52:23
Speaker 1: making that comparison, which I have in my head and
52:26
Speaker 1: just said out loud, that that shows you where the
52:30
Speaker 1: ceiling can be. He's only twenty one, he'd learned centerfield
52:33
Speaker 1: on the fly. That that shows you the level of
52:37
Speaker 1: athleticism he has too. That I think he's going go
52:41
Speaker 1: pretty firmly, like in the middle of the second round
52:43
Speaker 1: as people see where that value has ended for this
52:47
Speaker 1: season and project on top of it as he goes
52:51
Speaker 1: into his age twenty two season.
52:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're you're right there. It's uh, it's
52:56
Speaker 2: gonna be a feeding frenzy for Jectson Merril, next next,
52:58
Speaker 2: next spring.
52:59
Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely. All right, Well, we're going to take a
53:02
Speaker 1: short break and we will be back discussing some of
53:04
Speaker 1: those second half breakouts. So stick around, all right, Welcome
53:25
Speaker 1: back everybody. As we get into some discussions on second
53:28
Speaker 1: half breakout players. And I don't know if we necessarily
53:32
Speaker 1: have like a great rule of thumb or kind of
53:34
Speaker 1: great way of like defining this as much as like,
53:38
Speaker 1: really we're looking at players who, especially when you look
53:42
Speaker 1: at their season overall value line, it might look me
53:46
Speaker 1: you know, mediocre and just kind of mid overall, but
53:50
Speaker 1: when you really dive into it and see like that
53:53
Speaker 1: the production has come, especially within the past couple months
53:58
Speaker 1: post All Star break, is really what we're looking I
54:00
Speaker 1: know it's also not maybe the greatest split this year,
54:04
Speaker 1: considering how heavy the first half was, but I will
54:07
Speaker 1: be spouting a lot of like first half second half
54:09
Speaker 1: stats that I'm not going to say that they're necessarily gospel,
54:12
Speaker 1: but I think all these players that we're going to
54:16
Speaker 1: discuss are going to be interested in going into twenty
54:19
Speaker 1: twenty five. And I've certainly peaked both of our interests.
54:21
Speaker 1: As you know, they've been either useful in Fantasy down
54:24
Speaker 1: the stretch over the past couple of months or are
54:28
Speaker 1: going to be like main targets for us going into
54:30
Speaker 1: drafts next year. In terms of these guys, I think
54:34
Speaker 1: we've got a handful of them, where like I said,
54:36
Speaker 1: I'll get into their total like yearly values and you'll be,
54:41
Speaker 1: I think astounded by how good a couple of those
54:44
Speaker 1: months have been to be able to produce that value,
54:46
Speaker 1: and also you can, I think look at it and
54:50
Speaker 1: like know that these are players who also have a
54:54
Speaker 1: little bit more juice in that lemon to squeeze out.
54:57
Speaker 1: So what types of like players do you think fall
55:01
Speaker 1: into this bucket more? For you? Are you looking for
55:04
Speaker 1: guys who are kind of like progressing as they develop
55:08
Speaker 1: an age? So I would say we've got some of those.
55:11
Speaker 1: We've also got some players who have been a little
55:14
Speaker 1: bit maybe more established and are showing new skills. And
55:17
Speaker 1: so which of those buckets are you really looking at
55:21
Speaker 1: to be able to kind of analyze players from the
55:23
Speaker 1: second half that you think can produce going into twenty
55:26
Speaker 1: twenty five, and like, which do you prefer?
55:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think you look at both things there.
55:32
Speaker 2: I think if I'm on the hitting side of things,
55:34
Speaker 2: I'm generally looking at guys that are kind of coming up,
55:38
Speaker 2: younger guys that are figuring things out. That's kind of
55:40
Speaker 2: what I'm looking for, Like are have they kind of
55:43
Speaker 2: found their way? And then if I go to the
55:45
Speaker 2: pitching side, I'm a lot of times looking for the
55:47
Speaker 2: guy that's made adjustment, he's done something different, he's trying
55:50
Speaker 2: a new pitch, he's got a new location. He's tried to,
55:55
Speaker 2: you know, switch to where he's coming off the rubber
55:58
Speaker 2: with his first base side of third base side, or
56:00
Speaker 2: he's literally got a change of scenery like something, you know,
56:03
Speaker 2: made a trade and gone over to some somewhere with
56:06
Speaker 2: a great pitching factory, and they kind of unleash something
56:08
Speaker 2: like all like Cole Reagan's last year. Like that's kind
56:11
Speaker 2: of the things that I'm I'm looking for. It does vary,
56:14
Speaker 2: I think by picture against against hitter and at the
56:17
Speaker 2: other the end of the day, I'm also just looking
56:18
Speaker 2: at the guys that they did something and trying to
56:20
Speaker 2: figure out is it real? Like that? That's that's the big,
56:23
Speaker 2: the big question all these guys, because they're the breakouts,
56:27
Speaker 2: often kind of go unnoticed or they get like they
56:30
Speaker 2: can be so stark that all of a sudden, everybody's
56:32
Speaker 2: talking about like, uh, Royce Lewis last year, like he
56:35
Speaker 2: like he had every he was breaking out and nobody
56:38
Speaker 2: knew it, and then he went on a grand slam
56:39
Speaker 2: barrage and then all of a sudden, everybody knew it.
56:42
Speaker 2: And that's that, you know, that's the danger with these
56:44
Speaker 2: kind of guys, as if you're hoping that they sneak
56:47
Speaker 2: by like that might not be the case, but it's
56:51
Speaker 2: really about figuring out who's real and who's not at
56:53
Speaker 2: the end of the day.
56:55
Speaker 1: Okay, well, yeah, we've got, like I said, a mix
56:57
Speaker 1: of batters and pictures and a little bit of a
57:01
Speaker 1: mix age wise too. Yeah, so we've got kind of
57:04
Speaker 1: all across the board. So let's dive into our first player,
57:07
Speaker 1: and that is Lawrence Butler, outfielder from the Oakland A's,
57:11
Speaker 1: who had okay first half, especially given that you know
57:16
Speaker 1: it was his first fora into real full playing time. Obviously,
57:20
Speaker 1: he debuted last year but was given more of a
57:23
Speaker 1: chance with Oakland this year. In the first half he
57:28
Speaker 1: ended up slashing two eleven two eighty four h six
57:32
Speaker 1: for a ninety six WRC plus. Second half has been
57:37
Speaker 1: outstanding like MVP level three twenty three sixty five six
57:41
Speaker 1: fifteen slug for the on the Oakland Athletics Florence Butler
57:46
Speaker 1: one seventy five WRC plus in the second half, cut
57:49
Speaker 1: his k rate from twenty nine and a half to
57:51
Speaker 1: eighteen point three percent in first half to second half,
57:56
Speaker 1: and all this has also come with a really glowing
58:00
Speaker 1: that first half Lawrence Butler was on lots of people's
58:03
Speaker 1: radars because the production wasn't there, but the savant page
58:07
Speaker 1: was that he had been impacting the ball really well.
58:10
Speaker 1: I really love Lawrence Butler for a breakout pick going forward.
58:15
Speaker 1: Just a super athletic guy too, six foot three, two ten,
58:19
Speaker 1: He's huge and like you can see where the power
58:22
Speaker 1: comes from. What do you think about Lawrence Butler kind
58:25
Speaker 1: of where he's standing at now and what you're going
58:27
Speaker 1: to be doing with him going to twenty five?
58:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I honestly really struggle with Lawrence Butler. Like he
58:34
Speaker 2: I look at him and it feels like it's too
58:36
Speaker 2: good to be true. And then you'll start to look
58:39
Speaker 2: at the profile and you find a lot of little
58:41
Speaker 2: things that you don't like, and you find a lot
58:42
Speaker 2: of things you do. And so I'm really middling on
58:46
Speaker 2: Lawrence Butler, and I think it's gonna be one of
58:48
Speaker 2: those where his hype is going to be more than
58:50
Speaker 2: I can't actually afford because because what I said, there's
58:54
Speaker 2: a lot you like, right you look at it here
58:56
Speaker 2: and he seems to make improvements with his plate approach.
58:59
Speaker 2: His savont page is glowing. You know, he he does
59:03
Speaker 2: a great job of spraying the ball to all fields.
59:06
Speaker 2: He looks like he's just maturing. He's he's just figuring
59:09
Speaker 2: how things out. He is a little bit of a
59:12
Speaker 2: streaky hitter. He can he can go crazy and then
59:15
Speaker 2: he can disappear. But that that can work for guys.
59:18
Speaker 2: Elie de la Cruz is a streaky hitter and it's
59:20
Speaker 2: worked out just okay this year for him. So I
59:24
Speaker 2: think he's gonna definitely be rising up draft boards into
59:28
Speaker 2: spring next year. And there's no reason he doesn't have
59:31
Speaker 2: full time, full playing time. Things that he's he's earned it.
59:34
Speaker 2: Nothing he can do the last week and half of
59:36
Speaker 2: the season here to unearned that. I do think he's
59:39
Speaker 2: had a little luck in the home run department, so
59:41
Speaker 2: I think that's gonna step step back to a degree.
59:45
Speaker 2: And so you know, he he had twenty two homers
59:48
Speaker 2: one hundred and sixteen games. He appeeled. To me, he
59:50
Speaker 2: feels like a twenty twenty five homer guy in his
59:53
Speaker 2: peak overall, and maybe that's underselling him, but I also
59:58
Speaker 2: think from a speeder active, you know, he he had
1:00:01
Speaker 2: fifteen steals and didn't get caught once this year. But
1:00:05
Speaker 2: you know, it is that going to hold, he isn't
1:00:08
Speaker 2: the fastest guy his his his sprint speed. Have you
1:00:11
Speaker 2: looked at the sprint speed to know what percentile he has?
1:00:13
Speaker 1: I mean I'm staring right, Okay, so he's a.
1:00:16
Speaker 2: Sixty sixty first person. We haven't done one of those
1:00:19
Speaker 2: guests how fast the guy is recently, but he's sixty
1:00:22
Speaker 2: first percentile sprint speed. So it's not not blazing fast.
1:00:26
Speaker 2: He's just an athletic dude. So, like I said, there's
1:00:29
Speaker 2: there's a lot of these things that like look good,
1:00:31
Speaker 2: but I there's just something about Lawrence Butler that I
1:00:34
Speaker 2: don't think I can flow up on board. And then
1:00:36
Speaker 2: the thing that kind of puts the nail on the
1:00:38
Speaker 2: conference for me, like I don't think I'll be able
1:00:39
Speaker 2: to keep up with the hype next year is the
1:00:42
Speaker 2: similar batters to Lawrence Butler on Savant. That's I kind
1:00:45
Speaker 2: of go to that for a lot of times, like
1:00:47
Speaker 2: the guy that have a similar approach, similar batter brawl profiles,
1:00:50
Speaker 2: And I read that list, it's just like it's all
1:00:53
Speaker 2: like it's guys, and I'm like, either have it become
1:00:56
Speaker 2: something or like or always seem like they're on the
1:00:58
Speaker 2: precipice of becoming something but just don't quite get there
1:01:01
Speaker 2: is Christian Benttencourt, Jake Berger, Austin Hayes, Oscar Collis, Zegil
1:01:06
Speaker 2: Duran like, and that's exactly how I feel about Lawrence Butler.
1:01:11
Speaker 2: Like there's a few guys that are like, I want
1:01:13
Speaker 2: to like you, I want to think you can break out,
1:01:16
Speaker 2: I want to think you can do it, and then
1:01:18
Speaker 2: you just always disappoint me. And that's where I feel
1:01:21
Speaker 2: like I'm at with Lawrence Butler. And I can't point
1:01:23
Speaker 2: to a stat about it. I can't, So there's just
1:01:25
Speaker 2: something that tells me, like, this might be the best
1:01:28
Speaker 2: Lawrence Butler ever is, even though the numbers say I'm wrong.
1:01:33
Speaker 2: So I'm going with the gut feel on this one.
1:01:36
Speaker 2: I'm not really probably buying Lawrence Butler, but I don't
1:01:39
Speaker 2: fault you if you are.
1:01:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think I am, because I think
1:01:42
Speaker 1: he is ascending that like this. I think this is
1:01:46
Speaker 1: a little bit of like where there is a buying
1:01:50
Speaker 1: opportunity because with that overall like hit or profile, it's
1:01:55
Speaker 1: comparing full season Lawrence Butler to those guys, and he
1:02:00
Speaker 1: has looked like a different player in the second half
1:02:03
Speaker 1: in terms of his plate approach. Also, you know who
1:02:06
Speaker 1: else has sixty first percent tile speed Ronald Lacunia Junior.
1:02:10
Speaker 1: Actually like on the nose, they have the same sprint speed.
1:02:13
Speaker 1: So there is like a savviness that I think he
1:02:15
Speaker 1: has for stealing bases, which is why he's also not
1:02:18
Speaker 1: been caught like that shows it's not like a pure
1:02:22
Speaker 1: volume guy like Joe Adell or something where like he's
1:02:25
Speaker 1: being sent so much. I think he's picking his spots
1:02:28
Speaker 1: and is good at it. Only twenty four, he was
1:02:31
Speaker 1: a really great just kind of prospect coming through the
1:02:34
Speaker 1: A system as well as I'm actually I think this
1:02:39
Speaker 1: is a great buying opportunity in dynasties and keepers and
1:02:43
Speaker 1: have an up arrow on his power because they should
1:02:46
Speaker 1: be playing in Sacramento last year or next year, and
1:02:49
Speaker 1: I think it's probably going to track something close to
1:02:52
Speaker 1: like Cincinnati, Like that's how high end I think he'll
1:02:55
Speaker 1: be in terms of the hitters park. And he would
1:02:58
Speaker 1: have had thirty or two twenty seven homers, and I'm
1:03:01
Speaker 1: looking at his total his career toll would be thirty
1:03:03
Speaker 1: two in Cincinnati compared to his actual twenty six this year,
1:03:07
Speaker 1: it would have been twenty seven homers in Cincinnati because
1:03:10
Speaker 1: he does have a pole heavy approach and from what
1:03:13
Speaker 1: I've read, the lines in Sacramento are pretty short. So
1:03:17
Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's an up arrow on all
1:03:19
Speaker 1: Oakland Athletics power player is going forward that it's going
1:03:22
Speaker 1: to be something that I think we'll want to start
1:03:25
Speaker 1: to lock in now before everybody kind of picks up
1:03:28
Speaker 1: on that going into next year.
1:03:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a really good call out there.
1:03:33
Speaker 2: That's a unique situation, and that is a big switch
1:03:37
Speaker 2: from that coliseum right there. That's a very significant switch.
1:03:41
Speaker 2: So there are guys that are gonna get really big
1:03:43
Speaker 2: bumps bumps there. So Butler's gonna be an interesting one
1:03:46
Speaker 2: to go into next year. Absolutely, don't blame you for
1:03:48
Speaker 2: being excited, and I get I just I can't explain
1:03:51
Speaker 2: why I'm not as excited as you. But that's okay,
1:03:54
Speaker 2: that's what makes this game fun.
1:03:57
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, let's get on to our next player, and
1:03:59
Speaker 1: we're actually we're gonna in Oakland. We're gonna stick on
1:04:01
Speaker 1: the athletics team. And when we say I say this name,
1:04:05
Speaker 1: you're probably gonna grown it is Brent Rooker because you're like, hey,
1:04:09
Speaker 1: wasn't he an All Star? Didn't he have a great
1:04:11
Speaker 1: first half? Isn't he a top ten player on the
1:04:15
Speaker 1: RAS ball player raider w'th thirty seven dollars, Which that's insane,
1:04:21
Speaker 1: Like that is absolutely crazy that he's gonna end up
1:04:24
Speaker 1: being like a top ten overall player. Should have gone
1:04:28
Speaker 1: technically in the first round. That'd be great if you
1:04:31
Speaker 1: went back into like a time machine and like we're
1:04:33
Speaker 1: able to do like a twenty twenty four draft and
1:04:35
Speaker 1: you took like Brent Rooker with like the twelfth pick,
1:04:38
Speaker 1: just like blew everybody's minds, it'd be great. But Brent Rooker,
1:04:43
Speaker 1: there's even after that great first half, there's been skills
1:04:46
Speaker 1: improvement in this profile, which is crazy to think about.
1:04:50
Speaker 1: So he in the first half ended up hitting two
1:04:55
Speaker 1: ninety one three sixty nine five seventy three that's a
1:04:58
Speaker 1: one sixty six WRC plus. Second half has been a
1:05:01
Speaker 1: little bit better three seventeen, three seventy six, six hundred
1:05:05
Speaker 1: one to seventy five WRC plus. But he's significantly cut
1:05:10
Speaker 1: he's k rate. It was thirty two point six percent
1:05:12
Speaker 1: in the first half, twenty two point one percent here
1:05:16
Speaker 1: in the second half. And I mean, everything is glowing
1:05:21
Speaker 1: on his overall savant page too. It's a obviously there's
1:05:25
Speaker 1: the swing in the miss, but when he makes contact,
1:05:28
Speaker 1: he does damage. I mean, I already know that you're
1:05:32
Speaker 1: into Brent Rooker, that you've always loved Brent Rooker. I
1:05:34
Speaker 1: guess what are you doing with him going into drafts
1:05:38
Speaker 1: next year? Like what area are you looking to actually
1:05:41
Speaker 1: target him and draft him and not feel like you
1:05:44
Speaker 1: overpaid too much? Brent Rooker?
1:05:49
Speaker 2: I love him to death, Like you're absolutely right, and
1:05:51
Speaker 2: like you talking about hitting Sacramento just gets me, you know,
1:05:55
Speaker 2: gets me giddy, Like the things he could do. He
1:05:58
Speaker 2: had fifty homers. Is here he all, you're in Sacramento, Cincinnati.
1:06:03
Speaker 2: I'm give him a little bit extra for the rest
1:06:05
Speaker 2: of the season. He's gonna be No, You're right, Like
1:06:08
Speaker 2: it's just it. It would be crazy to see what
1:06:10
Speaker 2: he could do. And uh, you know, it looks like
1:06:13
Speaker 2: on the surface he's had a little luck this year
1:06:15
Speaker 2: because he's hit for an actual average, which is you know,
1:06:19
Speaker 2: that was kind of his struggle. But he's saying over
1:06:22
Speaker 2: three hundred Now, is he a three hundred hitter?
1:06:25
Speaker 1: No?
1:06:25
Speaker 2: Is anybody these days really a three hundred hitter? Sorry,
1:06:28
Speaker 2: Luis Arias, but like it, it's it's you know, he
1:06:34
Speaker 2: ends up. He's going to be a two seventy to
1:06:36
Speaker 2: eighty hitter and he can hit fifty bombs and he's
1:06:39
Speaker 2: gonna actually run a little bit his sprit scene. He's
1:06:43
Speaker 2: just slightly slower butler, but he's you know, still stolen
1:06:48
Speaker 2: eleven bases this year. Like this profile is just crazy,
1:06:51
Speaker 2: and the quality of context has good been so good.
1:06:54
Speaker 2: The only problem in the profile is the strikeouts. But
1:06:59
Speaker 2: I think you called it skill change. That's dropped ten
1:07:03
Speaker 2: points in the second half. He has dropped his strikeout
1:07:06
Speaker 2: right considerably and he just looked even better. So I'm
1:07:12
Speaker 2: all in on Britt Rooker. I like, yeah, I I
1:07:15
Speaker 2: feel like I'm taking him in like the second or
1:07:17
Speaker 2: third round, Like is that crazy?
1:07:19
Speaker 1: I feel like that's where he has to go. It's
1:07:22
Speaker 1: gonna be really hard, but it is. I think even
1:07:25
Speaker 1: the projections will probably put him in that range because
1:07:29
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, I just don't see
1:07:30
Speaker 1: how the projections don't make him like a mid thirties
1:07:34
Speaker 1: home homer guy with like essentially this is Ottolas Garcia
1:07:39
Speaker 1: with a few less steals and like, yeah, and he
1:07:44
Speaker 1: went to the second and third round this year. That
1:07:47
Speaker 1: like it's a tough profile to handle. I mean, he's
1:07:51
Speaker 1: at least like he will be turning thirty here in November,
1:07:55
Speaker 1: so like it's not like you're talking about a guy
1:07:57
Speaker 1: who's like breaking out even into like his mid thirties
1:08:01
Speaker 1: that you know you've seen with like Christian Walker and
1:08:05
Speaker 1: especially like some of those JD. Martinez seasons when he
1:08:09
Speaker 1: was good but was really starting to get advanced in age.
1:08:12
Speaker 1: I yeah, I think so, like that's what everything's going
1:08:15
Speaker 1: to point to.
1:08:16
Speaker 2: It'll be just.
1:08:18
Speaker 1: Really compelling to see where he ends up falling in
1:08:22
Speaker 1: draft season because certainly, like yeah, if he's in the
1:08:26
Speaker 1: fourth and fifth round stone and is hanging out, I
1:08:28
Speaker 1: think you've got to pop him.
1:08:30
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I absolutely think you think you have to
1:08:32
Speaker 2: do that. I mean, at the end of the day,
1:08:34
Speaker 2: like he just he's just being who he is, Like
1:08:37
Speaker 2: he's just pulling the ball every fancy gets and he's
1:08:40
Speaker 2: just socking it out like that. He doesn't seem to care.
1:08:43
Speaker 2: And probably of any guys that like this, getting rid
1:08:46
Speaker 2: of the shift helps Brent Rookers really appreciative of that.
1:08:50
Speaker 2: You know, he's he's a forty three percent poll guy
1:08:52
Speaker 2: that's six points over the league average. So he's having
1:08:56
Speaker 2: a grand old time there and he can't be happier
1:08:58
Speaker 2: to not be hitting an open next year.
1:09:01
Speaker 1: Yes, and other than maybe you, that's true. Okay, next
1:09:06
Speaker 1: player we have and this is the veteran I was
1:09:09
Speaker 1: talking about, So the thirty three year old Auhenio Suarez
1:09:13
Speaker 1: has risen from the ashes where I mean this getting
1:09:17
Speaker 1: back to the Kimberle talk, like I had buried Suarez,
1:09:21
Speaker 1: like during the All Star break, after a first half
1:09:24
Speaker 1: that was absolutely dreadful. He would hit two sixteen three
1:09:28
Speaker 1: h two three sixty six for an eighty seven WRC plus.
1:09:33
Speaker 1: And yes, that is a six sixty eight ops from
1:09:39
Speaker 1: who has somebody who's been a power hitter throughout his career.
1:09:43
Speaker 1: The second half has been the complete opposite. He's worked
1:09:46
Speaker 1: his way up to being the number eight overall third
1:09:49
Speaker 1: baseman and our rasball rankings worth twenty one dollars right now.
1:09:54
Speaker 1: And that's on the tails of a three sixteen, three
1:09:56
Speaker 1: point fifty six forty six second half of one sixty
1:10:00
Speaker 1: six WRC plus. Another guy here who cut his strikeout rate,
1:10:06
Speaker 1: the walk rate also fell. It is a little bit
1:10:09
Speaker 1: of like you can also see the narrative where Suarez
1:10:13
Speaker 1: was traded in the off season that maybe it took
1:10:15
Speaker 1: him a little time to get settled there in Arizona.
1:10:17
Speaker 1: But do you think there is something else going on
1:10:20
Speaker 1: in terms of either a skills change or is it
1:10:22
Speaker 1: just Suarez finding comfort and running into a hot streak
1:10:26
Speaker 1: and then what are you gonna end up doing with
1:10:29
Speaker 1: him going into the twenty five draft.
1:10:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's it's still you know Suarez, Like,
1:10:35
Speaker 2: I think that's where I'm like, he has looked good,
1:10:37
Speaker 2: things have done well, but he has still had some luck,
1:10:42
Speaker 2: and I think that's yeah, at the end of the day,
1:10:44
Speaker 2: That's what I come back to is you know, he's
1:10:47
Speaker 2: hit better. Don't get me wrong, He's he's hit better.
1:10:49
Speaker 2: He struck out less, he's walked less, which is concerning
1:10:52
Speaker 2: his babe is up about fifty points in the in
1:10:55
Speaker 2: the second half here. But really where it's it's coming
1:10:58
Speaker 2: down to it is his home run for fly ball rate,
1:11:02
Speaker 2: like more than doubled in the second half. He's he's
1:11:06
Speaker 2: getting twenty seven percent of his fly balls in the
1:11:10
Speaker 2: second half have gone for home runs. Was eleven percent
1:11:14
Speaker 2: in the first half. And he's you know, it's probably
1:11:17
Speaker 2: truth is somewhere between. But he's kind of gotten a
1:11:20
Speaker 2: little lucky on the baby Bip got lucky in the
1:11:22
Speaker 2: home run for fly Ball, and he's had you know,
1:11:26
Speaker 2: hard hitting careerates some luck. I get it. So if
1:11:30
Speaker 2: the average comes down a little bit, the homers go
1:11:32
Speaker 2: down a little bit, then he loses the spot in
1:11:34
Speaker 2: the lineup. Like it's not hard to see this like
1:11:36
Speaker 2: reverting back. So I treat this more like a hot streak.
1:11:39
Speaker 2: We've been here before with you, you know, Suarez, Like
1:11:43
Speaker 2: I don't mind him as a corner infielder. I just
1:11:46
Speaker 2: I also feel like if he hits two hundred with
1:11:48
Speaker 2: fifteen homers next year or thirty homers next year, I'm
1:11:52
Speaker 2: also not surprised by that as well. Like the variable
1:11:55
Speaker 2: outcomes here for sUAS are quite large, and that's really
1:11:59
Speaker 2: hard to lie because I think he's gonna get helium
1:12:03
Speaker 2: next next spring, because they're going to look at the
1:12:04
Speaker 2: overall stout line and go man news change the scenery.
1:12:07
Speaker 2: Things worked out. He's on the upswing. Let's invest and
1:12:11
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna I'm gonna kind of cool the jets
1:12:14
Speaker 2: there else were just a little bit, but he's the
1:12:17
Speaker 2: least crept back in the conversation for me.
1:12:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you said everything I would have said
1:12:24
Speaker 1: about him, like, yeah, I think he's a great ci
1:12:27
Speaker 1: kind of last third base option, but I wouldn't be
1:12:30
Speaker 1: looking to invest more. He's going to be turning thirty four,
1:12:34
Speaker 1: and he's just a streaky guy that like I think
1:12:36
Speaker 1: there is a little bit of comfort coming in and
1:12:39
Speaker 1: Arizona is a great place to hit, great lineup, and
1:12:42
Speaker 1: there's a little bit of that factor. But this is
1:12:45
Speaker 1: the type of profile that can fall apart pretty quickly,
1:12:48
Speaker 1: just given kind of what we've seen from Aohannio Suarez
1:12:51
Speaker 1: over the years and just what the overall skill set is.
1:12:56
Speaker 1: So certainly somebody who I don't mind rostering, but I
1:13:00
Speaker 1: don't want to be depending on him.
1:13:02
Speaker 2: Yep, you're you're right, I agree with you, gotcha.
1:13:06
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, next player we have is this is what
1:13:10
Speaker 1: I've was really alluding to in terms of like when
1:13:13
Speaker 1: you're kind of looking at overall stats and overall values,
1:13:18
Speaker 1: he's not going to pop out very well because he's
1:13:20
Speaker 1: actually negative ten bucks right now in our overall year
1:13:23
Speaker 1: to date, like player Raider obviously, because it's he was
1:13:29
Speaker 1: terrible out the gate, you know, in terms of his
1:13:31
Speaker 1: premiere or his debut. During the season, Matt Wallner put
1:13:36
Speaker 1: up in March April like he made the roster hit
1:13:43
Speaker 1: eighty with seventeen k's over thirty three played appearances. That
1:13:48
Speaker 1: wasn't going to cut it, and he got shipped down
1:13:50
Speaker 1: to Triple A. Since he's come back, he's been really,
1:13:54
Speaker 1: really great. The second half has been fantastic for him.
1:13:57
Speaker 1: He's had ten homers to go with also three stone.
1:14:00
Speaker 1: He like is been sneaking in stolen bases here. I'm
1:14:03
Speaker 1: not going to look at a savant page that you
1:14:04
Speaker 1: can quiz me on what his speed is. I'll give
1:14:07
Speaker 1: you that one because I'm I'm fascinated. But it's been
1:14:10
Speaker 1: a fantastic second half. He's hit two sixty one, three
1:14:13
Speaker 1: sixty five, five fifty six. That's a one sixty WRC
1:14:17
Speaker 1: plus done that over forty nine games during the second half.
1:14:22
Speaker 1: As he's become just a line up regular in Minnesota,
1:14:27
Speaker 1: which has been hard to come by I think for them,
1:14:29
Speaker 1: which is part of the reason why they've been rioting
1:14:32
Speaker 1: Waalner so hard. And I love Wallner that like this,
1:14:37
Speaker 1: I think is a fantastic profile where it's Joey Vado
1:14:43
Speaker 1: right now, but like it's gonna fall off a cliff
1:14:46
Speaker 1: wins the kind of like skills the road just a
1:14:49
Speaker 1: little bit in terms of like what we've seen with
1:14:52
Speaker 1: uh wait, I said Vodo, I meant Gallo, Jillie Gallo.
1:14:57
Speaker 2: I feel better for your assessment there. But I was
1:14:59
Speaker 2: thinking to go there. I was trying to I was
1:15:00
Speaker 2: looking at the stats for.
1:15:01
Speaker 3: Like, I'm not seeing Bado, yeah, but but Gallo, And
1:15:05
Speaker 3: I think this is a guy who if you want
1:15:07
Speaker 3: to take a sneaky pick for forty home run hitter
1:15:11
Speaker 3: going into next year, I think Walner would be my pick.
1:15:14
Speaker 2: Yeah. I only a few things to add here. Like
1:15:18
Speaker 2: he from his his career in the in the minors,
1:15:20
Speaker 2: he hit quite a few ground balls, and he's kind
1:15:24
Speaker 2: of reversed that this year, and especially in the second half.
1:15:28
Speaker 2: He's just been putting the ball in the air a
1:15:29
Speaker 2: lot more, which that's turned into two good things for him.
1:15:33
Speaker 2: He also had an egregious strikeout rate in that first half.
1:15:36
Speaker 2: I think it was in the forties and so why
1:15:40
Speaker 2: they actually that's why they sent them down. I'm sure
1:15:43
Speaker 2: that's not how you want to how you want to
1:15:45
Speaker 2: approach the game is a forty five percent strike out rate,
1:15:48
Speaker 2: and it's down to thirty four percent, also not really
1:15:51
Speaker 2: something that's sustainable. But he's just he's hit the ball
1:15:55
Speaker 2: very well, He's made great contact, and he's he's kind
1:16:00
Speaker 2: of cashed in. He's not gonna probably steal all the bases.
1:16:03
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm gonna put you on the spot now.
1:16:06
Speaker 2: I'm gonna push you in the spot with two things
1:16:08
Speaker 2: here because I like to really test you. So first
1:16:11
Speaker 2: of all, what's your your guess on his speed percentile
1:16:17
Speaker 2: in the league here, I'm.
1:16:20
Speaker 1: Actually getting guess it's pretty low. I think it's probably
1:16:22
Speaker 1: like thirty three percent fifty.
1:16:27
Speaker 2: We are right there with pretty good Lawrence Butler, Watt Waller.
1:16:31
Speaker 2: They're the same guys like.
1:16:33
Speaker 1: Just I mean, they're close to the same height. Butler
1:16:36
Speaker 1: is so much bigger than you would actually ever think.
1:16:40
Speaker 1: But yeah, wow, Matt Wallner hustling out there.
1:16:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, hustle, hustling out there. And then the other thing
1:16:46
Speaker 2: that I kind of want to to call out is
1:16:51
Speaker 2: what's Matt Walner's arm strength. I mean, I'm putting you
1:16:55
Speaker 2: all on the spot here because we're gonna talk fielding
1:16:57
Speaker 2: for just just a second, because you like guys that
1:17:01
Speaker 2: stay in the field.
1:17:03
Speaker 1: I also like, yeah, cool power bats, But that that's
1:17:09
Speaker 1: a good question. I know he's a terrible defender, but
1:17:13
Speaker 1: I'm guessing he's probably got like a great arm, maybe
1:17:16
Speaker 1: like eighty fifth percentile something crazy.
1:17:18
Speaker 2: Ninety ninth percentile. Wow, he's got negative three on the
1:17:24
Speaker 2: range and he's got his average arm strings is a
1:17:28
Speaker 2: ninety seven mile hour basketball from the outfield. He can't move,
1:17:31
Speaker 2: but when he gets it, he'll throw you out. So
1:17:35
Speaker 2: it's it's it's well, he might actually you. I don't
1:17:37
Speaker 2: think you know where it's going to be honest, but
1:17:41
Speaker 2: Matt Water is quite an interesting dude to your point.
1:17:44
Speaker 2: Like the Elevado comp is wrong, the Gallow comp I
1:17:48
Speaker 2: think is right there with it because he he doesn't
1:17:52
Speaker 2: he doesn't know what he's doing at the plate from
1:17:54
Speaker 2: a control perspective, but man, he hits the ball really
1:17:57
Speaker 2: really well. And so I think this is gonna be
1:17:59
Speaker 2: a great sneaky pick next year. And it's not too
1:18:02
Speaker 2: far off, like I'm going out on the limb here,
1:18:05
Speaker 2: it's not too far off from a little bit that
1:18:06
Speaker 2: profile Rooker, which is like really really solid contact if
1:18:11
Speaker 2: you can figure out the strikeouts, Like that's that's kind
1:18:13
Speaker 2: of what it is. Like, if you can figure out
1:18:15
Speaker 2: those strikeouts and kind of rain them in, then the
1:18:17
Speaker 2: sky's the limit for you. And that's kind of who
1:18:20
Speaker 2: Rooker was when we first came up, like can he
1:18:22
Speaker 2: figure the strikeouts out? And then he did. I'm not
1:18:24
Speaker 2: saying Walner's going to I don't know that he's shown
1:18:26
Speaker 2: the capability to, but it's not too hard to squint
1:18:30
Speaker 2: and look at that being a true possibility for a
1:18:33
Speaker 2: guy like Walner. So I really like Walner kind of,
1:18:38
Speaker 2: like you said, going this next year. And if you
1:18:41
Speaker 2: get bored, go look at Brent Rooker's Savant page for
1:18:45
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three and compare it to Walner's for twenty
1:18:49
Speaker 2: twenty four. You're gonna be shocked at how close those
1:18:53
Speaker 2: really are.
1:18:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think with Walner too, like it's I think,
1:18:59
Speaker 1: if any, the risk is lower than it was with
1:19:02
Speaker 1: gallow because the strikeout rate is better. You obviously don't
1:19:06
Speaker 1: have the shift anymore, so that's gonna help a few
1:19:08
Speaker 1: more balls to get through. He also is like he's
1:19:12
Speaker 1: had more of a ground ball profile, like you said,
1:19:14
Speaker 1: also has produced line drive rates that were higher than
1:19:18
Speaker 1: Gallows ever were, that Gallo had a tendency to like
1:19:22
Speaker 1: just pop too many out in terms of like deep
1:19:25
Speaker 1: fly balls, that Walner does seem to square the ball
1:19:28
Speaker 1: up better than Gallo ever did, so certainly, Yeah, I
1:19:32
Speaker 1: totally agree that, like you are looking at somebody who
1:19:34
Speaker 1: could kind of morph into that next sprint Rooker. And
1:19:38
Speaker 1: also kind of funny just because Rooker came up through
1:19:40
Speaker 1: the twin system and then bounced around from there.
1:19:44
Speaker 2: It's uncanny. The comparisons are uncanny. So we'll be buying Walner.
1:19:49
Speaker 2: I think you said the first round next year is
1:19:51
Speaker 2: what you said about Rooker, so I'm holding into it. Yeah,
1:19:54
Speaker 2: Rooker in the first, Wallner in second. Okay, well we're
1:20:00
Speaker 2: going to get to our first pitcher.
1:20:01
Speaker 1: And uh, I'll be totally honest, this one stuck up
1:20:04
Speaker 1: on me because I don't own him anywhere and haven't
1:20:08
Speaker 1: run into him anywhere in my head to head playoffs,
1:20:10
Speaker 1: so it kind of hadn't kept tabs on from Berveldez
1:20:13
Speaker 1: in a while. And wow, the second half has been
1:20:17
Speaker 1: something special because he opened the season with I mean,
1:20:21
Speaker 1: it was fine, like especially given where you took him
1:20:24
Speaker 1: and you wanted the innings out from Bervaldez, but it
1:20:27
Speaker 1: was a three I am reading the fip in, not
1:20:31
Speaker 1: the ra. I will fix that. It was a three
1:20:35
Speaker 1: sixty six era over ninety eight and one thirds innings
1:20:39
Speaker 1: with a k rate that came in a little lower
1:20:44
Speaker 1: than you would have liked because it was seven and
1:20:45
Speaker 1: a half second half. He's up that k rate to
1:20:48
Speaker 1: ten point six per nine and has really been cy
1:20:53
Speaker 1: young like with a one semi nine era over sixty five,
1:20:56
Speaker 1: and the third's been pretty much untouchable. Like I said,
1:21:01
Speaker 1: that really snuck up on me that I hadn't been
1:21:03
Speaker 1: paying too much attention to from pro Valdez. You obviously
1:21:06
Speaker 1: had because you put him on the list for us.
1:21:08
Speaker 1: Is this driven by a change in his profile or
1:21:12
Speaker 1: what have you seen from him overall that has really
1:21:15
Speaker 1: kind of like caused this turnaround because he was struggling
1:21:20
Speaker 1: in twenty three as well compared to what he's been
1:21:22
Speaker 1: doing here in the second half of twenty four.
1:21:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's I hate to say it, but
1:21:28
Speaker 2: I think a lot of it is luck based. But
1:21:32
Speaker 2: you know, the only real kind of skilled things you see,
1:21:36
Speaker 2: and I have to dig through his his pitch types.
1:21:40
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure that there's a whole lot that
1:21:41
Speaker 2: that's changed there unless you've seen something I haven't, But
1:21:45
Speaker 2: you know, he in the second half, he's running out
1:21:49
Speaker 2: there with a baby one hundred points lower than the
1:21:51
Speaker 2: first half. The baby fit he's experienced is a two
1:21:54
Speaker 2: h five and his walk rates about the same, but
1:21:59
Speaker 2: his strikeouts of ten up, and so I think that
1:22:01
Speaker 2: that that's played to kind of really help him with
1:22:04
Speaker 2: that spread. At the same time, he's also gotten quite
1:22:09
Speaker 2: lucky in the home run department. Things are not going
1:22:13
Speaker 2: out there, and that really helps when you're a really
1:22:15
Speaker 2: true ground ball pitcher. Because he's a six like first
1:22:18
Speaker 2: half sixty percent, second half sixty percent ground ball guy.
1:22:21
Speaker 2: So he's gotten quite his fair share of luck. And
1:22:24
Speaker 2: so I'm really torn with Framer v Valdez here because
1:22:28
Speaker 2: I think he's maybe improved a little bit. Maybe there's
1:22:32
Speaker 2: a slight mix change. I don't know that it's significant
1:22:34
Speaker 2: enough to really drive anything here, but I think what
1:22:39
Speaker 2: the problem is is he's looked pretty gushedro on good
1:22:42
Speaker 2: each of the last few years, and then all of
1:22:44
Speaker 2: a sudden, it looks like he's written he's just kind
1:22:46
Speaker 2: of finally found it. And so if you're not gonna
1:22:48
Speaker 2: look under the covers. I think his draft day price
1:22:51
Speaker 2: is going to jump higher than this actually should, even
1:22:54
Speaker 2: though he is a good pitcher. So I'm I'm very
1:22:58
Speaker 2: kind of mixed emotions on Valadez because your point stuck
1:23:00
Speaker 2: up on you. It looks good overall. I think he's
1:23:03
Speaker 2: still a really good pitcher, but I think his line
1:23:07
Speaker 2: is probably exceeding in the second half his actual capability,
1:23:10
Speaker 2: and it made his overall season look just good enough
1:23:13
Speaker 2: to be like, Yeah, Rayverer Valdez is there. Rayverer Valdis
1:23:16
Speaker 2: is back, and I don't think it's fully there. I
1:23:20
Speaker 2: still like him. I still think he's intriguing, but he's
1:23:23
Speaker 2: more of the the top thirty range for me, top
1:23:25
Speaker 2: thirty five than what I think you could argue of
1:23:29
Speaker 2: the top twenty, top twenty pitcher. So I don't know,
1:23:32
Speaker 2: what have you seen in Valdez? Did I miss anything there?
1:23:35
Speaker 2: Are you seeing a skill change that I'm not catch up?
1:23:38
Speaker 1: I don't think I am. Like you can see a
1:23:40
Speaker 1: little bit in his game log, like actually, this is
1:23:42
Speaker 1: where it's really nice to have that stuff plus game
1:23:44
Speaker 1: log that we discussed last week, because there's no significant
1:23:47
Speaker 1: changes there when you get into his battered ball game log,
1:23:52
Speaker 1: the soft contact has been like increasing over the past
1:23:56
Speaker 1: couple months. But I think a lot of this hot
1:23:58
Speaker 1: run is the schedule. His second half has it opened
1:24:03
Speaker 1: with La, but then it's gone Pittsburgh, depleted Rangers, depleted Rays,
1:24:09
Speaker 1: White Sox, the ice cold Orioles, Royals at home, Arizona
1:24:15
Speaker 1: that was a tough one, and then Oakland. So there
1:24:18
Speaker 1: is I think a factor of like it's just been
1:24:21
Speaker 1: a nice clustering of his schedule. And maybe this is
1:24:24
Speaker 1: also why, like I hadn't quite updated like my priors
1:24:27
Speaker 1: on him, because even what you were saying, like as
1:24:29
Speaker 1: a top thirty thirty five pitcher, that's where kind of
1:24:32
Speaker 1: I had framed Bervaldez coming into the season. And I
1:24:35
Speaker 1: think when it's all said and done, the ultimate stat
1:24:39
Speaker 1: line's probably gonna settle. It's gonna be a little bit
1:24:42
Speaker 1: lower than where he did last year. But I mean,
1:24:45
Speaker 1: the caves have been worse, the winds have been good
1:24:48
Speaker 1: because he plays with astros, but that is part of
1:24:50
Speaker 1: like his value. I think he's pretty much the same picture,
1:24:54
Speaker 1: and so like there are probably gonna be people who
1:24:56
Speaker 1: are championing him because he they'll see that second half,
1:25:00
Speaker 1: and this is obviously one of those players that can
1:25:03
Speaker 1: really have his value skewed by the playoff runs. So
1:25:08
Speaker 1: I think I've probably am pegging from Bravaldez for just
1:25:12
Speaker 1: about what I had coming into season, which is, you know,
1:25:15
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty one hundred and ninety innings too
1:25:17
Speaker 1: of like a nine K nine, a mid three, mid
1:25:21
Speaker 1: to upper threes RA and good wins. So yeah, I
1:25:25
Speaker 1: think you're looking at somebody who can continue being like
1:25:28
Speaker 1: a top thirty ish pitcher going forward. And if if
1:25:32
Speaker 1: that's what you expect out of him, I think that's
1:25:34
Speaker 1: a good spot to put him on your team. And
1:25:38
Speaker 1: I don't just he's never going to be moving up
1:25:40
Speaker 1: into that number one pitcher status for me.
1:25:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I will say I was looking closer at
1:25:45
Speaker 2: the at the game logs, and he has increased his
1:25:47
Speaker 2: curveball usage about ten percent over that time train ten
1:25:51
Speaker 2: points and the curveball's actually gotten a little bit better.
1:25:55
Speaker 2: So I'm thinking that as I look at the story,
1:25:57
Speaker 2: I was trying figure out where strikeous were coming from,
1:25:59
Speaker 2: and I feel like that might be where it's coming from. Schedule,
1:26:05
Speaker 2: I think is a fair assessment, but the rest of
1:26:09
Speaker 2: the profiles the same, and so okay, he's not no
1:26:12
Speaker 2: longer top thirty, he's a top twenty nine. Like for me,
1:26:16
Speaker 2: I bumped him up like one spot. There's a little
1:26:18
Speaker 2: something going on in the skill change there. But yeah,
1:26:22
Speaker 2: when you when you're running out against that group of teams,
1:26:25
Speaker 2: I'm not really too too concerned.
1:26:29
Speaker 1: Yes, okay, Well, we're gonna stick in Houston with our
1:26:31
Speaker 1: next pitcher. And it is my boy, you say Kikuchi
1:26:34
Speaker 1: in terms of actually, I think we discussed him on
1:26:37
Speaker 1: like this type of podcast last year in terms of
1:26:40
Speaker 1: mid season breakouts or late season breakouts because he was
1:26:44
Speaker 1: tore it down the stretch for the Blue Jays and
1:26:46
Speaker 1: twenty three when he found just a new pitch mix
1:26:50
Speaker 1: and arsenal that introduced the curveball. And it looks like
1:26:54
Speaker 1: he's even taking it to another level because in Toronto
1:26:58
Speaker 1: to begin the season, I'm gonna use that as the
1:27:00
Speaker 1: first half second half splits because I think that's probably
1:27:03
Speaker 1: more important to our discussion going off going forward with
1:27:08
Speaker 1: Kokuchi because he is going to be a free agent
1:27:12
Speaker 1: here in the off season. But Houston has obviously made
1:27:15
Speaker 1: some tweaks to his overall game where he was at
1:27:19
Speaker 1: a four to seventy five ERA over one hundred and
1:27:21
Speaker 1: fifteen and two thirds innings with Toronto. After coming over
1:27:25
Speaker 1: to Houston, he has produced a three to nineteen RA
1:27:29
Speaker 1: over forty eight innings. And you've also seen an increase
1:27:33
Speaker 1: in the strikeouts per nine, so a full tick from
1:27:37
Speaker 1: ten point one with the Toronto Blue Jays to eleven
1:27:41
Speaker 1: point one with the Houston Astros. And you're the one
1:27:45
Speaker 1: that put him on this list. So I'm I'm just
1:27:47
Speaker 1: like getting ready here to sit my tea and hear
1:27:50
Speaker 1: you talk about all the great things of my boy.
1:27:53
Speaker 1: You say Kakuchi, who you have denegrated in the past,
1:27:56
Speaker 1: And I mean, I guess maybe you could just like
1:27:59
Speaker 1: throw him under the bus like any of these changes,
1:28:01
Speaker 1: but I think maybe you're you might be encouraged by
1:28:04
Speaker 1: this change in Houston.
1:28:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, it hurts me. It hurts something to admit that
1:28:09
Speaker 2: you might be right and you know Kkuchi like it was.
1:28:15
Speaker 2: It's one of those it's it's almost like so gosh
1:28:18
Speaker 2: darn obvious of the changes that he made, Like they
1:28:21
Speaker 2: are very very apparent in his his his profile, and
1:28:26
Speaker 2: so if you look at his first half, I'm with
1:28:30
Speaker 2: you here Toronto, his slide, his fastball usage was about
1:28:36
Speaker 2: forty nine percent, dropped out five points and when it
1:28:38
Speaker 2: came over to Houston's so not not not something that
1:28:40
Speaker 2: I'm going to really write home about. His slider usage
1:28:44
Speaker 2: in the with Toronto is seventeen percent. It is thirty
1:28:48
Speaker 2: eight percent with Houston, and he's traded that directly off
1:28:52
Speaker 2: with his his cutter and its changed statement on the
1:28:55
Speaker 2: same So he's like literally just flipped and just lean
1:29:00
Speaker 2: one into that slider and that seems to be making
1:29:04
Speaker 2: all the difference for Kokuchi. And so that's where I'm
1:29:09
Speaker 2: I'm letting you take the victory lap on this one.
1:29:11
Speaker 2: Could you called this like we talked about his trade deadline.
1:29:14
Speaker 2: I remember you talking about like being Houston's gonna make
1:29:16
Speaker 2: an adjustment for him, and it's gonna be what it takes.
1:29:18
Speaker 2: The only breaks I'm gonna pump on Kokuchi. I feel
1:29:21
Speaker 2: like we've done this before. Like I feel like Kokuchi
1:29:25
Speaker 2: like when he twitches teams, it's like, well, they tell
1:29:27
Speaker 2: me to do this and he just does that. Like
1:29:29
Speaker 2: I you know, there's other pictures like I go back
1:29:31
Speaker 2: with like a Charlie Morton when he he came over
1:29:34
Speaker 2: to Houston and then he left and he maintained what
1:29:37
Speaker 2: he did, and I feel I feel like that's happened
1:29:39
Speaker 2: with some other other pictures that have kind of gone
1:29:41
Speaker 2: through uh different teams and they picked up a new
1:29:45
Speaker 2: skill and they said, yes, this continues work for me.
1:29:47
Speaker 2: Let me keep doing that, you know. And I think
1:29:51
Speaker 2: that's a really kind of key element for me. That's
1:29:54
Speaker 2: still like I've just lingering, why does this feel like
1:29:57
Speaker 2: this keeps happening with Kukuchi? So I see this real
1:30:00
Speaker 2: skill change. I believe in the skill change. We know
1:30:02
Speaker 2: it's possible. Can you talk me off the ledge of
1:30:05
Speaker 2: the inability for him to stick with the game plan
1:30:09
Speaker 2: that he knows works, but the teams tell him to
1:30:11
Speaker 2: do something different.
1:30:14
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's necessarily that. I think it's
1:30:16
Speaker 1: more so that, like as he's come through the major
1:30:21
Speaker 1: leagues in Seattle, I'm actually not totally sure Seattle's got
1:30:25
Speaker 1: like great pitching development. I think they just know how
1:30:27
Speaker 1: to find good pitchers and have a great park. So
1:30:31
Speaker 1: I think Kakuchi has been somebody who has needed molding
1:30:34
Speaker 1: over the years, and Toronto's been okay. But I think
1:30:37
Speaker 1: you can see that there is some sort of like
1:30:40
Speaker 1: breakdown between I think that's a pretty good front office,
1:30:43
Speaker 1: and like the coaching staff maybe can't interpret it as
1:30:46
Speaker 1: well to be able to implement some of the changes.
1:30:48
Speaker 1: They did some of it with Kokuchi, but I think
1:30:53
Speaker 1: he's always had a great arsenal and everywhere that he
1:30:56
Speaker 1: goes and lands, especially if they've got a sharp analytics
1:31:00
Speaker 1: staff or just a sharp approach to pitching. I mean,
1:31:03
Speaker 1: Houston was a great spot for that, So they just
1:31:07
Speaker 1: found another kind of extra level out of him. So
1:31:10
Speaker 1: I do think a lot of this is going to
1:31:12
Speaker 1: boil down to where he ends up signing in the
1:31:15
Speaker 1: off season, that it's going to dictate how I view
1:31:17
Speaker 1: him going forward. But I think he can maintain these
1:31:20
Speaker 1: gains that he's found in Houston, because we already saw
1:31:24
Speaker 1: like a lot of what he had been doing last
1:31:27
Speaker 1: year in Toronto carried over, so like it wasn't terrible
1:31:30
Speaker 1: in Toronto, it wasn't great, but it was like certainly
1:31:34
Speaker 1: useful for where you're drafting him. That like if he
1:31:36
Speaker 1: goes if he stays in Houston, if he goes somewhere else,
1:31:41
Speaker 1: that would be just be great for pictures in terms
1:31:43
Speaker 1: of honestly even if he went to like Baltimore to
1:31:47
Speaker 1: be able to pitch in that home park, that'd be great.
1:31:50
Speaker 1: But like Tampa and La are obviously up there in
1:31:53
Speaker 1: terms of like the best. But I think he's going
1:31:56
Speaker 1: to be a legitimate starting pitcher even more so going
1:31:59
Speaker 1: forward that like, he's just a great pitcher. And you're
1:32:04
Speaker 1: never going to get me to not wax poetic poetic
1:32:07
Speaker 1: about him or hype him up. So it's gonna be
1:32:10
Speaker 1: tough for me to ever find a flaw on him.
1:32:12
Speaker 1: I will readily admit that.
1:32:14
Speaker 2: We've been on this tray before and it's just gonna
1:32:17
Speaker 2: keep going round.
1:32:18
Speaker 1: Yes, Okay, well we're going to return back to some
1:32:21
Speaker 1: hitters and a couple of young ones here we got.
1:32:24
Speaker 1: The first one is Pete crow Armstrong, center fielder for
1:32:27
Speaker 1: the Chicago Cubs, who is twenty two and in late
1:32:32
Speaker 1: July he made a change to his batting stance and
1:32:34
Speaker 1: approach where not only did he shift his hands, but
1:32:36
Speaker 1: he added a leg kick and wow, it has made
1:32:39
Speaker 1: a fantastic difference in his overall game as in the
1:32:43
Speaker 1: first half, you know, he was up and down a
1:32:45
Speaker 1: little bit, especially given that they didn't have a full
1:32:47
Speaker 1: time role for him, So there was that factor. But
1:32:50
Speaker 1: in the first half he hit two oh three, two
1:32:52
Speaker 1: fifty three, three twenty nine. That's a sixty four WRC
1:32:56
Speaker 1: plus and that came in fifty seven games. In fifty
1:32:59
Speaker 1: two games, I should also say that was one hundred
1:33:02
Speaker 1: and fifty eight at bats one hundred and seventy seven
1:33:04
Speaker 1: at bats here in the second half, so he's already
1:33:06
Speaker 1: over that in fifty two games. It has been a
1:33:11
Speaker 1: true breakout. He's been slashing two seventy seven, three twenty six,
1:33:15
Speaker 1: four seventy five, a pretty reasonable three twenty six babu
1:33:18
Speaker 1: considering his speed, that's a one twenty one WRC plus.
1:33:23
Speaker 1: And what I've been loving here is the power has
1:33:25
Speaker 1: been coming through for Pete crow Armstrong. He's popped seven
1:33:28
Speaker 1: homers here in the second half. All that, everything I'm
1:33:33
Speaker 1: saying is glowing because like, I'm feeling pretty good about
1:33:37
Speaker 1: the changes that we've seen in Pete crow Armstrong. That
1:33:39
Speaker 1: you want to also talk about a player who you know,
1:33:43
Speaker 1: we've come back to this a couple of times in
1:33:44
Speaker 1: terms of like Dalton Varshow and it's come up on
1:33:47
Speaker 1: other pods that when you have a great glove and
1:33:50
Speaker 1: stick every day and just kind of get the rhythm
1:33:53
Speaker 1: of baseball and are especially where peak Crow mart Pro
1:33:58
Speaker 1: Armstrong is in terms of first round talent twenty two
1:34:00
Speaker 1: years old. This is the makings I think of somebody
1:34:04
Speaker 1: who can really turn into like a Corbyn Carroll like
1:34:08
Speaker 1: player going forward that I think, is that too far?
1:34:13
Speaker 1: Or is this like if you gave Pete Crow Armstrong
1:34:17
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty games with this approach. I mean,
1:34:20
Speaker 1: I do think that he would be pushing something like
1:34:22
Speaker 1: twenty forty.
1:34:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, the comp I'm gonna go with it, and I
1:34:26
Speaker 2: think Corbin might be pushing it this year. Corbyn may
1:34:30
Speaker 2: be fine this year, Corbrain maybe not. The comp I'm
1:34:33
Speaker 2: going is greedy, size more and I'm going back away
1:34:35
Speaker 2: on that comp like as far as far as the
1:34:38
Speaker 2: talent level and just the pure athleticism. Now, let's not
1:34:42
Speaker 2: use the injury history by any means to finish that
1:34:46
Speaker 2: comparison of But I'm kind of with you, like I'm
1:34:49
Speaker 2: looking at this and it just feels like growth, Like
1:34:52
Speaker 2: it just feels like a guy figuring it out, making adjustments,
1:34:55
Speaker 2: and like I can't find a problem and that's good news.
1:35:01
Speaker 2: And what I like is, you know, you look at
1:35:04
Speaker 2: the fact that he made an actual played approach change.
1:35:06
Speaker 2: I look at the fact that how he's actually hitting
1:35:09
Speaker 2: the ball is you know, he's he's spraying all over
1:35:13
Speaker 2: the field, which is the kind of hitter he should be.
1:35:15
Speaker 2: And so I think that the home run peak is
1:35:19
Speaker 2: kind of what he says that about that twenty I
1:35:20
Speaker 2: think he will run more. He's got an amazing glove.
1:35:23
Speaker 2: So I think Pete Crow is gonna shock some people
1:35:26
Speaker 2: next year and he's gonna be a very, very valuable player.
1:35:29
Speaker 2: He's you know, it seems like every year we have
1:35:31
Speaker 2: these guys that go twenty twenty and it's like, well,
1:35:32
Speaker 2: I didn't see that coming. And it's kind of a
1:35:35
Speaker 2: volume comparison, a right scenario and a little bit of luck,
1:35:39
Speaker 2: and I think that's kind of what Pete Crow Armstrong
1:35:42
Speaker 2: can be for you. But if he goes fifteen fifteen,
1:35:45
Speaker 2: like you're not disappointed, I think, you know, going back
1:35:48
Speaker 2: to our intro and talking about guys got hurt, you know,
1:35:51
Speaker 2: Stephen Kwan is going to get drafted well before Pete
1:35:54
Speaker 2: Crow Armstrong next year. And I would rather have PCA, Like,
1:35:58
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any doubt about it for me.
1:36:00
Speaker 2: Because there's considerable upside there with with the profile and yeah,
1:36:06
Speaker 2: he's just he's turned into a pro hitter.
1:36:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think if we did twenty twenty
1:36:11
Speaker 1: five draft now Kwan would go in front PCA. But
1:36:14
Speaker 1: PCAA is also this is the type of guy who
1:36:16
Speaker 1: can rise fast over the winter once other people kind
1:36:18
Speaker 1: of tune in. Because once you do start digging into
1:36:22
Speaker 1: the performance here in the second half, you see the
1:36:24
Speaker 1: visible change. He's already up to ten homers and twenty
1:36:27
Speaker 1: seven stone bases, which has actually only been like a
1:36:31
Speaker 1: zero dollar player on our Player Raider, just because the
1:36:34
Speaker 1: runs and RBIs have been so low that like, I
1:36:40
Speaker 1: think people will start adding some helium to him. But
1:36:43
Speaker 1: I mean I think I would be willing to absorb
1:36:46
Speaker 1: some of it. So this is certainly somebody if you're
1:36:48
Speaker 1: in dynasty keeper situations, I would be giving up a
1:36:53
Speaker 1: little extra to be able to bring them in. You know,
1:36:54
Speaker 1: maybe before people really start diving into the analysis on
1:36:58
Speaker 1: players from twenty twenty four and getting into their twenty
1:37:01
Speaker 1: five draft prep, because I do think that the deeper
1:37:04
Speaker 1: and deeper we go into the draft season, this guy
1:37:07
Speaker 1: is going to keep rising and rising up the boards
1:37:10
Speaker 1: that you know, it's a good combination of youth and
1:37:13
Speaker 1: skill that PCA is going to be. I think a
1:37:16
Speaker 1: target for lots of people.
1:37:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't disagree. I love the strategy of a
1:37:21
Speaker 2: guy like this making a big trade, making him a
1:37:23
Speaker 2: second piece. Like I think that's the way you kind
1:37:26
Speaker 2: of acquire a PCA is you make him look the
1:37:29
Speaker 2: other way and be like, I'm actually after that guy anyway.
1:37:32
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, the next hitter we have is somebody who
1:37:37
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's going to be too much
1:37:38
Speaker 1: helium in his name, but he's been fantastic in his
1:37:41
Speaker 1: playing time with the Miami Marlins. That has been Otto Lopez,
1:37:45
Speaker 1: who has been manning second base and shortstop and has
1:37:49
Speaker 1: rounded into an everyday player here in the second half
1:37:53
Speaker 1: and has been producing with the opportunity has been given.
1:37:56
Speaker 1: So in the first half he ended up slash seeing
1:38:01
Speaker 1: this is two fifty two, two seventy nine, three point
1:38:04
Speaker 1: fifty with a seventy two WRC plus. In the second half,
1:38:08
Speaker 1: it's been two sixty six three twenty three eighty four
1:38:12
Speaker 1: for a ninety five WRC plus. But there's also been
1:38:16
Speaker 1: growth at the plate in terms of he's been walking more.
1:38:20
Speaker 1: He's been that slugging his increase. So the strikeouts has
1:38:23
Speaker 1: been coming too, because I think he's starting to get
1:38:25
Speaker 1: use to the major league pitching and just kind of
1:38:27
Speaker 1: taking his opportunities when they come. He has swiped eleven
1:38:31
Speaker 1: bases in the in the second half as well, so
1:38:33
Speaker 1: that is I think the main calling card here for
1:38:35
Speaker 1: Auto Lopez going forward is that a cheap source of
1:38:39
Speaker 1: middle infield steals. And I'm certainly targeting him going into
1:38:43
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five given what I've seen out of him
1:38:46
Speaker 1: in his twenty five age twenty five season here in
1:38:50
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, because I just don't see how the
1:38:53
Speaker 1: Marlins don't let Auto Lopez break camp with a job
1:38:56
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. And if that's the case, I mean,
1:38:59
Speaker 1: I think you're looking as somebody who can be almost
1:39:02
Speaker 1: like I said it and forget it, like mid thirty
1:39:04
Speaker 1: stolen base guy who's not going to kill you on
1:39:06
Speaker 1: the batting average because he came through the miners with
1:39:10
Speaker 1: a great pedigree on that on that bat, you know,
1:39:14
Speaker 1: fifty five sixty per Fangrafts prospects, and so I think
1:39:19
Speaker 1: that the batting average can be pretty steady around like
1:39:22
Speaker 1: two seventy five to eighty and that's exactly the type
1:39:25
Speaker 1: of production I think you need out have been to
1:39:27
Speaker 1: middle endfield. Just don't let like the whole second half
1:39:31
Speaker 1: of his work kind of get lost in the whole
1:39:35
Speaker 1: line of twenty twenty four. So am I being I mean,
1:39:39
Speaker 1: I'm not being like super high on Auto Lopez? But
1:39:41
Speaker 1: what do you think of my assessment here? And what
1:39:45
Speaker 1: do you kind of think you're doing with Lopez going
1:39:48
Speaker 1: into drafts in twenty five?
1:39:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I I might not give as much
1:39:51
Speaker 2: healing as as you did there, but he's an intriguing guy.
1:39:54
Speaker 2: He makes me think of a Jose Cabierro from last year,
1:39:58
Speaker 2: uh with with the Mariners and then came over to
1:40:00
Speaker 2: to Tampa this year and like it's that late round
1:40:04
Speaker 2: middle endfield dart for speed that you that it's not
1:40:09
Speaker 2: gonna hurt you that bad now. Cabiro his average is
1:40:12
Speaker 2: not not in the same ballgame as Lopez, but he
1:40:14
Speaker 2: also I think is gonna be a little bit better
1:40:17
Speaker 2: for the counting stats. Overall. The struggle I have with
1:40:21
Speaker 2: a guy like Lopez is he's just not gonna get
1:40:23
Speaker 2: the volume of those counting stats. The RBIs aren't gonna
1:40:27
Speaker 2: be what you need. Runs might not be what you need.
1:40:29
Speaker 2: He's not gonna get on base a ton. But if
1:40:33
Speaker 2: you're looking for that, you're late in drafts and you're like,
1:40:36
Speaker 2: I didn't get the speed I need. This is a
1:40:37
Speaker 2: great guy for that. Like it. He has a very
1:40:40
Speaker 2: very specific niche in the fantasy game. And that's what
1:40:44
Speaker 2: that's why I like because you're right, like he's he
1:40:46
Speaker 2: doesn't kill you anywhere. He has just enough power, he
1:40:49
Speaker 2: has just enough average. He can he can squeak by
1:40:52
Speaker 2: on the counting stats if you need to just look
1:40:54
Speaker 2: at it the way a little bit, and so that
1:40:56
Speaker 2: that's fun to see. And he actually has a commisserate
1:40:59
Speaker 2: a sprint speed with eighty six percentile. So like I
1:41:04
Speaker 2: do think, you know, you're you're right. This is the
1:41:06
Speaker 2: kind of guy that is really valuable in draft next year.
1:41:09
Speaker 2: Because he did it in the second half. It kind
1:41:11
Speaker 2: of gets, you know, stuck under the rug and you
1:41:14
Speaker 2: can just put him in your pocket and you get
1:41:16
Speaker 2: through the draft. If your team doesn't need him, you
1:41:18
Speaker 2: don't need him, but you know that he's there. You
1:41:21
Speaker 2: know that he's there, and if you need to grab
1:41:23
Speaker 2: him at the end, just to kind of even some
1:41:24
Speaker 2: things out. You're actually pretty happy with, uh, with that
1:41:28
Speaker 2: that outcome?
1:41:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean I think what I like too
1:41:31
Speaker 1: is great glove, GREATAA on baseball, savant like amongst the
1:41:36
Speaker 1: best at second base, and squares the ball up like
1:41:40
Speaker 1: he is a good hitter. So it is possible, you know,
1:41:42
Speaker 1: it's only been his first big league season that there's
1:41:45
Speaker 1: maybe a little extra pop in that bat. But I
1:41:48
Speaker 1: don't think anything ever beyond like fifteen homers. But wow,
1:41:51
Speaker 1: if you could get like fifteen and thirty five out
1:41:53
Speaker 1: of Auto Lopez for a one dollar middle infielder next year,
1:41:57
Speaker 1: that's a that's a boon.
1:41:59
Speaker 2: Hey ever know that feels like a sleeper post written
1:42:02
Speaker 2: all over it for next next spring?
1:42:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. Okay, Well, next player we have is a
1:42:07
Speaker 1: familiar name, and so this one, I think maybe is
1:42:10
Speaker 1: probably not going to go under the radar as much.
1:42:12
Speaker 1: So I wanted to open the discussion on what you're
1:42:15
Speaker 1: doing with them, actually, because it has been an incredible
1:42:19
Speaker 1: run for Boden Francis of the Toronto Blue Jays. We
1:42:23
Speaker 1: covered him the other week for our August Player of
1:42:26
Speaker 1: the Month PC and the second half has been like
1:42:29
Speaker 1: Kershaw like in terms of fifty four innings with a
1:42:33
Speaker 1: one to eighty three ERA after putting up thirty eight
1:42:37
Speaker 1: and two thirds with a five eighty two ARRA in
1:42:39
Speaker 1: the first half, and it's looked well deserved. He looks
1:42:44
Speaker 1: like an absolute ace on the mound that you can't
1:42:46
Speaker 1: ever like distinguish what's coming out of his hand between
1:42:49
Speaker 1: the fastball curveball, and he's got a devastating slider that
1:42:53
Speaker 1: it just disappears when batters are trying to approach it.
1:42:58
Speaker 1: He's twenty eight years old, so that's why the Blue
1:43:00
Speaker 1: Jays have just been kind of like letting them loose.
1:43:04
Speaker 1: And in the no hit bids that he's had, you know,
1:43:06
Speaker 1: he's been pushing one hundred and ten one hundred and
1:43:09
Speaker 1: fifteen pitches because he's twenty eight year old journeyman. We
1:43:14
Speaker 1: had like four baseball cards to select from him for
1:43:16
Speaker 1: the PC. What are you doing with Boden France's going
1:43:20
Speaker 1: into next year, because honestly, I have no clue, Like
1:43:24
Speaker 1: it's I don't know if he's like, is a true
1:43:27
Speaker 1: like top thirty pitcher or if this is just a
1:43:32
Speaker 1: run of incredible luck. So I'm oping you can help.
1:43:35
Speaker 2: Me I've got two words for you, Bryce Elder, and
1:43:41
Speaker 2: that's not a rein endorsement of Boden Francis. I say
1:43:46
Speaker 2: Bryce Elder because in twenty three Elder was like the
1:43:50
Speaker 2: sterling child. Like I was watching some like Atlanta broadcast
1:43:54
Speaker 2: and they were just speaking the praises of how many
1:43:56
Speaker 2: adjustments and the things he made. Then you go look
1:43:58
Speaker 2: under the covers and the guy's like running like a
1:44:00
Speaker 2: two hundred babe. He can't strike out save his life.
1:44:03
Speaker 2: Like it's like it literally just every possible thing has
1:44:06
Speaker 2: gone right for him. And I might be insulting Francis
1:44:11
Speaker 2: a little bit with that comp but like it's not
1:44:15
Speaker 2: not that far off, Like he's his baby. This year
1:44:21
Speaker 2: a paltry two seven. He's got a little bit of luck.
1:44:24
Speaker 2: His strikeouts is not even eight per nine. He from
1:44:28
Speaker 2: a walk perspective, he's been fantastic keeping under two. The
1:44:32
Speaker 2: velocity is only ninety three. He puts the ball in
1:44:36
Speaker 2: the air a lot. He's only a thirty four percent
1:44:39
Speaker 2: ground ball guy. And so I start to look at
1:44:42
Speaker 2: all these things and I'm sitting here going your calling
1:44:45
Speaker 2: card is control. That's about it. And so it's not
1:44:50
Speaker 2: gonna take much for a little bit of the correction
1:44:53
Speaker 2: from a regression perspective, back to the meme for the
1:44:56
Speaker 2: ball to start traveling. And I think you're not too
1:45:01
Speaker 2: thrilled at the end of the day with him. And
1:45:04
Speaker 2: I'm gonna I'm gonna say this because I did not
1:45:06
Speaker 2: look this up beforehand. If you look at his comps
1:45:11
Speaker 2: on velocity, movement, on on savant, have you looked at those?
1:45:14
Speaker 1: No, But I'm guessing they're not great because it's not
1:45:16
Speaker 1: a good fastball.
1:45:17
Speaker 2: It's all over the place. Because Max Scherzer's there, This
1:45:21
Speaker 2: year's Max Surger, not historical Max Scherzer. I'm madden again,
1:45:25
Speaker 2: not a whole lot of Hinton, my Ada Rice Elder
1:45:29
Speaker 2: owning this one. He's there and Ronel Blanco like it's
1:45:34
Speaker 2: just like the the who's who of what in the
1:45:36
Speaker 2: world are you doing? And so I'm I'm very scared
1:45:40
Speaker 2: of bouting Francis because I also think he's got a
1:45:42
Speaker 2: little cult following because of what he's done this year,
1:45:45
Speaker 2: and I think that's gonna carry him far and beyond
1:45:48
Speaker 2: what he's actually worth. And I'm I got vowed in
1:45:51
Speaker 2: Francis is like a top sixty pitcher, Like maybe sixty five,
1:45:56
Speaker 2: Like that's kind of where I'm pegging right now, and
1:45:58
Speaker 2: I will not have a share because of that.
1:46:01
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, No, I think that's fair because I think
1:46:03
Speaker 1: what I heard when you were describing all that is
1:46:05
Speaker 1: more of like a league average pitcher. So yep, I
1:46:08
Speaker 1: think if you walk into drafts expecting that. I think
1:46:11
Speaker 1: especially the big indicator here is the low strikeout rate
1:46:14
Speaker 1: that like he has been inducing pretty good like low
1:46:18
Speaker 1: contact or like weak contact. The defense in Toronto is
1:46:22
Speaker 1: pretty solid, especially like Dalton Varshow at the middle is
1:46:26
Speaker 1: obviously shagging a lot of those flag balls. Are was
1:46:29
Speaker 1: shagging a lot of those five balls for him, and
1:46:31
Speaker 1: so there's that factor too. But yeah, I think that
1:46:35
Speaker 1: it is like this is somebody where you're going to
1:46:38
Speaker 1: have to go in with a little bit of a
1:46:42
Speaker 1: sense of the entire profile because even in that the
1:46:45
Speaker 1: stuff plus game logs like he's been doing, I think
1:46:48
Speaker 1: what he's found is consistency in his control, Like you
1:46:51
Speaker 1: can see that come through immediately where the command plus
1:46:56
Speaker 1: on his stuff plus like game log was all over
1:46:59
Speaker 1: the place in the first half. And part of that too,
1:47:01
Speaker 1: is because he was relieving and starting and kind of
1:47:05
Speaker 1: being shuffled around the roster, but in the second half
1:47:09
Speaker 1: he's found a groove and it's probably like a bit
1:47:11
Speaker 1: of a mechanical groove too in terms of just being
1:47:15
Speaker 1: able to produce day and day out. So I think
1:47:19
Speaker 1: in the off season the league's going to catch up
1:47:21
Speaker 1: a lot to him too, in terms of his approach
1:47:23
Speaker 1: and the changes that he's been making. And on top
1:47:27
Speaker 1: of it too, the stuff is just not fantastic enough
1:47:31
Speaker 1: to be able to like cause any I think sustained
1:47:34
Speaker 1: success here. So I think if you have him, certainly
1:47:37
Speaker 1: use him down the stretch, but don't invest in him
1:47:39
Speaker 1: too heavily in keeper leagues and going into twenty twenty five, yep, absolutely, Okay, Well,
1:47:46
Speaker 1: one picture I think I am investing in because I
1:47:49
Speaker 1: love this profile and he was one of my sleepers
1:47:51
Speaker 1: coming into this season because he had a hot second
1:47:54
Speaker 1: half last year. It was pretty good in the first half,
1:47:57
Speaker 1: but the second half has been like Cy Young level
1:48:00
Speaker 1: out of our next guy, and that is Sean and
1:48:03
Speaker 1: Iyah from the New York Mets. As in the first
1:48:05
Speaker 1: half he was a three six forty six arra over
1:48:08
Speaker 1: ninety six and a third a three h one arra
1:48:11
Speaker 1: over seventy four and two thirds, which if you kind
1:48:15
Speaker 1: of think back to these other guys have been explaining
1:48:17
Speaker 1: from the pitching side, that's a lot of second half
1:48:20
Speaker 1: innings because he's been so great that the Mets can't
1:48:23
Speaker 1: take himount of games. He's been their best starting pitcher.
1:48:26
Speaker 1: The batting average has been low, and so as the
1:48:30
Speaker 1: overall babbit. But this is a case where, like Sean
1:48:34
Speaker 1: and I, when he's humming, it's like Chris Sale like
1:48:38
Speaker 1: out of that lefty slot. It's just really tough. I
1:48:41
Speaker 1: watched him against Washington this past week and it it's nasty,
1:48:46
Speaker 1: like when he can just finds a groove, and I
1:48:49
Speaker 1: think he has. He's going to be opting out for sure.
1:48:52
Speaker 1: Of this Mets deal, the he's got to be able
1:48:54
Speaker 1: to go in the open market. It is a great
1:48:56
Speaker 1: home park that he's had in New York. So I
1:49:00
Speaker 1: would I fully expect the Mets to bring him back
1:49:02
Speaker 1: because this is exactly the type of player that they need.
1:49:05
Speaker 1: Manaya is thirty two, turns thirty three in the off season,
1:49:10
Speaker 1: and I guess with all that said, like I said,
1:49:13
Speaker 1: I'm real huge into him. As the strikeout rate has
1:49:16
Speaker 1: also increased, it's gone up a little bit from eight
1:49:19
Speaker 1: point nine K nine to nine point seven here the
1:49:23
Speaker 1: walks have gone down, and this is part of it.
1:49:28
Speaker 1: It's like it's the ceiling thing for me for Manaia
1:49:31
Speaker 1: that it looks like he's found it and I'm going
1:49:33
Speaker 1: to keep riding it. Unlike the boat in Francis, there
1:49:36
Speaker 1: actually is skills in terms of like the arsenal and
1:49:40
Speaker 1: everything that he's got in his profile for me to
1:49:43
Speaker 1: really invest in him. And so I think I'm treating
1:49:46
Speaker 1: him kind of as like a top thirty to thirty
1:49:49
Speaker 1: five pitcher in like the from ber Valdez range for
1:49:52
Speaker 1: me going to next year. But talk me off the
1:49:55
Speaker 1: ledge maybe or are you right there with me?
1:49:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not. I'm up there. I mean I've definitely
1:50:01
Speaker 2: taken above boding Francis. And to your point, like the
1:50:05
Speaker 2: stat Lite looks fantastic for the the kind of the
1:50:08
Speaker 2: second second half here. And he's also a drive line baby.
1:50:14
Speaker 2: That's where he was at last last winter. And I
1:50:16
Speaker 2: absolutely love guys going through there. They seem to add,
1:50:18
Speaker 2: you know, a little bit extra to to what they're
1:50:22
Speaker 2: what they're bringing here, and I think that's kind of
1:50:25
Speaker 2: to a degree, kind of what's played through with with Manaia.
1:50:29
Speaker 2: He's kept the velocity to a much more reasonable perspective.
1:50:33
Speaker 2: He's in the it's still in the low nineties, but
1:50:35
Speaker 2: not where he had been in kind of previous seasons.
1:50:39
Speaker 2: But it's just so hard to look past that that
1:50:41
Speaker 2: Baba being so ridiculously low over that time frame. So
1:50:46
Speaker 2: I look at him and say, it's probably that top
1:50:48
Speaker 2: thirty for me. I think he's probably on that forty
1:50:51
Speaker 2: forty five for me, where I still I still like him,
1:50:55
Speaker 2: I still invested him, but I still have enough red
1:50:59
Speaker 2: flag where I feel like he's not for me to
1:51:02
Speaker 2: be top thirty, you gotta be plugging play, and I'm
1:51:05
Speaker 2: I don't know that I'm confident in Mania plugging and playing.
1:51:08
Speaker 2: Like when he's running hot like this, yeah, you're doing it.
1:51:11
Speaker 2: But I over the course of the season, I there's
1:51:13
Speaker 2: gonna be like those times that I go to those matchups,
1:51:15
Speaker 2: he's like, here he goes against you know, the Atlanta offense,
1:51:19
Speaker 2: the good Atlanta offense, not what we've seen right now.
1:51:22
Speaker 2: He's going up in in incoers or you know something
1:51:25
Speaker 2: like that. You're like, man, what's gonna happen? So I
1:51:28
Speaker 2: still like him. I still think he's got a lot
1:51:30
Speaker 2: of potential, and he's always and he's just feel like
1:51:32
Speaker 2: he's kind of found his spot. And if he's if
1:51:36
Speaker 2: he stays in New York, I'm probably giving him a bump.
1:51:39
Speaker 2: If he goes elsewhere, I'm ticking him down. And that's
1:51:42
Speaker 2: solely because of that one I'm called free agency fantasy
1:51:45
Speaker 2: bump that if he signs a decent contract and you
1:51:48
Speaker 2: go somewhere else, I think expectations are gonna rise beyond
1:51:53
Speaker 2: what I'm willing to pay. If he stays in New
1:51:55
Speaker 2: York kind of set signs under the raidar just six around.
1:51:58
Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna get that that bump, and
1:52:00
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be right in the range
1:52:01
Speaker 2: that I'd be happy to take him. So I'm fifty
1:52:04
Speaker 2: to fifty on Manaya. I've got a lot of good things.
1:52:06
Speaker 2: I got one bad thing. It evens out that he's
1:52:10
Speaker 2: still a pretty useful pitcher. But I think I just
1:52:12
Speaker 2: heard that I won't own him next year in any
1:52:14
Speaker 2: of our leagues.
1:52:16
Speaker 1: No, not in ours, But I mean we're not far off,
1:52:19
Speaker 1: like we're in the roughly the same range. So that
1:52:21
Speaker 1: does make me feel a little bit better overall that
1:52:23
Speaker 1: like I'm not overrating him because yeah, I think it's
1:52:28
Speaker 1: also a little bit of like our view on pitching,
1:52:30
Speaker 1: Like I think my window is a little bit smaller
1:52:35
Speaker 1: than yours, Like I'm usually looking out like next month
1:52:38
Speaker 1: as opposed to I think you look a little bit
1:52:40
Speaker 1: more holistically for the season. So I think that's where
1:52:43
Speaker 1: that variation is probably kicking in. Yep, all right, We're
1:52:47
Speaker 1: going to move on to a couple of relievers. So
1:52:49
Speaker 1: the first one here is maybe like the most surprising
1:52:54
Speaker 1: value that you can find when you're kind of scrolling
1:52:56
Speaker 1: through our player raider on ras Bull. I bet lots
1:53:00
Speaker 1: of people you don't even know who this is that
1:53:02
Speaker 1: think that he's made up. He's been worth eleven and
1:53:04
Speaker 1: a half dollars this year in a standard twelve team league.
1:53:07
Speaker 1: That is Tyler Holton of the Detroit Tigers, as he's
1:53:10
Speaker 1: doing his best like Andrew Miller slash Ryan Yarborough impression.
1:53:16
Speaker 1: I mean, the strikeouts aren't there like Andrew Miller, but
1:53:19
Speaker 1: like he's been an untouchable southpaw as he's started games,
1:53:24
Speaker 1: he's played matchups in middle relief. He's done like semi
1:53:28
Speaker 1: bulk role he's been closing games, and a lot of
1:53:33
Speaker 1: this value has been carried on the back of a
1:53:35
Speaker 1: brilliant second half when he's put up a zero point
1:53:38
Speaker 1: four to seven ERA over thirty eight innings after a
1:53:42
Speaker 1: pretty solid three thirty five eray over his first fifty
1:53:46
Speaker 1: one innings. Like I said, he's more like the Ryan
1:53:49
Speaker 1: Yarborough mold in terms of the strikeouts, but the second
1:53:52
Speaker 1: half strikeouts have started to materialize a little bit more
1:53:54
Speaker 1: seven point three K nine versus a six point nine
1:53:57
Speaker 1: in the first half. Also, it's just Stu walking players.
1:54:01
Speaker 1: He was just under two a one point nine walk
1:54:04
Speaker 1: per nine in the first half and now it's under
1:54:07
Speaker 1: one with a point nine walk nine in the second half.
1:54:12
Speaker 1: What do you do with players like this? Because I
1:54:14
Speaker 1: think we're gonna be seeing more and more of them
1:54:16
Speaker 1: coming over the years here. As you know, pitching has
1:54:19
Speaker 1: gotten even more wild wild West than it was when
1:54:23
Speaker 1: Ryan Yarborough and Ryan Stanek were around for the Rays.
1:54:27
Speaker 1: Are you targeting a player like Tyl Holton who he's
1:54:31
Speaker 1: this year picked up a lot of that win A
1:54:33
Speaker 1: lot of that value is also because he's got seven
1:54:36
Speaker 1: wins and eight saves, so like he's picking up a
1:54:40
Speaker 1: little bit of both. But because of the leverage that
1:54:42
Speaker 1: he's throwing, he could do this again next year. So
1:54:47
Speaker 1: are you investing or is this more of like an
1:54:50
Speaker 1: end of a draft sort of dart throw for you
1:54:52
Speaker 1: or do you never touch these type of players? Yeah?
1:54:55
Speaker 2: I think this is one of those ones where I'm
1:54:57
Speaker 2: playing the league like, if the lead he's in on him,
1:55:01
Speaker 2: I'm shipping him out and I'm getting some value. If
1:55:04
Speaker 2: the league's not into that kind of profile, I'm grabbing
1:55:07
Speaker 2: it a little before the end of the draft. Because
1:55:09
Speaker 2: you're absolutely right, Holten here has just been like I
1:55:12
Speaker 2: got a J. Hinch, just thrusting him into like every
1:55:15
Speaker 2: possible firestorm. And it's like it's like he's using him
1:55:19
Speaker 2: as his closer, the way we hate when closers are used. Right,
1:55:22
Speaker 2: He's literally taking him in every spot where he needs him. Like,
1:55:25
Speaker 2: guy's walked three batters since the beginning of August, and
1:55:31
Speaker 2: that's pretty good. And it's not that he's not pitched
1:55:35
Speaker 2: like he's he's got quite a few innings. Uh at
1:55:38
Speaker 2: that point, he's not He's not like a thrown up
1:55:42
Speaker 2: there kind of guy. Uh. And I also think, you know,
1:55:44
Speaker 2: folks are gonna look at his profile and actually downgrade
1:55:47
Speaker 2: him because it was Babe, I'm gonna speak out of
1:55:48
Speaker 2: both sides of my mouth after manaia here because he's
1:55:51
Speaker 2: got like a two twelve I think because I was
1:55:52
Speaker 2: looking Babe over the season, but historically from a from
1:55:57
Speaker 2: a reliever perspective, that's much more maintainable than what you'd
1:56:01
Speaker 2: have as starter, and so that's actually it's a little
1:56:03
Speaker 2: better in his career, but not that much better. So
1:56:07
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of value here because I
1:56:09
Speaker 2: don't see any reason why he's not going to be
1:56:11
Speaker 2: used the exact same way next year, and since this
1:56:14
Speaker 2: has only happened like really the second half last few months,
1:56:19
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be the same guy. And
1:56:23
Speaker 2: if you if he could win ten games and save
1:56:25
Speaker 2: ten games more more next year, and with the kind
1:56:30
Speaker 2: of uncertainty and the bullpens things like that, I really
1:56:32
Speaker 2: really like Holton here. Doesn't have a strikeouts, I get it,
1:56:36
Speaker 2: but from a reliever perspective, that's actually a lot easier
1:56:39
Speaker 2: to make up with just another random reliever or just
1:56:43
Speaker 2: riding the wire with it. So I'm really liking Holton
1:56:47
Speaker 2: a lot more than I'd expect but I'm going to
1:56:50
Speaker 2: go back if somebody else, like is really investing in here,
1:56:53
Speaker 2: the fragility of relievers. If I'm getting something out of
1:56:58
Speaker 2: him that I see as a value from my team,
1:57:00
Speaker 2: I'm letting that go. But I don't think people are
1:57:03
Speaker 2: gonna be putting value on Holton going in to draft
1:57:07
Speaker 2: next year. I just don't think they saw what happened
1:57:09
Speaker 2: and there. I don't think they're gonna see it becau
1:57:11
Speaker 2: They're not gonna name them as a closer or anything
1:57:13
Speaker 2: like that. So yeah, I like Tyler Holton.
1:57:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I do too, and especially because that
1:57:20
Speaker 1: closer situation I think is always going to be fluid
1:57:22
Speaker 1: in Detroit under a J. Hinch. I mean, I guess
1:57:25
Speaker 1: there's maybe a possible I don't actually think there's a
1:57:27
Speaker 1: big name to sign this offseason, but this would be
1:57:30
Speaker 1: a good landing spot for somebody.
1:57:32
Speaker 2: But Scott is the one I'd be worried about.
1:57:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true, But I mean, especially given that Tanner,
1:57:39
Speaker 1: Scott's left handed, and if anything, maybe that helps Holton
1:57:42
Speaker 1: get more win opportunities because you know, he maybe they
1:57:46
Speaker 1: stretch him out into like a bulk roll or something.
1:57:48
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think he's gonna fly under radars. And
1:57:51
Speaker 1: if they don't bring in any other relievers in Detroit,
1:57:54
Speaker 1: fully Jason Foley will probably walk in with the closer label,
1:57:59
Speaker 1: but Likelton could sneakily kind of work his way to
1:58:03
Speaker 1: ten saves and that makes a world of difference nowadays
1:58:06
Speaker 1: in our fantasy game. Absolutely, Okay, next guy is this
1:58:13
Speaker 1: is so ridiculous. I mean, I didn't think he would
1:58:16
Speaker 1: ever like round into this, but then as soon as
1:58:18
Speaker 1: he went to the Dodgers, it was just like obviously
1:58:20
Speaker 1: too obvious that this was going to happen. That is
1:58:23
Speaker 1: Michael Kopek, who with the Chicago White Sox was up
1:58:28
Speaker 1: to his same old self to begin the season. And
1:58:32
Speaker 1: again this isn't exactly like a first half second half
1:58:35
Speaker 1: because the trade like Kakuchi, but I think it's pretty telling.
1:58:39
Speaker 1: And in the first half he put up a four
1:58:41
Speaker 1: to seventy four ERA over forty three and two thirds
1:58:45
Speaker 1: with nine saves and I don't see blown saves off
1:58:49
Speaker 1: the top, but uh it was about nine, so like
1:58:54
Speaker 1: it was bad. And since arriving in Tintltown with the Dodgers,
1:58:58
Speaker 1: he's been absolutely untouchable. Twenty four strikeouts to just eight
1:59:04
Speaker 1: walks after fifty nine against twenty four with the White
1:59:07
Speaker 1: Sox a point ninety five era over nineteen innings, four wins,
1:59:12
Speaker 1: four saves. How far up the close the rankings does
1:59:17
Speaker 1: Michael Kobec go for you next year as a Dodger.
1:59:24
Speaker 2: Not very far. And maybe maybe I'm off here, but
1:59:28
Speaker 2: like as I look under the profile, it's not any
1:59:31
Speaker 2: difference than what he did in Chicago. Maybe he's slightly
1:59:35
Speaker 2: but there's a decent amount of luck. Like he's been
1:59:37
Speaker 2: hit pretty hard, you know, from I think it's exit
1:59:41
Speaker 2: velocity since he's been with Dodgers has been in the
1:59:44
Speaker 2: low nineties, which is is not anything to write home about.
1:59:48
Speaker 2: As a reliever. You also have him kind of running
1:59:51
Speaker 2: up there with a very sexy one to sixty two babyp.
1:59:54
Speaker 2: I know, I just said relievers can maintain low, babebs,
1:59:57
Speaker 2: but that's low. That's low low. Low is a left
2:00:00
Speaker 2: on base at eighty six percent, which is like very high.
2:00:04
Speaker 2: Like he's he's been very lucky. His ex FIP is
2:00:07
Speaker 2: three thirty four compared to his era at point ninety five,
2:00:11
Speaker 2: and he's not keeping the ball on the ground, but
2:00:13
Speaker 2: yet he's not giving up a home run like all
2:00:17
Speaker 2: these things are just pointing to like train wreck waiting
2:00:19
Speaker 2: to happen. And I think that's who Kopec is. And
2:00:24
Speaker 2: so I think he's going to go way up draft
2:00:27
Speaker 2: boards because people are gonna think he's gonna be the closer,
2:00:30
Speaker 2: and then he's going to just swirl and flame and
2:00:36
Speaker 2: he's gonna just he's gonna Gokay, Craig Kimberrel on us
2:00:40
Speaker 2: at some point, And that is not a compliment. We're
2:00:43
Speaker 2: talking Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston, Craig Kimberl here. We're not talking
2:00:50
Speaker 2: the Atlantic, Craig Kimberrel here. So I don't know, am
2:00:54
Speaker 2: I too harsh on him? Are you? I know you're
2:00:56
Speaker 2: a white Sox homer and you just want to love him.
2:01:01
Speaker 2: Tell me where I'm a little too harsh on mister
2:01:04
Speaker 2: Kopek here.
2:01:04
Speaker 1: I think it's just also perfect because similar pictures to
2:01:08
Speaker 1: Michael Kopek number two, twenty twenty four, Craig Kimbrel.
2:01:14
Speaker 2: You would think I did my homework, but I'm just
2:01:16
Speaker 2: that good.
2:01:17
Speaker 1: It's also great that like we just I mean, I
2:01:21
Speaker 1: guess it was like an hour ago that we said this,
2:01:23
Speaker 1: that we were looking forward to never saying Craig Kimbrel again,
2:01:28
Speaker 1: and now we can't stop saying it, and but we're
2:01:30
Speaker 1: getting better. We're getting pretty dang good at it. I
2:01:32
Speaker 1: kind of want him to come back now. Yes, I
2:01:35
Speaker 1: think it's very fair. This is a type of player
2:01:38
Speaker 1: where I think it's really hard to evaluate them because
2:01:42
Speaker 1: the change in his control is real, Like you can
2:01:46
Speaker 1: see it when you're watching him, and especially given how
2:01:49
Speaker 1: much I watched him with Chicago and seeing him pitch
2:01:51
Speaker 1: with the Dodgers, there's a level of confidence and just
2:01:59
Speaker 1: he's been coached up, like the Dodgers know what they're
2:02:02
Speaker 1: doing with him, and I think that they've formed him
2:02:05
Speaker 1: into something that the White Sox could never instill in him,
2:02:08
Speaker 1: just based on the voices in the room. But because
2:02:11
Speaker 1: of that, I think a lot of this in terms
2:02:13
Speaker 1: of his approach, it is more of like a psychological
2:02:18
Speaker 1: thing in terms of like being able to stay locked
2:02:21
Speaker 1: in and find the zone and find his control, find
2:02:24
Speaker 1: that out pitch, just being able to execute. And so
2:02:29
Speaker 1: this is the type of player where honestly, it's gonna
2:02:31
Speaker 1: be great that he gets into the postseason so that
2:02:33
Speaker 1: you can kind of see how he does under these
2:02:36
Speaker 1: high pressure situations, and if he has a great twenty
2:02:39
Speaker 1: twenty four postseason, I will be I think investing in
2:02:43
Speaker 1: him in the draft table because even like with the
2:02:47
Speaker 1: Kimberl stuff, it can fall apart in a moment. But
2:02:51
Speaker 1: like we went through it in terms of like what
2:02:55
Speaker 1: Kimberl did when he was locked in over the first
2:02:59
Speaker 1: half of the season, when we were talking about him
2:03:01
Speaker 1: in the first half of the show, that when Copek
2:03:04
Speaker 1: is going like he is right now, it does work.
2:03:07
Speaker 1: As soon as you see any signs of faltering, you've
2:03:10
Speaker 1: got a bench him. Like you cannot be rolling him
2:03:12
Speaker 1: out consistently and hoping that he finds it. That like,
2:03:17
Speaker 1: and you look at kimberlell let me see what his
2:03:20
Speaker 1: value was on the Player Raider. It's going to be
2:03:23
Speaker 1: wonky because the era degraded so fast. But I mean,
2:03:27
Speaker 1: he picked up seven dollars worth of saves for you
2:03:30
Speaker 1: was a four and a half dollar player and our
2:03:34
Speaker 1: player Raider, which shows you what the era and whip did.
2:03:37
Speaker 1: But if you banked those twenty three saves while he
2:03:40
Speaker 1: was rolling, you picked up, you know, seven dollars worth
2:03:43
Speaker 1: of value out Kimberle given where he was, that's pretty
2:03:46
Speaker 1: valuable and so I think if you can do the
2:03:48
Speaker 1: same thing with Coopec that I don't think I can
2:03:51
Speaker 1: push him into like top ten closers, but I think
2:03:53
Speaker 1: I can give him around like twelve ish probably, like
2:03:58
Speaker 1: in terms of my rankings, I don't know where he'll
2:03:59
Speaker 1: go and drafts, but if that is where he settles,
2:04:02
Speaker 1: that's about where kim Berle settled this year. I would
2:04:05
Speaker 1: take dart throws at that, especially given where you're at
2:04:09
Speaker 1: in the draft, and like, relievers can be such a
2:04:11
Speaker 1: crapshoot that the upside for Copec, I think, is what's
2:04:15
Speaker 1: going to keep me coming back to him.
2:04:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's tough. I just keep looking at so
2:04:20
Speaker 2: his his pitch mix. I know how much you've looked
2:04:23
Speaker 2: at Coppet's pitch mix here, but it is, uh, it's
2:04:25
Speaker 2: something to behold. There's only qualified relievers this year. There's
2:04:32
Speaker 2: only three guys who used the fastball more Tim Hill,
2:04:37
Speaker 2: which I'm not right home about. But Tim Hill throws
2:04:39
Speaker 2: at ninety five percent of the time. So how he's
2:04:42
Speaker 2: still the majors doing that. I don't know. Roberts Warez,
2:04:46
Speaker 2: who's definitely been rocky. These guys had kind of figured
2:04:48
Speaker 2: him out. This guy is pretty good in Cleveland, Emmanuel
2:04:51
Speaker 2: class A and then Michael Kopek and then literally the
2:04:55
Speaker 2: who's who of I don't know who after that. And
2:04:59
Speaker 2: but what we're is that class A, like he can
2:05:02
Speaker 2: do that because he's just so good. First of all,
2:05:04
Speaker 2: he's throwing almost one hundred and then he's got that
2:05:07
Speaker 2: nasty slider. Kopek is throat. He does have a decent slider,
2:05:12
Speaker 2: but it's not it's not the same thing. And so
2:05:15
Speaker 2: again I worry that people are just gonna sit there
2:05:17
Speaker 2: on that fastball and just crank it out. So but
2:05:21
Speaker 2: to your point, I don't know if I gets twelve
2:05:24
Speaker 2: on the relief for anchors, but like fifteen sixteen, because
2:05:26
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, like once you get
2:05:28
Speaker 2: to like twenty, they're not even closers, like and so
2:05:31
Speaker 2: like you are talking about the last like the back third,
2:05:34
Speaker 2: back quarter of closers here with Kopek, and if he
2:05:38
Speaker 2: has a guaranteed job, like it's hard not to to
2:05:41
Speaker 2: to take a gamble on that. It's kind of like
2:05:43
Speaker 2: Clay Holmost for the Yankees, like you got the job,
2:05:45
Speaker 2: but like I don't feel good about doing it. That's
2:05:49
Speaker 2: again that's Craig kimberl uh So, yeah, it's it's gonna
2:05:54
Speaker 2: be interesting next year to see what what takes place
2:05:55
Speaker 2: with Copek and knowing the Dodgers, they're gonna go out
2:05:59
Speaker 2: and sign somebody or trade for somebody to make this
2:06:01
Speaker 2: whole conversation.
2:06:02
Speaker 1: Worthless possibly or moving back into the rotation.
2:06:05
Speaker 2: Okay, that'll work.
2:06:07
Speaker 1: Well yeah, okay, Well it's been a great pod that
2:06:11
Speaker 1: I think those are some great picks for twenty twenty
2:06:14
Speaker 1: four second half breakouts that we can consider going to
2:06:16
Speaker 1: twenty five. So if you've got any others to consider,
2:06:20
Speaker 1: certainly reach out to us and email us at cards
2:06:24
Speaker 1: Categories at gmail dot com, or find us on Twitter
2:06:28
Speaker 1: at cards categories and brew Let people know where they
2:06:31
Speaker 1: can find you on socials and read your work.
2:06:34
Speaker 2: Yep, find me over Twitter slash exit Jaybrewer one seven,
2:06:38
Speaker 2: find me on the weekends for a raz wall doing
2:06:40
Speaker 2: hitter profiles one hundred hitter rankings. So we got a
2:06:43
Speaker 2: few more weeks left of those articles before we hit
2:06:45
Speaker 2: the off season, So come on out, disagree in the comments,
2:06:48
Speaker 2: argue with us, or tell us that we're brilliant. Either way,
2:06:51
Speaker 2: we're glad to see you there so coolly. Where can
2:06:53
Speaker 2: folks find you?
2:06:54
Speaker 1: Yes, I've got my final waiver wire piece coming up
2:06:57
Speaker 1: this weekend, and yeah we'll get into some matchups for
2:07:01
Speaker 1: the last week, especially that will be running on ras
2:07:04
Speaker 1: Ball on Saturday. You can find me on Twitter slash
2:07:08
Speaker 1: x and blue Sky at in Cool seven. If you're
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Speaker 1: looking for any cool merchandise from cards and categories, we've
2:07:15
Speaker 1: got a link down in the show notes where you
2:07:17
Speaker 1: can get hats, t shirts, baby onesies, mugs, all sorts
2:07:21
Speaker 1: of great stuff. We'll have to think about who we
2:07:24
Speaker 1: are going to memorialize with a T shirt this year
2:07:27
Speaker 1: after we did Chris Martin last year, so keep that
2:07:30
Speaker 1: in mind coming over the next few weeks. And if
2:07:33
Speaker 1: you have enjoyed the podcast and stuck around with us
2:07:36
Speaker 1: for over two hours at this point, certainly rate review
2:07:40
Speaker 1: us wherever that you're listening to us, We would greatly
2:07:44
Speaker 1: appreciate it and we will see you same time, same
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Speaker 1: place next week. Thanks everybody. E